Sales of newly built single-family homes in the United States soared in March despite mortgage rates remaining elevated that month.
New home sales, which make up about 10% of the market, jumped 8.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000, according to government figures released Tuesday. That trounced the 670,000 rate projected by economists, according to a FactSet poll, and was the strongest monthly increase since December 2022.
Sales of new homes increased across the country last month, rising the most in the Northeast region by a robust 27.8% from February.
Meanwhile, sales of existing homes, which make up the vast majority of the housing market, fell 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the sharpest drop in more than a year, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
Housing market poised to remain difficult
The broader US housing market is expected to remain tough for Americans, with mortgage rates poised to stay well above 6% this year, economists say. The Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and the central bank isn’t expected to cut interest rates anytime soon. A persistent undersupply of housing also remains a key pressure point in the market, contributing to low affordability.
Housing inventory has improved in recent months, but supply still isn’t keeping up with demand. This means homebuyers have limited options as some homeowners who locked in a low mortgage rate before the Fed began to hike rates in 2022 largely prefer to not sell their homes.
“Despite high prices and mortgage rates, homebuyers have limited options on the resale market, although resale inventories have improved some over the course of this year,” Gregg Logan, managing director at RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, said in a note Tuesday.
“The willingness of the major homebuilders to utilize incentives such as price reductions, mortgage rate buy-downs and paying buyers closings costs continue to support a healthy pace of new home sales,” he added.
A stalled housing market recovery?
The housing market began the year with some momentum as home sales surged, homebuilder sentiment perked up and inventory levels climbed, but now it seems to have fizzled out.
In addition to the March drop in existing home sales, residential construction of single-family homes also fell that month, declining 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units, according to Commerce Department data released earlier this month. Residential construction fell throughout the country except in the West. Meanwhile, building permits for future construction tumbled 3.7% in March to a five-month low.
Data from the National Association of Home Builders showed that 22% of builders cut homes prices in April, down from 24% in March. Meanwhile, the share of builders who offered a sales incentive edged lower to 57% in April from 60% in March. Sentiment among homebuilders in America held steady in April, NAHB said.
“April’s flat reading suggests potential for demand growth is there, but buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed,” NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz, said in a release.
This story has been updated with additional context.
Were the good old days really all that good? Sure, when mortgage rates were below 3%, it was a lot cheaper to purchase a house, but we were also in the middle of a global pandemic.
At the start of 2021, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, according to data from Freddie Mac. During the homebuying boom of 2020 and 2021, the number of borrowers taking out new mortgages reached a more than two-decade high.
Over the past two years, a combination of high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and sluggish wage growth has crippled affordability for homebuyers.
While many are holding out for mortgage rates to fall, it’s unlikely we’ll see 2% mortgage rates any time soon. In fact, experts hope we don’t.
A return to that kind of low-rate environment would indicate major problems in the economy, said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Mortgage rates typically fall during a recession. But a recession also comes with widespread unemployment, increased debt, investment losses and overall financial instability.
In today’s housing market, homebuyers should have realistic expectations. Experts predict mortgage rates to inch closer to 6% by the end of the year as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. Record-low mortgage rates aren’t in the cards again, and that’s likely for the best.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How did mortgage rates drop below 3% in the first place?
Economic uncertainty and market volatility — whether during an election cycle or a pandemic — impact the direction of mortgage rates. It’s often said that bad news for the economy is good news for mortgage rates, and vice versa.
A significant lever for mortgage rates is the federal funds rate, which the Fed keeps low when it needs to stimulate economic growth. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed that benchmark rate to zero to bolster the economy. When there were signs of recovery in 2015, the central bank started raising interest rates again, sending mortgage rates into the 4% to 5% range until 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic sparked another economic crisis. To incentivize people to borrow and spend money — and avoid a prolonged recession — the Fed once again cut the federal funds rate to near zero and pumped money into the economy by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage interest rates fell quickly, bottoming out in the mid-2% range in 2021.
But the combination of supply shocks, record-low rates and an extreme increase in money supply from government stimulus helped send prices way up, according to Erin Sykes, chief economist at NestSeekers International.
In early 2022, the Fed had a new problem on its hands: inflation.
💰 Federal Reserve monetary policy
In a recession, the Federal Reserve tries to spur economic growth through quantitative easing, a monetary policy that consists of cutting the federal funds rate to encourage lending and borrowing to consumers, and increasing its purchase of government-backed bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
If the Fed needs to slow the economy down and reduce the money supply in financial markets, it does opposite: quantitative tightening. By increasing the federal funds rate and tapering its bond-buying programs, the central bank raises the cost of borrowing money, which puts upward pressure on longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
What caused mortgage rates to surge again?
With prices surging in 2022, the Fed’s main tool was to adjust interest rates, making credit more expensive and disincentivizing borrowing. As a result of a string of aggressive rate hikes, the federal funds rate went from near zero to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it’s remained since last summer. Average mortgage rates skyrocketed, peaking past 8% last October.
Although inflation has gone down, the Fed isn’t ready to start lowering rates just yet. The central bank would like to see evidence of a weaker economy (including consistently lower inflation and higher unemployment) before making any adjustments to its monetary policy.
📈 How the Fed impacts mortgage rates
Though the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it controls the federal funds rate, a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. When the federal funds rate moves up, it impacts longer-term interest rates, like 30-year fixed mortgage rates, as banks raise interest rates on home loans to keep their profit margins intact.
Why won’t mortgage rates move toward 2% again?
Economists and housing market experts agree that mortgage rates will fall over the next several years, but not below 3%.
When mortgage rates hit their record lows just a few years ago, the federal funds rate was near zero. As the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, the plan is to do so slowly and incrementally. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects the federal funds rate will take only modest adjustments down.
In the most recent policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the federal funds rate “will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw” during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more “neutral” benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much easing from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed would be forced to lower rates close to zero only if there were a dramatic economic shock, such as a pandemic or recession, said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. In that case, if the central bank started purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities again, there’s a possibility mortgage rates could return to those record lows.
However, without such an upheaval, there’s a floor under how low mortgage rates will go, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll ever drop to their 2020-2021 levels.
“With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative easing and stepping out of the market for mortgage-backed securities, rates will settle at a much higher level,” said Matthew Walsh, housing economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics predicts mortgage rates will stabilize between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years. That’s high compared with the recent past, yet it’s a historically normal range for mortgage rates.
How can homebuyers adapt to higher mortgage rates?
The housing market is frustrating, but prospective homebuyers are starting to come to terms with this new reality. Following the pandemic, people are moving on with their lives, whether that’s building a family, relocating, downsizing or upgrading.
For some households, that means making room in their budget for a monthly mortgage payment at a 6% or 7% rate.
When you monitor mortgage rate movement, you’re usually looking at national averages determined by weekly rate information provided by lenders. While those rates give a picture of the “typical” mortgage rate, that’s not necessarily the rate you’ll get when applying for a mortgage.
It’s possible to get a better deal on your mortgage.
To qualify for a mortgage, most lenders require you to have a minimum credit score of 620, but lenders offer the lowest mortgage rates to consumers with excellent credit scores, around 740 and above.
You might also consider purchasing mortgage points, also known as discount points. This is an extra fee you pay upfront in exchange for a lower interest rate. Each mortgage point typically costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and will lower your mortgage rate by 0.25%.
A shorter-term loan like a 15-year or 10-year mortgage will have a lower interest rate than a 30-year fixed mortgage. Your monthly payments will be higher with a shorter-term loan because you’re paying the loan off in less time, but you’ll save big on interest.
Buying a home is likely the biggest transaction you’ll make in your lifetime. Regardless of the market, carefully assess your needs and what you can afford.
Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
Housing inventory
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
New listings
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
Pending sales
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
Home prices
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Price reductions
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
Wire fraud prevention firm CertifID and big four title firm Old Republic have entered into a strategic agreement to prevent mortgage payoff fraud, according to an announcement on Thursday.
Mortgage payoff fraud occurs when a title company mistakenly sends payoff funds to a fraudulent bank account after receiving wire instructions that appear to be from the mortgage servicer. The instructions, however, are actually from fraudsters.
“Old Republic Title continues to focus on innovation to enable the success of our direct and agency operations,” Carolyn Monroe, the president and CEO of Old Republic National Title Holding Co., said in a statement. “We are excited to leverage the comprehensive approach to fraud prevention that CertifID provides, inclusive of software, insurance, and recovery and support services, to help prevent fraud and create the best experiences for our agents and customers, and all parties involved in real estate transactions.”
Although fewer home sale transactions closed in 2023, fraudsters continued to be active, with the FBI reporting that fraud loss in the real estate sector reached $446 million in 2023.
Data from CertifID shows that mortgage payoff fraud has become the largest source of losses among title firms, with the median loss coming in at $257,000 in 2023. Additionally, a study by the American Land Title Association found that roughly 17% of title companies have sent money to an incorrect account due to fraud, and 49% of those organizations have done so more than once.
In a statement, CertifID CEO Tyler Adams said that he applauds Old Republic for taking the initiative to help reduce the risk of mortgage payoff fraud.
“We look forward to working together to truly solve the issue of payoff fraud seen across the industry,” Adams added.
In 2023, Old Republic’s title segment reported net fee and premium earnings of $2.563 billion, down 33.2% compared to 2022, and a pretax income of $133.5 million, a drop of 56.7%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) this week announced a new product proposal for government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Freddie Mac that would allow the agency to purchase certain single-family, closed-end second mortgages.
This would offer borrowers an alternative way to access their home equity without surrendering a first mortgage with a more favorable interest rate than is currently available.
The proposal, published in the Federal Register, recognizes that existing borrowers “face limited options” if they seek to access equity on their primary residence, particularly if they have a mortgage rate from a loan originated during the low-rate environment of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“[A] traditional cash-out refinance today may pose a significant financial burden, as it requires a refinancing of the entire outstanding loan balance at a new, and likely much higher, interest rate,” FHFA said in its proposal. “Homeowners may also use second mortgages to access the equity in their homes, [where] only the smaller, second mortgage would be subject to the current market rate, as the original terms of the first mortgage would remain intact.”
Second mortgages are also typically offered at a lower interest rate than certain alternative products like personal loans, so Freddie Mac’s proposal is to purchase “certain closed-end second mortgage loans from primary market lenders” that are already approved to sell mortgages to Freddie Mac, the proposal states.
“In a closed-end second mortgage loan, the borrower’s funds are fully disbursed when the loan closes, the borrower repays over a set time schedule, and the mortgage is recorded in a junior lien position in the land records,” FHFA stated. “Freddie Mac has indicated that the primary goal of this proposed new product is to provide borrowers a lower cost alternative to a cash-out refinance in higher interest rate environments.”
FHFA Director Sandra Thompson explained that such options are needed in the current mortgage rate environment.
“The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes,” Thompson said in an announcement of the proposal. “Reviewing and considering comments from the public will be a critical component of our review as the agency exercises its statutory responsibility to evaluate new enterprise products.”
This is specifically designed to benefit consumers during the high rate environment, the agency said.
“In the current mortgage interest rate environment, a closed-end second mortgage may provide a more affordable option to homeowners than obtaining a new cash-out refinance or leveraging other consumer debt products,” the proposal explained. “A significant portion of borrowers have low interest rate first mortgages, and the proposal would allow those homeowners to retain this beneficial interest rate on the first mortgage and avoid resetting to a higher rate through a cash-out refinance.”
The Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992, as amended by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008, requires the GSEs to provide advance notice to FHFA of any potential actions or products they aim to pursue. This notice demonstrates that FHFA is fulfilling its mandate and seeks public comments on the proposal.
The comment period lasts 30 days from the publication of the proposal in the Federal Register, making May 16, 2024, the end of the comment period. Interested parties can submit comments to the agency on its website or via email.
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast, where we answer your real-world money questions. In this episode:
Explore how to protect yourself from identity fraud, understand its emotional toll and learn fraud recovery steps.
How can you protect yourself from identity theft and fraud?
What steps should you take if you become a victim of financial fraud?
Hosts Sean Pyles and Sara Rathner delve into the unsettling world of identity theft and fraud prevention to help listeners safeguard their finances and wellbeing. They begin with a discussion on the various facets of identity theft, with tips and tricks on identifying fraudulent activity, enhancing personal banking security and dealing with the aftermath of having your identity compromised. Then, they discuss the differences between identity fraud and scams, the importance of good cyber hygiene, and the steps to take immediately if your personal information is breached.
Sean also speaks with John Breyault, Vice President of Public Policy, Telecommunications and Fraud at the National Consumers League, about the current trends in identity theft and the forms of fraud that are on the rise in 2024. They cover topics such as new account fraud, the impact of zero-day vulnerabilities on personal data security and the necessity for consumers to stay vigilant with software updates and report incidents promptly.
They also explore how victims can navigate the process of recovering from fraud, including freezing credit reports, changing passwords, and engaging with financial institutions and law enforcement to document the crime and seek restitution.
Check out this episode on your favorite podcast platform, including:
NerdWallet stories related to this episode:
Episode transcript
This transcript was generated from podcast audio by an AI tool.
Sean Pyles:
So there you are just going along with your life, running errands, finishing work projects, walking the dog, making lunch, paying bills, and then you realize, something is very, very wrong. Someone has gotten into your accounts and stolen your money.
Charlene MacNeil:
August 28th was a normal day. I took my cat to the vet, went and got groceries. That morning, I checked my online banking just to make sure I had enough money to do everything. It just seemed like a normal day and then everything changed that evening when I got that email.
Sean Pyles:
Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast. I’m Sean Pyles.
Sara Rathner:
And I’m Sara Rathner.
Sean Pyles:
We’re back with our Nerdy deep dive into identity theft, fraud, and scams, and their potentially devastating effects on your finances if you become a victim. As we said last episode, and we’ll continue to reiterate over and over, these crimes do not discriminate. Absolutely anyone can find themselves in deep water with their money situation because these financial criminals have so very many tools and options at their disposal.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah. And, Sean, I think we also want to repeat the message that this doesn’t just happen to you because you’re ignorant or careless. It happens because as our guest last week said, “We have to be 100% right all the time.” We have to be watching our accounts and changing our passwords, realizing we’re talking to someone who’s pretending to be from a bank, etc., etc. And the criminal only has to be right once to get what they’re after. So if they catch you in a moment where you’re tired or hangry, they might just do that.
Sean Pyles:
So the last thing that you should feel is embarrassed or ashamed if you do become a victim of ID theft or a scam. Angry and upset, yes, ashamed, no. The more we all talk about it, the more educated we become and the harder we make it for the thieves and scammers.
Sara Rathner:
Yes. Let’s take our power back.
Sean Pyles:
Yes. So last week we talked about identity theft, how it happens, what to be on the lookout for, and how to protect yourself as much as possible. Today we’re going to look at the next step in that process, which is the identity fraud that happens after the theft.
Sara Rathner:
It’s the credit card opened in your name. It’s the tax return that isn’t really yours. It’s the healthcare account that also isn’t yours that gets the thief medical care on your dime. Listener, we’re going to help you understand what it looks like, how to avoid it, and what to do if it happens to you.
Sean Pyles:
All right, well, we want to hear what you think too, listeners. Tell us your stories of identity theft or share how you’re working to fight it or recover from it. Leave us a voicemail or text the Nerd hotline at (901) 730-6373. That’s (901) 730-NERD, or email a voice memo to [email protected].
Sara Rathner:
So, Sean, where do we start today?
Sean Pyles:
Well, we’re going to start today with a real world tale of identity fraud. We’re hearing from Charlene MacNeil, a mom from Alberta, Canada. She’s got a story about what happened when someone was able to get into her account at BMO Bank, a subsidiary of the Bank of Montreal. Then after Charlene, we’re going to talk with an expert in ID fraud, who’s seen it all in his capacity at the National Consumers Union. Charlene MacNeil, welcome to Smart Money.
Charlene MacNeil:
Hello. Thanks for having me.
Sean Pyles:
Charlene, you experienced a form of bank account fraud. When did you first realize that something was wrong?
Charlene MacNeil:
On August 28th, I had just put my kids to bed and I got an email pop up on my cell phone saying that I had a credit limit alert from BMO and it told me that I had $33 left in my account.
Sean Pyles:
And so that was an indication that you didn’t have sufficient funds or maybe your credit was run up. What were you thinking when you first saw that?
Charlene MacNeil:
I panicked when I saw the $33. It just didn’t make sense. So I immediately went onto my online banking and noticed that my line of credit was maxed to the $15,000 mark.
Sean Pyles:
And what steps did you take once you realized that something was very wrong with your account?
Charlene MacNeil:
I immediately called BMO and just told them the email that I got and she told me that she would cancel my card right away and my account and to go to the branch immediately the next day to file a report of what had happened.
Sean Pyles:
So the next day, did you go in and talk with them about that?
Charlene MacNeil:
Yeah, I went in the next morning and I told her what had happened and she had told me that there was a text message that was sent to me like a one-time passcode, and I tried to think back to the day before because I do get text messages or calls from scammers sometimes, but that summer I felt like I had gotten quite a few, but I just kind of always ignored them, so I didn’t really think much of it. And then when she was looking at my account, she asked me if I knew the company Wise, because she noticed that’s where the money had been sent and I Googled Wise right away because I didn’t know what she was talking about.
And when I Googled it, it said international money sending. So she was, “Oh, that’s a red flag. That’s crazy.” She made me feel like we should be able to get the money back, that she would fill out this report and send it off and it should be okay. What had happened was they took my line of credit money, transferred it to my checking account, and they set up a bill payment to the company Wise, and then they sent out the money that way through a bill payment.
Sean Pyles:
So a slightly convoluted way to get the money that you had from your line of credit over to them essentially?
Charlene MacNeil:
Yes, exactly.
Sean Pyles:
And so it seems like things are maybe going, okay, this was a frustrating experience, but you thought you were going to be able to get your money back?
Charlene MacNeil:
Yeah, I went back to work and I felt relieved. “Okay, that’s done. It should be fine.”
Sean Pyles:
But that’s not what ended up happening.
Charlene MacNeil:
No. Two days later, the teller that had helped me, she called me and started the conversation with, “I have some very unfortunate news. They will not refund that money to your line of credit.” And my heart fell because I was just, “What do you mean?”
Sean Pyles:
And this was $15,000 they said they weren’t going to refund?
Charlene MacNeil:
I had a balance on there before. So really they just took whatever I had left in my line of credit and sent it out, so it was like $9,700.
Sean Pyles:
And what reason did they give you for why you wouldn’t be able to get this money back?
Charlene MacNeil:
They had told me that they tried reaching out to Wise, but the money had already been transferred. So whoever the bill was made out to through the company, they had the money and that’s it. They couldn’t get the money back, but she did say, “If you want, we could escalate this and see if there’s something else that they could do.”
Sean Pyles:
Because there have to be some kind of protections. This was an instance of fraud. You didn’t authorize this transfer of money?
Charlene MacNeil:
No, but as this continued on, they kept saying that I had gotten this one time passcode sent to me August 28th at 4:20 p.m., but I don’t recall entering this six digit code that they’re telling me that I entered. But from their records, it shows I entered the code and that it was all good.
Sean Pyles:
It’s also possible that someone could have somehow gained access to your phone number or gotten that code themselves. Correct?
Charlene MacNeil:
That’s what I am trying to explain to them. I just know that I didn’t enter this code.
Sean Pyles:
So did you end up escalating this then?
Charlene MacNeil:
I did. I escalated it three times and then I finally got a final response just saying that it’s really unfortunate, but we can’t get that money back. And they just kept telling me it’s the one-time passcode and that’s the reason why the money was sent out that I pretty much authorized it to be sent out.
Sean Pyles:
I’m really sorry to hear that. Do you know how the people were able to get into your account?
Charlene MacNeil:
I don’t know. I just have a lot of people just giving me different ideas of how maybe it could have happened. I had a conference in Vegas at the beginning of August and it was on the news that Vegas was having issues with scammers.
Sean Pyles:
Was it an issue with people getting on public Wi-Fi and logging into their bank accounts?
Charlene MacNeil:
That or people also told me that maybe somebody walked by my purse and scanned my purse, but people have told me that too, thinking it’s because of the Wi-Fi.
Sean Pyles:
So I’m wondering, Charlene, how has this experience made you feel about the safety of your money? Have you thought about switching banks, anything like that?
Charlene MacNeil:
I’m very nervous because it blows my mind to think that somebody can get onto your online banking and then move money like that without a signature or maybe voice recognition or something. I shut down my line of credit now and I’m kind of waiting to hear what’s going to happen, but I am really considering moving banks. I wish this almost happened on a credit card because I feel like credit card companies have your back more than the bank.
Sean Pyles:
Yeah. Your story brings me back to a theme which is that fraud, scams, anyone can experience these things and it’s not like you followed a typical playbook of seeing a text message come through on your phone or clicking a link in email and entering your login credentials. You don’t know how someone got your information. It just exemplifies that you could be doing everything right and somehow people could still get your information and still get into your bank.
Charlene MacNeil:
Yeah, exactly. August 28th was a normal day. I took my cat to the vet, went and got groceries. That morning, I checked my online banking just to make sure I had enough money to do everything. It just seemed like a normal day and then everything changed that evening when I got that email.
Sean Pyles:
What do you think your next steps will be?
Charlene MacNeil:
I’m not very hopeful, to be honest. It’s something that I just have to accept. And I mean, I’ve done better the last couple months, but in the beginning it was very difficult. I lost lots of sleep, missed some work. It was very stressful. And you feel like you’re the one that did something wrong.
Sean Pyles:
Well, I’m sorry that you experienced this. I’m wondering if there’s anything that you would like listeners to keep in mind as they try to protect themselves and their finances online?
Charlene MacNeil:
Yeah, I mean it’s so important to be checking your banking probably daily just to make sure everything is going as you think. Be very careful, I guess, on public Wi-Fi. I was actually just on a trip with my family to Mexico and so many people use public Wi-Fi. And I did in Vegas just to load my boarding passes.
I did not check my online banking. I know a lot of people when they hear me say that I was on public Wi-Fi in Vegas. I did not check my online banking, but I was on public Wi-Fi and I guess people can be sitting in that room and gain all of your information. So I don’t know. I don’t want people to be paranoid, but I kind of feel paranoid.
Sean Pyles:
It might not be a bad idea in the year 2024 when if you’re on a public Wi-Fi network, someone who’s also on that can get into your device very easily. That’s the truth of where we are right now.
Charlene MacNeil:
Yes, and I heard once they’re in, then they can be in there for a while. If I would’ve checked my online banking a day or two later, they could have seen me enter my codes. Yeah, it’s very invasive.
Sean Pyles:
Well, Charlene, thank you for sharing your story with us today.
Charlene MacNeil:
Well, thank you for hearing me.
Sara Rathner:
Sean, this just makes me so sad and angry that anybody has to deal with this because it’s just not fair. It’s not a fair fight against these really savvy identity thieves.
Sean Pyles:
It’s really not. And what’s so worrisome to me about Charlene’s story is that she still can’t pinpoint exactly how these criminals got into her account. Again, it just shows that this kind of fraud can happen to anyone, but as tempting as it might be to just throw up your hands and yell, “I give up,” that just feeds the beast and doesn’t do us any good.
Sara Rathner:
Well, I’m looking forward to some advice on how to avoid all of this and anything that we could do to keep it from happening to us, to me, to my loved ones, and of course to our listeners.
Sean Pyles:
Well, our next guest will walk us through some of what happens when you’re the victim of identity fraud and give advice on how to avoid it and recover from it if it does happen to you. John Breyault is Vice President of Public Policy Telecommunications and Fraud at the National Consumers League. That’s coming up. Stay with us.
John, thanks so much for joining us on Smart Money.
John Breyault:
Hey, thanks for having me on the show. I really appreciate it.
Sean Pyles:
So last week we spent some time explaining identity theft and the various ways that bad actors can steal our IDs from us. And today, we’re going to explore what they do with all that information once they’ve got it. So I’d like to start by asking you to explain maybe the difference between ID fraud and scams. We’re going to talk about scams in our next episode, but what differentiates the two?
John Breyault:
Both scams and ID theft, we call fraud, right? It’s a crime where it involves typically a scammer trying to acquire information or funds that they can use for their own purposes. So identity fraud is definitely a subset of fraud overall, but it is certainly one of the biggest subsets.
So we know that, for example, the Federal Trade Commission every year puts out their Consumer Sentinel Data Book. It’s a compilation of millions of fraud complaints that they get from agencies and organizations like mine all over the country. And in 2022, which is their most recent data, they received 5.2 million fraud reports and the number one category that they heard about was identity theft. And so clearly this continues to be a major problem that the biggest enforcement agency out there is hearing about. Definitely identity theft is one of the biggest types of fraud, and one I think we continue to see consumers of every age level, every education level, every demographic be victimized by.
Sean Pyles:
And when you think about specific ways that ID fraud and scams can manifest, what makes them distinct?
John Breyault:
I think what makes each scam distinct is often, number one, what is the entry point for the scammer? Is it one where they have to interact with the victim, say by sending them a link that the consumer clicks on and then provides the data to the identity for the scammer that’s then used to commit fraud? Or is this something where the scammers can commit identity fraud really with no interaction with the victim at all?
We know, for example, that due to data breaches, that’s practically limitless information about almost every American out there on criminal forums on the dark web that can be used to basically commit identity theft as a service. With a few hundred dollars in Bitcoin, you too can hire an identity thief to do things like start bogus credit card accounts in your name or try and get healthcare benefits or unemployment insurance. These are all very common types of identity theft that’s out there, and that doesn’t require any of us to do anything.
Sean Pyles:
So you touched on this a little bit, but John, can you give us a sense of what you’re seeing out there right now? What are some of the most prevalent forms of identity fraud in 2024?
John Breyault:
Yeah, I would say some of the fastest growing types of identity theft is new account fraud. It’s not necessarily a new type of identity theft. We’ve seen scammers using information to create new credit card accounts for decades at this point, but certainly it is returning to its previous position as one of the top types of identity fraud. And it’s happening because the resources that identity thieves were devoting to government benefits fraud is going down. As those pandemic relief programs start to wind down, there’s less money for the identity thieves to steal. And so they’ve gone back to some of the tried and true types of identity fraud.
Sean Pyles:
Is there anything that’s relatively new that consumers should know about that maybe they haven’t really heard about?
John Breyault:
What we have seen over the past year has been a staggering increase in the number of data breaches attributable to what are called zero-day vulnerabilities. And if you’ve never heard of a zero-day vulnerability, that’s okay. Basically what it means is it’s a vulnerability that nobody else has identified. Think of it as having a key to a vault that nobody else has, and until the people who own that vault figure out that you have that key, they have no reason to try and solve the problem or change the lock.
Sean Pyles:
So this could be something like a weakness in our phones’ operating systems that allows a bad actor to get into our phones.
John Breyault:
Yes, exactly. It’s operating systems like Windows. It is browsers that can be hacked. It could be Microsoft Office. Really any software program can have a zero-day vulnerability. And so what’s concerning to us is just the increase in breaches that were attributable to zero days. It’s gone up. I believe the number that the ITRC cited was by more than 100% over the past 12 months.
Sean Pyles:
Do we know why this might be? Is it that software developers are maybe pushing out code a bit faster than they should and they aren’t combing through for vulnerabilities? Or is it that hackers are really zeroing in on these vulnerabilities and trying to exploit them?
John Breyault:
Well, I think that’s the $64,000 question, as they say. We have theories on how that is. One of the more worrying ones is that the scammers have learned how to automate their search for zero-day vulnerabilities using artificial intelligence. And if they’re able to search for these zero days at scale, a very low cost, that is scary because I think AI has revolutionized so many other facets of our economy and businesses and government over the past several years.
It definitely has the potential to do the same thing when it comes to fraud. I think many of us who work on fraud and identity theft on a daily basis, we are thinking of the potential of this as the same kind of potential for supercharging fraud and scams that we saw when the internet sort of became a technology that everybody was using. That’s the kind of scale of the threat that’s out there.
Sean Pyles:
And so when people get notifications on their phone saying, “Oh, you have a new software update to patch a security vulnerability,” this might be something that is being addressed. Correct? And it’s important for people to actually update their phones regularly so that they are having the most secure software possible?
John Breyault:
Yes. Cyber hygiene is definitely one of the lowest cost and easiest ways for consumers to reduce their risk of falling victim to identity fraud because once they are detected, the operating systems and browser makers are usually pretty quick to plug the hole. But that is often dependent on consumers paying attention to those little pop-up boxes that say, “Do you want to update your browser? Do you want to update windows?” And actually taking action. Definitely don’t wait to update. Make sure you do that because it really is one of the easiest ways to reduce your risk.
Sean Pyles:
So, John, walk us through some of the ways that listeners can protect themselves from identity fraud. We heard last week about protections from identity theft. So let’s assume that the theft has already happened and now we have to react to prevent the fraud. What are some first steps here?
John Breyault:
Well, number one, I would say act quickly. We know that identity theft is a crime that often relies on consumers doing nothing. If you know that your information has been compromised, take steps to reduce your risk. For many people, that’s going to start with freezing their credit report. All of the major credit reporting bureaus offer consumers the ability to freeze credit.
Number two, I would say try and limit the damage to the extent you can. For example, particularly if your primary email address has been compromised, that can be the entry point for scammers to take over lots of other accounts, your bank accounts, your social media accounts. So definitely change the password on your primary email account right away and turn on two-factor authentication as well to add an additional layer that the scammers have to get through. They’re going to try and use that entry point.
I would do the same for any financial accounts that you may have linked to that email account. In addition, call the banks and let them know what’s going on so that they can place fraud alerts on your accounts. And then finally, make sure and get a police report. Identity theft is a crime in all 50 states, but consumers, I think particularly if you start to see activity related to identity theft, having that report is often documentation that will be needed to get the kind of help from not just law enforcement, but also from banks and other entities that you’ll need.
I think, unfortunately, we know that local police departments aren’t always super excited to create those reports, so you may have to be persistent to do that, but definitely local police departments is the place I would start. And then work your way up to the State Attorney General and ultimately the Federal Trade Commission.
Sean Pyles:
Related to what you were just discussing, let’s go a step further. So let’s say someone took your information and then fraud happened before you could get to it. Who should you really go to for help? Let’s talk about reporting it and starting to deal with the fallout of fraud.
John Breyault:
Yeah. Once fraud has occurred, typically you still have rights. For example, an identity thief created a credit card in your name and started running a bunch of charges. You aren’t liable for that, but you’re going to need to take steps like have that identity theft affidavit and a police report ready to show to creditors who may wonder why you haven’t been paying your credit card bill that you just opened weeks ago. So definitely I would say getting those reports is going to be one key piece of information to have.
Also, call and talk to the entities who the identity thief is using in your name. Let them know who you are, what’s been going on, and see what you can do to address the fraud. Most of us don’t spend all day every day recovering from identity theft, but most of the financial institutions do have people who are devoted to helping you through that journey. But you’ve gotta keep records of that. Grab a notebook, create a little Word document on your computer, and start logging every communication that you have with those entities so that you can create a paper trail because you can’t just depend on them to know where you are in the process and to ensure that in one place they’re going to quickly try and use that information to commit identity theft in other places as well.
Sean Pyles:
Earlier in this episode, I spoke with a woman who experienced a form of bank fraud. A fraudster got access to her line of credit, and her bank didn’t offer much in the way of resolving the issue. She didn’t get her money back. And I’ve heard other similar stories before. What sort of recourse do people in that situation have to try to recoup their losses?
John Breyault:
Generally, if the consumer victim is not the one who is actually hitting send on the money transfer, whether it’s through a payment app or through a wire transfer from your bank, then you have protections under federal law as well as many state laws. So I think it’s important that if in a case like that where it sounds like the scammer got in because they were able to hack this woman’s credentials that she should have rights. Certainly if the bank seems unwilling to work with her, I would say your next stop should be the State Attorney General as well as groups like the Identity Theft Resource Center, which have great resources and help coach victims through recovering from these identity theft schemes.
Sean Pyles:
Yeah. And your advice just there brings up the idea of jurisdiction. The woman that I spoke with was based in Canada, where they have different rules and regulations than we do in the U.S. So I think it’s important for anyone to be familiar with what laws protect them where they’re living, whether it’s in a different country or a specific state.
John Breyault:
Yeah, absolutely. And I would say a great place to start that journey of learning what your rights are and what laws may apply is the FTC has a great website at identitytheft.gov where you can start to go through their checklist and create an identity theft recovery plan.
Sean Pyles:
Well, one final question. I’m asking this of all the experts that we’re talking with for this series, so I’ll ask you too. Have you ever fallen victim to a scam or identity theft or fraud?
John Breyault:
I definitely have. Fortunately for me, it wasn’t sort of life altering, but what got me interested in working on fraud was a trip I took to Jamaica on vacation where I was in a bar, which probably tells you the first thing that I wasn’t thinking very clearly, but one of the locals came up to me and said, “Hey, if you give me $20, I can get you cheaper drinks at the bar.” And I said, “Great.” And so I gave him the $20 and he turned around, bought some beers for him and his friends and just ignored me.
And I wasn’t about to start a fight with a bunch of guys in a bar in Jamaica. So I just said, “Okay, lesson learned.” Don’t always take what people say to you at face value and listen to your gut before you hand over your money. Unfortunately, in this country we have, when it comes to identity theft and being a victim of fraud, we often have this tendency to blame the victim.
And there’s a real stigma attached to being a victim of fraud. And we often use terms like, “You fell for a scam.” Or people say, “I can’t believe I was so stupid.” Or we use terms like, “pig butchering scams,” which suggest that somehow the victim is the one who’s culpable. I think that that is wrong. If I could have one additional message for listeners of this podcast, it’s show a little compassion the next time somebody tells you their fraud story and recognize that these are people who are victims of organized, multinational, very savvy criminals, and help them work through sort of this crime they’ve been a victim of and encourage them to report it.
Sean Pyles:
Well, John, thank you again for talking with us.
John Breyault:
I appreciate it, Sean.
Sean Pyles:
Sara, one thing that I really want listeners to remember is that the cost of experiencing identity fraud can go well beyond the money loss, which of course can be significant. People who are victimized in this way often suffer mental health consequences. Many feel ashamed or like they brought this upon themselves. So like John said, if you’ve experienced a loss like this, get help. Yes, contact the FTC and your local police, but also think about talking with a loved one or a therapist who can help you process your emotions around this.
Sara Rathner:
Yeah, know that you are not alone. You probably know people who have gone through something like this and you could commiserate with each other. The important thing is to receive nonjudgmental help from people who are on your side and will help you wrap your head around everything that’s happened to you, and you can come out the other side stronger and more determined to protect yourself in the future. Okay, Sean, tell us what’s coming up in Episode 3 of this series. I assume there are more horrors on the way.
Sean Pyles:
Unfortunately, yes. Next week we’re going to walk into the lion’s den of the scammiest people on earth. Imposter scams, romance scams, phishing, vishing, all in the name of parting you from your money.
Speaker 5:
That’s what these scammers try to do. They try to rush you into making a decision by telling you something’s urgent or an emergency like the family emergency scam, where they’ll say, “Oh, this is your grandchild and I’m overseas, and I need you to wire money fast because I’m jail or in the hospital.”
Sara Rathner:
Yikes. Well, for now at least, that’s all we have for this episode. Do you have a money question of your own? Turn to the Nerds and call or text us your questions at (901) 730-6373. That’s (901) 730-NERD. You could also email us at [email protected]. Also visit nerdwallet.com/podcast for more info on this episode. And remember to follow, rate and review us wherever you’re getting this podcast.
Sean Pyles:
This episode was produced by Tess Vigeland. I helped with editing, Kevin Berry helped with fact checking, Sara Brink mixed our audio.
Sara Rathner:
And here’s our brief disclaimer. We’re not financial or investment advisors. This nerdy info is provided for general educational and entertainment purposes and may not apply to your specific circumstances.
Sean Pyles:
And with that said, until next time, turn to the Nerds.
As we approach the mid-2020s, the question on many homeowners’ and potential buyers’ minds is: what will mortgage rates look like in 2025? It’s a crucial question, as even a small fluctuation in rates can significantly impact monthly payments and overall affordability.
Looking ahead, experts offer a range of predictions, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in economic forecasting. Factors such as inflation, economic growth, monetary policy, and global market conditions all play a role in shaping the future of mortgage rates.
A conservative estimate suggests that 30-year fixed mortgage rates could be in the range of 5.5% to 7% by 2025. This prediction takes into account potential economic growth, the Federal Reserve’s likely responses to changing conditions, and the broader real estate market’s status.
Other forecasts are slightly more optimistic, with projections of a gradual decrease in mortgage rates over the next 18 months. For instance, Fannie Mae anticipates rates might slide to 6.0%, Wells Fargo expects around 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates rates could fall to 5.5% by the final quarter of 2025.
However, it’s important to note that these predictions come with a degree of uncertainty. The past few years have shown that unprecedented events, such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, can rapidly alter the economic landscape. As a result, forecasters often advise caution and suggest that these projections are best viewed as guidelines rather than guarantees.
The consensus among experts is that while rates are expected to peak soon due to high inflation and policy measures, they will likely remain above historical lows. This means that while we may not see the rock-bottom rates of the early 2020s, there is also little expectation of a return to the double-digit rates of the 1980s.
Will Mortgage Rates Decline in 2025?
According to recent analyses and expert predictions, there is a sense of cautious optimism about the potential for mortgage rates to trend downward in 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association, for instance, has projected that 30-year mortgage rates could fall to around 5.6%. This forecast is based on current market trends and economic indicators, suggesting a silver lining for those hoping for more favorable borrowing conditions.
The current landscape of mortgage rates has been shaped by a variety of factors, including inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and global economic conditions. In the past, rates below 4% were considered competitive, with a historical low point of around 3.75% in 2020 serving as a benchmark for what constitutes a ‘good‘ rate. However, the economic turmoil and policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to fluctuations that defy simple predictions.
Looking ahead, the expectation of a downward trend is influenced by several factors. Economic recovery, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are all expected to play a role in shaping mortgage rates in the coming years. The Federal Reserve, in particular, is anticipated to continue its delicate balancing act, adjusting interest rates to maintain economic stability while fostering growth.
It’s important to note, however, that these predictions are not guaranteed. The financial landscape is complex and subject to change due to unforeseen global events and policy shifts. Therefore, while the projections provide a general direction, individuals should remain vigilant and consult with financial advisors to understand how these trends may affect their personal circumstances.
In summary, while there is hope for a decrease in mortgage rates by 2025, it is crucial for potential borrowers to stay informed and prepared for any outcome. By keeping an eye on economic developments and seeking professional advice, one can navigate the mortgage market with greater confidence and make decisions that align with their financial goals.
The 10-year yield has had a wild ride today, but now is an excellent time to look at my macro take on the labor market and explain what the Fed is looking for with the jobs data. The Fed recently said that the labor market getting weaker would force them to act more dovish on rate cuts, and that seeing vigorous job creation wasn’t a big concern. So, let’s look at where we are today with all the labor data and why mortgage rates are still high while the labor market is getting softer.
Since 2022, I haven’t believed the Fed would pivot until the labor market breaks. I believe too many people put too much weight on the inflation growth rate slowing as the primary driver for lower mortgage rates. Instead, I have focused on jobless claims data. My target has always been the same: jobless claims breaking above 323,000 on the four-week moving average is recessionary. We are far from that, and as you can see below, the growth rate of inflation has fallen, but bond yields and mortgage rates are still elevated because the labor market hasn’t broken yet.
Below, CPI inflation’s growth rate is at 3.2%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.36%. I know it’s wild to think, but we had lower rates with hotter inflation data.
The one data line that has been improving, which Chairmen Powell mentioned at the last press meeting, is jobless claims, which have been falling for months. If this data line ran above 300,000, we would have a different mortgage rate discussion today. Remember, the labor market is getting softer, but it’s not breaking. Once it breaks, that will force the Fed to move,and bond yields will have already gone lower.
How did we get here with the labor market? Here’s my explanation, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose all the way to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the job openings, quit percentage, and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was. The employment cost index has slowed recently as well. Today’s jobs report showed slower wage growth than earlier in the cycle.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September 2022. This would be a speedy labor market recovery at the time, and it happened on schedule, too.
4. This is the key one right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which is in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 158,133,000.This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when the average is 140,000 to 165,000monthly.So, for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140,000-165,000 means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
Less than a high school diploma: 4.9%
High school graduate and no college: 4.1%
Some college or associate degree: 3.4%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.1%
A positive trend for the Fed with a softer labor market is that wage growth is cooling down. The Fed can live with 3% wage growth and 1% productivity growth, and now that wage growth is slowly moving under 4%, they will feel more like pilots who can land the plane.
Productivity data has indeed been more robust recently. Still, the Fed doesn’t believe in the more robust productivity numbers, so wage growth closer to 3%- 3.5% is more in their comfort zone.
On a side note, a positive story in housing this year is that the mortgage spreads are improving, and we haven’t had a stress market event like last year to push them higher. This is a huge plus because if the spreads can get back to normal with lower yields, we have a sub-6% mortgage rate market and we can certainly work with that.
All in all, the labor report is showing the same trend I have been seeing for some time now: the labor market is getting softer, but we are still creating more jobs than I was expecting at this point of the cycle. If we are still growing jobs over 165K once we break over 159,000,000 then my forecast model was incorrect, and the labor dynamics are more robust than I anticipated, so less than 1,000,000 jobs left before we cross that bridge.
However, after considering all the drama we had to deal with this week, we came out okay on this jobs report. It does provide a path for the Federal Reserve to see the softer wage growth data and land the plane.
Even moving into a similarly priced home across the street would mean a 40% average jump in principal and interest payments – about $500 extra per month – according to Walden. This “lock-in effect” heavily discourages homeowners from selling and is a significant reason behind the persistently low inventory of homes for sale. “You’d be … [Read more…]