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Apache is functioning normally

The Federal Reserve ended its long streak of interest rate hikes last week, but the pause may offer little reprieve to Americans squeezed by higher borrowing costs.

The decision left interest rates unchanged at a range of 5% to 5.25%, the highest level since 2001. However, policymakers also opened the door to additional rate increases this year, meaning there could be more pain for would-be homebuyers in the form of steeper mortgage rates.

“Higher rates are a positive for savers, but it also means mortgage rates may not fall all the way back to where they were in 2020 and 2021,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group.

Mortgage rates spiked over the past year as the Fed waged an aggressive campaign to crush high inflation. In the span of just 16 months, the central bank approved 11 rate increases – the fastest pace of tightening since the 1980s.

A pedestrian passes the Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., on June 3, 2023.

MORTGAGE CALCULATOR: SEE HOW MUCH HIGHER RATES COULD COST YOU

While the federal funds rate is not what consumers pay directly, it affects borrowing costs for home equity lines of credit, auto loans and credit cards.

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Rates on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage are currently hovering around 7.19%, according to Freddie Mac, well above the 6.29% rate recorded one year ago and the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%. It is near the highest level in two decades.

MORTGAGE DEMAND DROPS AGAIN AS INTEREST RATES EASE SLIGHTLY

Below, you can calculate how volatile increases and decreases in rates could affect the typical cost of a monthly mortgage.

Even just a minor change in rates can affect how much would-be homebuyers pay each month.

A recent study from LendingTree compared the average monthly payments on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in April 2022 – when the rate hovered around 3.79% – and one year later, when rates jumped to 5.25%.

It found that higher rates cost borrowers hundreds more each month and potentially add as much as $75,000 over the lifetime of the 30-year loan.

The monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home, calculated using the current 30-year mortgage rates and a 6% down payment, is about $2,590. That is dramatically higher than just three years ago, when that same mortgage payment would cost about $1,779.

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The spike in mortgage rates comes as the Federal Reserve wages an aggressive campaign to crush high inflation, raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades in a bid to cool the economy and tame runaway prices.

While the federal funds rate is not what consumers pay directly, it affects borrowing costs, including everything such as home equity lines of credit, auto loans and credit cards.

Even just a minor change in mortgage rates can affect how much potential homebuyers pay each month.

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“Higher mortgage rates have radically altered homebuyer purchasing power and have been a key factor in existing home sales dropping from a more than 6.5 million unit pace in early 2022 to the roughly 4 million unit pace in recent months,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “Perhaps more importantly, higher mortgage rates continue to keep existing homeowners sidelined because they don’t want to borrow at today’s much higher rates.”

Original article source: See how much higher mortgage rates are actually costing you

Source: finance.yahoo.com

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A couple of closely followed mortgage rates sank over the last seven days. Average 15-year fixed mortgage rates climbed, while average 30-year fixed mortgage rates shrank, while The average rate of the most common type of variable-rate mortgage, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage, decreased.

As inflation surged in 2022, so too did mortgage rates. To rein in price growth, the Federal Reserve began bumping up its federal funds rate — a short-term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. By making it more expensive to borrow, the central bank’s goal is to reduce prices by curtailing consumer spending.

During its July 26 meeting, the Fed initiated a 25-basis point (or 0.25%) hike to its federal funds rate, marking its 11th increase in the current rate hiking cycle. The most recent increase could have an impact on mortgage rates, but experts say the markets may have already factored it into rates.

About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.

“Mortgage rates will continue to ebb and flow week to week, but ultimately, I think rates will stick to that 6% to 7% range we’re seeing now,” said Jacob Channel, senior economist at loan marketplace LendingTree.

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, but it does play an influential role. Mortgage rates move around on a daily basis in response to a range of economic factors, including inflation, employment and the broader outlook for the economy. A lower inflation rate is good news for mortgage rates, but the potential for additional hikes from the central bank this year will keep upward pressure on already high rates.

Rather than worrying about mortgage rates, though, homebuyers should focus on what they can control: getting the best rate they can for their financial situation.

To increase your odds at qualifying for the lowest rate available, take the steps necessary to improve your credit score and to save for a down payment. Also, be sure to compare the rates and fees from multiple lenders to get the best deal. Looking at the annual percentage rate, or APR, will show you the total cost of borrowing and help you make an apples-to-apples comparison among lenders.

30-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.55%, which is a decrease of 1 basis point from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) The most common loan term is a 30-year fixed mortgage. A 30-year fixed mortgage will usually have a greater interest rate than a 15-year fixed rate mortgage — but also a lower monthly payment. Although you’ll pay more interest over time — you’re paying off your loan over a longer timeframe — if you’re looking for a lower monthly payment, a 30-year fixed mortgage may be a good option.

15-year fixed-rate mortgages

The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.80%, which is an increase of 1 basis point from the same time last week. Compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year fixed mortgage with the same loan value and interest rate will have a bigger monthly payment. However, as long as you’re able to afford the monthly payments, there are several benefits to a 15-year loan. These include typically being able to get a lower interest rate, paying off your mortgage sooner, and paying less total interest in the long run.

5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages

A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.53%, a downtick of 3 basis points compared to a week ago. You’ll typically get a lower interest rate (compared to a 30-year fixed mortgage) with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But changes in the market could cause your interest rate to increase after that time, as detailed in the terms of your loan. For borrowers who plan to sell or refinance their house before the rate changes, an adjustable-rate mortgage could be a good option. Otherwise, changes in the market mean your interest rate may be significantly higher once the rate adjusts.

Mortgage rate trends

Mortgage rates were historically low throughout most of 2020 and 2021, but increased steadily throughout 2022 as the Federal Reserve began aggressively hiking interest rates. Now, mortgage rates are well above where they were a year ago. What does this mean for homebuyers this year?

“Mortgage rates have hovered in the 6% to 7% range for the past 10 months. Though home prices have softened slightly nationally, the still-high cost of borrowing means hopeful home buyers have felt little relief,” said Hannah Jones, economic research analyst at Realtor.com.

However, if inflation continues to decline and the Fed is able to hold rates where they are and eventually cut them, mortgage rates are likely to decrease slightly in 2023. However, they’re highly unlikely to return to the rock-bottom levels of just a few years ago.

The most recent housing forecast from Fannie Mae calls for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to close out the year at around 6.6%.

“Mortgage rates have been volatile for some time now and while they could eventually start trending down over the next six months to a year as inflation growth continues to cool, their path is probably going to be bumpy,” Channel said.

We use information collected by Bankrate to track changes in these daily rates. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the US:

Today’s mortgage interest rates

Loan term Today’s Rate Last week Change
30-year mortgage rate 7.55% 7.56% -0.01
15-year fixed rate 6.80% 6.79% +0.01
30-year jumbo mortgage rate 7.58% 7.58% N/C
30-year mortgage refinance rate 7.73% 7.75% -0.02

Rates as of Sept. 18, 2023.

How to find personalized mortgage rates

To find a personalized mortgage rate, speak to your local mortgage broker or use an online mortgage service. Make sure to take into account your current finances and your goals when trying to find a mortgage.

Specific mortgage interest rates will vary based on factors including credit score, down payment, debt-to-income ratio and loan-to-value ratio. Generally, you want a good credit score, a higher down payment, a lower DTI and a lower LTV to get a lower interest rate.

The interest rate isn’t the only factor that affects the cost of your home. Be sure to also consider additional factors such as fees, closing costs, taxes and discount points. Make sure you speak with a variety of lenders — like local and national banks, credit unions and online lenders — and comparison shop to find the best mortgage loan for you.

What is a good loan term?

One important consideration when choosing a mortgage is the loan term, or payment schedule. The loan terms most commonly offered are 15 years and 30 years, although you can also find 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages. Mortgages are further divided into fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. For fixed-rate mortgages, interest rates are fixed for the life of the loan. Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rates for an adjustable-rate mortgage are only the same for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years). After that, the rate changes annually based on the current interest rate in the market.

One thing to think about when choosing between a fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage is the length of time you plan on living in your home. For people who plan on living long-term in a new house, fixed-rate mortgages may be the better option. While adjustable-rate mortgages might have lower interest rates upfront, fixed-rate mortgages are more stable over time. If you aren’t planning to keep your new home for more than three to 10 years, though, an adjustable-rate mortgage may give you a better deal. There is no best loan term as a general rule; it all depends on your goals and your current financial situation. Be sure to do your research and know what’s most important to you when choosing a mortgage.

Source: cnet.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

The FOMC also said it would continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

During a press conference with reporters on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the committee decided to leave their policy interest rate unchanged. However, looking ahead, he did not exclude the possibility of another hike.

In spite of a higher-than-expected CPI reading in August, core inflation readings have been falling every month in 2023. Meanwhile, the pace at which new jobs were added to the economy slowed. Other labor market indicators, such as job openings and the unemployment rate, also point to a cooling economy, Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com noted.

Today’s decision not to raise rates will likely influence credit markets.

“In the mortgage market, for instance, consumers who have been holding off may begin to be motivated by the announcement to consider making the home purchase they have been waiting on,” Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, said. 

In fact, mortgage applications picked up in the week leading up to the Fed meeting, signaling a wave of optimism. 

The CME FedWatch Tool showed a 99% chance the Fed would halt its hikes to the 5.25 to 5.5% range on Wednesday morning, according to interest rate traders. However, only 70.9% of these investors bet officials will freeze the rate hike at the November 1st meeting. 

On Monday, mortgage rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were at 7.21%, according to HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center. However, at Mortgage News Daily, mortgage rates were higher on Tuesday, at 7.30%.

The effects of tighter policy have already reverberated across the economy. While mortgage rates have steadied just below recent highs, they remain more than 3 percentage points above their pandemic-era lows. In the housing sector, the combined impact of higher rates and higher home prices drove the cost of financing a home up more than $400, or 22.5%, from a year ago.

Overall, the market has been rather optimistic about the rate picture this year. However, a number of experts are concerned that lifting rates too high could send the economy into recession.

Inflation picked up to 3.7% in August, down significantly from where it was a year ago but still higher than the 2% threshold. Core inflation—which excludes food and energy costs—rose 4.3% in August. Raising interest rates is designed to tackle those still-high prices outside of the volatile food and energy sectors.

If shelter was excluded from the CPI calculation, inflation would be about 1% in August, said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant last week. In August, the rent index was up 7.2%, rising for the 40th consecutive month. Meanwhile, rent growth slowed considerably and median rents nationally fell year-over-year in August, according to Sturtevant. Additionally, apartment construction is strong, which puts an additional pressure on landlords to avoid vacancy. In the second quarter of 2023, the national vacancy rate was 6.3%, up from 5.6% a year earlier. However, it takes months for those aggregate rent trends to show up in the CPI measures.

What’s next?

Although the Fed decided to hold steady this time, it remains fixated on taming inflation and bringing it back to the 2% target. In light of this goal, Realtor.com’s Hale expects the Fed to keep the option for an additional future rate hike on the table. 

During the press conference, Powell remained  extremely cautious, insisting on the Fed’s data dependent approach. He reiterated that the decisions that will be made at the two remaining meetings in 2023 will depend on the totality of all the data gathered, including the inflation data, the labor market data, the growth data, the balance of risks, etc. As is custom now, he sidestepped questions from reporters about what would prompt the FOMC to raise rates again before the end of 2023 or hold them steady.

Powell also shared the committee’s economic projections, showing a longer period of elevated rates.

“FOMC participants expect the rebalancing in the labor market to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation,” Powell said. “The median unemployment rate projection in the summary economic projections rises from 3.8% at the end of this year to 4.1% over the next two years.”

Meanwhile, the median projection for total PCE inflation is 3.3% this year, 2.5% next year and to reach 2% in 2026, he added.

Even though inflation remains well above the Fed’s longrunning goal of 2%, he acknowledged that inflation has moderated since the middle of last year.

On the housing market, he noted that activity “picked up somewhat” although it remains well below the levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. 

Indeed, Sturtevant highlighted the resilience of the housing market in the face of rising interest rates. “Over the past year, buyer interest has remained high, home prices continued to rise in most markets, and homebuilding activity has surged,” she said.

However, she underlined that, even with today’s pause, the aggressive rate hikes have had major and somewhat deferred impacts on the housing market. 

As demand might decline in the fall, Sturtevant expects home prices to fall in some markets. However, price declines will remain modest as supply will remain low, she added. 

“The biggest downfall of the market cooling is that many individuals and families–particularly first-time homebuyers–have been priced out of the market as a result of the Fed’s aggressive rate increase,” she said.

This afternoon’s projections give valuable insight into the amount of improvement in inflation that the Fed would want to see before pausing or ending the current tightening. 

“The Federal Reserve is rightly on pause and is looking for more data before determining its next course on interest rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “With fewer job openings, slowing job gains, and softening core consumer price inflation, the Fed must consider the potential economic damage arising from any future rate hikes.”

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Marketing, CRM, Fair Lending, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Webinars and Training Next Week; Why do People Move?

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Marketing, CRM, Fair Lending, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Webinars and Training Next Week; Why do People Move?

By:
Rob Chrisman

7 Hours, 28 Min ago

Sometimes I send this Commentary out from some pretty nice places, sometimes not. Today comes from the tarmac at the Newark Airport, in Row 22, sitting next to some hairy guy who’s snoring and apparently went with the “Garlic Lover’s Pizza” last night. You can decide which category today fits in. “What do you call a small pepper in the autumn? A little chili.” Tomorrow is the fall equinox. Autumn? Autumnal? Different ways of saying similar things? Do you know the difference between a loan, a mortgage, a lien, a note, and a deed of trust? There are differences, just like there are differences in the reasons why people move. Unlike the convicted felon that I spent some time with yesterday, wanting a newer, better, or larger house or apartment has been the most common specific reason cited for moves over the past two years. That’s followed by establishing one’s own household, evidenced by a change in marital status becoming a more common reason for moving in 2022 than in 2021. The percentage of movers reporting housing unit upgrades declined, suggesting a reversal of a boom in housing demand that happened in 2020, early in the COVID-19 pandemic. A quarter of movers reported family-related reasons for their move, the second most often-cited general reason for moving in 2022 and in several recent years. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by the Trade-In Mortgage powered by Calque. Homeowners can buy before they sell, make non-contingent offers, and tap their home equity to fund the down payment on their next home. Lenders can help their clients negotiate a lower purchase price, reduce their interest payments, and eliminate PMI. Hear an interview with Mayer Brown LLP’s Lauren B. Pryor on M&A activity in the mortgage space and what makes for a successful transaction in the current environment.)

Lender and Broker Software, Programs, and Services

“Cheers to 20 Years! We are proud to announce the 20 Year Anniversary for Carrington Mortgage! It’s been an incredible two decades filled with trust, growth, and a commitment to serving our partners. As we celebrate this remarkable achievement, we want to express our heartfelt gratitude for your continued support. We look forward to many more years of serving our partners. We remain committed to being the industry’s leader in Non-QM solution lending. Our team of experts is ready to help you and your borrowers with a new home purchase or a refinance, all done in a timely and professional manner. Our program and product suite includes Non-QM, FHA, VA, USDA & GSE. Our Non-QM program offers you and your borrowers features and flexibility you may not find anywhere else. We’re here to help. Please contact us for more information about our products and services.”

In challenging down economic times, Loan Vision is your solution to maximizing profitability and reducing costs in your business. With Loan Vision, companies see improvements of 25% to 35% decrease in days to close the books, 20% reduction in accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility that allow for better business decisions. Don’t accept a competitive disadvantage or get caught flat footed in a recovering market. To improve your cash position, gain a competitive edge, and prepare your business for sustained growth, contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.

From what people are saying, The Loan Store has consistently been among the “pricing leaders” and “process leaders” with agency loans, and they’ve also really been making a nice name for themselves with their Quick-Pay HELOCs. TLS is funding HELOCs 100% within 3-5 days (and paying 175 bps in comp), and that’s a great tool for LOs looking to expand their business. Plus, word on the street is that TLS will be expanding HELOCs to Texas soon, so that’s something else for Lone Star State LO’s to get excited about. Regardless of where you’ve set up shop, price out a HELOC in the TLS/Figure HELOC portal. Or, if you haven’t signed up with TLS yet, do that here.

Recent Trends in Fair Lending Compliance! When the DOJ announced its Combatting Redlining Initiative in October 2021, it was the department’s “most aggressive and coordinated” enforcement effort against financial institutions. The initiative has cost financial institutions $40 million in the first half of 2023 alone. The DOJ and regulators have not let up on enforcement actions against financial institutions (banks, credit unions, mortgage companies, and other lenders) violating fair lending compliance laws. In fact, regulatory agencies have expanded the scope of fair lending enforcement. A recent article from the experts at Ncontracts highlights the significance of recent fair lending enforcement trends and what it means for your fair lending program. Read the full article.

Earlier this month, Apple announced the 15th version of its amazing, do-everything iPhone. It’s hard to imagine, but what if Steve Jobs never invented the iPhone? What if we all carried one device to make calls, and a completely different device to send a text? This is exactly what many lenders do today with their CRM software. They have one CRM for their retail loan officers, a different CRM for their direct-to-consumer team, and another CRM for their wholesale account executives. Wouldn’t it be nice to manage all of your business channels in just one CRM? That’s what OptifiNow Flex is: a retail, wholesale, correspondent, reverse, home equity and private money CRM that can be personalized to fit your business needs. Reach out to us to learn more and see why OptifiNow is the iPhone of mortgage CRM!

Attention Mortgage Lenders! Discover the secrets to thriving in this competitive market with our FREE white paper, tailored specifically for you. Written by Seroka Brand Development, the mortgage industry’s leading marketing and public relations company, this exclusive guide reveals top marketing and PR strategies for 2023. As the industry faces its current set of challenges, effective yet cost-conscious marketing is more crucial than ever for companies like yours, competing for every opportunity. Learn six impactful ways to reach your target market and secure success through the rest of 2023 and beyond. Don’t miss out on this invaluable resource: download your FREE white paper now.

Training, Webinars, and Events Next Week

A good place to start is here, and click on “events” for conferences in the future. Next week is the last week of September already?! Wasn’t it just Labor Day? Let’s see what’s up.

According to data from Gartner, two in three companies say customer experience is the primary area where they will compete for business. Lenders, how is your business utilizing customer feedback to drive revenue growth in today’s challenging market? Need help? Join STRATMOR Group’s customer experience experts as well as peer lenders for STRATMOR’s Customer Experience Workshop on September 25, 26 and 27. This highly interactive, virtual workshop is designed to give lenders specific, actionable ideas: you’ll learn how to optimize your loan processes to maximize repeat and referral business and achieve your growth goals in challenging market conditions. Register today!

Tuesday the 26th is the next Mortgages with Millennials with Kristin Messerli and Robbie Chrisman, and sponsored by National MI. Tune in every Tuesday at 10AM PT to the weekly video show designed to empower mortgage professionals to tap into the millennial market. This show demystifies the psychology of first-time homebuyers and offers strategies to win more market share with a key segment of the market. Sign up for a weekly reminder with the link to join and a sneak peek into the next episode.

On September 26, 2-3PM ET, FHA’s free, virtual webinar will assist FHA-approved lenders (and their auditors) with their upcoming Annual Recertification and provide information on how to successfully submit an acceptable recertification package via the Lender Electronic Assessment Portal (LEAP). For detailed information, closely review the LEAP User Manual.

Free, on-site, FHA Underwriting Training in Philadelphia, PA., September 26, 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM (Eastern) will provide an overview of FHA underwriting procedures and addresses several industry-related frequently asked questions (FAQs) as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of topics including credit, income, and asset (CIA) documentation; automated underwriting systems (AUS); closing; and more.

Free, on-site, FHA Appraisal Training in Philadelphia, PA., September 26, 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM (Eastern) will provide an overview of the appraisal requirements outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. The training topics will include property inspection requirements, appraisal validity period, manufactured homes, water and septic, attic and crawl spaces inspection, and the FHA Appraiser Roster.

If you are looking for the housing policy and fintech event of the year to watch from the comfort of your office, Housing Finance Strategies’ #HousingDC23 is it. The agenda is published, and Complimentary Registration is now available. Sign up to view the premium content offered virtually and accessible to you starting September 26th.

If your credit union’s due diligence for quality control relies only on last-minute adjustments during post-closing processes, chances are you’re spending too much time putting out fires rather than adequately serving members’ needs. Market changes demand a more comprehensive and proactive approach to due diligence, and the experts at ACES Quality Management have the wherewithal to help you make that adjustment. Tune into this Inside Track webinar on September 27th at 1 pm CST to learn the why’s and how’s of improving your QC processes.

Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT is a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements. Listen to a unique mix of age perspective, expertise, and charisma to the screen, ensuring that the information is not only educational but also entertaining.

California MBA upcoming Mortgage Quality and Compliance Committee webinar, Navigating the Future of Work: Adapting Return to Office Policies, on Thursday September 28th at 11 A.M. PST. Expert panelists will provide valuable insight on the ever-changing work dynamics, the challenges of managing remote and in-house teams, and MLO enhanced requirements in CA (and other states).

AzAMP Annual EXPO, Luncheon, and 8-Hour NMLS CE Class, September 27–28, at the We-Ko-Pa Resort and Casino. Begin your experience on Wednesday, Sept. 27 with Part 1 of NMLS CE class. Full day of events begins on Thursday, September 28 including NMLS CE class Part 2, Luncheon with Keynote Speakers Allen Beydoun, UWM Executive Vice President and Robbie and Rob Chrisman, The Chrisman Commentary Daily Mortgage News, followed by the AzAMP Expo.

Watch on demand, at your leisure: Millennials and Gen Z’ers represent the largest group of first-time homebuyers. In less than 10 years, 3.1 million will have entered the market. Of these buyers, roughly 75 percent of them report checking social media daily. Making social media a necessary strategy for loan officers. Join Homebot’s VP of Marketing, Ashley Remstad and Mortgage Advisor Sosi Avila as they discuss key strategies and tactics for using social media to your advantage. Register for the webinar here.

The NCEO 2023 Fall Forum in Houston is September 26-28. Featuring top industry experts and thought leaders, the forum will update you on the latest trends and best practices in employee ownership. Network with other employee owners and industry professionals from across the country, sharing ideas, challenges, and successes.

Friday the 29th is The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT in “The Rundown”.

Capital Markets

Remember when all the “smartest guys in the room” were telling us that an inverted yield curve was a nearly sure sign of a recession? I haven’t heard that one lately. Even with the Fed just signaling lower interest rate volatility going forward, in theory translating into tightening MBS spreads and lower rates, mortgage rates still jumped by over .125 percent yesterday thanks to falling bond prices and “non-trivial stack decompression.” Much of the decrease in bond prices over the past couple of days stems from the markets still trying to fight the Fed. The yield curve remains highly inverted and will only unwind once the hard landing scenario becomes less probable.

On the data front, Existing home sales decreased 0.7 percent month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million as sales were down 15 percent from the same period a year ago due to a well-known confluence of factors: higher mortgage rates, higher prices, limited supply, a lack of mobility, and homeowners who are reluctant to give up a low-rate mortgage. Keep in mind that an economic recession could also bring about an increase in inventory, as those who lose jobs may be forced to sell their homes and those uncertain about their jobs will not have the confidence to buy a home. While the overall U.S. economy remains resilient, there are growing signs starting to show U.S. households tightening budgets or starting to reduce discretionary spending.

Today’s economic calendar includes flash PMIs for much of Europe where modest increases are expected versus the prior readings. Domestically, S&P Global PMIs will be released later this morning, though the bigger headline is the resumption of Fed speakers following Wednesday’s FOMC events. Markets will receive remarks from Governor Cook, Boston President Collins, Minneapolis President Kashkari, and San Francisco President Daly. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices unchanged, the 10-year unchanged from Thursday at 4.48 percent, and the 2-year at 5.13.

Employment

“What distinguishes a company in the mortgage lending game? For Evergreen Home LoansTM, it’s an unwavering dedication to customer experience. As Evergreen’s CMO, Haavard Sterri, puts it, “At Evergreen Home Loans, customer satisfaction isn’t just a metric; it’s our mission. We go above and beyond to ensure our clients not only receive exceptional financial solutions but also feel valued every step of the way.” Take the Security Plus program, a gem that offers clients pre-approved, underwritten loans before house hunting begins. But why should job seekers pay attention? A firm that champions customer needs typically scores high on employee satisfaction. At Evergreen, you’re not a replaceable part; you’re integral to a collective mission of transforming the homebuying process. In a crowded field, Evergreen shines by marrying excellent customer service with fulfilling career opportunities. If you’re on the job hunt and value innovation, teamwork, and a relentless focus on the customer, Evergreen beckons. To view all open Evergreen careers visit our careers page.”

In the Northwest and California, Banner Bank is searching for Mortgage Loan Officers looking to create lasting Realtor and builder relationships at a bank focused on the market today. Banner has opportunities for lenders looking for local decision making with FHA, VA, USDA, state bond and true Portfolio lending opportunities along with servicing retained Fannie and Freddie loans to assist in client retention. Additional highlighted products cover CRA lending with private label no payment down payment assistance to help assist all borrowers with the right opportunity. Banner is the right fit for an established team, or the individual looking to grow their business and take the next step in their career. Please send resumes to Aaron Miller.

As a mortgage sales professional have you ever thought, “What if I could focus on only the things that actually grow my business, flipping the hourglass and spending 80 percent of my time on what I do best: building relationships?” Or “What if I could surround myself with sales support that is truly team inspired, results driven marketing and customer obsessed headache-free process?” Welcome to radius financial group! They started radius with one main focus: to offer a better value proposition than any other bank or mortgage company in the country for you, your borrowers and your referral partners. radius can help you grow your business, have a better quality of life, and make more money. For confidential inquires please contact Carla Herrera.

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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Mortgage rates remained well above 7% on Thursday as markets digested Wednesday’s Fed meeting. 

Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which focuses on conventional and conforming loans with a 20% down payment, shows the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.19% as of Sept. 21, up one basis point from last week’s 7.18%. By contrast, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.29% a year ago at this time.

“Mortgage rates continue to linger above 7% as the Federal Reserve paused their interest rate hikes,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said.

Elevated mortgage rates weigh negatively on the housing demand, and by extension on homebuilders, Kharter added.  

“Builder sentiment declined for the first time in several months and construction levels have dipped to a three-year low, which could have an impact on the already low housing supply,” he noted.

Other indices showed different mortgage rates this week.

HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed Optimal Blue’s 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.22% on Wednesday, compared to 7.16% the previous week. At Mortgage News Daily on Wednesday, the 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans was 7.33%, up from 7.22% the previous week.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee expect interest rates to remain elevated for longer than had been expected

The Fed paused its rate hikes yesterday as several economic indicators — including the improved core CPI figures, lower job openings, and higher unemployment rate — point towards a cooling economy. However, members remained cautious and the committee’s updated outlook implies a forthcoming monetary policy that is “tighter for longer,” Jiayi Xu, economist at Realtor.com said.

“With the year-end projection for 2023 remaining at 5.6%, we are drawing closer to another potential rate hike as the year approaches its end,” she said.

Furthermore, the expected policy rate for the conclusion of 2024 and 2025 is now half a percentage point higher than what was anticipated back in June, reinforcing the trend toward a more restrictive monetary policy in the path forward.

While higher interest rates indicate additional hurdles to come for the housing market, the fall typically ushers in more favorable buying conditions compared to the rest of the year, according to Xu.

“For those looking to purchase a home in this tough year, the first week of October will emerge as the best time to make a move,” Xu said.

Historical data suggests that during this particular week, home prices tend to dip below their peak levels, competition subsides, and the housing inventory expands compared to the busy summer months, she explained.

Meanwhile, homebuyers who can’t afford to buy a house in today’s market can rely on renting as rental prices are going down. 

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

The housing market will remain subdued until the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates next year, according to economists and housing pros following the central bank’s Wednesday announcement to leave the benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%.

Until interest rates come down, affordability challenges will continue to put first-time buyers on the sidelines, housing industry observers said. Real estate experts reiterated caution against further rate increases. 

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized incoming data will determine whether the central bank will raise its federal funds rate at its next FOMC meeting in November, the “dot-plot” of rate projections showed policymakers foresee one more hike by the year-end. The bulk of central bank officials expect to have interest rates finishing the year at around 5.6%.

In an elevated rate environment, the lack of inventory continues to be the biggest challenge for many potential buyers, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. 

“While homebuilder sentiment is clearly impacted by the recent surge in mortgage rates, permits for single-family homes provide a positive outlook for the pace of construction in the year ahead. If mortgage rates trend down in 2024 as we anticipate, the combination of more homes for sale and somewhat lower rates should support stronger purchase volume,” Mike Fratantoni, SVP and chief economist at the MBA.

The MBA expects mortgage rates should begin to reflect that the Fed’s moves in 2024 will be cuts – not further increases. MBA’s mortgage finance forecast projected the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to decline to 5.4% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025.

Powell also noted in a press conference that because people locked in “very low rate mortgages, even if they want to move now, that would be hard because the new mortgage would be so expensive.”

Rates are most likely to stay elevated until 2024, said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, thus putting a damper on the number of home sales transactions.

“Higher mortgage rates have radically altered homebuyer purchasing power and have been a key factor in existing home sales dropping from a more than 6.5 million unit pace in early 2022  to the roughly 4 million unit pace in recent months,” Hale said. 

More importantly, higher mortgage rates continue to keep existing homeowners sidelined, with as many as one in seven buyers out of the market because they don’t want to borrow at today’s much higher rates, Hale noted. 

Short-term mortgage rate movement

In the short-term, mortgage rates are likely to bounce around a bit as the markets digest upcoming economic data, Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, said. 

Incoming data of job and CPI reports next month will provide more clarity on how strong the economy is. Reports on jobs and inflation will be released on October 6 and October 12, respectively. 

“If the data reveals that inflation remains elevated and employment is still growing, then mortgage rates are likely to move up and we can look for what we hope to be the last rate hike of this cycle,” Cohn said.

The rapid ascent is mostly behind us but it will be a while before the economy sees any sign of a gradual descent, Marty Green, principal at mortgage law firm Polunsky Beitel Green, added.

“In my view, this means the mortgage interest rate environment will continue to bounce sideways through the next several months,” Green said.

Mortgage rates have been on an upward trend this year with rates in August surging to 7.23%—the highest since 2001.

Fed officials expect interest rates to be at 5.1% in 2024, up from the 4.6% projected in June. Officials expect fewer cuts in 2025 with the median estimate for the benchmark rate to be at 3.9%, up from 3.4%. 

The committee raised its projections for growth, and is looking for a better-than-expected labor market as well, with the jobless rate peaking at 4.1%, rather than 4.5%.

Pushback against further rate increases

With two more scheduled FOMC meetings in November and December, housing experts cautioned against further rate increases.

The Fed must consider the potential economic damage arising from any future rate hikes, Lawrence Yun, chief economist at National Association of Realtors, reiterated his position. 

“Commercial real estate has come under stress from higher interest rates, which will further negatively impact community banks due to their large exposure to the sector. Therefore, the Fed needs to wait and not raise rates. Possible interest rate cuts then need to be considered once inflation is fully under control,” Yun said.

Overall data point to an accelerating slowdown but continues to be mixed because of some lagging indicators, Green noted.

Unemployment rates and the CPI component lags measures of market rents by around a year.

“With rates elevated into restrictive territory, I expect the Fed to be patient and hold off on any additional increases until it becomes clearer that an additional rate hike is warranted,” Green said. 

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

In the world of real estate, where property expertise reigns supreme, it comes as little surprise that the most successful real estate agents own some of the most remarkable and envy-inducing residences.

With their extensive knowledge of market trends and investment potential — not to mention their keenly trained eye for luxury living — real estate pros are the first to spot desirable properties, often before they are even listed for the general public to see.

They then leverage their design expertise and Rolodex of industry connections to turn their homes into personal sanctuaries that serve as living testaments to their industry acumen and discerning tastes.

Such is the case of Billy Rose, realtor to the stars and co-founder of luxury real estate brokerage, The Agency.

Rose, rated as one of the best real estate agents in Los Angeles (and the entire country, once being named the Number 10 real estate agent in the U.S. by The Wall Street Journal), owns an architecturally distinct home in one of Los Angeles’ best areas, which he’s now bringing to market.

Priced at $5,895,000, the elegant abode has served as Billy Rose’s personal residence for 20 years.

Located in the sought-after Westword neighborhood, the property sits on the “first lot bought in highly coveted Westwood Hills”, per the listing, and is known as the Murrow Residence, named after its original owners.

Rose himself provided a little bit of background on the home’s history.

“The Murrows considered the lot to be the trophy of Westwood Hills,” Billy Rose tells us. “Mr. Murrow, for whom the home was built, was (as I understand it) a bit of a “mucky muck” at the Rand Corporation. He had rigged the front door such that he could attach a 35mm projector to the door and project through to the living room.“

But it’s not just the location that appealed to The Agency co-founder.

The home’s distinct design played a big role too. The 1940-built residence is an outstanding example of International Style architecture (post Deco and pre Mid-Century Modern).

Photo credit: The Agency

“I find International Style architecture to be sublime,” Billy Rose shared in an exclusive comment for Fancy Pants Homes. “The style is best described as stripped of all unnecessary ornamentation and about accentuating the strengths of the home (the view, the layout, the light, the circulation, the air flow). Le Corbusier (one of the pioneers of what is now regarded as modern architecture) summed it up best when he called a house a “machine for living”.“

Vintage and collectible lighting, designer finishes, and terrazzo and custom-milled walnut floors complement the home’s unique style, while broad expanses of glass in every direction bring the outdoors in.

Photo credit: The Agency
Photo credit: The Agency
Photo credit: The Agency

The house has a total of 5 bedrooms — all suites — with the primary being touted as “one of the best primary suites in its class with extremely generous dual closets and baths”, per the listing.

Photo credit: The Agency
Photo credit: The Agency
Photo credit: The Agency

The inviting chef’s kitchen has its own claim to fame.

“My wife is a chef and she filmed her show “Taste of Melrose” from there,” shared Rose whose wife, model-turned-chef Melissa Rose, has been filming her cooking show in their camera-ready kitchen for years.“It was not only a great exhibition kitchen, but it served us well for our numerous dinner parties.”

Photo credit: The Agency
Photo credit: The Agency
Photo credit: The Agency

When prompted to pick his favorite area of the house, The Agency co-founder signaled out the primary bedroom suite, along with “the original stairway, with its two-story Torrance steel window system“, which he says was one of the things that drew him to the property.

Photo credit: The Agency

Heading outside, we find a secluded backyard oasis with a cascading pool, spa, fire pit, grassy yard, dining and lounging areas, with mature landscaping, tall hedges, and privacy walls shielding it from prying eyes.

Photo credit: The Agency
Photo credit: The Agency

Unsurprisingly, Billy Rose holds the listing along with Stefan Pommepuy, also with The Agency.

And while Rose hasn’t yet been part of the cast of Buying Beverly Hills, the Netflix series starring agents from the luxury real estate brokerage he co-founded alongside Mauricio Umansky, we’re hoping his house will — and that the second season of the show will give us a better look inside his inviting abode.

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Source: fancypantshomes.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

Mortgage rates remain anchored north of 7% as investors focus on the impact of rising headline inflation ahead of next week’s Fed rate decision. 

Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which focuses on conventional and conforming loans with a 20% down payment, shows the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.18% as of Sept. 14, up from last week’s 7.12%. By contrast, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.02% a year ago at this time.

“The reacceleration of inflation and strength in the economy is keeping mortgage rates elevated,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said. “However, potential homebuyers can still benefit during these times of high mortgage rates by shopping around for the best rate quote.”

Indeed, Freddie Mac research suggests homebuyers can potentially save $600-$1,200 annually by applying for mortgages from multiple lenders.

Other indices showed different mortgage rates this week.

HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed Optimal Blue’s 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.16% on Tuesday, compared to 7.20% the previous week. At Mortgage News Daily on Wednesday, the 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans was 7.22%, down from 7.33% the previous week.

What to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week ?

On Wall Street and in Washington, investors believe that the Federal Reserve is poised to steer the economy toward a soft landing. Even if August’s headline inflation was driven up by energy prices, the core CPI provided more evidence that core inflation is trending down toward pre-pandemic levels, Jiayi Xu, economist at Realtor.com said. Overall, she expects that inflation will continue to move in the right direction as shelter costs have moved down for five consecutive months on a year-over-year basis. Additionally, Realtor.com’s median asking-rents indicate rental prices have been gradually declining. 

“Overall, we expect the Fed will maintain its ‘wait-and-see’ approach in its next FOMC meeting and closely monitor future data,” Xu said.

However, some economists also say that the economy is veering toward a contraction, with 10-year yields holding below 3-month yields, Bloomberg reported. On Thursday, the market surpassed the 1980 record to hold that way for the longest consecutive daily stretch since Bloomberg’s records began in 1962.

How are mortgage rates affecting the housing market ?

As many existing homeowners are staying put in today’s elevated mortgage rates environment, the inventory problem persists and puts first-time homebuyers in a difficult position. Indeed, over one-third (34%) of prospective buyers have yet to purchase a home because there are not enough homes for sale in their budget, HousingWire reported on Thursday. 

On the buyers’ side, high mortgage rates continue to subdue demand, with mortgage applications in the first full week of September falling to lows last seen in 1996.

Even as housing demand cools this fall, inventory will remain low, Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said. 

In that context, prospective homebuyers are scrambling to find solutions, she added.

“Some families are buying homes together, with millennials teaming up with their Baby Boomer parents to buy a multigenerational home. Other buyers are looking for opportunities to purchase a home where they rent out part of it to generate additional income.”

Buyers are also pushed to making trade-offs, such as looking for smaller homes and expanding their neighborhood searches.

“MBA expects some of the recent volatility in rates to subside enough that the 30-year fixed rate will fall closer to 6% by the end of the year,” MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit said. 

Source: housingwire.com