Mortgage rates eased slightly this week, enough to reheat the homebuying momentum as the market heads into a traditionally busy season of the year, according to Freddie Mac.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.88% for the week ending March 7, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s a drop from the previous week when it averaged 6.94%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.73%.
The average rate for a 15-year mortgage was 6.22%, down from 6.26% last week and up from 5.95% last year.
The slight drop in borrowing costs led to a nearly 10% jump in mortgage applications, indicating that buyer interest is strong as the market heads into the spring homebuying season, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications survey.
“Evidence that purchase demand remains sensitive to interest rate changes was on display this week, as applications rose for the first time in six weeks in response to lower rates,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said. “Mortgage rates continue to be one of the biggest hurdles for potential homebuyers looking to enter the market. It’s important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders, so shopping around is essential.”
If you are looking to take advantage of the current mortgage rates by refinancing your mortgage loan or are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.
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While the Federal Reserve has said that the plan to reverse interest rate hikes is still in the works, the timeline for when those cuts will begin has been unclear. A reversal in interest rates is crucial in creating more affordability for buyers also dealing with record home price gains.
However, housing supply is improving, according to a recent Redfin report. New listings rose 13% from a year earlier nationwide during the four weeks ending March 3, the most significant increase in nearly three years. And home prices have also lost some momentum. Roughly 5.5% of home sellers dropped their asking price, the highest share of any February since at least 2015, while the share of affordable homes on the market has increased, according to Realtor.com.
“Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, and since there is no indication that the Fed will set interest rates meaningfully lower in the short term, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall much this year,” Voxtur Analytics Senior Vice President David Sober said in a statement. “If a potential homebuyer is waiting for a lower rate, with house prices still rising overall, they probably won’t get the deal they want anytime soon.”
If you’re looking to become a homeowner, you could still find the best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score.
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Despite the continued increase in rates, homebuyers could save on borrowing costs by shopping for the best rate with the right lender.
When mortgage rates are high, borrowers can save more by shopping around. Mortgage rate variability more than doubled in 2022 when rates exceeded 7%, according to Freddie Mac research. Borrowers who shopped for five different rate quotes could have saved more than $6,000 over the life of the loan, assuming the loan remains active for at least five years.
“The increase in rate dispersion means that consumers with similar borrower profiles are being offered a wide range of mortgage rates,” Genaro Villa, a macro and housing economics professional for Freddie Mac, said in the research brief. “In the context of today’s rate environment, although mortgage rates are averaging around 6%, many consumers that fit the same borrower profile could have received a better deal on one day and locked in a 5.5% rate, and on another day locked in a rate closer to 6.5%.”
If you are ready to shop for a mortgage loan or are looking to refinance an existing one, you can use the Credible marketplace to compare rates and lenders and get a mortgage preapproval letter in minutes.
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Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.
Source: foxbusiness.com
Recent swings in mortgage rates are helping to drag down contract signings, which fell 5% in January, the National Association of REALTORS® reported this week. Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator of housing activity based on contract signings, were down 8.8% compared to a year earlier.
“The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “This combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying. However, consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.”
In recent weeks, mortgage rates have started creeping back toward 7%. Freddie Mac reports the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.94% this week, marking a two-month high. “While this is still below the rates seen in the fall of 2023, it impacts home buyers’ excitement about entering a spring market,” says NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz. The monthly mortgage payment for a $400,000 home, assuming a 20% down payment, now translates to about $2,116, Lautz adds. “For first-time buyers who are the most price-sensitive, the rise in mortgage rates poses a cause for concern, as they may be priced out of the market.”
Indeed, “the recent boomerang in rates has dampened already tentative homebuyer momentum as we approach the spring, a historically busy season for home buying,” adds Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “While sales of newly built homes are trending in a positive direction, higher rates and elevated prices continue to pose affordability challenges that may leave potential home buyers on the sidelines.”
Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Feb. 29:
Source: nar.realtor
The numbers: Pending home sales fell in January as rising mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the housing market.
Pending home sales fell 4.9% in January from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for an existing-home sale, but the sale has not yet closed. Economists view it as an indicator of the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.
The drop in pending home sales was the largest since August 2023, when they fell 5%.
The sales pace fell short of expectations on Wall Street. Economists were expecting pending home sales to increase by 1.5% in January.
Transactions were down 8.8% from last year.
Big picture: Mortgage rates began their ascent to 7% towards the end of January, when the market saw that the Federal Reserve would not be cutting interest rates in March.
Even slight increases in rates can affect how much some buyers can afford to buy a home. At 7%, the monthly payment on a $400,000 home would be roughly $2,700, and buyers would potentially need to earn $108,440 a year to afford that comfortably.
Looking ahead, applications for purchase mortgages are trending down, as mortgage rates remain over 7% at the end of February. That indicates that sales activity may be muted in the coming months.
What the Realtors said: “The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement.
While “this combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying,” he added, “consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.”
What they’re saying: “Pending home sales, or contract signings, measure the first formal step in the home sale transaction, namely, the point when a buyer and seller have agreed on the price and terms,” Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, said in a statement.
“Pending home sales tend to lead existing home sales by roughly one-to-two months and are a good indicator of market conditions,” she added. And “the recent uptick in rates could mean slower seasonally adjusted sales as the spring homebuying season kicks off.”
Source: marketwatch.com
Fannie Mae has a rosy outlook for mortgage rates. The government sponsored enterprise is projecting that rates will drop below 6% by the end of 2024, which in turn will boost refi volumes and help thaw the existing home sales market.
Following years of volatility in mortgage rates, the housing market will begin its gradual return to a more normal balance in 2024.
Fannie Mae’s economic and strategic research (ESR) group expects home sales and mortgage origination activity to begin a gradual recovery in the presence of a slow-growing economy.
“Inflation’s decline and the resultant Fed pivot to signaling future rate cuts rates lead us to believe that home sales and mortgage originations likely bottomed out in the second half of 2023 and that a gradual improvement is now underway. We expect mortgage rates to dip below 6% by year-end 2024 and for homebuilders to continue to add new supply, both of which should aid affordability,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist.
The ESR group expects the annualized pace of existing home sales to move up to 4.5 million units by the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 3.8 million in Q4 2023.
Overall, Fannie Mae expects that the slowly normalizing existing homes market, as well as additional housing supply from the construction of new homes, will help keep further home price growth in check in 2024.
Home prices are now expected to rise 3.2% over the year, compared to 7.1% in 2023.
Fannie Mae forecasts the total single-family mortgage originations volume to be $1.98 trillion in 2024 and $2.44 trillion in 2025, up from $1.50 trillion in 2023.
Of the total $1.98 trillion origination volume in 2024, $1.5 trillion is projected to come from purchase origination volume, a 19% increase from $1.3 trillion in 2023.
Refinance mortgage origination volume will remain subdued as about 90% of outstanding Fannie Mae single-family conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage loans currently have a note rate below 6%.
“So, while many recent borrowers from 2023 will begin to face meaningful benefits by refinancing, a strong refinance wave driven by rate-term borrowers is not expected in 2024. Even as rates moderate, we expect continued interest in cash-out refinancing relative to past periods, especially given heightened levels of aggregate homeowner equity available following the home price gains of the last few years,” the ESR group said.
Another good news is that Fannie Mae removed its explicit call for a recession in 2024 and replaced it with an expectation of “below-trend growth.”
While Fannie Mae had forecast a modest downturn in 2024 up until last year, the ESR Group noted the rapid recent easing in financial conditions following the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and the solid, upward trend in real personal income growth in October and November as positive impulses for growth over the coming quarters.
As a result, Fannie Mae upgraded its 2024 economic outlook to a modest expansion of 1.1% from a 0.3% Q4/Q4 contraction of real gross domestic product (GDP).
Still, the ESR group believes the economy remains at a higher-than-normal risk for a recession in 2024.
Mixed labor market signals, recent rise in shipping rates due to attacks on container vessels in the Red Sea and easing of monetary policy opening doors for inflation to possibly reanimate are among the factors that Fannie Mae listed as risks for a recession.
“Our baseline forecast continues to show inflation trending toward the Fed’s 2% target over the course of the year, but risks to the outlook remain,” said the ESR group.
Source: housingwire.com
A “sale pending” sign is posted in front of a home for sale on November 30, 2023 in San Anselmo, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Home prices rose 4.8% nationally in October compared with October 2022, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. That’s a jump from the 4% annual increase in September and marks the strongest annual gain seen in 2023.
The 10-city composite rose 5.7%, up from a 4.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-city composite rose 4.9%, up from a 3.9% advance in September.
The strength in home prices came despite a sharp rise in mortgage interest rates in October. The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan crossed 8% on Oct. 19, according to Mortgage News Daily. That was the highest level in more than two decades. Rates, however, dropped steadily through November and more sharply in December, with the 30-year fixed rate now hovering around 6.7%.
“Home prices leaned into the highest mortgage rates recorded in this market cycle and continued to push higher,” said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at S&P DJI, in a release. “With mortgage rates easing and the Federal Reserve guiding toward a slightly more accommodative stance, homeowners may be poised to see more appreciation.”
Among the top 20 cities, Detroit reported the largest year-over-year gain in home prices at 8.1% in October. San Diego followed with a 7.2% increase and then New York with a 7.1% gain. Home prices in Portland, Oregon, fell 0.6%, the only city in the index showing lower prices in October versus a year ago.
“Home price gains in the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index have increased by 7% since the beginning of the year and are 1% higher than at the peak in 2022, recovering all losses recorded in the second half of 2022,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Given the stronger seasonal gains seen in early 2023, annual home price appreciation should accelerate this winter before slowing again next year.”
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Source: cnbc.com
As we approach Christmas day, we can only hope that the Federal Reserve now realizes their fear of 1970s-style inflation created a rate-hike cycle that disproportionately impacted the U.S. housing market and that they need to be pro-housing again.
Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housing market stayed intact and never broke. Let’s look at the tracker for the week before Christmas and see what the forward-looking data looks like before we open presents.
We are near the end of the year, which means the seasonal decline in housing inventory will take hold until we find the seasonal bottom in inventory in 2024. However, one thing is sure: from 2020 to 2023 we never saw credit-stressed home sellers. We never saw the Airbnb crash that dominated some of the housing headlines in 2023. While inventory levels are still too low for my taste, it’s good that we are not at 2022 levels when we only had 240,194 total active single-family listings for Americans to buy.
One of my concerns with higher mortgage rates was that we could see another new leg lower in new listings data, which wouldn’t be good for housing because most sellers are homebuyers. This got tested in 2023 with 8% mortgage rates; not only did that not happen, but the new listing data was very stable, meaning it was forming a bottom. This is a big Merry Christmas gift for the housing market. Months ago on CNBC, I talked about how we should see some growth in this data in the second half of the year we have!
However, the key to this data line is that we want to see real year-over-year growth in the spring of 2024 — back to levels of 2021 and 2022. Historically speaking, 2021 and early 2022 were the two lowest ever in new listings data. But once rates went above 6%, since July of 2022, we were treading for 17 months at a new low. For us to have a functioning marketplace, we need new listing data to get back to 2021 and 2022 levels, which means more sales can happen in 2024 This will be something I am rooting for in 2024.
New listings data for the last week in the last several years:
Traditionally, one-third of all homes will have price cuts before they sell. When mortgage rates rise and demand decreases, more homes see price cuts. However, even with mortgage rates reaching 8% this year, we trended below 2022 levels the entire time. We are ending the year with almost 1.5% lower mortgage rates and the price cut percentage data below 2022 levels.
Price cut percentages this week over the last few years:
Considering the fireworks we had two weeks ago, last week was very tame. Not too much movement on the 10-year yield or mortgage rates. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.65% and ended at 6.68%. We had a lot of interesting economic data, especially the PCE inflation data running at roughly 2% growth using the 3- and 6-month averages. However, last week saw little volatility on the 10-year yield. Next we have the final week of trading with some big bond market auctions happening. We might see some decent movement in the bond market next week.
This will be the last purchase application update for the year as the MBA takes the holiday week off and we will report the holiday period in the new year. Traditionally, I tell people to ignore the last few weeks of the year as most people are getting ready for Christmas and New Years so volume always falls. However, with that said, last week saw a mild decline of 0.6% on a week-to-week basis, making the year-to-date count 23 positive and 24 negative, with two flat prints.
Considering that mortgage rates rose from 5.99% to 8.03% and we might have more positive weekly purchase application prints than negative weekly prints this year speaks volumes. The housing market is working from a low bar in sales, but that roughly 4 million core homebuyers stayed steady in 2023. Total home sales should be near 5 million even with the massive home price gains and higher mortgage rates.
It will be a quiet week for economic reports; we will have a few home price index reports and some sizable bond auctions that can potentially move the bond market in a holiday trading week.
I want to wish you a happy holiday and a Merry Christmas. I know it’s been rough for the housing market this year with a deficient volume of existing home sales and loan originations. We should have a better 2024 and my 2024 forecast will come out on Jan. 1, 2024. Until then, enjoy the holidays with your family and remember: the housing market took it on the chin for two years and it bent with the lowest sales levels in history when accounting for the civilian workforce, but it didn’t break, and neither did any of you reading this.
Source: housingwire.com
Another year, another increase in the conforming loan limit, thanks to continued home price gains.
The FHFA announced today that the new limit for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be a whopping $766,500 in 2024.
This figure is up $40,350 from the current loan limit of $726,200 for 2023.
The conforming loan limit is dictated by the annual change in home prices, which as you may have guessed, went up, again.
These loan limits are even larger in high-cost regions of the United States, special designated areas like Hawaii, and for multi-unit properties.
One-unit property: $766,550
Two-unit property: $981,500
Three-unit property: $1,186,350
Four-unit property: $1,474,400
As noted, the 2024 conforming loan limit has increased to $766,550 for one-unit properties.
This is the result of home prices rising 5.56% between the third quarters of 2022 and 2023.
Specifically, seasonally-adjusted nominal house prices from the expanded-data FHFA HPI are used to determine annual home price appreciation.
While it’s yet another increase, it’s nearly half the increase seen from 2022 to 2023, a sign of slowing home price appreciation.
Home prices still went up over the past year, but as mortgage rates more than doubled before surpassing 8%, the gains expectedly slowed.
But even if home prices decline in the future, this baseline loan limit will not decrease. Rather, it would remain flat, and would need to “make up” any losses before it could increase further.
This happened from the third quarter of 2007 until the third quarter of 2016, with the 2017 loan limit increase breaking nearly a decade of unchanged limits.
Tip: While VA loans no longer have loan limits if the borrower has full entitlement, these FHFA limits apply if they have remaining entitlement.
Also note that FHA loans have loan limits set at 65% of conforming limits in low-cost areas, while the high-costs areas are set at 150%.
Beginning January 1st, 2024, you’ll be able to get a loan amount as large as $766,550 backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
This is important as the pair allow down payments as low as 3% with a 620 FICO score, and have more flexible underwriting guidelines compared to jumbo loan lenders.
Meanwhile, a jumbo loan lender may require 20% down and a FICO score of at least 660.
Additionally, conforming mortgage rates tend to be cheaper than jumbo mortgage rates, though this trend reversed for the past few years before normalizing recently.
Regardless, it’s generally easier to get a conforming home loan than it is a jumbo loan, so it can be beneficial to stay at/below these limits.
As you can see, the loan limits are even higher if it’s a duplex, triplex, or fourplex, with loan amounts as high as $1,474,400 accepted.
One-unit property: $1,149,825
Two-unit property: $1,472,250
Three-unit property: $1,779,525
Four-unit property: $2,211,600
But wait, there’s more! The loan limits are even higher in high-cost areas of the country.
These are defined as counties where 115 percent of the local median home value exceeds the baseline conforming loan limit.
The ceiling (maximum) for these high-cost limits is set at 150 percent of $766,550, or $1,149,825 for one-unit properties.
But they can also fall between the baseline and the ceiling depending on median home value.
This means a borrower in Los Angeles will be able to get a high-balance conforming loan for $1,149,825, while a home buyer in San Diego could get a slightly lower loan amount of $1,006,250.
Or in places like Denver, it’s just slightly above the baseline limit at $816,500.
This is why it’s important to know your county loan limit before you look for a home. Or if you’re a real estate agent, you can use these limits to set a strategic listing price.
Also note that loan limits are higher (set at the ceiling) in statutorily-designated areas including Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
So a prospective home buyer in Maui or Anchorage can get a $1,149,825 loan on a one-unit property and won’t have to worry about it being subject to jumbo loan underwriting.
The FHFA said the conforming loan limits will be higher in all but five U.S. counties or county equivalents.
There are over 3,000 counties or county-equivalent jurisdictions in the United States, with roughly 100 to 200 of them qualifying for high-cost limits.
You can see the full list of 2024 loan limits here.
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
An interesting report was released today by Zillow, which noted that despite recent home price gains, underwater homeowners still collectively owe more than $1.2 trillion more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
That $1.2 trillion is shared by a staggering 16 million homeowners, which broken down is roughly $75,000 per household, according to the first quarter Zillow® Negative Equity Report.
Of course, the negative equity amount will be much higher in the hard-hit, expensive states, such as California, Arizona, and Florida.
And it has actually gotten worse. About 31.4% of homeowners with mortgages were underwater as of the end of the first quarter, a slight rise from the 31.1% seen a quarter earlier.
However, it is down a bit from the 32.4% seen a year ago. Still, shaving a mere 1% over the course of a year isn’t that impressive.
You also have to wonder if the numbers look even better thanks to underwater homeowners either walking away or being foreclosed on during that time. They’re no longer underwater…they’re just homeless.
But perhaps the scariest figure in the report is that more than a quarter (26.8%) of homeowners with mortgages in the Las Vegas metro area owe double what their homes are currently worth. I guess no one really wins in that city.
While that all sounds pretty awful, Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries seems to be a little more upbeat.
He noted that despite the large number of underwater borrowers, nine out of 10 are still making their mortgage payments on time.
Additionally, he noted that the negative equity is essentially a “paper loss,” as it hasn’t been realized for most, and maybe never will, assuming they stick around and home prices turnaround.
To veer away from the good news for a moment, the average underwater homeowner in Las Vegas can expect their home equity in 2020 to be a paltry $1,039.
So in about eight years, Sin City residents will be rewarded with a sliver of breathing room. Of course, you still won’t be able to sell without a loss given real estate agent commissions and what not.
In Detroit, it’s even worse. Underwater homeowners there will still be, on average, $7,156 in the red by the next decade.
Okay, back to the good news. The majority of homeowners who are underwater are only just underwater.
That’s right; nearly 40% of underwater borrowers owe anywhere from one to 20 percent more than what their homes are currently worth, which obviously sounds very manageable, assuming they can stick it out.
However, an additional 20% owe between 21-40 percent more than what their homes are worth.
And 2.4 million homeowners still owe double what their homes are worth. It’s hard to imagine many of them getting back on track, even with programs like HARP 2.0 out there.
So as you can see, there’s plenty of good and bad news here, and depending on which way the economy goes, it could get a lot better, or a lot worse, exponentially. It’s also very regional. Some areas of the country will take much longer to recover back to peak home prices than others.
The takeaway from all this is that those buying now have a huge head start versus existing borrowers, most of whom continue to make on-time payments. But with more downside risk ahead, it’s still a little murky. At least you’ll have a low mortgage rate…
Check out the map below to see the underwater carnage from sea to shining sea:
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Well, 2012 is now in the rear-view mirror, and looking back, it was a good year for housing, if the numerous recent research reports are any indication.
The latest shot of good news came from Zillow, which reported Monday that U.S. home prices increased 5.9% last year.
Their Home Value Index (ZHVI) increased to $157,400 in the fourth quarter, up a strong 2.5% from the third quarter.
In 2012, home values increased in all four quarters thanks to relatively low asking prices and limited inventory.
The biggest gains were seen in the hardest-hit areas, including Phoenix, AZ, where prices jumped a staggering 22.5% last year.
They’re expected to climb another 8.5% this year, though one should keep in mind that they fell 56.2% from peak to trough.
The Las Vegas and Miami metros have also been winners over the past few years, though they too experienced nasty home price drops post-crisis.
The biggest gainers for 2013 are expected to be Riverside, CA (12.5%), Sacramento, CA (11.9%), Phoenix (8.5%), San Francisco (7.3%), and Los Angeles (7.3%).
The bottom five include Chicago, where home prices are expected to drop 0.6%, and St. Louis, where prices are slated to dip by a meager 0.1%.
Home price appreciation is also projected to be quite poor in Charlotte, NC (0.1%), Cincinnati, OH (0.4%), and New York City (0.5%).
So as always, the outlook is local and regional, though home prices are still expected to rise in most areas nationwide.
Today, the National Association of Realtors also announced that existing home sales increased 9.2% last year compared to 2011.
The preliminary annual count was 4.65 million sales, up from 4.26 million a year earlier.
It was the highest annual total since 2007, and also the biggest year-over-year increase since 2004.
Meanwhile, inventory is still rock bottom. As of the end of December, total inventory fell 8.5% to 1.82 million existing homes available for sale, a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace.
That’s down from 4.8 months in November, and represents the lowest housing supply since May 2005, which was close to the apex of the housing boom.
Unfortunately, the near-six percent appreciation rate was much higher than the “healthy” norm, representing the largest annual increase since 2006, when the market was on the cusp of going bust, per Zillow.
The company noted that the historic standard for home price gains is around three percent annually. So are we repeating history again?
Not so fast. Sure, home prices have increased quite a bit, but they’re still nowhere near where they were in 2006 – 2007.
And home price appreciation is expected to temper quite a bit this year, falling back in line with the historic average, with a 3.3% increase anticipated in 2013.
Last year, home prices probably rose a lot more than normal because of the record low mortgage rates and severe inventory shortages.
But thanks to recent home price gains, a lot more inventory has essentially been “created.”
I’m talking about the many underwater homeowners who were essentially trapped in their homes.
In the third quarter alone, roughly 100,000 homeowners gained positive equity enlightenment, meaning they can now pursue standard sales instead of selling short.
At the same time, short sales are expected to be quicker and more commonplace, so there should be plenty of housing inventory.
Yes, it means home prices won’t continue to surge, but it also means healthier growth, not just another short-term bubble.
And with today’s mortgages of much better quality than their pre-crisis brethren, it bodes very well for the future of housing.
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
“Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. “Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run. The South had a lighter decline in sales … [Read more…]