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In recent years, the U.S. has hit record inflation rates due to factors as wide ranging as labor shortages and the war in Ukraine, but the degree to which prices have risen vary across the country.
WalletHub recently determined how inflation is impacting different communities in the U.S. by comparing 23 major MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) across two key metrics related to the Consumer Price Index, using the factors to determine a total score out of 100 for each metro area.
“Rising housing and natural gas prices accounted for 70% of the 3.4% increase in the latest monthly CPI report,” David Skidmore, professor of political science at Drake University, said in a WalletHub release. “Older homeowners who have mortgages locked in at low fixed rates are staying put, with the result that fewer homes are available for younger homebuyers to enter the market. This, along with sluggish new home construction, has pushed up home prices. Rents have risen to match.”
The metro area on this list with the biggest inflation problem is Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Michigan, which has the highest CPI change over two months. Other top metro areas include Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, and Urban Honolulu, Hawaii. Honolulu has the highest CPI change over the year.
Read more about the cities with the biggest inflation problems.
Inside: The decision on where you live is a big life choice. Learn how an HCOL vs LCOL area will impact you financially. Plus find the cost of living city that fits for you.
HCOL. LOCL. MCOL. What do these acronyms mean and why should I care?
Back when I was trying to decide where to live, there wasn’t a big discussion about the high cost of living or low cost of living areas.
You just picked a city close to family or branched out to a new area. Were you drawn to the big city or not? Plain and simple.
Today, there are many tools at our disposal to try and figure out what is the best city to live in based on income, expenses, and the lifestyle that you desire.
In this post, you will see how to analyze what type of city you want to live in and see if it makes financial sense for you.
Why such the price difference between HCOL and LCOL?
In a low cost of living city, you can buy a house for $50,000. In contrast, a median home price in a high cost of living city can cost $1.5 million. This is a correlation between supply and demand in the market.
The more people who want to live in a certain area that has less available space will naturally drive up prices. Whereas most low cost of living areas, the supply is abundant since there is plenty of space to spread out and find your own neck of the woods for much less.
Here’s a quick comparison of HCOL vs LCOL vs MCOL.
New York City has the highest cost of living at 100, followed by Los Angeles and San Francisco. This graph highlights the difference in cost of living in these example cities.
HCOL Seattle, WA
MCOL Las Vegas, NV
LCOL Knoxville, TN
Cost of Living Index
85.57
69.33
63.26
2 Bed Apartment Rent
$2,724
$1,176
$788
Median Home Price
$826,200
$441,771
$256,188
Median Income
$92,263
$56,354
$33,229
Data from Nerdwallet, Census.Gov, and Numbeo
What is HCOL area Mean?
Simply put, HCOL means a high cost of living.
This type of acronym is to describe certain areas or cities where expenses that impact your budget the most, such as housing, food, and transportation, are more expensive than other areas.
When defining an HCOL area, it is a comparison of the cost of living based on other areas around other cities, states, and countries.
There is no hard line to define high cost of living since it is compared to the other cities.
Is it possible to live in a high cost of living area? Absolutely, it all depends on how you choose to live, the income you make, your lifestyle choices, and your savings percentage.
VHCOL are VERY high cost of living areas, such as Manhattan, Honolulu, San Francisco, Singapore, or Hong Kong.
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Pros and Cons of HCOL
Just because an area is labeled HCOL does not mean that you shouldn’t call the city home and stay away from these areas.
There are plenty of advantages and disadvantages of living in a high cost city.
There are always drawbacks to living in a high cost of living area and you have to decide whether or not what works for you.
In order to make a solid decision on where the best place is for you to live, you need to know this information.
Advantages of HCOL City
Job Market is Solid
First of all, in HCOL cities, the job market is stronger, there are more jobs available, and typically those jobs have a higher paying threshold than other areas.
That is why many companies are attracted to these areas because they know the talent pool of potential employees is much stronger in high cost of living area versus other areas where there are not as many skilled workers.
Income is Higher
Since companies know they must pay their employees a fair wage living in a high cost of living area, incomes are higher to support the increased expenses.
This helps those municipalities collect more taxes, which feed back into the system to provide more for their residents.
More Opportunities
More opportunities abound in a high cost of living cities.
Not only in the job market but there is access to public amenities and conveniences. Some examples include museums, sporting events, transit, best medical services, endless entertainment options, quality restaurants, high-end shopping, and quick access to international airports.
Even better, you can find free entertainment each and every day that does not cost a penny. Here is a list of 101 things to do with no money.
There are many benefits of living in a high cost of living area just because their opportunities are endless. You will always find something to do and there is always stuff going on.
Better Schools
Typically, in your high cost of living cities, that is where you will find the better schools. This is in direct correlation to the job market and skilled workers.
These skilled workers tend to have a higher instance of college graduates and they tend to want the best for their children. As a result, the schools tend to be much better than you would find in other areas.
Higher Chance of Home Equity
Another advantage of big cities is the variety of neighborhoods you can find in a bigger city. You can find the type of house you want to live in and the diversity you crave.
While home costs are much higher, there is also a greater chance of income increasing your home equity much faster than other areas.
For example, in Michigan, you could pay $100,000 for the exact same house in 5-10 years since appreciation will not happen at the same rate as other cities. Whereas, if you look at some of the hot markets, like Denver, Phoenix, or Austin, the home prices have been skyrocketing.
Thus, if you live in those quickly appreciating housing areas, there is a higher chance to increase the value of your house.
Disadvantages Of HCOL Cities
Higher Basic Cost of Living – Specifically Housing
First, housing costs can break the bank. It is the biggest expense for any household.
If you were unable to secure a salary to justify the housing cost, it makes it nearly impossible to be able to afford to live in a high cost of living area.
This is where you would have to get creative and look for housing subsidies or other means to stretch your housing budget.
Harder to Find Houses
Another con of a high cost of living areas is it is much harder to find housing! House and rent prices are higher, jobs are tougher to find where there’s opportunities abound, and you may feel like you are searching for a needle in a haystack.
You need to have the right opportunity to find the proper house for you. If you are looking at buying, you need things to line up properly and in your favor.
Stretch Yourself Too Far Financially
Since incomes tend to be much higher, many people find the urge to spend more discretionary income.
In many cases, this means that the average household may stretch themselves a little bit further by keeping up with the Joneses. They tend to spend more frivolously and not live as frugal.
This is a trap to be aware of if you are in a high cost of living area. You can be savvy with your money and save, but you have to be cognizant of how you spend your hard-earned salary.
HCOL Cities…
These are the HCOL areas. Do you need to avoid them? No, but going into those areas, you must realize the cost of living will be higher.
Here’s a list of all of the cities that are the top 20 cities that are high cost of living areas according to Kiplinger:
1.
Manhattan, New York
(145.7% above U.S. average)
2.
San Francisco, California
(94.7% above U.S. average)
3.
Honolulu, Hawaii
(97.6% above U.S. average)
4.
Brooklyn, New York
(80.5% above U.S. average)
5.
Washington, D.C.
(60.7% above U.S. average)
6.
Seattle, Washington
(56.7% above U.S. average)
7.
Oakland, California
(53.9% above U.S. average)
8.
Arlington, Virginia
(50.5% above U.S. average)
9.
Orange County, California
(50.2% above U.S. average)
10.
Boston, Massachusetts
(48.8% above U.S. average)
11.
Queens, New York
(47.8% above U.S. average)
12.
Los Angeles, California
(46.6% above U.S. average)
13.
Bethesda, Maryland
(45.5% above U.S. average)
14.
San Diego, California
(41.4% above U.S. average)
15.
Alexandria, Virginia
(40.0% above U.S. average)
16.
Stamford, Connecticut
(36.4% above U.S. average)
17.
Portland, Oregon
(34.3% above U.S. average)
18.
Fairbanks, Alaska
(27.9% above U.S. average)
19.
Bergen County & Passaic County, NJ
(26.6% above U.S. average)
20.
Anchorage, Alaska
(24.4% above U.S. average)
Source: Kiplinger
What Is LCOL Area Mean?
LCOL stands for lower cost of living.
These cities have a lower average cost of living versus the average.
Simply put…your ability to stretch your income goes much further in a low cost area compared to a high cost of living area. This is where you can get a bigger bang for your buck.
Pros and Cons of LCOL
The differences in the area where you can live can be vastly different. Thus, providing benefits or drawbacks of choosing to live there.
The cons are typically the reasons that most people want to stay away from these cities.
This is where personal preference tends to play the biggest reason for choosing one location over another.
Just like with a high cost of living area, you need to weigh the pros and cons of living somewhere where expenses are not quite as high.
Advantages of LCOL –
Slower Pace of Life
One of the biggest benefits is a slower pace of living in low cost of living area.
Life doesn’t move as fast.
There is more time to breathe, there is more time to step back and take a bigger picture. It is not go, go, go, go 24/7. Time to enjoy the fresh air and slower pace.
Cheaper Housing
This is why people choose to live in a low cost of living area. Period.
You are able to afford much more house for much less.
That right there, over the long term can make or break somebody financially.
Lower Taxes
Many of the lower cost of living cities also benefit from lower taxes as well. They have lower income taxes, and even possibly, lower property taxes. So, this is something to take into consideration when looking at a low cost of living area.
Check what the difference would be from where you’re currently at to where you are considering moving.
Remote Work
This is the bread and butter spot! When you can take in a higher pay and still live in a LCOL city.
After 2020, remote work is becoming more and more popular. In addition, it is an added benefit companies are including to attract skilled employees.
This is one scenario where you can get the best of both worlds.
Disadvantages Of LCOL Cities
Less Opportunities
First of all, there are fewer opportunities. There are fewer things to do, there are less things going on. The airport is a further drive away.
In a big city, you can always find events happening. It may not be the same in other cities. However, some cities have created programs to draw in residents with the big city feel like Bellefontaine, Ohio.
Income Potential is Lower
The job market doesn’t have the high-paying jobs that you would find in the bigger cities. The income potential in one of these cities does not compare.
Let’s face it… a good majority of your working years are about built around making an income. With a lower cost of living city, the income limitations can be cumbersome and it takes longer to be able to reach your financial goals.
LCOL States and Countries with LCOL
Geographic arbitrage can give you great value for your money.
Arbitrage is the spread of differing prices for the same thing like rent, food, or transportation.
This means you can save more money by living in LCOL state or spend less of your nest egg by living in a LCOL countries.
These are the areas you can find the lower cost of living. There are many LCOL cities to be found as well.
LCOL States:
1.
Mississippi
(84.10% of U.S. average)
2.
Kansas
(86.67% of U.S. average)
3.
Oklahoma
(88.09% of U.S. average)
4.
Alabama
(88.80% of U.S. average)
5.
Arkansas
(89.16% of U.S.average)
6.
Georgia
(89.30% of U.S. average)
7.
Tennessee
(89.49% of U.S. average)
8.
Missouri
(89.75% of U.S. average)
9.
Michigan
(90.54% of U.S. average)
10.
Indiana
(90.57% of U.S. average)
Source: US News
LCOL Countries:
Listed in alphabetical order because there are many to chose from based on your personal preferences.
The definition of MCOL is any area that just has an medium cost of living.
There is not one extreme or another. These cities are just plain average. Maybe slightly above or below the median cost of living.
This can be a sweet spot of reaching your financial goals while enjoying a higher quality of life.
Benefits of MCOL Area
As you can read on Reddit personal finance threads, there are plenty of reasons to live in an MCOL area.
Mostly because these types of cities you can get the best bang for your buck, and still have the pros of living in a high cost of living area, as well as the pros of living in a low cost of living area.
This is where the job market may be very stable with good wages but the cost of living is not going to cost you a fortune.
Also, you can find tons of cities that meet the criteria of a MCOL city.
Cost of Living Varies within Cities
Regardless of whether you choose, HCOL, LCOL, or MCOL areas, the cost of living will be dramatically different between these cities.
Whether you are looking at the downtown area, the outlying suburbs, or maybe even the cities that have popped up around near the main city.
Just because the city is HCOL or LCOL, there will be neighborhoods that will be the outliers to the main part of the city.
So, when you are looking at cost of living, you must know the things that are most important to you and what type of neighborhood that you would want to live in because they can be found.
That is what I call hidden gems.
It is possible to find a cheaper house in a low cost of living or high cost of living area, you just have to do your homework and know what you’re looking for.
Vice versa, it is very possible to find a neighborhood in a low cost of living area that is much higher than the surrounding areas.
How can I buy a house in a high cost of living?
It is possible to be a homeowner in a in a high cost of living area. You just have to be able to afford the down payment on the house to make being a homeowner justifiable, if possible.
Before you decide to buy a house, here are some factors you need to take into consideration..
1. Does it make sense?
First, you have to make sure that it makes logical sense to buy a house. Especially in a high cost of living area because the house prices may not match up to what the income that you are bringing in.
Will you still be able to reach your money goals by purchasing a house? Or will you be house poor?
2. Compare rent to potential mortgage
Will it be cheaper to rent? Or cheaper to have a mortgage?
To figure this out, take what the average rent is in your neighborhood. Then, use a mortgage calculator to figure out the maximum amount you can afford.
Since those calculators will leave you house poor. Decide what you are able to justify in spending on a mortgage and figure out what the mortgage payment is.
Is the mortgage payment less than average rent in the area?
For example, it may cost in a high cost of living area, like San Diego, it may cost $3,000 a month to rent a house. Whereas you might be able to buy a similar home in the same neighborhood and have your mortgage payment of $2,259.
Thus, making buying makes more financial sense than continuing to rent.
3. Expand your horizons
Another tip to afford your dream house – do not be set on that one specific neighborhood in a high cost of living area.
Many times you can find an up-and-coming neighborhood that is much less than the trendier and hip current neighborhoods that you want to live in.
Thus, you can typically save a good chunk of money. Plus in the long run, you greatly increase the potential for home equity.
4. New Homebuyer Programs
If this is the first time you are buying a house, then look into first-time homebuyer programs and grants. (Hint… this is like free money!)
There are many out there because cities want their residents to buy in their neighborhood and their cities because that means they are going to be there for a longer-term.
Also, there are programs for the military, teachers, nurses, single moms, minorities, graduate students. You just have to look.
5. Save for Down Payment
When you are looking at buying a house, this is the time to become serious about saving for a down payment.
You may have to find ways to save more money each month.
This could include things like downsizing your lifestyle to make it possible. Living with friends or family while you save up more money. Or just spending less for a certain period of time until you reach your downpayment goal.
6. House Hacking
The last step is one of the best ways to reach financial independence in a high cost of living city. Plus the concept works well in any city… house hack.
Find a multi-family housing property that you were able to buy. For example, plan to live on one side of the duplex and rent out the other. This will help you pay for your mortgage, by using the rent collected from your renters.
Thus, lowing your overall housing cost, which is your biggest expense.
Where Does Your Income Go the Furthest?
This is a comparison that you may be surprised by the outcome. Thus, proving why you need to do cost comparisons to see what financially makes the most sense when deciding to move from one to the other area.
comparison of income, expenses, taxes, and potential savings!!!!!!!!!!!
Once again, this is personal to your situation. So, take a moment and use the cost of living calculator yourself.
Paying taxes is one option to increase what you take home in each paycheck.
No Income States
These are the states that don’t pay state income taxes on wages:
Alaska
Florida
Nevada
New Hampshire
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Washington
Wyoming
For most people, that is an instant decrease in overall taxes!
Higher Taxed States
Also, if you live in one of the higher taxed states, then you may want to reconsider moving to a lower cost of living area.
The higher taxes income tax states include:
California
Hawaii
New Jersey
Oregon
Minnesota
The District of Columbia
New York
Vermont
Iowa
Wisconsin
These states tax income somewhere between 7.65% – 13.3%.
Property Taxes
Property taxes vary from state to state.
In some states with large property taxes, it may even out with no income taxes. While other states, like Illinois, where property taxes are high and income taxes are above the national average as well.
Moving From HCOL to LCOL
The reason that most people move from HCOL to LCOL area is to save money. They want to decrease their expenses – that is the primary driver. Other times, it may be that they’re looking for a different type of lifestyle.
But as you can read on Reddit, everybody has a different personal experience.
It may have been beneficial and may have been bad timing. It may have been the best choice. It may have been the worst decision.
Make sure to factor in the costs associated with the move. Also, any ongoing expenses like travel if you are moving away from family.
How to Choose HCOL or LCOL?
Deciding where you live is one of the most personal decisions that you can make. Nobody can make it for you. You know what you want in life, how you want to live, and where you would feel more comfortable.
So, let’s look primarily at the financial side of making this decision of what is best.
1. Lifestyle You Desire
There are massive differences between HCOL and LCOL cities!! In big cities, life moves at a faster pace. While most cheaper cities areas move at a slower pace, so you have to make the decision of what type of lifestyle.
Do you want you want the big city? Do you want suburbia? Or do you prefer more of a country lifestyle?
When looking at this first factor, your answer should not include money. This is where your heart is. This is where your home. This is the life that you plan on living. This doesn’t include the financial sense.
This includes what makes your heart happy.
2. Your Money Goals
One of the things that discussed the most on this site is the 10 Money Bliss Steps to Financial Freedom. That is where most of our readers find their current money goal. And for good reason, you must build a strong foundation with money one step at a time.
In order to achieve long term financial success, the decision on housing is critical as it is the biggest expense in any budget. And that is can have the greatest impact on your budget!
On the flip side, the amount of income you are capable of making can also make the biggest impact on what you can afford to spend.
You must decide on your current money goal as well as the longer term money vision. Maybe you are looking at wanting to retire early? Love to live a slower life in the future?
It is possible to live in HCOL area where you are able to live extremely frugally and save more money. This is what my friend did over at Tuppennys FIREplace. For them, it was a smarter decision. On the flip side, maybe you are happier living a slower pace of life. Income is not the primary driver and you just want to enjoy life more.
At the end of the day, you must prioritize what you want, how your budget and your expenses correlate, and how your saving rate is impacted in various cities.
3. Season of Life
For those in their younger years may not understand this as much, but as you go through seasons of life, you will realize that you have different goals, objectives, and desires along the way.
When deciding where to live, your current season of life will probably have a very high impact on what you are looking for.
If you have young kids, you probably want to find a neighborhood where you have other families nearby that your kids can interact with.
If you are close to retirement, you may look decide to move out of the good school district because you do not need to pay the premium of living here. You may choose to move to a lower cost of living area, so you have the freedom to travel and help my kids and grandkids.
4. Potential Income & Career Opportunities
The greatest benefit of a high cost of living area is the income potential and the career opportunities. Both are much greater in the bigger cities than you would find in the smaller cities.
If your primary goal is increasing your income and advancing your career, then looking at high cost of living areas an absolute must. Plus you might be able to find something on the outskirts of expensive neighborhoods, that would make the most financial sense.
Then, living in HCOL is justified and necessary and the income can justify the higher costs associated.
On the flip side, there is plenty of income potential as a small business owner in a low cost of living area. You just have to know the market, what your skills are in, and what the needs are in your area.
4. Fixed Expenses
Fixed expenses can be dramatically different in each area.
Write out a list of your top fixed expenses and make sure to compare those as well.
For example, child care costs and tuition are going to be much more expensive in a big city than in the suburbs. Maybe in certain neighborhoods, a car would not be needed; thus, eliminating another big cost and associated maintenance.
While some fixed expenses seem meniscal, over time, they can add up significantly. Thus, helping or hurting your financial picture.
Unspoken Price Tag to Live Somewhere
As we covered in this post, there is a lot to consider when deciding between HCOL, LCOL, or MCOL areas.
It is a highly personal decision that you must take the time to make the best decision for you!
Not someone else, but for you.
One thing to watch out for when looking at where to live is what I call the “price tag” of a beautiful city.
Many times, employers know that the city that people want to live in their city for whatever reason. Thus, you will experience what I like to call the “income hit” to living there.
For example, Fort Collins, Boulder, and Austin are highly desirable areas for postgraduates to live in because they fall in love with the town and they want to stay here for the long term. Thus, employers know that this!
As a result, income for jobs maybe 10 to 15% less than they could make in any other type of market or city. So, that is something just to be aware of when wanting to stay in the city that they have grown to love.
In conclusion, when you’re looking at a high cost of living area versus a low cost of living area, there are two sides to the coin.
One – what makes financial sense. Two – your home is where your heart is.
Consequently, you have to make the decision on what makes sense for you.
While it makes financial sense to move to a lower cost city, at the same time, it may move you away from your family and your support system, and everything that you enjoy, and you may not be as happy in the long run.
Enjoy weighing the alternatives between all of the options available.
Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!
Did the post resonate with you?
More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!
Your comments are not just welcomed; they’re an integral part of our community. Let’s continue the conversation and explore how these ideas align with your journey towards Money Bliss.
Average mortgage rates edged a little higher last Friday. But that didn’t spoil a good week during which those rates tumbled overall.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might increase. But these early mini-trends often alter speed or switch direction as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.445%
6.524%
+0.01
30-year fixed VA
6.962%
7.008%
+0.28
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.007%
7.057%
+0.01
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.774%
6.829%
+0.08
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.377%
6.455%
+0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.612%
7.913%
-0.03
30-year fixed FHA
6.907%
6.953%
+0.2
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Don’t be fooled by recent falls in mortgage rates. It may feel as if those rates have been falling more than rising, not least because they have since mid-April. But there was a sharp rise immediately before the subsequent fall. And, if you go back three months, mortgage rates were lower then than they are now.
Looking across the longer term, mortgage rates remain on an upward trajectory. But, this year, they’ve effectively been moving sideways so perhaps the upward trend is moderating or plateauing.
What we’re not seeing yet are sustained falls. And I judge the chances of falls and rises at roughly 50-50. Would you want to bet on those odds? I wouldn’t.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
Of course, don’t lock your rate when mortgage rates look likely to fall. My recommendations are based on longer trends. And, within those, there will be rate-friendly days and longer periods that you can take advantage of.
With so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes climbed to 4.29% from 4.22%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices ticked down to $79.05 from $79.07 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices decreased to $2,337 from $2,346 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched down to 38 from 40 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
This week
Seven senior Federal Reserve officials have speaking engagements today and tomorrow. And they may try to correct any misapprehensions markets still have following last Wednesday’s Fed events.
The Fed made it pretty clear then that it expected to make only one cut to general interest rates during 2024. But markets are already second-guessing that, with the CME Group finding investors reckon there’s a 70% chance of two such cuts.
That explains markets’ muted reaction to last week’s pronouncements by the Fed. They simply didn’t believe the central bank’s message.
Investors have a pretty patchy record for second-guessing the Fed. But they’re sometimes correct. If they’re right this time, that could be good for mortgage rates. But, if the Fed sticks to its guns, that could be bad for them.
Today
This morning’s lone economic report is the June Empire State manufacturing survey. I don’t remember the last time that affected mortgage rates so we shouldn’t lose any sleep over it.
There is some economic news around that could influence markets. China’s growth is slowing and its property market is in trouble. And the French snap parliamentary election is freaking out some investors as the possibility of a hard-right party taking power is regarded as economically undesirable.
But the Chinese and French news would normally be helpful to mortgage rates. So, why were those rates rising overnight?
Well, it may be that investors are jittery over tomorrow’s economic data.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow morning, we’re due May data on:
Retail sales — Markets expect sales to edge up by 0.2% from April’s 0.0%
Industrial production and capacity utilization — Markets expect industrial production also to nudge up to 0.4% from April’s 0.0%. And capacity utilization, too, is expected to improve: to 78.6% from 78.4%
So, markets are expecting those numbers to show improvements, which would normally be bad for mortgage rates. But, luckily, those expectations are already baked into mortgage rates. And it’s the gap between those and tomorrow’s actual numbers that could create volatility.
For the best chance of mortgage rates falling, we’d like to see smaller numbers than markets are expecting. Bigger ones could push those rates upward.
The rest of the week
Bond markets are closed on Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. So, mortgage rates shouldn’t move that day, and my daily report won’t appear.
I’ll brief you on Thursday and Friday’s economic reports that might move mortgage rates on the day before each appears. But most on the calendar rarely affect those rates.
If you’re hungry for more information about what’s moving mortgage rates, do click through to the latest weekend edition of this daily report. It provides a deeper analysis together with a preview of what to expect in the coming week. It’s published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. Eastern.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Jun. 13 report put that same weekly average at 6.95%, down from the previous week’s 6.99%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures. Still, they’re a good way to track trends.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the last three quarters of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 (Q2/24, Q3/24 Q4/24 and Q1/25).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on May 22 and the MBA’s on May 17.
Forecaster
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Q1/25
Fannie Mae
7.1%
7.1%
7.0%
6.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.7%
6.5%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Average mortgage rates climbed appreciably last Friday following a surprisingly (if not shockingly) strong jobs report. That day’s rise all but wiped out the falls earlier in the week, sending those rates to their highest level so far this month.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might barely budge. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.565%
6.645%
+0.03
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.05%
7.1%
+0.02
30-year fixed FHA
7.009%
7.052%
+0.26
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.632%
6.713%
+0.02
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.88%
6.935%
+0.06
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.734%
7.896%
-0.03
30-year fixed VA
7.083%
7.126%
+0.24
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I’m truly sorry that my predictions last week of higher mortgage rates imminently turned out to be correct. But my feeling is that markets aren’t ready to deliver a consistent downward trend for those rates and probably won’t be ready to do so until much later in the year. And possibly not even then.
In the meantime, of course, there will be periods of falls as well as rises. And, over time, we can reasonably hope they’ll roughly balance each other out.
I don’t see any point in betting (by floating your rate) when the chances of wining and losing are approximately equal.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
Of course, don’t lock your rate when mortgage rates look likely to fall. My recommendations are based on longer trends. And, within those, there will be rate-friendly days and longer periods that you can take advantage of.
With so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged up to 4.46% from 4.43%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices rose to $75.97 from $75.76 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices fell to $2,321 from $2,338 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Edged down to 42 from 44 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hardly move. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Super Wednesday looms
Two of the three events that are most likely to move mortgage rates are due this Wednesday. They’re:
The monthly consumer price index — A crucial inflation report
A six-weekly update from the Federal Reserve on how its plans for future cuts to general interest are evolving. This time, it could be particularly influential because it includes a quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, complete with a highly valued dot plot, as well as a news conference
I’ll brief you tomorrow on what to expect from those. Or, if you’re in a hurry, check out the weekend edition (link below). But they’d need to be exceptionally friendly toward mortgage rates to fully counteract the effects of last Friday’s jobs report.
Today and tomorrow
No economic reports are due today. So any significant change in mortgage rates is likely to be a result of either continuing momentum from last Friday or some unscheduled news story that affects the economy.
Tomorrow may be similarly uneventful. The only report due is an optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business, and that rarely affects mortgage rates.
Later in the week
We’re due the producer price index (PPI) on Thursday and the import price index (IPI) on Friday. These forward-looking inflation indicators can sometimes affect mortgage rates but usually only temporarily and in a limited way.
And the same goes for two other reports:
Weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday
The consumer sentiment index on Friday
Indeed, I suspect all reports this week will be eclipsed by Wednesday’s events.
If you’re hungry for more information about what’s moving mortgage rates, do click through to the latest weekend edition of this daily report. It provides a deeper analysis together with a preview of what to expect in the coming week. It’s published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. Eastern.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Jun. 6 report put that same weekly average at 6.99%, down from the previous week’s 7.03%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures. Still, they’re a good way to track trends.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the last three quarters of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 (Q2/24, Q3/24 Q4/24 and Q1/25).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on May 22 and the MBA’s on May 17.
Forecaster
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Q1/25
Fannie Mae
7.1%
7.1%
7.0%
6.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.7%
6.5%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday. But all that did was wipe out last Friday’s similarly tiny rise.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely budge. However, these early mini-trends often alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.302%
7.353%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.757%
6.836%
+0.01
30-year fixed FHA
7.064%
7.111%
-0.07
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.888%
8.036%
+0.12
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.199%
7.257%
+0.05
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.663%
6.737%
+0.06
30-year fixed VA
7.292%
7.332%
+0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
This morning’s Financial Times reports, “While the base case remains a reduction in borrowing costs, the options market shows a 20% probability of an increase.” That means most investors think the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates this year, but they reckon there’s a 20% chance of the central bank actually hiking them. That’s new and scary.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates it has a huge influence on the bond market that does. And I very much doubt mortgage rates will fall consistently before the Fed signals that a cut in general interest rates is imminent. And a Fed rate hike is likely to send mortgage rates much higher: maybe back up to 8% or beyond.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 4.6% from 4.64%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $81.59 from $82.06 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices fell to $2,333 from $2,350 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 40 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning’s two April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) will likely be good for mortgage rates. These “flashes” (initial readings and subject to revision) are both from S&P.
Here are this morning’s actual numbers in bold, alongside the prepublication consensus forecasts, according to MarketWatch, together with the March actual figures:
Services PMI — 50.9 actual; 52 expected; 51.7 in March
Manufacturing PMI — 51.1 actual; 52 expected; 51.9 in March
You can see that the PMIs were worse than expected, which is typically good news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s durable goods orders for March rarely affect mortgage rates. And they’d need to contain some pretty shocking data to do so tomorrow.
Markets are expecting those orders to have risen by 2.6% in March compared to a 1.3% increase in February. They’ll probably need to be significantly higher than 2.% to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates and appreciably lower to push them downward.
The rest of this week
Nothing has changed since yesterday concerning economic reports due on Thursday and Friday. So, I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday:
We’re due the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter on Thursday. And that could have a larger effect than PMIs and durable goods orders, depending on the gap between expectations and actuals.
But Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March is this week’s star report. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. And it could certainly affect mortgage rates, possibly appreciably.
The next meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is scheduled to start on Apr. 30 and last two days. So, the PCE price index will be the last inflation report it sees before making decisions.
And index that shows inflation cooling could change the mood at that meeting. True, it’s vanishingly unlikely that a cut to general interest rates will be unveiled on May 1 no matter what.
But a PCE price index that shows inflation cooling could help the Fed to move forward with cuts earlier than expected, which should cause mortgage rates to fall. Unfortunately, one that suggests inflation remains hot or is getting hotter could send those rates higher.
I’ll brief you more fully on each potentially significant report on the day before it’s published.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
The Federal Reserve’s latest semiannual financial stability report — a survey of financial professionals — found inflation and high interest rates to be respondents’ top concern. But policy uncertainty — a lack of clarity about the direction of foreign and domestic policy — was the No. 2 concern.
Bloomberg News
WASHINGTON — Inflation and uncertainty surrounding the direction of federal policy on trade, spending and other issues are banks’ top financial stability concerns, the Federal Reserve Board said in a report released Friday.
For its semiannual report on financial stability, the Fed surveyed a range of financial professionals — including broker-dealers, investment fund managers, research and advisory professionals as well as academics — about the top issues facing the financial system. Policy uncertainty emerged as a major new source of anxiety for industry experts — it was cited by 60% of respondents, up from the just 24% of respondents who cited it as a top concern in the Fed’s last survey in October 2023.
Since 2019, the Fed has issued two reports on financial stability per year, usually releasing one in the spring and another in the fall.
Persistent inflation and high interest rates remained the top concern across the board, with 72% of respondents listing it as their primary concern — the same percentage as in the October report. The report indicated that interest rates may remain elevated above current market expectations for an extended period and that persistent inflation could prompt a more stringent monetary policy, causing increased volatility in financial markets and adjustments in asset valuations.
But the rise of policy uncertainty — including unpredictability stemming from fluctuating trade policies, influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine that has lasted more than two years — was an unexpected source of market disruption for many survey respondents. Respondents also flagged the upcoming U.S. elections in November as a source of stress.
“Further escalation of geopolitical tensions or policy uncertainty could reduce economic activity, boost inflation, and heighten volatility in financial markets,” the report said. “The global financial system could be affected by a pullback from risk-taking, declines in asset prices, and losses for exposed U.S. and foreign businesses and investors.”
Concerns about the credit quality of commercial real estate — which was the No. 2 concern cited in the October report — was cited as a top concern among 56% of the survey’s respondents. But that fell from 72% in the October report. The Fed noted that prices across all sectors of CRE continued to decline in the second half of 2023, and the report makes clear the full impact of CRE price drops have yet to be reflected in the data.
“These transaction-based price measures likely do not yet fully reflect the deterioration in CRE market prices because, rather than realizing losses, many owners wait for more favorable conditions to put their properties on the market,” noted the report. “Capitalization rates at the time of property purchase, which measure the annual income of commercial properties relative to their prices, moved modestly higher but remained at historically low levels, suggesting that prices remain high relative to fundamentals.”
Banking sector instability continued to feature prominently despite the report noting high levels of liquidity and low funding risks in the sector since the October report.
While the Fed’s emergency lending facility, the Bank Term Funding Program, ceased operations on March 11, the report noted the BTFP continues to reduce liquidity pressures for depositories. The report said mostly small institutions with under $10 billion of assets — representing 95% of beneficiaries — benefited from the program.
Average mortgage rates rose very slightly yesterday. I’m afraid it’s a sign that Wednesday’s moderate fall wasn’t necessarily the start of much happier times.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today could barely budge. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.29%
7.34%
+0.03
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.744%
6.822%
+0.04
30-year fixed FHA
7.129%
7.179%
+0.21
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.682%
7.918%
-0.01
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.15%
7.207%
+0.07
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.607%
6.68%
+0.02
30-year fixed VA
7.28%
7.324%
+0.2
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I reckon it’s likely to be some months before we begin to see consistently falling mortgage rates. The economy is currently too robust and inflation is too warm for a sustained downward trend. And there are few signs of that changing until the summer or fall — or perhaps even later.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ticked lower to 4.62 from 4.63%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $82.77 from $82.98 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices rose to $2,398 from $2,393 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged down to 32 from 35 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
There are no economic reports scheduled for release today. And the words of the sole senior Federal Reserve official with a speaking engagement, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, are unlikely to affect markets. His boss, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, laid out the central bank’s position on future cuts to general interest rates as recently as Tuesday.
Of course, mortgage rates can still move on days like today. But they’re generally driven by market sentiment or occasionally by important news that affects the economy.
Next week
Next Monday is much like today: zero economic reports on the schedule. Tuesday’s purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) could produce some movement in mortgage rates. But that’s typically limited and temporary, a description that applies to Wednesday’s durable goods orders data, too.
Things could warm up next Thursday when the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter is due.
And next Friday should bring the March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. So, it can certainly affect mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. It was a modest increase by any standards but tiny by comparison with Wednesday’s big jump.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today could fall. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Our table is having technical problems. But we’re working hard to fix them.
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
30-year fixed VA
7.222%
7.262%
+0.05
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.007%
7.058%
+0.07
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.51%
6.584%
+0.09
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.127%
7.173%
+0.07
30-year fixed FHA
7.056%
7.1%
+0.09
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.64%
6.713%
+0.1
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.785%
7.888%
+0.08
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Markets have turned gloomy over the prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting general interest rates over the next few months. And that’s been pushing mortgage rates higher.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 4.50% from 4.55%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $87.42 from $85.57 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices climbed to $2,414 from $2,361 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — fell to 51 from 54 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
Two economic reports are scheduled for this morning.
The March import price index (IPI) landed at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. And that would normally be bad for mortgage rates. Markets had been expecting it to hold steady at 0.3% and it came in at 0.4%.
So, how come mortgage rates were falling first thing? Well, it’s too early to be sure. But those rates often move in the opposite direction after a sharp movement one way or the other. That’s simply markets reflecting on the change and deciding they over-reacted.
This morning’s other report isn’t due until 10 a.m. Eastern. And that means I won’t have time before my deadline to assess its likely impact on markets. They were expecting the preliminary consumer sentiment index for April to improve slightly to 79.9% from 79.4%.
A lower figure may help mortgage rates to fall while a higher one could push them upward. But this is one of those reports that rarely move those rates far unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Mortgage rates might also be affected by earnings reports later from three of the biggest U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. If they all tell a really positive story, stock market reactions could spill over into the bond market that largely determines mortgage rates.
Next week
We’ve had April’s two most important reports over the last six days. And, taken together, they were pretty bad for mortgage rates.
Next week’s reports aren’t typically as influential by a long way. But a couple of them (retail sales and industrial production) could move mortgage rates higher if they feed markets’ current pessimism over Fed rate cuts — or push them downward if they contradict it.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.88%, up from the previous week’s 6.82%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Mar. 22.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Servicing, Non-QM DSCR, RON Products; Freddie and Fannie News; Rate Cut Outlook
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Servicing, Non-QM DSCR, RON Products; Freddie and Fannie News; Rate Cut Outlook
By: Rob Chrisman
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 11:37 AM
Here in the Hill Country near Austin, Texas, there’s an active market of sellers and buyers of real estate. It is a safe bet that most use agents; around 90 percent of buyers use them, and Clever released data on average real estate commission rates in the U.S. as they stand now. Clever found that on the median-priced home of $431,000, the average U.S. home seller pays real estate commission fees of about $23,662. In a survey of 630 partner agents, the average real estate commission rate in the U.S. is 5.49 percent, divided between the listing agent (2.83 percent) and the buyer’s agent (2.66 percent). The average commission rate rose from 5.37 percent in 2023. Most real estate agents typically work within a range of 2.5 percent to 3 percent. Several key factors influence this, such as property value, client relationship & circumstances, sale complexity, services provided, and market conditions. Hawaii is home to the lowest average real estate commission rate (4.78 percent), while West Virginia has the highest (6.67 percent). (Found here after 8:30AM ET, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by PHH Mortgage. From subservicing to correspondent lending, MSR/co-issue transactions, portfolio retention, reverse mortgages, and commercial servicing, PHH has solutions for the entire mortgage lifecycle. Hear an interview with Cross Country Mortgage’s Nicole Perrone on ways lenders are expanding production and capturing market share.)
Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
ICE Mortgage Technology® customers are experiencing exciting benefits from the integration between Simplifile® and The Closing Exchange, a leading provider of notary services and order management technology. This integration supports settlement agents and lenders who wish to conduct remote online notary (RON) transactions but may not have the necessary staff or infrastructure in place to facilitate such closings. By leveraging The Closing Exchange’s extensive network of notaries, and their expertise in performing signings, customers can now drive a better borrower closing experience by seamlessly leveraging a RON notary who is already set up in Simplifile® eSign Events™. Click here to learn more.
Long-term Rental or Vacation Rental? Visio Lending is the nation’s leader in Non-QM Investor DSCR loans for buy and hold SFR rentals with nearly a decade of experience and over $2.7 billion in originations. No-DTI, 30-year terms, rate buy downs, free 45-day rate locks; I/O and Sub-1 DSCR options available. Now choose your own title company (including on refinances). Through our top-notch Broker Program, brokers are able to earn up to 2 points YSP, and 5 points total. Visio Brokers can count on a designated Account Executive and in-house processing.
Understanding what you’re up against in this economy is paramount for every originator. You need to find opportunity, and we want to help you do just that. Join us Thursday, April 25 at 2 p.m. Eastern for a roundtable discussion featuring MAXEX President, COO and Co-founder Bill Decker, South Street Securities Managing Director Buck Thompson and AmeriVet Securities Head of U.S. Rates Greg Faranello. We’ll dive into the current headwinds, where customers are finding success and how you can break away from the traditional business as usual to build a more resilient foundation for the future. Register today to join the discussion.
Servicing Products
How does Servbank maintain such low delinquency rates? Because Servbank identifies and addresses delinquency risk before it has a chance to grow. They utilize their leading-edge technology to drive precise customer outreach and combine it with caring specialists, who work in partnership with customers to achieve positive resolutions. Together, this combination of people and tech, allows Servbank to stay ahead of the DQ curve, not to mention the rest of the market. And when delinquencies are kept low, everybody wins: It’s good for homeowners, the communities they live in, and you, the lender, by reducing your servicing advances, resulting in more monthly cash flow for you. Servbank blends the best of human – and tech-powered service to create excellence with superior performance. Learn more here.
DOWN TO THE ROOTS OF DARA CLAIMS. Dara by Sagent is a unified platform that includes a complete suite of tools for default servicing, and this is where Dara Claims makes a positive impact. It’s the first-of-its-kind tool designed to improve recoverability while reducing risk and cost. Integrating automation and real-time data to simplify the claims process helps reduce manual data entry for servicers, opening up the opportunity to focus on nurturing stronger relationships with homeowners. For a deep dive into all things Dara Claims, read our blog here.
Fannie and Freddie Updates
Given that the lion’s share of mortgages is underwritten to Freddie & Fannie’s guidelines, or are processed to their guidelines, or are sold to them either directly or via a correspondent investor, the changes they make are closely followed.
Fannie Mae posted the March Appraiser Quality Monitoring (AQM) list.
Fannie Mae is taking a phased approach to Uniform Loan Delivery Dataset (ULDD) Phase 5 implementation to allow lenders time to begin providing new and updated values prior to the July 28, 2025, mandate. Refer to its new implementation guide for important transition information.
Freddie Mac Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide Bulletin 2024-4 announced updates pertaining to Manufactured Home certification requirements as well as other updates that can impact your business and our borrowers.
On April 5, Fannie Mae updated its Selling & Servicing Guide pages to improve the user experience, with enhancements to content navigation and search functionality. These enhancements do not impact the Selling & Servicing Guide content or layout. While the Guide URLs and redirects will remain active until January 2025, bookmarks should be updated as soon as possible after April 5. View Fannie Mae’s Enhancements to Your Selling & Servicing Guide Experience.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) announced the timeline and scope for the Uniform Closing Dataset (UCD) v2.0 Specification updates, and postponed UCD critical edits Phase 4 and 3B requirements.
Capital Markets
Bond yields hit 2024 highs to open the week with inflation in focus as investors continue to walk back interest rate cut expectations in the wake of Friday’s robust March NFP data. As a reminder, March’s jobs report was yet another this year that exceeded economists’ expectations and saw the prior two months of data revised upward. Monthly job gains in the first quarter of 2024 averaged 276,333 compared to last year’s 251,083 monthly average. The continued strength in the labor markets means policy makers at the Federal Reserve have little incentive to lower the target for the fed funds rate.
The robust March payrolls report continues to weigh on bond markets as it means that any change to Fed policy will be likely pushed back to later in the year. The front-end of the yield curve was more reactive to changing rate cut expectations yesterday than the long-end, though rate cut expectations will be a moving target the next couple of days with the release of the March Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and March Producer Price Index on Thursday. CPI will be the most closely watched, and the headline number is expected to tick slightly higher to a 3.4 percent annualized rate compared to the previous report’s 3.2 percent. This would be the highest rate of inflation since December. The core is expected to come in at a 3.7 percent clip, down from 3.8 percent in February.
“Fed speak” lately has been hawkish, and the sentiment for rate cuts seems to be fading fast. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari last week raised the possibility of rate hikes if inflation doesn’t continue to work its way lower, while Fed Governor Bowman declaring that progress on inflation “has stalled,” and Dallas president Logan added to the malaise when she declared it “much too soon” to think about rate cuts. Gasoline prices rose again in March as OPEC+ producers extended supply cuts, the Middle East conflict threatened to broaden, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, and U.S. crude production leveled off near a record high. Nothing here points to a near-term rate cut, and investors have decreased their forecasts of Fed rate cuts this year to two as the most likely outcome, their most pessimistic outlook since late October. June fed funds futures now see slightly less than a 50-50 chance of a cut.
Today’s calendar began before the open with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. Later today brings Redbook same store sales for the week ending April 6, and Treasury auctions that will be headlined by $59 billion 3-year notes. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices better by about .125 and the 10-year yielding 4.39 after closing yesterday at 4.42 percent; the yield curve inversion continues with the 2-year at 4.77.
Employment
Be The Key at Movement! Movement Mortgage’s new Be the Key program empowers loan officers and realtors to serve the Black community. Collectively we are unlocking the doors to homeownership, equity, and generational wealth across the country. Be the Key is part of Movement’s over-arching Grab the Key program, which also includes Grab the Key, Jr. These programs offer consumers and young students educational classes, community events and practical mortgage resources. For more information on these programs and how Movement’s diversity lending initiatives equip loan officers in a unique way, contact Montell Watson or visit grabthekey.com. Be a part of the change. Be the key.
Banner Bank, a top performing and globally recognized financial institution, has a unique opportunity for a VP, Mortgage Servicing Director in Southeast Washington. This part of the country offers breathtaking views of the panoramic wine country, a temperate climate, and some of the best outdoor opportunities in the West. Banner is seeking a visionary expert in Mortgage Loan Servicing with superior knowledge of the technical landscape and outstanding leadership experience. The role is relocation approved. To apply visit, Banner Careers. Resumes should be submitted there, but any questions should be directed to Ken Larsen, EVP & Mortgage Banking Director.
Canopy Mortgage is making waves nationally, with a rapid influx of high-performing loan officers, averaging one every other day. What’s the draw? It’s their streamlined corporate structure, integrated proprietary technology, unique profit and loss model, and empowering ethos highlighted by Forbes. This growth is fueled by strong relationships and referrals, establishing Canopy as a leader in mortgage lending innovation. Haven’t heard of Canopy yet? Ask around or reach out to Josh Neumarker at 888-696-9076 for a Tech Demo or consultation.
NAN (Nationwide Appraisal Network) is pleased to announce the appointment of William “Bill” Waltenbaugh, SRA, AI-RRS, as its new Chief Appraiser. With a distinguished career spanning over three decades in the property valuation industry, Bill brings a wealth of expertise and leadership to his new role. Bill is eager to collaborate with the NAN team and like-minded professionals to drive innovation and elevate industry standards. His leadership will be invaluable as NAN continues to enhance their services and drive growth. Bill will leverage his extensive experience and deep industry knowledge to advance NAN’s commitment to technology, communication, and accountability. He is deeply passionate about the evolution of the valuation industry, with a keen focus on product development and modernization. His appointment as Chief Appraiser underscores NAN’s commitment to excellence and innovation in the property valuation industry. NAN looks forward to continued success and growth under his leadership.
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Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. Unfortunately, it was the sixth consecutive business day on which they’ve risen.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely move. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter speed or direction as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
Unchanged
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.57%
6.61%
-0.04
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.16%
7.19%
+0.02
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.63%
6.66%
-0.05
30-year fixed FHA
6.51%
7.19%
Unchanged
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
-0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.3%
7.39%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve events (see below) could make a big difference to mortgage rates in the near and medium terms. But, right now, I’m pessimistic about our seeing a sustained downward trend until the summer. And some wonder if the fall might be a more realistic timeframe.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady again at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $83.18 from $81.35 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,156 from $2,159 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — dropped to 69 from 75 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Tomorrow
I covered yesterday the three Federal Reserve events due early tomorrow afternoon:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
I’ll brief you more fully on those tomorrow morning. That way you’ll know what to look out for before it’s too late to act.
Personally, I’m not very hopeful about the impact of the Fed’s events on mortgage rates. Of course, I can’t be sure what they’ll bring. But recent economic data has likely reinforced the central bank’s natural caution. And I suspect that it may signal later and fewer cuts in general interest rates this year than markets have been expecting.
If I’m right, that could be seriously bad for mortgage rates. So, let’s hope I’m wrong.
Today and later in the week
I’ll be surprised if today’s economic reports move mortgage rates much. They cover February’s housing starts and building permits. It’s not that those data are unimportant. However, they rarely attract the attention of the investors who largely determine mortgage rates.
We have to wait until Thursday for a couple of reports that sometimes affect mortgage rates. They’re two March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One is for the services sector and the other covers manufacturing. I’ll brief you on those tomorrow morning.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.