Residential Construction Fall and Builder Confidence Flattens in Uncertain Rate Environment
While builder confidence in the market for new residential construction improved in March, it remained flat in April and residential construction numbers showed a decline in momentum as well.
Residential construction starts, which had surged in February, gave back all of those gains in March. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) report that construction began at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.321 million housing units during the month, a decline of 14.7 percent from February’s level of 1.549 million units. Starts were 4.3 percent lower than their level in March 2023.
Single-family starts fell 12.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.022 million and multifamily starts dived 20.8 percent to 290,000 units. The two categories were down 21.2 percent and 43.7 percent respectively year-over-year.
Permits also declined. The annual rate was 4.3 percent lower at 1.458 million units compared to 1.523 million in February. Permits increased 1.5 percent on an annual basis. Single-family authorizations dropped from 1.032 million to 973,000, a 5.7 percent decline. This was still a 17.4 percent improvement from March of last year. Multifamily permits were unchanged at 433,000 units, down 22.1 percent year-over-year.
Analysts polled by Econoday had forecast starts at 1,480 million and permits at 1.510 million, substantially overshooting both numbers.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) broke a four-month string of gains this month, remaining at the 51 level, unchanged from March, but still above the key breakeven point of 50.
Robert Deitz, NAHB’s chief economist, said the flat reading suggests the potential for demand growth is there, but buyers appear to be waiting until there is more clarity on the direction of rates. “With the markets now adjusting to rates being somewhat higher due to recent inflation readings, we still anticipate the Federal Reserve will announce future rate cuts later this year, and that mortgage rates will moderate in the second half of 2024,” he said.
The HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor” and asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The HMI index charting current sales conditions in April and the index gauging buyer traffic each increased 1 point to 57 and 35, respectively. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell 2 points to 60.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased 4 points to 63, the Midwest gained 5 points to 46, the South rose 1 point to 51 and the West registered a 4-point gain to 47.
The April survey also showed that 22 percent of builders cut home prices this month, down from 24 percent in March and 36 percent in December 2023, while the average price reduction held steady at 6 percent for the 10th straight month. Fifty-seven percent of builders used some form of sales incentives. The share was 60 percent in March.
On an unadjusted basis, the Census/HUD report shows housing starts in March are estimated at 110,900 including 87,100 single-family units. The totals in February were 110,100 and 81,700. There were 123,500 permits issued during the month compared to 119,100 in February. The single-family totals rose from 79,400 to 84,300.
Homes were completed during the month at an annual rate of 1.469 million units. This was a decline of 13.5 percent from February and 13.9 percent from the previous March. Single-family completions dropped 10.5 percent and were 8.5 percent lower than a year earlier while multifamily completions were down 19.9 percent.
For the year to date (YTD) housing starts total 318,800, up 1.3 percent from the same period in 2023. Single-family starts have risen 27.1 percent to 239,100 while multifamily starts have fallen by 38.0 percent to 76,400 units.
YTD permits are up 3.8 percent, entirely due to a 24.9 percent increase in single-family permits which helped offset a drop of 25.2 percent in the multifamily sector.
Completions total 347,300 thus far in 2024, an increase of 4.3 percent from 2023. There have been 5.8 percent fewer single-family homes completed but multifamily completions have risen 27.4 percent.
At the end of the reporting period, there were 1.646 million homes under construction, 689,000 of which were single-family homes. in addition, there were 273,000 permits available 141,000 for single-family houses.
Starts dropped by double digits in three of the four major regions and permits also drifted lower.
Starts In the Northeast were down 36.0 percent compared to February and 56.8 percent on an annual basis. Permits dropped 20.8 percent but increased 8.1 percent for the year.
In the Midwest, starts were down 23.0 percent for the month but were 18.0 percent above the March 2023 pace. Permits dropped 14.7 percent from February and 3.4 percent on an annual basis.
The South’s starts fell by 17.8 percent and 11.0 percent from February and from March 2023, respectively. Permits fell 0.6 percent but increased by 0.4 for the year.
The only positive changes were in the West, up 7.1 and 48.1 percent for the month and year. Permitting increased 5.1 percent and 4.1 percent from the two earlier periods.
Builder confidence rose for the fourth straight month and residential construction stats may now be trying to catch up. Both construction permits and housing starts rose in February compared to both January and February 2023 levels.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said new residential construction began on a seasonally adjusted pace of 1.521 million units last month. This is 10.7 percent higher than the 1.374 million units reported in January and 5.9 percent more than the level a year earlier.
Single-family starts rose 11.6 percent for the month to a rate of 1.129 million units and were up 35.2 percent year-over-year while multifamily starts increased by 8.5 percent. They retreated however by 35.9 percent on an annual basis.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, construction started on 108,100 units during the month, 79,200 of which were single-family houses. The January numbers were 97,400 and 69,700 respectively.
Permitting also increased, although not as dramatically. Authorizations were at a seasonally adjusted level of 1.518 million, 1.9 percent higher than the 1.489 million estimate the previous month. The year-over-year change was +2.4 percent.
Single-family permits were up 1.0 percent to 1.031 million, 29.5 percent higher than a year earlier. Multifamily permits increased 2.4 percent but lagged the prior February by 32.8 percent.
Permits issued during the month totaled 118,300, up from 114,800. Single-family permits increased from 75,900 to 79,300.
Analysts were on target with their forecasts. Those polled by Econoday had consensus estimate of 1.449 million for starts and 1.500 million for permits.
There were an estimated 124,100 residential units completed in February compared to 97,300 in January. Of those, a respective 81,000 and 61,000 were single-family units. On a seasonally adjusted basis, completions increased 19.7 percent from January and 9.6 percent for the year.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said its index measuring home builder perceptions of the new home market climbed back above the key level of 50 this month. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose 3 points to 51, the highest level since July 2023 and the first time it has surpassed the 50 mark since last July. NAHB economist Robert Dietz said builders are responding to the strong demand for housing and mortgage rates which are below the peak reached last fall.
The HMI survey asks builders for their perception of current single-family home sales, sales expectations for the next six months, and current traffic of prospective builders. The scores for each component form an index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three indices posted gains in March. The HMI index charting current sales conditions increased 4 points to 56, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose 2 points to 62 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased 2 points to 34.
Dietz also noted that the slightly lower rates are allowing builders to cut back on discounting to boost sales. In March, 24 percent of builders reported cutting home prices, down from 36 percent in December 2023 and the lowest share since July 2023. However, the average price reduction in March held steady at 6 percent for the ninth straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives is holding firm. Sixty percent of builders offered some form of incentive in March. That share has remained between 58 percent and 62 percent since last September.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased 2 points to 59, the Midwest gained 5 points to 41, the South rose 4 points to 50 and the West registered a 5-point gain to 43.
The Census/HUD report estimates there were 1.666 million residential units under construction at the end of February, 683,000 of them single-family houses. In addition, builders have a backlog of 270,000 permits including 141,000 for single-family residences.
Starts in the Northeast region were down 10.3 percent from January but 16.2 percent higher than the previous February. Permits rose 36.2 percent from January and surged 79.6 percent compared to February 2023.
The Midwest saw gains of 16.4 percent from the prior month and 23.2 percent for the year. Permits increased by 3.8 and 14.9 percent.
Housing starts jumped 15.7 percent and 11.5 percent from the two earlier periods in the South. Permitting dipped by 1.3 percent from January and 5.1 percent for the year.
The West lost ground, with starts falling 7.9 percent and 10.8 percent for the month and the year respectively. Permits were also lower, by 6.8 and 11.2 percent.
Average mortgage rates climbed moderately last Friday. Indeed, they rose on every business day last week. However, that followed a week of mainly falls. And those rates begin this morning close to where they were at the start of March.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today barely move. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
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Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.12%
7.13%
+0.02
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.62%
6.65%
+0.03
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
+0.04
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.64%
6.66%
Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA
6.49%
7.17%
+0.01
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
+0.02
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.28%
7.38%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I doubt we’ll see mortgage rates enter a consistent downward trend much before the summer, and possibly later.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $81.35 from $80.62 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,159 from $2,162 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged up to 75 from 71 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
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What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Fed
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) begins a two-day meeting tomorrow. And a flurry of events is scheduled for the following afternoon.
Almost nobody expects an announcement of a cut in general interest rates on Wednesday. But events that afternoon include:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
These FOMC documents and the news conference may provide new insights into how the Fed’s thinking on future cuts to general interest rates is evolving. So, markets globally will be paying the closest attention to every word written and uttered.
And there is huge potential for Wednesday’s Fed events to move mortgage rates.
I covered this in last Saturday’s weekend edition. And I’ll brief you in more detail again on Wednesday morning so you’ll know what to look out for.
Other influences on mortgage rates this week
Most of the economic reports on this week’s calendar are unlikely to affect mortgage rates. It’s not impossible. But they cover areas of the economy that rarely interest the bond investors who largely determine those rates.
Today’s lone report is a good example. It’s the home builder confidence index for February, which came in as expected. I don’t recall the last time that had a perceptible influence on mortgage rates. And the same goes for tomorrow’s housing starts and building permits, also for February.
The two reports that might move mortgage rates this week are both March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One covers the services sector and the other manufacturing.
They’re both expected to show purchasing activity slowing modestly. But I’ll brief you more fully on what to expect on Wednesday.
Friday has no scheduled economic reports. However, three Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, have speaking engagements that day. Those could be an opportunity to reinforce messages communicated on Wednesday and to correct any misunderstandings. So, they could have an impact on mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Mortgage rate buydowns may not be as hot an incentive in 2024 as mortgage rates remain elevated, homebuilder sentiment climbs, and housing starts decline. Yahoo Finance Housing Reporter Dani Romero details major housing players’ decision to offer fewer incentives to buyers, referencing the latest data out from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
Editor’s note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.
Video Transcript
[AUDIO LOGO]
– The housing market narrative is shifting compared to last year driving home builders to weigh the option of withdrawing incentives for buyers. Yahoo Finance’s very own Dani Romero is here with the details. Dani.
DANI ROMERO: Josh will this be the year that we say sayonara to those aggressive incentives like the mortgage rate buy downs which is when the builder upfronts the cost to lower the rate on the loan. The answer is, we’ll see, mortgage rates are rising. So that’s really squeezing the hope that a lot of people had that this spring selling season would be the turnaround story for the housing market.
Now the biggest homebuilders, Lennar, DR Horton, they have really signaled that they are not going to pull back on incentives. And that is really their winning shot in this game to gain the market share, which they’ve already been doing and for some perspective, DR Horton actually offers mortgage rates about one point below market rates.
So that means you could gain a mortgage rate around 5% and that’s really attractive in this market. On the other hand KB Home signaled that they will not be pulling back on incentives. But that is also before we had all this inflation data come out. So that also is part of this equation as well.
Bottom line, builders are really looking at each other and trying to see who’s going to make the first move.
– Who’s going to blink first. Let’s talk about housing starts, which we got today, sliding in January, mortgage rates of course ticking higher this week. So how does that fit into the narrative? I mean, we were looking for some relief that doesn’t feel like relief necessarily.
DANI ROMERO: Today’s housing starts the data that came out really reflects the wintry weather, not necessarily the pullback in builder confidence. Remember builders need good weather to build and that does complicate the story in the winter months. So and for some perspective, the biggest drop in housing starts was actually the regions that were hit by winter storms.
So for example in the Northeast, housing starts were down by 20%, month over month. So that really does give you some perspective that certain regions were really hit by some of the storms. But looking ahead economists are really expecting that single family starts will gain momentum.
And the fact that the new home market is still looking like that, really bright spot in this housing market, especially that these builders will continue to offer these incentives, like those mortgage rate buy downs. I mean, 5% looks really great right now.
– Yes it really does. Thank you so much, Dani. I appreciate it.
Even though the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the third consecutive increase in its measure of home builder confidence, actual residential construction activity fell. The residential construction report for January shows both the rate of permitting and housing starts declined from the previous month, the second straight loss for starts.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said construction began on residential properties at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.331 million units. This was down 14.8 percent from the December rate of 1.562 million. The December rate was, however, a substantial upgrade from the 1.460 million units originally reported. On a year-over-year basis, starts were almost flat, with a decline of 0.7 percent.
Single-family starts fell 4.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.004 million units but that was an improvement of 22.0 percent from the prior January. Multifamily starts, at 314,000 units, were down 35.8 percent from December and 37.9 percent on an annual basis.
On an unadjusted basis, the report says there were 93,700 units started during the month, 68,700 of them single-family houses. The December numbers were 108,800 and 72,300, respectively.
The setback for permitting was more modest. Total authorizations were at an annual rate of 1.470 million, a 1.5 percent dip from 1.493 million in December and an increase of 8.6 percent for the year. The 1.015-million-unit rate for single-family houses marked a 1.6 percent gain for the month and 35.7 percent year-over-year. The permitting rate for multifamily units dropped 9.0 percent and 26.6 percent.
Analysts polled by Econoday overshot the mark for both starts and permits. They projected that starts would be at a rate of 1.470 million units and permits would come in at 1.510 million units.
Before seasonal and annual adjustments, permits were issued at a rate of 112,700, up from 104,900 the prior month. Single-family permits increased from 64,800 to 75,400.
NAHB said its Housing Market Index (HMI) rose another 4 points in February to 48. This is the highest reading since last August and represents a 14-point increase over the last three months. NAHB economist Robert Dietz said “Expectations that mortgage rates will continue to moderate in the coming months, the prospect of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, and a protracted lack of existing inventory helped provide a boost to builder sentiment” over the last three months.
He added “Buyer traffic improved at the start of 2024, as even small declines in interest rates produce a disproportionate positive response among likely home purchasers. And while mortgage rates still remain too high for many prospective buyers, we anticipate that due to pent-up demand, many more buyers will enter the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to decline this year.”
The NAHB/Wells Fargo monthly survey of builders gauges their perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three of the major HMI indices posted gains in February. The HMI index charting current sales conditions increased 4 points to 52, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose 3 points to 60 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased 4 points to 33.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased 3 points to 57, the Midwest gained 2 points to 36, the South rose 5 points to 46 and the West registered a 6-point gain to 38.
Those attitudes were not reflected in regional housing starts which declined across the board. They tumbled 20.6 percent in the Northeast compared to December and were 18.8 percent lower than in January 2023. The Midwest suffered a 30.0 percent loss although the region’s starts were up 10.9 percent for the year. The South had declines of 9.7 percent and 4.2 percent from the two earlier periods, while the West dropped by 15.7 percent month-over-month but was 11.4 percent higher than 12 months earlier.
The regional figures for permitting were more upbeat. The Northeast rose 19.4 percent and 4.5 percent for the month and year and the Midwest was up 6.6 percent and 18.0 percent. The South posted a monthly loss of 7.0 percent but was still up 3.9 percent for the year. Permitting in the West was 1.5 percent higher than in December and 16.7 percent above the previous January rate.
The residential construction report estimated that completions were running at a 1.416-million-unit rate in January, down 8.1 percent from the prior month. An estimated 96,300 homes were completed during the month, down from 148,000 in December.
At the end of January there were 1,676 million housing units under construction, 680,000 of them single-family houses, and a backlog of 267,000 permits.
Mortgage rates stabilized in the past week but remain close to the narrow range observed since the start of this month.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69% as of Jan. 25, an increase from last week’s figure of 6.60%, according toFreddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on Thursday. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 5.96% this week, up from 5.76% during the prior week. And HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed that Optimal Blue’s average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans was 6.713% on Thursday, up from 6.709% at the same time last week.
“Given this stabilization in rates, potential homebuyers with affordability concerns have jumped off the fence back into the market,” Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement. “Despite persistent inventory challenges, we anticipate a busier spring homebuying season than 2023, with home prices continuing to increase at a steady pace.”
In the short term, all eyes are turned toward the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next Tuesday and Wednesday. According to Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu, December’s higher-than-expected inflation reading made a dent in market confidence concerning the Federal Reserve’s readiness to implement interest rate cuts.
“The Federal Reserve is now facing a new challenge: determining the optimal timing for a shift to rate cuts,” Xu said in a statement. “The central bank faces the dilemma of potential negative impacts on the economy if the current restrictive policy persists longer and the risk of a dangerous rebound in inflation in 2024 if rates are cut prematurely.”
Mat Ishbia, chairman and CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage, told CNBC on Monday that he believed the Fed might start to cut rates as soon as March, April or May.
Meanwhile, the Bright MLS forecast for 2024 calls for mortgage rates to decline further this year, reaching 6.2% by the fourth quarter. But inventory is likely to remain an issue for homebuyers this year, cautioned Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. To stay within budget, buyers will have to talk through trade-offs and compromises with a real estate professional who understands local market conditions, Sturtevant said in a statement.
In January, builder confidence came in strong on the strength of declining mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report rose seven points month-over-month to a reading of 44 in January.
Housing starts in December came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.46 million, above consensus expectations of 1.43 million. Single-family housing starts (1.03 million) were 16% higher than a year ago, and permits for single-family homes reached their highest level since May 2022. Homebuilders are expressing greater optimism for two reasons: the anticipation … [Read more…]
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed’s target level, it wasn’t the triumph it might have been. Even so, rates managed to move lower.
Mortgage rates and, indeed, most rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market. Bond yields/rates move higher when inflation is high, and the market has been waiting on signs of lower inflation before trading in a way that allows interest rates to move lower.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest name in monthly inflation reports. It’s caused big reactions in rates many times over the past few years. In recent months, it’s been showing more and more promise regarding a return to inflation levels that would allow for significantly lower rates.
But CPI has given false hope before, so traders are wary. This week’s report definitely stopped short of providing resounding confirmation that inflation is defeated. That said, it didn’t send any signals that were too troubling either.
With that in mind, it’s not too surprising that rates actually didn’t move much in response to CPI. If anything, the initial impulse was toward slightly higher rates. It wasn’t until the following day’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that bond traders saw better evidence of calmer inflation. Both CPI and PPI have been moving lower, but PPI is now all the way back down to target levels.
The following chart shows how 10yr Treasury yields (which tend to correlation with mortgage rate movement) were reacting throughout the week:
Note the initially bad reaction to CPI. There was a recovery that same afternoon for a variety of potential reasons. At least one of those reasons had to do with speculation that the Fed is still on track to deliver a series of rate cuts this year in addition to making rate-friendly changes to the way it’s managing its bond portfolio. Fed policy expectations are even easier to see when we look at actual Fed Funds Rate expectations which are now at the lowest levels since July.
Mortgage rates don’t correlate perfectly with Fed Funds Rate expectations (one reason we often advise that a Fed rate cut/hike doesn’t mean a mortgage rate cut/hike). As such, they’re not back below the recent lows, but they definitely haven’t moved much higher. This week’s gentle descent means we’re continuing to hold a vast majority of the improvement seen in Nov/Dec.
Looking ahead, while next week doesn’t have any economic data on the same level as CPI, Wednesday’s Retail Sales report can definitely move the needle. It’s expected to improve slightly to 0.4% month over month after hitting 0.3% last time.
Beyond the data, we’ll hear from several Fed speakers and there’s been some speculation that Waller’s appearance at the Brookings Institute will bring some important concepts regarding the precursors for friendlier rate policy in 2024. That will happen on Tuesday, which is the first business day of the week next week due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
While not as much of a factor for interest rates, we’ll also get updates on several key housing metrics including new home construction, builder confidence, and Existing Home Sales.
Real estate finished November as the second best performing group in the S&P 500 Index adding 12%, trailing slightly behind tech’s 13% gain. The momentum was fueled by bets the central bank may begin cutting rates as early as next year.
RELATED: Mortgage rates will decline further, economic signs indicate
In November, the interest-rate sensitive sector was a market outperformer as investors poured capital into the group. A pullback in Treasury yields has also supported trader optimism that the worst of it could be over. Additionally, U.S. real estate investment trusts, which have been beaten-down by surging interest rates and economic uncertainty, are now flashing signs of strength.
The group rallied 12% in November versus the S&P 500’s 9% gain, notching its best month since 2011. Bank of America said it’s overweight the real estate sector ahead of 2024, with Jeffrey Spector calling the REIT sector equity’s “diamond in the rough.” He listed American Homes 4 Rent, Americold Realty Trust, Empire State Realty Trust, Kimco Realty Corp., Prologis Inc. and Welltower Inc. as his top picks in a note to clients Friday.
Battered office landlord stocks have placed a overcast on the REIT sector as a whole, though office only represents a sliver of the group. Investors have been fleeing the office sector as fears of remote work and elevated borrowing costs destabilize the sector.
“Real estate has seen the biggest de-rating since 2021 among all industries on concerns over office, but office is less than 5% of real estate’s market cap,” he said.
While Bank of America remains cautious on the market entering 2024, it still sees real estate as underappreciated.
For homebuilding stocks, the bulk of the monthly advance was made during the first three sessions of November after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold its benchmark rate steady for a second meeting. The index posted three back-to-back gains of more than 4%, ultimately sending the index to post its biggest monthly gain since 2020.
The recent pullback in mortgage rates is likely to further support the sector’s gains, enabling builders to buy down rates to 5.5%, a level that has previously helped demand, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading said.
“This would actually make new home payments more favorable versus resales heading into the spring selling season, so the timing is great for the group,” he noted.
Although builder confidence has been on the decline, Capital Economics U.S. Property Economist Thomas Ryan says the sentiment is a misrepresentation of where larger public builders actually stand, as the gauge is largely comprised of smaller private builders.
As such, the typical strong correlation between NAHB homebuilder confidence and housing starts has broken down recently, he said. That divergence was underscored in November after the confidence gauge fell to its lowest level this year, despite housing starts unexpectedly rising to the highest in three months.
“While smaller homebuilders are finding it increasingly difficult to access the credit required to maintain construction activity, their giant competitors are in an extremely strong financial position,” Ryan wrote.
The real estate sector still lags behind the broader market year-to-date, but according to Bank of America, the group may be a bright spot heading into 2024.
On the construction side, homebuilders as well as land developers found it hard to finance projects because of high short-term interest rates. On the consumer side, a large number of prospective buyers sat on the sidelines as housing affordability worsened.
Shelter remained the largest contributor to inflation in October, according to the CPI report. However, the rate of housing inflation is steadily falling and there are high hopes that interest rates will fall in 2024.
“While builder sentiment was down again in November, recent macroeconomic data point to improving conditions for home construction in the coming months,” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement.
“In particular, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates close to or below 7.5%. Given the lack of existing home inventory, somewhat lower mortgage rates will price-in housing demand and likely set the stage for improved builder views of market conditions in December.”
NAHB forecasts approximately a 5% increase for single-family housing starts in 2024 as financial conditions ease.
Homebuilders continued to make adjustments to boost their sales
According to the survey, 36% of builders cut home prices, up from 32% in the previous two months. It was the highest share of builders cutting prices recorded in one year.
According to the NAHB, the average price discount remained at 6%, unchanged from the previous month.
All three major HMI indices posted declines in November. Homebuilders’ gauge of current sales conditions fell to 40. The gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers declined to 21. And the component charting sales expectations over the next six months fell to 39.
The three-month moving averages for HMI all declined across the four major regions in November. The Northeast fell one point to 49; the Midwest dropped three points to 36; the South fell seven points to 42; and the West posted a six-point decline to 35.