What is Altcoin Season? Why Does It Happen?

2021 has been a heady time for cryptocurrency. Led by Bitcoin, the whole sector has seen huge rises in prices and tremendous volatility along the way. There’s been a massive development of decentralized finance (DeFi) technology applications and cryptocurrency ecosystems that allow people to trade and lend their tokens without the support of a traditional financial institution.

With all this activity and volatility, some have wondered what it will mean for the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Will Bitcoin continue to dominate and soar? Will other coins rise up to take the top spot in the field? Insiders have already coined a phrase for the possibility of Bitcoin stalling out and other cryptocurrency products and token rising in value. It’s known as “altcoin season.”

Altcoins: What Are They?

Basically, altcoins are cryptocurrencies that aren’t Bitcoin or Ethereum. In fact, Bitcoin is so dominant in the field that even Ethereum is sometimes referred to as an altcoin.

Bitcoin is the big kahuna of cryptocurrency, the one that started it all, the one that’s traded the most every day, the one that’s gotten the most backing from mainstream financial institutions, and, of course, the one that’s worth the most ($885,497,080,149 as of December 17, 2021). Ethereum is similar: a long track record, a variety of projects and systems built on top of it, substantial trading volume, and a high overall value (worth $459,827,737,310 as of December 17, 2021).

Altcoins are just about everything else. Sometimes they’re tokens built on top of Ethereum for DeFi projects, sometimes they’re offered in an “initial coin offering” for use with a specific product, sometimes they’re spun up by developers because they think there’s something wrong or missing in the current crypto ecosystem. This could be variants or forks of mainstream coins (like Litecoin (LTC) or Bitcoin Cash), or a whole new type of coin with a specific usage (stablecoins like Tether or USDC), or tokens for use in a specific ecosystem, like XRP for use in Ripple.

When Does “Altcoin Season” Happen?

Altcoin season happens when there’s steady outperformance of tokens and coins that aren’t Bitcoin.

There’s no promise or guarantee that every runup in Bitcoin will turn into a downturn later or that altcoins will start outperforming the original crypto. In fact, it’s not uncommon for all cryptos to rise together, as excitement about the sector grows and new money goes into all sorts of coins looking for profits.

There are a number of theories for why altcoin season could potentially happen. One popular one is that Bitcoin investors will pocket their gains from a surging Bitcoin, maybe by selling some of it, and then move those gains into other cryptocurrencies.

They might do this for one of two reasons:

1.    To realize gains. This might happen if the value of Bitcoin owned by an investor has gone up relative to the dollar or other fiat currencies or cryptocurrencies, and they want to spend some of those gains on things that can’t be bought with crypto itself.

2.    Expectations of future growth change. After a large runup of Bitcoin, an investor’s projected future growth or value of an asset might change compared to the price of investing. So, with inflated Bitcoin values, it’s possible that altcoins could be a better investment going forward. And if enough investors and traders make that decision, they will be.

How Do You Know If It’s Altcoin Season?

You can’t determine altcoin season just by looking at the price of altcoins or Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency in isolation.

Looking at their “market cap”, or the total value of all the circulating tokens, can be a better indicator of what’s going on with investor valuation of cryptocurrencies. This is because price isn’t just determined by investor interest or disinterest, but also by the number of outstanding coins.

How Are Altcoins Doing Relative to Bitcoin?

To tell if we are in altcoin season, we have to look at two things. The first is Bitcoin’s “dominance” vis a vis the rest of the crypto market as well as the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin.

At the time of writing in December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s dominance is 41% of the total market. Near the beginning of this year, it stood at 70%. Bitcoin’s highest dominance was 96% in late 2013, Bitcoin’s lowest dominance was early 2018, when it stood at around 33%. Its lowest this year is around 40%, which it hit in May of this year.

Bitcoin has fallen in value by almost 40%, giving a chance for altcoins to gain value in comparison. But we can also compare Bitcoin market value to that of altcoins:

•   Bitcoin’s market value has grown from $176 billion to $885 billion.

•   XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple, has had its market cap grow from $9 billion to just under $38 billion.

•   Cardano (ADA), whose token is called ADA, has grown from about $3 billion to $41 billion.

•   Litecoin, a Bitcoin alternative founded in 2011 and thus one of the oldest altcoins, has grown from around $3 billion to $10 billion.

•   Ethereum (ETH), the least alt of the altcoins, the most well established of all non-Bitcoin tokens, has grown from $29 billion to $459 billion.

Whether altcoin season is happening at all — and if so, whether it will continue — still remains to be seen.

The Takeaway

Altcoin season describes a time period when altcoins steadily outperform Bitcoin. There are a few ways to try to determine altcoin season, but it remains impossible to predict. Basically, you’ll know it when you’re in it.

Interested in crypto? With SoFi Invest®, you can trade cryptocurrency online from a selection of more than two dozen coins – from Bitcoin and Ethereum to altcoins like Chainlink, Dogecoin, Solana, Litecoin, Cardano, and Enjin Coin.

Find out how to get started with SoFi Invest.

Photo credit: iStock/Prostock-Studio


SoFi Invest®
The information provided is not meant to provide investment or financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s specific financial needs, goals and risk profile. SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance. Advisory services offered through SoFi Wealth, LLC. SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA / SIPC . SoFi Invest refers to the three investment and trading platforms operated by Social Finance, Inc. and its affiliates (described below). Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of the platforms below.
1) Automated Investing—The Automated Investing platform is owned by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor (“Sofi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC, an affiliated SEC registered broker dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, (“Sofi Securities).

2) Active Investing—The Active Investing platform is owned by SoFi Securities LLC. Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.

3) Cryptocurrency is offered by SoFi Digital Assets, LLC, a FinCEN registered Money Service Business.

For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or pre-qualification for any loan product offered by SoFi Lending Corp and/or its affiliates.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Crypto: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies aren’t endorsed or guaranteed by any government, are volatile, and involve a high degree of risk. Consumer protection and securities laws don’t regulate cryptocurrencies to the same degree as traditional brokerage and investment products. Research and knowledge are essential prerequisites before engaging with any cryptocurrency. US regulators, including FINRA , the SEC , and the CFPB , have issued public advisories concerning digital asset risk. Cryptocurrency purchases should not be made with funds drawn from financial products including student loans, personal loans, mortgage refinancing, savings, retirement funds or traditional investments. Limitations apply to trading certain crypto assets and may not be available to residents of all states.
Third Party Brand Mentions: No brands or products mentioned are affiliated with SoFi, nor do they endorse or sponsor this article. Third party trademarks referenced herein are property of their respective owners.
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Source: sofi.com

What Is Fibonacci Retracement in Crypto Trading?

A retracement level is the price at which a stock or cryptocurrency tends to see a reversal in its trend. Fibonacci retracement is a popular tool in technical analysis that helps determine support and resistance levels on a price chart.

What Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels?

Fibonacci numbers are a series where each number equals the sum of the two previous numbers. The most basic series is: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377 etc.

When it comes to technical analysis, investors use Fibonacci Replacement Levels, expressed as percentages, to analyze how much of a previous move a price has retraced. The most important Fibonacci Retracement levels are: 23.6% 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%.

Some analysts refer to 61.8% as “the golden ratio,” since it equals the division of one number in the series by the number that follows it. For example: 8/13 = 0.6153, and 55/89 = 0.6179.

The other Retracement levels reflect other calculations: Dividing one number by the number three places to its right equals 23.6%. For example: 8/34 = 0.2352. Bitcoin traders often use 78.6%, which is the square root of 0.618,

Some prefer the 0.618 and 0.382 levels because these are the retracement levels analysts believe are most likely to generate a trend reversal. These levels are considered inflection points where fear and greed can alter price action. When an asset is trending upward but loses momentum, it’s possible that a pullback to the 0.618 price level could result in a bounce upward, for example.

How Does Fibonacci Retracement Work and What Does it Do?

There are several theories as to why the fibonacci retracement works. Some of these include:

•   Fibonacci price levels reflect the effects of extreme fear and greed in the market. To use this to their advantage, traders might buy when people are panicking and sell when others are getting greedy.

•   Fibonacci patterns are often observed in nature as well as in mathematics. For example: fruits and vegetables. If one would look at the center of a sunflower, spiral patterns could appear to curve left and right. Counting these spirals, the total often is a Fibonacci number. If one could divide the spirals into those pointed left and right, then two consecutive Fibonacci numbers could be obtained. Therefore, it’s thought that these patterns may be important in financial markets as well.

•   The law of numbers: If a greater percentage of people practice Fibonacci crypto trading, then the likelihood of its accuracy increases.

At its core, a Fibonacci retracement is a mathematical measurement of a particular pattern. When it comes to Fibonacci in crypto, traders try to apply these patterns to price action to predict future price movements.

Who Created Fibonacci Retracements?

While traders commonly use Fibonacci in crypto today, the number sequences pre-date the invention of cryptocurrency by many centuries. Fibonacci numbers are based on the key numbers studied by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci (or Leonardo of Pisa) in the 13th century, although Indian mathematicians had identified them previously. He was a medieval Italian mathematician famous for his “Book of the Abacus”, the first European work on Indian and Arabian mathematics, which introduced Hindu-Arabic numerals to Europe.

Formula

In an uptrend or bullish market, the formulas for calculating Fibonacci retracement and extension levels are:

UR = High price – ((High price – Low price) * percentage) in an uptrend market; where UR is uptrend retracement.

UE = High price + ((High price – Low price) * percentage) in an uptrend market; where UE is an uptrend extension.

For example: A stock price range of $10 – $20, could depict a swing low to swing high.

Uptrend Retracement (UR) = $20 – (($20 – $10) * 0.618)) = $13.82 (utilizing 0.618 retracement)

Uptrend Extension (UE) = $20 + (($20 – $10) * 0.618)) = $26.18 (utilizing 0.618 retracement)

If a stock pulls back $13.82 could be a level that the stock bounces back to reach higher levels than its swing high price, e.g. $20. In an uptrend, the general idea is to take profits on a long trade at a Fibonacci price extension Level ~ $26.18.

What Does a Fibonacci Retracement do?

Markets don’t go straight up or down. There are pauses and corrections along the way. To buy stocks in an uptrend, one would look to get the best price possible.

Some traders use Fibonacci Retracement to determine how much a stock could pull back before continuing higher. Traders can use these retracement levels to find optimal prices at which to enter a trade.

A swing high happens when a security’s price reaches a peak before a decline. A swing high forms when the highest price reached is greater than a given number of highs around it.

Swing low is the opposite of swing high. It refers to the lowest price within a timeframe, usually fewer than 20 trading periods. A swing low occurs when a lowest price is lower than any other surrounding prices in a given period of time.

Support and Resistance

Support is the price level that acts as a floor, preventing the price from being pushed lower, while resistance is the high level that the price reaches over time. Analysts often illustrate these as horizontal lines on a graph.

A support or resistance level can also represent a pivot point, or point from which prices have a tendency to reverse if they bounce (in the case of support) or retreat (in the case of resistance) from that level.

Learn more: Support and Resistance: What Is It? How To Use It for Trading

Limitations of Fibonacci Retracement

Fibonacci retracements in crypto or other markets may be slightly predictive. But over relying on them can be counterproductive for reasons such as:

•   Fibonacci retracements, like any other indicators, could be used effectively only if investors understand it completely. It could end up being risky if not used properly.

•   There are no guarantees that prices will end up at that point, and retrace as the theory indicates.

•   Fibonacci retracement sequences are often close to each other, therefore it may be tough to accurately predict future price movements.

•   Using technical analysis tools like Fibonacci retracements can give investors tunnel vision, where they only see price action through this one indicator. Assuming that any single indicator is always correct can be problematic.

A Fibonacci retracement in crypto trading could wind up being even less predictive than in other financial markets due to the extreme volatility that cryptocurrencies often experience.

Fibonacci Retracements and Bitcoin

Fibonacci retracements can also be used for trading cryptos such as Bitcoin (BTC), similarly to how they’re used in stocks. In this case, one would use the levels 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% to determine where the cryptocurrency price would reverse.

Crypto prices are very volatile, and leverage trading is common. Leverage is the use of borrowed funds to increase the trading position, beyond what would be available from the cash balance alone. Therefore, it can be important to have some reference as to when the price could reverse, to not incur major losses.

Using the Fibonacci Retracement Tool to Trade Cryptocurrencies

In order to get started with a Fibonacci Retracement Tool, a trader could find a completed trend for a crypto, say, Bitcoin, which could either be an uptrend or downtrend.

Below are some steps on how to use Fibonacci retracement tool:

1.    Determine the direction of the market. Is it an uptrend or downtrend?

2.    For an uptrend, determine the two most extreme points (bottom and top) on the Bitcoin price chart. Attach the Fibonacci retracement tool on the bottom and drag it to the right, all the way to the top.

3.    For a downtrend, the extreme points are top and bottom and the retracement tool could be dragged from the top to the bottom.

4.    For an uptrend or downtrend, one could monitor the potential support levels: 0.236, 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618.

Recommended: Crypto Technical Analysis: What It Is & How to Do One

Fibonacci Retracement Example for Bitcoin

In December 2017, Bitcoin fell from $13,112 to around $10,800, within a short timeframe. After that, it rallied up to $12k twice, but did not break above that level until 2021. That indicates a bearish pattern, as it couldn’t break above its previous high. In technical analysis it is called a double top.

On the Fibonacci tool, the $12k resistance point coincided with the 50% level of retracement. When the price could not reach this level, it started to fall again. In this scenario, traders using Fibonacci Retracement might consider this a good time to exit a long position or establish a short position. A short trade is based on the speculation that the price of Bitcoin is going to fall.

By February, 2018, the trade materialized as Bitcoin continued its downtrend falling all the way to $9,270. The short trade would have worked and traders could have realized a profit from using the crypto Fibonacci Retracement tool, although those who managed to HODL for years after that would have made even more.

FAQ

Does Fibonacci retracement work with crypto?

While the Fibonacci retracement tool is traditionally used for analyzing stocks or trading currencies in the forex market, some analysts believe it is also helpful in determining a crypto trading strategy.

How accurate is fibonacci retracement?

In crypto, Fibonacci retracement levels are often fairly accurate, although no indicator is perfect and they are best used in combination with other research. The accuracy levels increase with longer timeframes. For example, a 50% retracement on a weekly chart is a more important technical level than a 50% retracement on a five-minute chart.

What are the advantages of using fibonacci retracement?

Here are some benefits of using Fibonacci Retracement.

•   Trend prediction. With the correct setting and levels, it can often predict the price reversals of bitcoin at early levels, with a high probability.

•   Flexibility. Fibonacci Retracement works for assets of any market and any timeframe. One must note that longer time frames could result in a more accurate signal.

•   Fair assessment of market psychology. Fibonacci levels are built on both a mathematical algorithm and the psychology of the majority, which is a fair assessment of market sentiment.

The Takeaway

The Fibonacci Retracement tool can help identify hidden levels of support and resistance so that analysts can better time their trades. Analysts believe this tool is more effective when utilized with types of cryptocurrency that have higher market-capitalization, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, because they have more established trends over extended time frames.They consider it less effective on cryptocurrencies with a smaller market capitalization.

Whether you use Fibonacci Retracement or other methods to create your cryptocurrency trading strategy, a great way to get started is by opening a brokerage account on the SoFi Invest investment app. You can use it to trade more than a dozen different coins, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Cardano, and Dogecoin.

Photo credit: iStock/HAKINMHAN


SoFi Invest®
The information provided is not meant to provide investment or financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s specific financial needs, goals and risk profile. SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance. Advisory services offered through SoFi Wealth, LLC. SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA / SIPC . SoFi Invest refers to the three investment and trading platforms operated by Social Finance, Inc. and its affiliates (described below). Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of the platforms below.
1) Automated Investing—The Automated Investing platform is owned by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor (“Sofi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC, an affiliated SEC registered broker dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, (“Sofi Securities).

2) Active Investing—The Active Investing platform is owned by SoFi Securities LLC. Clearing and custody of all securities are provided by APEX Clearing Corporation.

3) Cryptocurrency is offered by SoFi Digital Assets, LLC, a FinCEN registered Money Service Business.

For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or pre-qualification for any loan product offered by SoFi Lending Corp and/or its affiliates.
Crypto: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies aren’t endorsed or guaranteed by any government, are volatile, and involve a high degree of risk. Consumer protection and securities laws don’t regulate cryptocurrencies to the same degree as traditional brokerage and investment products. Research and knowledge are essential prerequisites before engaging with any cryptocurrency. US regulators, including FINRA , the SEC , and the CFPB , have issued public advisories concerning digital asset risk. Cryptocurrency purchases should not be made with funds drawn from financial products including student loans, personal loans, mortgage refinancing, savings, retirement funds or traditional investments. Limitations apply to trading certain crypto assets and may not be available to residents of all states.
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Source: sofi.com

The Problem with Today’s Hot Real Estate Investment Market

Jessica Schmidt (not her real name) is a qualified intermediary for a large national firm specializing in 1031 exchanges for investment real estate. Lately, she has been working 10-hour days, six days a week.

Some days she takes up to 50 calls a day from real estate investors seeking to cash in on a hot real estate market without paying large sums of tax on their highly appreciated real estate investment.

It’s a seller’s market, and most real estate investors can garner a quick sale on amounts they had previously only dreamed of.

Everything’s great, right? Not so fast.

A Seller’s Market Isn’t Exactly a Dream

Jessica usually spends 10-15 minutes with a caller explaining the rules and regulations of a 1031 exchange. She often refers callers to her website for educational videos on the 45-Day Rule, the 3 Property Rule, and the 180 Day Rule. These are all essential and specific requirements for an investor to take advantage of our tax code’s ability to defer taxes upon a property sale.

She explains that the seller must open an exchange “ticket” BEFORE the sale of their investment property closes. Then the seller has up to 45 days to identify a qualified replacement property.

And that’s where the situation gets sticky.

Problems Finding Replacement Properties

“The problem with the inventory in the marketplace is that there isn’t any,” the chief economist for a large national title company was quoted as saying at a recent economic forum.

Today, more often than not, hopeful 1031 exchange investors find themselves in quite the conundrum. According to Jessica, the high-ticket sale and the tax deferral via the 1031 exchange may be the easy part, but finding a suitable replacement property seems to be the biggest obstacle and a common dilemma.

A Potential Solution – DST, or Delaware Statutory Trust

With that in mind, Jessica has been increasingly offering her clients a different option to consider instead of a 1031 exchange: a DST, or Delaware Statutory Trust.

DSTs are passive real estate investments that qualify as replacement property for 1031 exchanges. DSTs invest in multifamily apartments, medical buildings, self-storage facilities, Amazon distribution centers, industrial warehouses, hotels and other vital real estate asset classes. The investments are passive in nature and generate regular monthly income to investors and the potential and opportunity for growth.

Many DSTs are syndicated with some debt, usually about 50% loan-to-value. However, the debt to investors is considered non-recourse, which means that an investor has no personal guarantee or personal liability for such debt. This could be very helpful, Jessica explains to her clients, because they all want to receive a full tax deferral, and the rules stipulate that in an exchange, the investor must reinvest the sale proceeds AND replace any debt.

DSTs have been around since 2004 when the IRS issued Ruling 2004-86, which made DSTs qualify for replacement in a 1031 exchange.

Must Be an Accredited Investor

DSTs are for “accredited” investors only, which means that an investor must have a net worth of at least $1 million apart from their primary residence or have an income of $200,000 for a single person or $300,000 for a married couple. And DSTs are offered as SEC-registered securities and therefore are obtained from broker-dealers or registered investment advisers. The advisers perform extensive due diligence on the real estate syndications and each specific DST-sponsored property.

Jessica concludes that DSTs could be a perfect solution for many of her clients and investors, especially those getting closer to retirement and maybe not wanting to actively manage real estate assets any longer. Between the tax savings, the passive nature of the investments, and the high-quality assets that are generally part of DSTs, many of her clients’ problems could be effectively solved using this important passive investment strategy.

Although DSTs are attracting billions of dollars of investment funds, most CPAs and real estate investors are still unaware of this important and viable solution that could potentially solve so many problems for so many real estate investors.

After explaining all this so many times in calls from clients the past several months, Jessica decided to come up with the following “Letterman” style Top 5 Benefits of DSTs for her clients:

5 Top Benefits of DSTs in a 1031 Exchange

1. Potential Better Overall Returns and Cash Flows

It depends upon the investor. Still, some investors find DSTs could offer a better risk-return profile than a property they might manage themselves.

2. Tax Planning and Preserved Step-Up in Basis

DSTs offer the same tax advantages of real estate that an investor would own and manage themselves. Depreciation and amortization are passed along to DST investors by their proportionate share. DSTs can be exchanged again in the future into another DST via a 1031 exchange.

3. Freedom

Passive investing allows older real estate owners the time and freedom to travel, pursue other endeavors, spend more time with family, and/or move to a location removed from their current real estate assets.

4.  As a Backup Strategy

In a competitive market, an investor may not be able to find a suitable replacement property for their 1031 exchange. DSTs might be a good backup option and could be named/identified in an exchange if only for that reason.

5. Capture Equity in a Hot Market

When markets are at all-time highs, investors may want to take their gains off the table and reinvest using the leverage inside a DST offering.

DST investments come with a risk common to real estate investing and are offered to accredited investors only and by private placement memorandum only. Therefore, a prudent investor would be best served by evaluating all details of each specific offering and the track record of the sponsor firm before investing in a DST offering.

Chief Investment Strategist, Provident Wealth Advisors

Daniel Goodwin is the Chief Investment Strategist and founder of Provident Wealth Advisors, Goodwin Financial Group and Provident1031.com, a division of Provident Wealth. Daniel holds a series 65 Securities license as well as a Texas Insurance license. Daniel is an Investment Advisor Representative and a fiduciary for the firms’ clients. Daniel has served families and small-business owners in his community for over 25 years.

Source: kiplinger.com

5 Best Esports Stocks to Buy in 2022

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Dig Deeper

Additional Resources

According to Grand View Research, the esports and gaming industry is growing rapidly. By the year 2027, it will be worth around $6.82 billion after enjoying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 24%. 

Many esports and gaming enthusiasts who are looking for ways to exploit the stock market for financial freedom are starting to make investments. These investors know which companies in the space are the top dogs. The fact that most people enjoy video games makes research far less daunting when investing in esports than in other, less sexy industries like utilities. 

But with so many esports and gaming companies out there to choose from, how do you choose the best companies in the space to invest in? Here are some top stocks to consider.

Best Esports Stocks to Buy in 2022

The esports and gaming industry is booming, with much of the growth being a side effect from the recent pandemic. When COVID-19 took hold around the world, traditional sports halted, and consumers were looking for things to do while under lockdown orders. 

During this time, esports viewership grew rapidly. According to Statista, the growth in gaming interest is likely to continue. 

During the pandemic, those who were into video games had nothing better to do, and many who wouldn’t have considered playing them in the past found themselves picking up the controls and immersing themselves in the gaming ecosystem. 

Now, with a whole new wave of consumers in gaming and a growing esports audience, it’s time for the big players in the industry to capitalize. 

What stocks give you the biggest opportunities in the industry? Below you’ll find my top five picks, all of which are great options to consider.

1. Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)

You Can’t Talk About Gaming Without Mentioning Activision Blizzard

  • Market Cap: Activision Blizzard is one of the largest gaming companies in the world, trading with a market cap of more than $54.5 billion. 
  • Earnings History: The company has a strong history of beating analyst expectations in terms of earnings, which it has done for the past four consecutive quarters. All told, the company has produced an average positive earnings surprise of over 9%. 
  • Dividend Yield: The current dividend yield on the stock is 0.67%. Over the past five years, the dividend yield on the stock has ranged from 0% to 0.88%, averaging 0.57%. 

Many who follow the esports and gaming industry closely will be surprised to see Activision Blizzard on this list, considering the wave of blues that has hit the company and the stock. To address the elephant in the room, the stock has recently seen a dramatic decline as a result of delays in the launches of Overwatch 2 and Diablo IV, leading analysts to downgrade the stock. 

On top of the delays, the company has been dealing with a PR nightmare after an employee walkout resulting from management’s tone-deaf response to allegations of sexual discrimination and harassment. Additionally, co-head Jen Oneal stepped down after a short run in the leadership role that began in August 2021. 

Nonetheless, there’s a strong probability that a significant undervaluation in the stock exists. 

The company is the owner of several esports leagues, hosting several esports events per year. Keep in mind, we’re talking about the company behind Call of Duty and Overwatch, two of the most popular video games ever made and the center of some of the most popular esports tournaments in the space.  

Although delays and discrimination are concerning, the stock has been thoroughly hammered, falling more than 32% from its highs in February. 

Keep in mind that these declines have happened even in the face of gains in revenue and earnings, and consistent earnings beats quarter after quarter. 

The bottom line is that even though the company is shrouded in bad press at the moment, general consumers and esports teams alike consider the company’s games to be legendary. 

Moreover, the biggest declines were seen shortly after the company announced delays in the launches of Overwatch 2 and Diablo IV. However, delays in game launches have become more commonplace these days, as the world’s leading producers of video games have begun focusing more on launching polished games free of glitches rather than rushing to market and patching bugs later. 

All told, there’s no question that Activision Blizzard will bounce back. The only real question is when it will happen. When it does, those who own the stock will be grinning from ear to ear. 


2. Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA)

Leader in Sports Gaming With Massive Franchises 

  • Market Cap: EA is another of the world’s largest esports and gaming companies, trading with a market cap of nearly $40 billion.  
  • Earnings History: EA has produced stellar earnings over the past four consecutive quarters, beating analyst expectations each step of the way. Over the past year, the average quarterly earnings surprise has been 18.7%. 
  • Dividend Yield: Like many others in the gaming and esports space, Electronic Arts currently pays no dividend. 

While Electronic Arts had its ups and downs throughout 2021, the stock has remained relatively flat, gaining less than 2% cumulatively. However, this is yet another company that many believe to be undervalued. 

Electronic Arts, better known as EA, isn’t just any game developer. It’s the developer that has signed into partnerships with the National Football League (NFL), Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), and several other massive sports franchises to develop a long line of games like Madden NFL and FIFA. The company is also the publisher behind non-sports-related hits like The Sims and Apex Legends. 

In the world of competitive gaming, there are few in the esports industry that have garnered nearly as much attention as EA. Gamers from all over the world dream of competing for six-figure prizes at some of the gaming industry’s most popular tournaments hosted by the company. 

If EA’s past is any indication, there will be plenty for investors to look forward to in the future. 

One of the biggest draws for investors has to do with the company’s coming game releases. Not only have EA’s sports-related titles done incredibly well, in November 2021 the company launched Battlefield 2042, another game in its popular Battlefield franchise. Many experts expect this to be the best-selling title from the franchise to date, setting the stage for strong Q4 revenues, as the game is likely atop many holiday shopping lists. 

All told, EA is a force to be reckoned with in the gaming industry, and thanks to a lackluster year of performance in the stock in 2021, a clear undervaluation is being born, setting the stage for a strong growth opportunity. 


3. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)

Yes, Amazon is in Gaming Too

  • Market Cap: Amazon is one of the largest companies in the world, currently trading with a market cap of nearly $1.8 trillion. 
  • Earnings History: Historically, the company has smashed earnings expectations, beating analyst projections in the past three out of four consecutive quarters. Even with a painful 32.75% miss in the most recent quarter, the average quarterly earnings surprise over the past year has clocked in at 38.2%. 
  • Dividend Yield: Throughout its history, Amazon hasn’t been a dividend-payer. Instead, it piles its profits back into the company in an effort to expand, and with the company being one of the largest in the world, those efforts have definitely been fruitful. 

You may be surprised to see Amazon on a list of the top gaming and esports companies, but it’s important to keep in mind that the company isn’t just an e-commerce powerhouse. It has its fingers in various areas of the tech industry as a digital conglomerate. 

The company isn’t a game publisher, although it does sell video games on its e-commerce platform. Nonetheless, the company is a key player in the gaming market even beyond its role in the retail distribution of video games.

Amazon acquired Twitch, one of the largest game-streaming platforms in the world, in August 2014. 

Twitch is a lot like YouTube. However, the big difference between the two is that while YouTube provides various types of streaming content, Twitch is a platform that focuses on streaming gameplay, giving players a way to show off their skills and esports teams a great venue for connecting with their audiences. This makes Twitch a top-pick among esports enthusiasts in terms of digital entertainment. 

However, when you purchase shares of this stock, you’re not just purchasing exposure to Twitch. You’re purchasing exposure to Amazon.com’s entire ecosystem of opportunities and enjoying the stability that comes along with investing in one of the world’s largest companies. 

At the end of the day, Amazon has grown from nothing to a dominant player in several high-value markets over the years and, by all accounts, that growth is far from over. 


4. Huya Inc. (NYSE: HUYA)

An Underdog That Could Become a Massive Winner 

  • Market Cap: Huya is the smallest company on this list by market cap, trading at an enterprise value of around $2.67 billion, and just making its way onto the large-cap playing field.  
  • Earnings History: As a smaller, newer company, Huya’s earnings have been interesting to follow. During a couple of the past four quarters, analysts didn’t even provide expectations. In the most recent quarter, analysts didn’t even expect that the company would produce a penny of profit, but it surprised investors by reporting earnings of $0.34 per share. 
  • Dividend Yield: Huya has not yet declared a dividend. 

Of all companies on this list, Huya is definitely the smallest and one of the riskiest bets. However, many argue that the stock is significantly undervalued at current levels, and I happen to agree. 

Huya was one of the pioneers in the game streaming industry in China and has quickly grown to become the largest game streaming platform in the region. As a result, many have compared it to Twitch, calling it the Twitch of China. 

As a game streaming service, the company plays an integral role in the esports industry in the region, connecting fans with teams and setting the stage for the next wave of Chinese esports stars. 

While what the company is doing from an operational perspective has been impressive, the idea behind the investment is more of a political bet than one aimed at the company’s operations. 

Over the past year, the Chinese government has been flexing its muscles, enacting a wide range of laws that have hampered businesses in several sectors, including gaming. As a result, investment interest in companies in the region have faded amongst fears that new laws may impact corporate earnings capabilities. 

Unfortunately, the selloff has been significant for some stocks, and Huya is one of those stocks. In the past year, the stock has given up more than 50% of its value, with no real negative catalyst to speak of. At the same time, the stock had no real reaction to the recent and dramatic earnings beat announced by the company. 

Over time, political fears in the region are likely to subside, and when this happens, the hardest-hit companies in the recent Chinese stock selloff will look like heavily discounted gold nuggets. I believe Huya falls into this class of stock. 


5. Take-Two Interactive Holdings, Inc. (TTWO)

A Growing Company with Significant Upside

  • Market Cap: Take-Two Interactive may not be the largest company on this list, but its market cap of more than $20 billion is nothing to shake a stick at.  
  • Earnings History: The company isn’t just known for beating earnings expectations, it’s known for smashing them. Over the past year, the average earnings surprise produced by the company was over 100%. 
  • Dividend Yield: Like many in the tech industry, TTWO does not pay dividends. 

Take-Two Interactive Holdings is a game developer that has had some pretty significant hits in the past. Its portfolio of companies includes game publishers like Rockstar Games, 2k, and Firaxis Games. Companies under its umbrella are the developers behind wildly popular franchises like Grand Theft Auto, BioShock, Borderlands, and Civilization, plus a wide range of other games that capture consumer attention and imagination like nothing else. 

Beyond its activities as a game developer, Take-Two is also a major player in the esports industry. The company currently owns a 50% stake in the NBA 2K League, one of the most popular esports leagues in the world. 

Unfortunately, however, 2021 wasn’t a great year for the stock. While the company smashed expectations in all earnings releases all year, the investing community seems to have shunned the stock, leading to declines of 12%. 

Nonetheless, many argue that the declines are an opportunity. The company has produced stellar revenue and earnings all year, and experts suggest more growth is on the horizon with positive guidance. 

Many investors, like Warren Buffett, have made massive amounts of money buying stocks when companies were down on their luck or the stocks were simply undervalued. What we’re seeing from Take-Two Interactive stock suggests it might be one of these opportunities. 


Consider Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

If you’re not interested in doing the research required to choose individual stocks — or simply don’t have the time or don’t know how — don’t worry. There’s another way to gain exposure to solid picks in the esports industry. 

One of the best ways is to buy into a themed exchange-traded fund (ETF) that’s centered around esports. A couple funds to look into in this category include the VanEck Video Gaming and eSports ETF (ESPO) and the Global X Video Games & Esports ETF (HERO). 

ETFs pool money from a large number of investors and use those funds to buy shares in esports companies. As the companies grow or pay dividends, the profits are enjoyed by all shareholders of the fund. 


Final Word

The esports industry is an exciting one. Whether you’re a gamer or esports enthusiast, or you don’t play games at all, it can be an incredibly lucrative investment opportunity. 

However, as is the case when investing in any sector, it’s important to do your research before risking your hard-earned money. After all, each company is unique, offering investors a different mix of opportunity and risks. 

Fortunately many people find researching gaming stocks to be fun. After all, you’ll have the opportunity to learn about the companies behind the games you play, find out about upcoming titles, and potentially earn a return for doing so. 

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Joshua Rodriguez has worked in the finance and investing industry for more than a decade. In 2012, he decided he was ready to break free from the 9 to 5 rat race. By 2013, he became his own boss and hasn’t looked back since. Today, Joshua enjoys sharing his experience and expertise with up and comers to help enrich the financial lives of the masses rather than fuel the ongoing economic divide. When he’s not writing, helping up and comers in the freelance industry, and making his own investments and wise financial decisions, Joshua enjoys spending time with his wife, son, daughter, and eight large breed dogs. See what Joshua is up to by following his Twitter or contact him through his website, CNA Finance.

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Here’s How The Saver’s Credit Can Lower Your Tax Bill by $2,000

You might be eligible for 50%, 20% or 10% of the maximum contribution amount.
On the scale of great tax breaks, tax credits are the best. While deductions merely lower your taxable income, a tax credit reduces your actual tax bill dollar-for-dollar.
To be eligible for the Saver’s Credit, you must:
Seriously. Check this out.

What Is the Saver’s Credit?

Next, make your deposit.
Let’s say you do your taxes and discover you owe ,000. If you paid ,000 out of your paycheck to your retirement accounts over the course of the year and received a 0 Saver’s Credit, your tax bill would shrink to 0.
If you’re a low- or middle-income worker, you can claim the Saver’s Credit — also known as the retirement savings contributions credit — by adding money to a 401(k) or individual retirement account (IRA).
The Internal Revenue Service sets maximum adjusted gross income caps for the retirement savings contribution credit each year.
The IRS actually gives taxpayers until April 15, 2022, to make contributions to individual retirement accounts and include those investments on their 2021 taxes. Pretty cool, huh?
Not only do a lot of people forget about this credit, many low-income workers miss out on the sweet tax benefits of saving for retirement because they worry doing so will strain their tight budgets.

How Do You Qualify for the Saver’s Credit?

First, you’ll need to open a retirement account if you don’t have one already. You can open one with any brokerage firm or robo-advisor. Or, you can start contributing money to your workplace 401(k).
Your income determines the percentage of your retirement savings that will be credited to your tax bill.

  • Be 18 years or older and file a tax return.
  • Not claimed as a dependent on someone else’s tax return.
  • Not be a full-time student. (However, you’re still eligible for the Saver’s Credit if you’re enrolled in an online-only school or participating in on-the-job training).
  • Save some money in a retirement account, like an employer-sponsored 401(k).

It’s important to note that this government tax benefit is not a deduction, but a credit.
Here’s what eligible taxpayers need to do to take advantage of the Saver’s Credit.
How much the Saver’s Credit is worth depends on how much you contribute to your retirement account, your filing status and your AGI.

  • $66,000 for married filing jointly.
  • $49,500 for head of household.
  • $33,000 for a single filer or any other filing status.
Pro Tip
The maximum amount of the Saver’s Credit cannot exceed ,000 for single filers or ,000 for joint filers in 2022.

How Much Is the Saver’s Tax Credit Worth?

It’s called the Saver’s Credit, and it’s one of the most valuable tax credits available. But it’s also one of the most overlooked.

Pro Tip
Lastly, you need to file Form 8880: Credit for Qualified Retirement Savings Contributions with the IRS. If you’re using online tax software, like TurboTax, then it’s even easier to file this form with your tax return.

Finally, you must contribute new money to a retirement plan: Rollover contributions from an existing account — like a 401(k) rollover into an IRA — don’t count.
For example, a single filer earning ,000 who invests ,000 in a Roth IRA would receive a maximum credit for 50% of their contribution, or ,000.
One drawback about the Saver’s Credit is it’s nonrefundable. That means the tax credit can be used to offset income-tax liability but not as a refund. In other words if you owe no taxes but qualify for the Saver’s Credit, Uncle Sam won’t cut you a check. Bummer.

Keep reading to learn who is eligible for the Saver’s Credit and how it works.

Filing status 50% of contribution 20% of contribution 10% of contribution
Single Filers, Married Filing Separately, or Qualifying Widow(er) AGI of $19,750 or below AGI of $19,751 – $21,500 AGI of $21,501 – $33,000
Married Filing Jointly AGI of $39,500 or below AGI of $39,501 – $43,000 AGI of $43,001 – $66,000
Head of Household AGI of $29,625 or below AGI of $29,626 – $32,250 AGI of $32,251 – $49,500

When you file your 2022 taxes for the 2021 tax year, your adjusted gross income (AGI) must fall below the following thresholds to qualify for the Saver’s Credit:
If you earn too much to qualify for the Saver’s Credit, you can still receive a tax deduction by contributing to a traditional IRA.
It’s worth checking to see if you qualify for the Saver’s Credit, especially if you or your spouse were unemployed or experienced a reduction of income in 2021.

How Do I Claim the Saver’s Credit?

As you can see, people with the lowest income benefit most from the Saver’s Tax Credit.
Rachel Christian is a Certified Educator in Personal Finance and a senior writer for The Penny Hoarder.
But a single filer earning ,000 who contributed ,000 to a Roth IRA would receive a credit of just 10% of the amount they invested, or 0.

  • Traditional or Roth IRA
  • Traditional or Roth 401(k)
  • SIMPLE IRA
  • SEP IRA
  • ABLE account (if you’re the designated beneficiary)
  • 403(b) plan
  • 457(b) plan
  • A federal Thrift Savings Plan

Ready to stop worrying about money?
First, you’ll need to meet some basic requirements.
Source: thepennyhoarder.com

Other Information About the Saver’s Tax Credit

The Saver’s Credit is worth up to ,000 for single filers, or ,000 for married couples filing jointly.
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It’s also worth noting that the Saver’s Credit can be claimed in addition to any tax deduction you receive by making qualified retirement savings contributions.
Keep in mind that the percentage of your retirement contribution you can receive as a credit decreases as your income increases.
The Saver’s Credit is a way to put money back in your pocket when you save for retirement.
Saver’s Credit Rate for 2022
So if you contribute to a traditional IRA or traditional 401(k), you could receive double tax savings: A reduction in your taxable income equal to the amount you kicked into your retirement account plus the Saver’s Credit (if you qualify). Believe it or not, the government will pay you to save. <!–

–>




Depending on your adjusted gross income and tax filing status, you can claim the credit for 50%, 20% or 10% of the first ,000 you contribute to a retirement account within a tax year.

Tax Loss Carryforward

A tax loss carryforward is a special tax rule that allows capital losses to be carried over from one year to another. In other words, capital losses realized in the current tax year can also be used to offset gains or profits in a future tax year.

Investors can use a capital loss carryforward to minimize their tax liability when reporting capital gains from investments. Business owners can also take advantage of loss carryforward rules when deducting losses each year.

Knowing how this tax provision works, and when it can be applied, is important from an investment tax-savings perspective.

What Is Tax Loss Carryforward?

Tax loss carryforward is the process of carrying forward capital losses into future tax years. A capital loss occurs when you sell an asset for less than your adjusted basis. Capital losses are the opposite of capital gains, which are realized when you sell an asset for more than your adjusted basis.

Adjusted basis simply means the cost of an asset, adjusted for various events (i.e. increases or decreases in value) through the course of ownership. Whether a capital gain or capital loss is short-term or long-term depends on how long you owned it before selling. Short-term capital losses and gains apply when an asset is held for one year or less, while long-term capital gains and losses are associated with assets held for longer than one year.

The Internal Revenue Service allows certain capital losses, including losses associated with personal or business investments, to be deducted from taxable income. There are limits on the amount that can be deducted each year, however, which depend on the type of losses that are being reported.

In order to allow taxpayers to claim the full capital loss deduction they’re entitled to, the IRS makes it possible to carry tax losses forward into future years.

Recommended: What to Know about Paying Taxes on Stocks

How Tax Loss Carryforwards Work

In general terms, a tax loss carryforward works by allowing you to report losses realized on assets in one tax year on a future year’s tax return. IRS loss carryforward rules apply to both personal and business assets. The main types of carryforwards allowed by the Internal Revenue Code are capital loss carryforwards and net operating loss carryforwards.

Capital Loss Carryforward

IRS rules allow investors to “harvest” tax losses, meaning they use capital losses to offset capital gains. An investor could sell an investment at a capital loss, then deduct that loss against capital gains from other investments, assuming they don’t violate the wash sale rule.

The wash sale rule prohibits investors from buying substantially identical investments within the 30 days before or 30 days after the sale of a security for the purposes of tax-loss harvesting.

If capital losses are equal to capital gains, they would offset one another on your tax return, so there’d be nothing to carry over. For example, a $5,000 capital gain would cancel out a $5,000 capital loss and vice versa.

If capital losses exceed capital gains, you can claim the lesser of $3,000 ($1,500 if married filing separately) or your total net loss shown on line 21 of Schedule D for Form 1040. Any capital losses in excess of $3,000 could be carried forward to future tax years. The IRS allows you to carry losses forward indefinitely.

Net Operating Loss Carryforward

A net operating loss (NOL) occurs when a business has more deductions than income. Rather than posting a profit for the year, the business operates at a loss. Business owners may be able to claim a NOL deduction on their personal income taxes. Net operating loss carryforward rules work similar to capital loss carryforward rules, in that businesses can carry forward losses from one year to the next.

For losses arising in tax years after December 31, 2020, the NOL deduction is limited to 80% of the excess of the business’s taxable income, according to the IRS. To calculate net operating loss deductions for your business, you first have to omit items that could limit your loss, including:

•   Capital losses that exceed capital gains

•   Nonbusiness deductions that exceed nonbusiness income

•   Qualified business income deductions

•   The net operating loss deduction itself

These losses can be carried forward indefinitely at the federal level.

Note, however, that the rules for NOL carryforwards at the state level vary widely. Some states follow the federal rules, but others do not.

How Long Can Losses Be Carried Forward?

According to the IRS, tax loss carryforward rules allowed losses to be carried forward indefinitely. That includes both capital losses associated with the sale of investments or other assets, as well as net operating losses for a business. Prior to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, business owners were limited to a 20-year window when carrying forward net operating losses.

It’s important to keep in mind that capital loss carryforward rules don’t allow you to simply roll over losses. IRS rules state that you must use capital losses to offset capital gains in the year that they occur. You can only carry capital losses forward if they exceed your capital gains for the year. The IRS also requires you to use an apples-to-apples approach when applying capital losses against capital gains.

For example, you’d need to use short-term capital losses to offset short-term capital gains. You couldn’t use a short-term capital loss to balance out a long-term capital gain or a long-term capital loss to offset a short-term capital gain. This rule applies because short- and long-term capital gains are subject to different tax rates.

Example of Tax Loss Carryforward

Assume that you purchase 100 shares of XYZ stock at $50 each. Thirteen months after purchasing the shares, their value has doubled to $100 each so you decide to sell, collecting a capital gain of $5,000. You also hold 100 shares of ABC stock, which have decreased in value from $70 per share to $10 per share over that same time period.

Your capital losses would total $6,000 (the difference between the $7,000 you paid for the shares and the $1,000 you sold them for). You could use $5,000 of that loss to offset the $5,000 gain associated with selling your shares in the first company. Per IRS rules, you could also apply the additional $1,000 loss to reduce your ordinary income for the year.

Now, say you also have another stock that you sold at a $5,000 loss. You could apply $2,000 of that loss to offset ordinary income, then carry the remaining $3,000 forward to a future tax year, per IRS rules. All of this, of course, assumes that you don’t violate the wash sale rule when timing the sale of losing stocks.

The Takeaway

If you’re investing in a taxable brokerage account, it’s important to include tax planning as part of your strategy. Selling stocks to realize capital gains could result in a larger tax bill if you’re not deducting capital losses at the same time. With tax-loss harvesting, assuming you don’t violate the wash sale rule, it’s possible to carry forward investment losses to help reduce the tax impact of gains over time. This applies to personal as well as business gains and losses. Thus, understanding the tax loss carryforward provision may help reduce your personal as well as investment taxes.

In order to understand the true impact of gains and losses, it may help to open an investment account with SoFi Invest®. Here you can trade stocks as well as ETFs and even cryptocurrency. Even better, as a SoFi Member you have access to financial professionals who can offer complimentary guidance and answer your most pressing investing questions.

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For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or pre-qualification for any loan product offered by SoFi Lending Corp and/or its affiliates.
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Average Directional Index (ADX) Explained

The Average Directional Movement Index, or ADX, is an indicator used in technical analysis to help determine the strength of a pricing trend. The indicator was developed by Welles Wilder as part of his Directional Movement System for commodity trading. Since then it has been used for other tradeable investments such as stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and foreign currency.

The ADX can help investors understand when to buy and sell positions. Here’s a closer look at what ADX is, how to calculate it, and the role it plays in making investment decisions.

What is ADX?

ADX shows an average of price range values that indicate expansion or contraction of prices over time — typically a period of 14 days, but, in some cases it may be calculated for shorter or longer periods as well. Shorter periods may respond quicker to pricing movements but may also have more false signals. Longer periods tend to generate fewer false signals but may cause the indicator to lag the market.

The Average Directional Index is part of Wilder’s Directional Movement System, which attempts to measure the strength of pricing trends in both the positive and negative directions, by using DMI+ and DMI- indicators. The DMI+ indicates positive directional movement, and the DMI- indicates negative directional movement. ADX is calculated as the sum of the differences between DMI+ and DMI- over time. These three indicators are often charted together.

ADX Formula

Calculating the Average Directional Index on your own is a bit complex; it requires a series of calculations to be carried out in a specific order. Luckily, you probably won’t ever have to do it yourself — instead take a look at advanced chart settings for publicly available stock charts on websites like the Wall Street Journal . There is often an option to add an ADX or DMI overlay to the chart.

For those who are curious, here’s a look at the formulas required to calculate ADX:

+DI = (Smoothed +DM/ATR) X 100

-DI = (Smoothed -DM/ATR) X 100

DX= (|+DI – -DI|/|+DI + -DI|) X 100

ADX = ((Prior ADX X 13) + Current ADX))/14

Assumptions:

DM = Direction Movement

ATR = Average True Range

+DM = Current High – Previous High

-DM = Previous Low – Current Low

Smoothed +/- DM = ∑14 t=1DM – ((∑14 t=1DM)/14) + CDM

CDM = Current DM

How to Interpret ADX Results

It’s possible that prices within a given market could be moving up or down within a given range without ever developing into a trend. The ADX is used first and foremost to determine whether or not an up or down trend exists in a market at all.

According to Wilder’s calculations, when ADX is above 25, it indicates a strong trend; when ADX is below 20, that indicates there is no trend.

Generally, analysts conclude that between 20 and 25 represents a bit of a gray area in which some say that a developing trend is possible. It’s also possible that prices are simply ranging back and forth rather than trending.

For those who follow ADX, an ADX between 25 and 50 may represent a moderate strength trend. A result of 50 to 100 indicates trends that are increasingly strong.

How to Read an ADX Chart

Identifying the direction of trends is relatively easy when looking at an ADX chart. A line that’s moving in the upward direction indicates a strengthening trend, while a line moving in the downward direction indicates weakening. The steeper the slope of the line, the stronger the trend.

When ADX turns down, it may be an indicator that a trend is ending, which could be an opportunity for investors to consider whether they want to continue holding a position. If ADX has been low for a period of time and begins to rise by four or five points, it may be a bullish indicator that investors should consider buying to take advantage of a potentially burgeoning trend.

Using ADX, +DMI, and -DMI in tandem can generate crossover signals that can help signal opportunities to buy or sell. For example, the +DMI line crossing above the -DMI line is a potential signal to buy when ADX is above 20.

Investors tend to use ADX in conjunction with other technical analysis indicators such as moving averages to help them analyze price movements.

ADX can be used as a momentum indicator that can signal potential reversals in trends. For example, if ADX and market price are moving in an upward trajectory together, that can indicate that prices are strongly trending higher. However, if ADX declines but prices continue to rise, it may be an indicator that the market is losing momentum and prices will turn down soon.

ADX Comparisons

ADX is related to some other indicators. Here’s a breakdown of similarities and differences.

ADX vs DMI

Like ADX, DMI can be used as an indicator to help determine if the price of a security is trending and how strong that trend is. DMI does not take the direction of the trend into account.

DMI can be positive or negative. Positive DMI, or +DMI, is the difference between a stock’s high price today and its high yesterday. Values from the previous 14 days are then added up.

Negative DMI, of -DMI is the difference between a stock’s low from today and its low price from yesterday. A sum is then taken for these values for the previous 14 days.

ADX is calculated as the sum of the difference between positive and negative DMI over time.

ADX vs the Aroon Indicator

The Aroon Indicator is made up of two indicators, the Aroon-Up and the Aroon-Down. Aroon-up reflects the number of days since the last 25-day high, while Aroon-Down represents the number of days since the 25-day low.

The Aroon Indicator is similar in many ways to ADX. It’s used to identify the beginning of a trend or changes to trends, and determine whether a trend exists or if prices are just fluctuating within a range. It can also help investors determine the strength of a trend.

Higher Aroon values indicate a trend, while low values represent a weakening or nonexistent trend.

Pros and Cons of Using ADX

Like any indicator, the ADX has benefits and limitations. Here’s a look at some of the pros and cons:

Pros Cons
Helps identify whether a trend exists or if prices are simply fluctuating within a given range. False trading signals can occur, for example when crossovers are happening too frequently, which can result in confusion as trades quickly shift direction.
Can indicate shifts in trends to help investors make buy and sell decisions.
When used in conjunction with +DMI and -DMI, investors can examine crossover signals to make buy and sell decisions.

The Takeaway

When using technical analysis to decide when to buy and sell investments, individuals may make use of a wide range of research and analytic tools, such as ADX, DMI, the Aroon Indicator, and other trend indicators.

For investors who prefer this type of hand-on approach, a SoFi Invest® brokerage account offers active investing. For others, who may prefer a more hands-off approach, SoFi Invest offers automated investing accounts — an automatically managed portfolio based on their risk tolerance and goals.

Find out how to get started with SoFi Invest.

Photo credit: iStock/Pekic


SoFi Invest®
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Source: sofi.com

The Real Cost of Impulsive Investing

Worried man watching stock drop as he makes an investing mistake
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It seems to happen every fall. The stock market is rolling right along, hitting new highs every week or so. And then by September or October something spooks the markets.

Investors who have been ignoring economic warning signs all year suddenly start paying attention. Sometimes when the S&P 500 drops by 5% or so, they make a snap judgment to sell, ignoring the double-digit gains it’s posted so far.

They rely on CNBC to guide their next move. They spend every waking minute agonizing over whether to hang on or bail out.

Millions of people invest this way, on impulse. They worry whenever there is any sign of market turbulence and give in to their fears and then get burned.

We’ve all seen this movie and know how it ends. And who benefits the most? The huge institutional traders on Wall Street.

They profit by capitalizing on the impulsive behavior of Main Street investors. Motivated by the twin fears of “I can’t afford to lose” and “I don’t want to lose out,” these investors routinely buy high and sell low.

And Wall Street cashes in by selling high and buying low. Time after time, year after year.

The inevitable results of these David vs. Goliath trading interactions are so predictable that Wall Street has a euphemism for it: exploiting market inefficiencies. The big traders can predict with razor-sharp precision when regular investors will give in to their fears or greed.

Their analysts get access to the information they need to buy or sell shares of stock at the best price long before this same information percolates down to regular investors.

Here is how to understand and avoid self-defeating behavior.

Self-defeating behavior

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Emotions are the enemy of investing. When you’re plagued by doubt, you’re more likely to embrace certain thought patterns or superstitions that result in bad decisions. When you’re emotionally biased, you’re less willing to listen to views that could keep you from going down with the ship.

Psychologists have developed a whole field of study to identify these kinds of self-defeating thought processes: behavioral finance.

Numerous studies have shown that anxious investors often see and react to trading patterns that don’t really exist. They develop biases that aren’t easily shaken. And they fail to see the financial forest for the trees.

While hundreds of these behaviors have been researched and catalogued, there are a few that even the most experienced investors will recognize as applying to themselves at one time or another.

Loss aversion

Worried man holds up hands in a stop or halt motion
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Research has shown that investors are much more upset when their portfolio has dropped 5% in value than they are happy when it rises by 10%.

They’re more likely to hold on to a stock whose price is falling in the hope that it will bounce back. And they’re much more likely to sell a stock whose price has risen long before it’s reached its peak.

Framing

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Even though we consciously understand that a diversified portfolio helps to offset the falling price of one stock with the rising value of another, we still tend to obsess on the outsized profits or losses of individual stocks, regardless of how little overall impact one security has on our portfolio as a whole.

Anchoring

An investor panics over a market crash
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The way certain kinds of information are presented can influence our thinking. For example, when the stock market drops by 10% or more, the media has conditioned us into thinking of it as a market correction, with all of its associated doomsday fearmongering.

But that 10% is just an arbitrary numerical signpost that is no better at predicting a bear market than a 5% drop.

Availability bias

An older man scratches his head and wrinkles his nose while thinking
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People who have experienced a recent major event tend to believe that a similar event will occur when certain situations preceding the event have occurred.

A good example is the belief that rising rates of COVID-19 infections are likely to trigger a major stock selloff similar to the three-month bear market of 2020.

Conservatism bias

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When investors have a strong belief in a certain company they’ve invested in, they tend to cling to their faith even when the company hits a bad patch. The fall of Enron in the early 2000s is a textbook example.

Even when news about the company’s scandals came to light, too many investors believed Enron would emerge unscathed — and ultimately lost their entire investment.

So how do you avoid financial misbehavior?

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It’s critical to increase your financial self-awareness. Recognize the beliefs and fears that drive these behaviors and make a determined effort to think before you act.

Start by diagnosing your financial health. If you feel confident that you’re on track toward saving enough for retirement, your children’s higher education, or other goals, then you’ll be less likely to engage in behaviors that could derail your investment plan.

This can be difficult to do on your own, which is why you might want to seek out the services of a qualified, fee-only fiduciary financial planner.

This professional can help you address your fears, overcome your inertia, and conquer your biases by helping you figure out exactly where you are financially today and what you may need to get back on track. And if you hire them to manage your investment portfolio, you can sleep easier knowing that your financial future is in good hands.

Disclosure: The information you read here is always objective. However, we sometimes receive compensation when you click links within our stories.

Source: moneytalksnews.com