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A lot has been written about whether now is the best time to buy stocks.
Many think that it is a good idea, and others are still skeptical. So which one should you believe?
This article will help answer the question once and for all with facts rather than opinions.
But first, let’s look at some statistics:
S&P 500 Total Returns for 2021 was 28.71% (source)
In the past 20 years (2003-2021), the S&P 500 was down three times. (source)
Over the 10 year period of 2011-2020, the S&P 500 averaged 13.9% (source)
With that said, will it be best to invest now?
Honestly, that is an answer no one can give you. And the movies about Wall Street won’t help you either.
However, you can learn to read charts become a technical analysis trader, and have a better idea of where the market is going.
The stock market is a volatile thing. It can go up or down at any time. As the statistics show, it goes up more often than down.
Is it Smart to Invest in Stocks?
The stock market is a great way to make money whether for income or for long-term investments. Plus it is a lot more accessible than you think.
With stocks on an upswing lately, it might be tempting to dive in. But do not get too excited just yet!
You must learn how to invest in stocks.
Are you ready to make money in the stock market? If so, learn the steps to start investing today.
In order to make educated decisions, it is crucial that you understand what makes stocks go up or down.
Since you might be asking yourself whether it is a good time to buy stocks after the market has been on such an upswing for several months. The answer is yes, but there are some important factors you should consider before handing over your money.
This article will discuss how the stock market works and provide you with reasons why now may not be a great time to invest in stocks as well as alternatives that could make sense for you if this is indeed a bad time to purchase them.
Read more!
What is the Stock Market?
The stock market is a system of securities, such as stocks and bonds, in which investors buy and sell ownership stakes to each other on various exchanges using money or their own businesses.
Simply put, the stock market is a place where people invest money.
There are many different ways to invest in the stock market, but one of the most popular ways is through buying stocks.
Investing in stocks is a commonly used way to make money.
In the stock market, people can buy and sell shares of companies they believe will rise in value. You can participate by investing in the stock market by buying individual shares of a company like AMZN (Amazon), investing in an ETF like VTI, or investing with a mutual fund, such as VTSAX.
One former assistant principal, Teri Ijeoma, changed her life when she left her job as an educator and become an active trader.
What does it mean when the stock market is up or down
When the stock market is up, it means that stocks have been doing well.
Conversely, when the stock market is down, it means that stocks are losing value.
You have heard the saying… buy low, sell high.
Stocks are an investment that you can purchase in order to make a profit, but the best time to buy stocks is when they are at their lowest price.
If you bought a stock for $100 and its value increased by 10%, then your stock would be worth $110. However, if you bought 20 stocks at $100 and the value increased by 10%, then your new value is $2,200. If you are trading options, then your return (and risk) is much greater.
When the market is up or down there are always going to be opportunities to make money from the stock market!
The hardest part for the novice investor is to determine when to buy and sell.
Thankfully, there is a great investing course to help you figure out how to invest in stocks and options.
Timing the Stock Market
Can you even time the stock market?
Many people are concerned with timing the stock market because of its volatility. Honestly, no one knows what the stock market will do.
As a technical stock trader, you will learn based on previous actions how the market and individual stocks may react.
When day traders or swing traders “time” the market, they are using time frames to make their predictions. Those traders who manage their risk and potential losses well will do better in the market.
For the average investor or someone going off a friend or Reddit recommendation, timing the market can be detrimental to your portfolio.
The real answer to the question, “Is now a good time to buy stocks?” is that there’s no such thing as an ideal moment. It could be a great time or it could also be terrible timing. There are too many variables and market risks which makes this decision very difficult for investors.
Too many times, investors fall into the trap of panic selling while stock prices are low and buying when stocks are high on the fear of missing out (FOMO).
That is why the common knowledge states don’t time the market.
However, I can tell you that you can time the market. If (and it is a big if) you are willing to put the time and effort into an investing education as you would going to college.
Many people have found success in timing the market.
Why investing is always a good idea
Remember earlier in this post, we stated the stock market has averaged 13.9% over the past 10 years and only had 3 negative years in the past twenty.
Simply put, that means you can make money, and investing is a good idea.
That is better than the flip side of your money sitting in the back earning slightly above 0% and when you account for inflation, your money is worthless.
The stock market is (almost) always following an upwards trajectory.
This means investors are more likely to experience gains in their investments than they would if the prices were going down. Moreover, it’s almost never a good idea to just let your money sit doing nothing for years on end because inflation will eventually force you into losing value at some point.
Instead of waiting until then and hoping for the best, focus on what you want instead of what the market is doing at any specific moment.
Must Read: How To Invest In Stocks For Beginners: Investing Made Easy
Is now a good time to invest?
This is the wrong question. The better question to ask would be “What is a good time to invest?”
It is not always a good time to invest. Before buying stocks, it is important that you do your research and have a clear purpose for investing in the first place. Once you know why you are investing, then it will be easier to answer when now might actually be a good time.
What are your goals for investing in stocks?
Are you looking to make extra money?
Do you enjoy learning about the fundamentals of your favorite companies?
Do you have the time to invest to learn about investing in stocks and executing trades?
The desire to increase your investment accounts and net worth appealing?
If you answered yes, then you are ready to start investing in stocks.
If you said no, then stick to consistently investing in EFTs or mutual funds. That is still a solid investing strategy!
The bottom line is whether you are ready to invest. The stock market will continue to do its thing whether you choose to participate or not.
Why does the stock market just keep going up?
The stock market has been steadily climbing for the long trend.
As a result, it’s important to be aware of the factors that influence how much you can profit from stocks. This includes understanding what drives stock prices and when these markets are likely to go up or down.
The reality is that there is no such thing as an “always” in investing — there will always be downturns at some point for any market, but those dips won’t last forever either.
As history proves, the stock market over time will keep going up.
Why has the stock market dropped?
This is the #1 reason why most people are terrified of investing in the stock market.
The fear of the stock market dropping and losing money. Or maybe they were burned in the previous market corrections in 2001 or 2008.
Typically, the stock market has dropped because of the following:
The global economy is going through a rough patch.
There is fear that the US may be headed for another recession.
The US is experiencing inflation that has caused the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
In other words, investors are uncertain about the future of the global economy and are afraid of a recession in the US, which will have a significant impact on the stock market.
Just remember, the S&P 500 has come back each time after posting a year or two of negative returns.
However, you can still make money as an investor when the market goes down! Learn how to ride that elevator up and down.
What are the best times to trade stocks?
Ask a few different investment gurus and you are likely to get a variety of answers such as:
It is best to trade stocks when the market is down and on a day with low volume. This way, you are less likely to be hit with volatility that could cause your profits to drop.
The best times to trade stocks are when the market is stable, meaning that there are few fluctuations in price. The most optimal time to enter and exit the market is during a period of low volatility.
The best time to trade stocks is when the market is at an all-time high. (very wrong idea, so don’t try this one)
Traders should try and stay away from markets when volatility or uncertainty is high.
It is important to understand the best times for trading stocks in order to maximize profits.
Overall, your trading plan will tell you the best time for you to trade stocks. Over time with practice in a simulated account, you will be aware of the best times for trading.
Your best times will be different than mine; they will vary for all of us and that is okay. We all view the stock market and read charts in our own way.
Best Stocks to Buy Right Now
What are the stocks to invest in right now? Should you buy stocks now?
Well, first of all, I am not an advisor telling you what to invest in. You are responsible for doing your due diligence.
The best stocks to buy are the stocks that you understand the best– YOUR Watchlist!
Typically, that means following 10 stock tickers and learning everything you can about how those stocks move.
Other investing gurus may tell you the best stock to buy is one that has a low price-to-earnings ratio. This is because the company has room for growth, and they are more than likely not overvalued in the market. They look for industries that are experiencing either a slowdown or an increase in competition.
Personally, I like to stick with strong, healthy companies to buy.
Many times the best stocks to buy right now are growth stocks, which have been very successful in 2021. These types of companies grow rapidly and offer significant returns on investment in a short period time frame.
What are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? These are the most popular stocks investors tend to follow:
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
Advanced Microdevices (Nasdaq: AMD)
Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN)
Meta / Facebook (Nasdaq: FB)
Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA)
Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)
More Best Stocks to Buy
When you invest in these stocks as an investor, it is important that you look for them during their good moments so that your investments will increase significantly over time and always have risk management strategies in place (BEFORE YOU ENTER THE TRADE).
Can You Afford to Buy Stocks?
There are a lot of factors that go into determining the best time for someone to begin investing or trading stocks.
The most important aspect is whether or not you have enough money at your disposal, which can be determined by your personal financial situation.
Other factors that may play a role in determining the best time to trade are whether or not the person trading has a specific investment objective, and if they have a time-sensitive need.
You need to know your long-term goals for buying stocks.
Are you buying stocks as a long-term investor or if you are buying stocks for income?
Either way, you need a solid idea of how to plan to manage your risk and maximize your profit. That is why investing in stocks is so enticing for so many traders.
Read Now: How Fast Can You Make Money in Stocks?
So, should you buy stocks now?
The current market conditions are a great time to buy or short-sell stocks.
However, there are many trading mistakes when investors place a trade.
Whether we are experiencing a bull run or heading into a bear market, there is always money to be made in the stock market. You should not question yourself is it time to buy stocks.
Regardless, you must invest the money in a solid investing education. That is non-negotiable.
If you want to go out and start buying stocks without investing knowledge, that is fine. Just do not complain if you lose more money than the only investing course I recommend. Check out my Trade and Travel review.
You must do your own due diligence when investing in stocks and finding a good time to buy stocks.
This is your investing journey!
Your journey will be different than my investing journey. That is okay because we each will find our niche and how we like to trade stocks.
Back to the original question, is now a good time to buy stocks?
Overall, you must look for the best companies to invest in. That will make you successful at investing.
Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!
Did the post resonate with you?
More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!
Your comments are not just welcomed; they’re an integral part of our community. Let’s continue the conversation and explore how these ideas align with your journey towards Money Bliss.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday for the fourth consecutive day. So, it’s been a good week for those rates, and they’re now appreciably lower than they were seven days ago.
Whether that happy experience extends into next week will likely depend almost entirely on Tuesday’s inflation report, the consumer price index (CPI) for February. So, yet again, I’m forced to say mortgage rates next week could go either way. Ask me again late on Tuesday morning.
Find and lock a low rate
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.02%
7.04%
-0.08
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.51%
6.54%
+0.05
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.03%
7.05%
Unchanged
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.57%
6.59%
+0.08
30-year fixed FHA
6.15%
6.82%
+0.05
30-year fixed VA
6.43%
6.54%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.28%
7.35%
-0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
I think it unlikely that the last couple of rate-friendly weeks are the start of the sustained downward trend in mortgage rates that I’ve been predicting for months. However, if next Tuesday’s CPI report turns out to be exceptionally good for those rates, I just might be proved wrong.
But I doubt it. So, my personal rate lock recommendations are now:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
This week
The economic data published earlier this week suggested that economic growth is slowing at just the right rate. Mortgage rate watchers would like to see it cooling but not enough to trigger a recession.
Typically mortgage rates tend to be lower when the economy is struggling or at least not running too hot.
Some indicators this week pointed to continuing resilience, including the headline figure in yesterday’s jobs report. However, that was balanced out by a very large downward revision to the previous month’s number, and by the report’s other major components being friendly to mortgage rates
Next week’s CPI
So much depends on next Tuesday’s CPI. Only the jobs report rivals its ability to move mortgage rates so far and for so long.
As usual, we want lower numbers on the day than markets are expecting. Wall Street will already have priced into mortgage rates the consensus forecasts. So, it’s the gap between expectations and reality that changes those rates.
There are four main items in the CPI report:
All-items CPI — The amount by which the prices of all surveyed items moved in February. Called just CPI
Core CPI — The all-items CPI after volatile food and energy prices have been stripped out, revealing underlying inflation in February
YOY CPI — The year-over-year CPI will reveal how all surveyed items moved between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024
YOY core CPI — The year-over-year core CPI will reveal how all surveyed prices for items excluding food and energy moved between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024
Here’s what’s currently expected, according to MarketWatch, for the upcoming February report:
February CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items to have risen by 0.4%. (0.3% in January report)
February core CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items excluding those for food and energy to have risen by 0.3%. (0.4% in January report)
YOY CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items to have risen by 3.1% between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024. (3.1% in January report)
YOY core CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items excluding those for food and energy to have risen by 3.7% between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024. (3.9% in January report)
Remember, mortgage rates are more likely to fall if actual figures are lower than the expected ones.
Other important reports next week
The other economic reports are much less likely to move mortgage rates far or for long. But those most likely to do so, in rough order of importance, are:
February retail sales on Thursday — Expected to rise by +0.7% compared to January’s -0.8%
February producer price index (PPI) on Thursday — Expected to hold steady at 0.3%. This measures wholesale and factory-gate prices so changes may turn up in later CPIs
February industrial production on Friday — Expected to rise to 0.0% from a negative in January. Also, capacity utilization, which is expected to inch lower compared to January
February import price index (IPI) on Wednesday — Expected to fall to 0.3% from January’s 0.8%. This measures price changes in foreign-sourced goods and services
Of those, retail sales and the PPI are most likely to affect mortgage rates. But even they rarely move them far or for long.
The Fed
Wall Street currently views most economic reports through the prism of how they’ll affect the Federal Reserve’s decisions on when it will start cutting general interest rates and how often it will do so after that.
That’s why The Wall Street Journal (paywall) yesterday greeted the jobs report with the headline, “Hiring Boom Continues, but Signs of a Cooling Labor Market Boost Rate-Cut Hopes.” In the article beneath it said:
“The Goldilocks report lends credence to the Federal Reserve’s outlook that somewhat lower interest rates could be warranted later this year, potentially providing a boost to markets that have been on a tear to start 2024.
“Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, summed up Friday’s report with one word: cool. ‘That’s what the Fed wants to see right now,’ he said.
The Fed will next decide on rate policy on Mar. 20. Very few expect it to cut general interest rates that day. But Wall Street hopes it will strongly hint at cuts at the May or June meetings of its rate-setting committee.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Monday — Nothing
Tuesday — February consumer price index. Also small business optimism index for the same month
Wednesday — Nothing
Thursday — February retail sales. Plus February producer price index. And initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 9
Friday — February industrial production and capacity utilization. Also, the February import price index
With the consumer price index, Tuesday is make-or-break day.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
I hate not giving rate forecasts for the following week. But this is the third consecutive Saturday on which I really can’t.
Nobody knows what Tuesday’s CPI will say. And that’s very likely to determine how mortgage rates will move over the next seven days.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
Interest — The price of borrowing
Taxes — Specifically property taxes
Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately for a third consecutive day yesterday. But don’t get too comfortable. The two economic reports that are most consequential for those rates are both due over the next few days. And they could change everything.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.1%
7.12%
-0.06
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.46%
6.49%
-0.08
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.03%
7.05%
-0.01
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.48%
6.51%
-0.11
30-year fixed FHA
6.11%
6.77%
-0.13
30-year fixed VA
6.43%
6.54%
-0.08
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.29%
7.36%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Are the steady falls in mortgage rates we’ve been seeing in recent days the start of the sustained downward trend I’ve been predicting? It’s possible. But I doubt it.
I’m not expecting that to begin properly for at least a couple of months and perhaps longer.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ticked down to 4.08% from 4.09%. (Good for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices inched down to $78.53 from $78.60 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices edged up to $2,174 from $2,158 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — increased minimally to 75 from 74 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to move downward. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning, we finally saw the February jobs report (aka the employment situation report). And it might prove less bad for mortgage rates than one might fear.
Yesterday, I described the report’s three headline figures. Here they are again with this morning’s actual figures shown in bold:
Nonfarm payrolls (the number of new jobs created that month) — Today’s actual: 275,000. Markets were expecting that to be 198,000, well down from January’s 353,000
Unemployment rate — Today’s actual: 3.9%. Markets were expecting that to be 3.7%, unchanged from January
Average hourly wages — Today’s actual: 0.1%. Markets were expecting a 0.2% rise, much lower than January’s 0.6% increase
You can see that the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings numbers would typically be good for mortgage rates. But markets tend to react to nonfarm payrolls primarily. And The Wall Street Journal (paywall) reported the data under the headline, “Hiring Boom Continues With 275,000 Jobs Added.”
Still, the news wasn’t as dire as it could have been: Two out of three ain’t bad. So, I’m hoping that markets won’t punish mortgage rates too badly.
One caveat on today’s report — and other important ones. Markets don’t always respond in the ways we’ve come to expect. Sometimes, there’s a delayed reaction. Other times, investors might discover something hidden in the minutiae of the report that changes their response. And, occasionally, they just act perversely.
Next week
Just as this week has been dominated by this morning’s jobs report, next week is likely to pivot on Tuesday morning’s consumer price index (CPI).
We’re also due February’s retail sales figures on Wednesday and various inflation and other reports. But the CPI’s likely to rule next week.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 7 report put that same weekly average at 6.88% down from the previous week’s 6.94%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Average mortgage rates just inched lower yesterday. And they were effectively unchanged over the last seven days.
Next week, the direction those rates take will probably hinge almost entirely on Friday’s jobs report and appearances before Congress of the Federal Reserve’s chair. (More on those below.) Of course, nobody knows what they will say. So, once again, I’m forced to say mortgage rates next week could go either way.
Find and lock a low rate
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.27%
7.29%
-0.02
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.68%
6.71%
-0.02
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.11%
7.14%
-0.02
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.59%
6.61%
-0.03
30-year fixed FHA
6.31%
6.98%
-0.08
30-year fixed VA
6.64%
6.75%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.31%
7.39%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
There’s no such thing as certainty in future mortgage rates. However, the chances of their gently gliding lower in 2024 are good. Unfortunately, it’s looking unlikely that the happy trend will arrive before late spring, and possibly well into the summer.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are now:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
Next week’s jobs report
Two monthly economic reports vie for the top spot as the most consequential for mortgage rates. One, the jobs report, is due next Friday. And the other, the consumer price index (CPI), is scheduled for the following Tuesday.
We’ll deal with the CPI next week. But let’s look at what the jobs report (formally called the employment situation report) for February might do.
With almost all economic data, mortgage rates tend to fall when the figures in a report are lower than markets are expecting. One exception crops up in the jobs report. It’s better for mortgage rates when the unemployment rate is higher than expected.
Before each report, analysts come up with a consensus forecast. And many investors trade ahead of publication based on the forecast, pricing it into mortgage rates and assets. So, when the forecast is wrong, investors are left scrambling to buy or sell assets as they rebalance their portfolios to reflect reality. The asset that largely determines mortgage rates is a type of bond called a mortgage-backed security (MBS).
So, let’s see what markets are expecting, according to MarketWatch, from the jobs report:
Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs added during the month) — 210,000 in February, down from 353,000 in January
Unemployment rate — 3.7% in February, unchanged from January
Hourly wages — 0.2% in February, down from 0.6% in January
To be clear, mortgage rates tend to fall when economic data are worse than expected. So, we’d like nonfarm payrolls to be below 210,000, hourly wages to have risen more slowly than 0.2%, and the unemployment rate to be higher than 3.7%.
Chances are, the jobs report will on Friday swamp the effects of all the other economic reports next week. But a few of the lesser ones might cause some volatility earlier in the week.
Other important reports next week
The ones most likely to do so are:
January factory orders on Tuesday — Expected to fall to -3.1% from December’s +0.2%
February purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Expected to fall slightly
February ADP employment report for the private sector on Wednesday — Expected to rise to 150,000 from 107,000 in January. Sometimes seen as a bellwether for the jobs report
January job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Wednesday — Openings are expected to dip slightly to 8.9 million from 9 million in December. A helpful peek under the labor market’s hood
Second reading of productivity during the last quarter of 2023 (Q4/23) on Thursday — Expected to be a shade lower than the first reading at 3.1% compared to 3.2%
We’d need to see big variations from the analysts’ consensus forecasts for these to move mortgage rates far or for long. But any of these might push those rates up or down.
The Fed
Although these and other reports routinely move mortgage rates even when inflation and the Federal Reserve are not front of mind, things are different now. Investors tend to view the data through the prism of how they might affect the Fed’s decisions on the timing and scope of future cuts to general interest rates.
One way they can gauge that is by listening to what top Fed officials say in public. And those have nine speaking engagements next week.
Most importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to provide evidence to Congress next Wednesday and Thursday. His voice is highly influential and his testimony could easily move mortgage rates.
The Fed will next decide on rate policy on Mar. 20. Very few expect it to cut general interest rates that day. But Wall Street hopes it will strongly hint at cuts at the May or June meetings of its rate-setting committee.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Monday — Nothing
Tuesday — February ISM PMI. Also factory orders for January
Wednesday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress. Also February’s ADP employment report and January’s JOLTS
Thursday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress (again). Plus productivity in Q4/23. And initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 2
Friday — February jobs report
The jobs report is by far the most important publication next week. But watch out, too, for the Fed chair’s appearances before Congress.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
Once again, mortgage rates are unpredictable next week. Whether they move higher or lower will largely depend on the jobs report (which regularly confounds analysts’ forecasts) and on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells Congress.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
Interest — The price of borrowing
Taxes — Specifically property taxes
Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The numbers: Pending home sales fell in January as rising mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the housing market.
Pending home sales fell 4.9% in January from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for an existing-home sale, but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.
The drop in pending home sales was the largest since August 2023, when they fell 5%.
The sales pace fell short of expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to increase by 1.5% in January.
Transactions were down 8.8% from last year.
Big picture: Mortgage rates began their ascent to 7% towards the end of January, when the market saw that the Federal Reserve would not be cutting interest rates in March.
Even slight increases in rates can affect how much some buyers can afford to buy a home. At 7%, the monthly payment on a $400,000 home would be roughly $2,700, and buyers would potentially need to earn $108,440 a year to afford that comfortably.
Looking ahead, applications for purchase mortgages are trending down, as mortgage rates remain over 7% at the end of February. That indicates that sales activity may be muted in the coming months.
What the Realtors said: “The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement.
While “this combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying,” he added, “consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.”
What they’re saying: “Pending home sales, or contract signings, measure the first formal step in the home sale transaction, namely, the point when a buyer and seller have agreed on the price and terms,” Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, said in a statement.
“Pending home sales tend to lead existing home sales by roughly one-to-two months and are a good indicator of market conditions,” she added. And “the recent uptick in rates could mean slower seasonally adjusted sales as the spring homebuying season kicks off.”
News that Capital One has struck a deal to buy Discover shook up the normally quiet Presidents Day banking holiday on Monday, teeing up the possibility of making Capital One the nation’s largest credit card issuer.
The Wall Street Journal reported the potential merger on Monday, followed by other outlets like Bloomberg and the New York Times. Capital One then released a statement confirming the planned acquisition.
Capital One Financial Corp., based in McLean, Virginia, is the nation’s ninth-largest bank by total assets, with 259 physical branch locations, 55 “Capital One Cafes” across the country and a major online banking operation. Discover Financial, based in Riverwoods, Illinois, is a mostly online bank with a single physical branch in Delaware. The all-stock deal is valued at $35.3 billion.
See the best Capital One cards
Capital One has cards for earning rewards and cards for building credit. Some even do both.
Is Discover on board?
Michael Rhodes, CEO and president of Discover, touted the deal in Capital One’s press release: “The transaction with Capital One brings together two strong brands with enhanced ability to accelerate growth and maximizes value for our shareholders, enabling them to participate in the tremendous upside of the combined company.”
What happens next?
Bank mergers must be approved by bank regulators and by shareholders of each company. If the deal goes through, Capital One estimates that it will close in late 2024 or early 2025.
What would it mean for customers?
During the approval process, little is expected to change as the companies continue to operate independently. Even if the deal is approved, though, current customers may see little effect.
“I think it’s not going to be a big change for credit card customers,” says David Robertson, editor and owner of the Nilson Report, a payment card industry trade journal. Discover cards, he says, are primarily cash-back cards, while Capital One offers a variety of rewards cards. A merger, Robinson says, “might allow for better rewards programs for both companies.”
While the Wall Street Journal reported that Capital One plans to keep the Discover name on at least some cards, details have not been confirmed by either company. Likewise, there is no detail yet on how banking customers will be affected.
Why merge?
Item no. 1: Discover’s payment network.
Transactions on Capital One cards are processed over the Visa and Mastercard payment networks. Discover, however, operates its own network, making it both a card issuer and a payment processor, similar to American Express. Robertson says acquiring a payment network and building direct relationships with more merchants is likely a driving factor in Capital One’s acquisition, which puts a 26.9% premium on Discover’s Feb. 16 closing stock price.
”From Capital One’s founding days, we set out to build a payments and banking company powered by modern technology,” Richard Fairbank, founder and CEO of Capital One, said in the news release. “Our acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity to bring together two very successful companies with complementary capabilities and franchises, and to build a payments network that can compete with the largest payments networks and payments companies.”
In addition, Robertson notes, there is not a great deal of overlap between the two banks’ customer bases. “One would assume that everyone that has a Discover Card also has a Visa or MasterCard,” he says. “Capital One may get access to that spending.”
Capital One is the fourth largest credit card issuer in the United States by loan volume; Discover is ranked sixth, according to Nilson Report data. Combined, they would nudge ahead of Chase to become the largest card issuer.
Sheer economy of scale is another factor. “Should [the merger] occur, Capital One would be the largest credit card issuer” as measured by outstanding debt, says Robertson.
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Average mortgage rates climbed appreciably yesterday, taking them to their highest level in a couple of months. Two different inflation reports were behind last week’s damage.
Mortgage rates might move a little lower next week. That is more of a hope than an expectation. And I’m basing it on nothing more than that little is scheduled for the next seven days, and markets might decide they went too far on Friday. Such delayed reactions happen quite often after sharp movements.
Markets are closed next Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday. And this should mean mortgage rates won’t move that day. So, the usual daily edition of this report won’t appear.
Find and lock a low rate
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.31%
7.32%
+0.06
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.61%
6.64%
+0.02
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.16%
7.19%
+0.09
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.49%
6.52%
+0.06
30-year fixed FHA
6.52%
7.2%
+0.07
30-year fixed VA
6.62%
6.73%
-0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.15%
7.33%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
I think there is a strong possibility that this week’s poor inflation reports have delayed my hoped-for downward trend in mortgage rates. And we now may have to wait for it to fully establish itself until May, June or even later.
This is beyond disappointing and means I’ve changed my personal rate lock recommendations to:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
This week
Both this week’s consequential inflation reports showed prices rising more quickly than markets were expecting. And mortgage rates moved higher in response.
That was partly because the bond investors who largely determine mortgage rates hate inflation. But it’s also because markets know that higher prices are likely to delay the Federal Reserve’s first cut in general interest rates and may mean fewer subsequent cuts this year.
Mortgage rates probably won’t move lower in a sustained way until Wall Street is confident that the Fed is set to cut general interest rates imminently. And we may well now have to wait until the summer for that level of confidence.
Of course, I can’t guarantee that mortgage rates will fall at all this year. But I think improvements in the second half of this year are currently the most likely scenario for 2024.
Economic reports next week
We’ve had enough excitement recently and are due a dull week. And, sure enough, we’re about to get one.
The only day on which reports are likely to move mortgage rates is Thursday. And that’s just a couple of February purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P.
PMIs certainly can affect mortgage rates, though rarely appreciably. And I’ll be shocked if next week’s reports more than tweak them.
The only other reports next week are leading economic indicators on Tuesday, and initial weekly jobless claims and existing home sales, both on Thursday. Again, the market that determines mortgage rates typically shrugs these off.
The Fed next week
The Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting committee next Wednesday afternoon. We already know a lot of what was said from the news conference that was hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell immediately after the meeting. And much has changed since then, meaning the minutes have already been overtaken by events.
But investors always pore over these minutes in the hope of gleaning some new insights. And mortgage rates may move if they find anything actionable. I doubt they will, but let’s hope that anything they do uncover pushes those rates lower.
Seven senior Fed officials have speaking engagements next week. And their remarks have the potential to affect mortgage rates.
Whether their speeches are good or bad for those rates will depend on what they say. Ideally, we’d like most of them to talk up a May cut in general interest rates. But that may be wishful thinking.
Besides economic reports and Fed activity, our best hope for lower mortgage rates over the next seven days is a calming in market sentiment. I’m hoping investors will reflect on the current position and feel they overreacted to last week’s inflation reports. Such bounce downs are common after sharp rises but far from inevitable.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Monday — Markets closed for Presidents’ Day holiday
Tuesday — January leading economic indicators
Wednesday — Fed minutes
Thursday — February PMIs for the services and manufacturing sectors from S&P. Also January existing home sales. Plus initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 17
Friday — Nothing scheduled
We’re in for a quiet week for economic reports. But mortgage rates could still move on any day except Monday.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
Mortgage rates might edge lower next week. I think the chances of that are better than further rises. But only slightly better. So, don’t bank on anything.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
Interest — The price of borrowing
Taxes — Specifically property taxes
Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
The US housing market should experience a warm return this spring, thanks to calming economic data.
The average rate for a 30-year loan declined to 6.63% from 6.69% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac on Thursday. Mortgage rates dropped for the second time in 2024 and are expected to retreat further as inflation moderates, which could help spark a housing rebound.
As most indicators point to interest rate cuts this coming year, housing experts are predicting a busier spring buying season starting in the next couple of months as more supply and demand return to the housing market thanks to the mortgage rate drop.
“So long as core inflation and economic activity continue to moderate, mortgage rates aren’t expected to rise further,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow. “If layoffs remain low, and mortgage rates ease, housing market activity should rebound modestly this spring — meaning more listings coming on the market and more sales.”
Read more: Mortgage rates below 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Mortgage applications fall
The likelihood of a bustling spring housing market will depend heavily on where mortgage rates head next. Homebuyers have proven again they are rate-sensitive amidst today’s elevated home prices. After last week’s slight rate increase, the volume of mortgage application activity retracted 7.2% on a weekly basis, according to an application survey tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for the week ending Jan. 26.
“Low existing housing supply is limiting options for prospective buyers and is keeping home price growth elevated, resulting in a one-two punch that continues to constrain home purchase activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist.
Affordability challenges also worsened due to last week’s rate bump. The average loan size for purchase applications increased to $444,100, the largest since May 2022, according to the MBA.
Low application rates and hardship don’t mean homebuyers have disappeared, though. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index — measuring buyers’ requests for home tours and other buying services on Redfin — showed that interest increased 6% over the last seven days in the week ending Jan. 28.
“I believe this year’s market will launch in the spring, once 6% rates are even more entrenched in buyers’ psyches, and more homeowners list their houses,” said Hal Bennett, a Redfin Premier agent.
Wall Street banks and industry experts expect cuts. Wells Fargo said in its 2024 annual outlook that the economy will moderate by mid-2024, prompting the Fed to cut rates by 225 basis points by early 2025. Housing experts at Fannie Mae are predicting mortgage rates will decline below 6% by the end of 2024, leveling off at about 5.8%.
During yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed announced it is keeping its benchmark rate steady in an effort to suppress inflation to 2%. Even so, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed optimism that rates have peaked and a cut could come soon. But any drop is not a guarantee.
“Inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain,” Powell said during the FOMC conference.
Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement — increased 2.6% annually in December, falling below 3% for the first time since March 2021. More importantly, though, is that an annualized PCE using data from the prior three to six months is now below 2%.
“The lower inflation readings over the second half of last year are welcome,” Powell added, “but we will need to see continuing evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal.”
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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Home » Credit » 6 Ways to Help Your Child Build Credit During College
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College students have a lot on their plate already, including the need to study to get good grades, participating in any number of on-campus activities and potentially working part-time to have some spending money.
That said, college students should also focus on their financial future, including steps they can take to build credit before they enter the workforce.
After all, having a credit history and a good credit score can mean being able to rent an apartment, finance a car or take out a loan, whereas having no credit at all can mean sitting on the sidelines until the situation changes.
Fortunately, there are all kinds of ways for young adults to build credit while they’re still in school. Some strategies require a little work on their part, but many are hands-off tasks that you only have to do once.
Teach Them Credit-Building Basics
Make sure your student knows the basic cornerstones of credit building, including the factors that are used to determine credit scores. While factors like new credit, length of credit history and credit mix will play a role in their credit later on, the two most important issues for credit newcomers to focus on include payment history and credit utilization.
Payment history makes up 35% of FICO scores and credit utilization ratio makes up 30% of scores.
Generally speaking, college students and everyone else can score well in these categories by making all bill payments on time and keeping debt levels low. How low?
Most experts recommend keeping credit utilization below 30% at a maximum and below 10% for the best possible results. This means trying to owe less than $300 for every $1,000 in available credit limits at a maximum, but preferably less than $100 for every $1,000 in credit limits.
Add Your Child as an Authorized User
One step you can personally take to help a child build credit is adding them to your credit card account as an authorized user. This means they will get a credit card in their name and access to your spending limit, but you are legally responsible for any charges they make. Obviously, this move works best when you have excellent credit and a strong history of on-time payments and you plan to continue using credit responsibly .
While this step can be risky if you’re worried your college student will use their card to overspend, you don’t actually have to give them their physical authorized user credit card.
In fact, they can get credit for your on-time payments whether they have access to a card or not. If you do decide to give them their credit card, you can do so with the agreement they can only use it for emergency expenses.
Encourage Them to Get a Secured Credit Card
Your child can build credit faster if they apply for a credit card and get approved for one on their own, yet this can be difficult for students who have no credit history. That said, secured credit cards require a refundable cash deposit as collateral are very easy to get approved for.
Some secured credit cards like the Ambition Card by College Ave even offer cash back1 on every purchase and don’t charge interest2. If your child opts to start building credit with a secured credit card, make sure they understand the best ways to build credit quickly — keeping credit utilization low and paying bills early or on time each month.
Opt for a Student Credit Card Instead
While secured credit cards are a good option for students with little to no credit get started on their journey to good credit, there are also credit cards specifically designed for college students. Student credit cards are unsecured cards, meaning they don’t require an upfront cash deposit as collateral, but charge interest on any purchases not paid in full each month.
Many student credit cards offer rewards for spending with no annual fee required as well, although these cards do tend to come with a high APR. The key to getting the most out of a student credit card is having your dependent use it only for purchases they can afford and paying off the balance in its entirety each billing cycle. After all, sky high interest rates don’t really matter when you never carry a balance from one month to the next.
Student Credit Cards…
“One of the safest ways for college student to build their credit by learning valuable money skills.”
Help Your Child Get Credit for Other Bill Payments
While secured cards and student credit cards help young adults build credit with each bill payment they make, other payments they’re making can also help.
In fact, using an app like Experian Boost can help them get credit for utility bills they’re paying, subscriptions they pay for and even rent payments they’re making. This app is also free to use, and you only have to set up most bill payments in the app once to have them reported to the credit bureaus.
There are also rent-specific apps and tools students can use to get credit for rent payments, although they come with fees. Examples include websites like Rental Kharma and RentReporters.
Make Interest-Only Payments On Student Loans
The Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) also notes that students can start building credit with their student loans during school, even if they’re not officially required to make payments until six months after graduation with federal student loans.
Their advice is to make interest-only payments on federal student loans along with payments on any private student loans they have during college in order to start having those payments reported to the credit bureaus as soon as possible.
“Making interest-only payments as a student will not only positively affect your credit history but will also keep the interest from capitalizing and adding to your student loan balance,” the agency writes.
Of course, interest capitalization on loans would only be an issue with private student loans and Federal Direct Unsubsidized Loans since the U.S. Department of Education pays the interest on Direct Subsidized Loans while you’re in school at least half-time, for six months after you graduate and during periods of deferment.
The Bottom Line
College students don’t have to wait until they’re done with school to start building credit for the future, and it makes sense to start building positive credit habits early on regardless. Tools like a credit card can help students on their way, whether they opt for a secured credit card or a student card. Other steps like using credit-building apps can also help, and with little effort on the student’s part or on yours.
Either way, the best time to start building credit was a few years ago, and the second best time is now. You can give your student a leg up on the future by helping them build credit so it’s there when they need it.
20% APR. Account is subject to a monthly account fee of $2, account fee is waived for the initial six-monthly billing cycles.
College Ave is not a bank. Banking services provided by, and the College Ave Mastercard Charge Card is issued by Evolve Bank & Trust, Member FDIC pursuant to a license from Mastercard International Incorporated. Mastercard and the Mastercard Brand Mark are registered trademarks of Mastercard International Incorporated.
About the Author
Jeff Rose, CFP® is a Certified Financial Planner™, founder of Good Financial Cents, and author of the personal finance book Soldier of Finance. He was a financial planner for 16+ years having founded, Alliance Wealth Management, a SEC Registered Investment Advisory firm, before selling it to focus on his passion – educating the masses on the importance of financial freedom through this blog, his podcast, and YouTube channel.
Jeff holds a Bachelors in Science in Finance and minor in Accounting from Southern Illinois University – Carbondale. In addition to his CFP® designation, he also earned the marks of AAMS® – Accredited Asset Management Specialist – and CRPC® – Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor.
While a practicing financial advisor, Jeff was named to Investopedia’s distinguished list of Top 100 advisors (as high as #6) multiple times and CNBC’s Digital Advisory Council.
Jeff is an Iraqi combat veteran and served 9 years in the Army National Guard. His work is regularly featured in Forbes, Business Insider, Inc.com and Entrepreneur.