Sales of newly built single-family homes in the United States soared in March despite mortgage rates remaining elevated that month.
New home sales, which make up about 10% of the market, jumped 8.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to government figures released Tuesday. That trounced the 670,000 rate projected by economists, according to a FactSet poll, and was the strongest monthly increase since December 2022.
Sales of new homes increased across the country last month, rising the most in the Northeast region by a robust 27.8% from February.
Meanwhile, sales of existing homes, which make up the vast majority of the housing market, fell 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the sharpest drop in more than a year, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
Housing market poised to remain difficult
The broader US housing market is expected to remain tough for Americans, with mortgage rates poised to stay well above 6% this year, economists say. The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and the central bank isn’t expected to cut interest rates anytime soon. A persistent undersupply of housing also remains a key pressure point in the market, contributing to low affordability.
Housing inventory has improved in recent months, but supply still isn’t keeping up with demand. This means homebuyers have limited options as some homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to hike rates in 2022 largely prefer to not sell their homes.
“Despite high prices and mortgage rates, homebuyers have limited options on the resale market, although resale inventories have improved some over the course of this year,” Gregg Logan, managing director at RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, said in a note Tuesday.
“The willingness of the major homebuilders to utilize incentives such as price reductions, mortgage rate buy-downs and paying buyers closings costs continue to support a healthy pace of new home sales,” he added.
A stalled housing market recovery?
The housing market began the year with some momentum as home sales surged, homebuilder sentiment perked up and inventory levels climbed, but now it seems to have fizzled out.
In addition to the March drop in existing home sales, residential construction of single-family homes also fell that month, declining 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units, according to Commerce Department data released earlier this month. Residential construction fell throughout the country except in the West. Meanwhile, building permits for future construction tumbled 3.7% in March to a five-month low.
Data from the National Association of Home Builders showed that 22% of builders cut homes prices in April, down from 24% in March. Meanwhile, the share of builders who offered a sales incentive edged lower to 57% in April from 60% in March. Sentiment among homebuilders in America held steady in April, NAHB said.
“April’s flat reading suggests potential for demand growth is there, but buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed,” NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz, said in a release.
This story has been updated with additional context.
STRASBURG — When showing a house to clients, Realtor Amy Jett makes sure they see a home.
Whether it’s by helping buyers visualize where they’ll place the family Christmas tree or figure out what color to paint their front door, knowing today’s popular home trends allows Jett to help her buyers make the most informed decisions when buying their dream home.
“For me, it’s about a house that could become your home in a neighborhood that you love,” Jett said. “But maybe it has a really great basement, but it might feel a little too dark. Knowing how to transform a space from dark to light with something as simple as paint, it’s all of a sudden a great party space. You could put in a bar and suddenly everyone’s watching football at your house.”
Helping a client find a home is much more than signing on the dotted line and passing off the keys, Jett said. It’s about how her clients can use the space — whether it’s a young couple wanting to grow their family or for the crafter seeking a corner to create in.
“Clients will come to you and they will tell you the basics of what they need,” Jett said. “You want to have enough knowledge about what’s trending and popular so you can look for that perfect property that when they walk in they can call it home.”
Jett said trends come and go. Similar to seeing a fashionable haircut on one person and then on a hundred, house trends ebb and flow.
“Buying a home is the biggest investment you’re going to ever make,” she said. “You’re spending more money on that than most anything else that you’re ever going to spend money on so you want to make it perfect, or pretty close to it.”
To be able to do that, Jett said today’s buyers are looking for move-in-ready homes, which also happens to one of the biggest trends of the year. Gone are the days of purchasing homes that need massive renovations. Rather, buyers are seeking homes that need minimal changes, such as a fresh coat of paint on an accent wall or new knobs on bathroom cabinets.
Colors
As for what colors are attracting buyers right now, Jett said shades of blue are popular for inside and outside the home.
“Continental blue is becoming popular for outdoor use,” Jett said. “It’s a beautiful deep blue with a gray undertone. You can add a pop of burgundy as an accent with a bright white trim.”
Shades of blue are becoming a staple in kitchens. Jett followed the trend by updating her kitchen cabinets.
“There are different ways to make a room feel based on something as simple as what colors and where you place them. It doesn’t have to be white or gray walls. It can be an accent color — paint is inexpensive and something easy to change over time.”
Another popular exterior color palette Jett is seeing this year are muted grays, with dark wood or accent colors. It’s not quite black, she said, but almost so. Again, with a pop of white.
Dark exterior homes such as gray with black trim and a stone accent or a dark brown door, are starting to make a comeback throughout the Valley.
Cozy spaces
Inside the home, Jett said buyers are seeking rooms that feel cozy, like a reading nook in a corner of a room that can be used dual-purposely, such as an office, guest room or playroom.
“People are now starting to come out of working from home, back into working on site. Not everyone needs a dedicated office anymore.”
Wallpaper
Also in the interior, Jett said she’s noticed while showing homes to buyers, that heavier curtains are returning as well as the use of wallpaper.
“It’s so easy to use now because it’s all peel and stick,” she said. “You don’t have to use all that glue because it goes on and off easily.”
Jett, who loves a bold wallpaper statement, said she enjoys sharing her ideas with buyers who may see a blank wall, where she may see an accent wall with endless possibilities.
“When you walk into a home, it’s a blank slate,” she said. “By imagining the possibilities, such as a bright, bold, dark wallpaper with flowers, I’m helping them imagine what they could do to create their ideal space.”
Homeowners making minimal changes are updating their kitchen and bathrooms with color-appropriate appliances, fixtures, flooring and countertops as well as fresh coats of paint on cabinets.
“For several years everything was gray,” Jett said. “It’s starting to brighten up with pops of color. Lighter flooring and countertops, but having darker appliances.”
Outdoor features
Other exterior trends Jett is seeing are outdoor living spaces, impeccable views and water features.
“Gurgling water while they’re reading their book and enjoying the birds singing,” she said.
Welcoming a new addition to the family is an exciting and joyous occasion, and preparing a nursery is often one of the most anticipated tasks for expectant parents. The nursery is not just a room; it’s a sanctuary where your little one will spend countless hours sleeping, playing, and growing during their formative years. Curating the perfect nursery involves thoughtful consideration of both functionality and aesthetics. Check out these nursery decor ideas from experts to see curated recommendations.
Nursery decor: Tips and tricks to test out
“A nursery should spark calm,” Taylor Clarke, mom and founder of Amborella Organics seed-bearing lollipops. “We do this with earth-toned colors, living plants, and objects like a star-shaped plush that remind us how magical this time of life is.” As we dive into other expert opinions on curating the perfect nursery, Clarke reminds us to not forget the magic of this stage of life.
Establish your vision
Before diving into decorating, take some time to envision the atmosphere you want to create. Consider themes, color schemes, and overall ambiance. When it comes to a theme or color palette, Bowy Lou recommends choosing something that resonates with you. “Whether it’s a nature-inspired theme, a classic color scheme, or a whimsical motif, this will guide your choices in furniture, decorations, and textiles,” the Bowy Lou team recommends. “Additionally, if you’re looking to save money, you might be able to keep an eye out on online reselling platforms such as Facebook Marketplace or thrift shops to begin gathering or collecting items that meet your aesthetic.”
Choose a calming color palette and utilize natural materials
Selecting the right color palette sets the tone for the entire room. “Opt for soft, neutral hues like pastel blues, greens, creams, light grays, or gentle yellows to create a calming atmosphere conducive to relaxation, sleep, and independent play,” Karri Bowen-Poole, founder and CEO of Smart Playrooms and Project Playroom recommends.
Ashley Morrisey with Western Sky Photography recommends considering your preferences when selecting a color palette. “You may have heard there are colors that make a room bright or enhance specific feelings, so it would make sense to choose those that add to the calm, soothing environment you want,” Morrisey begins, “but, it’s equally as true that choosing colors you love will help make the room a space you’ll enjoy spending lots of time in with your baby, and let’s be honest, you’ve got a lot of future diaper changes, feedings, play times, and bedtimes in this room.”
Embrace nature-inspired elements as well, to bring an element of texture to the room. “Incorporating furniture and decor made from natural materials like wood and cotton will evoke a sense of warmth and comfort while also minimizing exposure to harsh chemicals,” Bowen-Poole suggests. Consider adding potted plants or a small indoor garden to purify the air and further create a calming, nature-inspired environment.
Frankie Wallace, owner of LoveFrankieArt.com, echoes the importance of a balance between colors and natural elements. “Opt for soft, neutral colors such as taupe or soft grey, and choose patterns that are subtle and gentle, like small polka dots, stripes, or delicate floral prints. These create a serene atmosphere without overwhelming your baby’s delicate senses, and are also calming for parents too,” Wallace notes. “Nature-inspired accents like potted plants, botanical prints, or nature-themed wall decals are also great to incorporate. Nature has a calming effect and can help create a peaceful atmosphere in the nursery.”
Invest in quality furniture
Key furniture pieces like a crib, changing table, and storage units are essential for a functional nursery. “Incorporating vintage or heirloom pieces such as a solid wood dresser passed down from a relative, or one with a marble top discovered at an antique shop will have lasting design power over many store-bought dressers,” Darcy Oliver, founder of Darcy Oliver Design recommends. “The dresser can also act as a changing station for your baby, so be mindful of a size that could accommodate a changing pad.”
Convertible furniture, such as cribs that transform into toddler beds, offers long-term value and versatility. “Searching for the perfect crib may seem like a daunting task, but I recommend buying this item new or fairly new for safety reasons,” Oliver recommends.
Prioritize safety
Safety should be a top priority when designing a nursery. Ensure that furniture meets safety standards, anchor heavy items to the wall to prevent tipping, and eliminate any potential hazards such as loose cords or small objects that could pose a choking risk.
A comfortable crib mattress and soft, breathable bedding are essential for promoting safe and restful sleep. Choose bedding made from organic materials and avoid heavy blankets or pillows, as they can increase the risk of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS).
Add personal touches
Infuse the nursery with personal touches that reflect your style and values, like name-centric decor. Name decor is also an easy way to make the room feel personalized. “Monogramming the space above your baby’s bed is a popular design concept. The monogram makes their room even more personalized and their own,” Sara from Lizz and Roo notes. “Similar to a monogram, framing their name above their bed is a great personalization to have for them to make their room their own.”
“I remember when my son was about to be born – all of a sudden I wanted to clean and organize my house and create the perfect nursery. I posted this random information on Facebook, and immediately a consensus was formed: I was “nesting,” Crystal Waddell, president of Collage and Wood shares.
“Over the years, as my company has grown, we serve mothers all over the world who want to personalize the walls for their new baby. And when I say I get it, you now know, I totally get it. Think custom lettering, themed wooden cutouts, or your baby’s name in a giant script font, these items create that perfect personalized space for your baby and help you meet your nesting needs.”
Consider sensory stimulation
Stimulate your baby’s senses with visually engaging elements like mobiles, wall decals, and textured rugs. Soft lighting, such as dimmable lamps or string lights, creates a cozy atmosphere conducive to relaxation.
Leave room to grow
Remember that your baby will grow quickly, and their needs will evolve over time. “If the nursery will eventually morph into your child’s room, having the flexibility to change the room into the next stage is key,” Sandra Gordon, owner of Baby Products Mom, notes. “That next stage could be in a year or so when your baby-turned-toddler-turned-preschooler starts to have an opinion. Ideally, for a convertible nursery, you should be able to lift anything babyish, such as artwork, out of the room. In other words, keep babyish items off permanent surfaces, such as pink or blue walls or carpets. But if the room will be a dedicated nursery for years to come (for your next babies), go ahead and baby-ify all you want.”
Fariha Nasir, with Pennies for a Fortune, echoes the sentiment of keeping the future in mind. “Focus on sourcing high-quality pieces that will grow with the child. Same with seating – furniture that’s marketed as nursery furniture like rockers and gliders isn’t always great quality. Getting a stylish yet comfortable armchair with a separate ottoman will provide the same comfort and functionality,” Nasir shares. “That nursing chair can later be part of a reading corner for the room in the future.”
Incorporate functionality into your nursery decor
Babies come with a lot of stuff, from diapers and clothes to toys and books. Maximize storage space with bins, baskets, shelves, and closets to keep essentials organized and easily accessible. “In small spaces, floor space is a precious commodity so get things off the floor wherever you can,” Lisa Janvrin, with Janvrin and Co, suggests. “This means installing storage and lighting on the walls. There are tons of options for floating bookshelves, side tables, and plug-in wall sconces that are adorable and functional.”
In terms of nap and nighttime routines, nightlights or dimmers can also help create a soothing atmosphere when darkness is important, Kristeen Waddell notes. “Lack of lighting is everything. Invest in blackout curtains to regulate light and promote better sleep, especially during daytime naps. However, you will want a nice overhead light for play, too,” Waddell shares.
Choose soft flooring options
Opt for soft flooring materials like carpet or area rugs to provide a comfortable and safe surface for your baby to crawl and play. “A soft rug is a must-have for tummy time and a cozy place for baby to explore the world,” Caitlin De Lay notes. “Functional pieces will grow with your child and create a calming space to bring the baby home; plus, they can all double as design accents.” Choose rugs with low pile or natural fibers that are easy to clean and hypoallergenic to minimize the risk of allergies.
Design a nursing nook
“There needs to be comfortable seating for nursing a baby, with a footstool,” Medina King, creative director of MK Kids Interiors says. “This could be in the form of a stylish rocker or a comfortable armchair with a pouffe. Parents will spend a lot of time nursing and comforting babies in the early days of their lives, so it’s important to design it around the needs and comfort of the family and parents taking care of the baby.”
Lucy Bowman, with LucyJoHome.com, agrees, noting the importance of paying the nursery proper attention. “Nurseries are a place of rest and sweet memories and deserve attention,” Bowman shares. “The perfect nursery will have a comfortable and beautiful chair for parent and child to bond.”
Don’t be afraid to get creative with nursery decor ideas
Photographer, Kristal Bean, recommends adding an accent wall for a creative touch. “You’re not limited to just a different color for an accent wall — there are endless gorgeous wallpaper and large wall decal options, too,” Bean shares. “This is a simple way to customize the nursery, and you can probably get it done over a weekend. If you’ve already fallen in love with the wall color in your baby’s room, but you’re dying to add a little something extra to the space, wallpaper on the ceiling is an unforgettable touch.”
Savanna Nave, owner of SavannaBrooke.com, reminds to not forget flair and interest. “Add interest and character by either using wallpaper, a wall treatment (board & batten), patterned curtains, or a statement rug. All of these areas are a great way to incorporate color and a fun pattern,” Nave suggests. “When adding flair, stick to your style while also making the room baby-friendly and functional. If your style is boho, incorporate some of those features into the room.”
Consider soundproofing as part of your nursery decor
Minimize disruptions and create a peaceful environment for both you and your baby by soundproofing the nursery. Install heavy curtains or sound-absorbing panels to dampen outside noise, and consider using a white noise machine to mask any sudden sounds that could disturb your baby’s sleep.
Crafting a sanctuary for you and your little one
“As the parent, you will be spending a lot of time in that room with your baby”, Nina Spears, co-founder and editor-in-chief of baby chick, explains. “In the nursery, there needs to be a designated space for the baby to sleep, to feed, and to be changed. But, make a space in the room where you can rest with the baby and enjoy, too. This room should be a space that you love, it brings you joy and makes you feel calm. Your baby won’t care what it looks like, so make it functional and comfortable for you too.”
Curating and creating the perfect nursery is a labor of love that involves careful planning, creativity, and attention to detail. By following these guidelines and infusing your unique style and personality into the design, you can create a serene sanctuary where your little one can thrive and flourish. After all, there’s nothing more rewarding than seeing your baby surrounded by a space that is as beautiful and nurturing as they are.
Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast, where we answer your real-world money questions. In this episode:
Learn how scammers deceive victims by using AI for voice cloning and learn how you can protect yourself from other AI-related fraud.
How can you protect yourself from AI-driven scams that target your finances?
What new scams are happening as technology advances?
Hosts Sean Pyles and Sara Rathner discuss the alarming use of AI in scams and the future of fraud to help you understand how to safeguard your personal security. They begin with a discussion of AI-driven voice scams, with tips and tricks on recognizing potential fraud, staying informed about scam tactics, and the importance of open discussion to empower against scammer tactics.
Then, scam expert Bob Sullivan, author of “Stop Getting Ripped Off” and host of the podcast The Perfect Scam, joins Sean to discuss the broader implications of AI technology in scams. They discuss the potential for AI to personalize phishing attacks, the ease of creating convincing fake audio, and the importance of skepticism in the face of unexpected calls. Plus: the need for technology companies to embed safeguards, the role of societal learning in approaching unexpected calls, and the importance of verifying any financial requests you receive.
Check out this episode on your favorite podcast platform, including:
NerdWallet stories related to this episode:
Episode transcript
This transcript was generated from podcast audio by an AI tool.
Sean Pyles:
We already know that our robot overlords are coming, but in the meantime, while they plot, their artificial intelligence skills are being put to use by bad actors all over the world, utilizing technology to bilk people out of their money. That includes using AI to copy someone’s voice and demand ransom for a non-existent kidnapping.
Jennifer DeStefano:
I had a full conversation with my daughter. It was interactive. There was no pause. There was no break. There was nothing that would lead me to believe that it wasn’t her. So when the mom that stepped outside called 911, she came back in and she said, “Hey, 911 tipped me off that there’s a scam where they use AI and they can replicate anyone’s voice.” I didn’t believe it. It gave me hope, but I didn’t believe it.
Sean Pyles:
Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money Podcast. I’m Sean Pyles.
Sara Rathner:
And I’m Sara Rathner. And Sean, that clip is as creepy as it gets.
Sean Pyles:
It is, and the story we’re going to hear today is as creepy and as awful as it gets as we wrap up our Nerdy deep dive into scams and identity theft and how to protect yourself from all of it so you don’t lose your life savings. Today we’re going to examine the future of the scam industry and the expanding role of AI.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah, I have to say, and I know you’ve touched on this in several of your interviews already, this is exhausting. I mean, it’s hard to listen to this and not think, yeah, no matter what, I’m screwed. They’re going to get me unless I spend all this time and effort protecting myself. And who has the time for that?
Sean Pyles:
I hear you, Sara, and it’s easy to feel somewhat defeated by all these organized criminals whose sole job is to steal our identities, which technology seems to make easier and easier for them, and to scam us in ways that we can’t even conceive of until it happens.
Sara Rathner:
I mean, I’d rather spend more time taking naps, honestly. I don’t do that enough and I’m really sleep-deprived, which is probably making me more susceptible to scams, honestly.
Sean Pyles:
Yeah, I am totally there with you. But Sara, I think we’ve also provided listeners, you included, with some really practical ways to fully arm ourselves that don’t take an undue amount of effort. And as we’ve been saying, one of the most important takeaways from this series, I think, is for everyone to realize that there is no immunity here. This stuff can happen to anyone regardless of how old you are, how much schooling you’ve had, or how much money you make, where you live. It’s a universal risk, and the more we talk about it, the more power we take away from the bad actors.
Sara Rathner:
All right. Well, the idea that AI is getting in on the action is slightly terrifying. You mentioned our robot overlords at the top of the show, and I guess they’re coming for everybody’s bank account PINs.
Sean Pyles:
If only it were that simple, Sara. AI is being deployed in sophisticated ways to manipulate our emotions, find vulnerabilities in software that we rely on every day, and generally make our lives like something out of that show Black Mirror. So in this episode, we’re going to explore things like how is AI being used in scams, what’s the deal with these AI voice scams and what hellish development might we see next in the world of scams. To start, we hear from a woman named Jennifer DeStefano. She lives in Arizona and had an experience that no one should ever go through, but that provides a window into one of the ways that scammers can reach into your heart and try to pull money from your bank account.
Sara Rathner:
All right. We want to hear what you think too, listeners. So tell us your stories of identity theft or getting scammed or share how you’re working to fight it or recover from it. Leave us a voicemail or text the Nerd Hotline at 901-730-6373. That’s 901-730-NERD. Or email a voice memo to [email protected]. Here’s Sean with our first guest.
Sean Pyles:
Jennifer DeStefano. Welcome to Smart Money.
Jennifer DeStefano:
Thank you so much for having me.
Sean Pyles:
So Jennifer, you experienced an AI voice scam. Can you set the scene for us? What was that day like before you got this phone call?
Jennifer DeStefano:
It was just a normal day. I had two children that were up training for a ski race and I had my daughter, she was at dance, so I was going to go pick her up and then hopefully joining my other two kids later in the weekend. So I went to pull up to the studio and get out of my car to go get her, and I got a phone call and it came in from an unknown number. Originally I was going to ignore it, but knowing that I had two of them that were practicing for a ski race and unknown can be medical, you just never know, just in case I decided to answer it.
When I answered it, I said hello, and I was getting out of my vehicle, so I had all my stuff in my hands. I was walking through the parking lot, so I had the phone on speaker and it was my older daughter crying and sobbing saying, “Mom, Mom, I messed up.” And I said, didn’t think anything of it. She ski raced for a number of years. It was a very familiar phone call. And I said, “Okay. What happened?” And she goes, “Mom, I messed up.” And I said, “Okay. What’d you do?” And then all of a sudden a man came on and he said, “Put your head down, lay back.”
And at that point I thought she got really hurt just being toboggan. So then I started to get really concerned. I’m like, “Wait, wait, wait. What’s going on? What’s happening, Bri? What’s going on?” And then this man gets on the phone as she starts saying, “Mom, help me. These bad men have me. Help me, help me, help me.” The phone, her voice starts to fade off with her crying and sobbing and pleading for me. And this man gets on the phone. He goes, “Listen here, I have your daughter.”
“You call the police, you call anybody, I’m going to pop her stomach so full of drugs and have my way with her and then drop her for dead in Mexico.”And at that point was when I had my hand on the door handle of dance, and I walked inside the room and I just started screaming for help. So fortunately there happened to be three other moms there that know me well. I was asking my younger daughter to get her dad on the phone, call her brother, call anybody. So she actually jumped up and ran over to my younger daughter to say, “Let’s go find your dad. Let’s figure this out.”
Another mom said, “I’m going to go call 911.” She stepped outside to go call the police, and the third mom sat beside me so she could hear everything the man was saying as I was trying to figure out where my daughter was, what’s going on.
Sean Pyles:
And so it’s a perfectly normal day. You’re about to get your kids after a day of them doing their activities, you get a phone call and within 30 seconds your world is turned upside down.
Jennifer DeStefano:
Completely upside down. I had no idea what was going on. I had a full conversation with my daughter. It was interactive. There was no pause. There was no break. There was nothing that would lead me to believe that wasn’t her. So when the mom that stepped outside called 911, she came back in and she said, “Hey, 911 tipped me off that there’s a scam where they use AI and they can replicate anyone’s voice.” She’s like, “It could have been a voice recording.” I’m like, “It was definitely not a voice recording. It was interactive. I was asking her questions. She was responding to me. It was not a recording.” And she’s like, “Well, they can do anything.” I’m like, “But it was her crying. It was her sobbing. I know it’s my daughter. It wasn’t a recording.”
Sean Pyles:
And what thoughts are going through your head as you’re having this conversation with what sounds exactly like your daughter?
Jennifer DeStefano:
I didn’t for a second not believe it. It wasn’t until another mom actually got my daughter on the phone and I talked to her and she reassured me that she was who she really was, and I could finally wrap my head around it. And then I finally believed her and then I knew it was a scam.
Sean Pyles:
How much time elapsed from the time that you answered the phone to when your actual daughter was speaking to you and you were reassured the phone call that you got wasn’t legitimate?
Jennifer DeStefano:
So the whole phone call actually took four minutes, but that’s where time freezes in that panic and fear.
Sean Pyles:
Right. Oh God, that’s heartbreaking. So do you know how the scammers got your daughter’s voice and maybe why they targeted you specifically?
Jennifer DeStefano:
So I had a bunch of different thoughts on that. Okay. She’s done a few interviews related to school, sports, whatnot, but that still doesn’t explain the crying and sobbing. It doesn’t explain that conversation. Her voice recording for her phone is her prepubescent voice, so it’s not her current voice. So I honestly have no idea. That’s where a lot of this, what’s scary is at first it was are they following me? Is it targeted? Do they know something? But then hearing how it had happened to a number of other people in different capacities, and you realize it’s a lot more arm’s length.
They were demanding money to be hand delivered to them. So they were making arrangements to come pick me up in a white van with a bag over my head. I had to have all the cash. They were going to take me to my daughter, and if I didn’t have all the cash, then we were both dead.
Sean Pyles:
God, how much were they asking for?
Jennifer DeStefano:
It was originally a million dollars. And then he came up with a number of $50,000 when I pushed back that that wasn’t possible.
Sean Pyles:
And to this day, it’s unclear why you specifically got this call?
Jennifer DeStefano:
I have no idea.
Sean Pyles:
Okay. And so after the phone call ended, I assume you hung up on the scammer when you realized that your daughter was safe.
Jennifer DeStefano:
So once I realized my daughter was safe, I actually had them on mute and they were furious that I wasn’t making final arrangements for a pickup. And then I picked the phone back up and I called them out and said, you don’t have my daughter, this is a scam and I’m going to make sure that this is going to come to a stop and I’m going to do anything I can to stop you. And I hung up on him.
Sean Pyles:
God, what are you on an individual or maybe even a family level doing to safeguard yourselves? Have you guys established a safe phrase that you might use to confirm your identities?
Jennifer DeStefano:
So we did create a safe word, and then it’s a lot of communication. Where are you? Who are you with? Where are you going? So that way if I do get a phone call or anybody gets a phone call, you can easily put it through the test. Does this make sense? Is this where they’re supposed to be? Is this even possible? Do you know the code word? Do you have some identifiers? If I didn’t know where my daughter was supposed to be, I wouldn’t have been able to locate her as fast as I did. And I had her brother, I had all of her siblings coming together in response to help me as well. So everybody was in full communication. You have to communicate and you have to seek help.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Jennifer, is there anything that you would like to leave listeners with?
Jennifer DeStefano:
Just awareness, have these conversations, sometimes maybe tough conversations, especially with children. But you have to have the conversations, have safe words, know where your kids are at. You have to have these conversations and make sure you safeguard your family.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Jennifer DeStefano, thank you for sharing your story with us.
Jennifer DeStefano:
Thank you so much for having me. I really appreciate it.
Sean Pyles:
Sara. I found this story just heartbreaking. I mean, at least they found out it was a scam before handing over money or before Jennifer offered herself up to scammers. But not everyone is so fortunate. Imagine how hard it is to say no to something like this when a loved one seems to be in jeopardy.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah, there was a piece recently in The Cut written by a journalist who knew she would never, ever fall for something like this. Don’t we all think that? And ended up handing over $50,000 in a shoebox to a stranger in a large SUV. I don’t think anybody ever sees themselves doing that. I’m glad Jennifer DeStefano didn’t let it get that far with the help of friends.
Sean Pyles:
And there’s hope that help will come from more than friends. Earlier this year the Federal Trade Commission proposed new rules that would prohibit the impersonation of individuals. It recently enacted rules that prohibit impersonating government or businesses. This proposed rule would extend to, well, us. The proposal is currently in a comment period, so if you feel so moved, go to the FTC’s website, ftc.gov, and comment.
Well, next we’re going to talk with another journalist, Bob Sullivan, who’s been covering the scam world for years now. He hosts a podcast for the AARP called The Perfect Scam and is the author of Stop Getting Ripped Off, among other books. We’re going to talk about the future of the scam world and how to protect yourself as technology continues to make it easier for the bad guys. That’s coming up in a moment. Stay with us.
Bob Sullivan, I’m so glad you could join us on Smart Money.
Bob Sullivan:
Thanks so much for having me.
Sean Pyles:
So Bob, the first question I have for you is how do I know that you are the real Bob Sullivan and not an AI-generated Bob Sullivan?
Bob Sullivan:
This is an excellent question and I’m glad that you’ve started there. You can’t, really. In fact, I did an episode on my own podcast recently where I had someone clone my voice and rather persuasively introduce the podcast, although family members pointed out to me that there were just little things that didn’t quite sound right. So either I was AI or maybe I had a bad cold or something. But it’s hard to tell, a little nasally.
Sean Pyles:
So in this series we’ve talked about identity theft, identity fraud, and the scam world, and I’m hoping that today you can give us a warning about the future of all of this and the role that artificial intelligence or AI is going to play and in fact is playing. So to start, when did we first start seeing AI being put to use in this way? Do you remember a specific AI-generated fraud or scam where you said, oh wow, this is something new?
Bob Sullivan:
Well, I have to be honest with you and say that I sit here reading emails about scams and fraud all day long, and I have not seen evidence of these kinds of things that a lot of folks are talking about right now, which is voice cloning or deep fake videos being used to fool people. Here’s a couple of things that I am worried about, however. All the data collection that we have, the criminals now have access to it and it’s going to be very easy for criminals to use that data to just really carefully craft their phishing pitches so that they’ll know exactly when you are transactional, for example.
Then they’ll know precisely when you order something from Amazon or what your zip code says about your income, and they’ll know how to attack the right person at the right time with the right message. And that’s the kind of artificial intelligence that I’m worried about, criminals using big data to essentially perfectly hone their crimes. But there’s one other thing that I’d really like to mention that enough experts have told me about that I am quite concerned about it, and that’s this idea of generative AI, where a tool like ChatGPT can engage in conversations and learn.
We have told people forever that one of the ways that they might recognize that they’re talking to a criminal over email or in chat or in a game is bad grammar or sentences that don’t quite make sense, non sequiturs. Well ChatGPT is getting very good at holding intelligent sounding conversations. Let’s start by saying it’s going to probably eliminate the bad grammar problem, but even more than that, imagine a tool that learns along the way just the right things to say to romance someone using a formula that’s been tested in the real world or the right things to say to get someone to follow the instructions for an investment scam.
I think these tools are going to learn how to carry on these conversations in ways that we’ve never seen at large scale, and that’s the kind of artificial intelligence that I’m worried about being used in scams.
Sean Pyles:
Okay. And can you talk us through how these AI voice cloning scams do work, whether they’re pervasive or not?
Bob Sullivan:
Sure. Well, I mean there are services, the fellow who did it on me signed up for a website that lets you do this for $5 a month and the first month is 80% off. So for literally one US dollar, you can upload samples of my voice or anyone’s voice and then generate for a potential scam victim, something that sounds incredibly realistic. I think the one thing that’s important to understand about what’s different about voice cloning, I don’t know if you remember the movie Sneakers, it’s one of my favorite hacker movies.
But in that movie, they basically needed a voice passport in order to enter a highly secure building, and they needed the authority figure to say things so that they could piece together cut and paste style a certain sentence, for example. So one way you might be imagining this works is someone tricks me into saying, my mother is in distress and I need you to send money to this wire account, but that’s not it. Instead, what’s powerful about AI voice cloning is with just a few sentences from me, they can extrapolate my intonation, my pausing and make me say anything.
So you don’t need a whole lot of vocabulary in order to make a really, really effective, almost fully independent voice clone.
Sean Pyles:
Well, I’d like to walk our listeners through some of the ways that fraudsters and scammers are putting this technology to work right now in ways that are shocking even to you. Can you share one or two examples that you know of that will give us a sense of just how bonkers this new era is?
Bob Sullivan:
Well, let me go back to the big data example. Foreign governments and large hacker organizations do have what would look to most people like a credit reporting agency on all of us. They have thousands of bits of data about all of us that they can use against us, and it’s data that they’ve been compiling for years. So they know what your tendencies are, they know where you shop, they know where you are. We never talk nearly enough about the theft of location data. All our cell phones are tracking devices.
And so a criminal could know when you’re walking past a store and send you a precisely timed invitation to either buy something at a discount or even worse to send you a note saying, I was just in Ireland. Bob, there’s a bank in Ireland that suddenly tried to charge a $2,000 charge to your account, say yes or no. And I would believe that message right now because I was just there. Those kinds of highly sophisticated, highly targeted crimes enabled by massive amounts of data that again can be searched now instantaneously, that’s the kind of thing that really scares me.
Sean Pyles:
And those examples are highly specific and individualized, which makes them all the more believable. So it makes it hard to trust anything that’s inbound to us.
Bob Sullivan:
Absolutely. And this is a tragedy because technology enables so many wonderful things. It is a terrible thing that we have all of these dark stories as this gray cloud around tech that’s going to prevent a lot of people from even trying to use it, and it’s going to make all of us feel just a little bit insecure because we know these sorts of bad and dangerous things can happen to us. The best example of this is in the health arena. We’re so far behind in what electronic health records could be in America right now.
When you go to the hospital, you’re laying on a gurney and there’s someone asking you over and over again, are you allergic to penicillin and you just were in a car accident. And that’s ridiculous. But because we are, I mean there’s many reasons, but a big one is we are so concerned about criminals misusing this data or companies misusing this data that we are decades behind where we could be with things like electronic health records.
Sean Pyles:
Earlier this episode, I spoke with a woman who received an AI voice scam call from what sounded like her daughter, and it of course wasn’t her daughter. But after everything settled down, she still doesn’t really understand how these people got her daughter’s voice. Her daughter isn’t really on social media, and this woman is also very unclear as to why she was targeted. So do you know how scammers are capturing people’s voices and why they might choose to target one person over another?
Bob Sullivan:
So I don’t know. I think for the vast majority of young people, it would be fairly trivial to examine a couple of TikTok videos and get enough voice sample in order to fake their voices. There are people who are not on social media and whose recorded voices aren’t in any, say, school websites or anything like that. I think they are few and far between. So I think most people should assume that a criminal could absolutely get enough audio samples of your voice to do this to you. So I can’t speak to that specific instance or why that person was targeted or why that child was targeted.
The only thing that concerns me is I don’t think we should give anyone the impression that this is happening on a widespread basis. It’s not. 99% of these kinds of calls are still being done by just human beings in boiler rooms. Nevertheless, this absolutely can be done. It can be done really inexpensively. And as I just mentioned, all of us are vulnerable to this. You’d be shocked at how much, even if you don’t have any social media, that pieces of your life have been posted by other people.
So it’s out there, and again, it takes very little, we’re talking probably less than a minute of audio in order to generate a fake you.
Sean Pyles:
What do you think we’re supposed to try to do to combat this? I mean, using me as an example, I host this podcast, you host one too. Our voices are out there just waiting for scammers to take a clip and make us say whatever they want, call our loved ones and use that voice to try to get their money. How do we fight that?
Bob Sullivan:
Yeah, you and I are screwed.
Sean Pyles:
Bob Sullivan:
Sorry. But the best, I talked to some other expert about this, so I can’t claim this advice myself, but I think it’s very good advice. At the beginning of the Photoshop era, people saw pictures of pyramids moved and weren’t skeptical of that. We just thought photographs couldn’t lie. I think nowadays for the most part, and certainly not everybody, for the most part, if you saw a crazy picture of Joe Biden riding on a camel or something, that there would be a piece of you at least that would say wait a minute, this might be fake.
There’s now an impulse that things you see might very well be faked. I’m hoping that our level of 21st century digital sophistication gets there quick enough with audio that your parents and my parents will have a predisposition to think if this is a weird phone call from Bob or Sean, it could be fake. And I think that’s the sort of learning curve we all have to go through kind of as a society.
Sean Pyles:
Well, let’s turn to some tactical ways that people can try to protect themselves. Can you tell us about the importance of things like pass keys, biometrics, other ways to authenticate that you are who you are when you get a call from someone or you allegedly call someone else?
Bob Sullivan:
I’m glad you brought that up. When it comes to voice printing in particular, there are these new technologies that are a little bit like image watermarking they’re discussing putting on voices. So you can imagine there being something even inaudible embedded in an audio phone call, which the technology company, the phone company, used seamlessly to verify that you were you, sort of like a Verisign email or whatnot. So there’s people who are working on technologies that would help with this verification. I’m not a fan of putting these really hard things onto individual consumers.
I think it’d be much better if the technology companies were forced to solve these problems because I can’t give my mom advice on how to verify how I might contact her at every platform that ever is going to exist. That advice is going to get outdated almost immediately.
Sean Pyles:
Given that we do live in this world that we are living in, I’m trying to think about ways that I can protect myself and my family. After I began doing research into 21st century scams, I established a safe phrase that if my family gets a call that alleges it’s from me and I’m in a panic, they’ll say, “Hey, what’s the safe phrase?” And I will tell them that phrase, if it’s actually me. And if it’s not, then the scammer’s going to try to divert them some other way, I’m sure.
Bob Sullivan:
I do think that’s great, and I don’t mean to trivialize any of that, but I would like to point out most people in security would say you’ve also created a vulnerability because someone armed with that phrase could easily disarm someone in your family, right?
Sean Pyles:
That’s true. Although the phrase has only been uttered in person when we agreed on what the phrase is. So we’ve tried to keep it as away from recording devices as possible to the extent that we can.
Bob Sullivan:
The only real point in my saying that was none of these things are foolproof. So it’s good to have that in mind. I think the one thing that helps all the time in the end, whatever we’re talking about here, almost inevitably, is a cover story for give me money. All of these, whatever technology we’re using, whatever the story is, in the end, there’s an ask of some kind. And stealing people against the ask is really, really important. And the best way to do that is interruption. The best way to do that is to train everybody in every circumstance, whatever is happening, to stop and talk to an independent third party, whether that be a family member or a financial professional or something.
Your son’s in jail in Europe, he needs bail money immediately, take the 15 seconds to talk to someone not involved in the situation and hear the words come out of your mouth. When you get a phone call you don’t expect, hang up and then go to the company’s website yourself and call the official published number, call the company back. That solves about 99% of these problems.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Bob, I’m asking this of all of the experts that we’re talking with for this series. So I’m going to ask you too, have you ever experienced a scam or identity theft or fraud?
Bob Sullivan:
No, but I’ve certainly been through a bunch of credit card-style identity thefts, but fortunately, knock on wood, nothing that we would consider deeply involved identity theft.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Bob, do you have any hopeful thoughts as we wrap up this series, which has been a bit of a bummer as we’ve talked about fraud and scams and people losing their life savings to technology assisted terrible people?
Bob Sullivan:
Yeah. So I spend all my week talking to people who’ve had their life savings stolen from them in all manner of speaking. It’s hard to stay optimistic. I think there’s a whole bunch of factors coming into play here. We have an aging population, many of whom thankfully have a lot of savings, they’re an easy target. And as I’ve mentioned, we have all of these tools that make it so much easier for someone halfway around the world to steal money instantly in untraceable ways. This has never happened in human history before, so this is the golden age of crime.
However, we are all talking about it now. So that’s really positive. Here’s the most optimistic thing I can tell you. Young people, software designers, engineers inside companies are now getting out of school having taken ethics classes and social impact classes and are starting to push back on their managers when they come up with tools like this. And that’s where the tide will turn is when enough people who have a grandparent who’s been a victim of a scam work at a software company and they say, we have to put this protection into this device before we release it to the world. And I do think those conversations are happening. So I am actually optimistic about that.
Sean Pyles:
That’s good to hear. And is there anything else that you wanted to mention that we didn’t touch on?
Bob Sullivan:
What we find is that a really, really big obstacle to fixing this problem is shame and embarrassment. Many, many people won’t come forward after they’ve been a victim of a crime like this because they feel stupid. I called myself stupid. All the language around scam crimes tends to focus on the individual instead of the system. Well, if you read a news story about a person who fell for a home improvement scam, that just doesn’t sound the same thing as someone who was robbed at gunpoint.
Sean Pyles:
Was the victim of a crime. That’s what happened at the end of the day.
Bob Sullivan:
They’re a victim of a crime, and we work hard on the language that we use to stress that there was a crime. There’s something about if we say, well, that person fell for this scam. Well, I would never fall for that scam. You can sort of put it at arm’s length, and that makes it a little easier to not do anything about the problem. And it takes the focus off the criminal. We kind of think the criminals are clever and sexy. But more than anything, we want to try to get away from the idea of shame because when someone is embarrassed because they are a victim of a crime, they don’t come forward.
The statistics don’t reveal the true nature and breadth of the crime. Everybody will tell you this, all this crime is wildly under reported. So however big the numbers seem to be, they’re at least double what we hear from the Federal Trade Commission and whatnot. And so anything that I can do to relieve the stigma from being a victim of crime like this, I’m all for it.
Sean Pyles:
Bob Sullivan, thank you so much for helping us out today.
Bob Sullivan:
Thanks a lot for having me.
Sean Pyles:
So Sara, after four episodes of hearing from experts and people who have experienced scams, I’m in a state of what I would call bleak optimism. The world right now is rife with scammers and their methods of duping innocent people are evolving at a rapid pace. But simultaneously, I can’t remember a time where scams and fraud were more present in the cultural conversation. Yes, it is fully a tragedy that our means of communication are so compromised that we cannot trust a call from a loved one in what seems like their most dire moment.
That really can’t be overstated. But hopefully the increased awareness of these scams will help people avoid sending money to bad actors and mitigate feelings of shame that people carry after enduring a scam. And hey, maybe one day our government will make some laws that help tamp down on the rampant scams that we’re all facing.
Sara Rathner:
And there’s this saying in journalism, if your mother tells you she loves you, fact check it. Well now you have to. So that’s the world we live in.
Sean Pyles:
If anyone contacts you at all, fact check it.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah. And text them on the side and be like, “Hey, are you calling me from jail right now?” And they’ll be like, “No.”
Sean Pyles:
I think the bottom line for everyone listening is to exercise extreme caution when you speak with anyone online and before you send money to anyone ever.
Sara Rathner:
If somebody is asking you for money and you don’t really know who they are, they are not who they tell you they are. How’s that? How’s that for general rule?
Sean Pyles:
All right. Well, for now, that’s all we have for this episode and this Nerdy deep dive about scams and ID theft and fraud. If you have a money question about any of this or anything else, turn to the Nerds and call or text us your questions at 901-730-6373. That’s 901-730-NERD. You can also email us at [email protected]. Visit nerdwallet.com/podcast for more info on this episode and remember to follow, rate and review us wherever you’re getting this podcast.
Sara Rathner:
This episode was produced by Tess Vigeland. Sean helped with editing. Kevin Berry helped with fact checking, Sara Brink mixed our audio.
Sean Pyles:
And here’s our brief disclaimer, we are not financial or investment advisors. This nerdy info is provided for general educational and entertainment purposes and may not apply to your specific circumstances.
Sara Rathner:
And with that said, until next time, turn to the Nerds.
I want to sell you a piece of The Best Interest. It’s $100 per share.
I also guarantee it will be worth $110 tomorrow. Yes, an instant 10% profit in just one day. The guarantee is part of my magical powers. It’s my hypothetical, after all. It’s truly zero risk.
Hopefully we all agree my offer would instantly sell out. Every $100 share would sell because the idea of a risk-free, 1-day return of 10% is too good to pass up. As Warren Buffett would say, “I’m selling a dollar for 90 cents.”
That’s demand. As in “supply and demand.” The outrageous demand for $100 shares would catch my eye. Demand demands higher prices. Would people buy them for $101? Or more? The answer is: “Of course.”
So I’d raise the price to $101, then $102, etc. At each stop, the demand for guaranteed 1-day returns (9%, 8%, or even lower) would still be high. Rinse and repeat, the demand justifies higher and higher prices. But eventually, we’d hit an equilibrium where the size of the 1-day guaranteed return would be on par with other options in the investment universe. The demand would level off, as would the appropriate price.
For example, the overnight U.S. Treasury rate is 5.33% as of this writing (that’s an annualized rate), which equates to a 0.014% return per day. If my shares of The Best Interest are guaranteed to sell for $110 tomorrow AND the guarantee (a.k.a. the risk) is on par with that of U.S. Treasury notes, then we should discount my shares down 0.014% to about $109.98 today.
The more guaranteed an investment’s return, the closer that return will resemble the US Treasury’s risk-free rate. The less guaranteed a return, the more we, as investors, need to demand a larger reward.
That’s a fundamental tenet of investing. The logic works in reverse, too: the larger the reward we seek, the less guaranteed any return will be.
US Treasury notes are the baseline. The return is guaranteed over a short timeline, with the full faith and credit of the US government. It’s considered the closest thing to a guarantee in the investment universe. Therefore, US Treasury note returns are lower than any risk-bearing asset.
When we move up the risk spectrum to stocks, we expect a larger return. But must accept more volatility and the realistic probablitity that our investment will lose money, especially over short timelines.
If stocks were as guaranteed as bonds, stocks would have the same return as bonds. We don’t want that! We want more returns. The only way we’ll get there is by stomaching more risk. That’s the risk premium.
To visualize this idea, we need to overlay the following two graphs on top of one another. More risk equates to more expected return, but also to a significantly wider range of potential outcomes, including negative outcomes.
When novice investors say, “I want high returns, but only if it’s low risk,” they ask for the impossible.
If such an investment existed—just like my initial offering of shares of The Best Interest, a guaranteed 10% overnight—hungry investors would devour it. Their demand would spike the investment’s price. That higher price would squeeze away the expected return until the investment’s risk/reward profile reached equilibrium with the rest of the investable universe.
Anyone who, for example, guarantees the returns of stocks is fundamentally mistaken. This includes J.L. Collins 🙂
We can speak in probabilities and suggest that, over long timelines, stocks will probably have strong returns. But that’s not a guarantee. There’s risk involved. And that very risk is the only reason why stocks’ probable strong returns exist in the first place! Whoa! Circular!
Risk and reward. Demand and price. These ideas are intrinsically linked, and every intelligent investor needs to understand that.
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
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It’s a common misconception that all debt is bad. Some forms of debt—such as student loans, mortgages, and auto loans—can help you improve your professional and personal life. But while debt can be useful, overspending while already in debt can lead to an unmanageable situation.
To find tips to ensure you aren’t adding unnecessarily to your debt or falling behind on payments, we asked Bob G. Wood—a professor of finance at the University of South Alabama’s Mitchell College of Business—to share his top debt-crushing strategies. These tips and ideas can help you gain lasting financial freedom.
Keep reading to learn how to get out of debt and stay there.
1. Avoid increasing what you owe on your credit cards
One of the first steps to getting out of debt is to stop adding to it. While credit cards are a helpful payment option (especially for unplanned expenses), continually building up a card balance that you can’t pay off every month can negatively impact your debt load and your credit score.
“A debt-averse individual pays the total balance on each credit card before the payment due date to avoid interest charges and late fees,” Wood explains. “This approach helps people avoid using the cards to buy things they cannot afford.”
2. Put some investments on hold
If you’re struggling to figure out how to pay off debt, you may want to put discretionary investments on hold until you’re debt-free. (Think: that $100 in crypto your buddy suggests you buy, or the IPO you’ve been reading about.) In some cases, paying off your debt faster will save you more money than your investments can earn. According to Wood, the exception to this rule is investing as a part of your retirement savings strategy, such as in a 401(k).
“I recommend continuing to fund retirement account investments, especially for those individuals with employer-provided accounts,” Wood says. “Many of these accounts provide a match for individual investments into the account, and that provides a 100% return on the individual’s contribution. Also, delaying retirement investment contributions can drastically reduce the future value of the account.”
3. Commit to a plan
While putting extra cash toward debt payments can help you make progress, having a steady plan is necessary to tackle debt efficiently. Wood shared the following steps consumers need to take when they’re budgeting to pay off debt:
Step 1. Differentiate between your needs and wants, and review your current expenses. “Be honest—upgrading to the latest cell phone model or adding items to an already full closet are more than likely wants rather than needs,” Wood says.
Step 2. Develop a realistic budget. Not sure how to budget to pay off debt? Be thoughtful when you create a budget to help keep your spending in check. This new budget should include a fixed monthly amount for debt repayment, beyond any monthly payments for student, auto, or home loans.
4. Choose the ‘snowball’ or the ‘avalanche’ style of debt reduction
When creating a plan to tackle your debt, you may consider the popular “debt snowball method,” which targets the smallest debt first. As soon as this first debt is satisfied, you focus on the next-lowest balance.
While seeing a debt of any size reduced to zero can be incredibly motivating, this approach may come with a cost. “Unfortunately, the strategy often results in more interest paid by the borrower,” Wood explains.
“As an alternative, the ‘debt avalanche method’ targets the highest interest debt first,” Wood explains. “By paying off the debt with the highest interest first, the borrower reduces the total amount of interest paid. Although this approach is more financially sound, it requires the borrower to focus on the long-term result and remain diligent in their payment plan.”
Note that with either of these approaches, staying current on all debt payments is important, meaning that you should pay at least the minimum amount due, while dedicating any extra contributions to the targeted debt.
5. Try to renegotiate your debt
One of the ways to pay off debt is to renegotiate it. While there are no guarantees that a lender will agree to negotiate the terms of your debt, you may have more luck if you’re a long-term customer with a history of on-time payments. In this case, a lender may be willing to waive fees, shift due dates, or even lower the interest rate. And these actions should not affect the individual’s credit rating, Wood notes.
Before committing to an arrangement, you should seek guidance from a professional about your specific situation, needs, and goals.
6. (Carefully) consider a balance transfer vs. debt consolidation loan
Transferring credit card debt to a new account has advantages, as many transfer offers may have an introductory period with an interest rate of 0%. A balance transfer can also reduce multiple payments to one, with a single payment date.
But keep an eye on your calendar so you’re aware of when the introductory period ends and the new interest rate begins.
He explains that debt consolidation is similar in concept, but these balances are typically rolled over into a personal loan for debt consolidation, a home equity loan, or a credit card with a lower interest rate (and concurrent lower payment).
7. Consider a rewards checking account
Looking to make the most of the cash you aren’t spending but still need access to? This is where a rewards checking account such as the Discover® Cashback Debit account can be handy when considering how to budget to pay off debt.
Earn cash back with your debit card
Discover Bank, Member FDIC
A rewards checking account can assist consumers in managing their debt by offering perks such as cash back or interest rewards on certain transactions. Consumers can then take those earnings and put them toward debt payments as needed.
8. Make it a family affair
Borrowing money from a trusted family member can help you save a lot on interest, making it easier to get out of debt faster. Let’s say that loved ones lend you the money you need to pay off your high-interest debts in full. You can then focus on paying them back at a lower interest rate or with no interest at all—whatever you agree on.
Just ensure you and your loved ones are on the same page about what this repayment agreement will look like so you don’t strain any relationships.
9. Know when to seek professional help
There may come a point when you need to hire a professional to help with get out of debt planning. “An individual should seek debt counseling when the anxiety associated with the debt interferes with the person’s personal and professional life or when the minimum debt payments are not possible without sacrificing necessities,” Wood says.
“There are both for-profit firms and nonprofit counseling agencies available to help an individual through the process.” The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau offers advice and resources on how to select a reputable counselor.
Consider what strategies might work best for you
There are many different approaches you can implement to help you get debt-free faster. Take some time to devise a realistic plan to tackle your debt so you can pay it off for good and start making your money work for you.
When you’re paying off debt, every boost of extra cash can help. A Discover Cashback Debit Account can help you earn cash rewards on debit card purchases1 with no account fees.
Articles may contain information from third parties. The inclusion of such information does not imply an affiliation with the bank or bank sponsorship, endorsement, or verification regarding the third party or information.
1 On up to $3,000 in debit card purchases each month. See Deposit Account Agreement for details on transaction eligibility, limitations and terms.
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Price range: $$$
Known for: Modern design, luxurious rugs
ABC Carpet & Home is a New York City landmark, known for their rich offerings across luxury rugs and furniture. With an eye both on modern design and on antique shapes, they stock some of the most eye-catching designs on the market. Many of their pieces stray away from minimalism, instead leaning towards the English country style.
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Best Maximalist Furniture
Anthropologie
Best Maximalist Furniture
Anthropologie
Price range: $$
Known for: Patterned, maximalist furniture
Anthropologie is known for their fashion, but their furniture and home decor is some of the most unique on the market. For anyone who wants their home to feel one-of-a-kind and bold, Anthropologie does not shy away from incorporating colors, patterns, or ornate design.
Best Timeless Luxury Furniture Brand
Knoll
Best Timeless Luxury Furniture Brand
Knoll
Price range: $$$
Known for: Bauhaus design
For more than 80 years, husband-and-wife duo Hans and Florence Knoll’s brand has remained committed to Bauhaus designs. Many of the brand’s designs are now replicated by other labels, but the originals continue to reign supreme. With a true eye for modern design, Knoll’s office and dining furniture lines contain some of the brand’s most iconic pieces, like the oft-reproduced Saarinen Dining Table and Barcelona Chair.
Best Modern Luxury Furniture Brand
Eternity Modern
Best Modern Luxury Furniture Brand
Eternity Modern
Price range: $$$
Known for: Modern design, iconic pieces
This online furniture retailer stocks up on some of the most iconic and sought-after designs from throughout history. From Mario Bellini sofas to Le Corbusier daybeds, Eternity Modern makes it easy to source, purchase, and own insiders’ favorite luxury furniture.
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Best Secondhand Luxury Furniture Seller
Chairish
Best Secondhand Luxury Furniture Seller
Chairish
Price range: $$
Known for: Vintage and pre-owned furniture
Chairish makes it easy to shop and sell furniture from truly genius designers, from George Nakashima wooden chairs to the forever-loved Eames lounge chair. Along with vintage items, you can also find contemporary designers sold secondhand at Chairish as well, discovering huge discounts and rare pieces.
Best Danish Luxury Furniture Brand
Audo
Best Danish Luxury Furniture Brand
Audo
Price range: $$
Known for: Scandinavian design
Audo is a Danish furniture brand that embraces its homeland’s eye for minimalist design with a focus on quality materials. The brand brought together several designers and Danish studios to create its furniture and home accessories, from the sheepskin lounge chairs to the stunning wall decor.
Most Customer-Friendly Luxury Furniture Seller
Design Within Reach
Most Customer-Friendly Luxury Furniture Seller
Design Within Reach
Price range: $$
Known for: Luxury furniture, iconic designs
Design Within Reach is the go-to online retailer for luxury furniture. Founded with the intention of bringing online iconic designs that were previously available only in hidden showrooms, Design Within Reach’s collaborations with designers and brands often involve revered interior-design pieces, like the Eames chair.
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Best Classic Luxury Furniture Brand
Roche Bobois
Best Classic Luxury Furniture Brand
Roche Bobois
Price range: $$$
Known for: Made-to-order furniture
With over 200 showrooms across the world, Roche Bobois is a familiar name to luxury furniture lovers. The company sells a wide array of made-to-order furniture and home designs. Across living, bedroom, and office spaces, pieces are so well made, you’ll own them forever. Roche Bobois also believes in full service, offering interior design consultations to help you find the perfect pieces for your home.
Best Art Deco Furniture Brand
Modani
Best Art Deco Furniture Brand
Modani
Price range: $
Known for: Art deco, mid-century modern furniture
Modani was founded by three design lovers who wanted to create an easier way to shop for contemporary luxury furniture. Inspired by art deco style and midcentury modern designs, Modani’s pieces feature angular shapes and minimal ornamentation.
Best Minimal Luxury Furniture Brand
Kartell
Best Minimal Luxury Furniture Brand
Kartell
Price range: $$$
Known for: Environmentally-friendly design
Milan, Italy–based Kartell creates luxury furniture while focusing on minimizing the impact to the environment. The brand’s method? Using innovative materials, such as recycled upholstery and chairs made of coffee waste.
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Best One-of-a-Kind Luxury Furniture Retailer
1st Dibs
Best One-of-a-Kind Luxury Furniture Retailer
1st Dibs
Price range: $$
Known for: Vintage and pre-owned furniture and decor
Shopping for vintage furniture? 1st Dibs is an online retailer that stocks some of the most well-known designs. From the beloved Egg Chair to Victorian dining tables, you can hunt to find a piece that no one else will own. While you’re at it, check out their jewelry and fashion, too.
Best Budget-Friendly Luxury Furniture Brand
CB2
Best Budget-Friendly Luxury Furniture Brand
CB2
Price range: $$
Known for: Trendy design pieces
The luxury little sister to Crate & Barrel, CB2 offers timeless design and quality, without the enormous price tags other brands have. You can often find great deals on piece that create a calm and cool environment for your home without breaking the bank (or skimping on quality).
Best Contemporary Luxury Furniture Brand
Blu Dot
Best Contemporary Luxury Furniture Brand
Blu Dot
Price range: $$
Known for: Modern furniture
Blu Dot is the brand to shop for contemporary, modern furniture designed for color and comfort. The label focuses on classics like cozy sectionals and back-supporting desk chairs, rather than trends; all furniture is designed in-house, emphasizing usability and durability.
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Best British Luxury Furniture Brand
Flash Table Circle Brass
Best British Luxury Furniture Brand
Flash Table Circle Brass
Price range: $$$
Known for: British design
Tom Dixon’s furniture is all about honoring its British roots—the pieces adapt Victorian designs, and Dixon was even awarded an OBE by the late Queen Elizabeth. The brand exclusively sells angular tables and chairs, alongside lighting and home accessories.
Best Trendy Luxury Furniture Brand
Rove Concepts
Best Trendy Luxury Furniture Brand
Rove Concepts
Price range: $$$
Known for: Sustainable, trendy design
For Rove Concepts’ furniture, no detail is too small. A focus on sustainability, innovative materials, and funky design makes it a go-to shop for anyone who wants to invest in their home’s aesthetic. From midcentury modern pieces to bulbous sofas, Rove Concepts makes it easy to shop any home decor style in one place.
Tatjana Freund is Hearst’s Fashion & Luxury Commerce Editor, covering beauty, fashion and more across multiple brands. Previously, she worked at ELLE.com and Marie Claire. She’s a fan of whiskey neat, podcasts that give her nightmares, and one time Zoë Kravitz laughed at a joke she made.
Find a place to hang your hat. Then decorate it with the best of the West.
This might not be Texas or a hold-em, but you can still design a place fit for your “Cowboy Carter” era. Whether you’re renting a house in fast-paced Northeastern cities like Philadelphia or an apartment deep in the heart of San Antonio, TX, you can find the cowboy-inspired touches that give your house a rustic, down-home appeal that feels true to your lifestyle.
At Rent., we turned to the experts who specialize in Western design and curated our very best suggestions from them. Our roundup includes interior stylists, art specialists, lifestyle bloggers, and others, so keep reading to see their recommendations.
What’s cowboy chic? Why is it trending?
Western styles such as “cowboy chic” give apartment and home dwellers a mix of cozy, rugged, and lived-in that feels approachable. “After all, it’s the versatility of Western designs that makes this accessible trend popular in the first place, as Lacey Boyer of her eponymous Lacey Boyer Interior Design says. “The popularity of Western decor taps into a broader cultural fascination with nostalgia, authenticity, and a longing for connection to rugged landscapes and simpler times. The enduring appeal of cowboy-chic lies in its versatility. It’s not merely a fleeting trend but a timeless aesthetic that can be adapted to various design sensibilities, from modern rustic to eclectic bohemian.”
It seems that other designers agree. According to Alex Woulf of Sustainably Staged, ” Western decor is poised to make a stylish comeback, and there’s no better time to explore the intersection of heritage-inspired aesthetics and modern design principles. From rugged textures to earthy palettes, there’s a richness and authenticity to Western-inspired interiors that I find utterly captivating.
Laura Medicus of Laura Medicus Interiors, a premier home design studio in Denver, also weighs in: “When Beyonce sings about Levi Jeans and line dancing, we pay attention. Cowboy chic is a cool Western vibe that’s lived in, it embraces vintage finds and is pulled together with dark colors and metallic shine. In 2024, this is inclusive of Western Americana with moody colors, fringe, denim, and worn leather.”
Where to find the Western look and defining characteristics
While anyone can add elements of this aesthetic to their homes, it’s going to feel more authentic in Western or Western-adjacent areas, like the desert areas or the Midwest. With that said, anyone can introduce cowboy-chic to their interior design. No need to gatekeep here!
As Casey Coleford of the California-based design firm, Casey Coleford Interior Design, posits, “Western-themed elements will always have a place in interior design. Whether it be a cowhide rug, wrought iron hardware, or a collection of cowboy hats hung on the wall. Geography also has a lot to do with what you’ll find in any given room: It is expected in heartland states (think Cracker Barrel). Incorporating Western elements pays homage to our settlers, and won’t be affected by music trends.” he says.
According to studio mtn founder Sierra Fox, “Western influence is everywhere, permeating beyond interior design; models dating cowboys, beach girls in cowboy boots, and a vacation on a ranch to see a rodeo is reigning over tropical getaways and city stays.”
While Fox and her team are inclined to protect their own private Idaho, they are also embracing the Western movement as a whole. “For example, studio mtn loves seeing the resurgence of worn leather, the warmth of reclaimed wood and patinated metals, and the timeless allure of rustic finishes. Western style goes beyond just aesthetics — it captures the essence of adventure, resilience, and a connection to nature. When done right, any space can tap into the soulful energy of the American West.”
Try Western rugs for starters
One Western decor idea to try is pretty low-commitment: Simply add a cowboy-chic rug to the floor to see if you fancy this trend. For example, cowhide rugs provide a fresh take on an animal print that feels more on-trend than, say, leopard print.
According to Alicia at Rodeo Cowhide Rugs, “Affordability has also made cowhide rugs more accessible, once seen as luxury items, they are now within reach for a broader audience. Additionally, they align perfectly with the latest design trends, including bohemian chic and Scandinavian minimalism. In particular, as Western themes gain popularity each year, cowhide rugs have become essential for creating an authentic cowboy-inspired decor, enhancing the rugged yet refined aesthetic of Western-themed spaces.”
Add some artwork
Want to display your Western decor more prominently? Dress up your wall with some tapestries or art.
“Western art portrays a unique time in history,” explains renowned Arizona-based artist Miguel Camarena. “The modern western look is trending because of the simplicity and elegance of the rustic modern decor and its simple use of muted colors such as warm and cool greys of the whole hue scale.
An example of this would be my “White Horse” painting. At the same time, there is the opposite end of the spectrum where whimsical and high key colors can add a pop of color and accent to most homes, which is why my “Donkey Collection” has become famous worldwide.”
Look to rustic decor for inspiration
Rustic decor gives your space an unfinished look, whether or not you’re committing to a fully Western decor scheme. Think live-edge dining tables, reclaimed wood furniture, and well-worn leather when curating items.
This style exudes warmth and coziness through its use of organic textures and vintage-inspired furnishings, creating an atmosphere reminiscent of ranch side cottages or lodges set in the mountains. Some rustic decor bleeds into other down-home looks, such as modern farmhouse and shabby chic, allowing DIY designers to play around with different looks to find the self-expression sweet spot.
Bring fashion into your Western decor
“We love seeing ‘cowboy core’ emerging in both fashion and home design,” says Patrick Burch, co-owner of Cave + Post Trading Co., an Arizona-based men’s boutique specializing in American heritage brands. “In our store and in our home, we like to use authentic Western pieces as decor. For example, we love to use cowboy hats from Spur Hats or Lost River Hat Co. as wearable wall art. Guitars mounted on the wall are another fun way to introduce a Western vibe.”
Similarly, Libby Palmieri of House of L Designs talks about how the runway’s influence is energizing the trend beyond the Western states: “As a designer, the usual requests for Western embellishments are typically found in dusty cowboy towns tucked away in Colorado, Montana, and Utah where home design can embrace the fantasy and bring the landscape strokes inside.
Now, however, the influence of runway fashion in the house of Louis Vuitton (for starters) with Pharrell at the helm and his Western-themed men’s spring 2024 retro cowboy collection and the music industry, with Beyonce’s new release of ‘Cowboy Carter,’ that is all about to change.”
Just how much will pop culture influence Western decor?
“As a roofer who’s seen a fair share of houses over the years, I’d say trends come and go faster than a Texas tumbleweed,” says Brendan Anderson of Montana-based roofing company Brix Systems. “Now, this Beyonce country album buzz sure is something new. I wouldn’t say it’ll cause a full-on stampede toward Western decor, but it could definitely spur some folks on the fence. Here’s why…”
Celebrity influence is powerful: Anderson continues, “Beyonce’s a huge star, and when she shines a light on something, people notice. It can spark interest in people who might not have considered Western style before.”
Rustic charm allure: “Western decor already has a certain timeless appeal. The worn leather, natural textures, and warm colors create a cozy and inviting atmosphere. This might resonate with folks lookin’ for a more comfortable, down-home feel.”
Subtle shift, not a roundup: “I wouldn’t expect folks to overhaul their whole house. More likely, we’ll see a sprinkle of Western influence – fringe on throw pillows, a rustic coffee table, or maybe some weathered barnboard on an accent wall.”
Anderson goes on to explain why pop culture influence might not supersede more practical considerations, like maintenance needs, location, or budget:
Maintenance matters: “Western decor often features natural materials like leather and wood. These require more upkeep than, say, laminate flooring or synthetic fabrics. Folks gotta be prepared to put in the extra effort.”
Regional appeal: “The Western aesthetic might not translate everywhere. Sure, it fits perfectly in ranch houses and cabins, but might feel out of place in a beach bungalow or a modern loft.”
Budget considerations: “Genuine Western furniture and antiques can be pricey. Most folks will likely stick to accents and accessories, which can be more affordable.”
Commenting on the recent interest in Western decor ideas, Patrick Burch of Cave + Post Trading also adds, “Shows like Yellowstone were already popularizing Western fashion and design, and Beyonce’s “Cowboy Carter” is feeding that trend. Subtle Western touches go with so many styles — just like in fashion. You can add accent pieces to your home that don’t overwhelm, but add a cool Western touch.”
Maggie McCombs is the managing editor at Rent., where she oversees the content calendar and production schedule for three high-traffic websites. She studied linguistics and Spanish at the University of Georgia, where she learned the fundamentals of languages like Arabic, Latin, French and Old English and mastered Spanish literature. Since college, Maggie has developed a strong portfolio of blogs and journalistic pieces alike. Outside of work, Maggie spends time playing video games (especially anything Zelda!), competing in trivia contests, listening to audiobooks, exploring new cities and relaxing with her husband, dogs and cat.
Mohtashami kicked off the sessions by talking about the differences between the current mortgage rate environment and some of what was seen in the early days of the financial crisis of the 2000s, saying that Americans generally are in a much better position than they were back then.
The Fed has recently indicated that it is not likely to reduce interest rates anytime soon due to economic indicators, and Mohtashami revived a 2022 prediction about what it will take to get the Fed to “break” on rates.
“In 2022, I brought up the premise that the Fed will not pivot until the labor market breaks,” he said. “So, if all of you are looking for a sustained lower move in mortgage rates, that’s what you’re going to see.”
While a lot of the oxygen in the discussion is taken up by inflation, Mohtashami asserts that’s not what the Fed is primarily focused on.
“What the Fed wants to see is the labor market get very soft and to the point that it’s breaking, and then they will find all the confidence in the world to do rate cuts and talk about making sure we have a soft landing,” he said.
Reading the data, he said, might tell a different story about the situation as opposed to strictly paying attention to what Fed officials are saying.
Illuminating data points include wage growth, job openings, the number of people quitting to find higher-paying work, and jobless claims on a weekly or monthly basis. These help observers to monitor changes in the labor market similarly to the Fed, he explained.
From there — and when combined with employment in construction and housing permit data — the thinking around rates will become clearer.
“If the labor market gets softer and the Fed starts getting a little bit more dovish, then not only can the spreads get better, but if the 10-year yield goes down, there’s your 6% [or] sub-6% mortgage rates,” he said. “But this means the labor market has to break. So, we’re all focusing on inflation, but not what really matters.”
Simonsen: More data, less ‘vibes’
A lot of the conversation in the housing market can be focused on “vibes,” or general feelings about the way things are going. Simonsen explained to attendees at The Gathering that focusing instead on real-time data is key to having accurate, predictive indicators about where the market is at and where it will go.
Simonsen began his presentation by talking about an early Altos interaction with both Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. In 2007, right around the time he started Altos Research, he was attending a conference where representatives of both companies were speaking. After they finished speaking, he aimed to pitch both companies on why they might need the kind of data Altos specializes in.
He recalled his pitch.
“I’m Mike Simonsen, my company is Altos Research, and we track every home for sale in the country every week,” he recalled saying. “We check all the pricing, all the supply and demand, and all the changes in that data, and we give that to you because traditional housing data is months behind the curve before you see what’s happening.”
The Lehman representative turned him down flatly, saying, “We’ve got so much more data than you can possibly imagine. We’re making so much money. Don’t even bother,” Simonsen recalled.
The Goldman representative was more open to hearing what he had to say, and 12 weeks later engaged with Altos as a client. A year later, Lehman Brothers went out of business, Simonsen explained.
Simonsen asserted that monitoring changing data points on a daily and weekly basis — including inventory levels, new and pending home sales, and home price data and signals —can help to more efficiently track the impact of mortgage rates.
“I believe that our obligation is to communicate with the data for everybody in the cycle, from the biggest players down to every single homebuyer and seller,” Simonsen said.
He began by looking at fresh inventory data.
“The biggest takeaway from when we’re looking at the inventory numbers is rising rates constitute rising inventory — or put another way, demand slows, inventory grows,” he said. “And that’s actually counterintuitive for a lot of folks who are just casually looking at the data.
“They think, ‘Mortgage rates are higher, nobody’s going to sell, therefore inventory is going to fall when rates fall again. Then we’ll finally get some inventory.’ But the data shows that actually, the opposite is true.”
Multiple years of higher rates will be needed to return inventory to pre-pandemic levels, but inventory growth is rising across the country, particularly in states like Florida and Texas, he explained.
More home sellers are also starting to enter the market. Last year, rising rates depressed seller participation, but higher rates are starting to be seen as more of a norm. A general sense of predictability will allow more sellers to enter the market, he said.
Prices are likely to remain stable due to higher rates, he added.
“More data, less vibes,” Simonsen said.
Fairweather: Less affordability
Daryl Fairweather of Redfin primarily spoke about housing demand; generational participation in the market; the impact of climate events and natural disasters on homebuying activity; and the flexibility that renters might experience, particularly as weather events become more prominent nationwide.
“People are spending more and more of their money on housing, and housing isn’t getting any more affordable,” she said. “We still have this underlying shortage of homes.”
But the presentation was primarily designed to be forward looking, and in that respect, interest rates and inflation are elevated, but the economy is growing. Demographics are also changing, with millennials being the largest generation and Gen Z being smaller but increasingly influential in the economy.
Changing preferences and economic realities are also disrupting long-standing paradigms related to housing in the U.S., she said.
“It used to be that homeownership was the American dream, and now it’s more the American pipe dream,” Fairweather said. “People just feel like it’s a ‘pie in the sky’ thing for them to achieve because housing affordability keeps getting worse and worse.”
Climate is also a very real issue having an impact on the housing market, Fairweather said.
“For a long time I would talk about a changing climate and people would say ‘That’s a problem for the future,’” she said. “But now, we’re seeing insurance costs going up and people are deciding where to live based on the climate. It’s becoming a more and more important issue in the housing market.”
Fairweather shared that Redfin experimented in 2020 to analyze the impacts that climate change can have on homebuying behavior over a three-month period in which users were divided into two pools: one that showed them a view of flood risk and one that did not.
“In the control view, there is no flood risk, and then in the treatment view, you could see flood risk for every single home that’s on Redfin,” she said. “The people that were shown flood risk — if they were previously looking at severely or extremely risky homes for flood risk — they went on to buy homes that had half as much risk when they saw that information,” she said.
This communicates a potential value-add opportunity for mortgage professionals to offer more robust climate information, in addition to where interest rates are projected to go or demographic information.
“[That can help] inform them about how to make the best homebuying decision,” Fairweather said.
Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday. But all that did was wipe out last Friday’s similarly tiny rise.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely budge. However, these early mini-trends often alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.302%
7.353%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.757%
6.836%
+0.01
30-year fixed FHA
7.064%
7.111%
-0.07
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.888%
8.036%
+0.12
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.199%
7.257%
+0.05
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.663%
6.737%
+0.06
30-year fixed VA
7.292%
7.332%
+0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
This morning’s Financial Times reports, “While the base case remains a reduction in borrowing costs, the options market shows a 20% probability of an increase.” That means most investors think the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates this year, but they reckon there’s a 20% chance of the central bank actually hiking them. That’s new and scary.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates it has a huge influence on the bond market that does. And I very much doubt mortgage rates will fall consistently before the Fed signals that a cut in general interest rates is imminent. And a Fed rate hike is likely to send mortgage rates much higher: maybe back up to 8% or beyond.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 4.6% from 4.64%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $81.59 from $82.06 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices fell to $2,333 from $2,350 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 40 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning’s two April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) will likely be good for mortgage rates. These “flashes” (initial readings and subject to revision) are both from S&P.
Here are this morning’s actual numbers in bold, alongside the prepublication consensus forecasts, according to MarketWatch, together with the March actual figures:
Services PMI — 50.9 actual; 52 expected; 51.7 in March
Manufacturing PMI — 51.1 actual; 52 expected; 51.9 in March
You can see that the PMIs were worse than expected, which is typically good news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s durable goods orders for March rarely affect mortgage rates. And they’d need to contain some pretty shocking data to do so tomorrow.
Markets are expecting those orders to have risen by 2.6% in March compared to a 1.3% increase in February. They’ll probably need to be significantly higher than 2.% to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates and appreciably lower to push them downward.
The rest of this week
Nothing has changed since yesterday concerning economic reports due on Thursday and Friday. So, I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday:
We’re due the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter on Thursday. And that could have a larger effect than PMIs and durable goods orders, depending on the gap between expectations and actuals.
But Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March is this week’s star report. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. And it could certainly affect mortgage rates, possibly appreciably.
The next meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is scheduled to start on Apr. 30 and last two days. So, the PCE price index will be the last inflation report it sees before making decisions.
And index that shows inflation cooling could change the mood at that meeting. True, it’s vanishingly unlikely that a cut to general interest rates will be unveiled on May 1 no matter what.
But a PCE price index that shows inflation cooling could help the Fed to move forward with cuts earlier than expected, which should cause mortgage rates to fall. Unfortunately, one that suggests inflation remains hot or is getting hotter could send those rates higher.
I’ll brief you more fully on each potentially significant report on the day before it’s published.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
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Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
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Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
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Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.