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Source: nytimes.com

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Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk

Thu, May 2 2024, 4:26 PM

Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk

Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to hold the gains after the early economic data which consisted of unfriendly readings in Challenger layoffs, Jobless Claims, and Q1 Unit Labor Costs.  All three spoke to ongoing labor market strength with the latter adding some inflationary fuel to the fire.  But the bond market is apparently tired of reacting to the alarming data from Q1 and March.  Instead, the perfect adherence to previously established technical levels (4.64 and 4.57 in terms of the 10yr) suggests intraday volatility was a factor of positioning and short-covering ahead of Friday’s jobs report.  There is some asymmetric risk potential on Friday considering how unfazed bonds seem to be by yet another unfriendly report (with the implication being a greater willingness to chase the bid on a downbeat jobs number). Just remember, the previous sentence tells us nothing about the direction of trading–only probable magnitude.

    • Jobless Claims
      • 208k vs 212k f’cast, 208k prev
    • Continued Claims
      • 1774k vs 1800k f’cast, 1774k prev

08:34 AM

10yr up from 4.592 overnight lows to 4.621 (still down 1.3bps on the day).  MBS are still up an eighth of a point, but down 2 ticks (.06) from the highs.

12:37 PM

Some weakness into the 9am hour, but now at the best levels of the day.  10yr down 4bps at 4.593.  MBS up just over a quarter point.

03:18 PM

Flat at best levels.  MBS up nearly 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.6bps at 4.578

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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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With the Federal Reserve meeting again this week, many homebuyers are wondering about the future of mortgage interest rates.

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All eyes will once again turn to the Federal Reserve this week as they meet to discuss the next steps with interest rates and economic policy. Specifically, will they raise rates above their current 23-year high? Or will they keep them steady following a series of disappointing inflation reports at the start of 2024? After all, rate cuts that seemed promising at the beginning of the year now seem off the table, possibly for the rest of the year

And while the Fed doesn’t directly dictate rates for loans like mortgages, personal loans and other borrowing products, what they ultimately decide will greatly affect what rate lenders are willing to offer. Homebuyers will then follow this week’s meeting carefully. After coping with the highest mortgage rates since 2000, buyers are looking for relief — or signs of rate relief to come. 

To that point, many are wondering if mortgage rates will rise after this week’s Fed meeting. That’s what we will break down below.

See what mortgage rate you could lock in before a potential increase here now.

Will mortgage rates rise after this week’s Fed meeting?

While no one knows with certainty what will happen after the Fed meeting, set for April 30 and May 1, the chances of a rate cut are minimal. Thanks to sticky inflation and a target inflation rate goal of 2%, more work must be done (the current inflation rate is 3.5%). So rate cuts look out for this week. While a rate hike is possible, it’s also unlikely to happen until more data about the fight against inflation becomes available. 

With those scenarios accounted for, then, it’s likely that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range between 5.25% and 5.50%. But what will that mean for mortgage rates

It won’t be particularly positive. While a rate pause is better than a rate hike, even a hint at an extended pause — or the potential for rate hikes in the months to come — could cause mortgage rates to rise in anticipation. So what Fed chairman Jerome Powell says this week will go a long way toward cooling rates — or making them rise further. However, if homebuyers were hoping for a rate cut, as some were predicting at the end of 2023, that’s not likely to happen, at least for now.

See what mortgage rate you could secure before the Fed announces its rate decision.

How to get a lower mortgage rate now

While the sub-3% mortgage rates of 2020 are unlikely to return anytime soon (or ever again), that doesn’t mean homebuyers still can’t get a lower mortgage rate now. It will just require a bit more work and strategic planning. Here are three ways buyers can get a lower mortgage rate now:

  • Buy mortgage points: Mortgage points can potentially help you secure a rate half a percentage point or lower than average. By paying points (or a fee) to a lender at closing (or by having it rolled into your overall mortgage loan), you can potentially save hundreds of dollars each month with a lower rate. That said, the amount of points you can typically buy will be limited and will vary from lender to lender. 
  • Get an adjustable-rate mortgage: An adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) works as it sounds. It’s a mortgage in which the rate will adjust over time, typically starting at a below-average rate before rising after a predetermined period has concluded. That said, it’s important to crunch the savings here before acting because when the rate does adjust, it could become costly for many buyers. 
  • Shop around: While you’re unlikely to find one mortgage lender that offers a rate a full point lower than another, you can, potentially, find one that offers a slightly lower rate than others. And in today’s rate climate, every basis point counts. So shop around for lenders to find one offering the best rates and terms (and be sure to compare fees and closing costs, too, to ensure that the lower rate won’t be canceled out by fees paid elsewhere).

The bottom line

The strong potential for mortgage rates to rise again this week, even if the Fed keeps rates unchanged, could be a motivating factor for buyers to lock in a rate now. That said, there are still effective ways to get a below-average rate, ranging from buying mortgage points to adjustable-rate mortgages to simply shopping around for the best rates and terms. None of these strategies will bring back the record-low mortgage rates of recent years, but they are all worth carefully considering until the Fed finally starts cutting rates again. 

Source: cbsnews.com

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The bond market–which dictates interest rates–had a generally favorable response to yesterday’s update from the Federal Reserve.  While the Fed didn’t cut rates, and while they’re increasingly acknowledging that rate cuts are moving farther into the future, they still think data will evolve in a way that results in the next move being a cut as opposed to a hike.

Positive momentum continued today, in spite of several economic reports that argued the opposite case.  Had these reports been top tier market movers, the counterintuitive victory would have been highly unlikely.

Friday is a different sort of day in terms of economic data.  The big monthly jobs report is in a league of its own when it comes to labor market data, and while it may not currently be the most important report on any given month, it’s a consistent 2nd place behind CPI.  After the jobs report, we’ll get a strong 2nd tier contender in the form of ISM’s service sector index.  

These two reports have the power to accelerate or reverse the friendly tone seen in rates over the past 2 days.  As for today, the average lender inched just barely to the lowest levels since April 12th.  This wasn’t the case in the first half of the day, but as bonds improved, many lenders were able to issue mid-day reprices. 

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Higher interest rates are increasing pressure on homebuyers who are already facing a challenging housing market. Many would-be buyers are understandably putting purchasing plans on hold, but there are no signs mortgage rates will drop significantly in the near future, and there are some sensible steps to take if you want to become a homeowner soon.

Mortgage rates surged past 7% for the first time this year on April 18 and continued to climb last week. According to Freddie Mac’s benchmark survey, the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan is averaging 7.17% — more than half a percentage point higher than at the start of the year. And the upward trend may not be over.

Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac’s deputy chief economist, says it’s hard to predict just how much higher rates could rise, given the volatility in the market. A lot depends on data regarding inflation, which is proving to be stickier than everyone hoped for, and market expectations as to when the Federal Reserve will start cutting short-term interest rates.

“Given the current [economic] trajectory we’re on, it’s looking like there’s still some upward momentum,” Kiefer says. “In the very near term, we’ll probably see these rates be at the current level or a little bit higher.”

How much higher could mortgage rates go?

Most early-year forecasts predicted that mortgage rates would start moving in a slow downward trend throughout the year. While those outlooks seemed to be on the money during the first two months of the year, the opposite has been true in recent months.

According to Bob Smith, head of real estate for Advisor Credit Exchange, for at least the remainder of the year, “Rates are going to be bounded in a range . . . probably in the 6%s, low 7%s.”

It’s unclear when inflation will finally be under control, meaning mortgage rates will probably remain volatile for a while before settling down.

In the long term, Kiefer and Smith see inflationary pressures easing later this year. That should help nudge mortgage rates lower — just “not as much as we had thought,” Kiefer says.

Impact on homebuyers, sellers and the housing market

High mortgage rates are hitting buyers right in the middle of the spring buying season. According to Freddie Mac, about 36% of all home sales take place between March and June, making these months the busiest time in the housing market.

Elevated mortgage rates, combined with high home prices and a lack of enough inventory to meet buyer demand, have led to record-high monthly payments. Homeowners insurance costs are at all-time highs as well, up 20% in the past year. These factors are pushing many would-be buyers to put their plans on hold. According to a report by BMO Financial Group, 71% of would-be homebuyers are waiting for rates to drop before buying a house.

Potential home sellers are also feeling the crunch, especially those who bought when rates were much lower. The cost of obtaining a new mortgage at a higher rate is keeping owners locked into their homes.

Despite the challenges, buyers shouldn’t panic. “Rates are, for a large part, temporary. At some point, [they] will go down,” says Scott Bridges, chief CDL production officer at lender Pennymac.

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How buyers can cope with high mortgage rates

Instead of worrying about things that are out of your control, it’s best to focus on the fundamentals of homebuying to see if purchasing a home right now is the right move (regardless of the rate). Here’s what you can do:

Take care of your credit score.

Check your credit score and try to improve it while you’re shopping for a home. Buyers with better credit generally have access to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, taking on extra debt during this time will reduce your score as well as your debt-to-income ratio, which will cause lenders to offer a higher interest rate on a mortgage. “When rates are higher, every bit of debt counts,” says Bridges.

Be prepared to negotiate.

Higher mortgage rates could move some buyers out of the market, which means more opportunities and less competition for those who can afford to buy. Don’t be afraid to lowball a little bit. With fewer buyers, you may be able to negotiate a lower price or concessions with a motivated seller.

Cast a wider net to find a home.

Ideally, you’ll find a move-in ready home that fits your budget. The reality is that homes requiring little to no work attract a lot of attention and you may find yourself in a bidding war. Don’t be afraid to look for homes that may need some TLC. The asking price is likely more negotiable, and you may find you can use the money you save to fix up the home to your taste.

Know how much house you can afford.

Set a budget you’re comfortable with. Use a housing affordability calculator to get an estimate of how much you can pay towards a home purchase. You can also get loan estimates from several different lenders to find the best rates and loan terms. And remember, the maximum amount a lender is willing to lend isn’t necessarily what you should spend on a home. Set a lower budget if it makes better financial sense or if you want to have some wiggle room if you have to compete against other buyers.

Don’t rush.

A house is likely the most amount of money you’ll ever spend. Bridges says that homebuyers typically make mistakes when they rush the process. Take the time to inspect the property and ask to see a home appraisal. Make sure it’s the right fit for your needs at the right price for you.

“Try to do things patiently,” says Bridges. “Don’t overpay, and don’t panic.”

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More from Money:

8 Best Mortgage Lenders of May 2024

What to Look for When Buying a Home

The Cost of Buying a House Reaches a New Record High

Source: money.com

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Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back

Fri, May 3 2024, 5:18 PM

Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back

Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction to NFP coming in at 175k vs 243k or a bit too much of a rally relative to the motivation, no one could argue that bond yields were destined to drop after seeing this morning’s jobs report.  But employment data is only worth so much these days.  The main event continues to be inflation and we were reminded of that with the 10am ISM Services data.  The ISM headline was actually rate friendly, but the inflation component was the bigger mover, and it was not friendly.  Bonds lost almost all of their post-NFP gains in response, but managed to level off in the PM hours.  Combined with the 2 previous days of green, the net effect is the best closing levels since April 9th.

    • Nonfarm Payrolls
      • 175k vs 243k f’cast, 315k prev
    • Unemployment Rate
      • 3.9 vs 3.8 f’cast/prev
    • Wages
      • 0.2 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.3 prev
    • ISM Non Manufacturing
      • 49.4 vs 52.0 f’cast, 51.4 prev
    • ISM Prices
      • 59.2 vs 55.0 f’cast, 53.4 prev

08:43 AM

Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains after NFP data.  10yr down 8bps at 4.50, and MBS up 3/8ths

10:15 AM

losing some ground after ISM.  MBS still up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.526

02:16 PM

gradually bouncing back and now sideways in the middle of the post-NFP range.  MBS up 3/8ths.  10yr down 7.3bps at 4.507

04:49 PM

Very flat since noon with MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr yields down 8bps at 4.499.

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com