Q&A

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Weekly housing inventory data

We will start with the price cut data percentage because it deserves a detailed explanation. 2022 was a historic year for housing as we had the most significant home sales crash ever, and mortgage rates went from 3% to 7% in the same year. That type of move is very abnormal and home sales simply collapsed, especially in the second half of 2022. 

Naturally, some people thought home prices would crash in 2023 as many market players said prices always follow volume. But not only did that not happen, home prices quickly got back to all-time highs. Then something even crazier happened: mortgage rates shot to to 8% but the number of homes taking price cuts never went above 2022 levels during this time.

In fact the price cut percentage consistently stayed 4% below 2022 levels. I believe this is due to the fact that home sales aren’t crashing anymore like they were in 2022. What happened between June 2022 to June 2023 can be confusing, so if you need more clarity I suggest listening to this podcast.  

Here is the price cut percentage data for the same week in other years:

  • 2023 38%
  • 2022 42%
  • 2021 27%

As you can see, affordability is an issue, and the price cut percentage is higher now than in any period from 2015-2021, but still below 2022 levels.

Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data. Last year, according to Altos Research, the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct. 28. the seasonal peak this year was on Nov. 17.

  • Weekly inventory change (Dec. 1-Dec 8): Inventory fell from  555,717 to 546,424
  • Same week last year (Dec. 2-Dec. 9): Inventory fell from  550,302 to 536,409
  • The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
  • The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 569,898
  • For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,050,971 

The new listing data has been trending at the lowest levels ever for 17 months now. What 2023 data has shown me is that even with mortgage rates heading toward 8%, new listings data didn’t take a new leg lower — it stayed remarkably consistent all year long. This is a positive, and something I discussed on CNBC months ago, that we should see some flat-to-year-over-year growth data in the second half. Since most sellers are also buyers, getting growth in this data line will be a positive for home sales in 2024.

New listings data last week

  • 2023 43,188
  • 2022: 39,149
  • 2021: 46,881

In 2024, what we want to see is new listings data grow back to 2021 and 2022 levels in the spring. This will bring more inventory to the marketplace and get more sellers, who will also be buyers.

Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield

Last week was another interesting week for bond yields and mortgage rates. We almost broke under 7% mortgage rates for the first time in a while, getting as low as 7.04%. We ended the week at 7.09%, and this was during jobs week where had two weaker-than-anticipated labor reports and two better-than-anticipated reports. Regarding jobs Friday, I wrote this article on why the Federal Reserve was wrong about inflation and jobs.

We have a big week ahead of us. For now I would focus on the 4.10% level on the 10-year yield since we bounced on that level twice last week. We have two inflation data points this week and if both come in lighter than anticipated and the Fed gives a dovish outlook, that is the best case for the 10-year yield to fall below 4% and get us mortgage rates below 7%.

Purchase application data

There was some confusion over the purchase application data this last week: The unadjusted data showed 35% week-to-week growth and the seasonal adjusted data showed a slight decline of 0.03%. We always take the seasonal adjusted numbers no matter what. Just be mindful of purchase apps around the holidays.

Since Mortgage rates have fallen from 8% and are now near 7%, purchase apps have had four positive and one flat weekly print. This makes the year to date count 22 positive prints, 23 negative prints and 2 flat prints. Clearly we have a positive trend here in purchase apps which is typically the normal with a 1% move in rates. But again, we are working from a low bar here in this data line and we will need at least 12-14 weeks of positive growth trends to have it been something material.

The week ahead: Fed and inflation week

Ok, here we are heading into Christmas and the question is: will the Fed be the good Grinch going into Christmas or the Grinch we see for 93% of the movie? There is no rate hike coming of course, but what the Fed says matters a lot, especially what Chairman Powell says in the Q&A portion of the press conference. Inflation data is key as always, because we wouldn’t be talking about rate cuts in 2024 if the growth rate of inflation was at 5%-8% year over year. We also have retail sales coming up this week so we will be keeping a close eye on all of these reports.

Source: housingwire.com

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With it being the first trading day of a new month and a Friday, it’s hard to determine the extent to which traders planned to buy bonds today providing an absence of the proverbial whammies.  At the very least we can say not only were there no whammies in either of today’s two key events, but both were arguably slightly supportive.  

The volume response relative to the directional trading suggests the takeaway on Powell was more mixed (higher volume, but less of an initial rally). The gradual gains that follow speak to the “no whammies” trade as markets waited to see if Powell would say something bad for bonds in the Q&A portion. 

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Mortgage Q&A: “Is now a good time to refinance my home?”

If you’re one of the few people asking this question right now, the short answer is most likely no.

And the reason it’s a no is because mortgage rates have skyrocketed over the past 18 months or so.

But like everything else in the mortgage world, the answer does depend on the situation.

Not everyone has the same mortgage rate, nor do they have the loan product, or the same needs.

Very Few Homeowners Benefit from a Refinance Right Now

  • A refinance typically only makes sense if you can obtain a lower mortgage rate in the process
  • This is very difficult to accomplish at the moment with rates averaging 7%+
  • Most homeowners already refinanced a couple years ago when rates were priced around 3%
  • Refinancing will make sense again once rates fall and/or more borrowers take out mortgages at today’s higher rates (giving them a future refinance opportunity)

First things first, there are two main mortgage refinance options available to homeowners, including the rate and term refinance and the cash out refinance.

There is also the streamline refinance, which is a fast-tracked type of rate and term refinance.

For simplicity sake, a rate and term refinance allows a borrower to lower their interest rate, change their loan term, and/or switch loan products.

The cash out refinance allows a borrow to tap their home equity and perhaps change their rate, term, and loan product as well.

At the moment, very few borrowers are applying for rate and term refinances because interest rates aren’t favorable.

Conversely, everyone and their mother was applying for one back in 2020 and 2021, when mortgage rates hit record lows.

This made perfect sense because you could swap your existing 4-6% mortgage rate for one in the 2-3% range, or even in the 1% range if it was a 15-year fixed mortgage.

Rate and Term Refinances Are Virtually Nonexistent

Times have changed, and now that mortgage rates are closer to 7%, there’s very little reason to pursue a rate and term refinance.

A new report from ICE revealed that only about 5,500 rate and term refinances have been originated per month, on average, over the past year industrywide.

To put that in perspective, there have been roughly 650,000 rate and term refis funded each quarter going back 15 years.

Today, it’s closer to 16,500 per quarter, which is record low territory. It’s also a pretty clear sign that a rate and term refinance doesn’t make sense for most people.

As a rule of thumb, if you can’t lower your existing mortgage rate by say 1% or more, it doesn’t make sense given the closing costs, the time, and the hassle.

And resetting the clock on your mortgage in the process. So unless your current mortgage rate is say 8.5% or higher, it likely doesn’t make sense.

The one caveat is someone who is removing a co-borrower or spouse from their loan out of necessity. But even this is being avoided if at all possible due to the great rate disparity today.

The bulk of these types of refinances is coming from legacy vintages, aka older home loans.

Eventually when interest rates fall, those with today’s 7-8% mortgages will make up the bulk of rate and term refis.

[When to refinance a home mortgage]

The Cash Out Refinance Share Is Nearly 100%

On the other side of the coin, we’ve got a cash out refinance share that has hit record highs lately.

Per ICE, it grabbed a staggering 96% market share in the fourth quarter of 2022, the highest level on record, and hasn’t really changed much since then.

Ultimately, the only reason to refinance a mortgage right now is to tap equity, often because the homeowner needs cash.

This explains why virtually every refinance originated today includes cash back to the borrower.

Because most homeowners have very low mortgage rates, often locked in for the next 30 years, there has to be a compelling reason to give that up.

And that reason is a dire need for cash, even if it means losing their ultra-low mortgage rate in the process.

But while the cash out share is extremely high, the volume of cash out refinances remains low relative to prior years.

Despite tappable equity being close to its 2022 highs, less than $8B was withdrawn from the housing market via a cash-out refinance in August.

While it might sound like a large number, it’s about 70% below the highs seen last year, a consequence of those higher interest rates.

In other words, the overall volume of cash out refis is also way lower than it has been in past years, again because of the high mortgage rates available.

Instead, those who need money are likely opening a second mortgage, such as a HELOC or home equity loan.

Both options allow the homeowner to keep their first mortgage untouched, meaning they don’t lose the low fixed rate.

[How to Lower Your Mortgage Rate Without Refinancing]

Who Would Refinance Their Mortgage Today?

So let’s walk through some different scenarios to see who, if anyone, could benefit from a refinance right now.

Imagine a homeowner who purchased a $500,000 property in 2021 when 30-year fixed mortgage rates were 2.75%.

The property is now worth $600,000 and they want cash to pay for other expenses.

There’s basically no way they’re going to give up their 2.75% rate, so a second mortgage would be the only deal that made sense.

Now imagine a homeowner who purchased a property for $300,000 in 2004 that is now worth $650,000. They need cash and their remaining mortgage balance is only around $130,000.

They might consider refinancing and pulling out cash because their existing loan is small and their old rate may have been 6% anyway.

It might not be ideal, since they were only a decade from being free and clear, but at least they aren’t giving up a low rate on a big loan balance. And again, they need cash.

When it comes to a rate and term refinance, we’ll likely need mortgage rates to come down a bit more from current levels to appeal to recent home buyers.

If these buyers have been taking out mortgages with rates in the 7-8% range, it’s possible they’ll be able to save money by swapping the old loan for a new one at say 6%.

In the meantime, homeowners can pay extra each month to reduce the interest expense, assuming they have the means to do so.

Read more: Alternatives to Refinancing a Mortgage

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

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Apache is functioning normally

The PMI Group today launched a foreclosure prevention website aimed at educating at-risk homeowners about their alternatives as record losses continue to rattle mortgage insurance companies nationwide.

The site looks to minimize the effects of the mortgage crisis by urging homeowners to consider all of their options before walking away from their homes, citing a recent Freddie Mac survey in which more than half of borrowers failed to make contact with their mortgage lenders before foreclosure occurred.

The site features a Q&A section regarding the potential negative impact of a foreclosure along with two videos that highlight workout programs and a how-to for selling a home to avoid foreclosure.

“Private Mortgage Insurance (PrivateMI) is not a consumer product, it is insurance for the lender in the event of borrower default, but the way the PrivateMI industry is built, regulated and reserves for losses, aligns our best interests with those of the borrower,” John Jelavich, Vice President of Homeownership Preservation Initiatives, wrote in a statement to TheTruthAboutMortgage.com.

“We hope that the content on the web site, and on YouTube, motivates borrowers enough to reach out and ask for help.”

Recently, the PMI Group issued new streamlined guidelines for the modification of insured loans and expanded the authority of its servicing partners as part of its ongoing home preservation efforts.

On May 12, the company swung to a $274 million first-quarter loss after its U.S. mortgage insurance unit incurred a net loss of $172.5 million due to increased claims, larger claim sizes, and steeper loss reserves.

Shares of PMI group were down 16 cents, or 2.78%, to $5.60 in afternoon trading on Wall Street, well off their 52-week high of $50.39.

(photo: brymo)

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

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Apache is functioning normally

Do you want to sell printables online and make extra money? If so, you may be interested in learning about one of the most popular printables courses out there – Gold City Ventures E-Printables course. In this Gold City Ventures Review, I will help you learn everything that you can about this course so that…

Do you want to sell printables online and make extra money? If so, you may be interested in learning about one of the most popular printables courses out there – Gold City Ventures E-Printables course.

In this Gold City Ventures Review, I will help you learn everything that you can about this course so that you can decide if you should take it or not.

Gold City Ventures E-Printables course is one of the best printables courses out there, and it has a lot of positive reviews. But, is it for you? Continue reading to learn more!

Please click here if you want to sign up for the E-Printables course.

Key Takeaways

  • Selling printables on Etsy can be a great side hustle because you just need to create them once, and you can sell them an unlimited amount of times.
  • Gold City Ventures E-Printables course will teach you how to create, market, and sell digital files on Etsy for passive income.
  • This course is for you if you’re looking for a fun and profitable side hustle selling printables online.
  • You don’t need previous graphic design skills or to be tech-savvy in order to start this side hustle – this course is great for beginners.
  • You can sell printables on other sites too with what you learn from this course, such as at Teachers Pay Teachers.
  • There is a free workshop: Earn Money Selling Printables.
  • The Gold City Ventures course cost is $247.

Do you want to make money selling printables online? This free training will give you great ideas on what you can sell, how to get started, the costs, and how to make sales.

Gold City Ventures E-Printables Course Review

What are e-printables?

E-printables are a type of digital product that you can create and sell online. They are design files that customers can purchase and then print at home or use digitally.

You’ve probably used a printable before and so have many others. The printable business is very popular right now, and many people use printables every single day.

You can make printables for all sorts of things, like holidays (such as Valentine’s Day, Halloween, and Christmas), baby showers, bachelorette parties, birthday celebrations, greeting cards, a habit tracker, calendars, educational resources, grocery shopping, a meal planner, digital planners, party invitations, jar labels, gifts, and more.

Once you decide what to sell (which this course will definitely help you do), and after you’ve finished designing them (which the course will also help you do), you can sell them on platforms like Etsy or your own website. When someone makes a purchase, you earn money without having to physically make or ship anything.

If you want to learn how to make and sell e-printables, courses like the Gold City Ventures E-Printables course can teach you step-by-step. They’ll show you important skills like designing, marketing, and selling online so you can have a successful e-printables business.

Recommended reading: How I Make Money Selling Printables On Etsy

Why sell printables on Etsy?

Selling printables on Etsy is a popular way for people like you to earn money with minimal effort. Once you create and list your designs, you can keep earning from repeat sales without doing more work.

This means that this can be a great way to make passive income. If you make a popular printable and set up your shop to be easily found in searches, it can keep making sales over time without needing a lot of extra work.

This means that you can choose when to work and can do it from anywhere with internet access. This can be especially great for people who want a part-time job or to work from their own homes.

Plus, making and selling printables doesn’t have actual materials for you to buy or the need to spend money on shipping. This leads to earning more money compared to selling physical items as you’ll have low expenses.

Etsy also has a big audience, which makes it a great place to sell your printables.

What is Gold City Ventures?

Gold City Ventures could be exactly what you need to learn how to generate passive income. If you’ve ever thought about selling printables on Etsy, then the Gold City Ventures E-Printables course can help you turn this into a fun way to make extra money from home.

Gold City Ventures is a website that sells a full training course that teaches you how to earn money by selling printables online.

Cody Berman and Julie Berninger, the founders, created this course to help others learn from their own successful experiences in running Etsy shops and making money online.

Julie makes over $1,000 per month in her Etsy shop, The Swag Elephant, and Cody was hooked on printables since earning over $700 in passive income in one week while on a ski vacation.

Some of the success stories from people who have taken this course:

  • Sasha H. is an accounting professional and mother of two who sells budgeting printables to help families reach their money goals. Ever since taking the course, she has made over 10,000 sales in her printables store.
  • Jen G. took the course in 2019 and since then has made over 7,200 sales with her online shop.

What’s in Gold City Ventures?

Below, I will be talking about what is in the E-Printables course.

What’s included in the Gold City Ventures E-Printables course?

The E-Printables course by Gold City Ventures is designed to teach you everything you need to create and sell digital products on Etsy.

This course comes with step-by-step instructions on how to make money selling printables, from brainstorming what to sell all the way to listing your printable on Etsy. This course will teach you what to do, even if you are brand new. The course also comes with free templates which will reduce the amount of time you spend creating printables, as they give you over 30 done-for-you templates for Canva that you can just make small edits to and then list in your shop quickly.

Even if you are brand new to graphic design, this course will teach you everything that you need to know.

The modules included in the Gold City Ventures E-Printables side hustle course are:

Module 1: Getting Started – This module is an introduction to the course and gives you an overview of what you will learn.

Module 2: What Should You Sell? – These lessons will give you background information on what exactly a printable is, over 50 printable ideas, and more.

Module 3: Getting Started Making Printables – These lessons will teach you how to start making printables and includes finding fonts and pictures and a seller handbook.

Module 4: Canva Overview – This module gives you an overview of Canva, which is a graphic design tool that you will use to make printables.

Module 5: How To Make Printables With Canva – You will learn how to create a design in Canva in this module, as the module name suggests. You will learn how to use their Canva templates, how to make thank you cards, gift tags, coupons, and more.

Module 6: How To Make Canva Templates – This module will teach you how to make templates that you can sell.

Module 7: Creating Editable Printables With Corjl – These lessons will teach you how to use a different graphic design tool to create editable printables that you can sell.

Module 8: Packaging Your Printable – This module will teach you how to package your printables for sale as well as best practices.

Module 9: Making Listing Images – These lessons will show you how to make listing images, such as what a person sees when they search on Etsy for a product. This will be the image that entices them to click on your printable listing.

Module 10: Listing Your Product – These lessons teach you how to start your shop, how to list your product, how to decide what to sell a printable at, and more.

Module 11: Keyword Research Tools – This module will help you create better searchable listings for your products, such as how to do keyword research and all about Etsy SEO.

Module 12: Marketing And Advertising – These lessons go over coupons and sales, how to promote your printables on Pinterest, and more.

Module 13: Optimizing Your Shop – This module teaches you how to improve your sales, find a niche, and see success.

Module 14: Etsy Sellers App – This module goes over the Etsy Sellers App, how to monitor orders, and how to talk with customers.

As you can see, there are many helpful modules and lessons included in this course.

On top of all of that, you will also learn their seasonal product strategy. One of the reasons why students in this course make sales so quickly is because they follow their seasonal product strategy. They fully outline their seasonal trends strategy including all of the tools and resources you need. Some students have even made sales on their first day in the course with their Etsy printables business.

How much is the Gold City Ventures course?

The Gold City Ventures E-Printables course costs $247.

There are free resources that can help you get started, too, such as the free workshop: Earn Money Selling Printables. This free workshop will teach you how to get started selling printables. You will learn different ideas for printables to sell, how to get started on Etsy, and how to actually make sales.

Also, you can sign up for this free ebook that helps you figure out where to start when it comes to selling printables on Etsy. This can be a great way to get started and learn how to sell digital downloads on Etsy.

Who is the Gold City Ventures course for?

The Gold City Ventures course is for people who want to make money selling printables. It doesn’t matter if you’re new to digital design or already sell on Etsy. This course gives you helpful tips to do well in the e-printables market.

This course is for you if:

  • You want a fun and money-making side job by selling printable items on the internet.
  • You’re a creative person looking for a way to create passive income.
  • You want to make a few hundred (or thousand) extra dollars each month.
  • You want to work from home.

Pros and Cons of Gold City Ventures E-Printables Side Hustle Course:

Pros:

  • This course covers everything you need to know about making and selling printables.
  • The course was created by experienced Etsy sellers Julie Berninger (from the popular blog Millennial Boss) and Cody Berman (a well-known financial independence retire-early expert). There are also very helpful successful printables experts who are in their support group answering questions.
  • Helps jump-start your Etsy shop with actionable steps (there’s no fluff in this course – they teach you step-by-step).
  • You can possibly earn over $1,000 per month selling printables after taking a printables course.

There really weren’t any cons that I found in the course. But, some things to know include:

  • You must be willing to invest time and effort to learn and apply the course material as there are a lot of modules and lessons.
  • The course does have a cost. It is relatively low, though, at $247.

VIP Membership perks

One of the best parts about the E-Printables course is the bonus you get.

When you buy the course, you get a free trial of their VIP Membership for 30 days, and it starts right after you make the purchase.

The VIP Membership comes with two important things: 1) Their special Facebook group for VIPs, and 2) The VIP Membership Vault.

In the VIP Facebook group:

  • They organize live Q&A sessions, strategy talks, and virtual chats.
  • They hold monthly sessions where you can get help with graphic design to make your printables look even better.
  • You have daily access to three experienced experts in their paid group, each with a track record of thousands of printables sales on Etsy.
  • They will answer all your questions and respond to your requests for feedback on your shop.

And more.

The VIP Membership Vault comes with:

  • 100+ bonus videos including guest interviews, technical training, and advanced strategies
  • 5 brand new template packs you’ll receive every month that you can use for free in your business
  • Behind the scenes with 6- and 7-figure printables sellers

Even if you don’t have Facebook, you can still access this. Their live events are shared afterwards to the VIP Vault, and you can watch the video replay.

If you decide to continue with the VIP Membership after the initial 30 days, there will be a monthly charge of $29 until you reach 100 sales. They celebrate their “100 Sales Club” members at Gold City Ventures, and you’ll get a special prize sent to you by mail, along with a complimentary VIP Membership.

Note: You are not required to have the VIP Membership, and you can cancel it whenever you want. You’ll always have access to the E-Printables course itself, no matter what.

Refund policy

There is a 7-day refund policy as long as you don’t go past Module 1. If the course isn’t for you, they will give you a full refund, but you will want to make sure that you stay within this limit.

Gold City Ventures reviews and success stories

As you learn more about Gold City Ventures, you’ll see that lots of people have done well with their E-Printables course. This course shows you step-by-step how to make and start your own printable business. It can be a great way to make extra money on the side or even as a full-time job if you’re willing to work hard.

Many students have talked about how much they liked the course. They’ve gone from making their first printable on Etsy to earning a steady income from their online store. There are lots of success stories. People think the course materials are well-organized, easy to use, and packed with helpful advice and techniques.

Some of the things about the E-Printables course that students like include:

  • The course material covers everything, from creating printables to promoting your products.
  • There’s a kind and helpful community of fellow learners and teachers.
  • You get useful tools and resources to improve your Etsy listings and increase your sales.
  • You have a chance to make passive income with what they teach you.

A lot of people have discovered that investing in the Gold City Ventures E-Printables course is a great step in their printables business journey. Remember to think about your own goals and situation when looking at the success stories and reviews. This will help you decide if this course is the right choice for you.

You can read all of the success stories here to see what real people think of the course.

Frequently Asked Questions About Gold City Venture’s E-Printables Course

Below are answers to common questions about this course.

Do printables sell well on Etsy?

Yes, printables can sell well on Etsy. People search on Etsy all the time for printables, and I have done it as well. There is a lot of demand for creative and helpful printables on Etsy.

How much do people make selling printables on Etsy?

There is not an average that people make by selling printables on Etsy. This is because there are so many factors, such as what a person is selling, how many printable designs they have created, what they are doing to market their printables, and more.

Some sellers may make a few hundred dollars per month, while others could earn thousands. It’s important to remember that building a successful Etsy shop takes time and hard work.

How much does the Gold City Ventures course cost?

The E-Printables course costs $247.

How can I access the free workshop?

Free Training Workshop: Earn Money Selling Printables. This free workshop will teach you how to get started selling printables. You will learn different ideas for printables to sell, how to get started on Etsy, and how to actually make sales.

How long does it take to complete the course?

The Gold City Ventures E-Printables course is a self-paced program, so it might take a few days or weeks to complete the course, depending on your learning pace and available time. The average is around one month to complete the course.

What is the best printables course?

The best printables course depends on your individual needs and learning preferences. Gold City Ventures is one option that has received positive reviews and focuses on creating passive income through Etsy. This is the printables course that I highly recommend, as it is well-rounded and teaches you everything that you need to know right from the very beginning!

Is Gold City Ventures worth it?

The worth of Gold City Ventures relies on what you want to achieve. If you’re interested in learning how to make money passively on Etsy with printables, this program could be a good investment. It teaches both design and marketing strategies that have helped many people succeed.

Gold City Ventures Review: E-Printables Course Review

I hope you enjoyed this Gold City Ventures Review.

The Gold City Ventures E-Printables course will teach you how to make printables, even if you have no experience. This can help you to make extra money, even over $1,000 per month, as well as passive income.

E-printables are digital files that customers can buy, download, and print themselves, either at home or at a print shop. This market has seen a big increase in popularity in recent years as more people look for affordable and customizable options for things like home decorations, planners, and party supplies.

Gold City Ventures shows you how to make, promote, and sell your own printables on Etsy, taking advantage of this growing market and potentially earning you passive income.

Gold City Ventures might not be a perfect fit for everyone, but if you’re motivated, creative, and willing to put in effort, it could help you to make money from home. The course has detailed video tutorials and useful lessons designed to help you get into e-printables and selling on Etsy, even if you’re just beginning. Plus, hearing success stories and feedback from those who have completed the course can give you a lot of inspiration and ideas for your own entrepreneurial journey.

Please click here to learn more about the E-Printables course.

Are you interested in selling printables online?

Recommended reading:

Source: makingsenseofcents.com

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Apache is functioning normally

TPO, Correspondent, Compliance, UW, Accounting Products; Conventional News; Employment Drives Rates Higher

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TPO, Correspondent, Compliance, UW, Accounting Products; Conventional News; Employment Drives Rates Higher

By:
Rob Chrisman

Fri, Oct 6 2023, 10:43 AM

National MI turned heads yesterday by announcing its temporary increase to AUS conforming loan amounts, despite the official FHFA word not coming until the end of November. (More below on the amounts.) Our biz is filled with “numbers people,” good or bad. According to Curinos, September 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 30 percent YoY and 14 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in September was 7.01 percent, 18bps higher than August and 146bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures.) Inventory and sales aren’t helping. Economist Dr. Elliot Eisenberg summed things up. “August data showed MoM housing starts down 11.3 percent to their lowest level since 6/20, the NAHB housing index down sharply M-o-M for the second month in a row, and new home sales weakening 8.7 percent MoM, the biggest decline since 9/22. Existing housing sales slipped to their lowest level since 1/23, and August pending home sales fell 7.1 percent.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE creates accurate data that powers automation and optimizes every step of the lending lifecycle, helping lending organizations rapidly process loans, dramatically cut costs and risk, and radically improve the customer experience. Hear an interview with Ally Home’s Glenn Brunker on affordability across the nation and why potential homeowners should get off the sidelines.)

Lender and Broker Software and Services

Halcyon is the proud winner of the Innovation Challenge at Digital Mortgage 2023! Its API integration with the IRS provides tax transcripts for less than the average cost of traditional methods, with a quicker turnaround time, R&W from GSEs, and is delivered via PDF & digital format. Plus, with an option for online authorization by your borrower, ensure access to transcripts even if the government shuts down. Schedule time at MBA Annual to connect and learn more! Aren’t making it to MBA Annual this year? Contact them!

“The Loan Vision team is excited to attend the MBA Annual Convention! Stop by booth 1030 to learn how companies that run Loan Vision show a 25 percent reduction in OPEX/time to close, a 20 percent reduction in overall accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility that allow for better business decisions. Be sure book time with Carl Wooloff here to get an early introduction to our newest product that focuses on allowing our customers to be more profitable with less volume: LV-PAM – a modeling tool that provides actionable intelligence with consolidated loan data. Loan Vision’s innovation continues to provide you the ‘insights you need in the software you trust.’”

Ready to see what Borrower Surety in 90s looks like or full Credit Approval & Income Calculation in less than 15 minutes? Click the PreQual link to watch a video and see for yourself. Needs List, Credit Analysis & Borrower Surety… in 90 seconds! Income Calculations, Asset Verification & Credit Approval, in 15 minutes. 100 percent Loan Officer & Borrower Satisfaction!

“We know it’s tough and budgets tight, but you still have to comply. Would a free 2024 AML Module with cert tracking for your entire team help? Optimize Compliance (MtgEd) is dedicated to IMB Educational Compliance, org cost cutting, and audit preparedness. The Client Portal hosts the most robust Tracking and Audit Center, built directly from IMB Compliance team input. MLO CE is not enough to satisfy regulators: our solution solves for that. For the free AML promotion, contact Dave Olchek.”

TPO and Correspondent Loan Programs

“Are you attending the upcoming annual MBA Convention? The Citi Correspondent Lending Team will be there and we’re eager to meet with both current and prospective clients! Citi continues to focus on supporting underserved communities in diverse markets, with Correspondent Lending playing a significant role in creating opportunities for home ownership. As a reminder, earlier this year we launched our HomeRun program, a portfolio product with no MI requirement, up to 97 percent LTV and as little as 1 percent borrower down payment contribution. This was the just first in a series of planned Community lending initiatives. Schedule some time to talk with us at the MBA or complete our Prospective Correspondent Questionnaire. We’d welcome the opportunity to discuss Citi Correspondent Lending’s program offering and how we can help your business thrive.”

Profitable Mortgage Companies are focused on the long-term value of the customer relationship. Essex Mortgage’s partners enjoy greater customer retention, GNMA pass-thru pricing, no overlays, no LLPAs, NO EPOs, and NO EPDs. They also receive Tax Deferred asset growth and a long-term cash flow stream without having to be a GNMA issuer themselves. Please contact us to discuss how the Essex GNMA Excess MSR program can help retain and enhance your customer relationship, broaden guidelines, and expand into new markets. Please contact Kimberly Schenck.

“AFR Wholesale® (AFR) Strong! In recent weeks, AFR has achieved record high OTC volume, successfully launched FHA OTC for Site-Built, and been honored as the “Top Employer 2023” by MPA. Our clients have always counted on AFR for superior service, a wide range of program offerings, and a dedicated team of experts guiding them at every step. MPA has recognized us for our commitment to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, and highlighting our sustainable product offerings. At AFR Wholesale, we’re constantly evolving and refining our processes to provide the financing solutions our clients and borrowers truly need. Our mission? To help bring more families home. Ready to partner with a leader? Partner Today! And you can always visit us at afrwholesale.com, email us or call 1-800-375-6071.”

Despite the headwinds facing our industry, AmeriHome Correspondent continues to find ways to add value to its partners, prospects, and industry participants. Join its quarterly conversation with Freddie Mac on October 11 at 10 am PDT and hear from Freddie Mac Senior Property Valuation executives alongside AmeriHome’s Head of Credit Operations as they discuss the latest trends and challenges with appraisals, provide guidance for avoiding appraisal bias, and go over the tools you’ll need to navigate changes to the UCDP requirements. Register here and have your questions ready for the Q&A session! AmeriHome will also be releasing its ability to purchase Construction-to-Perm Conversion loans later this month. Contact your sales rep or click here for more information. Don’t miss the AmeriHome team in Philadelphia during the MBA Annual Convention Oct 15-18. Check out the Upcoming Events, find your sales rep here, or send them an email to learn more about partnering with AmeriHome!

Conventional Conforming News

The FHFA is proposing to amend its regulation that restricts its regulated entities, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks from purchasing, investing in, accepting as collateral, or otherwise dealing in mortgages on properties encumbered by certain types of private transfer fee covenants (PTFCs), and in related securities, subject to certain exceptions (PTFC Regulation).

The Uniform Appraisal Dataset (UAD) and Forms Redesign team has released additional documentation to support ongoing implementation efforts. This resource supplements the initial documentation released in March 2023, which kicked off industry development and preparation for the new appraisal dataset and report. This update includes the UAD Compliance Rules for the Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR) which helps lenders and vendors deliver the XML in compliance with the UAD Delivery Specification. These rules verify data completeness, validity (format and data type), and reasonableness. Details are available on Freddie Mac UAD Webpage.

Fannie Mae announced new resources and programs to provide responsible access to housing and long-term sustainable homeownership opportunities across the country for Latino communities unveiling HomeView en Español, a Spanish-language digital consumer education platform providing 24/7 end-to-end access to information about financial literacy and homeownership. To address upfront housing costs, another housing obstacle that disproportionately impacts Latino renters and first-time homebuyers, Fannie Mae this month expanded access to its Special Purpose Credit Program (SPCP) pilot, which now can provide down-payment assistance to eligible first-time homebuyers living in majority-Latino communities located in Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Memphis, and Philadelphia. Fannie Mae plans to further expand the program to additional cities, to include those with large Latino populations early next year. Additional resources are available to learn more about Fannie Mae’s approach to providing equitable and sustainable access to housing opportunities for the Latino community.

For AUS loans, National MI has temporarily increased the conforming loan amounts as follows: 1 unit: $750,000, Alaska & Hawaii $1,125,000. 2 units $960,300, AK & HI $1,440,450. “Other than the AUS being ineligible due to the increased conforming loan amount, the loan must comply with National MI’s TrueGuide® AUS Conforming Loans or AUS Affordable Lending Eligibility Matrices. At this time, there is no change to National MI’s TrueGuide® AUS Conforming High Balance Loans Eligibility Matrix requirements…” Talk to your National MI rep for full details.

Tim Lucas with ThisIsMortgage.com writes, “Fannie Mae has dropped the down payment requirement for 2-4 unit properties from 15-25 percent down to 5 percent. Huge change for homebuyers.”

PRMG TPO Resource Center Updates 23-10 includes various PRMG Policies, Procedures, and Information updates. Appraisal Fee Schedule, Credit Standards Policy, Fannie Mae Condo Project Manager (CPM) Access, PRMG Insurance Requirements and TPO Polly Product and Pricing.

PRMG Product Update 23-44: Product Profile Updates: Freddie Mac Conventional Products, Agency Freddie Mac, FHA, VA and USDA products, Onyx Jumbo, Ruby Express, Symmetry HELOCS, and Expanded Access and Investor Solution.

A new resource document is now available regarding the upcoming change to SLS for Conventional Loans, view AmeriHome Mortgage Announcement Number 20230913-CL.

AmeriHome Mortgage General Announcement 20230912-CL summarizes previously published changes made during September, additional changes made with this announcement, and recent Agency and regulatory news. See the attached announcement for details.

PHH updated its Product Descriptions and Product Codes effective 9/20 for both Delegated and Non-Delegated loans. Visit the PHH company library for details.

Pennymac will update Conventional LLPAs effective for all Best-Efforts Commitments taken on or after Monday, October 2nd. For details, view Pennymac Announcement 23-65: Updates to Conventional LLPAs.

Capital Markets

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trend toward 5 percent, a milestone not seen since right before the 2008 financial crisis. Concerns are mounting that the high cost of borrowing will further tighten global financial conditions, even without further action from policymakers.

The big data event of this week was always going to be today’s jobs report, where analysts anticipate the U.S. economy adding 170k jobs throughout the month of September, while the unemployment number is expected to slip by a tenth of a percent to 3.7 percent, and annualized average hourly earnings are expected to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent. As a reminder, ADP reported earlier this week that the economy added 89k jobs in September following an upwardly revised 180k in August, while Challenger reported that job cuts are back up to pre-pandemic levels after historically low figures in 2021 and 2022.

Some are calling September payrolls the most important job report of the year, and with positions squared (rates normally don’t move much before big events), continued stronger numbers from a robust jobs market could push bond yields back up and stocks down. A sustained slump in equities that revives the appeal of fixed-income assets is one scenario that could cause bonds to rally materially and rates to drop.

But there isn’t a magic level of bond yields that, when reached, will entice enough buyers to spark a sustained bond rally. The Freddie Mac 30-year rate is at nearly 7.5 percent, which is a long way from the 2.65 percent record-low from January 2021 during QE4. The average percentage of conventional 30-year borrowers with incentive to refinance (at least 50 basis points) sits at 0.03 percent and has averaged just 0.3 percent for the whole of 2023. Around 75 percent of Americans are at least 300 basis points away from having any refinance incentive.

Today, like other first Fridays of the month, brought the payrolls report, this time for September. We learned that non-farm payrolls increased 336k versus 170k expectations and 179k previously. The unemployment rate was 3.8 percent when it was seen ticking down to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent, and average hourly earnings increased (+.2 percent) versus 0.3 percent MoM expectations and 0.2 percent previously. Later today brings August consumer credit and remarks from Fed Governor Waller. In the wake of the September payrolls report, we begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse .375-.5 and the 10-year yielding 4.81 after closing yesterday at 4.71 percent.

Employment

Looking for a “solutionist?” A C-Suite Executive is seeking position as President, CEO, COO/CSO. Immensely competent with strategies, goals, sales/ops team building, P&L Management, executing a pivot; no pixie dust just fast, agile, smart work with high output. Highly connected with GSE’s, Investors, Regulators, industry vendors, PE Money, Compliance Executives. Broad industry experience in Mortgage, Building, Land Development, Insurance, Financial Services, Marketing, Software Development, Capital Markets, TPO, Private Lending, Data Analytics, Tech Stacks, M&A, turn arounds, project building/deployment, and leadership/team building. Entrepreneurial and intrapreneurial. Experienced in building tech/digital/DTC as part of strategic plan to build other channels while building traditional sales efforts. Fintech relationship a bonus. Comfortable with boards, C-Suite, and stakeholders. Ego is in check, even tempered, highly goal driven, innovative and creative problem solver, excellent communicator. Currently living on the West Coast, relocation considered; experienced with hybrid and long-distance commute. Please email Anjelica Nixt for additional information and connection.

“Evergreen Home Loans™ showcases its StepUp Program, enabling clients to buy a new property without immediately selling their existing home. The offering streamlines the buying process, allowing a smooth transition and refined mortgage options tailored to financial aspirations. Evergreen is not only a pillar of customer satisfaction but also a nurturing ground for meaningful and rewarding career paths. We create a dynamic environment where each member is a vital part of our mission to innovate and enhance the homebuying experience. If you value collaboration, innovation, and a customer-centric approach, consider joining our team. Discover the exciting opportunities waiting for you on our careers page.”

 Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com

Apache is functioning normally

This article is part of a series put together by the Total Mortgage marketing team that provides sales professionals with a crash course in marketing and self-promotion. To read other articles in this series, click here.

Video marketing is kind of having a moment right now.

In the past, using video to market to consumers was the m.o. of big companies with a lot of money and manpower to throw around. That is, not really in reach for your average loan officer or realtor. Now, however, it’s easier than ever to create simple videos and get them in front of potential customers on your own.

Why add video to your marketing strategy?

Interest in video is growing fast, and it won’t stop any time soon. Last year, Facebook’s video viewership doubled from 4 billion a day to 8 billion—in just 7 months. The experts at Syndacast, meanwhile, predict that a whopping 74% of internet traffic will be video by 2017. Basically, all signs say that the next big trend in digital marketing is video. Combine that with the potential to increase conversions by up to 30%, and it’s a trend you want to be a part of.

SEO (search engine optimization) benefits are another point to consider. Put simply, Google likes to feed people the best content they can. When their search algorithm sees a multimedia page, like an informative blog with an accompanying video, they’re much more likely to recommend your page to searchers.

Think you’re on board with video? Great. In this guide, we’re going to assume you’re working on some kind of short informative video, but that isn’t the only option available to you.

Types of marketing videos

Filming without pinning down a format can set you up for a lot of wasted time in front of the camera. These are a few of the most common kinds of videos you’ll see.

  • FAQs address specific problems or questions a viewer might have, and are usually short, semi-scripted, and informative. You can also use a similar format to highlight certain products or give a demonstration.
  • Interviews involve a conversation, either between multiple people on camera or between one person speaking to another off camera. They work best when you have access to someone with a skill set or experience level that entices your audience.
  • Testimonials put your customers on screen to advocate for you. These sometimes have an interview-like format, though they may require more scripting.
  • Culture videos put you (and your company) front and center, giving customers a taste for who you are and why you do what you do with the help of dynamic music, candid footage, and smart voice-overs, interviews, or graphics.
  • Ads require a tight focus, careful scripting, and a clear beginning, middle, and end. They often cost more than other video options and will probably require the help of an outside production company.

Marketing video basics

Whether your video team is just a neighbor with a camera or a whole marketing department, it helps to have a firm handle on what goes into making a marketing video. While it can be a complex process, ultimately, you really only need a few basic things to get started:

  • A decent camera and microphone
  • Someone knowledgeable to man the camera for you
  • Access to video editing software
  • Good lighting
  • A quiet, non-distracting place to film

Of course, there are plenty of ways to step up your game. That can mean getting better equipment, springing for a green screen, or shooting b-roll (that is, relevant secondary footage you can cut in to demonstrate ideas or give viewers a break from primary footage).

If you’re just starting out and don’t have a large budget for video, keep it simple. There are plenty of services that help you make the most of the devices you already have and integrate easily with email. Bombbomb and Talk Fusion are two good places to start.

Where to use your video

Before you even start putting together a script, you need to decide where this video is going and how you plan to showcase it. That’s because what you put around the video needs to have some impact on the content of it—and vice versa—if you want to engage people.

Here are some common areas where companies use video (a few of which we’re already using at Total Mortgage):

Email. If you have any sort of email campaign in place, be it an extensive drip campaign set in motion by first contact or simple check-ins as a customer hits milestones, adding relevant and helpful videos can make your emails go farther. A lot farther. Video can increase email click-through-rate by up to 300%.

Home page.  If your home page is lacking personality, a video can help add a human touch. Typically, these take the form of about us or product highlight videos, but don’t let that limit you. Just keep in mind one thing: your home page is prime real estate. It’s what potential clients and others interested in your business will see first. Whatever you choose to put here should be well-done and relevant.

Testimonial pages. If you have a great relationship with a satisfied borrower who has an interesting story to tell, a customer story video can be a helpful addition to your testimonial page.

Social media. If your video is informative, funny, or short and ad-like, you would do well to add sharing it on social media to any other plans you have for it. And that doesn’t mean throwing your video up on YouTube just in case. As we’ve already mentioned, Facebook is making moves to become a major player in the video content game, and with all that targeting data at their fingertips, it’s not hard to see why. Other social options, like Snapchat and Twitter can also help boost your signal.

Ad campaigns. If your business in on the larger side and you’ve already dipped your toes into the video pool with good results, it might be time to consider going bigger. You can use an ad pretty much anywhere–on your homepage, your about us, your social pages. If the quality is high enough, you can even look into advertising online or on tv.

Writing your script

To film a video right, it really helps to know in advance what the whole thing is about. That’s where a script comes in. Scripts help you plan out the dialogue of your video. They are also important for blocking out a video and deciding where your cuts and footage would make the most sense. Often, you’ll need to go through several drafts to find one you’re happy with. Here are a few more tips to help you get it right:

Start with your audience. You may have an idea for a great video, but unless someone wants to watch it, you’re out of luck. Before you settle on one idea, make sure you know who your audience will be. If you’re in the housing industry, this can mean anything from hesitant first-time buyers to satisfied past buyers willing to refer others.

Similarly, don’t try to appeal to everyone. This is fairly standard marketing advice, but it’s something you should still keep in mind when you’re coming up with a video concept. Even though the whole point of video may seem to be racking up that view count, you’re more likely to get leads from a small but targeted audience. So instead, tailor your video to fit a specific demographic.

Personality is important. If you’re going to go through the effort of putting yourself on camera, a vital part of doing the job right means giving viewers a feel for who are. Make sure you write the same way you speak with clients in person.

Getting in and out is the hardest part. Think about some of the low budget, small business videos you’ve seen over the last few years. Where do you always end up cringing the most? Yep, the beginning and the end, where awkward intros and abrupt fades-to-black reign. It’s easy to spend most of your time polishing the meaty parts of your video, but to avoid ruining an otherwise strong video, don’t forget about the transitions.

Keep your videos short. No matter how much footage you take, remember that viewers have short attention spans. Depending on the video, you should aim for between 30 seconds to 2 minutes—but shorter is always better.

Don’t worry too much about what you put on paper. Scripts change all the time. Sometimes what you have written down just doesn’t end up fitting. In some types of videos, like a Q&A session or a short interview, you’re probably going to want to skip the script all together and stick to some pre-chosen questions. This is especially true if you think you’re going to have difficulty speaking naturally on camera.

Tips for filming day

If you’re new to this whole video thing, you may not realize how much work goes into the filming alone. Here are a few tips you’ll want to keep in mind before you get in front of the camera.

  1. Wear a solid-colored, non-green shirt. Patterns can be distracting on camera, and green may interfere with editing later on if you’re using a green screen.
  2. Practice reading your script aloud before you start filming. As we’ve already mentioned, you want to sound as natural as possible in front of the camera. A read-through will help you pick out the places that trip you up and get used to speaking conversationally—that is, not too fast or too stilted.
  3. Decide where you’re looking. Generally you’ll want to look directly at the lens, but depending on the video, you may need to look at an interviewer or something on screen.
  4. Relax. The tenser you are, the more it’s going to show up in your voice and face. Try to pretend the camera is a person and talk to it, not at it.
  5. Take a look at your takes as you finish each one. You’ll be able to see what you need to tweak in your next take.
  6. If you’re working with a videographer, talk to them the day before. It’s likely they have some other tips and requirements that are more specific to the material you’re filming.

Next steps: editing your marketing video

Once you have all your footage, it’s time to edit.

Ideally, you’d have the help of whoever manned the camera, be they hobbyist neighbor or full-time videographer, but that’s not always an option. If you’re planning on editing your video yourself, this Hubspot post offers a breakdown on several free options for video editing software. This blog post from Wordstream also has some helpful knitty-gritty tips when it comes to things like lighting, editing, and music on the cheap.

Want more?

You can learn more about what the Total Mortgage marketing team does for our loan officers by checking out other articles in this series. If you’re in the housing industry, stop by our career portal to learn more about us as a company.

Source: totalmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

The fight to keep the FHA affordable to would-be home buyers is heating up.

Despite some intense efforts to get the FHA to bring down its annual mortgage insurance premiums to pre-crisis levels, it probably won’t happen this year. Or even next year…

And that’s straight from the horse’s mouth. Yesterday, FHA Commissioner Carol Galante did a little Q&A session with the Washington Post, and she pretty much shut down the idea of lowering premiums in the near future.

Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors, along with other industry trade groups, sent letters to HUD urging it to lower the annual MIP on FHA loans to improve affordability for underserved borrowers, namely first-time buyers.

But those pleas appear to have fallen on deaf ears, as Galante told the WaPo it was “not the time to do a wholesale rollback of the premiums.”

Definitely Won’t Raise FHA Premiums

However, she did add that the agency definitely wouldn’t raise premiums any further. Sigh of relief.

For the record, they’ve been raised five times since 2010, nearly tripling from 0.55% to 1.35% today.

Clearly that has caused a lot of uproar, especially with pro-housing groups like NAR and the MBA, but apparently HUD is putting its foot down. But not premiums…

The reason? The FHA’s financial condition is still tenuous at best. Additionally, they last raised the annual MIP about a year ago, so to lower it after just 12 months would seem a bit silly and shortsighted, not to mention weak.

Galante also claimed the FHA’s reduced market share today versus several years ago may be more about the overall drop in loan origination volume (and higher mortgage rates), and not so much the higher premiums.

Per the article, FHA loans were used for about half of home purchases in 2008 and only around 20% today.

Asked what type of market share she’d like the FHA to have, she didn’t throw out a number but said somewhere between irrelevant and dominant, to paraphrase aggressively.

New Legislation Would Lower Upfront Premium for First-Time Buyers

While NAR and the MBA work on the annual premiums, Congresswoman Joyce Beatty (OH-03) is working on getting the FHA’s upfront mortgage insurance premium reduced.

On April 10th, she and a number of other legislators introduced the so-called “Housing Financial Literacy Act of 2014” (H.R. 4462).

At the moment, the upfront MIP is a pricey 1.75% of the loan amount, up from 1% back in early 2012.

The bill would reduce it to 1.50% for first-time home buyers who complete a HUD-certified housing counseling course that improves their financial acumen.

She points to studies that show pre-purchase housing counseling reduces the risk of mortgage default by one-third. So apparently it would more than pay for itself.  And because it targets first-time home buyers, HUD shouldn’t take issue with it.

Interestingly, HUD proposed a similar program last summer referred to as HAWK, or Homeowners Armed With Knowledge.

The pilot program would reduce insurance premiums for homeowners who take part in housing counseling prior to receiving an FHA loan, a move that could bolster the agency’s MMI Fund and improve the well-being of FHA borrowers.

When HAWK might actually roll out remains unclear.  In the mean time, renters might need to save more money or ask for a gift if they want to realize the dream of homeownership.

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com