HMDA

As I type this piece on Friday morning, I am at the O’Hare aerodrome for a flight from Chicago to San Francisco. O’Hare is packed and humming… What economic slowdown? Does my opinion on the economy matter any more than yours, or… that of the guy running JPMorgan Chase? Last June CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an economic “hurricane” down the road. “Hurricane” is pretty sensationalist, especially when it hasn’t happened. This week he told Reuters that the U.S. economy was in “good shape.” It’s a safe bet that inflation will compel the Federal Open Market Committee to hike overnight interest rates above 5% (from the 4.50%-4.75% level it’s at now). The Fed believes short-term rates will continue rising. If you had any questions, two Fed officials on Wednesday essentially echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish opinion. Yet bond investors seem to be shrugging some of this off! If you knew that something was going to go down in price, you wouldn’t want to own it outright, right? Investors are generally piling into notes and bonds with longer maturities even in the face of increased anticipation that the Federal Reserve will substantially hike its benchmark interest rate in the coming months. Go figure! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by SimpleNexus, an nCino company and homeownership platform unites the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into one seamless, end-to-end solution that spans engagement, origination, closing, and business intelligence. For today, an interview with SimpleNexus CEO, Ben Miller, on why borrower experience and technological advancements to facilitate it are so important.)