Daily average mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since last November after last week’s disappointing inflation report
SEATTLE, April 18, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–(NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median U.S. home-sale price increased 5% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 14, bringing it to $380,250—just $3,095 shy of June 2022’s all-time high. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The average daily mortgage rate this week surpassed 7.4%, the highest level since last November, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and the Fed’s confirmation that interest-rate cuts will be delayed. The combination of high mortgage rates and prices have brought homebuyers’ median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775, up 11% year over year.
There are signals that buyers are out there touring homes despite rising rates. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 5% week over week, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is near its highest level in seven months. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead, said some house hunters are hoping to buy now because they’re concerned rates could rise more, and others have grown accustomed to elevated rates and pushed down their home-price budget accordingly.
“Home sales are slower than usual, but there are still people buying and selling because if not now, when?” said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas. “I’ve had a few prospective buyers touring homes for the last several years, since mortgage rates started going up, and they wish they would have bought last year because prices and rates are even higher now. My advice to them: If you can afford to and you find a house you love, buy now. There’s no guarantee that rates will come down soon.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
7.41% (April 17)
Up from 7% one month earlier; highest level since November 2023
Increased 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending April 12)
Down 10%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)
Up 8% from a month earlier (as of week ending April 14)
Down 11%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity
Up 33% from the start of the year (as of April 14)
At this time last year, it was up 23% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of April 14)
Down 17%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$380,250
4.7%
Median asking price
$413,225
6.4%
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022; all-time high
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,775 at a 6.88% mortgage rate
10.6%
All-time high
Pending sales
86,086
-2.3%
New listings
93,332
10.8%
Active listings
832,748
9.6%
Months of supply
3.3 months
+0.4 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks
42.6%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
35
-1 day
Share of homes sold above list price
29.2%
Essentially unchanged
Share of homes with a price drop
5.9%
+1.6 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio
99.2%
+0.2 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending April 14, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (24.8%)
Providence, RI (14.6%)
Nassau County, NY (14.3%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.5%)
New Brunswick, NJ (13.1%)
San Antonio, TX (-1%)
Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (25.6%)
San Francisco (11.2%)
Oakland, CA (7.1%)
Columbus, OH (6.7%)
Seattle (6.4%)
Nassau County, NY (-14.9%)
Atlanta (-13.6%)
Houston (-11.6%)
Riverside, CA (-10.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10%)
Increased in 14 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (46.6%)
Sacramento, CA (27.6%)
Phoenix (27.4%)
Jacksonville, FL (27.2%)
Dallas (22.9%)
Newark, NJ (-12.4%)
Providence, RI (-6.3%)
Milwaukee (-4.6%)
Chicago (-4.5%)
Detroit (-3.1%)
Declined in 9 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-mortgage-rates-increase
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email [email protected]. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240418348073/en/
Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. It was a modest increase by any standards but tiny by comparison with Wednesday’s big jump.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today could fall. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Our table is having technical problems. But we’re working hard to fix them.
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
30-year fixed VA
7.222%
7.262%
+0.05
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.007%
7.058%
+0.07
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.51%
6.584%
+0.09
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.127%
7.173%
+0.07
30-year fixed FHA
7.056%
7.1%
+0.09
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.64%
6.713%
+0.1
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.785%
7.888%
+0.08
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Markets have turned gloomy over the prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting general interest rates over the next few months. And that’s been pushing mortgage rates higher.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 4.50% from 4.55%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $87.42 from $85.57 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices climbed to $2,414 from $2,361 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — fell to 51 from 54 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
Two economic reports are scheduled for this morning.
The March import price index (IPI) landed at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. And that would normally be bad for mortgage rates. Markets had been expecting it to hold steady at 0.3% and it came in at 0.4%.
So, how come mortgage rates were falling first thing? Well, it’s too early to be sure. But those rates often move in the opposite direction after a sharp movement one way or the other. That’s simply markets reflecting on the change and deciding they over-reacted.
This morning’s other report isn’t due until 10 a.m. Eastern. And that means I won’t have time before my deadline to assess its likely impact on markets. They were expecting the preliminary consumer sentiment index for April to improve slightly to 79.9% from 79.4%.
A lower figure may help mortgage rates to fall while a higher one could push them upward. But this is one of those reports that rarely move those rates far unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Mortgage rates might also be affected by earnings reports later from three of the biggest U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. If they all tell a really positive story, stock market reactions could spill over into the bond market that largely determines mortgage rates.
Next week
We’ve had April’s two most important reports over the last six days. And, taken together, they were pretty bad for mortgage rates.
Next week’s reports aren’t typically as influential by a long way. But a couple of them (retail sales and industrial production) could move mortgage rates higher if they feed markets’ current pessimism over Fed rate cuts — or push them downward if they contradict it.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.88%, up from the previous week’s 6.82%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Mar. 22.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
The VA home loan: Unbeatable benefits for veterans
For many who qualify, VA home loans are some of the best mortgages available.
Verify your VA loan eligibility. Start here
Backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, VA loans are designed to help active-duty military personnel, veterans and certain other groups become homeowners at an affordable cost.
The VA loan asks for no down payment, requires no mortgage insurance, and has lenient rules about qualifying, among many other advantages.
Here’s everything you need to know about qualifying for and using a VA loan.
In this article (Skip to…)
Top 10 VA loan benefits
1. No down payment on a VA loan
Most home loan programs require you to make at least a small down payment to buy a home. The VA home loan is an exception.
Verify your VA loan eligibility. Start here
Rather than paying 5%, 10%, 20% or more of the home’s purchase price upfront in cash, with a VA loan you can finance up to 100% of the purchase price.
The VA loan is a true no-money-down home mortgage opportunity.
2. No mortgage insurance for VA loans
Typically, lenders require you to pay for mortgage insurance if you make a down payment that’s less than 20%.
This insurance — which is known as private mortgage insurance (PMI) for a conventional loan and a mortgage insurance premium (MIP) for an FHA loan — would protect the lender if you defaulted on your loan.
VA loans require neither a down payment nor mortgage insurance. That makes a VA-backed mortgage very affordable upfront and over time.
3. VA loans have a government guarantee
There’s a reason why the VA loan comes with such favorable terms.
The federal government guarantees these loans — meaning a portion of the loan amount will be repaid to the lender even if you’re unable to make monthly payments for whatever reason.
This guarantee encourages and enables private lenders to offer VA loans with exceptionally attractive terms.
4. You can shop for the best VA loan rates
VA loans are neither originated nor funded by the VA. They are not direct loans from the government. Furthermore, mortgage rates for VA loans are not set by the VA itself.
Instead, VA loans are offered by U.S. banks, savings-and-loans institutions, credit unions, and mortgage lenders — each of which sets its own VA loan rates and fees.
This means you can shop around and compare loan offers and still choose the VA loan that works best for your budget.
5. VA loans don’t allow a prepayment penalty
A VA loan won’t restrict your right to sell the property partway through your loan term.
There’s no prepayment penalty or early-exit fee no matter within what time frame you decide to sell your home.
Furthermore, there are no restrictions regarding a refinance of your VA loan.
You can refinance your existing VA loan into another VA loan via the agency’s Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan (IRRRL) program, or switch into a non-VA loan at any time.
6. VA mortgages come in many varieties
A VA loan can have a fixed rate or an adjustable rate. In addition, you can use a VA loan to buy a house, condo, new-built home, manufactured home, duplex, or other types of properties.
Or, it can be used for refinancing your existing mortgage, making repairs or improvements to your home, or making your home more energy-efficient.
The choice is yours. A VA-approved lender can help you decide.
Verify your VA loan eligibility. Start here
7. It’s easier to qualify for VA loans
Like all mortgage types, VA loans require specific documentation, an acceptable credit history, and sufficient income to make your monthly payments.
But, compared to other loan programs, VA loan guidelines tend to be more flexible. This is made possible because of the VA loan guarantee.
The Department of Veterans Affairs genuinely wants to make the loan process easier for military members, veterans, and qualifying military spouses to buy or refinance a home.
8. VA loan closing costs are lower
The VA limits the closing costs lenders can charge to VA loan applicants. This is another way that a VA loan can be more affordable than other types of loans.
Money saved on closing costs can be used for furniture, moving costs, home improvements, or anything else.
9. The VA offers funding fee flexibility
VA loans require a “funding fee,” an upfront cost based on your loan amount, your type of eligible service, your down payment size, and other factors.
Funding fees don’t need to be paid in cash, though. The VA allows the fee to be financed with the loan, so nothing is due at closing.
And, not all VA borrowers will pay it. VA funding fees are normally waived for veterans who receive VA disability compensation and for unmarried surviving spouses of veterans who died in service or as a result of a service-connected disability.
10. VA loans are assumable
Most VA loans are “assumable,” which means you can transfer your VA loan to a future home buyer if that person is also VA-eligible.
Assumable loans can be a huge benefit when you sell your home — especially in a rising mortgage rate environment.
If your home loan has today’s low rate and market rates rise in the future, the assumption features of your VA become even more valuable.
VA loan rates
The VA loan is viewed as one of the lowest-risk mortgage types available on the market.
Verify your VA loan eligibility. Start here
This safety allows banks to lend to veteran borrowers at lower interest rates.
Today’s VA loan rates*
Loan Type
Current Mortgage Rate
VA 30-year FRM
% (% APR)
Conventional 30-year FRM
% (% APR)
VA 15-year FRM
% (% APR)
Conventional 15-year FRM
% (% APR)
*Current rates provided daily by partners of the Mortgage Reports. See our loan assumptions here.
VA rates are more than 25 basis points (0.25%) lower than conventional rates on average, according to data collected by mortgage software company Ellie Mae.
Most loan programs require higher down payment and credit scores than the VA home loan. In the open market, a VA loan should carry a higher rate due to more lenient lending guidelines and higher perceived risk.
Yet the result of the Veterans Affairs efforts to keep veterans in their homes means lower risk for banks and lower borrowing costs for eligible veterans.
VA mortgage calculator
Eligibility
Am I eligible for a VA home loan?
Contrary to popular belief, VA loans are available not only to veterans, but also to other classes of military members.
Find and lock a low VA loan rate today. Start here
The list of eligible VA borrowers includes:
Active-duty service members
Members of the National Guard
Reservists
Surviving spouses of veterans
Cadets at the U.S. Military, Air Force or Coast Guard Academy
Midshipmen at the U.S. Naval Academy
Officers at the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.
A minimum term of service is typically required.
Minimum service required for a VA mortgage
VA home loans are available to active-duty service members, veterans (unless dishonorably discharged), and in some cases, surviving family members.
To be eligible, you need to meet one of these service requirements:
You’ve served 181 days of active duty during peacetime
You’ve served 90 days of active duty during wartime
You’ve served six years in the Reserves or National Guard
Your spouse was killed in the line of duty and you have not remarried
Your eligibility for the VA home loan program never expires.
Veterans who earned their VA entitlement long ago are still using their benefit to buy homes.
The VA loan Certificate of Eligibility (COE)
What is a COE?
In order to show a mortgage company you are VA-eligible, you’ll need a Certificate of Eligibility (COE). Your lender can acquire one for you online, usually in a matter of seconds.
Verify your VA home loan eligibility. Start here
How to get your COE (Certificate of Eligibility)
Getting a Certificate of Eligibility (COE) is very easy in most cases. Simply have your lender order the COE through the VA’s automated system. Any VA-approved lender can do this.
Alternatively, you can order your certificate yourself through the VA benefits portal.
If the online system is unable to issue your COE, you’ll need to provide your DD-214 form to your lender or the VA.
Does a COE mean you are guaranteed a VA loan?
No, having a Certificate of Eligibility (COE) doesn’t guarantee a VA loan approval.
Your COE shows the lender you’re eligible for a VA loan, but no one is guaranteed VA loan approval.
You must still qualify for the loan based on VA mortgage guidelines. The guarantee part of the VA loan refers to the VA’s promise to the lender of repayment if the borrower defaults.
Qualifying for a VA mortgage
VA loan eligibility vs. qualification
Being eligible for VA home loan benefits based on your military status or affiliation doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll qualify for a VA loan.
You still have to qualify for a VA mortgage based on your credit, debt, and income.
Verify your VA loan eligibility. Start here
Minimum credit score for a VA loan
The VA has established no minimum credit score for a VA mortgage.
However, many VA mortgage lenders require minimum FICO scores of 620 or higher — so apply with many lenders if your credit score might be an issue.
Even VA lenders that allow lower credit scores don’t accept subprime credit.
VA underwriting guidelines state that applicants must have paid their obligations on time for at least the most recent 12 months to be considered satisfactory credit risks.
In addition, the VA usually requires a two-year waiting period following a Chapter 7 bankruptcy or foreclosure before it will insure a loan.
Borrowers in Chapter 13 must have made at least 12 on-time payments and secure the approval of the bankruptcy court.
Verify your VA loan home buying eligibility. Start here
VA loan debt-to-income ratios
The relationship of your debts and your income is called your debt-to-income ratio, or DTI.
VA underwriters divide your monthly debts (car payments, credit cards, and other accounts, plus your proposed housing expense) by your gross (before-tax) income to come up with your debt-to-income ratio.
For instance:
If your gross income is $4,000 per month
And your total monthly debt is $1,500 (including the new mortgage, property taxes and homeowners insurance, plus other debt payments)
Then your DTI is 37.5% (1500/4000=0.375)
A DTI over 41% means the lender has to apply additional formulas to see if you qualify under residual income guidelines.
VA residual income rules
VA underwriters perform additional calculations that can affect your mortgage approval.
Factoring in your estimated monthly utilities, your estimated taxes on income, and the area of the country in which you live, the VA arrives at a figure which represents your “true” costs of living.
It then subtracts that figure from your income to find your residual income (e.g. your money “left over” each month).
Think of the residual income calculation as a real-world simulation of your living expenses.
It is the VA’s best effort to ensure that military families have a stress-free homeownership experience.
Here is an example of how residual income works, assuming a family of four which is purchasing a 2,000 square-foot home on a $5,000 monthly income.
Future house payment, plus other debt payments: $2,500
Monthly estimated income taxes: $1,000
Monthly estimated utilities at $0.14 per square foot: $280
This leaves a residual income calculation of $1,220.
Now, compare that residual income to for a family of four:
Northeast Region: $1,025
Midwest Region: $1,003
South Region: $1,003
West Region: $1,117
The borrower in our example exceeds VA’s residual income standards in all parts of the country.
Therefore, despite the borrower’s debt-to-income ratio of 50%, the borrower could get approved for a VA loan.
Verify your VA loan eligibility. Start here
Qualifying for a VA loan with part-time income
You can qualify for this type of financing even if you have a part-time job or multiple jobs.
You must show a 2-year history of making consistent part-time income, and stability in the number of hours worked. The lender will make sure any income received appears stable. See our complete guide to getting a mortgage when you’re self-employed or work part-time.
VA funding fees and loan limits
About the VA funding fee
The VA charges an upfront fee to defray the costs of the program and make it sustainable for the future.
Veterans pay a lump sum that varies depending on the loan purpose and down payment amount.
The fee is normally wrapped into the loan. It does not add to the cash needed to close the loan.
Find out if you qualify for a VA loan. Start here
VA home purchase funding fees
Type of Military Service
Down Payment
Fee for First-Time Use
Fee for Subsequent Use
Active Duty, Reserves, and National Guard
None
2.3%
3.6%
5% or more
1.65%
1.65%
10% or more
1.4%
1.4%
VA cash-out refinance funding fees
Type of Military Service
Fee for First-Time Use
Fee for Subsequent Uses
Active Duty, Reserves, and National Guard
2.3%
3.6%
VA streamline refinances (IRRRL) & assumptions
Type of Military Service
Fee for First-Time Use
Fee for Subsequent Uses
Active Duty, Reserves, and National Guard
0.5%
0.5%
Manufactured home loans not permanently affixed
Type of Military Service
Fee for First-Time Use
Fee for Subsequent Uses
Active Duty, Reserves, and National Guard
1.0%
1.0%
VA loan limits in 2024
VA loan limits have been repealed, thanks to the Blue Water Navy Vietnam Veterans Act of 2019.
There is no maximum amount for which a home buyer can receive a VA loan, at least as far as the VA is concerned.
However, private lenders may set their own limits. So check with your lender if you are looking for a VA loan above local conforming loan limits.
Verify your VA loan eligibility. Start here
Eligible property types
Houses you can buy with a VA loan
VA mortgages are flexible about what types of property you can and can’t purchase. A VA loan can be used to buy a:
Detached house
Condo
New-built home
Manufactured home
Duplex, triplex or four-unit property
Find out if you qualify for a VA loan. Start here
You can also use a VA mortgage to refinance an existing loan for any of those types of properties.
VA loans and second homes
Federal regulations limit loans guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs to “primary residences” only.
However, “primary residence” is defined as the home in which you live “most of the year.”
Therefore, if you own an out-of-state residence in which you live for more than six months of the year, this other home, whether it’s your vacation home or retirement property, becomes your official “primary residence.”
For this reason, VA loans are popular among aging military borrowers.
Buying a multi-unit home with a VA loan
VA loans allow you to buy a duplex, triplex, or four-plex with 100% financing. You must live in one of the units.
Buying a home with more than one unit can be challenging.
Mortgage lenders consider these properties riskier to finance than traditional, single-family residences, so you’ll need to be a stronger borrower.
VA underwriters must make sure you will have enough emergency savings, or cash reserves, after closing on your house. That’s to ensure you’ll have money to pay your mortgage even if a tenant fails to pay rent or moves out.
The minimum cash reserves needed after closing is six months of mortgage payments (covering principal, interest, taxes, and insurance – PITI).
Your lender will also want to know about previous landlord experience you’ve had, or any experience with property maintenance or renting.
If you don’t have any, you may be able to sidestep that issue by hiring a property management company. But that’s up to the individual lender.
Your lender will look at the income (or potential income) of the rental units, using either existing rental agreements or an appraiser’s opinion of what the units should fetch.
They’ll usually take 75% of that amount to offset your mortgage payment when calculating your monthly expenses.
VA loans and rental properties
You cannot use a VA loan to buy a rental property. You can, however, use a VA loan to refinance an existing rental home you once occupied as a primary home.
For home purchases, in order to obtain a VA loan, you must certify that you intend to occupy the home as your principal residence.
If the property is a duplex, triplex, or four-unit apartment building, you must occupy one of the units yourself. Then you can rent out the other units.
The exception to this rule is the VA’s Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan (IRRRL).
This loan, also known as the VA Streamline Refinance, can be used for refinancing an existing VA loan on a home where you currently live or where you used to live, but no longer do.
Check your VA IRRRL eligibility. Start here
Buying a condo with a VA loan
The VA maintains a list of approved condo projects within which you may purchase a unit with a VA loan.
At VA’s website, you can search for the thousands of approved condominium complexes across the U.S.
If you are VA-eligible and in the market for a condo, make sure the unit you’re interested in is approved.
As a buyer, you are probably not able to get the complex VA-approved. That’s up to the management company or homeowner’s association.
If a condo you like is not approved, you must use other financing like an FHA or conventional loan or find another property.
Note that the condo must meet FHA or conventional guidelines if you want to use those types of financing.
Veteran mortgage relief with the VA loan
The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, or VA, provides home retention assistance. The VA intervenes when a veteran is having trouble making home loan payments.
The VA works with loan servicers to offer loan options to the veteran, other than foreclosure.
Find out if you qualify for a VA loan. Start here
In fiscal year 2019, the VA made over 400,000 contact actions to reach borrowers and loan servicers. The intent was to work out a mutually agreeable repayment option for both parties.
More than 100,000 veteran homeowners avoided foreclosure in 2019 alone thanks to this effort.
The initiative has saved the taxpayer an estimated $2.6 billion. More importantly, vast numbers of veterans and military families got another chance at homeownership.
When NOT to use a VA loan
If you have good credit and 20% down
A primary advantage to VA home loans is the lack of mortgage insurance.
However, the VA guarantee does not come free of charge. Borrowers pay an upfront funding fee, which they usually choose to add to their loan amount.
The fee ranges from 1.4% to 3.6%, depending on the down payment percentage and whether the home buyer has previously used his or her VA mortgage eligibility. The most common fee is 2.3%.
Find out if you qualify for a VA loan. Start here
On a $200,000 purchase, a 2.3% fee equals $4,600.
However, buyers who choose a conventional mortgage and put 20% down get to avoid mortgage insurance and the upfront fee. For these military home buyers, the VA funding fee might be an unnecessary expense.
The exception: Mortgage applicants whose credit rating or income meets VA guidelines but not those of conventional mortgages may still opt for VA.
If you’re on the “CAIVRS” list
To qualify for a VA loan, you must prove you have made good on previous government-backed debts and that you have paid taxes.
The Credit Alert Verification Reporting System, or “CAIVRS,” is a database of consumers who have defaulted on government obligations. These individuals are not eligible for the VA home loan program.
If you have a non-veteran co-borrower
Veterans often apply to buy a home with a non-veteran who is not their spouse.
This is okay. However, it might not be their best choice.
As the veteran, your income must cover your half of the loan payment. The non-veteran’s income cannot be used to compensate for the veteran’s insufficient income.
Plus, when a non-veteran owns half the loan, the VA guarantees only half that amount. The lender will require a 12.5% down payment for the non-guaranteed portion.
The Conventional 97 mortgage, on the other hand, allows down payments as low as 3%.
Another low-down-payment mortgage option is the FHA home loan, for which 3.5% down is acceptable.
The USDA home loan also requires zero down payment and offers similar rates to VA loans. However, the property must be within USDA-eligible areas.
If you plan to borrow with a non-veteran, one of these loan types might be your better choice.
Explore your mortgage options. Start here
If you apply with a credit-challenged spouse
In states with community property laws, VA lenders must consider the credit rating and financial obligations of your spouse. This rule applies even if he or she will not be on the home’s title or even on the mortgage.
Such states are as follows.
Arizona
California
Idaho
Louisiana
Nevada
New Mexico
Texas
Washington
Wisconsin
A spouse with less-than-perfect credit or who owes alimony, child support, or other maintenance can make your VA approval more challenging.
Apply for a conventional loan if you qualify for the mortgage by yourself. The spouse’s financial history and status need not be considered if he or she is not on the loan application.
Verify your VA loan home buying eligibility. Start here
If you want to buy a vacation home or investment property
The purpose of VA financing is to help veterans and active-duty service members buy and live in their own home. This loan is not meant to build real estate portfolios.
These loans are for primary residences only, so if you want a ski cabin or rental, you’ll have to get a conventional loan.
If you want to purchase a high-end home
Starting January 2020, there are no limits to the size of mortgage a lender can approve.
However, lenders may establish their own limits for VA loans, so check with your lender before applying for a large VA loan.
Spouses and the VA mortgage program
What spouses are eligible for a VA loan?
What if the service member passes away before he or she uses the benefit? Eligibility passes to an unremarried spouse, in many cases.
Find and lock a low VA loan rate today. Start here
For the surviving spouse to be eligible, the deceased service member must have:
Died in the line of duty
Passed away as a result of a service-connected disability
Been missing in action, or a prisoner of war, for at least 90 days
Been a totally disabled veteran for at least 10 years prior to death, and died from any cause
Also eligible are remarried spouses who married after the age of 57, on or after December 16, 2003.
In these cases, the surviving spouse can use VA loan eligibility to buy a home with zero down payment, just as the veteran would have.
VA loan benefits for surviving spouses
Surviving spouses have an additional VA loan benefit, however. They are exempt from the VA funding fee. As a result, their loan balance and monthly payment will be lower.
Surviving spouses are also eligible for a VA streamline refinance when they meet the following guidelines.
The surviving spouse was married to the veteran at the time of death
The surviving spouse was on the original VA loan
VA streamline refinancing is typically not available when the deceased veteran was the only applicant on the original VA loan, even if he or she got married after buying the home.
In this case, the surviving spouse would need to qualify for a non-VA refinance, or a VA cash-out loan.
A cash-out mortgage through VA requires the military spouse to meet home purchase eligibility requirements.
If this is the case, the surviving spouse can tap into the home’s equity to raise cash for any purpose, or even pay off an FHA or conventional loan to eliminate mortgage insurance.
Qualifying if you receive (or pay) child support or alimony
Buying a home after a divorce is no easy task.
If, prior to your divorce, you lived in a two-income household, you now have less spending power and a reduced monthly income for purposes of your VA home loan application.
With less income, it can be harder to meet both the VA Home Loan Guaranty’s debt-to-income (DTI) guidelines and the VA residual income requirement for your area.
Receiving alimony or child support can counteract a loss of income.
Mortgage lenders will not require you to provide information about your divorce agreement’s alimony or child support terms, but if you’re willing to disclose, it can count toward qualifying for a home loan.
Different VA-approved lenders will treat alimony and child support income differently.
Typically, you will be asked to provide a copy of your divorce settlement or other court paperwork to support the alimony and child support payments.
Lenders will then want to see that the payments are stable, reliable, and likely to continue for another 36 months, at least.
You may also be asked to show proof that alimony and child support payments have been made in the past reliably, so that the lender may use the income as part of your VA loan application.
If you are the payor of alimony and child support payments, your debt-to-income ratio can be harmed.
Not only might you be losing the second income of your dual-income households, but you’re making additional payments that count against your outflows.
VA mortgage lenders make careful calculations with respect to such payments.
You can still get approved for a VA loan while making such payments — it’s just more difficult to show sufficient monthly income.
VA loan assumption
What is VA loan assumption?
One benefit for home buyers is that VA loans are assumable. When you assume a mortgage loan, you take over the current homeowner’s monthly payment.
Verify your VA loan home buying eligibility. Start here
That could be a big advantage if mortgage rates have risen since the original owner purchased the home. The buyer would be able to acquire a low-rate, affordable loan — and it could make it easier for the seller to find a willing buyer in a tough market.
VA loan assumption savings
Buying a home via an assumable mortgage loan is even more appealing when interest rates are on the rise.
For example:
Say a seller-financed $200,000 for their home in 2013 at an interest rate of 3.25% on a 30-year fixed loan
Using this scenario, their principal and interest payment would be $898 per month
Let’s assume current 30-year fixed rates averaged 4.10%
If you financed $200,000 at 4.10% for a 30-year loan term, your monthly principal and interest payment would be $966 per month
Additionally, because the seller has already paid four years into the loan term, they’ve already paid nearly $25,000 in interest on the loan.
By assuming the loan, you would save $34,560 over the 30-year loan due to the difference in interest rates. You would also save roughly $25,000 thanks to the interest already paid by the sellers.
That comes out to a total savings of almost $60,000!
How to assume (take on) a VA loan
There are currently two ways to assume a VA loan.
The new buyer is a qualified veteran who “substitutes” his or her VA eligibility for the eligibility of the seller
The new home buyer qualifies through VA standards for the mortgage payment. This is the safest method for the seller as it allows the loan to be assumed knowing that the new buyer is responsible for the loan, and the seller is no longer responsible for the loan
The lender and/or the VA needs to approve a loan assumption.
Loans serviced by a lender with automatic authority may process assumptions without sending them to a VA Regional Loan Center.
For lenders without automatic authority, the loan must be sent to the appropriate VA Regional Loan Center for approval. This loan process will typically take several weeks.
When VA loans are assumed, it’s the servicer’s responsibility to make sure the homeowner who assumes the property meets both VA and lender requirements.
VA loan assumption requirements
For a VA mortgage assumption to take place, the following conditions must be met:
The existing loan must be current. If not, any past due amounts must be paid at or before closing
The buyer must qualify based on VA credit and income standards
The buyer must assume all mortgage obligations, including repayment to the VA if the loan goes into default
The original owner or new owner must pay a funding fee of 0.5% of the existing principal loan balance
A processing fee must be paid in advance, including a reasonable estimate for the cost of the credit report
Find out if you qualify for a VA loan. Start here
Finding assumable VA loans
There are several ways for home buyers to find an assumable VA loan.
Believe it or not, print media is still alive and well. Some home sellers advertise their assumable home for sale in the newspaper, or in a local real estate publication.
There are a number of online resources for finding assumable mortgage loans.
Websites like TakeList.com and Zumption.com give homeowners a way to showcase their properties to home buyers looking to assume a loan.
With the help of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), real estate agents remain a great resource for home buyers.
This applies to home buyers specifically searching for assumable VA loans as well.
How do I apply for a VA loan?
You can easily and quickly have a lender pull your certificate of eligibility (COE) to make sure you’re able to get a VA loan.
Most mortgage lenders offer VA home loans. So you’re free to shop and compare rates with just about any company that catches your eye.
Getting a VA loan for your new home is similar in many ways to securing any other purchase loan. Once you find an ideal home in your price range, you make a purchase offer, and then undergo VA appraisal and underwriting.
VA appraisal ensures that the home meets its minimum property requirements (MPRs) and is structurally sound and safe for occupancy.
What’s more, VA-specific mortgage lenders are actually some of the highest-rated (and lowest-priced) on the market. Here are a few we’d recommend checking out.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
The Miami housing market has been a topic of interest for both buyers and sellers in recent years. With its lively vibe, beautiful beaches and booming economy, Miami has become a desirable location for people of all walks of life looking to invest in real estate.
In this article, we will delve into the current state of the Miami home prices, exploring key trends, average home prices and market competitiveness. Whether you’re a prospective buyer, seller or simply curious about the Miami real estate scene, this is the place to be to gain valuable insights you need to enter the market with confidence.
Miami housing market at a glance
Miami’s housing market has experienced significant growth in recent years, with rising home prices and increased demand. In December 2023, the median sale price for homes in Miami reached $570,000, reflecting an 11.8% increase compared to the previous year. This price surge indicates a strong market and a favorable environment for sellers.
Average days on the market
One important factor to consider in the Miami housing market is the average number of days homes stay on the market. Homes in Miami sell after an average of 69 days, which is a slight decrease from the previous year’s average of 71 days. This suggests that the market is relatively quick-paced, with buyers actively searching for properties and pulling the trigger when they see something they like.
Competitiveness of the Miami housing market
To assess the competitiveness of the Miami housing market, we can look at multiple offers and sale-to-list price ratios. In Miami, multiple offers are relatively rare, indicating a less competitive market compared to other cities. On average, homes in Miami sell for about 4% below the list price.
Miami’s pricing compared to the national average
Miami’s median sale price of $570,000 is 41% higher than the national average. This significant difference highlights the desirability of the Miami real estate market and the premium prices buyers may expect to pay. Additionally, the overall cost of living in Miami is 19% higher than the national average, further emphasizing the city’s appeal to those in higher tax brackets.
Number of homes sold
The number of homes sold in Miami provides valuable insights into the overall market activity. In December 2023, there were 495 homes sold, representing an increase from the previous year’s 472 homes sold. This uptick indicates a strong housing market with a healthy level of buyer demand.
Miami rental market overview
Apart from the housing market, Miami’s rental market is also a crucial aspect to consider for anyone seeking temporary or long-term accommodations. 2024 has already proven a positive year for renters as prices have slowly dipped in several key markets, and landlords are willing to offer valuable renter incentives. Let’s explore the average prices and trends in Miami’s available rentals to provide a comprehensive analysis.
Average rent prices in Miami
The average rent prices in Miami vary depending on the type of apartment. For studio apartments, the median price started at $2,644 in January and gradually decreased to $2,210 by December. On the other hand, the median price for one-bedroom apartments remained relatively stable throughout the year, ranging from $2,579 to $2,726. For two-bedroom apartments, the median sale price fluctuated between $3,872 and $3,600.
Month
Studio
1 Bed
2 Beds
Jan 2023
$2,644
$2,579
$3,872
Feb 2023
$2,579
$3,009
$3,972
Mar 2023
$2,633
$2,986
$3,908
Apr 2023
$2,615
$2,938
$3,790
May 2023
$2,615
$2,952
$3,811
Jun 2023
$2,435
$2,927
$3,702
Jul 2023
$2,423
$2,921
$3,728
Aug 2023
$2,355
$2,770
$3,675
Sep 2023
$2,249
$2,719
$3,504
Oct 2023
$2,274
$2,700
$3,401
Nov 2023
$2,270
$2,684
$3,565
Dec 2023
$2,209
$2,658
$3,552
Jan 2024
$2,210
$2,726
$3,600
Rental market trends
Understanding Miami’s rental market trends can help landlords and tenants make informed decisions. Let’s take a closer look at the changes in average rent prices over the past year.
Average rent price fluctuations
In the past year, the average rent in Miami experienced slight fluctuations. Studio apartments saw a 16% decrease in rent, starting at $2,644 in January and ending at $2,210 in December. Similarly, one-bedroom apartments experienced a 9% decrease, with rent ranging from $2,579 to $2,726. For two-bedroom apartments, the rent decreased by 7%, fluctuating between $3,972 and $3,600.
Apartment type
Avg. rent
Annual change
Studio
$2,210
-16%
1 Bed
$2,726
-9%
2 Beds
$3,600
-7%
Affordable neighborhoods in Miami
For those looking for more affordable housing options in Miami, certain neighborhoods offer lower rent prices. Let’s explore some of the most affordable neighborhoods in Miami and the average rent prices for one-bedroom apartments.
Neighborhood
Average rent for 1-bedroom apartment
Allapattah
$1,700
Little Haiti
$1,700
Model City
$1,700
Little River
$1,700
Shore Crest
$1,700
Neighborhood rent trends
Different neighborhoods in Miami may have varying rent trends, making it key to consider location-specific factors when searching for rental properties. Here is a breakdown of rent trends for studio apartments in various neighborhoods in Miami.
Neighborhood
Studio Avg Rent
Annual Change
Lower Brickell
$3,810
-7%
Miami Financial District
$3,500
+32%
Brickell
$3,159
+17%
Miami Urban Acres
$2,940
-27%
Riverside
$2,828
+21%
Riverview
$2,813
+20%
West Brickell
$2,660
-2%
Brickell Village
$2,619
+9%
Downtown
$2,584
-4%
Riverfront
$2,550
N/A
Comparison with other cities
If you’re considering Miami as a potential relocation destination, it’s helpful to understand how it compares to other cities in terms of rental prices. Here is a comparison of studio apartment average rent prices in Miami and several other cities.
City
Studio Avg Rent
Annual Change
Coral Gables
$2,723
-15%
Miramar
$2,370
+76%
Sunny Isles Beach
$2,350
-2%
Doral
$2,142
-2%
Boca Raton
$1,972
-16%
Plantation
$1,930
+21%
Fort Lauderdale
$1,920
-14%
Coconut Grove
$1,800
+3%
Hialeah
$1,800
+4%
Miami Beach
$1,766
-12%
Make Miami your home
The Miami housing market is a fertile environment for buyers, sellers and renters alike. With rising home prices, a relatively quick sales process and increased demand, Miami proves to be an attractive real estate destination.
The rental market provides a range of options, from affordable neighborhoods to upscale areas. By understanding the current trends and market conditions, anyone can make an informed decision when navigating the Miami housing and rental market. So, whether you’re looking to buy, sell or rent, Miami is a great place to call home.
The Miami housing market has been a topic of interest for both buyers and sellers in recent years. With its lively vibe, beautiful beaches and booming economy, Miami has become a desirable location for people of all walks of life looking to invest in real estate.
In this article, we will delve into the current state of the Miami home prices, exploring key trends, average home prices and market competitiveness. Whether you’re a prospective buyer, seller or simply curious about the Miami real estate scene, this is the place to be to gain valuable insights you need to enter the market with confidence.
Miami housing market at a glance
Miami’s housing market has experienced significant growth in recent years, with rising home prices and increased demand. In December 2023, the median sale price for homes in Miami reached $570,000, reflecting an 11.8% increase compared to the previous year. This price surge indicates a strong market and a favorable environment for sellers.
Average days on the market
One important factor to consider in the Miami housing market is the average number of days homes stay on the market. Homes in Miami sell after an average of 69 days, which is a slight decrease from the previous year’s average of 71 days. This suggests that the market is relatively quick-paced, with buyers actively searching for properties and pulling the trigger when they see something they like.
Competitiveness of the Miami housing market
To assess the competitiveness of the Miami housing market, we can look at multiple offers and sale-to-list price ratios. In Miami, multiple offers are relatively rare, indicating a less competitive market compared to other cities. On average, homes in Miami sell for about 4% below the list price.
Miami’s pricing compared to the national average
Miami’s median sale price of $570,000 is 41% higher than the national average. This significant difference highlights the desirability of the Miami real estate market and the premium prices buyers may expect to pay. Additionally, the overall cost of living in Miami is 19% higher than the national average, further emphasizing the city’s appeal to those in higher tax brackets.
Number of homes sold
The number of homes sold in Miami provides valuable insights into the overall market activity. In December 2023, there were 495 homes sold, representing an increase from the previous year’s 472 homes sold. This uptick indicates a strong housing market with a healthy level of buyer demand.
Miami rental market overview
Apart from the housing market, Miami’s rental market is also a crucial aspect to consider for anyone seeking temporary or long-term accommodations. 2024 has already proven a positive year for renters as prices have slowly dipped in several key markets, and landlords are willing to offer valuable renter incentives. Let’s explore the average prices and trends in Miami’s available rentals to provide a comprehensive analysis.
Average rent prices in Miami
The average rent prices in Miami vary depending on the type of apartment. For studio apartments, the median price started at $2,644 in January and gradually decreased to $2,210 by December. On the other hand, the median price for one-bedroom apartments remained relatively stable throughout the year, ranging from $2,579 to $2,726. For two-bedroom apartments, the median sale price fluctuated between $3,872 and $3,600.
Month
Studio
1 Bed
2 Beds
Jan 2023
$2,644
$2,579
$3,872
Feb 2023
$2,579
$3,009
$3,972
Mar 2023
$2,633
$2,986
$3,908
Apr 2023
$2,615
$2,938
$3,790
May 2023
$2,615
$2,952
$3,811
Jun 2023
$2,435
$2,927
$3,702
Jul 2023
$2,423
$2,921
$3,728
Aug 2023
$2,355
$2,770
$3,675
Sep 2023
$2,249
$2,719
$3,504
Oct 2023
$2,274
$2,700
$3,401
Nov 2023
$2,270
$2,684
$3,565
Dec 2023
$2,209
$2,658
$3,552
Jan 2024
$2,210
$2,726
$3,600
Rental market trends
Understanding Miami’s rental market trends can help landlords and tenants make informed decisions. Let’s take a closer look at the changes in average rent prices over the past year.
Average rent price fluctuations
In the past year, the average rent in Miami experienced slight fluctuations. Studio apartments saw a 16% decrease in rent, starting at $2,644 in January and ending at $2,210 in December. Similarly, one-bedroom apartments experienced a 9% decrease, with rent ranging from $2,579 to $2,726. For two-bedroom apartments, the rent decreased by 7%, fluctuating between $3,972 and $3,600.
Apartment type
Avg. rent
Annual change
Studio
$2,210
-16%
1 Bed
$2,726
-9%
2 Beds
$3,600
-7%
Affordable neighborhoods in Miami
For those looking for more affordable housing options in Miami, certain neighborhoods offer lower rent prices. Let’s explore some of the most affordable neighborhoods in Miami and the average rent prices for one-bedroom apartments.
Neighborhood
Average rent for 1-bedroom apartment
Allapattah
$1,700
Little Haiti
$1,700
Model City
$1,700
Little River
$1,700
Shore Crest
$1,700
Neighborhood rent trends
Different neighborhoods in Miami may have varying rent trends, making it key to consider location-specific factors when searching for rental properties. Here is a breakdown of rent trends for studio apartments in various neighborhoods in Miami.
Neighborhood
Studio Avg Rent
Annual Change
Lower Brickell
$3,810
-7%
Miami Financial District
$3,500
+32%
Brickell
$3,159
+17%
Miami Urban Acres
$2,940
-27%
Riverside
$2,828
+21%
Riverview
$2,813
+20%
West Brickell
$2,660
-2%
Brickell Village
$2,619
+9%
Downtown
$2,584
-4%
Riverfront
$2,550
N/A
Comparison with other cities
If you’re considering Miami as a potential relocation destination, it’s helpful to understand how it compares to other cities in terms of rental prices. Here is a comparison of studio apartment average rent prices in Miami and several other cities.
City
Studio Avg Rent
Annual Change
Coral Gables
$2,723
-15%
Miramar
$2,370
+76%
Sunny Isles Beach
$2,350
-2%
Doral
$2,142
-2%
Boca Raton
$1,972
-16%
Plantation
$1,930
+21%
Fort Lauderdale
$1,920
-14%
Coconut Grove
$1,800
+3%
Hialeah
$1,800
+4%
Miami Beach
$1,766
-12%
Make Miami your home
The Miami housing market is a fertile environment for buyers, sellers and renters alike. With rising home prices, a relatively quick sales process and increased demand, Miami proves to be an attractive real estate destination.
The rental market provides a range of options, from affordable neighborhoods to upscale areas. By understanding the current trends and market conditions, anyone can make an informed decision when navigating the Miami housing and rental market. So, whether you’re looking to buy, sell or rent, Miami is a great place to call home.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday. That was a bit of a surprise (though a welcome one) because yesterday’s inflation report would normally have pushed them higher. Read on for why markets might have reacted unexpectedly.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might fall. But these early mini-trends often switch direction or speed as the hours pass — as we saw yesterday.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.015%
7.03%
-0.07
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.28%
6.31%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.91%
6.93%
-0.065
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.09%
6.125%
-0.14
30-year fixed FHA
5.875%
6.545%
-0.3
30-year fixed VA
5.99%
6.14%
-0.085
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.31%
7.56%
-0.005
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Yesterday’s fall in mortgage rates showed markets continuing to have faith in a “soft landing,” which will occur if we continue to see falling inflation together with a resilient economy. Indeed, it suggests that faith can’t be shaken even by occasional unfriendly data.
I think a soft landing remains the most likely scenario for 2024.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 3.93% from 4.04%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $74.42 from $72.80 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices climbed to $2,065 from $2,036 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched lower to 73 from 75. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Yesterday
I suspect that Wall Street has bought the narrative of a soft landing (see above) and, for now, is prepared to stick to it through thick and thin. That’s my only real explanation for why mortgage rates fell yesterday despite an unfriendly inflation report.
True, some saw the report as less unfriendly than others. The New York Times (paywall), for example, reported it under the headline, “Price Increases Tick Higher, but Show Moderation.”
But the consumer price index (CPI) was undeniably worse than expected. And that would normally exert some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Still, let’s not give this gift horse too close a dental inspection.
Today
Producer price indexes (PPIs) are typically less important than CPIs. But they still sometimes affect mortgage rates.
Today’s PPI showed factory-gate and wholesale prices rising more slowly than expected. And that would normally be good for mortgage rates. However, as we saw yesterday, markets don’t always follow such “rules.”
Next week
Rather like this week, next week starts slowly but contains an important economic report. Things are especially quiet on Monday because bond markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. And closed bond markets mean mortgage rates shouldn’t move. (So, we shall not be publishing this daily report on Monday.)
Tuesday’s similarly dull with no economic reports scheduled for release.
However, Wednesday is potentially next week’s big day for mortgage rates, led by the retail sales report for December. But, after that, things tail off again.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Jan. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.66%, up from the previous week’s 6.62%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the last quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
For a third day, average mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. But that’s good because it means last week’s big falls remain effectively uneroded.
First thing, it was again looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly or moderately. However, that could change as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.125%
7.14%
-0.075
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.385%
6.415%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.975%
7%
-0.045
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.12%
6.145%
-0.065
30-year fixed FHA
5.98%
6.88%
-0.095
30-year fixed VA
6.165%
6.315%
-0.13
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.425%
7.675%
-0.035
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Every day that passes makes a corrective bounce (when mortgage rates rise as markets think they’ve got carried away) less likely. And it reinforces my hope that those rates are in a downward trend that could last well into next year.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.90% from 3.92%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mostly falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices climbed to $75.14 from $73.12 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices held steady at $2,049 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — ticked down to 77 from 78. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Federal Reserve
This morning’s Wall Street Journal (paywall) observed: “After their policy meeting last week, Fed officials released projections of at least three rate cuts [in general interest rates] next year. They have since been flummoxed that investors expect even faster and deeper cuts. The result: Confusion over when and how quickly the Fed might cut as the central bank tries to bring inflation down without a painful recession.”
This could turn into a real issue that could push mortgage rates higher, probably in the new year. Wall Street has a long and inglorious record of hearing what it wants the Fed to say rather than what the Fed actually says. And we’ve seen quite recently examples of sharp rises in mortgage rates when markets’ wishful thinking collides with reality.
Still, last week’s Fed meeting did deliver genuinely good news. And, even if mortgage rates rise when investors face the cold light of dawning reality, I’m optimistic that we’ll keep at least most of the recent gains. Just be aware that the path to lower mortgage rates is unlikely to be smooth.
Today
This morning’s economic reports cover existing home sales in November and consumer confidence in December. They’re both published too late for me to assess their likely impact on markets and mortgage rates.
They could push mortgage rates a little higher or lower, but they rarely move them far or for long.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of this year. This will be the third and final estimate for this number.
The second estimate put GDP growth at 5.2%, up from 2.1% in the second quarter. MarketWatch says that market expectations for tomorrow’s figure have recently been slightly scaled down to 5.1%.
If the actual number tomorrow is lower than 5.1%, that could drag mortgage rates lower. But, if it’s higher, that could push those rates upward.
Friday
We’re due November’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. Markets might get nervous if that shows inflation rising more than expected because that could destroy the Fed’s new-found optimism.
More on what to expect from the PCE report tomorrow.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Dec. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.95%, down from the previous week’s 7.03%. Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Well, another year is nearly in the books, which means it’s time to look ahead at what 2024 might have in store.
As is customary, I take a look at mortgage rate predictions from a variety of economists and offer up my own take for the upcoming year.
I also look back at the predictions for the current year to see how everyone did (hint: not well!).
The big story in 2023 was out of control inflation. The story going forward might be cooling inflation.
Though there’s also the risk it resurges, at which point mortgage interest rates could rise again.
Mortgage Rates Are Expected to Go Down in 2024
First let’s talk about the general outlook. Most expect mortgage rates to go down in 2024, which was actually the call in 2023 as well.
But guess what? Everyone was wrong. Expectations that the 30-year fixed would fall back into the 5% range were way off.
Instead, interest rates on the popular loan program surpassed the 8% mark before finally letting up over the past month.
So while many economists are optimistic for the coming year, take note that they felt the same way a year ago. And got it wrong.
But things aren’t exactly the same. The Fed increased its fed funds rate 11 times, which many believe has worked to corral inflation.
And this could lead to weak economic output and rising unemployment, which could result in Fed rate cuts as early as March 2024.
This doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates would follow the Fed lower, but it could signal that the worst is behind us.
As such, mortgage rates may have peaked, and it’s possible they could continue to drift lower and find a comfortable medium between their old record lows and recent near-21st century highs.
MBA 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: 7.1% Second quarter 2024: 6.6% Third quarter 2024: 6.3% Fourth quarter 2024: 6.1%
First up is the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), which is often fairly bullish about mortgage rates improving.
They are, after all, fans of mortgages being originated, and lower rates equate to higher funding volume.
Last year, they predicted that the 30-year fixed would ease throughout 2023 and average 5.2% in the fourth quarter.
That didn’t work out as planned, with the 30-year fixed closer to 7% today. And it was actually above 8% just a month ago.
Still, they are predicting lower mortgage rates in 2024, just as they did last year. The difference this time around might the inflation story.
It has cooled a lot since then, which could lead to Fed rate cuts and an easing in the 10-year treasury yield, which correlates well with mortgage rates.
Ultimately, they may have expected inflation to improve faster than it did, which is why they got rates wrong in 2023.
Now that inflation actually is significantly lower, their predictions could come to fruition. Also note that their latest prediction is a full percentage point higher than it was a year ago.
They only expect the 30-year fixed to fall to 6.1% by the end of 2024 versus 5.2% when they made the same forecast a year ago.
Fannie Mae 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: 7.6% Second quarter 2024: 7.4% Third quarter 2024: 7.2% Fourth quarter 2024: 7.1%
Next up is Fannie Mae, which purchases and securitizes conforming mortgage loans.
They are a lot less bullish than the MBA, as they expect the 30-year fixed to remain in the 7% range for all of 2024.
It’s possible they’ll update their forecast in light of recent improvements in mortgage rates.
But as it stands, they don’t expect the 30-year fixed to drop below 7.10%, which is basically where it’s at now.
So we can take this to mean they expect mortgage rates to remain relatively flat at these new, higher levels for much of 2024.
I will update their numbers if they release a new forecast before the end of 2023.
Freddie Mac 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: n/a Second quarter 2024: n/a Third quarter 2024: n/a Fourth quarter 2024: n/a
While Freddie Mac stopped releasing a monthly outlook for mortgage rates (for reasons unknown), they still do a monthly commentary.
And from that we can glean some ideas about where they think mortgage rates will go in 2024.
Their latest outlook notes that they expect “recent volatility in Treasury yields to abate which will allow modest reductions in mortgage rates.”
How modest? Well, they said mortgage rates will probably not fall below 6% “in the short run” thanks to the higher for longer narrative.
But given the recent improvement in rates (and the 10-year bond yield), it’s possible rates could get back in the low-6s in 2024.
And if the borrower pays discount points, a rate in the 5% range is also possible, assuming those mortgage rate spreads tighten due to decreased volatility.
A year ago, they expected the 30-year fixed to fall to 6.1% by the fourth quarter of 2023. So perhaps they’re being a bit more conservative.
However, they expect home prices to rise a further 2.6% in 2024 thanks to mortgage rate lock-in effect and favorable demographics, including an elevated share of first-time home buyers.
NAR 2024 Mortgage Rate Outlook
First quarter 2024: 7.5% Second quarter 2024: 6.9% Third quarter 2024: 6.5% Fourth quarter 2024: 6.3%
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a monthly U.S. Economic Outlook that contains their mortgage rate predictions for the year ahead.
I’m going off their October version until I can get a more updated one, so I expect their numbers to get even more optimistic given the recent improvement in mortgage rates.
There’s even a chance they’ll throw out a number in the high-5% range for the fourth quarter of 2024.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun also expects the 30-year fixed to average between 6-7% by the spring home buying season.
He added that “we’ve already reached the peak in terms of interest rates.” So his expectation is it’ll get better from here. The question is how much better.
Zillow’s 2024 Mortgage Rate Prediction
Next we have Zillow. Sometimes they make mortgage rate predictions, sometimes they don’t.
Given how wrong everyone has been lately, they said, “Predicting how mortgage rates will move is a nearly impossible task…”
However, they do expect home prices to “hold steady in 2024,” declining by a negligible 0.2%.
They also believe mortgage rates may “hold fairly steady” too in coming months if recent inflation readings are any indication.
Together, the cost of buying a home could level off next year, or even drop if mortgage rates do too. But they aren’t throwing out specific numbers.
Interestingly, Zillow expects more mortgage rate locked-in homeowners to “end their holdout for lower rates and go ahead with those moves.”
So even if rates don’t get much better, the holdouts might say enough is enough and list their properties.
If rates do keep dropping, this argument becomes even more compelling. So much-needed supply could be freed up in the process.
Redfin 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
Meanwhile, Redfin believes mortgage rates will steadily decline throughout 2024, but remain above 6%.
Specifically, they expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to linger around 7% in the first quarter, then inch down as the year goes on.
By the end of 2024, the real estate brokerage thinks mortgage rates will fall to about 6.6% thanks in part to 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed.
Offsetting these cuts is the expectation that we will avoid a recession in 2024. So a lack of serious economic pain means more modest declines in rates as opposed to sizable ones.
Still, they see home buyers finally catching a break because home prices are also predicted to be flat.
This means monthly payments will fall further from their recent all-time highs, which we can all agree is a good thing.
Realtor 2024 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Meanwhile, the economists at Realtor.com are predicting a minimal decline in mortgage rates, but still an improvement.
They expect the 30-year fixed to average 6.8% in 2024 after averaging 6.9% in 2023. So just a 10-basis point decrease.
However, they do expect rates to finish off 2024 at 6.5%, which is a little more optimistic.
It’s also markedly better than the 2023 year-end expectation of 7.4%. And would essentially take us back to the end of 2022, when the 30-year fixed averaged 6.42%.
In other words, we might be able to forget 2023 ever happened. But we still won’t be able to revisit early 2022 anytime soon.
At that time, the 30-year fixed was a mindboggling 3.22%.
The Truth’s 2024 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2024: 6.875% Second quarter 2024: 6.625% Third quarter 2024: 6.25% Fourth quarter 2024: 5.875%
Like everyone else, I was wrong about mortgage rates in 2023. I thought they’d slowly move lower throughout the year before ending the year around 5%.
Instead, we are closer to 7% today, which is a pretty big miss. That being said, what I assumed would play out last year (lower inflation), seems to be happening now.
There are also several rate cuts now expected in 2024, with the CME FedWatch Tool favoring a 4% – 4.25% range for the federal funds rate by December 2024.
The 10-year bond yield is also expected to moderate further, and could be back to the mid-3% range.
If we assume that mortgage rate spreads also tighten from their current levels near 300 bps to something more reasonable, such as 200 bps, we could see noticeably lower mortgage rates in 2024.
Taken together, a spread of 200 bps and a 3.5% 10-year yield could signal a return to mid-5% mortgage rates.
That might sound a little too good to be true, so I’ll err on the side of caution and go for an average rate as low as 5.875% to end the year.
Remember, there are still a lot of unknowns and potential curveballs ahead. We’ve got multiple geopolitical events that are still unfolding.
And potentially the most contentious U.S. presidential election in history. So as always, mortgage rates will ebb and flow, and opportunities will present themselves.
There will be good months and bad months, but I expect mortgage rates to continue trending lower as 2024 unfolds.
For months, I’ve been banging on about the lack of a refinance program for private-label mortgages, those not backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Sure, HARP is great for underwater homeowners whose loans are owned by the pair, but what about those who aren’t so fortunate?
I’ve brought up proposals such as HARP 3 on several occasions, along with Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley’s refinance program that targets those who hold mortgages that aren’t government-backed.
The Obama administration has also been open to an expanded HARP for these types of borrowers, but without Congressional approval, any stirrings of such relief continue to fall on deaf ears.
But apparently these borrowers are actually receiving some assistance outside of HARP.
45% of Borrowers Have Received a Loan Modification
A new commentary released today by Fitch Ratings revealed that about 45% of all underwater borrowers with private-label mortgages have received a loan modification.
The company noted that loan modifications, distressed loan liquidations, and home price gains have reduced the number of underwater loans in private-label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) by a sizable 25%.
There are still roughly 1.5 million underwater loans in these at-risk securities, though that number has fallen from 2.04 million.
Perhaps the biggest driver has been home price increases, with double-digit growth seen in some of the hardest-hit areas, including Arizona, California, and Nevada.
Assuming home prices continue to tick higher, which they’re expected to, the number of waterlogged loans will continue to drop at a steady clip.
While this is all good and well, the carnage is far from over. Fitch said about one-third of all outstanding borrowers in private-label RMBS pools (no pun intended) remain underwater.
It’s unclear how deeply underwater they are, but underwater nonetheless.
Additionally, the company projects some regions of the United States, notably the Northeast, to experience further home price declines before bottoming.
Why This Is Good and Bad
At first glance, it appears to be good news. Underwater borrowers with all types of loans are generally getting the help they need to continue making mortgage payments and hold on to their homes.
This benefits everyone involved because it makes for a stronger housing market. But the numbers can be deceiving.
Sure, 45% of these non-Fannie/Freddie underwater borrowers received loan mods, but what type of loan mod?
Did they get a $100 off their loan each month? Did they get a .125% interest rate reduction? Was principal forgiveness involved?
We don’t know what level of assistance they received, and if history tells us anything, a lot of these private loan mods weren’t all that attractive, at least not compared to HARP.
Through HARP, borrowers have been able to refinance their mortgages to interest rates a few percentage points lower than their previous rate.
That’s serious assistance, enough to stick around and see this crisis out. The private mods are another question.
This improvement also doesn’t bode well for an expanded HARP for non-Fannie/Freddie borrowers. The more improvement we see and hear about, the less likely Congress will be to act.
So the prospects of a new assistance program are dwindling each day.
The Multnomah Pilot Program
There is a small glimmer of hope though. Last month, the Treasury Department approved a new pilot program to assist underwater borrowers without Fannie and Freddie loans.
The so-called “Rebuilding American Homeownership Assistance” (RAHA) Pilot was launched in Multnomah County, which includes the city of Portland.
It’s limited to borrowers with “significant negative equity” who intend to stay in the prpoerty for 5+ years. They must not own any other residential property and be current on the mortgage.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the average age of first-time homebuyers is 36 years old, which means that the millennial generation—generally regarded as individuals born between 1981 and 1996—has reached the stage in their lives where buying a home is often a top priority. Yet recently, the cost of homeownership has skyrocketed in large part due to an adverse combination of high interest rates and scarce inventory, leaving millennials with a daunting homeownership outlook.
This difficult homebuying landscape has resulted in a dramatic shift in mortgage originations. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. mortgage originations were already on the rise—climbing from $344 billion in Q1 2019 to a 14-year high of nearly $752 billion in Q4 2019. After a brief dip due to pandemic-era stay-at-home orders and social distancing, originated mortgage volume skyrocketed to a new high of over $1.2 trillion in Q2 2021. This abrupt growth is mostly attributed to historically low interest rates, low inventory, and an increased desire for more space amid the pandemic, but these conditions were short-lived. Rapidly rising interest rates combined with other forces, such as return-to-office mandates, have brought mortgage originations down to under $324 billion in Q1 2023, the lowest it has been in nearly nine years.
In order to cope with rising prices, millennials are taking out larger home loans. In 2022, the median loan amount for mortgages taken out by applicants age 25–34 was $315,000, and $365,000 for applicants age 35–44, higher than any other age group. Similarly, the loan-to-value ratio—or the amount of the mortgage compared to the sale price of the home—was 88% for 25- to 34-year-olds and 80% for 35- to 44-year-olds. Inherently, many millennials are first-time homebuyers and typically have less existing home equity to apply to new mortgages. Additionally, millennials are at the stage of their lives where they may be supporting a growing family and require more living space compared to older generations.
Despite the overall decline in homebuying across the country, millennials still account for the majority of home purchase loans in 2022. However, millennial home purchasing varies by location. Millennials in northeastern states account for the largest share of home purchase loans, with Massachusetts (64.5%), New York (63.8%), and New Jersey (63.0%) leading the country. Midwestern states such as Minnesota (62.9%), Illinois (62.6%), and North Dakota (62.4%) also rank among the top 10 states for millennial homebuying. On the other end of the spectrum, Delaware (41.1%), Florida (45.2%), and South Carolina (46.9%) have the lowest share of home purchase loans taken out by millennials and notably have older populations.
To determine the locations where millennials are buying homes, researchers at Construction Coverage, a website that provides construction insurance guides, analyzed the latest data from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. The researchers ranked states according to the millennial share of conventional home purchase loans originated in 2022. For the purpose of this analysis, millennials were considered to be those age 25–44 in the year 2022. In the event of a tie, the location with the greater total number of millennial home purchase loans was ranked higher.
The analysis found that millennials took out 57.4% of home purchase loans in South Dakota last year, with a median loan amount of $275,000. Here is a summary of the data for South Dakota:
Millennial share of home purchase loans: 57.4%
Total millennial home purchase loans: 4,193
Median loan amount: $275,000
Median loan-to-value ratio: 83.8%
Median interest rate: 5.00%
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:
Millennial share of home purchase loans: 57.8%
Total millennial home purchase loans: 1,669,539
Median loan amount: $335,000
Median loan-to-value ratio: 83.1%
Median interest rate: 4.99%
For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, see Where Are Millennials Buying Homes in the U.S.? on Construction Coverage.