Lloyds profits fall as competition for mortgages heats up
Pre-tax profits drop to £1.6bn between January and March, down from £2.3bn last year
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Lloyds Banking Group has suffered a 28% drop in first-quarter profits amid tough competition for mortgages and savings, but bosses said they expected those pressures to soon ease, helped by an improving UK economy.
The country’s largest mortgage lender, which also owns the Halifax brand, said pre-tax profits dropped to £1.6bn between January and March, having fallen from £2.3bn last year when rising interest rates boosted the lender’s profits by almost 50%.
The bank’s chief financial officer, William Chalmers, said this reflected “keen pricing in the mortgage markets, and savings moving into higher rate accounts”. Competition and jitters in the mortgage market led to a drop in its total outstanding loan book.
It resulted in a 10% drop in net interest income, which accounts for the difference in loan charges versus what is paid out to savers, to £3.2bn in the three months to March.
Pressure from politicians and regulators to pass on interest rates to savers at the same rate they had been raising mortgage and loan charges has squeezed income for major mortgage providers such as Lloyds in recent months.
In response, banks have had to compete harder for customer deposits by offering more substantial returns, particularly on fixed savings products where consumers lock away cash for longer. It attracted £1.3bn in regular customer deposits but that failed to make up for the £3.5bn pulled by business clients.
However, Chalmers said these savings and mortgage pressures were likely to “ease through 2024”, as economic conditions continued to improve.
House prices, which Lloyds previously expected to fall by 2.2% in 2024, are forecast to rise by 1.5% by the end of the year.
The banking group, often seen as a bellwether for the UK economy, is also forecasting a steady improvement in economic growth, at a rate of 0.3% in most quarters and a drop in inflation to 2.4% – from 3.2% in March – resulting in a fall in interest rates to 4.5% by December. It expects the Bank of England to cut rates three times in 2024, starting in the middle of the year.
Chalmers said mortgage applications had already soared by 20% in the first quarter, which could translate into new home loans, and reverse some of its loan book losses. That partly reflected the group’s willingness to offer better interest rates in order to boost lending.
“We’re really pleased to see the pickup in applications, and development of our market share, in that respect. And I think that represents what is a series of competitive offers out there in the market, suiting our customer needs. We’d hope to maintain that ambition over the course of the year,” Chalmers said.
Overall, the banking boss said he expected the UK mortgage market to pick up by 5% by the end of 2024. “We’d hope to play a major part in it,” Chalmers added.
The improved economic outlook meant the bank was more confident that customers could repay their loans. Despite the cost of living crisis and higher mortgage repayments, which have weighed on borrowers, Lloyds set aside £57m for potential defaults, compared with £243m last year.
The Lloyds chief executive, Charlie Nunn, said: “The group is continuing to deliver in line with expectations in the first quarter of 2024, with solid net income, cost discipline and strong asset quality. Our performance provides us with further confidence around our strategic ambitions and 2024 and 2026 guidance.”
Investors had also been hoping for updates on the Financial Conduct Authority investigation into whether consumers have been charged inflated prices for car loans. Lloyds, which has the largest car loan division of the four biggest UK banks, has already put aside £450m – far short of the £2bn that analysts believe it could be on the hook for.
However, Lloyds did not give any more details about whether it might put aside more cash to cover potential fines or compensation for customers. The FCA has indicated that it will give more details on its findings by the autumn.
Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
Mohtashami kicked off the sessions by talking about the differences between the current mortgage rate environment and some of what was seen in the early days of the financial crisis of the 2000s, saying that Americans generally are in a much better position than they were back then.
The Fed has recently indicated that it is not likely to reduce interest rates anytime soon due to economic indicators, and Mohtashami revived a 2022 prediction about what it will take to get the Fed to “break” on rates.
“In 2022, I brought up the premise that the Fed will not pivot until the labor market breaks,” he said. “So, if all of you are looking for a sustained lower move in mortgage rates, that’s what you’re going to see.”
While a lot of the oxygen in the discussion is taken up by inflation, Mohtashami asserts that’s not what the Fed is primarily focused on.
“What the Fed wants to see is the labor market get very soft and to the point that it’s breaking, and then they will find all the confidence in the world to do rate cuts and talk about making sure we have a soft landing,” he said.
Reading the data, he said, might tell a different story about the situation as opposed to strictly paying attention to what Fed officials are saying.
Illuminating data points include wage growth, job openings, the number of people quitting to find higher-paying work, and jobless claims on a weekly or monthly basis. These help observers to monitor changes in the labor market similarly to the Fed, he explained.
From there — and when combined with employment in construction and housing permit data — the thinking around rates will become clearer.
“If the labor market gets softer and the Fed starts getting a little bit more dovish, then not only can the spreads get better, but if the 10-year yield goes down, there’s your 6% [or] sub-6% mortgage rates,” he said. “But this means the labor market has to break. So, we’re all focusing on inflation, but not what really matters.”
Simonsen: More data, less ‘vibes’
A lot of the conversation in the housing market can be focused on “vibes,” or general feelings about the way things are going. Simonsen explained to attendees at The Gathering that focusing instead on real-time data is key to having accurate, predictive indicators about where the market is at and where it will go.
Simonsen began his presentation by talking about an early Altos interaction with both Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. In 2007, right around the time he started Altos Research, he was attending a conference where representatives of both companies were speaking. After they finished speaking, he aimed to pitch both companies on why they might need the kind of data Altos specializes in.
He recalled his pitch.
“I’m Mike Simonsen, my company is Altos Research, and we track every home for sale in the country every week,” he recalled saying. “We check all the pricing, all the supply and demand, and all the changes in that data, and we give that to you because traditional housing data is months behind the curve before you see what’s happening.”
The Lehman representative turned him down flatly, saying, “We’ve got so much more data than you can possibly imagine. We’re making so much money. Don’t even bother,” Simonsen recalled.
The Goldman representative was more open to hearing what he had to say, and 12 weeks later engaged with Altos as a client. A year later, Lehman Brothers went out of business, Simonsen explained.
Simonsen asserted that monitoring changing data points on a daily and weekly basis — including inventory levels, new and pending home sales, and home price data and signals —can help to more efficiently track the impact of mortgage rates.
“I believe that our obligation is to communicate with the data for everybody in the cycle, from the biggest players down to every single homebuyer and seller,” Simonsen said.
He began by looking at fresh inventory data.
“The biggest takeaway from when we’re looking at the inventory numbers is rising rates constitute rising inventory — or put another way, demand slows, inventory grows,” he said. “And that’s actually counterintuitive for a lot of folks who are just casually looking at the data.
“They think, ‘Mortgage rates are higher, nobody’s going to sell, therefore inventory is going to fall when rates fall again. Then we’ll finally get some inventory.’ But the data shows that actually, the opposite is true.”
Multiple years of higher rates will be needed to return inventory to pre-pandemic levels, but inventory growth is rising across the country, particularly in states like Florida and Texas, he explained.
More home sellers are also starting to enter the market. Last year, rising rates depressed seller participation, but higher rates are starting to be seen as more of a norm. A general sense of predictability will allow more sellers to enter the market, he said.
Prices are likely to remain stable due to higher rates, he added.
“More data, less vibes,” Simonsen said.
Fairweather: Less affordability
Daryl Fairweather of Redfin primarily spoke about housing demand; generational participation in the market; the impact of climate events and natural disasters on homebuying activity; and the flexibility that renters might experience, particularly as weather events become more prominent nationwide.
“People are spending more and more of their money on housing, and housing isn’t getting any more affordable,” she said. “We still have this underlying shortage of homes.”
But the presentation was primarily designed to be forward looking, and in that respect, interest rates and inflation are elevated, but the economy is growing. Demographics are also changing, with millennials being the largest generation and Gen Z being smaller but increasingly influential in the economy.
Changing preferences and economic realities are also disrupting long-standing paradigms related to housing in the U.S., she said.
“It used to be that homeownership was the American dream, and now it’s more the American pipe dream,” Fairweather said. “People just feel like it’s a ‘pie in the sky’ thing for them to achieve because housing affordability keeps getting worse and worse.”
Climate is also a very real issue having an impact on the housing market, Fairweather said.
“For a long time I would talk about a changing climate and people would say ‘That’s a problem for the future,’” she said. “But now, we’re seeing insurance costs going up and people are deciding where to live based on the climate. It’s becoming a more and more important issue in the housing market.”
Fairweather shared that Redfin experimented in 2020 to analyze the impacts that climate change can have on homebuying behavior over a three-month period in which users were divided into two pools: one that showed them a view of flood risk and one that did not.
“In the control view, there is no flood risk, and then in the treatment view, you could see flood risk for every single home that’s on Redfin,” she said. “The people that were shown flood risk — if they were previously looking at severely or extremely risky homes for flood risk — they went on to buy homes that had half as much risk when they saw that information,” she said.
This communicates a potential value-add opportunity for mortgage professionals to offer more robust climate information, in addition to where interest rates are projected to go or demographic information.
“[That can help] inform them about how to make the best homebuying decision,” Fairweather said.
When it comes to saving for retirement, you have many options to choose from. But one that you may not have considered is investing in gold—namely, a gold IRA.
A gold IRA is a simple yet innovative type of individual retirement account (IRA). Instead of the conventional holdings of stocks and bonds, it invests in precious metals, primarily gold, but also in silver and platinum.
Investing in a gold IRA presents a potential opportunity for safeguarding your savings from economic turmoil and expanding the diversity of your asset portfolio. Nevertheless, it’s important to keep in mind that a gold IRA may not be a suitable option for everyone, and a thorough evaluation of your personal financial situation is crucial before making an investment decision.
This article will provide you with a comprehensive understanding of gold IRAs and equip you with the knowledge necessary to make an informed investment choice.
What is a Gold IRA?
A gold IRA, also known as a precious metals IRA, is a type of investment vehicle that gives you the ability to hold physical gold, silver, and other valuable metals. You have the option of funding this account either with pre-taxed money or as a Roth IRA with post-tax funds.
Your savings will not be invested in stocks, bonds, or mutual funds but rather in precious metal coins or bullion, providing a tangible form of investment. The tax rules and procedures for a precious metals IRA are similar to those of any other IRA.
Investing in gold bullion and other precious metals goes beyond just IRAs. Some investors choose to purchase stocks or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in gold mining companies or precious metal funds. However, the majority of gold investors prefer to keep their investments in physical precious metals.
Types of Gold IRAs
There are three main types of gold IRAs: traditional, Roth, and SEP.
Traditional gold IRA: – Traditional gold IRAs are funded with pre-tax dollars and require you to pay income tax on withdrawals in retirement.
Roth gold IRA – Roth IRAs are funded with after-tax dollars and allow for tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals in retirement.
SEP gold IRA – SEP IRAs are intended for self-employed or small business owners and are funded with pre-tax dollars. Contribution limits are different, and business owners can contribute on behalf of their employees.
The IRS has strict guidelines for the kinds of metals that can be included in a gold IRA. The only precious metals that can be included are gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.
Here is an overview of each of the IRS-approved precious metals, as well as the requirements for each.
1. Gold
To be eligible for inclusion in a self-directed gold IRA, gold coins or bars must adhere to stringent purity standards, with a minimum of 99.5% purity. Any gold that fails to meet this standard will be rejected.
Should the gold pass the purity test, it must be securely stored in an approved depository, which is a specialized facility specifically designed to protect precious metals.
Having a trusted and IRS-approved custodian is also a requirement, who will serve as the trustee of the IRA and oversee the safekeeping of the gold. Some of the most sought-after gold coins and bars for IRAs include:
American Gold Eagle coins
American Gold Buffalo coins
Australian Gold Kangaroo/Nugget coins
Austrian Gold Philharmonic coins
Johnson Matthey Gold bar
Valcambi Gold CombiBar
Canadian Gold Maple Leaf coins
Credit Suisse Gold bars
2. Silver
The purity of silver coins must be at least 99.9% to be eligible for deposit in a gold IRA. The following is a list of silver coins and bars that meet the approval criteria for inclusion in an IRA:
American Silver Eagle coins
Australian Kookaburra Silver coins
Austrian Philharmonic Silver coins
Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins
Mexican Silver Libertad coins
Johnson Matthey Silver bar
Royal Canadian Mint Silver bar
3. Platinum
Platinum coins and bars must meet or exceed a purity standard of 99.95%. Here is a list of IRA-approved platinum bars and coins to consider:
American Eagle Platinum coins
Australian Koala Platinum coins
Canadian Maple Leaf Platinum coins
Isle of Man Noble coins
4. Palladium
And finally, palladium must meet a purity standard of 99.95% or higher. Here is a list of IRA-approved palladium bars and coins:
Canadian Palladium Maple Leaf coins
Russian Ballerina Palladium coins
Baird Palladium bars
Credit Suisse Palladium bars
If you’re interested in investing in a gold IRA, you need to be mindful of the accepted metals. While there may be other precious metal bars and coins that are sought after by collectors, they may not be eligible for investment within a gold IRA. To ensure you’re making the right investment decisions, it’s best to work with a trusted precious metals company.
To avoid any issues, make sure to double-check with your IRA company before investing in any precious metals you’re unsure about. Here’s a list of metals that are not approved for investment in a gold IRA:
Austrian Corona
Belgian Franc
British Sovereign and Britannia
Chilean Peso
Chinese Panda coins
Dutch Guilder
French 20 Franc
Hungarian Korona
Italian Lira
Mexican Peso
South African Krugerrand
Swiss Franc
Pros and Cons of Gold IRAs
Before investing in a gold IRA, it’s important to weigh the pros and cons. Here are some key factors to consider before making a decision.
Pros
Since the Financial Crisis of 2008, gold IRAs have become a popular investment option for people looking to diversify outside the stock market. Many people believe that gold is a good way to protect yourself against inflation.
And gold IRAs are not as difficult to invest in as they were in the past. Due to increased demand, there are more legitimate gold IRA companies available that will help you buy and manage your gold and precious metals investment.
Cons
One of the biggest downsides to opening a gold IRA is that the startup costs can be high. Plus, gold doesn’t pay dividends or interest, which kind of defeats the purpose of putting it in a tax-advantaged investment.
Plus, many people find it tricky to make withdrawals on gold IRAs, since gold isn’t a liquid asset.
You also need to be sure that you’re working with a reputable company that knows what they’re doing. Otherwise, it’s easy to fall victim to scam artists.
How to Get Started With a Gold IRA
Starting a gold IRA requires opening a self-directed IRA account, which offers greater flexibility in terms of investment options. You’ll be responsible for managing this retirement account, but you’ll need the assistance of a broker for buying gold and securing your assets.
When selecting a custodian, consider a bank, credit union, or brokerage firm that has been approved by a state or federal agency. You may also ask your gold dealer for recommendations on trusted brokers.
Start-Up Costs to Open a Gold IRA
Unlike traditional IRAs, a gold IRA comes with a few extra expenses. Here are some of the most significant expenses you’ll need to know about:
The markup fee: When you buy gold or precious metals, you may have to pay a markup fee. This is a one-time upfront fee, and it will vary based on the vendor you choose.
IRA setup fee: The setup fee is another one-time fee you’ll pay to set up your IRA account. Again, this will vary depending on the broker you choose. However, it will likely be more costly because not every firm deals with gold IRAs.
Custodian fees: You’ll have to pay an annual fee for the custodian who’s managing your gold IRA.
Storage fees: Your gold must be stored in a secure, approved location. For that reason, you’ll have to pay annual storage fees.
Bottom Line
If you seek to diversify your portfolio beyond the stock market, a gold IRA could be a suitable option. Precious metals like gold are often considered secure investments and can act as a safeguard against inflation.
On the other hand, other methods of asset diversification may be more economical and less cumbersome. Some people regard gold as a poor choice for a tax-deferred investment, as it does not produce income.
If you opt for a gold IRA, be sure to thoroughly research your metals dealer and custodian, to ensure the protection of your investment and to steer clear of scams.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is a gold IRA a good investment?
It depends on your personal financial circumstances and investment objectives. While some view gold as a way to hedge against inflation and diversify their portfolio, others may not find value in physically investing in the precious metal. To make an informed decision, it’s crucial to thoroughly examine both the potential risks and benefits before investing in a gold IRA.
How do I set up a gold IRA?
To set up a gold IRA account, you will need to find a gold IRA company that specializes in setting up precious metals IRAs. Gold IRA companies will provide you with the necessary paperwork and guidance to open and fund your account.
Are there any restrictions on what types of gold I can hold in my IRA?
Yes, there are specific rules for the types of gold that can be held in a precious metals IRA. The gold must be at least 99.5% pure and must be in the form of coins or bars from an approved refinery or mint. Some common examples of approved gold coins include the American Gold Eagle and the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf.
What is the difference between a traditional IRA, Roth IRA, and SEP IRA?
A traditional IRA is a tax-advantaged account that allows you to contribute pre-tax dollars and potentially receive a tax deduction on your contributions.
A Roth IRA, on the other hand, is a retirement account that accepts post-tax contributions, but all qualified withdrawals, including earnings, are tax-free.
Lastly, a SEP IRA is a retirement savings plan designed for self-employed individuals and small business owners. It enables them to make tax-deductible contributions to a traditional IRA for themselves and their employees.
According to the latest Census Bureau report, housing starts declined 14.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million units in March. Multifamily starts plunged 20.8% to 290,000, while single-family starts fell 12.4% to a rate of 1.02 million. The continued imbalance between supply and demand is expected to keep home prices rising, according … [Read more…]
Today’s average mortgage rates on Apr. 19, 2024, compared with one week ago. We use rate data collected by Bankrate as reported by lenders across the US.
Current mortgage interest rates
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Product
Rate
Last week
Change
30-year fixed
7.13%
7.02%
+0.11
15-year fixed
6.64%
6.44%
+0.20
10-year fixed
6.51%
6.37%
+0.14
5/1 ARM
6.79%
6.60%
+0.19
30-year jumbo mortgage rate
7.40%
7.20%
+0.20
30-year mortgage refinance rate
7.11%
6.97%
+0.13
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of April 16, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Mortgage interest rate trends
Over the last few years, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed up mortgage rates from their record lows around the pandemic. Since last summer, the Fed has consistently kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Though the central bank doesn’t directly set the rates for mortgages, a high federal funds rate makes borrowing more expensive, including for home loans.
Mortgage rates change daily, but average rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7.5% since late last fall. Today’s homebuyers have less room in their budget to afford the cost of a home due to elevated mortgage rates and steep home prices. Limited housing inventory and low wage growth are also contributing to the affordability crisis and keeping mortgage demand down.
What to expect from mortgage rates in 2024
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates. Most economists predict that the Fed will start lowering interest rates later this summer.
Since mortgage rates fluctuate for many reasons — supply, demand, inflation, monetary policy and jobs data — homebuyers won’t see lower rates overnight, and it’s unlikely they’ll find rates in the 2% range again.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
How to select a mortgage term and type
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average interest rate for a standard 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.13%, which is a growth of 11 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.64%, which is an increase of 20 basis points from the same time last week. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.79%, an uptick of 19 basis points from seven days ago. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
What factors affect mortgage rates?
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Federal Reserve monetary policy: The nation’s central bank doesn’t set interest rates, but when it adjusts the federal funds rate, mortgages tend to go in the same direction.
Inflation: Mortgage rates tend to increase during high inflation. Lenders usually set higher interest rates on loans to compensate for the loss of purchasing power.
The bond market: Mortgage lenders often use long-term bond yields, like the 10-Year Treasury, as a benchmark to set interest rates on home loans. When yields rise, mortgage rates typically increase.
Geopolitical events: World events, such as elections, pandemics or economic crises, can also affect home loan rates, particularly when global financial markets face uncertainty.
Other economic factors: The bond market, employment data, investor confidence and housing market trends, such as supply and demand, can also affect the direction of mortgage rates.
Calculate your monthly mortgage payment
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Tips for finding the best mortgage rates
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Save for a bigger down payment: Though a 20% down payment isn’t required, a larger upfront payment means taking out a smaller mortgage, which will help you save in interest.
Boost your credit score: You can qualify for a conventional mortgage with a 620 credit score, but a higher score of at least 740 will get you better rates.
Pay off debt: Experts recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 36% or less to help you qualify for the best rates. Not carrying other debt will put you in a better position to handle your monthly payments.
Research loans and assistance: Government-sponsored loans have more flexible borrowing requirements than conventional loans. Some government-sponsored or private programs can also help with your down payment and closing costs.
Shop around for lenders: Researching and comparing multiple loan offers from different lenders can help you secure the lowest mortgage rate for your situation.
“So all the new permits that are getting [approved], all the new lands that are getting bought now – we’re not going to see anything until 2026-27 at this point,” he said. “So we need five, six years of that market.” US mortgage rates last week topped 7% for the first time in a month, … [Read more…]
MSR Execution, VOI, Post-Closing Audit, Client Acquisition Tools; May Training and Events
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MSR Execution, VOI, Post-Closing Audit, Client Acquisition Tools; May Training and Events
By: Rob Chrisman
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 11:12 AM
What loan officer hasn’t had a memorable co-signing experience? Some more so than others. Along those lines, if you head to Disneyland or Disneyworld, and find bone chips or ashes on the floor of your favorite ride, it is probably not an accident. Nor is eking out a gain, or at least breaking even, in residential lending an accident. At the Great River Conference in Memphis, much of the information being presented is about how to do things more efficiently. And for good reason, as the MBA’s calculations for IMBs and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks last showed that total loan production expenses (commissions, compensation, occupancy, equipment, and other production expenses and corporate allocations) increased to $12,485 per loan in the fourth quarter. On the income side of things, borrowers who obtained adjustable-rate mortgage loans (ARMs, for lack of a better acronym) 3 or 5 or 7 years ago have popped up on LO screens for refinances, and you can bet that the companies who own that servicing are all over those borrowers “like hounds on a meat wagon.” (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. OB’s smart solutions automate critical functions like pricing, hedging, trading, and social media. More originators and investors rely upon Optimal Blue’s integrated solutions, data, and connections to support their unique business strategies, no matter how complex. Hear an interview with Optimal Blue’s Mike Vough on refining margin management to improve loan profitability and reduce risk.)
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
For many non-QM lenders, real estate investors make up nearly half of their pipeline. Despite stubbornly high interest rates and low inventory, these borrowers continue to transact in this market, opening up an opportunity for lenders to capture this business. However, capturing this business with traditional marketing and sales efforts is not easy. Unless you have Privy. With Privy, you can now automate real estate investor and borrower acquisition and retention. With just a click of a button, borrowers are able to engage with you at any stage of the transaction process, from just browsing to ready to transact. Let effective technology help drive your DSCR, asset depletion, and fix and flip loan volume. Contact Brad Bieber (803-730-5032) to learn more about Privy’s Enterprise Solutions.
A 30-minute meeting with Planet Home Lending’s Correspondent sales team at the MBA Secondary & Capital Markets Conference could be the catalyst for a year-round boost in your business. Join us in the Gotham III Ballroom at the InterContinental New York Times Square. Don’t wait: secure your spot now before they’re all booked! Get in touch with your Regional Sales Manager or SVP Correspondent Sales, Jim Loving (414-270-0027) to explore our continually refined product lineup spanning vanilla to niche products all tailored to your unique needs: Best effort, mandatory AOT, delegated, or non-delegated.
“Regional Credit Union Attributes Successful Audit Process to QC Ally Partnership! In a world where integrity is everything, QC Ally prides itself on building a foundation of trust with each client partner. Recently, we sat down with Bill James, Chief Risk Officer at Marine Credit Union, to discuss how QC Ally helped them achieve a formalized, unbiased pre-fund and post-close audit process with custom loan sampling. As Bill put it, ‘We’ve been very happy with QC Ally. We stacked QC Ally up against very strong competition, and they really won hands down. The service levels you provide and your own staff with very deep, rich experience are unmatched.’ Learn more here.”
As certain wines age, their tannins bind together in a process called polymerization, creating a smoother, rounder flavor that’s more desirable, and, often, more valuable, than when first vinted. Are your mortgage technology partners improving like fine wine? That’s been the experience of Lake Michigan Credit Union, which just shared new success metrics regarding its use of income and employment verification from Argyle. It’s been about a year since LMCU switched to Argyle for VOIE, and the credit union can now quantify its time and cost savings at a whopping 3 weeks and $100 per closed loan. Read the updated case study findings here.
Mortgage Capital Trading, the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology, introduces a game-changing best execution technology for MSR retain and release decisions all in one platform. With this groundbreaking development, MCT’s Enhanced Best Execution (EBX) solution emerges as a real-time bridge between MCTlive! (live whole loan/SRP execution) and MSRlive! (loan level MSR valuation), revolutionizing the landscape of best execution strategies in the mortgage industry. MCT clients now have accurate insight into how loans are trading and what investors are paying along with the intrinsic servicing value to enhance the retained vs. released decisioning process. What was once a manual, time-consuming exercise is now completely automated with EBX, making all of the essential execution data elements accessible with the click of a button. Read the latest press release or join MCT’s upcoming webinar to learn more about their latest innovation.
Events and Training
A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here, and click on “Conference List” for in-person events in the future. Yes, there’s plenty ahead in April, but I thought for travel planning purposes it would be to glance ahead to May as vendors and lenders take a critical look at travel & entertainment budgets.
National MI University’s May Webinars: Leading With Style with Andrew Oxley – May 7th at 2pm ET. Income Analysis for Conventional Loans with Marianne Collins – May 9th at 1pm ET.
How to Make Accountability Cool and KPIs Fun Again with Dr. Bruce Lund – May 14th at 2pm ET. Screen Savvy: Mastering Virtual Influence for Lenders with Julie Hansen – May 15th at 2pm ET. Understanding the Personalities of Your Clients and Partners with Rebecca Lorenz – May 16th at 1pm ET. Your Event Playbook to Network and Form Referral Partnerships with Kendra Lee – May 21st at 1pm ET.
Great things are happening around the 2024 Fair Lending Forum, April 29 – May 1 in Charlotte, NC! Asurity is thrilled to announce that Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General, will be joining us! He will share his perspectives on fair lending during a fireside chat with our Founder and CEO, Andy Sandler titled The Role of State Attorney Generals in Fair Lending Enforcement. Other prominent speakers are Bob Broeksmit, President and CEO of MBA; Lindsey Johnson, President and CEO of CBA: Grovetta Gardineer, Sr. Deputy Comptroller for Bank Supervision Policy, OCC; Ben Olson, Senior Associate Director for Consumer Protection & Supervision, FRB; Varda Hussain, Principal Deputy Chief for Fair Lending in the Civil Rights Division, Housing and Civil Enforcement Section, DOJ; and Frank Vespa-Papaleo, Principal Deputy Director of Fair Lending, CFPB. Register at www.fairlendingforum.com.
If you’re in Minnesota on May 1st, 10:00am – 12:00pm and a Loan Originator, are you interested in creating and building strong realtor relationships? If so, register and attend the “Mastering the Realtor Referral Relationship” presented by Steven Ross, Author of Doors Open When You Knock.
Join Northern Michigan Luncheon, Tuesday, May 2, 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM at Silver Spruce Brewing Company, to hear from a panel of VA Loan Experts and they dive into the specifics of this loan type, any changes that are coming on VA loans and much more. They’ll also be discussing the pending NAR settlement, and what changes that brings to VA loans, sales, and associated realtor fees.
Don’t miss this opportunity to connect with industry peers, gain valuable insights, and elevate your mortgage business. Attend the MMBBA Annual Conference on Thursday, May 2, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. in Queenstown.
The Maryland Mortgage Bankers and Brokers Association Annual Conference is scheduled for Thursday, May 2, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. in the picturesque setting of Queenstown, MD. Featuring speaker, Edward Seiler, PhD, Executive Director of the Research Institute for Housing America and Associate VP of Housing Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Edward will provide invaluable insights into the housing market and economic trends.
This year’s OMBA Annual Convention will delve deep into the dynamics of the mortgage industry and explore the current market trends. Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just stepping into the mortgage world, this event on Monday, May 6 – Tuesday, May 7 promises valuable insights to navigate the industry’s landscape.
The AEI Housing Center will host five convenings in the week of May 6 in Denver, Colorado; San Francisco, California; Los Angeles, California; Orange County, California; and San Diego, California. These convenings will share insights on using light-touch density (LTD), also known as middle housing, to craft solutions to America’s growing housing supply crisis. Registration is free. Los Angeles is the only location that will offer a livestream.
Register for NALHFA Annual Conference 2024, May 1-4 in Las Vegas. Experience education and connection at NALHFA 2024 with an Affordable Housing Bus Tour, Women in Finance Luncheon & Roundtable, Speaker Sessions, and Networking Opportunities.
Register for the Maryland Mortgage Bankers and Brokers Association Annual Conference, scheduled for Thursday, May 2nd, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. in the picturesque setting of Queenstown. This year’s conference will delve deep into the dynamics of the mortgage industry and explore the current market trends. Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just stepping into the mortgage world, this event promises valuable insights to navigate the industry’s landscape.
In Birmingham, the MBA of Alabama will host its 38th Annual Convention on May 7 & 8.
Registration is open for ACUMA’s FOCALpoint workshops – Join ACUMA in Nashville May 9-10 or Denver June 11-12! Same amazing topics and content in each location – just pick the best city for you! The two-day subject-intensive workshops take deep dives into critical issues affecting the credit union mortgage lending industry. Sign up today! Register here for ACUMA workshops.
The MBA Georgia (MBAG) Conference is coming on May 12-15 at the One Ocean Resort, 1 Ocean Blvd, Atlantic Beach, Florida! For registration visit here.
The Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (SFHGLP) Servicing Office in St. Louis, MO announced free, in-person training to lending partners, May 13-17 at the Charles F. Prevedel Federal Building. The training will offer multiple sessions to provide technical training on Loss Claims, Loss Mitigation, and Lender Reporting. USDA will not charge a registration fee. Attendees are responsible for all travel costs. USDA will not be blocking hotel rooms. Attendees may search for hotel accommodations near the training facility located at 9700 Page Ave, St. Louis MO 63132.
Capital Markets
A day after Fed Chair Powell threw cold water on expectations for rate cuts this year by admitting progress against inflation has stalled, Treasury and mortgage security prices rallied yesterday, dropping rates some, aided by excellent demand at a $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond reopening. Remember, even “a dead cat bounces.” There is some chatter out there that Fed Chair Powell’s tonal pivot last year is partly to blame for the lack of recent progress against inflation. Futures are now pricing in a maximum of two 25-basis point rate hikes in 2024, a far cry from the nearly 150-basis points of easing that fed fund futures had anticipated at the beginning of the year.
There was no top-tier data of note yesterday, but the Fed did release its April Beige Book, which noted that the economy has expanded at a slight pace since February. “Price increases were modest, on average,” it said. 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reported slight or modest growth while two reported no change. Consumer spending edged up slightly, though discretionary spending was pressured in some Districts. Tourism increased modestly but varied widely across the 12 Districts. Residential construction grew a little while nonresidential construction was flat. Employment rose at a slight pace while prices grew modestly, maintaining the pace seen in the last report.
We also learned that single-family home prices increased 7.4 percent from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, up from the previous quarter’s revised annual growth rate of 6.6 percent, according to Fannie Mae’s latest Home Price Index reading. The national repeat-transaction home price index measures the average, quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the U.S., excluding condos. On a quarterly basis, home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent in Q1 2024, essentially the same as the growth in Q4 2023. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home prices also increased by 1.7 percent in Q1 2024.
Today’s economic calendar began with weekly jobless claims (212k, +1k from the prior week, continuing claims 1.812 million, so the labor market continues to do just fine) and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (15.5, way up!). I did see an interesting report in Bloomberg yesterday that indicated cracks in a U.S. labor market that has been near historic strength for much of the past two years are forming. In five states (CA, CT, NV, NJ, WA), the ratio of jobless people per opening is one or more. Meanwhile Arizona and New York are nearing parity with a rate of 0.9, according to February data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Later today brings March existing home sales and leading indicators, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and (once again) remarks from multiple Fed speakers. It’s also a busy day for the Treasury, which will both announce month-end supply consisting of $69 billion 2-year, $70 billion 5-year, $44 billion 7-year notes, and $32 billion 2-year FRNs and auction $23 billion 5-year TIPS. After the initial jobless claim’s news, we begin the day with Agency MBS prices marginally worse than Wednesday evening, the 10-year yielding 4.61 after closing yesterday at 4.59 percent, and the 2-year is at 4.95.
Employment
“TAYGO INC. presents an enticing new opportunity for a SaaS Sales Representative! This pivotal role is instrumental in propelling the success of TAYGOTM through selling our SaaS solutions to prospective clients. The key focus is comprehending the requirements and challenges of mortgage lenders (as well as mortgage brokers) and adeptly showcasing how our products, WEB-GOTM and RIN-GOTM, can optimize their operations and business performance. You must have a strong understanding of CRM products, their features, and the mortgage industry. You must effectively engage with prospects to understand their needs. You must also carefully monitor existing clients’ activities to identify upsell opportunities. You must have exceptional communication skills for online demos and meetings, cold or warm calls and emails. Your expertise, patience, and ability to build and maintain strong customer relationships will be vital in achieving our sales goals and ensuring customer satisfaction. Please send your resume to us.”
“Citizens has a proven track record of successfully navigating challenging market conditions while our capital, liquidity and funding positions remain strong. Retail loan officers need a diverse product mix, reliable operations, and seasoned leadership to rely on to be able to win. With great pay and generous benefits, along with strong digital tools to help you get the job done, Citizens is looking for talented loan officers in the Northeast, MidAtlantic, Midwest and Florida. Our deep product mix allows loan officers to serve many different customer needs, from affordable loan programs such as HomeReady to a best-in-class one-time close construction-to-permanent product, we have what you need to succeed. Citizens’ recent launch of Freddie Mac’s LPA enhances our vast product journey, driving a more personalized and customer-centric experience. Our specialty programs such as condo/co-op financing, along with an amazing Private Wealth discount value proposition for high net worth banking clients, ensure you have all the tools to win. We know a positive customer experience begins with loan origination but doesn’t end there. Recently the Citizens Mortgage Servicing Team received the prestigious ICE Innovation Award for Best Use of Data to Drive Automation, resulting in a 10 percent increase in our customer satisfaction scores. To learn more about how to join our team contact Carl Minott or visit here.”
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“Housing costs are high across the board, but renting is a more affordable and realistic option for many Americans right now—especially those who have never owned a home and aren’t able to tap into equity from a previous sale,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. To afford a typical starter home, first-time buyers must now … [Read more…]
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.