Another reason why the Fed can let the CRE swoon rip.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The multifamily segment of Commercial Real Estate – apartments – is holding up better than office, retail (the Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown since 2017), and lodging, though it’s cracking too with some spectacular defaults over the past 12 months or so. Yet, US banks and thrifts and foreign banks hold only a small-ish portion.
Total mortgages backed by multifamily properties rose by 4.4% year-over-year in Q4, or by $88 billion, to $2.09 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, based on its own data, and on data from the Federal Reserve, Trepp, and the FDIC.
Of those mortgages:
US government agencies, US Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), state and local governments, and state and local government pension funds held 54.8%, or $1.09 trillion.
US banks and thrifts and foreign banks held 29.3%, or $612 billion.
Life insurers held 11.3%, or $235 billion.
Another 3.2%, or $67 billion, had been securitized into CMBS, CDOs, and ABS, and those securities were held by investors.
Other investors, including private pension funds and REITs, held 2%.
The blue line represents federal government backed entities – including MBS issued and guaranteed by those entities, Quite an interesting trend (chart via MBA):
The MBA excludes loans for acquisition, development and construction, and loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties.
For about a year, we’ve been reporting on how non-bank entities, from CMBS holders to PE firms, were on the hook for office and other CRE mortgages, how the biggest losses have hit these investors, particularly the CMBS investors, and not banks. And among the banks that it did hit, there were a slew of foreign banks.
But with the multifamily segment of CRE, it’s mostly federal, state, and local government entities, including their pension funds that are on the hook – meaning the taxpayers are on the hook for 54.8% of all multifamily mortgages.
And the Fed couldn’t care less about taxpayers. The Fed is worried about the banks, not a few individual banks, but about contagion across the banking system triggering a banking panic. But with the 4,026 US banks with $23 trillion in total assets holding only $612 billion in multifamily mortgages – well, that’s less than 3% of their total assets. In other words, the banking system overall isn’t fundamentally threatened by bad multifamily loan.
Even if many of the banks’ $612 billion in multifamily loans default, they’re secured by multifamily buildings with some value, so the losses are going to be only fraction of the $612 billion, spread over 4,026 banks with $23 trillion in total assets.
As always, some smaller banks with concentrated exposure in some markets may eventually topple under defaulted multifamily loans. Fitch thinks 49 tiny banks are heavily exposed to troubled multifamily loans, and some of those banks make topple. In nearly every year, some banks toppled, and it’s just part of the risks in the banking system, and it’s the FDIC’s job to mop up those local messes at investors’ expense.
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Mortgage rates started the week relatively low, but they’re back up today.
Average 30-year mortgage rates are around 20 basis points up from where they were earlier this week, and are now in the upper 6% range, according to Zillow data.
Mortgage rates are expected to go down in 2024, but they’ve been elevated so far this year in response to still-high inflation.
Price growth has slowed significantly from when it peaked in 2022, but it’s still above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. In February, the Consumer Price Index actually inched up a bit from the previous month.
Because the path to lower inflation is proving to be a bit bumpy, we’ll likely need to wait a few more months until mortgage rates fall. And if inflation continues to stagnate, we might not see rates drop until much later in the year.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
This week’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.74%, according to Freddie Mac. This is a 14-basis-point decrease from the previous week.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.16% this week, according to Freddie Mac data. This is a six-point decrease since the week before.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate dramatically to try to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. So far, inflation has slowed significantly, but it’s still a bit above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
The Fed has indicated that it’s likely done hiking rates and that it could start cutting soon. This will likely allow mortgage rates to trend down later this year.
When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down?
Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they’ve moderated somewhat in recent months, and are expected to drop further this year.
In February 2024, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% year-over-year. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked last year, which is good news for mortgage rates. But it has to slow further before rates will begin to fall.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
“We have a very strong view that in the near future, you’re going to start seeing a lot of consolidation of these banks, and I think if you look at it on a macro scale, there’s a big necessity right now for this consolidation.” Should regulators embrace a shift towards commercial private solutions? A “stalemate” … [Read more…]
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Loan term
Today’s Rate
Last week
Change
30-year mortgage rate
6.90%
7.11%
-0.21
15-year fixed rate
6.49%
6.65%
-0.16
30-year jumbo mortgage rate
7.04%
7.21%
-0.17
30-year mortgage refinance rate
6.84%
7.05%
-0.22
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of March 12, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Mortgage terms and types
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate average is 6.90%, which is a decrease of 21 basis points from one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.49%, which is a decrease of 16 basis points from the same time last week. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 6.46%, a decrease of 22 basis points compared to last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
Mortgage rate trends
High inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes drove up mortgage rates over the last several years. Toward the end of last year, however, the Fed announced that interest rate cuts were on the table for 2024. That projection led to a significant drop in mortgage rates, pushing them into the 6% range. Since early February, however, mortgage rates have climbed back above 7% in response to strong economic data.
30-year fixed mortgage: 6.90%
15-year fixed mortgage: 6.49%
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage: 6.46%
Mortgage rate forecasts from experts
Experts say interest rate cuts from the Fed will allow mortgage rates to ease, though the first cut won’t likely come until May or June, depending on how quickly inflation decelerates.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “It’s possible that rates might go up before they go down again, so that’s why we’re still being conservative with rates being around 6.5%.”
Each month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
While mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, most experts and market watchers predict rates will move toward 6% or lower by the end of 2024. Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
What influences mortgage rates?
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Federal Reserve monetary policy: The nation’s central bank doesn’t set interest rates, but when it adjusts the federal funds rate, mortgages tend to go in the same direction.
Inflation: Mortgage rates tend to increase during high inflation. Lenders usually set higher interest rates on loans to compensate for the loss of purchasing power.
The bond market: Mortgage lenders often use long-term bond yields, like the 10-Year Treasury, as a benchmark to set interest rates on home loans. When yields rise, mortgage rates typically increase.
Geopolitical events: World events, such as elections, pandemics or economic crises, can also affect home loan rates, particularly when global financial markets face uncertainty.
Other economic factors: The bond market, employment data, investor confidence and housing market trends, such as supply and demand, can also affect the direction of mortgage rates.
Calculate your monthly mortgage payment
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
How to find the best mortgage rates
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Save for a bigger down payment: Though a 20% down payment isn’t required, a larger upfront payment means taking out a smaller mortgage, which will help you save in interest.
Boost your credit score: You can qualify for a conventional mortgage with a 620 credit score, but a higher score of at least 740 will get you better rates.
Pay off debt: Experts recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 36% or less to help you qualify for the best rates. Not carrying other debt will put you in a better position to handle your monthly payments.
Research loans and assistance: Government-sponsored loans have more flexible borrowing requirements than conventional loans. Some government-sponsored or private programs can also help with your down payment and closing costs.
Shop around for lenders: Researching and comparing multiple loan offers from different lenders can help you secure the lowest mortgage rate for your situation.
Affiliate links for the products on this page are from partners that compensate us (see our advertiser disclosure with our list of partners for more details). However, our opinions are our own. See how we rate mortgages to write unbiased product reviews.
Mortgage rates fell late last week, and they remain low today. Average 30-year mortgage rates have generally been hovering in the 6.30% to 6.40% range this week, according to Zillow data. This is a significant drop from the start of the month, when rates were above 6.60%.
Where mortgage rates go next depends on the economy. Though the latest data suggests that the economy is slowly coming into better balance, any hotter-than-expected reports could cause rates to spike like they did in February.
As long as inflation continues to slow and the labor market doesn’t heat back up, mortgage rates should go down in 2024.
Mortgage rates have remained elevated so far this year as markets have had to adjust their expectations of when the Federal Reserve might finally start cutting the federal funds rate. Right now, investors are pricing in a nearly 60% probability that the Fed will cut this rate by 25 basis points at its June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This means that we could see mortgage rates inch down just ahead of the summer months. But they may not be substantially lower until we get closer to the end of the year.
Today’s mortgage rates
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Today’s refinance rates
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments:
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023.
Many forecasts expect rates to fall this year now that inflation has been coming down. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.1%, a significant slowdown compared when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. But we’ll likely need to see more slowing before rates can drop substantially.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop this year. In fact, they’ll probably rise.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.20% in 2024 and 0.30% in 2025, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.10% increase in 2024 and a 3.30% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates have since eased, removing some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely push prices up.
What Happens to House Prices in a Recession?
House prices usually drop during a recession, but not always. When it does happen, it’s generally because fewer people can afford to purchase homes, and the low demand forces sellers to lower their prices.
How Much Mortgage Can I Afford?
A mortgage calculator can help you determine how much house you can afford. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.
Typically, experts recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn’t exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
The lower your rate, the more you’ll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.
Editor’s Note: Options are not suitable for all investors. Options involve risks, including substantial risk of loss and the possibility an investor may lose the entire amount invested in a short period of time. Please see the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
The greenshoe option allows underwriters involved with IPOs to sell more shares than initially agreed upon: usually up to 15% more. That can occur if there is enough investor demand to purchase the shares.
Because IPO share prices can be volatile, the greenshoe option is an important tool that can help underwriters stabilize the price of a newly listed stock to protect both the company and investors.
Understanding the Greenshoe Option
Also called the over-allotment option, the greenshoe provision is part of an underwriting agreement between an underwriter and a company issuing stock as part of an IPO, or initial public offering. The greenshoe option is the only type of price stabilization allowed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The SEC allows this because it increases competitiveness and efficiency of IPO fundraising. It gives underwriters the ability to stabilize security prices by increasing the available supply. It is the responsibility of an underwriter to help sell shares, build a market for a new stock, and use the tools at their disposal to launch a successful initial public offering.
The greenshoe option got its name when the Green Shoe Manufacturing Company was issued the first over-allotment options in 1919.
💡 Quick Tip: Access to IPO shares before they trade on public exchanges has usually been available only to large institutional investors. That’s changing now, and some brokerages offer pre-listing IPO investing to qualified investors.
How Does a Greenshoe Option Work?
During the IPO process, stock issuers set limits on how many shares they will sell to investors during an IPO. With a greenshoe option, the IPO underwriter can sell up to 15% more shares than the set amount.
IPO underwriters want to sell as many shares as they can because they earn on commission as a percentage of IPO sales.
All of the details about an IPO sale and underwriter abilities appear in the prospectus filed by the issuing company before the sale. Not every company allows their investment banker to use the greenshoe option. For instance, if they only want to raise a specific amount of capital, they wouldn’t want to sell any more shares than necessary to raise that money.
There are two ways an underwriter can over allot sales:
At the IPO Price
If the IPO they are underwriting is doing well, investors are buying IPO shares and the price is going up, the underwriter can use the greenshoe option to purchase up to 15% more stock from the issuing company at the IPO price and sell that stock to investors at the higher market price for a profit.
A Break Issue
Conversely, if an IPO isn’t doing well, the underwriter can take a short position on up to 15% of the issued stock and buy back shares from the market to stabilize the price and cover their position.
The underwriter then returns those additional shares to the issuing company. This is known as a “break issue.” When an IPO isn’t performing well, this can reduce consumer confidence in the stock, and result in investors either selling their shares or refraining from buying them.
The greenshoe option helps the underwriter stabilize the stock price and reduce stock volatility.
Types of Greenshoe Options
There are three types of greenshoe options an underwriter might choose to use depending on what happens after an IPO launches. These options are:
Full Greenshoe
If the underwriter can’t buy back any shares before the stock price increases, this is known as a full greenshoe. In this case, the underwriter buys shares at the current offering price.
Partial Greenshoe
In a partial greenshoe scenario, the underwriter only buys back some of the stock inventory they started with in order to increase the share price.
Reverse Greenshoe
The third option for underwriters is to purchase shares from market investors and sell them back to the stock issuer if the share price has dipped below the original offering price. This is similar to a put option in stock trading.
Recommended: How Are IPO Prices Set?
Greenshoe Option Examples
Here’s an example of how a greenshoe option might work in real life.
Once the IPO company owners, underwriter, and clients determine the offering or initial price of the newly issued shares, they’re ready to be traded on the public market. Ideally, the share price will rise above offering, but if the shares fall below the offering price the underwriter can exercise the greenshoe option (assuming the company had approved it in the prospectus).
To control the price, the underwrite can short up to 15% more shares than were part of the original IPO offering.
Let’s say a company’s initial public offering is going to be 10 million shares. The underwriters can sell up to 15% over that amount, or 1.5 million more shares, thus giving underwriters the ability to increase or decrease the supply as needed — adding to liquidity and helping to control price stability.
💡 Quick Tip: Investment fees are assessed in different ways, including trading costs, account management fees, and possibly broker commissions. When you set up an investment account, be sure to get the exact breakdown of your “all-in costs” so you know what you’re paying.
What the Greenshoe Option Means for IPO Investors
The greenshoe option is an important tool for underwriters that can help with the success of an IPO and bring additional funds to the issuing company. It reduces risk for the issuing company as well as investors. It can maintain IPO investor confidence in a newly issued stock which helps to build a long-term group of shareholders.
Although buying IPO stocks can be very profitable, stock prices don’t always increase and sometimes they can be volatile. It’s important for investors to research a company, look at the IPO prospectus, understand what the stock lock-up period and greenshoe options are before deciding to buy.
The Takeaway
Buying shares in IPOs can be a great way to invest in companies right when they go public. Although IPO investing comes with some risks, and IPO stock can be volatile, investment banks and companies going public use tools such as the greenshoe option to minimize volatility.
Whether you’re curious about exploring IPOs, or interested in traditional stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you can get started by opening an account on the SoFi Invest® brokerage platform. On SoFi Invest, eligible SoFi members have the opportunity to trade IPO shares, and there are no account minimums for those with an Active Investing account. As with any investment, it’s wise to consider your overall portfolio goals in order to assess whether IPO investing is right for you, given the risks of volatility and loss.
For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.
Photo credit: iStock/AzmanJaka
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Investing in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) involves substantial risk, including the risk of loss. Further, there are a variety of risk factors to consider when investing in an IPO, including but not limited to, unproven management, significant debt, and lack of operating history. For a comprehensive discussion of these risks please refer to SoFi Securities’ IPO Risk Disclosure Statement. IPOs offered through SoFi Securities are not a recommendation and investors should carefully read the offering prospectus to determine whether an offering is consistent with their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.
New offerings generally have high demand and there are a limited number of shares available for distribution to participants. Many customers may not be allocated shares and share allocations may be significantly smaller than the shares requested in the customer’s initial offer (Indication of Interest). For SoFi’s allocation procedures please refer to IPO Allocation Procedures.
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Mortgage rates initially ticked up a little bit following the release of Tuesday’s slightly hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index data. But they’ve since trended back down and remain well below last month’s levels. Rates are still expected to go down this year.
Last month, average 30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.52%. So far this month, they’ve been trending a bit lower, and they could drop below 6% by the end of the year, according to Fannie Mae’s latest forecast.
But mortgage rates probably won’t drop substantially until we get more data showing that inflation is continuing to slow.
In February, prices rose 3.2% year over year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is a slight uptick from the previous month, which showed prices rising 3.1% on an annual basis.
Federal Reserve officials want to see more data that inflation is coming down before they start lowering the federal funds rate. Once we get closer to a likely Fed cut, mortgage rates should start to fall.
Right now, investors still believe the Fed could start cutting rates as soon as June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. So we could see mortgage rates go down in just a few months.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates increased dramatically for most of 2023, though they started trending back down in the final months of the year. As the economy continues to normalize this year, rates should come down even further.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.2%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they’ll likely rise this year as mortgage rates drop.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.2% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices. But prices aren’t currently expected to increase as much as they have in recent years.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you’ll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.
Market value is a common term used in value investing to describe how much a company or asset is worth on exchanges and financial markets. Essentially it is the value of a security in the eyes of market investors. Understanding the current standing of a business in its particular industry and the broader market is important when making investing decisions.
What Is Market Value?
Market value, also referred to as OMV, market capitalization, or “open market valuation,” is the price of an asset in an investment marketplace or the value the asset has within a community of investors. It is calculated by multiplying current share price in a marketplace by the number of outstanding shares. Read on to learn what market value is and how to calculate market value.
The market value represents the price that investors will pay for an asset, and therefore changes significantly over time. The more investors will pay for the asset, the higher the market value.
What investors are willing to pay depends on various factors, including the fundamentals of the asset itself, as well as the business cycle and current levels of demand for that asset. Market value could be anything from under $1 million for small businesses to more than $1 trillion for large corporations.
It’s easy to determine the market value of frequently traded assets (by looking at their current prices), but harder to determine the market value of illiquid assets, such as real estate or a company, that don’t trade very often. Market value per share is a company’s market value divided by its number of shares.
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Factors that Impact Market Value
Many factors determine market value, including a company’s profitability and its debt levels. Market value fluctuates significantly over time. Market values often move in tandem with the overall market sentiment.
During bull markets or economic expansions, market values often increase, and during bear markets they go down. Other factors influencing market value include:
• The company’s performance
• Long-term growth potential
• Supply and demand of the asset
• Company profitability
• Company debt
• Overall market trends
• Industry trends
• Valuation ratios such as earnings per share, book value per share, and price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio)
Earnings per Share
The higher a company’s earnings per share, the more profitable it is. A more profitable business has a higher market value, and vice versa.
Book Value per Share
Investors calculate a company’s book value per share by dividing its equity by its total outstanding shares. A company with a higher book value than market value may have an undervalued stock.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio)
Investors calculate P/E ratio by dividing a company’s current stock price by its earnings per share amount. A higher P/E ratio means a stock’s price market value might be high relative to its earnings.
💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.
How Is Market Value Calculated?
There are multiple ways to calculate market value. Here’s a look at a few of them:
Income method
There are two methods of calculating market value using income:
• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): To find discounted cash flow, investors project a company’s future cash flow and then discount it to find its present value. The amount it gets discounted reflects current market interest rates along with the amount of risk the business has.
• Capitalized Earnings Method: With capitalized earnings, investors find the value of a stable, income-producing property by taking its net operating income over time and dividing it by the capitalization rate. The capitalization rate is an estimate of how much potential return on investment the asset has.
Assets Method
Using the assets approach, investors find an asset’s fair market value (FMV) by determining how many liabilities and adjusted assets a company has, including intangible assets, unrecorded liabilities, and off-balance sheet assets.
Market method
Using a market-based approach, there are a few more ways market value can be determined:
• Public Company Comparable: This company compares similar businesses that are in the same industry or region and about the same size. Ratios like P/E, EV/Revenue, and EV/EBITDA can help compare all the similar companies.
• Precedent Transactions: Using the precedent transactions method, market value reflects how much investors paid for other similar company’s stock in previous transactions. Investors can get a sense of how much a company’s value is by looking at similar companies.
Example of Market Value
Using the capitalized earnings valuation method, here’s an example of the market value calculation. The formula used when calculating via capitalized earnings is as such:
Market value = Earnings/capitalization rate
Earnings are rather self-explanatory, and the capitalization rate is the required rate of return for investors, a number reached by subtracting a company’s expected growth rate from the investor’s expected rate of return. For this example, we’ll make things simple and say that the capitalization rate is 10%, and the company’s earnings are $1 million
Using the formula: Market value = $1 million/10%
That calculates to $10,000,000.
💡 Quick Tip: Look for an online brokerage with low trading commissions as well as no account minimum. Higher fees can cut into investment returns over time.
Limitations of Market Value
Market value is a very useful tool for understanding how much a company is worth and whether it is a good time to invest or sell its stock. However, it has a few limitations:
• Fluctuation: Company stocks go up and down every day, and, therefore market value also always changes. Various factors affect market value, and it is very dynamic, which is important for investors to keep in mind when making trading decisions.
• Precedent data: It’s easier to find market value for established businesses because it requires historical pricing data to find it. New businesses don’t have such data, making it harder for investors to determine their market value.
The Takeaway
Market value is very useful for analyzing a stock. It is easiest to calculate market value of assets such as stocks and futures that are traded on exchanges because it is easy to access their market prices. Market value for less frequently traded assets can be difficult and requires some assumptions and calculations.
Calculating market value can be useful for investors of all stripes, but it can be easy to get lost in the math. Be sure to double-check your math and consider the limitations of market value before making investing decisions.
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FAQ
Is market value the same as market capitalization?
Market value is the price at which a buyer purchases an asset, and can refer to a company or a security such as a stock, future, or asset. Market cap is the value of the total number of outstanding shares of a company, based on their current market value.
Is market value the same as book value?
Market value and book value per share, or explicit value, are different and can be very different amounts, but they are often used in conjunction by investors looking to gain an understanding of an asset’s value. Book value is the net value of a company’s balance sheet assets, while market value is the price at which a buyer purchases an asset.
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Today brought the release of one of the most consequential economic reports that comes out on any given month: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI measures inflation and inflation is a big deal for interest rates. Higher inflation means higher rates and vice versa. That correlation held true today with CPI coming in higher than expected and mortgage rates moving higher, but the details are more nuanced.
The last time CPI came out (February 13), the most important line item (core month over month CPI) was at the same level as today’s report. The impact on 30yr mortgage rates at the time was a big jump of 0.17% for the average lender. Today’s increase was only 0.05%, and it didn’t even bring rates up to levels seen BEFORE last month’s big jump.
That all adds up to a very nice silver lining for an otherwise downbeat day. It suggests the market is starting to see more convincing signs that inflation and the economy stand a better chance deliver rate-friendly news in the near future as opposed to news that would cause a big resurgence.
But why was today’s outcome so much better? There were some mitigating factors in today’s CPI that weren’t present last time. Most importantly, the largest and most stubborn component of that core month over month number managed to drop back into its prevailing range (last month’s reading represented a spike to the highest level in nearly a year–something that caused investors to worry about new upward momentum in inflation).
All that having been said, to whatever extent the data was “less bad” than it might have been, it also wasn’t great news for those hoping for lower rates. It basically means we’ll have to keep waiting for additional data to provide more confidence that inflation has turned a corner.
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A lot has been written about whether now is the best time to buy stocks.
Many think that it is a good idea, and others are still skeptical. So which one should you believe?
This article will help answer the question once and for all with facts rather than opinions.
But first, let’s look at some statistics:
S&P 500 Total Returns for 2021 was 28.71% (source)
In the past 20 years (2003-2021), the S&P 500 was down three times. (source)
Over the 10 year period of 2011-2020, the S&P 500 averaged 13.9% (source)
With that said, will it be best to invest now?
Honestly, that is an answer no one can give you. And the movies about Wall Street won’t help you either.
However, you can learn to read charts become a technical analysis trader, and have a better idea of where the market is going.
The stock market is a volatile thing. It can go up or down at any time. As the statistics show, it goes up more often than down.
Is it Smart to Invest in Stocks?
The stock market is a great way to make money whether for income or for long-term investments. Plus it is a lot more accessible than you think.
With stocks on an upswing lately, it might be tempting to dive in. But do not get too excited just yet!
You must learn how to invest in stocks.
Are you ready to make money in the stock market? If so, learn the steps to start investing today.
In order to make educated decisions, it is crucial that you understand what makes stocks go up or down.
Since you might be asking yourself whether it is a good time to buy stocks after the market has been on such an upswing for several months. The answer is yes, but there are some important factors you should consider before handing over your money.
This article will discuss how the stock market works and provide you with reasons why now may not be a great time to invest in stocks as well as alternatives that could make sense for you if this is indeed a bad time to purchase them.
Read more!
What is the Stock Market?
The stock market is a system of securities, such as stocks and bonds, in which investors buy and sell ownership stakes to each other on various exchanges using money or their own businesses.
Simply put, the stock market is a place where people invest money.
There are many different ways to invest in the stock market, but one of the most popular ways is through buying stocks.
Investing in stocks is a commonly used way to make money.
In the stock market, people can buy and sell shares of companies they believe will rise in value. You can participate by investing in the stock market by buying individual shares of a company like AMZN (Amazon), investing in an ETF like VTI, or investing with a mutual fund, such as VTSAX.
One former assistant principal, Teri Ijeoma, changed her life when she left her job as an educator and become an active trader.
What does it mean when the stock market is up or down
When the stock market is up, it means that stocks have been doing well.
Conversely, when the stock market is down, it means that stocks are losing value.
You have heard the saying… buy low, sell high.
Stocks are an investment that you can purchase in order to make a profit, but the best time to buy stocks is when they are at their lowest price.
If you bought a stock for $100 and its value increased by 10%, then your stock would be worth $110. However, if you bought 20 stocks at $100 and the value increased by 10%, then your new value is $2,200. If you are trading options, then your return (and risk) is much greater.
When the market is up or down there are always going to be opportunities to make money from the stock market!
The hardest part for the novice investor is to determine when to buy and sell.
Thankfully, there is a great investing course to help you figure out how to invest in stocks and options.
Timing the Stock Market
Can you even time the stock market?
Many people are concerned with timing the stock market because of its volatility. Honestly, no one knows what the stock market will do.
As a technical stock trader, you will learn based on previous actions how the market and individual stocks may react.
When day traders or swing traders “time” the market, they are using time frames to make their predictions. Those traders who manage their risk and potential losses well will do better in the market.
For the average investor or someone going off a friend or Reddit recommendation, timing the market can be detrimental to your portfolio.
The real answer to the question, “Is now a good time to buy stocks?” is that there’s no such thing as an ideal moment. It could be a great time or it could also be terrible timing. There are too many variables and market risks which makes this decision very difficult for investors.
Too many times, investors fall into the trap of panic selling while stock prices are low and buying when stocks are high on the fear of missing out (FOMO).
That is why the common knowledge states don’t time the market.
However, I can tell you that you can time the market. If (and it is a big if) you are willing to put the time and effort into an investing education as you would going to college.
Many people have found success in timing the market.
Why investing is always a good idea
Remember earlier in this post, we stated the stock market has averaged 13.9% over the past 10 years and only had 3 negative years in the past twenty.
Simply put, that means you can make money, and investing is a good idea.
That is better than the flip side of your money sitting in the back earning slightly above 0% and when you account for inflation, your money is worthless.
The stock market is (almost) always following an upwards trajectory.
This means investors are more likely to experience gains in their investments than they would if the prices were going down. Moreover, it’s almost never a good idea to just let your money sit doing nothing for years on end because inflation will eventually force you into losing value at some point.
Instead of waiting until then and hoping for the best, focus on what you want instead of what the market is doing at any specific moment.
Must Read: How To Invest In Stocks For Beginners: Investing Made Easy
Is now a good time to invest?
This is the wrong question. The better question to ask would be “What is a good time to invest?”
It is not always a good time to invest. Before buying stocks, it is important that you do your research and have a clear purpose for investing in the first place. Once you know why you are investing, then it will be easier to answer when now might actually be a good time.
What are your goals for investing in stocks?
Are you looking to make extra money?
Do you enjoy learning about the fundamentals of your favorite companies?
Do you have the time to invest to learn about investing in stocks and executing trades?
The desire to increase your investment accounts and net worth appealing?
If you answered yes, then you are ready to start investing in stocks.
If you said no, then stick to consistently investing in EFTs or mutual funds. That is still a solid investing strategy!
The bottom line is whether you are ready to invest. The stock market will continue to do its thing whether you choose to participate or not.
Why does the stock market just keep going up?
The stock market has been steadily climbing for the long trend.
As a result, it’s important to be aware of the factors that influence how much you can profit from stocks. This includes understanding what drives stock prices and when these markets are likely to go up or down.
The reality is that there is no such thing as an “always” in investing — there will always be downturns at some point for any market, but those dips won’t last forever either.
As history proves, the stock market over time will keep going up.
Why has the stock market dropped?
This is the #1 reason why most people are terrified of investing in the stock market.
The fear of the stock market dropping and losing money. Or maybe they were burned in the previous market corrections in 2001 or 2008.
Typically, the stock market has dropped because of the following:
The global economy is going through a rough patch.
There is fear that the US may be headed for another recession.
The US is experiencing inflation that has caused the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
In other words, investors are uncertain about the future of the global economy and are afraid of a recession in the US, which will have a significant impact on the stock market.
Just remember, the S&P 500 has come back each time after posting a year or two of negative returns.
However, you can still make money as an investor when the market goes down! Learn how to ride that elevator up and down.
What are the best times to trade stocks?
Ask a few different investment gurus and you are likely to get a variety of answers such as:
It is best to trade stocks when the market is down and on a day with low volume. This way, you are less likely to be hit with volatility that could cause your profits to drop.
The best times to trade stocks are when the market is stable, meaning that there are few fluctuations in price. The most optimal time to enter and exit the market is during a period of low volatility.
The best time to trade stocks is when the market is at an all-time high. (very wrong idea, so don’t try this one)
Traders should try and stay away from markets when volatility or uncertainty is high.
It is important to understand the best times for trading stocks in order to maximize profits.
Overall, your trading plan will tell you the best time for you to trade stocks. Over time with practice in a simulated account, you will be aware of the best times for trading.
Your best times will be different than mine; they will vary for all of us and that is okay. We all view the stock market and read charts in our own way.
Best Stocks to Buy Right Now
What are the stocks to invest in right now? Should you buy stocks now?
Well, first of all, I am not an advisor telling you what to invest in. You are responsible for doing your due diligence.
The best stocks to buy are the stocks that you understand the best– YOUR Watchlist!
Typically, that means following 10 stock tickers and learning everything you can about how those stocks move.
Other investing gurus may tell you the best stock to buy is one that has a low price-to-earnings ratio. This is because the company has room for growth, and they are more than likely not overvalued in the market. They look for industries that are experiencing either a slowdown or an increase in competition.
Personally, I like to stick with strong, healthy companies to buy.
Many times the best stocks to buy right now are growth stocks, which have been very successful in 2021. These types of companies grow rapidly and offer significant returns on investment in a short period time frame.
What are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist? These are the most popular stocks investors tend to follow:
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
Advanced Microdevices (Nasdaq: AMD)
Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN)
Meta / Facebook (Nasdaq: FB)
Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA)
Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)
More Best Stocks to Buy
When you invest in these stocks as an investor, it is important that you look for them during their good moments so that your investments will increase significantly over time and always have risk management strategies in place (BEFORE YOU ENTER THE TRADE).
Can You Afford to Buy Stocks?
There are a lot of factors that go into determining the best time for someone to begin investing or trading stocks.
The most important aspect is whether or not you have enough money at your disposal, which can be determined by your personal financial situation.
Other factors that may play a role in determining the best time to trade are whether or not the person trading has a specific investment objective, and if they have a time-sensitive need.
You need to know your long-term goals for buying stocks.
Are you buying stocks as a long-term investor or if you are buying stocks for income?
Either way, you need a solid idea of how to plan to manage your risk and maximize your profit. That is why investing in stocks is so enticing for so many traders.
Read Now: How Fast Can You Make Money in Stocks?
So, should you buy stocks now?
The current market conditions are a great time to buy or short-sell stocks.
However, there are many trading mistakes when investors place a trade.
Whether we are experiencing a bull run or heading into a bear market, there is always money to be made in the stock market. You should not question yourself is it time to buy stocks.
Regardless, you must invest the money in a solid investing education. That is non-negotiable.
If you want to go out and start buying stocks without investing knowledge, that is fine. Just do not complain if you lose more money than the only investing course I recommend. Check out my Trade and Travel review.
You must do your own due diligence when investing in stocks and finding a good time to buy stocks.
This is your investing journey!
Your journey will be different than my investing journey. That is okay because we each will find our niche and how we like to trade stocks.
Back to the original question, is now a good time to buy stocks?
Overall, you must look for the best companies to invest in. That will make you successful at investing.
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Did the post resonate with you?
More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!
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