Low housing inventory and still-strong demand kept prices high in March, according to the latest according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. The annual growth rate in March 2023 was up 0.7%. On a month-over-month basis, the index was up 1.3% before seasonal adjustment.
This was the second month-over-month increase following seven consecutive month-over-month decreases.
“The modest increases in home prices we saw a month ago accelerated in March 2023,” Craig Lazzara, the managing director at S&P DJI, said in a statement. “The National Composite rose by 1.3% in March, and now stands only 3.6% below its June 2022 peak.”
Both the 10-city and 20-city composite price indexes posted annual declines but monthly gains. For the 20-city composite, 19 of the 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending March 2023 versus the 12-month period ending February 2023, with Chicago being the only city to report an increase at 0.4%.
“Low inventory, maintained by an extremely low level of new listings coming onto the market, has fueled demand amongst the few buyers who can afford to stay shopping. As a result, prices started picking back up on a monthly basis in early 2023 following months of price stagnation and declines,” Nicole Bachaud, Zillow’s senior economist, said in a statement. “As inventory remains a challenge in this market, so too will affordability be rocked by stubbornly high prices that aren’t looking to move drastically any time soon. New construction could be the beacon of light the housing market desperately needs right now, as home builders are gaining confidence amongst rising sales, hopefully soon to translate to more residential construction breaking ground in the coming months.”
Yet again, Miami (7.7%) and Tampa (4.8%), reported the highest annual price gains among the 20-cities analyzed, but Atlanta was bumped from the top-three by Charlotte, which recorded an annual price increase of 4.7%.
“One of the most interesting aspects of our report continues to lie in its stark regional differences. Miami’s 7.7% year-over-year gain made it the best-performing city for the eighth consecutive month,” Lazzara said. “Tampa (+4.8%) continued in second place, narrowly ahead of bronze medalist Charlotte (+4.7%). The farther west we look, the weaker prices are, with Seattle (-12.4%) now leading San Francisco (-11.2%) at the bottom of the league table. It’s unsurprising that the Southeast (+5.4%) remains the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.2%) remains the weakest.”
Although March marked the second consecutive month of monthly price increases, Lazzara does not believe the industry is out of the woods yet. “Two months of increasing prices do not a definitive recovery make, but March’s results suggest that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 may have come to an end,” he said. “That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months.”
The average rate in March on a 30-year-fixed rate mortgage in March was 6.54%, with the rate dropping to 6.34% in April.
Relatedly, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) recorded a 4.3% increase in home prices in the first quarter of 2023 from the first quarter in 2022. House prices were up 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. The FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.6% from February.
House prices rose in 78 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters. Per the FHFA’s HPI, the annual price increase was greatest in Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL at 14.1% while the San Francisco metro area experienced the greatest price decline at 10.1%.
Mortgage Rates Too High? (Blame the Fed, Wall Street and Your Neighbor.)
Lenders use several bits of data to set mortgage rates, including trading moves by investors. Without market volatility, the rate could be under 7 percent.
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Mila Adams moved to Utah in May with her husband and toddler son to be closer to family, but they didn’t expect to be living with her husband’s parents nearly a half year later.
The couple’s search for a home of their own became a race to stay ahead of the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Each time rates climbed — passing 5, 6 and, recently, 7 percent — the size of the houses they could afford shrank.
“We looked at some new builds and some older homes, but it seems like with every rate hike our buying power goes down, and we have to readjust our budget,” said Ms. Adams, 29, who was looking for a three-bedroom house roomy enough for a family with plans to grow. “The high prices of homes are not going down as quickly as the rates are going up to adjust for that loss of buying power. The prices are just kind of stubborn.”
Once rates crossed 7 percent, the couple’s mortgage pre-approval was rescinded because the costlier loan, combined with her husband’s student debt from dental school, would have pushed their debt level too high.
which recently crossed the 7 percent threshold before retreating slightly on Thursday, could be as much as a full percentage point lower if investors, homeowners and prospective buyers hadn’t been shifting their behavior so sharply in reaction to the Fed’s moves.
“A whole percentage point on your mortgage rate is due to what is going on in mortgage markets,” said Scott Buchta, a mortgage analyst at Brean Capital. “The volatility in the market has been passed through to consumers as well.”
@JARennison
Tara Siegel Bernard covers personal finance. Before joining The Times in 2008, she was deputy managing editor at FiLife, a personal finance website, and an editor at CNBC. She also worked at Dow Jones and contributed regularly to The Wall Street Journal. @tarasbernard
A version of this article appears in print on , Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Taking Stock Of Climbing Home Rates. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe
Despite being a big banking hub, the top mortgage lenders in North Carolina are mostly nonbanks.
In fact, just three of the top 10 are depository banks, with one credit union and the rest nonbank direct lenders.
However, several of the top lenders in the state also happen to be headquartered in North Carolina.
Those names include Bank of America, Truist Financial, and State Employees’ Credit Union.
Read on to see who topped the list in 2021 for mortgage lending overall.
Top Mortgage Lenders in North Carolina (Overall)
Ranking
Company Name
2021 Loan Volume
1.
Rocket Mortgage
$11.5 billion
2.
Wells Fargo
$8.1 billion
3.
State Employees CU
$7.3 billion
4.
Truist
$6.3 billion
5.
Movement Mortgage
$5.3 billion
6.
Pennymac
$4.7 billion
7.
Freedom Mortgage
$4.0 billion
8.
UWM
$3.5 billion
9.
loanDepot
$3.1 billion
10.
Bank of America
$2.8 billion
Yep, you probably guessed right. Rocket Mortgage was the top mortgage lender in North Carolina last year with $11.5 billion funded, per HMDA data from Richey May.
In second was San Francisco-based bank Wells Fargo with $8.1 billion, followed by Raleigh based-State Employees’ Credit Union with $7.3 billion.
Next up was Charlotte-based Truist Financial with $6.3 billion, formerly two companies (BB&T and SunTrust Bank).
Completing the top five was Movement Mortgage with $5.3 billion, a South Carolina-based direct lender.
The rest of the best included Pennymac, Freedom Mortgage, United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), loanDepot, and Bank of America.
UWM is a wholesale lender that works exclusively with mortgage brokers, meaning you can’t work with them directly.
Top Mortgage Lenders in North Carolina (for Home Buyers)
Ranking
Company Name
2021 Loan Volume
1.
Movement Mortgage
$3.7 billion
2.
Wells Fargo
$3.2 billion
3.
Truist
$2.9 billion
4.
State Employees CU
$2.9 billion
5.
Rocket Mortgage
$2.5 billion
6.
Pennymac
$2.3 billion
7.
Atlantic Bay Mortgage
$1.9 billion
8.
Fairway Independent
$1.7 billion
9.
Chase
$1.4 billion
10.
Guaranteed Rate
$1.4 billion
If we focus solely on home purchase lending, Fort Mill-based Movement Mortgage was the top dog with $3.7 billion funded.
It was more than enough to beat out Wells Fargo’s $3.2 billion, often the purchase loan king.
In third and fourth were NC’s own Truist and State Employees’ Credit Union, both with about $2.9 billion funded.
In a more distant fifth place was Rocket Mortgage with $2.5 billion in loan origination volume.
The other players in the top 10 included Pennymac, Atlantic Bay Mortgage, Fairway Independent Mortgage, Chase, and Guaranteed Rate.
Top Refinance Lenders in North Carolina (Existing Homeowners)
Ranking
Company Name
2021 Loan Volume
1.
Rocket Mortgage
$8.9 billion
2.
Wells Fargo
$4.7 billion
3.
State Employees CU
$4.1 billion
4.
Freedom Mortgage
$3.3 billion
5.
Truist
$3.0 billion
6.
Pennymac
$2.4 billion
7.
loanDepot
$2.3 billion
8.
UWM
$2.2 billion
9.
Better Mortgage
$1.9 billion
10.
Mr. Cooper
$1.8 billion
Now a look at the mortgage refinance leaders in the state of North Carolina.
Unsurprisingly, national #1 mortgage lender Rocket took the top spot with $8.9 billion funded.
That was nearly double second place Wells Fargo, which managed just $4.7 billion in refinance loan volume.
Once again, State Employees’ Credit Union had a strong showing, taking third place with $4.1 billion.
Florida-based refinance specialist Freedom Mortgage took fourth with $3.3 billion, while Truist grabbed fifth with $3.0 billion funded.
Others in the top 10 included Pennymac, loanDepot, UWM, under-fire Better Mortgage, and Mr. Cooper.
It was mostly household names on this list, as it usually is. State Employees’ Credit Union did a good job of keeping it local, despite refinances being mainly price driven.
Those who rely too much on refis might have trouble in coming years as the market leans heavily on purchase transactions.
Top Mortgage Lenders in Charlotte
Ranking
Company Name
2021 Loan Volume
1.
Rocket Mortgage
$4.3 billion
2.
Wells Fargo
$3.0 billion
3.
Movement Mortgage
$2.6 billion
4.
Truist
$1.8 billion
5.
Bank of America
$1.7 billion
6.
UWM
$1.5 billion
7.
loanDepot
$1.3 billion
8.
Pennymac
$1.2 billion
9.
Freedom Mortgage
$1.1 billion
10.
American Security Mtg
$1.1 billion
Top Mortgage Lenders in Raleigh
Ranking
Company Name
2021 Loan Volume
1.
Rocket Mortgage
$2.4 billion
2.
Wells Fargo
$1.8 billion
3.
State Employees CU
$1.4 billion
4.
Truist
$1.4 billion
5.
UWM
$972 million
6.
Pennymac
$885 million
7.
loanDepot
$841 million
8.
Movement Mortgage
$779 million
9.
Better Mortgage
$752 million
10.
Freedom Mortgage
$690 million
You May Have Never Heard of the Best North Carolina Mortgage Lenders
Size isn’t everything. It can be advantageous to be large to get things done in the mortgage industry, but it may also prove to be a nuisance if you’re too big.
Sometimes, a nimbler lending partner, such as a mortgage broker or credit union, could get you to the finish line faster, with fewer headaches along the way.
I understand that when it comes to financial decisions, using a big, household name can feel like the safe move, but consider all your options.
Obviously take the time to vet any company or individual first, but know there are many different ways to get a mortgage.
Whether it’s an individual broker, local bank, online lender, credit union, or major financial institution.
Chances are there are some really highly-rated mortgage companies out there that probably don’t advertise or get much press.
And that’s just fine, as long as they’ve got good reviews, offer competitive pricing, and provide quality service.
Your debt-to-income ratio—the total of all your monthly expenses divided by your gross monthly income—is one of several factors that impact your mortgage rate, our experts say. Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI) determines the loans you can get and a higher DTI generally means you won’t get access to loans with lower mortgage rates.
“The better programs have thresholds with lower debt-to-income ratios. And better programs translate into better rates,” says Kevin Leibowitz, a mortgage broker at Grayton Mortgage.
Impact of DTI on buying choices
In New York City, co-op boards have their own DTI requirements for buyers, usually 22 to 24 percent. “Co-ops are usually stricter than banks when looking at DTI,” says Deanna Kory, a leading agent at Corcoran.
Of course lenders are also assessing your financial viability. “Every bank has guidelines with regard to the maximum debt-to-income they allow in order to approve a loan,” says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage.
When you’re shopping for a mortgage, a loan officer or mortgage broker will offer you a rate based on your borrowing profile. This includes your credit score, your down payment, whether you’re buying a condo, second home, or investment property, and whether the mortgage is a cash-out refinance. “All these factors are layered on top of each other and it becomes a decision-tree matrix,” Leibowitz says.
Many lenders will allow for DTI ratios up to 50 percent but the terms available for the loans with a higher DTI are typically worse than those with lower DTI ratios. “Many adjustable and most jumbo lenders cap the maximum DTI at 43 percent in order to qualify,” Cohn says. If you are financing more than 80 percent and applying for private mortgage insurance (PMI), Cohn says the cost of the PMI increases with a higher DTI.
Put another way—if you have a small down payment, a low credit score, and a high DTI, Leibowitz says, “either the programs are going to disappear or the programs that are available come with worse terms.”
For example, let’s say a condo buyer has a low credit score and a high DTI and they are putting 50 percent down on a $500,000 apartment. That’s not necessarily a bad loan for a lender, Leibowitz says. A buyer is unlikely to default on $250,000 of equity or cash they’ve just put down.
However a higher DTI might rule out access to a loan with a better rate, Leibowitz says.
How to improve your DTI
One of the best ways to improve your DTI ratio is to limit or pay down any consumer-related debt. This might mean paying off your credit card debt, delaying a big purchase, holding off on a leasing arrangement for a new car, or setting up a loan repayment program for any student debt.
Swiss bank UBS Group AG plans to wind down a business in its US mortgage unit that focuses on “to-be-announced” (TBA) trading, Bloomberg reported late last week.
The decision is part of UBS’s strategy to focus more on financing mortgage originators, the outlet said, citing an anonymous source discussing non-public information who asked not to be identified.
“We are fully committed to our lending business, which supports independent mortgage originators,” UBS spokesperson Erica Chase told Bloomberg in an email.
The number of positions affected by the closure is unclear. However, the unit’s managing director, Michael Sudnow, will be leaving, according to Bloomberg.
UBS didn’t respond to HousingWire‘s request for comments.
Mortgage-backed securities in the U.S. are generally traded on a TBA basis. The term TBA is derived from the fact that the MBS that will be delivered to fulfill a TBA trade is not designated at the time the trade is made.
In a TBA trade, the seller agrees on a price, maturity, coupon, and face value of the bonds without specifying what securities will be delivered to the buyer on the agreed upon closing date.
The mortgage-trading decision comes on the heels of UBS working to integrate the operations of Credit Suisse Group AG.
Switzerland’s central bank offered Credit Suisse liquidity assistance on March 15 after its involvement in a series of corporate collapses spooked clients, who began withdrawing money, which led to a drop in share prices.
In less than a week, Swiss National Bank announced UBS would buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs – or $3.4 billion — in stock and assume a loss of as much as 5 billion francs.
A recent filing from UBS showed the Swiss bank was rushed into buying its smaller rival, a deal in which UBS took a hit of about $17 billion due to the takeover.
According to the National Retail Federation, we’ll spend $68.8 billion outfitting our students for school this year. Yes, I said $68.8 billion. Sounds like a lot of money, right?
More than 80% of the nearly 8,700 people surveyed say that the still-crappy economy has affected the way they’ll shop for school supplies. For example:
30.7% will comparison-shop online
38% will buy store-brand or generic products
44.6% will spend less overall
Good ideas all, but I’d add another tactic: Start early.
Ideally, you’ve already begun. No? Then start looking now if you really want to save money. Don’t wait until two days before Labor Day and then go the one-stop-shopping route. The OSS retailers get you through the doors with a few loss-leader prices and make their money back on everything else.
The NRF notes that families with kids in elementary and secondary school spend an average of $603, and parents of college students fork over about $808. This includes clothing and electronics as well as notebook paper.
Can’t afford to spend that much? Don’t want to spend that much? Start by asking yourself…
What Do We REALLY Need?
Don’t buy stuff you’ve already got. This sounds elementary, as it were, but apparently it isn’t. Each year my sister and I buy school supplies to donate to a social services agency. And each year I see parents buying things like backpacks, lunchboxes and three-ring binders for the glum children they’ve towed into the store. I wonder whether the previous year’s backpack, lunchbox and binder…
Wore out
Spontaneously combusted
Were lost in a poker game
Maybe. But it’s also possible that some parents buy new because, well, it’s a new year. To which I say: Are you out of your mind? Why are you instilling the relentless need for new Stuff when the old Stuff might work just as well?
Have your kid to go through dresser, closet and desk. Send her spelunking under the bed for stray markers. Make a pile of crayons, spiral-bound notebooks and other stray educational tools. Inspect the three-ring binder for cracks. Test the backpack straps and make sure the zippers still work.
Congratulations. You now have less to buy. But maybe not much less. That’s because…
Your School’s “Must Have” List is Longer Than My Leg
A kid might have to bring everything from dry-erase markers to a personal box of tissues. Just for gits and shiggles I checked one of these lists.
Elementary-aged kids need, at minimum: a backpack, gym shoes, tissues, lunch bag, pencils, crayons, white glue, markers, erasers, scissors, pocket folders, binder, notebook paper, dividers, composition book, colored pens and a ruler.
What, no particle accelerator?
Warning! The following statement makes me sound really old.
In my day, we brought a three-ring binder, notebook paper and pencils. If we couldn’t afford paper pr pencils the school provided them. Crayons and scissors were doled out as needed for projects. Only the teacher had markers. Dinosaurs picked us up and delivered us back home.
Times have changed, so watch the office-supply stores (Staples, Office Depot, Office Max) for impossibly cheap school-supply sales. This morning I saw packages of pencils and index cards for one cent each. Buy the maximum amount allowed and you may get enough to last most (or all) of the school year.
Hit those sales as early as possible each week, because other parents have the same idea. Loss leaders may be sold within hours of the opening bell. If the ad doesn’t specifically prohibit rain checks, ask for one.
Note: Your third-grader may plead for a new lunch kit on the grounds that the other kids will laugh when he takes his PBJ out of a “Batman” lunchbox. He might be right. In our increasingly media-driven universe, it’s mortifying to eat from a pail emblazoned with the wrong superhero.
Or he might just be playing you for a sucker. (It happens.)
You might not mind buying a new lunchbox every time the fads change. But maybe you’re wondering how you’re going to pay for everything on that list and still keep the lights on. Or maybe you have an aversion to replacing items that are still perfectly usable. If so, then float a compromise: If you give in on the lunchbox, he’s not getting a new backpack. (Nor should he, if the old one is in good shape.) Get one of those insulated lunch kits, which tend to be more generic in appearance, rather than a box with a cartoon character on it.
Tip: Put a note on your June 2012 calendar to inventory what your kid lost or “forgot” to bring home, then visit the school’s lost-and-found. The L&F box at my daughter’s elementary school looked like a department store. How in the heck don’t parents notice that their kids’ lunch boxes, backpacks, notebooks or winter coats (!) didn’t make it home one day?
If money is really tight (hi there, all you downsized parents!), try these frugal hacks:
Look around your house for pencils and pens. Hint: The only place they aren’t is…right by the phone.
Whenever you’re in a place that gives away writing implements, take one and say thank you. If your fourth-grader is embarrassed to be seen with a credit-union pen, keep them around for doing homework and save the Bics and Dixon Ticonderogas for school.
If last year’s spiral-bound notebooks were only partly used up, tear out the old pages and start afresh.
Don’t give pencil sharpeners to kindergarteners or first-graders. They get a little carried away.
Hand sanitizer really is required in many schools. Small bottles of the stuff will likely go on sale at drugstores and office-supply emporia. Here’s the rule: Junior keeps it in his backpack, not his desk at school, so you can refill as necessary from the jumbo bottle you got at Costco.
Start looking now for discounted gift cards to pay for these things as well as for any clothing (more on that below).
Truly desperate? Talk to the school nurse or principal about doing a little “shopping” in the lost-and-found. At my daughter’s school, unclaimed goods were given to kids whose parents couldn’t afford certain items.
New, or New to You?
Who came up with the idea of the back-to-school wardrobe? The people who sell the wardrobes, that’s who. Before you re-kit your kid, think about whether it’s really necessary.
Understand: I am not advocating that your child go to school in shoes that pinch or jeans that show her ankles. What I am saying is that there’s no need to re-do a wardrobe if her clothes still fit and are reasonably presentable.
Just sayin’.
Having just-said it, allow me to suggest some ways to find lower prices on new clothes.
For starters, who says it has to be new? Consignment stores, thrift shops, and garage sales are all potential clothing sources. My niece uses all three sources and pays pennies on the dollar for name-brand clothing.
Clothing swaps are another possibility. Organize them through sports teams, parent groups or your place of worship. Online swap sites like ThredUp might be just the ticket.
Don’t forget The Freecycle Network, either — I see kids’ clothing on there all the time. Some parents even post pictures.
Remember: Nobody has to know your stuff isn’t new unless you choose to tell them. You probably shouldn’t, incidentally, since not everyone is frugal and some people are creeped out by the idea of clothes other people have worn. (What, they think no one has ever tried on the clothes they bought from the department store?)
Tip: If used clothes bug you, wash them. Problem solved.
New Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Expensive
Start watching the clearance tables, because some of those summer duds — jeans, T-shirts, et al. — will work for September and maybe beyond. (They’ll also work for next April; if prices are irresistible, buy a size up for spring.)
Tip: Live in a warm climate? Lucky dog. Just stock up on remaindered summer garb for the rest of the year.
Online stores have clearance sales, too. This is easier to do for younger kids and/or kids who fit in basic sizes, and who don’t care if you pick out their clothes. Be sure to look for online coupons and free-shipping codes through sites like Retail Me Not and Savings.com.
Don’t enjoy tracking bargains? Enlist the help of a price-comparison website such as Pricegrabber, FatWallet, and FindersCheapers. Tell these sites what you want and let them do the hunting and gathering. You might even be able to set a deal alert and receive an e-mail when those Levis go on sale, or a refund alert if something you already bought went on sale.
Excited for School
It’s not that I don’t think you should spend anything on your kids come September. On the contrary: I believe that there’s nothing like that new-crayon smell. A couple of symbolic purchases can help your child get excited about a new school year.
Kidding! Few children are truly excited about the day after Labor Day. (Full disclosure: I was. Then again, I got called “teacher’s pet” a lot.) It’s fun to see their friends again, but getting back into the educational harness is always a period of adjustment. Seeing that Junior has all the necessary tools can help re-orient him back into that universe.
Bring him into the equation by asking him to look through the Staples or Office Max flyers with you and compare what’s on sale to the list of necessary supplies. Suggest that money saved by sale prices and judicious re-use of last year’s stuff could defray the cost of a coveted item. You know, like those shoes that are $20 more than you want to pay.
A special purchase might add a bit of frisson and make the transition somewhat easier. You’d also be modeling my personal mantra: Save where you can so you can spend where you want.
Finally: Some cultures start the school year with candy or other treats, to emphasize the sweetness of knowledge. Consider instituting this tradition in your own household by serving a smoothie loaded with berries or slices of mango and pineapple on the first day of school.
Avoid doughnuts or Froot Loops, though. They may lead to running with scissors.
School supplies photo by Steven Depolo. Crayon photo by Chris Metcalf. Photo of the bouquet of pencils (which J.D. loves) by Melissa Doroquez.
Pinching pennies doesn’t mean you can’t make yourself pretty. Yes, it’s true that personal-care products and services can take a big bite out of your budget. By the time you’ve paid for your salon visit, your skin cream, your hair product, and your lip balm, you can easily be out $100 or more in any given month. You don’t want to overindulge and blow a lot of money on personal appearance. All the same, it’s important to take care of yourself, and it’s possible to do so frugally. Here’s how.
Do Less
I’ll tell you a secret: I haven’t washed my hair in weeks. I rinse it with water every morning when I take my shower (in my fancy, newly-repaired shower that now features hot and cold running water!). But I only shampoo and condition it about once a month. When I do, I use a 50-percent solution of shampoo and water. This means I’m using about 1/60th of the shampoo I used to use when I washed my hair every day with full strength shampoo. Needless to say, one bottle of shampoo lasts me a whole lot longer.
There’s a whole “no-poo” movement for people who don’t want to shampoo their hair. A lot of them rinse with baking soda and vinegar instead, but I’ve found that even that is optional.
But you don’t have to dive into the deep end to minimize your beauty routine. Simply taking good care of yourself can dramatically cut down on the number of beauty products you need to use. When I asked readers for their favorite DIY beauty tips, a lot of them boiled down to simple self care.
Simple, free things you can do to take care of yourself without the need for products include:
Get enough sleep
Drink lots of water. No — I mean more water than that. Lots of water.
Smile!
Do It Yourself
Whether it’s doing your own manicure or making your own deodorant, there are lots of ways you can cut down on personal care expenses by embracing the DIY spirit. Look at each of your regular personal care expenses and ask: Would this be cheaper if I did it myself?
Some ways to take charge of your beauty routines include:
Have a friend cut your hair. This clearly doesn’t work for everyone, but if you have a relatively simple cut and don’t need it to look perfect all the time, having your hair cut at home by a helpful friend or family member can save you a lot of money. Haircuts are probably my biggest personal care expense, so I try to space out trips to my stylist by trimming my hair at home and seeing her once every few months.
Use oils as skin cleansers. Instead of indulging in expensive skin treatments, many of my friends swear by the oil cleansing method for cleaning and moisturizing their skin. I’ve never used the exact method, but I have used olive oil as a skin moisturizer for years and love it.
Make skin scrubs out of sugar or salt. It’s surprisingly easy to make very good salt scrubs at home with sea salt, massage oil, and a little essential oil. These are great for home use and make lovely gifts.
Making your own toothpaste. It’s easy to make your own toothpaste. You can do it with just baking soda and water, or you can get a little fancier. Either way, it will totally get your teeth clean. Confession time: I did this for a year or so and then went back to using Tom’s of Maine. It was just too weird to switch away from the toothpaste I’d grown up with. For me, toothpaste turns out to be one of the products I prioritize spending on, as I’ll discuss below.
Make your own deodorant. Making your own deodorant is dead simple and it comes out great. Plus you can scent it any way you like. If mixing a few ingredients is too much for you, or if your skin is very sensitive, one commenter on the Instructables article linked above suggests getting a small spray bottle and filling it with apple cider vinegar to spritz under your arms.
Virtually any beauty product can be made simply and cheaply at home. Lip balm, soap, lotion, face masks, shampoo: A quick Google search will turn up DIY recipes for all your favorite stuff.
Doing it yourself isn’t always worthwhile. Some DIY approaches, like making your own soap, can be time-consuming and expensive. Sometimes you can’t easily replicate the quality you’d get from a commercial product. But often a DIY solution is fast, cheap, and easy. It’s usually worth considering.
Prioritize Your Personal-Care Spending
Once you’ve minimized your beauty routines to the really worthwhile stuff, you’ll probably find you have a few luxuries you’re loath to part with. I have a dear friend who cuts her own hair, makes her own shampoo and deodorant, and never wears make-up. She splurges on $75 French moisturizer for her face, though. Nothing else works as well on her delicate skin. Since this is her one personal care luxury, she feels good about paying for the product she really loves.
You may find that homemade skin cream, or cheap stuff from the drugstore, suits you just fine, but you’re unwilling to part with your Aveda hair product or your monthly visits to your stylist. Great. This isn’t an exercise in deprivation. It’s about examining your spending so you can prioritize paying for quality on the things you really want, while saving money on ones that are less important to you.
How have you saved money on your personal care routines? Tell us your favorite DIY beauty tricks in the comments.
Inside: Trade and Travel is a legitimate investing course to learn how to make money in the stock market. See my personal view as a student.
I have been in the personal finance industry for a long time and have watched gurus with CFP and many more designations struggle to make money consistently in the stock market.
There are many concepts on how to trade the stock market.
Teri’s IWT system works.
It’s legit.
I’m a part of her investing course. I have seen the results. $1000 a day club in my LIVE account. Yes.
So, you get to read my Invest with Teri review first.
Teri is able to break down investing into the stock market like no one else I have seen.
You can read a book or blog and find many different concepts that work for them. Then, walk away with your head spinning and quit on the idea of trading and lose a bunch of money along the way. This is why most people leave it to professionals (which is a mistake with that pesky 1% asset management fee).
The Invest with Teri Method is a 7 Step Process that simplifies how to invest in the stock market.
She goes into detail on each of the seven steps to make sure you pick the right companies, limit your risk, know when to buy, and when to take profit.
Plus you have access to a private Facebook group and countless hours of coaching calls to really understand the IWT method.
This is how I am choosing to finance the life I want.
Okay, now that we got that out of the way… let’s dig into the details of the Invest with Teri review and learn how to travel and travel.
This is what you want? Right?
Make more money and have more time freedom.
Enough sitting on the sidelines… read this IWT review and then sign up today.
Honestly, if you have any money in the stock market, you need to take this course to understand the fundamentals.
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What Are Online Stock Trading Classes?
If you’re interested in taking stock trading classes, there are a few things to consider before jumping into the world of investing. Stock trading is an investment that can be profitable if done correctly and is a way to grow your money.
Stock trading courses are a great way for newcomers to learn about the stock market. Also, courses are fantastic for those who want to refine their investing skills or maybe stop the bleed of money from trying on their own.
The Invest with Teri Ijeoma course provides a more structured learning path and can help you avoid some of the common mistakes made by novice traders.
In order to get the most out of a stock trading course, it is important to find one that matches your individual needs and goals. Plus one that can offer support and guidance because learning to trade is a learning curve.
Who Should Take Stock Trading Classes?
It is possible to learn the ins and outs of stock trading on your own without taking any classes.
However, for those who want a more structured learning experience, or for those who want to have access to a community of traders, stock trading classes can be a great option.
Taking stock trading classes can be a great idea for people who are interested in getting into the industry. The stock market is one of the most popular industries to get involved with, so it is likely that you’ll want to pursue a side hustle that may lead to a career in this field.
There are many different types of stock trading classes available, so it is important to do your research and find the one that best suits your needs.
Even if you are an index fund investor doing it on your own, this investing class is great knowledge to understand how the market works beyond “I hope it keeps going up.”
Must Read: How To Invest In Stocks For Beginners: Investing Made Easy
Trade and Travel 2.0
Right now, Teri and the rest of her coaches are doing a MAJOR overhaul on the signature course.
Her design team is currently working really hard to create an updated look and feel so you can experience Trade and Travel even better than before.
However, there will be changes – some we know about and some we don’t.
What we Know Today:
A significant Price increase happened (like double to $10k)
Shorting and gaps will be included in the main Trade and Travel course.
Limited time support on coaching calls. (However, a subscription model for additional coaching will be available.)
What You’ll Learn in the Trade and Travel 1.0 Course
The Trade and Travel course is an online course that will teach you everything you need to know about the world of trading, and more!
First of all, Invest with Teri along with Trade and Travel are used interchangeably. They are both the same AMAZING course that will teach you to make money in the stock market.
You will learn the Teri Ijeoma trading strategy.
The Invest with Teri 1.0 course is divided into two sections:
Travel & Travel – This is the basic course to understand fundamentals and to learn how to make money as the stock market goes up.
VIP Program – This is an advanced course that covers shorting, gaps, and options.
The great news… you can start with the basic Trade & Travel program and upgrade to VIP at a later date.
If any of this sounds foreign to you, Teri is one of the best teachers I have ever met. She breaks break down investing in the stock market like no one else I have seen. She is able to take difficult concepts and make them easy.
Simply put, Teri offers a course that teaches you everything you need to know about investing.
Later, in this Invest with Teri review, I will detail the difference between the two courses and what you will learn.
Teri’s Purpose of Trade and Travel – Financial Independence
The purpose of the course is to help students learn how to generate wealth.
Students can use the extra income earned from the course to supplement their income, pay off debt, or save so they can solidify their financial independence.
There is no doubt that in order to achieve financial independence, you need to invest in yourself. This means learning new skills, working on your mindset, and making smart choices with your money.
With a positive attitude and a determined spirit, anything is possible!
Want to Learn More about Investing?
How do you trade with Teri?
The privilege to have one-on-one coaching with Teri herself is very rare. However, she is known to offer group mastermind sessions for her VIP students.
So, in order to trade with Teri, you must enroll in the full $5000 course and wait for the next opportunity to trade with her.
Trade And Travel Program
The Trade and Travel program is the fundamental part of the investing course. This section will teach you the basics of the stock market and how to make money on the way up.
Teri’s trading strategies focus on risk management and she has seen many of her students achieve success with trading.
To be upfront in this Trade and Travel review, you will learn:
Learn how to pick stocks
Understand how the stock market works and how you can make money off it
Recognize why risk management is the most important aspect of trading
Understanding how to read charts
Learn the best places to buy and sell a stock could be
Be able to tell the story of the candles
Understand if your stock trade has a strong likelihood of being profitable
Determine how many stocks to buy based on your risk tolerance
How to place a trade at your brokerage
Manage your trade and exit based on your trading plan
That is a highlight of what you will learn in the basic Trade and Travel program.
Trade And Travel VIP Investor Program
The VIP program is the advanced piece of the course once you learn the fundamentals of the Trade and Travel program.
For those looking to upgrade to the VIP program, you will learn:
Make money when the market goes down.
How does shorting the stock work
When to look for gaps and what they mean
What is globex?
Options! This is everyone’s favorite part of the course!
Understand how to make money with option contracts
Risk management with options
Plus so much more!
Plus you can rewatch all of the curriculum and coaching calls over and over until you get it. That aha moment!
Both Travel & Travel and VIP offer live zoom training each week. Plus there is a vault of recording coaching calls to review.
Supportive Trading Community
Teri has built a supportive trading community of fellow students who have gone through the course.
Each trade cuzzin offers encouragement, advice, moral support, and feedback to each other.
This supportive community can help people overcome their anxiety and doubts when trading and investing.
You can find this supportive community on Facebook groups, Telegram groups, Clubhouse clubs, local meetups in your city, and people have connected to create a mastermind group. Honestly, there are plenty of people available to make sure you are successful on your journey.
Don’t forget… There are weekly live calls and chart parties.
This is how many people have turned 10k into 100k.
My Personal Trade and Travel Reviews
This is one of the best educations I have received.
My biggest regret is that I did not enroll in the course sooner (same as the time before I upgraded to VIP).
In all honesty, this course is a better education than spending hundreds of thousands on a college degree.
Personally, I meet Teri during FINCON, a huge conference for personal finance content creators and brands.
I loved how Teri spoke during her presentation and quickly reached out to learn more about her Invest with Teri course. Also, I was intrigued by the $1000 in a day club.
As always, I investigate every single company or platform that I recommend.
Obviously, this course has an eye-shocking price tag when you first see it. However, once you start earning your money back, you quickly realize how undervalued her course is.
As I always tell my readers… if I wouldn’t put my time, energy, or money on the line, then I am not going to tell you about it. I will only recommend products, services, and courses only that I truly know that work.
My View as a Trade and Travel Student
After a few months of debate if I could afford to spend the money on this investment course…
I became a Trade and Travel student in February 2021.
As outlined above, the course is jam-packed with information. I thought with my background in personal finance I would have a leg up over the others. However, I quickly learned that I need to view the stock market from Teri’s point of view and put blinders on to others’ opinions or styles of trading.
There are a ton of ways to make money in the stock market. This is one of them.
You can google and probably find many more investment courses and rabbit holes to follow. Investing is one of the most popular Reddit Personal finance topics. People want to learn to trade and most are looking to be fed information.
You have heard that saying, “teach a man to fish and he will never go hungry.”
The same holds true for completing this course, “Teach a trader to make money and you will be more profitable than your dreams.”
The best thing about life is you get to decide what you want to do, spend your time, and budget your money. Investing in this course is a big pill to swallow and I get it. However, I would not be so adamant about telling others about this course since I see a path for people to stop the stress with money.
I am successful with trading. Now, it is your turn to become successful.
This is by far the best investing course I have ever seen. 1000% recommended by me personally.
$1,000 In A Day Club
Here is proof. I made the $1k club in my live account and $10K in SIM.
I am a part of the trading community.
What exactly is the $1000 in a day club?
This exclusive club is for those traders who have made over $1k in a day.
Many IWT traders have received this plaque and part of this $1000 in a day club.
If you want to invest money and make $1000 a day this is how to start.
This is how I am choosing to finance the life I want.
Get one step closer to reaching your dreams and financing your life!
How Long Does It Take to Learn to Trade Stocks?
The time it takes to learn how to trade stocks depends on your personal learning style.
It typically takes 2 to 3 years to learn how to trade stocks.
By taking an in-depth course, you can shorten your learning curve.
Teri’s Approach to Learning to Trade Stocks
More importantly, the results you see trading stocks will depend on the effort put in to learn the curriculum, manage the trade, minimize your risk, and prepare your mindset.
Teri’s goal for her student is to earn 1% of our capital consistently.
This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. You have to put in the hard work to reap the benefits (aka profit).
For example, some people learn better by reading and others prefer watching videos. Some people may find that they learn best by following an instructor in a live trading room.
Who is Teri Ijeoma?
How many years of trading experience does Teri have?
Teri Ijeoma has over 10 years of trading experience.
Once she left her job as an elementary school assistant principal, she took off to travel the world. Those around her started asking questions and she taught her first group of students in Thailand.
Teri enjoys enlightening people on investing strategies and is passionate about building wealth.
Combining her trading experience with her teacher background, Teri is a talented educator in the investing world.
Teri has been featured on Forbes, NBC, CBS, ABC, Black Enterprise, Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Fox News, Comcast – just to name a few!
She thrives by teaching others how to invest, so they can afford the life of their dreams.
Teri has made significant amounts of money through trading and is motivated by helping others achieve success.
Check out Teri discussing her $1,000,000 in a day profit. Yes, one million dollars in a day!
I’m scared to lose my real money trading. Can I still take the course?
Don’t want to risk your money, but are curious?
You can practice in a simulated account before you move to real money. Then, you can make mistakes. Learn from those mistakes. Understand how the stock market moves. Make wins.
The bottom line you can make real money in the stock market. You just have to be armed with knowledge and a trading system that works.
That is why most people lose money in the stock market! They don’t understand how the stock market works. They have poor risk management strategies and tend to select the wrong companies to trade with.
In the Trade and Travel course, you will walk away with so much investment knowledge and support from other people in the course to be successful.
Afraid to trade individual stocks? Teri’s process works with ETFs too!
Is Invest with Teri Reviews Reddit? Is this a scam?
As with any popular r/personalfinance thread, this is one that comes up often…is Invest with Teri legit?
There is a lot of mixed information on the web when it comes to Invest with Teri.
Some people have had great experiences and made a lot of money, while others have had negative experiences and lost money.
Since I have been forthcoming that I am a student of her course, I would recommend active trading as a way to supplement your income.
However, you must be willing to put in the time and effort to see the results.
And honestly, that is where most people give up because you must put in the effort.
At Invest With Teri, they believe anyone can learn how to invest and generate income through investment. They offer a variety of courses on how to invest, as well as a community of support to help you get started.
Their program has helped people from all backgrounds achieve their financial goals.
Did this Trade and Travel Review Convince You?
Teri Ijeoma is a millionaire trader and coach who shares her tips and tricks for success.
Trading is a skill that can be learned, and with the right education, anyone can do it successfully.
Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme – it takes time and effort to learn.
Don’t waste your time or money on being a self-taught trader. Take a course from an expert.
I am part of this trading community and so excited to be a trade cuz!
Start building another income stream for yourself.
Invest with Teri Ijeoma teaches you how to make a lot more money than you currently are. Very possibly, trading can help you replace your current income or even exceed it
To be successful, you need to invest in this investing course, develop a solid trading plan and stick to it.
Get one step closer to reaching your dreams and financing your life!
Be the first to know when Teri releases a coupon code for her Invest with Teri course.
Do you have an Invest with Teri Coupon?
It is VERY rare that Teri puts out a coupon code.
However, if she does, I always notify my email list who have been on the fence about enrolling.
Typically, these coupon codes are valid for a limited time only.
Trade and Travel FAQs
Obviously, you are doing your due diligence before enrolling in this course, which I completely understand. I did too! I spent a lot of time researching prior to enrolling in this course.
Here are answers to the most asked questions about Invest with Teri, Trade and Travel, VIP program, as well as Teri Ijeoma.
Is the Trade and Travel course for new investors?
Yes, the Trade and Travel course is for both new investors and experienced investors.
Honestly, you are more likely to lose money in the stock market by trading on your own rather than spending money on the best investing course available.
The course is designed for everyone, regardless of experience level.
There are different courses available within the program for more advanced students (like shorting and options).
How long does the program take to complete?
You can complete the course within a weekend if you binged watch everything.
However, it takes 8 weeks to thoroughly go through the curriculum.
The main Trade and Travel course is broken down into sections, and modules include videos, tutorials, pdf worksheets, quizzes, and more.
The course instructor, Teri Ijeoma, estimates that it will take 8 weeks to complete the online course material before you begin trading.
In addition, there are plenty of coaching calls, which are filled with gems of information that you can watch.
This investing course is much like obtaining a college degree. The more you study, the better results you will have.
What will I learn in Invest with Teri course?
You will learn how to trade stocks and options based on her Invest with Teri method.
This is a solid, effective investing strategy.
Learning how to effectively trade stocks and make 1% consistently is the goal. This is higher than the market returns on any given day.
How much does Teri ijeoma course cost?
The cost of the Trade and Travel 2.0 course is $10000.
In addition, there is a payment plan available that allows you to pay in installments which is a great option without interest or hidden fees.
Honestly, this investing course is undervalued given the amount of knowledge you will gain.
Is there a payment plan?
Yes, there is a payment plan.
This is a great way to invest in the program with an affordable payment plan based on what you can pay today.
Right now, you can start the course with Payment Plans as LOW as $208/Month.
Can I purchase the Trade and Travel course and upgrade to the VIP program later?
Yes, you can always upgrade to VIP and pay the $2,500 difference. This is something you can do at any time.
I purchased the course to learn the basics and when I made money to pay for the VIP course I upgraded. Many students have done the same.
My gem of advice… eventually, you need to upgrade to VIP to fully understand the chart analysis as well as make money on the way down.
How much money do I need to start trading?
Many students start with $500.
This question is very difficult to answer because it depends on your personal finance situation and the type of trading you want to do.
The best advice is to start small and grow your account.
Trading stocks and options come with risk as such you must recognize that it is possible to lose all of your trading money.
Personally, I recommend starting with the amount you are comfortable losing. For me, I started with $3000.
Again, you do not need a lot of money to start trading. Check out this interview with Chris Calvin (aka Trade with Coach). He started with $500 and quickly grew it to 5 figures!
What trading platform does Teri Ijeoma use?
In her Trade and Travel course, she reveals which brokerages she has used in the past.
Right now, she is known to use Tradestation.
Recently, in her 5 Day Take the Trade Live Challenge, she set up a brokerage account with TD Ameritrade.
Do I have to attend coaching calls live?
You don’t have to attend coaching calls live. Also, all of the live trainings are recorded except the weekly Trade and Travel Q&A.
By attending a live coaching call, you have the opportunity to ask questions and get help from the instructor.
You can access the class recordings at your convenience once the coaching call is uploaded.
Personally, I attend the VIP coaching calls live to get the best out of the experience.
Remember, if you miss a class, you can always watch the recording later. You will have lifetime access to the coaching call recordings.
How long do you have access to the curriculum?
LIFETIME ACCESS!
You will have lifetime access to the curriculum.
That is pretty amazing to have these resources available forever.
You can review the curriculum as many times as you like.
Personally, I have gone back and reviewed many modules and coaching calls again (and again).
Is there a Facebook group? How long do you have access?
In fact, there are two Facebook groups for students that are run by the IWT coaching staff.
One Facebook group focuses on the general IWT method and the other is specific to VIP strategies.
In addition, there is a Trade and Travel sponsored Telegram group.
These Facebook groups are a great way to connect with other students and to learn from each other.
You have access to the group for as long as you are enrolled in the course.
What’s Teri’s Instagram handle?
First of all, there are so many fake accounts for Teri Ijeoma, Invest with Teri and the Trade and Travel Course.
Teri’s real account is @teriijeoma
Beware of imposters accounts and scams.
Can I share my course log-in information with others?
No, this is not allowed.
Each person should purchase the course separately.
The only exception is you can share with your spouse.
What is the refund policy?
According to their policy, refunds are not available for any of their courses. (You can read that here).
However, they do not want unhappy students or I don’t want unhappy trading cuz.
So, if you need additional assistance, reach out to their support team at [email protected] and one of the fabulous coaches will assist you.
Honestly, this makes 100% sense as a student. There is so much knowledge and information in the course that it is not surprising.
If you truly put in the time and effort, you will see success. You have to put in the work though.
Just a reminder… trading is a risky investment if you don’t know what you are doing. You can lose money in the stock market.
Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!
With all the seesaw movement in the first eight months of 2022, I wanted to throw out some mortgage rate predictions for the rest of the year.
Note that these are just my predictions, and subject to being completely wrong. Or with any luck, maybe right, as I’m feeling slightly optimistic.
The 30-year fixed averaged 5.30% in the latest week, per Freddie Mac’s most recent weekly survey.
It was down from 5.54% a week earlier (a large amount over seven days) as the Fed indicated the worst of its own rate rises might be behind us.
There’s also talk of a looming (or present) recession, which generally leads to lower interest rates.
Mortgage Rates Could Fall Back Into the 4% Range Later This Year
While the first half of 2022 was the worst (or one of the worst) on record for mortgage rates, the second half could be pretty good.
I say pretty good because it’s hard (basically impossible) to erase all the increases seen during the first six months.
After all, 30-year fixed mortgage rates essentially doubled before beginning to fall significantly in the latest week.
So it’s going to take a lot, too much really, for rates to return to those levels.
And I’m not going to tell you how high rates were in the 1980s versus now! No one cares. All that matters is present day.
Now some good news. While there have been some ebbs and flows in 2022, the recent downward movement has actually been substantial.
In fact, there might be enough pullback to get some homeowners back in the refinanceable population.
This would be great news for those looking for a lower rate, and welcome news for mortgage lenders, which have seen applications plunge in recent months.
It could spare additional mortgage layoffs if staff are able to ramp up production during these last five months of the year.
Will We See an Uptick in Refinance Candidates?
Per the latest monthly Mortgage Monitor from Black Knight, there were fewer than 500,000 refinance candidates left as of June 2022.
At the start of 2022, there were about 11 million, with the all-important cohort falling about 95% year-to-date.
In just an 18-month span, refi candidates went from an all-time high to the lowest total since the turn of the century.
This obviously wreaked havoc on the mortgage industry, leading to lots of layoffs, whether they made the news or not.
It has also made it very difficult for some mortgage lenders to stay afloat, seeing that 2021 was a record year.
Assuming mortgage rates are able to reverse course, it could be a boon for struggling lenders, at least temporarily.
As you can see from the chart above, the few refinance candidates remaining have mortgages that were originated in the early 2000s.
In other words, they probably aren’t going to refinance if they haven’t already, or as Black Knight points out, “restart the clock on a 30-year commitment.”
After all, they could be 20 years into a 30-year payoff, so it would make little sense to refinance in most situations.
Where I See Mortgage Rates Going in the Second Half of 2022
I believe the recent downward movement in mortgage rates is meaningful, and perhaps the start of something even bigger.
Similar to the spike in gas prices in early summer, which have since fallen, mortgage rates may have overshot their mark and are now trending lower.
That means the 30-year fixed could fall back into the high 4% range or even lower during the rest of 2022.
But like gas prices, mortgage rates will remain well above levels seen back in January, when the 30-year fixed averaged about 3.25%.
This means the recent pullback, and potential larger improvement in mortgage rates, will likely only benefit new home buyers and select others.
For example, those who purchased a home recently when mortgage rates peaked might be able to apply for a rate and term refinance and shave 1% off their existing rate.
Meanwhile, those who obtained mortgages from 2019-2021 likely wouldn’t benefit from a refinance in most situations.
The exception could be those who had poor credit or a high LTV at the time of origination, and will now be able to refinance to a better rate.
Either way, any improvement in mortgage rates will be a boon for the fraught mortgage industry.
How low they go is another question, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates back in the mid-4% range at some point this year.
As noted in another post, mortgage rates are lowest in December on average, so we could see them march lower and lower over the next five months.
Similar to gas, rates tend to be highest in late spring and early summer, then drift lower in the fall and winter months.
This means a refinance or home purchase could make a lot of sense this holiday season, especially if home prices fall and demand wanes.
A smaller chance of a bidding war, a lower listing price, and a markedly better mortgage rate sounds like a winning combination.
Any Mortgage Rate Retreat Could Be Short-Lived
While I do believe mortgage rates will get even better as the months go on, the mortgage rate rally could easily reverse course in 2023.
At some point, the Fed’s unwinding of its enormous stable of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will have to take place. And they’ll need to get more aggressive in doing that.
Even with a looming or current recession, along with a possible economic downturn, the unleashing of hundreds of billions in MBS could cause mortgage rates to shoot back up.
This means the second half of 2022 could wind up being a sweet spot for mortgage rates in the long run.
It might be one of the last chances to get a 4% 30-year fixed rate before they resume their climb and find themselves back in a 5-6% range or even higher.
So if you do have a mortgage rate in the 5-6% range, or you went with an adjustable-rate mortgage to save some money, be sure to keep a close eye on developments over the next few months.
It might be possible to snag a more desirable rate in October, November, or December before they potentially rise again.
Yet another year is about to come to an end, and that means it’s time to look ahead to what next year has in store.
I think just about everyone wants to see the back of 2020, though it wasn’t all bad news.
The housing market actually held up surprisingly well, and mortgage lenders enjoyed record mortgage originations.
Anyway, without further ado, here are the “2021 mortgage rate predictions” from a number of major mortgage and real estate groups, along with my own outlook.
MBA 2021 Mortgage Rate Prediction
First quarter 2021: 3.1% Second quarter 2021: 3.1% Third quarter 2021: 3.2% Fourth quarter 2021: 3.3%
Like in past years, we’ll begin with a prediction from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
They publish a monthly Mortgage Finance Forecast that includes predictions for 30-year fixed mortgage rates on a quarterly and annual basis, with rates all the way to 2023.
We’ll focus on the 2021 numbers and throw in 2022 for good measure.
As you can see, the MBA expects the 30-year fixed to remain relatively flat in the first half of 2021, before rising ever so slightly in the second half.
Their quarterly average for the 30-year fixed is 3% flat for the fourth quarter of 2020, so the 3.1% average would also represent a slight increase.
They expect mortgage rates to rise to 3.6% in 2022, which is a more significant increase that homeowners would actually notice and likely disapprove of.
For the record, the MBA anticipated 30-year fixed rates in the 3.7% range for all of 2020, so they missed the mark pretty badly a year ago.
Fannie Mae 2021 Mortgage Rate Prediction
First quarter 2021: 2.8% Second quarter 2021: 2.8% Third quarter 2021: 2.8% Fourth quarter 2021: 2.8%
Now let’s turn to Fannie Mae, which predicted the 30-year fixed to average between 3.5% and 3.6% for all of 2020. Hopefully they’ll be a little more accurate in 2021.
They seem to be playing it as safe as possible for the coming year, forecasting a 2.8% 30-year fixed mortgage rate for all four quarters.
Not only do they not see it changing throughout 2021, they also don’t see it changing from the fourth quarter of 2020.
Their 30-year fixed rate is currently set at 2.8%, per their latest monthly Housing Forecast, so if they’re right, homeowners and prospective home buyers will continue to enjoy record low mortgage rates for another year.
Their 2022 prediction is also super steady, with the 30-year fixed only expected to rise 10 basis points to 2.9%. I’m sure everyone out there would be okay with that.
Freddie Mac 2021 Mortgage Rate Prediction
First quarter 2021: 3% Second quarter 2021: 3% Third quarter 2021: 3% Fourth quarter 2021: 3%
Next up is Fannie’s brother Freddie Mac, which is also in the prediction game. Last year, they pegged the 30-year fixed at 3.8% for the entire year. That made them the most pessimistic of the bunch.
Will they be a little more positive this year or chase their bad prediction with another one?
The answer is yes and no, though they’re still being sticklers and keeping the 30-year fixed out of the 2% range.
As to why, they believe the Federal Reserve will keep its key monetary rate low until the broader economic outlook improves and inflation rises, which at the moment doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon.
All in all, their forecast is as boring as they come, with mortgage rates forecast to remain unchanged at 3% from the third quarter of 2020 through the end of 2021.
They don’t provide a 2022 forecast, so it’s unclear when they believe the mortgage rate party will finally come to an end.
Realtor 2021 Mortgage Rate Prediction
First quarter 2021: 2.9% Second quarter 2021: 3% Third quarter 2021: 3.1% Fourth quarter 2021: 3.2%
Next we’ve got a prediction from the National Association of Realtors, specifically from NAR chief economist Danielle Hale.
Last year, they expected the 30-year fixed to approach 4% around this time, but now they’re playing it a bit safer.
The Realtor.com 2021 Forecast calls for a 30-year fixed averaging 3.2% throughout the year before closing out at 3.4%.
Meanwhile, their U.S. Economic Outlook from November 2020 is a bit brighter, as seen above.
That’s the highest rate prediction in the survey, and well above the 2.71% average rate for a 30-year fixed at the moment.
They tend to the gloomiest predictor each year, so this isn’t a surprise. Remember, the fear of rising interest rates is a great motivator to perhaps, buy a home…
NAR sees existing homes sales rising 7% from 2020, and the median sales price climbing 5.7%, which means “sellers will get top dollar as buyers struggle with affordability.”
CoreLogic Forecasting Low Rates Through 2023
Another mortgage company that focuses entirely on housing market data, CoreLogic, sees 2021 being another fantastic year for mortgage rates.
In fact, they believe interest rates will remain pretty close to current levels through 2023. In other words, you’ve got time to buy a home or refinance your mortgage.
While they don’t provide a quarter-by-quarter analysis, they did say they expect “30-year fixed-rate loans to remain below 3% during early 2021 and average about 3.2% during the next three years.”
Simply put, flat rates in 2021 with some gentle rising seen over the next few years, but certainly nothing to fear.
Zillow Sees 2021 Mortgage Rates Staying Put
While Zillow didn’t provide specific numbers, they seem to be of the mind that mortgage rates are going nowhere fast.
In their latest Market Pulse from December 11th, author Matthew Speakman said, “Absent a monumental shift in the economic outlook – for instance, if a much larger-than-expected fiscal relief package is passed – mortgage rates are unlikely to head meaningfully higher anytime soon.”
That means they should continue to hover near record lows for the foreseeable future.
He also noted that lender risk appetite has increased, so borrowers who need more unconventional home loan financing may be in luck.
Zillow expects home values to rise another 7.9% over the next 12 months, which is excellent news for existing homeowners, but more bad news for renters and first-time home buyers wanting to find a permanent residence.
The Truth’s 2021 Mortgage Rate Forecast
Finally, I’ll throw my hat in the ring and make a prediction myself, as I have in years’ past.
A year ago, I said mortgage rates would be mostly flat, which wasn’t the case. They fell almost exactly one percentage point from around 3.75% to 2.71% today.
Of course, I did say there would be opportunities throughout 2020 due to hot-button issues like the election and Brexit, which still aren’t 100% clear now.
I also said it was possible we’d see new record lows this year, which we did. At last count, 14 new record lows.
So what do I think 2021 has in store? Well, I certainly think there are plenty of potential catalysts that could drive mortgage rates even lower than they are today.
While it does get tougher to break new record lows these days, with rates running out of room to fall, it’s still possible things could get even better.
Of course, most of these recent record lows have been mere basis points, including one literal one-basis point move from 2.72% to 2.71%. That wouldn’t even register for most mortgage lenders.
Still, that doesn’t mean more substantial interest rate improvements aren’t in the cards.
If my data regarding a Democrat challenger winning the presidential election holds true, we could see lower mortgage rates both in February after the inauguration and at year-end.
However, as I’ve said in past years, I expect rates to ebb and flow as they always do. That means depending on what time of the year you look, rates could be higher, lower, or just plain flat compared to 2020.
All in all, I don’t expect nearly as much movement this year as last, but I do see one or two new record lows at some point.
There’s just too much unsettled business out there still, including Brexit, COVID-19, and the U.S. presidential election.
All that uncertainty and potential bad news has the ability to push mortgage rates to new all-time lows.
And remember, when mortgage lenders aren’t as busy they have a tendency to lower rates to attract more business.
When they inevitably see loan volume drop from record levels in 2020, that exact scenario could play out.