Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
There haven’t been many appealing options for borrowers in the last two years.
With inflation problematic, interest rates were elevated to help rein it in. And while that caused inflation to drop from a decades-high in June 2022, interest rates have been stuck at their highest level in 23 years. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve elected to maintain that level, keeping the benchmark interest rate range unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. This has resulted in higher borrowing costs for everything from mortgages and auto loans to personal loans and credit cards.
One alternative that has remained cost-effective, however, has been home equity. By tapping into their equity via a home equity loan or home equity line of credit (HELOC), homeowners have gained access to large sums of money, often at much lower interest rates compared to the alternatives. But an even lower interest rate is always preferable, leading some to wonder if home equity loan rates will drop further this month. Below, we’ll break down what to expect now.
See what home equity loan rate you could secure online today.
While the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this week, the implication that higher rates may be staying high for longer was clear. Even absent a formal increase in rates, rates on borrowing products like home equity loans and HELOCs may rise slightly if lenders believe that a rate hike is imminent.
So not only is it unlikely for home equity loan rates to fall in May — they may actually rise. That possibility could become more pronounced if the next inflation report, scheduled to be released on May 15, shows inflation rising yet again. If that happens, an interest rate hike becomes more likely — and rates on home equity products could rise.
Against this backdrop, then, homeowners may want to be proactive. Home equity loan rates are fixed (unlike HELOCs, which are variable). So by pursuing a home equity loan today, owners can lock in today’s low rate before it potentially rises further. And, if rates somehow drop in the months to come, owners could refinance their loan then. What they shouldn’t do, however, is rate for a better rate climate. Instead, get started now and lock in the lowest rate you can find.
Explore your home equity loan options here to learn more.
A lower interest rate isn’t the only selling point for home equity loans now. Here are two other reasons why you may want to pursue this option today:
Home equity loan rates are unlikely to fall in May and they could even rise as the month goes on. But because of that likelihood, and because of the low rate borrowers can secure now, it may be beneficial to act promptly. Combined with beneficial features like access to large sums of money and potential tax deductions for qualifying uses, a home equity loan can be your go-to credit option now. As with all financial products, however, be sure to weigh the pros and cons of this unique loan, as you could risk losing your home in the process if you can’t pay back what you borrow.
Source: cbsnews.com
Higher interest rates are increasing pressure on homebuyers who are already facing a challenging housing market. Many would-be buyers are understandably putting purchasing plans on hold, but there are no signs mortgage rates will drop significantly in the near future, and there are some sensible steps to take if you want to become a homeowner soon.
Mortgage rates surged past 7% for the first time this year on April 18 and continued to climb last week. According to Freddie Mac’s benchmark survey, the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan is averaging 7.17% — more than half a percentage point higher than at the start of the year. And the upward trend may not be over.
Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac’s deputy chief economist, says it’s hard to predict just how much higher rates could rise, given the volatility in the market. A lot depends on data regarding inflation, which is proving to be stickier than everyone hoped for, and market expectations as to when the Federal Reserve will start cutting short-term interest rates.
“Given the current [economic] trajectory we’re on, it’s looking like there’s still some upward momentum,” Kiefer says. “In the very near term, we’ll probably see these rates be at the current level or a little bit higher.”
Most early-year forecasts predicted that mortgage rates would start moving in a slow downward trend throughout the year. While those outlooks seemed to be on the money during the first two months of the year, the opposite has been true in recent months.
According to Bob Smith, head of real estate for Advisor Credit Exchange, for at least the remainder of the year, “Rates are going to be bounded in a range . . . probably in the 6%s, low 7%s.”
It’s unclear when inflation will finally be under control, meaning mortgage rates will probably remain volatile for a while before settling down.
In the long term, Kiefer and Smith see inflationary pressures easing later this year. That should help nudge mortgage rates lower — just “not as much as we had thought,” Kiefer says.
High mortgage rates are hitting buyers right in the middle of the spring buying season. According to Freddie Mac, about 36% of all home sales take place between March and June, making these months the busiest time in the housing market.
Elevated mortgage rates, combined with high home prices and a lack of enough inventory to meet buyer demand, have led to record-high monthly payments. Homeowners insurance costs are at all-time highs as well, up 20% in the past year. These factors are pushing many would-be buyers to put their plans on hold. According to a report by BMO Financial Group, 71% of would-be homebuyers are waiting for rates to drop before buying a house.
Potential home sellers are also feeling the crunch, especially those who bought when rates were much lower. The cost of obtaining a new mortgage at a higher rate is keeping owners locked into their homes.
Despite the challenges, buyers shouldn’t panic. “Rates are, for a large part, temporary. At some point, [they] will go down,” says Scott Bridges, chief CDL production officer at lender Pennymac.
Instead of worrying about things that are out of your control, it’s best to focus on the fundamentals of homebuying to see if purchasing a home right now is the right move (regardless of the rate). Here’s what you can do:
Check your credit score and try to improve it while you’re shopping for a home. Buyers with better credit generally have access to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, taking on extra debt during this time will reduce your score as well as your debt-to-income ratio, which will cause lenders to offer a higher interest rate on a mortgage. “When rates are higher, every bit of debt counts,” says Bridges.
Higher mortgage rates could move some buyers out of the market, which means more opportunities and less competition for those who can afford to buy. Don’t be afraid to lowball a little bit. With fewer buyers, you may be able to negotiate a lower price or concessions with a motivated seller.
Ideally, you’ll find a move-in ready home that fits your budget. The reality is that homes requiring little to no work attract a lot of attention and you may find yourself in a bidding war. Don’t be afraid to look for homes that may need some TLC. The asking price is likely more negotiable, and you may find you can use the money you save to fix up the home to your taste.
Set a budget you’re comfortable with. Use a housing affordability calculator to get an estimate of how much you can pay towards a home purchase. You can also get loan estimates from several different lenders to find the best rates and loan terms. And remember, the maximum amount a lender is willing to lend isn’t necessarily what you should spend on a home. Set a lower budget if it makes better financial sense or if you want to have some wiggle room if you have to compete against other buyers.
A house is likely the most amount of money you’ll ever spend. Bridges says that homebuyers typically make mistakes when they rush the process. Take the time to inspect the property and ask to see a home appraisal. Make sure it’s the right fit for your needs at the right price for you.
“Try to do things patiently,” says Bridges. “Don’t overpay, and don’t panic.”
8 Best Mortgage Lenders of May 2024
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Source: money.com
While mortgage rates remain higher than they were during the housing market’s booming pandemic years, Moody’s Ratings has predicted them to finally start declining over the next few years in a new report.
Exactly a week ago, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, better known as Freddie Mac, reported that the average rate for a 30-year-fixed mortgage—the most popular among U.S. borrowers—had reached 7.1 percent, a record high for this year so far.
Read more: How to Find the Right Mortgage for You
Moody’s Ratings’ experts believe mortgage rates will come down—just not as quickly as homebuyers might wish for. The financial research company is currently estimating that mortgage rates will remain higher “than the extremely low levels during the decade of aggressive central bank stimulus that preceded the past two years” in the coming months, but will likely reach around 6 percent or somewhat less by the end of 2025.
This is good news for aspiring homebuyers who have been squeezed out of the market by skyrocketing home prices and high mortgage rates, which climbed as a direct consequence of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign to combat the rise of inflation last year.
While most analysts expect the central bank to lower interest rates this year, the Federal Reserve has so far failed to do so, as the latest data on the cost of living show that inflation remains higher than expected at 3.48 percent in March. The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates, but any rise in interest rates impacts new mortgage lending.
Read more: Compare Low Rates With the Best Mortgage Lenders
Higher mortgage rates led to a drop in demand in late summer 2022 due to the unaffordability of buying a home for many Americans; but the price correction that followed this slide in demand was rather modest. In spring 2023, prices started climbing back up across the country, as the supply of homes remained low.
While the historic shortage of homes in the U.S. can primarily be traced back to the fact that the country has under-built following the bursting of the housing bubble and the financial crisis of 2007-2008, high mortgage rates have also caused many homeowners to hold on to their homes instead of putting them on the market.
“Many U.S. homeowners have low fixed-rate mortgages that they are reticent to give up, which is constraining existing property listings and sales,” Moody’s wrote in the report.
Faced with a growing demand for new constructions and mortgage interest rate buydowns, the company’s experts expect home prices to avoid significant decline in the coming months, sliding by a moderate 5 percent this year after falling 6.6 percent in 2023.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
Birmingham is one of the most pivotal cities in American history. From the echoes of the civil rights movement to the fascinating history of Rickwood Field, there’s a place for everyone to feel at home in Birmingham.
Birmingham is a great place for history buffs, outdoorsy types, science enthusiasts, and sports fans. It’s a city that is quickly on the rise and gaining more things to brag about at a breakneck pace.
Let’s take some time to explore ten of the top things Birmingham is known for, and start to understand why so many people are hoping to find an apartment in Birmingham.
The Birmingham Civil Rights Institute is a cornerstone of the city, providing an in-depth look at the civil rights movement in the United States. Interactive exhibits and archives tell the stories of the struggle and triumph that occurred in Birmingham during the 1950s and 1960s. The institute commemorates the past while fostering an ongoing dialogue about civil rights and justice in the contemporary world.
Home to the largest cast iron statue in the world, Vulcan Park is a symbol of Birmingham’s roots in the iron and steel industry. The park has a museum that provides insights into the city’s industrial past, while the statue itself represents the Roman god of fire and forge. It’s a popular spot for locals and tourists looking to learn more about Birmingham’s development and soak in a stunning view at the same time.
The McWane Science Center takes a hands-on approach to learning, with interactive exhibits and activities that cover everything from dinosaurs to space exploration. It’s a favorite among families, providing fun and educational experiences that encourage children and adults alike to engage with science in a playful environment. The center also has an IMAX theater that brings exciting scientific discoveries to life on a massive screen.
Red Mountain Park is a sprawling 1,500-acre park that supports a ton of outdoor activities including hiking, biking, zip-lining, and more. This park is the ideal spot for fun in the Birmingham sun. Its trails and scenic overlooks provide a peaceful escape into nature, reflecting Birmingham’s commitment to preserving community spaces within its historical industrial landscape.
Sloss Furnaces is a national historic landmark where visitors can explore the preserved blast furnaces that made Birmingham a leading iron producer in the late 19th century. Today, it operates as a museum and venue for concerts and festivals. This site educates its visitors on the harsh working conditions of the Industrial Age and the evolution of manufacturing technologies.
For motorsports enthusiasts and motorcycle history buffs, the Barber Vintage Motorsports Museum is a rare attraction. Housing one of the largest collections of motorcycles in the world, the museum displays over 1,400 motorcycles that span over 100 years of production. The museum also includes a beautifully designed racetrack that hosts a few high-profile races throughout the year.
The Birmingham Botanical Gardens is an oasis that features over 67 acres of beautifully landscaped gardens. With over 12,000 different plants, an extensive library, and several picturesque walking paths, it’s a favorite spot for plant lovers throughout the state.
One of the finest regional museums in the United States, the Birmingham Museum of Art holds an impressive collection that spans continents and centuries. With over 24,000 paintings, sculptures, prints, drawings, and decorative arts, the museum offers a comprehensive look at diverse cultures and histories. Its extensive collection of Asian art is particularly noted for its quality and breadth.
As the oldest professional ballpark in the United States, Rickwood Field holds a special place in the hearts of baseball fans. It’s a living museum of America’s pastime and hosts annual games including the celebrated “Rickwood Classic,” which allows players and fans to experience baseball in its historical form. The field has seen legends like Babe Ruth and Willie Mays play between its bases, adding to its significance and allure.
Constructed in 1927, the Alabama Theatre is a restored movie palace that’s now a venue for films, concerts, and performances. This historic theater is known for its elaborate architecture and the “Mighty Wurlitzer” organ—one of the few remaining in the United States.
Using a credit card to make purchases is straightforward, but understanding the ins and outs of how exactly they work can be more complicated.
On the back end, credit card issuers can take certain liberties that impact your cards’ features. If you dig into the fine print, you’ll find that card issuers generally mention they can make certain account decisions at their discretion. There are also unwritten liberties issuers can take, potentially in your favor. For instance, an issuer may be cooperative when you request lower interest rates, a higher credit limit or a switch to a different card entirely.
The more you understand your credit cards, the better you can navigate them.
Here are a few facts about credit cards that are good to know.
You may become accustomed to certain perks, rewards, fees or even interest rates over time, but those features can change — some more quickly than others. You’ll often find language supporting this in a card’s terms and conditions.
For significant changes — like increases to interest rates, fees and the minimum amount due — the card issuer generally must give notice 45 days in advance, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s website. But benefits or rewards aren’t considered “significant,” so changes to those can come at any time. (Many issuers will still send an email or written notification as a courtesy to cardholders.)
Variable interest rates change at a quicker pace than other features, as has been the case since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to battle inflation.
“Folks didn’t realize that the rise in the federal interest rate applies to their credit card also,” says Martin Lynch, director of education at Cambridge Credit Counseling, a nonprofit credit counseling agency. “Variable rate cards incorporate those hikes usually within a month or two, so you did see some people experiencing some sticker shock when the minimum payments went up.”
Even if you’re managing a credit card responsibly, an issuer can still legally close your account if it wants to, according to the CFPB website.
The issuer must provide an “adverse action notice” when it makes these kinds of unfavorable decisions, the website notes. But they can still catch you off guard.
For longtime customers with solid track records, an issuer might be willing to negotiate a lower interest rate. Alternately, a hardship plan (if available) can temporarily lower interest rates if the hardship is because of qualifying circumstances beyond your control.
If you’re having trouble juggling debt, credit card issuers may also be willing to work with you through a nonprofit credit counseling agency’s debt management plan, which can consolidate those debts into one fixed monthly payment if you qualify.
“Our average interest rate right now is about 8%, among all creditors,” Lynch says. “Some are higher, some are lower.”
For comparison, the average rate for credit cards that assessed interest in the last quarter of 2023 was 22.75%, according to Fed data.
Many credit cards offer an upfront pile of cash back, points or miles as an incentive for new cardholders who can meet a specific spending requirement. But if you’ve recently applied for a credit card with the same issuer — even if it’s been more than a year — you might not qualify for the advertised bonus.
As you’re applying for a credit card, it’s important to read the terms carefully to understand whether you’re eligible for such a welcome offer.
If you have good or excellent credit (credit scores of 690 or higher), you might qualify for a credit card with a 0% introductory APR on purchases, balance transfers or both. But that promotional window may not be guaranteed.
If you pay late, for instance, the issuer could cancel the 0% APR offer and start charging the card’s ongoing variable interest rate instead. Depending on the card, a much higher penalty APR can also apply after missing a payment.
To avoid missing payments, set a reminder or establish an automatic payment schedule.
If a credit card is no longer as valuable to you as it once was, contact the issuer to see whether it’s possible to upgrade or downgrade your credit card to a different option. This is also known as a “product change,” and it may allow you to retain your account number and account history while switching to a card that better suits your needs now.
You might consider downgrading to a different option to avoid an annual fee, for example. An upgrade might get you higher rewards or better perks.
It’s not really an issue for cash-back credit cards, but if you have a co-branded store card or travel card, be aware that the points or miles that you’re earning may be less valuable for some redemptions than for others.
For example, your miles may be worth a penny or more each when redeemed for travel, but a good bit less than that when you redeem for options like cash back, statement credit or gift cards.
Knowing the true value of your rewards can help you maximize them. You can often get an idea of that value either by logging into your card account and exploring redemption options or by revisiting the card’s terms and conditions.
Source: nerdwallet.com
The bottom line is the housing market remains in flux and is once again adjusting to the likelihood of interest rates remaining higher for longer after being teased by the potential of a falling rate environment.
This flux has created far more volatility in the housing market, particularly in recent weeks, with the MOVE Index — a measure of rate volatility in the U.S. Treasury market — jumping to as high as 121 in mid-April after ending March near 85.
Ben Hunsaker, a Beach Point Capital Management portfolio manager who is focused on securitized credit, said that during the past year, nonqualified mortgage (non-QM) AAA bond spreads have actually contracted from 155 to 135, while agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) spreads have widened from about 118 to 134 over the same period.
“With agency spreads moving out 10 to 15 basis points, you would expect that non-QM spreads also have to widen eventually, otherwise the market’s a little bit out of sync,” Hunsaker said. “On a forward-looking basis, you would expect you don’t have the same tailwinds as you did before.”
Volatility in the Treasury market, which trades at a shifting spread below that of mortgage rates, also translates into uncertainty among housing market investors. Market observers say this normally leads to investor hesitancy and a tendency to keep more money parked on the sidelines.
“When interest rate volatility goes up, you generally have lower fund flows, which you’ve seen over the last few weeks,” Hunsaker said.
On top of that, mortgage origination volumes are projected to be flat this year in the agency (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae) sector, and only slightly better on the non-agency (non-QM) side compared to 2023, according to market experts.
Non-QM mortgages include loans that cannot be purchased by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The pool of non-QM borrowers includes real estate investors, fix-and-flippers, foreign nationals, business owners, gig economy workers and the self-employed.
What does this market uncertainty — marked by low origination volumes and a move toward higher rates for longer — mean for the secondary mortgage market, which creates liquidity for the primary mortgage market via securitization and has a heavy finger on the scale in determining interest rates for homebuyers?
If bond yields rise in the secondary market due to a supply-demand imbalance or because of increased perceived risk, then that also tends to put upward pressure on mortgage rates in the primary market.
HousingWire interviewed a range of experts across the secondary market to get a pulse on the dynamics at play at the end of April across the following sectors: whole loan trading, agency and non-agency MBS, and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).
Following are excerpts from their responses that reflect on the good, the bad and the ugly of the current market.
“When we came into the year, we thought we were in for as many as five or six rate cuts. That was a problem for sellers of loans. For mortgages, specifically 30-year fixed rate, it was hard to find a buyer willing to make a strong premium payment [on a whole loan purchase] when you think you are going to get four or five or six rate cuts, because that meant rates were going to fall and [mortgage] prepayments [due to refinancing] were going to increase.
“However, what we’re discovering is that those folks that had the courage to put that trade on back in the third and fourth quarter of last year are in the first quarter of this year being rewarded. Because if we are now looking at only one rate cut [in 2024], maybe even one hike — although I think that’s still a pretty low probability — but let’s just say we’re flat — then prepayment speeds should remain low.
“Higher-coupon loans now may [offer] a higher rate of return for longer than someone might have anticipated in a rate assessment that was at the beginning of 2024. … So, basically, if I’m trading [as a seller] a 7% loan right now, I may get a premium — like a solid 102 [over par] or whatever.
“The buyer is going to be happy because the prepayment speeds are likely to remain low given the current Fed stance [of higher for longer], and you can amortize that premium over a longer period of time to get a better yield. So, both seller and buyer are happier with the newer loan.“
— John Toohig, head of whole loan trading at Raymond James and president of Raymond James Mortgage Co.
“There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines. There’s a lot of money out there. This translates into whole loans too.
“In RPL and NPL, which are reperforming loans and nonperforming loans, there’s a ton of demand. We just put a bid out recently and … had over 30 bids. That tells you that folks are trying to grab those loans, either for the real estate — if it’s a nonperforming loan … such as for rentals, accumulating assets for their portfolio — or if it’s reperforming, to get cash flows at a discount.
“Those loans [RPL and NPL] are really rich on the demand side, but the only sellers are those who are forced to sell because it’s at a discount, with the stuff we’ve seen trading in the 80s [below par].
— JB Long, president of Incenter Capital Advisors
“Rate volatility has persisted in the market. It’s essentially like playing a game of Keno [with bets being placed on] what number when, and that money can be lost doing so is not surprising. From my perspective, transaction volume and mortgage origination volume has been on its back — and stayed on its back — for the last year and a half.
“ … There is a book called “Who Moved My Cheese.” And it is a very simple book that highlights a very important premise. A mouse goes looking around, looking around, looking around, and spends all its time looking for cheese. Then [after it finds the cheese], it just keeps going back to the same place, but the cheese is gone.
“The mouse forgot the whole reason he ever found the cheese in the first place, and that’s because the mouse remained nimble and adaptive, as opposed to just hitting the same button as many times as he possibly could. The point is we have to continue to evolve with an evolving market.
“ … [For example], one of the big changes in the [agency] CRT [credit risk transfer] market has been a decision by the GSEs to not issue the most subordinate [securities] tranches. They are the riskiest tranches … and they’re the ones that offer the highest return. The supply of that profile has diminished considerably because they’re not issuing it anymore.
“… So, what happens is those investors go to non-QM subs. … There’s a lot of demand for that sub now [securities backed by non-QM mortgages, particularly those linked to home equity loan products].“
— Peter Van Gelderen, specialist portfolio manager in the fixed-income group and co-head of Global Securitized at TCW
“Inflation is running hotter than expected, but I wouldn’t say it’s out of control. We’ve just been kind of consistently in a range that’s higher than what the Fed would like. .. Rates do feel rich. They do feel high, but I think the market has adjusted pretty well to where the rates are and certainly it’s within the range of expectations.
“The credit spreads [for non-agency MBS] have come in throughout the year, and so the [non-agency] securitization market is open, and it’s functioning from the originator through the aggregator to the end buyer. Everyone can still make it work.
“It’s by no means the best market anyone’s ever seen, but [non-agency mortgage] originations are growing. … It’s a market that’s diverse in product types and participants.“
— Dane Smith, senior managing director and president of Verus Mortgage Capital
[Editor’s Note: Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) expects 2024 issuance for non-agency MBS to be approximately $67 billion, up 22% year over year. Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and closed-end second (CES) originations are expected to account for $11 billion of the increase. KBRA’s measure of non-agency loans encompasses the prime jumbo, nonprime/non-QM, and home equity lending spaces, as well as credit-risk transfer deals.]
“The lock-in effect [of homeowners staying in place due to low mortgage rates] has taken so many homes off the market that you’re seeing reduced sales volume, which creates fewer issuances of mortgages so that the market doesn’t have to metabolize that many loans.
“… But you still have this issue that the Fed displaced real money investors [in the agency MBS acquisition market] for a whole business cycle, a decade, [before pulling back from the market starting in 2022] and that market just doesn’t reappear overnight.
“… We’ve never had this many people that have a loan that’s so far below prevailing rates. So, we’re in a part of the cycle that people can’t look to a model and say, ’This is what’s going to happen,’ because we’ve never been here before.
“… Lower interest rates will create more [agency MBS] issuance, but more issuance creates a wider basis [spread from Treasurys] because there’s now a lack of investor demand versus the added MBS supply, and this creates higher primary mortgage rates to account for the lower investor bids for the excess MBS supply.
“… It’s a structural issue that I would love to see more focus on … because if you don’t have a couple of trillion dollars of excess balance sheet out there somewhere that’s priced appropriately, then the homeowner is going to end up paying more for their mortgage than they otherwise would.“
— Sean Dobson, chairman and CEO of real estate investment firm Amherst
“I think agency spreads have a pretty high correlation to interest rate volatility, so when you go from relatively low interest rate volatility, like where we came into April, to where we are today, it’s a pretty big shock to the agency mortgage market.
“And accordingly, you’ve seen agency spreads widen pretty materially. [April has] been a really bad month for agency mortgage-backed securities. … The supply-demand for agency MBS is probably in balance, however, and it’s in balance because there’s very light creation of new agency MBS [about $232 billion of agency MBS issuance in Q1 2024, compared with $223 billion in Q1 2023, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)].
“… The money managers who really drove spreads tightening [in the agency market] from middle of last year to the end of last year, they’ve become pretty overweight in agency MBS. … But there’s still a lot of annuity money being deployed from annuity sales, and so that should be a continued tailwind [for the overall secondary mortgage market].
“Insurance is really the 900-pound gorilla in the room driving the bus, so they matter a lot, and there’s not a lot of credit creation that can satiate their needs.“
— Ben Hunsaker, portfolio manager focused on securitized credit for Beach Point Capital Management
“You were able to get [MSR] trades off [much of] last year with interest rates somewhat certain. But then when the uncertainty hit [late in the year, with rates declining] that slowed the fourth-quarter [deal volume], and that’s what was reflected [in the number of deals closing] when we came into this first quarter.
“Then all this data starts coming out and it became obvious that [rate cuts were] not going to happen, and that gave a lot more confidence to the buy side. [MSRs tend to price better in a high or rising rate environment because prepayment speeds are reduced. They tend to lose value in a falling rate environment as mortgage prepayments increase, reducing the payout of MSRs.]
“So, look, pricing began to pick up [as it became clear rate cuts were not likely in the near term], but we also saw an interesting phenomenon. And that is the capital that was tied to highly efficient, highly capable [refinance- and home equity loan-focused] recapture platforms decided it was not as concerned about interest rates [going] either way.
“If rates do not move, [they are] comfortable with the pricing that they’re paying today based on just the steady prepayment speeds and the cash flows, and they’re clipping coupons each month based off of those payments coming in. However, when rates do move, they are going to be in position to recapture [those customers via refinancing].
“… So, we now have a strong appetite for the MSR asset, whether it’s out of the money — which to us is below prevailing market rates — or at the money, and we also have a strong demand for both conventional as well as government [MSR assets].
“I will paraphrase a seasoned veteran in the industry that I was talking to recently, who said candidly, ’I have never seen the market like it is today — how extremely active and busy it is.’
“I’m not calling a peak yet. There’s a lot of interest from some pretty significant [investor] sources, who have a lot of capital [and] who are still looking to buy … And it’s driven again by [a desire to] put units on their platform, maintaining efficiencies, while also then having the ability to recapture when — and who knows when — that market opportunity presents itself.“
— Tom Piercy, chief growth officer at Incenter Capital Advisors
[Editor’s Note: Year to date, Incenter has announced auctions for some $15 billion in new bulk MSR deals, which does not include privately negotiated deals.]
“I don’t know if this is the peak or if … rates are going to continue to go up from here, and MSR values are going follow suit or not. But I think people are of the mindset that it’s now higher for longer [on rates].
“It’s hard because of low [housing] inventory levels and higher interest rates to bring in new originations, but that’s the reason why so many of these servicers keep going back to the same well, with a focus on offering cash-out refinance [or closed-end second liens, or home equity lines of credit] to existing customers, given that can be a source of some volume.
“It’s been a strong [MSR] market [so far this year], with some really attractive execution levels that are, dare I say, being influenced by one’s ability to recapture these borrowers. … It’s hard to convince a borrower with a 3% note rate to cash-out refinance into a 7% note rate, but they can still tap their equity by taking out a HELOC or closed-end second without impacting the rate on their first lien.
“I’ve got probably three or four deals I’m currently working on, so [MSR] volume and pricing are strong. We’ve seen some high-5 multiple trades [historically a great deal in this measure of pricing on MSR pools].
“I think [MSR trading volume] this year is going to be on par, if not slightly better, than last year [which would mark the fourth year in a row that the MSR market has recorded trading volume near the $1 trillion level].“
— Mike Carnes, managing director of MSR valuations at Mortgage Industry Advisory Corp. (MIAC)
[Editor’s Note: Year to date, MIAC has announced auctions for some $6.4 billion in new bulk MSR deals, which does not include privately negotiated deals.)
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage rates have climbed five weeks in a row and are now at their highest levels since the week before Thanksgiving.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.32% in the week ending May 2, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. It was an increase of nine basis points over the previous week. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) It marked the highest level since mid-November.
Source: caledonianrecord.com
Despite being a city with a whole lot to offer, Toledo often flies under the radar. From its world-class art museum to its undeniably friendly people, there’s a place for everyone to feel at home in Toledo.
Home to a well-respected university, a handful of pristine parks, and a great local restaurant scene, Toledo is on the rise. From afternoons at Fifth Third Field to lunch at Tony Packo’s we’re here to find out what Toledo is really known for through ten of its top attractions. Enjoy!
The Toledo Museum of Art is a beacon for the arts in the city. Known for its extensive collection spanning all corners of the globe, the museum gives visitors a profound look at classical and contemporary works. Noteworthy is the Glass Pavilion, which houses a stunning collection of glass art, reflecting Toledo’s historic connection to the glass industry.
Toledo takes immense pride in the Toledo Mud Hens, the beloved Minor League Baseball team affiliated with the Detroit Tigers. The team’s games are held at Fifth Third Field, a state-of-the-art ballpark in downtown Toledo, which provides a perfect family-friendly atmosphere. The Mud Hens are a cornerstone of Toledo’s sports scene.
The University of Toledo is a stellar Ohio college, with a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs. Known for its research and innovation, particularly in areas like engineering, medicine, and business, the university is a hotspot of academic activity and student life.
Oak Openings Preserve Metropark is a natural treasure of Toledo, covering over 5,000 acres. It is renowned for its unique sand dunes and oak savanna ecosystems. The park offers tons of trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding, making it a favorite among outdoorsy types.
Wildwood Preserve Metropark is another stellar Toledo park. Known for its beautiful manor house and well-maintained trails, the park is a scenic escape with plenty of shade thanks to the lush foliage soaring overhead.
Tony Packo’s Cafe has been a Toledo staple since 1932, famously recognized for its Hungarian hot dogs and pickles. This iconic eatery gained national fame when mentioned in the television show MASH*. Visitors to Tony Packo’s can enjoy a taste of local history alongside their meals, which include a variety of Eastern European dishes, making it a must-visit for all foodies.
Home to the Toledo Mud Hens, Fifth Third Field is not just a ballpark but a centerpiece of downtown Toledo’s revitalization. This modern facility is designed with fan experience in mind, offering great views of the game and the skyline.
Imagination Station adds a scientific twist to Toledo. This interactive science museum engages all with hands-on exhibits and activities that make learning more fun than it is in the classroom. From physics to biology, the museum covers a broad spectrum of scientific fields, fostering curiosity in young Ohio minds.
The Maumee River is integral to Toledo’s identity. Fishing, boating, and riverside dining are popular here, drawing locals and tourists to enjoy the natural and scenic beauty of the river. The annual Walleye Run is a particularly exciting time to visit, attracting anglers from across the nation.
The Valentine Theatre is a historic venue in Toledo that hosts an array of performing arts. From ballets and musicals to dramatic plays, the theater is a destination that brings high-quality performances to the community.
Mortgage rates rose for the fifth consecutive week, but so far it has had limited influence on this year’s spring home purchase season, Freddie Mac commented.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by 5 basis points this week to 7.22%, tying a level last seen at the end of November, the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey found.
For April 25, the 30-year FRM was at 7.17%, while for the same week in 2023, it averaged 6.39%.
For the 15-year FRM, the average rose three basis points, to 6.47%, from 6.44% and a year ago at this time, the 15-year it averaged 5.76%.
“With two months left of this historically busy period, potential homebuyers will likely not see relief from rising rates anytime soon,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a press release. “However, many seem to have acclimated to these higher rates, as demonstrated by the recently released pending home sales data coming in at the highest level in a year.”
According to LenderPrice data posted late morning on Thursday on the National Mortgage News website, the 30-year FRM was at 7.36%, nearly 10 basis points lower than it was at the same time last week, 7.457%.
One of the elements in pricing mortgages, the 10-year Treasury yield, has remained elevated, even though it was down from one week ago, when on April 25, it peaked at 4.74%. By April 29, it closed at 4.61%.
This reflects market conditions following the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision at its April/May meeting not to change short-term rates. Investors, who once thought a June cut was likely, have backed off that position.
Rates are likely to remain in the 7% range in the future, said Richard Martin, director, real estate lending solutions for analytics firm Curinos, which also tracks mortgage rate data. He added that while he expects rates to fall a bit by the end of the year, he is a little more bearish than Fannie Mae’s latest outlook.
In terms of the impact on mortgage rates, the Fed’s decision was anticipated and already priced in.
“I like to characterize it as no one predicted the level and pace of increases no one’s going to predict the level and paces of decreases,” Martin said. If the FOMC was to cut rates, it would likely be closer to the end of the year.
On April 30, the first day of the FOMC meeting, the yield moved higher again, by a little over 7 basis points to just shy of 4.68%. However, the next day, it went down to 4.60%.
As of mid-morning on Thursday, the 10-year yield was almost 4 basis points higher.
Where mortgage rates currently are makes the environment tough for mortgage originators and title underwriters, but is good for companies that are “servicing-heavy,” said Bose George in a commentary issued after the FOMC meeting.
“Despite the headwinds around mortgage volumes, stable home price appreciation should remain a positive for mortgage credit,” George said.
Martin expects rates to hold in the current range, as does Redfin’s economic research lead Chen Zhao.
“The Fed meeting is unlikely to push mortgage rates down — but the good news is that it won’t push them up, either, which could have happened if the Fed took 2024 rate cuts off the table,” Zhao said in a press release. “Even though housing costs shouldn’t climb much more, they will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, which could push more buyers away.”
Martin is leaning towards a mild recession occurring in the future, noting the U.S. economy is not yet out of the woods.
The 10-year Treasury is just one influence on mortgage pricing; the other is the primary-secondary market spreads related to securitization activity.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Fed will reinvest any proceeds from mortgage-backed securities run-off over $35 billion into Treasuries. That translates into lower purchase activity
“While this is in line with market expectations, we think this will continue to be negative technical for agency MBS,” George said.
It is not just those spreads that could influence pricing, Martin said, noting the record per-loan production losses originators suffered last year.
Homebuyers are still suffering from interest rate shock, said Jeremy Sicklick, CEO of real estate firm HouseCanary. “With mortgage rates creeping over 7%, many buyers and sellers alike seem to be holding out for rate cuts in the months ahead before jumping into the housing market,” Sicklick said in a press release.
HouseCanary data found the median price of all single-family listings rose 3.2% over a year ago, while closed listings rose 8%.
“With high mortgage rates and surging home prices tamping down market activity, we expect to see a subdued spring buying season continue throughout May, despite inventory increases,” Sicklick declared.
But besides higher rates, the problems around inventory and affordability remain.
“I think we’ve got to solve for those in concert,” Martin said. “Lower rates will help but I don’t think it’s enough to really materially move that needle.”
Source: nationalmortgagenews.com
Mortgage rates have climbed five weeks in a row and are now at their highest levels since the week before Thanksgiving.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.32% in the week ending May 2, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. It was an increase of nine basis points over the previous week. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) It marked the highest level since mid-November.
The 30-year mortgage has risen 63 basis points in five weeks. That’s unusual. When mortgage rates go up, they usually climb unhurriedly, like they’re taking the stairs. But they hopped an elevator a little more than a month ago. Inflation is the culprit.
The core consumer price index stood at 5.6% year-over-year in March 2023. Six months later, core inflation had slowed to 4.1%. It looked like inflation was steadily moving toward the Federal Reserve‘s goal of 2% after the Fed had raised short-term interest rates 11 times in a year and a half.
But since last fall, progress on inflation has stalled. From October to March (the last inflation report available), core inflation dropped from 4% to 3.8%.
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Even the Fed expressed frustration about inflation’s persistence. “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective,” the central bank said in a statement May 1 at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting. That might seem like a mild-mannered assertion, but in the buttoned-up world of the Fed, it’s the equivalent of banging one’s head against the desk.
At a news conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked repeatedly if the central bank will be compelled to raise short-term interest rates again to restrain inflation. He said a rate hike is unlikely. But he said he’s not in a hurry to cut the federal funds rate, either. “We want to be confident that inflation is moving … sustainably down to 2%,” he said.
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates — financial markets do — but the central bank exerts a strong influence. This outlook wasn’t news to financial markets. Investors know that inflation is lingering. Markets concluded more than a month ago that the Fed wouldn’t cut rates in the near future. That’s when mortgage rates embarked on this multiweek rise.
Home buyers and sellers might be growing accustomed to these interest rates, prompting them to get on with their lives by making and accepting offers for real estate.
About 93,000 homeowners listed their homes for sale last week, according to Mike Simonsen, president of Altos Research, a real estate analytics firm. “That’s much more than in any week in the entire last year,” he said in his weekly YouTube commentary. He added that 76,000 offers were accepted last week, “more than any week in 2023.”
Increases in listings and sales reflect multiple motivations: Some sellers and buyers may have wanted to act before mortgage rates climb even higher, while others might have given up on the prospect of lower rates anytime soon, prompting them to take action. It’s best to avoid timing the market and instead to buy or sell a home based on one’s needs. The bottom line is that houses continue to change hands, even with mortgage rates above 7%.
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Source: nerdwallet.com