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Whether it’s going to bed before midnight, eating broccoli, or dealing with your finances, doing the “right” thing can sometimes feel like a herculean effort.
Similar to an erratic sleep schedule or an aversion to eating green things, there are consequences to delaying wise financial moves. If you avoid creating a budget, putting your bills on autopay or learning how to invest, your financial life may become more stressful.
But knowing something is good for you isn’t always enough to make you do it. Many people have complicated feelings around money, and for good reason. Getting to the bottom of those feelings may be the most effective way to deal with avoidant tendencies.
Uncovering your financial beliefs
To get to the root of your financial anxieties, it may be helpful to learn about your “money scripts,” a term that’s a registered trademark of the Financial Psychology Institute. Money scripts are what financial therapists call the unconscious beliefs we hold about money. Often, these beliefs are rooted in our childhood and continue to shape our financial lives as adults.
Rick Kahler, a certified financial therapist and founder of the Kahler Financial Group in Rapid City, South Dakota, had one client who struggled to save despite being a high-earning professional. Through several interviews, Kahler learned that the client’s parents had filed for bankruptcy when she was a child, and in the process, she lost her own savings.
“She just knew that all her money that she worked hard to save disappeared. And so the lesson she took away from that was ‘don’t save money, because it will disappear,’” says Kahler.
Georgia Lee Hussey, a certified financial planner and founder of Modernist Financial, a B Corp wealth management firm in Portland, Oregon, says that taking what may seem to be a logical step, such as investing just a small amount, before unearthing your deeper emotions may sometimes do more harm than good.
“The small step to get closer to the logical action is actually a reinforcement of the mega story,” says Hussey.
Tools you can use
While uncovering your money scripts may feel daunting, there are a lot of tools out there that can help you get started. You can take the Klontz Money Script Inventory-Revised (KMSI-R), which is a free short quiz that helps you identify your dominant money scripts and offers actionable advice. The KMSI-R evaluation is offered by Your Mental Wealth Advisors, a financial advisor firm based in Burlingame, California, that focuses on overall financial health. Hussey’s firm offers a similar reflective experience you can download for free that can help you facilitate a conversation about your money history.
And if you’re able, it may be worth working with a financial therapist in conjunction with these tools.
“Working with a financial therapist can really help,” says Kahler. “But if a person doesn’t want to do that, they may want to employ journaling or mindfulness meditation that is specifically geared to money scripts. But typically, people can make pretty good progress in really focusing on their personal situation, and a financial therapist can help with that.”
Be ok with baby steps
After doing some deep work on your money story, and on how your long-held beliefs came to be, you may be feeling ready to take some small steps toward a better financial future.
A few baby steps you can consider could include moving your money into a high-yield savings account instead of a standard savings account. If you have a 401(k) with an employer match, you could also look into contributing enough to receive that match.
But be ready for those old stories to come up, because even an account type like a 401(k) may become an emotional stumbling block.
“One of my favorites from the Great Recession is, ‘I’m not going to invest in a 401(k) because my uncle lost all of his money in his 401(k),’” says Hussey. “It wasn’t the 401(k) that was the problem. It was your uncle, who in the middle of the night got freaked out and sold everything in his 401(k) at the bottom of the market. That’s actually what was wrong. It was the human making an emotional decision. The 401(k) itself is just a tax wrapper. It has no personality. It doesn’t do things to anybody. So let’s unpack what that story is about.”
Hussey encourages people to deeply investigate where the stories they’ve heard about investing came from.
“I think those kinds of questions like, ‘What am I telling myself? Where’s it coming from? Who told it? What was the location I heard that? Where do you think they heard that from?’ That’s how we start to unpack these stories about investing and saving,” says Hussey.
This article was written by NerdWallet and was originally published by The Associated Press.
Source: nerdwallet.com
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Mortgage rates posted a big jump last week after Wednesday’s release of a higher-than-expected inflation report.
As a result, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.24% on Tuesday, up from 7.16% one week earlier. That’s roughly 40 basis points above the rate at the start of the year. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.42%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.64% on Tuesday, up from 6.41% one week earlier.
As the market enters the peak homebuying season, last week’s above-consensus inflation figures brought the mortgage market back to a sour reality: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate may be close to or above the 7% level for longer than previously expected.
“As mortgage rates increase, it’s never good news for the housing market, especially when more sellers are in the mix,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said. “We saw a bounce in demand early in the year as rates fell. However, just like last year, when mortgage rates headed higher, it limits sales growth.”
As of April 12, there were 526,000 active single-family listings on the market, up 2.6% from the previous week, according to Altos Research. This uptick in inventory is a function of high and rising mortgage rates, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
Additionally, there were 66,000 new listings unsold last week plus another 20,000 immediate sales for 86,000 total new listings, up 32% from the same week a year ago.
Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices were up 3.5% in March compared to a year earlier. Investors reacted by adjusting their expectations for the number of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
At the end of 2023, many investors anticipated six rate cuts for the year. A few weeks ago, three cuts became the expected norm. Now it’s two or fewer cuts, and some experts — like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers — have included a rate hike in their scenarios, although the likelihood of that remains low.
In remarks made Tuesday in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that multiple measures of inflation will need to move “sustainably toward 2% before it would be appropriate to ease policy.“
“That said, we think policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face,“ Powell said. “If higher inflation does persist, we can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed. At the same time, we have significant space to ease should the labor market unexpectedly weaken.”
This report was updated to include comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
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Source: housingwire.com
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If you’re ready to shop for a new home, a mortgage preapproval letter shows sellers that you’re a serious buyer who can secure financing from a lender. It also gives you a clear idea of how much you may be eligible to borrow.
To show lenders that you’re a qualified borrower, you’ll need personal identification, pay stubs, bank account statements, a list of your monthly debts, tax returns, W-2 statements and information about your down payment. You’ll also need to submit to a credit check. Most lenders require a credit score of at least 620 for a conventional mortgage, but a higher score will increase your chances of getting preapproved and can lead to lower rate offers.
The lender may also verify your history of making your rent or mortgage payments on time. Depending on whether the lender has additional questions and how much of its preapproval process is automated, accepted borrowers can expect to receive a preapproval letter anywhere from a few hours to a few days after applying.
Even if you have all of the required documentation and a qualifying credit score, don’t take the application process for granted. Lenders will be scrutinizing your financial readiness. Avoiding potential pitfalls will help keep your homebuying goal on track.
Don’t take on any new debts or lines of credit
Lenders want to see that your finances are stable, including your obligations to creditors. Avoid making large purchases on credit or opening additional credit lines, including new credit cards.
“Making large purchases, such as buying a car or expensive furniture on credit, can significantly impact your debt-to-income ratio” says Matt Vernon, head of consumer lending at Bank of America in Charlotte, North Carolina. “By taking on more debt before obtaining preapproval, you could potentially exceed the debt-to-income ratio threshold that lenders are comfortable with, making it harder to qualify for the mortgage amount you need or to obtain favorable terms.”
Don’t create job or income instability
“Lenders prefer borrowers with stable employment and income histories because they view them as less risky,” says Vernon. He adds that changing jobs or having irregular streams of income can alarm lenders and jeopardize your application, even if your income is higher as a result.
If your income fluctuates or is unpredictable — for instance, if you’re in a commission-based role or self-employed — you will also need to demonstrate that your earnings are consistent enough to make your monthly mortgage payment, says Steve Kaminski, head of U.S. residential lending at TD Bank, also based in Charlotte.
Don’t make large deposits without documentation
“Large, unexplained deposits might raise questions about the source of funds or suggest undisclosed debts, which could impact the borrower’s ability to repay the mortgage,” says Vernon. If you’ve received money from a family member toward a down payment, be prepared to provide the lender with a signed letter from your relative that confirms the funds are not a loan. The lender may also ask for additional documentation, such as withdrawal and deposit slips.
Don’t rush the process
Even if you’re eager to shop for homes, it’s imperative to take your time with your mortgage preapproval application. “If anything’s off or missing, it could slow down or even hurt your preapproval process. Take a little extra time to double-check everything to avoid any delays,” Vernon says.
It’s worth your while to look at multiple lenders. Comparing quotes could get you the lowest rate and save you thousands in interest. Researching and narrowing your lender options during preapproval will help you act quickly once you’ve found a home and are ready to move forward with a mortgage application.
Kaminski says, “There is a lot to consider, and it can be overwhelming when combined with the emotion of home shopping and potential stress of low housing inventory and competitive offers.”
While you can’t control the market, you can present the strongest possible personal financial profile. In addition to providing the right information at the right time, you want to avoid any moves that could damage lenders’ perception of your ability to make loan payments. By getting preapproved, you’ll have successfully completed an important step in your homebuying journey.
Source: nerdwallet.com
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Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) has submitted a letter to President Joe Biden, urging him to decrease federal spending and to take action on affordable housing issues.
“A particularly acute concern to Nevadans is the housing market, which is reeling from the combined effects of high inflation and interest rates,” Lombardo said in the letter dated April 11. “Nevadans need more accessible housing, but the rising costs of materials and labor and high interest rates are creating a barrier for Nevadans to achieve their dream of owning a home.”
Lombardo cited data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that compares the median home price in Nevada at the time Biden took office ($342,995) to the figure as of January 2024 ($460,000), and illustrated increases in monthly payment obligations for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) borrowers.
“Utilizing a 3.5% down payment through a [FHA] loan (principal/interest only) in January 2021, the monthly payment on a median home would have been $1,363.00 at the market interest rate of 2.82%,” Gov. Lombardo said in his letter. “Today, that same median home would be $2,808.00 per month at the market interest rate of 6.51% — which is over double the monthly cost to Nevada families.”
Combating the increase in housing costs requires “swift action,” and Lombardo noted that in a prior letter to the president he requested that Biden “make more federal lands available for housing development, so that Nevada can increase its inventory and address shortages to ultimately drive down costs,” he said.
But Biden has recently given voice to concerns he and others have about the national housing market, including in states like Nevada. Last month, Biden gave a speech in Las Vegas where he reiterated elements of his housing plan that were first detailed in the March 7 State of the Union address.
These include a first-time homebuyer tax credit that would offer qualifying beneficiaries $400 a month for two years, adding that this would serve to have the effect of lowering their mortgage rate by roughly 1.5%.
While not specifically mentioning a provision to turn over federal lands for housing development, Biden did say that the White House had “cut red tape so more builders can get federal financing for their new projects” in a move designed to assist states’ congressional delegations to take action on housing issues.
“A record 1.7 million new housing units are under construction nationwide right now because of it. In fact, today, my administration reported that single-family housing starts are at the highest level they’ve been in nearly two years, and my new plan would create 2 million affordable homes — including tens of thousands right here in Nevada,” Biden said.
Housing has become a key issue for many voters headed into the fall election cycle, where both houses of Congress and the White House are up for grabs. The Biden administration first telegraphed housing as a key issue in a briefing prior to the State of the Union speech, and Republicans have largely focused on inflation’s impact on the housing market to rebut the president’s proposals.
While there are some indications of bipartisan cooperation on housing issues despite fundamental disagreements on other hot-button issues, Congress is historically divided. The leadership in the House of Representatives is facing a new, looming challenge, compounding issues that stem from the narrow divide between the parties in the chamber.
Related
Source: housingwire.com
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Reverse mortgage volume dropped in February compared to the month prior, and new data compiled by Reverse Market Insight (RMI) shows that the primary culprit for the month was retail reverse mortgage originations.
The retail channel volume decrease of 15.7% effectively “masked” a gain of 3.9% posted on the wholesale side of the business, according to RMI. To get a better idea of the dynamics driving this data, RMD spoke with Jon McCue, RMI’s director of client relations, for additional perspective and a breakdown of why business moved this way.
Retail vs. wholesale drop
When asked about why retail suffered a heavier drop for the month, McCue said it could stem from a few different factors.
“I know some companies have gone back to brokering their loans because the volumes are not high enough to support their own staff to compete in the full correspondent space, so I’m sure there is an uptick in part to that,” McCue said. “Outside of that, a one-month decline like this is really too early to weigh in heavily with speculation. If this becomes a trend, then I think that would tell us more.”
Four of the top 10 lenders in the space — South River Mortgage, Goodlife Home Loans, Longbridge Financial and Liberty Reverse Mortgage — managed to post gains for the month. When asked about why the bigger lenders sustained drops in the retail and consumer-direct business channels compared to the wholesale side, McCue said part of it is data visibility.
“Given that the vast majority of brokers in the space only do zero to one loans a month, it is easier to see the significant decreases in the larger players since their volumes are more visible to the entire space,” he said.
“Because of this fact, when there are industry headwinds, we tend to see it first in the larger lenders simply because it is easier to see. However, if we go back to the November and December case number assignments, the writing was sort of on the wall that a month like this was coming.”
That’s because those were the two lowest case number assignment months in all of 2023, McCue said. South River Mortgage does not have a wholesale channel, so its growth was due entirely to retail, but for the other lenders it was a bit more channel-driven, with the exception of Longbridge, he added.
“Longbridge led the wholesale channel in February and was No. 3 in retail, so when combined it gave them a nice boost month over month,” McCue said. “Goodlife was all from their wholesale channel, and Liberty was a little bit of a combined effort as well from both its channels.”
Case numbers, product types
In terms of case numbers, the low-issuance months at the end of 2023 served as a bit of a telegraph, McCue noted.
“Since we are speaking of February endorsements, we need to go back to around the November and December case number assignments, which happened to be the lowest in all of 2023 at just over 2,600 and 2,200 respectively,” he explained.
“With that said, you shouldn’t be too surprised to see endorsements fall off in February. However, ever since the start of the year, we have seen an uptick in case numbers, which correlates to the uptick in activity LOs have been seeing and that [RMD has] reported on.”
Earlier in the year, RMD spoke to reverse mortgage managers and loan officers across the country, who did in fact report a more steady stream of inbound inquiries and product interest. Part of that was also due to an apparent increase in originator sentiment around the HECM for Purchase (H4P) product, which RMI hopes to see more of in the months ahead.
“We are firm believers that the H4P product is prime to take off,” McCue said. “When looking at H4P volumes over the years, interest rates have had very little to do with its success. In fact, the lowest levels of H4P were in the lowest rate environment during the 2020 pandemic as inventory tightened and seniors were not interested in moving given all that was happening.”
Industry perseverance
But other data suggests that seniors may be more willing to move again. He cited the 2024 Generational Trends report from by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which indicated that the senior demographic made up the second-largest portions of buyers and sellers.
“This tells me [seniors] are moving again, so what are their options? For the right people in this high interest rate environment, an H4P may just be what they need,” McCue said. “And now that the program has gone through some recent changes, it is more closely related to its forward counterpart.”
The reverse mortgage industry, he added, is adding its own brand of perseverance to the table.
“With the rate environment we are in, it is tough, but case number assignments have been on the rise since January, the H4P product got some much needed improvements, and in speaking with LOs, it sounds like they are keeping busy,” McCue said. “Currently, all signs are pointing in the right direction, but that isn’t because of rates. It’s because of the hard work of all the professionals in this space working very hard to help their clients.”
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Source: housingwire.com
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Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
- Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
- Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
- Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
- Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
- Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
- Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
- Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
- Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
- Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
- Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
Source: forbes.com
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Housing inventory
There are now 526,000 single-family homes active unsold on the market. That’s up 2.6% from the previous week when the data included the Easter holiday. It’s a holiday week jump so it’s not super crazy, but a 2.6% jump in unsold inventory in a week is very notable. This is absolutely a function of high and rising mortgage rates. I’ve been sharing this view for two full years now. As mortgage rates rise, inventory rises. Or, to put it another way: demand slows, inventory grows. So, rates are up and inventory is undeniably growing.
Available inventory of unsold homes on the market is 30% greater than last year at this time and 102% more than in mid-April 2022. There are 120,000 more homes on the market now than there were last year. There are 250,000 more homes on the market now than two years ago. Much of this inventory increase is concentrated is a few key markets.
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Two years ago, rates were obviously rising for the first time in years and inventory was rising too. Inventory was coming off the record lows of the pandemic, but was already increasing 2-3% per week as demand slowed.
Year-over-year inventory growth like this can lead to home-price declines in the future since sales price measures lag way behind the changes in supply and demand. Because we have 30% year-over-year inventory gains now, we’ll be on the lookout for more signals of weakness in home prices as the year progresses.
It’s important to note that we don’t see any signs in the data of a major home-price crash. In early 2022, inventory rose quickly and home prices fell in Q4 of that year. Home prices recovered in 2023 very quickly though. If we finally get some stability in mortgage rates, expect stability also in home prices. If we are in a world of continued rising mortgage rates, supply and demand will continue their imbalance and we’ll likely see price adjustments.
New listings
Inventory growth is from a combination of fewer buyers as affordability worsens, but also gradually improving seller volume. There were 66,000 new listings unsold last week plus another 20,000 immediate sales for 86,000 total new listings. That’s 32% more new listings last week than the same week a year ago.
The measure from last year included last year’s Easter holiday weekend so some of this 32% is from that easy comparison. But each week in 2024 is averaging 13% more sellers than last year at this time. So we have obvious seller growth as we settle into mortgage rates higher for longer.
This concept is counter-intuitive. Many listeners are familiar with the concept of a mortgage rate lock-in. This was the topic of my Top of Mind podcast interview last week with Jonah Coste from FHFA discussing their paper on the lock-in effect.
The lock-in premise is that if rates rise, it becomes more expensive for homeowners to move, so higher rates create more lock-in and fewer sellers. But that’s proving to be only partially true. The lock-in effect keeps us with relatively few sellers: 80,000 instead of 100,000 each week in previous healthy years, but we have more sellers every week than last year even though mortgage rates are higher now.
In fact, there were more new listings last week at 66,000 than any week in 2023 and we have a couple months of spring still for that number to climb.
New pendings
Meanwhile, there were 69,000 new pendings last week. These are homes that were listed, took offers and started the contract process. It takes just under 40 days on average to close the transaction, so these are sales that will close in May for the most part.
The 69,000 contracts is 10% more than a year ago and 7% more than the previous week, which included the Easter holiday. So like the inventory numbers, last week’s big jump is mostly a rebound from the holiday. But it’s really encouraging that sales each week continue to come in ahead of last year.
If rates finally fall, we’ll see this transaction rate accelerate, and we’ll see inventory fall too. But there doesn’t seem to be any inclination of rates falling. This weekly new pendings data is a very handy measure of interest-rate sensitivity.
There are 371,000 single-family homes in contract right now. That’s just 4% more than last year at this time. A lot of places in the country still have fewer sales than last year. The market is trying to grow, but a new jump in mortgage rates doesn’t help. More sales are happening with cash right now, so the mortgage indices are still at record lows. If we get lucky and rates don’t keep climbing, then we’ll continue to see home sales run just a little ahead of last year. The more stable rates stay, the more sales can inch forward.
Home prices
The median price of the homes that took offers last week was $389,900. That is actually below 2022 by 1%. In 2022, home prices still had pandemic momentum into the second quarter. The median price of all the homes in contract is $399,000, which means the homes that sell in April and May will be 5% higher priced than 2023.
The median price of the active market was $447,527 last week. That’s up for the week and 1.7% above last year. The asking prices are leading indicators of where future sales prices will happen. And the growth in those leading indicators is not very strong — just barely above last year at this time.
The price of the newly listed cohort came in pretty strong in the week after Easter at $435,000, which was a new all-time high for that measure. So, not all of the pricing indicators are bearish. That’s good to keep our eyes on.
Price reductions
On the other hand, 32.1% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up a fraction from the previous week, 10 basis points. If this most recent move in mortgage rates is stifling homebuyers, we’ll see the price reductions number jump in next Monday’s video.
Some of the homes that are on the market and expected offers last week didn’t get their offers because of the most recent mortgage rate jump. If they don’t get the offer, then on Monday or Tuesday, a few are going to reduce their asking price to try to stimulate demand.
Two takeaways from the price-reductions data: One, next week we will be watching for how many listings cut their prices as a result of newly higher mortgage rates. We can see that moment in September of 2022 when price cuts jumped and we saw it again last September when rates jumped. Will we see it again in next Monday’s data?
And two, because price cuts are a bit high and climbing now, we have to look at that as a slightly bearish signal for home prices for the rest of the year. Transaction volume is climbing but prices do not appear to be climbing considering these levels of unaffordability.
Source: housingwire.com
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Today’s average mortgage rates
Today’s mortgage rates
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Loan term | Today’s Rate | Last week | Change |
---|---|---|---|
30-year mortgage rate | 7.01% | 6.95% | +0.07 |
15-year fixed rate | 6.46% | 6.34% | +0.12 |
10-year fixed | 6.31% | 6.20% | +0.11 |
5/1 ARM | 6.33% | 6.45% | -0.12 |
30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.15% | 7.04% | +0.11 |
30-year mortgage refinance rate | 7.03% | 6.98% | +0.05 |
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of April 11, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Mortgage interest rate trends
Over the last few years, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed up mortgage rates from their record lows around the pandemic. Since last summer, the Fed has consistently kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Though the central bank doesn’t directly set the rates for mortgages, a high federal funds rate makes borrowing more expensive, including for home loans.
Mortgage rates change daily, but average rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7.5% since late last fall. Today’s homebuyers have less room in their budget to afford the cost of a home due to elevated mortgage rates and steep home prices. Limited housing inventory and low wage growth are also contributing to the affordability crisis and keeping mortgage demand down.
What to expect from mortgage rates in 2024
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates. Most economists predict that the Fed will start lowering interest rates later this summer.
Since mortgage rates fluctuate for many reasons — supply, demand, inflation, monetary policy and jobs data — homebuyers won’t see lower rates overnight, and it’s unlikely they’ll find rates in the 2% range again.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
Picking a mortgage term and type
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.01%, which is an increase of 7 basis points from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.46%, which is an increase of 12 basis points from the same time last week. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.33%, a decrease of 12 basis points from the same time last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
What affects mortgage rates?
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
- Federal Reserve monetary policy: The nation’s central bank doesn’t set interest rates, but when it adjusts the federal funds rate, mortgages tend to go in the same direction.
- Inflation: Mortgage rates tend to increase during high inflation. Lenders usually set higher interest rates on loans to compensate for the loss of purchasing power.
- The bond market: Mortgage lenders often use long-term bond yields, like the 10-Year Treasury, as a benchmark to set interest rates on home loans. When yields rise, mortgage rates typically increase.
- Geopolitical events: World events, such as elections, pandemics or economic crises, can also affect home loan rates, particularly when global financial markets face uncertainty.
- Other economic factors: The bond market, employment data, investor confidence and housing market trends, such as supply and demand, can also affect the direction of mortgage rates.
Calculate your monthly mortgage payment
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Expert tips for the best mortgage rates
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
- Save for a bigger down payment: Though a 20% down payment isn’t required, a larger upfront payment means taking out a smaller mortgage, which will help you save in interest.
- Boost your credit score: You can qualify for a conventional mortgage with a 620 credit score, but a higher score of at least 740 will get you better rates.
- Pay off debt: Experts recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 36% or less to help you qualify for the best rates. Not carrying other debt will put you in a better position to handle your monthly payments.
- Research loans and assistance: Government-sponsored loans have more flexible borrowing requirements than conventional loans. Some government-sponsored or private programs can also help with your down payment and closing costs.
- Shop around for lenders: Researching and comparing multiple loan offers from different lenders can help you secure the lowest mortgage rate for your situation.
Source: cnet.com
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Washington
CNN
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Mortgage rates drifted higher this week, and could increase further, in a sign that America’s affordability crisis isn’t letting up.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.88% in the week ending April 11, up from 6.82% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. A year ago, the average 30-year fixed-rate was 6.27%.
Rates have mostly held steady in the past several weeks, but they could rise even higher, potentially crossing the uncomfortable psychological threshold of 7%, if inflation proves to be more stubborn than expected.
The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and hotter-than-expected inflation readings could keep the central bank from reducing interest rates.
“Mortgage rates have been drifting higher for most of the year due to sustained inflation and the reevaluation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a release. “While newly released inflation data from March continues to show a trend of very little movement, the financial market’s reaction paints a far different economic picture.”
Mortgage rates track the benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s decisions. The yield topped 4.5% Wednesday, the highest level since November, after the latest Consumer Price Index showed persistent price pressures in March. That doesn’t bode well for lower mortgage rates, and economists don’t expect rates to fall below 6% this year, especially if the Fed does not end up cutting interest rates.
But, for now, officials are still expecting to cut rates at some point this year, though that may happen later than previously expected. That could help alleviate some pressure in the country’s tough housing market.
Inventory gains could improve affordability
Mortgage rates are not expected to drop meaningfully this year, but further improvement in housing inventory could improve affordability. The National Association of Realtors said that more homes came to market in February, which helped drive up sales that month.
Homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to lift rates in 2022 have largely preferred not to sell in recent years, contributing to historically low inventory. That may be starting to change.
Total housing inventory rose 5.9% in February from January, to 1.07 million units. Inventory was up 10.3% in February from a year earlier, giving buyers more choices and helping ease some upward pressure on prices.
A lack of homes has been a longstanding issue keeping America’s housing market unaffordable and is especially frustrating for first-time buyers. President Joe Biden has laid out proposals to fix the housing market, such as tax credits and homebuilding initiatives but, even if they receive congressional approval, it’s unclear whether that will be enough.
Despite recent improvements, and even if the Fed does cut rates, as it has indicated, the main issue continues to be that supply simply is not keeping up with demand, keeping a home purchase out of reach for the vast majority of Americans.
Source: cnn.com