probability

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The bachelor party decided to go to the casino. I happily went along for the ride. The behavioral finance nerd in me was ready to witness fascinating behavior. Gambling can certainly be entertaining, but it’s not financially savvy. As long as you know that, you’ll be ok – albeit a little lighter in the wallet.

This particular casino had an engaging “loss leader.”* They offered $15 in free casino credit to new gamblers. The scheme, of course, is cynical. They hope those free bets hook you, knowing that a regular gambler will surely lose back more than the free $15 over a long period of time.

*a strategy where a product is sold at a price below its market cost to stimulate other sales of more profitable goods or services.

And all it takes is one true addict to make up for hundreds of free giveaways. Like I said…cynical.

Most of our friends went to the blackjack table (where the per-hand odds are ~42% for the player, 50% for the house, and 8% ending in a tie), betting in their own cash on top of the free $15 credit.

My buddy, Trey, and I cheaped out. We took our $15 casino cards and went to the dollar slots. Let’s push some buttons and have free fun until the $15 disappears.

But we got lucky.

Trey turned his $15 into ~$80 of real money, and I left with ~$200. Our $30 in free credit became $300 real dollars. We counted our blessings and walked away. Appetizers are on us, fellas!

Meanwhile, the blackjack players ultimately played until their chips disappeared. They had fun but they lost their money. And yes – a few of them learned of our “success” at the slots and felt aggrieved by our dumb luck.

But if we look strictly at the financials, I see a clear takeaway:

  • Trey and I “played” in a way that was literally impossible to lose. As long as we didn’t succumb to any impulse to wager our own money, we had a 0% chance of losing. Granted, we got lucky to leave with gains. But we weren’t going to lose money.
  • The blackjack guys played in a way guaranteed to lose, barring any luck. The more hands they played – each a bet with odds against them – the more likely their loss.

It’s true – I’m not the most fun guy at the casino.

But implore you to apply a similar idea to your investing.

The Market Ain’t A Casino

First things first: the market isn’t a casino, and investing isn’t (or shouldn’t be) gambling.

I understand why it can feel that way, especially when we hear stories about GameStop, AMC, or Enron. Big bets, big wins, and big losses over short periods.

The market, as a whole, isn’t roulette, though. It simply represents the ownership of businesses—a small slice of the global economy that we each own. Owning a business is not the same as blind gambling. You’re not depending on dice or cards to fall your way.

Stock investing involves exchanging money today for the future income stream of a particular business. Or, in the case of a broad fund of stocks, the future income stream of the global economy. The economy doesn’t over- or under-perform based on dice or cards.

Investing in stocks – at least the way I implore us all to approach it – isn’t gambling.

Bets in the Market

But the stock market isn’t a guarantee, either. There will be times when we invest on Monday only to see our investments decline in value on Tuesday. In fact, the shorter our investment period, the more likely we’ll lose money.

I don’t want to play blackjack with my retirement. I don’t want to make coin-flip bets.

But the more the odds are in my favor, the more I’m willing to wager. In one of Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meetings, Warren Buffett says something akin to, “If you give me 5:7 odds, we’d be willing to wager a very large sum of money.”

FYI: That’s a ~58% chance of winning.

Personally, I don’t have enough extra money to make too many 58% bets. I’d much rather make 90% bets. Or even better, I’d rather bet with the casino’s money. I want to feel really sure that I’ll walk away a winner.

The longer you invest in the stock market, the more likely you’ll walk away with profits. That’s a wager I’m willing to make.

Some Bets I’m Willing to Make

As of writing this very sentence, the S&P 500 is at 5526.

Will the S&P 500 be higher or lower in one month? I don’t know, and I don’t care. I don’t want that bet.

Will the S&P hit 5626 (100 points up from now) before it hits 5426 (100 points down)? I don’t want that bet, either.

Both those bets—involving short periods and small changes (~2%) in the market—are too close to 50/50 bets. I’m not willing to take those odds. It’s too risky. That’s why, in my opinion, stock investing is inappropriate over short periods. One month, 6 months, even out a few years – stocks aren’t appropriate.

But will the S&P be higher or lower in 10 years? Or 20 years? Or more? I’m willing to make that bet, and it’s a sizable bet at that. I’ve got a lot of money on the line. I’m not sure it will pay off, but I like my odds.

Will the S&P hit 8300 (50% up from now) or 2750 (50% down)? I’m not sure. 50% declines do happen, but not too frequently. 50% increases are much more common. I’m an optimist on this one, too.

I care about long periods and steady compounded returns over those periods. The odds are clearly in the investor’s favor when looking at those time scales.

Those are some bets I’m willing to make.

Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8500+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week. You can read past newsletters before signing up.

-Jesse

Want to learn more about The Best Interest’s back story? Read here.

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Source: bestinterest.blog

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Fears of a recession in the U.S. sent shockwaves through financial markets around the world on Monday. The Dow-Jones dropped 1,000 points by 10:30 a.m. Eastern time, the NASDAQ lost up to 6% of its value and Japanese stocks suffered their biggest crash since 1987, with the Nikkei 225 stock index dropping 12.4%.

The turbulence should benefit the U.S. mortgage market, which has already seen big interest rate declines in the past week following a Fed meeting that teased forthcoming cuts to benchmark interest rates, along with a much weaker-than-expected jobs report.

“Bond yields have made a huge move lower and have made a big move up; it’s market madness on Monday, the 10-year yield is only down a few basis points as of this second,” HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami said at 10:32 a.m. EST. “Mortgage pricing should be lower today, but the close of today with the 10-year yield is key because short term bonds are very overbought.”

Several loan officers and mortgage executives told Housingwire that they’ve been quoting even lower prices on Monday though they’re also having to fight for loans that were locked in their pipeline at higher prices.

As of 11:08 a.m. EST, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 3.76%, the lowest reading since June 2023, while the two-year Treasury yield moved to 3.88%, which is generally a sign of recession.

Analysts at Keefe Bruyette and Woods (KBW) on Monday said that weak employment data drove market concerns about credit and fueled an interest rate rally. Mortgage spreads tightened at the same time, taking the Fannie Mae current coupon to 5.05%. 

“If long-rates remains stable, this suggests that the 30-yr Freddie Mac fixed rate mortgage should fall from 6.73% last Thursday to ~6.3% next week. The market also sharply increased expectations for Fed rates, pricing in ~4.6 25 bp cuts by year-end, including a strong likelihood of a 50 bp cut in September,” the analysts said.

“Fed funds futures now imply the Fed Funds rate could be 200 bp lower by July 2025. This backdrop should favor the mortgage universe broadly as (likely) improvement in purchase activity should benefit originators/title insurers. … We also reiterate our OP on the mortgage insurers (ESNT is highlighted here) as we expect credit to stay strong unless home prices fall sharply, which we do not anticipate.”

Analysts at Bank of America said the markets view U.S. recession risk as rising and are projecting more than 100 bps of rate cuts before year’s end.

“Incoming data have raised concerns that the US economy has hit an air pocket,” they said. “Financial markets are now pricing in more than 100bp in rate cuts by year-end and significant probability of a 50bp cut in September. Markets even began discussing whether the Fed needs to deliver intermeeting cuts. A rate cut in September is now a virtual lock, but we do not think the economy needs aggressive, recession-sized cuts.”

Loan originators and mortgage executives told HousingWire on Friday that they were locking borrowers in the high 5% range on government loans and in the mid-6% range on conventional mortgages.

Last week‘s sharp mortgage rate decline, which saw most LOs improve pricing between 20 and 60 basis points, resulted in a surge in rate locks, originators said.

“For example, I locked one loan today that would have cost the borrower 1.213 points on Monday versus 0.375 today. This loan amount happens to be $610,000, and the cost of the rate went from costing $7,400 to costing $3,200 today,” said California-based Shannon Hoff of American Pacific Mortgage. “The average mortgage loan amount in the U.S. is $405,000, and saving an extra 80 basis points could equate to $150 to $250 a month, depending on the overall scenario. This is huge for borrowers.”

According to Hoff, borrowers best positioned to take advantage of these rates are those who have purchased or taken a cash-out refinance over the past 12 to 18 months. In addition, some borrowers are looking to buy now or have been prequalified this past year.

“They can take advantage of a lower payment or even qualifying for a higher purchase price if the DTI was a key factor in the preapproval,” she said.

Flàvia Furlan Nunes contributed to this report.

Source: housingwire.com

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In the investing ecosystem, the term “margin” is used to describe the money that may be borrowed from a brokerage to execute trades or a strategy. Buying assets on margin can help magnify gains and returns, but it can do the same with your losses.

When you buy on margin, you’re purchasing assets using money that you borrow from your broker. Margin trading might seem more complicated than some other ways to invest in the stock market, but it’s a method that many investors favor — especially experienced investors. If there’s one thing to know about margin trading, though, it’s that it can cut both ways, and may incur serious risks.

Table of Contents

What Is Margin Trading?

Margin trading, or “buying on margin,” is an advanced investment strategy in which you trade securities using money that you’ve borrowed from your broker to potentially increase your return. Margin is essentially a loan where you can borrow up to 50% of your security purchase, and as with most loans, a margin loan comes with an interest rate and collateral.

Trading on margin is similar to “buying on credit.” Using margin for a trade is also known as leveraging. Margin interest rates are determined by your broker, and collateral types can be stock holdings or cash. Traders must also maintain a margin balance, known as the maintenance margin, in their accounts to cover potential losses.

As noted, margin trading is a bit more complicated (and risky) than some other ways to invest in the stock market, but it’s a tactic used by many investors.

How Does Margin Trading Work?

While margin trading may seem straightforward, it’s important to understand all the parameters.

For all trades, your broker acts as the intermediary between your account and your counterparty. Whenever you enter a buy or sell trade on your account, your broker electronically executes that trade with a counterparty in the market, and transfers that security into/out of your account once the transaction is completed.

To execute trades for a standard cash account vs. margin account, your broker directly withdraws funds for a cash trade. Thus every cash trade is secured 100% by money you’ve already deposited, entailing no risk to your broker.

In contrast, with margin accounts, a portion of each trade is secured by cash, known as the initial margin, while the rest is covered with funds you borrow from your broker.

Consequently, while margin trading affords you more buying power than you could otherwise achieve with cash alone, the additional risk means that you’ll always need to maintain a minimum level of collateral to meet margin requirements.

While margin requirements can vary by broker, we’ve defined and outlined the minimums mandated by financial regulators.

Term Amount Definition
Minimum margin $2,000 Amount you need to deposit to open a new margin account
Initial margin 50% Percentage of a security purchase that needs to be funded by cash
Maintenance margin 25% Percentage of your holdings that needs to be covered by equity

💡 Quick Tip: Options can be a cost-efficient way to place certain trades, because you typically purchase options contracts, not the underlying security. That said, options trading can be risky, and best done by those who are not entirely new to investing.

Increase your buying power with a margin loan from SoFi.

Borrow against your current investments at just 12%* and start margin trading.

Example of Margin Trading (Buying on Margin)

Here’s an example of how margin trading works, or could work, in the real world. Imagine you open a margin account with $2,000 at a brokerage firm. It’s helpful to keep the maintenance margin in mind, too, when reading through this example.

Now, say you have your eyes set on Stock X, that’s trading at $100 per share. You can afford to buy 10 shares with the cash in your account. But, you want to buy more — margin allows you to do that. Given your margin account’s 50% initial margin requirement, that means you can effectively double your purchasing power.

So, you can buy 20 shares of Stock X for a total of $2,000, and $1,000 of that purchase would be buying on margin.

If Stock X appreciates in value by, say, 100% (it’s now worth $200 per share), you could sell your holdings and end up with $4,000. You could then pay back your brokerage for the margin loan, and have realized a greater return than you would have without using margin.

But the opposite can happen, too. If Stock X depreciates by 50% (it’s now worth $50) and you sold your holdings, you’d have $1,000, and owe your broker $1,000. So, you’ve wiped out your cash reserves by using margin — one of its primary risks.

To recap: In both scenarios, the margin loan balance remains the same ($1,000), while the equity value took the entire gain or loss.

Bear in mind, too, that for simplicity, this example ignores interest charges. In a real margin trade, you would need to also back out any interest expense incurred on the margin loan before calculating your return; this would act as an additional drag on earnings.

Potential Benefits of Margin Trading

As noted, margin trading has some pretty obvious benefits or advantages. Those may include the following:

•   Potential to enhance purchasing power. A primary benefit of margin trading is the potential expansion of an investor’s purchasing power, sometimes exponentially. This could possibly help boost returns if the price of the stock or other investment purchased with a margin trade goes up.

•   Possible lower interest rates. Benefits of margin loans might include lower interest rates relative to other types of loans, such as personal loans, if the investor is borrowing money to make trades. Plus, there typically isn’t a repayment schedule.

•   Diversification. You could also use margin trading to diversify your portfolio.

•   Selling short. Another potential advantage might be a complicated trading method called short selling. Margin trading might make it possible for you to sell stocks short. Short selling differs from most other investment strategies in that investors make a bet that a stock’s price will fall.

Note, however, that the rules for short selling with a margin account can get even more complicated than a traditional margin trade. For instance, Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board requires margin accounts to have 150% of the value of the short sale when the trade is initiated.

While the benefits of being able to buy more investments — and potentially generate larger returns — might seem appealing to some investors, there are also some potential risks to using margin. It might be worth considering these before you decide if trading on margin is right for you.

Potential Risks of Margin Trading

There are potential benefits, and there are potential risks associated with margin trading. Here are some of those risks:

•   Possible loss beyond initial investment. While a primary benefit of margin trading may be increased buying power, investors could lose more money than they initially invested. Unlike a cash account, the traditional way to buy stocks or other investments, losses in a margin account can actually extend beyond the initial investment.

For example, if an investor purchases $20,000 worth of stock with a cash account, the most they can lose is $20,000. If that same investor uses $10,000 of their own money and a margin — essentially a loan — of $10,000 and the stock loses value, they may actually end up owing more money than their initial $10,000.

•   Possibility of margin call. Another potential negative aspect of margin trading is getting a margin call. Investors might need to put additional funds into their account on short notice if a margin call is triggered because the investment lost value. Moreover, a drop in value might mean an investor needs to sell off some or all of the investment, even at an inopportune time.

The SEC warns investors that they must sell some of their stock, or deposit more funds to cover a margin call. If you get a margin call, it is your responsibility to deposit more funds, add securities or sell holdings in your account. If you don’t meet the margin call after a number of warnings from your broker, then the broker has the right to sell all or some of the current positions to bring the account back up to minimum value.

💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.

How to Get Started With Margin Trading

Typically, the first step to getting started with margin trading is to open a margin account with a brokerage firm.

Even if you already have a stock or investment account, which are cash accounts, you still need to open a margin account because they are regulated differently. First-time margin investors need to deposit at least $2,000 per FINRA rules. If you’re looking to day trade, this dollar figure goes up to $25,000 according to FINRA rules. This is the minimum margin when opening a margin trading account.

Once the margin account has been opened and the minimum margin amount deposited, the SEC advises investors to read the terms of their account to understand how it will work.
The SEC advises investors to hedge their risks by making sure they understand how margin works, understanding that interest charges may be levied by your broker, knowing that not all assets can be purchased on margin, or even communicating with your broker to get a sense if a margin account is the right tool for you.

The Takeaway

Margin trading, as discussed, means that investors are trading securities with borrowed funds from their brokers. This allows them to potentially increase their returns, but also carries the risk of ballooning losses. As with most investing strategies and vehicles, margin trading comes with a unique set of potential benefits, risks, and rewards.
Margin trading can seem a little more complicated than some other approaches to investing. As the investor, it is up to you to decide if the potential risks are worth the potential rewards, and if this strategy aligns with your goals for the future.

If you’re an experienced trader and have the risk tolerance to try out trading on margin, consider enabling a SoFi margin account. With a SoFi margin account, experienced investors can take advantage of more investment opportunities, and potentially increase returns. That said, margin trading is a high-risk endeavor, and using margin loans can amplify losses as well as gains.

Get one of the most competitive margin loan rates with SoFi, 12%*

FAQ

Is margin trading profitable?

Margin trading can be profitable, but there are no guarantees for investors that it will be. It can also lead to outsized and substantial losses for investors, so it’s important to consider the risks and potential benefits.

What happens if you lose money on margin?

If you lose money on margin, you may have a negative balance with your brokerage, and owe the broker money. You may also be subject to interest charges on that balance, too.

Should beginners trade on margin?

It’s best to consult with a financial professional before trading on margin, but generally, it’s likely that professionals would recommend beginners do not trade on margin.

How do you pay off margin?

Typically, if you have a negative balance in your margin account, you can reduce or pay it off by simply depositing cash into your account, or selling assets.

SoFi Invest®

INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE

SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below:
Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.

1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.

2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.

For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.

Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Investment Risk: Diversification can help reduce some investment risk. It cannot guarantee profit, or fully protect in a down market.

*Borrow at 12%. Utilizing a margin loan is generally considered more appropriate for experienced investors as there are additional costs and risks associated. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment when using margin. Please see SoFi.com/wealth/assets/documents/brokerage-margin-disclosure-statement.pdf for detailed disclosure information.
Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

SOIN-Q224-1905305-V1

Source: sofi.com

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Inside: Here is the real answer from a day trader and long term investor on how fast can you make money in stocks? Increase freedom by day or swing trading.

The answer depends.

It depends on what your particular objectives are for making money.

If you are a day trader, you obviously can make quick money during the day.

If you are a swing trader, you can make money over the course of typically two to five days. Most swing trades are closed within 30 days.

If you are a long-term investor, it takes longer to make money in the stock market since the rate of return is slower with index funds or mutual funds.

The biggest caveat for the average person to make money with stocks quickly is they buy at the wrong times and sell at the wrong times.

Everyone has heard the mantra of buy low, sell high. Right?

Sounds simple enough.

However, the amateur investor does not understand how the overall market moves, the momentum of the day, and their particular stock of choice.

Personally, I know I can make money with stocks quickly. For me, I average $300-500 in a day easily (and way more using options). But, I have moved from novice investor by taking this investing course. I have practiced with paper trading (simulated account) and I have worked hard to get the results that I see on a consistent basis.

My mantra is… I need to be consistent enough to achieve remarkable results in the stock market.

That is your answer to how fast can I make money in the stocks.

Even Jean-Jacques Rousseau, a philosopher, writer, and composer has a perfect quote when it comes to making money fast in stocks, “Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.”

If you don’t understand what patience means, you are not prepared to make money fast in stocks.

You have to be disciplined enough to pull the trigger at the right time and exit before you get greedy or lose everything.

This post may contain affiliate links, which helps us to continue providing relevant content and we receive a small commission at no cost to you. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read the full disclosure here.

Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Your results will vary. Trade at your own risk.

How Fast Can you Make Money In Stocks?

You can make money quickly in a matter of seconds. You can also lose money in a matter of seconds.

The brutal truth… day trading is not made for everyone.

However, you can make consistent income to supplement your paycheck. And that right there is enticing for anyone.

As a day trader, you close out all of your trades on the same day. Thus, you will have a realized gain or loss at the end of the day. This is the fastest way to make money in the stock market.

As a swing trader, you will hold your trades until the stock moves to your desired price. Once you close your trades, that is when you have a realized gain or loss.

For long term investing, that is normally a buy and hold strategy of holding a stock, EFT, or index fund for longer than a year.

The best part is you can design what type of trading style works best for your personality and maximize the profits you are capable of.

In order to have the highest success rates of making money in the quickest time possible, I highly recommend that you take this course.

Trading has been a life-changing event for her, as well as her 1000s of students that have all made over $1,000 per day. That is a testament to the quality education that you would receive on how to trade.

So, if you were wondering can you make $1000 a month trading stocks? The answer is yes and you can make $1000 a day if you take the course I have taken.

Personally, I truly believe that spending the money on this online investing course is money better spent paying a financial advisor or paying for college.

Is Day trading worth It?

Can you make a living day trading?

Yes, it is very possible to make day trading a viable career path for you.

There are many benefits to being a day trader because you set your own hours. Since you are your own boss, you do not have to answer to anybody else. And in many cases, you could possibly work fewer hours than a regular salaried position.

On the flip side of being a day trader is you will have highs and lows. Until you fully grasp the concept that as a trader you will not win 100% of the time, you will struggle. In fact, most traders are probably executing trades with 50% wins and 50% are losses; that is what they call their batting average.

As an active trader, you must be careful to protect your account balance through the proper execution of risk management. (If you don’t understand this risk concept, then you must watch this video).

The goal for a day trader is to lose small amounts of money and reap a bigger reward of profit at the end of the day.

According to Glassdoor, the average day trader makes $71,260 a year. Thus, day trading is a very viable career because this is a higher potential than the average salaried $60000 per year that somebody else can provide for you.

Now, let’s break down how much does the average day trader make in days, weeks, and months.

The stock market is open for trading for about 252 days per year. This can fluctuate slightly based on holidays, Leap Year, or major events.

Average Trader Makes
Daily $282.78
Weekly $1,370.38
Monthly $5,938.33
Yearly $71,260.00
Your results will vary. Trade at your own risk.

Now, what if you love your job and just want to supplement your income with trading? That is completely possible and something many people do today.

Check out this person’s journey.

Serious About Learning How Fast You Can Earn Money In Stocks?

The stock market can be tricky. The stock market can be a beast to try to understand. That is why so many financial gurus are always making predictions and a very small handful actually pan out.

In the most simplistic form, a stock price is when a buyer and seller agree on a specific price. That price can move up and it can move down throughout the day. But at that particular moment in time, that is where the buyers and sellers agree on a price.

Once you move from a novice investor to a beginner investor to a good investor to an advanced investor, you are able to increase how fast you can potentially earn money.

The biggest mistake is to just jump into the market and start trading without any clue to what you are doing.

To have a greater probability of success, then you must take a top-notch investing course. The other option is to skip the cost of the course and lose even more in the stock market. Your choice.

I picked this top-notch investing course and am very happy with my decision. Thus, I highly recommend it to others who are serious about trading to supplement their income.

Check out my Trade and Travel Review – Join the $1000 in a Day Club!

If you don’t have cash for the full course upfront, just start with the basic Trade and Travel course. You can always upgrade to VIP once you begin profiting off the stock market and move to advanced trading strategies of shorting and options.

On top of that, you need to spend time practicing your trades in a simulated account; also known, as paper trading.

Practice everything you are learning from the course without losing money. You are trading with fake money until you can get the hang of day and swing trading.

  • Learn how the stocks move.
  • Learn how the market reacts.
  • Master your trading plan.
  • Refine your trading mindset.

Once you are comfortable and ready, then you can move on to a live trading account. That is where you actually start reaping what you have sown.

Day trading or swing trading is not a waste of time or a bad idea if you know how to execute properly and know your long term goal.

Plus it helps you find time freedom in your life.

Best Stocks to Invest in 2023

Are you trying to find the best stocks to invest in the current year? It may remind you of looking into an eight ball, taking your best guess, and then throwing a dart to hit a bullseye.

There are over 6000 stocks that trade on the NYSE & Nasdaq (source)!

That is a lot of companies to search through to find the best stocks for 2021. Typically, day traders look heavily on technology stocks and growth stocks.

So, how do you go along and pick the best stocks?

  1. One option is to listen to the big financial gurus on TV or in the news telling you to buy this or that stock. They may have some good ideas, but they also may have a few misses. Plus those stocks may be at all time highs.
  2. Another option is you copy what your friend has done. See the stocks they picked, and hopefully, you don’t get burned by a bad stock pick.
  3. Look around your house and find products that you use and believe will continue to do better. (Buyer beware… your favorite products may not be the best stocks in their sector.)

If you truly want to be a savvy investor, then you need to find an easier way for you to pick stocks that fit within your financial portfolio. Even better to find stocks that align with your values and ethics.

More importantly, do this research without spending a ton of your own time!

If you are looking for the best stocks to invest in right now, you can use the Motley Fool’s services to help you pick the best stocks right now.

The other option is to do all of your due diligence and time picking your own company.

Personally, I use Motley Fool’s Stock Advisory. It is an easy way to start with a group of solid companies and less time for me to search out all other detailed information provided.

Is it possible to make a living trading stocks?

Most aspiring day traders will never become profitable. Even though this is the perfect early morning job.

Sad, but true.

That is because they do not have a system (aka trading plan) in place. They were not taught how to trade effectively, manage risk, and happily close a trade for a profit or a loss.

Unfortunately, trying to trade by the seat of your pants and whatever fits your fancy, will not work. The same goes for trading with you you hear on popular Reddit forums, Discord groups, or Twitter.

You have to know when to buy, how much to buy, what your risk tolerance is, when you plan to sell (win or lose), and your potential profit.

Just because you calculate a potential profit of $1,000 does not mean that it is a great trade since you may lose 3000 dollars to make that $1,000 profit happen. And in that case, that trade is not worth it.

There is a consensus out there that day trading is not worth it. Probably because those people lost a ton of money in the market because they were clueless on how to trade.

The question becomes are you willing to advance your knowledge more than the average person to make a living trading stocks.

To be successful at making money in stocks, you must understand how the market moves, be able to make solid decisions on buying or selling the stock or option.

If you struggle to make simple decisions on what you are going to have for dinner, then day trading might not be for you. So, stick with long-term investing with index funds.

If you have an inkling to add another type of income, then day trading or swing trading might be favorable for you. Or a desire of I don’t want to work anymore.

Day trading is a good idea if you are looking to change your personal finance situation and find freedom by increasing your net worth.

Think about how your life and how your stress level can be transformed by short term investing. What can you possibly accomplish by using the stock market as another stream of income?

I cannot stress enough that you must take a solid investing course.

Are you Ready to Make Money Fast in Stocks?

In conclusion, the real answer is yes, you can make money fast in the stock market. Even more when you have successful trade options (VIP level). The market comes with risk and you can also lose money fast in the stock market.

Yes, now is a good time to invest in stocks.

The determination will be decided by how much time you spend truly learning about how to make real money in the stock market.

  • If you’re following Twitter, discord, Reddit groups, or just following the trends, you may have some success, but it is not guaranteed for a long time.
  • If you have a proven reliable trading system, like I have taken I you can make the progress you need to start making real money in the stock market.

But remember, nothing is guaranteed.

Nothing that I have said in this post is a promise that you are guaranteed to make money in the stock market. All I’m saying is…it is possible.

You can learn how to make 300 dollars fast. Or even make 5000 fast.

You just have to put in the time, the dedication, and the desire to do it.

Just remember, do not start trading with real money until you have made significant progress in a simulated account and feel confident in your ability to make money in a live account.

You must be able to take money away from other people in the stock market and not have them steal your money.

LearnHow to Get Weekly Paychecks From The Stock Market

Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Your results will vary. Trade at your own risk.

Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!

Did the post resonate with you?

More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!

Your comments are not just welcomed; they’re an integral part of our community. Let’s continue the conversation and explore how these ideas align with your journey towards Money Bliss.

Source: moneybliss.org

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When investing, you often want to know how much money an investment is likely to earn you. That’s where the expected rate of return comes in; expected rate of return is calculated using the probabilities of investment returns for various potential outcomes. Investors can utilize the expected return formula to help project future returns.

Though it’s impossible to predict the future, having some idea of what to expect can be critical in setting expectations for a good return on investment.

Key Points

•   The expected rate of return is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment based on historical rates of return and the probability of different outcomes.

•   The formula for calculating the expected rate of return involves multiplying the potential returns by their probabilities and summing them.

•   Historical data can be used to estimate the probability of different returns, but past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

•   The expected rate of return does not consider the risk involved in an investment and should be used in conjunction with other factors when making investment decisions.

What Is the Expected Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return — also known as expected return — is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment, given historical rates of return and the probability of certain returns under different scenarios. The expected return formula projects potential future returns.

Expected return is a speculative financial metric investors can use to determine where to invest their money. By calculating the expected rate of return on an investment, investors get an idea of how that investment may perform in the future.

This financial concept can be useful when there is a robust pool of historical data on the returns of a particular investment. Investors can use the historical data to determine the probability that an investment will perform similarly in the future.

However, it’s important to remember that past performance is far from a guarantee of future performance. Investors should be careful not to rely on expected returns alone when making investment decisions.

💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

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How To Calculate Expected Return

To calculate the expected rate of return on a stock or other security, you need to think about the different scenarios in which the asset could see a gain or loss. For each scenario, multiply that amount of gain or loss (return) by its probability. Finally, add up the numbers you get from each scenario.

The formula for expected rate of return looks like this:

Expected Return = (R1 * P1) + (R2 * P2) + … + (Rn * Pn)

In this formula, R is the rate of return in a given scenario, P is the probability of that return, and n is the number of scenarios an investor may consider.

For example, say there is a 40% chance an investment will see a 20% return, a 50% chance that the investment will return 10%, and a 10% chance the investment will decline 10%. (Note: all the probabilities must add up to 100%)

The expected return on this investment would be calculated using the formula above:

Expected Return = (40% x 20%) + (50% x 10%) + (10% x -10%)

Expected Return = 8% + 5% – 1%

Expected Return = 12%

What Is Rate of Return?

The expected rate of return mentioned above looks at an investment’s potential profit and loss. In contrast, the rate of return looks at the past performance of an asset.

A rate of return is the percentage change in value of an investment from its initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you look at the net gain or loss in an investment over a particular time period. The simple rate of return is also known as the return on investment (ROI).

Recommended: What Is the Average Stock Market Return?

How to Calculate Rate of Return

The formula to calculate the rate of return is:

Rate of return = [(Current value − Initial value) ÷ Initial Value ] × 100

Let’s say you own a share that started at $100 in value and rose to $110 in value. Now, you want to find its rate of return.

In our example, the calculation would be [($110 – $100) ÷ $100] x 100 = 10

A rate of return is typically expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. So, if you were to sell your share, this investment would have a 10% rate of return.

Recommended: What Is Considered a Good Return on Investment?

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Different Ways to Calculate Expected Rate of Return

How to Calculate Expected Return Using Historical Data

To calculate the expected return of a single investment using historical data, you’ll want to take an average rate of returns in certain years to determine the probability of those returns. Here’s an example of what that would look like:

Annual Returns of a Share of Company XYZ
Year Return
2011 16%
2012 22%
2013 1%
2014 -4%
2015 8%
2016 -11%
2017 31%
2018 7%
2019 13%
2020 22%

For Company XYZ, the stock generated a 21% average rate of return in five of the ten years (2011, 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2020), a 5% average return in three of the years (2013, 2015, 2018), and a -8% average return in two of the years (2014 and 2016).

Using this data, you may assume there is a 50% probability that the stock will have a 21% rate of return, a 30% probability of a 5% return, and a 20% probability of a -8% return.

The expected return on a share of Company XYZ would then be calculated as follows:

Expected return = (50% x 21%) + (30% x 5%) + (20% x -8%)

Expected return = 10% + 2% – 2%

Expected return = 10%

Based on the historical data, the expected rate of return for this investment would be 10%.

However, when using historical data to determine expected returns, you may want to consider if you are using all of the data available or only data from a select period. The sample size of the historical data could skew the results of the expected rate of return on the investment.

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How to Calculate Expected Return Based on Probable Returns

When using probable rates of return, you’ll need the data point of the expected probability of an outcome in a given scenario. This probability can be calculated, or you can make assumptions for the probability of a return. Remember, the probability column must add up to 100%. Here’s an example of how this would look.

Expected Rate of Return for a Stock of Company ABC
Scenario Return Probability Outcome (Return * Probability)
1 14% 30% 4.2%
2 2% 10% 0.2%
3 22% 30% 6.6%
4 -18% 10% -1.8%
5 -21% 10% -2.1%
Total 100% 7.1%

Using the expected return formula above, in this hypothetical example, the expected rate of return is 7.1%.

Calculate Expected Rate of Return on a Stock in Excel

Follow these steps to calculate a stock’s expected rate of return in Excel (or another spreadsheet software):

1. In the first row, enter column labels:

•   A1: Investment

•   B1: Gain A

•   C1: Probability of Gain A

•   D1: Gain B

•   E1: Probability of Gain B

•   F1: Expected Rate of Return

2. In the second row, enter your investment name in B2, followed by its potential gains and the probability of each gain in columns C2 – E2

•   Note that the probabilities in C2 and E2 must add up to 100%

3. In F2, enter the formula = (B2*C2)+(D2*E2)

4. Press enter, and your expected rate of return should now be in F2

If you’re working with more than two probabilities, extend your columns to include Gain C, Probability of Gain C, Gain D, Probability of Gain D, etc.

If there’s a possibility for loss, that would be negative gain, represented as a negative number in cells B2 or D2.

Limitations of the Expected Rate of Return Formula

Historical data can be a good place to start in understanding how an investment behaves. That said, investors may want to be leery of extrapolating past returns for the future. Historical data is a guide; it’s not necessarily predictive.

Another limitation to the expected returns formula is that it does not consider the risk involved by investing in a particular stock or other asset class. The risk involved in an investment is not represented by its expected rate of return.

In this historical return example above, 10% is the expected rate of return. What that number doesn’t reveal is the risk taken in order to achieve that rate of return. The investment experienced negative returns in the years 2014 and 2016. The variability of returns is often called volatility.

Standard Deviation

To understand the volatility of an investment, you may consider looking at its standard deviation. Standard deviation measures volatility by calculating a dataset’s dispersion (values’ range) relative to its mean. The larger the standard deviation, the larger the range of returns.

Consider two different investments: Investment A has an average annual return of 10%, and Investment B has an average annual return of 6%. But when you look at the year-by-year performance, you’ll notice that Investment A experienced significantly more volatility. There are years when returns are much higher and lower than with Investment B.

Year Annual Return of Investment A Annual Return of Investment B
2011 16% 8%
2012 22% 4%
2013 1% 3%
2014 -6% 0%
2015 8% 6%
2016 -11% -2%
2017 31% 9%
2018 7% 5%
2019 13% 15%
2020 22% 14%
Average Annual Return 10% 6%
Standard Deviation 13% 5%

Investment A has a standard deviation of 13%, while Investment B has a standard deviation of 5%. Although Investment A has a higher rate of return, there is more risk. Investment B has a lower rate of return, but there is less risk. Investment B is not nearly as volatile as Investment A.

Recommended: A Guide to Historical Volatility

Systematic and Unsystematic Risk

All investments are subject to pressures in the market. These pressures, or sources of risk, can come from systematic and unsystematic risks. Systematic risk affects an entire investment type. Investors may struggle to reduce the risk through diversification within that asset class.

Because of systematic risk, you may consider building an investment strategy that includes different asset types. For example, a sweeping stock market crash could affect all or most stocks and is, therefore, a systematic risk. However, if your portfolio includes different types of bonds, commodities, and real estate, you may limit the impact of the equities crash.

In the stock market, unsystematic risk is specific to one company, country, or industry. For example, technology companies will face different risks than healthcare and energy companies. This type of risk can be mitigated with portfolio diversification, the process of purchasing different types of investments.

Expected Rate of Return vs Required Rate of Return

Expected return is just one financial metric that investors can use to make investment decisions. Similarly, investors may use the required rate of return (RRR) to determine the amount of money an investment needs to generate to be worth it for the investor. The required rate of return incorporates the risk of an investment.

What Is the Dividend Discount Model?

Investors may use the dividend discount model to determine an investment’s required rate of return. The dividend discount model can be used for stocks with high dividends and steady growth. Investors use a stock’s price, dividend payment per share, and projected dividend growth rate to calculate the required rate of return.

The formula for the required rate of return using the dividend discount model is:

RRR = (Expected dividend payment / Share price) + Projected dividend growth rate

So, if you have a stock paying $2 in dividends per year and is worth $20 and the dividends are growing at 5% a year, you have a required rate of return of:

RRR = ($2 / $20) + 0.5

RRR = .10 + .05

RRR = .15, or 15%

What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

The other way of calculating the required rate of return is using a more complex model known as the capital asset pricing model.

In this model, the required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return, plus what’s known as beta (the stock’s volatility compared to the market), which is then multiplied by the market rate of return minus the risk-free rate. For the risk-free rate, investors usually use the yield of a short-term U.S. Treasury.

The formula is:

RRR = Risk-free rate of return + Beta x (Market rate of return – Risk-free rate of return)

For example, let’s say an investment has a beta of 1.5, the market rate of return is 5%, and a risk-free rate of 1%. Using the formula, the required rate of return would be:

RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.05 – .01)

RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.04)

RRR = .01 + .06

RRR = .07, or 7%

The Takeaway

There’s no way to predict the future performance of an investment or portfolio. However, by looking at historical data and using the expected rate of return formula, investors can get a better sense of an investment’s potential profit or loss.

There’s no guarantee that the actual performance of a stock, fund, or other assets will match the expected return. Nor does expected return consider the risk and volatility of assets. It’s just one factor an investor should consider when deciding on investments and building a portfolio.

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For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

FAQ

How do you find the expected rate of return?

An investment’s expected rate of return is the average rate of return that an investor can expect to receive over the life of the investment. Investors can calculate the expected return by multiplying the potential return of an investment by the chances of it occurring and then totaling the results.

How do you calculate the expected rate of return on a portfolio?

The expected rate of return on a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected rates of return on the individual assets in the portfolio. You first need to calculate the expected return for each investment in a portfolio, then weigh those returns by how much each investment makes up in the portfolio.

What is a good rate of return?

A good rate of return varies from person to person. Some investors may be satisfied with a lower rate of return if its performance is consistent, while others may be more aggressive and aim for a higher rate of return even if it is more volatile. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to decide what is considered a good rate of return.

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INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below:
Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.

1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.

2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.

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Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

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Apache is functioning normally

Earnings calls and earnings reports recap a company’s quarter or fiscal year, giving investors critical information as to how a company is functioning and faring. Understanding what’s going on with stocks can be tricky for both new and seasoned investors. It’s not always clear where you can turn for accurate information that will help with investment decisions — that’s why earnings calls or reports may be helpful.

But an earnings report doesn’t tell the whole story. Therefore, companies will hold earnings calls to provide context and backstory behind the data in an earnings report to help investors make informed decisions.

What Is an Earnings Call?

An earnings call is a conference call between the management of a public company and any interested outside party — usually investors, analysts, and business reporters — to discuss the company’s financial results and future outlook. Earnings calls are generally held quarterly, in the form of a teleconference or webcast; anyone can listen to an earnings call.

The earnings call often comes on the heels of the release of an earnings report and covers a given reporting period, typically a fiscal quarter or fiscal year.

💡 Recommended: How To Know When to Buy, Sell, Or Hold a Stock

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that public companies disclose certain financial information regularly and on an ongoing basis. Companies must file Form 10-Q quarterly reports during the first three fiscal quarters of the year. A 10-Q includes unaudited financial statements and provides the government and investors with a continuing account of the company’s financial position throughout the year.

For the fourth quarter of the year, a company will file a Form 10-K, an annual report that shares audited financial statements, a look at the company’s business overall, and financial conditions over the previous fiscal year. The financial information and metrics included on these reports, like earnings per share, is discussed during an earnings call.

💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.

What Is the Importance of Earnings Calls?

An earnings call is important because it allows a company’s management to discuss pertinent financial information and a company’s outlook.

Publicly-traded companies are not required to hold earnings calls; they are only required to release the details of their financial performance in a Form 10-Q or Form 10-K. However, most public companies have quarterly conference calls to keep shareholders up to date with the latest financial developments and provide context beyond the earnings data.

Earnings calls are also important for investors, especially those practicing fundamental analysis. These calls help long-term investors decide whether or not to invest in or continue investing in a company. For short-term traders, earnings calls may be helpful to capitalize on short-term volatility in a stock’s price immediately following an earnings call.

💡 Recommended: How to Analyze a Stock

The Structure of an Earnings Call

A company will announce upcoming earnings calls several days or even several weeks before the event. The company will usually issue a press release containing dial-in or webcast access information for stakeholders interested in participating in the call.

Earnings calls are generally scheduled in the morning, before the stock market’s opening bell, or in the afternoon, following the end of the day’s trading. These calls occur shortly after an earnings report is made public.

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Safe Harbor Statement

When the call begins, a company representative will likely share a safe harbor statement, which is a disclaimer about some of the comments executives will make. Specifically, some statements might be “forward-looking” and discuss future revenue, margins, income, expenses, and overall business outlook. Because no company can predict the future, the SEC requires that each warns investors that forward-looking statements may differ from actual results and trends.

Overview of Financial Results

The earnings call is usually led by the CEO, CFO, or other senior executives. During the call, these executives will deliver prepared statements covering financial results and the company’s performance for the reporting period.

This section of the call allows company leaders to give a more in-depth look at the company from their own eyes beyond the data found in the earnings reports. Executives may discuss market trends or even unpredictable factors that could influence how the company moves forward. Management will also likely share risks and their plans to take them on.

Question and Answer Session

At the end of the call, there may be a chance for investors and analysts to ask questions about the financial results the company presents. However, not everyone will get to ask a question. The company’s management may answer these questions, or they may decline or defer answering until they have the correct information to make an accurate response.

Preparing for an Earnings Call as a Shareholder

Before listening in on an earnings call, it may help to research the company and its earnings history and listen to previous earnings calls. Here’s additional information to know how to listen to an earnings call.

Where to Find Earnings Call Info?

Companies will send out a press release announcing when they will give an earnings call. Investors can also check the investor relations section of a company’s website for scheduled earnings calls. Additionally, some financial news websites may keep calendars of expected upcoming earnings reports and calls investors can check to stay current.

Many companies will post audio from the call on their website, making it available to investors and analysts for a few weeks. Companies also frequently offer transcripts of the call to read. This is especially useful for investors who may have missed an earnings call.

Much of the information discussed in conference calls, including Forms 10-Q and 10-K, are part of the public record and searchable on the SEC’s website. To find a company’s public filings, the SEC has a searchable Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval system (EDGAR).

How Long is an Earnings Call?

An earnings call usually lasts for less than an hour. However, there are no requirements for how long an earnings call should be.

What to Listen For

Investors should treat earnings calls as valuable information on a company but know that it doesn’t typically paint the complete picture of its potential performance.

Some key things investors should listen for in an earnings call are:

•   How the company performed compared to analysts’ expectations

•   What the company attributes its financial performance to

•   Any changes in guidance for the future

•   Any significant challenges or headwinds the company is facing

•   Questions from analysts and how management responds to them

💡 Recommended: The Ultimate List of Financial Ratios

Additionally, it may help to listen to the tone of the company’s executives when they are talking about the company’s performance. It isn’t quantifiable, but learning to pick up on the tone of management’s description of the company’s financials and the answers to analysts’ questions can help investors better understand the outlook for the company.

The Takeaway

Earnings calls provide investors with valuable insights into a company’s financial performance and outlook. These calls, paired with quarterly earnings reports, give investors a thorough understanding of the company, which helps with making investment decisions.

While earnings calls and earnings reports can be helpful to investors, keep in mind that they don’t tell the whole story. You’ll want to do your due diligence and further research to better inform your investment decisions, too.

Ready to invest in your goals? It’s easy to get started when you open an investment account with SoFi Invest. You can invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, alternative funds, and more. SoFi doesn’t charge commissions, but other fees apply (full fee disclosure here).

For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.

SoFi Invest®
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT FDIC INSURED • ARE NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
SoFi Invest encompasses two distinct companies, with various products and services offered to investors as described below:
Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of these platforms.

1) Automated Investing and advisory services are provided by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser (“SoFi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC.

2) Active Investing and brokerage services are provided by SoFi Securities LLC, Member FINRA (www.finra.org)/SIPC(www.sipc.org). Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.

For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above please visit SoFi.com/legal.

Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform.

Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.

Claw Promotion: Customer must fund their Active Invest account with at least $25 within 30 days of opening the account. Probability of customer receiving $1,000 is 0.028%. See full terms and conditions.

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