Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. However, 2023 tested my model as the inventory growth rate on a week-to-week basis was slow, even when rates headed toward 8%. It’s a simple model: inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly with rates over 7.25%. After failing time and time again, we finally got there this week with 16,582.
Weekly inventory change (April 12-19): Inventory rose from 526,462 to 543,044
The same week last year (April 14-21), Inventory rose from 406,600 to 414,701
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,060,669
New listings data
Now that inventory is growing more closely with what I am looking for, new listing data must keep its year-over-year growth trend. Last year, when mortgage rates headed toward 8%, we saw no negative hit to the latest listings data, meaning it didn’t take a new leg lower. So, with higher rates now and some growth year over year, I hope we keep the momentum going. We need this to happen to get balance in housing.
Here’s what new listings look like for last week over the last several years:
2024: 68,769
2023: 59,269
2022: 59,803
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls and the price-cut percentage grows. That percentage falls when rates drop and demand improves.
As mortgage rates rise with inventory, the price-cut percentage should increase unless demand keeps up with inventory growth. Last week, we saw a slight decline in the price cuts.
Here is the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.4%
2022: 18.7%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had a lot of headline drama last week, between Powell talking about taking rate cuts off the table, escalating war in the Middle East, and economic data beating estimates. This sent the 10-year yield and mortgage rates higher. I talked about this on the HousingWire Daily podcast, discussing my central theme that for the Fed to pivot, it’s labor over Inflation.
When the labor market breaks, the Fed will pivot; we aren’t there just yet. As the chart below shows, many people were looking at the growth rate of inflation falling as the main driver for the Fed, but that isn’t working in this cycle.
One positive story about mortgage rates in 2024 is that the spreads are improving, and that has kept a lid on the damage from higher yields. The spreads are acting a bit better than I thought they would, I had assumed we would need to get closer to rate cuts before they would behave this way. However, this bodes well for the future because if the spreads get back to normal and the 10-year yield falls with it, we can easily get to the low 6s range for mortgage rates and potentially below 6%.
Purchase application data
One surprising data point from last week was that purchase application data showed positive growth, and the year-over-year decline was much less.
However, the only reason this happened is that the week before, the Easter holiday negatively impacted the data, which made this week’s growth data need a lot of context. With weekly housing data, holiday activity can move negative and positive, but after two weeks, it gets back on trend. So, take last week’s growth with a grain of salt.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 11 positive prints versus seven negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had five positive prints, seven negative prints, and two flat prints.
The week ahead: Housing and inflation
We have new home sales and pending home sales coming up this week, and we will see how much the recent rate increase has impacted the data line. Also, the Fed’s main inflation report, the PCE inflation data, will be released on Friday, so it should be a wild day. Ever since the 10-year yield broke it’s critical support line, the bond market and mortgage rates have been acting up, so this inflation report will be key as the Fed will factor in how much we need mortgage rates to stay higher for longer in this economic expansion.
Average mortgage rates rose very slightly yesterday. I’m afraid it’s a sign that Wednesday’s moderate fall wasn’t necessarily the start of much happier times.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today could barely budge. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.29%
7.34%
+0.03
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.744%
6.822%
+0.04
30-year fixed FHA
7.129%
7.179%
+0.21
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.682%
7.918%
-0.01
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.15%
7.207%
+0.07
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.607%
6.68%
+0.02
30-year fixed VA
7.28%
7.324%
+0.2
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I reckon it’s likely to be some months before we begin to see consistently falling mortgage rates. The economy is currently too robust and inflation is too warm for a sustained downward trend. And there are few signs of that changing until the summer or fall — or perhaps even later.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ticked lower to 4.62 from 4.63%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $82.77 from $82.98 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices rose to $2,398 from $2,393 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged down to 32 from 35 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
There are no economic reports scheduled for release today. And the words of the sole senior Federal Reserve official with a speaking engagement, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, are unlikely to affect markets. His boss, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, laid out the central bank’s position on future cuts to general interest rates as recently as Tuesday.
Of course, mortgage rates can still move on days like today. But they’re generally driven by market sentiment or occasionally by important news that affects the economy.
Next week
Next Monday is much like today: zero economic reports on the schedule. Tuesday’s purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) could produce some movement in mortgage rates. But that’s typically limited and temporary, a description that applies to Wednesday’s durable goods orders data, too.
Things could warm up next Thursday when the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter is due.
And next Friday should bring the March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. So, it can certainly affect mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a division of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is sounding the alarm over challenges faced by elder financial exploitation (EFE).
In a newly released trends report, FinCEN highlighted more than $27 billion worth of “suspicious activity” across more than 155,000 filings of Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) data with FinCEN between June 15, 2022 and June 15, 2023.
The data is linked to elder financial exploitation, “or the illegal or improper use of an older adult’s funds, property, or assets.” Within the $27 billion-plus in reported suspicious activity, EFE could include both actual and attempted transactions that “may affect personal savings, checking accounts, retirement savings, and investments, and can severely impact victims’ well-being and financial security,” the report stated.
This is a follow-up to a prior notice issued by FinCEN in June 2022, which aimed to alert financial institutions of a rising trend of EFE. FinCEN noted that companies should be aware of these activities and attempt to counteract them through both internal mechanisms and reporting to authorities.
“FinCEN has long recognized the threat that [EFE] poses and the need to protect the older adult population from financial abuse,” FinCEN Director Andrea Gacki said in a statement. “FinCEN’s analysis highlights the critical role of financial institutions in helping to identify, prevent, and report suspected [EFE]. We are grateful for their vigilance and for the BSA information they have filed — and continue to file — in response to FinCEN’s 2022 advisory.”
Seventy-two percent of all EFE filings included in the data were filed by banks, with two banks alone accounting for 50,670 (33%) of all filings. The most commonly cited typology of the EFE incidents were “account takeovers,” and adult children of the elder victims were the most common perpetrators, according to the report.
“BSA filers reported adult children as the perpetrators of elder theft in nearly 40% of cases, based on a manual review of EFE-related filings,” the report explained.
Perpetrators also relied primarily on what FinCEN refers to as “unsophisticated means,” or those that “minimize direct contact with financial institution employees” and which include “using previously compromised identifying information and/or passwords, guessing passwords, or mass spam emails that elicit replies containing sensitive information.”
This is because direct involvement with financial institution personnel would increase the likelihood of being caught, since workers at these institutions “would likely identify EFE activity more frequently if victims or perpetrators conducted transactions in person, and presumably not permit the requested transactions.”
Financial institutions also filed significantly more reports related to scams targeting seniors, most frequently including “tech support” scams in which a perpetrator falsely claims to offer technical assistance, or “romance scams” in which a perpetrator attempts to present themselves as a potential romantic partner to the victim.
Real estate scams are also included in the typology of the report, although it does not mention reverse mortgages specifically. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Office of the Inspector General (OIG) previously identified reverse mortgage scams as a potential vehicle for perpetrators to target elderly victims.
Late last year, the FBI warned the public about a problematic rise in instances of elder financial abuse. Seniors are common targets of financial scammers, and authorities consistently warn the public to safeguard the financial accounts and assets of their loved ones.
“It’s no secret that the combination of rising interest rates, limited inventory and growing property appreciation have made it more difficult for potential homebuyers to purchase in today’s market. While existing homeowners have benefitted tremendously from skyrocketing home equity, that trend has put buyers at a tremendous disadvantage,” Click n’ Close CEO Jeff Bode said in a Press release. “By combining our proprietary DPA programs with a shared appreciation option, we’re not only helping buyers get into a home more easily but also reap the benefit of homeownership from day one.”
The program is available to retail clients and through Click n’ Close’s wholesale division.
Read next: Gen Z remains hopeful about buying homes despite affordability issues
Formerly known as Mid America Mortgage, Click n’ Close has been operating since 1940. It is also a leading provider of Section 184 home loans for Native Americans. The lender maintains direct relationships with major financing agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, enhancing its access to capital markets and ensuring liquidity for its loan products. Click n’ Close also manages loan servicing in-house, which it believes guarantees consistent borrower service and enhances loan salability for its partners.
Stay updated with the freshest mortgage news. Get exclusive interviews, breaking news, and industry events in your inbox, and always be the first to know by subscribing to our FREE daily newsletter.
“I am gravitating towards rustic stone and plaster, specifically using them together as I think the juxtaposition of the two opposing materials side by side is so beautiful. Moving into warmer months for me also means turning away from the darker, heavier colors, specifically with undertones of brown or orange and instead embracing more vibrant colors that reflect spring and summer floral blooms like white, yellow, and green.” —Rita Donahoe, owner and principal designer at Rita Chan Interiors and TALD Member
2
Pops of Color
KEVIN MIYAZAKI
“This spring, I’m seeing people becoming much braver with color and pairing warm, earthy neutrals with pops of bright primary colors like vibrant acid yellow, lovely lime green, bright oranges, and an accent red. Using a pop of color brings such a gorgeous sense of optimism into a space—just like spring. This trend is also timeless, as the primary color is an accent, and the neutrals the accent is paired with will stand the test of time.” —Tash Bradley, color psychologist and director of interior design at Lick Paint
3
More Personal Design
Chris Motallini
“I feel like for a while a good portion of the design world has seemed like it has become a little bit homogenized, but I think more designers and individuals are starting to tell their own authentic stories, utilizing the colors and textures and materials that are truest to their clients’ stories or lives. Perhaps the trend is just more personal design, and I love that. I want to see a variety of ideas, perspectives, and styles versus so much of the same look. It’s so much more inspiring to see creations that are totally unique!” —Rita Donahoe, owner and principal designer at Rita Chan Interiors and TALD Member
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4
Small-Scale Florals
Pierre Galant
“For spring we are excited to see dramatic color in small doses. Unlikely color combinations are here, and we are excited to infuse reds, pinks, and saturated colors together to create interest and cheer in a space. We are looking at wallpapers and paint to add color and pattern. We are happy to add small-scale florals as well as bold patterns into our homes.” —Shelby Van Daley, founder and principal designer at Daley Home
5
Dusty Earth Tones
Nicole Franzen
“Dusty earth tones are continuing to dominate the industry, and I think we will see even more of this as we enter spring. Adding natural elements into home decor is also a trend we are seeing on the rise, as well as incorporating vintage pieces into the mix. People are opting for statement pieces that really create wow moments in a home versus overaccessorizing.” —Meredith Owen, founder and principal at Meredith Owen Interiors
6
Oversized Branches
Katie Hodges Design
“I love incorporating organic elements in my decorating. Whether faux or real, plants and stems breathe life into any space. If you can only make one change seasonally, I recommend refreshing your greenery with seasonal varieties. In the spring, I am especially drawn to large-scale flowering branches for a dramatic display.” —Summer Little, owner and principal designer at Prescott Design and TALD Member
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7
Botanical Prints
KEVIN J. MIYAZAKI
“In terms of pattern, I’ve seen nature-inspired novelty prints gain popularity this season. Overall, there’s a growing emphasis on the use of color and a mix of patterns in design, along with a resurgence of classic menswear-inspired patterns like plaids, houndstooth, and jacquards.” —Lindsie Davis, founder and principal designer at Blueberry Jones Design
8
Metal Surfaces
Assembly Line
“There is a more eclectic mix of materials and styles emerging. I think we will see more classic shapes and patterns mixed with industrial-feeling pieces like the Frama Rivet table. I would also say our palette is definitely lighter lately, moving away from the heavier natural colors like dark greens and browns. We have instead been drawn to lighter blues and purples, as well as reflective materials.” —Colin Stief, interior designer and partner at General Assembly
9
Mustard Yellow
Stephen Karlisch
“Mustard yellow—we’re partial to India Yellow by Farrow & Ball—is the perfect blend between warm and vibrant. With its brown undertones, this hue can be paired with a warm white for a light mood or a deep brown for a rich contrast.” —Maria Vassiliou, interior architect and owner of Maria Zoe Designs
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10
Curved Silhouettes
KEVIN J. MIYAZAKI
“One word that keeps coming up time and time again among my clients is cozy. To make a space cozy, relaxed, and welcoming, use any materials with an organic form and no sharp edges. I’m seeing this more and more through circular sofas, a round kitchen table, or headboards with a wave to them. Anything circular will give you that cozy and wholesome feeling. ” —Tash Bradley, color psychologist and director of interior design at Lick Paint
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The spring homebuying season is off to a sluggish start as home shoppers contend with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell 4.3% in March from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the first monthly decline in sales since December and follows a nearly 10% monthly sales jump in February.
Existing home sales also fell 3.7% compared with March last year. The latest sales still came in slightly higher than the 4.16 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
A modest pullback in mortgage rates early this year helped lift home sales in January and February, but rates mostly ticked up in February and March, when many of the home sales that were finalized last month would have taken place.
AP correspondent Shelley Adler reports on the spring homebuying season.
Mortgage rates have risen the past three weeks, with the average rate on a 30-year mortgage moving this week above 7% to its highest level since late November, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday.
The trend is a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.
“Home sales essentially remain stuck because (the) mortgage rate has been stable and inventory is not really rising,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Despite the pullback in sales, the national median home sales price climbed 4.8% from a year earlier to $393,500. That’s the highest median sales price for any March on records going back to 1999 and marks the ninth month in a row that prices have risen compared to a year earlier.
The latest surge in prices reflects the heightened competition many home shoppers are facing. Consider, 60% of homes purchased in March sold within less than a month of hitting the market. And 29% of homes sold above their initial list price, up from 28% in March last year, Yun said.
“Inventory is simply not there,” he said.
While the supply of homes on the market remains below the historical average, the typical increase in homes for sale that happens ahead of the spring homebuying season gave home shoppers a wider selection of properties to choose from.
At the end of last month, there were 1.11 million unsold homes on the market, a 4.7% increase from February and up 14.4% from a year earlier, the NAR said. That’s still well short of the 1.7 million homes on the market in March 2019, before the pandemic.
The available inventory at the end of last month amounted to a 3.2-month supply, going by the current sales pace. That’s up from a 2.9-month supply in February and a 2.7-month supply in March last year. In a more balanced market between buyers and sellers, there is a 4- to 5-month supply.
That shortage of homes on the market means home sellers generally having an edge on buyers, especially those vying for the most affordable homes, which often fetch multiple offers.
The U.S. housing market is coming off a deep, 2-year sales slump triggered by a sharp rise in mortgage rates and a dearth of homes on the market. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank to a nearly 30-year low last year, tumbling 18.7% from 2022 as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage surged to a 23-year high of 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage got as low as 6.67% in mid January, but has been creeping higher, reaching 7.1% this week. When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford.
Mortgage rates have mostly drifted higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation stoked doubt among bond investors over how soon the Federal Reserve will move to lower its benchmark interest rate.
Home loan borrowing rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The central bank wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.
Many economists still expect that mortgage rates will ease modestly this year, which could give homebuyers who can’t afford to pay all cash for a home more purchasing power.
“The 30-year-fixed mortgage rate could rise for few months to maybe even 7.5% before settling back down to 6.5% by the end of the year,” Yun said. In January, NAR forecast the average rate would drop to 6.1% by year’s end.
Economists at Realtor.com also project that the rate could average 6.5% by the end of this year.
For now, first-time homebuyers who don’t have any home equity to put toward their down payment continue to have a tough time getting into the housing market, though they accounted for 32% of all homes sold last month, an increase from 26% in February and 28% in March last year. That’s still well short of the 40% of sales they’ve accounted for historically.
Prospective homebuyers are facing competition from buyers who can afford to buy a home in cash. Some 28% of homes sold last month were purchased entirely with cash, down from 33% in February, but up from 27% a year ago, the NAR said.
Homes in Rocklin, California, on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage crossed over 7% on April 1, according to Mortgage News Daily, and it just kept going. It now sits right around 7.5%, the highest level since mid-November of last year.
Rates hit their highest level in a few decades last October, causing home sales to grind to a halt. Builders jumped to buy down rates for their customers and managed to do better than existing home sellers.
Rates then fell through mid-January to the mid-6% range and held there into February, causing a surge in home sales. But then they began rising again.
“By mid-February, a pick-up in inflation reset expectations, putting mortgage rates back on an upward trend, and more recent data and comments from Fed Chair [Jerome] Powell have only underscored inflation concerns,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “Sales data over the next few months is likely to reflect the impact of now-higher mortgage rates.”
Even with rates higher, however, mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Demand was still 10% lower than the same week one year ago, even with rates now 70 basis points higher than they were a year ago.
“Despite these higher rates, application activity picked up, possibly as some borrowers decided to act in case rates continue to rise,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s chief economist.
That may be short-lived, however, as affordability weakens even further. While there is more supply on the market now than there was a year ago, it is still at a very low level historically. That has caused homes to move faster as the competition increases. Anyone waiting for rates to drop significantly may be waiting for a while.
“Recent economic data shows that the economy and job market remain strong, which is likely to keep mortgage rates at these elevated levels for the near future,” said Bob Broeksmit, MBA’s president and CEO.
LED light strips give Bilal the ick because they tend to look cheap, when that is not the desired effect. “They do not look expensive, they don’t look high-end, they don’t feel like elevated decor,” he says. “They literally just feel like you ordered an LED strip off Amazon and stuck it to your wall. And that’s exactly what it is.”
Vivien of Posh Pennies is particularly averse to battery-operated sconces, detesting the fact that they require remotes and batteries, and that they eventually stop getting used because they require recharging. “If you’re serious about where you want your light, then get it wired, pop in a smart bulb, put it on a schedule, and call it a day! So worth it,” the interior design blogger and YouTuber explains. Bilal agrees that smart light bulbs are a much better alternative, especially if you’re looking for the ability to easily change the mood of a room with lighting.
Focusing on the screen, rather than the big picture of your space
As sharing interior design on social media gains more and more traction, and we become accustomed to seeing beautiful rooms on the reg, it can be tempting to focus only on what looks good onscreen. Imani Keal, a design blogger who specializes in renter-friendly decor and DIY, often wonders what’s going on beyond the frame of a quirky DIY space she sees on TikTok. “They sometimes don’t show the project in the context of the rest of the room or apartment, and it’s often because that project only looks good from one angle or as a vignette,” she explains.
It’s important to make sure a fun project actually works with the rest of your living space, rather than just conforming to the latest trend. “The purpose of creating a beautiful space is so that it looks and feels warm and welcoming in real life and on the internet, not just in five-second clips,” she adds. Garrett Le Chic fully agrees. As an interior designer, he’s all about making updates to your home that are consistent with its architecture.
“Renovating to change the style of your house in the long term doesn’t always make the most sense because it just requires a lot more effort, a lot more money, a lot more work than is really necessary,” he says. “When, if you took the core elements, the backbone of what the architectural style of your house is, and you apply that, it works better in the long term.”
Bland dust-collecting decor
There’s nothing like a good knickknack or piece of art to really liven up a room. With so many affordable online and brick-and-mortar home-goods stores, it’s easier than ever to find what you need to add in a space. This is both a blessing as a curse, as it means that now more than ever, there’s a plethora of mass-produced items with no personality taking up space and collecting dust over time.
On the subject of word art, Phoenix has one question: “Who is buying this?” He continues, “I know the ‘Live, Love, Laugh’ signs of the early 2000s have faded out, but now it’s like very weird quotes on boards that people are spending between 10 and 20 dollars on. The amount of staged homes that I’ve seen from real estate agents that have those too.”
Powell: “Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and evolving outlook guide us.”
The Fed believes the labor market has been too firm, and wages have been growing too fast. By attacking the labor supply, the Fed believes Americans will make less money, forcing them to spend less. However, they’ve always wanted the labor market to break, meaning jobless claims rising, before they can give the A-OK to pivot. I brought this up last year in a CNBC interview. However, with the recent inflation data that has come into play, the Fed believes it’s too much of a risk to cut rates now while the labor market is intact.
Powell: “The performance of the U.S. economy over the past year has really been quite strong. We had growth of more than 3% last year as rebounding supply supported both robust growth in spending and also employment alongside a considerable decline in inflation. More recent data shows solid growth and continued strength in the labor market but also a lack of further progress so far this year in returning to our 2% inflation goal.”
Regarding this statement, the labor market has gotten softer based on their models, but it hasn’t broken yet. There is a difference between getting softer versus breaking. In this article I show a lot of charts and explain why they could land the plane if they wanted to do so. As this comment shows, the goal is for the labor market to break; it hasn’t yet.
Powell: “The labor market remains very strong…the unemployment rates has been below 4% for 26 consecutive months which hasn’t happened in more than half a century, the longest streak of its kind.”
Regarding the labor market, we want to keep this simple as we have talked about it since 2022. The labor market breaking means jobless claims rising. When jobless claims rise, the Fed will take notice, as they said in the recent Fed press meeting. However, they see the low jobless claims as a reason for them to still be restrictive.
Currently, jobless claims on the four-week moving average are at 214,000. I believe jobless claims would need to rise to 323000 on a four-week moving average for the Fed to pivot.
Powell:“We’ve said at the FOMC that we will need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% before it would be appropriate to ease policy… The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that its likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”
This just proves to me that the timeline for rate cuts will change not based on inflation but by the labor data getting weaker. If the labor market breaks, the Federal Reserve won’t need time to think about it — they just need to see enough people losing their jobs.
The main point of today’s remarks is that the recent economic data is too strong for the Fed to make rate cuts. The economy is growing above trend, retail sales just came in as a big beat, and jobless claims are too low. For those reasons — and the fact that recent inflation data is sticky — the Fed will hold off on any rate cuts until they see more weakness in the economic data or the labor market. I believe that if the labor market was breaking today, they wouldn’t care so much about the recent inflation, but jobless claims are simply too low.
Mortgage rates jumped for all types of loans compared to a week ago, according to data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans edged higher.
While mortgage rates are still on track to gradually come down this year, the path might be bumpy. Lenders price mortgages based on many variables, but overall, fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves as investor appetite fluctuates with the state of the economy and Federal Reserve decisions.
The Fed indicated it’d cut rates in 2024, but policymakers held off at its latest meeting, citing the need for more promising economic data. The Fed has been working to bring inflation back to its 2 percent target since 2022.
“The Fed is not in a hurry to start cutting interest rates as the progress toward 2 percent inflation has encountered some turbulence,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.
For now, the Fed expects to issue three rate cuts in 2024. When that happens, the rates on a variety of financial products, including mortgages, should follow suit.
Whether mortgage rates move up or down, though, it’s tough to time the market. Often, the decision to buy a home comes down to needs. Depending on your situation, it might make sense to take a higher rate now and hope to refinance later — buying a home at today’s prices rather than a higher price in the future, while building equity that much sooner.
Rates last updated April 15, 2024.
The rates listed above are averages based on the assumptions here. Actual rates displayed across the site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Monday, April 15th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.
30-year mortgage rate climbs, +0.08%
Today’s average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.05 percent, up 8 basis points from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was lower, at 6.90 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $668.66 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $5.37 higher compared with last week.
15-year mortgage rate moves higher, +0.16%
The average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.54 percent, up 16 basis points over the last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost approximately $873 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little harder to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll come out several thousand dollars ahead over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much faster.
5/1 ARM rate increases, +0.02%
The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.58 percent, up 2 basis points over the last 7 days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage loans that come with a floating interest rate. To put it another way, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These loan types are best for people who expect to refinance or sell before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be substantially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.58 percent would cost about $637 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could increase by hundreds of dollars afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
The average rate for the benchmark jumbo mortgage is 7.21 percent, up 12 basis points from a week ago. Last month on the 15th, the average rate for jumbo mortgages was below that at 7.04 percent.
At today’s average jumbo rate, you’ll pay principal and interest of $679.47 for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s up $8.11 from what it would have been last week.
Refinance rates
30-year fixed-rate refinance increases, +0.08%
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.07 percent, up 8 basis points from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower at 6.85 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $670.01 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s an increase of $5.38 over what you would have paid last week.
Where are mortgage rates heading?
With mortgage rates buffeted by many factors, it’s impossible to predict exactly when they’ll rise or fall. With the Fed still aiming for three rate cuts this year, it’s possible we’ll see lower rates sooner rather than later.
Keep in mind: The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.
These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.
What today’s rates mean for your mortgage
While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
You could save serious money on interest by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
More on current mortgage rates
Methodology
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
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