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Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage application activity drifted lower again last week, the third straight week of mostly fractional declines. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and 0.1 percent before adjustment.
The Refinance Index declined by 2.0 percent from the previous week and was 5.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity slipped to 30.3 percent from 30.8 percent the previous week.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index ticked down by 0.1 percent week over week but did move 1.0 percent higher on an unadjusted basis. Purchase activity was 13.0 percent lower than during the same week in 2023.
“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, but that did little to ignite overall mortgage application activity. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined slightly to 6.91 percent, while the 15-year fixed-rate decreased to its lowest level in two months at 6.35 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh down on home buying. Purchase applications were unchanged overall, although FHA purchases did pick up slightly over the week. Refinance applications decreased to fall 5 percent below last year’s pace.”
Other Highlights from MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Application Survey
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Rising mortgage rates this week cast further doubt on meaningful rate cuts happening soon for homebuyers.
The average rate for a 30-year loan inched past 7% this week, settling at 7.07% on Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
A separate measurement tracking weekly average rates rose to 6.82% from 6.79%, Freddie Mac reported.
Homebuyers continued to pull back as affordability challenges worsened and consumer optimism diminished over how soon and how much interest rates could ease this year. Waiting for loan rates to decline is now the top reason buyers say they are not actively searching for a home.
“Elevated mortgage rates have been a persistent market challenge, holding back first-time homebuyers and repeat homebuyers alike, albeit for different reasons,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “In order for rates to decline meaningfully and sustainably, inflation needs to be convincingly on a path to the Fed’s 2% target.”
Read more: Mortgage rates remain around 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Homebuyer affordability continued to decline, with the US median mortgage payment increasing 2% monthly in February and 6% annually to nearly $2,200, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Rising mortgage payments across the US — driven by either higher interest rates or higher home prices, or both — have considerably cooled buyers’ demand.
The volume of home-purchase applications stayed unchanged this week and dropped 13% compared to the same week one year ago, MBA data showed.
“Challenging affordability conditions and low housing supply are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines this spring,” Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president, said. “The eventual, expected decline in rates in the coming months will hopefully spur new activity in the housing market.”
Expectations of a rate decline have been waning, though. Investors are now betting the Fed will cut rates by less than a percentage point instead of the 1.5% forecast at the beginning of 2024.
Despite the market shift, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently assured the public that inflation is easing and the central bank is still expected to cut rates at “some point” this year.
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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Source: finance.yahoo.com
Mortgage demand receded for the third consecutive week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. Mortgage applications decreased by 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ending March 29, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey.
“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, but that did little to ignite overall mortgage application activity,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement. “Elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh down on home buying. Purchase applications were unchanged overall, although FHA purchases did pick up slightly over the week. Refinance applications decreased to fall 5% below last year’s pace.”
As of March 26, the 30-year fixed rate on HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center stood at 7.16%, up from 7.07% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.53%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.51% on March 26, up from 6.5% one week earlier.
Both purchase and refinance activity decreased during the week. Purchase loan application volume dropped by 1% from one week earlier. Meanwhile, refinance volume fell by 2% from the prior week.
The MBA survey shows that the average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed loans with conforming balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.91%, down from 6.93% last week. Meanwhile, rates on jumbo loans (balances greater than $766,550) decreased week over week to 7.06%, down from 7.14%.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) share of total applications decreased to 11.7% last week, down from 12% the week before. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) share climbed to 12.1%, up from 12% the week before. And the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) share remained unchanged at 0.5%.
The MBA survey, conducted weekly since 1990, covers more than 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Source: housingwire.com
By Aarthi Swaminathan
The U.S. 15-year mortgage rate is at the lowest level in two months, industry group says
The numbers: The U.S. housing market is feeling a chill once again as home buyers pull back on applying for mortgages with rates staying near 7%.
Yet some buyers are finding rates in the low 6% range by turning to 15-year fixed-rate mortgages instead of the traditional 30-year loan.
Nevertheless, weakening demand overall pushed the market composite index – a measure of mortgage application volume – down in the last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday.
The market index fell 0.6% to 195.6 for the week ending March 29 from a week ago. A year ago, the index stood at 217.9.
Key details: The purchase index – which measures mortgage applications for the purchase of a home – fell 0.1% from a week ago.
The refinance index fell 1.6%.
The average contract rate for the 30-year mortgage for homes sold for $766,550 or less was 6.91% for the week ending March 29. That’s down from 6.93% from the week before.
The rate for jumbo loans, or the 30-year mortgage for homes sold for over $766,550, was 7.06%, down from 7.14% a week ago.
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration was 6.74%, down from 6.75% a week ago.
The 15-year fell to 6.35% from 6.46% from the previous week. The 15-year fixed was at the lowest level in two months, the MBA said.
The rate for adjustable-rate mortgages was up to 6.37%, from 6.27% last week.
The big picture: Home buyers are putting off buying a home due to elevated mortgage rates straining how much they can afford.
Even though for-sale inventory has shown signs of rising in recent weeks, demand isn’t picking up, which means that sales activity will not pick up as quickly.
To be sure, the data does not fully capture buyer demand as some are buying homes without mortgages. A third of home buyers paid for their home purchases with cash in February, as real-estate brokerage Redfin notes.
What the MBA said: “Elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh down on home buying,” Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA, said in a statement. “Purchase applications were unchanged overall, although [Federal Housing Administration] purchases did pick up slightly over the week.”
-Aarthi Swaminathan
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Source: morningstar.com
Mortgage loans refinancing declined for the week ending March 22, contributing to a drop in home loans applications even as interest rates decelerated, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.
The Refinance Index fell 2 percent from the prior week and was 9 percent lower compared to a year ago. Overall, mortgage applications dropped by 0.7 percent at a time when the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked down to 6.93 percent from the prior week’s 6.97 percent.
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
Read more: What is Mortgage Refinancing and How Does It Work?
The drop in refinancing applications comes as the housing market has been in flux nationwide.
Borrowing costs for home loans jumped to their highest since the turn of the century last year, peaking at about 8 percent in the fall. That jump in mortgage rates was sparked by the Federal Reserve hiking rates to their highest in more than two decades as policymakers moved to tighten financial conditions to battle soaring inflation. Expectations that the central bank will start lowering those rates has helped bring mortgage rates down.
Recent data suggests that buyers are still looking for lower borrowing costs. New home sales declined in February, amid high mortgage rates that economists say depressed activity as the housing market enters its busy Spring season.
Kan said on Wednesday that still elevated mortgage rates are still keeping buyers on the sidelines.
“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market,” he noted.
Kan suggest limited housing inventory is also proving to be a hindrance to the market.
“Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6-percent by the end of the year,” he said. “Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Read more: Best Mortgage Lenders
The lock-in effect was particularly acute in the existing homes market. Most homeowners have low mortgage rates which has discouraged them from putting their properties in the market if that means they may have to acquire a new home with borrowing costs closer to 7 percent. About 90 percent of homeowners own mortgages that are under 6 percent, according to real estate platform Redfin.
There have been some signs recently that the existing homes market is recovering after struggling mightily last year.
In February, sales of previously owned homes rose by nearly 10 percent.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
The average monthly mortgage payment for a home purchase rose in recent weeks, even as the tight housing market shows signs of loosening.
Payments increased 10% year-over-year to an all-time high of $2,721 for the four weeks ended March 24, Redfin said on Thursday morning.
The Mortgage Bankers Association also released its February Purchase Applications Payment Index the same day, and found the median disbursement increased by $50 from January, to $2,184. That figure is a $123 increase from February 2023.
The PAPI value increased 2.4% to 170.7 in February from 166.8 in January. For the same month last year, the index was 169.7, a 1.1% increase, with the year-over-year change attributed to a 4.8% rise in median income besides the 6% rise in payments.
Rates sticking around the 7% range is a contributing factor, the MBA said.
“Challenging affordability conditions and low housing supply are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines this spring,” said Edward Seiler, associate vice president, housing economics, and executive director of the Research Institute for Housing America, in a press release. “The eventual, expected decline in rates in the coming months will hopefully spur new activity in the housing market.”
However, Redfin pointed out that during the period, new listings were up 15% from the four weeks ended March 24, 2023, the most in nearly three years. The total number of homes is 6% higher, the biggest increase in approximately one year.
“High mortgage rates aren’t deterring buyers as much as they were last year; a lot of people want to get in now before prices go up more,” said Redfin agent Rachel Riva based in Miami, in a press release. “All of my recent listings have gone under contract in under 10 days, and most of them have received multiple offers.”
Buyers are dealing with elevated mortgage rates in a number of ways, Riva pointed out. “Some are making high down payments to lower their monthly payments, and some are willing to take on a high rate now in hopes of refinancing when and if rates come down.”
Median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the first quarter compared with historical averages in more than 95% of U.S. counties that Attom Data Solutions had enough data to analyze.
Meanwhile, major expenses on those homes were 32.3% of the average national wage in the first quarter, several points above common lending guidelines.
As bad as that data sounds, it is actually a quarter-to-quarter improvement for both, although worse than one-year prior, Attom said.
The portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments including property taxes and insurance remains up almost 3 percentage points from one year ago and 11 points higher from early in 2021.
“The picture for home buyers is brightening a little again as affordability measures have improved for the second quarter in a row,” said Rob Barber, Attom’s CEO, in a press release.
Even though the prospect of owning a home remains a financial stretch or even a pipe dream, for many households, with mortgage rates coming down from high points near 8% and home prices growing only by modest amounts, “it’s gotten a bit easier for average wage earners to afford a home so far this year,” Barber said. “The upcoming Spring buying season will say a lot about whether home prices remain stable enough for this trend to continue.”
In only 13 counties nationwide were home prices more affordable than the historical average, but even that needed to be taken with a grain of salt because two of those locales were New York County, also known as Manhattan, and San Francisco County, whose entirety is the city limits. Those are traditionally among the highest priced markets in the U.S.
Source: nationalmortgagenews.com
Purchase applications remained virtually flat (-0.2%), reflecting continued hesitancy among homebuyers who await further rate decreases and more available listings. Refinance activity also declined 2% from the previous week. Read more: Housing market slowdown hits sellers “Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that … [Read more…]
Now that we are right in the middle of the spring buying season, my inventory model is simple: with higher mortgage rates, just like last year, we should be able to grow weekly active inventory between 11,000 – 17,000 on some weeks. Unfortunately, I batted a whopping zero last year since inventory growth never hit that level for even one week — even when mortgage rates hit 8%. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, which is my peak rate forecast.
While I am thrilled that new listings data is growing year over year, something I have been anticipating for some time, the growth in 2024 has been disappointing because I had expected a bit more by now. This was my big talking point on CNBC earlier in the year. Still, new listing data is a positive story. Here are the number of new listings for last week over the last several years:
For context, new listings data at this time in 2010 ran at 326,266.
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates increase and demand gets hit.
As inventory and demand grow year over year, the price-cut percentage data increases year over year. So, we will keep tracking this data line to see how high it goes this year. We keep it simple: higher inventory softness in demand means price growth is weakening. As we can see below, the year-over-year data is showing a higher percentage of price cuts.
For those of you who have followed me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work and therefore for the mortgage rate discussion. A break above this level would send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8%. So far, so good here.
We had the PCE inflation report come out Friday and because some people were expecting a hotter number than estimates, it was perceived to be bullish for rate cuts. However, the markets were closed Friday, so we have to wait and see how trading goes on Monday. The 10-year yield channel is between 4.25%-3.80%, which looks correct as long as the economic data stays firm and jobless claims don’t break higher. This means mortgage rates will likely remain in the upper range of my 2024 forecast of 6.75%-7.25%.
There was not too much action in mortgage rates last week, but with jobs week coming up, we could see some movement. As you can see below, the 10-year yield has made a massive move from 2022 and has stayed above 4%, even with the progress we have made with inflation. Always remember, when it comes to discussions about rates and the Fed pivoting, it’s always labor over inflation data.
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 15% year over year.
Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and one flat print. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints and one flat print.
What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? Purchase apps made a solid positive run up until mortgage rates started to get back over 7%. This was similar to 2023 data, when purchase apps had 12 weeks of a positive run-up until rates moved toward 7% and then 8%.
First, the trading on Monday will be exciting because of the PCE inflation report; some argue it was hot and some say it wasn’t. The market decides this, and bond trading will judge it on Monday morning.
Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell talked on Friday. I believe Powell’s crucial comment was that the Fed won’t overreact to significant disinflation or heated inflation reports. I think some people missed this. If you want to understand why the markets still have three rate cuts priced in, it’s this mindset.
Then it’s jobs week, with four labor reports, and, of course, for me, it’s labor over inflation data, so buckle up!
Want more context? On the PowerHouse podcast with HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins, I discussed why the data lines we look at in the Housing Market Tracker are so critical for those in the housing industry.
Source: housingwire.com
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index moved lower last week, apparently indifferent to a slight improvement in mortgage interest rates. The Index, which measures loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index declined 0.4 percent compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index decreased 2.0 percent from the previous week and was 9.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 30.8 percent of total applications compared to 31.2 percent the previous week.
The Purchase Index ticked down 0.2 percent both before and after its seasonal adjustment. It was 16.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market. Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6 percent by the end of the year. Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Additional Highlights from the MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com