Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday for the fourth consecutive day. So, it’s been a good week for those rates, and they’re now appreciably lower than they were seven days ago.
Whether that happy experience extends into next week will likely depend almost entirely on Tuesday’s inflation report, the consumer price index (CPI) for February. So, yet again, I’m forced to say mortgage rates next week could go either way. Ask me again late on Tuesday morning.
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Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.02%
7.04%
-0.08
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.51%
6.54%
+0.05
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.03%
7.05%
Unchanged
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.57%
6.59%
+0.08
30-year fixed FHA
6.15%
6.82%
+0.05
30-year fixed VA
6.43%
6.54%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.28%
7.35%
-0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
I think it unlikely that the last couple of rate-friendly weeks are the start of the sustained downward trend in mortgage rates that I’ve been predicting for months. However, if next Tuesday’s CPI report turns out to be exceptionally good for those rates, I just might be proved wrong.
But I doubt it. So, my personal rate lock recommendations are now:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
This week
The economic data published earlier this week suggested that economic growth is slowing at just the right rate. Mortgage rate watchers would like to see it cooling but not enough to trigger a recession.
Typically mortgage rates tend to be lower when the economy is struggling or at least not running too hot.
Some indicators this week pointed to continuing resilience, including the headline figure in yesterday’s jobs report. However, that was balanced out by a very large downward revision to the previous month’s number, and by the report’s other major components being friendly to mortgage rates
Next week’s CPI
So much depends on next Tuesday’s CPI. Only the jobs report rivals its ability to move mortgage rates so far and for so long.
As usual, we want lower numbers on the day than markets are expecting. Wall Street will already have priced into mortgage rates the consensus forecasts. So, it’s the gap between expectations and reality that changes those rates.
There are four main items in the CPI report:
All-items CPI — The amount by which the prices of all surveyed items moved in February. Called just CPI
Core CPI — The all-items CPI after volatile food and energy prices have been stripped out, revealing underlying inflation in February
YOY CPI — The year-over-year CPI will reveal how all surveyed items moved between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024
YOY core CPI — The year-over-year core CPI will reveal how all surveyed prices for items excluding food and energy moved between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024
Here’s what’s currently expected, according to MarketWatch, for the upcoming February report:
February CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items to have risen by 0.4%. (0.3% in January report)
February core CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items excluding those for food and energy to have risen by 0.3%. (0.4% in January report)
YOY CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items to have risen by 3.1% between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024. (3.1% in January report)
YOY core CPI — Markets are expecting prices for all items excluding those for food and energy to have risen by 3.7% between Mar. 1, 2023 and Feb. 29, 2024. (3.9% in January report)
Remember, mortgage rates are more likely to fall if actual figures are lower than the expected ones.
Other important reports next week
The other economic reports are much less likely to move mortgage rates far or for long. But those most likely to do so, in rough order of importance, are:
February retail sales on Thursday — Expected to rise by +0.7% compared to January’s -0.8%
February producer price index (PPI) on Thursday — Expected to hold steady at 0.3%. This measures wholesale and factory-gate prices so changes may turn up in later CPIs
February industrial production on Friday — Expected to rise to 0.0% from a negative in January. Also, capacity utilization, which is expected to inch lower compared to January
February import price index (IPI) on Wednesday — Expected to fall to 0.3% from January’s 0.8%. This measures price changes in foreign-sourced goods and services
Of those, retail sales and the PPI are most likely to affect mortgage rates. But even they rarely move them far or for long.
The Fed
Wall Street currently views most economic reports through the prism of how they’ll affect the Federal Reserve’s decisions on when it will start cutting general interest rates and how often it will do so after that.
That’s why The Wall Street Journal (paywall) yesterday greeted the jobs report with the headline, “Hiring Boom Continues, but Signs of a Cooling Labor Market Boost Rate-Cut Hopes.” In the article beneath it said:
“The Goldilocks report lends credence to the Federal Reserve’s outlook that somewhat lower interest rates could be warranted later this year, potentially providing a boost to markets that have been on a tear to start 2024.
“Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, summed up Friday’s report with one word: cool. ‘That’s what the Fed wants to see right now,’ he said.
The Fed will next decide on rate policy on Mar. 20. Very few expect it to cut general interest rates that day. But Wall Street hopes it will strongly hint at cuts at the May or June meetings of its rate-setting committee.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Monday — Nothing
Tuesday — February consumer price index. Also small business optimism index for the same month
Wednesday — Nothing
Thursday — February retail sales. Plus February producer price index. And initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 9
Friday — February industrial production and capacity utilization. Also, the February import price index
With the consumer price index, Tuesday is make-or-break day.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
I hate not giving rate forecasts for the following week. But this is the third consecutive Saturday on which I really can’t.
Nobody knows what Tuesday’s CPI will say. And that’s very likely to determine how mortgage rates will move over the next seven days.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
Interest — The price of borrowing
Taxes — Specifically property taxes
Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately for a third consecutive day yesterday. But don’t get too comfortable. The two economic reports that are most consequential for those rates are both due over the next few days. And they could change everything.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.1%
7.12%
-0.06
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.46%
6.49%
-0.08
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.03%
7.05%
-0.01
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.48%
6.51%
-0.11
30-year fixed FHA
6.11%
6.77%
-0.13
30-year fixed VA
6.43%
6.54%
-0.08
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.29%
7.36%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Are the steady falls in mortgage rates we’ve been seeing in recent days the start of the sustained downward trend I’ve been predicting? It’s possible. But I doubt it.
I’m not expecting that to begin properly for at least a couple of months and perhaps longer.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ticked down to 4.08% from 4.09%. (Good for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices inched down to $78.53 from $78.60 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices edged up to $2,174 from $2,158 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — increased minimally to 75 from 74 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to move downward. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning, we finally saw the February jobs report (aka the employment situation report). And it might prove less bad for mortgage rates than one might fear.
Yesterday, I described the report’s three headline figures. Here they are again with this morning’s actual figures shown in bold:
Nonfarm payrolls (the number of new jobs created that month) — Today’s actual: 275,000. Markets were expecting that to be 198,000, well down from January’s 353,000
Unemployment rate — Today’s actual: 3.9%. Markets were expecting that to be 3.7%, unchanged from January
Average hourly wages — Today’s actual: 0.1%. Markets were expecting a 0.2% rise, much lower than January’s 0.6% increase
You can see that the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings numbers would typically be good for mortgage rates. But markets tend to react to nonfarm payrolls primarily. And The Wall Street Journal (paywall) reported the data under the headline, “Hiring Boom Continues With 275,000 Jobs Added.”
Still, the news wasn’t as dire as it could have been: Two out of three ain’t bad. So, I’m hoping that markets won’t punish mortgage rates too badly.
One caveat on today’s report — and other important ones. Markets don’t always respond in the ways we’ve come to expect. Sometimes, there’s a delayed reaction. Other times, investors might discover something hidden in the minutiae of the report that changes their response. And, occasionally, they just act perversely.
Next week
Just as this week has been dominated by this morning’s jobs report, next week is likely to pivot on Tuesday morning’s consumer price index (CPI).
We’re also due February’s retail sales figures on Wednesday and various inflation and other reports. But the CPI’s likely to rule next week.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 7 report put that same weekly average at 6.88% down from the previous week’s 6.94%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Average mortgage rates just inched lower yesterday. And they were effectively unchanged over the last seven days.
Next week, the direction those rates take will probably hinge almost entirely on Friday’s jobs report and appearances before Congress of the Federal Reserve’s chair. (More on those below.) Of course, nobody knows what they will say. So, once again, I’m forced to say mortgage rates next week could go either way.
Find and lock a low rate
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.27%
7.29%
-0.02
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.68%
6.71%
-0.02
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.11%
7.14%
-0.02
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.59%
6.61%
-0.03
30-year fixed FHA
6.31%
6.98%
-0.08
30-year fixed VA
6.64%
6.75%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.31%
7.39%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Find and lock a low rate
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
There’s no such thing as certainty in future mortgage rates. However, the chances of their gently gliding lower in 2024 are good. Unfortunately, it’s looking unlikely that the happy trend will arrive before late spring, and possibly well into the summer.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are now:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
Next week’s jobs report
Two monthly economic reports vie for the top spot as the most consequential for mortgage rates. One, the jobs report, is due next Friday. And the other, the consumer price index (CPI), is scheduled for the following Tuesday.
We’ll deal with the CPI next week. But let’s look at what the jobs report (formally called the employment situation report) for February might do.
With almost all economic data, mortgage rates tend to fall when the figures in a report are lower than markets are expecting. One exception crops up in the jobs report. It’s better for mortgage rates when the unemployment rate is higher than expected.
Before each report, analysts come up with a consensus forecast. And many investors trade ahead of publication based on the forecast, pricing it into mortgage rates and assets. So, when the forecast is wrong, investors are left scrambling to buy or sell assets as they rebalance their portfolios to reflect reality. The asset that largely determines mortgage rates is a type of bond called a mortgage-backed security (MBS).
So, let’s see what markets are expecting, according to MarketWatch, from the jobs report:
Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs added during the month) — 210,000 in February, down from 353,000 in January
Unemployment rate — 3.7% in February, unchanged from January
Hourly wages — 0.2% in February, down from 0.6% in January
To be clear, mortgage rates tend to fall when economic data are worse than expected. So, we’d like nonfarm payrolls to be below 210,000, hourly wages to have risen more slowly than 0.2%, and the unemployment rate to be higher than 3.7%.
Chances are, the jobs report will on Friday swamp the effects of all the other economic reports next week. But a few of the lesser ones might cause some volatility earlier in the week.
Other important reports next week
The ones most likely to do so are:
January factory orders on Tuesday — Expected to fall to -3.1% from December’s +0.2%
February purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Expected to fall slightly
February ADP employment report for the private sector on Wednesday — Expected to rise to 150,000 from 107,000 in January. Sometimes seen as a bellwether for the jobs report
January job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Wednesday — Openings are expected to dip slightly to 8.9 million from 9 million in December. A helpful peek under the labor market’s hood
Second reading of productivity during the last quarter of 2023 (Q4/23) on Thursday — Expected to be a shade lower than the first reading at 3.1% compared to 3.2%
We’d need to see big variations from the analysts’ consensus forecasts for these to move mortgage rates far or for long. But any of these might push those rates up or down.
The Fed
Although these and other reports routinely move mortgage rates even when inflation and the Federal Reserve are not front of mind, things are different now. Investors tend to view the data through the prism of how they might affect the Fed’s decisions on the timing and scope of future cuts to general interest rates.
One way they can gauge that is by listening to what top Fed officials say in public. And those have nine speaking engagements next week.
Most importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to provide evidence to Congress next Wednesday and Thursday. His voice is highly influential and his testimony could easily move mortgage rates.
The Fed will next decide on rate policy on Mar. 20. Very few expect it to cut general interest rates that day. But Wall Street hopes it will strongly hint at cuts at the May or June meetings of its rate-setting committee.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Monday — Nothing
Tuesday — February ISM PMI. Also factory orders for January
Wednesday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress. Also February’s ADP employment report and January’s JOLTS
Thursday — Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress (again). Plus productivity in Q4/23. And initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 2
Friday — February jobs report
The jobs report is by far the most important publication next week. But watch out, too, for the Fed chair’s appearances before Congress.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
Once again, mortgage rates are unpredictable next week. Whether they move higher or lower will largely depend on the jobs report (which regularly confounds analysts’ forecasts) and on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells Congress.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
Interest — The price of borrowing
Taxes — Specifically property taxes
Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. Although the change was negligible, it was enough to return them to their recent high, first reached last Thursday. However, they’re still way lower than the near-8% levels seen as recently as last October.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely move. However, these early mini-trends often switch direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.36%
7.37%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.76%
6.79%
Unchanged
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.06%
7.09%
Unchanged
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.65%
6.68%
-0.01
30-year fixed FHA
6.42%
7.11%
+0.03
30-year fixed VA
6.71%
6.83%
-0.01
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.18%
7.32%
-0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Many investors now expect the Federal Reserve to implement its first cut in general interest rates in June. And to make only three modest cuts during 2024.
That’s very different from their expectations at the start of this year. Then, they thought the first cut would be in March followed by five more before Dec. 31.
It’s this shift in expectations, from the optimistic to the realistic, that largely explains why mortgage rates have been moving higher in recent weeks. And it’s my top reason for now thinking that mortgage rates probably won’t begin to trend consistently lower until well into the second (April-June) quarter.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady 4.30%. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were falling this morning. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices climbed to $79.34 from $78.19 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,042 from $2,044 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — increased to 79 from 76 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning brought the second reading (of three) of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of last year. And it will likely hardly affect mortgage rates.
Today’s figure showed growth that quarter at 3.2%. Markets had been expecting it to be unchanged from its first reading at 3.3%. And they’d already priced that figure into mortgage rates.
Ten-year Treasury notes edged lower on the news. But mortgage rates didn’t immediately follow, and the difference between the actual figure and market expectations may not be enough to change them.
Tomorrow
We’re due January’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index tomorrow. This is the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. So it certainly has the potential to move markets and mortgage rates, not least because it could influence decisions about the timing and scope of the Fed’s future cuts in general interest rates.
Tomorrow brings four key figures: two for the all-items PCE price index and two for the “core” PCE price index. The core figure is the all-items one after volatile food and energy prices have been stripped out, something that supposedly reveals underlying inflation. The Fed focuses on core figures.
There are two figures for each of these indexes. The first shows how prices moved in the month of January. And the second is the year-over-year (YOY) number, which shows how the same prices moved between Feb. 1, 2023 and Jan. 31, 2024.
Tomorrow’s inflation and other data
Here are what markets are expecting tomorrow (with December’s actual figures in brackets):
January all-items PCE price index — 0.3% (0.2 % in December)
January core PCE price index —0.4% (0.2% in December)
YOY all-items PCE price index — 2.4% (2.6 % in December)
YOY core PCE price index —2.8% (2.8% in December)
You can see that markets are expecting a small increase in most of these measures of inflation. And, because they’re expecting them, they’ll have already priced those into mortgage rates. So, if the figures come in as forecast, mortgage rates might barely move.
However, higher-than-expected figures could push those rates upward. Conversely, lower-than-expected ones could drag them downward.
Other economic reports due tomorrow rarely move mortgage rates far or for long, especially when they’re overshadowed by a major report like the PCE price index.
Ten senior Fed officials have speaking engagements tomorrow and on Friday, all after tomorrow’s report. And those could change mortgage rates if enough of them say things that cheer up or depress investors. But we can only wait to hear their remarks.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Feb. 22 report put that same weekly average at 6.90% up from the previous week’s 6.77%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
First-time home buyers worrying about housing affordability face two obstacles: high home prices and high mortgage rates.
Home prices have continued to rise in over 85% of U.S. cities, and according to a recent Redfin report, a homebuyer must earn $115,000 to afford a typical home, which is $40,000 more than the average American household earns.
One way for this gap to correct is for mortgage rates to go down, but this is something that Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan does not foresee anytime soon.
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Compared to historical mortgage rates today’s rates might not be so bad, Moynihan said. People likely will get used to mortgage rates of 6% to 7%, given that mortgage rates were over 18% in the 1980s during the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting efforts, he told CNBC.
Given this backdrop, Moynihan argues that today’s mortgage rates are more normal than during the unorthodox rate policy in the 15 years after the Great Financial Crisis, saying, “For 15 years, we had no real rate structure, you know, rate structure in the United States and around the world.”
For consumers hoping to catch a break with lower mortgage rates, Goldman Sachs signals caution as well.
Trending: This startup is accepting investors for as little as 25 cents – what’s the catch?
It extended its first expected rate cut past the Fed’s May meeting after Federal Reserve policymakers have pushed back on the market’s expectation of rate cuts this year, citing a need to see more consistent evidence of inflation stabilizing around the 2% target.
However, lower mortgage rates influenced by future Fed cuts aren’t the only way buyers can hope for a lower rate.
U.S. consumers have been able to afford homes by purchasing newly built houses from home builders that have been willing to buy down buyers’ mortgage rates to allow them to afford them. Homebuilders cannot wait for the Fed to lower rates to continue their business in the same way an individual homebuyer might be more willing to wait.
About 75% of homebuilders are offering mortgage rates lower than a homebuyer could get from a traditional financial institution, according to John Burns Research & Consulting. Whether the trend of homebuilders aggressively buying down mortgage rates to encourage home sales is set to continue is up for debate, but one big investor has shaken up his portfolio regarding homebuilder stocks.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has recently been optimistic about the prospects of U.S. homebuilders, disclosing its stake in three major companies in the second quarter of 2023: D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI), NVR Inc. (NYSE:NVR) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN).
However, Buffett switched course quickly on D.R. Horton, which was once his largest homebuilder stock. In the fourth quarter last year, Berkshire Hathaway announced it sold out of D.R. Horton while keeping both NVR and Lennar.
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This article 7% Mortgage Rates Are Here To Stay, Bank of America’s CEO Warns As Warren Buffett Sells Out Of This Homebuilder Stock originally appeared on Benzinga.com
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates jumped up last week following the release of some hotter-than-expected inflation data. Because the economy is still so strong, it’s possible that the Federal Reserve could keep the federal funds rate higher for longer, which would likely keep mortgage rates elevated as well.
Currently, average 30-year mortgage rates are around 30 basis points up from January’s average, according to Zillow data.
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this year, but they likely won’t start falling until we get more data showing that inflation is continuing to slow. Once it looks clearer that inflation is coming down to the Fed’s 2% target, mortgage rates should ease.
Mortgage rates don’t directly follow the federal funds rate, but they’re often pushed up or down based on how investors expect Fed moves to impact the broader economy.
In a speech given at the National Association for Business Economics last Friday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that while the Fed has made a lot of progress in bringing inflation down, it needs “more time and data” to be sure that price growth will continue to slow.
“We will need to resist the temptation to act quickly when patience is needed and be prepared to respond agilely as the economy evolves,” Daly said.
Last week, the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, two popular measures of inflation, both came in hotter than forecasts expected. Markets took this as a sign that we may need to wait longer for the Fed to start cutting rates, and mortgage rates trended up as a result.
At the moment, investors believe the Fed might start cutting rates at its June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But whether this happens depends on the path inflation takes over the next few months.
Mortgage Rates Today
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Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
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Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s interest rates will affect your monthly payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By clicking on “More details,” you’ll also see how much you’ll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
This week’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.77%, according to Freddie Mac. This is a 13-basis-point increase from the previous week.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.12% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. This is a 22-point increase since the week before.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate dramatically to try to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. So far, inflation has slowed significantly, but it’s still a bit above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
The Fed has indicated that it’s likely done hiking rates and that it could start cutting soon. This will likely allow mortgage rates to trend down later this year.
When Will Mortgage Rates Go Down?
Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they’ve been falling in recent months, and are expected to drop further this year.
In January 2024, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% year-over-year. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked last year, which is good news for mortgage rates.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
Average mortgage rates climbed appreciably yesterday, taking them to their highest level in a couple of months. Two different inflation reports were behind last week’s damage.
Mortgage rates might move a little lower next week. That is more of a hope than an expectation. And I’m basing it on nothing more than that little is scheduled for the next seven days, and markets might decide they went too far on Friday. Such delayed reactions happen quite often after sharp movements.
Markets are closed next Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday. And this should mean mortgage rates won’t move that day. So, the usual daily edition of this report won’t appear.
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Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.31%
7.32%
+0.06
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.61%
6.64%
+0.02
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.16%
7.19%
+0.09
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.49%
6.52%
+0.06
30-year fixed FHA
6.52%
7.2%
+0.07
30-year fixed VA
6.62%
6.73%
-0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.15%
7.33%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
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Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
I think there is a strong possibility that this week’s poor inflation reports have delayed my hoped-for downward trend in mortgage rates. And we now may have to wait for it to fully establish itself until May, June or even later.
This is beyond disappointing and means I’ve changed my personal rate lock recommendations to:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
This week
Both this week’s consequential inflation reports showed prices rising more quickly than markets were expecting. And mortgage rates moved higher in response.
That was partly because the bond investors who largely determine mortgage rates hate inflation. But it’s also because markets know that higher prices are likely to delay the Federal Reserve’s first cut in general interest rates and may mean fewer subsequent cuts this year.
Mortgage rates probably won’t move lower in a sustained way until Wall Street is confident that the Fed is set to cut general interest rates imminently. And we may well now have to wait until the summer for that level of confidence.
Of course, I can’t guarantee that mortgage rates will fall at all this year. But I think improvements in the second half of this year are currently the most likely scenario for 2024.
Economic reports next week
We’ve had enough excitement recently and are due a dull week. And, sure enough, we’re about to get one.
The only day on which reports are likely to move mortgage rates is Thursday. And that’s just a couple of February purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P.
PMIs certainly can affect mortgage rates, though rarely appreciably. And I’ll be shocked if next week’s reports more than tweak them.
The only other reports next week are leading economic indicators on Tuesday, and initial weekly jobless claims and existing home sales, both on Thursday. Again, the market that determines mortgage rates typically shrugs these off.
The Fed next week
The Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting committee next Wednesday afternoon. We already know a lot of what was said from the news conference that was hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell immediately after the meeting. And much has changed since then, meaning the minutes have already been overtaken by events.
But investors always pore over these minutes in the hope of gleaning some new insights. And mortgage rates may move if they find anything actionable. I doubt they will, but let’s hope that anything they do uncover pushes those rates lower.
Seven senior Fed officials have speaking engagements next week. And their remarks have the potential to affect mortgage rates.
Whether their speeches are good or bad for those rates will depend on what they say. Ideally, we’d like most of them to talk up a May cut in general interest rates. But that may be wishful thinking.
Besides economic reports and Fed activity, our best hope for lower mortgage rates over the next seven days is a calming in market sentiment. I’m hoping investors will reflect on the current position and feel they overreacted to last week’s inflation reports. Such bounce downs are common after sharp rises but far from inevitable.
Economic reports next week
See above for details about the more important economic reports next week.
In the following list of next week’s reports, only those in bold typically have the potential to affect mortgage rates appreciably. The others probably won’t have much impact unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Monday — Markets closed for Presidents’ Day holiday
Tuesday — January leading economic indicators
Wednesday — Fed minutes
Thursday — February PMIs for the services and manufacturing sectors from S&P. Also January existing home sales. Plus initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 17
Friday — Nothing scheduled
We’re in for a quiet week for economic reports. But mortgage rates could still move on any day except Monday.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Mortgage rates forecast for next week
Mortgage rates might edge lower next week. I think the chances of that are better than further rises. But only slightly better. So, don’t bank on anything.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
A bond market generally determines mortgage and refinance rates. It’s the one where trading in mortgage-backed securities takes place.
And that’s highly dependent on the economy. So mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy’s in trouble. But inflation rates can undermine those tendencies.
Your part
But you play a big part in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
Shopping around for your best mortgage rate — They vary widely from lender to lender
Boosting your credit score — Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
Saving the biggest down payment you can — Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
Keeping your other borrowing modest — The lower your other monthly commitments, the bigger the mortgage you can afford
Choosing your mortgage carefully — Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or another loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can see you winning lower rates.
Remember, they’re not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all your forthcoming homeownership costs when you’re working out how big a mortgage you can afford. So, focus on something called you “PITI.” That stands for:
Principal — Pays down the amount you borrowed
Interest — The price of borrowing
Taxes — Specifically property taxes
Insurance — Specifically homeowners insurance
Our mortgage calculator can help with these.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the size of your down payment, you may have to pay mortgage insurance, too. And that can easily run into three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So, you’ll have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repairs and maintenance costs. There’s no landlord to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you’ll find it hard to forget closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because that effectively spreads them out over your loan’s term, making that rate higher than your straight mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs and your down payment, especially if you’re a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2023
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates are expected to go down in 2024, but so far this year they’ve been stubbornly elevated.
Average 30-year mortgage rates rose last week and remain a bit higher than last month’s average, according to Zillow data.
Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they may lower the federal funds rate three times this year, which should remove some upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to finally trend down. But we’ll need to see more economic data before we get a clearer picture on when the first rate cut might come.
The Fed wants to be sure that it’s successfully tackled too-high inflation before it starts lowering rates. As inflation continues slowing and the overall economy comes into better balance, officials will likely feel more comfortable cutting rates.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the first Fed cut could come in May or June. This means we could see lower mortgage rates by mid-2024 — right around when the majority of homebuyers are entering the market.
If you’re planning to buy a home this year, you may want to wait until a little later in the homebuying season to get started. Those who wait until the early fall should enjoy lower rates than those who buy in the spring.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates increased dramatically for most of 2023, though they started trending back down in the final months of the year. As the economy continues to normalize this year, rates should come down even further.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they’ll likely rise this year as mortgage rates drop.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 3.2% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices. But prices aren’t currently expected to increase as much as they have in recent years.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you’ll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates are nearly flat from last week, and they’ve held surprisingly steady this month even as some of the latest economic data has led investors to tweak their expectations around future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Average 30-year mortgage rates remained around 6.31% this week, down just six points from last week’s average of 6.37%, according to Zillow data.
After dropping substantially toward the end of 2023, mortgage rates are expected to go down further in 2024. But when exactly they’ll start dropping hinges on when the Fed decides to start cutting the federal funds rate.
At its last meeting, the Fed indicated it could cut rates at least three times this year. The Fed first started aggressively raising rates in 2022 to try and tackle too-high inflation. Its efforts have brought inflation down significantly, but they also put a lot of upward pressure on mortgage rates, causing them to skyrocket.
Mortgage rates have already dropped somewhat in anticipation of coming Fed cuts. But they might not drop any further until we get closer to a likely cut. Currently, investors are pricing in a 50% likelihood of the Fed cutting rates at its March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Fed has its first meeting of 2024 at the end of this month. While we most likely won’t see the Fed cut rates at this meeting, we may get some hints regarding when it might. If a rate cut in March seems likely, mortgage rates could trend down a bit. But if officials suggest we might not see a cut until the following meeting in May or later, mortgage rates will likely remain near their current levels.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.60% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This is a six-basis-point decrease from the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.76% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is an 11-basis-point drop from the previous week.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Down?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Despite the latest Consumer Price Index data coming in a bit hot according to Thursday’s report, mortgage rates have been holding steady this week. Average 30-year mortgage rates remained in a tight 6.3%-to-6.45% range, only up a little bit from the previous week.
The hotter-than-expected CPI numbers, which showed that inflation rose 3.4% year over year in December, led many to wonder if this would cause the Federal Reserve to push back its timeline for rate cuts in 2024.
But investors are currently pricing in an almost 80% likelihood that the Fed will make its first cut to the federal funds rate at its meeting in March, up from 64% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If that happens, we could see mortgage rates inch down further.
But Fed officials may also decide that they want to wait a bit longer before making any moves, in which case mortgage rates may generally stay near their current levels for at least the next few months. We’ll likely get a better idea of when to expect rate cuts at the Fed’s next meeting at the end of January.
Most experts believe mortgage rates will go down in 2024, but the timing will depend a lot on the path of inflation and when the Fed starts lowering the federal funds rate.
Mortgage Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Refinance Rates Today
Mortgage type
Average rate today
This information has been provided by
Zillow. See more
mortgage rates on Zillow
Real Estate on Zillow
Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates increased dramatically for most of 2023, though they started trending back down in the final months of the year. As the economy continues to normalize in 2024, rates should come down even further.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.4%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren’t likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they’ll likely rise this year.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 6.7% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 5.7% increase in 2023 and a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market last year, slowing homebuying demand and keeping price growth somewhat moderate. But rates are expected to drop this year, which will likely push home prices even higher. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which only exacerbates the problem.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you’ll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.