Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
Hey, I’ve just been featured on CNBC and I want to say hello to all of my new readers. You can read the CNBC article here – I made $40,000 a month from 3 income streams during a 4-month cruise around the world—here’s how If you are a new visitor – welcome to Making Sense…
Hey,
I’ve just been featured on CNBC and I want to say hello to all of my new readers.
You can read the CNBC article here – I made $40,000 a month from 3 income streams during a 4-month cruise around the world—here’s how
If you are a new visitor – welcome to Making Sense of Cents!
I have received many emails about how I was able to afford this trip. I have a free How To Start A Blog course that you can sign up for here. I also talk about this below and how I’ve been able to earn over $5,000,000 blogging over the years.
If you want to read more about my world cruise trip, I recommend reading Around-The-World Cruise With A Kid (25+ Countries In 4 Months!).
Here are some blog posts that you may find helpful and enjoy:
If you have any questions, please leave a comment below or send me an email.
Thanks for stopping by.
-Michelle Schroeder-Gardner
—-
In addition to reading the CNBC article linked above, I also want to talk about how I grew a blog that has earned me over $5,000,000. I know I will get a lot of questions, so I figured it’s best to lay it all out right here 🙂
What started as just a hobby turned into one of the most life-changing things I’ve ever done – that’s starting my blog, and learning how to make money with it.
Since learning how to monetize a blog over 10 years ago, I have now earned over $5,000,000 from my site. This is still hard for me to believe, and I’m the one who’s lived it!
In the beginning, all I was doing was tracking my own personal finance progress as I finished school and started paying off my student loans. Blogging was a very new concept to me at the time – I heard about it from a magazine – and people were just learning how to monetize blogs back in 2011.
Most bloggers started back then with display ads and sponsored posts, but the options have only increased.
Because of all of the new ways to make money blogging, like affiliate income and selling your own products, you can make somewhat passive income as a blogger.
Passive income is my favorite way to make money because it makes blogging even more flexible and something I can do as I work from home, travel, and work whenever I want.
Blogging has changed my life for the better, and I’m now earning thousands of dollars a month doing something I love.
Learning how to monetize a blog takes work and time, but it’s 100% possible to do. I started earning money after just six months of blogging, and I didn’t even set out to make money when I created Making Sense of Cents. Just think of the potential if you start out knowing that making money blogging is possible!
Starting my blog is one of the best things I’ve ever done for my work, personal, and financial life. And, I urge anyone who is interested to start a blog and learn how to monetize it.
How I earned my first income from blogging
Many of my readers have heard this story, but I love sharing it because I started out like many of you, except I had no idea that blogs could make money. When I started Making Sense in August of 2011, I simply wanted a way to keep track of my financial progress and meet others who had similar goals.
As I started getting to know other bloggers in the community, a blogger friend of mine connected me with an advertiser who was willing to pay me $100 for an advertisement.
I couldn’t believe someone would pay me $100 to advertise on my site!
While it wasn’t a lot of money, especially considering the amount of time and work I put towards my blog in those 6 months, it was very motivating to see that something I loved doing could actually make money.
After that first $100, I started doing a lot of research on how to monetize a blog, and my blogging income quickly grew from there.
One year after I started my blog, I was earning around $1,000 a month, and I was making around $10,000 monthly two years after I started Making Sense of Cents.
My income only continued to grow, and I am still earning a healthy income from this website today.
How To Start A Blog FREE Course
If you want to learn how to monetize a blog and you haven’t started your blog, then I recommend starting with my free blogging course How To Start A Blog FREE Course.
Here’s a quick outline of what you will learn in this free course:
Day 1: Reasons you should start a blog
Day 2: How to determine what to blog about
Day 3: How to create your blog – in this lesson, you will learn how to start a blog on WordPress, and my tutorial makes it very easy to start a blog
Day 4: How to monetize a blog – this is where you learn about the many different ways to make money blogging!
Day 5: My tips for earning passive income from your blog
Day 6: How to grow your traffic and followers
Day 7: Miscellaneous blogging tips that will help you be successful
This is delivered directly to your email inbox, and you will learn how to grow a blog from scratch.
Start with a plan for your blog
Sure, you can start on a whim, and that’s kind of what I did, haha.
But, I do think that creating a plan is a good idea if you want to learn how to monetize a blog. This can help you get an organized start, identify your blog’s niche, decide on your blogging goals, find opportunities for blogging income, and more.
It wasn’t until 2015 that I finally created a blogging plan (that’s 4 years after I started!), and my blog income grew significantly after that.
I credit that growth to creating a plan!
Having a plan would have been a huge help in the beginning, and I wish I would have started with one. I probably missed some income opportunities because I had no real plan or direction in the first couple of years.
Since creating a blogging plan, I became more focused on goals and motivated toward improving and building Making Sense of Cents.
Here are some questions that you may want to ask yourself when creating a plan for your blog:
What will you write about on your blog?
How do you want to make money with your blog?
What will you do to reach readers on your blog?
What are your goals for your blog?
Thinking about, researching, and answering these questions will help guide you on your journey and help you decide what to do next.
Write high-quality and engaging blog posts
Your blog’s content is extremely important. This will be what attracts your readers, has them coming back for more, earns you blogging income, and more.
Now, you don’t need to be an expert or need a degree to start talking about a subject, but you do need to be knowledgeable or interested in what you are talking about. And, always be truthful! This will show in your writing and actually help your readers.
To write high-quality content on your blog, here are some tips:
Figure out exactly what it is that you’d like to write about and why you think the content is important. Being passionate about a subject will give you the motivation to write content that people want to read. Just think about it: If you don’t enjoy writing your content, then why should you expect someone else to want to read it?
Ask your audience what they want you to write about. Many of my best ideas come from expanding on reader questions.
Research your blog topics by reading news articles, going to a library, searching for statistics and interesting facts, and more.
If your blog posts are more personal in nature, then dig deep and share your thoughts, and be personable in your writing – your readers want to hear your story!
Write long, helpful content. Sure, some great content may only be a few hundred words, but to be as helpful as possible, long content is usually the best. My content is usually over 2,000 words, and this article is around 5,000. Now, you don’t want to just write a lot of fluff content in order to get more words in – you want to actually be helpful!
Reread your content. I used to read my content 10 times or more before I would publish it. Now, I have an editor who makes sure I’m always publishing high-quality content.
Network, network, network
If you want to learn how to monetize a blog, then networking can be extremely helpful.
Networking can mean:
Making friends with other bloggers
Attending blogging conferences
Sharing content that other bloggers have written
Following other bloggers in your niche on social media
Signing up for other bloggers’ newsletters
Joining blogging groups on Facebook
Some bloggers don’t do any of these things and purely see other bloggers as competition. I don’t believe this is the correct way to approach blogging because you will hold yourself back immensely!
Networking is important because it can help you enjoy blogging (friends are nice to have, right?!), teach you new ideas (such as how to make money blogging or how to grow a blog), make valuable connections, and more.
Keep in mind that networking is even how I earned my very first $100 blogging. My blogging friend connected me with an advertiser, which helped changed my blogging journey.
I have learned a lot about blogging from the blogging community, and the people I’ve connected with have been a tremendous support as I’ve grown my blog.
Be prepared to put in a lot of hard work
Starting a blog is relatively easy. But, growing and learning how to monetize a blog takes a lot of work.
You’ll have to:
Start a blog, design it, create social media accounts, and more
Write high-quality blog posts
Attract an audience of readers
Monetize your blog
Continue learning about blogging
And more
Even when I was just a new blogger and had no plans of making money blogging, I was still spending well over 10 hours a week on Making Sense of Cents.
When I was working my full-time day job and earning an income from my blog, I was working around 40-50 hours a week on my blog on top of my day job!
Now that I blog full-time, my hours vary. Some months I hardly work, and there are other months that I may work 100 hours a week.
It’s not easy, and there’s always something that needs to be done.
But, I absolutely love blogging, which makes the hard work a little less tough.
How to monetize a blog: 4 different ways
There are many different ways you can monetize your blog, including:
Affiliate marketing
Advertisements and sponsorships
Display advertising
Create your own product, such as an ebook, course, physical or online products, and more
You could choose to monetize your blog using all of these methods, or even just one. It’s just a personal decision.
For me, I like to be diversified and monetize in many ways, so I do them all.
Below, I am going to dive a little deeper into each way to make money blogging.
1. Affiliate marketing
Affiliate marketing can be a great way to make money blogging because if there is a product or company that you enjoy, all you have to do is review the product and share a unique affiliate link where your readers can sign up or make a purchase.
In fact, this is my favorite way to monetize a blog. I enjoy it because it can be quite passive – I can create just one blog post and potentially earn an income from it years later. This is because even though a blog post may be older, I am still constantly driving traffic to it and readers are still purchasing through my affiliate links.
Affiliate marketing is a blog monetization method where you share a link to a product or company with your readers in an attempt to make an income from followers purchasing the product through your link.
Here are some quick tips so that you can make affiliate income on your blog:
Use the Pretty Link plugin tocleanupmessy-lookingaffiliatelinks. I use this for nearly all of my affiliate links because something like “makingsenseofcents.com/bluehost” looks much better than the long, crazy-looking links that affiliate programs usually give you.
Provide real reviews. You should always be honest with your reviews. If there is something you don’t like about a product, either don’t review the product at all or mention the negatives in your review.
Ask for a commission increase. If you are doing well with a particular affiliate program, ask to increase your commissions.
Build a relationship with your affiliate manager. Your affiliate manager can supply your readers with valuable coupons, commission increases, bonuses, and more.
Write tutorials. Readers want to know how they can use a product. Showing them how to use it, how it can benefit them, and more are all very helpful.
Don’t go overboard. There is no need to include an affiliate link 1,000 times in a blog post. Include them at the beginning, middle, and end, and readers will notice it. Perhaps bold it or find another way for it to stand out as well.
You can learn more about affiliate marketing strategies in my course Making Sense of Affiliate Marketing.
2. Advertisements and sponsorships
Advertising on a blog is one of the first ways that bloggers learn how to monetize a blog. In fact, it’s exactly how I started!
This form of blogging income is when you directly partner with a company and advertise for them on your website or social media accounts.
You may be writing a review for them, a tutorial, talking about their product or company, taking pictures, and so on.
If you want to learn how to increase your advertising-income, I recommend taking my Making Sense of Sponsored Posts course.
3. Display advertising
Display advertising is one of the easiest ways to make money blogging, but it most likely won’t earn you the most, especially in the beginning.
I’m sure you’ve seen display ads before. They may be on the sidebar, at the top of a post, within a blog post, and so on.
The ads are automatically added when you join an advertising network, and you do not need to manually add these ads to your blog.
Your display advertising income increases or decreases almost entirely based on your page views, and once you place the advertisement, there’s no direct work to be done.
If you want to learn how to monetize a blog through display advertising, then some popular networks include Adsense, MediaVine, and AdThrive.
Personally, I use AdThrive for my display advertising network. I don’t have many display advertisements on my blog, but it is easy income.
4. Sell your own products
Another popular way to monetize a blog is to create a sell your own products.
This could be an online product, something that you ship, and so on, such as:
An online course
A coaching program
An eBook
Printables
Memberships
Clothing, candles, artwork, hard copy books, and anything else you can think of
And the list goes on and on. I have seen bloggers be very successful in selling all kinds of things on their blogs.
What’s great about selling your own product is that you are in complete control of what you are selling, and your income is virtually unlimited in many cases.
I launched my first product about 5 years after I created Making Sense of Cents, which was a blogging course called Making Sense of Affiliate Marketing. I regret not creating something sooner because this has been an excellent source of income and has helped many people along the way.
Have an email list
If you really want to learn how to monetize a blog, I recommend that you start an email list from the very beginning.
I waited several years to start my email list, and that was a huge mistake!
Here’s why you need an email list right away:
Your newsletter is YOURS. Unlike social media sites, your newsletter and email subscribers are all yours, and you have their undivided attention. You don’t have to worry about algorithms not displaying your content to readers, and this is because they are your email subscribers. You aren’t fighting with anyone else to have them see your content.
The money is in your email list. I believe that email newsletters are the best way to promote an affiliate product. Your email subscribers signed up to hear what YOU have to write about, so you clearly have their full attention. Your email list, over any other promotional strategy, will almost always lead to more income and sales.
Your email subscribers are loyal to you. If someone is allowing you to show up in their inbox whenever you want, then they probably trust what you have to say and enjoy listening to you. This is a great way to grow an audience and a loyal one at that.
Email is a great way to deliver other forms of content. With Convertkit, I am able to easily create free email courses that are automatically sent to my subscribers. Once a reader signs up, Convertkit sends out all the information they need in whatever time frame I choose to deliver the content.
Attract readers
As a new blogger, you’ll want to find ways to attract a readership to your blog and your article.
No, you don’t need millions and millions of page views to earn a good living from blogging. In fact, I know some bloggers who receive 1,000,000 page views yet make less money than those with 100,000 monthly page views.
Every website is different, but once you learn what your audience wants, you can start to really make money blogging, regardless of how many page views you receive.
Having a successful blog is all about having a loyal audience and helping them with your content.
Even with all of that being said, if you want to learn how to monetize a blog, learning how to improve your traffic is valuable. The more loyal and engaged followers you have, the more money you may be able to make through your blog.
There are many ways to grow your readership, such as:
Write high-quality articles. Your blog posts should always be high-quality and helpful, and it means readers will want to come back for more.
Find social media sites to be active on. There are many social media platforms you can be active on, such as Pinterest, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, Youtube, and others.
Regularly share new posts. For most blogs, you should publish content at least once a week. Readers may forget about you if you go for weeks or months at a time without a blog post.
Guest post. Guest posting is a great way to reach a new audience, as it can bring new readers to your blog who will potentially subscribe to it.
Make sure it’s easy to share your content. I love sharing posts on social media. However, it gets frustrating when some blogs make it more difficult than it needs to be. You should always make sure it’s easy for readers to share your content, which means your social media icons should be easy to find, all of the info input and ready for sharing (title, link, and your username tagged), and so on. Also, you should make sure that when someone clicks on one of your sharing icons the title isn’t in CAPS (I’ve seen this too many times!).
Write better titles. The title of your post can either bring readers to you or deter them from clicking over. A great free tool to write better headlines is CoSchedule’s Headline tool.
Apply SEO strategies. SEO (search engine optimization) is not something I can teach in this small section, but I go over it below in another section.
Have a clean and user-friendly blog design. If you want more page views, you should make it as easy as possible for readers to navigate your blog. It should be easy for readers to find your blog homepage, search bar, blog posts, and so on.
Now, I also want to talk about helpful resources, courses, and more that can help you to learn how to grow your page views on your blog.
Below are some of my favorite blogging resources to help you improve your traffic:
Grow through SEO
SEO (search engine optimization) is how you get organic search traffic to your blog.
When you search a phrase on Google, you’ll see a bunch of different websites as the results. This is the result of these websites applying SEO strategies to their blog.
This is a great way for readers to find your blog, and SEO is important to pay attention to as you learn how to monetize a blog!
Below are some of my favorite SEO resources:
Stupid Simple SEO: This is my favorite overall SEO course, and one of the most popular for bloggers. I highly recommend taking it. I have gone through the whole course, and I constantly refer back to it.
Easy On-Page SEO: This is an easy-to-follow approach to learning on-page SEO so your articles can rank on Google. I have read this ebook twice, and it is super helpful.
Easy Backlinks for SEO: This ebook will show you 31 different ways to build backlinks, which are needed for SEO.
How To Get 50,000 Pageviews per Month With Keyword Research: This ebook shares the steps for keyword research so that you can get SEO traffic to your website.
Common questions about how to monetize a blog
Below, I’m going to answer some questions I’ve received about how to start a blog such as:
How many views do you need to monetize a blog?
How do beginner bloggers make money?
Why do bloggers fail?
How many posts should I have before I launch my blog?
How many times a week should I post on my blog?
How many views do you need to monetize a blog?
The amount of page views needed to make money blogging varies, and there is no magic number that you should be aiming for.
This is because it depends on so many factors, such as how you will monetize your blog, your niche, the number of email subscribers you have, the quality of your website, and more.
You may see success with 10,000 page views a month, or you may see success with over 100,000 page views a month. It simply depends on the factors above.
How do beginner bloggers make money?
Beginner bloggers can make money in many different ways, such as display advertising, affiliate marketing, creating their own products, and sponsorships.
You can start any of these right from the very beginning.
Display advertising is usually the easiest way to begin monetizing a blog, but the payoff is not very high, especially in the beginning when your page views are not high.
How many posts should I have before I launch my blog?
I recommend just launching your blog as soon as you have one blog post and a design. Building a huge backlog of blog posts isn’t usually needed, and it can prevent you from ever getting started!
How many times a week should I post on my blog?
The more blog posts you have, then the more traffic you may get. That’s because it’s more opportunities to show up in Google searches or share your posts on social media.
I recommend publishing a new blog post at least once a week. Anything less isn’t advised.
Publishing blog posts consistently is smart because readers know to expect regular content from you.
Why do bloggers fail?
Bloggers fail for many different reasons. These reasons may include:
Giving up too soon. It takes time to make money blogging, and sadly, many people give up just a few months into starting a blog.
Not publishing consistently. I recommend publishing content at least once a week, as described in the previous section. Some new bloggers may go months without publishing, and this will take them much longer to make money blogging as they are simply not dedicating enough time to their blog.
Not spending enough time learning about blogging. Blogging is not as easy as you may think. There is a lot to learn in order to make it work. You may need to learn about how to grow your blog’s traffic, how to monetize a blog, how to write high-quality content, and more.
Not having your own domain and self-hosting. If you want to make money blogging, I highly recommend owning your domain name and being self-hosted. The longer you put this easy step off, the longer it will most likely take for you to make money blogging. You can learn more at How To Start a WordPress Blog.
And much more. Blogging is like any business – there are things to learn, things to improve on, and more.
How do I start a blog?
If you have any other questions related to starting a blog, I recommend checking out What Is A Blog, How Do Blogs Make Money, & More. In this article, I answer more questions related to blogging such as:
How do I come up with a blog name?
What blogs make the most money?
How do you design a blog?
How many views do you need to make money blogging?
How many blog posts should I have before launching?
Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. However, 2023 tested my model as the inventory growth rate on a week-to-week basis was slow, even when rates headed toward 8%. It’s a simple model: inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly with rates over 7.25%. After failing time and time again, we finally got there this week with 16,582.
Weekly inventory change (April 12-19): Inventory rose from 526,462 to 543,044
The same week last year (April 14-21), Inventory rose from 406,600 to 414,701
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,060,669
New listings data
Now that inventory is growing more closely with what I am looking for, new listing data must keep its year-over-year growth trend. Last year, when mortgage rates headed toward 8%, we saw no negative hit to the latest listings data, meaning it didn’t take a new leg lower. So, with higher rates now and some growth year over year, I hope we keep the momentum going. We need this to happen to get balance in housing.
Here’s what new listings look like for last week over the last several years:
2024: 68,769
2023: 59,269
2022: 59,803
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
As mortgage rates rise with inventory, the price-cut percentage should increase unless demand keeps up with inventory growth. Last week, we saw a slight decline in the price cuts.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.4%
2022: 18.7%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had a lot of headline drama last week, between Powell talking about taking rate cuts off the table, escalating war in the Middle East, and economic data beating estimates. This sent the 10-year yield and mortgage rates higher. I talked about this on the HousingWire Daily podcast, discussing my central theme that for the Fed to pivot, it’s labor over Inflation.
When the labor market breaks, the Fed will pivot; we aren’t there just yet. As the chart below shows, many people were looking at the growth rate of inflation falling as the main driver for the Fed, but that isn’t working in this cycle.
One positive story about mortgage rates in 2024 is that the spreads are improving, and that has kept a lid on the damage from higher yields. The spreads are acting a bit better than I thought they would, I had assumed we would need to get closer to rate cuts before they would behave this way. However, this bodes well for the future because if the spreads get back to normal and the 10-year yield falls with it, we can easily get to the low 6s range for mortgage rates and potentially below 6%.
Purchase application data
One surprising data point from last week was that purchase application data showed positive growth, and the year-over-year decline was much less.
However, the only reason this happened is that the week before, the Easter holiday negatively impacted the data, which made this week’s growth data need a lot of context. With weekly housing data, holiday activity can move negative and positive, but after two weeks, it gets back on trend. So, take last week’s growth with a grain of salt.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 11 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had five positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
The week ahead: Housing and inflation
We have new home sales and pending home sales coming up this week, and we will see how much the recent rate increase has impacted the data line. Also, the Fed’s main inflation report, the PCE inflation data, will be released on Friday, so it should be a wild day. Ever since the 10-year yield broke it’s critical support line, the bond market and mortgage rates have been acting up, so this inflation report will be key as the Fed will factor in how much we need mortgage rates to stay higher for longer in this economic expansion.
Daily average mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since last November after last week’s disappointing inflation report
SEATTLE, April 18, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–(NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median U.S. home-sale price increased 5% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 14, bringing it to $380,250—just $3,095 shy of June 2022’s all-time high. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The average daily mortgage rate this week surpassed 7.4%, the highest level since last November, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and the Fed’s confirmation that interest-rate cuts will be delayed. The combination of high mortgage rates and prices have brought homebuyers’ median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775, up 11% year over year.
There are signals that buyers are out there touring homes despite rising rates. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 5% week over week, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is near its highest level in seven months. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead, said some house hunters are hoping to buy now because they’re concerned rates could rise more, and others have grown accustomed to elevated rates and pushed down their home-price budget accordingly.
“Home sales are slower than usual, but there are still people buying and selling because if not now, when?” said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas. “I’ve had a few prospective buyers touring homes for the last several years, since mortgage rates started going up, and they wish they would have bought last year because prices and rates are even higher now. My advice to them: If you can afford to and you find a house you love, buy now. There’s no guarantee that rates will come down soon.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
7.41% (April 17)
Up from 7% one month earlier; highest level since November 2023
Increased 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending April 12)
Down 10%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)
Up 8% from a month earlier (as of week ending April 14)
Down 11%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity
Up 33% from the start of the year (as of April 14)
At this time last year, it was up 23% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of April 14)
Down 17%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$380,250
4.7%
Median asking price
$413,225
6.4%
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022; all-time high
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,775 at a 6.88% mortgage rate
10.6%
All-time high
Pending sales
86,086
-2.3%
New listings
93,332
10.8%
Active listings
832,748
9.6%
Months of supply
3.3 months
+0.4 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks
42.6%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
35
-1 day
Share of homes sold above list price
29.2%
Essentially unchanged
Share of homes with a price drop
5.9%
+1.6 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio
99.2%
+0.2 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (24.8%)
Providence, RI (14.6%)
Nassau County, NY (14.3%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.5%)
New Brunswick, NJ (13.1%)
San Antonio, TX (-1%)
Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (25.6%)
San Francisco (11.2%)
Oakland, CA (7.1%)
Columbus, OH (6.7%)
Seattle (6.4%)
Nassau County, NY (-14.9%)
Atlanta (-13.6%)
Houston (-11.6%)
Riverside, CA (-10.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10%)
Increased in 14 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (46.6%)
Sacramento, CA (27.6%)
Phoenix (27.4%)
Jacksonville, FL (27.2%)
Dallas (22.9%)
Newark, NJ (-12.4%)
Providence, RI (-6.3%)
Milwaukee (-4.6%)
Chicago (-4.5%)
Detroit (-3.1%)
Declined in 9 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-mortgage-rates-increase
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email [email protected]. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240418348073/en/
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The Upshot
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A Huge Number of Homeowners Have Mortgage Rates Too Good to Give Up
On a scale not seen in decades, many Americans are stuck in homes they would rather leave.
949
Emily Badger and
April 15, 2024
Something deeply unusual has happened in the American housing market over the last two years, as mortgage rates have risen to around 7 percent.
Rates that high are not, by themselves, historically remarkable. The trouble is that the average American household with a mortgage is sitting on a fixed rate that’s a whopping three points lower.
Rates on new home loans now far surpass rates locked in by Americans with existing
mortgages.
2%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2023
Average fixed mortgage rates
8%
Existing
mortgages
6%
3.2-
point
gap
Rates on
new loans
4%
Rates on new home loans now far surpass rates locked in by Americans with existing
mortgages.
2%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2023
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency analysis. Note: New loan figures show the predicted rate that existing mortgage holders could get on the same mortgages at new market conditions.
The gap that has jumped open between these two lines has created a nationwide lock-in effect — paralyzing people in homes they may wish to leave — on a scale not seen in decades. For homeowners not looking to move anytime soon, the low rates they secured during the pandemic will benefit them for years to come. But for many others, those rates have become a complication, disrupting both household decisions and the housing market as a whole.
new research from economists at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, this lock-in effect is responsible for about 1.3 million fewer home sales in America during the run-up in rates from the spring of 2022 through the end of 2023. That’s a startling number in a nation where around five million homes sell annually in more normal times — most of those to people who already own.
These locked-in households haven’t relocated for better jobs or higher pay, and haven’t been able to downsize or acquire more space. They also haven’t opened up homes for first-time buyers. And that’s driven up prices and gummed up the market.
Share of existing mortgages with rates below or above new market rates Percentage point difference from rates on new mortgages BELOW
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
ABOVE
Federal Housing Finance Agency analysis. Note: Data covers all fixed-rate mortgages in the U.S.
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There is nothing good to report on mortgage rates from last week. The chart below shows that we broke the critical technical level on the 10-year yield (marked with a red line). The CPI data, which the Federal Reserve doesn’t track for its 2% target, came in 0.1% hotter than estimates, but that was good enough to take one mortgage rate cut off the table for now. I talked about this last week on the HousingWire Daily podcast.
Now that this technical level has been broken, 2024 is going to be a lot more interesting, something I discussed in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Now, with the specter of a wider war in the Middle East as Iran launches strikes against Israel, what will the bond market do? Some will say that bonds rallied ahead of the pending war news on Friday, but we will get a better answer Sunday night with bond market trading.
One positive thing for mortgage rates is that spreads between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year yield are improving. I believe these spreads became one of the bigger mortgage stories, as the banking crisis sent the spreads to new cycle highs. This data line is improving and for now, it mitigates the damage done by the higher 10-year yield.
Of course, if the spreads get better from here and bond yields fall again, then mortgage rates can act much better on the downside. This is something to watch for in the future.
Things are hapenning fast with mortgage rates, which is why I update HousingWire’s Mortgage Rate Center page with analysis every weekday morning — looking at how the bond market reacts to economic data or an event that can move rates.
Weekly housing inventory data
Usually, I would jump for joy at last week’s inventory growth. However, last week’s numbers don’t get a passing grade: The rebound impact of Easter boosted last week’s inventory data, just like it caused the inventory data to decline in the previous week.
One item to note for this year is the year-over-year comparisons on active inventory. Inventory bottomed out on April 14 last year, which was the longest time it took for the housing market to find a seasonal bottom ever. From now to the end of the year, the easy comps to show inventory growth are over. It will get more challenging to show more growth unless inventory starts to pick up, especially toward the end of 2024. However, with higher mortgage rates, we should see more inventory growth.
Weekly inventory change (April 5-12): Inventory rose from 512,930 to 526,462
The same week last year (April 7-14): Inventory fell from 411,577 to 406,600
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,042,221
New listings data
It’s the same story with the new listing data; we got a nice snap-back from Easter. I am a big fan of the inventory growing year over year based on new listing data, and this is a big plus for the housing market. I had anticipated more growth, but as long as we are showing some growth this year, I will take that as a victory. Last year, it was savagely unhealthy that new listings data was trending at the lowest recorded levels.
2024: 66,786
2023: 48,556
2022: 67,229
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
This price-cut data line is critical to track now as inventory growth picks up for spring and mortgage rates have increased since the start of the year. Higher mortgage rates mean higher inventory growth and more price cuts, which keeps the model simple.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32.1%
2023: 29.8%
2022: 18.8%
Purchase application data
Purchase applications dropped last week, down 5% week to week, but they showed a significant 23% decline year over year. The Easter holiday year-over-year comps have played a bit into this data line. We saw an excellent rebound in our pending contracts data last week and the inventory growth data from week to week. Now that Easter is out of the mix, we can move ahead on the week-to-week and year-over-year data with some more clarity.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 10 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
The week ahead: War, retail sales and housing data
Do mortgage rates move with war news? Yes, they often do. Some speculate that in a war, money goes into the bond market as a flight to safety, pushing rates lower. However, war can also lead to higher inflation and higher mortgage rates. I discussed the economics of conflicts tied to mortgage rates as a premise for double-digit mortgage rates on this recent HousingWire Daily podcast.
This week, we will see how the bond and stock markets react to the news from the Middle East. We will also get retail sales numbers, which have been holding up better than most had anticipated for some time now. Also, we’ll get a ton of housing data, including the builders confidence, housing starts and existing home sales.
A central counterparty clearing house (CCP), or Central Counterparty, is a financial institution that facilitates trading activities in European equity and derivative markets. Regional banks typically operate CCPs which are an important part of the international financial system.
CCPs maintain stability and efficiency across financial markets and reduce risks including counterparty, default, and market risks. In the United States, CCPs are called Derivatives Clearing Organizations (DCO) and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Defining Central Counterparty Clearing Houses
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) defines a CCP as “a clearing house that interposes itself between counterparties to contracts traded in one or more financial markets, becoming the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer and thereby ensuring the future performance of open contracts.” The Eurex is a well known CCP.
Central Counterparty Clearing Houses act as intermediaries between buyers and sellers in financial transactions. They handle clearing and settlements in various types of securities and derivatives transactions to reduce credit risk in the markets. Clearinghouses have existed for more than a century, and act as a way to reduce the risk of OTC derivative transactions.
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How Central Counterparty Clearing Houses Work
Central Counterparty Clearing Houses guarantee trade terms for buyers and sellers. They help reduce risk for investors by taking on credit risk involved in transactions, so even if a buyer or seller defaults on a transaction the other party doesn’t have as much loss as they might have without the CCP.
When buyers and sellers enter into transactions, they each deposit money with the CCP to cover the amount of the transaction. All CCP users must have a margin account.
In a process called “novation,” the CCP enters into two different contracts, one with the buyer and one with the seller. This provides a guarantee to the other party that if one side doesn’t follow through with the agreement the other side will still receive payment. CCPs typically use margin calls to settle trades if one party does not have the funds in their account.
If the trade falls through, the CCP completes the trade at the current market price. CCPs are for-profit businesses that generate revenue from their members and their transactions. They also work with parent exchanges that require them to remain profitable. Just like other types of businesses, CCPs each operate differently and have different business strategies to attract customers and earn revenue.
For instance, there are different types of derivative products that a CCP might choose to offer. One common business model for CCPs is to cross-margin products in a single netting pool. Parent exchanges place obligations on CCPs, so they need to earn enough revenue to meet those.
The specific financial products offered by a CCP, as well as its risk level, fee structure, and other features lead to different types of members, organizational structure, regulations, and rules for margin balances.
CCPs continue to evolve, offer new products, and become more sophisticated over time. Regulations are also evolving for CCPs which may change how they operate in the future.
Uses of a Central Counterparty Clearing House
CCPs maintain the anonymity of investors’ identities to protect their privacy. They also maintain the privacy of trading firms from buyers and sellers by using electronic order books and protect brokerage firms from the risk of buyers and sellers defaulting on their end of options such as calls or puts.
Another use of CCPs is to lower the number of transactions settled in order to move funds efficiently between investors.
💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.
CCP Members
Financial institutions that want to clear trades through a central counterparty can become members of a particular CCP. Membership allows them to reduce credit risk for their customers and themselves. There are CCPs for different types of financial transactions, so financial institutions can choose the appropriate CCP to apply to for their needs.
CCPs want members that have a significant transaction volume, are creditworthy, and have a trading operation that works efficiently with the system run by the CCP. CCPs also want members to contribute funds to their default fund and secure collateral for their transactions. Each CCP has somewhat different criteria and requirements for membership, and membership information is not always publicly available.
Pros and Cons of CCPs
There are benefits and drawbacks to CCPs. Here are a few important ones to understand:
Pros
CCPs benefit investors in the following ways:
• Reduce counterparty risk
• Maintain stability in financial markets
• Increase efficiency of transactions
• Maintains privacy of customers
Cons
There are also some drawbacks to CCPs for investors, including the following:
• Participation fees
• May not be able to process non-standard transactions
• Some CCPs may not have adequate scale
CCPs and Blockchain
CCPs are now being used with blockchain technology, made popular in cryptocurrency markets, to further reduce risk and costs. An international group of clearing houses launched the Post Trade Distributed Ledger Group launched in 2015. The group studies ways to use blockchain technology for transactions.
Since its formation, the group has expanded to include about 40 global financial institutions collaborating to bring CCPs together with blockchain. The goal of using blockchain technology with CCPs is to reduce margin requirements and risk, reduce operational costs, improve regulatory oversight, and increase the efficiency of trade settlements. Ideally blockchain can help support better settlements, clearing processes, and reporting.
Decentralized exchanges already operate similarly to CCPs as a third party that handles transactions.
The Takeaway
Central counterparty clearing houses help reduce the risk of trading derivatives and securities. They became more popular after the financial crisis as a way for investors to minimize counterparty risk.
While CCPs may help maintain stability in financial markets and increase efficiency, they may also involve participation fees, or may not be able to process non-standard transactions. Understanding the ins and outs of CCPs can be helpful to investors as they learn to navigate the markets.
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FAQ
What is the difference between a clearing house and a central counterparty?
While a CCP acts as a clearing house for transactions, it has an additional step involved before doing so. The two parties involved in a transaction agree upon transaction terms, then the CCP must agree to the terms before they clear the transaction.
What is the CCP margin?
CCPs require customers to make collateral deposits, known as margin deposits, before entering into transactions. This provides them with funds they can use to guarantee trades in the event that one party defaults on an agreement. The initial margin required depends on the customer, the type of financial product, and the particular trade agreement.
Does central clearing reduce counterparty risk?
Central clearing reduces counterparty risk by guaranteeing trades for buyers and sellers. They take on the credit risk involved in transactions by becoming the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer.
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To paraphrase Mark Twain, history may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. The U.S. mortgage industry recently had to remind itself of this fact when a CNN analysis found that the nation’s largest credit union, Navy Federal, has the widest disparity in mortgage approval rates between white and black borrowers of any major lender. The report, released back in December, noted that Navy Federal Credit Union approved more than 75% of white borrowers who applied for a new conventional home purchase mortgage in 2022 vs. less than 50% of black borrowers.
As ever, redlining — the intentional, systematic effort by American banks and government to refuse mortgages to African Americans and segregate U.S. cities — looms in the background. The practice wasn’t outlawed until 1968, and ongoing research at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health finds that redlining affects non-white communities to this day in the form of air pollution, reproductive health disorders, and fewer urban amenities.
Is the mortgage industry offering fair access to loans?
The report suggests that the mortgage industry may be neglecting its duty to offer all applicants fair access to loans. With civil rights bills like the Fair Housing Act (FHAct) and Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) now the law of the land, most lenders will note that they rely on supposedly objective borrower screening algorithms to make lending decisions. But the results tell a different story.
The Federal Reserve’s Consumer Compliance Handbook observes that “evidence of discriminatory intent is not necessary to establish that a lender’s adoption or implementation of a policy or practice is in violation of the FHAct or ECOA.” If a lender has a supposedly neutral policy that results in them denying loans to people of a protected class (i.e., racial, religious, or gender minority) at a greater rate, that policy may constitute lending discrimination. To prove the policy is not discriminatory, the lender must show that the policy is justified by “business necessity.”
Meanwhile, repeated, heavily publicized evidence has dispelled the myth that algorithms are inherently neutral actors. Those in the data analytics field have long been aware that algorithms can not only encode but amplify bias. For example, Amazon had to stop testing an automated hiring algorithm in 2015 when it became obvious that the algorithm was systematically discriminating against women for technical jobs. Trained on the resumes of existing employees, most of whom were male, the algorithm reproduced that same bias when evaluating candidates.
Algorithmic bias in mortgage lending is just another example of the phenomenon that data analysts call “garbage in, garbage out.” Institutions that feed their lending algorithm data that encodes structural racism should not be surprised when the ending algorithm results in a disparate impact.
One of the biggest offenders in algorithmic bias is the almighty credit score.
Lenders rapidly expanded their use of computerized credit scores in the 1970s and 80s, ironically, to protect themselves against discrimination lawsuits. Experts point out that the supposedly objective credit scoring system still bakes in intentional discrimination from decades ago. Leaning too heavily on credit scores actually biases lenders against a large swath of potential homebuyers, including foreign buyers, younger buyers, and buyers from families with low financial literacy, who often lack robust U.S. credit histories.
To avoid discriminating against these groups, lenders need to scrap the credit score and start looking at cashflow. Cashflow underwriting is a transparent, data-driven approach that looks at an individual’s core financial behavior metrics. The main factors that cashflow underwriting looks at are the applicant’s balances, cashflow trends, and their ratio of discretionary-to-core spending. Cashflow underwriting puts income verification where it belongs: at the front of the process. By looking at an applicant’s behavioral metrics based on real-time financials from their bank data, cashflow underwriting is blind to racial and age discrimination. People qualify based on their ability to pay, not their placement in some opaque scoring system.
Cashflow underwriting also addresses another problem with traditional screening approaches, which is the overreliance on paystubs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 10% of Americans are self-employed. With the growth of the gig and sharing economies, as well as the rise of social media influencers, an increasing number of Americans are getting their income from nontraditional sources. A cashflow-first approach acknowledges applicant income from all sources, based on their bank deposit history, rather than just payroll alone, making it easier for applicants to demonstrate their ability to pay.
With today’s artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning technologies, lenders can make the switch to cashflow underwriting a lot more easily than they think. Innovative, AI-powered verification algorithms on the market right now can evaluate an applicant’s income, assets, employment history, and cashflow without invading anyone’s privacy. The applicant’s race, creed, sexual or gender orientation, current neighborhood, or place of origin never enters the picture.
Navy Federal may have received the bulk of the bad press this time around, but these problems — overreliance on credit scores, outdated expectations about employment — are industry wide. To avoid becoming the next Navy Federal, lenders must evaluate the whole picture. Following a cashflow underwriting approach and backed by AI, lenders can make safe bets, free from prejudice or the appearance of bias, to help people attain home ownership.
Tim Ray is co-founder and CEO of VeriFast, an identity and financial verification platform that reduces underwriting and costs while eliminating fraud. A serial entrepreneur and angel investor, Tim is an influential voice in the real estate and property management sectors.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
To contact the authors of this story: Tim Ray at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tracey Velt at [email protected]
Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
The same week last year (March 30-April 7): Inventory rose from 410,734 to 411,577
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,021,567
New listings data
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
2024: 54,769
2023: 55,008
2022: 63,374
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.9%
2022: 17.6%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
Week ahead: Inflation week!
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
100k salary is when you feel like you have arrived in your career. You know living on this amount of income would be simple. But, is making $100000 doable in today’s high inflation world?
When you get a job and you are making about $28 an hour, making over $100,000 a year seems like it would provide amazing opportunities for you. Right?
The median household income is $68,703 in 2019 and increased by 6.8% from the previous year (source). Think of it as a bell curve with $68K at the top; median means half of the population makes less than that and half makes more money.
The average income in the U.S. is $48,672 for a 40-hour workweek; that is an increase of 4% from the previous year (source). That means if you take everyone’s income and divide the money out evenly between all of the people.
Obviously, $100k is well above the average and median incomes; yet, most people feel like they can barely make ends meet with this much higher than average salary.
But, the question remains can you truly live off 100,000 per year in today’s society. The question you want to ask all of your friends is $100000 per year a good salary.
In this post, we are going to dive into everything that you need to know about a $100000 salary including hourly pay and a sample budget on how to spend and save your money.
These key facts will help you with money management and learn how much per hour $100k is as well as what you make per month, weekly, and biweekly.
Just like with any paycheck, it seems like money quickly goes out of your account to cover all of your bills and expenses, and you are left with a very small amount remaining. You may be disappointed that you were not able to reach your financial goals and you are left wondering…
Can I make a living on this salary?
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$100000 a year is How Much an Hour?
When jumping from an hourly job to a salary for the first time, it is helpful to know how much is 100k a year hourly. That way you can decide whether or not the job is worthwhile for you.
For our calculations to figure out how much is 100K salary hourly, we used the average five working days of 40 hours a week.
Let’s breakdown how that 100000 salary to hourly number is calculated.
Typically, the average work week is 40 hours and you can work 52 weeks a year. Take 40 hours times 52 weeks and that equals 2,080 working hours. Then, divide the yearly salary of $100000 by 2,080 working hours and the result is $48.08 per hour.
100000 salary / 2080 hours = $48.08 per hour
$100000 a year is $48.08 per hour
This is just above $45 an hour.
That number is the gross hourly income before taxes, insurance, 401K or anything else is taken out. Net income is how much you deposit into your bank account.
You must check with your employer on how they plan to pay you. For those on salary, typically companies pay on a monthly, semi-monthly, biweekly, or weekly basis.
Just an interesting note… if you were to increase your annual salary by $5K or start a side hustle making $5k a year, it would increase your hourly wage by $2.40 per hour.
To break it down – 105k a year is how much an hour = $50.48
That isn’t a huge amount of money, but every dollar adds up to over $50 an hour.
How Much is $100K salary Per Month?
On average, the monthly amount would be $8,333.
Annual Salary of $100,000 ÷ 12 months = $8,333 per month
This is how much you make a month if you get paid 100000 a year.
$100k a year is how much a week?
This is a great number to know! How much do I make each week? When I roll out of bed and do my job of a $100k salary a year, how much can I expect to make at the end of the week for my effort?
Once again, the assumption is 40 hours worked.
Annual Salary of$100000/52 weeks = $1,923 per week.
$100000 a year is how much biweekly?
For this calculation, take the average weekly pay of $1,923 and double it.
This depends on how many hours you work in a day. For this example, we are going to use an eight hour work day.
8 hours x 52 weeks = 260 working days
Annual Salary of$100000 / 260 working days = $384 per day
If you work a 10 hour day on 208 days throughout the year, you make $480 per day.
$100000 Salary is…
$100000 – Full Time
Total Income
Yearly (52 weeks)
$100,000
Monthly
$8,333
Weekly (40 Hours)
$1,923
Bi-Weekly (80 Hours)
$3,846
Daily Wage (8 Hours)
$384
Daily Wage (10 Hours)
$480
Hourly Wage
$48.08
Net Estimated Monthly Income
$6,362
Net Estimated Hourly Income
$36.71
**These are assumptions based on simple scenarios.
Learn how much house can I afford with 100k salary.
100k A Year Is How Much An Hour After Taxes
Income taxes is one of the biggest culprits of reducing your take-home pay as well as FICA and Social Security. This is a true fact across the board with an all salary range up to $142,800.
When you start getting into a higher salary range, the more you make, the more money that you have to pay in taxes.
Every single tax situation is different.
On the basic level, let’s assume a 12% federal tax rate and 4% state rate. Plus a percentage is taken out for Social Security and Medicare (FICA) of 7.65%.
So, how much an hour is 100000 a year after taxes?
Gross Annual Salary: $100,000
Federal Taxes of 12%: $12,000
State Taxes of 4%: $4,000
Social Security and Medicare of 7.65%: $6,382
$100k Per Year After Taxes is $76,350.
This would be your net annual salary after taxes.
To turn that back into an hourly wage, the assumption is working 2,080 hours.
$76,350 ÷ 2,080 hours = $36.71 per hour
After estimated taxes and FICA, you are netting $76350 per year, which is a whopping $23,650 per year less than what you expect.
***This is a very high-level example and can vary greatly depending on your personal situation and potential deductions. Therefore, here is a great tool to help you figure out how much your net paycheck would be.***
In addition, if you live in a heavily taxed state like California or New York, then you have to pay way more money than somebody that lives in a no tax state like Texas or Florida. This is the debate of HCOL vs LCOL.
Thus, your yearly gross $100000 income can range from $68,350 to $80,350 depending on your state income taxes.
That is why it is important to realize the impact income taxes can have on your take home pay. It is one of those things that you should acknowledge and obviously you need to pay taxes. But, it can also put a huge dent in your ability to live the lifestyle you want on a $100,000 income.
100k salary lifestyle
Every person reading this post has a different upbringing and a different belief system about money. Therefore, what would be a lavish lifestyle to one person, maybe a frugal lifestyle to another person. And there’s no wrong or right, it is what works best for you.
One of the biggest factors to consider is your cost of living.
In another post, we detailed the differences of living in an HCOL vs LCOL vs MCOL area. When you live in big cities, trying to maintain your lifestyle of $100,000 a year is going to be much more difficult because your basic expenses, housing, transportation, food, and clothing are going to be much more expensive than you would find in a lower cost area.
To stretch your dollar further in the high cost of living area, you would have to probably live a very frugal lifestyle and prioritize where you want to spend money and where you do not. Whereas, if you live in a low cost of living area, you can live a much more lavish lifestyle because the cost of living is less. Thus, you have more fun spending left in your account each month.
As we noted earlier in the post, $100,000 a year is well above the median income of $40000 that you would find in the United States. Thus, you are able to live an upper-class lifestyle here in America.
What a $100,000 lifestyle will buy you:
If you are debt free and utilize smart money management skills, then you are able to enjoy the lifestyle you want.
Saving at least $10000 in a year.
You are able to afford a home in a great neighborhood in MCOL city and probably HCOL area.
You should be able easily meeting your expenses each and every month.
Saving at least 20% of your income each month.
Working to increase your savings percentage every year.
Able to afford vacations on a fairly regular basis; of course by using your vacation fund.
When A $100,000 Salary Will Hold you Back:
However, if you are riddled with debt or unable to break the paycheck to paycheck cycle, then living off of 100k a year is going to be pretty darn difficult.
Two factors will keep holding you back:
You must pay off debt and cut all fun spending until that happens.
Break the paycheck to paycheck cycle.
Live a lifestyle that you can afford.
It is possible to get ahead with money!
It just comes with proper money management skills and a desire to have less stress around money. That is a winning combination regardless of your income level.
$100K a year Budget – Example
As always, here at Money Bliss, we focus on covering our basic expenses plus saving and giving first, and then our goal is to eliminate debt. The rest of the money is left for fun spending.
If you want to know how to manage a 100k salary the best, then this is a prime example for you to compare your spending.
You can compare your budget to the ideal household budget percentages.
recommended budget percentages based on $100000 a year salary:
Category
Ideal Percentages
Sample Monthly Budget
Giving
10%
$833
Savings
15-25%
$1683
Housing
20-30%
$2000
Utilities
4-7%
$229
Groceries
5-12%
$667
Clothing
1-4%
$33
Transportation
4-10%
$225
Medical
5-12%
$375
Life Insurance
1%
$21
Education
1-4%
$25
Personal
2-7%
$83
Recreation / Entertainment
3-8%
$188
Debts
0% – Goal
$0
Government Tax (including Income Taxes, Social Security & Medicare)
15-25%
$1971
Total Gross Income
$8,333
**In this budget, prioritization was given to savings, basic expenses, and no debt.
Is $100,000 a year a Good Salary?
As we stated earlier if you are able to make $100,000 a year, that is a good salary. You are making more money than the average American and slightly less on the bell curve on the median income.
You shouldn’t be questioning yourself if 100000 is a good salary.
However, too many times people get stuck in the lifestyle trap of trying to keep up with the Joneses, and their lifestyle desires get out of hand compared to their salary. And what they thought used to be a great salary actually is not making ends meet at this time.
The good news is you are in the six figures club!
This $100k salary would be considered a upper-middle class salary. This salary is something that you can live on very comfortably.
Check: Are you in the middle class?
In fact, this income level in the United States has enough buying power to put you in the top 91 percentile globally for per person income (source).
The question you need to ask yourself with your 100k salary is:
Am I maxed at the top of my career?
Is there more income potential?
What obstacles do I face if I want to try to increase my income?
In the future years and with possible inflation, some expensive cities 100,000 a year is not a good salary because the cost of living is so high, whereas these are some of the cities that you can make a comfortable living at 100,000 per year. You probably need to make $200k a year.
If you are looking for a career change, you may want to look at is being your boss or starting a side business. Then, you can move towards seven figures.
Is 100k a good salary for a Single Person?
Simply put, yes.
You can stretch your salary much further because you are only worried about your own expenses. A single person will spend much less than if you need to provide for someone else.
Your living expenses and ideal budget are much less. Thus, you can live extremely comfortably on $100000 per year.
And… most of us probably regret how much money wasted when we were single. Oh well, lesson learned.
Is 100k a good salary for a family?
Many of the same principles apply above on whether $100000 is a good salary. The main difference with a family, you have more people to provide for than when you are single or have just one other person in your household.
The cost of raising a child born in 2015 is $233,610 (source). That is from birth to the age of 17 and this does not include college.
As you can tell this is a huge dent in your income, specifically $12,980 annually per child. If you make the decision to have children, then you need to be financially prepared for the impact on your finances.
That means that amount of money is coming out of the income that you earned.
So, the question really remains is can you provide a good life for your family making $100,000 a year? This is the hardest part because each family has different choices, priorities, and values.
More or less, it comes down to two things:
The location where you live in.
Your lifestyle choices.
You can live comfortably as a family on this salary, but you will not be able to afford everything you want.
Many times when raising a family, it is helpful to have a dual-income household. That way you are able to provide the necessary expenses if one party was making 100,000 per year and the other 55000 per year, then the combined income for the household would be $155,000. Thus making your combined salary an upper class income.
Learn how much money a family of 4 needs in each state.
Can you Live on $100000 Per Year?
As we outlined earlier in the post, $100,000 a year:
$48.08 Per Hour
$384-480 Per Day (depending on length of day worked)
$1923 Per Week
$3846 Per Biweekly
$8333 Per Month
You should be very grateful you are not living on $30000 a year anymore.
Like anything else in life, you get to decide how to spend, save and give your money.
That is the difference for each person on whether or not you can live a middle-class lifestyle depends on many potential factors. If you live in California or New Jersey you are gonna have a tougher time than Oklahoma or even Texas.
In addition, if you are early in your career, starting out around 65,000 a year, that is a great place to be getting your career. However, if you have been in your career for over 20 years and making $100K, then you probably need to look at asking for pay increases, pick up a second job, or find a different career path.
Regardless of the wage that you make, if you are not able to live the lifestyle that you want, then you have to find ways to make it work for you. Everybody has choices to make.
But one of the things that can help you the most is to stick to our ideal household budget percentages to make sure you stay on track.
Learn exactly how much do I make per year…
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Did the post resonate with you?
More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!
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