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Perhaps one of the most confusing aspects of getting a mortgage is knowing who you actually pay once the thing funds. And to that end, when your first mortgage payment is due.

While Bank X may have closed your loan, an entirely different company could send you paperwork and a payment booklet. What gives?

Well, this highlights the difference between a mortgage lender and a mortgage servicer.

Mortgage Lender vs. Mortgage Servicer

loan servicer

  • The bank or mortgage lender processes and funds the home loan
  • Once it closes it may be sold off to a loan servicer or retained in portfolio
  • The job of a loan servicer is to collect monthly mortgage payments
  • And manage escrow accounts if your home loan has impounds

As noted, a mortgage loan servicer, also known simply as a loan servicer, is the company that collects your monthly mortgage payments.

They also manage your escrow account if your home loan has impounds, collecting a portion of property taxes and homeowners insurance each month, before making those payments on your behalf when due.

So really, there’s a good chance you’ll deal with your loan servicer a lot more than your mortgage lender, who may have only been in the picture for a month or so while your loan was originated.

You see, many mortgage lenders focus on loan origination as opposed to servicing, so they’re happy to fund your loan and quickly sell it off for a profit, then rinse and repeat.

The same goes for mortgage brokers, who fund your loan on behalf of a wholesale mortgage lender, which also may sell off the loan to a different servicing company shortly after it closes.

Further complicating all this is the fact that your mortgage lender could also be your loan servicer because some big banks and mortgage companies can profit from it.

One thing mortgage companies figured out in recent years was that keeping in touch with their past customers was a great way to generate repeat business.

But if they sell all their home loans off to other companies, they may lose out if mortgage rates fall and these customers are ripe for a mortgage refinance.

There are also mortgage subservicers, companies that perform loan servicing tasks on behalf of a lender, instead of completing those things in-house.

Anyway, without getting too convoluted here, it’s important to note this distinction between lender and servicer so you know who you’re dealing with.

And to ensure you’re sending monthly mortgage payments to the right place!

What Do Loan Servicers Do?

  • Collect monthly mortgage payments
  • Manage escrow accounts (property taxes and homeowners insurance)
  • Provide customer service if borrowers have any questions
  • Generate loan payoff statements
  • Perform loss mitigation (loan default, loan modifications, foreclosure, credit reporting)
  • Ensure compliance with federal, state, local regulations

The list above should give you a better idea of what loan servicers do, and why banks and lenders may choose to outsource these things.

If you have any questions regarding your home loan post-closing, it’s generally best to get in touch with your loan servicer as opposed to your mortgage broker or lender.

They should be able to answer any questions you have, whether it’s knowing where to send payments, how to make extra payments or biweekly mortgage payments, loan amortization questions, and so on.

Additionally, if having payment troubles in the future, your loan servicer should be the one to call to discuss options.

Remember, the lender is typically just there to help process and close your loan, then hands off the reins to a servicer from there.

Mortgage Servicing Transfers

  • Many home loans are transferred to loan servicing companies shortly after funding
  • You should receive a letter within 15 days of your loan being transferred
  • The new company’s contact information should be prominently displayed
  • It will also include the date when the old servicer will no longer accept payments
  • And the date when the new servicer will start accepting monthly payments

One of the most important things to do after your mortgage closes is to take note of who your loan servicer is.

Unfortunately, mortgage servicing rights are frequently transferred shortly after your loan funds, which can make it confusing to know who to pay.

Add in all the junk mail you might receive as a new homeowner (like mortgage protection insurance) and it could get really murky.

The good news is lenders and loan servicers must adhere to certain rules regarding the transfer of servicing rights.

After your mortgage funds, look out for a letter in the mail from the entity that closed your loan regarding a servicing transfer. You may also receive a letter from your new loan servicer as well.

It should clearly explain who will be processing your mortgage payments going forward, and is required to be sent 15 days prior to your loan’s servicing rights being transferred to the new servicer.

The letter should include all the relevant contact information you’ll need to ensure payments are sent to the right company at the right time.

Take note of when they’ll begin accepting payments, and when the old company will stop accepting payments.

In my opinion, it doesn’t hurt just to call the company and make sure everyone is on the same page before you send your payment, just to avoid a mess.

If you do make a payment mistake, there are some protections in place if it’s within 60 days of the servicing transfer, per the CFPB.

During this time, the new loan servicer can’t charge you a late fee or mark the payment as late if your payment was sent to your old servicer by its due date or within the grace period.

Who Are the Top Mortgage Servicers in the Country?

1. Quicken Loans
2. Regions Mortgage
3. Huntington National Bank
4. TD Bank
5. Chase
6. M&T Mortgage
7. SunTrust Mortgage (Truist)
8. Bank of America
9. Guild Mortgage
10. Citizens Mortgage

Quicken Loans was the highest-ranked mortgage servicer for the seventh consecutive year in 2020, per the latest U.S. Primary Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Study from J.D. Power.

Both USAA and Navy Federal actually have higher rankings than all the companies listed above, but don’t meet the survey’s award criteria.

In other words, you should have a very good customer experience with those two companies as well.

Who Are the Largest Mortgage Servicers in the Country?

These are listed in alphabetical order since I don’t have figures available to rank them by total servicing volume. But they are some of the largest mortgage servicers in the country.

All of these companies service billions of dollars in home loans for customers, which they either originated themselves or acquired from other banks and mortgage lenders.

If you have a mortgage, there’s a good chance one of the companies on this list handles your loan servicing.

Tip: Always take the time to make sure you’re actually dealing with your loan servicer and not some phony entity.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

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In 2019, one out of every 100 homes were purchased by an iBuyer, short for instant buyer, per a new report from real estate brokerage Redfin.

While it doesn’t sound like iBuying is catching on, consider the fact that the number is up nearly double from 0.6% in 2018.

And about 10 times higher than it was back in 2016, when virtually nobody sold their home via an iBuyer service.

Also recognize that iBuying at scale is a very novel concept, and a business that big household names have just recently got involved in.

Some of the larger names in the space include Offerpad, Opendoor, RedfinNow, and Zillow Offers.

Simply put, an iBuyer will purchase your home for a fee somewhat similar to what a real estate agent would charge, only to rehab it and list it weeks or months later to a new buyer.

The advantage is you don’t need to find an agent, list it, stage it, hold open houses, and deal with uncertainty from prospective buyers.

In essence, you can consider these iBuyers institutional home flippers.

If they streamline their operations enough to lower costs, they might grow even more popular and eventually displace thousands of real estate agents.

iBuying Most Common in Raleigh

iBuyer share

While iBuyers still account for a tiny piece of the overall pie, they snagged a whopping 7.3% share of home sales in Raleigh, North Carolina last year.

That was nearly double the 3.9% share reported in 2018, a testament to both the viability of iBuying and the good fit cities like Raleigh present to such companies.

Per Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather, places like Raleigh are “iBuyer sweet spots” because they are affordable, have newer housing stock, and are easy to price because many of the homes reside in homogeneous tract neighborhoods.

Raleigh is also a city poised to see home price growth, another important detail iBuyers have to consider when looking to turn a profit.

Lastly, it has been a pilot city for many iBuyers, who aren’t live in all cities across the United States just yet.

Similarly hot was Phoenix, AZ, where iBuyers scooped up 5.9% of homes for sale, followed by Charlotte and Atlanta (tied at 5.2%), and Las Vegas (4.1%).

iBuyers had a market share of 3% or more in 11 markets nationally, and at least 1% share in 21 total markets.

Again, because iBuyers haven’t rolled out to all cities nationwide, the numbers are still a bit scattered and lopsided.

In terms of volume, iBuyers purchased the largest number of properties in Phoenix (5,200+), followed by Atlanta (4,300+) and Houston (2,100+).

iBuying Surged in Tucson During the Fourth Quarter

iBuyer market share saw its biggest year-over-year increase in Tucson, AZ, where the number rose from 3.1% of homes in the fourth quarter of 2019 from zero a year earlier.

Again, this may reflect companies moving into new markets, but it also shows how quickly they are gaining traction and beating out traditional agents.

The second biggest increase was in Denver, CO, where the iBuyer share rose to 2.7% from 0.4% the year before.

Despite growing popularity, iBuyer market share did fall year-over-year in select markets, including Las Vegas (-3.4%), Phoenix (-1.2%) and Orlando (-1.0%), compared to Q4 2018.

However, Orlando was the only metro area to see its share fall on an annual basis from 2018 to 2019, declining from 2.6% to 2.2%.

iBuyers Like to Buy Homes on the Cheap

iBuyer median price

As noted, iBuyers tend to be interested in mid-market homes that are easily bought and sold, but there’s still quite a range nationwide.

The most expensive markets in 2019 were Riverside, CA, Denver, CO, and Portland, OR, where these companies purchased homes at a median $391,000, $386,000, and $377,000, respectively.

The cheapest markets included Tucson, AZ, Jacksonville, FL, and Atlanta, GA, where the median was $201,000, $202,000, and $212,000, respectively.

Overall, iBuyers paid a median $269,000 for the homes they purchased, up three percent from 2018, but well below the national median of $306,000 in January.

In every housing market other than Riverside, CA and Orlando, FL, iBuyers paid below the metro-area median.

In terms of unloading the homes once purchased, iBuyers were able to sell homes 15 days faster in 2019 than they did a year earlier, this despite the typical home sale taking two days longer.

iBuyer-owned properties were listed on the market for a median 38 days in 2019, compared to 53 days in 2018.

Meanwhile, a non-iBuyer home spent a median 37 days on the market last year, compared to 35 in 2018.

If iBuyers get better at what they do, it might become a more practical solution for home sellers, assuming these companies pass the savings onto consumers.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

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If you have been trading for a while, then there is a good chance that you have made some trading mistakes along the way.

Unfortunately, it is part of learning how to trade.

After all, trading is a skill that takes time to learn.

Trading mistakes are part of the learning process. I know that sucks to hear, but it is the truth.

The outcome goal is to learn from those trading mistakes.

Then, you can realize what you did wrong so you do not repeat those same mistakes.

However, more than not, it is more common to repeat the same mistake over and over again.

If you are ready to recognize trading errors and learn how to overcome them, then keep digging in. Take notes and adjust your trading plan accordingly.

We will cover emotional trading mistakes, technical trading errors, and option trading mistakes.

Learn how to avoid common trading mistakes. These common mistakes in stock trading can have you lose more than planned. Learn how to improve trades and achieve a higher profitability.

What Are Trading Mistakes?

Trading mistakes are errors made by traders when you enter trades, either to purchase stocks or options.

More than likely, you will see the same type of trading error happening over and over again.

Trading mistakes are very common, but they do not have to lead to complete panic.

In order to minimize the chances of making a costly mistake, traders should adhere to their trading strategy. Additionally, traders should always trade with a clear head and stay disciplined.

There are plenty of trading mistakes you can avoid by being smart and adjusting your trading plan where needed.

Why Understanding Trading Mistakes Is Important for Long-term Success

Trading mistakes are the result of traders taking losing trades, which can result in poor overall performance.

Mistakes that occur during trading often include not paying attention to the market, not understanding risk, not having a well-thought out trading strategy, and being bad at managing the trade.

Whatever the reason, trading errors occur and it is how we react to them that matters.

Long-term success in trading is not a goal that can be accomplished overnight.

Achieving long-term success with active trading requires patience, discipline, and practice.

It is easy to get caught up in day-to-day successes and forget to commit to a long-term plan. As traders, it is important to be able to recognize our mistakes so that we can learn from them and move forward.

Top 5 Trading Mistakes

A picture of crumbled paper to show the top trading mistakes.

As you will see, we compiled a long list of trading mistakes. Each trader will see some of those trading errors in themselves. Some are small trading mistakes while others are detrimental.

First, we are going to focus on the top five trading mistakes first. This will make or break your success as a trader.

The following are five common trading mistakes that traders make and how to avoid them.

#1 – No Trading Plan

Trading without a plan means you enter a trade without knowing your next step.

No trading plan means that traders are not able to set clear goals, establish risk-reward ratios, and avoid common pitfalls that can occur during a trade. This makes it difficult for traders to know when they should be buying, selling, or holding.

Trading without a plan is risky because it can lead to losses that are much higher than they need to be.

When starting out in trading, it is important to remember that we can only focus on what we can control. This means that we should not worry about things we cannot change, such as the past or the behavior of other traders. Instead, we should form a trading plan and stick to it so that we can succeed in the long run.

Creating your trading plan will happen with many revisions. The goal of the trading plan is to set your overall strategy for trading.

Also, you need to have a specific trading strategy for each trade you enter.

Avoid by: Spending time to develop a trading plan. Revise as needed. Stick to it.

#2 – Risk Management Plan is Missing

A picture showing how important a risk management plan is.

A risk management plan is essential for traders and it should be included in any trading plan.

Without a risk management plan, traders are more likely to make emotional decisions that can lead to costly mistakes. For many traders, this is the hardest thing for them to manage.

It is possible to create a risk management plan as your overall trading plan.

In your risk management plan, you must decide (in advance) how much money you are willing to lose based on the amount of profit you perceive to make. For instance, you are willing to risk $300 in order to make $1000.

Many day traders focus on a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Personally, I look for stronger reward-to-risk ratios greater than 3:1.

Avoid by: Understand how risk is a part of making a profit. Set your risk tolerance and do not deviate from it.

#3 – Not Keeping a Trading Journal

One of the most important aspects of successful trading is keeping a journal.

This not only helps you keep track of your trades and performance, but it can also help you remember what worked and what did not. Journaling is so helpful and such an overlooked task.

Your trading journal is the perfect place to take notes, keep track of your wins and losses, and record market movements so that you can learn from past mistakes.

At the end of every trading session, you should take some time to analyze your trades.

  • What went well?
  • What didn’t go well?
  • Why did you make that particular trade?
  • What was your entry strategy?
  • What was your exit strategy?
  • Where was the overall market momentum?
  • Did you control your emotions?
  • What grade would you give yourself?

This analysis is important so that you can learn from your mistakes and improve your trading skills. Stay motivated to continue learning about trading and keep more profit.

Avoid by: Start journaling. Spend time after exiting a trade and the market day to understand what happen and why you did a certain trade.

#4 – Watching Too Many Stocks

Picture of a busy stock chart.

Watching too many stocks can lead to a decrease in returns and overall confusion on what is happening with your watchlist.

As a result, it is important to be selective.

The same can be said of stock scanners. If you are watching too many variables and possibilities, you can quickly become overwhelmed.

When you develop your trading plan, you need to decide how you find stocks.

Personally, I prefer to focus on a handful of stocks and a few key metrics. Then, watch them closely and trade accordingly.

As a new trader, I would pick about 5-10 stocks to analyze.

Avoid by: Revise your watchlist to half what you are currently watching.

#5 – Actually Exiting Trade as Planned

Above we talked about creating a trading plan and having a trading strategy for each trade taken.

But, the trading mistake happens when you do not exit the trade as planned.

This could be because of “hopemium” that the stock price will recover and you will get back your loss.

Our “hopemium” is that the stock price keeps rising and you will make more money.

Either one can be damaging to your trading account.

You created a plan. As a disciplined trader, you must follow your plan either to maximize your current profit or protect your risk against further losses.

Avoid by: Exiting at your set targets. Period.

12 Typical Emotional Trading Errors

Trading is 80% mental and 20% execution. Okay, I am not sure that there is an official study to back it up. But, I do know as a trader that emotions play heavily into your overall profit.

The typical emotional trading errors that traders make when they are in a trade are overconfidence, jumping into trades before the proper analysis is completed, and inability to take losses.

This is where most of the trading mistakes are made.

When first starting out in trading, it is easy to get caught up in the prospect of making a lot of money quickly. However, most traders find that trading is not easy to do and make common emotional trading errors.

Let’s dig into these emotional mistakes first and then we will follow up on the technical trading mistakes.

1. Letting emotions impair decision making

Emotions are an important part of decision-making, but it can be dangerous to allow them to influence our decisions. We should also take into account that emotions can often lead us astray.

It is clear that emotional trading can lead to bad decision making and, ultimately, financial losses.

When investors let their emotions take over, they are not thinking logically and may make impulsive decisions. For example, they may sell stocks when the market is down in order to avoid further losses, even though the stock may rebound soon after.

In order to be successful traders, it is important to stay calm and rational when making decisions.

Overcome by: Stick to your trading plan and take emotion out of the equation.

2. Unrealistic Profit Expectations

You go into every single trade expecting a home run! Enough money to achieve your dreams overnight!

These types of profit expectations will have you throwing your risk management plan out of the window and set you up for failure with greed, overconfidence, and impatience.

Be realistic about your expectations with trading activity.

Overcome by: Go for base hits. Small consistent wins.

3. Greed

Picture of someone grabbing a wad of cash in greed.

Greed is a deep-seated need for more profit without regard to the chart or market conditions.

The common rationale is hopefully the stock will go up. Typically, you hold your position too long and end up losing some of your gains.

Greed can manifest in many different ways, and people with greed often neglect their own needs in order to attain more.

Overcome by: Set an OCO bracket to exit the trade at your specified level. Take you out of the equation.

4. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)

You fear that you missed out on a trade, so you decide to jump in. As a result, you are risking more than you should.

This trading mistake is common, especially with online trading communities.

As a result, you may buy at the high and watch the stock reverse.

Overcome by: Realize that there will be missed opportunities. That is part of the game. There will always be another chance.

5. Fear

In many cases, fear is a reaction to why or why not we enter a trade.

For any trader, they may become frozen unable able to make a decision as their mind is wrapped in fear. At the same time, they are either missing out on potential profits or unable to exit a trade due to mounting losses.

Overcome by: This is a real emotion that you must overcome. Take the time and read resources to help you overcome being paralyzed by fear.

6. Overconfidence after a profitable trade

Picture of a guy throwing money after a profitable trade.

The overconfidence that comes with success can lead to a loss of profits.

When a trader has a winning position, they may become overconfident and make bad decisions because of the previously profitable trade.

For example, they may not take their profits off the table when there is an opportunity to do so or increase their position size when they should be taking profits. This could lead to them losing all of their winnings and more.

Overcome by: Take a break from trading for a few days or a week after a big win.

7. Entering a Trade Based on Your Gut

The process of entering a trade based on your gut is, essentially, following your “gut feeling” and buying or selling shares after the market opens. This is seen as a more risky and less profitable strategy than following a more traditional market timing approach.

Trading is all about making calculated decisions and sticking to a plan.

Trading based on your gut feeling or emotions will only lead to costly mistakes.

Overcome by: Before entering into any trade, make sure you have a solid strategy in place and know all the rules. Only then should you start trading.

8. Not reviewing trades

Picture of a notebook to journal trades.

Not reviewing trades is a common problem for many traders. Traders who don’t review their trades tend to be more likely to make mistakes in their trading and over-trade, which can result in losses.

You will make the same mistake over and over again until you realize the root of the problem.

This is how you move from a losing average to a winning percentage.

Overcome by: Let your journal be your friend. Document everything including your emotions.

9. Following the Herd

Many people enjoy following the herd with stock trading, especially online platforms on Reddit, Discord, or Twitter.

You may decide to follow a certain group of people in order to be fed stock picks or updates.

This can be risky because there is no sound foundation to base your trade upon.

Overcome by: Trade your style and let that fit you.

10. The Danger of Over-Confidence

The “beginner’s luck” experienced by some novice traders may lead them to believe that trading is the proverbial road to quick riches.

Over-confidence is the belief that one’s abilities, knowledge, or qualities are better than average.

This over-confidence is a risk factor for certain types of mistakes and other negative outcomes as it leads to complacency, a lack of preparation, and an overestimation of one’s abilities.

Overcome by: Realize your limitations and watch for overconfidence to appear.

11. The Importance of Accepting Losses

Losses are always a part of trading life, but they can be overwhelming when they occur.

It is important to recognize that losses are in fact an inevitable part of growth and development as a trader.

Overcome by: Journal all of your losses. Look for patterns to appear. Adjust your trading strategy as appropriate.

12. Quit Your Job Too Fast

Quitting your job too fast is not a good idea, as it will force you to place trades that may not be the best set-ups.

Day trading can be a very risky venture, and it is possible to lose everything you have invested.

It is important to be aware of the risks before getting started. More importantly, do not quit your job too fast. This can lead to losses in your investments and could potentially put you in a worse financial situation than you were before.

Overcome by: Keep trading as a side hustle. Hone your trading skills and build up a reserve fund that will cover your monthly expenses. You will know when you are prepared to leave your 9-5.

Common Mistakes in Stock Trading

Picture of a guy realizing his common mistakes in stock trading.

According to a study by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, technical trading mistakes are actually fairly common among individual investors.

Mistakes in technical trading can be two-fold, either due to lack of knowledge or poor execution.

The most common mistakes are buying at the top and selling at the bottom, overtrading, and not taking the time to properly understand how trading works.

Now, let’s dig into all of the common trading mistakes I see.

1. Overtrading

Let’s start by talking about overtrading. This is a mistake that I see many people make. It is also a mistake that could have been easily prevented if you had just done your research before placing the trade.

Overtrading or placing more orders than you should do is the most common mistake.

Many new traders will simply open up their platform, look at the market, and place a trade. They are often chasing after the last couple of candles or they see an opportunity to get in “on the cheap”.

The problem with this approach is that you have no idea if this is a good trade or not. You are simply taking a shot in the dark and hoping for the best.

Overcome by: Only place the A+ setups that you like. Once you have traded so many times per day or week, stop trading.

2. Buying High and Selling Low

We all have heard the saying, “buy high and sell low.” However, too many novice traders do the complete opposite.

This trend happens with one of the emotional mistakes of FOMO; we already dived into that concept earlier.

Overcome by: Follow your trading plan on when to enter and exit the trade. Practice your strategy in a simulated account and master it.

3. Lack of Trading Knowledge

The lack of trading knowledge is a problem for many traders who are not familiar with how the stock market works. This can cause them to make mistakes when buying and selling stocks, which could result in losing a lot of money.

Just because you made a profit once on one stock does not mean that is a repeatable action.

In order to be successful in trading, it is important to have a good understanding of the markets and the strategies involved.

Without proper training, you are likely to make costly mistakes that can cost you money. Trading courses and tutorials are available online and through other resources to help you gain this knowledge and become a successful trader.

Overcome by: Take an investing course. Spend money on your education and not your losses. Here is a review of my favorite day trading course.

4. Following Too Many Strategies

Following too many strategies is a common problem in the investing world, which can lead to poor performance and more costly mistakes.

There are a million and one different approaches on how to trade the stock market, which indicators to use, whose advice you should follow, so on and so forth.

And then, many traders try and couple the strategies together only to quickly learn they may cause more losses than profits.

One way to avoid following too many strategies is by using a set of rules to decide which strategies are appropriate for investing.

Overcome by: Develop your trading plan. Outline the investing strategies you will use. Test any new strategies in SIM first.

5. Do Your Research

The solution to this problem is simple: do your research!

Before you enter a trade, take the time to do some analysis on the asset you are looking at. Look at past price action, news events, and any other relevant information that you can find.

Understand why the market might move in your favor and be able to build a case for it. The more data points you have supporting your position, the better off you will be.

If you are able to build a strong case for why the asset will move in your favor, then you can enter with confidence. This is because if the market does not move in your favor, you will know that it isn’t because of a lack of research on your part.

When you enter with confidence, this will make it easier to hold through the inevitable volatility and price swings.

Overcome by: If you enter without knowing why something is likely to move in your favor, then you are setting yourself up for failure. Do your research.

6. Not Using Stop-Loss Orders

Stop orders come in several varieties and can limit losses due to adverse movement in a stock or the market as a whole.

Tight stop losses generally mean that losses are capped before they become sizeable. However, you may have your stop loss too tight and get stopped out before your stock has room to move.

A corollary to this common trading mistake is when a trader cancels a stop order on a losing trade just before it can be triggered because they believe that the price trend will reverse.

Overcome by: Plan your stop loss in advance. Stick to it as it is part of an overall risk management strategy.

7. Letting Losses Grow

Active traders can be harmed by refusing to take quick action to close a losing trade.

It is important to take small losses quickly and limit your risk in order to stay profitable.

Stop losses can help you avoid larger losses.

While the stock may come back to your buy price, you have increased your risk far beyond what you planned. If your planned loss was $300 and now you are down over $500, it will take that much longer to overcome that growing loss.

Cut your losses. Review the chart. See what a better entry point may be.

Overcome by: If the stock moves past your pre-determined stop, then exit the trade. Don’t trade on hope.

8. Chasing After Performance

Many day traders are tempted to chase stocks, which is a bad reputation in the day trading world.

This happens when they see a stock that has had a large price increase and they think that it will continue to go up. In reality, this is not usually the case, and chasing stocks can lead to big losses.

What goes up must come down, right?

Overcome by: Wait for a better time to enter the trade according to your trading plan.

9. Avoiding Your Homework

It is important to do your homework. If you avoid doing your homework, then don’t expect fast results

Many new traders often do not do their homework before making any investment decisions.

This can lead to costly mistakes that can be avoided by doing some basic research. Trading is a complex process and should not be taken lightly – make sure you are fully prepared before risking your hard-earned money.

Overcome by: If you have not enrolled in an investing course, do that. Set daily goals on how to improve your trading performance that is not based on profit or loss.

10. Trading Difficult and Unclear Patterns

It is important to stick with the patterns and indicators that are clear and unmistakable so you don’t get caught up in any ambiguous or unclear trading signals.

With a little bit of research and understanding, these market patterns can become quite clear.

By forcing a chart to fit in what you want, then you are putting your trading capital at risk.

Overcome by: If you cannot read a clear chart or pattern, then quickly move to the next stock.

11. Poor Reward to Risk ratios

The most common mistake made by traders is poor risk management. This usually means taking on too much risk in relation to the potential rewards, which can lead to heavy losses if the trade goes wrong.

It is important to always have a solid plan for how much you are willing to lose on any given trade and never deviate from it.

What is the Reward to Risk ratio you look for:

  • 1:1 Reward to Risk
  • 2:1 Reward to Risk
  • 3:1 Reward to Risk

Many beginner traders do not want to take on as much risk because their appetite for potential rewards may be lower. It is important for beginners to consider their trading strategies and risk management plans so that they can make the most informed decisions possible.

Risk-to-reward ratios are an important part of trading, and experienced traders are typically more open to risk in order to maximize their potential rewards. This means that they may be more likely to make high-risk, high-reward trades.

Overcome by: Stick to Risk to reward ratios that fit your trading plan.

12. Ignoring volatility

Volatility is the fear and unknown in the market.

The most important thing to remember about investing is that the stock market can be volatile.

A measure of volatility is from the VIX.

Overcome by: Decide how you will trade when the VIX is high and the news is negative.

13. Too Many Open Positions

Entering too many positions is one of the most common mistakes investors make. A portfolio should consist of a handful of top-performing investments that have proven to be good bets over time.

It is unwise to open too many positions in a short amount of time because it could lead to confusion.

This can be risky because if one or two of the positions go south, the entire portfolio can suffer. For this reason, it is important to carefully consider each position before opening it and make sure that all positions are contributing positively to the overall goal.

Overcome by: As an active trader, stick to under 5 open positions. As a long-term investor, look to build a portfolio of 25 stocks over time.

14. Buying With Too Much Margin

Most brokers offer 2:1 or 4:1 margin to cash. While this is tempting to use, it can also give you a margin call.

Margin can help you make more money by increasing your position size, but it can also exaggerate your losses.

Exaggerated gains and losses that accompany small movements in price can spell disaster for a new trader using margin excessively.

Overcome by: Use your cash only. Stay away from using margin.

15. Following Meme Stocks

These are the stocks made popular by many Reddit personal finance groups.

You have probably heard of Gamestop, Blackberry, AMC, or Bed Bath and Beyond as a meme stock.

While these stocks have risen to crazy highs, they have also fallen just as fast. Chasing the high may leave you with a big and painful loss.

Overcome by: Stick to your stock watchlist.

16. Buying Stocks With No Volume

Buying stocks with no volume is a risky idea that involves placing an order on a stock without knowing how much interest there will be in the shares. This can result in losing money if there are no buyers for the shares.

It is important to validate the price of a stock by looking at volume. The volume shows how much interest there is in a stock and can be indicative of future price movement.

When volume is low, it’s best to stay away from buying stocks as it could be a sign that the stock price is not stable.

Overcome by: Trade stocks with a volume of at least 500,000 or higher.

17. Ignoring Indicators

Indicators are things that tell us the market is going up or down. Examples of indicators would be the stock market at a particular point in time, a company’s performance with regards to earnings, the price of a product or service.

Every trader has their own set of indicators they use.

If you have outlined indicators you use in your trading, make sure to follow them regardless if it is against the way you want the stock to move.

Overcome by: Stick to your trading plan for each stock individually.

18. Trading Too Large Position Sizes

Trading too large position sizes is a risk that traders may run into when they hold positions in their portfolios for extended periods of time.

Position size is the amount of money placed on a trade, and the risk is that a trader may lose more than their capital on the trade if it does not go well.

Overcome by: Base your position size on the amount you are willing to lose. Not how much you want to make.

19. Inexperienced Day Trading

In order to be successful in trading, it is important to have a good understanding of the markets and the strategies you are using. Without proper training, it is easy to make costly mistakes.

Too many day traders turn trading into an unnecessary risky game.

To be successful, a day trader must have a solid foundation in how to invest in stocks for beginners.

Overcome by: Practice in a simulated account and make all of your mistakes there before moving to live money.

20. Inconsistent trading size

Inconsistent trading size is when traders are unable to predict what their position size should be in order to meet the trader’s desired profit goal.

Trading size is one of the most crucial aspects of a trading strategy and should be considered carefully. Larger trade sizes come with an increased risk, so it’s important to be aware of your position size when making trades.

Overcome by: Don’t risk too much on one trade. Stick to your risk management plan.

21. Trading on numerous markets

Trading on numerous markets is when a trader invests in stocks, bonds, commodities, crypto, and other securities.

Every type of market moves differently and takes time to understand how to be profitable.

Overcome by: Find your niche and stick to it.

22. Over-leveraging

Leverage is a powerful tool that can be used to magnify gains and losses in a trade. It is important to be aware of the amount of leverage being used in order to effectively manage risk.

Brokers play an important role in protecting their customers by providing margin calls and other risk management tools.

Overcome by: If you feel over-leveraged, sell some positions before your broker gets involved.

23. Overexposing a position

Overexposure is a term used in the investment world to describe the risk that comes with exposing your position too much in the market. When you have overexposed your position, you are putting yourself at risk of losing money if the stock or security you are invested in falls in value.

You are taking on too much risk.

Overcome by: Stick to your risk management plan. Always have cash reverse on hand in case the market reverses.

24. Lack of time horizon

There are different time horizons for various types of trading strategies. It is important to think about the time horizon you are comfortable with before investing in any type of investment.

If you are a day trader, you plan to close your trades before the end of the trading session. As a swing trader, you typically hold trades for a couple of days maybe up to a month. As a long-term investor, you plan to hold your stocks for longer than a year.

Overcome by: Match the time horizon of that investment purchase with your investing goals.

25. Over-reliance on software

Although some trading software can be highly beneficial to traders, it is important not to over-rely on it.

Automated trading systems are becoming so advanced that they could revolutionize the markets. As a result, human traders need to be aware of the potential for these systems to make mistakes and use them in conjunction with their own judgment.

Overcome by: Set alerts before you want to enter or exit a trade. Then, review if the move still follows your trading strategy.

Top Options Trading Mistakes Beginner Traders Make

Picture of a phone and stock chart for

These options trading mistakes are specific to option trading.

Trading options is an advanced strategy. If you have losses trading stocks, wait before you start trading options.

1. Not having a Trading Plan

Every trader needs a trading plan that outlines strategies, game plans, and trade metrics.

When you are trading without a plan, you are essentially gambling and hoping for the best.

This is not a recipe for success in the world of stock trading and is especially true for options traders.

A good trading plan should include chart analysis so that you can make informed decisions about when to buy and sell stocks. If you are using HOPE instead of a trading plan, then you need to find out the right way to interpret the chart because that will give you a better idea of what is happening in the market and how likely it is that your investment will succeed.

Overcome by: Create a specific trading plan based on your option strategy.

2. Not properly Researching Option Contracts

Learning to trade options is like going to school for a whole different trade.

There are way too many technical aspects to discuss in this mistake.

Spend time learning what criteria you want from an options contract to be successful.

Overcome by: Learn how options work and practice trading options in the simulator before going live.

3. Trading without an understanding of the underlying asset

Before you start trading options, trade with stocks.

Every stock moves at its own beat. You need to learn how it moves.

Jumping into options prior to knowing the stock can cause extreme losses. Learn how the underlying asset moves first. Be successful in trading stocks before moving to options.

Overcome by: Learn to trade the stock with shares first. Then, practice in a simulator. Once familiar, then trade live with options.

4. Buying Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call Options

Options trading is a risk-based strategy. It’s important to know which strategies are right for you and what the risks of each option type are before putting on an option trade.

One common mistake that many traders make when it comes to option trades is buying out-of-the-money (OTM) call options.

This is because OTM call options are inexpensive and have a range of around 100,000 to 1 million. To avoid this mistake, it’s important to know what the risks of buying OTM call options are and which option strategies are appropriate for you.

Overcome by: Focus on trading In-the-money (ITM) call contracts. Know your strategy.

5. Not Knowing What to Do When Assigned

When you enter into an options contract, you are essentially agreeing to buy or sell the underlying asset at a specific price on or before a certain date.

If the market moves in a way that benefits the buyer of the option (the person who contracts to buy the asset), they can choose to exercise their option and purchase the asset at the agreed-upon price. However, if the market moves in a way that benefits the seller of the option (the person who contracts to sell), then they may “assign” their contract to someone else – meaning that they no longer want to buy/sell the asset, but would like someone else to take on that responsibility.

This can be jarring if you haven’t factored it into your decision-making when trading options, so it is important to be aware of the possibility.

This is why traders need a higher trading level to sell options contracts or verticals.

Overcome by: Be okay with buying the shares if you are assigned. That is a part of your trading plan.

6. Legging Into Spreads

It is a common mistake for traders to get legged into spreads by entering positions when the market price has moved away from their position. They may have gotten caught up in the belief that they are being a “smart” trader by trying to profit from the spread.

The problem is that they are not taking into account that their cost basis must go up in order to maintain the position. If the market price of the underlying goes up, their cost basis must go up as well.

Overcome by: If you are not comfortable with this advanced strategy, then exit your options contract and place a new one.

7. Trading Illiquid Options

Trading illiquid options is a mistake because traders are taking on too much risk, with potentially disastrous consequences.

Illiquid means that the option cannot be bought or sold at the given time.

In other words, the option is not tradable. When traders trade illiquid options, they are taking a risk that their trades will not be executed because there is no liquidity in the market at that time. They have to hope that the market will become liquid again, and they can then sell their position or buy back their option at a lower price.

Overcome by: Check option volume and open interest at your strike place. Verify you have interest in moving your contract.

8. No Exit Plan

It is important to have a plan in case your trading strategy doesn’t pan out as planned.

This will give you the peace of mind that you won’t be left high and dry without an exit strategy.

With options is it more difficult to limit your risk to reward. As a result, you must decide your exit plan in advance.

Overcome by: Develop your trading strategy and include how and when you will exit the option contract.

Ready to Avoid these Trading Mistakes?

Investors are often their own worst enemy when it comes to trading.

They make emotional decisions instead of logical ones, and this leads to them making costly mistakes. Plus there are many technical errors new and seasoned traders are still making.

In order to be successful in the markets, investors must first learn to accept their losses and move on. Only then can they put that mistake behind them and focus on making profitable trades in the future.

In this post, I shared some of the more common trading mistakes that people make and how to avoid them.

Now, you have to work to avoid these trading mistakes and be profitable.

Learn how to avoid common trading mistakes. These common mistakes in stock trading can have you lose more than planned. Learn how to improve trades and achieve a higher profitability.

Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!

Source: moneybliss.org

Apache is functioning normally

The housing market is getting stranger by the day.

While affordability has arguably never been worse, prices are rising and there are virtually no homes for sale.

This is making it difficult for both housing bulls and bears to make the case for a boom or a crash.

When all is said and done, we might just experience a stagnant market that fails to keep up with inflation.

And a severe economic downturn in the housing industry due to a lack of sales volume.

New For Sale Listings Hit Seasonal Low in June

new listings

First things first, new real estate listings are off a whopping 25% from a year ago, according to a new report from Redfin.

This covers the four-week time period ending on June 4th. Just 89,249 homes were listed.

And the real estate brokerage noted that new listings fell in all metros analyzed.

The declines were the most pronounced in Las Vegas (-42.3% YoY), Phoenix (-40.9%), Seattle (-40.4%), Oakland (-39.8%), and San Diego (-37.2%).

These happen to be areas that saw massive home price appreciation, then big home price corrections.

It seems homeowners are now staying put in these areas, perhaps as they come to terms with the inability to make a move from a financial standpoint.

Ultimately, the mortgage-rate lock in effect continues to make it both unfavorable and sometimes impossible for existing homeowners to move.

Simply put, selling your home with a 2-3% mortgage rate, only to buy one with a 7% mortgage rate, doesn’t pencil.

And rents aren’t cheap either, so it’s not a viable option to sell and rent for much less.

Active Real Estate Listings Are Falling When They Typically Rise

active listings

Meanwhile, active listings (the number of for-sale homes available at any point during the period) declined 4.6% from a year earlier.

This was just the second decline in 12 months, the first being a week earlier when actives fell 1.7%.

Redfin noted that active listings were also down month-to-month at a time of year when they typically rise.

Because of the lack of new listings, the total number of homes on the market fell to its lowest level on record for an early June.

Long story short, there is no housing inventory, which is somewhat good news because there aren’t a lot of buyers either.

As noted, affordability isn’t great with mortgage rates at/near 7% and home prices still historically high.

This explains why the median home sale price was down just 1.6% from a year ago at $379,463.

That represented the smallest decline in the past three months as many markets that were down year-over-year begin to turn things around.

Housing Supply Is Up Slightly from a Year Ago

available supply

While new listings and active inventory are down, housing supply inched up a bit from last year.

As of June 4th, supply was at 2.6 months, which is the amount of time it would take to clear inventory at the current sales pace.

But while it’s up 0.5% from a year ago, it’s still well below the 4-5 months that represents a healthy, balanced housing market.

The reason it’s higher is because homes are sitting on the market longer and taking more time to receive offers.

Again, you can blame affordability for this as there are fewer eligible buyers out there. And perhaps fewer who are interested even if they can afford it.

About a third of homes that went under contract received an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, down from 38% a year ago.

And homes that sold were on the market for a median 28 days (the shortest span since September), but much longer than the record low 18 days a year earlier.

So it’s clear the housing market isn’t thriving at the moment, but due to a continued lack of inventory, prices remain sticky.

But that could change if mortgage rates remain elevated during the softer part of the calendar year (summer/fall/winter).

Still, the resilience of home prices continues to exceed expectations and defy the housing bears.

Read more: When will the housing market crash again?

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

With significant increases in mortgage rates and application volumes, 2022 is already showing us the effects of the Federal Reserve’s expedited tapering plan. Things are moving fast, so let’s get right into this week’s update with the latest mortgage industry news.

Rates Update

In the week ending January 13, Freddie Mac reported some of the largest average mortgage rate increases in recent months. According to Freddie’s PMMS, loan products across the board showed increases of upwards of 0.2 percent – bringing rates to their highest since early 2020. Our predictions:

  • Refinance opportunities could be disappearing. Should mortgage rates continue to increase, the window to refinance at a lower rate will subsequently close. Acting sooner than later will benefit you in the long run, so be sure to contact your Total Mortgage loan officer to get started.
  • Mortgage application volume will increase. On January 12, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.4 percent increase in mortgage applications from the week prior; this increase will likely continue in the coming weeks as buyers take advantage of the market before further rate hikes.

As always, we’ll continue to keep you updated as the market develops and mortgage rates shift. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting on January 26 will likely shed more light on the above as we close out the month. For now, contact us if you have any concerns or are ready to lock in a rate before they continue to rise.

Older, but Still Important News

Even with this recent spike in mortgage rate numbers, let’s not forget about older news that will still hold prominence in the months to come.

Earlier this month, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced upcoming fee increases for certain Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac home loans. Effective April 1, 2022, upfront fees for these options will have the following increases:

  • Upfront fees for high-balance loans will increase between 0.25 and 0.75 percent.
  • Upfront costs for second home loans (non-primary residence) will increase between 1.125 and 3.875 percent.

These increases will ultimately depend on each product’s loan-to-value ratio. “High-balance” loans qualify as any that go above the conforming baseline limit introduced on January 1 – more information on that below.

At the start of the month, the borrowing limits for Conventional and Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan options saw significant increases to help buyers combat rising market prices. The conforming limit for single-unit home loans is now $647,200 – an 18.05 percent increase from last year’s limit. To learn more about these changes and your new borrowing options, get in touch with your Total Mortgage loan officer.

In Closing

Despite everything, the market is still in a favorable place for buyers – but for how much longer? Even in the face of Omicron concerns, mortgage rates are rising and are only expected to continue doing so throughout the year. If you’ve been waiting for the perfect rate, now may be one of your last chances to lock it in; contact us to get started and stay tuned for next week’s Mortgage Monday update!

Source: totalmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

More than any time since before the Great Financial Crisis, the disconnect between Washington policy makers and the actual reality in the mortgage markets is widening. The lack of real-world knowledge and comprehension by key agency heads in the Biden Administration begs the question whether Washington is a help or a hindrance as the industry grapples with rising interest rates and mounting credit loss expenses.

For example, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau head Rohit Chopra said in May that “a major disruption or failure of a large mortgage servicer really gives me a nightmare.” He made these intemperate comments during CBA Live 2023, a conference hosted by the Consumer Bankers Association. 

Like his predecessor Richard Cordray, Chopra’s focus is political rather than on any real threat. But of course, progressive solutions require problems. Three large and mismanaged depositories failed in the first quarter of 2023, yet progressive partisans like Chopra, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Federal Housing Finance Agency head Sandra Thompson ignore the public record and continue to fret about nonexistent risk of contagion from mortgage servicers. Really?

The big risk posed by mortgage servicers, of course, is to shareholders and creditors, not to consumers. Witness the abortive auction for Specialized Loan Servicing by Computershare of Australia. The offering of private label servicer Select Portfolio Servicing by Credit Suisse and now UBS AG is another example of shareholder value destruction. Homepoint was basically a liquidation from the 2021 IPO. 

When progressive politicians in Washington yowl about risk in the financial markets, it is usually really about risk to the personalities in question and financing their careers. There is no appreciable risk to consumers or the taxpayer from mortgage servicers, which like Black Rock and UBS are basically asset managers working for a fee. Bureaucrats like Chopra simply raise operating costs.

More than any real world problem posed by IMBs, it is the government in all of its manifestations that poses a significant risk to the world of mortgage finance and the housing sector more generally.  Washington regulatory agencies seek to stifle the markets, limit liquidity and impose additional capital rules, strictures that must inevitably reduce economic growth and access to affordable housing.

The good news, of course, is that many of the proposals from the FHFA, HUD and other agencies are effectively modified or rolled back entirely (such as the debt-to-income calculation for loan-level pricing adjustments) once the industry trades and large issuers engage. 

In this case, Washington listened, but only after taking an inordinate amount of time and resources from private issuers, resources that are badly needed elsewhere. Would it be too much to ask for government agencies to vet ideas thoroughly before a public proposal? 

In other cases, however, as with the risk based capital rules proposed by Ginnie Mae and the capital rules already approved for the GSEs, Washington is definitely not listening. But then again, the industry did a lousy job of pushing back on the capital rules for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to our great disadvantage.

Despite the withdrawal of the LLPAs, personnel at the GSEs are still pressing issuers for “mission loans,” meaning loans to underserved and generally low-quality borrowers that are sought by the Biden Administration. Some issuers approaching the GSE cash windows have been told that they will not receive attractive pricing unless the pools include mission loans. 

But sadly, there are few cases where a lender could or should advise a consumer to take out a conventional loan vs. FHA/VA. And the execution from the GSEs is hardly attractive.

The changes in GSE loan pricing and other policy changes reflect the FHFA’s focus on implementing the enterprise capital requirements put into place by Thompson, even while paying lip service to progressive goals. Garrett Hartzog, Principal of FundamentalAdvisory and Consulting notes in a comment in NMN:

“The Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework is going to dramatically transform GSE pricing in ways the industry hasn’t begun to contemplate. Understanding the ERCF means being able to mentally reconcile increasing risk-based pricing (the DTI-based fee) and decreasing the level of risk-based pricing (the credit score/LTV matrices). What’s more, people need only read Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s comment letters during the rulemaking process to understand that g-fees will ultimately experience a dramatic increase as a result of the ERCF.”

If FHFA raises guarantee fees for the GSEs in line with the capital rule, then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will no longer be competitive for larger, high-FICO loans. But poor execution at the cash window and higher g-fees are just some of the issues facing the GSEs as defaults rise and loan put backs also increase.

A number of issuers complain about an increasing tide of loan repurchase requests coming from the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. One prominent industry CEO known for his ability to “see around corners” laughs at the fuss so far and told NMN: “The GSEs are just practicing for the real push back. This is just a dress rehearsal.”

Meanwhile, the FHFA has just rolled out a new program whereby all large conventional issuers must have pre-funding quality control (QC) in place for all loans going through their systems by Labor Day. For larger correspondent shops, this could mean dozens of new hires and hundreds of thousands in new annual expenses.  Apparently the QC personnel at the GSEs did not know about the change.

One angry issuer tells NMN: “If your volume is mostly FHA/VA, it does not matter to the FHFA. They want QC on all loans.  If my volume is mostly delegated correspondent, it does not matter. I’m buying closed loans, but it does not matter.” 

Most issuers contacted by NMN say they cannot comply with the new QC edict from FHFA. The lack of appreciation for market realities within the FHFA mirrors the situation in much of official Washington, with regulators working against the best interests of consumers and the entire private mortgage and housing industry by reducing volumes and liquidity.

Ironically, even as the FHFA is becoming the focus of increased industry concerns, Ginnie Mae President Alanna McCargo is now focused on problems faced by issuers. The new partial claim regime put in place by the FHA to help finance loss mitigation for Ginnie Mae servicers evidences this concern. 

The CEO of one lender that focuses on underserved communities told NMN: “Ginnie Mae understands that they need to let us run our businesses as delinquency rates rise. Until interest rates fall and volumes improve, this is a war of attrition among lenders.”

Lenders hoping for lower rates in 2023 and that are dragging their feet on cost cutting will not survive in many cases. With the markets extending spreads on late vintage production, the MBS with 6% and 7% coupons, higher for longer seems to be the plan in residential mortgages in 2023. Hope is not a strategy.

Source: nationalmortgagenews.com

Apache is functioning normally

Purchase mortgage rates this week dropped 11 basis points to 5.70%, according to the latest Freddie Mac PMMS Index, ending a two-week climb following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike earlier this month.

A year ago at this time, 30-year fixed rate purchase rates were at 2.98%. The PMMS, a government-sponsored enterprise index, accounts solely for purchase mortgages reported by lenders during the past three days.

“The rapid rise in mortgage rates has finally paused, largely due to the countervailing forces of high inflation and the increasing possibility of an economic recession,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

Another index showed the 30-year conforming rates also slid from last week.

Black Knight’s Optimal Blue OBMMI pricing engine, which includes some refinancing data — but excludes cash-out refis to avoid skewing averages – measured the 30-year conforming rate at 5.89% Wednesday, down slightly from last week’s 5.9%. The 30-year fixed-rate jumbo was at 5.42% Wednesday, up from 5.33% from the previous week, according to the Black Knight index.

Khater expects the dip in mortgage rates will also slow down home price growth.  

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“This pause in rate activity should help the housing market rebalance from the bottleneck growth of a seller’s market to a more normal pace of home appreciation,” Khater said. 

Mortgage application volume rose 0.7% last week led by refinancing applications and a slight uptick in conventional loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. After increasing 65 basis points during the past three weeks, the 30-year fixed rate declined 14 basis points last week, the MBA said. 

Refi application rose 1.9% from the previous week and purchase application marginally increased 0.1% from a week earlier.

Mortgage rates tend to move in concert with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which reached 3.10% Wednesday, down from 3.16% a week before. The federal funds rate doesn’t directly dictate mortgage rates, but it does steer market activity to create higher rates and reduce demand.

Following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points on June 15, mortgage rates have been showing an upward trend for the past two weeks.

According to Freddie Mac, the 15-year fixed-rate purchase mortgage averaged 4.83% with an average of 0.9 point, down from last week’s 4.92%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.26% a year ago. 

The 5-year ARM averaged 4.50% up from 4.41% the previous week. The product averaged 2.54% a year ago. 

Economists expect the tightening monetary policy will reduce originations in 2022 and 2023. The MBA expects loan origination volume to drop about 40% to about $2.4 trillion this year, from last year’s $4 trillion. Meanwhile, the MBA expects 6.53 million existing and new home sales in 2022, compared to 6.9 million in 2021. 

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

After the recent extraordinary show of force defending changes to LLPAs by federal regulators and their friends, the forest through the trees risk remains in focus to me.

One of the great concerns I have, as both a former regulator and the former head of a major industry trade association, is the downside risk of keeping the GSEs in conservatorship any longer. For me, it’s really a question about the lesser of two evils.

What’s the greater risk to housing: an endless series of FHFA directors who change seats with each political administration and then proceed to tinker with policy in pursuit of political priorities? Or, the risk of releasing Fannie and Freddie without firmly legislating some of the reforms that I and many others advocated for, going back to the early years of conservatorship?

Make no mistake about it, I sat firmly entrenched for years opposing the “recap and release” crowd, to the point where the camps on both sides of the issue were in almost pitched warfare. The Mortgage Bankers Association argued that Congressional reform should precede any effort to release the GSEs. In fact I testified in front of Congress in 2017 stating such.

But today I now see the risks of letting this drag on into perpetuity without resolve. As each succeeding FHFA director comes into the role the industry, potential homeowners, lenders and more will face the risk of a cascading series of policy initiatives being implemented by the GSEs at the behest of the FHFA, regardless of whatever protests that may come from the respective staffs at either GSE.

While the latest was this clearly manipulated LLPA pricing structure and the now failed attempt at a DTI cap, the list of fees added to 2-4 unit homes, second homes, cash-out refinances, and more appear to be focused on political objectives and not actual risk.

In fact, MBA traditionally argued that g-fees and other pricing methods at the GSEs should only reflect the actual risks of the loans and not be used for other purposes. Prior to the collapse of Fannie and Freddie, pre 2008, the GSEs would give preferred pricing to their largest sellers in what was known as “alliance” agreements. The spread in pricing between a large seller and a small one was significant.

I remember early in my career at MBA taking three CEOs of independent mortgage banks to meet with then Acting FHFA Director Ed DeMarco to argue against any price disparity based on anything but the actual risk of the loan. And DeMarco responded, almost completely eliminating the pricing differences during his tenure.

But today we have more to be concerned with. You see, the LLPA changes, while small in impact, were just part of the slippery slope of adjusting fees and policies to make the GSEs do business differently and to get them to focus more on entry-level homebuyers.

The Urban Institute puts out a monthly chart book that is chock-full of incredible data about our marketplace. In the most recent May release, they show just how hard it is for the GSEs to expand access to minorities who make up a significant share of new first-time homebuyers.

image-17

As the chart above shows, it’s the Ginnie Mae programs, FHA in particular, that completely dwarf the efforts of the GSEs in this regard. And while these modest changes to LLPAs might help, there is far more that impedes the ability of the GSEs to be effective in this area.

But FHFA hasn’t stopped there. There is the implementation of goals focused on LIP (low income purchase loans) and VLIP (very low income purchase loans) that could result in a number of unintentional distortions to pricing and credit availability. It’s all in their affordability goals and, while complicated, we can already see distortions.

image-18

The goals, shown in the chart above, are clear, but if you look at how the GSEs have performed historically against these numbers, the fact is that there are many years over the last decade where these goals would have been missed.

But now things are changing. The GSEs are using the cash window to buy more of these LIP and VLIP loans, reducing the effectiveness of the cash window for other purposes. We are seeing the GSEs begin to selectively reduce the volume of high-balance purchases in order to improve the percentages.

Over the course of 2022, it appears that Freddie may have begun offering selected customers pricing incentives for lower balance owner-occupied purchase loans and also allowed customers with greater numbers of these loans to increase their delivery percentages.

Fannie Mae, on the other hand, seems to have required customers to simply deliver a representative mix of VLIP and LIP loans to both GSEs. Since Fannie Mae had lower delivery percentages with selected customers that had more of the lower balance loans, they believe they did not meet some of the enterprise housing goals for 2022.

The need to hit the targets is forcing the GSEs to reduce the ability of sellers to deliver what the market will bear and instead deliver to the mix the objectives that they need. The problem here is that they are turning to negative incentives.

Facing a market that is not producing loans at the aspirational levels of the current VLIP and LIP goals, the GSEs appear to have turned a corner. They are transitioning from positive incentives that might promote greater production of housing goals loans, to now imposing disincentives, from both a pricing and volume perspective, that create an adverse impact on a significant majority of GSE owner-occupied purchase borrowers.

Said differently, the GSEs are not able to produce enough VLIP and LIP “numerator” loans, so they have no alternative but to try to reduce the non-VLIP and LIP “denominator” loans in an effort to achieve the ratios that FHFA established.

Look, the GSEs have always had affordable housing goals. What has changed is that they no longer have a retained portfolio that can be used to help meet these goals through bulk purchases. But more importantly, this new structure is forcing pricing distortions which we are already seeing blatantly though the LLPA structure, but even more so through changes to usage of the cash window, disincentives to sellers to reduce higher balance loans, and more.

All of this will lead to hurting the mainstream borrowers that the GSEs have always served.

As shown above in the chart showing the GSEs’ mix to other sources, perhaps we need to think differently here. Yes, reasonable goals make sense for the GSEs. But all the programs within Ginnie Mae still dwarf any ability the GSEs have to significantly change the market.

But the greater question we all need to ask is this: is the lesser of evils the need to release the GSEs from conservatorship and allow them to return to a more self-managed business environment? This would lessen the ability of their regulator to use these two companies for political purposes, which might distort the market in ways that are ultimately more harmful than any gains they may make along the way.

For me, I have turned this corner. The GSEs are far too important to be overly manipulated in ways that might hurt execution for the traditional homebuyer in these programs. There are other ways to explicitly support affordable housing objectives. This to me is just too slippery a slope.

As I see the forest through the trees, I am faced with a new conclusion. We need to release the GSEs from conservatorship as soon as possible. There is too much at risk to the housing finance system over time as we erode their core business models for political purposes.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

While there’s a lot of uncertainty and doom and gloom in the world right now due to COVID-19, one bright spot appears to be mortgage rates.

Sure, they’ve been on a rollercoaster ride of late as lenders grapple with secondary market upheaval and capacity issues, but the 30-year fixed remains near record low territory.

It averaged 3.50% last week, per the latest Freddie Mac survey, which given the environment right now should absolutely be taken with a grain of salt.

But once the Fed’s new MBS buying spree pays dividends, we might see some normalcy with interest rates again, and hopefully a more stable mortgage industry.

Wells Fargo Pegs the 30-Year Fixed at 2.90% for Much of 2020

Wells forecast

That brings us to a forecast from Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. mortgage lender on total volume, which pens a weekly economic commentary.

In it, they note that the conventional mortgage rate for the second and third quarter of 2020 is expected to average 2.90%. And only rise to 2.95% for the fourth quarter of 2020.

That’s down from 3.30% in the first quarter, and a sign that low mortgage rates should persist despite the recent disruptions partially attributed to COVID-19.

The caveat here is their forecast probably relies on somewhat normal market conditions, for which these are most definitely not.

This explains why Quicken Loans CEO Jay Farner was quick to dampen the possibility of a 30-year fixed below 3%.

These aren’t normal times, and lenders are under no pressure to lower mortgage rates more than they already are.

If you’ve got more demand than you know what to do with, why would you lower the price? The answer is you wouldn’t.

Spread Between 10-Year Bond Yield and Mortgage Rates Near All-Time High

10-year yield

  • The 10-year bond yield is close to its all-time low
  • The spread between mortgage rates and 10-year yields is near an all-time high
  • If spreads normalize over time it’s possible the 30-year fixed could dip below 2%
  • But busy lenders have little incentive to lower mortgage rates right now

For those who look at the 10-year bond yield to get an idea of the current price or direction of long-term mortgage rates, it’s becoming increasingly flimsy.

Per the latest insight report from mortgage advisory Stratmor Group, the spread between 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the 10-year bond yield recently increased to 250 basis points, which is nearly an all-time high.

In more normal times, the spread is close to 170 basis points, so those watching the 10-year plummet to new all-time lows might be disappointed, at least for now.

At last glance, the 10-year yield was around 0.65%. If we add 250 basis points, we get a 30-year fixed around 3.15%, which sounds about right with some mortgage lenders.

If the spread was more typical, lenders could be offering the 30-year fixed at closer to 2.50%. But don’t hold your breath.

Again, they’ve got no incentive to lower interest rates from where they are at the moment. So no, you aren’t getting a 0% mortgage rate or anything close.

Remember, apply for a mortgage when things are slow if you want the true discount passed along.

Speaking of, there’s certainly a case for waiting to refinance your mortgage.

Some arguments include a lower interest rate, lenders who are less busy and more attentive, and the idea that there might some more favorable forbearance offered to existing homeowners.

The possible downsides to waiting to refinance include the possibility of interest rates rising, and also the grim chance one might lose their job in the meantime, or suffer some break in employment that jeopardizes the entire application.

Those who need a jumbo loan may want to move a little faster, given there have been some dislocations in the non-agency market due to liquidity concerns, along with tighter underwriting standards.

Just take a look at non-QM lending, which has all but been put on hold in the past week or so due to warehouse lenders pulling the plug on anything deemed too high-risk.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com