LOS ANGELES (AP) — Prospective homebuyers are facing higher costs to finance a home with the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate moving above 7% this week to its highest level in nearly five months.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 7.1% from 6.88% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.39%.
When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford at a time when the U.S. housing market remains constrained by relatively few homes for sale and rising home prices.
“As rates trend higher, potential homebuyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Last week, purchase applications rose modestly, but it remains unclear how many homebuyers can withstand increasing rates in the future.”
AP business correspondent Alex Veiga reports mortgage rates reaching their highest level in months.
After climbing to a 23-year high of 7.79% in October, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage had remained below 7% since early December amid expectations that inflation would ease enough this year for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting its short-term interest rate.
Mortgage rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
But home loan rates have been mostly drifting higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation have stoked doubts over how soon the Fed might decide to start lowering its benchmark interest rate. The uncertainty has pushed up bond yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The Fed wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.
The yield was at 4.64% at midday Thursday after new data on applications for unemployment benefits and a report showing manufacturing growth in the mid-Atlantic region pointed to a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy.
“With no cuts to the federal funds rate imminent and with the economy still strong, there is no reason to see downward pressure on mortgage rates right now,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “It seems increasingly likely that mortgage rates are not going to come down any time soon.”
Sturtevant said it’s likely the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will hold close to 7% throughout the spring before easing to the mid-to-high 6% range into the summer.
Other economists also expect that mortgage rates will ease moderately later this year, with forecasts generally calling for the average rate to remain above 6%.
Mortgage rates have now risen three weeks in a row, a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell last month as home shoppers contended with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.
While easing mortgage rates helped push home sales higher in January and February, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains well above 5.1%, where was just two years ago.
That large gap between rates now and then has helped limit the number of previously occupied homes on the market because many homeowners who bought or refinanced more than two years ago are reluctant to sell and give up their fixed-rate mortgages below 3% or 4%.
Meanwhile, the cost of refinancing a home loan also got pricier this week. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, often used to refinance longer-term mortgages, rose this week, pushing the average rate to 6.39% from 6.16% last week. A year ago it averaged 5.76%, Freddie Mac said.
Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
Housing inventory
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
New listings
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
Pending sales
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
Home prices
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Price reductions
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The spring homebuying season is off to a sluggish start as home shoppers contend with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell 4.3% in March from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the first monthly decline in sales since December and follows a nearly 10% monthly sales jump in February.
Existing home sales also fell 3.7% compared with March last year. The latest sales still came in slightly higher than the 4.16 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
A modest pullback in mortgage rates early this year helped lift home sales in January and February, but rates mostly ticked up in February and March, when many of the home sales that were finalized last month would have taken place.
AP correspondent Shelley Adler reports on the spring homebuying season.
Mortgage rates have risen the past three weeks, with the average rate on a 30-year mortgage moving this week above 7% to its highest level since late November, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday.
The trend is a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.
“Home sales essentially remain stuck because (the) mortgage rate has been stable and inventory is not really rising,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Despite the pullback in sales, the national median home sales price climbed 4.8% from a year earlier to $393,500. That’s the highest median sales price for any March on records going back to 1999 and marks the ninth month in a row that prices have risen compared to a year earlier.
The latest surge in prices reflects the heightened competition many home shoppers are facing. Consider, 60% of homes purchased in March sold within less than a month of hitting the market. And 29% of homes sold above their initial list price, up from 28% in March last year, Yun said.
“Inventory is simply not there,” he said.
While the supply of homes on the market remains below the historical average, the typical increase in homes for sale that happens ahead of the spring homebuying season gave home shoppers a wider selection of properties to choose from.
At the end of last month, there were 1.11 million unsold homes on the market, a 4.7% increase from February and up 14.4% from a year earlier, the NAR said. That’s still well short of the 1.7 million homes on the market in March 2019, before the pandemic.
The available inventory at the end of last month amounted to a 3.2-month supply, going by the current sales pace. That’s up from a 2.9-month supply in February and a 2.7-month supply in March last year. In a more balanced market between buyers and sellers, there is a 4- to 5-month supply.
That shortage of homes on the market means home sellers generally having an edge on buyers, especially those vying for the most affordable homes, which often fetch multiple offers.
The U.S. housing market is coming off a deep, 2-year sales slump triggered by a sharp rise in mortgage rates and a dearth of homes on the market. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank to a nearly 30-year low last year, tumbling 18.7% from 2022 as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage surged to a 23-year high of 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage got as low as 6.67% in mid January, but has been creeping higher, reaching 7.1% this week. When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford.
Mortgage rates have mostly drifted higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation stoked doubt among bond investors over how soon the Federal Reserve will move to lower its benchmark interest rate.
Home loan borrowing rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The central bank wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.
Many economists still expect that mortgage rates will ease modestly this year, which could give homebuyers who can’t afford to pay all cash for a home more purchasing power.
“The 30-year-fixed mortgage rate could rise for few months to maybe even 7.5% before settling back down to 6.5% by the end of the year,” Yun said. In January, NAR forecast the average rate would drop to 6.1% by year’s end.
Economists at Realtor.com also project that the rate could average 6.5% by the end of this year.
For now, first-time homebuyers who don’t have any home equity to put toward their down payment continue to have a tough time getting into the housing market, though they accounted for 32% of all homes sold last month, an increase from 26% in February and 28% in March last year. That’s still well short of the 40% of sales they’ve accounted for historically.
Prospective homebuyers are facing competition from buyers who can afford to buy a home in cash. Some 28% of homes sold last month were purchased entirely with cash, down from 33% in February, but up from 27% a year ago, the NAR said.
Data experts on the mortgage team at NerdWallet dig into NerdWallet’s survey research, as well as public datasets, to identify trends and provide insights on the ever-changing U.S. housing market. On this page, you’ll find some of NerdWallet’s most-read research and commentaries on home buyers and sellers, mortgage interest rates and homeownership.
For NerdWallet statistics and data on additional topics, including credit cards, banking and student loans, head to our studies and data analysis hub.
Have questions or want to speak with a NerdWallet expert? Reach out to [email protected].
Mortgage interest rates
Daily mortgage interest rates
Mortgage interest rates this week
Mortgage interest rates this month
NerdWallet home and mortgages expert Holden Lewis writes a monthly column covering the near-term forecast for mortgage rates.
Annual home buyer report
Every winter, NerdWallet collaborates with The Harris Poll to survey U.S. adults 18 years and older. The results provide a nationally representative snapshot of how Americans perceive the housing market.
2024 Home Buyer Report: Pessimism reigns as home buyers struggle and the goal of homeownership loses some of its luster.
2023 Home Buyer Report: Higher mortgage interest rates and apprehensions about the economy have Americans unsure about their ability to purchase homes.
2021 Home Buyer Report: Pent-up demand from would-be home buyers clashes with a limited supply of homes for sale.
2020 Home Buyer Report: Buying a home is a top priority, especially for younger generations, but some feel locked out of homeownership.
2019 Home Buyer Report: Recent buyers have had to get competitive to close their deals, and many feel stretched by the costs of homeownership.
2018 Home Buyer Report: Homeownership is a widely shared goal, but concerns about costs keep some buyers sidelined.
Quarterly first-time home buyer affordability report
Each quarter, NerdWallet data analyst Elizabeth Renter analyzes information from sources including the U.S. Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Association of Realtors to better understand the challenges facing first-time home buyers.
Q4 2023: A slight bump in inventory isn’t enough to ease affordability challenges.
Q3 2023: Higher mortgage rates outpace slight price declines seen in some metros.
Q2 2023: Seasonality appears to be returning to home prices.
Q1 2023: Banks’ tighter lending standards add to the difficult climate for first-time buyers.
Q3 2022: Price increases slow, but rising mortgage rates eat into potential savings.
Q2 2022: Falling wages and price growth intensify affordability struggles.
Q1 2022: Two years’ worth of data highlights housing market challenges.
Q4 2021: High prices and low inventory are a double whammy in some markets.
Q3 2021: Moderate improvements may be blips, not trends.
Q2 2021: Notable year-over-year decline in affordability.
Q4 2020: Typical winter shifts in the housing market may help home buyers.
Q3 2020: Competition is hot for the limited supply of homes on the market.
Q2 2020: Real estate booms as the country comes out of quarantine.
Q1 2020: Home prices rise, even as the effects of the pandemic are unclear.
Elevated mortgage rates took a bite out of new home sales in February, as they declined slightly from the previous month. Builders continue to respond to affordability concerns; half of the homes sold in February cost under $400,000, compared with 45% in January.
March 25, 2024
Latest housing market columns from Holden Lewis
Additional studies and data analysis
Home buyers
Home improvement
2022 study: After a boom in renovations and DIY projects, homeowners may dial back home improvement plans (Nov. 2022).
2020 study: Homeowners prioritize DIY and paying for projects with cash (Oct. 2020).
Home sellers
2023 data analysis: Why homeowners may want to sell despite higher interest rates (March 2023).
2021 study: What to expect listing a home in a seller’s market (April 2021).
2019 study: What sellers should know before listing (May 2019) .
Housing market
Mortgage denials
2022 data analysis: Higher home prices and debt contribute to home loan denials (Nov. 2023).
2021 data analysis: Competition and lack of collateral drive mortgage denials (Oct. 2022).
2020 data analysis: Tighter lending standards make some home loans harder to obtain (Nov. 2021).
2019 data analysis: Debt-to-income ratio most-cited reason for mortgage denials (Oct. 2020).
Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
The same week last year (March 30-April 7): Inventory rose from 410,734 to 411,577
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,021,567
New listings data
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
2024: 54,769
2023: 55,008
2022: 63,374
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.9%
2022: 17.6%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
Week ahead: Inflation week!
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
The U.S. 15-year mortgage rate is at the lowest level in two months, industry group says
The numbers: The U.S. housing market is feeling a chill once again as home buyers pull back on applying for mortgages with rates staying near 7%.
Yet some buyers are finding rates in the low 6% range by turning to 15-year fixed-rate mortgages instead of the traditional 30-year loan.
Nevertheless, weakening demand overall pushed the market composite index – a measure of mortgage application volume – down in the last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday.
The market index fell 0.6% to 195.6 for the week ending March 29 from a week ago. A year ago, the index stood at 217.9.
Key details: The purchase index – which measures mortgage applications for the purchase of a home – fell 0.1% from a week ago.
The refinance index fell 1.6%.
The average contract rate for the 30-year mortgage for homes sold for $766,550 or less was 6.91% for the week ending March 29. That’s down from 6.93% from the week before.
The rate for jumbo loans, or the 30-year mortgage for homes sold for over $766,550, was 7.06%, down from 7.14% a week ago.
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration was 6.74%, down from 6.75% a week ago.
The 15-year fell to 6.35% from 6.46% from the previous week. The 15-year fixed was at the lowest level in two months, the MBA said.
The rate for adjustable-rate mortgages was up to 6.37%, from 6.27% last week.
The big picture: Home buyers are putting off buying a home due to elevated mortgage rates straining how much they can afford.
Even though for-sale inventory has shown signs of rising in recent weeks, demand isn’t picking up, which means that sales activity will not pick up as quickly.
To be sure, the data does not fully capture buyer demand as some are buying homes without mortgages. A third of home buyers paid for their home purchases with cash in February, as real-estate brokerage Redfin notes.
What the MBA said: “Elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh down on home buying,” Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA, said in a statement. “Purchase applications were unchanged overall, although [Federal Housing Administration] purchases did pick up slightly over the week.”
-Aarthi Swaminathan
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
LOS ANGELES — The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate climbed back to nearly 7% this week, pushing up borrowing costs for home shoppers.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose last week from 6.74% to 6.87%, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.42%. The average rate is now just below where it was two weeks ago.
Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also rose this week, pushing the average rate last week from 6.16% to 6.21% . A year ago it averaged 5.68%, Freddie Mac said.
When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford in a market already out of reach for many Americans.
“After decreasing for a couple of weeks, mortgage rates are once again on the upswing,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
Investors’ expectations for future inflation, global demand for U.S. Treasurys and what the Federal Reserve does with its short-term interest rate can influence rates on home loans.
After climbing to a 23-year high of 7.79% in October, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage has remained below 7% since early December. Rates eased amid expectations that inflation was cooling enough for the Fed to begin lowering its short-term interest rate by this spring. But a spate of stronger-than-expected reports on inflation, the job market and the economy in recent weeks dimmed that outlook, sending mortgage rates higher through most of February.
Many economists expect that mortgage rates will ultimately ease moderately this year, but that’s not likely to happen before the Federal Reserve begins cutting its benchmark interest rate. On Wednesday, the central bank kept its rate unchanged and signaled again that it expects to make three rate cuts this year, but not before it sees more evidence that inflation is slowing.
“The Fed’s announcement that it is holding interest rates steady for now was not unexpected, but it does mean that mortgage rates are going to remain higher for longer,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.
The U.S. housing market is coming off a deep, 2-year sales slump triggered by a sharp rise in mortgage rates and a dearth of homes on the market. The overall decline in rates since their peak last fall has helped lower monthly mortgage payments, providing more financial breathing room for homebuyers facing rising prices and a shortage of homes for sale this year.
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in February from the previous month to the strongest pace in a year. That followed a month-to-month home sales increase in January.
Still, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains well above where it was just two years ago at 4.42%. That large gap between rates now and then has helped limit the number of previously owned homes on the market by discouraging homeowners who locked in rock-bottom rates from selling.
The year 2024 has started with cautious optimism that mortgage rates will drop, sparking much-needed activity in the sluggish U.S. housing market.
Mortgage rates, however, have been on a rising trend of late. Recent data shows that the economy is booming, while the Federal Reserve is signaling that it will take its time before cutting benchmark interest rates.
HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.21% on Feb. 23. And according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average rate inched closer to 7% this week.
Fannie Mae, however, remains optimistic that housing market activity will pick up as existing home sales and new single-family housing starts are expected to grow modestly in 2024.
While existing home sales dipped slightly in December by 1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million units, an increase in mortgage applications and December pending home sales that led to average closing times of 30 to 45 days indicate that a modest rebound in sales is underway.
With a low supply of existing homes for sale, demand for new homes is likely to remain strong, and the limit on new home sales will be determined by homebuilder production capacity, according to a report released Friday by Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group.
“Single-family permits in contrast edged up 1.6 percent in January, back in line with the overall starts series,” the report noted. “With single-family permits and starts now back in alignment, we expect new single-family construction to continue to drift upward in coming months.”
Fannie Mae forecasts total mortgage origination volume of $1.92 trillion in 2024, down slightly from $1.98 trillion in its previous forecast. Volume is expected to climb to $2.36 trillion in 2025, compared to the ESR group’s January forecast of $2.44 trillion.
Softening economic growth anticipated
The ESR group upgraded its 2024 macroeconomic growth outlook due to a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) report, as well as incoming data on recent population growth and immigration trends that point to faster payroll and GDP gains over the forecast horizon.
Fannie Mae’s 2024 GDP outlook is for 1.7% growth in 2024, compared to 3.1% in 2023. The ESR group previously forecast a “mild recession” for 2024.
“An unsustainably low savings rate suggests softer consumer spending going forward, consistent with the pullback in January retail sales, and slowing local and state tax receipts point to slower direct government spending growth,” the report stated.
Further, while payroll growth looks to have reaccelerated in December and January, other labor market measurements indicate softness. The ESR group expects that the labor market “on net” is likely to cool in the near future.
“Market dynamics continue to reflect significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of stronger-than-expected recent GDP growth, the continuity of the decline of inflation, and the path of monetary policy change, not to mention the many ways in which historical relationships in housing and the larger economy remain out of balance post-pandemic,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, said in the report.
The average long-term rate remains in the mid-6% range, Freddie Mac said. The rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, popular for home refinances, fell to 5.90% from 5.94% last week.
LOS ANGELES— The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate edged higher this week, reflecting a recent uptick in the 10-year Treasury yield.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.64% from 6.63% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.12%.
“Mortgage rates remain stagnant, hovering in the mid-6% range over the past several weeks,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
The move echoes an increase this week in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing loans. The yield moved above 4% this week as bond traders reacted to the government’s January’s jobs report. The surprisingly strong report stoked worries that it could persuade the Federal Reserve to wait longer before it begins cutting interest rates.
Hopes for such cuts amid signs that inflation has declined from its peak two summers ago have been a major reason the 10-year Treasury yield has mostly pulled back since October, when it climbed to its highest level since 2007.
In an interview broadcast Sunday night, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank remains on track to cut its benchmark interest rate three times this year, a move that economists expect could begin as early as May.
Investors’ expectations for future inflation, global demand for U.S. Treasurys and what the Fed does with interest rates can influence rates on home loans.
The cost of refinancing a home got a little bit less expensive this week. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, fell this week, pulling the average rate down to 5.90% from 5.94% last week. A year ago, it averaged 5.25%, Freddie Mac said.
The cost of financing a home has been mostly easing since late October, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage hit 7.79%, the highest level since late 2000. So far this year, the weekly average has ranged between 6.60% and 6.69%.
The overall decline in rates since their peak last fall has helped lower monthly mortgage payments, providing more financial breathing room for homebuyers facing rising prices and a shortage of homes for sale as the spring homebuying season nears.
Still, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains sharply higher than just two years ago, when it was 3.69%.
Many economists are projecting that mortgage rates will continue heading lower this year, though forecasts generally have the average rate on a 30-year home loan hovering around 6% by the end of the year.
“Homebuyers should expect mortgage rates to move lower as we head through 2024, but that does not necessarily mean it will be easier to buy a home,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. “Waiting to buy later this year might mean a buyer can get a lower rate, but prices are still rising, and inventory will still be tight, which means the market will still be competitive.”
Elevated mortgage rates and a dearth of available homes have kept the U.S. housing market mired in a slump the past two years. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank to a nearly 30-year low last year, tumbling 18.7% from 2022.
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