Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
The recent rise of the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate, which poses a new obstacle to aspiring homeowners hoping to purchase a property during this homebuying season, could have dramatic consequences on the country’s housing market.
The national weekly average for 30-year mortgages, the most popular in the nation, was 6.88 percent as of April 11, according to data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., better known as Freddie Mac. That was 0.06 of a percentage point higher than a week before and up 0.61 compared to a year before. The national average for 15-year mortgages was 6.16 percent, up 0.1 of a percentage point compared to the previous week and 0.62 compared to a year before.
Read more: How to Get a Mortgage
On Monday, experts monitoring mortgage rates on a daily basis noted that the national average for 30-year fixed mortgages reached 7.44 percent—the highest they’ve been so far this year and close to the 23-year weekly record of 7.79 percent reached on October 25, 2023. On Monday, the 15-year mortgage rate was 6.85 percent. At its peak on October 25, 2023, it had reached 7.03 percent.
“Big one-day jump,” commented journalist Lance Lambert on X, formerly known as Twitter. “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticks up to 7.44 percent. New high for 2024.”
The rise in mortgage rates comes as homebuying season, a time when the number of homes listed for sale increases, is heating up. This climb in inventory starts in spring and normally peaks in summer before declining as the weather gets colder, marking one of the busiest times of the year for home sales. But higher mortgage rates could have an early chilling effect on the market.
Read more: Compare Top Mortgage Lenders
The median monthly U.S. housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,747 during the four weeks ending April 7, up 11 percent from a year earlier, according to a report from real estate brokerage Redfin last week. It noted that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, then at 6.82 percent, was more than double pandemic-era lows.
There’s not much hope that mortgage rates will come down soon, as the U.S. Labor Department said last week that inflation has risen faster than expected last month, at 3.5 percent over the 12 months to March. That was up from 3.2 percent in February.
“For homebuyers, the latest CPI [consumer price index] report means mortgage rates will stay higher for longer because it makes the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Housing costs are likely to continue going up for the near future, but persistently high mortgage rates and rising supply could cool home-price growth by the end of the year, taking some pressure off costs.”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, voiced concern last week over “persistent inflationary pressures” and said the bank was prepared for “a very broad range of interest rates, from 2 percent to 8 percent or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes.”
While the jump in mortgage rates appears modest, it makes a huge difference for borrowers, who might end up paying hundreds of dollars a month more on top of what’s already one of the most significant expenses in their lives.
Many might decide that they can’t afford to buy a home—which is what happened when mortgage rates suddenly skyrocketed between late 2022 and early 2023 as a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate-hiking campaign.
Between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, a drop in demand caused by the unaffordability of buying a home led to a modest price correction of the housing market. But prices have since climbed back due to the combination of pent-up demand and historic low inventory.
While the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, these are hugely influenced by the central bank’s decision to hike or cut interest rates. The Fed left rates unchanged in March and is considered unlikely to cut them this month considering the latest data on inflation.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that’s come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This week’s data was more of an afterthought compared to last week’s.
The chart above pertains to Fed rate expectations, and that’s not exactly the same as longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields. The latter saw a bit more volatility this week.
Monday’s Retail Sales data was much stronger than expected and markets reacted immediately. Tuesday’s data was consequential, but it was followed by a speech in which Fed Chair Powell had an opportunity to provide some updated thoughts on the rate outlook. After all, the Fed hadn’t seen the most recent CPI data (and several other strong reports) at the time the last round of rate projections came out in March.
As the market expected, the tone is evolving. While Powell and the Fed repeat that the rate path depends on economic data, it’s no surprise to see recent comments acknowledging a surprising amount of strength in the recent data. Stronger data means fewer rate cuts. Powell went as far as saying there was new uncertainty as to whether the Fed will even be able to cut in 2024.
Two days later, NY Fed President John Williams struck similar tone. Just last week, he had pushed back on the CPI data, saying the Fed wasn’t surprised by setbacks in the inflation data. This week’s comments did more to acknowledge the other side of data dependency. Specifically, Williams said the Fed could hike again if the data called for it.
To be sure, these are not earth-shattering “ifs” and “thens.” But the market hones in on the subtle differences with which the data dependency is communicated. It didn’t help that Thursday morning’s Philly Fed Manufacturing Index moved up to the highest levels in 2 years or that the “prices paid” component of the same report moved up much more than economists expected.
Here’s how the entire week looked in terms of 10yr Treasury yields.
Friday’s reaction to the attacks in Iran is important because it shows us that some geopolitical news is indeed worth a reaction. That was less clear earlier in the week as multiple batches of somewhat similar headlines failed to cause as much movement. The difference on Friday was the uncertainty over the status of Iran’s nuclear sites as well as concern that it would be the catalyst for the outbreak of much more significant fighting. The market calmed down quite quickly once it was clear the nuclear sites were not damaged and that Iran was not retaliating. The correlation between stock prices and bond yields further confirms the “flight to safety” trading pattern commonly seen after such news.
In the bigger picture, the past 2 weeks have gone a long way toward making the end of 2023 look like yet another “false start” toward lower rates. Up until then, we had sort of a sideways fighting chance. While we have labeled late 2023 as the 3rd false start of this cycle, it wouldn’t meet the purest definition until rates rise back above last October’s highs. We’re definitely not there yet and we won’t know if we’ll get there until we see the next round of big ticket economic data in May.
In the meantime, home sales remain constrained.
Next week’s economic data is fairly muted apart from Friday’s PCE price index. This isn’t as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it could certainly cause some volatility if it happens to send a different message.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
The average 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have risen for the third week in a row, according to Freddie Mac. The increases over the past week were more substantial than over the previous two weeks, making it feel disheartening for aspiring home buyers who expected rates to go down in 2024.
Higher inflation numbers are keeping mortgage rates high for now. For the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate — a move that typically also leads to lower mortgage rates — inflation needs to get closer to the central bank’s target of 2%. In March, inflation was up 3.5% year over year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This was a slightly higher increase than economists had predicted.
It’s unlikely that mortgage rates will significantly rise or fall during the spring and summer home-buying season, so you may not want to wait for rates to drop to buy a house. Instead, focus on factors you can control: Figure out how much house you can afford and improve your finances if necessary to get the lowest rate possible.
Learn more: The credit score needed to buy a house in 2024
Mortgage rates are up across the board this week. The national average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.10%, which is 22 basis points more than last week and 71 points higher than this time in 2023.
The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.39%. This is 23 basis points higher than last week and up 63 points since a year ago.
A mortgage interest rate is a fee for borrowing money from your lender, expressed as a percentage. You can choose from two types of rates: fixed or adjustable.
A fixed-rate mortgage locks in your rate for the entire life of your loan. For example, if you get a 30-year mortgage with a 6.75% interest rate, your rate will stay at 6.75% for the entire 30 years unless you refinance or sell.
An adjustable-rate mortgage locks in your rate for a predetermined amount of time, then changes it periodically. Let’s say you get a 7/1 ARM with an introductory rate of 6%. Your rate would be 6% for the first seven years, then the rate would increase or decrease once per year for the last 23 years of your term. Whether your rate goes up or down depends on several factors, such as the economy and housing market.
At the beginning of your mortgage term, most of your monthly payment goes toward interest. Your monthly payment toward principal and interest stays the same throughout the years — however, less and less of your payment goes toward interest, and more goes toward the mortgage principal or the amount you originally borrowed.
Learn more: 5 strategies to get the lowest mortgage rates
A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is a good choice if you want a lower mortgage payment and the predictability that comes with having a fixed rate. Just know that your rate will be higher than if you choose a shorter term and will result in paying significantly more in interest over the years.
You might like a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage if you want to pay off your mortgage quickly and save money on interest. These shorter terms come with lower interest rates, and since you’re cutting your repayment time in half, you’ll save a lot in interest in the long run. But you’ll need to make sure you can comfortably afford the higher monthly payments that come with 15-year terms.
Read more: How to decide between a 15-year and 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
An adjustable-rate mortgage could be good if you plan to sell before the introductory rate period ends. Adjustable rates usually start lower than fixed rates, but there’s always the chance that the rate will increase once the rate-lock period is over. But if you get a 10/1 ARM, for example, and plan to sell before the 10-year period is up, you get to enjoy a lower rate and monthly payment without worrying about your rate increasing later.
In Fannie Mae’s latest rate forecast, the government-sponsored enterprise said it expects 30-year fixed rates to end 2024 at 6.4%. This is less optimistic than its February forecast when Fannie Mae expected rates to dip to 5.9% by the end of the year.
When the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate, mortgage rates typically go down in response. However, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s roughly a 98% chance that the Fed will not lower its rate at the central bank’s next meeting on May 1. So we probably won’t see significant changes anytime soon. If you’re ready to buy a house but holding out for rates to plummet first, it might not be worth the wait.
Learn more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
Source: finance.yahoo.com
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Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
No one is getting any younger, not even Clint Eastwood. Time marches on, as does, apparently, the cost of mailing a letter. The post office wants to jack the price of a stamp to 73 cents from 68 cents which took effect in January. But everything is politics these days, and out comes, “The Trump donor whom Biden can’t fire is running the U.S. Postal Service directly into the ground, just what everyone warned about when he was confirmed during the pandemic. The latest price hikes at USPS are just another sign of the unfavorable leadership of Postmaster General Louis DeJoy.” We have nearly seven months more of election cr-p. How about some good ol’ legal stuff? Neither side in the recent UWM lawsuit is likely to care to hear Brian Levy’s perspectives about the legal theories and people involved in the case, but I suspect many of you will. Levy’s most recent Mortgage Musings is chock full of sideways glances in footnotes, Don Corleone’s ethics, and of course, RESPA, among other stuff. (Found here after 8:30AM ET, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. OB’s smart solutions automate critical functions like pricing, hedging, trading, and social media. More originators and investors rely upon Optimal Blue’s integrated solutions, data, and connections to support their unique business strategies, no matter how complex. Hear an interview with Canopy’s Josh Neumarker on current pain points for originators and communication between management and sales staffs.)
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
A&D Mortgage introduces AIM – Artificial Intelligence in Mortgage, revolutionizing the mortgage industry with a platform that streamlines the lending process for brokers and borrowers alike. AIM enhances A&D’s existing portal with AI, advanced technology, a user-friendly interface, and stringent compliance protocols to set a new benchmark in loan originations. This innovative platform is designed to simplify mortgage processing, offering features like an intuitive interface for reduced processing times, comprehensive support for Non-QM and Conventional loans, direct Point of Sale integration for swift applications, and top-tier security and compliance measures safeguarding client data. AIM represents A&D Mortgage’s dedication to innovation and excellence, facilitating a smoother, more efficient lending experience from application to closure. As the industry shifts towards a tech-driven future, AIM leads with a solution that enhances both broker efficiency and client satisfaction. Explore AIM’s transformative impact on mortgage lending here. Step into the future of efficient, secure, and user-friendly mortgage processes.
“Take3tech.com is excited to announce our integration between TheRuleTool and Polly PPE. TheRuleTool supports thousands of Loan Officers who can now access agency/investor/bond/jumbo guidelines in Polly to ensure you are on target with guidelines. Are you a lender focused on building relationships with borrowers? Take3Tech has created LoanMAPS, a POS/LOS/CRM that includes upfront underwriting, digital validation and workflow that incorporates D1C, AIM, Collateral Underwriting, and portfolio guidelines. Easy for borrowers to use and empowers loan officers with knowledge that you use to impress! Easy to install and gives you the power of one database that hosts all your POS/LOS/CRM data. Training entry-level employees? Not a problem with our intuitive step-by-step instructions. You will have new employees processing and closing in a week! Learn more by visiting our website or registering today for an upcoming webinar with our CEO and Fannie Mae.”
In today’s fast-changing market, one thing has remained consistent: home price growth. With the rising prices, demand for HELOCs and home equity loans has also increased. Do you have the right tools in place to capitalize on today’s home equity lending opportunities? In this short video, Margie Ambrosio, SVP Information Systems Manager at George Mason Mortgage, shares her unique perspective on why home equity lending should be a “no-brainer” for today’s lenders and how Encompass® by ICE Mortgage Technology® makes it easy. Click here to watch the full video.
Do you know how much wallet share you hold in your agent referral partnerships? With MMI’s data intelligence platform, you can not only see who you’re working with but also how much of their business you’re getting. For a limited time, click here to request your complimentary agent wallet share report and get X-ray insight into where else your top RE agent or office partner is sending their deals. Armed with this competitive intelligence, you can pinpoint potential areas for growth and opportunity like this MMI user: “As a dedicated professional constantly seeking innovative solutions to enhance my business, discovering MMI was a game-changer. MMI has allowed me to proactively identify prospective new agents and immediately reach out to discuss something of value for their new listing. MMI provides the essential data backbone, delivering new listing information to my inbox for existing agent relationships, as well as the agents on my prospect list.”
Winning Agent Business: The lender’s guide to building a strong referral network, updated for 2024. In the aftermath of the NAR ruling, agents are more incentivized than ever to show their clients value. That means they’re actively looking to partner with top-tier lenders in their market. Want to take advantage and grow your referral business? Maxwell just updated its Winning Agent Business eBook with new tips straight from agents to help you better network to create a strong funnel of referral leads. Download your free copy to learn qualities agents value in their lending partners, networking dos and don’ts, ways to become a go-to lender, and more.
If Amazon were in the mortgage business, what would their online application look like? Would it look like yours? They wouldn’t tolerate borrowers getting frustrated with a bad mobile experience and neither should you. Check out LiteSpeed by LenderLogix and see why mortgage bankers are making the switch.
Originators continue to find a way to get ahead of the competition with 48-hour appraisals! Tired of slow appraisals costing you deals? Class Valuation is transforming the industry with its 48-hour purchase appraisal program. This groundbreaking solution is designed to cut appraisal turnaround times significantly, helping loan originators close faster and win more business. Class Valuation’s innovative technology and streamlined process has proven over and over to cut turn times dramatically with no loss in appraisal quality. Get the edge you need in today’s market. Learn more about the 48-hour appraisals.
STRATMOR, Customer Experience, and ICE
Did you know that STRATMOR Group’s Customer Experience Strategy program, MortgageCX, is now integrated with Encompass and available through ICE Marketplace? MortgageCX personalizes CX feedback and coaching tips for every LO, processor, and manager, leveraging STRATMOR’s industry expertise, peer benchmarking data, and the lender’s own customer feedback. Participating lenders are transforming their customer experience and igniting their revenue growth. Contact STRATMOR for more on the MortgageCX program and join those lenders already benefiting from this integration.
Upcoming Webinars and Training
You may-as-well learn something while waiting for business to pick up! A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here, and click on “Conference List” for in-person events in the future.)
Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT join Robbie Chrisman and Justin Demola for a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements.
When are Things Going to Get Better Already!?! Spokane Association for Mortgage Professionals invites you to join us as we have a conversation with RE Source on Wednesday, April 17th from 4:30pm-6:30pm at the Spokane Club 1002 W Riverside Ave, Spokane, WA. Topics will include Market Insights, Content Creation, Social Media and Winning in 24′. Click here to register. (Be sure to check out the RE Source latest videos: https://theresource.tv/.)
Thursday April 18th Rich Swerbinsky returns to the airwaves at 3PM ET, interviewing the CFPB’s Mark McArdle on what the big misconceptions about the CFPB are, and where its focus is currently.
FHA Appraisal Policies for Manufactured Homes in Greensboro, April 18th, 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM (Eastern). This free, in-person training will provide an overview of FHA appraisal/appraiser requirements for manufactured homes as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. This training will cover several topics including property acceptability criteria, minimum property standards/minimum property requirements (MPR/MPS), defective conditions, policy updates, inspections, well and septic requirements, underwriting the appraisal, and program types such as a new construction.
Join Angel Oak on Thursday, April 18th for a Non-QM Webinar on Short Term Rentals & DSCLR Loans. Discussion will include AirDNA, short term rentals and DSCR Loan program details. Plus, the top questions heard from their brokers.
IMLA is hosting a Builder Panel at its April Luncheon, Thursday, April 18 · 11:30am – 1pm MDT at the Riverside Hotel Aspen Room. Treasure Valley Builders Bobbie Jordan, Preside of Jordan Homes, Bud Compher, Jr., CEO of Neighborworks Boise, Cody Weight, President of Solitude Homes and Jenna England, President of Berkeley will share their perspectives on building trends, affordable housing, and how they are adapting to the everchanging market.
AmeriCatalyst explores the operational impact of climate change and its profound industry-wide implications for the US housing and finance market. AmeriCatalyst’s GOING TO EXTREMES: The Climate, Housing and Finance Summit is being held at the Gaylord National Harbor (in the Washington DC area) on April 18 and 19. Contact Toni Moss (512-461-6340) with questions.
Friday the 19th is the next episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”.
Join co-hosts, the National Association of Appraisers and Appraiser eLearning, at the 6th annual Appraiser’s Conference and Trade Show (ACTS). The next ACTS conference will be held April 20-23 at the DoubleTree in Colorado Springs hosted by the Colorado Real Estate Appraisers Association.
Interested in learning how retain/release MSR decisions can be included in your best execution strategy? Join MCT for a webinar on April 24th at 11:00 AM PT titled Complete Best Execution – Now Including Fully Integrated Retain/Release MSR Decisioning. In this webinar, MCT will review the current state of the MSR market and discuss more comprehensive retain vs. release strategies, in addition to our recently introduced fully integrated Enhanced Best Execution (EBX) solution. MCT’s Paul Yarbrough will then provide insights from a trader’s perspective regarding MSR best execution strategies at time of loan sale. He will also highlight MCT’s Rapid Commit technology and assignment of trade processes. This session will include a live demo of the EBX (MCTlive! and MSRlive!) integration, showcasing how EBX can effectively optimize your flow MSR trading process and decisions. Register for the webinar to join the session.
Join CoreLogic for an exclusive webinar on Wednesday, April 24, noon CT tailored for lenders to delve into the Valuation Modernization Initiative. Dive into the innovative redesign of forms and the cutting-edge UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) initiative, poised to revolutionize the sector. Explore the significant effects that this initiative is exerting on the broader industry, encompassing alterations in Loan Origination Systems (LOS), effective management of appraisal fees, performance SLAs, and other aspects.
The Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program (SFHGLP) is offering free, in-person training to its lending partners. The training will offer one and half days of loan origination training and one day of loan servicing training, April 24th, 9:00 am – 4:00 pm in Glenn Allen, VA. The servicing agenda will focus on the methodology and processes of handling troubled loans in your USDA portfolio. USDA will cover the entire waterfall of loss mitigation options and the specific rules and processes of administration and provide an update on USDA programs portfolio review. It will be held at the Virgina Housing Center, 4224 Cox Rd., Glenn Allen, VA. This is an in-person event only and will not be streamed live.
“A never-before-seen economic environment calls for new ways to create stronger business growth. Register now for a MAXEX roundtable discussion Thursday, April 25 at 2 p.m. Eastern where we’ll breakdown how unyielding inflation, stubborn mortgage rates, an unpredictable Federal Reserve and a nearly two-year long yield curve inversion are affecting the mortgage world. The roundtable will feature MAXEX and special guests. Don’t miss this opportunity to hear directly from industry leaders about how they’re attacking the road ahead and where you can find growth while working against industry headwinds.”
Join MBA’s webinar, April 25th, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM ET, as they delve into the fundamentals and complexities of mortgage accounting. Anyone who desires to increase their knowledge of mortgage loan accounting will benefit from this session that is designed for business owners, executive management, accountants, and non-CPA accounting managers. Complete the full series, and you’ll have the information necessary to master mortgage accounting.
FHA New Applicants are invited to join a free virtual webinar, April 25, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM (Eastern) conducted by FHA’s Office of Lender Activities and Program Compliance, will focus on the Lender Electronic Assessment Portal (LEAP) as outlined in the Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. Content includes a detailed overview of the FHA lender approval application process, eligibility requirements, and required documentation for the various types of mortgagees (lenders). Common application deficiencies will also be addressed and tips for submitting a successful application will be provided.
Capital Markets
The latest consumer price data drove last week’s market movement as traders attempt to predict when the Fed will begin to ease monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent in March at both the headline and core levels, which was hotter than market expectations and led to an immediate sell-off in bonds. The question remains as to whether this is a bump in the road to 2 percent inflation or an inflection point signaling a reversal of course.
Meanwhile, farther up the food chain, producer prices rose 0.2 percent in March, their slowest pace over the last three months. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, will not be released until April 26. Despite the belief that inflation will trend lower throughout the year, Fed officials clearly do not have confidence it is on a sustained path towards two percent at this time. As a result, the market has pushed the likelihood of the first rate cut from June to September.
This week’s economic calendar kicked off with a bang today with March retail sales (+.7 percent, the consumer is strong!) and April Empire State manufacturing. Later today brings the NAHB Housing Market Index for April, February business inventories, and remarks from a couple of Fed speakers. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices worse .250-.375, the 10-year yielding 4.61 after closing Friday at 4.50 percent, and the 2-year up at 4.96.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Average 30-year mortgage rates are hovering in the high 6% range this week after spiking close to 7% in the wake of the latest inflation report last Wednesday, according to Zillow data.
March’s Consumer Price Index data came in hotter than expected, causing mortgage rates to rise. Until inflation slows further and the Federal Reserve is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated.
Depending on what incoming data shows, we could even see rates tick above 7% for the first time since November 2023.
Next week, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the latest personal consumption expenditures price index. The PCE price index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
If the latest PCE numbers support the narrative that inflation is remaining stubbornly high, mortgage rates could inch up further. But the PCE price index tracks a broader range of good and services than the CPI, so it’s possible this index could show some softening that didn’t appear in the CPI report.
Ultimately, it may take a few more months of data before we see inflation cool enough for the Fed to start cutting rates. Though they were initially pricing in a rate cut at the Fed’s meeting in June, investors are now betting that we won’t get the first cut until September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This will likely keep mortgage rates elevated throughout the spring and summer. But we could still see them go down later in 2024.
Mortgage type | Average rate today |
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage type | Average rate today |
Real Estate on Zillow
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. By plugging in different rates and term lengths, you’ll also understand how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage.
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The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.89%, up 28 points from where it was this time last week, according to Zillow data. This rate is also up compared to a month ago, when it was 6.53%.
At 6.89%, you’ll pay $658 monthly toward principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 34 points up from where it was last week, and is sitting at 6.64%. This time last month, the rate was 6.22%.
With a 6.64% rate on a 20-year term, your monthly payment will be $754 toward principal and interest for every $100,000 borrowed.
A 20-year term isn’t as common as a 30-year or 15-year term, but plenty of mortgage lenders still offer this option.
The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.12%, just a single basis point higher than last week. It’s up slightly compared to this time last month, when it was 6.03%.
With a 6.12% rate on a 15-year term, you’ll pay $850 each month toward principal and interest for every $100,000 borrowed.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
The 7/1 adjustable mortgage rate is up 11 basis points from a week ago, currently at 6.80%. It’s down from a month ago, when it was at 7.02%.
At 6.80%, your monthly payment would be $652 toward principal and interest for every $100,000 borrowed — but only for the first seven years. After that, your payment would increase or decrease annually depending on the new rate.
The average 5/1 ARM rate is 6.87%, a three-point increase from last week. It’s lower compared to where it was a month ago, when it was 7.06%.
Here’s how a 6.87% rate would affect you for the first five years: You’d pay $657 per month toward principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
The average 30-year FHA interest rate is 5.93% today, which is 19 basis points up from last week. This rate was 6.09% a month ago.
At 5.93%, you would pay $595 monthly toward principal and interest for every $100,000 borrowed.
FHA mortgages are good choices if you don’t qualify for a conforming mortgage. You’ll need a 3.5% down payment and 580 credit score to qualify.
The current VA mortgage rate is 6.25%, 42 basis points higher than this time last week. This rate was 5.95% a month ago.
With a 6.25% rate, your monthly payment would be $616 toward principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
The average 30-year refinance rate is 6.98%, eight basis points lower than last week. It’s also down slightly compared to a month ago, when it was 7.08%.
Here’s how a 6.98% rate would affect your monthly payments: You’d pay $664 toward principal and interest for every $100,000 borrowed.
Refinancing into a 30-year term can land you lower monthly payments, but you’ll ultimately pay more by refinancing into a longer term.
The current 20-year fixed refinance rate is 7.69%, which is up 131 basis points compared to a week ago. This rate was 6.53% this time last month.
A 7.69% rate on a 20-year term will result in a $817 monthly payment toward principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
The average 15-year fixed refinance rate is 6.59%, which is 15 points higher compared to last week. It’s also up compared to this time a month ago, when it was at 6.34%.
A 6.59% rate on a 15-year term means you’ll pay $876 each month toward principal and interest for every $100,000 borrowed.
Refinancing into a 15-year term can save you money in the long run, because you’ll get a lower rate and pay off your mortgage faster than you would with a 30-year term. But it could result in higher monthly payments.
The average 7/1 ARM refinance rate is 6.49%, down 112 points from where it was last week. It’s also down a bit from a month ago, when it was 7.94%.
Refinancing into a 7/1 ARM with a 6.49% rate means your monthly payment toward principal and interest will be $631 for every $100,000 you borrow. This will be the payment for the first seven years, then your rate will change annually unless you refinance again.
The 5/1 ARM refinance rate is 6.41%, which is lower than it was this time last week. It’s also down a lot compared to this time last month, when it was 7.59%.
A 6.41% rate will result in a monthly payment of $626 toward principal and interest for every $100,000 borrowed. You’ll pay this amount for the first five years of your new mortgage.
The 30-year FHA refinance rate is 5.95%, which is 19 points higher than last week. This rate was 5.49% this time last month.
A 5.95% refinance rate would lead to a $596 monthly payment toward the principal and interest per $100,000 borrowed.
The average 30-year VA refinance rate is 5.91%, which is up 12 points compared to where it was was last week. This rate was 5.82% a month ago.
At 5.91%, your new monthly payment would be $594 toward principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year. Though rates have been somewhat elevated recently, they should go down by the end of 2024.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease further. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
Source: businessinsider.com
Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index caused a brutally fast spike in mortgage rates. It wasn’t notable for taking us to exceptionally high levels (October 2023 was much higher), but it was one of the biggest single-day jumps. Either way, it easily took the average lender back to highest levels since November 2023.
Today was very tame by comparison although rates moved just a bit higher. The average lender is at the weakest levels since November 20th, 2023. This reality is at odds with many of today’s mortgage rate headlines which mention 6.88% as this week’s rate. So what’s the true story?
6.88% is a product of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. What Freddie really means is that 6.88% was the 5 day average from last Thursday through yesterday. Moreover, Freddie’s survey doesn’t adjust for upfront discount points and several other loan features that can push rates down. Combined with the averaging methodology and lag, Freddie’s rate is frequently misleading for consumers who are trying to get a sense of where rates may be on any given day.
Please be very well assured and very certain that 6.88% is not today’s rate. While a mortgage lender could technically still quote such rates, they would not be able to do so without higher upfront costs (aka “points”). Based on our apples to apples approach, today’s rate would need to be 0.25-0.375% higher to be quoted with the same upfront costs as a rate from Tuesday (before the big spike).
Today brought only a modest increase by comparison. In both cases, the average lender would be in the 7.3’s for a top tier scenario. On a side note, our index does include a proprietary adjustment for points. 7.3’s can mean lenders quoting rates of 7.125, for instance, but with some additional upfront cost. It can also mean rates of 7.5% with lower upfront costs.
The calendar of potential drama is relatively quiet tomorrow. The next report of note is Monday’s Retail Sales. But even then, we’re really waiting for the beginning of May before we get more data with the power to truly challenge the suggestions of this week’s CPI.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Mortgage rates drifted higher this week, and could increase further, in a sign that America’s affordability crisis isn’t letting up.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.88% in the week ending April 11, up from 6.82% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. A year ago, the average 30-year fixed-rate was 6.27%.
Rates have mostly held steady in the past several weeks, but they could rise even higher, potentially crossing the uncomfortable psychological threshold of 7%, if inflation proves to be more stubborn than expected.
The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and hotter-than-expected inflation readings could keep the central bank from reducing interest rates.
“Mortgage rates have been drifting higher for most of the year due to sustained inflation and the reevaluation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a release. “While newly released inflation data from March continues to show a trend of very little movement, the financial market’s reaction paints a far different economic picture.”
Mortgage rates track the benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s decisions. The yield topped 4.5% Wednesday, the highest level since November, after the latest Consumer Price Index showed persistent price pressures in March. That doesn’t bode well for lower mortgage rates, and economists don’t expect rates to fall below 6% this year, especially if the Fed does not end up cutting interest rates.
But, for now, officials are still expecting to cut rates at some point this year, though that may happen later than previously expected. That could help alleviate some pressure in the country’s tough housing market.
Mortgage rates are not expected to drop meaningfully this year, but further improvement in housing inventory could improve affordability. The National Association of Realtors said that more homes came to market in February, which helped drive up sales that month.
Homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to lift rates in 2022 have largely preferred not to sell in recent years, contributing to historically low inventory. That may be starting to change.
Total housing inventory rose 5.9% in February from January, to 1.07 million units. Inventory was up 10.3% in February from a year earlier, giving buyers more choices and helping ease some upward pressure on prices.
A lack of homes has been a longstanding issue keeping America’s housing market unaffordable and is especially frustrating for first-time buyers. President Joe Biden has laid out proposals to fix the housing market, such as tax credits and homebuilding initiatives but, even if they receive congressional approval, it’s unclear whether that will be enough.
Despite recent improvements, and even if the Fed does cut rates, as it has indicated, the main issue continues to be that supply simply is not keeping up with demand, keeping a home purchase out of reach for the vast majority of Americans.
Source: cnn.com
Mortgage rates surged at a pace seen only one other time since October 2022. The average lender moved up by 0.28%, which is functionally equivalent to the 0.29% seen after the February 2nd jobs report. In fact, today was arguably worse because the Feb 2nd example happened a day after rates hit long-term lows. The implication is that the jump would not have been as big in early Feb if rates weren’t undergoing a correction from those lows.
Hair splitting aside, there just aren’t many past examples of rates rising more than a quarter point in a day. Before covid, it had happened one other time in the past decade.
Translation: it was a rough day for rates. But why?
We’ve been rather incessantly focused on the risks associated with today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the days and weeks leading up to its release. It ended up exceeding the hype by showing that inflation refuses to head to the lower levels required for a lower interest rate environment. Today is really that simple.
Rates are highly dependent on inflation data at the moment. We’ll get another inflation report tomorrow, but it never operates on the same scale of relevance to rates as CPI. That’s not to say a friendly result wouldn’t help, but the data stands an equal chance to be unfriendly, thus compounding today’s problems as opposed to taking the edge off.
We’ll talk more about longer-term, bigger-picture implications on Friday.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
So far, we have held the line on the market pricing in three rate cuts, but today was a clear break from that. Earlier in the year, the market got well ahead of itself with saying we would have six rate cuts, but I believe, just like last year, the bond market was too bearish on the economy to price in six rate cuts. We have a lot of time left in 2024, and as you can see in the chart below, the 2-year yield has been on a roller coaster since last November.
From BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
One note: this report isn’t 100% a result of shelter inflation being hotter than estimates; car insurance and energy have picked up recently, too. However, the giant monster in the CPI world is shelter, as it’s 44.4% of the index.
In this report, shelter inflation damaged the month-to-month inflation growth because the owner’s equivalent rent of residences (OER) was the primary driver of monthly inflation.
Regarding shelter inflation, as we can see below, the slow-moving monster is just not dropping fast enough to lower the core inflation data. With CPI inflation, rents are the biggest deal for core inflation. If we have stronger month-to-month inflation, it will slow down the year-over-year data enough to keep CPI elevated.
The OER is becoming a more significant issue for the CPI data this year. We must also be mindful that while we see disinflation in apartments, single-family rents are holding up well. However, the slowdown on this index keeps the data elevated. A more real-time shelter model would change the story very quickly, but that’s not going to happen.
We have made some progress on Core CPI, but remember; the Fed doesn’t track CPI inflation for their 2% target; it’s PCE inflation, and the gap between CPI and PCE inflation is massive. Historically, we would see a gap of 0.47%. Currently, it’s double that. However, with shelter inflation slowly moving lower year over year, core CPI is stalling out until this data line breaks it much lower.
Today, the 0.1% miss on estimates on CPI has taken one Fed rate cut off the table, and mortgage rates have gone higher today. I don’t believe the Fed will pivot until the labor market breaks, something I talked about on this HousingWire Daily podcast. We do see some wage-growth trends that the Fed will find suitable to get more dovish, but the labor data isn’t breaking until jobless claims break.
Next up, we will get the PPI inflation data, which filters into the all-important PCE inflation data. Stay tuned!
Source: housingwire.com
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As economists await the release of this morning’s key Consumer Price Index inflation data, mortgage rates are up, with the 30-year fixed purchase rate hovering above 7% as of Wednesday, April 10, 2024.
The current average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.02% for purchase and 6.97% for refinance — up 10 basis points from 6.92% for purchase and up 4 basis points from 6.93% for refinance last Wednesday. Rates on a 15-year mortgage stand at an average 6.44% for purchase and 6.48% for refinance. The average rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 7.20%, up 24 basis points from last week.
Purchase rates for Wednesday, April 10, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 7.02%
20-year fixed rate — 6.81%
15-year fixed rate — 6.44%
10-year fixed rate — 6.37%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.60%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.77%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.09%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.20%
Refinance rates for Wednesday, April 10, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 6.97%
20-year fixed rate — 6.81%
15-year fixed rate — 6.48%
10-year fixed rate — 6.37%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.42%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.93%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.81%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.12%
Freddie Mac weekly mortgage report
Freddie Mac reports an average 6.82% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, up three basis points from last week, according to its weekly survey of nationwide lenders published on April 4, 2024. The fixed rate for a 15-year mortgage is 6.06%, down five basis points from last week.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says of the report, “While incoming economic signals indicate lower rates of inflation, we do not expect rates will decrease meaningfully in the near-term. On the plus side, inventory is improving somewhat, which should help temper home price growth.”
The Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, though it sets benchmarks that indirectly affect rates on financial products like mortgages, personal loans and deposit accounts. The Fed has a firm goal of a 2% inflation rate, and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely the reserve will cut rates until that goal is within reality’s reach.
Mortgage lenders keep a close eye on the key interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, the U.S.’s central bank. Called the fed rate, it’s the benchmark that affects rates on deposit accounts, loans and other financial products. Typically, as the Fed rate rises, so do APYs on savings products like CDs, high-yield savings accounts and money market accounts. Mortgage and home loan rates don’t follow the fed rate as closely, but they do reflect the same elements the Fed evaluates when making decisions on the benchmark — especially inflation.
The Federal Reserve increased the target interest rate 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023 in an effort to combat the highest inflation in four decades coming out of the pandemic.
Economists are awaiting the release of today’s Consumer Price Index data, which will answer whether inflation is continuing to cool. February’s Consumer Price Index data released on March 12 showed a month-over-month increase in consumer prices — a widely used indicator for inflation. The new data makes for an interesting week, what with the latest Producer Price Index due for release tomorrow.
At the conclusion of its rate-setting policy meeting on March 20, 2024, the Fed left the federal funds target interest rate of 5.25% to 5.50% unchanged, marking the fifth consecutive time it’s held rates steady since July 2023. In its post-meeting statement, the Federal Reserve maintained it wouldn’t cut the key interest rate until it’s confident “that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
While bankers forecast three rate cuts by the end of the year, a growing group of economists now doubt whether the Fed will cut interest rates this year — including Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, who told Pensions & Investments last week, “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all.”
Government agency Freddie Mac released its March 20 economic outlook on the housing and mortgage market that predicts mortgage rates to stay at 6.5% or higher through the summer.
The summer homebuying season could bring with it a major change in the way Americans buy and sell homes. On March 15, the National Association of Realtors announced it had agreed to a settlement that, if approved by a federal judge, would bring an end to longstanding real estate broker commissions of up to 6% of a home’s purchase price. The settlement isn’t expected to affect mortgage rates, yet it paves the way for consumers to negotiate what they pay for an agent’s services, potentially saving homebuyers money in the long run — just in time for summer home sales.
The difference of even half a percentage point on your interest rate can save you hundreds of dollars a month and thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage, but the mortgage rate you’re ultimately offered depends on the mortgage you’re interested in, payments you’re willing to pay up front and your overall financial health.
Your credit score. Knowing your credit score can help you shop around for lenders you’re likely to get approval through, as well as understand the type of mortgage for your lifestyle and income. The best mortgage rates go to borrowers with good to excellent credit — typically a FICO credit score of at least 670 — though even with fair credit, you may be able to find a mortgage offering decent rates.
Your down payment. The more money you can put down toward your home, the better it benefits your interest rate. Paying at least 20% of your home’s purchase price up front generally results in a lower interest rate — and you can avoid mortgage insurance, which increases your total cost.
Your loan term. While the 30-year mortgage remains a popular way for Americans to purchase homes, you can find terms of 20 years, 15 years and 10 years. Shorter loan terms usually come with lower interest rates, though with higher monthly payments. Longer mortgage terms can result in smaller monthly payments, though you’ll pay higher total interest over the life of your loan.
Interest rate type. Mortgage rates come with two basic types of rates — fixed and variable. Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate over the life of your loan, whereas adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) often start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-on time and then adjust to a variable rate based on market conditions for the remainder of your term. Choosing between these two rates depends on your financial goals and tolerance for risk.
Lenders are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. A lender is different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, talking directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.
Refinancing is a process of trading in your current mortgage to another lender for lower rates and better terms than your current loan. With a refinance, the new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then pay your monthly statements from the new lender.
Mortgage rates are determined by many factors that include inflation rates, economic conditions, housing market trends and the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate. Lenders also consider your personal credit score, the amount available for your down payment, the property you’re interested in and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.
Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan.
It’s not likely — lenders consider the market conditions and other financial factors when determining rates. You can, however, ask about how you can reduce costs in other ways when comparing mortgage lenders. For instance, many lenders offer lower rates in exchange for “mortgage points” — upfront fees you pay to your lender. A mortgage point could cost 1% of your mortgage amount, which means about $5,000 on a $500,000 home loan, with each point lowering your interest rate by about 0.25%, depending on your lender and loan.
Editor’s note: Annual percentage yields shown are as of Wednesday, April 10, 2024, at 7:45 a.m. ET. APYs and promotional rates for some products can vary by region and are subject to change.
Source: aol.com