Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates are expected to go down in 2024, but so far this year they’ve been stubbornly elevated.
Average 30-year mortgage rates rose last week and remain a bit higher than last month’s average, according to Zillow data.
Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they may lower the federal funds rate three times this year, which should remove some upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to finally trend down. But we’ll need to see more economic data before we get a clearer picture on when the first rate cut might come.
The Fed wants to be sure that it’s successfully tackled too-high inflation before it starts lowering rates. As inflation continues slowing and the overall economy comes into better balance, officials will likely feel more comfortable cutting rates.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the first Fed cut could come in May or June. This means we could see lower mortgage rates by mid-2024 — right around when the majority of homebuyers are entering the market.
If you’re planning to buy a home this year, you may want to wait until a little later in the homebuying season to get started. Those who wait until the early fall should enjoy lower rates than those who buy in the spring.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
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Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates increased dramatically for most of 2023, though they started trending back down in the final months of the year. As the economy continues to normalize this year, rates should come down even further.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they’ll likely rise this year as mortgage rates drop.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.2% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices. But prices aren’t currently expected to increase as much as they have in recent years.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you’ll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates are nearly flat from last week, and they’ve held surprisingly steady this month even as some of the latest economic data has led investors to tweak their expectations around future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Average 30-year mortgage rates remained around 6.31% this week, down just six points from last week’s average of 6.37%, according to Zillow data.
After dropping substantially toward the end of 2023, mortgage rates are expected to go down further in 2024. But when exactly they’ll start dropping hinges on when the Fed decides to start cutting the federal funds rate.
At its last meeting, the Fed indicated it could cut rates at least three times this year. The Fed first started aggressively raising rates in 2022 to try and tackle too-high inflation. Its efforts have brought inflation down significantly, but they also put a lot of upward pressure on mortgage rates, causing them to skyrocket.
Mortgage rates have already dropped somewhat in anticipation of coming Fed cuts. But they might not drop any further until we get closer to a likely cut. Currently, investors are pricing in a 50% likelihood of the Fed cutting rates at its March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Fed has its first meeting of 2024 at the end of this month. While we most likely won’t see the Fed cut rates at this meeting, we may get some hints regarding when it might. If a rate cut in March seems likely, mortgage rates could trend down a bit. But if officials suggest we might not see a cut until the following meeting in May or later, mortgage rates will likely remain near their current levels.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.60% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This is a six-basis-point decrease from the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.76% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is an 11-basis-point drop from the previous week.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Down?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Despite the latest Consumer Price Index data coming in a bit hot according to Thursday’s report, mortgage rates have been holding steady this week. Average 30-year mortgage rates remained in a tight 6.3%-to-6.45% range, only up a little bit from the previous week.
The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers, which showed that inflation rose 3.4% year over year in December, led many to wonder if this would cause the Federal Reserve to push back its timeline for rate cuts in 2024.
But investors are currently pricing in an almost 80% likelihood that the Fed will make its first cut to the federal funds rate at its meeting in March, up from 64% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If that happens, we could see mortgage rates inch down further.
But Fed officials may also decide that they want to wait a bit longer before making any moves, in which case mortgage rates may generally stay near their current levels for at least the next few months. We’ll likely get a better idea of when to expect rate cuts at the Fed’s next meeting at the end of January.
Most experts believe mortgage rates will go down in 2024, but the timing will depend a lot on the path of inflation and when the Fed starts lowering the federal funds rate.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates increased dramatically for most of 2023, though they started trending back down in the final months of the year. As the economy continues to normalize in 2024, rates should come down even further.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they’ll likely rise this year.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 6.7% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 5.7% increase in 2023 and a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market last year, slowing homebuying demand and keeping price growth somewhat moderate. But rates are expected to drop this year, which will likely push home prices even higher. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which only exacerbates the problem.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you’ll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates are set to go down in 2024, but when and how much largely depends on inflation and when the Federal Reserve starts cutting the federal funds rate.
Last week, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.26%, though they inched up a big higher toward the end of the week. Many experts believe we could see rates end up near 6% or lower by the end of the year.
But hotter-than-expected economic data could shift that timeline. On Thursday, we’ll see the Consumer Price Index data for December. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked in 2022, but it’s still a bit above the Fed’s target rate.
The Fed has indicated it may be ready to cut rates this year, and markets have priced in a possible 25-point cut at the Fed’s meeting in March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But stubborn inflation could mean we’ll have to wait until later in the year for the Fed to cut rates, which would likely mean a longer wait for lower mortgage rates as well.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This is a single basis point increase from the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.89% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a four-basis-point drop from the previous week.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Up?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.1%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday. That was a bit of a surprise (though a welcome one) because yesterday’s inflation report would normally have pushed them higher. Read on for why markets might have reacted unexpectedly.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might fall. But these early mini-trends often switch direction or speed as the hours pass — as we saw yesterday.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.015%
7.03%
-0.07
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.28%
6.31%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.91%
6.93%
-0.065
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.09%
6.125%
-0.14
30-year fixed FHA
5.875%
6.545%
-0.3
30-year fixed VA
5.99%
6.14%
-0.085
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.31%
7.56%
-0.005
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Yesterday’s fall in mortgage rates showed markets continuing to have faith in a “soft landing,” which will occur if we continue to see falling inflation together with a resilient economy. Indeed, it suggests that faith can’t be shaken even by occasional unfriendly data.
I think a soft landing remains the most likely scenario for 2024.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 3.93% from 4.04%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $74.42 from $72.80 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices climbed to $2,065 from $2,036 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched lower to 73 from 75. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Yesterday
I suspect that Wall Street has bought the narrative of a soft landing (see above) and, for now, is prepared to stick to it through thick and thin. That’s my only real explanation for why mortgage rates fell yesterday despite an unfriendly inflation report.
True, some saw the report as less unfriendly than others. The New York Times (paywall), for example, reported it under the headline, “Price Increases Tick Higher, but Show Moderation.”
But the consumer price index (CPI) was undeniably worse than expected. And that would normally exert some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Still, let’s not give this gift horse too close a dental inspection.
Today
Producer price indexes (PPIs) are typically less important than CPIs. But they still sometimes affect mortgage rates.
Today’s PPI showed factory-gate and wholesale prices rising more slowly than expected. And that would normally be good for mortgage rates. However, as we saw yesterday, markets don’t always follow such “rules.”
Next week
Rather like this week, next week starts slowly but contains an important economic report. Things are especially quiet on Monday because bond markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. And closed bond markets mean mortgage rates shouldn’t move. (So, we shall not be publishing this daily report on Monday.)
Tuesday’s similarly dull with no economic reports scheduled for release.
However, Wednesday is potentially next week’s big day for mortgage rates, led by the retail sales report for December. But, after that, things tail off again.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Jan. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.66%, up from the previous week’s 6.62%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the last quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or evaluations.
Currently, the current average mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.30%, compared to 7.29% a week ago.
For borrowers who want to pay off their home faster, the average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.44%, up 0.09 percentage points from the previous week.
Homeowners who want to lock in a lower rate by refinancing should compare their existing mortgage rate with current market rates to make sure it’s worth the cost to refinance.
Current Mortgage Rates for January 9, 2024
30-Year Mortgage Rates
Borrowers will pay more in interest this week as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage is 7.30% compared to a rate of 7.29% a week ago.
The annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest and all of the lender fees, on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 7.19%. The APR was 7.22% last week.
If your mortgage is $100,000 and you have a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with the current rate of 7.30%, you will pay about $686 per month in principal and interest (taxes and fees not included), the Forbes Advisor mortgage calculator shows. That’s around $146,806 in total interest over the life of the loan.
15-Year Mortgage Rates
The average interest rate on a 15-year mortgage (fixed-rate) sits at 6.44%. This same time last week, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.35%.
The APR on a 15-year fixed is 6.37%. It was 6.30% this time last week.
At today’s interest rate of 6.44%, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage would cost approximately $868 per month in principal and interest per $100,000. You would pay around $56,177 in total interest over the life of the loan.
Jumbo Mortgage Rates
On a 30-year jumbo, the average interest rate is 7.20%, higher than it was at this time last week. The average rate was 7.18% at this time last week.
Borrowers with a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgage with today’s interest rate of 7.20% will pay $679 per month in principal and interest per $100,000. That means that on a $750,000 loan, the monthly principal and interest payment would be around $5,090 and you’d pay approximately $1.08 million in total interest over the life of the loan.
How Much House Can I Afford?
Buying a house is a huge purchase and can put a big dent in your savings. Before you start looking, it’s important to calculate how much house you can afford and you’re willing to spend.
Not only do you want to consider your income and debt, but you also want to factor in emergency savings and any long-term financial goals such as retirement or college.
These are some basic financial factors that go into home affordability:
Income
Debt
Debt-to-income ratio (DTI)
Down payment
Credit score
How Are Mortgage Rates Determined?
Home loan borrowers can qualify for better mortgage rates by having good or excellent credit, maintaining a low debt-to-income (DTI) ratio and pursuing loan programs that don’t charge mortgage insurance premiums or similar ongoing charges that increase the loan’s annual percentage rate (APR).
Comparing rates from different mortgage lenders is an excellent starting point. You may also compare conventional, first-time homebuyer and government-backed programs like FHA and VA loans, which have different rates and fees.
For the most part, several economic factors influence the trajectory of rates for new home loans. The recent Federal Reserve rate hikes don’t directly cause mortgage rates to rise but have indirectly caused the interest rates for many long-term loans to increase. Rates are more likely to decrease when the Fed pauses or decreases its benchmark Federal Funds Rate.
Further, the inflation rate and the general state of the economy directly impact interest rates. High inflation and a strong economy typically signal higher rates. Cooling consumer demand or inflation may help rates decrease.
What Is the Best Type of Mortgage Loan?
As you compare lenders, consider getting rate quotes for several loan programs. In addition to comparing rates and fees, these programs can have flexible down payment and credit requirements that make qualifying easier.
Conventional mortgages are likely to offer competitive rates when you have a credit score between 670 and 850, although it’s possible to qualify with a minimum score of 620. This home loan type also doesn’t require annual fees when you have at least 20% equity and waive PMI.
Several government-backed programs are better when you want to make little or no down payment:
FHA loans. Borrowers with a credit score above 580 only need to put 3.5% down and applicants with credit scores ranging from 500 to 579 are only required to make a 10% down payment with FHA loans.
VA loans. Servicemembers, veterans and qualifying spouses don’t need to make a down payment when the sales price is less than the home’s appraisal value. VA loan credit requirements vary by lender.
USDA loans. Applicants in eligible rural areas can buy or build a home with no money down using a USDA loan. Moderate-income borrowers can qualify for a 30-year fixed-rate term through the Guaranteed Loan Program. Further, buyers with a very low or low income can receive a 33-year term and payment assistance is available through the agency’s Direct Loans program. Credit requirements differ by lender.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is a good mortgage rate?
A competitive mortgage rate currently ranges from 6% to 8% for a 30-year fixed loan. Several factors impact mortgage rates, including the repayment term, loan type and borrower’s credit score.
How to get a lower mortgage interest rate?
Comparing lenders and loan programs is an excellent start. Borrowers should also strive for a good or excellent credit score between 670 and 850 and a debt-to-income ratio of 43% or less.
Further, making a minimum down payment of 20% on conventional mortgages can help you automatically waive private mortgage insurance premiums, which increases your borrowing costs. Buying discount points or lender credits can also reduce your interest rate.
How long can you lock in a mortgage rate?
Most rate locks last 30 to 60 days and your lender may not charge a fee for this initial period. However, extending the rate lock period up to 90 or 120 days is possible, depending on your lender, but additional costs may apply.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates have been falling steadily this month, and they’re down again this week.
Rates have dropped substantially over the past couple of months after 30-year mortgage rates spiked near 8% in October. Now they’re back below 7% at at their lowest since mid-June.
As long as inflation continues to slow, Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting the federal funds rate next year. This will remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates, and should allow mortgage rates to go down in 2024.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
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Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
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Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.67%, according to Freddie Mac. This is a 28-basis-point decrease from the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates are 5.95%, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a 43-basis-point decrease from the previous week and the lowest the rate has been since mid-May.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Up?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But they’ve been decreasing recently, and mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.1%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen next year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
For a third day, average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. But that’s good because it means last week’s big falls remain effectively uneroded.
First thing, it was again looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly or moderately. However, that could change as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.125%
7.14%
-0.075
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.385%
6.415%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.975%
7%
-0.045
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.12%
6.145%
-0.065
30-year fixed FHA
5.98%
6.88%
-0.095
30-year fixed VA
6.165%
6.315%
-0.13
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.425%
7.675%
-0.035
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Every day that passes makes a corrective bounce (when mortgage rates rise as markets think they’ve got carried away) less likely. And it reinforces my hope that those rates are in a downward trend that could last well into next year.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.90% from 3.92%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mostly falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices climbed to $75.14 from $73.12 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices held steady at $2,049 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — ticked down to 77 from 78. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Federal Reserve
This morning’s Wall Street Journal (paywall) observed: “After their policy meeting last week, Fed officials released projections of at least three rate cuts [in general interest rates] next year. They have since been flummoxed that investors expect even faster and deeper cuts. The result: Confusion over when and how quickly the Fed might cut as the central bank tries to bring inflation down without a painful recession.”
This could turn into a real issue that could push mortgage rates higher, probably in the new year. Wall Street has a long and inglorious record of hearing what it wants the Fed to say rather than what the Fed actually says. And we’ve seen quite recently examples of sharp rises in mortgage rates when markets’ wishful thinking collides with reality.
Still, last week’s Fed meeting did deliver genuinely good news. And, even if mortgage rates rise when investors face the cold light of dawning reality, I’m optimistic that we’ll keep at least most of the recent gains. Just be aware that the path to lower mortgage rates is unlikely to be smooth.
Today
This morning’s economic reports cover existing home sales in November and consumer confidence in December. They’re both published too late for me to assess their likely impact on markets and mortgage rates.
They could push mortgage rates a little higher or lower, but they rarely move them far or for long.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of this year. This will be the third and final estimate for this number.
The second estimate put GDP growth at 5.2%, up from 2.1% in the second quarter. MarketWatch says that market expectations for tomorrow’s figure have recently been slightly scaled down to 5.1%.
If the actual number tomorrow is lower than 5.1%, that could drag mortgage rates lower. But, if it’s higher, that could push those rates upward.
Friday
We’re due November’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. Markets might get nervous if that shows inflation rising more than expected because that could destroy the Fed’s new-found optimism.
More on what to expect from the PCE report tomorrow.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Dec. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.95%, down from the previous week’s 7.03%. Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates have been steadily dropping, and they fell even further this week. So far in December, 30-year mortgage rates have been holding steady below 7%.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November jobs report, which showed that the labor market is strong but continuing to normalize.
This is good news for mortgage rates, since it means that the Federal Reserve will likely keep the federal funds rate steady at its meeting next week. Markets even believe we could see some Fed rate cuts next year, which would likely cause mortgage rates to go down in 2024.
However, the effects of the Fed’s hikes over the past couple of years are still playing out, and inflation remains a bit elevated. As long as inflation and the labor market continue to cool, mortgage rates should as well. But Fed officials have said they are willing to hike rates further if necessary, which could push mortgage rates back up.
“The recent rapid decline in rates – in particular, the mortgage rate is down nearly 80 basis points since the end of October – along with continued job growth are beneficial for homebuyers; however, if labor markets remain this strong, we believe the pace of mortgage rate declines will likely not continue in the near term or may partially reverse,” Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae, said in an email.
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Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2023
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022.
Rates have increased even further this year, though they may fall soon as inflation continues to slow. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.2%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked last year at 9.1% in June.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
Home prices declined a bit on a monthly basis late last year, but we aren’t likely to see huge drops anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 6.7% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 5.7% increase in 2023 and a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates may start to drop next year, which would remove some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely keep prices from dropping.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you’ll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further in a few years, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.
“We see a little bit of pickup but not like you normally would because of seasonality,” Overfelt added.
If rates continue to drop, some LOs expect a small ‘bump’ in cash-out refis but traditional rate-term refis won’t be likely in the foreseeable future until rates are in the 5% range, LOs said in an interview with HousingWire.
“We need a continuity in rates”
Rates are quoted differently for every buyer depending on several factors – including their credit score, down payment and loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, as well as how many points they buy down upfront.
In other words, a borrower with a 700 FICO score and a 5% down payment won’t be getting a mortgage rate in the 6% range any time soon. Even a good-not-great borrower profile likely isn’t in the 6s yet without buying points or getting pricing exceptions from their lender.
Though conditions have undoubtedly improved from a dismal fall, mortgage rates today are still far higher than they were about a year ago.
HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed 30-year conforming rates at 6.998% on Monday. Compared to a year ago, it’s still well above 6.35%.
“If we compare 24 months ago, demand is way off. If I compare two months ago, demand is up. So if you look macro versus micro, you’re going to get a very different picture,” said Shane Kidwell, CEO of Dwell Mortgage. “We hit that point where we saw the worst and so it feels like we’re moving past that. How fast we move past that is up for debate.”
Loan originators are hopeful that mortgage rates will continue to decline as the spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield narrows.
Demand for approvals has definitely increased, but homebuyers are waiting to see if they will drop just as fast as they have come down recently, said Robby Oakes, managing director at CIMG Residential Mortgage.
Buyers want to know that they will be able to get a low mortgage rate when they lock in a rate. Rates are too volatile for buyers to have that confidence, Oakes noted.
After a fairly strong jobs report on Friday, rates ticked back up. All eyes will be on the CPI report and Fed meeting this week.
“When rates go up by a point, people sit on the sidelines. When rates go down by a point, people sit on the sidelines because the consumers and the sellers want to know what the market is going to be when they sell the house. We really need an orderly, return to normal rates,” said Oakes.
A potential small refi bump
With about 90% of mortgage holders having a rate below 6%, a traditional refinance boom isn’t likely in the cards for the next few years.
“For somebody to want to do a traditional refinance there has to be a financial incentive, right? They’ve got to be able to see a rate lower than where they are to do a traditional refinance,” said Kidwell.
“Today is not the best day for them to get a refinance. It’s the best day to start thinking about that process and reengaging,” Kidwell noted.
Loan originators say homeowners are reluctant to give up their low-rate first lien mortgages and lean towards tapping into their accumulated home equity through home equity line of credits (HELOCs) even if it means getting a second mortgage with a higher interest rate.
“There is a lot more inquiry for home equity line credit. People are afraid to give up that rate that has a three in front of their mortgage,” said Steinway.
ICE Mortgage Technology estimated tappable home equity – the value borrowers can borrow while still preserving at least a 20% equity stake in the home – was $10.6 trillion as of Q3 2023, nearing its 2022 peak.
“We’ve already seen there is more of a focus on home equity lines of credit and cash out refinances. Borrowers are not doing this because the rate is where they want it to be, their debt is where they don’t want it to be and so they’re consolidating debt or they’re using their equity to purchase something else or to pay something else off,” Kidwell noted.
While loan originators don’t expect a refi boom, they anticipate a small refi ‘bump’ stemming from cash-out refis.
“I think non-traditional refinances (cash-out refis), we’re probably going to see probably more of. Traditional refinances (rate-and-term refi), I don’t think I’d call it a refi boom. I think we might see a small refi bump,” said Kidwell.
Only a mere 14% of originations came from refis in Q3 and cash-out refinance loans fueled what is left of the small refinance market accounting for 92% of the third quarter activity, according to ICE Mortgage Technology.
Meanwhile, it will be a long time before the industry sees a traditional refi boom.
Most LOs don’t expect traditional rate-term refinance demand to return until the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
For 2024, roughly 75% of origination volume is expected to come from purchase loans.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to come down to 6.1% in 2024, followed by 5.5% in 2025. Fannie Mae has a more conservative outlook expecting rates to average 7.3% in 2024 before declining to 6.9% in 2025.
And for originations business to pick up, a stability of low rates as well as a supply in inventory would have to work in tandem.
“I don’t think things will pick up dramatically because there is still no inventory. Anytime you see rates drop, you can see business pick up. I think what we need is continuity of rates,” said Oakes.