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Mortgage industry analysts have been watching and waiting to see what the Federal Reserve will do—or say—next about rate cuts. They’re hedging their bets that the Fed will cut rates this year and, as an indirect result, mortgage rates will fall, too, and help revive the housing market.
Watch for coverage of today’s Fed meeting in RISMedia’s Daily News tomorrow.
Economic data plays a key role in the Fed’s timing, though. A key performance metric Fed officials and economists watch is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which measures core inflation.
PCE inflation (excluding food and energy costs) rose 0.2% in December from November’s 0.1%, and increased 2.9% from a year ago, according to data released Friday from the U.S. Commerce Department.
The annual rate of core inflation in December fell from 3.2%. That’s the lowest annual rate in nearly three years. Additionally, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a pace of 3.3% in the fourth quarter, surpassing market expectations.
These strong economic readings pushed the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to track, up to 4.14% on Friday before flattening later in the day.
Fed officials have hinted in recent speeches that cooling inflation supports the case for rate cuts—but at a more measured pace than before.
As for how those cuts will drive mortgage rates, expect “slow and steady declines,” likely in the latter half of the year, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist with First American Financial.
“The Fed wants to see the long and variable lags of monetary policy so they can make their way through the economy before deciding on any rate cuts,” Kushi told RISMedia, noting that anything can happen between now and the end of the year to change the Fed’s stance. “I think that the Fed has emphasized that the path to rate cuts is highly uncertain, and they’re going to take a sort of data-driven, cautious approach.”
Fed officials’ comments temper rate-cut expectations
Several Fed officials have signaled a more cautious approach to rate cuts, dimming investors’ hopes of quick action.
During a virtual speech to the Brookings Institution on Jan. 16, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he believes the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy is “set properly” to bring down core inflation closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. However, Waller isn’t in a rush to cut rates until inflation not only reaches the Fed target rate, but stays there for a prolonged period.
“When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully,” Waller said in his speech. “In many previous cycles, which began after shocks to the economy either threatened or caused a recession, the FOMC cut rates reactively and did so quickly and often by large amounts.
“This cycle, however, with economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 percent, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past.”
It didn’t take long for the markets to react to Waller’s comments. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped sharply after his speech by about 30 basis points since late December and is currently hovering near 4.1% after reaching a recent low at about 3.8%.
In separate remarks earlier this month, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who tends to be more hawkish, said a sustained march toward the 2% inflation goal will make it more likely to lower rates to prevent the Fed’s monetary policy from being too restrictive.
“In my view, we are not yet at that point. And important upside inflation risks remain,” Bowman said in her remarks, adding that she was still willing to raise the Fed funds rate in the future if inflation stalls or ticks up again. “Restoring price stability is essential for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.”
Mortgage industry looks to rate cuts to help spur loan activity
2023 was a painful year for housing. As mortgage rates soared near the 8% mark, existing-home sales cratered to their lowest level last year (4.09 million) since 1995 even as median home prices reached a record high of $389,800, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
Hobbled by anemic loan originations and next-to-no refinance activity, mortgage lenders aggressively cut staff last year (especially back-office positions like underwriters and loan processors). Others merged with bigger players with strong cash positions. And some lenders threw in the towel altogether, closing up shop.
“Our data shows that your typical independent mortgage banker trimmed their employee count by more than 40% from the peak in 2021 to the most recent data points,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in an interview with RISMedia.
Fratantoni said mortgage volume will be somewhat higher in 2024 in tandem with higher sales of new and existing homes. However, potential homebuyers—especially those with the headwind of having record-low mortgage rates—may be hesitant to make a move until rates hit a certain sweet spot.
“As we get to the low (6% range) at the end of this year and below 6% next year…that’s going to be enough to get people’s attention,” Fratantoni said.
Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, points to a Fed rate cut as being a positive signal to potential homebuyers of an improving market. However, Cohn added that a notable drop in mortgage rates will likely push home prices higher due to higher demand, so buyers shouldn’t stay on the sidelines too long.
Source: rismedia.com
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage loan rose to 6.69% from 6.60% a week prior, according to Freddie Mac on Thursday. Mortgage costs have retreated more than 110 basis points over the last three months since the peak of 7.79% in October.
That trend is boosting hopes for improved affordability as rates are poised to drop despite this week’s minor climb.
While rates are still hovering around mid-6% — significantly higher than the average in 2021 and 2022 — consumers are becoming increasingly active in the housing market. More buyers are applying for mortgages, signifying a belief that home prices will retreat along with mortgage rates.
“We do have home sales, and particularly existing home sales, [forecasted] to pick up around 4% this year,” Mark Palim, vice president and deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae, told Yahoo Finance. “We have a little bit higher of a pickup in 2025, by nearly 14%, because by then, the lower mortgage rates would have worked their way through the system.”
Read more: Mortgage rates below 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Homebuyers see a glimmer of hope
Homebuyers are trickling back into the housing market as the level of mortgage applications increased by 3.7% from a week prior, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) in its weekly survey ending Jan. 19.
The seasonally adjusted purchase index — measuring new home loans — jumped 8% week over week. However, the unadjusted purchase index remains 18% lower than the same week a year ago, and refinance activity is also 16% lower than the previous week.
“Conventional and FHA purchase applications drove most of the increase last week as some buyers moved to act early this season,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Refinance applications declined over the week and remained at low levels. There is still little incentive for homeowners to refinance with rates at these levels.”
Read more: Mortgage refinancing: How to get started
An upswing in buyers’ mortgage activity paralleled an increase in homebuyers’ confidence. Americans are feeling more optimistic about the housing market, according to the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) surveyed by Fannie Mae in December. The share of respondents believing now is a “good time” to buy a home increased three percentage points to 17% from 14% a month earlier.
Economists attributed the growing positivity to consumers’ belief that mortgage rates will fall — bringing home prices with them.
“Mortgage rate optimism increased dramatically this month, with a survey-high share of consumers anticipating mortgage rate declines over the next year,” Palim said. “A more optimistic rate outlook among consumers may signal an expectation that home affordability pressures will ease in 2024.”
Rates projected to drop below 6% by year-end
Economists at Fannie Mae predicted that slowing economic growth in 2024 will bring rates down to around 5.8% by the end of the year.
“Part of [the rate cut] is the slow growth that we see across this year, and part of it is the Fed easing,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae chief economist, told Yahoo Finance. “We do have [the expectation of] the Fed cutting rates four times this year.”
But the first cut may come later than expected. Consumer prices increased 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% annually in December. Overall price growth remained higher than the Fed’s targeted 2% even after last year’s rate hikes, suggesting that inflation is stickier than previously thought.
“With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2%, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve governor, said last week in a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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Source: finance.yahoo.com
Mortgage demand slumped last week as consumers hit the brakes on purchase applications.
Mortgage applications decreased by 7.2% in the week ending Jan. 26 compared to one week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association‘s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey.
“Applications decreased compared to a holiday-adjusted week, driven by a decline in purchase applications that offset a slight increase in refinance activity,”Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement. “Low existing housing supply is limiting options for prospective buyers and is keeping home-price growth elevated, resulting in a one-two punch that continues to constrain home purchase activity.”
The average loan size for purchase applications has risen in recent weeks to $444,100, the largest average loan size since May 2022, Kan added. On the strength of lower mortgage rates, homebuyers are reclaiming some purchasing power.
The MBA survey shows the average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) remained unchanged at 6.78% last week. Meanwhile, rates on jumbo loans (greater than $766,550) also remained unchanged at 6.94%.
The MBA data shows that purchase apps decreased by 11% from one week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, while refis picked up by 2% in the same period. Last week, refis comprised 34.2% of the total applications, up from 32.7% the previous week.
The Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) share of total applications decreased to 13.8% last week, down from 14.1% the week prior. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) share fell to 13.3%, down from 13.7% the week before. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) share remained unchanged at 0.4%.
The MBA survey, conducted weekly since 1990, covers more than 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Source: housingwire.com
Kim: Fannie Mae removed its explicit call for a recession in 2024 and now expects “below-trend growth.” At this point, how high is the risk for a recession?
Duncan: It was more of a marginal move from our perspective. There’s still a bunch of things that are highly correlated with recessions in the past that are still pointing in that direction.
There is an inverted yield curve, leading economic indicators have fallen for 21 months in a row, monetary aggregates are in decline and temporary work has turned down. There are seven or eight things that we watch that are still pointing that way, but the combination of all of them has not been enough to tip the market over. And with the Fed clearly making a shift in December, financial conditions eased significantly and that’s going to provide some support for them as well.
The market has gotten a little too enthusiastic in our view, so the change in our view on the Fed was only to change the number of cuts from three to four in 2024 with slow growth.
Kim: Compared to the beginning of January, more investors believe that an interest rate cut in May is more likely than a cut in March. Why do you think investors are throwing their hats in for a delayed rate cut by the Fed?
Duncan: I think that the markets were overenthusiastic, and a couple of Fed governors went on and walked it back, making statements along the lines of ‘let’s make sure we’re moving carefully.’ I think that was the primary thing.
Consumer spending numbers that came in at the end were quite strong, at least to the headline piece of that. On the flip side of that, consumer delinquencies for credit cards and auto loans are rising fairly quickly, which is a sign of stress in the consumer.
Kim: What is your expectation for the Fed’s timeline to cut benchmark rates?
Duncan: May, June, December and somewhere in the middle of there, where they may pause after the June meeting to see what the data looks like. It’s an election year, so it’s a little tricky to figure out exactly when they’ll do that.
Could they possibly move it up to March and May to get it out of the way of the election? They could, but I don’t think they’re going to be influenced that much by the election.
Kim: As mortgage rates increased, borrowers paid more points to buy them down. Do you think this will be a more permanent shift in the mortgage market even as rates stabilize?
Mark Palim: Part of what made it economical for the builders to offer rate buydowns was that the bond market was skeptical that the high rates would last long. So, the cost of buying down rates wasn’t as high as it might otherwise be from the perspective of borrowers and the builders subsidizing it with a buydown. I think it depends on the conditions and what the expectations are for rates.
Duncan: The 2% buydown saves you X amount of dollars monthly for as long as the market rates reach the level that you bought it down to. You have to make a judgment on how long rates will stay above that level for you to save that amount of money.
Kim: Overcapacity in the industry has resulted in lenders slimming down through layoffs and consolidations. How close are we from being done?
Duncan: I sat in on a meeting with about 30 small and midsized mortgage company CEOs where they said they made so much profit in 2020 through 2022, some of them are actually running at a loss knowingly to keep their best people.
Some are calibrating when they think volumes will pick up, how much of that pickup would be their business and what the cost is of carrying employees for this period. It may be the case that some of the employees would be willing to take a pay cut during that time period, knowing that the alternative is they lose their job.
When I was at the Mortgage Bankers Association, we had a model that worked pretty well to forecast what the downturn would be. Lenders held on to employment for six months. That was the window in which they wanted to see, ‘Will the trend change?’ so we don’t have to do layoffs, because it’s expensive to lay people off and rehire them.
One of the things that has undoubtedly changed is the advent of technology, centered around getting to the consumer faster. It’s a speed game for independent mortgage companies. They will do loans at a loss to get them done quickly, and keep the volume flowing through the business and covering their variable costs.
So, I think that those couple of alternative strategies and the advent of more technological development has changed the degree to which you see the volatility across the cycle.
Palim: The other thing I would add — two points — is that the projections for the size of the U.S. labor force are not vigorous. Growth is going to be substantially lower than it has been historically. You see pretty low levels of layoffs in the economy and questions about labor hoarding. So, it would make sense that given how hard it was to attract talent, I can see mortgage companies being reluctant to downsize unless they really have to.
Second point is, we do have a pickup in mortgage originations if rates and the economy go where they’re supposed to go next year and the following year.
Source: housingwire.com
A strong U.S. economy will be a boon for the housing market, Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) chief economist said on Thursday, as it will buoy demand and as inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will decline as well making home loans more affordable for buyers.
The U.S. economy accelerated at a faster-than-expected clip in the fourth quarter of 2023 at 3.3 percent, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation’s progress—jumped by 1.7 percent during the quarter. Core PCE, which excludes the often volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2 percent.
These dynamics bode well for the housing market that has been struggling under the weight of record-high mortgage rates, sparked in part by the Fed’s hiking of rate at the most aggressive clip since the 1980s to fight soaring inflation.
The Fed’s funds rate currently sits at 5.25 to 5.5 percent—the highest they have been in two decades—and policymakers have signaled that they will slash rates should inflation come down to their 2 percent target.
But an economy that may avoid a recession as inflation moderates without the Fed’s tight monetary policy doing too much damage to the jobs market would help the housing sector.
“Stronger economic growth will benefit the housing market, keeping demand robust,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek. “Moreover, today’s report also showed further reductions in inflation, which will enable the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year—as they have been hinting.”
Mortgage rates ticked up slightly for the week ending January 25, Freddie Mac said on Thursday, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.69 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate has remained within a very narrow range over the last month, settling in at 6.69% this week,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.
Rates look to have stabilized, Khater suggested, encouraging buyers to jump off the fence.
“Despite persistent inventory challenges, we anticipate a busier spring homebuying season than 2023, with home prices continuing to increase at a steady pace,” he said.
A slowdown in rates could have a negative impact on home buyers, some analysts say.
A decline in the cost of home loans would encourage more purchases, and this increase in demand will spark competition at a time when there is a limited supply of homes for sale.
More buyers who can afford mortgages entering the market will push up prices, analysts from Goldman Sachs said this week.
The investment bank’s experts project prices to soar by 5 percent in 2024, a marked revision from their earlier expectation of a 2 percent jump. That trend will continue through next year when prices are forecast to increase by nearly 4 percent, which is also a change from a previously estimated increase of close to 3 percent.
Amid the price increases, Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate that rates will fall to 6.63 percent for the year. This drop in rates from the near 8 percent highs of November 2023, will make house loans more affordable, sparking more demand for properties.
“We have very low inventory of houses for sale, which is generally supportive of prices, along with generally stable demand that is coming from things like household formation,” Roger Ashworth, senior strategist on the structured credit team at Goldman Sachs, said this week.
On Thursday, new home sales climbed up by 8 percent in December, according to government data, while prices declined to two-year lows. The fall in prices and a rise in sales was partly due to builders offering inducements to buyers, according to Yelena Maleyev, a senior economist at KPMG.
“Builders have pivoted to building smaller homes and offering more discounts and concessions, such as mortgage rate buydowns, to bring in buyers sidelined by rising mortgage rates,” she said in a note shared with Newsweek.
But the data from the U.S. Census Bureau also showed that inventory of newly built homes fell last month after going up the previous months. There were 453,000 houses available for sale at the end of December, which accounts for 8.2 months’ worth of supply.
This constituted a 3.5 percent decline from the same time a year ago, Maleyev pointed out.
The lack of inventory also comes at a time when the used homes market has struggled. Sales are down in that segment amid a lack of supply of homes as sellers are reluctant to give up their low rates for new home loans hovering in the mid-6 percent.
This lack of supply will be key to how prices shake out and the outlook for the year is not encouraging.
“If mortgage rates fall below 6 [percent] in 2024, more owners will feel comfortable listing their homes for sale, alleviating some of the shortages, but not enough to close the supply gap,” Maleyev said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
The past three years in the mortgage industry were cutthroat, with origination volume shrinking, and while things are looking better for 2024, lenders are still in a position where they must make bold moves to stem losses on the production side of the business, according to a report from Stratmor Group, a mortgage advisory firm.
More than half of mortgage executives who participated in Stratmor’s recent survey indicated that they do not believe their companies have turned the corner to become profitable when it comes to originations — excluding servicing.
About 85% of surveyed executives believed that their company was either not profitable or was roughly breaking even in production.
If lenders’ losses come in as expected during fourth-quarter 2023 and first-quarter 2024, it will represent eight consecutive quarters of losses for more than 350 independent mortgage bankers, said Jim Cameron, senior partner at Stratmor.
Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks have collectively been in the red for six consecutive quarters. Most recently, they reported an average net loss of $1,015 on each loan they originated in third-quarter 2023 — doubling the reported loss of $534 per loan in Q2, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
While lenders have been aggressively cutting labor costs — their largest type of expense — it has not been enough to reduce per-loan production expense.
Even with massive cuts to gross production expenses (from $44 million per company in Q3 2020 to $18 million in Q1 2023), the cost per loan has increased to more $13,000 as loan production units dropped off dramatically during that period.
As of Q3 2023, total loan production expenses were $11,441 per loan, up slightly from $11,044 in the prior quarter.
“As we head into 2024, it is clear we still have excess capacity and lenders must continue to be disciplined and aggressive in managing staffing levels,” Cameron said.
While labor is the priority when it comes to reducing costs, cutting down lease costs and making use of the hybrid work model; reviewing vendor contracts; and weeding out plug-ins with high costs and low adoption rates are needed, according to the report.
The silver lining for IMBs, in general, are their strong cash balances, the report noted.
After bouncing between the $6 million to $8 million range in 2018 and 2019, average cash balances now stand at about $11.5 million as of Q3 2023. Lenders sold off much of their servicing portfolios in 2022 and 2023, and balances would have been much lower without these moves, according Cameron.
“After a very challenging 2023 and not much relief expected in 2024, lenders must have a renewed focus on cash flow forecasting,” Cameron said.
“As a foundational need, mortgage bankers must ensure that they have a robust mechanism in place to forecast short-term, intermediate, and long-term cash flows. And coming in a close second is the need to get razor sharp with financial and operational reporting and monitoring of key performance indicators (KPIs). Mortgage bankers must be highly skilled at examining both costs and performance across a variety of dimensions, including fixed versus variable and break-even-point analyses,” he added.
Source: housingwire.com
Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler sat down with Matt VanFossen, CEO of Absolute Home Mortgage and Mortgage Automation Technologies, to talk about his unique view of the housing ecosystem and how it influences how he builds technology. Van Fossen not only heads a mortgage lender and a tech company, but is the president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of New Jersey and a board member of the Community Home Lenders of America.
Sarah Wheeler: You wear a lot of hats. How do all those different roles influence the technology you build?
Matt VanFossen: We build technology not only to sell but that we want to use. That culture resonates throughout our company and into our product lines. A differentiating factor of our tech is that lots of point of sale systems are built to faciitate loan officers with the business they already have. While we do that, we’re also focused on driving new business — from new clients but also from the relationships they already have.
We are focused on compliance and data capture at the top of the funnel, so we look at: how do we introduce loan officers not only to new technology, but to new business opportunities?
SW: What does that look like in very practical terms?
MVF: We realized that we needed to focus on the real estate agents our loan officers work with. Over the past 10 years, loan officers have become accustomed to forwarding their application right to the referral and taking the app, but what about their real estate agent counter-parties? Right now LOs have to go and remind agents and constantly be in front of them asking about referrals.
But a real estate agent has a limited amount of resources for elevating their referral. They might be driving down the road when they get a call or text message. Then they have to take whatever information they got and manually enter into their CMS. So we recoded the point of sale system so we can partner with agents on software. Now they have their own online application, but it’s not an application for a mortgage — it’s an application to buy or sell a house.
And now, anytime the agent uses those workflows, the loan officers are privy to that information. LOs can easily go in and see if they need to be preapproved and do that from their phone. So we reverse-engineered a lot of what we’ve built for loan officers and applied it to agents.
We basically created a massive collaboration system. From the first point of contact the customer has with the agent, they are being introduced to a digital ecosphere and they can remain in sthe ame portal all the way through the transaction. It’s the same portal to sign docs, eClose, get servicing information, even post-closing information. And if they ever need to apply for a new mortgage or refinance, they’re still living inside that port. So we’re keeping our customer from the first point of interaction all the way till the end of the real estate transaction and for the remainder of their lives inside of a single ecosphere.
SW: What was the “aha” moment that led to this development?
MVF: I hang out with a lot of LOs and agents, just in a social context, so the aha moment came when I was on a trip with friends. One is an agent and the other is an LO, and they both had to step away from the table like four different times, and I realized that the agent was getting new client referrals and had to pass that back to their team manually. I had completely missed this — that real estate agents don’t have an online application. An LO can text the link to their application portal, but not the agent. I realized we’ve been focusing for a decade on how to streamline this process for LOs but had abandoned our counterparties.
Because of my positions at a tech company, a mortgage company and in regulatory compliance, I have a view into all three points of this triangle — and I have developers that can go build it! Sitting on top of all three at the same time, I can see how they are all intimately intertwined, and I can test it with my own lender. I’m a user of this tech so I’m the mad scientist that’s experimenting on himself! I can jump in and code something, call an agent to have them come in and see it, then use with my own clients first. Then we can think about the enterprise version. It’s almost farm-to-table programming.
SW: So does that mean you only build versus buy?
MVF: No, because there are differet platforms that have some amazing features. We will build over buy in certain things but you can’t take over everything. We have some fabulous vendor tech partners in this industry. We’re focused on point of sale because it gives us control over the loan officer and agent and client experience, so we want to be in the driver’s seat for that.
But even with that mini-POS for agents, it’s not a full-blown CRM and they still need to use their CRM vendors, who will be better at journey campaigns, for example. And we work with awesome loan origination systems like Encompass to maintain compliance and a database. We can’t conquer every avenue so for us it’s about strategy and where we can get the biggest lift with our own tech and then shop the marketplace for strategic partners.
SW: What keeps you up at night? Security?
MVF: I am constantly thinking about this and how I’m not only responsible for cybersecurity for my various companies but also now my point of sale. But we’re very unique and the architecture we built for it was not possible more than a year ago. So rather than having two databases — one POS database where people apply online and then that application goes into another database where you hold that PII inside of it, and you synch those through an API — we don’t do it that way. We have single source of truth.
When an application comes in, or any of the Realtor referrals come in, they all get logged immediately into ICE’s Encompass. We don’t have a database — it all instantaneously, through an encrypted API transaction, as soon as the application hits it goes into Encompass. So there’s only one place and location and all of the loan data resides in that. So we are now more secure than ever because ICE has phenomenal information security. So what we do is put a customization layer on top of it. It’s a highly configurable, easy-to-use user interface that shares a database, rather than maintaining two databases. And that solves a lot of cybersecurity issues.
The other thing that keeps me up is mortgage rates and when we’ll see quantitative easing. What the industry really needs is to get some tailwind into the market.
When you look at the three things I’m involved in — I’m running a lender, I’m running a FinTech and I’m in advocacy. What solves all of that is a little bit lower interest rates. That will strengthen the housing market and make sure that independent mortgage bankers have stability in extremely volatile times. That ensures the tech company will continue to innovate, and all of those things together is going to help consumers, especially low to moderate income consumers.
Source: housingwire.com
U.S. economy: According to the latest estimate of U.S. economic growth for Q3 2023, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.9%, slightly slower than the second estimate but still the fastest since Q4 2021— and among the fastest growth in the last 20 years. Consumption spending growth was revised down from a SAAR of 3.6% in the second estimate to 3.1% in the final estimate. This was mainly led by a decline in spending on services but remained the largest contributor to growth at 2.1 percentage points. After nine consecutive quarters of negative growth, residential investment growth came in much stronger than the initial estimates at a SAAR of 6.7%.
The labor market remained much stronger than expected in 2023 and defied expectations of a slowdown. The economy added 216,000 jobs in December, bringing the total jobs added in 2023 to 2.7 million.1 While total jobs added in 2023 was lower than the historical highs of 2021 and 2022, job growth was still remarkable given the high interest rate environment the economy faced. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in December at 3.7% compared to November 2023, but moved up 0.3 percentage points over the year.
While job growth remained significant over the year, some indications of a softer labor market are starting to creep in. The labor force participation rate as well as employment to population ratio decreased 0.3 percentage points over the month to 62.5% and 60.1% respectively. Downward revisions to October and November job growth meant the 3-month average job gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 was the lowest since the third quarter of 2019, if we exclude the 2020 recession. However, the torrid pace of job growth was unlikely to be sustained and employment growth is approaching levels consistent with a balanced labor market. Heading into 2024, we might see a moderation in job growth, which would be more consistent with long-run growth in the U.S. labor force. Job openings edged down slightly to 8.8 million in November 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The ratio of job openings to unemployed, a metric that the Federal Reserve has been tracking to gauge the strength of the labor market, declined from a high of around 1.8 in January 2023 to 1.4 in November.
Inflation continues to trend towards the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. The preferred measure of inflation of the Federal Reserve, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measure increased at a rate of 3.2% year over year, the smallest annual increase since May 2021.2 While inflation has been moderating as the labor market normalizes, a reacceleration of home prices along with still high average hourly earnings growth at 4.1% year over year, could mean that getting to the 2% target might take longer than expected.
U.S. housing market: The housing market felt the impact of higher rates in 2023 with total annual home sales on track to be the lowest since 2012. Total (existing and new) home sales reached 4.4 million units in November 2023, down 1.2% as compared to October 2023 and 6.2% below November 2022. Total home sales averaged around 4.8 million from January through November 2023. Existing home sales were at 3.8 million as of November 2023 and averaged 4.1 million through November 2023.3 The existing housing inventory grew 15.3% year to date in November but the level of inventory (1.1 million homes available for sale in November) remains extremely low by historical standards.4 The rate-lock effect, which was the main driver of the lack of existing inventory, continued to push buyers towards the new home market. The number of new homes available for sale increased 2.7% year-to-date and was up 2.5% from the previous month. Overall, the sales of new homes averaged 666,000 in 2023 as compared to 637,000 in 2022.5
Falling interest rates have spurred the confidence of both potential homebuyers as well as the homebuilders. The Housing Market Index, which had decreased since August increased in December 2023. While existing home sales increased in November, pending home sales for November were still weak and saw a 5.2% decrease from the previous year. The FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index indicated that as of October of 2023, home prices rose 6.1% year to date, and as more home buyers enter the market amidst the lack of inventory, the pressure on prices could increase further.
U.S. mortgage market: Mortgage rates were on an upward trajectory for most of 2023, reaching 23-year highs in October. However, since the last week of October, rates have been declining mainly on the expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve along with easing inflationary pressures. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, as measured by Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), fell almost one percentage point from the last week in October through mid-December. Despite the decline in recent weeks, mortgage rates are 13 basis points higher than they were at the beginning of the year. Mortgage activity also declined with purchase applications down almost 12% in 2023 and total applications down 7% even as refinance applications increased 15% over the year.6
Tighter financial conditions and higher overall interest rates are starting to impact mortgage delinquency rates. Total mortgage delinquency rates were up 0.25 percentage points from 3.37% in Q2 2023 to 3.62% in Q3 2023 according to the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate on conventional mortgages increased from 2.29% to 2.5% in Q3 2023 while the delinquency rate of VA loans was up from 3.7% to 3.76% over the same period. The largest increase was in the delinquency rate of FHA loans which increased 0.55 percentage points from 8.95% in Q2 to 9.5% in Q3. Interestingly, serious delinquency rates (90+ DQs) went down across the board between Q2 and Q3. Foreclosure starts increased from 0.13% in Q2 to 0.19% in Q3 2023 but remain low compared to its historical average.
The U.S. economy exhibited tremendous resilience last year on strong consumer spending. We expect economic growth to slow this year as consumer spending starts to fade. Under our baseline scenario, with a slowing economy, the unemployment rate will see a modest uptick, and inflation will continue to moderate.
With inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting the federal fund rates immediately. However, it will continue to pause on interest rate hikes. We expect rate cuts in the second half of the year if the job market cools off enough to keep inflation muted. Under this scenario, we expect mortgage rates to ease throughout the year while remaining in the 6% range.
Falling rates will breathe some life into the housing market with some recovery in home sales. However, home sales are expected to grow only modestly due to a lack of inventory in the market. The demand for housing, however, will remain high based on a large share of Millennial first-time homebuyers looking to buy homes, which will push home prices up. We forecast home prices to increase 2.8% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025 nationally.
Under our baseline scenario, we expect increases in both purchase and refinance volumes this year and into 2025. On purchase originations, higher home sales and growth in home prices will drive the dollar volumes of purchase originations up. However, we do not expect purchase origination volumes to reach the levels seen in 2021 and 2022 as lack of inventory will limit home sales. The drop in mortgage rates will push refinance originations up, as buyers who obtained higher interest rates in 2023 will likely refinance into lower rates. However, rates remaining around the 6% range will not provide enough refinance incentives to millions of homeowners who currently have rates below 6%. And therefore, we expect refinance volume to grow only modestly this year. Overall, we forecast total origination volumes to improve this year and into the next.
Mortgage rates, as measured by Freddie Mac’s PMMS®, increased significantly in 2023 compared to the record lows of the past few years. On October 26, 2023, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 7.79%, a 23-year high. Since then, mortgage rates have moderated, but remain high by recent historical standards. These higher mortgage rates led many borrowers to make the decision to pay points in order to lower the rate when purchasing a house or refinancing an existing mortgage. During the low interest rate environment, few borrowers opted to pay discount points when obtaining a mortgage, but as rates started creeping up in the early 2022, we saw more borrowers paying discount points to lower their rate.
Using Freddie Mac closing data, we examined how often borrowers pay discount points and how many points they pay. For this analysis, the points we are focusing on are for permanent interest rate reductions throughout the life of the loan.7 To that end, we looked at a borrower profile that roughly matches our PMMS® population: mortgage for a home purchase or refinance of a one-unit, single-family owner-occupied property with a fully amortizing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. We further restricted our sample to borrowers with conforming loans, and with credit scores 740 or above and a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio between 75 and 80 (inclusive).
We found that the share of borrowers who paid discount points increased in 2023 (Exhibit 1). For example, about 58.8% of purchase mortgage borrowers paid discount points in 2023, compared to 31.3% and 53.6% of purchase borrowers in 2021 and 2022 respectively. The share paying discount points was higher for noncash- out and cash-out refinance borrowers, 59.9% and 82.4%, respectively. Also, conditional on paying points, refinance borrowers tended to pay much higher points: 0.99 points for purchase borrowers compared to 1.16 and 1.76 points for non-cash-out and cash-out refinance borrowers, respectively.
It is interesting to note, however, that the interest rate differential between borrowers who pay discount points and those who do not pay discount points is very small. Through November 2023, the average effective rate on purchase loans for borrowers who did not pay discount points was 6.69% versus 6.86% for those who did pay points. This result seems to suggest that paying discount points may not be worth it from the consumers’ point of view. Indeed, some academic research8 has shown that in many circumstances paying discount points can be a poor financial decision. However, while our tabulation shows that borrowers who do not pay points generally receive lower mortgage rates compared to similar borrowers who do pay points, we do not control completely for borrower observed and unobserved attributes. Therefore, we cannot say with certainty that for any particular borrower, the relationship between discount points paid and interest rate is negative.9
Exhibit 2 compares the quarterly average discount points paid by Freddie Mac borrowers (home purchase, owner occupied, one-unit properties). From 2018 through 2021, borrowers that matched the PMMS® profile, (borrowers with origination LTV between 75 and 80 and FICO score 740 or higher) paid about the same average amount of points compared to all purchase borrowers. Starting in 2022 and continuing through 2023, higher credit quality borrowers tended to pay fewer points compared to all borrowers. In 2023, borrowers that matched the PMMS® profile paid on average about 0.06 less points or about 10% less compared to all purchase borrowers.
Prime borrowers who pay discount points on average have higher incomes and are obtaining higher loan balances when purchasing a home compared to borrowers who do not pay points. For example, in 2023 the average loan amount for purchase loans with points paid at origination was $360,000, compared with an average loan amount of $370,000 for mortgages where the borrowers did not pay points. In 2023, the average annual income of a “no discount points” borrower was $148,000, higher than the $140,000 average annual income for borrowers who paid points.
Our analysis on the closing files data shows that there is a difference in borrower behavior across the U.S. when it comes to paying discount points and origination fees. For example, in 2023 over 70% of prime purchase borrowers in HI, NM, WV, OR, WA, and DE paid discount points when closing on their mortgage while less than 50% of borrowers paid discount points in VT, IA, MA, IL, NE, ND, and WI. Exhibit 3 below shows the breakdown by state in 2023.
Our analysis shows that mortgage borrowers in 2023 were more willing to pay discount points than in previous years, and that the likelihood of paying points was greater for lower credit quality borrowers compared to the high-quality mortgage borrowers captured in our PMMS® profile population. We also saw that borrowers in the Midwest were less likely to pay points compared to borrowers in the Pacific and Mountain West. If interest rates stabilize in 2024, it will be interesting to observe whether borrowers opt to pay fewer points, or if the recent uptick in paying discount points is a more permanent shift in the mortgage market.
1 Non-Farm Employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2 BEA
3 National Association of Realtors (NAR)
4 From January 1999 through December 2019 the average number of existing homes available for sale averaged 2.2 million, about double the number of homes available for sale in November 2023.
5 U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
6 Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
7 For an analysis of temporary buydowns see our previous Research Brief: https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20230731-temporary-mortgage-rate-buydown-activity-spiked-in.
8 See for example: Agarwal, S., Ben-David, I. and Yao, V., 2017. Systematic mistakes in the mortgage market and lack of financial sophistication. Journal of Financial Economics, 123(1), pp. 42-58.
9 For a more detailed analysis see: Mota, N., Palim, M. and Woodward, S., 2022. Mortgages are still confusing… and it matters—How borrower attributes and mortgage shopping behavior impact costs. Fannie Mae Working Paper. https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45841/display
Prepared by the Economic & Housing Research group
Sam Khater, Chief Economist
Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist
Ajita Atreya, Macro & Housing Economics Manager
Rama Yanamandra, Macro & Housing Economics Manager
Penka Trentcheva, Macro & Housing Economics Senior
Genaro Villa, Macro & Housing Economics Senior
Lalith Manukonda, Finance Analyst
www.freddiemac.com/research
Source: freddiemac.com
Mortgage demand continued to increase last week, as seen in an uptick in purchase activity. Mortgage applications rose by 3.7% in the week ending Jan. 19 compared to one week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, per the Mortgage Bankers Association‘s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey.
“Conventional and FHA purchase applications drove most of the increase last week as some buyers moved to act early this season,”Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement. “Refinance applications declined over the week and remained at low levels. There is still little incentive for homeowners to refinance with rates at these levels.”
The MBA survey shows the average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.78% last week, up from 6.75% the prior week. Rates on jumbo loans (greater than $766,550) rose to 6.94% up from 6.86%.
The MBA data shows that purchase apps increased by 8% from one week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, while refis were down 7% in the same period. Last week, refis comprised 32.7% of the total applications, down from 37.5% the previous week.
The Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) share of total applications decreased to 14.1% last week, down from 14.3% the week prior. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) share fell to 13.7%, down from 14.2% the week before. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) share decreased to 0.4% from 0.5%.
The MBA survey, conducted weekly since 1990, covers more than 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.
Source: housingwire.com
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average contract interest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down to 6.75% as of January 12. On the bright side, demand seems to be picking up. Read more: Mortgage applications surge as buyers respond positively to rate adjustments Refinance loan applications rose 11%, while purchase mortgage applications … [Read more…]