As we started 2024, the signals in the U.S. real estate market were for inventory growth, sales growth and home-price growth across the U.S. At the time, I observed that even if mortgage rates stayed flat, the momentum seemed to be in the cards for broad, slow growth in the market.
However, mortgage rates didn’t stay flat. They climbed starting Jan. 1 and as of today, March 18, mortgage rates are 30-40 basis points higher than Jan. 1. Rates are off their recent peak of a couple weeks ago, but the latest economic news is still very strong, and the markets are growing less sanguine about interest rates easing significantly soon. Last year, the most common view was that mortgage rates would fall in 2024. That hasn’t materialized yet and many people are less optimistic that it will.
We’ll learn more about the future of interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Although I don’t have any capacity to predict interest rates, I do know what happens to the housing market if rates rise or fall from here.
Of my initial expectations this year — rising inventory, rising sales rates, rising prices — only rising inventory remains clear at this moment as we finish Q1 with rising interest rates. I talk frequently about how rising rates creates rising inventory. That’s true again this week in the data. My other two expectations, slowly rising sales volume, and slowly rising prices, are less compelling. Let’s look at the data.
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Housing inventory
Looking at last week’s numbers:
There are 507,000 single-family homes on the market in the U.S.
That’s 1.3% more than a week prior, 22% more than a year ago, and 105% more than two years ago.
This week in 2022 was the last of the 3% mortgages. Inventory and rates rose in lockstep starting then.
There are 250,000 more homes on the market now then when we exited the pandemic boom in March 2022.
At this moment in 2022, interest rates and inventory had started rising quickly together as the pandemic boom ended. Mortgage rates were still in the 3s in early March 2022. By April they were in the 4s and by May they were in the 5s.
As mortgage rates rise, so do the number of unsold homes: Demand slows, inventory grows. As the economy remains surprisingly strong, mortgage rates are staying higher for longer than people predicted and as long as rates stay high, inventory will keep growing.
While inventory is growing across the country, some markets are way more impacted and already have more homes on the market than in 2019 or 2020 just before the pandemic. Nearly all markets are showing inventory growth over last year now and this is expanding every week.
The takeaway? If mortgage rates continue to rise to 7.5% or all the way to 8% again, we will see a pretty dramatic increase in unsold inventory. But if rates finally fall, let’s say to 6.5% or lower, we’ll see consumers act very quickly and this inventory growth will reverse. Lower rates mean more buyer competition and less unsold inventory.
New listings
Last week, 59,000 new single-family listings came to market. New listings volume continues to run ahead of last year and we see more sellers than last year. In fact, last week, after including the 16,000 immediate sales, there were 24% more new listings than the same week a year ago.
Last year was probably a record low for mid-March as we had very few sellers. For the rest of 2024 we should expect to have more sellers than a year ago, which is a very good thing. It was not that long ago that we had 70,000 or 80,000 new listings each week in March. We’re at 59,000 right now so the seller volume is climbing, but it’s still a third fewer than in recent years. So nationally there isn’t any sign of supply and demand getting out of balance.
Home prices
Demand is slow as mortgage rates continue to stay in the 7s. Supply is gradually increasing and demand is generally soft. As a result, some of the leading indicators for future home sales prices are starting to weaken.
One obvious place to watch this pricing transition is in the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This week, 30.9% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up half a percent this week and is now more than a year ago.
It’s totally normal to have around a third of homes on the market take a price reduction from the original list price before they sell. I’m going to watch the slope of this curve as this chart will show exactly how quickly the market reacts to higher mortgage rates. This is a pivotal time for measuring buyer demand.
A longer-term signal is the asking prices of all the homes on the market. The median price of single-family homes in the U.S. right now is $435,000. That’s up a notch from a week earlier and just 1.2% higher than a year ago.
Again, in January I expected this price data to be accelerating a little more quickly than it has. Home prices peak each year in June before receding a bit in the second half of the year. The question now is: will we surpass that all-time high this year or will it get delayed until 2025?
The median price of the new listings inched down to $419,900 last week and the new listings cohort is priced 5% higher than a year ago. The new listings are an excellent leading indicator for future home sales prices. The sellers and listing agents use all their collective wisdom and in aggregate they know exactly where to price the new listing. What this data tells us right now is that across the U.S. we have just narrowly increasing home prices this year so far. The signals are slightly weaker now than the data at the start of the year led me to expect.
Pending sales
This week saw 66,000 new contracts for single-family homes started. That’s 15% more than the same week a year ago. Since mortgage rates have been on the rise this year, the sales have been just barely above last year, so this week was probably a bit of an anomaly, but it is welcome nonetheless.
When we look at the price of the homes in contract but not yet sold — these are the pendings — we see that home sales prices are coming in about 4% higher than a year ago. The median price of all the homes in contract right now is $389,000. Home prices ended 2023 at 5-6% gains over the previous year, so home-price appreciation is compressing as mortgage rates have risen.
If rates stay steady around 7%, I don’t expect much price correction lower. If mortgage rates jump from here, I expect that we’ll see a step down in home prices like we saw in October of 2022.
Mortgage rates came down across all terms from a week ago, according to rate data collected by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans all receded.
While it’s expected that rates will gradually come down this year, the path might be bumpy.
At its Jan. 31 meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold off changing rates, but could cut rates in the future. At their March 20th meeting, the Fed will update their outlook on rates. Rate changes affect many areas of the economy, including the 10-year Treasury, a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages.
“Where the 10-Year Treasury yield goes, mortgage rates will follow,” says Ken Johnson of Florida Atlantic University. “In roughly the last two months, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 50 basis points. Depending on the source, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 48 basis points. Treasurys’ path remains a coin toss at this point.”
Rates accurate as of March 14, 2024.
The rates listed here are averages based on the assumptions indicated here. Actual rates displayed on-site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Thursday, March 14th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.
30-year mortgage rate declines, -0.18%
Today’s average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.84 percent, a decrease of 18 basis points from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 7.25 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay principal and interest of $654.59 for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s a decline of $12.06 from last week.
The popular 30-year mortgage has a number of advantages:
Lower monthly payment: Compared to a shorter term, such as 15 years, the 30-year mortgage offers lower, more affordable payments spread over time.
Stability: With a 30-year fixed mortgage, you lock in a set principal and interest payment, making it easier to plan your housing expenses for the long term. Remember: Your monthly housing payment can change if your homeowners insurance premiums and property taxes go up or, less likely, down.
Buying power: With lower payments, you might qualify for a larger loan amount or a more expensive home.
Flexibility. Lower monthly payments can free up some of your monthly budget for other goals, like building an emergency fund, contributing to retirement or college tuition, or saving for home repairs and maintenance.
15-year mortgage rate drops, -0.14%
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.42 percent, down 14 basis points from a week ago.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost around $867 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little more difficult to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll come out several thousand dollars ahead over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much more rapidly.
5/1 ARM moves lower, -0.11%
The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.35 percent, falling 11 basis points from a week ago.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are home loans that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These loan types are best for people who expect to refinance or sell before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be materially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.35 percent would cost about $622 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could climb hundreds of dollars higher afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
Current jumbo mortgage rate retreats, -0.12%
The average jumbo mortgage rate is 6.94 percent, a decrease of 12 basis points from a week ago. Last month on the 14th, the average rate for jumbo mortgages was greater than 6.94 at 7.31 percent.
At today’s average rate, you’ll pay a combined $661.28 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $8.06 lower, compared with last week.
Mortgage refinance rates
30-year fixed-rate refinance trends down, -0.20%
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 6.84 percent, down 20 basis points since the same time last week. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was higher at 7.27 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $654.59 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That represents a decline of $13.40 over what it would have been last week.
Where are mortgage rates going?
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates at its March meeting.
“The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year, in my view,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, “but rate cuts of three, four or even five rounds will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved.”
The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.
These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.
What today’s rates mean for you and your mortgage
While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
Keep in mind: You could save thousands over the life of your mortgage by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
More on current mortgage rates
Methodology
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.
What can employers do to make sure their financial benefits attract and serve a truly diverse workforce?
It’s a question that has become increasingly relevant since the Covid-19 pandemic shed a harsh light on the pervasive economic inequalities embedded in society and the workplace. While there have been gains in the average wealth of all demographic groups since 2019, the racial wealth gap remains stubbornly wide.
According to Federal Reserve data from the second quarter of 2023, Black families had about $986,000 less wealth, on average, compared with white families, while Hispanic families had about $992,000 less wealth, on average, than white families. Put more starkly: Black and Hispanic families had 24 cents for every $1 of white family wealth.
Even when they attend and graduate from college, minorities still face an uphill financial climb. According to the Education Data Initiative, Black college graduates owe an average of $25,000 more in student loan debt than white college graduates. Four years after graduation, black students owe an average of 188% more than white students borrowed.
And while women have increased their presence in higher-paying jobs traditionally dominated by men, the gender pay gap hasn’t gone away: On average, women are paid 83.7 percent as much as men, which amounts to a difference of $10,000 per year. The gaps are even larger for many women of color, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
Given these realities, it’s important that diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) programs and financial wellness initiatives are effectively combined to help address the problems of economic inequality throughout every segment of your workforce.
By helping underrepresented employees turn wages into long-term wealth, companies can play a pivotal role in driving financial success that impacts future generations and results in systemic change.
Where Do Financial Wellness and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Intersect?
These days, many employers of all sizes have a DE&I strategy or program in place to increase inclusion and remove bias and discrimination in the workplace. Financial wellness benefits are also growing in popularity as a way to attract, retain, and add value to employees.
While companies may actively promote both financial wellness and DE&I, they often overlook the potential synergy between the two. Understanding how these two human resource pillars work together can help amplify the relevance, effectiveness, and success of both programs throughout your workforce.
Traditionally, financial well-being programs have focused on long-term savings and investing for retirement. But it’s becoming increasingly apparent that this approach doesn’t meet all the needs of an increasingly diverse workforce.
Depending on the individual, financial success can come in many forms, not just having enough for retirement. Success might also include paying off debt, saving for emergencies, or buying a first home. Understanding your workforce and its diverse needs — as well as understanding the importance of a broad-based definition of financial well-being — helps put you at the nexus of your DE&I and financial wellness goals.
Recommended: How to Support Your Low-Wage Workforce
Can Financial Well-Being Initiatives Enhance Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in Your Workforce?
The answer is an overwhelming yes — as long as your financial well-being programs are designed to be customizable for employees on different financial footings with a range of financial goals and stresses. Here are some steps you can take to integrate your financial well-being and DE&I programs.
Ensure Fair Pay for All Employees
This may seem like a basic concept, but it still needs plenty of attention. Doing everything you can to close the race and gender pay gaps in your organization shows your commitment to both DE&I and financial well-being — and to making them work together.
Recommended: How Employers Can Help Close the Racial Wealth Gap
Embrace Flexible Financial Contribution Programs
Personalized, relevant financial benefits can help you meet your employees where they are in terms of financial challenges and goals. When you offer a range of financial well-being benefits, you give employees the power to choose the financial programs that can help them the most.
The pandemic highlighted for many people the need for short-term, goal-oriented savings as well as long-term investing. Programs that can resonate strongly with today’s diverse workforce and its many needs include: emergency savings accounts; student loan repayment programs, including 401(k) matches for employees paying off student loans; budget counseling, and debt management tools. Established college tuition reimbursement and retirement savings programs are also vital parts of a holistic financial wellness program.
Recommended: How Does an HR Team Implement a Student Loan Matching or Direct Repayment Benefit?
Get Creative
Don’t be afraid to think out of the box when it comes to expanding financial well-being programs so that you can include all employees. Many employers are reimagining traditional approaches to leaves and paid time off — for example, allowing employees to transfer unused PTO balances into accounts like emergency savings or 529 tuition savings plans.
Creativity is also important when it comes to education efforts. Simply offering new programs is not enough. Education efforts should be accessible, interactive, and customized so that each employee can find the information they need and act on it.
SoFi at Work has noticed that some employers are adopting a “learning journey” approach that allows workers to choose their own paths depending on where they are on their journey towards their individual financial goals and aspirations.
Recommended: Are Your Benefits Helping Women — Especially Moms — Achieve Financial Wellness?
Choose Credible Partners for a Sustainable Program
To provide this extra support and guidance across a broad spectrum of financial needs, you’ll need to choose credible partners that can provide expertise, platforms, and cost-effective services in specific areas. Good partners can help you launch personalized and sustainable programs that are accessible in the short-term, but also build the foundation for your department’s long-term goals.
The Takeaway
Employers can play a key role in ensuring that all employees have the same opportunities for financial success and control of their own financial futures. Democratizing financial well-being can not only create a more diverse and inclusive workplace, but ultimately a more equitable future for all of us.
SoFi at Work can help. We provide the benefits platforms and education resources that can enhance financial wellness throughout your workforce.
Photo credit: iStock/pixdeluxe
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Average mortgage rates climbed moderately last Friday. Indeed, they rose on every business day last week. However, that followed a week of mainly falls. And those rates begin this morning close to where they were at the start of March.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today barely move. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.12%
7.13%
+0.02
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.62%
6.65%
+0.03
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
+0.04
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.64%
6.66%
Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA
6.49%
7.17%
+0.01
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
+0.02
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.28%
7.38%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I doubt we’ll see mortgage rates enter a consistent downward trend much before the summer, and possibly later.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $81.35 from $80.62 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,159 from $2,162 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged up to 75 from 71 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Fed
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) begins a two-day meeting tomorrow. And a flurry of events is scheduled for the following afternoon.
Almost nobody expects an announcement of a cut in general interest rates on Wednesday. But events that afternoon include:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
These FOMC documents and the news conference may provide new insights into how the Fed’s thinking on future cuts to general interest rates is evolving. So, markets globally will be paying the closest attention to every word written and uttered.
And there is huge potential for Wednesday’s Fed events to move mortgage rates.
I covered this in last Saturday’s weekend edition. And I’ll brief you in more detail again on Wednesday morning so you’ll know what to look out for.
Other influences on mortgage rates this week
Most of the economic reports on this week’s calendar are unlikely to affect mortgage rates. It’s not impossible. But they cover areas of the economy that rarely interest the bond investors who largely determine those rates.
Today’s lone report is a good example. It’s the home builder confidence index for February, which came in as expected. I don’t recall the last time that had a perceptible influence on mortgage rates. And the same goes for tomorrow’s housing starts and building permits, also for February.
The two reports that might move mortgage rates this week are both March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One covers the services sector and the other manufacturing.
They’re both expected to show purchasing activity slowing modestly. But I’ll brief you more fully on what to expect on Wednesday.
Friday has no scheduled economic reports. However, three Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, have speaking engagements that day. Those could be an opportunity to reinforce messages communicated on Wednesday and to correct any misunderstandings. So, they could have an impact on mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Stav Gaon, from Academy Securities Inc., pointed out that this could be the largest holdback ever witnessed in this segment of the US securities market. This move not only poses immediate financial implications for the investors involved but also introduces a layer of unpredictability regarding how servicers will handle troubled assets moving forward. “This is … [Read more…]
Another reason why the Fed can let the CRE swoon rip.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The multifamily segment of Commercial Real Estate – apartments – is holding up better than office, retail (the Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown since 2017), and lodging, though it’s cracking too with some spectacular defaults over the past 12 months or so. Yet, US banks and thrifts and foreign banks hold only a small-ish portion.
Total mortgages backed by multifamily properties rose by 4.4% year-over-year in Q4, or by $88 billion, to $2.09 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, based on its own data, and on data from the Federal Reserve, Trepp, and the FDIC.
Of those mortgages:
US government agencies, US Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), state and local governments, and state and local government pension funds held 54.8%, or $1.09 trillion.
US banks and thrifts and foreign banks held 29.3%, or $612 billion.
Life insurers held 11.3%, or $235 billion.
Another 3.2%, or $67 billion, had been securitized into CMBS, CDOs, and ABS, and those securities were held by investors.
Other investors, including private pension funds and REITs, held 2%.
The blue line represents federal government backed entities – including MBS issued and guaranteed by those entities, Quite an interesting trend (chart via MBA):
The MBA excludes loans for acquisition, development and construction, and loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties.
For about a year, we’ve been reporting on how non-bank entities, from CMBS holders to PE firms, were on the hook for office and other CRE mortgages, how the biggest losses have hit these investors, particularly the CMBS investors, and not banks. And among the banks that it did hit, there were a slew of foreign banks.
But with the multifamily segment of CRE, it’s mostly federal, state, and local government entities, including their pension funds that are on the hook – meaning the taxpayers are on the hook for 54.8% of all multifamily mortgages.
And the Fed couldn’t care less about taxpayers. The Fed is worried about the banks, not a few individual banks, but about contagion across the banking system triggering a banking panic. But with the 4,026 US banks with $23 trillion in total assets holding only $612 billion in multifamily mortgages – well, that’s less than 3% of their total assets. In other words, the banking system overall isn’t fundamentally threatened by bad multifamily loan.
Even if many of the banks’ $612 billion in multifamily loans default, they’re secured by multifamily buildings with some value, so the losses are going to be only fraction of the $612 billion, spread over 4,026 banks with $23 trillion in total assets.
As always, some smaller banks with concentrated exposure in some markets may eventually topple under defaulted multifamily loans. Fitch thinks 49 tiny banks are heavily exposed to troubled multifamily loans, and some of those banks make topple. In nearly every year, some banks toppled, and it’s just part of the risks in the banking system, and it’s the FDIC’s job to mop up those local messes at investors’ expense.
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Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2024, we keep asking “are we there yet?” The more we ask, the farther we seem to be from the destination.
This trip began with all the best intentions. Softer inflation and cooler economic data led the Fed to expect an opportunity to cut rates several times in 2024. The Fed communicated as much in mid-December. Markets took things a step further with futures contracts pricing in 6 cuts by the end of the year. “6 rate cuts” was a refrain that echoed throughout the mortgage and housing industries. Suddenly, too many people were risking disappointment by not understanding the HIGHLY conditional logic behind the 6 cut mantra.
It wasn’t necessarily a mistake for the market to get so far ahead of the Fed’s official outlook. After all, the Fed has a history of cutting rates MUCH faster than its projections suggest. But the decision would ultimately be dependent on continued progress on inflation, and more economic cooling.
With the release of this week’s inflation data, we now have two consecutive months that raise serious objections to the notion that the Fed will be able to cut any time soon.
This is a chart of the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in year over year terms. This is the inflation metric that the Fed wants to see at 2% and they’ve been clear in saying they can cut rates if they’re confident that we’ll get there. It shows clear, substantial progress toward that goal:
The following chart shows the same thing, but now in more granular month-over-month terms. This allows us to better assess progress toward the 2% annual goal. It shows the past range that’s been consistent with that annual goal, but more importantly, it shows inflation moving up and out of that range last month. This week’s report maintained the same “too high” level.
The news wasn’t quite as bad from the week’s other key inflation report, but it certainly didn’t help. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, has also now seen the highest two consecutive months since inflation first began to calm down in 2022.
While PPI doesn’t usually move markets as much as CPI, and while the results were arguably not as troubling, it actually caused a bigger jump in rates because it added insult to CPI’s injury. It also happened to be flanked by upbeat labor market data. The following chart shows ongoing jobless claims, which had recently crested 1.9 million for only the second time since hitting long term lows.
On the road to lower rates, this week’s economic reports are tantamount to the driver actually making good on the threat to “turn this car around!” Here’s how rates reacted, as seen in terms of 10yr Treasury yields (highly correlated with mortgage rates in terms of day to day movement).
And here’s the context going back to the initial rate rally in November and December:
The trajectory for mortgage rates is substantially similar as seen in the chart below, at least if you’re looking at the blue line. The orange line shows Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey which was badly tricked by the timing of rate movement over the past two weeks in conjunction with its laggy methodology. Specifically, it’s a 5 day average ending on Wednesday. As such, if the previous week sees decent improvement on Thursday and Friday, and the new week doesn’t see most of its deterioration until Thursday and Friday, the most recent mark will move down instead of up. This is exactly what happened during this cycle.
Looking ahead, next week’s obvious focus is Wednesday’s Fed Announcement. To be sure, there is no chance of a rate cut at this meeting. Instead, markets will focus intently on the Fed’s updated rate projections. These only come out 4 times a year, so this will be the first update since December 13th and it will provide valuable insight as to how the past 2 months of higher inflation readings have affected the Fed’s rate outlook.
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Mortgage rates started the week relatively low, but they’re back up today.
Average 30-year mortgage rates are around 20 basis points up from where they were earlier this week, and are now in the upper 6% range, according to Zillow data.
Mortgage rates are expected to go down in 2024, but they’ve been elevated so far this year in response to still-high inflation.
Price growth has slowed significantly from when it peaked in 2022, but it’s still above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. In February, the Consumer Price Index actually inched up a bit from the previous month.
Because the path to lower inflation is proving to be a bit bumpy, we’ll likely need to wait a few more months until mortgage rates fall. And if inflation continues to stagnate, we might not see rates drop until much later in the year.
Mortgage Rates Today
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Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
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Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
This week’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.74%, according to Freddie Mac. This is a 14-basis-point decrease from the previous week.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.16% this week, according to Freddie Mac data. This is a six-point decrease since the week before.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate dramatically to try to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. So far, inflation has slowed significantly, but it’s still a bit above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
The Fed has indicated that it’s likely done hiking rates and that it could start cutting soon. This will likely allow mortgage rates to trend down later this year.
When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down?
Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they’ve moderated somewhat in recent months, and are expected to drop further this year.
In February 2024, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% year-over-year. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked last year, which is good news for mortgage rates. But it has to slow further before rates will begin to fall.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
“We have a very strong view that in the near future, you’re going to start seeing a lot of consolidation of these banks, and I think if you look at it on a macro scale, there’s a big necessity right now for this consolidation.” Should regulators embrace a shift towards commercial private solutions? A “stalemate” … [Read more…]
When it comes to their kids, many of your employees may be willing to put their retirement on the line.
As HR pros focus on workforce planning, understanding the burden that college costs impose on most employees is a key component for successful financial wellness programs.
Paying for college is a daunting challenge, and even financially savvy parents can become overwhelmed and confused by the college financing process. That’s where employer-sponsored education efforts can help. Employers who understand the following common college financing traps can better plan programs to alleviate the stress of paying for college and improve financial wellness overall.
Trap One: Prioritizing Their Children’s Education Over Their Own Retirement
By now, it’s become a financial wellness mantra: Parents should prioritize their retirement savings before saving for or paying for a child’s college education. After all, the thinking goes, students can borrow for education costs, but parents can’t borrow money to pay for retirement. And if parents don’t properly prepare for retirement, their children may end up supporting them in their later years, jeopardizing their future finances.
But with ever-rising tuition costs and the increasing burden of student debt, it may be harder for your employees to follow that tried-and-true advice. The cost of college has more than doubled over the past four decades — and student loan borrowing has risen along with it. Americans collectively owe more than 1.7 trillion in student loan debt, according to the Federal Reserve .
Trying to ease the burden on their children, your employees may be raiding their future. Among people aged 25 to 80 who are saving for both retirement and future college expenses, 58% say they are delaying retirement, and 41% say they have withdrawn money from their own retirement funds to pay for a child’s (or other relative’s) tuition, according to a July 2023 survey by the Society of Actuaries .
When an employee delays retirement to catch up on missed retirement savings or pay off education loans, it can be costly to an organization. What’s more, if paying for college forces an employee to work longer than they want to, the result may be a less productive, less engaged worker.
Recommended: SoFi Survey: The Future of Financial Well-Being at Work
Trap Two: Mismanaging PLUS loans
Parent Loans for Undergraduate Students (PLUS loans) are underwritten by the federal government and allow families to borrow without the same credit checks and other limits imposed on other types of lending. Because these loans are in a parent’s name, your employees may naturally gravitate to them as a way to help their children avoid debt.
But there are drawbacks. Unlike federal student loans, there are no limits on the amount parents can borrow as long as it doesn’t exceed education costs. To qualify for a PLUS loan, parents need only pass a check for an “adverse event” such as a recent bankruptcy filing or foreclosure. There is no consideration of the borrower’s ability to repay the loan. Given the often astronomical costs of attending a four-year college, your employees may quickly find they have taken on more debt than they can comfortably handle.
In addition, PLUS loan interest rates, set by the government each year, are usually significantly higher than student-held federal loans (8.05% for 2023-2024 versus 5.50%) and sometimes higher than some private college loans.
If parents default or consolidate their PLUS loans, or if they receive a forbearance or a deferment, the interest that continues to accrue is capitalized. That means that principal and payments can become even more unaffordable for employees. In addition, if the loans go into default, the government can garnish wages, Social Security checks, and tax refunds.
Recommended: Preparing for College Resource Guide for Parents
Trap Three: Avoiding College Financing at All Costs
Another common mistake lurks on the opposite side of the spectrum. In an effort to avoid college debt of any kind, parents who have some, but not enough, college savings may decide to forego saving for retirement, dip into retirement savings, or use home equity to pay tuition bills as they come.
Withdrawing 401(k) savings can result in significant penalties, taxes, and, importantly, lost principal and earnings. Cash-out home refinancing can lead to higher and perhaps unaffordable mortgage payments. Even putting retirement savings on hold when the year’s tuition is due can translate into large gaps in savings goals, depending on the number and ages of children attending college.
These are all understandable mistakes. As we saw above, an overreliance on debt to pay college bills can seriously jeopardize financial well-being. But so, too, can dismissing the strategic use of financial aid and loans to finance college costs.
For instance, your employees may neglect filling out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), figuring that they earn too much to qualify for federal financial aid. According to Sallie Mae’s How America Pays for College 2023 report, 71% of families filed the FAFSA for the 2022-2023 academic year, down from 86% in 2016-2017.
These parents may not realize that without the FAFSA, the student will not be awarded federal subsidized and unsubsidized loans, which can be attractive for their low rates and, in the case of subsidized loan, help from the government in paying interest.
More importantly, many schools require students to submit a FAFSA to be eligible for merit-based scholarships and grants, even though these funds are awarded according to the student’s academic record and other achievements, not financial need. Merit-based aid does not have to be repaid and is usually awarded to undergraduates for the full four years.
While too much debt is never smart, a prudent and affordable mix of well-structured student debt can help parents avoid sacrificing retirement savings, home equity, and other long-term savings to pay for college now.
Employer-sponsored college financing education and one-on-one college counseling can help ensure parents understand the complexities of financial aid and student borrowing so they can balance long-term and current financial needs and goals.
The Takeaway
Employers who help parents avoid these common college financing traps may help alleviate what is fast becoming one of the largest sources of financial stress in your workforce.
SoFi at Work can help with student loan repayment platforms, extensive education efforts, plus a lending suite of student, graduate student, MBA, and parent loans. For organizations that are looking to help their employees get ahead on their education financing goals, SoFi at Work also offers a 529 College Savings Program, which can be integrated into any payroll system.
Photo credit: iStock/Orbon Alija
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