Mortgage rates have hit a 20-year record high, but buyers are still eager to purchase homes in South Bend, Indiana.
“People want to buy a house even though the interest rates are up right now,” said Jan Lazzara, a real estate agent who has worked in St. Joseph County for more than two decades. “As long as we’re not overpriced, we’re seeing multiple offers.”
Although mortgage rates are slowing the home market across the country, buyers still face competition in South Bend due to limited inventory.
The South Bend-Mishawaka area placed ninth for best emerging housing markets, according to the Wall Street Journal and Realtor.com. The summer ratings indicate areas with appreciating home prices, a strong local economy and attractive lifestyle amenities.
Many cities which placed in the top of the rankings were affordable Midwestern cities. South Bend is no exception. According to Realtor.com, the median housing price in South Bend was about $188,000 in July 2023, compared with a national median housing price of more than $400,000 this year, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Generally speaking, I expect home prices in South Bend to be lower than most of the country,” said John Stiver, a Notre Dame finance professor who teaches macroeconomics.
After a 11-year incline, housing prices in the U.S. began falling on an year-over-year basis this April. In South Bend-Mishawaka, prices are still increasing, though not as quickly as in 2022. Between the second quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2022, the South Bend-Mishawaka all-transactions housing price index increased 9.2%, the slowest year-over-year increase since the beginning of 2021, according to data from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency and the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
“It looks like the rate of change of prices is going down,” Stiver said about South Bend-Mishawaka.
The average South Bend home value at the end of July was 4.6% higher than the same time last year, according to a Zillow report. The majority of homes in South Bend were sold for equal to or more than asking price in August, according to a Rocket Homes report.
“It’s been wonderful, one of my busiest years yet,” Lazarra said about the market. “The problem that we’re having is that there’s not a lot of inventory.”
Across the nation, housing inventory is down about 8%, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. In the South Bend-Mishawaka area, housing inventory decreased about 5% between August 2022 and August 2023.
Due to record-high mortgage rates, many existing homeowners don’t want to put their homes on the market and give up low interest rates.
“People are afraid to list because they have a low interest rate,” Lazzara said.
But the high interest rates aren’t strangling buyer demand.
On a home she listed last week, Lazzarra received three overbid offers in less than a couple days. Another one of her listings received 27 offers.
She said a large portion of demand is from first-time home buyers looking for homes in the $150,000 to $300,000 price range. Many are moving to St. Joseph County for jobs at Notre Dame and the local hospitals.
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of South Bend and St. Joseph County remained relatively unchanged between April 2020 and July 2022.
Even though the local population is not increasing and the costs of borrowing are high, limited inventory is keeping prices high. For those who are moving, finding a home near South Bend is difficult.
Tim Travis, chief executive for a local medical foundation, closed on a home in Granger, Indiana in March 2023. Travis, his wife and three sons moved from Louisville, Kentucky because of a job promotion that came with a significant moving package.
“I couldn’t have moved up here and benefited from it for less than $100,000 probably,” Travis said.
Although Travis traded a 3% mortgage rate for a rate of about 5%, he said the promotion justified the higher mortgage payments.
Still, “it would make a huge difference in my mortgage payment if rates came down,” he said. “I’d like to put those couple hundred dollars towards something else.”
Last spring, Travis had a hard time finding homes for sale, especially in his desired school districts. Travis moved to Indiana in November 2022 before his family joined up with him. He spent months looking for the right home.
“I was on it two to three days a week. It was like a second job, looking for housing,” he said. “It’s like going into a department store to look for clothes, and there’s no clothes.”
When he finally found a 5-bedroom, 5,400 square foot home in a school district his family liked, he quickly put in a competitive offer just under $600,000.
Travis got the house. He also gained a deeper understanding of limited housing inventory in St. Joseph County.
“The interesting thing about it all is that the housing supply has gone down because people can’t move,” Travis said. “I wouldn’t want to be looking right now,” he said a few months after his March 2023 closing.
Tags: home market, housing inventory, local economy, Mishawaka, mortgage, mortgage rates, Realtor.com, South Bend, St. Joseph County, Zillow
At the height of the Great Depression In 1932, Ole Kirk Christiansen, a Danish carpenter, had fallen on hard times. With few jobs available, he began crafting wooden toys in his workshop to make ends meet for his wife and three boys. It was a humble beginning for what would become one of the most iconic and beloved brands by people all over the world.
In the early years, the company produced a wide variety of dozens of wooden toys—yo-yos, model airplanes, toy trucks. But after a factory fire destroyed their wood supply and production facilities, the company began experimenting with a new type of material — plastic. Two years later, a simple and versatile “automatic binding brick” was born with great success.
By the 1950s, the company began narrowing its focus, discontinuing non-brick toys until only the little plastic brick remained as its core product. It was this pivotal decision that laid the foundation for building a toy empire.
Those tiny plastic bricks became the ubiquitous toy that kids played with and parents stepped on for decades to come.
By honing in on its most popular core product, Lego was able to rise from being an “all size fits no one” company, to a toy empire that provides fun and familiarity for kids to build and create.
Within these blocks lies a big lesson for Realtors and teams — focus.
To achieve endless success, Lego discovered that its iconic bricks were all it needed to succeed, and Realtors must apply the same logic, finding motivated people to serve is the product.
Each week, I meet with the most successful Realtors in the nation. What I find separates the good from the most wildly profitable and helpful, is their flirtation with that tempting mistress— distraction. In a noisy industry full of pandering proptechs, influencer marketing, costly seminars and TikTok, it’s hard to be Lego.
The successful teams that are often trying to break through the messy middle, always tell me that ‘selling real estate is simple’. But when it comes to leading people, I find that’s where they tell me that complexity really sets in. So recently, at Livian Mastermind I asked Gary Keller what he thought about the simple differences between selling and leading.
His answer? “It’s all simple.”
“Once you decide to succeed through others, you and your people are doing the same thing. It looks exactly the same.” Keller said. “How many agents hitting their goals, on your team, do you have to have to hit your goals? Then, each day go look for motivated people that you want to help be successful. That’s it. It’s all simple.”
The road to success is simple for both agents and leaders. It is built one brick at a time by focusing on finding and helping motivated people achieve their goals while ignoring all of the other toys.
Eric Forney is vice president and director of industry relations for LIvian.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
To contact the author of this story: Eric Forney at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tracey Velt at [email protected]
California is known for its varied, lush landscapes, rich history, and high quality of life. It has 16 climate zones, ranging from dry desert basins and coastal hills, to snowy peaks and ancient forests. There’s a climate for everyone in California, which has made it a very appealing place to live.
Weather patterns generally range from mild and wet in coastal metros like San Francisco, to more dry and extreme in southern and mountainous cities like Palm Springs and Truckee. However, weather can often turn into natural disasters like flooding, heat waves, and wildfires. When these happen, it’s essential to be prepared. So what are the most common natural disasters in California, how are they changing, and what can you do to prepare? Whether you’re planning a move to San Diego or are looking at apartments in San Jose, read on for everything you need to know.
1. California wildfires
Wildfires are the major disaster in California and have catastrophic impacts. They are by far the most common and destructive type of disaster in the state, and most years, California leads the nation in wildfires and acres burned. Most recently, the August Complex and Dixie Fires burned nearly 2 million acres.These fires cost hundreds of millions of dollars to fight, and created dangerous air quality across the Western US.
California is also unique in how frequently fires affect people’s homes. From 2000-2019, over 70% of people living within the perimeter of wildfires in the US lived in California. Additionally, according to data from First Street Foundation, 71% (8.15 million) of properties in the state are at risk of being affected by wildfires.
The state’s dry season from spring through late autumn, combined with parched forests throughout the state, sets the stage for devastating fires that can spread incredibly quickly. Prolonged drought, heat waves, and windy weather are the primary causes of wildfires, which are becoming increasingly common as climate change progresses. Aging electrical infrastructure also plays a role.
Wildfires can also devastate landscapes and hillsides, making them more susceptible to flooding, landslides, and mudslides.
How to prepare for wildfires in California
If you’re planning on moving to California or already live in the Golden State, preparing for wildfires is essential. Here are key tips to help:
Create a defensible space around your property by removing flammable materials and trimming or removing dry vegetation.
Develop an emergency plan that includes evacuation routes and a communication strategy.
Install interior and exterior sprinkler systems, if you have access to enough water.
Install a generator to keep the power running in case of power outages.
Stay updated on fire weather forecasts and follow all fire restrictions.
Prepare for poor air quality by purchasing an air purifier and installing HEPA air filters on air conditioning units.
Assemble an emergency kit with essentials and valuable documents.
Ensure your insurance adequately covers fire damage, or, if the rising premiums are too high, understand the risks of going uninsured. Unfortunately, due to more frequent disasters, high interest rates, and a desire for less regulation, many insurance companies are no longer offering insurance to homeowners in California.
Collaborate with your community to prevent fires. This is the most successful way to mitigate fire risk in your neighborhood.
2. California drought
Drought has been a severe issue in California for decades. From 2011 to 2022, the issue was extremely acute as reservoirs were drying up, prompting many water conservation regulations. California is one of many Southwestern states dealing with a megadrought that has plagued the region since 1990, primarily due to rising average temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall.
However, because of record snowfall and a wet spring in 2023, most of California is no longer experiencing a drought. That said, this will likely be short-lived due to climate change, chronic groundwater overuse, and a declining Colorado River.
Droughts differ from other natural disasters because they are often long-term events, rather than flooding or snowstorms that will generally pass in a day to a few weeks. However, the effects can be dramatic and significantly alter daily life. For example, some towns in the San Joaquin Valley have no access to fresh water and must rely on private companies and bottled water.
Droughts can also increase the frequency and severity of other disasters, such as forest fires, dust storms, and heat waves.
How to prepare for drought in California
Because drought has already existed in California for decades, it’s important to adapt your lifestyle to accommodate lower water use and prepare for future restrictions. For example:
3. California flooding
California is known for its pleasant weather, but it’s actually very prone to flooding. In fact, from 1950-2017, floods prompted the second most disaster declarations, after wildfires. Floods have also affected people; 23% of properties in California have a chance of being severely damaged by flooding in the next 30 years.
A large portion of California is susceptible to flooding because much of it lies in an old lakebed and subsequent drainage areas. For example, a large portion of the Central Valley lies in an ancient lakebed that helped drain the Sierra Nevadas. Due to urbanization, dams, and agriculture, the lake was slowly drained and parts of it remain as dangerous floodplains during wet years.
In California, flooding is generally caused by dramatic rainfall, dam failures, snowmelt, and high tides. Most recently, from October 2022 to March 2023, California was battered by 31 atmospheric rivers, bringing record rainfall and snowpack to the state. While this dramatically improved the state’s drought outlook, it caused flooding and widespread damage. Flooding continued into the spring as the massive snowpack began to melt.
Climate change is causing precipitation in California to fall more irregularly but intensely, leading to more flooding.
How to prepare for flooding in California
Flood risks are different throughout the state, and preparation varies depending on where you live. For example, San Francisco and Sacramento are more susceptible to riverine flooding and levee failure, while Los Angeles is prone to flash flooding. Regardless, here are a few tips to help you prepare for floods:
Review the flood risk map for your area to see your potential risks.
Consider flood insurance if you’re in a high-risk zone.
Keep emergency supplies on hand, including non-perishable food, water, medications, and important documents.
Elevate valuable items in flood-prone areas of your home, and install sandbags or barriers if necessary.
Stay tuned to weather forecasts and alerts, and have a communication plan with your family.
4. California landslides and mudslides
Landslides pose a significant risk to homeowners in California. They are a particularly bad natural disaster in regions with steep terrain, on the coast, and areas that have been affected by wildfires. Factors such as heavy rainfall, earthquakes, rapid snowmelt, and even construction or excavation can trigger landslides. Mudslides are similar to landslides and can develop in tandem or on their own after heavy rainfall or snowmelt. Importantly, mudslides are generally caused by weather events, as opposed to landslides which can be caused by naturally shifting rock.
Many areas of Southern California are at a higher risk of landslides and mudslides due to more severe fires followed by heavier rains. And as the fire season gets longer and the rainy season gets shorter but more intense, this is expected to worsen. Small landslides will now likely occur throughout the state every year, while major landslides are expected every 10-13 years.
How to prepare for mudslides in California
The most important part of preparing for a landslide is thinking ahead and familiarizing yourself with the landscape. Importantly, don’t build a home or structure near steep slopes, close to mountain edges, or along natural erosion valleys. This helps you minimize your risk without retrofitting or additional procedures. Here are some additional tips to help:
Consult a professional for retrofitting, such as flexible pipe fittings.
Plant ground cover on slopes, and build retaining walls around your property.
Build channels or deflection walls to direct mudflow around your home. However, if you build walls that direct flow into a neighbor’s property, you may be liable for damages.
Consider purchasing additional insurance coverage, as standard homeowners insurance policies generally don’t cover damage from landslides or mudslides. If the landslide was the result of an earthquake or flooding, earthquake insurance or flood insurance may cover it.
Stay alert during periods of heavy rain or seismic activity and follow any warnings from local authorities.
Recognize warning signs, such as new or widening cracks in your home’s structure, bulging ground, or unusual sounds.
5. California snowstorms and blizzards
Winter storms and blizzards are significant concerns in California, especially in the Sierra Nevadas. Recently, in February and March 2023, a string of storms brought many feet of snow to a majority of the state, prompting blizzard warnings throughout the state, including San Diego and Los Angeles counties. However, even though the storms were destructive, they helped increase the state’s snowpack to a record high.
In California, snowstorms often come from atmospheric rivers hitting the tall Sierra Nevada mountains. Sometimes, storms can also affect the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountains. These can bring many feet of snow over the course of a few hours to days, leading to road closures, power outages, downed trees, stranded travelers, and limited access to emergency services.
Snowstorms can also turn into blizzards, which means that there are high sustained winds and low visibility (below ¼ of a mile for at least three hours).
How to prepare for snowstorms and blizzards in California
Preparing for severe winter weather events is crucial to ensuring your safety and minimizing impact on your home and family. Here are a few tips to help you prepare for winter:
The first thing you should do is winterize your home by inspecting your roof, clearing gutters, cleaning your chimney, insulating your attic, checking your heating system, and insulating your pipes.
Update your emergency kit to include extra warmth.
Keep a supply of firewood or alternative heating sources in case the power goes out.
Equip your vehicle with chains, extra blankets, a shovel, and emergency supplies.
Stay updated on weather forecasts and make sure you have a reliable method of communication.
6. California earthquakes
Earthquakes are a major risk in California. The state is home to over 15,700 fault lines, and many regions experience dozens of tiny earthquakes every day. If you move to the state, you’ll likely live within 30 miles of an active fault zone. Additionally, many Californians are anxiously awaiting the next “Big One,” which is predicted to occur along the southern section of the San Andreas Fault and would likely be devastating.
There have been 16 notable earthquakes since 2010, with the most recent being the Ferndale quake in 2022. The California State Government offers an interactive map that shows all fault lines in the state, along with cities at risk. If you’re planning on moving to California and want to avoid areas at risk of shaking, use this map to help.
How to prepare for earthquakes in California
Earthquakes are irregular but destructive and can cause significant damage to structures, utilities, and water systems. Main shocks can last for minutes, while aftershocks can last for years. They can also strike suddenly, at any time, with only seconds of warning, so preparing your home is critical. Here are a few tips to help:
Purchase earthquake insurance to cover some losses in the event of a quake. This is a separate policy that you purchase in addition to regular homeowners’ insurance. It’s also available to renters.
Download the MyShake App and make sure you have a durable, charged communication device in case of an emergency.
If you rent, ask your landlord about the building’s seismic history.
Practice drop, cover, and hold on, so you are ready when a quake hits.
Keep your emergency kit stocked, updated, and accessible.
Anchor heavy items to the wall, strap down expensive electronics, and secure small valuables.
Brace your water heater according to state law
Ensure your gas lines have flexible connections.
If you live in a house built before 1980, it will likely need to be retrofitted. Don’t do this yourself; hire a seismic retrofitting professional.
If you live near the coast, you should also prepare for a possible tsunami following an earthquake. Understand your evacuation routes and be on the watch for official warnings.
Final thoughts on natural disasters in California
California’s climate is known as the land of extremes. Winter storms, summer heat, earthquakes, landslides, drought, wind, and more make it a varied and unpredictable place to live. While it has historically been one of the top migration destinations, recently, it’s a state many people are moving out of (partly due to the high cost of living in coastal cities). Because of this, the state’s population has declined by over 1.5% since 2020.
If you’re considering moving to California or already call the Golden State home, make sure you’re prepared for natural disasters and long-term weather events. Understanding your risks and adequately preparing are helpful to make the most out of living in California. The National Weather Service also offers an experimental map that shows all forecasted risks for the upcoming seven days.
Lastly, many natural disasters are worsened by climate change.So no matter how you prepare, reducing your carbon footprint and fighting for systemic change are the best long-term solutions.
This article is for informational purposes only. Individual results may vary. This is not intended as a substitute for the services of a licensed and bonded home services or disaster prevention professional. Always seek expert advice and follow all official guidance before, during, and after a disaster.
Today’s mortgage rates remain at levels that are much higher than most of the past few decades, but refreshingly lower than most of the past 3 weeks. The average lender was just a hair higher, officially, but the average borrower will not see any difference in today’s vs yesterday’s rate quotes.
As for culprits behind the bigger picture surge and the smaller picture recovery, most of the measurable blame falls on data. Sure, we can talk about Fed stimulus and fiscal issues as root causes, but ultimately it’s the measurable increase in inflation and the measurable resilience in the economy that is keeping rates high.
It’s also been the measurable cooling in the same data that has allowed rates to ease off those highs in recent weeks. This began most noticeably with last week’s PMI data (“purchasing managers indices,” which are like mini GDP readings that come out every month), but it has continued this week due to several important economic reports.
The most important report is yet to come. Tomorrow morning brings the big jobs report at 8:30am ET. That’s before the time that mortgage lenders set rates for the day, and the data has the power to drastically change trading levels in the bond market. Bottom line, rates could be significantly higher or lower tomorrow, depending on the outcome of the data, and this particular data has a long history of surprising outcomes in both directions.
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With interest rates rising over the last year, it has made it tougher and tougher for real estate investors and owner-occupied home buyers. People need places to live whether they are rentals or personal houses and higher rates make those properties much more expensive unless someone is paying cash. While higher rates make it tougher to buy real estate that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be buying. It is extremely hard to time markets and usually, the best time to buy is when the time is right for you. A lot of people predicted a real estate crash which has not happened and I don’t expect one to either. There simply are not enough houses and high rates are making that problem worse not better.
Have high rates caused property values to decline?
There are some potential benefits to investing in real estate during a time of high-interest rates. For example, lower demand could lead to lower prices for certain properties, which could make them more affordable for investors. Additionally, rising interest rates usually indicate higher inflation which could mean rents rise faster than in a normal market. There is, however, no guarantee that either of these things happen.
We have seen prices drop in some markets like Austin but overall prices are higher now than ever before. High rates do not cause prices to drop significantly because while they lower the demand for real estate, they also lower the supply. People do not want to lose their low rate and builders slow down construction. I have personally seen lower prices on multifamily properties which is most likely caused by higher rates. There could be a few more deals available in that sector.
High rates will most likely make real estate more expensive in the long term because it decreases building. The fewer building there is, the less inventory there is, and eventually, that will catch up to us with higher prices. I would not bet on prices to decrease in the future, especially long term.
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Should you invest when interest rates are high or wait?
I think there are many more important things to consider when investing in real estate than how high rates are. Yes, they are important but not the most important thing. After all, investors have been investing in high-rate environments for decades and making money prior to 2000.
Here are some things to consider when deciding whether to invest in real estate when interest rates are high:
Does the property make money? Just because rates are higher, doesn’t mean that properties can’t make money. There could be markets or deals where a property cash flows even with higher rates.
What kind of investment are you looking for? If you are doing a live-in flip or house hack it still might make sense to buy now since you have to pay for a place to live in whether you rent or buy.
Can you get a great deal? I get great deals on every property I buy and I would miss out on many deals if I stopped investing because rates are high. Often a great deal will make you much more money than the increased lending costs high rates cause.
Do you have the cash to wait out high rates? You might be able to get great deals that don’t cash flow now, but will in the future when rents increase or rates drop. If you are financially able to handle an asset that doesn’t make much money or even loses money for a year or two it still might be worth it to buy now.
Are you flipping or holding? If you are flipping houses the high rates may not impact you as much as landlords holding property. There is still enough demand to sell houses and flippers can continue to buy and sell.
Will rates go down allowing a refinance?
I believe that eventually, rates will decrease which could allow investors to refinance their loans and reduce their rates significantly. This could turn a money loser into a money maker or turn a single into a home run. I would not bet everything you have on rates going down but it is likely at some point. The big question is when will they go down and how much will they decrease?
No one knows the answer to either of those questions but inflation has been decreasing and the Federal Reserve should stop raising rates soon. If rates stay high it will most likely push real estate prices even higher but if they lower rates quickly it could lead to a buyer frenzy and big increases in prices. There are not too many scenarios where I see prices dropping in the long term.
Conclusion
If you can get good deals that cash flow there is no reason not to be investing in real estate right now. If you can find good deals or cannot find properties that make money then it may not make sense to invest in this market. But remember, the market may not be getting investor-friendly any time soon. If you are buying as an owner occupant, it usually makes sens to buy whenever the time is right for you and not the when the market is perfect.
Even though the average interest rate for the 30-year fixed loan fell 5 basis points from last week, they remain elevated as the Federal Reserve considers another hike of its own.
The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey found the average for the 30-year FRM was 7.18% for the week of Aug. 31, down from 7.23% seven days prior. A year ago, it was at 5.66%.
Meanwhile the 15-year fixed remained unchanged at 6.55%. For the same week in 2022, the average rate was 4.98%.
“Despite continued high rates, low inventory is keeping house prices steady,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press release. “Recent volatility makes it difficult to forecast where rates will go next, but we should have a better gauge in September as the Federal Reserve determines their next steps regarding interest rate hikes.”
Between Aug. 14 and Aug. 29, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was above 4.2%, with an Aug. 22 high point of 4.36%. But while some expected spreads between Treasurys and mortgages to narrow to more normal levels, the recent movements show this has yet to happen.
Zillow’s rate tracker had an 18 basis point decrease as of mid-morning Aug. 31, to 6.88% from an average of 7.06% for the prior week.
“After reaching their highest level in more than two decades last week, mortgage rates fell this week on economic data showing more modest economic growth in the second quarter and a cooling labor market,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans, in a Wednesday evening statement. “Revisions to the second quarter estimate of economic growth, which showed a moderation in consumer spending and large downward revisions to business investment — two factors frequently pointed to as sources of strong economic activity — helped push bond yields and mortgage rates downward.”
An inflation gauge the Federal Reserve looks at in its decision making process, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, rose 3.3% annually in July, higher than June’s 3% increase but still lower than 3.8% in May and 4.3% in April.
Besides investors reaction to this data, mortgage rate volatility will be driven by Friday’s monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
At noon Thursday, following the PCE announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield was down 3 basis points to 4.09%.
“Signs of a cooling labor market also helped rates trend lower this week,” Divounguy said. “Labor demand is still far above pre-pandemic norms but is slowly easing: Job openings fell in June to their lowest level since March 2021.”
For years, residents in Solano County heard about a mysterious group buying up thousands of acres of farmland and making millionaires out of property owners. The agricultural land had been owned by the same families for decades — some of it for more than a century.
But the company, Flannery Associates, did not say what its plans were for the land, dotted with towering wind turbines and sheep grazing on pastureland. It paid several times market value and made offers on properties that were not for sale, according to officials familiar with the land purchases.
Then, last week, a survey was sent to residents asking them what they thought about “a new city with tens of thousands of new homes, a large solar energy farm, orchards with over a million new trees, and over ten thousand acres of new parks and open space,” according to a screenshot of the survey shared with the Los Angeles Times.
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That’s when it became clear that Flannery Associates had big plans for the rural landscape.
Over a five-year period, the company became the largest landowner in Solano County after purchasing more than 55,000 acres of undeveloped land. The company has paid more than $800 million since 2018, according to court records.
U.S. Rep. John Garamendi, who represents the region, said for years he and other officials were unable to determine who was behind the dizzying land grab. Flannery Associates has purchased land that was restricted to open space and agricultural purposes under a state conservation program.
The company seeks to rezone the land, which would require approval by multiple state and county agencies and wouldn’t be as simple as asking residents to vote on the issue, officials familiar with the process said. But the lack of residential zoning in the area does not seem to be a factor for Flannery Associates.
Since its buying jag began, the company has filed suit in federal court against a group of families the firm purchased property from, seeking $510 million. Flannery Associates claims the families conspired to inflate their property values in a scheme to get more money.
Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove) lambasted the company for how it has handled the purchases and for not working with local residents.
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“Flannery Associates is using secrecy, bully and mobster tactics to force generational farm families to sell,” Garamendi said during an informational committee hearing on Tuesday that addressed the company’s actions.
For years, residents and politicians speculated that Flannery Associates was backed by foreign investors seeking to spy on Travis Air Force Base. Located in Solano County, the base is one of the busiest military facilities in the nation. Most of the land surrounding the base is now owned by Flannery Associates, according to county documents.
Some of the company’s financial backers were revealed in an article last week by the New York Times, and they include a cadre of tech entrepreneurs and venture capitalists.
On the eastern end of Solano County, the city of Rio Vista is now surrounded by Flannery Associates land. Mayor Ronald Kott said that, like many Solano County officials, he had not been approached by anyone from the company to discuss plans for the land.
Although he’s now aware of the company’s goals and some of the financial backers, he’s still unsure how his city of 10,000 residents found itself surrounded by land owned by a group of tech billionaires.
“I have more questions than answers,” Kott said. “Our destiny is going to be determined by whatever they’re going to do.”
A cyclist rounds a curve on Montezuma Hills Road in Solano County.
(Paul Chinn / San Francisco Examiner via Getty Images)
Flannery Associates has said little since it was formed as a limited liability company in the state of Delaware in 2018. The company’s actions were first reported by ABC7’s San Francisco Bay Area news station, KGO, which said a mysterious company was purchasing large amounts of land.
Flannery Associates is led by Jan Sramek, a former Goldman Sachs investor who found fame and fortune by the time he was 22, according to a 2010 Business Insider article. Sramek previously worked out of Goldman’s offices in London, but his LinkedIn profile now lists Fairfield, Calif., in Solano County as his primary location.
In a self-help book he co-wrote, Sramek says if given the chance to give his younger self a bit of advice, he would quote Ayn Rand: “The question isn’t who is going to let me; it’s who is going to stop me.”
He did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
For years, Garamendi and U.S. Rep Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena) tried to pierce through the opaque veil that surrounded Flannery Associates. Then, in the last week, representatives of the company attempted to arrange sit-down meetings with the Congress members and the survey was sent out to residents.
The survey said that the issue of a new city might be on next year’s ballot, which was news to Garamendi and Thompson. There have been no efforts made by any groups to get a new measure on the ballot for this project, according to officials. The survey also said the developers would replace the county’s existing aqueduct — calling it “one of the most polluted in California” — generate tax revenue for schools and be entirely funded by private sector money.
Thompson said the company’s actions had raised food and national security concerns. He’s asked the U.S. Air Force, the Treasury Department, the Defense Department and the FBI to investigate the land purchases. Thompson met with representatives from the company, including Sramek, according to KGO.
“And I don’t think they had a clear understanding of the significance of livestock in Solano County,” Thompson said. “And it was my impression that they kind of pooh-poohed the agricultural value of the land.”
Garamendi plans to meet with representatives from Flannery Associates at a later time, according to his office.
Solano County Supervisor Monica Brown is not familiar with Silicon Valley and spent most of her professional career as a schoolteacher. She heard from friends who received the survey and wondered if the company had the best interests of the county’s current residents in mind.
“We’re growing food and helping people. Why would you stop economic growth like that?” she told the Los Angeles Times. “Why would they spend $800 million and not be transparent about it?”
Flannery Associates has purchased more than 140 parcels of land, according to court records and county assessor data. That number is growing every day, officials say.
But in its lawsuit, the company claims that it overpaid and is seeking to claw back some of its money.
Attorneys for Flannery Associates have referenced personal relationships and text messages among neighbors in court documents — neighbors who could be influenced, they argue, by a scheme to drive up asking prices for the land.
The lawsuit has had a chilling effect on some landowners in the Montezuma Hills and Jebson Prairie area of the county. Multiple residents in the area declined to comment about the company for fear of being named in a lawsuit.
Others who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation by the company say they feel as though Flannery Associates will target anyone who speaks out about the company’s aggressive tactics to buy land.
Garamendi called the lawsuit a “heavy-handed, despicable intimidation tactic.” He said that the company managed to purchase all the land without any of the current governmental safeguards in place to flag the issue. He said that, in the future, information about large land sales, and who is buying and selling, would be vital for lawmakers and residents.
Thompson introduced a bill that was inspired by the Flannery Associates land purchases that would provide more effective tools for state agencies to investigate large land sales.
Through a spokesperson, Flannery Associates said members of the company “care deeply about the future of Solano County and California and believe their best days are ahead.”
The company said the project aims to bring “good-paying jobs, affordable housing, clean energy, sustainable infrastructure, open space, and a healthy environment” to Solano County.
“We are excited to start working with residents and elected officials, as well as with Travis Air Force Base, on making that happen,” spokesperson Brian Brokaw said.
The company says it resorted to secrecy while purchasing the land to avoid rampant real estate speculation. But it has not disclosed specific details about the scope of its project. Representatives for Flannery Associates are meeting with community leaders to present their vision, according to Brokaw.
Michael Moritz, venture capitalist and longtime San Francisco resident, is one of the financial backers behind the company. In a 2017 email viewed by the New York Times, Moritz described an opportunity to invest in a new California city. He explained how investors could transform farmland into a bustling metropolis.
Sequoia Heritage, the $15-billion wealth management firm Moritz founded in 2010, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
But in a February New York Times opinion piece, Moritz described some of his frustration with San Francisco and how the city had become “a prize example of how we Democrats have become our own worst enemy.”
He described legislators who deceived voters with tweaks and rule changes to the city’s charter so they could stay in power and drive seismic shifts in the local government.
“The core of the issue, in San Francisco and other cities, is that government is more malleable at the city level than at higher levels of government,” Moritz wrote. “If the U.S. Constitution requires decades and a chisel and hammer to change, San Francisco’s City Charter is like a live Google doc controlled by manipulative copy editors.”
Other financial backers with Flannery Associates include LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman; Andreessen Horowitz venture capital firm investors Marc Andreessen and Chris Dixon; payments company Stripe co-founders Patrick and John Collison; Emerson Collective founder Laurene Powell Jobs; and entrepreneurs turned investors Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross, a Flannery Associates spokesperson confirmed.
Although those names were not repeated at an agricultural committee hearing on Tuesday, lawmakers were thinking of the financial backers’ actions.
Flannery Associates’ land buys threaten the makeup of eastern Solano County, mainly the land under the California Land Conservation Act, which sets aside properties for agricultural purposes and open space. The penalty for not obeying that policy does not seem to dissuade Flannery Associates, former West Sacramento Mayor Christopher Cabaldon said during the committee hearing.
The act, also known as the Williamson Act, can include a fee for the incompatible structures built on the land. For billionaire property owners, that could just be seen as the price of doing business.
“In some sense,” he said, the conservation program has “been like a flag that says, ‘Buy here.’”
The Flannery Associates project illustrates just how weak current tools are for dealing with a project of this size. Secrecy further hampers state regulators unaware of a buyer’s intent for the land, Cabaldon said.
Brokaw, the Flannery Associates spokesperson, said the company wouldn’t comment on specific issues brought up during the committee hearing but was meeting with county and state leaders to address their concerns.
Officials and landowners worry that much of the infrastructure needed to build a new city is just not present in eastern Solano County. And an influx of development would almost certainly drive out any farmers from the region.
But another scenario that could present itself is Flannery Associates moving ahead with its project only to have it fall apart years later.
“Even if the project is rejected locally … you can’t reset the clock,” Cabaldon said. “You cannot turn it back and say, ‘OK, no harm, no foul. Let’s just return to the way that this community was two years ago.’ Because the owners will be gone, the family farmers will have left.”
Times staff writers Jessica Garrison and Ryan Fonseca contributed to this report.
Arizona is known for its dry, warm weather and scenic desert vistas. It has a wide range of climate zones, from dry desert basins, to tall, snowy highlands. This has made the state a very appealing place to live, especially during the spring and fall.
Weather is typically on the extreme end throughout the state, from hot summers in Phoenix to cold winters in Flagstaff and the nearby Grand Canyon. However, sometimes these extremes turn into natural disasters, ranging from extreme heat to flash floods. When these happen, it’s essential to be prepared.
So what are the most common natural disasters in Arizona, how are they changing, and what can you do to prepare if you live in the state? Whether you already own a home in Scottsdale or are looking at apartments in Tucson, read on for everything you need to know.
1. Arizona heat waves
Hot, dry weather is common throughout Arizona, especially in the Southern parts of the state, where most of the population lives. Summer temperatures often reach well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit in Phoenix, and in July 2023, temperatures were above 110 degrees for a record 31 straight days.
According to First Street Foundation, nearly 53% (1.7 million) of homes in Arizona currently have an Extreme Heat Factor, meaning the average daily temperature is at least 104 degrees Fahrenheit for the hottest month of the year. This is expected to grow.
Cities often feel the heat worse than other areas due to the urban heat island effect. Phoenix, for example, can be 10-15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the evenings than nearby rural areas. The state government is taking an active role in mitigating this issue, such as utilizing cooling technologies and incorporating more native plants.
How to prepare for Arizona heat waves
Heat waves can be intense and last for days, so preparing is essential. Here are a few ways to stay cool in extreme heat:
Stay updated on forecasts and advisories.
Prepare a meal plan that doesn’t involve cooking indoors.
Stay hydrated before, during, and after a heat event.
Make sure your air conditioning is functioning properly.
Switch from incandescent to LED light bulbs.
Stock up on lightweight, protective clothing.
Close blinds, shades, and curtains.
2. Arizona drought
Arizona is especially sensitive to drought, even during average rainfall years. Unfortunately, much of the state is currently dealing with a long-term drought that has been affecting the Southwestern US since 1990. This “megadrought” is due to rising average temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall, which has been exacerbated by human-caused climate change.
Droughts are complicated events that are usually the result of dozens of factors. In Arizona, the primary factors have been reduced rainfall and a shrinking Colorado River, which supplies 36% of Arizona’s water.
Droughts are different from other natural disasters because they are usually long-term events, rather than flooding or dust storms that will generally pass in a day. However, the effects can be dramatic and significantly alter daily life. For example, the Arizona government was recently forced to limit or halt new construction projects around Phoenix due to lack of available groundwater.
Droughts can also increase the frequency and severity of other disasters, such as forest fires, dust storms, and heat waves.
How to prepare for Arizona drought
Because drought has been in place in Arizona for decades already, it’s important to adapt your lifestyle to accommodate lower water use and prepare for future restrictions. For example:
3. Arizona wildfires
Wildfires are common in Arizona. In fact, 74% of properties are at risk of being affected by a wildfire within the next 30 years, one of the highest percentages in the country.
The state’s hot and dry climate, combined with forested mountains in the northern parks of the state, sets the stage for potentially devastating fires. Prolonged droughts, scorching temperatures, and intermittent high winds create a recipe for ignition and rapid fire spread.
The risk of wildfires is worse in May and June until the monsoon season arrives. This is usually when it’s hottest and driest, which helps fuel monsoon activity but leads to dangerous conditions for weeks to months until rain comes.
Wildfires can also lead to parched landscapes, which makes them more susceptible to flooding.
How to prepare for Arizona wildfires
In Arizona, preparing your home and yourself for wildfires is crucial, especially during the summer. Here are a few tips to prepare:
Create a defensible space around your property by removing flammable materials and trimming or removing dry vegetation.
Develop an emergency plan that includes evacuation routes and a communication strategy.
Stay updated on fire weather forecasts and adhere to fire restrictions.
Assemble an emergency kit with essentials and valuable documents.
Ensure your insurance adequately covers fire damage, or if the rising premiums are too high, understand the risks of going uninsured.
Collaborate with your community to prevent fires. This is the most successful way to mitigate fire risk in your neighborhood.
4. Arizona flooding
Arizona is a relatively dry state, but flooding is actually a major threat; 18% of properties are at risk of flooding in the next 30 years. Arizona’s flood risk profile is marked by its arid climate, which makes it particularly susceptible to regional and flash floods despite its reputation for low rainfall. The state is also home to many rivers, mountains, and valleys, which can lead to flooding.
Much of the state’s rugged topography, concrete cities, and dry soil cannot easily absorb sudden heavy downpours, causing water to rush across the surface and overwhelm drainage systems. Even sporadic, intense rainfall events in the highlands during the summer monsoon season can trigger devastating flash floods that pose serious threats to communities and infrastructure.
How to prepare for Arizona flooding
In Arizona, being prepared for flooding is essential, particularly during sudden intense rain and snowmelt events. Because Arizona is prone to flash flooding, you may not have much time to prepare, so it’s critical to practice and have supplies ready during the spring and summer. Here are a few tips to help:
Familiarize yourself with flood risk maps for your area to see your potential risks.
Consider flood insurance if you’re in a high-risk zone.
Keep emergency supplies on hand, including non-perishable food, water, medications, and important documents.
Elevate valuable items in flood-prone areas of your home, and install sandbags or barriers if necessary.
Stay tuned to weather forecasts and alerts, and have a communication plan in place with your family.
jeff1farmer via Getty Images
5. Arizona dust storms
Arizona is renowned for its breathtaking landscapes and arid climate, but it also faces the looming threat of dust storms, known as “haboobs.” The state’s arid desert terrain, characterized by vast open spaces and loose, dry soil, creates the ideal conditions for these intense dust storms to form. They most often occur during the summer monsoon season and are created by strong downdrafts associated with thunderstorms.
Dust storms are often unpredictable, can be miles long and thousands of feet high, and may last up to an hour. When they hit, it’s essential to protect yourself; inhaling too much dust can be dangerous and may cause valley fever, which is caused by fungal spores that live in dry soil.
How to prepare for Arizona dust storms
You may receive official warnings for dust storms, but they’re often unpredictable. Here are a few tips to help you prepare:
To ensure you’re always prepared, follow commonsense preventive measures and make sure to keep a mask with you at all times during the summer months.
If you plan on driving, remember to pull off the road, turn off your lights, and turn off your car if a dust storm is approaching.
In your home, close windows, doors, vents, and any other opening to prevent dust from getting inside.
Final thoughts on natural disasters in Arizona
Arizona is a rich state full of history and abundant nature, making it a very appealing place to live. Phoenix has consistently been one of the fastest growing cities in the US, and is a top migration destination for homebuyers seeking the sun.
If you’re planning on moving to Arizona or already call the state home, make sure you’re prepared for possible natural disasters and long-term weather events. Understanding the risks and adequately preparing will help you make the most out of living in Arizona. The National Weather Service also offers an experimental map that shows forecasted risks for the current seven-day period. This may be helpful as you prepare for a disaster.
It’s important to note that many natural disasters are worsened by climate change.So no matter how you prepare, reducing your carbon footprint is the best long-term solution.
This article is for informational purposes only. Individual results may vary. This is not intended as a substitute for the services of a licensed and bonded home services or disaster prevention professional. Always seek expert advice and follow all official guidance before, during, and after a disaster.
In the space of just 2-3 short days, mortgage rates have moved from multi-decade highs to the lowest levels in 3 weeks. The catch is that the last 3 weeks have also seen some of the highest rates in decades, but hey! Long journeys begin with single steps, right?
As to the pace and duration at which this journey will continue, that’s entirely up to economic data–the periodic reports released by the government and 3rd party firms measuring things like jobs, inflation, and economic output.
Today’s initial boost came from a small downward adjustment in GDP for the 2nd quarter. Yes, the 2nd quarter ended 2 months ago, but the market will take any clarity it can get when it comes to how the economy is responding to the Fed’s restrictive rate policies. After all, as soon as the Fed observes enough of an impact, it will begin to reconsider those policies.
In other words, weaker economic data leads to lower rates, all other things being equal. Some reports are more important than others and we’ll be waiting until Friday to get this week’s headliner: the big jobs report. Between now and then, tomorrow’s data can still move the needle a bit, for better or worse.