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Mortgage loans refinancing declined for the week ending March 22, contributing to a drop in home loans applications even as interest rates decelerated, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.
The Refinance Index fell 2 percent from the prior week and was 9 percent lower compared to a year ago. Overall, mortgage applications dropped by 0.7 percent at a time when the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked down to 6.93 percent from the prior week’s 6.97 percent.
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
Read more: What is Mortgage Refinancing and How Does It Work?
The drop in refinancing applications comes as the housing market has been in flux nationwide.
Borrowing costs for home loans jumped to their highest since the turn of the century last year, peaking at about 8 percent in the fall. That jump in mortgage rates was sparked by the Federal Reserve hiking rates to their highest in more than two decades as policymakers moved to tighten financial conditions to battle soaring inflation. Expectations that the central bank will start lowering those rates has helped bring mortgage rates down.
Recent data suggests that buyers are still looking for lower borrowing costs. New home sales declined in February, amid high mortgage rates that economists say depressed activity as the housing market enters its busy Spring season.
Kan said on Wednesday that still elevated mortgage rates are still keeping buyers on the sidelines.
“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market,” he noted.
Kan suggest limited housing inventory is also proving to be a hindrance to the market.
“Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6-percent by the end of the year,” he said. “Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Read more: Best Mortgage Lenders
The lock-in effect was particularly acute in the existing homes market. Most homeowners have low mortgage rates which has discouraged them from putting their properties in the market if that means they may have to acquire a new home with borrowing costs closer to 7 percent. About 90 percent of homeowners own mortgages that are under 6 percent, according to real estate platform Redfin.
There have been some signs recently that the existing homes market is recovering after struggling mightily last year.
In February, sales of previously owned homes rose by nearly 10 percent.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
The average monthly mortgage payment for a home purchase rose in recent weeks, even as the tight housing market shows signs of loosening.
Payments increased 10% year-over-year to an all-time high of $2,721 for the four weeks ended March 24, Redfin said on Thursday morning.
The Mortgage Bankers Association also released its February Purchase Applications Payment Index the same day, and found the median disbursement increased by $50 from January, to $2,184. That figure is a $123 increase from February 2023.
The PAPI value increased 2.4% to 170.7 in February from 166.8 in January. For the same month last year, the index was 169.7, a 1.1% increase, with the year-over-year change attributed to a 4.8% rise in median income besides the 6% rise in payments.
Rates sticking around the 7% range is a contributing factor, the MBA said.
“Challenging affordability conditions and low housing supply are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines this spring,” said Edward Seiler, associate vice president, housing economics, and executive director of the Research Institute for Housing America, in a press release. “The eventual, expected decline in rates in the coming months will hopefully spur new activity in the housing market.”
However, Redfin pointed out that during the period, new listings were up 15% from the four weeks ended March 24, 2023, the most in nearly three years. The total number of homes is 6% higher, the biggest increase in approximately one year.
“High mortgage rates aren’t deterring buyers as much as they were last year; a lot of people want to get in now before prices go up more,” said Redfin agent Rachel Riva based in Miami, in a press release. “All of my recent listings have gone under contract in under 10 days, and most of them have received multiple offers.”
Buyers are dealing with elevated mortgage rates in a number of ways, Riva pointed out. “Some are making high down payments to lower their monthly payments, and some are willing to take on a high rate now in hopes of refinancing when and if rates come down.”
Median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the first quarter compared with historical averages in more than 95% of U.S. counties that Attom Data Solutions had enough data to analyze.
Meanwhile, major expenses on those homes were 32.3% of the average national wage in the first quarter, several points above common lending guidelines.
As bad as that data sounds, it is actually a quarter-to-quarter improvement for both, although worse than one-year prior, Attom said.
The portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments including property taxes and insurance remains up almost 3 percentage points from one year ago and 11 points higher from early in 2021.
“The picture for home buyers is brightening a little again as affordability measures have improved for the second quarter in a row,” said Rob Barber, Attom’s CEO, in a press release.
Even though the prospect of owning a home remains a financial stretch or even a pipe dream, for many households, with mortgage rates coming down from high points near 8% and home prices growing only by modest amounts, “it’s gotten a bit easier for average wage earners to afford a home so far this year,” Barber said. “The upcoming Spring buying season will say a lot about whether home prices remain stable enough for this trend to continue.”
In only 13 counties nationwide were home prices more affordable than the historical average, but even that needed to be taken with a grain of salt because two of those locales were New York County, also known as Manhattan, and San Francisco County, whose entirety is the city limits. Those are traditionally among the highest priced markets in the U.S.
Source: nationalmortgagenews.com
Purchase applications remained virtually flat (-0.2%), reflecting continued hesitancy among homebuyers who await further rate decreases and more available listings. Refinance activity also declined 2% from the previous week. Read more: Housing market slowdown hits sellers “Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that … [Read more…]
Now that we are right in the middle of the spring buying season, my inventory model is simple: with higher mortgage rates, just like last year, we should be able to grow weekly active inventory between 11,000 – 17,000 on some weeks. Unfortunately, I batted a whopping zero last year since inventory growth never hit that level for even one week — even when mortgage rates hit 8%. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, which is my peak rate forecast.
While I am thrilled that new listings data is growing year over year, something I have been anticipating for some time, the growth in 2024 has been disappointing because I had expected a bit more by now. This was my big talking point on CNBC earlier in the year. Still, new listing data is a positive story. Here are the number of new listings for last week over the last several years:
For context, new listings data at this time in 2010 ran at 326,266.
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates increase and demand gets hit.
As inventory and demand grow year over year, the price-cut percentage data increases year over year. So, we will keep tracking this data line to see how high it goes this year. We keep it simple: higher inventory softness in demand means price growth is weakening. As we can see below, the year-over-year data is showing a higher percentage of price cuts.
For those of you who have followed me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work and therefore for the mortgage rate discussion. A break above this level would send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8%. So far, so good here.
We had the PCE inflation report come out Friday and because some people were expecting a hotter number than estimates, it was perceived to be bullish for rate cuts. However, the markets were closed Friday, so we have to wait and see how trading goes on Monday. The 10-year yield channel is between 4.25%-3.80%, which looks correct as long as the economic data stays firm and jobless claims don’t break higher. This means mortgage rates will likely remain in the upper range of my 2024 forecast of 6.75%-7.25%.
There was not too much action in mortgage rates last week, but with jobs week coming up, we could see some movement. As you can see below, the 10-year yield has made a massive move from 2022 and has stayed above 4%, even with the progress we have made with inflation. Always remember, when it comes to discussions about rates and the Fed pivoting, it’s always labor over inflation data.
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 15% year over year.
Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and one flat print. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints and one flat print.
What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? Purchase apps made a solid positive run up until mortgage rates started to get back over 7%. This was similar to 2023 data, when purchase apps had 12 weeks of a positive run-up until rates moved toward 7% and then 8%.
First, the trading on Monday will be exciting because of the PCE inflation report; some argue it was hot and some say it wasn’t. The market decides this, and bond trading will judge it on Monday morning.
Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell talked on Friday. I believe Powell’s crucial comment was that the Fed won’t overreact to significant disinflation or heated inflation reports. I think some people missed this. If you want to understand why the markets still have three rate cuts priced in, it’s this mindset.
Then it’s jobs week, with four labor reports, and, of course, for me, it’s labor over inflation data, so buckle up!
Want more context? On the PowerHouse podcast with HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins, I discussed why the data lines we look at in the Housing Market Tracker are so critical for those in the housing industry.
Source: housingwire.com
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index moved lower last week, apparently indifferent to a slight improvement in mortgage interest rates. The Index, which measures loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index declined 0.4 percent compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index decreased 2.0 percent from the previous week and was 9.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 30.8 percent of total applications compared to 31.2 percent the previous week.
The Purchase Index ticked down 0.2 percent both before and after its seasonal adjustment. It was 16.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market. Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6 percent by the end of the year. Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Additional Highlights from the MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Mortgage demand remained subdued for the second consecutive week despite slightly lower mortgage rates.
Mortgage applications decreased by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ending March 22, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey.
“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement. “Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6% by the end of the year. Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Both purchase and refinance activity decreased during the week. Purchase loan application volume dropped by 0.2% from one week earlier. Meanwhile, refinance volume fell by 2% from the prior week.
As of Wednesday, the 30-year fixed rate on HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center stood at 7.16%.
The MBA survey shows that the average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed loans with conforming balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.93%, down from 6.97% last week. Meanwhile, rates on jumbo loans (balances greater than $766,550) remained unchanged week over week at 7.14%.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) share of total applications decreased to 12% last week, down from 12.1% the week before. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) share fell to 12%, down from 12.1% the week before. And the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) share remained unchanged at 0.5%.
The MBA survey, conducted weekly since 1990, covers more than 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.
As rates were hitting year-to-date highs, the fear was that the Fed would go hawkish in their March meeting, which could push mortgage rates toward 8% and tank 2024 demand. Thankfully, that didn’t happen, and — as I said on the HousingWire Daily podcast last week —we dodged a bullet.
Let’s look at the tracker data to see how mortgage rates are impacting the housing data as we settle into spring.
For those of you who have me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work. A break of this level could send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8% for spring 2024. Not only did this not happen last week, but bond yields fell during the week. As we can see below, we have held the line once again, but we aren’t out of the dark forest yet.
As we can see in the chart below, the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have made a massive move higher since 2022. However, whenever the 10-year yield falls with duration, as we saw toward the end of 2022 and into 2023, it sends mortgage rates lower, and we can grow sales from these record-low levels.
Purchase application data really moves on mortgage rates — something we saw in late 2022 and into 2023. As rates ticked up recently, purchase apps were down 1% week to week and down 14% year over year.
Since November 2023, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints. What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? When mortgage rates fall, demand picks up. Imagine a housing market with just 6% mortgage rates or lower — it would be growing like what we see in the new home sales market.
Weekly housing inventory data
The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly. The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also new listings. We’re not seeing seller stress in the inventory data but just a typical increase in inventory when rates are higher, which looks perfectly normal.
Here is a look at the inventory last week:
New listing data is growing! This data line is slightly lower than I hoped for for 2024, but we are still growing. Right now we are a tad below the levels we saw in 2022 before mortgage rates spiked over 6%. Here’s the weekly new listing data for last week over several previous years:
For some historical context, in 2011, new listings this week were at 362,339 .
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Keep it simple here, folks: inventory is growing year over year; if demand stays weaker with higher rates, the price-cut percentage data should increase faster, and if demand picks up with lower rates, it shouldn’t. As we can see below, the data line is very seasonal, like most housing data.
Next week, we have new home sales, pending home sales and the national home price index data. I will be on CNBC Monday morning to discuss the new home sales report. Of course, the Fed’s main inflation indicator, the PCE, will come out on Friday, which is a trading holiday, which will be key for rates short-term until we have the next Fed meeting. So, we have a lot of data to work with this week.
Source: housingwire.com
My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. The growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot on the year-over-year data, but mortgage rates haven’t gone down, which isn’t surprising to me as my mantra has been: “Labor over Inflation.”
For 2024, the 10-year yield running between 3.80%-4.25% looks perfectly normal to me as long as the economic data is firm and the Fed hasn’t pivoted. I can’t see the 10-year yield below 3.37% unless the labor market breaks — meaning jobless claims over 323,000 on the four-week moving average. That means I can’t see mortgage rates going below 6%, especially with the spreads being bad, until the labor market or the economy gets weaker.
However, now we are at the same spot as last year, near the critical 4.34% level and we have the Federal Reserve meeting coming up. This is a big week, as you can see in the chart below.
With mortgage rates above 7% again, we will have to see what the Fed says at this meeting because, in the past few meetings, they have made it clear that policy is restrained and that they don’t want it to get too restrictive. This is what happened last year when the 10-year yield headed to 5% and we had 8% mortgage rates. However, there is a risk of the Fed sounding too hawkish again which would send the 10-year yield higher.
As mortgage rates have been falling recently, we saw back-to-back weeks of growth in the purchase application data, which aligns with what we saw last year. Remember, we are working from extremely depressed levels in this data line, so the bar is so low that it doesn’t take much to move the needle.
Since November 2023, we have had 10 positive and five negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus five negative prints. Clearly, if mortgage rates can head toward 6% and hold we will get rising demand, but I believe the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be able to sleep at night if more people were buying homes.
The one positive story for me in housing this year is that inventory is growing year over year for both active inventory and new listing data. I know it’s not a lot, but growth is growth. The one benefit of higher rates is that inventory can grow in the post-2010 qualified mortgage world as long as higher rates create softness in demand. It hasn’t been a lot of growth historically, but growth is growth.
Last year, the seasonal inventory bottom happened on April 14, which was the the longest time to find a seasonal bottom ever. This means we will show more than normal inventory growth until we get past tax day 2024.
Here is a look at the inventory last week:
New listings are growing yearly, which is another plus for housing. Last year, II picked up on the trend that new listing data was creating a historical bottom as the data line wasn’t heading lower with higher rates. The growth is a tad lighter than what I was hoping for. But as someone who didn’t buy the mortgage rate lockdown premise that inventory can’t grow with higher rates, this year is a good test case.
Here’s the weekly new listing data for last week over several previous years:
For some historical context, new listing data this week in 2010 was 306,020.
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Inventory is higher than last year, and we might have found the bottom already, so as the year progresses, the number of homes taking a price cut should increase. The goal is to see how the mortgage rate variable plays into this data line. This is why this week’s Fed meeting is key, to see if the 10-year yield can break higher, which should increase the price-cut data.
Here’s the percentage of homes that took a price cut before selling last week and how that compares to the same week in previous years:
The Federal Reserve’s language and the dot plot are the two things to watch this week. The dot plot should still show many Fed members having two to three rate cuts in play for 2024, with some going the opposite way from that group. We also will have tons of housing data coming out this week, including the builders’ confidence, housing starts, existing home sales, and Zillow home price data. However, the key is the Fed, Fed and the Fed!
Source: housingwire.com
The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously. In my 2024 forecast, I put the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand will be tested at 3.37%.
This means mortgage rates should stay between 5.75%-7.25% with a baseline assumption that the spreads will be bad for most of the year. The 10-year yield has traded above 4.25% this year, but mortgage rates didn’t reach 7.25%, so the spreads have acted better than I thought they would.
We recently dodged a bullet when the 10-year yield got close but didn’t break above 4.34%, which could have led to mortgage rates back to 8% again. We have bounced off that key line several times and last week, even with jobs data and Powell talking to Congress, the 10-year yield headed lower and mortgage rates ended the week at 6.85%. The chart below shows last week’s 10-year yield trading (March 4-8).
In the chart below, you can see why I have discussed the critical levels for the 10-year yield in the past: the bottom is around the 3.80% level and the top is the 4.34% level. We haven’t broken either yet. Given our current economic data and without a new critical global event, this range should stick. It’s a plus for mortgage rates that the U.S. dollar isn’t getting stronger but slowly falling — the world can’t handle it getting more robust. Powell said that Fed policy is restrictive, so if the 10-year yield breaks above 4.34%, I expect the Fed to be more dovish as they don’t want policy to get too restrictive.
Here is a longer-term look at the 10-year yield to give you the scale of the move in recent years.
As mortgage rates rose from 6.63% to 7.16% earlier this year, we had five straight weeks of negative purchase application data, something we didn’t see last year. However, that changed last week. With rates going lower, we saw 11% week-to-week growth.
Since November 2023, we have had nine positive and five negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had three positive prints versus five negative prints. This is a carbon copy of what happened in 2023 when rates went higher. However, we were worked from a lower bar in home sales last year. Moving the needle doesn’t take much since we all know we have buyers ready to go and home sales are at record lows.
The positive story for housing in 2024 has been the inventory growth we have seen year-over-year. Yes, I know it’s not a lot of homes, but growth is growth, people! The farther away we stay away from the savagely unhealthy housing market of March 2022, the happier I will be.
Now, one thing about the year-over-year inventory data, the seasonal bottom last year happened on April 14, which was the longest time ever to find a seasonal bottom. With this information at hand, the year-over-year comps will show more growth than a traditional year, when we would find a seasonal bottom in January or February.
Here is a look at inventory last week:
New listings data is growing yearly, but it’s still a bit too low for my liking in 2024, as I was hoping for more of a rebound because this data line was running at the lowest levels ever recorded in 2023. However, growth is growth, and if we can match spring 2022 and 2021 levels, I will be a happy camper.
Weekly new listing data for the last week over several previous years:
For some historical context, new listing data this week in 2011 was 362,248.
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Inventory is higher than last year, and we might have found the bottom already in inventory, so as the year progresses, the number of homes taking a price-cut should increase. The goal is to see how the mortgage rate variable plays into this data line.
Here is the price cut percentage for the last week over the past several years. As you can see below, in 2022 when inventory was at all-time lows and mortgage rates were sub-4 %, the price-cut percentage data was at a savagely unhealthy low level.
We are going from jobs week into inflation week when we will get CPI and PPI inflation reports. The CPI data will be interesting because every nerd in America said the same thing about the last CPI report. The report included a giant odd OER print that deviated wildly and made the data hotter than it should have. We shall see if that normalizes in this report or the next. As we all know, the apartment boom-to-bust is creating more disinflation data with apartment rents. If the inflation reports come in much softer than anticipated, we can see lower mortgage rates continue this week.
Source: housingwire.com