• Sara Hayat scoured industry sources near and far to find a fill that would give the Bevel a bit of bounce while ensuring its cushions would retain their pebble-like shape. Indeed, each velvet-upholstered seat cradles a person perfectly. As it should: It takes the team about a month to hand-stitch this low-slung belted beauty. $28,495

  • Minotti who passed away in August, played with the idea of balance in the Solid Steel coffee table, despite the heavy-metal inference of its moniker. Party-ready glossy and mirrored finishes belie the architectural geometry of the streamlined, staggered slabs. Even with its fashion-forward feel (or backward: the materials reference 1970s glamour), it evokes an unflinchingly Bauhaus sensibility. Price upon request

  • Astraeus Clarke found inspiration in N.Y.C. The Roebling table lamp takes its form, albeit loosely, from the Brooklyn Bridge and its name from the bridge’s engineers, John A. Roebling and his wife, Emma. The lamp’s deep-green marble pillars support a gable-shaped top that hides the light source. But there’s a twist: That top segment pivots 360 degrees, allowing the user to direct illumination as needed. $12,500

  • New Ravenna. Duo, a waterjet mosaic, features boxy, mustard-toned cross-stitches that punctuate a large, dark grid over elegant marble with green veining. The coastal Virginia–based company replicates the texture of stone that has been well-worn by salt air, ensuring your kitchen, bath, or patio looks suitably lived-in. $229 per square foot

  • Source: robbreport.com

    Apache is functioning normally

    Apache is functioning normally

    Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won’t care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coincides with the expected drop in inflation.  More important than Powell’s message during the press conference was the takeaway from the Fed’s dot plot.  The market was positioned for this, but subsequent trading suggests “not positioned enough.”  Domestic traders began shifting their selling focus away from the shortest end of the yield curve this morning.  This is their way of acquiescing to the idea that the Fed will attempt to keep rates high for as long as possible (or as long as it takes for inflation to come back to target levels). 

    Now for the plot twist: virtually all of the first paragraph was copied and pasted from last September’s post-Fed Thursday (here’s the link to the original).  Pretty spooky…

    In the present day example, we have the same sort of international follow-through in the overnight session following a “higher for longer” nudge from the Fed, but we also have stronger jobless claims data and a higher inflation reading inside the Philly Fed data (of the two, the labor market data is the bigger mover). 

    Comparing the present example to the big picture, we find similarities and differences.  In both cases, the Fed day reaction represented a technical breakout of a recently achieved high yield:

    But the 2022 bond market was in a much greater state of flux.  The yield curve had only recently inverted and 2s had been selling off faster and faster compared to 10s.  Contrast that to 2023 where 2s have been far more sideways compared to 10s.  While it can take months, the stabilization of a curve inversion trend is another step toward an eventual rate reversal.  

    The scary caveat is that some past examples show multiple head fakes back toward an un-inverted curve before it finally takes.  The following chart shows those head fakes (note, this is 10s vs 1s as opposed to 10s vs 2s, due to better historical data availability in 1yr Treasuries). 

    Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com