Two former New Jersey-based mortgage loan originators have been charged with conspiracy to commit bank fraud by the U.S. Attorney’s Office, District of New Jersey according to an announcement by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and U.S. Attorney Philip Sellinger.
Christopher Gallo has been recognized as a top-producing loan originator, at one point being named Scotsman Guide‘s fourth-ranked LO in America. Gallo previously shared perspectives with HousingWire on his business strategy for 2023 after enduring challenges in 2022. At the time, Gallo was employed by NJ Lenders Corp, which primarily operates in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.
Alongside Gallo, Mehmet Elmas was also named in the complaint, filed by a special agent working under the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The complaint says that Gallo and Elmas were employed by the same company at the time of the alleged offense, with Elmas working as Gallo’s assistant.
Gallo and Elmas have each been released on a $200,000 bond after appearing before a magistrate judge in Newark federal court, the DOJ said.
“From 2018 through October 2023, Gallo and Elmas used their positions to conspire and engage in a fraudulent scheme to falsify loan origination documents sent to mortgage lenders in New Jersey and elsewhere, including their former employer, to fraudulently obtain mortgage loans,” the DOJ alleges.
The pair allegedly “routinely mislead mortgage lenders about the intended use of properties to fraudulently secure lower mortgage interest rates,” adding they “often submitted loan applications falsely stating that the listed borrowers were the primary residents of certain proprieties when, in fact, those properties were intended to be used as rental or investment properties,” the complaint alleges.
The alleged scheme misled lenders about the “true intended use of the properties,” and “Gallo and Elmas secured and profited from mortgage loans that were approved at lower interest rates,” the DOJ claimed.
The alleged conspiracy also included falsifying property records, including “building safety and financial information of prospective borrowers to facilitate mortgage loan approval,” the DOJ alleged.
In a statement, NJ Lenders Corp told HousingWire that it is cooperating with law enforcement as the investigation progresses.
“NJ Lenders is proud of its 33 years of successfully assisting homeowners with integrity and professionalism. We are fully cooperating with law enforcement and the ongoing investigation of two former employees,” said Mark Tabakin, an attorney for NJ Lenders.
“The actions of these former employees appear to have been coordinated to benefit them financially while taking advantage of the reputation and trust of the firm,” he continued. “NJ Lenders’ work will continue uninterrupted as we provide the highest level of service to our clients.”
Gallo originated more than $1.4 billion in loans between 2018 and October 2023, according to the DOJ. When listed as the fourth top-producing LO in 2022 by Scotsman Guide, the publication placed his total volume at $1.175 billion for that year alone. One-third of his loans were purchases, with the remainder being refinances.
“The conspiracy to commit bank fraud charge carries a maximum potential penalty of 30 years in prison and a $1 million fine, or twice the gross gain or loss from the offense, whichever is greatest,” DOJ said.
Gallo joined CrossCountry Mortgage in October 2023, according to NMLS licensing information. His webpage at CCM was taken down on Wednesday, and a spokesperson for the Cleveland-based retail lender did not immediately return a request for comment.
This story has been updated with a statement from NJ Lenders Corp.
Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
Housing inventory
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
New listings
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
Pending sales
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
Home prices
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Price reductions
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. However, 2023 tested my model as the inventory growth rate on a week-to-week basis was slow, even when rates headed toward 8%. It’s a simple model: inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly with rates over 7.25%. After failing time and time again, we finally got there this week with 16,582.
Weekly inventory change (April 12-19): Inventory rose from 526,462 to 543,044
The same week last year (April 14-21), Inventory rose from 406,600 to 414,701
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,060,669
New listings data
Now that inventory is growing more closely with what I am looking for, new listing data must keep its year-over-year growth trend. Last year, when mortgage rates headed toward 8%, we saw no negative hit to the latest listings data, meaning it didn’t take a new leg lower. So, with higher rates now and some growth year over year, I hope we keep the momentum going. We need this to happen to get balance in housing.
Here’s what new listings look like for last week over the last several years:
2024: 68,769
2023: 59,269
2022: 59,803
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
As mortgage rates rise with inventory, the price-cut percentage should increase unless demand keeps up with inventory growth. Last week, we saw a slight decline in the price cuts.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.4%
2022: 18.7%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had a lot of headline drama last week, between Powell talking about taking rate cuts off the table, escalating war in the Middle East, and economic data beating estimates. This sent the 10-year yield and mortgage rates higher. I talked about this on the HousingWire Daily podcast, discussing my central theme that for the Fed to pivot, it’s labor over Inflation.
When the labor market breaks, the Fed will pivot; we aren’t there just yet. As the chart below shows, many people were looking at the growth rate of inflation falling as the main driver for the Fed, but that isn’t working in this cycle.
One positive story about mortgage rates in 2024 is that the spreads are improving, and that has kept a lid on the damage from higher yields. The spreads are acting a bit better than I thought they would, I had assumed we would need to get closer to rate cuts before they would behave this way. However, this bodes well for the future because if the spreads get back to normal and the 10-year yield falls with it, we can easily get to the low 6s range for mortgage rates and potentially below 6%.
Purchase application data
One surprising data point from last week was that purchase application data showed positive growth, and the year-over-year decline was much less.
However, the only reason this happened is that the week before, the Easter holiday negatively impacted the data, which made this week’s growth data need a lot of context. With weekly housing data, holiday activity can move negative and positive, but after two weeks, it gets back on trend. So, take last week’s growth with a grain of salt.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 11 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had five positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
The week ahead: Housing and inflation
We have new home sales and pending home sales coming up this week, and we will see how much the recent rate increase has impacted the data line. Also, the Fed’s main inflation report, the PCE inflation data, will be released on Friday, so it should be a wild day. Ever since the 10-year yield broke it’s critical support line, the bond market and mortgage rates have been acting up, so this inflation report will be key as the Fed will factor in how much we need mortgage rates to stay higher for longer in this economic expansion.
There is nothing good to report on mortgage rates from last week. The chart below shows that we broke the critical technical level on the 10-year yield (marked with a red line). The CPI data, which the Federal Reserve doesn’t track for its 2% target, came in 0.1% hotter than estimates, but that was good enough to take one mortgage rate cut off the table for now. I talked about this last week on the HousingWire Daily podcast.
Now that this technical level has been broken, 2024 is going to be a lot more interesting, something I discussed in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Now, with the specter of a wider war in the Middle East as Iran launches strikes against Israel, what will the bond market do? Some will say that bonds rallied ahead of the pending war news on Friday, but we will get a better answer Sunday night with bond market trading.
One positive thing for mortgage rates is that spreads between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year yield are improving. I believe these spreads became one of the bigger mortgage stories, as the banking crisis sent the spreads to new cycle highs. This data line is improving and for now, it mitigates the damage done by the higher 10-year yield.
Of course, if the spreads get better from here and bond yields fall again, then mortgage rates can act much better on the downside. This is something to watch for in the future.
Things are hapenning fast with mortgage rates, which is why I update HousingWire’s Mortgage Rate Center page with analysis every weekday morning — looking at how the bond market reacts to economic data or an event that can move rates.
Weekly housing inventory data
Usually, I would jump for joy at last week’s inventory growth. However, last week’s numbers don’t get a passing grade: The rebound impact of Easter boosted last week’s inventory data, just like it caused the inventory data to decline in the previous week.
One item to note for this year is the year-over-year comparisons on active inventory. Inventory bottomed out on April 14 last year, which was the longest time it took for the housing market to find a seasonal bottom ever. From now to the end of the year, the easy comps to show inventory growth are over. It will get more challenging to show more growth unless inventory starts to pick up, especially toward the end of 2024. However, with higher mortgage rates, we should see more inventory growth.
Weekly inventory change (April 5-12): Inventory rose from 512,930 to 526,462
The same week last year (April 7-14): Inventory fell from 411,577 to 406,600
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,042,221
New listings data
It’s the same story with the new listing data; we got a nice snap-back from Easter. I am a big fan of the inventory growing year over year based on new listing data, and this is a big plus for the housing market. I had anticipated more growth, but as long as we are showing some growth this year, I will take that as a victory. Last year, it was savagely unhealthy that new listings data was trending at the lowest recorded levels.
2024: 66,786
2023: 48,556
2022: 67,229
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
This price-cut data line is critical to track now as inventory growth picks up for spring and mortgage rates have increased since the start of the year. Higher mortgage rates mean higher inventory growth and more price cuts, which keeps the model simple.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32.1%
2023: 29.8%
2022: 18.8%
Purchase application data
Purchase applications dropped last week, down 5% week to week, but they showed a significant 23% decline year over year. The Easter holiday year-over-year comps have played a bit into this data line. We saw an excellent rebound in our pending contracts data last week and the inventory growth data from week to week. Now that Easter is out of the mix, we can move ahead on the week-to-week and year-over-year data with some more clarity.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 10 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
The week ahead: War, retail sales and housing data
Do mortgage rates move with war news? Yes, they often do. Some speculate that in a war, money goes into the bond market as a flight to safety, pushing rates lower. However, war can also lead to higher inflation and higher mortgage rates. I discussed the economics of conflicts tied to mortgage rates as a premise for double-digit mortgage rates on this recent HousingWire Daily podcast.
This week, we will see how the bond and stock markets react to the news from the Middle East. We will also get retail sales numbers, which have been holding up better than most had anticipated for some time now. Also, we’ll get a ton of housing data, including the builders confidence, housing starts and existing home sales.
So far, we have held the line on the market pricing in three rate cuts, but today was a clear break from that. Earlier in the year, the market got well ahead of itself with saying we would have six rate cuts, but I believe, just like last year, the bond market was too bearish on the economy to price in six rate cuts. We have a lot of time left in 2024, and as you can see in the chart below, the 2-year yield has been on a roller coaster since last November.
From BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
One note: this report isn’t 100% a result of shelter inflation being hotter than estimates; car insurance and energy have picked up recently, too. However, the giant monster in the CPI world is shelter, as it’s 44.4% of the index.
Shelter inflation
In this report, shelter inflation damaged the month-to-month inflation growth because the owner’s equivalent rent of residences (OER) was the primary driver of monthly inflation.
Regarding shelter inflation, as we can see below, the slow-moving monster is just not dropping fast enough to lower the core inflation data. With CPI inflation, rents are the biggest deal for core inflation. If we have stronger month-to-month inflation, it will slow down the year-over-year data enough to keep CPI elevated.
Rent data
The OER is becoming a more significant issue for the CPI data this year. We must also be mindful that while we see disinflation in apartments, single-family rents are holding up well. However, the slowdown on this index keeps the data elevated. A more real-time shelter model would change the story very quickly, but that’s not going to happen.
Core CPI
We have made some progress on Core CPI, but remember; the Fed doesn’t track CPI inflation for their 2% target; it’s PCE inflation, and the gap between CPI and PCE inflation is massive. Historically, we would see a gap of 0.47%. Currently, it’s double that. However, with shelter inflation slowly moving lower year over year, core CPI is stalling out until this data line breaks it much lower.
Today, the 0.1% miss on estimates on CPI has taken one Fed rate cut off the table, and mortgage rates have gone higher today. I don’t believe the Fed will pivot until the labor market breaks, something I talked about on this HousingWire Daily podcast. We do see some wage-growth trends that the Fed will find suitable to get more dovish, but the labor data isn’t breaking until jobless claims break.
Next up, we will get the PPI inflation data, which filters into the all-important PCE inflation data. Stay tuned!
Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
The same week last year (March 30-April 7): Inventory rose from 410,734 to 411,577
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,021,567
New listings data
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
2024: 54,769
2023: 55,008
2022: 63,374
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.9%
2022: 17.6%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
Week ahead: Inflation week!
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates remained stable this week as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report matched economists’ expectations.
As a result, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.17% on Tuesday, up from 7.16% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.5%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.43% on Tuesday, down from 6.51% one week earlier.
“We had the PCE inflation report come out Friday and because some people were expecting a hotter number than estimates, it was perceived to be bullish for rate cuts,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami wrote on Saturday.
“The 10-year yield channel is between 4.25%-3.80%, which looks correct as long as the economic data stays firm and jobless claims don’t break higher. This means mortgage rates will likely remain in the upper range of my 2024 forecast of 6.75%-7.25%.
“Monday’s economic data was good; the manufacturing data came in at a huge beat and the GDP (gross domestic product) revisions were positive for this quarter’s upside,” Mohtashami added. “For the first time in a long time, both the U.S. manufacturing data are now in expansion territory. Bond yields rose and we have four labor reports to work on this week.”
As of March 29, there were 517,355 single-family homes on the market, up from 512,759 the week prior. During the same week last year, inventory fell from 413,883 to 410,734. The all-time inventory low was in 2022 at 240,194, while the inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898.
“We should have close to 700,000 homes on the market in August or September,” Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, wrote on Monday. “It won’t be a lot actually, but it’ll be the most homes available since 2019. The longer we stay at higher mortgage rates, the more inventory can build back to the old normal levels.”
According to the April 2024 Mortgage Monitor report from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), homeowners who took out mortgages with near-record-low rates in 2020 and 2021 face much higher monthly payments even if they move to an equivalently priced home. A “lateral move” of this type would cost 60% more per month, ICE reported.
“Lower rates would ease the calculation for many and make moves more reasonable,” Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at ICE Mortgage Technology, said in a statement. “But the net result continues to be too few homes for too many buyers. Until that fundamental mismatch is addressed, simple supply and demand will continue to press on both inventory and affordability.”
Now that we are right in the middle of the spring buying season, my inventory model is simple: with higher mortgage rates, just like last year, we should be able to grow weekly active inventory between 11,000 – 17,000 on some weeks. Unfortunately, I batted a whopping zero last year since inventory growth never hit that level for even one week — even when mortgage rates hit 8%. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, which is my peak rate forecast.
Weekly inventory change (March 22-29): Inventory rose from 512,759 to 517,355
The same week last year (March 23-30): Inventory fell from 413,883 to 410,734
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,012,704
New listings data
While I am thrilled that new listings data is growing year over year, something I have been anticipating for some time, the growth in 2024 has been disappointing because I had expected a bit more by now. This was my big talking point on CNBC earlier in the year. Still, new listing data is a positive story. Here are the number of new listings for last week over the last several years:
2024: 59,854
2023: 48,442
2022: 56,258
For context, new listings data at this time in 2010 ran at 326,266.
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates increase and demand gets hit.
As inventory and demand grow year over year, the price-cut percentage data increases year over year. So, we will keep tracking this data line to see how high it goes this year. We keep it simple: higher inventory softness in demand means price growth is weakening. As we can see below, the year-over-year data is showing a higher percentage of price cuts.
2024: 31.9%
2023: 30.5%
2022: 17.2%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
For those of you who have followed me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work and therefore for the mortgage rate discussion. A break above this level would send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8%. So far, so good here.
We had the PCE inflation report come out Friday and because some people were expecting a hotter number than estimates, it was perceived to be bullish for rate cuts. However, the markets were closed Friday, so we have to wait and see how trading goes on Monday. The 10-year yield channel is between 4.25%-3.80%, which looks correct as long as the economic data stays firm and jobless claims don’t break higher. This means mortgage rates will likely remain in the upper range of my 2024 forecast of 6.75%-7.25%.
There was not too much action in mortgage rates last week, but with jobs week coming up, we could see some movement. As you can see below, the 10-year yield has made a massive move from 2022 and has stayed above 4%, even with the progress we have made with inflation. Always remember, when it comes to discussions about rates and the Fed pivoting, it’s always labor over inflation data.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 15% year over year.
Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and one flat print. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints and one flat print.
What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? Purchase apps made a solid positive run up until mortgage rates started to get back over 7%. This was similar to 2023 data, when purchase apps had 12 weeks of a positive run-up until rates moved toward 7% and then 8%.
Week ahead: We’ll see trading off the inflation report and it’s jobs week
First, the trading on Monday will be exciting because of the PCE inflation report; some argue it was hot and some say it wasn’t. The market decides this, and bond trading will judge it on Monday morning.
Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell talked on Friday. I believe Powell’s crucial comment was that the Fed won’t overreact to significant disinflation or heated inflation reports. I think some people missed this. If you want to understand why the markets still have three rate cuts priced in, it’s this mindset.
Then it’s jobs week, with four labor reports, and, of course, for me, it’s labor over inflation data, so buckle up!
Want more context? On the PowerHouse podcast with HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins, I discussed why the data lines we look at in the Housing Market Tracker are so critical for those in the housing industry.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are asking federal housing officials to confirm their treatment of interested party contributions (IPCs) to home purchase transactions.
In a letter addressed to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) director Sandra Thompson, Fannie Mae CEO Priscilla Almodovar, Freddie Mac CEO Michael DeVito, and Federal Housing Administration (FHA) commissioner Julia Gordon on Wednesday, the NAR and MBA wrote that it was important for the agencies and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to review NAR’s commission lawsuit settlement agreement.
They asked the federal officials to “provide guidance to market participants that will ensure these new arrangements will continue to be supported by” FHA and GSE underwriting standards.
At the moment, IPCs “include concessions from the seller to the buyer for items that are traditionally paid by the buyer such as loan closing costs or rate buy-downs,” but as buyer agents are customarily paid by the listing agent, their fees are excluded from caps on the IPCs.
Under existing FHA policy, for example, if sellers continue to pay buyer-side real estate agent commissions and fees as a matter of state or local laws or customs — and if the commissions and fees are reasonable in amount — these payments would not be treated as interested party contributions provided all other requirements are met.
Under the terms of NAR’s settlement agreement, the practice of cooperative compensation is still allowed, but it cannot be offered through a Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Sellers or buyers can pay the buyer’s agent’s fees.
“Consequently, once the settlement is in effect, we believe that FHA and GSE policy should continue to exclude seller or listing agent payment of buyer agents’ commission from IPCs,” the NAR and MBA wrote. “Confirming your policies and maintaining this practice will sustain the current flow of mortgage capital to home buyers without change or delay.”
The two trade organizations urge federal officials to provides this certainty now, as they feel it is needed “to prevent disruptions that may cost homebuyers and sellers money and potentially their home purchases.”
NAR also sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) on Wednesday, urging it to revise policies that prohibit veterans from paying buyer broker commissions.
The current VA rule states that a borrower using a VA loan cannot pay fees or commissions to a real estate agent unless determined “by the Under Secretary for Benefits as appropriate for inclusion … as proper local variances.”
NAR told John Bell, the executive director of VA’s Loan Guaranty Service, that the current policy would put VA buyers at a disadvantage, as they would potentially be forced to forego professional representation.
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.
As rates were hitting year-to-date highs, the fear was that the Fed would go hawkish in their March meeting, which could push mortgage rates toward 8% and tank 2024 demand. Thankfully, that didn’t happen, and — as I said on the HousingWire Daily podcast last week —we dodged a bullet.
Let’s look at the tracker data to see how mortgage rates are impacting the housing data as we settle into spring.
10-year yield and mortgage rate talk
For those of you who have me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work. A break of this level could send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8% for spring 2024. Not only did this not happen last week, but bond yields fell during the week. As we can see below, we have held the line once again, but we aren’t out of the dark forest yet.
As we can see in the chart below, the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have made a massive move higher since 2022. However, whenever the 10-year yield falls with duration, as we saw toward the end of 2022 and into 2023, it sends mortgage rates lower, and we can grow sales from these record-low levels.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data really moves on mortgage rates — something we saw in late 2022 and into 2023. As rates ticked up recently, purchase apps were down 1% week to week and down 14% year over year.
Since November 2023, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints. What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? When mortgage rates fall, demand picks up. Imagine a housing market with just 6% mortgage rates or lower — it would be growing like what we see in the new home sales market.
Weekly housing inventory data
The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly. The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also new listings. We’re not seeing seller stress in the inventory data but just a typical increase in inventory when rates are higher, which looks perfectly normal.
Here is a look at the inventory last week:
Weekly inventory change (March 15-22): Inventory rose from 507,160 to 512,759
The same week last year (March 16-23): Inventory fell from 414,967 to 413,883
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 985,141
New listings data
New listing data is growing! This data line is slightly lower than I hoped for for 2024, but we are still growing. Right now we are a tad below the levels we saw in 2022 before mortgage rates spiked over 6%. Here’s the weekly new listing data for last week over several previous years:
2024: 60,328
2023: 49,933
2022: 61,862
For some historical context, in 2011, new listings this week were at 362,339 .
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Keep it simple here, folks: inventory is growing year over year; if demand stays weaker with higher rates, the price-cut percentage data should increase faster, and if demand picks up with lower rates, it shouldn’t. As we can see below, the data line is very seasonal, like most housing data.
2024: 31.4%
2023: 30.4%
2022: 17%
The week ahead: Housing and inflation data
Next week, we have new home sales, pending home sales and the national home price index data. I will be on CNBC Monday morning to discuss the new home sales report. Of course, the Fed’s main inflation indicator, the PCE, will come out on Friday, which is a trading holiday, which will be key for rates short-term until we have the next Fed meeting. So, we have a lot of data to work with this week.