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Mortgage rates drifted higher this week, and could increase further, in a sign that America’s affordability crisis isn’t letting up.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.88% in the week ending April 11, up from 6.82% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. A year ago, the average 30-year fixed-rate was 6.27%.
Rates have mostly held steady in the past several weeks, but they could rise even higher, potentially crossing the uncomfortable psychological threshold of 7%, if inflation proves to be more stubborn than expected.
The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and hotter-than-expected inflation readings could keep the central bank from reducing interest rates.
“Mortgage rates have been drifting higher for most of the year due to sustained inflation and the reevaluation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a release. “While newly released inflation data from March continues to show a trend of very little movement, the financial market’s reaction paints a far different economic picture.”
Mortgage rates track the benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s decisions. The yield topped 4.5% Wednesday, the highest level since November, after the latest Consumer Price Index showed persistent price pressures in March. That doesn’t bode well for lower mortgage rates, and economists don’t expect rates to fall below 6% this year, especially if the Fed does not end up cutting interest rates.
But, for now, officials are still expecting to cut rates at some point this year, though that may happen later than previously expected. That could help alleviate some pressure in the country’s tough housing market.
Mortgage rates are not expected to drop meaningfully this year, but further improvement in housing inventory could improve affordability. The National Association of Realtors said that more homes came to market in February, which helped drive up sales that month.
Homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to lift rates in 2022 have largely preferred not to sell in recent years, contributing to historically low inventory. That may be starting to change.
Total housing inventory rose 5.9% in February from January, to 1.07 million units. Inventory was up 10.3% in February from a year earlier, giving buyers more choices and helping ease some upward pressure on prices.
A lack of homes has been a longstanding issue keeping America’s housing market unaffordable and is especially frustrating for first-time buyers. President Joe Biden has laid out proposals to fix the housing market, such as tax credits and homebuilding initiatives but, even if they receive congressional approval, it’s unclear whether that will be enough.
Despite recent improvements, and even if the Fed does cut rates, as it has indicated, the main issue continues to be that supply simply is not keeping up with demand, keeping a home purchase out of reach for the vast majority of Americans.
Source: cnn.com
There is nothing good to report on mortgage rates from last week. The chart below shows that we broke the critical technical level on the 10-year yield (marked with a red line). The CPI data, which the Federal Reserve doesn’t track for its 2% target, came in 0.1% hotter than estimates, but that was good enough to take one mortgage rate cut off the table for now. I talked about this last week on the HousingWire Daily podcast.
Now that this technical level has been broken, 2024 is going to be a lot more interesting, something I discussed in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Now, with the specter of a wider war in the Middle East as Iran launches strikes against Israel, what will the bond market do? Some will say that bonds rallied ahead of the pending war news on Friday, but we will get a better answer Sunday night with bond market trading.
One positive thing for mortgage rates is that spreads between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year yield are improving. I believe these spreads became one of the bigger mortgage stories, as the banking crisis sent the spreads to new cycle highs. This data line is improving and for now, it mitigates the damage done by the higher 10-year yield.
Of course, if the spreads get better from here and bond yields fall again, then mortgage rates can act much better on the downside. This is something to watch for in the future.
Things are hapenning fast with mortgage rates, which is why I update HousingWire’s Mortgage Rate Center page with analysis every weekday morning — looking at how the bond market reacts to economic data or an event that can move rates.
Usually, I would jump for joy at last week’s inventory growth. However, last week’s numbers don’t get a passing grade: The rebound impact of Easter boosted last week’s inventory data, just like it caused the inventory data to decline in the previous week.
One item to note for this year is the year-over-year comparisons on active inventory. Inventory bottomed out on April 14 last year, which was the longest time it took for the housing market to find a seasonal bottom ever. From now to the end of the year, the easy comps to show inventory growth are over. It will get more challenging to show more growth unless inventory starts to pick up, especially toward the end of 2024. However, with higher mortgage rates, we should see more inventory growth.
It’s the same story with the new listing data; we got a nice snap-back from Easter. I am a big fan of the inventory growing year over year based on new listing data, and this is a big plus for the housing market. I had anticipated more growth, but as long as we are showing some growth this year, I will take that as a victory. Last year, it was savagely unhealthy that new listings data was trending at the lowest recorded levels.
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
This price-cut data line is critical to track now as inventory growth picks up for spring and mortgage rates have increased since the start of the year. Higher mortgage rates mean higher inventory growth and more price cuts, which keeps the model simple.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
Purchase applications dropped last week, down 5% week to week, but they showed a significant 23% decline year over year. The Easter holiday year-over-year comps have played a bit into this data line. We saw an excellent rebound in our pending contracts data last week and the inventory growth data from week to week. Now that Easter is out of the mix, we can move ahead on the week-to-week and year-over-year data with some more clarity.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 10 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
Do mortgage rates move with war news? Yes, they often do. Some speculate that in a war, money goes into the bond market as a flight to safety, pushing rates lower. However, war can also lead to higher inflation and higher mortgage rates. I discussed the economics of conflicts tied to mortgage rates as a premise for double-digit mortgage rates on this recent HousingWire Daily podcast.
This week, we will see how the bond and stock markets react to the news from the Middle East. We will also get retail sales numbers, which have been holding up better than most had anticipated for some time now. Also, we’ll get a ton of housing data, including the builders confidence, housing starts and existing home sales.
Source: housingwire.com
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Product | Rate | Last week | Change |
---|---|---|---|
30-year fixed | 6.91% | 6.91% | -0.00 |
15-year fixed | 6.36% | 6.42% | -0.06 |
10-year fixed | 6.27% | 6.38% | -0.10 |
5/1 ARM | 6.61% | 6.63% | -0.02 |
30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.00% | 7.02% | -0.02 |
30-year mortgage refinance rate | 6.96% | 6.92% | +0.04 |
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of April 3, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Over the last few years, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed up mortgage rates from their record lows around the pandemic. Since last summer, the Fed has consistently kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Though the central bank doesn’t directly set the rates for mortgages, a high federal funds rate makes borrowing more expensive, including for home loans.
Mortgage rates change daily, but average rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7.5% since late last fall. Today’s homebuyers have less room in their budget to afford the cost of a home due to elevated mortgage rates and steep home prices. Limited housing inventory and low wage growth are also contributing to the affordability crisis and keeping mortgage demand down.
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates. Most economists predict that the Fed will start lowering interest rates later this summer.
Since mortgage rates fluctuate for many reasons — supply, demand, inflation, monetary policy and jobs data — homebuyers won’t see lower rates overnight, and it’s unlikely they’ll find rates in the 2% range again.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
The average interest rate for a standard 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.91%, which is a decline of 0 basis point compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.36%, which is a decrease of 6 basis points from seven days ago. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 6.61%, a decrease of 2 basis points compared to a week ago. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Source: cnet.com
Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage loans refinancing declined for the week ending March 22, contributing to a drop in home loans applications even as interest rates decelerated, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.
The Refinance Index fell 2 percent from the prior week and was 9 percent lower compared to a year ago. Overall, mortgage applications dropped by 0.7 percent at a time when the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked down to 6.93 percent from the prior week’s 6.97 percent.
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
Read more: What is Mortgage Refinancing and How Does It Work?
The drop in refinancing applications comes as the housing market has been in flux nationwide.
Borrowing costs for home loans jumped to their highest since the turn of the century last year, peaking at about 8 percent in the fall. That jump in mortgage rates was sparked by the Federal Reserve hiking rates to their highest in more than two decades as policymakers moved to tighten financial conditions to battle soaring inflation. Expectations that the central bank will start lowering those rates has helped bring mortgage rates down.
Recent data suggests that buyers are still looking for lower borrowing costs. New home sales declined in February, amid high mortgage rates that economists say depressed activity as the housing market enters its busy Spring season.
Kan said on Wednesday that still elevated mortgage rates are still keeping buyers on the sidelines.
“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market,” he noted.
Kan suggest limited housing inventory is also proving to be a hindrance to the market.
“Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6-percent by the end of the year,” he said. “Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Read more: Best Mortgage Lenders
The lock-in effect was particularly acute in the existing homes market. Most homeowners have low mortgage rates which has discouraged them from putting their properties in the market if that means they may have to acquire a new home with borrowing costs closer to 7 percent. About 90 percent of homeowners own mortgages that are under 6 percent, according to real estate platform Redfin.
There have been some signs recently that the existing homes market is recovering after struggling mightily last year.
In February, sales of previously owned homes rose by nearly 10 percent.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
Now that we are right in the middle of the spring buying season, my inventory model is simple: with higher mortgage rates, just like last year, we should be able to grow weekly active inventory between 11,000 – 17,000 on some weeks. Unfortunately, I batted a whopping zero last year since inventory growth never hit that level for even one week — even when mortgage rates hit 8%. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, which is my peak rate forecast.
While I am thrilled that new listings data is growing year over year, something I have been anticipating for some time, the growth in 2024 has been disappointing because I had expected a bit more by now. This was my big talking point on CNBC earlier in the year. Still, new listing data is a positive story. Here are the number of new listings for last week over the last several years:
For context, new listings data at this time in 2010 ran at 326,266.
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates increase and demand gets hit.
As inventory and demand grow year over year, the price-cut percentage data increases year over year. So, we will keep tracking this data line to see how high it goes this year. We keep it simple: higher inventory softness in demand means price growth is weakening. As we can see below, the year-over-year data is showing a higher percentage of price cuts.
For those of you who have followed me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work and therefore for the mortgage rate discussion. A break above this level would send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8%. So far, so good here.
We had the PCE inflation report come out Friday and because some people were expecting a hotter number than estimates, it was perceived to be bullish for rate cuts. However, the markets were closed Friday, so we have to wait and see how trading goes on Monday. The 10-year yield channel is between 4.25%-3.80%, which looks correct as long as the economic data stays firm and jobless claims don’t break higher. This means mortgage rates will likely remain in the upper range of my 2024 forecast of 6.75%-7.25%.
There was not too much action in mortgage rates last week, but with jobs week coming up, we could see some movement. As you can see below, the 10-year yield has made a massive move from 2022 and has stayed above 4%, even with the progress we have made with inflation. Always remember, when it comes to discussions about rates and the Fed pivoting, it’s always labor over inflation data.
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 15% year over year.
Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and one flat print. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints and one flat print.
What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? Purchase apps made a solid positive run up until mortgage rates started to get back over 7%. This was similar to 2023 data, when purchase apps had 12 weeks of a positive run-up until rates moved toward 7% and then 8%.
First, the trading on Monday will be exciting because of the PCE inflation report; some argue it was hot and some say it wasn’t. The market decides this, and bond trading will judge it on Monday morning.
Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell talked on Friday. I believe Powell’s crucial comment was that the Fed won’t overreact to significant disinflation or heated inflation reports. I think some people missed this. If you want to understand why the markets still have three rate cuts priced in, it’s this mindset.
Then it’s jobs week, with four labor reports, and, of course, for me, it’s labor over inflation data, so buckle up!
Want more context? On the PowerHouse podcast with HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins, I discussed why the data lines we look at in the Housing Market Tracker are so critical for those in the housing industry.
Source: housingwire.com
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After watching mortgage rates hit two-decade highs and inventory plummet last year, many hopeful homebuyers are eager to get off the sidelines and into a home.
While 2024 is expected to be a better year for the housing market in many respects, a lot of buyers are still going to struggle to find affordability. If you’re planning to buy a house this year, here’s what you need to know about housing market predictions in 2024, and how you can prepare.
Experts generally expect home prices to increase in 2024.
Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up, even as mortgage rates peaked near 8% and homebuying demand plummeted last year. Demand is expected to increase this year, so even if home prices were to drop in 2024, they likely wouldn’t fall enough to significantly improve affordability on their own.
Here’s where we’ll probably find more affordability in 2024: mortgage rates. Though they’re still relatively high, experts predict we’ll see mortgage rates go down in 2024. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is generally expected to end up near 6% by the end of the year.
Whether mortgage rates actually trend down in 2024, and by how much, depends in part on the path the Federal Reserve takes in its fight against inflation.
The Fed has indicated that it may start cutting the federal funds rate this year, which would remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to fall more substantially. But inflation has remained a bit higher than expected in recent months, so we might have to wait longer for a Fed rate cut. This means mortgage rates might not fall in time for the peak homebuying season.
Because home prices have increased so dramatically in recent years, doomsayers believe that the housing market is in a bubble, and it’s only a matter of time before it bursts and the market crashes. But it’s actually pretty unlikely that will happen.
One of the main reasons we’re unlikely to see the housing market crash in 2024 has to do with housing inventory. The US simply does not have enough homes to meet demand, which is keeping prices steady.
Of course, no one has a crystal ball. If demand were to plummet, home prices could start falling. A severe recession could cause this to happen, for example. But even with a recession, it’s not a given that the housing market would crash as a result.
The fact is, it’s hard to predict a housing market crash. Right now, the conditions aren’t right for one — even though demand is low, supply remains even lower. And demand is expected to improve this year, while supply will likely remain a chronic problem for years to come.
If you’re hoping to buy a house this year, you’ll want to start planning now. This year is likely to be better for buyers than 2023 was in many ways, but it’s also going to be more challenging when it comes to prices and competition.
Lower mortgage rates will undoubtedly improve affordability for borrowers, but with that will come increased demand. This will keep home prices high and likely push them up even further. Finding a home in your price range may become even trickier, and you may need to make a lot of offers on homes before you get one accepted.
Here’s what you should be doing now to prepare for homeownership in 2024.
Because home prices are likely to remain high, you’ll want to take advantage of lower mortgage rates by making sure you get the lowest rate you can.
One of the faster methods to get your credit score up is to lower your credit utilization. This will also decrease your debt-to-income ratio, which is another factor mortgage lenders look at when considering what rate to give you.
J.R. Russell, head of direct to consumer mortgage lending at Citi Mortgages, says homebuyers should consider paying off credit card balances to improve their scores ahead of the 2024 homebuying season.
“If you’re trying to pay off or pay down some credit cards, start with the cards or credit lines with the highest interest rates first,” Russell says. “Then, pay off the balances that are smallest. The good news is that if you do this, you’ll improve your debt load and your credit score.”
The key to affording homeownership for many buyers in 2024 will be utilizing mortgages geared toward first-time homebuyers and combining them with grants or other forms of down payment assistance.
“If you’re not sure that your down payment will be sufficient, take time to understand all of the available products that you may be eligible for through the FHA or VA, your bank, or other local institutions,” Russell says. “These programs may grant you access to down payment assistance and low-to-moderate income programs, among other game-changing resources.”
Conventional loans allow down payments as low as 3%, while FHA loans allow 3.5% down payments. USDA and VA loans allow no down payment.
Look into lenders that offer special mortgage programs that come with additional assistance. Rocket Mortgage, for example, offers a ONE+ mortgage that allows borrowers to put down just 1%, with the lender providing a 2% grant.
Bank of America mortgages, another popular lender for first-time buyers, offers a couple of different forms of down payment assistance.
There probably won’t be a single “best time” to buy in 2024, because that depends on each buyer’s priorities — so it’s important that you figure out yours.
If getting the lowest rate possible is most important to you, you’ll want to wait until later this year to buy, possibly until the second half of 2024. But if you’re looking to avoid competition, buying within the next few months might be a better bet. Plus, you could always plan to refinance later on as rates drop.
“If rates do start to moderate and the market does seem to become more favorable to buying in 2024, it will likely stay this way for a while,” Russell says. “If that’s the case, I encourage you to take your time! Don’t put pressure on yourself to make any potentially hasty decisions on what may be your biggest asset and the largest financial decision of your life.”
Though it’s still a while away, forecasts generally expect mortgage rates to continue falling in 2025. If you don’t feel ready to buy by the time the 2024 buying season rolls around, there’s nothing wrong with waiting a bit to continue saving and working on your credit.
Whether you’re padding your mortgage down payment savings or contributing to your emergency fund, tucking away some extra cash now is vital if you plan on buying a home soon.
When you buy a house, you’ll need enough cash to cover both your down payment and closing costs, which can amount to between 3% and 6% of the loan amount. While many mortgage programs allow low down payments, the more you can put down, the better your interest rate will likely be. Plus, offers with larger down payments are often more attractive to home sellers, giving you a competitive edge in what will likely be a tough market.
Homeownership is also often more expensive than many first-time buyers realize, especially in the first year. Having some extra money set aside for unexpected costs will help ensure you don’t go into debt when your first big housing expense comes along.
Experts expect mortgage rates to drop in 2024, and 30-year fixed rates could end the year closer to 6%.
There probably won’t be a housing recession in 2024 based on current expectations, as limited inventory is likely to push prices up further. Expect to see higher prices, lower mortgage rates, and more buyers in 2024.
In general, 2024 should be a better year to buy a house compared to 2023, but it will still be tough due to increased competition and higher prices.
Source: businessinsider.com
Mortgage demand remained subdued for the second consecutive week despite slightly lower mortgage rates.
Mortgage applications decreased by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ending March 22, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey.
“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement. “Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6% by the end of the year. Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Both purchase and refinance activity decreased during the week. Purchase loan application volume dropped by 0.2% from one week earlier. Meanwhile, refinance volume fell by 2% from the prior week.
As of Wednesday, the 30-year fixed rate on HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center stood at 7.16%.
The MBA survey shows that the average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed loans with conforming balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.93%, down from 6.97% last week. Meanwhile, rates on jumbo loans (balances greater than $766,550) remained unchanged week over week at 7.14%.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) share of total applications decreased to 12% last week, down from 12.1% the week before. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) share fell to 12%, down from 12.1% the week before. And the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) share remained unchanged at 0.5%.
The MBA survey, conducted weekly since 1990, covers more than 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Source: housingwire.com
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Loan term | Today’s Rate | Last week | Change |
---|---|---|---|
30-year mortgage rate | 6.98% | 6.88% | +0.10 |
15-year fixed rate | 6.47% | 6.41% | +0.06 |
10-year fixed | 6.40% | 6.26% | +0.14 |
5/1 ARM | 6.51% | 6.38% | +0.13 |
30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.09% | 6.98% | +0.11 |
30-year mortgage refinance rate | 6.99% | 6.87% | +0.12 |
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of March 25, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Over the last few years, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed up mortgage rates from their record lows around the pandemic. Since last summer, the Fed has consistently kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Though the central bank doesn’t directly set the rates for mortgages, a high federal funds rate makes borrowing more expensive, including for home loans.
Mortgage rates change daily, but average rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7.5% since late last fall. Today’s homebuyers have less room in their budget to afford the cost of a home due to elevated mortgage rates and steep home prices. Limited housing inventory and low wage growth are also contributing to the affordability crisis and keeping mortgage demand down.
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates. Most economists predict that the Fed will start lowering interest rates later this summer.
Since mortgage rates fluctuate for many reasons — supply, demand, inflation, monetary policy and jobs data — homebuyers won’t see lower rates overnight, and it’s unlikely they’ll find rates in the 2% range again.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate average is 6.98%, which is a growth of 10 basis points from one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.47%, which is an increase of 6 basis points from seven days ago. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 6.51%, an uptick of 13 basis points compared to last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Source: cnet.com
Mortgage rates rose this week as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note inched up. As of Monday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was about 4.25%, according to Tradeweb, up from 3.86% at the end of last year.
As a result, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.16% on Tuesday, up from 7.07% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.53%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.51% on Tuesday, up from 6.5% one week earlier.
“The 10-year yield is up a few basis points this week as the market gets ready to digest the next big piece of economic data: Friday’s PCE inflation report. As the 10-year yield moves higher, mortgage pricing should move with it, but the mortgage spreads are having a good week, which is encouraging news,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said.
“The following week, we have jobs week with four economic labor reports for the bond market to focus on.”
As of March 22, there were 513,000 single-family homes unsold on the market, up 1.1% from the week prior and up 24% from the same week one year ago. At the same period last year, inventory was declining, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
“We’ll finish the year with over 600,000 homes on the market unless rates reverse and fall quickly,” Simonsen wrote on Monday.
More inventory on the market means that more sales can take place. But, on the other hand, it can also mean that demand is weakening.
“The longer mortgage rates stay higher, the more inventory will grow closer to the old levels,” Simonsen wrote. “If you’re a homebuyer and you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you swoop in for a deal, recognize that even slightly lower rates will spur demand more than supply so inventory will start falling and selection and competition will be worse.”
Source: housingwire.com