Sales of newly built single-family homes in the United States soared in March despite mortgage rates remaining elevated that month.
New home sales, which make up about 10% of the market, jumped 8.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to government figures released Tuesday. That trounced the 670,000 rate projected by economists, according to a FactSet poll, and was the strongest monthly increase since December 2022.
Sales of new homes increased across the country last month, rising the most in the Northeast region by a robust 27.8% from February.
Meanwhile, sales of existing homes, which make up the vast majority of the housing market, fell 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the sharpest drop in more than a year, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
Housing market poised to remain difficult
The broader US housing market is expected to remain tough for Americans, with mortgage rates poised to stay well above 6% this year, economists say. The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and the central bank isn’t expected to cut interest rates anytime soon. A persistent undersupply of housing also remains a key pressure point in the market, contributing to low affordability.
Housing inventory has improved in recent months, but supply still isn’t keeping up with demand. This means homebuyers have limited options as some homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to hike rates in 2022 largely prefer to not sell their homes.
“Despite high prices and mortgage rates, homebuyers have limited options on the resale market, although resale inventories have improved some over the course of this year,” Gregg Logan, managing director at RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, said in a note Tuesday.
“The willingness of the major homebuilders to utilize incentives such as price reductions, mortgage rate buy-downs and paying buyers closings costs continue to support a healthy pace of new home sales,” he added.
A stalled housing market recovery?
The housing market began the year with some momentum as home sales surged, homebuilder sentiment perked up and inventory levels climbed, but now it seems to have fizzled out.
In addition to the March drop in existing home sales, residential construction of single-family homes also fell that month, declining 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units, according to Commerce Department data released earlier this month. Residential construction fell throughout the country except in the West. Meanwhile, building permits for future construction tumbled 3.7% in March to a five-month low.
Data from the National Association of Home Builders showed that 22% of builders cut homes prices in April, down from 24% in March. Meanwhile, the share of builders who offered a sales incentive edged lower to 57% in April from 60% in March. Sentiment among homebuilders in America held steady in April, NAHB said.
“April’s flat reading suggests potential for demand growth is there, but buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed,” NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz, said in a release.
This story has been updated with additional context.
Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
Housing inventory
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
New listings
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
Pending sales
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
Home prices
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Price reductions
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
Inside: Learn how to save money quickly, even on a tight budget. Get practical tips for how to save money fast on a low income. Simple savings ideas to implement today.
Saving money on a tight budget can feel like a high mountain to conquer, especially when you’re trying to do it fast.
Many people earn just enough to cover their essential costs, leaving little room for savings. However, with the right strategies, saving money fast on a low income doesn’t have to be a pipe dream.
This is something I started when we decided to pay off debt. Then, we choose to continue saving that money and investing it.
By understanding the flow of your money – where it’s coming from and where it’s going – you can make informed decisions that maximize your savings potential.
By prioritizing your spending and forecasting future expenses, budgeting can reduce the stress of financial uncertainty and introduce a sense of control and confidence in your money management skills. Thus, leading to you starting to save.
What is the best way to save money on a low income?
On a low income, the best way to save money is to thoroughly understand your expenses and prioritize your needs over wants.
In addition, by planning and tracking your finances meticulously, you can identify where each penny is going. Thus, allowing you to analyze your expenses. Once you have a clear picture of these, start looking for areas to trim down.
Remember, saving money is about being proactive and consistent. These small but steady steps can build up over time to help you save money fast, even on a low income.
How to Save Money on A Fast Income
1. Start with Clear Priorities
Before you can decide where to cut costs or how to allocate your funds, you need to know what’s most important to you.
What is your why for doing what you need to do? Is it building an emergency fund, saving for a down payment on a home, or maybe preparing for retirement?
Whatever your goals, outline them clearly. This is how you will save money.
2. Budgeting effectively to manage finances
To budget effectively on a low income, it all starts with a cold, hard look at your numbers.
Begin by listing all sources of income – that’s your foundation.
From each paycheck or income stream, subtract your non-negotiable expenses such as rent, utilities, transportation, and debt payments. What you have left is your discretionary income.
Then, it’s time to categorize and prioritize. Group your expenses into necessities and nice-to-haves. If your essentials consume most of your income, you’ll need to scrutinize the nice-to-haves list.
Every dollar saved from unnecessary splurges is a dollar that can be put towards your savings.
Use budgeting apps or tools to keep a real-time record of your spending. These can help you stay disciplined and provide a visual reminder of your progress.
3. Track and Slash Unnecessary Expenses
Now, you must meticulously and ruthlessly cut out the non-essentials.
Identify patterns and spot the recurrent, unnecessary expenses that are draining your funds.
Do you subscribe to multiple streaming platforms?
Are you forking out cash for a gym membership you barely use?
Are those daily specialty coffee drinks adding up?
It’s time to slash these expenditures.
Cutting these expenses is like giving yourself a raise.
4. Lower Housing Expenses Without Compromising Comfort
Living in smaller, more affordable housing to decrease rent or mortgage might be exactly what you need.
Opting for a smaller, more affordable space is a practical approach to significantly lower your rent or mortgage payments. When you choose to live in a compact setting, not only do you reduce the square footage costs, but often, utility and maintenance expenses decrease as well due to the reduced size of the living area.
If you are renting, try to negotiate your rent or lease terms with your landlord – they might be willing to offer a discount to keep a reliable tenant, or you may be able to agree on lower rent for a longer lease commitment.
If you’re a homeowner, explore the possibility of refinancing your mortgage to take advantage of lower interest rates. Alternatively, consider renting out a room or a portion of your living space, as the additional income can offset your mortgage or maintenance costs.
5. Save Money on Utilities with Simple Home Adjustments
Saving money on utilities might sound challenging, but you can often achieve substantial savings with a few strategic home adjustments. Let’s explore some cost-effective strategies and modifications you can make to your living space that could help reduce your bills.
Energy Efficient Appliances: Swapping out older appliances for Energy Star-rated ones leads to significant reductions in electricity use and water consumption.
Smart Thermostats: Installing a smart thermostat allows you to programmatically control your heating and cooling based on your schedule and preferences, potentially saving you a bundle on your energy bills.
LED Lighting: Switch to LED bulbs, which are more energy-efficient than traditional incandescent ones and have a longer lifespan, saving you on replacement costs as well as your electric bill.
Insulation Upgrades: Proper insulation keeps your home warm in the winter and cool in the summer, reducing the need for excessive heating or air conditioning.
Water-Saving Fixtures: Low-flow showerheads and faucet aerators reduce water usage, preserving this precious resource and lowering your water bill.
Not only do these simple home adjustments lead to savings on your utility bills, but they also contribute to a more environmentally friendly lifestyle.
6. Cooking at home instead of eating out
Cooking at home instead of dining out is an excellent way to save money, especially on a low income. When you eat at a restaurant, you’re not just paying for the food; you’re also covering the cost of service, ambiance, and the establishment’s overhead.
Plan a balance between meal prepped home-cooked meals and the occasional dinner out to keep your budget in check while still enjoying life’s little pleasures. Here are some frugal meals to get you started.
Remember, you don’t have to eliminate eating out entirely.
7. Canceling unused subscriptions and memberships
Stop draining money on services you don’t actively use. It’s surprisingly easy to forget about these auto-renewing expenses, so taking the time to audit your subscriptions can reveal opportunities for savings.
Recently, we tracked over $100 a month in my mother-in-law’s unused subscriptions and membership!
As such, it’s important to periodically evaluate your subscriptions and memberships to ensure they are still serving your interests and goals. If not, give yourself permission to cancel and save that money for something that offers tangible benefits in return.
8. Buying quality items that last longer
Investing in quality items that last longer is a strategic way to save money over time. While the initial cost may be higher, durable products can prevent the cycle of frequent replacements, ultimately contributing to long-term savings and less waste.
Remember, not every purchase necessitates the highest quality option. Examine which items you frequently use and can benefit from in the long run. For instance, driving a Toyota or buying higher quality shoes.
Once you’ve identified these, invest in quality for those and enjoy the satisfaction of a purchase that lasts.
9. Optimize Grocery Shopping
To optimize grocery shopping and manage your food budget effectively, start by thoroughly checking your current pantry supplies and making a precise shopping list to deter impulse purchases.
Utilize coupons and enroll in local store loyalty programs for exclusive discounts.
Embrace meal planning to avoid unnecessary spending.
Consider incorporating meatless meals, as this can contribute to consistent savings over time due to the typically higher cost of meat compared to vegetables and other plant-based options.
Plan meals around these cheap foods when you are broke.
By shopping smartly, you have the power to drastically lower your monthly food bill. Just remember, the key is preparation and discipline.
10. Repairing items instead of replacing them
Repairing items instead of replacing them can be a significant money-saving tactic, especially when budgets are tight. It’s often more cost-effective to fix a piece of furniture, mend a garment, or troubleshoot an appliance than it is to buy new one.
Consider the condition and value of each item before deciding to repair it. If the cost of repair approaches the price of a new item, or if it’s beyond your skill set, researching community resources or seeking professional help may be a wise choice.
11. Practicing the 30-day rule for non-essential purchases
Putting the brakes on impulsive buying can significantly boost your savings, and practicing the 30-day rule is a tried-and-true method to control those urges.
Before you make any non-essential purchase, wait 30 days.
If after a month you still feel the purchase is necessary or meaningful, then consider buying it.
Remember that the goal isn’t to deny yourself enjoyment but to ensure that each purchase is considered and valued. This conscious approach can lead to more satisfaction with the items you do choose to buy and a healthier bank balance.
12. Skip the Car Loan
Opting out of a car loan and finding alternative modes of transportation, such as cycling, walking, or using public transportation, can lead to significant financial savings.
Without a car payment, individuals can redirect the funds that would have gone towards monthly installments, insurance, and maintenance into their savings account.
This strategy can be particularly impactful for those with a goal in mind or working with a low income, as every dollar saved moves them closer to financial stability. Furthermore, the elimination of auto loan interest charges and potential debt can provide a more secure financial footing and peace of mind.
13. Using public transportation or carpooling to reduce fuel costs
Utilizing public transportation or carpooling can be significant in reducing fuel costs, particularly when you’re committed to saving money on a low income. These alternatives to solo driving not only save on fuel but also on parking fees, and wear and tear on your vehicle.
Another option is embracing car-sharing services, especially if you find that you don’t require a car on a daily basis. Services like Turo and Getaround offer the flexibility of having a car when you need one without the constant financial responsibility associated with ownership.
Remember, it’s all about what suits your lifestyle and frequency of need. By assessing how often you need a vehicle and comparing it with the total costs of ownership, car-sharing could be an excellent way to save money.
14. Selling unused or unwanted items for extra cash
Selling unused or unwanted items is a fantastic way to declutter your space and earn extra cash. You might be surprised how much money you can make by letting go of things you no longer use or need. From clothes you’ve outgrown to homeware that’s gathering dust, each item sold can inch you closer to your savings goal.
Take advantage of this opportunity; a thorough home audit could reveal a treasure trove of sellable items right under your nose. Not only does this increase your income, but it also helps you consider future purchases more carefully.
15. Taking advantage of free entertainment and community events
Leveraging free entertainment and community events is a delightfully frugal way to enjoy yourself without breaking the bank. From concerts and exhibitions to workshops and meet-ups, there’s often a wealth of activities that won’t cost you a penny.
In fact, here at Money Bliss, I have the most popular list of things to do with no money.
With a little creativity and resourcefulness, you can uncover a variety of enjoyable and inexpensive things to do.
16. Automating savings to ensure consistent contributions
Automating your savings is a hassle-free way to ensure you consistently contribute to your financial goals.
By setting up an automatic transfer from your checking account to a savings account, you’re essentially paying your future self first.
This ‘set and forget’ approach helps grow your wealth with minimal effort.
17. Negotiating bills and asking for better rates
Many service providers are open to negotiating prices if it means retaining a customer. Whether it’s your cable package, insurance, or even a credit card interest rate, it’s worth having the conversation.
Remember, the worst they can say is no. But often, companies will offer helpful options when they realize you are considering alternatives due to cost concerns.
One phone call could save you $1000 a year – just like when I decreased my cable bill!
18. Evaluating insurance policies for potential savings
When evaluating insurance policies, it’s critical to regularly assess your coverage needs and shop around for the best rates. Comparing policies from different providers annually can reveal opportunities for lowering premiums or finding more suitable coverage.
Utilize online tools and independent insurance agents to ensure a comprehensive review of available options.
Remember to inquire about bundling policies, as this can often lead to significant savings while consolidating your insurance needs effectively.
19. Meal Planning and Prep: Strategies to Reduce Food Waste
By allocating some time each week to plan your meals, you can ensure that you only buy what you need, thereby minimizing waste and cost.
Learning to meal plan starts with looking at a calendar and a local sales flyer to find the low cost deals.
By creating a weekly plan and incorporating budget-friendly recipes, you can not only eat healthier but also avoid the costlier option of dining out.
20. Forgo single use items
By choosing reusable items over single-use ones, you cut down on waste and habitual spending on disposables. This is also known as frugal green.
For instance, investing in a reusable water bottle, rather than buying single use water bottles.
By integrating sustainable products into your life, you also promote a culture of conservation and mindfulness, inspiring others to make eco-friendly choices.
21. Shopping for groceries with a list to avoid impulse buys
This is key! Especially when shopping with kids or a significant other!
Shopping for groceries with a list is a golden rule to avoid impulse buys, which can quickly derail your budget. By planning your purchases beforehand, you stick to the essentials and resist the temptation of sale items that aren’t on your list or don’t fit your meal plan.
Bonus Tip: Remember to always shop on a full stomach – hitting the grocery store hungry is a surefire way to end up with impulse purchases that aren’t on your list!
22. Buying generic brands instead of name brands
Opting for generic brands rather than name brands is a straightforward and effective way to save money on everything from groceries to over-the-counter medications. These products are often of similar quality and effectiveness but come at a significantly lower cost.
By making the switch to generics, especially for regularly used items, the aggregate savings can be substantial over time.
23. Making bulk purchases for commonly used items to save on cost-per-unit
When you buy in larger quantities, the cost per unit typically decreases, leading to savings that add up over time. Bulk buying works best for non-perishable goods or products you use consistently.
Make a point of buying non-perishable items or products with a long shelf life in bulk to avoid waste and ensure that you truly save money with each bulk purchase.
Just make sure you are going to use it!
24. Cutting costs on personal care by DIY methods
DIY methods for personal care are not just a trend – they’re a practical and often healthier alternative to store-bought products. By creating your own beauty and personal care items, you can significantly trim costs and take control of what goes on and into your body.
Even if you’re not the crafty type, consider starting small with something like a DIY sugar scrub or homemade toothpaste. This is something I did over ten years ago. You might discover a new hobby that enhances both your well-being and your budget.
25. Regular maintenance of vehicles and appliances to prevent costly repairs
Keeping on top of maintenance schedules helps prevent major breakdowns that can lead to expensive repairs down the line.
By making regular maintenance a non-negotiable part of your routine, you protect your investments and save yourself from future financial headaches.
I keep a list in my digital to do list, so I never lose track.
26. Shopping at thrift stores, garage sales, or second-hand websites
Shopping at thrift stores, garage sales, or second-hand websites is an excellent way to acquire items at a fraction of the retail cost. Not only are you being financially savvy, but you’re also participating in the circular economy, reducing waste, and often supporting charitable causes.
Shopping second-hand first is not just about saving money—it’s a lifestyle choice. With patience and persistence, it’s amazing what quality items you can find without impacting your wallet heavily.
27. Learning basic sewing to repair clothes
Mastering the basics of sewing to mend your clothes is a skill that pays off in multiple ways. You save money by extending the life of your garments, reducing waste, and developing a practical capability that can come in handy in various situations.
Honestly, sewing a piece of clothes is a very simple thing. Something that must be learned by the younger generations.
Consider setting aside some time to learn sewing basics via online tutorials, community classes, or even from a friend or family member—it’s a practical step toward financial savings and sustainable living.
28. Utilizing coupons and discounts for shopping
Using coupons and discounts strategically can lead to significant savings on your shopping bills. With a little planning and some savvy shopping techniques, you can ensure you never pay full price for essentials and other purchases.
Remember to only use coupons for items you were already planning to purchase; otherwise, you’re not saving money, you’re just spending less on something extra.
29. Consolidating debt to reduce interest rates
Debt consolidation can be a strategic financial move to lower your overall interest rates and simplify your monthly payments. By combining your debts into one loan with a lower interest rate, you can streamline your bills and potentially save significant amounts of money over time.
Make sure to shop around for the best debt consolidation options and read the fine print. The goal is to find a consolidation plan that truly puts you on a faster track to being debt-free without any hidden costs.
30. Tackle High-Interest Debts First to Free Up More Cash
Addressing high-interest debts is paramount in optimizing your financial strategy. Such debts, often from credit cards or payday loans, can spiral out of control if not managed promptly due to their compound interest rates, which can quickly exceed the original amounts borrowed.
This is known as the debt avalanche.
By zeroing in on high-cost debts, you ensure your income is spent more effectively and not wasted on steep interest fees, accelerating your path to financial freedom.
31. Choose the Right High-Yield Savings Account for Your Emergency Fund
Selecting the right high-yield savings account for your emergency fund is an essential move for growing your savings. High-yield accounts offer interest rates significantly higher than standard accounts, ensuring your emergency fund doesn’t stagnate and keeps pace with inflation as much as possible.
This is one of the bank accounts you need.
32. Implement The Envelope System
The Envelope System is a budgeting method that involves physically dividing your cash into envelopes for different spending categories.
Utilizing the cash envelope system promotes disciplined spending by providing a tangible limit on various expense categories, ensuring you stay within your pre-determined budget and facilitating more intentional money management.
This method also offers immediate visual feedback on spending patterns, which can lead to better financial habits and incremental savings as any leftover cash from each envelope can be added directly to a savings fund, making the act of saving more rewarding and motivating.
33. Using cash -back envelopes to track spending
The use of cash-back envelopes takes the traditional envelope budgeting system a step further by rewarding yourself with savings.
Whenever you spend less than the allocated amount in a budget category, you place the cash difference into a “cash-back” envelope, which can be used for saving or investing.
Adopting the cash-back envelope strategy can provide a rewarding twist to budgeting, making it a fun challenge to spend less and save more.
Boost Your Income: Creative Side Hustles and Opportunities
Boosting your income can provide substantial financial relief, particularly when you’ve maximized your ability to cut costs and still find your expenses stretching your budget thin.
Generating extra income, be it through a side hustle or achieving a raise enhances your ability to save and invest.
With additional streams of revenue, you gain more financial flexibility to achieve goals like paying off debt faster, saving for a significant purchase, or building an emergency fund.
Finding a side hustle or part-time job for additional income
Exploring a side hustle or part-time job is a proven way to supplement your income. In today’s gig economy, there are numerous opportunities for flexible work that can be customized to fit your skills and schedule.
A side hustle can not only pad your wallet but also provide an outlet for creativity and passion, possibly even offering a new career trajectory down the line.
Explore Gig Work and Passive Income Streams
Exploring gig work and passive income streams can accelerate your savings efforts, especially when your regular income isn’t enough to reach your financial goals. These alternative income ideas often provide the flexibility to work on your terms and build up earnings over time.
These revenue channels provide a proactive approach to increasing your disposable income. Researching and choosing the best options for your skills and financial situation can help you build a sound extra income strategy.
Take Advantage of Bank Bonuses and Credit Card Bonuses
Banks often offer attractive incentives to new customers, and high-interest savings accounts can grow your deposits at a faster rate than traditional accounts. The same is true for credit card issuers offering big bonuses.
Taking time to research the best offers and account terms can net you a nice bonus and put your money to work earning more money.
Learn How to Invest Your Money
Learning how to invest your money is paramount to building wealth over time. While it can seem intimidating at first, understanding the basics of investing can enable you to take advantage of compounding interest and market growth to increase your savings exponentially.
Start small, stay disciplined, and continually educate yourself as you grow your investment portfolio. Over time, your investments can become a significant source of wealth and financial security.
Learn how to invest in stocks for beginners.
FAQs: Navigating the Path to Low-Income Savings Success
Saving money when your income barely covers your fixed expenses requires a strategic approach. Begin by scrutinizing your budget to cut any non-essential costs.
Look for ways to reduce your fixed monthly expenses, like negotiating bills or refinancing loans.
Every small change can contribute to your savings, so focus on making incremental adjustments that together can enhance your financial situation.
Even when funds are tight, saving money is possible by making small but impactful changes.
Prioritize reviewing your expenses and identifying areas to cut back, such as non-essential subscriptions or eating out.
Round up loose change or small amounts from your daily transactions into savings.
Seek free entertainment options and consider generating additional income through side hustles or selling items you no longer need.
Each penny saved is a step towards your financial cushion.
Setting Realistic Savings Goals and Celebrating Milestones
Setting realistic savings goals is a key to financial success, particularly when managing a low income.
Determine what you can feasibly save without overstretching your budget. Whether it’s $5 or $50 per week, every bit helps.
Celebrating your achievements, no matter how small, can inspire continued discipline and dedication towards your financial objectives.
Being realistic and flexible with your budget will help you manage your finances more efficiently, ensuring that you set aside money for future growth, even when funds are tight.
This is a great step towards habits of financially stable people!
Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!
Did the post resonate with you?
More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!
Your comments are not just welcomed; they’re an integral part of our community. Let’s continue the conversation and explore how these ideas align with your journey towards Money Bliss.
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As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
There are now 526,000 single-family homes active unsold on the market. That’s up 2.6% from the previous week when the data included the Easter holiday. It’s a holiday week jump so it’s not super crazy, but a 2.6% jump in unsold inventory in a week is very notable. This is absolutely a function of high and rising mortgage rates. I’ve been sharing this view for two full years now. As mortgage rates rise, inventory rises. Or, to put it another way: demand slows, inventory grows. So, rates are up and inventory is undeniably growing.
Available inventory of unsold homes on the market is 30% greater than last year at this time and 102% more than in mid-April 2022. There are 120,000 more homes on the market now than there were last year. There are 250,000 more homes on the market now than two years ago. Much of this inventory increase is concentrated is a few key markets.
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Two years ago, rates were obviously rising for the first time in years and inventory was rising too. Inventory was coming off the record lows of the pandemic, but was already increasing 2-3% per week as demand slowed.
Year-over-year inventory growth like this can lead to home-price declines in the future since sales price measures lag way behind the changes in supply and demand. Because we have 30% year-over-year inventory gains now, we’ll be on the lookout for more signals of weakness in home prices as the year progresses.
It’s important to note that we don’t see any signs in the data of a major home-price crash. In early 2022, inventory rose quickly and home prices fell in Q4 of that year. Home prices recovered in 2023 very quickly though. If we finally get some stability in mortgage rates, expect stability also in home prices. If we are in a world of continued rising mortgage rates, supply and demand will continue their imbalance and we’ll likely see price adjustments.
New listings
Inventory growth is from a combination of fewer buyers as affordability worsens, but also gradually improving seller volume. There were 66,000 new listings unsold last week plus another 20,000 immediate sales for 86,000 total new listings. That’s 32% more new listings last week than the same week a year ago.
The measure from last year included last year’s Easter holiday weekend so some of this 32% is from that easy comparison. But each week in 2024 is averaging 13% more sellers than last year at this time. So we have obvious seller growth as we settle into mortgage rates higher for longer.
This concept is counter-intuitive. Many listeners are familiar with the concept of a mortgage rate lock-in. This was the topic of my Top of Mind podcast interview last week with Jonah Coste from FHFA discussing their paper on the lock-in effect.
The lock-in premise is that if rates rise, it becomes more expensive for homeowners to move, so higher rates create more lock-in and fewer sellers. But that’s proving to be only partially true. The lock-in effect keeps us with relatively few sellers: 80,000 instead of 100,000 each week in previous healthy years, but we have more sellers every week than last year even though mortgage rates are higher now.
In fact, there were more new listings last week at 66,000 than any week in 2023 and we have a couple months of spring still for that number to climb.
New pendings
Meanwhile, there were 69,000 new pendings last week. These are homes that were listed, took offers and started the contract process. It takes just under 40 days on average to close the transaction, so these are sales that will close in May for the most part.
The 69,000 contracts is 10% more than a year ago and 7% more than the previous week, which included the Easter holiday. So like the inventory numbers, last week’s big jump is mostly a rebound from the holiday. But it’s really encouraging that sales each week continue to come in ahead of last year.
If rates finally fall, we’ll see this transaction rate accelerate, and we’ll see inventory fall too. But there doesn’t seem to be any inclination of rates falling. This weekly new pendings data is a very handy measure of interest-rate sensitivity.
There are 371,000 single-family homes in contract right now. That’s just 4% more than last year at this time. A lot of places in the country still have fewer sales than last year. The market is trying to grow, but a new jump in mortgage rates doesn’t help. More sales are happening with cash right now, so the mortgage indices are still at record lows. If we get lucky and rates don’t keep climbing, then we’ll continue to see home sales run just a little ahead of last year. The more stable rates stay, the more sales can inch forward.
Home prices
The median price of the homes that took offers last week was $389,900. That is actually below 2022 by 1%. In 2022, home prices still had pandemic momentum into the second quarter. The median price of all the homes in contract is $399,000, which means the homes that sell in April and May will be 5% higher priced than 2023.
The median price of the active market was $447,527 last week. That’s up for the week and 1.7% above last year. The asking prices are leading indicators of where future sales prices will happen. And the growth in those leading indicators is not very strong — just barely above last year at this time.
The price of the newly listed cohort came in pretty strong in the week after Easter at $435,000, which was a new all-time high for that measure. So, not all of the pricing indicators are bearish. That’s good to keep our eyes on.
Price reductions
On the other hand, 32.1% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up a fraction from the previous week, 10 basis points. If this most recent move in mortgage rates is stifling homebuyers, we’ll see the price reductions number jump in next Monday’s video.
Some of the homes that are on the market and expected offers last week didn’t get their offers because of the most recent mortgage rate jump. If they don’t get the offer, then on Monday or Tuesday, a few are going to reduce their asking price to try to stimulate demand.
Two takeaways from the price-reductions data: One, next week we will be watching for how many listings cut their prices as a result of newly higher mortgage rates. We can see that moment in September of 2022 when price cuts jumped and we saw it again last September when rates jumped. Will we see it again in next Monday’s data?
And two, because price cuts are a bit high and climbing now, we have to look at that as a slightly bearish signal for home prices for the rest of the year. Transaction volume is climbing but prices do not appear to be climbing considering these levels of unaffordability.
Visa and Mastercard reached a settlement with U.S. merchants this week that could have some trickle-down effects for consumers if the deal is approved. The agreement would lower credit card interchange fees, which merchants pay to process credit card transactions, and hold them at that reduced rate for several years. It also would limit the surcharges that merchants could impose on customers who pay with credit cards.
This settlement isn’t connected to the Credit Card Competition Act, bipartisan legislation that seeks to introduce greater competition among credit card payment networks in the hopes of lowering interchange fees.
The settlement still has to be approved by a federal court. If it is, here’s how it could affect consumers.
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What the settlement could change
Merchants’ costs of doing business (and maybe your shopping bill)
According to the terms of the settlement, Visa and Mastercard must lower their interchange fees by at least 4 basis points (that’s 0.04 percentage points) for at least three years. For five years, they can’t raise these fees above 2023 levels, and average interchange fees must be at least seven basis points (or 0.07 points) lower than the current average rate. In other words, interchange fee levels would be lowered for five years.
This interchange fee reduction could save merchants $29.79 billion in the five years after the settlement is approved, according to a statement by one of the law firms representing the class of merchants in the lawsuit.
Theoretically, merchants could pass these savings on to consumers in the form of lower prices or at least prices that remain stable over several years. They could also reinvest the savings into their businesses, such as by improving customer service. But there’s no requirement for merchants to do any of these things.
How you choose to pay
Other terms of the settlement put a limit on credit card surcharges, which are additional fees customers sometimes have to pay to use a credit card at checkout. Currently, Mastercard limits surcharge amounts to no more than 4%, while Visa limits surcharges to 3%.
The new surcharge cap would be 1% on Visa or Mastercard cards, regardless of what surcharges merchants impose on cards on other payment networks, such as American Express and Discover. If the merchant doesn’t accept cards on other payment networks, the surcharge is capped at 3%.
Merchants would be allowed to “steer” customers toward paying in certain ways, such as encouraging the use of cards on certain payment networks by offering lower surcharges. This could affect how you choose to pay for purchases based on what terms a merchant offers.
What won’t change
Credit card access and rewards
According to Visa, this settlement wouldn’t affect consumers’ access to credit, nor would it affect credit card rewards programs.
“By negotiating directly with merchants, we have reached a settlement with meaningful concessions that address true pain points small businesses have identified,” Kim Lawrence, Visa’s president for North America, said in a statement. “Importantly, we are making these concessions while also maintaining the safety, security, innovation, protections, rewards and access to credit that are so important to millions of Americans and to our economy.”
The Credit Card Competition Act
Again, this settlement is separate from the proposed Credit Card Competition Act. The settlement is a result of litigation that began in 2005, while the CCCA was first introduced in 2022.
A statement from the Electronic Payments Coalition, which opposes the CCCA, said the settlement eliminates the need for legislation on interchange fees.
“The agreement between merchants, Visa, Mastercard and financial institutions has been decades in the making and treats businesses of all sizes equally without government mandates or jeopardizing consumers’ data security and rewards programs,” EPC executive chairman Richard Hunt said.
The Merchant Payments Coalition, a CCCA proponent, counters that a temporary fee reduction leaves consumers and businesses hanging once the five-year period is over.
“A few years of very small relief followed by business as usual is not a good outcome from 20 years of litigation,” said a statement from Christopher Jones, a member of the merchant coalition’s executive committee and the National Grocers Association’s senior vice president of government relations and counsel. “The settlement does nothing to actually bring competitive market forces to swipe fees or change the behavior of a cartel that centrally fixes rates and bars competition. Instead, it tries to provide token, temporary relief and then allows the card companies to raise rates yet again.”
What’s next?
Nothing is finalized just yet. The settlement must first be approved by the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York. A statement from Mastercard estimates the changes spelled out in the settlement would go into effect in late 2024 or early 2025.
In addition, we can see the price reductions ticking up each week. They aren’t at a scary level, people are buying homes, but it’s notably softer on pricing than last year at this time.
Mortgage rates seem to have finally settled down. The Fed met last week and we escaped dramatic changes in the markets. I was worried that we might come out of that meeting with a spike in mortgage rates but that didn’t materialize so we got lucky.
I like to point out that consumers are more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates than to the absolute levels, and since rates are now basically unchanged for the month, just easing down from the early March peak of 7.2%, sellers and buyers are tip-toeing back into the market.
As a result, we continue to see the signals that home sales volume will grow this year and prices will be mostly flat. The price appreciation signals last year were stronger than they are now.
Housing inventory
The available inventory of unsold homes continued to climb last week.
There are now 513,000 single family homes unsold on the market.
That’s 1.1% more than last week and 24% more than a year ago.
Last year, inventory was still declining in March. Now it’s on the rise.
Inventory will cross over 2020 levels by July. We’ll finish the year with over 600,000 homes on the market unless rates reverse and fall quickly.
Three takeaways from the inventory data now:
1. Growing inventory this year means more sales can happen. More sellers means more sales will happen.
2. Year-over-year inventory growth points to weaker demand and is one of the signals that home prices won’t climb this year. We currently have 24% more homes on the market than a year ago.
3. The longer mortgage rates stay higher, the more inventory will grow closer to the old levels. If you’re a homebuyer and you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you swoop in for a deal, recognize that even slightly lower rates will spur demand more than supply so inventory will start falling and selection and competition will be worse.
New listings
Each week this spring we’ve been tracking the new listings volume. Last week we saw just over 60,000 new listings added to the inventory with another 17,000 new listings / immediate sales. In total, new listings data is 14% more than last year. April is looking good for home sales growth.
A year with 5.5 to 6 million home sales would need probably 80,000 new listings of single family homes right now. And we have 60,000, so there simply aren’t enough homes for sale to hit the big sales numbers, but the lid is being lifted. We can see obvious growth.
Pendings
As supply increases, the rate of sales is starting to pick up compared to a year ago. We can measure home sales in real time by tracking all the homes that moved to contract pending status this week. These “pendings” aren’t yet sold. They’ll spend 30 or 40 days in contract and the sales will mostly close in April or May.
There were 67,000 new contracts for single family homes this week compared to only 62,000 in the same week last year. There were another 15,000 condos into contract. This annualizes to only 4.3 million home sales, without any seasonal adjustment. So obviously the rate of sales is still pretty slow, which makes sense given the high mortgage rates. But the sales rate is climbing. The rate of new contracts is 8% more than last year but still 15% fewer than March of 2022, when buyers were desperately trying to get their deals done as rates were rising.
It looks like April will see decent home sales growth over 2023 but won’t overtake 2022 sales volumes until after July of this year. July of 2022 was when supply and demand fell precipitously. If mortgage rates stay stabilized in the upper 6s, these trends look durable to me.
Home prices
Last week, all the current price measures actually had pretty healthy gains. When we look at all the homes on the market, the median price is now $439,000. That is up a fraction this week and just a little bit higher than last year. Home prices climb this time of year before peaking in June as the best inventory, the most new listings, and the best demand is in the market. This week’s price increase is right in the normal range for the end of March.
The price of new listings took a healthy jump this week, up 1% to $424,900. That’s nearly 4% higher than a year ago. It’s also to be expected that the price of new listings each week in the spring lurch higher. There is no signal of big home price changes in this leading indicator, but it’s nice that this move is up.
Four years ago in March 2022, we were at the start of the pandemic lockdown and we could see the price of the new listings drop very quickly. That price decline only last for three weeks though. And the price of the new listings was one of the important factors that showed us very quickly how there would be no housing crash as a result of the crisis.
The price of the homes going into contract across the country are holding up but also not accelerating. The median price of the new contracts this week was $389,900 — that’s up a fraction from last week and 4% more than a year ago. Home prices peaked in May of 2022 and didn’t surpass that during last year’s spring season. I expect we’ll hit new all-time highs for home prices in the next month or so, assuming these current trends hold.
Price reductions
Most of the signals in the data last week were pretty optimistic. If there is one factor to temper than optimism, it’s the price reductions. The percent of homes on the market with price cuts from their original list price ticked up to 31.4% this week. There are more homes on the market now that have felt the need to reduce asking price than there were a year ago. Last year’s market strength in Q1 and Q2 led to 5% home-price growth for the full year of 2023. We have less strength in pricing now than we did last year.
While price reductions are in the “normal” range, they are higher now than any March in many years. There are more sellers now who have reduced the asking prices on their homes than in any March in over a decade. This last decade was a very strong one for homebuyer demand, so we haven’t seen a “normal” market in a very long time.
This is a signal to pay attention to. It’s hard to see how home prices will grow nationally this year under these circumstances. We can see buyers in the market, but there is no signal of them pushing home prices higher. Sellers who over-price are being forced to reduce.
In March 2022, there were still very few overall homes with price reductions, but that was changing rapidly. The slope started to climb very quickly, especially in April and May of that year. The number peaked in November 2022 with 43% of the homes on the market needing price cuts. That November peak corresponded to home sales price declines four to six months later. That’s why this data is worth watching so closely: These price cuts tell us about demand now, which turns into sales several months down the road.
We can see homebuyers are very sensitive to mortgage rate moves. We can see the price reductions data adjust exactly in the moments that mortgage rates jump higher.
Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist and senior vice president of research and industry technology at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), addressed three major challenges in the housing market during testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives‘ Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance.
The biggest challenge in today’s housing market is the lack of inventory, Fratantoni said in his written statement on Wednesday.
“While the demographic fundamentals of the market continue to support strong housing demand for the next several years, the market is millions of units short of that needed to support this demand,” he said.
The silver lining, however, is that builders have picked up their pace of construction. New homes now account for roughly one-third of homes on the market, which compares to a more typical historical share of 10%.
As a result, a large delivery of multifamily units is expected over the next few years, but the recent trend in elevated mortgage rates has exacerbated this supply shortfall, Fratantoni explained.
Compounding the lack of supply is the proverbial “lock-in“ effect that has disincentivized homeowners to sell their current properties, thereby giving up a low mortgage rate and taking on a new loan at a much higher rate.
“A homeowner that was able to refinance into a low-3% or high-2% mortgage rate is just much less likely to list their property,” Fratantoni told lawmakers. “It doesn’t mean they’re never going to list … but it’s a friction in the system, so it’s going to keep existing inventory much lower than it otherwise would be.
“That’s been a support to home prices, but for someone trying to get into the market, it’s really an obstacle.”
Concerns over Basel III Endgame
Fratantoni also expressed concern that the recent Basel III Endgame proposal would accelerate the trend of the mortgage market shifting away from depository institutions, particularly large banks, toward non-depositories and independent mortgage banks.
The Basel Endgame proposal — issued by the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in July 2023 – boosted capital requirements for residential mortgage portfolios at large U.S. banks in comparison to international standards.
Under the draft proposal, 40% to 90% risk weights would be assigned for large banks that issue residential mortgages, depending on the loan-to-value ratio, which is 20 basis points above the international standard.
MBA’s comment letter highlighted the overly conservative risk weights on mortgages — particularly for low down payment loans favored by first-time homebuyers — and the lack of benefit for loans with mortgage insurance. It also mentioned the punitive treatment of mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) and the burdensome treatment of warehouse lending as being particularly negative for the mortgage market.
The Basel Endgame proposal would increase capital requirements on all three types of mortgage activities by banks — low down payment loans held on balance sheets, mortgage servicing and warehouse lending.
As a result, the Basel Endgame proposal “poses a significant risk to the stability of the housing finance market if it is not modified across all of these dimensions,” Frantantoni stated.
Rising cost of property insurance
Addressing the increased cost of property insurance for both prospective homebuyers and current homeowners is a priority for the MBA.
“The lack of availability and cost of homeowners insurance … it’s not only impacting the ability of borrowers to qualify for a loan, but increasing payments for existing homeowners to such an extent really puts them on an unstable path, so it really is front and center for us right now,” Fratantoni told lawmakers.
The average cost to insure a $300,000 home surged by 12% in 2023, reaching $1,770 per year, according to an Insurify report.
Certain insurance carriers have also limited their participation in natural disaster-prone states like California and Florida, given the increases in risks and costs.
Over the past 18 months, seven of the 12 largest insurance companies by market share in California have either paused or restricted new policies in the state, highlighted by the departures of State Farm and Allstate in June 2023.
Due to these departures and price hikes, the California FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, has seen enrollment double over the past few years.
“Although these increases in premiums and reductions in availability of insurance have been concentrated in certain markets at this point, the concerns regarding property insurance continue to build for our lender members in the residential, multifamily and commercial sectors — and for all their customers,” Fratantoni said.
As we started 2024, the signals in the U.S. real estate market were for inventory growth, sales growth and home-price growth across the U.S. At the time, I observed that even if mortgage rates stayed flat, the momentum seemed to be in the cards for broad, slow growth in the market.
However, mortgage rates didn’t stay flat. They climbed starting Jan. 1 and as of today, March 18, mortgage rates are 30-40 basis points higher than Jan. 1. Rates are off their recent peak of a couple weeks ago, but the latest economic news is still very strong, and the markets are growing less sanguine about interest rates easing significantly soon. Last year, the most common view was that mortgage rates would fall in 2024. That hasn’t materialized yet and many people are less optimistic that it will.
We’ll learn more about the future of interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Although I don’t have any capacity to predict interest rates, I do know what happens to the housing market if rates rise or fall from here.
Of my initial expectations this year — rising inventory, rising sales rates, rising prices — only rising inventory remains clear at this moment as we finish Q1 with rising interest rates. I talk frequently about how rising rates creates rising inventory. That’s true again this week in the data. My other two expectations, slowly rising sales volume, and slowly rising prices, are less compelling. Let’s look at the data.
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Housing inventory
Looking at last week’s numbers:
There are 507,000 single-family homes on the market in the U.S.
That’s 1.3% more than a week prior, 22% more than a year ago, and 105% more than two years ago.
This week in 2022 was the last of the 3% mortgages. Inventory and rates rose in lockstep starting then.
There are 250,000 more homes on the market now then when we exited the pandemic boom in March 2022.
At this moment in 2022, interest rates and inventory had started rising quickly together as the pandemic boom ended. Mortgage rates were still in the 3s in early March 2022. By April they were in the 4s and by May they were in the 5s.
As mortgage rates rise, so do the number of unsold homes: Demand slows, inventory grows. As the economy remains surprisingly strong, mortgage rates are staying higher for longer than people predicted and as long as rates stay high, inventory will keep growing.
While inventory is growing across the country, some markets are way more impacted and already have more homes on the market than in 2019 or 2020 just before the pandemic. Nearly all markets are showing inventory growth over last year now and this is expanding every week.
The takeaway? If mortgage rates continue to rise to 7.5% or all the way to 8% again, we will see a pretty dramatic increase in unsold inventory. But if rates finally fall, let’s say to 6.5% or lower, we’ll see consumers act very quickly and this inventory growth will reverse. Lower rates mean more buyer competition and less unsold inventory.
New listings
Last week, 59,000 new single-family listings came to market. New listings volume continues to run ahead of last year and we see more sellers than last year. In fact, last week, after including the 16,000 immediate sales, there were 24% more new listings than the same week a year ago.
Last year was probably a record low for mid-March as we had very few sellers. For the rest of 2024 we should expect to have more sellers than a year ago, which is a very good thing. It was not that long ago that we had 70,000 or 80,000 new listings each week in March. We’re at 59,000 right now so the seller volume is climbing, but it’s still a third fewer than in recent years. So nationally there isn’t any sign of supply and demand getting out of balance.
Home prices
Demand is slow as mortgage rates continue to stay in the 7s. Supply is gradually increasing and demand is generally soft. As a result, some of the leading indicators for future home sales prices are starting to weaken.
One obvious place to watch this pricing transition is in the percent of homes on the market with price reductions. This week, 30.9% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s up half a percent this week and is now more than a year ago.
It’s totally normal to have around a third of homes on the market take a price reduction from the original list price before they sell. I’m going to watch the slope of this curve as this chart will show exactly how quickly the market reacts to higher mortgage rates. This is a pivotal time for measuring buyer demand.
A longer-term signal is the asking prices of all the homes on the market. The median price of single-family homes in the U.S. right now is $435,000. That’s up a notch from a week earlier and just 1.2% higher than a year ago.
Again, in January I expected this price data to be accelerating a little more quickly than it has. Home prices peak each year in June before receding a bit in the second half of the year. The question now is: will we surpass that all-time high this year or will it get delayed until 2025?
The median price of the new listings inched down to $419,900 last week and the new listings cohort is priced 5% higher than a year ago. The new listings are an excellent leading indicator for future home sales prices. The sellers and listing agents use all their collective wisdom and in aggregate they know exactly where to price the new listing. What this data tells us right now is that across the U.S. we have just narrowly increasing home prices this year so far. The signals are slightly weaker now than the data at the start of the year led me to expect.
Pending sales
This week saw 66,000 new contracts for single-family homes started. That’s 15% more than the same week a year ago. Since mortgage rates have been on the rise this year, the sales have been just barely above last year, so this week was probably a bit of an anomaly, but it is welcome nonetheless.
When we look at the price of the homes in contract but not yet sold — these are the pendings — we see that home sales prices are coming in about 4% higher than a year ago. The median price of all the homes in contract right now is $389,000. Home prices ended 2023 at 5-6% gains over the previous year, so home-price appreciation is compressing as mortgage rates have risen.
If rates stay steady around 7%, I don’t expect much price correction lower. If mortgage rates jump from here, I expect that we’ll see a step down in home prices like we saw in October of 2022.
Greece continues to have the worst performance in household credit, registering a consistently negative rate, which was -1.7% in January against a 0.3% increase in the eurozone, according to a report published on Thursday by DBRS Morningstar, focusing on the “slow production of new mortgage loans.”
The rise in interest rates and high inflation have made the growth rate of loans in the eurozone shrink, as it plunged from 4.5% in the first half of 2022 to a marginally positive rate in 2023. This contrasts with a steady contraction in Greece, due to large repayments exceeding new disbursements.
The aversion to borrowing by households is observed despite the fact that the vast majority of new mortgage disbursements in Greece are at fixed interest rates, which, through successive reductions made by Greek banks recently, have fallen to historic lows.
Fixed term rates start at 3% for a 3-year term, while last week Eurobank further reduced the 10-year fixed rate and above by 0.30 points, which starts at 4.10% and reaches 4.30% for periods of 15, 20, 25 and 30 years.
As DBRS observes, the high interest income of Greek banks, which increased by 51% year-on-year, is mainly linked to the strengthening of the portfolio of business loans, which grew by 5.1% in 2023, against an average increase of just 0.2% in the eurozone, despite stricter lending criteria, high interest rates and high repayments.
Interest income amounted to 8.1 billion euros at the end of 2023 compared to €5.4 billion in 2022 and according to DBRS this is mainly due to the overall better performance of the Greek economy, as well as the disbursement of loans linked to the country’s growth and the Recovery Fund funds, which “will continue to support the growth of the loan portfolio combined with some recovery foreseen for new mortgages.”
Fee income in 2023 was €1.8 billion compared to €1.7 billion in 2022, up 7%, driven by increased trading income, grant activity and sales growth activity investment and bancassurance products.