Uncommon Knowledge
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Mohtashami kicked off the sessions by talking about the differences between the current mortgage rate environment and some of what was seen in the early days of the financial crisis of the 2000s, saying that Americans generally are in a much better position than they were back then.
The Fed has recently indicated that it is not likely to reduce interest rates anytime soon due to economic indicators, and Mohtashami revived a 2022 prediction about what it will take to get the Fed to “break” on rates.
“In 2022, I brought up the premise that the Fed will not pivot until the labor market breaks,” he said. “So, if all of you are looking for a sustained lower move in mortgage rates, that’s what you’re going to see.”
While a lot of the oxygen in the discussion is taken up by inflation, Mohtashami asserts that’s not what the Fed is primarily focused on.
“What the Fed wants to see is the labor market get very soft and to the point that it’s breaking, and then they will find all the confidence in the world to do rate cuts and talk about making sure we have a soft landing,” he said.
Reading the data, he said, might tell a different story about the situation as opposed to strictly paying attention to what Fed officials are saying.
Illuminating data points include wage growth, job openings, the number of people quitting to find higher-paying work, and jobless claims on a weekly or monthly basis. These help observers to monitor changes in the labor market similarly to the Fed, he explained.
From there — and when combined with employment in construction and housing permit data — the thinking around rates will become clearer.
“If the labor market gets softer and the Fed starts getting a little bit more dovish, then not only can the spreads get better, but if the 10-year yield goes down, there’s your 6% [or] sub-6% mortgage rates,” he said. “But this means the labor market has to break. So, we’re all focusing on inflation, but not what really matters.”
A lot of the conversation in the housing market can be focused on “vibes,” or general feelings about the way things are going. Simonsen explained to attendees at The Gathering that focusing instead on real-time data is key to having accurate, predictive indicators about where the market is at and where it will go.
Simonsen began his presentation by talking about an early Altos interaction with both Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. In 2007, right around the time he started Altos Research, he was attending a conference where representatives of both companies were speaking. After they finished speaking, he aimed to pitch both companies on why they might need the kind of data Altos specializes in.
He recalled his pitch.
“I’m Mike Simonsen, my company is Altos Research, and we track every home for sale in the country every week,” he recalled saying. “We check all the pricing, all the supply and demand, and all the changes in that data, and we give that to you because traditional housing data is months behind the curve before you see what’s happening.”
The Lehman representative turned him down flatly, saying, “We’ve got so much more data than you can possibly imagine. We’re making so much money. Don’t even bother,” Simonsen recalled.
The Goldman representative was more open to hearing what he had to say, and 12 weeks later engaged with Altos as a client. A year later, Lehman Brothers went out of business, Simonsen explained.
Simonsen asserted that monitoring changing data points on a daily and weekly basis — including inventory levels, new and pending home sales, and home price data and signals —can help to more efficiently track the impact of mortgage rates.
“I believe that our obligation is to communicate with the data for everybody in the cycle, from the biggest players down to every single homebuyer and seller,” Simonsen said.
He began by looking at fresh inventory data.
“The biggest takeaway from when we’re looking at the inventory numbers is rising rates constitute rising inventory — or put another way, demand slows, inventory grows,” he said. “And that’s actually counterintuitive for a lot of folks who are just casually looking at the data.
“They think, ‘Mortgage rates are higher, nobody’s going to sell, therefore inventory is going to fall when rates fall again. Then we’ll finally get some inventory.’ But the data shows that actually, the opposite is true.”
Multiple years of higher rates will be needed to return inventory to pre-pandemic levels, but inventory growth is rising across the country, particularly in states like Florida and Texas, he explained.
More home sellers are also starting to enter the market. Last year, rising rates depressed seller participation, but higher rates are starting to be seen as more of a norm. A general sense of predictability will allow more sellers to enter the market, he said.
Prices are likely to remain stable due to higher rates, he added.
“More data, less vibes,” Simonsen said.
Daryl Fairweather of Redfin primarily spoke about housing demand; generational participation in the market; the impact of climate events and natural disasters on homebuying activity; and the flexibility that renters might experience, particularly as weather events become more prominent nationwide.
“People are spending more and more of their money on housing, and housing isn’t getting any more affordable,” she said. “We still have this underlying shortage of homes.”
But the presentation was primarily designed to be forward looking, and in that respect, interest rates and inflation are elevated, but the economy is growing. Demographics are also changing, with millennials being the largest generation and Gen Z being smaller but increasingly influential in the economy.
Changing preferences and economic realities are also disrupting long-standing paradigms related to housing in the U.S., she said.
“It used to be that homeownership was the American dream, and now it’s more the American pipe dream,” Fairweather said. “People just feel like it’s a ‘pie in the sky’ thing for them to achieve because housing affordability keeps getting worse and worse.”
Climate is also a very real issue having an impact on the housing market, Fairweather said.
“For a long time I would talk about a changing climate and people would say ‘That’s a problem for the future,’” she said. “But now, we’re seeing insurance costs going up and people are deciding where to live based on the climate. It’s becoming a more and more important issue in the housing market.”
Fairweather shared that Redfin experimented in 2020 to analyze the impacts that climate change can have on homebuying behavior over a three-month period in which users were divided into two pools: one that showed them a view of flood risk and one that did not.
“In the control view, there is no flood risk, and then in the treatment view, you could see flood risk for every single home that’s on Redfin,” she said. “The people that were shown flood risk — if they were previously looking at severely or extremely risky homes for flood risk — they went on to buy homes that had half as much risk when they saw that information,” she said.
This communicates a potential value-add opportunity for mortgage professionals to offer more robust climate information, in addition to where interest rates are projected to go or demographic information.
“[That can help] inform them about how to make the best homebuying decision,” Fairweather said.
Source: housingwire.com
“There’s such scarcity that the first thing that matters is finding a home you like,” said Jay Tuli, president of Leader Bank, which sells 90 percent of its home loans in Massachusetts.
Home sales are down year-over-year due to the lack of inventory, said Theresa Hatton, chief executive of Massachusetts Association of Realtors.
Many prospective buyers who were waiting for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates by now have reason to give up hope. Inflation isn’t coming down quickly enough and, at 3.5 percent, is still well above the Fed’s 2 percent target. So the central bank won’t trim short-term rates fast enough this year, contrary to what most economists had been expecting. Consequently, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.1 percent, over 1 percentage point higher than this time last year and 0.6 percent more than January 2024, Freddie Mac reported last week.
“Until inflation cools a bit, we can expect mortgage rates to remain elevated,” said Michael Debronzo, a regional sales executive at PNC Bank, which has noted a slight uptick in loan applications.
The market is closely watching the Fed’s every move and the economy is a confounding puzzle even for experts. That will result in a volatile ride for the remainder of the year.
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With that in mind, here are three things for home buyers to consider, according to Berkshire Bank’s Ellen Steinfeld, head of consumer lending and payments:
Expect home listings to remain tight. That’s because those who financed their homes during the low-rate era are staying in their homes for longer. Even those who were looking to downsize are staying put. Financially, it doesn’t make sense to sell if you also have to buy at these rates. Usually, people try and sell their home before bidding on a new one, but right now it’s the other way around, said Steinfeld, who’s based in Long Island, N.Y.
This also means home prices are unlikely to drop. In certain cases people are paying more than the asking price, engaging in bidding wars. “I anticipate during the remainder of this year we’ll continue to see price appreciation,” Steinfeld noted.
Finally, even though interest rates will likely drop a smidge by late 2024, they won’t reverse anywhere as quickly as their speedy rise postpandemic. Meanwhile, buyers can do cheaper 3- or 5-year adjustable rate mortgages and refinance when rates drop.
“The cost of refinancing is reasonable enough,” Steinfeld said.
Suchita Nayar can be reached at [email protected].
Source: bostonglobe.com
The recent rise of the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate, which poses a new obstacle to aspiring homeowners hoping to purchase a property during this homebuying season, could have dramatic consequences on the country’s housing market.
The national weekly average for 30-year mortgages, the most popular in the nation, was 6.88 percent as of April 11, according to data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., better known as Freddie Mac. That was 0.06 of a percentage point higher than a week before and up 0.61 compared to a year before. The national average for 15-year mortgages was 6.16 percent, up 0.1 of a percentage point compared to the previous week and 0.62 compared to a year before.
Read more: How to Get a Mortgage
On Monday, experts monitoring mortgage rates on a daily basis noted that the national average for 30-year fixed mortgages reached 7.44 percent—the highest they’ve been so far this year and close to the 23-year weekly record of 7.79 percent reached on October 25, 2023. On Monday, the 15-year mortgage rate was 6.85 percent. At its peak on October 25, 2023, it had reached 7.03 percent.
“Big one-day jump,” commented journalist Lance Lambert on X, formerly known as Twitter. “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticks up to 7.44 percent. New high for 2024.”
The rise in mortgage rates comes as homebuying season, a time when the number of homes listed for sale increases, is heating up. This climb in inventory starts in spring and normally peaks in summer before declining as the weather gets colder, marking one of the busiest times of the year for home sales. But higher mortgage rates could have an early chilling effect on the market.
Read more: Compare Top Mortgage Lenders
The median monthly U.S. housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,747 during the four weeks ending April 7, up 11 percent from a year earlier, according to a report from real estate brokerage Redfin last week. It noted that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, then at 6.82 percent, was more than double pandemic-era lows.
There’s not much hope that mortgage rates will come down soon, as the U.S. Labor Department said last week that inflation has risen faster than expected last month, at 3.5 percent over the 12 months to March. That was up from 3.2 percent in February.
“For homebuyers, the latest CPI [consumer price index] report means mortgage rates will stay higher for longer because it makes the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Housing costs are likely to continue going up for the near future, but persistently high mortgage rates and rising supply could cool home-price growth by the end of the year, taking some pressure off costs.”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, voiced concern last week over “persistent inflationary pressures” and said the bank was prepared for “a very broad range of interest rates, from 2 percent to 8 percent or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes.”
While the jump in mortgage rates appears modest, it makes a huge difference for borrowers, who might end up paying hundreds of dollars a month more on top of what’s already one of the most significant expenses in their lives.
Many might decide that they can’t afford to buy a home—which is what happened when mortgage rates suddenly skyrocketed between late 2022 and early 2023 as a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate-hiking campaign.
Between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, a drop in demand caused by the unaffordability of buying a home led to a modest price correction of the housing market. But prices have since climbed back due to the combination of pent-up demand and historic low inventory.
While the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, these are hugely influenced by the central bank’s decision to hike or cut interest rates. The Fed left rates unchanged in March and is considered unlikely to cut them this month considering the latest data on inflation.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
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Mon, Apr 22 2024, 11:28 AM
When I was a kid, whenever I would walk by a pay phone or newspaper vending machine, I’d check the coin change slot. Or periodically check under my Dad’s La-Z-Boy… every penny or dollar counted! (Nowadays, I still get excited when I find a forgotten quarter in my own pants or backpack.) Plenty of folks at last week’s Great River Conference were trying to do the modern equivalent of that by learning about the current vendor offerings of technology, or meeting with their current vendors to see if pennies or dollars could be saved on every loan given the current $12k+ cost per funded loan. Smart and compliant speed and efficiency are critical… speaking of which, found here, today’s podcast features an interview with Guaranteed Rate’s Victor Ciardelli on the company’s goal of closing a loan in one-day and how they will get there. This week’s podcasts are sponsored by Calque. With The Trade-In Mortgage powered by Calque, homeowners can buy before they sell, make non-contingent offers, and tap their home equity to fund the down payment on their next home.
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
When people say they can see miles and miles on a clear day, they aren’t wrong: the horizon is about 3 miles away, with some variation depending on your height. And whatever may lie beyond, Dark Matter Technologies is helping lenders prepare with its first annual Horizon user conference. The event kicks off Wednesday at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach and will bring together hundreds of industry notables to network, get the inside scoop on Dark Matter’s innovation roadmap, and explore business trends including market growth strategies, AI, and cybersecurity. Feeling a little FOMO? Request a consultation today and your team could be working smarter with the Empower LOS, and catching some Florida sun, by this time next year.
Does it feel like your current point-of-sale vendor has lost focus on mortgage? As a mortgage-specialized partner, Maxwell is committed to giving lenders a competitive advantage in a changing mortgage market. With Maxwell Point of Sale, lenders can tailor workflows to fit the unique needs of their organization, so back-end teams can work quickly without costly interruptions. Compared to a top competitor, Maxwell Point of Sale averages a 5.9 percent higher pull-through rate from rate-lock to close. For the average lender using Maxwell POS, this equates to $42MM in additional loan volume. Schedule a call with the team to learn how Maxwell Point of Sale can start working for you, your borrowers, and your lending team quickly.
Take your accounting department from “Cost Center” to Revenue Generator” with Loan Vision & LV-PAM. Loan Vision customers report a 10 percent reduction in loan fallout, 30 percent+ decrease in days to close the books, and 20 percent+ reduction in accounting headcount. Interested in learning how Loan Vision can reduce internal costs and help you gain a competitive edge? Contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.
LoanStream wants you to Spring into more business with its April Specials on Prime, Non-QM and Closed End Seconds now through April 30th, 2024. Includes 25 BPS Price Improvement on FHA/VA loans 620+ FICO (excludes DPA and CalHFA) on Prime, 25 BPS price improvement on all Non-QM loans (excludes Select) and 25 BPS Price Improvement on all Closed-End Seconds. Restrictions apply so contact your LoanStream Account Executive to learn more. Specials are valid for loans locked 4/1/2024 through 4/30/2024. Offers subject to change at any time, terms and conditions apply.
Symmetry Lending introduces its April Special for Piggyback Pricing! Enjoy a remarkable discount on Piggyback HELOC transactions until April’s end, including a -1.00 percent Spring Discount for qualified customers with a FICO score of 740+ and a draw of $200k+, equating to Prime + .25 percent margin. This offer demonstrates appreciation for clients’ support and trust. Ready to seize this opportunity? Connect with your Symmetry Lending Area Manager to formulate a plan for getting these solutions in front of your clients today!
eClosing Survey by STRATMOR
Today, Snapdocs released new industry research that found lenders using the company’s eClosing platform experience 18-day faster loan velocity than their industry peers. The survey was conducted by STRATMOR Group with data self-reported by mortgage lenders. I got a note from Michael Sachdev, CEO of Snapdocs that said eClosing technology, when paired with the right partner to scale adoption, is helping lenders set new industry benchmarks for loan processing speed, operating costs, and borrower satisfaction. So often we see vendors make claims about their product value, but this report is a good example of that validation being sourced directly from the lender users themselves.
Agency and Investor News
Last week, the Department of Housing and Urban Development issued a HUD final rule that it says will increase lender participation in the Section 184 Indian Housing Loan Guarantee program, strengthen regulations to meet growing demand, and ensure the program will remain a vital resource for Native American families for years to come. Miki Adams, president of CBC Mortgage Agency, a correspondent investor that is wholly owned by the Cedar Band of Paiutes in Utah, stated, “The Section 184 program is a vital tool for so many Native American homebuyers. The new regulations will bring more clarity and predictability to this important program, and we applaud the Administration for the improvements and their efforts to work closely with Tribal leaders and other stakeholders. There is still more that must be done to modernize the program and we look forward to working collaboratively with HUD on future improvements.”
Loss mitigation: what would you do? A borrower is out of work, is three months delinquent on their mortgage payments, has been offered a new job in another state, and will relocate within 60 days. They’re also unable to catch up on their arrears and have equity in the home. What should the servicer do? Review this and other scenarios from Fannie Mae’s March Loss Mitigation webinar and download the presentation.
Fannie Mae has launched “Mission Index,” a new initiative to sell agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that cater to socially conscious investors, aiming to attract more buyers to the market, Bloomberg reported. Fannie Mae assigns scores to MBS pools based on affordable rental housing availability, borrower location (high-poverty or rural areas), and other indicators, giving investors more visibility into the underlying mortgages and stimulate lending to underserved borrowers, potentially leading to lower interest rates for these borrowers.
Saving for a down payment is a barrier first-time homebuyers face. While there are numerous down payment assistance programs (DPA) available, it can be difficult for housing professionals to find programs that meet the specific needs of their borrower. Given the number of DPA programs in the market, there hasn’t been a consistent way to match the right DPA program to the needs of a particular borrower. To address this issue, Freddie Mac launched DPA One®, a free online solution to help DPA program providers reduce submission errors and program requirement questions from lenders by developing a single, standardized, online access point to manage their DPA program information. To learn more, read Freddie Mac’s case study about how one of Freddie Mac’s housing finance agency partners, Southeast Texas Housing Finance Corporation (SETH), is promoting affordable housing in the Southeast Texas community.
As part of a recent Fannie Mae Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey® (MLSS) special topic analysis, Fannie’s economists surveyed senior executives of mortgage lending institutions to better understand how they feel about Technology Service Provider (TSP) solutions, particularly as TSPs have become an increasingly essential part of lenders’ day to day operations. The results are in a new Perspectives blog.
Ginnie Mae announced revisions to its monthly single-family reporting requirements to include expanded Payment Default Status (PDS) reporting. The expanded PDS dataset will include loan default information, any mitigation actions taken, and the timing of those actions. For more information regarding the transition to the new reporting requirements, see All Participants Memorandum (APM) 24-06.
In Bulletin 2024-1, Freddie Mac announced changes to trust income requirements pertaining to history of receipt for trust income with pre-determined fixed payments, and documentation of continuance for all trust income types. Pennymac is aligning with these changes effective with loan deliveries on or after April 30, 2024. View Pennymac Announcement 24-36 for details.
Pennymac posted Announcement 24-37 informing it will update Conventional LLPAs effective for all Best Efforts Commitments taken on or after Monday, April 22, 2024.
Capital Markets
Investor attitudes drive investor demand, and therefore rates. So, what is driving investor attitudes? There is the escalated geopolitical uncertainty between Iran and Israel (central bankers are girding for potential oil shocks that could reignite consumer-price growth), there is rising volatility amidst fear of a potential rate increase due to sticky inflation (voting Fed members have not ruled out the possibility of a future rate hike and have urged patience for any potential easing at least until year-end), there is also cautious optimism surrounding the world economy (earnings season continues on Wall Street this week), and new economic releases are always on the docket, even if most are backward-looking (Q1 GDP, due out later this week, is expected to have risen to 2.9 percent as of the most recent estimate).
More germane to the mortgage industry, we learned last week that existing home sales were down 4.3 percent during the month of March. Meanwhile, housing starts fell 14.7 percent in March although some of the decline was attributed to weather conditions in parts of the country. In terms of the American consumer, retail sales in March rose 0.7 percent which was well above market expectations for a 0.3 percent increase. Additionally, retail sales from February were revised higher from the initial release. The 1.1 percent jump in control group sales led some economists to increase their forecast for personal consumption growth in the first quarter.
Bank economists are growing more optimistic about the outlook for credit conditions compared to the latter half of 2023, according to the American Bankers Association’s latest Credit Conditions Index. Conditions are expected to improve for a second consecutive quarter in Q2, which would mark the highest level in two years, reflecting a moderate increase in optimism. Job growth is expected to continue, inflation is forecasted to ease toward the Fed’s 2 percent target, and three rate cuts are expected by the end of the year.
This week’s highlights include month-end supply consisting of $183 billion in fixed coupons and $44 billion 2-year FRNs auctioned over tomorrow through Thursday, flash PMIs from S&P Global, new home sales, Fed surveys, durable goods, Q1 GDP, PCE, and Michigan Sentiment. No Fed speakers are scheduled with the Fed in blackout ahead of the May 1/2 FOMC meeting. The week gets off to a quiet start with one data point, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March, due out later this morning. We start Monday with 30-year Agency MBS prices worse roughly .125 from Friday evening and the 10-year yielding 4.65 after closing last week at 4.62 percent.
Employment
radius financial group inc. is looking for an experienced Accounting Manager to lead all accounting operations. radius is a full-service retail mortgage banker that has been making mortgages better through a customer obsessed and team inspired culture since 1999. We are seeking an experienced Accounting Manager to lead all loan accounting, financial reporting, accounts payable and payroll functions. The Accounting Manager will report to the CFO and must have experience in a mortgage accounting system (Loan Vision is a plus), branch reporting and MSR accounting. Remote candidates will be considered and should send confidential inquires to Mike Clark.
Imagine a world where you, as a loan officer, aren’t stuck choosing between a broker model and a retail model. What if there was a company that blended the best of both worlds: the transparency of a broker model with the solid support of a retail banking platform? What if this company not only generated qualified local leads for you but also helped you add value for your existing realtor partners and connect with new ones? What if I told you this company is not just a dream: It’s real and it’s here to revolutionize your workflow. Please schedule a confidential Zoom meeting with Next Wave Mortgage.
TAYGO INC. presents an enticing new opportunity for a SaaS Sales Representative! This pivotal role is instrumental in propelling the success of TAYGO through selling our SaaS solutions to prospective clients. The key focus is comprehending the requirements and challenges of mortgage lenders (as well as mortgage brokers) and adeptly showcasing how our products, WEB-GO and RIN-GO, can optimize their operations and business performance. You must have a strong understanding of CRM products, their features, and the mortgage industry. You must effectively engage with prospects to understand their needs. You must also carefully monitor existing clients’ activities to identify upsell opportunities. You must have exceptional communication skills for online demos and meetings, cold or warm calls and emails. Your expertise, patience, and ability to build and maintain strong customer relationships will be vital in achieving our sales goals and ensuring customer satisfaction. Please send your resume to [email protected].
Alanna McCargo, President of the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) and whom I have had the opportunity to spend some time with, will resign from public office, effective May 3. “McCargo has served in the Biden-Harris Administration since January 2021, first as the Senior Advisor for Housing Finance in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for former Secretary Marcia Fudge and then later nominated by President Biden to lead Ginnie Mae. McCargo’s confirmation, with bipartisan support by the U.S. Senate, made history as she became the first woman and woman of color at the helm of this U.S. Government corporation.”
The announcement came with the usual platitudes from Ms. McCargo about the Administration and Ginnie Mae and its “complex $2.5 trillion guarantee business” as well as others saying some very nice things about her.
Principal Executive Vice President (PEVP) Sam Valverde will serve as the Acting President upon President McCargo’s departure. Senior Advisor for Strategic Operations and Interim Chief Operating Officer Laura Kenney will assume additional responsibilities as part of this transition.
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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
Source: housingwire.com
As thousands of Chicago-area families go house-hunting this spring, the dream of homeownership continues to drift further and further away.
21-Apr-24 – Average long-term mortgage rates inched above 7 percent nationwide for the first time this year, reported Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey on April 18.
Benchmark 30-year fixed-rate home loan rates hit 7.10 percent, up from 6.88 percent a week earlier. That’s its highest level since October 26, 2023, when 30-year fixed loans hit 7.79 percent. A year ago, 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged a more affordable 6.39 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 7 percent for the first time this year,” said Sam Khater (left), Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As rates trend higher, potential home buyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year.” |
Interest charges on 15-year fixed loans on April 18 averaged 6.39 percent, up from 6.16 percent a week earlier. A year ago, 15-year fixed mortgages averaged 5.76 percent.
Khater noted that home purchase applications rose modestly the week before, but “it remains unclear how many home buyers can withstand increasing rates in the future.”
The Freddie Mac survey is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who place a down payment of 20 percent and have an excellent credit score of 740 or higher.
The truth is home buyers in Chicago and across the nation really are starting to get rate-shy. Sales of existing homes in the United States fell 4.3 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted 4.19 million, reported the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s the first monthly decline in sales since December 2023, and follows a nearly 10 percent monthly sales jump nationwide in February.
“Home sales essentially remain stuck because mortgage rates have been stable and inventory is not really rising,” said Laurence Yun (right), NAR’s Chief Economist. Unfortunately, Yun predicted that mortgage rates are likely to rise above 7 percent in the coming weeks. Early in 2024, Yun had predicted that 30-year fixed loan rates would average 6.3 percent by the fourth quarter of this year. |
The interest rate rise is a direct result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes intended to tame soaring inflation numbers not seen in 40 years.
The Fed has raised its key benchmark lending rate to a range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent, the highest level since 2007. Based on moves by the Fed, mortgage analysts say 30-year fixed home loans could reach – or surpass – the 8 percent level in the near future. Home loan rates have not hit the lofty 8 percent level since August 11, 2000, more than 23 years ago.
Searching for a better deal, some borrowers are beginning to flock to riskier adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM), lenders say.
“This week we have issued 30-year loan commitments with rates as high as 7.5 percent, depending on down payments and borrower credit scores,” said Jeremy Rose (left), Chicago-based loan consultant for Loan Depot, one of the largest lenders in the nation. “Mortgage interest rates may have gradually declined over the past two decades, but home prices have tripled.” |
Today, the buyer of a $400,000 home with a credit score of 740, who places a 25 percent down payment and takes out a $300,000 mortgage for 30 years at Loan Depot, would pay a rate of 7.5 percent. If the buyer is willing to pay a 1 percent discount point, or a loan fee of $3,000, the interest rate would drop to 7.125 percent.
“The most motivated buyers will accept the current level of mortgage rates and make offers when they find a place that’s suitable,” said Holden Lewis (right), a home and mortgage expert at Nerd Wallet. “High mortgage rates aren’t holding buyers back as much as lack of inventory and high prices.” |
“If you’re always waiting for the perfect market conditions to arise, you could end up missing out on a lot of great opportunities,” warned Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at Lending Tree.
Mortgage rate history
Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates ended 2020 at a rock-bottom 2.65 percent – the lowest level in the Freddie Mac survey history, which began in 1971.
Home loan rates set new record lows an amazing 16 times in 2020, and tens of thousands of homeowners refinanced.
Archives of the now-defunct Federal Housing Finance Board show long-term mortgage rates in the 1960s were not much higher than the Great Depression, when lenders were charging 5 percent on five-year balloon loans.
Nearly six decades ago, between 1963 and 1965, you could get a mortgage at 5.81 to 5.94 percent. Between 1971 and 1977, the now-defunct Illinois Usury Law held rates in the 7.6-to-9 percent range.
In the early 1980s, runaway inflation caused home loan rates to skyrocket into the stratosphere. According to Freddie Mac, benchmark 30-year mortgage rates peaked at a jaw-dropping 18.45 percent in October 1981 during that Great Recession. Rates finally fell below 10 percent in April 1986, and then bounced in the 9-to-10 percent range during the balance of the 1980s. Twenty-three years ago, in August 2000, when some of today’s Millennial borrowers were still in diapers, lenders were quoting 8.04 percent. |
Between 2002 and 2011, rates bounced in the 4-to-6 percent range. They inched into the 3-to-4 percent range until 2020, when they fell into the rock-bottom 2 percent bracket.
Good luck, loan hunters!
Source: loopnorth.com
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that’s come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This week’s data was more of an afterthought compared to last week’s.
The chart above pertains to Fed rate expectations, and that’s not exactly the same as longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields. The latter saw a bit more volatility this week.
Monday’s Retail Sales data was much stronger than expected and markets reacted immediately. Tuesday’s data was consequential, but it was followed by a speech in which Fed Chair Powell had an opportunity to provide some updated thoughts on the rate outlook. After all, the Fed hadn’t seen the most recent CPI data (and several other strong reports) at the time the last round of rate projections came out in March.
As the market expected, the tone is evolving. While Powell and the Fed repeat that the rate path depends on economic data, it’s no surprise to see recent comments acknowledging a surprising amount of strength in the recent data. Stronger data means fewer rate cuts. Powell went as far as saying there was new uncertainty as to whether the Fed will even be able to cut in 2024.
Two days later, NY Fed President John Williams struck similar tone. Just last week, he had pushed back on the CPI data, saying the Fed wasn’t surprised by setbacks in the inflation data. This week’s comments did more to acknowledge the other side of data dependency. Specifically, Williams said the Fed could hike again if the data called for it.
To be sure, these are not earth-shattering “ifs” and “thens.” But the market hones in on the subtle differences with which the data dependency is communicated. It didn’t help that Thursday morning’s Philly Fed Manufacturing Index moved up to the highest levels in 2 years or that the “prices paid” component of the same report moved up much more than economists expected.
Here’s how the entire week looked in terms of 10yr Treasury yields.
Friday’s reaction to the attacks in Iran is important because it shows us that some geopolitical news is indeed worth a reaction. That was less clear earlier in the week as multiple batches of somewhat similar headlines failed to cause as much movement. The difference on Friday was the uncertainty over the status of Iran’s nuclear sites as well as concern that it would be the catalyst for the outbreak of much more significant fighting. The market calmed down quite quickly once it was clear the nuclear sites were not damaged and that Iran was not retaliating. The correlation between stock prices and bond yields further confirms the “flight to safety” trading pattern commonly seen after such news.
In the bigger picture, the past 2 weeks have gone a long way toward making the end of 2023 look like yet another “false start” toward lower rates. Up until then, we had sort of a sideways fighting chance. While we have labeled late 2023 as the 3rd false start of this cycle, it wouldn’t meet the purest definition until rates rise back above last October’s highs. We’re definitely not there yet and we won’t know if we’ll get there until we see the next round of big ticket economic data in May.
In the meantime, home sales remain constrained.
Next week’s economic data is fairly muted apart from Friday’s PCE price index. This isn’t as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it could certainly cause some volatility if it happens to send a different message.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Fri, Apr 19 2024, 11:33 AM
It is “Take Your Child to Work Day” next Thursday which, if you work from home, is probably like a day off from school for the tyke. (I won’t be bringing my son Robbie to work, who, as I write this, is pedaling from Chicago to New York and bunked down last night in Union Home’s Bill Cosgrove’s humble abode.) I do not track his exact whereabouts, but we all know that, in having a smart phone, one gives up pretty much all of their privacy. For example, a new working paper posted to the National Bureau of Economic Research sought to examine the polling data that indicates 22 percent of Americans reported attending religious services on a weekly basis. They did this by looking at geodata from smartphones of 2 million people in 2019, and found that while 73 percent of people did indeed step into a place of worship on a primary day of worship at least once over the course of the year, just 5 percent of Americans studied in fact did so weekly, significantly smaller than the data people reported to pollsters. (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. OB’s smart solutions automate critical functions like pricing, hedging, trading, and social media. More originators and investors rely upon Optimal Blue’s integrated solutions, data, and connections to support their unique business strategies, no matter how complex. Hear an interview between Robbie and me on a variety of topics in mortgage that are germane to the Daily Commentary.)
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
Operations leaders! You don’t want to miss this event if you care about improving your operations! Join Femi Ayi, EVP Operations at Revolution Mortgage, Brooke Smith, Senior Manager, Loan Sourcing Digital Solutions at Fannie Mae, and Jodi Eberhardt, Strategic Integration Director at Freddie Mac, and Richard Grieser, VP, Marketing at Truv, as they highlight different strategies to provide customers with a more transparent, efficient borrowing experience. Freddie Mac’s Loan Product Advisor® asset and income modeler (AIM) and Fannie Mae’s Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) validation service play a critical role for lenders committed to streamlining origination processes and improving loan quality. However, the key to optimizing borrower verification workflows and ensuring compliance is partnering with the right provider that helps lenders improve loan quality and save hundreds of dollars per loan compared to traditional verification providers. Come join us! “Minimizing Risks with GSE Borrower Verifications”, April 24 2:00 PM ET Use code TRUV100 to participate FOR FREE, even if you are not an MBA member! Register now.
“AFR Wholesale® is thrilled to announce the renewal of our partnership with AIME for 2024, underscoring our commitment to the wholesale channel. As we continue our collaboration, we are committed to providing essential resources, comprehensive training, and robust support to independent mortgage professionals and the wholesale channel. This partnership will allow AFR to set new industry standards, promote best practices, and deliver exceptional services to our clients and partners. We also will look to spearhead innovative initiatives aimed at boosting operational efficiencies and enhancing customer experiences. Reflecting on a history of successful collaborations, we are excited about the potential for even greater achievements. This announcement is just the beginning, as AFR plans to unveil several exciting partnerships and updates in the coming weeks. Join us in driving change in mortgage lending. To get involved, contact us at [email protected], 1-800-375-6071, visit AFR.”
In the wake of frequent breaches within our industry, we are reminded of the precarious position mortgage lenders and their customers’ data are currently in. These repeated security incidents emphasize an undeniable truth: robust cybersecurity defenses are not merely an option; they are imperative. A breach can mean the difference between a thriving business and a devastating collapse. There is a very real risk to mortgage companies right now; you’re not just guarding data, you’re safeguarding trust, livelihoods, and the very integrity of the financial system. It’s a responsibility to take seriously, and it’s time to double down on cybersecurity. Richey May’s cybersecurity team is here to help: Check out the latest post detailing the often-overlooked risks in the industry.
Capital Markets
One can’t ignore the U.S. Federal Reserve’s role in interest rates. (The current STRATMOR blog is titled, “Relying on the Fed: How Did This Happen?”) The “experts” have been predicting multiple rate cuts in 2024. Sure enough, the much-awaited Fed pivot has materialized, but it’s not what investors had been expecting. The Fed change was supposed to signal a reverse of its contractionary monetary policy path, keeping rates high, which has been in place since March 2022.
But that is not the message, especially after three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected inflation readings. Fed Chair Jay Powell said, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. Last year, rebounding supply supported U.S. growth in spending and also employment, alongside a considerable decline in inflation. The more recent data show solid growth and continued strength in the labor market, but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2 percent inflation goal.”
As always, the Federal Reserve is watching the data as it comes out. But things will be higher for longer. At least the next rate move is still forecast to be a cut. Things could get rocky for lenders and borrowers if that shifts to a hike, which could happen if price pressures resurface and put a so-called soft landing into doubt. And now we have the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note up at its highest level since November, above 4.6 percent versus a yield of 4.25 percent in the last week or two and starting the year at 3.88 percent, meaning that the 10-year is now nearing a full point rise for 2024!
As today’s podcast interview alluded, it’s been pretty quiet out there in terms of market-moving news. Weekly jobless claims showed no change from last week’s level and there was a better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed survey for April yesterday, which prompted some selling. Investors bought plenty of Treasuries to close 2023 and open 2024, betting on several rate cuts this year from the Fed. However, Fed speakers hammering home patient rhetoric on interest rates (several more Fed speakers reiterated yesterday that they do not feel urgency to cut rates at this time) due to a reluctance of the U.S. economy to cool, has forced investors to abandon bets on a rally, giving way to a wave of selling.
Accordingly, mortgage rates surged in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac, with the 30-year rate above 7 percent for the first time this year. For the week ending April 18, the 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates jumped 22 basis points and 23 basis points versus the prior week to 7.10 percent and 6.39 percent, respectively. Those rates are 71 basis points and 63 basis points higher than this time last year.
Inflation is back below 3 percent, but hotter-than-expected readings for the rental category of housing in the first few months of the year are a big reason the Fed has held back on the rate cuts that Wall Street has been hoping for. Markets seeing the biggest rent declines are the ones where there’s been the most construction. The Northeast and Midwest have experienced lingering high inflation, while the West and South have seen it moderate rapidly.
Existing-home sales fell 4.3 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, a widely expected decline given the recent slip in purchase mortgage applications and solid gains registered in the first two months of 2024 from increased supply and a temporary dip in mortgage rates. Sales were down 3.7 percent from the previous year. The median existing-home sales price rose 4.8 percent from a year ago to $393,500, the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains and the highest price ever for the month of March. The inventory of unsold existing homes grew 4.7 percent from one month ago to the equivalent of 3.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
There is no data of note on today’s economic calendar, though there is one Fed speaker, Chicago President Goolsbee. For capital markets folks, today is Class D 48-hours. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices better by .125-.250, the 10-year yielding 4.59 after closing yesterday at 4.65 percent, and the 2-year is at 4.96.
Employment
“At Evergreen Home Loans, our mission is simple: equip our clients with affordable strategies to not only buy a home but to make a winning offer. Our unique approach helps families secure their futures and build generational wealth. As we navigate a fluctuating housing market, Evergreen Home Loans remains committed to innovation and client success. Our tailored solutions emphasize stability and long-term prosperity, ensuring that homeownership is a reality for first-time buyers and seasoned investors alike. By fostering a supportive environment and providing strategic financial guidance, we empower our clients to turn their dreams of homeownership into tangible assets that benefit generations. We’re expanding our team and invite skilled loan officers and branch managers to explore the career opportunities we offer. Join us in making a difference and shaping the future of homeownership. To view all openings visit: Careers.”
Synergy One Lending continues to reemerge as one of the industry success stories in 2024. The addition of 12 new branches and the successful expansion of the company’s footprint into several new markets has provided an even stronger foundation of profitable growth as it prepares for even more ahead. A vision with a P&L structure built to grow market share, relentless execution and adoption of leading-edge technology and a culture that is focused on their 3 core values (delighted customers, inspired employees and a pristine reputation) are leading indicators of the company’s trajectory. Be part of it and Make Your Mark by reaching out to Aaron Nemec at (208) 794-7786 or Eric Kulbe at (303) 717-0293.
Geneva Financial, operating in 48 states, announced that Jessie Ermel has joined its leadership team as Chief Compliance Officer where Jessie will drive quality control and compliance for the company’s mortgage operations.
Our industry lost another veteran recently with the death of Alabama’s John Johnson. John was CEO and co-founder of MortgageAmerica, Inc. from 1978 to 2012. But John’s mortgage career began in 1966 at Colonial Mortgage Company and then Molton-Allen & Williams. He served as the Mortgage Bankers Association of Alabama President in 1980-1981 and chaired the organization’s Convention in 1982. John was awarded the Certified Mortgage Banker designation in 1982. was a member of the Board of Directors of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America from 1999-2003, served as Chairman of the Residential Board of Governors in 2001-2002, and was Chairman of the Board of Directors for MERS in 2006. Guys like this helped make our industry what it is today, and he’ll be missed.
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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. However, 2023 tested my model as the inventory growth rate on a week-to-week basis was slow, even when rates headed toward 8%. It’s a simple model: inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly with rates over 7.25%. After failing time and time again, we finally got there this week with 16,582.
Now that inventory is growing more closely with what I am looking for, new listing data must keep its year-over-year growth trend. Last year, when mortgage rates headed toward 8%, we saw no negative hit to the latest listings data, meaning it didn’t take a new leg lower. So, with higher rates now and some growth year over year, I hope we keep the momentum going. We need this to happen to get balance in housing.
Here’s what new listings look like for last week over the last several years:
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
As mortgage rates rise with inventory, the price-cut percentage should increase unless demand keeps up with inventory growth. Last week, we saw a slight decline in the price cuts.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
We had a lot of headline drama last week, between Powell talking about taking rate cuts off the table, escalating war in the Middle East, and economic data beating estimates. This sent the 10-year yield and mortgage rates higher. I talked about this on the HousingWire Daily podcast, discussing my central theme that for the Fed to pivot, it’s labor over Inflation.
When the labor market breaks, the Fed will pivot; we aren’t there just yet. As the chart below shows, many people were looking at the growth rate of inflation falling as the main driver for the Fed, but that isn’t working in this cycle.
One positive story about mortgage rates in 2024 is that the spreads are improving, and that has kept a lid on the damage from higher yields. The spreads are acting a bit better than I thought they would, I had assumed we would need to get closer to rate cuts before they would behave this way. However, this bodes well for the future because if the spreads get back to normal and the 10-year yield falls with it, we can easily get to the low 6s range for mortgage rates and potentially below 6%.
One surprising data point from last week was that purchase application data showed positive growth, and the year-over-year decline was much less.
However, the only reason this happened is that the week before, the Easter holiday negatively impacted the data, which made this week’s growth data need a lot of context. With weekly housing data, holiday activity can move negative and positive, but after two weeks, it gets back on trend. So, take last week’s growth with a grain of salt.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 11 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had five positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
We have new home sales and pending home sales coming up this week, and we will see how much the recent rate increase has impacted the data line. Also, the Fed’s main inflation report, the PCE inflation data, will be released on Friday, so it should be a wild day. Ever since the 10-year yield broke it’s critical support line, the bond market and mortgage rates have been acting up, so this inflation report will be key as the Fed will factor in how much we need mortgage rates to stay higher for longer in this economic expansion.
Source: housingwire.com
It’s the season of new beginnings and fresh starts: Spring cleaning, the outdoors, weddings, gardening and… real estate.
But in a housing market marked by high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and steep home prices, we still haven’t seen a typical spring homebuying season.
Though mortgage application volume is higher than it was last fall when home loan rates peaked above 8%, it’s still 10% lower than it was last year.
As temperatures go up in 2024, experts anticipate a somewhat healthier spring market, with inventory and home listings growing. So far, however, it hasn’t been such a great kickoff: In April, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage pushed back above 7% in response to hot inflation data.
But context is critical, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. “Last year was the all-time low in new listings data,” he said.
Here’s a look at how the spring market is shaping up and what buyers can do to navigate it successfully.
There are several reasons behind the rush of home listings and sales in the springtime and early summer months, according to Jeb Smith, realtor and CNET Money Expert Review Board member.
Beyond seasonal trends, the housing market is highly sensitive to broader economic shifts. Over the past two years, high inflation and surging mortgage rates have done significant damage to affordability for the average homebuyer.
From May 2019 to May 2023, average mortgage rates increased by more than 2%, causing a roughly 25% drop in home sales, according to data from Redfin. Homeowners who are currently “locked in” with low home loan rates have less incentive to sell, which keeps prospective buyers “locked out.”
Meanwhile, many prospective buyers are priced out of the market. According to Zillow, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical US home has almost doubled since January 2020. The average income needed to afford a home is now more than $106,500 — an 80% increase over four years — while the typical US household earns around $81,000 each year.
High mortgage rates also negatively impact existing housing inventory, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. Because most sellers are also buyers, homeowners would rather hold onto their sub-5% mortgage rates than take out a new home loan at a 7% rate.
This “rate-lock” scenario — with sellers reluctant to give up their existing mortgage — is starting to loosen, according to Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. Homeowners have accrued substantial equity over the last period and are more motivated to cash in on it. “Any who were waiting for rates to fall have likely given up,” Divounguy said.
Shrinking housing supply over the past several years has given sellers the upper hand. After all, you can’t buy what’s not for sale.
“In most areas of the country, we still have more buyer demand than inventory, which is typically indicative of a seller’s market,” Smith said. Because of that imbalance, many housing markets continue to be very competitive with multiple offers on homes, he said.
Yet in some areas where supply has returned to pre-pandemic levels, buyers have more of the upper hand. Divounguy said that in markets where new construction has taken off and existing inventory has recovered, price growth is slower, giving buyers better traction in negotiations.
Generally speaking, however, housing supply is still too low. “Even with home sales still trending at record-low levels, we have too many people chasing too few homes,” Mohtashami said.
In a buyer’s market, there’s a surplus of homes for sale and not enough buyers. Buyers have more options and leverage to negotiate lower prices or other concessions from sellers.
In a seller’s market, demand for homes exceeds supply. With more buyers ready to make offers on fewer homes, sellers are at an advantage and asking prices are generally higher.
If mortgage rates were to drop significantly, we’d likely see a substantial uptick in buyer and seller activity. However, 6% mortgage rates are still several months away, keeping a lid on the number of new listings this spring.
At the same time, homeseekers who need to relocate — or those getting tired of waiting on the sidelines — are starting to adjust to the new normal. Many families can’t put their lives on hold forever, and another era of sub-3% mortgage rates isn’t on the horizon.
“Buyers seem to now be accepting this higher-rate environment and are getting back into the market,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage. Many of them know they have the option to refinance to a lower rate when mortgage rates eventually come down, she said.
In February, new listings increased 14.8% from the prior year, the largest annual gain since May 2021, according to Redfin. Currently, there are about 25% more available homes for sale compared with 2023, adding up to around 100,000 extra single-family homes on the market, Smith said. But again, context is critical.
“Even with this increase, the number of homes for sale is still much lower than what we saw before the pandemic hit, indicating we’re not yet back to a ‘normal’ market,” Smith said.
With buyer demand outweighing existing supply, home prices continue to go up. In February, the median sale price was $412,778, which is 6.6% higher than the previous year.
Ultimately, the right time to buy a house depends on your finances, goals and timeline. The housing market has its patterns and fluctuations, but that doesn’t mean it has to dictate what works for you.
If you find a home that meets your needs and aligns with your budget, go for it. You can always refinance to a lower mortgage rate later.
But if you decide to delay buying a house, you can take steps toward having a more solid foundation as a future homeowner. By waiting, you’re giving yourself time to save for a bigger down payment, improve your credit and be in an overall better position to purchase a house, even if it’s not for several spring seasons down the road.
Source: cnet.com