U.S. new-home construction sank at the start of the year by the most since the onset of the pandemic, indicating the recovery in the housing market will be gradual as many buyers await a further decline in mortgage rates.
Residential starts decreased 14.8% last month to a 1.3 million annualized rate, after an upward revision to the prior month, government data showed Friday. Multifamily home construction plummeted by more than 35% after surging in the prior month, while single-family groundbreakings also slowed.
The headline figure — which was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists — was the slowest pace in five months.
“The monthly housing starts numbers are extremely noisy and prone to revisions, but the bigger picture is that single-family starts are trending higher, lagging the drop in mortgage rates towards the end of last year, while multi-family starts are trending lower, lagging the rollover in rent inflation,” Kieran Clancy, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.
Building permits, a proxy for future construction, decreased to a 1.5 million rate. Permits for one-family homes edged higher after rising consistently throughout 2023, and multifamily authorizations fell 7.9%, the most since September.
The government’s report showed housing starts fell in all four of the nation’s regions, led by the Midwest and Northeast. The number of single-family homes completed plunged to the lowest level since May 2020.
The housing market’s recovery has struggled to maintain momentum as mortgage rates are still elevated near 7%. However, the nation’s builders have been gaining confidence in recent months on expectations that a further decline in borrowing costs will boost demand.
So far, builders have enjoyed limited competition from existing homes for sale. Homes available on the resale market are well below pre-pandemic levels as most owners remain reluctant to give up mortgages locked in at much cheaper rates.
At the same time, the inventory of new houses for sale remains elevated and suggests builders may be cautious about beginning new projects.
The National Association of Realtors will give a glimpse of the nation’s resale market Feb. 22, when it releases existing-home sales figures for January.
A separate report Friday showed prices paid to US producers rose in January by more than forecast, highlighting the sticky nature of inflation.
Mortgage applications for new homes surged in January as a lack of existing homes continued to fuel the demand for new construction.
Mortgage applications for new home purchases rose 19.1% in January on a year-over-year basis, the 12th consecutive month with an annual increase. Applications were up 38% from the previous month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey for January.
According to MBA estimates, new single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 700,000 units in January, the highest pace since October 2023. The pace was up 16.9% from December’s rate of 599,000 units.
“Applications for new home purchases were strong in January, as newly built homes remained an attractive option for prospective homebuyers who looked to take advantage of lower mortgage rates during the month,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement.
In January, conventional loans accounted for 64.5% of loan applications for new homes. Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans accounted for 24.8% of applications, U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) loans took a 10.3% share and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans accounted for 0.4%.
The average loan size for new homes decreased to $401,282 in January, down from $405,368 in December.
Homebuilders are feeling optimistic about the spring buying season. Homebuilder confidence shot up to a five-month high in February, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ most recent survey.
MBA’s survey tracks new home mortgage application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of homebuilders across the country.
It’s no secret that 2023 was a difficult year to buy a home. With mortgage rates briefly topping 8% and home prices breaking records throughout the year, many would-be sellers simply decided not to bother listing their homes, exacerbating already tight inventories.
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau published last week shows how drastically housing inventory has changed since 2020, while weekly data from Altos Research offers some insights on where it goes from here.
Census Bureau data on housing inventory estimates details two cycles this decade – the onset of the pandemic and the rise of interest rates – that have been catastrophic for the nation’s for-sale housing inventory.
2020-2021: The shock to the system
The onset of the pandemic and government lockdowns sparked a frenzy for homes, especially those away from crowded downtowns and with ample space for home offices and homeschooling. Prospective homebuyers were armed with low interest rates, paused student loan payments and stimulus checks.
The number of owner-occupied homes skyrocketed, quickly depleting the number of vacant for-sale homes. Renters occupied fewer homes, and fewer vacant homes were reserved for them.
The number of homes “held off market” – second homes, vacation homes and others that are neither for-sale, for-rent or occupied – shrank. This could be because their owners snagged profits amid rapidly rising prices, because those who can afford second homes paused buying, or a combination of the two.
Seasonal housing, too, dropped considerably. This is likely due to the fact that seasonal housing – defined as homes intended for periodic occupancy such as for holiday resort guests or farm workers – could be profitably sold to meet soaring homebuyer demand and was not needed during the pandemic’s travel restrictions and weak travel demand.
Most of the trends begun in 2020 continued in 2021 except for renter-occupied homes, which rose above 2019 levels in the second half of the year. This was likely a reflection of the prolonged decline in vacant homes for sale, which made it difficult for would-be buyers to find a home to purchase.
Many of the same pandemic forces that set off the homebuying frenzy also fueled a frenetic pace of inflation. In 2022, the Federal Reserve began taking action to combat these market forces by raising interest rates, starting the second cycle of inventory changes.
2022-2023: The high-rate environment
Over two years, the Federal Reserve hiked rates 11 times for a total increase of 5.25 percentage points, the fastest pace of hikes in four decades. It has held rates at an effective rate of 5.33% in every meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee since July 2023, including in their meeting last week.
Mortgage rates followed suit, walloping buyers’ purchasing power. The sudden run-up in rates discouraged would-be sellers from listing their homes, as they would be faced with much higher monthly payments for the same size home were they to sell and buy another home – if they even qualified for the same size home as they currently own.
This squeezed inventory even further throughout 2022 and 2023, pushing home prices to record highs month after month.
The high-rate environment further pushed owner occupancy up while pushing homes held off market, seasonal housing and homes vacant for sale down. That the number of owner-occupied homes rose throughout 2023 – an abysmal year for home sales – shows just how tightly recent homebuyers are holding onto their low rates.
High rates, combined with low for-sale inventories and high home prices, have also resulted in a surge in home renters. There were nearly 2 million more renter-occupied homes in the fourth quarter of 2023 than in the same quarter of 2019.
The environment has also prompted many homeowners to list their homes for rent rather than sale. The number of homes vacant for rent in the fourth quarter of 2023 was up 4% since the same quarter five years ago, while the number of homes vacant for sale was down 36%.
When inventory bounces back
The extremes of the 2020s have dealt big blows to for-sale inventories. First the 2020-2021 housing frenzy took a big bite out of existing inventories, then the 2022-2023 streak of rate hikes kept would-be sellers from replenishing those inventories.
The 2020s have also seen for-sale inventory siphoned from second homes, vacation homes and seasonal homes. Homebuilders, too, have added to for-sale inventory, pushing the total number of homes in the U.S. up 8.7% since the fourth quarter of 2018. But none of these valves have alleviated the shortage of for-sale homes or the resultant high home prices.
The majority of homes that would be up for sale are being held by owners with low mortgage rates who would rather stay put or rent than sell, a phenomenon known as the “mortgage rate lockdown.” Plus, boomers are aging in place for longer, further depleting available housing stock. In fact, the number of owner-occupied homes is at an all-time high, while the percentage of homes that are owner-occupied is well above pre-pandemic levels.
The only apparent change that could induce significant for-sale inventory back into the market, then, is lower mortgage rates. How quickly would sellers return if rates were lower? We got an early test in December and January when the FOMC forecasted rate cuts in 2024.
As rates began falling steeply from October through December and hovered around 6.6% in January, new listings increased on a year-to-year basis in 14 of 15 weeks, according to data from Altos Research, which, like HousingWire, is owned by HW Media.
The data is an encouraging sign that owners with homes to sell will be responsive to mortgage rates, suggesting rate cuts this year could bring about a rapid uptick in homes for sale.
Less encouraging, however, is how soon the market might see rate cuts. Mortgage rates rose above 7% this week for the first time in 2024 following a strong jobs report and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that suggested cuts were less imminent than many bond and equity traders had assumed.
Dallas-based OneTrust Home Loans brought on James Hecht as its CEO to spearhead the company’s various mortgage lending divisions. As a result, co-founders Josh Erskine and Shane Erskine will be pivoting to the roles of CEO and president at Warp Speed Holdings, respectively.
In a statement, Hecht expressed his enthusiasm about joining OneTrust Home Loans.
“The company has a strong, sophisticated foundation that is well beyond its current size and rivals some of the largest mortgage lenders in the country, offering incredible opportunities for originators to grow their business using tools that include all the standard loan products in addition to true portfolio products and a leading construction lending platform,” Hecht said.
Before joining OneTrust Home Loans, Hecht served as head of production and executive vice president for national retail lending at Newrez, formerly known as Caliber Home Loans.
Throughout his career, he has held various executive positions at high-profile companies such as Stearns Lending and Bank of America, where he launched a major joint venture with homebuilders. Hecht has a reputation for building high-performing teams and driving production growth, the company’s news release states.
OneTrust Home Loans is a privately owned firm that is an approved lender and servicer of Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan products.
Louisville, like the nation, continues to see rising single-family home prices amid low inventory.
Rising interest rates in 2023 sidelined many potential homebuyers and provided little appetite to potential home sellers sitting on much lower interest rates.
Median home prices rose 3.6% last year in the greater Louisville area over 2022, according to the Greater Louisville Association of Realtors. New listings were down 10% and closed sales were down 15%.
“Brutal,” Mike Frank, a senior mortgage broker at Homestretch Mortgage in Louisville, said of 2023. “That was my worst year in the business last year. That’s because everybody was scared because the market turned so fast and rates were at 8%.”
it was likely done raising interest rates after more than a year of hikes meant to slow inflation. It also signaled three rate cuts could be coming in 2024.
Lowering this rate is expected to lead to lower mortgage rates, which hit a 23-year high in October 2023 at nearly 7.8%.
the typical down payment for first-time (8%) and repeat (19%) buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors), a 30-year mortgage with a 7% interest rate would mean monthly payments of about $1,600 (not including homeowner’s insurance or property taxes). Drop the interest rate to 6% and the payment falls to about $1,440.
“It going to get people off of the fence,” Frank said of potential home buyers. “I don’t think (the rates) are gonna go too much lower, but at least it’s gonna get people to go, ‘Ok, maybe this is the time.'”
More homes should hit the market and be sold. But will it balance the market?
Last year marked the worst year on record for home sales in the United States since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In the greater Louisville area, December 2023 marked the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year declines in existing home sales. Real estate agents compare months year-over-year instead of month-to-month because of seasonal trends in real estate.
Redfin. Nearly 60% have a rate below 4%.
“How do you convince those people that this is a great time to move?” he said.
He anticipates the more rates drop toward the rates that homeowners currently have, the more likely they’ll be to take the rising equity they have in their home and go shopping for a new one.
“If we can close the gap that we have between rates that homeowners got a few years ago versus current market rates, that could help push a few more homes into the market,” he said.
2024 will still be a seller’s market
An imbalance of buyers and available homes has made for a persistent seller’s market, a trend local real estate agents don’t see changing any time soon.
Those in the real estate industry consider three to six months of supply (how long it would take for the existing supply of homes on the market to sell at the current sales pace) to be a “balanced” market favorable to both buyers and sellers.
traced back to the Great Recession when many homebuilders went out of business and those that remained didn’t resume building at previous rates.
Even with a projected drop in interest rates, DeWalt said she’s not anticipating the frenzy of the 2020 and 2021 housing market that saw intense bidding wars and the waiving of contingencies, such as home inspections.
“I don’t see it being as crazy like that this coming year, even with more buyers coming on because of the interest rates,” she said. “They’re not gonna drop that low.”
national Realtors association, in a recent news release. “If price increases continue at the current pace, the country could accelerate into haves and have-nots.”
What does this mean for the real estate market in 2024?
Schuler said he anticipates 2024 will “be a more normal year of what real estate used to be like pre-pandemic,” with its most challenging aspect being expectation management for both buyers and sellers.
“From a home seller standpoint, they’ll need to understand … their property will not sell within three hours,” he said. “All they’ve heard for the past three to four years and all they’ve seen on social media and then the news are homes selling for above asking price, multiple offers, waiving any and every contingency. Whereas now that’s not the case.”
Buyers, meanwhile, may feel buoyed by news of interest rates dropping, but they’re still up against a challenging inventory issue.
“From a home buyer standpoint, they’re still gonna have to understand the fact that inventory levels continue to be historically low,” he said. “So if you have your list of everything you want and need in a home, you’re going to have to be understanding that you probably won’t get all of those items, and chances are you still will be paying 98% of the listing price.”
Even if rates fall, Schuler and Frank encouraged prospective home buyers to analyze their budget and focus on what a potential monthly payment would be.
“We instruct our clients that you live in your payment,” he said. “So try not to just focus so much on the price of the home or the rate. Let’s just look at the monthly payment. Can you comfortably live with this monthly payment? Yes or no?”
Different loan programs have varying parameters that will shape a monthly payment, Frank said, yet another consideration for people as they weigh entering the market.
“We would be naive to think that the rate doesn’t matter because it does,” Frank said. “But there are other factors that really come into play.”
Growth & development reporter Matthew Glowicki can be reached at [email protected], 502-582-4000 or on Twitter @mattglo.
At the outset of 2024 the housing market appeared ready to put last year’s unpredictability and stress behind it, with mortgage rates dropping from their 8% peak last October to the upper 6.7% range in early January and some industry watchers predicting lower prices. But now rates are picking back up, reaching nearly 7% as of Monday. And several housing forecasters have also made changes to their home price predictions, which now look as if they’ll continue to rise this year.
Indeed, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi tells Fortune that in December 2022 he had expected national home prices to decline by 2% by December 2023. Instead, prices grew 5%.
“The stronger-than-anticipated house prices is due to the severe lack of supply of homes for sale, as the lock-in effect on existing homeowners was more significant and persistent than anticipated,” he says. “Life events, such as death, divorce, children, or job change, should cause people to move, but people have delayed their moves as they have a mortgage with a much lower rate than existing rates, and moving would be too costly.”
Ultimately, mortgage rates and home prices have continued to lock many first-time homebuyers out of the market, and that will continue to be a problem, he says.
“For the two-thirds of Americans who own their home, the higher prices mean a massive increase in their wealth,” he posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday. “But of course, this is a massive problem for potential first-time homebuyers. Given the collapse in affordability, buying a home is not even remotely possible.”
The housing inventory problem
Although recent reports by the U.S. Census Bureau show that new housing starts and completions are on the rise, the U.S. is still in the throes of a major housing deficit. Indeed, Moody’s Analytics estimates in a report published Friday that there is still a total housing deficit of 1.5 million to 2 million units in the U.S.
“One good year of ‘excessive’ supply was only in its relative term when compared with affordability-constrained demand,” Moody’s Analytics analysts Nick Villa, Christopher Rosin, and Lu Chen wrote in the report. “There is a long way to go before solving the chronical housing shortage.”
Although more than 1 million housing units were built each of the past two years, “there is still a significant shortfall in single-family housing stock due to years of underbuilding since the Global Financial Crisis,” they add. Privately owned housing starts in December 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.46 million, which is 4.3% below the revised November estimate, but 7.6% higher than the December 2022 rate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Although housing starts were up year over year, there were still only 3.2 months of housing supply by the end of 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s “well below” the six months’ supply that “many economists equate with a balanced housing market, underscoring how a multiyear recovery process still lies ahead,” Villa, Rosin, and Chen wrote in the Moody’s report.
While there is still a major shortfall, Zandi says, the market is going to have to shift eventually.
“I do expect people with changing life circumstances will ultimately need to move, creating more inventory and putting downward pressure on prices, but that didn’t happen in 2023,” he notes.
Zandi, along with other economists and housing advocates, says that the key to solving the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. is to increase housing supply. Zandi suggests expanding the low-income housing tax credit to also include affordable single family homes for homeownership.
“This would provide single family homebuilders a meaningful tax incentive to put up more homes at price points that potential first-time homebuyers could afford,” he says.
Moody’s Analytics colleagues also said that fixing the housing shortage would require a “joint effort and creativity” from both the private and public sector, according to the report.
“Of course, there is no slam-dunk policy step that will solve the problem quickly,” Zandi says. “It would take a multifaceted and persistent policy response to do that.”
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“Home prices are likely stabilizing as well, so smart homebuyers will get in on the market ASAP, as the average monthly mortgage payment is not going to get that much cheaper in the months ahead.” Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, pointed out the role of scarce existing home inventory and … [Read more…]
“Overall, we expect 2024 to be a better year than 2023 for homebuyer affordability and the mortgage industry,” Fannie Mae’s chief economist said.
WASHINGTON – The housing market will begin a gradual return to a “more normal balance” in 2024, and mortgage rates are expected to end the year below 6%, Fannie Mae analysts said.
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group said the lower rate environment should boost refinance volumes, which are already on the upswing. Lower rates are also likely to loosen the so-called lock-in effect that’s had a stronghold on the market.
“In fact, the ESR Group expects the annualized pace of existing home sales to move up to 4.5 million units by the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 3.8 million in Q4 2023,” Fannie Mae analysts said in the January report. “However, a full recovery to the pre-pandemic sales rate is expected to take years, as housing affordability remains stretched extremely thin by historical standards relative to household incomes.”
At the same time, housing supply shortages and affordability constraints will continue to bolster the market for new single-family homes, with 2024 starts and new home sales forecast to top 2023 levels.
The ESR Group also said home prices are expected to rise 3.2% over the year, compared to 7.1% in 2023. While the latest forecast continues to project a slowdown in economic growth in 2024, the ESR Group anticipates a brighter economic backdrop compared to previous months, replacing its call for a modest recession with positive-but-below-trend growth in 2024.
The ESR Group noted the rapid recent easing in financial conditions, the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and the solid, upward trend in real personal income growth in October and November as positive impulses for growth over the coming quarters. But, the group said, the economy still faces a higher-than-normal risk of recession.
“Inflation’s decline and the resultant Fed pivot to signaling future rate cuts rates lead us to believe that home sales and mortgage originations likely bottomed out in the second half of 2023 and that a gradual improvement is now underway,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, said.
“We expect mortgage rates to dip below 6% by year-end 2024 and for homebuilders to continue to add new supply, both of which should aid affordability. Additionally, the decline in mortgage rates is likely to push refinancing volumes upward, along with some pickup in purchase financing. However, even at less than 6 percent, we think rates will still have a significant way to go in order to meaningfully reduce the ‘lock-in effect’ experienced by homeowners who refinanced or bought during the pandemic. Overall, we expect 2024 to be a better year than 2023 for homebuyer affordability and the mortgage industry.”
Last month, DataDigest explored market experts’ expectations for 2024, with the consensus calling for a moderately better housing market than 2023.
But a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee the following week set off a market frenzy over expectations of interest rate cuts, moving mortgage rates down well ahead of experts’ forecasts and prompting a subsequent DataDigest that asked whether the picture for 2024 had changed.
On Jan. 18, Fannie Mae weighed in: yes.
Fannie Mae’s latest monthly forecast for the housing market predicts much lower mortgage rates than its December forecast — and thus more home sales and mortgage originations.
Mortgage rates, which dropped precipitously the week of the FOMC meeting, are key to Fannie Mae’s rosier view of the road ahead in 2024. Fannie Mae’s quarterly rate forecasts this month were far lower than last month’s and were its lowest forecasts in at least six months.
“Following the Fed ‘pivot’ in December, an anticipation of more dovish policy, and the recent decline in interest rates, our mortgage rate forecast has been revised meaningfully lower this month,” Fannie Mae wrote in its forecast release.
Mortgage rates have hovered around 6.7% — Fannie Mae’s December forecast for 2024’s average — since mid-December, and the company’s forecast for 2024’s average is now 6.1% with rates dropping below 6% by year end. This should prompt a “gradual recovery” in home sales and single-family mortgage origination, according to Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan.
“Inflation’s decline and the resultant Fed pivot to signaling future rate cuts lead us to believe that home sales and mortgage originations likely bottomed out in the second half of 2023 and that a gradual improvement is now underway,” he said in a statement.
“We expect mortgage rates to dip below 6 percent by year-end 2024 and for homebuilders to continue to add new supply, both of which should aid affordability. Additionally, the decline in mortgage rates is likely to push refinancing volumes upward, along with some pickup in purchase financing.”
The company’s quarterly forecasts for existing and new homes are up significantly from its forecasts from recent months.
Its forecasts for single-family purchase and refinance originations are also above its recent forecasts, although not as dramatically higher as with home sales.
Although Fannie Mae’s outlook for 2024 is up, Duncan warned against getting too carried away.
“However, even at less than 6 percent, we think rates will still have a significant way to go in order to meaningfully reduce the ‘lock-in effect’ experienced by homeowners who refinanced or bought during the pandemic,” he said.
Traders disagree
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes — a major factor in setting mortgage rates — opened December at 4.2%. On the heels of mid-month FOMC meeting, the rate fell to a low of 3.8% on Dec. 27.
That drop has been completely erased already in 2024, with the latest rate above 4.1%.
The steep rebound was fueled in part by comments Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller made at a virtual event hosted by the Brookings Institution on Jan. 16. Waller said rates should be cut “methodically and carefully” and added, “I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past.”
Equity traders, too, have been skittish regarding interest-rate-sensitive stocks — the same stocks that fueled a late December stock market rally. Traders sold off stocks of real estate investment trusts and speculative tech companies last week, but share prices have rebounded so far this week.
The pullbacks signal bond and equity traders are becoming less optimistic about a March rate cut. We’ll have to wait until February’s forecast to see if Fannie Mae’s optimism holds or if traders’ skepticism spreads.
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Recent developments
U.S. economy: According to the latest estimate of U.S. economic growth for Q3 2023, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.9%, slightly slower than the second estimate but still the fastest since Q4 2021— and among the fastest growth in the last 20 years. Consumption spending growth was revised down from a SAAR of 3.6% in the second estimate to 3.1% in the final estimate. This was mainly led by a decline in spending on services but remained the largest contributor to growth at 2.1 percentage points. After nine consecutive quarters of negative growth, residential investment growth came in much stronger than the initial estimates at a SAAR of 6.7%.
The labor market remained much stronger than expected in 2023 and defied expectations of a slowdown. The economy added 216,000 jobs in December, bringing the total jobs added in 2023 to 2.7 million.1 While total jobs added in 2023 was lower than the historical highs of 2021 and 2022, job growth was still remarkable given the high interest rate environment the economy faced. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in December at 3.7% compared to November 2023, but moved up 0.3 percentage points over the year.
While job growth remained significant over the year, some indications of a softer labor market are starting to creep in. The labor force participation rate as well as employment to population ratio decreased 0.3 percentage points over the month to 62.5% and 60.1% respectively. Downward revisions to October and November job growth meant the 3-month average job gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 was the lowest since the third quarter of 2019, if we exclude the 2020 recession. However, the torrid pace of job growth was unlikely to be sustained and employment growth is approaching levels consistent with a balanced labor market. Heading into 2024, we might see a moderation in job growth, which would be more consistent with long-run growth in the U.S. labor force. Job openings edged down slightly to 8.8 million in November 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The ratio of job openings to unemployed, a metric that the Federal Reserve has been tracking to gauge the strength of the labor market, declined from a high of around 1.8 in January 2023 to 1.4 in November.
Inflation continues to trend towards the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. The preferred measure of inflation of the Federal Reserve, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measure increased at a rate of 3.2% year over year, the smallest annual increase since May 2021.2 While inflation has been moderating as the labor market normalizes, a reacceleration of home prices along with still high average hourly earnings growth at 4.1% year over year, could mean that getting to the 2% target might take longer than expected.
U.S. housing market: The housing market felt the impact of higher rates in 2023 with total annual home sales on track to be the lowest since 2012. Total (existing and new) home sales reached 4.4 million units in November 2023, down 1.2% as compared to October 2023 and 6.2% below November 2022. Total home sales averaged around 4.8 million from January through November 2023. Existing home sales were at 3.8 million as of November 2023 and averaged 4.1 million through November 2023.3 The existing housing inventory grew 15.3% year to date in November but the level of inventory (1.1 million homes available for sale in November) remains extremely low by historical standards.4 The rate-lock effect, which was the main driver of the lack of existing inventory, continued to push buyers towards the new home market. The number of new homes available for sale increased 2.7% year-to-date and was up 2.5% from the previous month. Overall, the sales of new homes averaged 666,000 in 2023 as compared to 637,000 in 2022.5
Falling interest rates have spurred the confidence of both potential homebuyers as well as the homebuilders. The Housing Market Index, which had decreased since August increased in December 2023. While existing home sales increased in November, pending home sales for November were still weak and saw a 5.2% decrease from the previous year. The FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index indicated that as of October of 2023, home prices rose 6.1% year to date, and as more home buyers enter the market amidst the lack of inventory, the pressure on prices could increase further.
U.S. mortgage market: Mortgage rates were on an upward trajectory for most of 2023, reaching 23-year highs in October. However, since the last week of October, rates have been declining mainly on the expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve along with easing inflationary pressures. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, as measured by Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), fell almost one percentage point from the last week in October through mid-December. Despite the decline in recent weeks, mortgage rates are 13 basis points higher than they were at the beginning of the year. Mortgage activity also declined with purchase applications down almost 12% in 2023 and total applications down 7% even as refinance applications increased 15% over the year.6
Tighter financial conditions and higher overall interest rates are starting to impact mortgage delinquency rates. Total mortgage delinquency rates were up 0.25 percentage points from 3.37% in Q2 2023 to 3.62% in Q3 2023 according to the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate on conventional mortgages increased from 2.29% to 2.5% in Q3 2023 while the delinquency rate of VA loans was up from 3.7% to 3.76% over the same period. The largest increase was in the delinquency rate of FHA loans which increased 0.55 percentage points from 8.95% in Q2 to 9.5% in Q3. Interestingly, serious delinquency rates (90+ DQs) went down across the board between Q2 and Q3. Foreclosure starts increased from 0.13% in Q2 to 0.19% in Q3 2023 but remain low compared to its historical average.
Outlook
The U.S. economy exhibited tremendous resilience last year on strong consumer spending. We expect economic growth to slow this year as consumer spending starts to fade. Under our baseline scenario, with a slowing economy, the unemployment rate will see a modest uptick, and inflation will continue to moderate.
With inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting the federal fund rates immediately. However, it will continue to pause on interest rate hikes. We expect rate cuts in the second half of the year if the job market cools off enough to keep inflation muted. Under this scenario, we expect mortgage rates to ease throughout the year while remaining in the 6% range.
Falling rates will breathe some life into the housing market with some recovery in home sales. However, home sales are expected to grow only modestly due to a lack of inventory in the market. The demand for housing, however, will remain high based on a large share of Millennial first-time homebuyers looking to buy homes, which will push home prices up. We forecast home prices to increase 2.8% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025 nationally.
Under our baseline scenario, we expect increases in both purchase and refinance volumes this year and into 2025. On purchase originations, higher home sales and growth in home prices will drive the dollar volumes of purchase originations up. However, we do not expect purchase origination volumes to reach the levels seen in 2021 and 2022 as lack of inventory will limit home sales. The drop in mortgage rates will push refinance originations up, as buyers who obtained higher interest rates in 2023 will likely refinance into lower rates. However, rates remaining around the 6% range will not provide enough refinance incentives to millions of homeowners who currently have rates below 6%. And therefore, we expect refinance volume to grow only modestly this year. Overall, we forecast total origination volumes to improve this year and into the next.
January 2024 SPOTLIGHT:
Declining affordability led borrowers to pay more discount points to buy down rates, but our research suggests it may not be worth it
Mortgage rates, as measured by Freddie Mac’s PMMS®, increased significantly in 2023 compared to the record lows of the past few years. On October 26, 2023, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 7.79%, a 23-year high. Since then, mortgage rates have moderated, but remain high by recent historical standards. These higher mortgage rates led many borrowers to make the decision to pay points in order to lower the rate when purchasing a house or refinancing an existing mortgage. During the low interest rate environment, few borrowers opted to pay discount points when obtaining a mortgage, but as rates started creeping up in the early 2022, we saw more borrowers paying discount points to lower their rate.
Using Freddie Mac closing data, we examined how often borrowers pay discount points and how many points they pay. For this analysis, the points we are focusing on are for permanent interest rate reductions throughout the life of the loan.7 To that end, we looked at a borrower profile that roughly matches our PMMS® population: mortgage for a home purchase or refinance of a one-unit, single-family owner-occupied property with a fully amortizing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. We further restricted our sample to borrowers with conforming loans, and with credit scores 740 or above and a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio between 75 and 80 (inclusive).
We found that the share of borrowers who paid discount points increased in 2023 (Exhibit 1). For example, about 58.8% of purchase mortgage borrowers paid discount points in 2023, compared to 31.3% and 53.6% of purchase borrowers in 2021 and 2022 respectively. The share paying discount points was higher for noncash- out and cash-out refinance borrowers, 59.9% and 82.4%, respectively. Also, conditional on paying points, refinance borrowers tended to pay much higher points: 0.99 points for purchase borrowers compared to 1.16 and 1.76 points for non-cash-out and cash-out refinance borrowers, respectively.
It is interesting to note, however, that the interest rate differential between borrowers who pay discount points and those who do not pay discount points is very small. Through November 2023, the average effective rate on purchase loans for borrowers who did not pay discount points was 6.69% versus 6.86% for those who did pay points. This result seems to suggest that paying discount points may not be worth it from the consumers’ point of view. Indeed, some academic research8 has shown that in many circumstances paying discount points can be a poor financial decision. However, while our tabulation shows that borrowers who do not pay points generally receive lower mortgage rates compared to similar borrowers who do pay points, we do not control completely for borrower observed and unobserved attributes. Therefore, we cannot say with certainty that for any particular borrower, the relationship between discount points paid and interest rate is negative.9
Exhibit 2 compares the quarterly average discount points paid by Freddie Mac borrowers (home purchase, owner occupied, one-unit properties). From 2018 through 2021, borrowers that matched the PMMS® profile, (borrowers with origination LTV between 75 and 80 and FICO score 740 or higher) paid about the same average amount of points compared to all purchase borrowers. Starting in 2022 and continuing through 2023, higher credit quality borrowers tended to pay fewer points compared to all borrowers. In 2023, borrowers that matched the PMMS® profile paid on average about 0.06 less points or about 10% less compared to all purchase borrowers.
Prime borrowers who pay discount points on average have higher incomes and are obtaining higher loan balances when purchasing a home compared to borrowers who do not pay points. For example, in 2023 the average loan amount for purchase loans with points paid at origination was $360,000, compared with an average loan amount of $370,000 for mortgages where the borrowers did not pay points. In 2023, the average annual income of a “no discount points” borrower was $148,000, higher than the $140,000 average annual income for borrowers who paid points.
Our analysis on the closing files data shows that there is a difference in borrower behavior across the U.S. when it comes to paying discount points and origination fees. For example, in 2023 over 70% of prime purchase borrowers in HI, NM, WV, OR, WA, and DE paid discount points when closing on their mortgage while less than 50% of borrowers paid discount points in VT, IA, MA, IL, NE, ND, and WI. Exhibit 3 below shows the breakdown by state in 2023.
Our analysis shows that mortgage borrowers in 2023 were more willing to pay discount points than in previous years, and that the likelihood of paying points was greater for lower credit quality borrowers compared to the high-quality mortgage borrowers captured in our PMMS® profile population. We also saw that borrowers in the Midwest were less likely to pay points compared to borrowers in the Pacific and Mountain West. If interest rates stabilize in 2024, it will be interesting to observe whether borrowers opt to pay fewer points, or if the recent uptick in paying discount points is a more permanent shift in the mortgage market.
Footnotes
1 Non-Farm Employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2 BEA
3 National Association of Realtors (NAR)
4 From January 1999 through December 2019 the average number of existing homes available for sale averaged 2.2 million, about double the number of homes available for sale in November 2023.
5 U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
6 Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
7 For an analysis of temporary buydowns see our previous Research Brief: https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20230731-temporary-mortgage-rate-buydown-activity-spiked-in.
8 See for example: Agarwal, S., Ben-David, I. and Yao, V., 2017. Systematic mistakes in the mortgage market and lack of financial sophistication. Journal of Financial Economics, 123(1), pp. 42-58.
9 For a more detailed analysis see: Mota, N., Palim, M. and Woodward, S., 2022. Mortgages are still confusing… and it matters—How borrower attributes and mortgage shopping behavior impact costs. Fannie Mae Working Paper. https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45841/display