Solar net energy metering in California (NEM 3.0) is a billing mechanism through which utility companies compensate customers (via credits on their electric bill) for electricity their residential solar systems send to the grid. NEM can make solar more affordable, but some state NEM policies make it less beneficial.
California is one of those states; however, solar panels in California can still be worth it for homeowners. Understanding how net metering works in California can help you get the most out of your solar system.
How net metering has evolved in California
NEM in California has gone through three major versions:
NEM 1.0
California’s first NEM program was implemented in 1996. Under NEM 1.0, solar customers could sell their extra electricity back to the utility at the retail rate (the price at which the utility charged consumers for electricity), they could choose any electric rate plan the utility offered and they didn’t have to pay extra fees for connecting to the grid.
NEM 2.0
NEM 2.0 was introduced in 2016–2017. This version of NEM still compensated customers for excess power at the retail rate, though customers couldn’t offset 100% of the charges (some were “nonbypassable”). It also required solar customers to be on a time-of-use (TOU) rate plan in which the price of power depends on when it’s used, and it introduced an interconnection fee
.
NEM 3.0
Officially called the Net Billing Tariff (NBT), NEM 3.0 is the current version of NEM, adopted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in December 2022 and implemented in April 2023. The NBT cut the rate utilities pay to buy excess solar power by about 75%
.
5 things to understand about net metering in California
These provisions affect many solar installations and related electric bills in California.
Low payment for your excess electricity. This is the biggest factor affecting NBT solar customers. Under the NBT, you are paid for the electricity you send back to the grid according to a complicated “avoided cost” formula that takes into account the value of that electricity to the grid at the time you send it to the grid. Your system will likely send excess electricity to the grid during the middle of the day, which is when lots of other people are also sending excess solar power to the grid. That means the utility will buy your electricity for a much lower rate than it would have under NEM 2.0.
Time-of-use (TOU) rate plan. Under TOU rates, what you pay for electricity depends on when you use it. The NBT requires solar customers to pay specific TOU rates that, compared with other TOU rates, are lower at off-peak use times and higher at peak times. That will further affect your electricity costs and solar savings.
Nonbypassable charges. As the name suggests, solar customers pay these charges even if they generate enough extra power to offset them. Under the NBT, nonbypassable charges are based on all electricity you pull from the grid.
Monthly billing, annual true-up. The utility keeps a running tally of whether the value of the power you’ve used from the grid is more than the value of the power you’ve sent to the grid. If you took more than you gave, you’ll get a bill from the utility; if you gave more than you took, the utility gives you a credit on your bill. This reconciliation exercise used to happen once a year; now it’s once a month. “Under NEM 2.0, residential customers of investor-owned utilities do not pay more than the roughly $10 minimum bill if they owe more than that at the end of a month. They pay the cumulative amount owed at their annual true-up date,” said Brad Heavner, policy director at the California Solar and Storage Association (CALSSA), in an email. “Under NBT, if customers owe an amount at the end of a month, they pay that full amount. This avoids surprise annual true-up bills.”
Solar system size limit. Under the NBT, customers can install enough solar to offset up to 150% of their electricity use. To do this, they must sign a statement acknowledging that they are getting more solar than they need to serve their rate of consumption, Heavner said. However, utilities have been inconsistent in implementing this, said Barry Cinnamon, CEO of California solar company Cinnamon Energy Systems, in an email. Be aware of size limits if you already have solar and want to add more, which might bump you from NEM 1.0 or NEM 2.0 to the NBT. “There are ways for customers to increase the size of their existing NEM 1.0 or NEM 2.0 system without triggering a change to the NBT,” Cinnamon said. “Contact your local installer for more information on these solar expansion possibilities.”
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How to make California net metering (NEM 3.0) work for you
Even with the drawbacks of the NBT, solar may still make sense for your California home. Here’s how you can make NEM 3.0 work for you.
Add a battery
A solar battery can make a big difference in the cost-effectiveness of your solar under the NBT. Instead of sending excess electricity back to the grid at a low rate, you can store it in your battery and use it later. You can also avoid high TOU rates by charging the battery when you’re generating the most electricity, then using that electricity during expensive peak TOU hours.
For these reasons, many new solar customers in California are turning to batteries. According to the Energy Information Administration, the number of California solar customers installing batteries with their solar panels jumped from just over 20% in October 2023 to well over 50% in April 2024
. A May 2024 study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that the percentage of California solar installations that were paired with energy storage rose from 10% to 60% .
Batteries are expensive, however. In California, the average cost is $7,706 after the 30% federal tax credit, according to EnergySage
.
Shift your energy use
If you can, use energy when you’re generating the most solar or when rates are low. For example, do laundry in the middle of the day or charge an electric car after peak evening hours. If you work from home, you may already use more electricity during the day, when your system is generating the most.
🤓Nerdy Tip
Solar leasing allows homeowners to rent solar panels. Instead of a big upfront investment, homeowners typically make monthly lease payments. However, the homeowners don’t own the panels, so they typically don’t qualify for tax incentives or rebates, and the lease contract may make it more challenging to sell their houses.
Go solar before export rates go down
Every two years, the CPUC updates the avoided cost calculator, which determines what the utility will pay consumers for their excess electricity.
“Customers lock in the currently calculated export rates for the next nine years,” Heavner said. “These numbers change each year, but you know what they are according to the current calculation of export rates. This lock-in will no longer be available to customers installing after 2028.”
Export rates have been coming down, Heavner said. They could also go up in the future, becoming more favorable to NBT customers, as the value of energy sent to the grid increases because of rising electricity demand.
“It is not clear how the utilities will change the NBT export rate,” Cinnamon said. “The original export rates were already effectively reduced by utilities, so I expect that these export rates will continue to change in the utilities’ favor.”
Look at the big savings picture
Solar panels usually last 20–30 years. Although the NBT lengthened the solar payback period (now nine years, by some estimates), you may still save money over time. In addition, rapidly rising electricity costs could shorten that payback period
.
Frequently asked questions
What’s the difference between net metering and net billing?
Under net metering, you sell solar-generated electricity to the grid at the retail rate. Under net billing programs, you sell your excess energy to the grid at a below-market rate.
In California, this lower rate is based on a calculated value of the electricity at the moment it’s sent to the grid. This is also known as the “avoided cost” rate because it reflects the costs the utility avoids by buying power from you instead of producing that power or purchasing it elsewhere.
Can I install solar now and add a battery later?
Yes. If energy storage isn’t right for you at the moment, you can still go solar now and add a battery later if costs come down.
Will there be a new version of the NBT in California?
NEM policies have been shifting across the nation, and it’s possible that the NBT in California will change.
By now you’ve heard the news. President Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and paved the way for current VP Kamala Harris to run in his place.
That was big news that shook up the election overnight, and now there is a renewed focus on Harris, including her financial disclosures.
The WSJ ran a story today about how she manages her money, pointing out her penchant for index funds and her ultra-low rate 2.625% mortgage.
I dug a little deeper to see what kind of mortgage she had, along with when and where she got it.
And it turns out it’s an adjustable-rate mortgage, which we all know aren’t for the faint of heart.
Kamala Seems to Really Love the 7-Year ARM
With regard to that 2.625% mortgage Kamala Harris holds, it turns out it’s a 7-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
This is a popular type of ARM these days because it provides 84 months of interest rate stability before the first adjustment.
In that respect, homeowners can take one out and not worry about their rate increasing for many years.
And in the meantime, either sell their property or refinance the mortgage if need be.
Harris obtained her latest mortgage in 2020 and was able to get a very low interest rate set at 2.625% until the year 2027.
It’s unclear what the exact loan amount is, but it was revealed to be somewhere between $1,000,000 and $5,000,000.
We also know that the lender in question is Wells Fargo, which has had its share of controversies over the past decade, including improper mortgage lock fees.
What’s even more interesting is this isn’t Harris’ first 7-year ARM. A prior financial disclosure revealed that she took out the same type of loan in 2016 as well.
It featured the same exact mortgage rate, 2.625%. And you guessed it, also came from San Francisco-based bank Wells Fargo.
But wait, there’s more! If we go back to 2012, she took out another 7/1 ARM set at an even lower 2.5%.
In total, that’s three 7-year ARMs in a row dating back about 12 years. Based on that timing, you’d expect a fourth around now, but mortgage rates are no longer cheap.
Unfortunately, a typical 7-year ARM might now go for closer to 5% or higher, making it a pretty terrible deal. So until rates improve, she’ll likely be holding onto the 2020 loan.
She’s Got Another Three Years to Figure Out Her Next Move
It’s not uncommon for homeowners to take out ARMs and refinance them over and over into new ARMs.
The logic is that an ARM is typically cheaper than a fixed-rate mortgage, and if you refinance it before it becomes adjustable, you get the upside (lower rate) without any of the downside (higher rate adjustment).
The one caveat is the closing costs each time you refinance, though a no cost refinance can work if rates remain cheap.
There’s also the time aspect, as it can take about a month to get a mortgage, and it can be a pain to go through the process.
But if you don’t mind all that, you can get a cheaper mortgage and allocate the savings elsewhere, such as an index fund.
You also get a smaller payment over time if you refinance into a new 30-year loan term since the loan amount will be smaller thanks to several years of paying it down.
Anyway, it seems Harris employed this strategy for the past decade while mortgage rates hit record lows and it worked out favorably.
However, it appears her next move won’t be as easy now that mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past few years.
Her Mortgage Rate Could Jump to 4.625% in 2027
Come 2027, her 7-year ARM will see its first adjustment, and that means it’ll likely rise from 2.625% to 4.625%.
There are typically caps in place that limit initial movement by 2%, and subsequent adjustments by 2%, with a lifetime cap that can’t be exceeded.
So beyond that first adjustment, it could go even higher than 4.625%, perhaps to 6.625% if the associated mortgage index is still inflated at that time.
Assuming that happens, she’d want out of the loan and into something cheaper.
But if mortgage rates are still high then, it might remain her best option, despite being more expensive than her original loan.
This is the big risk of taking out an ARM vs. a fixed-rate loan. With the latter, you never have to worry about a rate adjustment, though you do pay a premium for that assurance.
If all else fails, there’s always the option to sell the property, which solves the adjustable-rate problem.
And if she’s living in the White House, that might work out just fine.
Read on: Are adjustable-rate mortgages finally a good deal again?
(photo: Gage Skidmore)
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 18 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process.
While there’s no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, history suggests–at the very least–that such occurrences are not damaging for a candidate’s political capital. As one example, Reagan’s approval rating immediately jumped 8 points after being shot in 1981. There does seem to have been an initial market reaction in the overnight session, but much like with the presidential debate reaction, it was very underwhelming in the bigger picture. This doesn’t preclude a bigger reaction in November, but as in 2016, the most important political change would be one that results in a one-party sweep (House, Senate, Oval Office).
Mission Score Execution, Pet-Centric Marketing, Website Compliance Tools; STRATMOR on Refi Biz; Webinars and Events
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Mission Score Execution, Pet-Centric Marketing, Website Compliance Tools; STRATMOR on Refi Biz; Webinars and Events
By: Rob Chrisman
Thu, Jun 27 2024, 11:55 AM
“What did people from the Midwest call a small can of pop? A Minnesota.” (Say it out loud to your 3rd grader.) While we’re on a “pop,” lenders in the nation’s midsection are cheering the numbers as large cities in the Northeast and Midwest popped in 2023, reversing earlier population declines, according to Vintage 2023 Population Estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The South still rocks, however. Cities with populations of 50,000 or more grew by an average of 0.2 percent in the Northeast and 0.1 percent in the Midwest after declining an average of 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, in 2022. Those in the West went up by an average of 0.2 percent from 2022 to 2023. Cities in the South grew the fastest, by an average of 1.0 percent, and 13 of the 15 fastest-growing cities were in the South, with eight in Texas alone. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s authentic Expert System AI has powered more than 2 million flawless, hands off underwrites. Every credit risk decision Candor makes is backed by a warranty, eliminating repurchase worries. Hear an interview with American Pacific’s Bill Lowman on motivating people, change management during M&A, and retaining origination staff.)
Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers
With Truv, Revolution Mortgage saves 70 percent on verifications (+5 BPS savings per loan). What does Femi Ayi, EVP Operations, Revolution Mortgage, have to say about Truv? “Since we started our partnership, we’ve taken our costs for verifications from 8 basis points per loan down to 3 basis points per loan.” Truv has helped hundreds of lenders, from the biggest banks, IMBs, and Credit Unions, to the smallest, greatly improve their income, employment, asset, and insurance verifications strategy. You could be one of them: Get started!
ActiveComply, a leader in social media monitoring and virtual office inspections for the financial industry, recently announced that it has officially launched its highly anticipated website monitoring tool: WebCompass. WebCompass will automatically Discover custom employee websites, co-marketing pages, corporate websites, blog posts, news articles, event pages, and other brand mentions. Similar to ActiveComply’s social media monitoring tool used by many institutions today, ActiveComply’s WebCompass tool will not only monitor for compliance and brand reputation concerns, but will also scan for ADA compliance, SEO scoring, provide automated archival to meet record retention requirements, and more. WebCompass is leveraged by financial institutions for ongoing monitoring of corporate and employee-controlled websites alike. Learn more about managing your compliance confidently with ActiveComply or schedule a demo today to see real findings for your institution.
“PDF Insights and Thumbprint® are a powerful combination that helps lenders streamline their loan analysis, speed up their underwriting, and enhance fraud prevention, helping them get to “Yes” or “No” faster and more confidently. Our product is well-suited for alternative mortgage and commercial lenders who rely on bank statements to underwrite loans. MoneyThumb’s tools are faster, more accurate, and significantly lower cost than other solutions. Plus, our customer service is second to none and we don’t require contracts. PDF Insights is a comprehensive financial document evaluation and data extraction tool that enables mortgage lenders to process and analyze hundreds of pages of bank statements accurately and in under 5 seconds. Our patent-pending fraud detection tool, Thumbprint®, uses AI algorithms and machine learning to evaluate and score the authenticity of PDF bank statements. Each document is given a fraud score from 1 to 1000 that indicates the likelihood of fraud.”
Picture this… your borrower completes their mortgage application and shortly after, receives a text asking if they have any pets. When the loan closes, their furry friends get a welcome package including new customized pet tags featuring your brand. The best part? Operation Fido runs automatically from Encompass® by ICE Mortgage Technology™ and you don’t even have to lick the envelope! What would you spend to deliver that kind of joy to your borrower?
STRATMOR on Preparing for the Tough-to-Find Refis
“Rising tides lift all boats.” And many lenders believe that the next wave of refinances will be the surge they need to lift their business back above water. However, some of them may be wrong. In STRATMOR Group’s June Insights Report Senior Partner Garth Graham explains why. “The latest industry forecast predicts a rising tide of refinancing, but there are reasons that the coming wave, when it appears, will be very different from the past,” says Graham. “The typical mortgage banking firm has been taking on water, with the industry showing losses for eight quarters. Many have been selling off servicing rights and stopped retaining servicing on new production because they need the cash. This will put them at risk because while having the cash is good, it also means you have likely sold off the client relationship and the potential refinance when the rate drops in the future.” Check out STRATMOR’s June InFocus article, “Why a Refi Wave Won’t Save Every Lender and How to Prepare,” for more from Garth on what smart lenders are doing now to ensure they survive and thrive when the market improves.
Events, Training, and Webinars
A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future.
Today will be another episode of The Big Picture at 3PM ET… Rich Swerbinsky is interviewing Tabrasa’s Bill Bodnar about the economy and its impact on lenders
Join A&D Mortgage today for an exclusive webinar designed for mortgage brokers and broker owners. Titled “Next-Level Brokerage: Harnessing the Power of Self-Securitizing Lenders,” this session, in collaboration with Jared Neale, Associate at Imperial Fund, will explore the significant benefits of partnering with self-securitizing lenders. Discover how these partnerships can streamline your operations, enhance service offerings, and drive business growth.
Tonight, in San Francisco, CAMP presents, “An Evening with Rob Chrisman.” It should be a fun, informal event if you’re in the area!
Tomorrow, Friday the 28th, will see an episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown with Melissa Langdale and me covering current events in the mortgage market for 30 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET. Tomorrow features Dan Cantinella, Chief Lending Officer for Total Expert.
Class Valuation is hosting a webinar on Friday, June 28, titled “Navigating New Reconsideration of Value (ROV) Requirements for Lenders.” Expert panelists will provide a clear and actionable guide to understanding what changes need to be made and how to make them. You will learn the impact of the new ROV guidelines on lenders, how the borrower-initiated ROV process works, and your responsibilities as a lender under the new guidelines.
Next week is July already…
National MI upcoming July 2024 webinar sessions. Leading a Teamwith Andrew Oxley – July 11th at 2pm ET. How to Plan and Attack the Week for Loan Officers with Dr. Bruce Lund – July 18th at 1pm ET. Become an Open House Success Partnerwith Rebecca Lorenz – July 23rd at 1pm ET. Mortgage Industry Updates Impacting the Balance of 2024 and Beyond with Scott Weghorst, July 25th at 2pm ET.
Newrez Correspondent offers a comprehensive training curriculum on Newrez products and processes, to keep your staff informed of the latest developments in products, technology solutions, compliance issues and process improvements. Each of these programs is offered by its training and development staff on a monthly basis and is updated regularly to reflect recent changes in the industry.
Tuesday the 2nd at 11am PT, two veteran LOs discuss all things mortgage with Industry Leaders. Mortgage Pros 411 with Audrey Boissonou and Kevin Casey.
Now Next Later Mondays at 10 a.m. PT/1 p.m. ET (45 minutes). Hosted by Jeremy Potter and Sasha Stair. Now Next Later is a show intended to provoke thoughtful challenges to the assumptions and strategies common to the housing finance industry. The show believes that looking at the mortgage businesses from a different perspective is critical to staying ahead of constant changes. The show’s goal is to get to better answers by asking better questions. Join each week for new insight and perspective on some of the industry’s most persistent problems. The show includes expertise in product development, go-to-market, data analytics and innovation, and answers well to the high expectations we’ve set for ourselves and our colleagues.
The Last Word Fridays at 10 a.m. PT/1 p.m. ET with two of the following four hosts. Kevin Peranio, Brian Vieaux. The Last Word is your ultimate destination for incisive analysis and spirited discussions on the hottest topics affecting the mortgage sector each week. Hosted by industry veterans, the show delivers expert opinions, forecasts, and critical insights to keep you informed and ahead of the curve. The show offers a comprehensive and engaging analysis of the week’s most important mortgage industry news, providing viewers with the knowledge and insights they need to make informed decisions in a rapidly changing market.
SAVE THE DATE for NMMLA’s upcoming event, The current and future state of Digital Mortgages, on Wednesday, July 10 at 11:00 AM.
The Ultimate Mortgage Expo returns to New Orleans July 10 – 11 and it’s bigger and better than ever before. Join OCN in the beautiful and historic Hotel Monteleone for a jam-packed event featuring 2 days of sessions and 2 days of exhibition hall opportunity. Also, come earlier on July 10 to enjoy complimentary access to the Mortgage Star Conference for women. Enjoy free access to this can’t-miss event using the code OCNFREE.*
MSR holders know that a great subservicing relationship can help reduce costs, lower delinquency rates, and improve borrower relationships. But the fear of a rocky transfer process keeps many from realizing all these benefits. Join Servbank’s cohosted webinar with the Mortgage Bankers Association on July 11 at 1-2p ET to learn how handling thousands of service transfers has gotten Servbank’s transfer plan down to a science. With a battle-tested plan and a laser-focus on customer experience, the painless service transfer is a reality. Register for the webinar today! The webinar is free for non-members by creating an account and entering the campaign code “SERVBANK100” at checkout.
Join ACES EVP, Nick Volpe and ACES President, Phill McCall on July 17, 11:00 AM – 11:45 AM PDT for a QC NOW webinar as they take a deeper dive into these analytics and how it aligns with the current state of the industry and how to best navigate through the volatile financial landscape.
Monday, 5 August 9:00 AM – Tuesday, 6 August at 6:00 PM PDT join the California Association of Mortgage Professionals on August 5th -August 6th for our Annual Summer CAMP at Hyatt Regency Newport Beach, 1007 Jamboree Road, Newport Beach, California.
Capital Markets
Have you heard about the Fannie Mae Mission Score product grids? MCT announced today that they are the first to integrate with the Mission Score API, which empowers originators to take advantage of market incentives for mission-oriented lending. “Fannie Mae changed the market in 2016 by bringing spec programs to the cash window,” said Phil Rasori, COO of MCT. “Now they have done it again by pushing the Mission Score pay-ups available on the securitization side toward front-end borrower pricing.” Learn how you can improve margins and price competitiveness in the upcoming webinar featuring Olga Gorodetsky, Director, Capital Markets at Fannie Mae as well as Phil Rasori of MCT.Pete Skarnulis, Single-Family Business Account Management Solutions – Vice President at Fannie Mae, shared, “through close partnership and collaboration with our industry partners, we’re able to introduce innovative solutions to the market at scale, helping to promote positive change across the mortgage industry.”
When I’m asked about the FHFA encouraging the “release” of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae from conservatorship, I ask, name one government agency that voluntarily ceased operations. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest report on the sale of non-performing loans (NPLs) by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises). The Enterprise Non-Performing Loan Sales Report includes sales information about NPLs sold through December 31, 2023. Borrower outcomes reflect NPLs sold through June 30, 2023. This report shows that the Enterprises sold 168,364 NPLs with a total unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $30.9 billion from program inception in 2014 through December 31, 2023. The loans included in the NPL sales had an average delinquency of 2.8 years and an average current mark-to-market loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 83 percent (not including capitalized arrearages).
While chatter about the Fed and its decisions does have slight bearing on overall mortgage rate movement, events directly tied to the housing market are of arguably higher importance to readers of this commentary. We learned yesterday that the New Home Sales report for May missed expectations, coming in at 619k versus 650k expectations. New home sales fell 11.3 percent month-over-month to the weakest pace in six months as the new home market has softened recently alongside higher mortgage rates, increased availability of existing homes, and moderating economic growth.
Despite hawkish tones continuing to emanate from the Fed, Treasury security prices have rebounded recently due to bets that cooling prices will convince the Fed to cut rates sooner, and by more, than officials have signaled. More accommodative conditions are at odds with recent Fed rhetoric suggesting it’s still too early to consider policy easing. However, hope springs eternal, and investors continue to price in nearly two full 25 basis point rate cuts for the year, including a nearly 60 percent chance of a cut in September. As a reminder, the Fed’s latest dot-plot predicted one 25 basis point cut in 2024.
Today sees a busy calendar in terms of data and supply, and is already under way with the final look at Q1 GDP +1.4 percent (versus expectations of 1.1 percent), durable goods orders for May was +.1 percent (when it was supposed to be unchanged at +0.6 percent), weekly jobless claims (233k), and core PCE. Later today brings pending home sales for May, KC Fed manufacturing, several Treasury auctions that will be headlined by $44 billion 7-year notes (after yesterday’s solid $70 billion 5-year note sale), and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Before the open, Sweden’s Riksbank held rates steady, but forecast two to three rate cuts for later this year. We begin Thursday, after the salvo of numbers, with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Wednesday’s close, the 10-year yielding 4.31 after closing yesterday at 4.32 percent, and the 2-year at 4.73.
Jobs and Transitions
This week, Lower, LLC announced the hiring of industry veteran Craig Montgomery in the role of Chief Strategy Officer. This move signifies a milestone moment in the company’s history as they have added another all-star industry leader to their executive team. In their release, Co-Founder & CEO Dan Snyder commented, “Getting someone with Craig’s experience and proven track record is a big win for the company.” Adding to the celebration, Randell Gillespie, Chief Production Officer for Lower, also commented, “Craig is a consummate pro with a reputation born from success and he is a stellar fit for the Lower community. Couldn’t be more thrilled for him to join our team!” When asked about his transition, Montgomery stated, “I’m so impressed by the Lower platform. I know what originators need to achieve the success they desire… and Lower has it.” Visit Join.Lower.Company for more information about “Life at Lower” and available growth opportunities.
“Join our family-owned Midwest lender as an Account Executive! Operating in 40+ states with a wide-open territory and unlimited growth potential. Ideal for seasoned mortgage pros, or those looking to break into Wholesale Sales. Enjoy competitive pay, benefits, and a supportive team environment. Develop new business opportunities, build strong client relationships, and deliver exceptional service. Interested? Please submit your confidential resume to Chrisman LLC’s Anjelica Nixt for forwarding.”
“Leadership changes for Chase Correspondent Lending! Chase Correspondent Lending is a relationship-driven, forward-looking investor focused on helping our clients and the communities we serve. Kim Salvo, our East Division Manager and a 33-year veteran of Chase, retired in May. We thank Kim for her years of service and wish her the best. With Kim’s departure, we’re excited to announce several changes to our Client Management Leadership team. Effective July 1, Tim Yezbick, current CFO for Correspondent Lending, will be our new East Division Manager. Lisa Plaien, current Director of Client Strategy & Support, will now lead our newly formed Central Division. Chris George will continue as our West Division Manager. Lisa, Tim, and Chris will report to our Head of Client Management, Bhavesh Patel. Please join us in congratulating our new leaders who will continue our commitment to providing a best-in-class experience for our clients. Visit us at www.chaseb2b.com.”
(Remember: employers can view posted resumes for several months for a nominal charge and job seekers can post their resumes for free on www.lendernews.com.)
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Donna Lang Arenshield, has owned Vail Home Outfitters for 30 years.
Brent Bingham, courtesy image
Vail Home Outfitters has offered homeowners distinctive home decor and design for more than 30 years. The team there believes in honesty, integrity and providing a relaxed, beautiful atmosphere when it comes to helping people furnish their homes. They take the time to listen to what you want and cultivate lasting relationships, so that you can find unique items to reflect your personal style. The following is an interview with Donna Lang Arenshield.
Tell us about your interior design experience.
I knew in high school that I wanted to be a designer and graduated with a degree in design in 1975. It seems like yesterday. I then worked for a large retail design showroom — much like Home Outfitters — and my career took off. It was a combination of being in the right place at the right time, and taking advantage of what opportunities were placed in my path. At that job, I worked with a team that created a personal space for the King Khalid of Saudi Arabia at The Cleveland Clinic, designed the offices of Mark McCormack (founder of IMG) and designed the corporate headquarters of Diamond Shamrock.
Finally, the job that jumpstarted my career was working on a team that designed the personal residence of Will McFarlane, who ended up being my extremely supportive mentor, in Naples, Florida. He owned AIRCOA, a hotel equity and management company based in Cleveland, Ohio. After the completion of his home, I was offered the position of director of design for his hospitality company, moving from Cleveland to Denver. So, the majority of my background was in hospitality design: The Brown Palace Hotel in Denver and The Maxwell House in Nashville are just two of the hotels that I am most proud of.
Since 2016, I have been fortunate enough to make the change to residential design. Working on the design of Mikaela Shiffrin’s home in Edwards was the first residential project that helped put Home Outfitters on the map. Since that project, I have been able to work on so many wonderful and creative renovations and new construction here in Vail and around the country. Through those relationships, I have been so fortunate to have formed many wonderful personal relationships.
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What can customers expect when they walk into Home Outfitters?
I feel that we have curated a visual that offers our customers not only a selection of what is new but also what is comfortable and offers a value for them.
What kind of perspective do you bring to curating items in Home Outfitters?
We really do a lot of reading and research in what is new. We offer a bit of what is trending but place an importance of what is lasting for our customers. Furniture is expensive today, and we want to make sure that our customers are receiving a value for their money.
Describe your design services.
DLA: In addition to our retail showroom, we offer a full-service design department. We are hardworking and detail-oriented, but most importantly, we believe that we listen to our clients’ needs and wishes. My overriding philosophy is that our job as designers is to interpret our client’s vision — not impose our aesthetics on our clients.
What makes your store, as well as your services, unique?
We believe that our showroom is a reflection of what our customers are asking for — but they are also looking for our expertise, our experiences and the research we are willing to undertake for them. We love what we do!
What has one of your favorite projects been and why?
I can’t really reduce it to one, though I think of the fun I had working with Mikaela Shiffrin — receiving texts with pictures of furniture she loved and styles that she hoped would work in her home. The honor of working on the Brown Palace Hotel and the history that I was expected to honor was also wonderful. And there’s so much more: every time I finish a home for clients, then being asked to design another one, to my parents trusting me to design their vacation home in Naples. That was a project of love and respect.
What else would you like to add?
I feel it is such an honor to be asked to help someone make their home not only beautiful but also comfortable and personal. In my mind, it’s a trust issue, and I always hope, at the end of the day, I have fulfilled that goal and honored that trust.
Affiliate links for the products on this page are from partners that compensate us (see our advertiser disclosure with our list of partners for more details). However, our opinions are our own. See how we rate mortgages to write unbiased product reviews.
Current 30-year mortgage rates are hovering at 6.55%, according to data from Zillow. Rates trended down slightly in June, though they’ve been holding steady over the last week.
According to the National Association of Realtors, home sales are down 2.8% year over year. The number of houses on the market has actually increased 18.5% over the last year, but the median existing-home price in May hit a record high of $419,300.
“Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions.”
Your best bet for getting the lowest mortgage rate is comparing offers from multiple mortgage lenders, especially if you’re looking to buy before rates and home prices come down.
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Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
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$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This is four basis points lower than it was the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates were 6.17% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a 12-basis-point decrease from the previous week.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Down?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.3%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which may happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Molly Grace
Mortgage Reporter
in 2016.Sarah began her journalism career writing about technology for Engadget and Laptop Magazine, jobs which led to international travel for trade shows and conferences and sparked her interest in credit card benefits.Sarah started educating herself on personal finance best practices during her early years struggling to find balance amid New York City’s high cost of living. The money management skills Sarah learned during her years as a self-employed freelance editor also honed her financial acumen, giving her a passion for helping others navigate the financial challenges of small business ownership, taxes, and budgeting. In her personal life, Sarah loves helping her friends level up their credit card strategies to book fancy hotel rooms and flights. She also loves talking about her dog to anyone who will listen.ExpertiseSarah’s areas of personal finance expertise include:
Credit scores
Credit cards
Loans
Investing
Banking
Insurance
EducationSarah is a graduate of Sarah Lawrence College, where she wrote and edited for the college paper. “>
Sarah Silbert
Deputy Editor
Sarah Silbert is a personal finance expert and award-winning journalist. As deputy editor for Personal Finance Insider, she oversees all of the guides and reviews published across banking, credit, credit cards, mortgages, loans, investing, and insurance. ExperienceSarah joined Business Insider as an editor covering credit cards in 2019, and has built multiple Personal Finance Insider verticals from the ground up. Prior to joining Business Insider, Sarah was a senior editor at The Points Guy for more than four years, covering credit cards and award travel. Alongside her team at TPG, Sarah led the launch of coverage for the popular Chase Sapphire Reserve travel rewards credit card in 2016.Sarah began her journalism career writing about technology for Engadget and Laptop Magazine, jobs which led to international travel for trade shows and conferences and sparked her interest in credit card benefits.Sarah started educating herself on personal finance best practices during her early years struggling to find balance amid New York City’s high cost of living. The money management skills Sarah learned during her years as a self-employed freelance editor also honed her financial acumen, giving her a passion for helping others navigate the financial challenges of small business ownership, taxes, and budgeting. In her personal life, Sarah loves helping her friends level up their credit card strategies to book fancy hotel rooms and flights. She also loves talking about her dog to anyone who will listen.ExpertiseSarah’s areas of personal finance expertise include:
Credit scores
Credit cards
Loans
Investing
Banking
Insurance
EducationSarah is a graduate of Sarah Lawrence College, where she wrote and edited for the college paper.
Loan Trading, Bank Lending, Bank Statement, HELOC, ROV Products; Disaster and Catastrophe News
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Loan Trading, Bank Lending, Bank Statement, HELOC, ROV Products; Disaster and Catastrophe News
By: Rob Chrisman
1 Hour, 41 Min ago
“I saved a bunch of money on my car insurance by… switching to reverse and leaving the scene.” The word on the street is that Guaranteed Rate is changing its name to “Rate,” but of greater concern to lenders is insurance. Homeowner’s insurance costs are no joke, nor are insurance companies stopping business entirely in states and counties. If you have a current homeowner whose bill just went up by $500 per month, know that this is $500 a month that won’t be spent in the general economy buying meals, going to movies, going on vacation… Not only that, but LOs and AEs and capital markets staffs do their darndest to get the best rates for their clients, and saving $50 or $100 a month are a victory, only to have the deal blown out of the water by monthly insurance costs. Insurance, of course, is a state-level issue; certainly, the CFPB does not oversee it. Some state groups are doing something about it. For example, the California MBA would like to point to real-life examples of the consequences across California: Here is a link to a fillable form to enter any helpful information or examples.) Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s authentic Expert System AI has powered more than 2 million flawless, hands off underwrites. Every credit risk decision Candor makes is backed by a warranty, eliminating repurchase worries. Hear an interview with Move Concierge’s Sajag Patel and Gabe Abshire on the home services set up industry.
Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers
On May 1, 2024, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with the FHFA, announced new requirements for reconsiderations of value (ROVs), which go into effect Aug. 29, 2024. The requirements help create uniform industry expectations for how lenders should manage ROVs. Now is the time to prepare and implement solutions to help streamline your ROV processes. With ValidateROV™ from ICE, you can provide your borrowers with a quick and transparent solution that helps guide them through the ROV process via a white-labeled mobile app. Learn more today.
“Looking for scalable Growth? We know the industry is slowly recovering from the challenges of 2023, but it’s not quite smooth sailing yet. Every dollar spent on marketing counts, especially when it can make the difference between being in the red or turning a profit. And let’s not forget, there’s another green field opportunity on the horizon. We have a strategy that’s booking 15 to 35 percent cheaper than usual plays. That’s significant, even more in today’s market. Want in on the action? Whether you’re ready to reach out or prefer us to contact you, we’re here to help.”
HELOC Borrowers can now PAYOFF DEBT TO QUALIFY and still close in as little as 1 day! NFTY and Homebridge Financial have deployed the “Debt Eliminator” enhancement to their EQUITY ACCESS Digital HELOC. Debt Eliminator allows borrowers to select which debts they to pay off as part of the user-friendly automated application process. With loan amounts up to $400k, Equity Access is designed for fast easy closings. Highlights include: instant income verification for most W-2 borrowers, automated analysis of bank statements to determine Income for both W-2 and Self-employed borrowers, AVMs up to $400k, and a banker or broker portal with robust functionality and real-time loan status. Minimum FICO 640 and CLTV up to 80 percent. The hybrid platform is digitally fast with a full staff of customer service professionals to solve real-life complexities and close more loans. Ultra-fast fee payout utilizing ACH. Correspondent white label and broker solutions are available with full branding capabilities to showcase your company/MLO. For more information, contact your Account Executive at REMN or Homebridge Wholesale, or email Joe Sheridan.
“LoanStream wants you to Make a Splash this Summer by closing more Non-QM Bank Statement loans. Join the upcoming webinar on Bank Statement & P&L! Plus, we’ll dive into the intricacies of calculating income to qualify borrowers! Register now. Don’t Miss Summer Specials! Includes Specials on Prime, Non-QM and Closed End Seconds now through 6/30/24. Includes 25 BPS Price Improvement on FHA/VA loans 620+ FICO (excludes DPA and CalHFA) and a 25 BPS Price Improvement on all Non-QM loans (excluding our ‘Select’ credit grade). Get another 25 BPS Price Improvement on Closed-End Seconds. Restrictions apply – contact your LoanStream AE to learn more. Specials valid for loans locked 6/1/2024 through 6/30/2024. Offers subject to change at any time, terms and conditions apply. Non-QM Specials also available through our Correspondent lending channel, Home – LoanStream Mortgage Correspondent (lscorrespondent.com) now through 6/30/24, contact your Regional Sales Executive for more information.”
“Webinar: Thriving in a new market: How banks are shifting their mortgage strategy to succeed. Join us for an exclusive webinar presented by Maxwell on Wednesday, June 26 at 12:00 p.m. CT. In this session, you’ll discover powerful tactics to leverage your mortgage platform that retain and increase consumer deposits, enhance transaction speed by aligning delivery channels with your customer segments, and bring cutting-edge technology to your customers and loan officers without lengthy, costly projects. Plus, you’ll learn how our variable cost model can help you generate profit on every loan you originate. Click here to save your seat today, and if you can’t make the live event, you can still register for the on-demand recording!”
Disaster Updates Continue
FEMA’s Disaster Declarations set the stage for servicers, lenders, and investors to change policies and procedures for loans in process or for existing borrowers in those areas. In the last week or two we’ve had Iowa (DR-4784-IA), Florida (DR-4794-FL), and New Mexico (DR-4795-NM).
Waters in the tropical portion of the Atlantic Ocean, around the Caribbean, are hotter than they have been for any other late May on record. The area is averaging around 84.7 degrees Fahrenheit, a temperature the waters usually don’t hit until August and September after a summer of warming up. This is bad for a lot of reasons, including the future of coral reefs, which are already experiencing a fourth global bleaching event this year, according to NOAA. The previous record-breaking May for sea temperatures in the area was in 2005, a notorious year that brought one of the most destructive and active hurricane seasons ever for the U.S.
The USDA recently released a new plant hardiness zone map as much of the country has, on average, gotten warmer. The new 30-year minimum temperature average was 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous average. The map classifies the U.S. into zones based on an area’s average annual minimum temperature and is most useful for knowing which perennial outdoor plants will possibly not die in your area if you keep them outside. You can and will still kill your plants even if you plant according to the map, since it does not factor in how wet, dry, or volatile your area’s climate is. It also won’t tell you if your plants can actually survive the extreme heat of summer.
On 6/14/2024, with Amendment No. 1 to DR-4784, FEMA revised the Incident Period End Date to May 31, 2024, for Iowa counties affected by severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding from 5/20/2024 to 5/31/2024. See AmeriHome Mortgage disaster announcement 20240614-CL for inspection requirements.
On 6/17/2024, with DR-4794, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to Florida county, Leon. See AmeriHome Mortgage disaster announcement 20240616-CL for inspection requirements.
With DR-4795, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to New Mexico’s Lincoln County affected by the South Fork Fire and Salt Fire from 6/17/2024 and continuing. See AmeriHome Mortgage disaster announcement 20240618-CL for inspection requirements.
Capital Markets
“In 2016, MAXEX changed the face of the secondary market with the establishment of the industry’s first digital mortgage exchange and clearinghouse. More than $36 billion in loan trades later through our unique marketplace, we’re giving our 350+ sellers even more unprecedented liquidity across the non-agency and conforming markets. Coming mid-July, MAXEX sellers will be given exclusive access, only through MAXEX, to a major buyer of Conforming investment and non-owner-occupied loans. MAXEX allows sellers to avoid punitive LLPAs on NOO, second-home and high-balance loans via best efforts or mandatory flow, bulk and forward trading. With MAXEX, sellers sign a single standardized contract, face a single counterparty and have turnkey access to over 30 of the market’s leading buyers. Contact us today to learn how you can gain access.”
Last week’s economic releases didn’t pack the same market moving punch as data released earlier in June but did point to a gradual softening in certain areas. Retail sales moderated in May to 0.1 percent, lower than market expectations of a 0.2 percent increase. Additionally, the prior month’s data was revised lower. A frugal U.S. consumer is a helpful development for the Federal Reserve. Consumers kept spending through the pandemic but are now pinching pennies. Industrial production rose more than market expectations and was driven by a surge in manufacturing output; however, the interest rate environment and credit conditions remain restrictive. Housing continues to struggle as housing starts fell to their lowest annualized pace in four years in May. Both housing starts and building permits were expected to be higher in May, continuing their recovery after a big dip in the spring months. Builder confidence fell to its lowest reading since mortgage rates peaked in December.
Speaking of the tight housing market, we all know that high mortgage rates are keeping people from giving up mortgages they secured before or during the early days of the pandemic. Existing-home sales slipped 0.7 percent in May, as expected, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million. Sales descended 2.8 percent from one year ago. However, the median existing-home sales price jumped 5.8 percent from May 2023 to $419,300, the highest price ever recorded and the eleventh consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
The inventory of unsold existing homes grew 6.7 percent from the previous month to 1.28 million at the end of May, or the equivalent of 3.7 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace versus 3.5 months’ supply in April and 3.1 months from a year ago. The market is not likely to see any meaningful relief in both supply and affordability until mortgage rates subside.
Inflation will take the spotlight in this final week of June, with market participants looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. personal income and outlays data for May. That report contains a reading on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is widely seen as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.1 percent month-over-month and 2.6 percent year-over-year, marking a deceleration on both counts from April. The bulk of the week’s economic releases are tomorrow (Philly Fed services for June, House Price Indices for April, consumer confidence for June, Richmond Fed manufacturing & services for June, and Dallas Fed services for June), though other highlights this week include new home sales for May, advance economic indicators for May, durable goods for May, final Q1 GDP, Chicago PMI for June, final June consumer sentiment, and the aforementioned core PCE price deflator for May. There is also the $183 billion mini-Refunding consisting of $69 billion 2-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion 3-year notes on Wednesday, and $44 billion 7-year notes on Thursday.
This week has a quiet start today, with the sole economic release due out later this morning being Dallas Fed manufacturing for June. Markets will also receive Fed remarks from San Francisco President Daly and Governor Waller. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices unchanged from Friday’s close, the 10-year yielding 4.26 after closing Friday at 4.26 percent, and the 2-year at 4.74.
Employment
loanDepot continues to demonstrate its commitment to growth with another key retail leadership hire in Justin Andrews, a 25-year veteran of home finance who most recently served as National Director of Branch Partnerships at another top IMB. Andrews is an Area Sales Manager who will focus on driving continued market share growth in and around Seattle. He was inspired by the company’s continued investments in its platform, saying “loanDepot has best-in-class systems that make life easier, faster and smoother for both the originator and the customer. That level of efficiency means I have more time to support our team and develop our people.” This is the third win for loanDepot in recent months, coming on the heels of two other significant additions: Jeff Wilkish as RVP for New England and David Rossiello as Area Sales Manager in the mid-Atlantic. Sales leaders who are interested in learning more can reach out to Shane Stanton.
Congratulations to Radian’s Shelly Schwieso-Kramarczuk who, after 35 years in the biz, announced her retirement slated for the end of the month. “Wow, the changes we have seen. Costs just continue to rise to produce a loan, even with all the tech, AI, BOTs etc. I can’t wait to watch the future of mortgage banking. There is so much more to come! It’s been the people along the way that have made the difference. We have so many passionate professionals in our industry who truly care about the borrower, their journey, and moving the puck forward with technology and improving the customer experience. I have been fortunate to have spent my last 6+ years at Radian: Steady through the storm of late!”
(Remember: job seekers can post their resumes for free on www.lendernews.com where employers can view them for several months for a nominal charge.)
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Lee co-founded Michigan-based Success Mortgage Partners in 2002 and has grown the company into a national leader. Under his leadership, the company has closed billions in mortgage loans annually since 2016 and operates in 42 states with over 600 employees. Lee also leads Title Partners, a full-service title and escrow company. Read next: Top producer’s … [Read more…]
When investing, you often want to know how much money an investment is likely to earn you. That’s where the expected rate of return comes in; expected rate of return is calculated using the probabilities of investment returns for various potential outcomes. Investors can utilize the expected return formula to help project future returns.
Though it’s impossible to predict the future, having some idea of what to expect can be critical in setting expectations for a good return on investment.
Key Points
• The expected rate of return is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment based on historical rates of return and the probability of different outcomes.
• The formula for calculating the expected rate of return involves multiplying the potential returns by their probabilities and summing them.
• Historical data can be used to estimate the probability of different returns, but past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
• The expected rate of return does not consider the risk involved in an investment and should be used in conjunction with other factors when making investment decisions.
What Is the Expected Rate of Return?
The expected rate of return — also known as expected return — is the profit or loss an investor expects from an investment, given historical rates of return and the probability of certain returns under different scenarios. The expected return formula projects potential future returns.
Expected return is a speculative financial metric investors can use to determine where to invest their money. By calculating the expected rate of return on an investment, investors get an idea of how that investment may perform in the future.
This financial concept can be useful when there is a robust pool of historical data on the returns of a particular investment. Investors can use the historical data to determine the probability that an investment will perform similarly in the future.
However, it’s important to remember that past performance is far from a guarantee of future performance. Investors should be careful not to rely on expected returns alone when making investment decisions.
💡 Quick Tip: When you’re actively investing in stocks, it’s important to ask what types of fees you might have to pay. For example, brokers may charge a flat fee for trading stocks, or require some commission for every trade. Taking the time to manage investment costs can be beneficial over the long term.
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How To Calculate Expected Return
To calculate the expected rate of return on a stock or other security, you need to think about the different scenarios in which the asset could see a gain or loss. For each scenario, multiply that amount of gain or loss (return) by its probability. Finally, add up the numbers you get from each scenario.
The formula for expected rate of return looks like this:
In this formula, R is the rate of return in a given scenario, P is the probability of that return, and n is the number of scenarios an investor may consider.
For example, say there is a 40% chance an investment will see a 20% return, a 50% chance that the investment will return 10%, and a 10% chance the investment will decline 10%. (Note: all the probabilities must add up to 100%)
The expected return on this investment would be calculated using the formula above:
Expected Return = (40% x 20%) + (50% x 10%) + (10% x -10%)
Expected Return = 8% + 5% – 1%
Expected Return = 12%
What Is Rate of Return?
The expected rate of return mentioned above looks at an investment’s potential profit and loss. In contrast, the rate of return looks at the past performance of an asset.
A rate of return is the percentage change in value of an investment from its initial cost. When calculating the rate of return, you look at the net gain or loss in an investment over a particular time period. The simple rate of return is also known as the return on investment (ROI).
Recommended: What Is the Average Stock Market Return?
How to Calculate Rate of Return
The formula to calculate the rate of return is:
Rate of return = [(Current value − Initial value) ÷ Initial Value ] × 100
Let’s say you own a share that started at $100 in value and rose to $110 in value. Now, you want to find its rate of return.
In our example, the calculation would be [($110 – $100) ÷ $100] x 100 = 10
A rate of return is typically expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost. So, if you were to sell your share, this investment would have a 10% rate of return.
Recommended: What Is Considered a Good Return on Investment?
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Different Ways to Calculate Expected Rate of Return
How to Calculate Expected Return Using Historical Data
To calculate the expected return of a single investment using historical data, you’ll want to take an average rate of returns in certain years to determine the probability of those returns. Here’s an example of what that would look like:
Annual Returns of a Share of Company XYZ
Year
Return
2011
16%
2012
22%
2013
1%
2014
-4%
2015
8%
2016
-11%
2017
31%
2018
7%
2019
13%
2020
22%
For Company XYZ, the stock generated a 21% average rate of return in five of the ten years (2011, 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2020), a 5% average return in three of the years (2013, 2015, 2018), and a -8% average return in two of the years (2014 and 2016).
Using this data, you may assume there is a 50% probability that the stock will have a 21% rate of return, a 30% probability of a 5% return, and a 20% probability of a -8% return.
The expected return on a share of Company XYZ would then be calculated as follows:
Expected return = (50% x 21%) + (30% x 5%) + (20% x -8%)
Expected return = 10% + 2% – 2%
Expected return = 10%
Based on the historical data, the expected rate of return for this investment would be 10%.
However, when using historical data to determine expected returns, you may want to consider if you are using all of the data available or only data from a select period. The sample size of the historical data could skew the results of the expected rate of return on the investment.
💡 Quick Tip: The best stock trading app? That’s a personal preference, of course. Generally speaking, though, a great app is one with an intuitive interface and powerful features to help make trades quickly and easily.
How to Calculate Expected Return Based on Probable Returns
When using probable rates of return, you’ll need the data point of the expected probability of an outcome in a given scenario. This probability can be calculated, or you can make assumptions for the probability of a return. Remember, the probability column must add up to 100%. Here’s an example of how this would look.
Expected Rate of Return for a Stock of Company ABC
Scenario
Return
Probability
Outcome (Return * Probability)
1
14%
30%
4.2%
2
2%
10%
0.2%
3
22%
30%
6.6%
4
-18%
10%
-1.8%
5
-21%
10%
-2.1%
Total
100%
7.1%
Using the expected return formula above, in this hypothetical example, the expected rate of return is 7.1%.
Calculate Expected Rate of Return on a Stock in Excel
Follow these steps to calculate a stock’s expected rate of return in Excel (or another spreadsheet software):
1. In the first row, enter column labels:
• A1: Investment
• B1: Gain A
• C1: Probability of Gain A
• D1: Gain B
• E1: Probability of Gain B
• F1: Expected Rate of Return
2. In the second row, enter your investment name in B2, followed by its potential gains and the probability of each gain in columns C2 – E2
• Note that the probabilities in C2 and E2 must add up to 100%
3. In F2, enter the formula = (B2*C2)+(D2*E2)
4. Press enter, and your expected rate of return should now be in F2
If you’re working with more than two probabilities, extend your columns to include Gain C, Probability of Gain C, Gain D, Probability of Gain D, etc.
If there’s a possibility for loss, that would be negative gain, represented as a negative number in cells B2 or D2.
Limitations of the Expected Rate of Return Formula
Historical data can be a good place to start in understanding how an investment behaves. That said, investors may want to be leery of extrapolating past returns for the future. Historical data is a guide; it’s not necessarily predictive.
Another limitation to the expected returns formula is that it does not consider the risk involved by investing in a particular stock or other asset class. The risk involved in an investment is not represented by its expected rate of return.
In this historical return example above, 10% is the expected rate of return. What that number doesn’t reveal is the risk taken in order to achieve that rate of return. The investment experienced negative returns in the years 2014 and 2016. The variability of returns is often called volatility.
Standard Deviation
To understand the volatility of an investment, you may consider looking at its standard deviation. Standard deviation measures volatility by calculating a dataset’s dispersion (values’ range) relative to its mean. The larger the standard deviation, the larger the range of returns.
Consider two different investments: Investment A has an average annual return of 10%, and Investment B has an average annual return of 6%. But when you look at the year-by-year performance, you’ll notice that Investment A experienced significantly more volatility. There are years when returns are much higher and lower than with Investment B.
Year
Annual Return of Investment A
Annual Return of Investment B
2011
16%
8%
2012
22%
4%
2013
1%
3%
2014
-6%
0%
2015
8%
6%
2016
-11%
-2%
2017
31%
9%
2018
7%
5%
2019
13%
15%
2020
22%
14%
Average Annual Return
10%
6%
Standard Deviation
13%
5%
Investment A has a standard deviation of 13%, while Investment B has a standard deviation of 5%. Although Investment A has a higher rate of return, there is more risk. Investment B has a lower rate of return, but there is less risk. Investment B is not nearly as volatile as Investment A.
Recommended: A Guide to Historical Volatility
Systematic and Unsystematic Risk
All investments are subject to pressures in the market. These pressures, or sources of risk, can come from systematic and unsystematic risks. Systematic risk affects an entire investment type. Investors may struggle to reduce the risk through diversification within that asset class.
Because of systematic risk, you may consider building an investment strategy that includes different asset types. For example, a sweeping stock market crash could affect all or most stocks and is, therefore, a systematic risk. However, if your portfolio includes different types of bonds, commodities, and real estate, you may limit the impact of the equities crash.
In the stock market, unsystematic risk is specific to one company, country, or industry. For example, technology companies will face different risks than healthcare and energy companies. This type of risk can be mitigated with portfolio diversification, the process of purchasing different types of investments.
Expected Rate of Return vs Required Rate of Return
Expected return is just one financial metric that investors can use to make investment decisions. Similarly, investors may use the required rate of return (RRR) to determine the amount of money an investment needs to generate to be worth it for the investor. The required rate of return incorporates the risk of an investment.
What Is the Dividend Discount Model?
Investors may use the dividend discount model to determine an investment’s required rate of return. The dividend discount model can be used for stocks with high dividends and steady growth. Investors use a stock’s price, dividend payment per share, and projected dividend growth rate to calculate the required rate of return.
The formula for the required rate of return using the dividend discount model is:
So, if you have a stock paying $2 in dividends per year and is worth $20 and the dividends are growing at 5% a year, you have a required rate of return of:
RRR = ($2 / $20) + 0.5
RRR = .10 + .05
RRR = .15, or 15%
What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?
The other way of calculating the required rate of return is using a more complex model known as the capital asset pricing model.
In this model, the required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return, plus what’s known as beta (the stock’s volatility compared to the market), which is then multiplied by the market rate of return minus the risk-free rate. For the risk-free rate, investors usually use the yield of a short-term U.S. Treasury.
The formula is:
RRR = Risk-free rate of return + Beta x (Market rate of return – Risk-free rate of return)
For example, let’s say an investment has a beta of 1.5, the market rate of return is 5%, and a risk-free rate of 1%. Using the formula, the required rate of return would be:
RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.05 – .01)
RRR = .01 + 1.5 x (.04)
RRR = .01 + .06
RRR = .07, or 7%
The Takeaway
There’s no way to predict the future performance of an investment or portfolio. However, by looking at historical data and using the expected rate of return formula, investors can get a better sense of an investment’s potential profit or loss.
There’s no guarantee that the actual performance of a stock, fund, or other assets will match the expected return. Nor does expected return consider the risk and volatility of assets. It’s just one factor an investor should consider when deciding on investments and building a portfolio.
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FAQ
How do you find the expected rate of return?
An investment’s expected rate of return is the average rate of return that an investor can expect to receive over the life of the investment. Investors can calculate the expected return by multiplying the potential return of an investment by the chances of it occurring and then totaling the results.
How do you calculate the expected rate of return on a portfolio?
The expected rate of return on a portfolio is the weighted average of the expected rates of return on the individual assets in the portfolio. You first need to calculate the expected return for each investment in a portfolio, then weigh those returns by how much each investment makes up in the portfolio.
What is a good rate of return?
A good rate of return varies from person to person. Some investors may be satisfied with a lower rate of return if its performance is consistent, while others may be more aggressive and aim for a higher rate of return even if it is more volatile. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to decide what is considered a good rate of return.
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Victor Ciardelli beamed as his mortgage company, Chicago-based Guaranteed Rate, launched a “financial wellness” and “personal well-being” app last fall before a live audience in Times Square with wellness celebrity Deepak Chopra.
“Something we are passionate about at Guaranteed Rate is caring about people and their overall well-being,” Ciardelli said in a video of the event posted online. “We wanted to make sure that we did something to help people in their general stress and alleviate pain.”
But in the days following the launch of the app, which offers home loan applications and other financial services alongside yoga classes and nutrition advice, Ciardelli wasn’t happy. Yelling at executive leadership on company calls, he referred to his employees as “failures,” complained that the team did not show him from a particular camera angle and said “Marketing is a f−−−ing disaster,” according to two executives who were on the calls.
Despite Ciardelli’s public remarks on the importance of personal well-being, many former employees told the Tribune they experienced or witnessed persistent verbal abuse and a misogynistic environment while working at Guaranteed Rate. As part of a Tribune investigation, reporters interviewed nearly 80 former employees and reviewed court records, internal company emails, written exit interviews and text messages.
Many of the former staff members who spoke with the Tribune described Ciardelli, the company’s president, CEO and founder, as a boss who was quick to berate, swear at and demean employees.
“Every person that works directly under Mr. Ciardelli is terrified of his potential anger outbursts,” one former assistant wrote to human resources after she was let go from the company a couple of years ago, according to an email reviewed by the Tribune.
Some former employees who spoke with the Tribune said they were driven to seek mental health care because of the work environment at the company; one former worker said she contacted a suicide hotline last year.
Multiple women who used to work at Guaranteed Rate, meanwhile, described working in a sexualized atmosphere where some male loan officers and managers made sexually explicit remarks to female employees, hit on them in the office or at work events, and commented inappropriately on their appearance — even, in one case, encouraging a woman to use her looks to help close a loan.
In February, a woman who used to work as a loan officer at Guaranteed Rate filed a lawsuit against two high-producing loan officers at the company, alleging sexual harassment and gender discrimination. Her complaint alleges one of the male loan officers sexually harassed her at a corporate event, that the other loan officer pressured her not to report the incident to human resources, and that for the remainder of her employment the man who made the remark used “gender-based and demeaning slurs to refer to” her and other women at the company.
Other former employees said they did not bring their complaints to human resources because they thought Ciardelli or other executives and managers meddled in the department’s business and might retaliate, with at least two former employees saying they’d observed how company leaders protected certain staff members. Others said they did complain but felt the department didn’t take the information seriously.
In response to a detailed list of questions from the Tribune, Ciardelli and Guaranteed Rate vehemently denied all of these allegations, describing the company as a positive workplace environment where women in particular are supported. The firm went to remarkable lengths to dispute the allegations, including sending the results of a worker satisfaction survey it conducted and forwarding more than 80 testimonials from current and former employees. Among them were five of Ciardelli’s current or former assistants, as well as numerous male and female executives praising his leadership and support.
The company also retained an outside law firm that, even before receiving the reporters’ list of questions, threatened to sue the newspaper for defamation.
Guaranteed Rate, whose corporate headquarters is in Chicago’s North Center neighborhood, has grown tremendously since its founding in 2000 to become one of the largest mortgage lenders in the country based on loan volume, according to industry news and data provider Inside Mortgage Finance. Its name has adorned the White Sox stadium since 2016, and as recently as 2018, Guaranteed Rate was named a Chicago Tribune Top Workplace — a distinction based on surveys conducted by an outside company, with no input from editorial staff on the selection.
Guaranteed Rate CEO Victor Ciardelli prepares to throw out the ceremonial first pitch at a White Sox home game in August 2016. The ballpark would be renamed after his company later that year. (Chris Sweda/Chicago Tribune)
Jason Scott, a former top-producing loan officer and director of VA lending, which provides home loans to military veterans and active-duty service members, at Guaranteed Rate said his earlier years at the company — when lower mortgage rates fueled industry growth — were positive. But Ciardelli’s outbursts and verbal abuse of employees grew more noticeable, he said, when rising interest rates started to erode those gains, especially after the boom years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I think crazy success just brings out who the real people are,” said Scott, who reported to Ciardelli in his director role and now works for CrossCountry Mortgage, a competitor of Guaranteed Rate. “What did you sacrifice to get there? Did you sacrifice your soul or your core values?”
Many other former employees who spoke with the Tribune did so on the condition they would not be named in this story, saying they feared Guaranteed Rate would sue them. Guaranteed Rate has filed lawsuits against former employees to claw back signing bonuses; it also has sued competitor New American Funding and former employees who have hired former Guaranteed Rate workers, accusing them of unlawful poaching.
Ciardelli declined to be interviewed without his attorney for this story. In response to written questions provided by the Tribune, he and the company suggested the criticism of Guaranteed Rate came from disgruntled employees who could not succeed in a demanding work environment within a challenging industry, or from people who now work for a competitor and therefore would benefit from disparaging the company.
“We hold ourselves and our team members to an incredibly high standard and are not apologetic about that,” Ciardelli said in his written responses, sent through the outside law firm retained to handle communications with the Tribune. “We also recognize … that to achieve great success, one must embrace a full ownership for their actions, both successful and otherwise to achieve growth and most important optimally serve our customers. We promote a transparent culture that supports all our team members toward that goal and welcome constructive criticism. As a result, we are not for everyone.”
Ciardelli specifically denied berating staff, yelling at executives after the app launch or ever calling employees “stupid” or “failures.” He quoted the company’s chief operating officer, Nik Athanasiou, as saying: “I have worked with Victor for 15 years. No one is in more meetings with him than me. I do not ever recall an instance where Victor was abusive toward another employee.”
Ciardelli also pointed to the company’s anti-discrimination and anti-harassment policies and said neither he nor any other executive interfered with human resources.
In response to questions from the Tribune about women’s complaints, including being subjected to sexually explicit comments and working in a “boys club” atmosphere, Ciardelli wrote that such allegations are “simply not true.” The company “has not, does not, and would not objectify women or put them in uncomfortable personal or professional situations,” he wrote.
Ciardelli also highlighted the large number of female loan officers working at the company, their professional success and the testimonials from female employees. When the Tribune asked to speak with four of those women, only one — Rola Gurrieri, the company’s New Jersey-based chief fulfillment officer — agreed to be interviewed without outside counsel or management present.
Regarding the lawsuit filed by former Guaranteed Rate loan officer Megan McDermott, the company told the Tribune it had “found no evidence supporting Ms. McDermott’s allegations of sexual harassment or gender discrimination” after conducting a “comprehensive investigation.”
Guaranteed Rate also sent a general statement detailing the company’s business philosophy, which includes a “fierce commitment to excellence.” Employees who do not “meet our core values or our quality standards” find it challenging to maintain job satisfaction at the company, it said.
“Many of these employees walk away not feeling good about the company which is a natural emotion when faced with a reality that their standards and the company standards are not aligned,” the statement said.
But many of the former employees who spoke with the Tribune described a cutthroat work culture they said could be frightening and upsetting, with several attributing that culture to Ciardelli’s laser focus on making money and growing Guaranteed Rate.
A sign is installed at the White Sox stadium in October 2016 to proclaim its new name: Guaranteed Rate Field. (Zbigniew Bzdak/Chicago Tribune)
The former assistant who emailed human resources asked not to be identified in this story, fearing it might jeopardize her current job or trigger retaliation from Ciardelli. In that email, the woman wrote that she was “constantly on edge and terrified to have an interaction with Mr. Ciardelli” and that she had “consoled each assistant on his team that endured the wrath of Mr. Ciardelli’s behavior.”
“I hope that my experience will open your eyes,” she wrote.
Flying too close to the sun
In an interview with the Tribune in 2014, Ciardelli made plain his ambition to grow the company.
“If you can’t handle it, you shouldn’t be here,” Ciardelli said. “Instead of feeling like, oh, we care about people’s feelings and all that, it’s all about results.”
In the same article, Ciardelli said he worked constructively with his employees when issues arose at work. “There’s no drama involved; there’s no yelling,” he said. “Let’s fix the issue and move on.”
But multiple former executives and employees told the Tribune Ciardelli regularly yelled at and verbally attacked executives and other employees in person and on company calls, sometimes in front of hundreds of people, with the calls following the app launch just one example.
Some former and current employees told the Tribune they tried to avoid Ciardelli because they were scared of his temper.
Scott, the former director of VA lending who worked at Guaranteed Rate from 2017 until he resigned in 2022, splitting his time between offices in Hawaii and Colorado, called Ciardelli a “bully.”
Scott told the Tribune that, during one call, Ciardelli took an executive “to the woodshed and just eviscerated him verbally,” saying things such as “I can’t believe you are this stupid.”
“(Victor) throws the grenade and then he leaves the room,” not giving people a chance to explain or talk through the issue, Scott said.
At the time of Ciardelli’s 2014 Tribune interview, Guaranteed Rate had 2,500 employees nationally, 1,050 of whom were based in Chicago, according to Tribune archives.
The company grew to employ 9,708 people nationwide at its peak in 2021, Guaranteed Rate told the Tribune in May. Part of the company’s growth stemmed from its acquisitions of other mortgage companies: Manhattan Mortgage and Superior Mortgage in 2012 and Stearns Lending in 2021.
Victor Ciardelli, shown in 2014 at Guaranteed Rate’s headquarters, told the Tribune that year that he had ambitious plans for the company and “if you can’t handle it, you shouldn’t be here.” (Abel Uribe/Chicago Tribune)
Guaranteed Rate also partners on mortgage services with some of the largest real estate companies in the country. Including the people working in those partnerships, Guaranteed Rate had 14,264 employees at its height in 2021.
Like other mortgage companies, Guaranteed Rate has suffered a significant decline in business over the last two years, stemming from mortgage rates that have more than doubled from their record lows during the pandemic.
As mortgage rates soared in 2022 and 2023, the firm implemented thousands of layoffs, with only 3,871 workers remaining as of April, or 5,756 among all its companies, excluding contractors, as of May, according to the company.
Yet Ciardelli’s volatile behavior predated the stressful times in the housing market, according to some people who worked for Guaranteed Rate. Many people who “fly too close to the sun” — a metaphor some employees used to describe working directly with Ciardelli — eventually leave, they said.
People who work in personal and executive assistant roles for Ciardelli rarely last long in their jobs, with many leaving after less than a year, former employees said. Some referred to Ciardelli’s assistant position as a “revolving door,” and the LinkedIn profiles of multiple former assistants show short stints with the company.
More than two dozen executives and senior loan officers have left the company over the last decade, with a significant exodus occurring in the past two years. Multiple former executives and loan officers — including Scott — told the Tribune they left because of Ciardelli’s verbal outbursts and what many described as a workplace where they felt bullying and misogyny were tolerated. Most now work for competitors.
Ciardelli and other executives sometimes would disparage people who left the company, according to Scott.
“I would be like ‘Guys, did anybody ever think about reaching out to them before they left and having an exit interview with them?’” Scott said. “You are talking about a person that was a top producer here that you loved them as long as they produced, and now that they leave, they are an enemy? … They are leaving for a reason.”
In Ciardelli’s written responses to Tribune questions, he said allegations of a toxic work environment or bullying on his part are “not aligned with Guaranteed Rate or my leadership.” He said neither he nor other executives have disparaged former employees when they left the company.
In response to a question about assistant turnover, Ciardelli wrote that he has worked closely with five “primary” assistants since 2000. “As is the case with any demanding support roles, there has been some turnover with secondary and tertiary assistants, but nothing that is abnormal or unexpected,” he wrote.
One testimonial sent to the Tribune was from Melissa Czaszwicz, who said she worked for Ciardelli as an executive assistant in the early 2000s. She wrote that she had a positive experience working closely with Ciardelli, who she said was especially supportive when she had children.
“Never did I witness anything inappropriate or out of line,” said Czaszwicz, who still works at Guaranteed Rate.
‘Mental health has suffered’
Some former employees who spoke with the Tribune said they were driven to seek mental health support during and after their time at the company because of the negative work environment they experienced at Guaranteed Rate.
Most of those who shared their experiences worked for an executive who has a close working relationship with Ciardelli. Former workers said this executive also verbally abused staff and was prone to volatile mood swings.
One told the Tribune she texted and called a suicide hotline last year while working at the company because of verbal abuse from the executive; she shared the texts she sent with the Tribune.
In her resignation email, sent to the executive and to the human resources department last year, she wrote: “My mental health has rapidly declined due to the way I have been treated and spoken to in the last couple of months.”
Another employee from the same team wrote in a 2019 resignation letter sent to the executive, human resources, Ciardelli and others that his “mental health has suffered.”
Founded in 2000, Guaranteed Rate grew to become one of the largest mortgage lenders in the country but has suffered a decline in business as mortgage rates have soared in the last two years. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
In the resignation email and in an interview with the Tribune, the former employee said his boss gave him the runaround when he asked for time off to attend his mother’s chemotherapy appointments and complained to other employees about his requests.
Other employees discouraged him from requesting leave directly from human resources, warning him he would be fired if he went around the executive, according to the email.
Alyssa Ortiz, another former employee, said working with this executive was like being in an “abusive” relationship, being yelled at one minute and being invited for drinks the next.
“Everyone has gotten … chewed out and left crying,” said Ortiz, who worked for Guaranteed Rate from 2017 to 2019.
Ortiz told the Tribune that human resources and Ciardelli had been notified of this executive’s verbal mistreatment of employees but did nothing. She and about a dozen other former employees told the Tribune they felt Ciardelli protected this executive because of their working relationship.
In a written exit interview from 2020, one employee from the same department described how the executive would discuss former employees’ exit interviews with current employees.
“This created a fear for us to go to HR for anything moving forward,” the employee wrote.
Ciardelli said the company was not aware of any incident in which an executive read former employees’ exit interviews aloud; he said Guaranteed Rate “would never support this practice.”
Dozens of employees have left the executive’s department since 2017, according to interviews with former workers and LinkedIn profiles. The executive has since been promoted, the executive’s LinkedIn profile and the company’s website show.
In 2018, the head of human resources at the time took away the HR representative working with the executive’s department because of “risks” the executive posed to the company, according to an email reviewed by the Tribune.
“I can’t in good conscience keep allowing (the executive) to drag other employee (sic) into … schemes,” the former HR head wrote. “And by schemes I mean risky bull−−−−.” The department would have no assigned human resources representative after that, according to the email.
In correspondence with the Tribune, Guaranteed Rate described the company as a positive workplace where abuse and harassment are not tolerated and where complaints to human resources are taken seriously.
“We are not perfect by any means, but we do work hard to listen to our employees and make sure they feel supported,” a company spokesperson wrote in an email to the Tribune in April. “Most of all, we have no tolerance for any form of bullying, harassment or mistreatment. It is not who we are or who we want to be.”
Some of the employee testimonials provided by Guaranteed Rate expressed similar sentiments. For example, Mohamed Tawy, a branch manager and senior loan officer who has been with Guaranteed Rate for three years, wrote that the culture at the company is the best he has experienced in his 15-year career.
In an interview with the Tribune, Tawy said: “As a top producer … and I’m also a minority myself, I haven’t felt anything or seen anything that makes this company in any way negative for anybody that’s different. … I’ve seen here all that matters is that you do a good job, your production is good and that you follow the protocols and the rules, and I’ve seen people succeed with that more than any company I’ve been with.”
The Guaranteed Rate spokesperson also shared the results of an employee experience survey conducted in February. According to the company, the average rating for the culture at Guaranteed Rate was 8.49 out of 10, with nearly 75% of 3,745 employees responding. Those ratings were based on employees’ stated level of comfort providing feedback and/or concerns, how much they felt supported by the company in maintaining a healthy work-life balance and their sense of Guaranteed Rate’s commitment to promoting diversity and inclusion.
The email from the spokesperson said the company received “a countless number of positive comments and appreciation for their leaders, teams and our overall culture.”
In response to Tribune questions, Guaranteed Rate said in May that the survey was anonymous and it was analyzed by its “employee experience team.” The company did not provide the Tribune with a complete set of responses from the survey, but it volunteered that employees used the word “toxic” to make a negative comment about Guaranteed Rate in only 14 of the more than 5,000 written responses provided to three open-ended survey questions.
‘Mortified and disgusted’
Megan McDermott, a single mother of three, met her supervisor at Guaranteed Rate, Jon Lamkin, in person for the first time at a corporate event in December 2015, according to the lawsuit she filed in February.
When Lamkin heard the age of her oldest child, the suit alleges, he said: “You should have known better than to let some guy’s d−−− c−−− inside you.”
According to her lawsuit, McDermott reported the comment to Joseph Moschella, a regional manager and senior loan officer at Guaranteed Rate who was responsible for McDermott’s region while she worked at the company. Moschella, the suit alleges, “pressured” her not to make a formal complaint of sexual harassment to human resources.
McDermott told the Tribune she was “mortified and disgusted” after Lamkin made the comment.
“The irony here is that Jon should have known better than to treat an employee the way he did rather than telling me I should have known better to become a single mother at 20 years old,” McDermott said, “which is vile. … He set the tone the first day I met him of the power Joe and Jon had over my career.”
Megan McDermott, shown in March in New Jersey, has filed a lawsuit alleging she was “subjected to a sexual and gender-based hostile work environment” at Guaranteed Rate and did not receive the same opportunities, treatment and pay as male loan officers. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
As McDermott went on to become a top-producing loan officer for Guaranteed Rate in New Jersey, her suit alleges Lamkin subjected her to abuse by “regularly screaming at her and using gender-based and demeaning slurs to refer to” her and other women at the company.
Her lawsuit alleges she was “subjected to a sexual and gender-based hostile work environment” by Guaranteed Rate, Lamkin and Moschella. Her suit also alleges McDermott did not receive the same opportunities, treatment and pay as male loan officers, which some other female loan officers told the Tribune reflected their own experiences as well.
McDermott did not lodge a complaint after Lamkin’s comment because she “believed she would be retaliated against” if she did so, the suit states. When she did report to HR around 2019 that Lamkin had engaged in “abusive behavior,” the department “failed to do anything to investigate or curtail Defendant Lamkin’s behavior,” the complaint alleges.
“Joe encouraged me not to go to HR because of the damage it would do to Jon’s career,” McDermott said. “Ultimately, all that they were worried about was Jon, his reputation and his career versus reporting inappropriate behavior.”
Guaranteed Rate told the Tribune in its May response that Lamkin’s comment was “nothing more than a single off-color joke,” that McDermott accepted an apology from Lamkin and that Moschella “encouraged” McDermott to contact human resources if she was “still upset.”
The company said it “could not find any record of Ms. McDermott making any form of complaint to the company’s human resources department in 2019, either verbally or in writing.”
McDermott told the Tribune she helped build Guaranteed Rate’s business in north Jersey from the ground up and said she loved the work until she found out she was not being treated equally as a woman.
“I believe management did not want to see me succeed, didn’t take me seriously and made decisions that negatively affected me and my children financially,” said McDermott, who now works for CrossCountry Mortgage, a competitor. “I ultimately left GR because I could no longer work in an environment where I was not valued and leadership felt that they could exploit me.”
Moschella and Lamkin are still employed at Guaranteed Rate. They did not respond to a Tribune request for comment. Guaranteed Rate told the Tribune in May that it had investigated McDermott’s allegations of sexual harassment and gender discrimination and found that “there is no evidence that Mr. Lamkin or anyone else at Guaranteed Rate ever created a hostile work environment for women.”
Guaranteed Rate also said in a statement that it complies with state and federal equal pay laws. The company said an “outside law firm” had reviewed its 2023 pay data and found it compliant with state equal pay laws.
In his written responses, Ciardelli highlighted the high percentage of female loan officers at the company in comparison to its competitors and said “our women originators thrive more than at any mortgage company in the industry.”
Employee statements provided through Guaranteed Rate’s attorneys included testimonials from dozens of women. Some noted the existence of the company’s employee resource group for women, GROW, while others cited the presence of women in leadership roles throughout the company.
“In addition to my professional growth I’ve experienced, I am equally grateful for the respect and dignity with which I have been treated as a woman in the workplace,” Jaime Kinman, a senior loan officer, said in her statement. “In an industry where gender biases still exist, I have never once felt marginalized or overlooked because of my gender.”
Gurrieri, the company’s chief fulfillment officer, said in an interview with the Tribune that she “never one time” experienced misogyny at the company.
“I got promoted when I’m six months pregnant,” she said. “That’s unheard of.”
Gurrieri, who has worked for Guaranteed Rate for more than six years, described Ciardelli’s leadership style as “extremely passionate.”
“There’s never been a day where I ever felt disrespected or not appreciated,” she said.
According to a former top executive who reported to Ciardelli for many years and a former human resources employee, a handful of loan officers at Guaranteed Rate were known sexual harassers, making women feel uncomfortable with inappropriate touching and unwanted advances in work settings.
But that behavior was rarely addressed, the former workers believed, because the men were friends with Ciardelli or were high-producing loan officers — each responsible for bringing in tens of millions of dollars in loan volume. Some of these loan officers still work at Guaranteed Rate.
Ciardelli called these allegations “simply not true” and said they were contradicted by the employee testimonials provided through the company’s attorney.
“They are also inconsistent with the recollections and experiences of multiple former HR professionals,” Ciardelli wrote.
A ‘sex-driven’ culture
In interviews with the Tribune, multiple former employees described a “boys club” atmosphere at Guaranteed Rate; Scott, the former director of VA lending, said there was “a lot of misogyny.”
Jessica Moreno, a former Chicago employee who started at Guaranteed Rate at age 23, said she was the first in her family to get a corporate job. Within a year of starting her job, she said, she was paying the mortgage on her family home.
But in her department, Moreno said she experienced a “sex-driven” culture.
“All the guys were just like, tongues on the floor,” said Moreno, who worked for the company for about four years starting in 2014. Her workplace was “like a men’s locker room, and women were in it,” she said.
Jessica Moreno, shown in April in Arizona, worked for Guaranteed Rate for about four years starting in 2014. She said male co-workers and managers hit on her and made comments on her appearance. It was “like a men’s locker room, and women were in it,” she said. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
Male co-workers and managers would hit on her and make comments on her appearance, calling her pretty, Moreno said. Comments made at Christmas parties or happy hours could be crasser, she said.
“You’ll get, ‘Oh, I’ve always wanted to f−−− you,’” she said.
Moreno said she once overheard a male manager describe a woman who had interviewed for a job as a “fox.” Another time, she said, a manager invited a female massage therapist to the office; Moreno remembers male co-workers commenting on the therapist’s body, too.
Soon after she’d started at Guaranteed Rate, Moreno said, she met with HR to make a complaint about a manager who swore at and belittled her. The HR representative brushed off her concerns in that meeting, she said.
“After that, I felt so discouraged to never even speak up again,” Moreno said.
Moreno ended up leaving her position before taking a job working for a Guaranteed Rate loan officer; she said she was terminated after clashing with the loan officer’s assistant.
Some female former employees of Guaranteed Rate said they understood looks to be a currency within the company.
One former Chicago employee said a manager encouraged her to text a selfie to a client after hearing the client flirt with her over the phone and say he’d be inclined to speed up the loan process if he knew what she looked like.
The employee said she sent the selfie, and the manager then pushed her to go along with the client’s harassment until the loan closed, she said.
After receiving the photo, the client responded, “As pretty as you are I can’t believe some man hasn’t run off with you just howling away,” in a text reviewed by the Tribune. Later on, after sending her forms, the client texted her: “You said I would get another pic when I sent you the forms so?”
The employee said another manager in her division would frequently flirt with her and comment on her appearance. He once texted her to “stop losing weight damn it” and another time texted her that she “broke (his) concentration,” according to texts reviewed by the Tribune.
Another former Chicago employee remembered a manager telling her, while she was pregnant with her first child, “Whatever you do, don’t get a C-section — you’ll never wear a bikini again.” The employee went out on maternity leave days later. She said she did end up needing a C-section and remembers the manager’s comment echoing in her head as she was wheeled back for surgery. Two people the woman told about the incident at the time corroborated her account in interviews with the Tribune.
Several former employees in the marketing department, including two men, told the Tribune Ciardelli made comments about workers’ ages. One employee got Botox and fillers after Ciardelli told employees they were “too old” and likened the marketing department to his “grandmother’s mortgage company,” according to former marketing department employees.
In his written responses, Ciardelli said “Guaranteed Rate is committed to fostering an environment that promotes diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility. We maintain a comprehensive set of employment policies aimed at providing a work environment free of unlawful harassment and discrimination, where all employees treat one another with dignity and respect.”
Guaranteed Rate’s corporate headquarters is in Chicago’s North Center neighborhood in a building with a rooftop gathering space. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
A spokesperson said in the April 1 email sharing the employee survey results that the company had launched “even more initiatives to ensure we have a positive work environment,” including anti-harassment training, training for the human resources team “to take proper and appropriate steps and best practices for investigating and responding to employee complaints” and reminders to employees on how to report harassment or abuse.
“Our executive team has emphasized to Human Resources that all complaints should be investigated, and any form of harassment and misconduct should be dealt with swiftly – and all managers and employees who are not acting in accordance with our values be rooted out of our organization,” the spokesperson wrote.
In the company’s May responses, it said these initiatives were launched in 2023 and were to “expand and enhance” the existing training program.
All Guaranteed Rate employees must complete “harassment and discrimination prevention training” upon being hired and on an annual basis thereafter, according to the company’s May response. The company said Guaranteed Rate has an “anti-retaliation” policy that prohibits retaliation against employees who report alleged harassment or discrimination or participate in an investigation into the conduct. The company also noted it has an ethics hotline through which employees can make anonymous complaints.
“We respect and treat all employees equally no matter their sex, color, or creed,” Ciardelli wrote.
In the last 10 years, Guaranteed Rate has not settled any lawsuits involving claims of a hostile work environment, according to the company. Guaranteed Rate’s response stated that within that time frame, the company settled six claims involving allegations of a hostile work environment, including arbitration cases as well as claims filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and state and local agencies. The majority of those claims were brought by male employees, and one was resolved in Guaranteed Rate’s favor, the company said.
Guaranteed Rate employees are asked to sign mandatory arbitration agreements when they are hired, but sexual harassment claims and claims filed with the EEOC and similar state agencies are not subject to arbitration, according to Guaranteed Rate’s May responses.
‘Positive thinking’
Publicly, Ciardelli presents himself as a champion of a positive work environment — an image the company has encouraged employees to promote.
In an email sent in February by a company executive and obtained by the Tribune, employees were encouraged to share a Forbes article featuring Ciardelli; the email provided step-by-step instructions for posting it on social media.
The story, published Feb. 7, was titled “Guaranteed Rate Founder Is All In On ‘Positive Thinking’ This 2024” and described his leadership style as “Chicken Soup for the Mortgage Industry.”
“I communicate the power of positivity and gratitude to everybody around me: employees, friends, family members, everyone,” Ciardelli was quoted as saying.
Less than 24 hours after it went live, the article disappeared from the Forbes website. The site provided no explanation, but one former Guaranteed Rate employee told the Tribune former workers had written to the author about factual inaccuracies.
On Feb. 8, a Guaranteed Rate executive sent another email encouraging employees — again with step-by-step instructions — to delete any social media posts linking to the article.
“We are working with Forbes to resolve and will let you know when it will be reinstated,” the email said. “We apologize for the inconvenience, and we will send out a new link as soon as it’s available.”
The Forbes contributor declined to comment for this story. Forbes told the Tribune the article was taken down because it did not adhere to the company’s “editorial guidelines” and did not respond to further questions.
The article has yet to be republished, but Guaranteed Rate still wants people to read it. The company shared it in a PDF on its LinkedIn page.