LOS ANGELES (AP) — The spring homebuying season is off to a sluggish start as home shoppers contend with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell 4.3% in March from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the first monthly decline in sales since December and follows a nearly 10% monthly sales jump in February.
Existing home sales also fell 3.7% compared with March last year. The latest sales still came in slightly higher than the 4.16 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
A modest pullback in mortgage rates early this year helped lift home sales in January and February, but rates mostly ticked up in February and March, when many of the home sales that were finalized last month would have taken place.
AP correspondent Shelley Adler reports on the spring homebuying season.
Mortgage rates have risen the past three weeks, with the average rate on a 30-year mortgage moving this week above 7% to its highest level since late November, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday.
The trend is a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.
“Home sales essentially remain stuck because (the) mortgage rate has been stable and inventory is not really rising,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Despite the pullback in sales, the national median home sales price climbed 4.8% from a year earlier to $393,500. That’s the highest median sales price for any March on records going back to 1999 and marks the ninth month in a row that prices have risen compared to a year earlier.
The latest surge in prices reflects the heightened competition many home shoppers are facing. Consider, 60% of homes purchased in March sold within less than a month of hitting the market. And 29% of homes sold above their initial list price, up from 28% in March last year, Yun said.
“Inventory is simply not there,” he said.
While the supply of homes on the market remains below the historical average, the typical increase in homes for sale that happens ahead of the spring homebuying season gave home shoppers a wider selection of properties to choose from.
At the end of last month, there were 1.11 million unsold homes on the market, a 4.7% increase from February and up 14.4% from a year earlier, the NAR said. That’s still well short of the 1.7 million homes on the market in March 2019, before the pandemic.
The available inventory at the end of last month amounted to a 3.2-month supply, going by the current sales pace. That’s up from a 2.9-month supply in February and a 2.7-month supply in March last year. In a more balanced market between buyers and sellers, there is a 4- to 5-month supply.
That shortage of homes on the market means home sellers generally having an edge on buyers, especially those vying for the most affordable homes, which often fetch multiple offers.
The U.S. housing market is coming off a deep, 2-year sales slump triggered by a sharp rise in mortgage rates and a dearth of homes on the market. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank to a nearly 30-year low last year, tumbling 18.7% from 2022 as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage surged to a 23-year high of 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage got as low as 6.67% in mid January, but has been creeping higher, reaching 7.1% this week. When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford.
Mortgage rates have mostly drifted higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation stoked doubt among bond investors over how soon the Federal Reserve will move to lower its benchmark interest rate.
Home loan borrowing rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The central bank wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.
Many economists still expect that mortgage rates will ease modestly this year, which could give homebuyers who can’t afford to pay all cash for a home more purchasing power.
“The 30-year-fixed mortgage rate could rise for few months to maybe even 7.5% before settling back down to 6.5% by the end of the year,” Yun said. In January, NAR forecast the average rate would drop to 6.1% by year’s end.
Economists at Realtor.com also project that the rate could average 6.5% by the end of this year.
For now, first-time homebuyers who don’t have any home equity to put toward their down payment continue to have a tough time getting into the housing market, though they accounted for 32% of all homes sold last month, an increase from 26% in February and 28% in March last year. That’s still well short of the 40% of sales they’ve accounted for historically.
Prospective homebuyers are facing competition from buyers who can afford to buy a home in cash. Some 28% of homes sold last month were purchased entirely with cash, down from 33% in February, but up from 27% a year ago, the NAR said.
Homes in Rocklin, California, on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage crossed over 7% on April 1, according to Mortgage News Daily, and it just kept going. It now sits right around 7.5%, the highest level since mid-November of last year.
Rates hit their highest level in a few decades last October, causing home sales to grind to a halt. Builders jumped to buy down rates for their customers and managed to do better than existing home sellers.
Rates then fell through mid-January to the mid-6% range and held there into February, causing a surge in home sales. But then they began rising again.
“By mid-February, a pick-up in inflation reset expectations, putting mortgage rates back on an upward trend, and more recent data and comments from Fed Chair [Jerome] Powell have only underscored inflation concerns,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “Sales data over the next few months is likely to reflect the impact of now-higher mortgage rates.”
Even with rates higher, however, mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Demand was still 10% lower than the same week one year ago, even with rates now 70 basis points higher than they were a year ago.
“Despite these higher rates, application activity picked up, possibly as some borrowers decided to act in case rates continue to rise,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s chief economist.
That may be short-lived, however, as affordability weakens even further. While there is more supply on the market now than there was a year ago, it is still at a very low level historically. That has caused homes to move faster as the competition increases. Anyone waiting for rates to drop significantly may be waiting for a while.
“Recent economic data shows that the economy and job market remain strong, which is likely to keep mortgage rates at these elevated levels for the near future,” said Bob Broeksmit, MBA’s president and CEO.
In Naples, Florida’s prestigious Aqualane Shores — consistently ranked as one of the most expensive residential areas in the nation — a breathtaking new listing has hit the market for $16.5 million.
This modern marvel, designed by the acclaimed Jonathan Kukk and decked out by Amy Storm & Company, spans nearly 5,500 square feet and features five bedrooms, each with its own ensuite bathroom, and a slew of luxurious amenities including an elevator, pool, spa, and direct Gulf access.
The listing, brought to market by the power team at the Dawn McKenna Group, one of Coldwell Banker’s leading real estate teams, stands out with its impeccable design and bright, light-filled spaces and we’re here to take you on a quick tour of the striking abode.
What $16.5M buys you in Naples, Florida
Nestled in the heart of Naples, Florida, the newly built luxury home stands two stories tall, overlooking the canal.
Spanning nearly 5,500 square feet, this beauty comes with five bedrooms plus a den, five and a half baths, and luxe amenities like an elevator, a shimmering pool and spa, plus a view of the canal with Gulf access.
And if you think $16.5 million is a steep price to pay to enjoy living in Naples, know that a nearby property is asking $174 million, while another 9-acre compound in the area landed on the market with a bang earlier this year, asking $295 million. The price point instantly made it the most expensive house for sale in the entire country.
Architectural artistry by Jonathan Kukk
Designed by the esteemed Jonathan Kukk, CEO and Founder of Kukk Architecture & Design, this house is a testament to modern architectural genius.
Kukk, known for his ability to blend functionality with aesthetic appeal, has created a structure that’s not just a house, but a piece of art. His designs often feature clean lines and open spaces that maximize natural light, and this home is no exception.
Interior elegance by Amy Storm & Company
The interior of this home is the first project in Naples for Amy Storm & Company, a top-tier Chicago-based design firm.
They’ve brought their renowned expertise to the table, creating interiors that feature natural materials, layered neutrals, and finishes that radiate harmony. Every corner of the home reflects their signature style of understated elegance combined with modern comfort.
Anchored by a beautifully appointed kitchen
At the heart of the home, the custom-designed kitchen is a chef’s dream. It boasts Aella Marble countertops and backsplash, a top-notch La Cornue stove, and state-of-the-art appliances.
Whether you’re whipping up a quick breakfast or hosting a gourmet dinner, this kitchen doesn’t just keep up; it stands out.
See also: Top 10 Celebrity Kitchens We Can’t Get Over
Grandeur in the great room
Adjacent to the kitchen, the great room is where this home’s personality shines. It’s a sprawling space meant for living large, whether you’re hosting a party or unwinding after a long day.
With its high ceilings, sophisticated lighting, and a layout that encourages easy conversation, it’s the perfect backdrop for making memories.
Blissful bedrooms
Upstairs, down the hall, everywhere you look — comfort meets style in the five generously sized bedrooms, each featuring an ensuite bathroom.
Thanks to the thoughtful placement of bedrooms over two levels and an elevator to stitch the spaces together, convenience is literally at every turn.
See also: Shaquille O’Neal’s house in Orlando — with the Superman Bed
Outdoor oasis
Step outside to a southern exposure that bathes the landscape in sunlight.
The home’s outdoor area is an entertainer’s paradise, complete with a plush lanai, an outdoor kitchen, and a plaster-clad fireplace for those chillier evenings. Whether it’s pool parties by day or cozy fireside chats by night, this space is ready for any event.
Living it up in Aqualane Shores
Aqualane Shores isn’t just any neighborhood, it’s one of Naples’ most exclusive addresses.
Known for its luxurious homes and pristine waterways, living here means you’re part of a vibrant community that enjoys the finer things in life — boating, easy Gulf access, and breathtaking views are just the beginning.
And properties come with mark-ups to match: The median listing price for the neighborhood sits at a hefty $16 million, per Realtor.com, with a median price/sq. ft. of $2.8k, which makes the coveted community one of the most expensive residential areas in the country.
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Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
Mortgage rates continue to surge, pushing back above 7% after months of volatility. Homebuyers taking out a home loan with a 7% interest rate are budgeting hundreds more than expected to cover their average monthly mortgage payment.
For the past two years, prospective homebuyers have been pushed to the sidelines due to higher interest rates. A February survey by Realtor.com noted that 40% of potential homebuyers said they’d be more willing to take on a mortgage if rates were to drop below 6%. Yet most mortgage forecasts don’t expect rates to dip below that number until 2025.
Though mortgage rates fluctuate daily, you don’t have to wait another year for market rates to drop. Getting a 6% mortgage rate could be possible right now, as long as your finances are in shape and you find a mortgage lender that fits your needs.
Today’s mortgage rates are around 7%
In early April, the average weekly rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is hovering around 7%, according to Bankrate, CNET’s sister site.
Rates generally climb higher when the economy is strong and drop at the sign of trouble. When the pandemic pushed the economy into uncertainty in 2020, rates plummeted to historic lows and hovered below 4% for the next two years.
Yet high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed rates higher, reaching 8% last October.
“What’s keeping rates volatile and higher is an underlying strong economy,” said Nicole Rueth, senior vice president with Movement Mortgage. “We continue to have economic reports and indicators that show consumers are spending and staying confident.”
The good news for homebuyers is that mortgage rates are expected to slowly decline in 2024, though they won’t reach record lows again.
Read more: You Won’t Get a 2% Mortgage Again. How to Adjust to a Different Housing Market
What’s the difference between a 6% or 7% rate?
Snagging a 6% rate can offer savings on your monthly payment and over the life of the loan. A difference of 1 percentage point may not seem like much, but the savings add up over time.
For instance, let’s say you buy a home for $400,000 and make a down payment of 20% on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The difference between a 7% rate and a 6% rate means a savings of $210 a month, which amounts to $75,746 saved over the life of the loan.
How to get a 6% mortgage rate now
Many factors go into determining mortgage rates. You can’t control the economic factors, but there are ways to prepare your finances to get the best deal and lower your personal rate.
1. Buy mortgage points
A mortgage point, also known as a mortgage discount point, is an upfront fee you can pay the lender in exchange for a lower interest rate on your home loan. Each point costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and usually knocks the rate down by 0.25%.
On a $400,000 home, you’d pay $4,000 for one discount point. The lender may even allow you to buy four mortgage points to lower the rate from 7% to 6%, though you’d have to shell out $16,000 to get there.
To check whether this strategy is worthwhile, take the total cost of the points, and compare it to the overall monthly savings. “How long is it going to take you to pay it back? Are you going to be in the house that long?” Rueth asked.
In this case, when you pay $16,000 to buy four points and save $210 per month, it would take you more than six years to reach your break-even point.
2. Improve your credit score
Lenders look at your credit score to decide whether you qualify for a home loan and the interest rate you receive. Generally, a higher credit score shows you’ve managed debt responsibly in the past. A better credit history lowers your risk to a lender, which can help you secure a lower interest rate.
In fact, raising your credit score from the “fair” range to the “very good” range may help lower your rate by around 0.22 percentage points, according to a 2024 Lending Tree survey. In the survey example, that rate difference helped borrowers save $16,677 over the lifetime of a home loan.
3. Increase your down payment
Your down payment is the amount you can contribute to your home purchase upfront. Each type of home loan comes with a minimum down payment, usually ranging from 0% to 5%, but a higher down payment can help lower your rate. That’s because the lender takes on less risk when you contribute more toward the loan.
Because a down payment lowers your rate and contributes to your home equity, some home loan experts recommend making a larger down payment, around 20%, instead of buying mortgage points. That’s because if you sell the home or refinance before reaching your break-even point, you lose money. But the amount you spent for your down payment becomes part of your equity.
4. Take out an adjustable-rate mortgage
An adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, is a home loan with a fixed rate for a set introductory period, such as five years. Once that period ends, the interest rate can go up or down in regular intervals for the remaining term.
The big appeal of ARMs is that the introductory interest rate is often lower than the rate on traditional mortgages. In early March, the average 5/1 ARM rate was 6.61% compared to 6.98% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
5. Negotiate your mortgage rate
When you’re applying for mortgage loans, you don’t have to go with the company that did your preapproval. In fact, research shows that getting rate quotes from multiple lenders and comparing offers can result in significant savings. If you want to use this strategy, start by submitting a mortgage application with lenders that fit your criteria. Once you have a few loan estimates in hand, use the best one to negotiate with the lender you want to work with.
The loan officer may lower your rate, help you save on closing costs or offer other incentives to get you onboard. In early 2022, one-third of homebuyers negotiated their mortgage rates and many were able to get a better deal, according to research from Fannie Mae.
6. Get a shorter home loan term
Nearly 90% of homebuyers choose a 30-year fixed mortgage term because it offers the most flexibility and monthly payment affordability. Payments are lower because they’re stretched over a longer timeline, but you can always put more toward the principal here and there. But when you take out a longer-term home loan, “you’re holding up the lender’s money, and there’s an opportunity cost for the funds to be invested elsewhere,” Rueth said.
Shorter loan terms (10-year and 15-year mortgages) and ARMs have lower interest rates, giving you the option of reducing your rate now.
Choosing a shorter repayment term could help you save money since you’ll be paying less in interest over the long term. But don’t make the homebuying mistake of choosing a shorter loan term just for the lower rate. Because you’ll have less time to pay back the money you borrow, shorter loan terms break down to higher monthly payments, and you’ll need to make sure those fit within your budget.
Is a 6% mortgage rate even that affordable?
In short, yes, but it’s all relative.
“In today’s market, 6% is a great rate compared to the historic average of a little over 7%,” Rueth said. “However, 6% no longer looks good because homeowners were spoiled by 2.75% mortgage rates a few years ago.”
Homeowners also feel the burden of steep home prices, making those high rates hurt even more.
But you can save money on your mortgage by taking some (or all) of these steps. Improving your credit score, increasing your down payment, buying points and negotiating your rate may help bring your rate from 7% down to 6%, or even lower.
US households have felt the pain of higher interest rates over the last two years. Homebuyers taking out a home loan with a 7% interest rate are likely budgeting hundreds more than expected to cover their average monthly mortgage payment.
A recent survey by Realtor.com noted that 22% of potential homebuyers said they’d be more willing to take on a mortgage if rates were to drop below 6%. Most mortgage forecasts don’t expect rates to dip below that number until 2025.
But you don’t have to wait for market rates to drop. Getting a 6% mortgage rate could be possible right now.
What are average mortgage rates now?
Mortgage rates change daily, but as of March, the average weekly rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been around 7%, according to Bankrate, CNET’s sister site.
Rates generally climb higher when the economy is strong and drop at the sign of trouble. When the pandemic pushed the economy into uncertainty in 2020, rates plummeted to historic lows and hovered below 4% for the next two years.
Yet high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed rates higher, reaching 8% last October.
“What’s keeping rates volatile and higher is an underlying strong economy,” said Nicole Rueth, senior vice president with Movement Mortgage. “We continue to have economic reports and indicators that show consumers are spending and staying confident.”
The good news for homebuyers is that mortgage rates are expected to slowly decline in 2024, though they won’t reach record lows again.
Does 1% make a difference?
Snagging a 6% rate can offer savings on your monthly payment and over the life of the loan. A difference of 1 percentage point may not seem like much, but the savings add up over time.
For instance, let’s say you buy a home for $400,000 and make a down payment of 20% on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The difference between a 7% rate and a 6% rate means a savings of $210 a month, which amounts to $75,746 saved over the life of the loan.
How can I get a 6% rate?
Many factors go into determining mortgage rates. You can’t control the economic factors, but there are ways to prepare your finances to get the best deal and lower your personal rate.
Buy mortgage points
A mortgage point, also known as a mortgage discount point, is an upfront fee you can pay the lender in exchange for a lower interest rate on your home loan. Each point costs 1% of the purchase price of a home and usually knocks the rate down by 0.25%.
On a $400,000 home, you’d pay $4,000 for one discount point. The lender may even allow you to buy four mortgage points to lower the rate from 7% to 6%, though you’d have to shell out $16,000 to get there.
To check whether this strategy is worthwhile, take the total cost of the points, and compare it to the overall monthly savings. “How long is it going to take you to pay it back? Are you going to be in the house that long?” Rueth asked.
In this case, when you pay $16,000 to buy four points and save $210 per month, it would take you more than six years to reach your break-even point.
Improve your credit score
Lenders look at your credit score to decide whether you qualify for a home loan and the interest rate you receive. Generally, a higher credit score shows you’ve managed debt responsibly in the past. A better credit history lowers your risk to a lender, which can help you secure a lower interest rate.
In fact, raising your credit score from the “fair” range to the “very good” range may help lower your rate by around 0.22 percentage points, according to a 2024 Lending Tree survey. In the survey example, that rate difference helped borrowers save $16,677 over the lifetime of a home loan.
Increase your down payment
Your down payment is the amount you can contribute to your home purchase upfront. Each type of home loan comes with a minimum down payment, usually ranging from 0% to 5%, but a higher down payment can help lower your rate. That’s because the lender takes on less risk when you contribute more toward the loan.
Because a down payment lowers your rate and contributes to your home equity, some home loan experts recommend making a larger down payment, around 20%, instead of buying mortgage points. That’s because if you sell the home or refinance before reaching your break-even point, you lose money. But the amount you spent for your down payment becomes part of your equity.
Take out an adjustable-rate mortgage
An adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, is a home loan with a fixed rate for a set introductory period, such as five years. Once that period ends, the interest rate can go up or down in regular intervals for the remaining term.
The big appeal of ARMs is that the introductory interest rate is often lower than the rate on traditional mortgages. In early March, the average 5/1 ARM rate was 6.61% compared to 6.98% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Negotiate your rate
When you’re applying for mortgage loans, you don’t have to go with the company that did your preapproval. In fact, research shows that getting rate quotes from multiple lenders and comparing offers can result in significant savings. If you want to use this strategy, start by submitting a mortgage application with lenders that fit your criteria. Once you have a few loan estimates in hand, use the best one to negotiate with the lender you want to work with.
The loan officer may lower your rate, help you save on closing costs or offer other incentives to get you onboard. In early 2022, one-third of homebuyers negotiated their mortgage rates and many were able to get a better deal, according to research from Fannie Mae.
Get a shorter loan term
Nearly 90% of homebuyers choose a 30-year fixed mortgage term because it offers the most flexibility and monthly payment affordability. Payments are lower because they’re stretched over a longer timeline, but you can always put more toward the principal here and there. But when you take out a longer-term home loan, “you’re holding up the lender’s money, and there’s an opportunity cost for the funds to be invested elsewhere,” Rueth said.
Shorter loan terms (10-year and 15-year mortgages) and ARMs have lower interest rates, giving you the option of reducing your rate now.
Choosing a shorter repayment term could help you save money since you’ll be paying less in interest over the long term. But don’t make the homebuying mistake of choosing a shorter loan term just for the lower rate. Because you’ll have less time to pay back the money you borrow, shorter loan terms break down to higher monthly payments, and you’ll need to make sure those fit within your budget.
Is a 6% mortgage rate even that good?
In short, yes — but it’s all relative.
“In today’s market, 6% is a great rate compared to the historic average of a little over 7%,” Rueth said. “However, 6% no longer looks good because homeowners were spoiled by 2.75% mortgage rates a few years ago.”
Homeowners are also feeling the burden of steep home prices, making those high rates hurt even more.
But you can save money on your mortgage by taking some (or all) of these steps. Improving your credit score, increasing your down payment, buying points and negotiating your rate may help bring your rate from 7% down to 6%, or even lower.
Mortgage rates surged closer to 7% this week, a blow to hopeful homebuyers this spring.
The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.87% from 6.74% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. Rates tilted higher as inflation remained hotter than expected, leading to the Fed putting off any potential rate cuts until summer.
The uptick in rates caused some rate-sensitive homebuyers to retreat from the market, as affordability remains a top concern for the entry-level pool. Those looking to refinance also backed away from their plans as the chances of grabbing a lower rate slipped away.
Still, housing experts remain hopeful about the direction of affordability as more inventory trickles into the market.
“The housing market continues to face elevated mortgage rates, high prices, and low for-sale inventory,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com. “As the spring season approaches, many buyers and sellers are getting warmed up to enter the housing market.”
Demand falters as rates jump higher
As mortgage rates rebounded, both refinance and purchase activity faltered — a recurring theme this season.
The volume of applications to refinance a home fell 3% for the week ending March 15 and was 3% lower than the same week a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Demand for refinance had gained surprising momentum in the weeks leading up to March 8, with applications up 12%. The sudden jump in activity was due to a larger 24% increase in the government refinance index, the MBA noted, as homeowners who purchased at top rates last year were closely attuned to any opportunity to snatch a lower rate.
But as rates rebounded this week, that window of opportunity closed.
Read more: Mortgage rates hover around 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Purchase applicants also retreated from the market, with the volume of applications to buy a home down 1% for the week and 14% lower than the same week a year ago.
“Most homebuyers are sensitive to interest rates, which is why we see mortgage applications increase when rates fall and decline with rates increase,” said Bright MLS chief economist Dr. Lisa Sturtevant.
“However, not all homebuyers are equally sensitive to interest rates,” she added. “The number of cash buyers has increased. In many markets, these cash buyers are not investors but regular home buyers who have accrued significant equity in an existing home that they can roll over into the purchase of a new home.”
Just getting into a home has become more expensive. Mortgage News Daily, which tracks rates daily, revealed that rates surpassed 7% last week and have remained above that threshold as of March 20.
For first-time homebuyers, in particular, the fluctuation of rates has been a tough blow — especially as inventory of entry-level homes remains scarce and competition for homes within their price point is picking up.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the average price of a previously owned home increased to $384,500 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. The median price was also 5.7% higher than a year earlier.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Housing demand has been on a steady rise due to population and job growth, though the actual timing of purchases will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.”
Buyers and sellers need to adjust to ‘new normal’ in rates
Mortgage rates were elevated after data last week showed inflation and payroll numbers came in stronger than expected, which fueled concerns about the timing of the Fed’s plans to issue rate cuts this year.
Federal Reserve officials expect three interest rate cuts this year, which should help ease pressure on overall borrowing costs when they come to pass. However, when those rate cuts will happen remains to be seen.
“There is some uncertainty in the housing market as we head into spring,” said Sturtevant. “The Federal Reserve likely will put off rate cuts until the summer, which suggests that mortgage rates will not come down much in the first half of the year. Buyers and sellers seem to be adjusting to the ‘new normal’ of mortgage rates above 6.5%.”
Still, there’s some hope that buyers will see mortgage rates start to ease sooner rather than later.
“As we enter the spring homebuying season, we still anticipate rates will decrease in the coming months,” said MBA president and CEO Bob Broeksmit.
Gabriella Cruz-Martinez is a personal finance and housing reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @__gabriellacruz.
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The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held its short-term policy interest rate steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.5% for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday.
“The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” the FOMC said in a statement. “In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.”
Earlier in March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during his semiannual monetary policy testimony that the central bank needed “just a bit more evidence” that inflation was on the right path before implementing the first rate cut since March 2020. On multiple occasions Wednesday, Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to a target of 2% inflation.
Fed officials also unveiled their latest interest rate and economic projections for the first time since December. At that time, most officials agreed that inflation would fall from just above 3% at the end of 2023 to just below 2.5% at the end of 2024. Most penciled out three quarter-point rate cuts this year.
But in the interval between the December and March meetings, inflation in both January and February came in higher than expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate continued to stay below 4%, companies still exhibited expanding payrolls, and workers boasted growth in real wages.
While the projections for the policy rate at the end of 2024 did not change, policymakers expect fewer rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 than they anticipated in December. In other words, interest rates are poised to stay higher for longer.
Fed officials also expect inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, to end the year at 2.6% instead of 2.4%, a modestly higher level than they anticipated in December. As of Wednesday afternoon, investors were placing the probability of a cut by June at 74.4%, according to the CME Group. The Fed meets one more time before that, on April 30 and May 1.
What does a cautious approach mean for housing?
Mortgage rates have trended upward since the beginning of the year. As of March 18, mortgage rates were 30 to 40 basis points higher than on Jan. 1, 2024, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
Experts still expect mortgage rates to come down in 2024 but not as fast as anticipated, hampering homebuyers’ prospects of improved affordability. New construction will continue to be a necessary source of housing options for buyers as the supply of existing homes remains limited.
According to Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale, assumable mortgages — which allow a buyer to take over a seller’s existing mortgage terms — could become a more viable alternative.
“A small share of the total outstanding mortgage pool is eligible for assumption, and the share of sellers who are aware of this feature and advertising it on their listings is even smaller, but in some of the markets where sellers are most likely to advertise this feature, Realtor.com research suggests that buyers can find mortgage assumption advertised on 1-3% of active homes for sale,” Hale said in a statement.
Amid a housing shortage and an affordability crisis, US homebuilding heated up in February as builders anticipate demand for new homes to stay strong.
One sure way to improve affordability is to increase the availability of apartments to rent and homes to buy. In areas of the country where there has been robust homebuilding, rents and home price increases have been more moderate.
The pace of new housing starts soared by 10.7% in February from the month before, after slumping in January, according to data released Thursday by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.521 million units last month, beating analysts’ estimates of 1.425 million. The pace rebounded from January’s revised pace of 1.374 million and was 5.9% above the 1.436 million pace a year ago.
Meanwhile, the pace of new building permits was up 1.9% from January, which was up 2.4% from a year ago.
Homebuyers look to new construction for much-needed inventory
While the number of existing homes on the market remains historically low, new construction has provided a critical alternative for homebuyers.
Mortgage applications for a newly constructed home were up a whopping 15.7% in February from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association; and up by 1% from January. The average loan size jumped to its highest level since last March at almost $406,000, but it was still below the record high of more than $436,000 in April 2022.
“It is possible that we could see more wiggle room on pricing in the coming months, as the inventory of existing homes begins to expand,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright Multiple Listing Service, in a statement.
Prospective homebuyers who are looking at new construction are still finding some builders offering concessions, upgrades, or favorable financing terms, she said.
But, according to the NAHB, fewer builders are offering price cuts.
Homebuilders are preparing for when rates are lower
The much lower mortgage rates that many homebuyers expected have yet to materialize, but builders want to be ready for when that does happen.
Mortgage rates have come down from their highest levels of last year — 7.79% in October — and are now about a full percentage point below that, at 6.74%.
“Lower mortgage rates are likely to bring buyers to the market in larger numbers, and builders are ramping up supply to meet this demand,” said Kelly Mangold of RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, in a statement.
While existing home inventory has ticked up lately, as is typical this time of year, there is still a historically low number of homes on the market as owners see the gap between their ultra-low rate and prevailing rates as still too wide.
That creates an opportunity for homebuilders who can provide inventory.
“Homebuilders continue to be bullish about the spring market as homeowners are still reluctant to list their homes for sale and new homes account for an outsized share of the active inventory,” said Sturtevant.
Homebuilder confidence improved this month even as mortgage rates climbed, according to a survey from the National Association of Home Builders released Monday.
The lack of existing inventory that continues to push buyers toward new home construction led homebuilder sentiment index to the highest level since July and marked the fourth consecutive monthly gain for the index.
Addressing the housing shortage
Housing affordability amid high inflation and elevated interest rates remains a hot-button issue for the White House as well as the Federal Reserve.
President Joe Biden is set to address the housing shortage Tuesday in a speech from Las Vegas, where the cost of rent has increased 30% from before the pandemic and the cost to buy a home has risen by over 40% since then.
Biden is expected to call on Congress to pass legislation that he says could result in the building and renovation of more than 2 million homes to close the housing supply gap and lower housing costs.
Housing experts agree there are not enough homes available to rent or own compared to the demand. But the size of that gap ranges from a shortfall of 1.5 million units (according to National Association of Home Builders) to 5.5 million units (according to the National Association of Realtors) or as many as 7 million (according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition and Realtor.com), depending on who is calculating it and what assumptions about housing are being made.
LOS ANGELES — More homeowners eager to sell their home are lowering their initial asking price in a bid to entice prospective buyers as the spring homebuying season gets going.
Some 14.6% of U.S. homes listed for sale last month had their price lowered, according to Realtor.com. That’s up from 13.2% a year earlier, the first annual increase since May. In January, the percentage of homes on the market with price reductions was 14.7%.
The share of home listings that have had their price lowered is running slightly higher than the monthly average on data going back to January 2017.
That trend bodes well for prospective homebuyers navigating a housing market that remains unaffordable for many Americans. A chronically low supply of homes for sale has kept pushing home prices higher overall even as U.S. home sales slumped the past two years.
“Sellers are cutting prices, but it just means we’re seeing smaller price gains than we would otherwise have seen,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.
The pickup in the share of home listings with price cuts is a sign the housing market is shifting back toward a more balanced dynamic between buyers and sellers. Rock-bottom mortgage rates in the first two years of the pandemic armed homebuyers with more purchasing power, which fueled bidding wars, driving the median sale price for previously occupied U.S. homes 42% higher from 2019 through 2022.
“Essentially, the price reductions suggest far more normalcy in the housing market than we’ve seen over the last couple of years,” Hale said.
The share of properties that had their listing price lowered peaked in October 2018 at 21.7%. It got nearly as high as that — 21.5% — in October 2022.
Last year, the percentage of home listings that had their asking price lowered jumped to 18.9% in October, as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage surged to a 23-year high of 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.
Mortgage rates eased in December amid expectations that inflation has cooled enough for the Federal Reserve begin cutting its key short term rate as soon as this spring. Those expectations were dampened following stronger-than-expected reports on inflation and the economy this year, which led to a rise in mortgage rates through most of February.
That’s put pressure on sellers to scale back their asking price to “meet buyers where they are,” Hale said.
That pressure could ease if, as many economists expect, mortgage rates decline this year.