Federal Reserve

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WATERTOWN, New York (WWNY) – It was an issue last year, and it’s an issue now. In 2023 mortgage rates were high – 8 percent or more at one time.

It could be a reason why the total number of homes sold in Jefferson County was down last year by nearly 250 compared to 2022, and down 500 from 2021.

In 2023, 1,126 homes were sold; 1,369 in 2022, and 1,626 in 2021.

Current mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed loan are around 7 percent. Last fall it was around 8 percent- some of the highest rates since 2006. Lance Evans with the Jefferson-Lewis Board of Realtors says it can mean fewer people are looking to sell.

“Less choice means first of all the prices are higher. Less choice also means that it’s harder to get a home,” he said.

The COVID pandemic was rough on the housing market but according to Evans, things are steadily improving. In 2023, houses spent less time on the market, and significantly fewer homes were for sale compared to 2022.

“Things are getting a little bit more healthy. It’s still a seller’s market, not a buyer’s market. There’s more buyers than there are sellers,” he said.

One thing that isn’t improving for buyers is the average price of a home. Since 2020, property costs have jumped significantly each year. In 2023, the average cost of a single-family home was nearly $200,000 in our area. As for mortgage rates, Evans says there’s a chance they could go down this year.

“The Fed (Federal Reserve System) has signaled that they may be dropping them later this year. I don’t know how much though since I’m not with the Fed and my crystal ball is cloudy,” he said.

In Thursday night’s State of the Union Address, President Biden proposed a mortgage relief credit that if passed could help first-time home buyers contend with interest rates.

Copyright 2024 WWNY. All rights reserved.

Source: wwnytv.com

Apache is functioning normally

In remarks made Thursday to the Senate Banking Committee this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he expects some U.S. banks to fail in the coming months because of declining values and defaults in their commercial real estate loan portfolios.

According to reporting by multiple outlets, including The Hill, Powell indicated that the risk is tied to small and midsized banks, and there is no systemic risk to the banking sector posed by the potential collapse of major institutions.

“We have identified the banks that have high commercial real estate concentrations, particularly office and retail and other [property types] that have been affected a lot,” Powell said. “This is a problem that we’ll be working on for years more, I’m sure. There will be bank failures, but not the big banks.”

Powell’s remarks came about a month after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed similar concerns to the Senate Banking Committee. Yellen told lawmakers that bank regulators are working to address risks tied to rising vacancy rates and lower valuations for office buildings in major cities.

These stressors are tied to the post-pandemic increase in remote work, as well as higher interest rates that have made it difficult to refinance commercial real estate debt.

“I hope and believe that this will not end up being a systemic risk to the banking system,” Yellen said in February. “The exposure of the largest banks is quite low, but there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments.”

Although commercial mortgage debt is propelling these concerns, the possibility of failure for a federally insured bank has implications for the residential mortgage sector. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), banks held $2.78 trillion in residential mortgage debt as of first-quarter 2023.

Community banks — commonly defined as those with less than $10 billion in assets — accounted for nearly $477 billion (or 17%) of the total debt. And the FDIC reported that home loans are the largest lending segment by dollar volume at more than 40% of community banks.

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is one institution that is facing a “confidence crisis” related to commercial real estate, primarily multifamily loans. NYCB, one of the largest U.S. residential mortgage servicers, received an equity investment of $1 billion earlier this month that is designed to strength the bank’s balance sheet.

In the wake of last year’s failures of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, smaller U.S. banks moved away from commercial real estate lending. Data from MSCI Real Assets showed that after originating a record-high 34.2% of all commercial mortgages in Q1 2023, regional and local banks trimmed their share of originations to 25.1% in Q2 2023. The latter figure represented a 53% year-over-year decline.

Still, small banks are more exposed to commercial mortgage debt than larger banks. Federal Reserve data from September 2023 showed that commercial real estate accounted for an average of 44% of the portfolios at small banks, compared to 13% at the country’s 25 largest banks.

Funding a potential bailout could be another concern for banks. When the FDIC rescued Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023, the price tag was $22 billion. The regulator recouped $16 billion of that through a special assessment on more than 100 of its institutions.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Average mortgage rates sunk across the board from a week ago, according to data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans all receded.

While it’s expected that rates will gradually come down this year, the path might be bumpy.

At its Jan. 31 meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold off changing rates, but could cut rates in the future. At their March 20th meeting, the Fed will update their outlook on rates. Rate fluctuations affect many areas of the economy, including the 10-year Treasury, a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages.

“Where the 10-Year Treasury yield goes, mortgage rates will follow,” says Ken Johnson of Florida Atlantic University. “In roughly the last two months, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 50 basis points. Depending on the source, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 48 basis points. Treasurys’ path remains a coin toss at this point.”

Rates accurate as of March 8, 2024.

These rates are Bankrate’s overnight average rates and are based on the assumptions here. Actual rates listed within the site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Friday, March 8th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.

30-year mortgage trends down, -0.15%

Today’s average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.03 percent, down 15 basis points from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 7.17 percent.

At the current average rate, you’ll pay a combined $667.32 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s down $10.11 from what it would have been last week.

Standard lending practices defer to the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage as the go-to for most borrowers buying a home as it allows the borrower to spread payments out over 30 years, keeping their monthly payment lower.

15-year fixed mortgage rate retreats, -0.12%

The average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.52 percent, down 12 basis points over the last week.

Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost $872 per $100,000 borrowed. That may squeeze your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage would, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much more rapidly.

5/1 ARM dips, -0.04%

The average rate on a 5/1 ARM is 6.31 percent, ticking down 4 basis points from a week ago.

Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage terms that come with a floating interest rate. To put it another way, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These types of loans are best for people who expect to refinance or sell before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be much higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.

While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.

Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.31 percent would cost about $620 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could increase by hundreds of dollars afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.

Jumbo loan interest rate moves lower, -0.07%

The average rate for a jumbo mortgage is 7.04 percent, a decrease of 7 basis points from a week ago. Last month on the 8th, the average rate was greater than 7.04 at 7.23 percent.

At the average rate today for a jumbo loan, you’ll pay $667.99 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $4.72 lower, compared with last week.

Refinance rates

30-year mortgage refinance moves down, -0.14%

The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.05 percent, down 14 basis points over the last week. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was higher at 7.18 percent.

At the current average rate, you’ll pay $668.66 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s down $9.45 from what it would have been last week.

Where are mortgage rates going?

With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates at its March meeting.

“The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year, in my view,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, “but rate cuts of three, four or even five rounds will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved.”

The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.

These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.

What these rates mean for your mortgage

While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.

You could save serious money on interest by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.

“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”

More on current mortgage rates

Methodology

Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).

The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.

Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.

Source: bankrate.com

Apache is functioning normally

President Joe Biden has proposed an annual tax credit that would give Americans $400 a month for the next two years to put towards their mortgages.

Addressing the affordability crisis in the housing market in his State of the Union address on Thursday, Biden said: “I know the cost of housing is so important to you. Inflation keeps coming down, and mortgage rates will come down as well.

“But I’m not waiting. I want to provide an annual tax credit that will give Americans $400 a month for the next two years as mortgage rates come down, to put towards their mortgage when they buy their first home, or trade up for a little more space.”

Home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic, driven by relatively low mortgage rates, high demand and low inventory. At their peak, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. reached $465,000 in June 2022, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).

While the housing market experienced a price correction between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, prices remain historically high, propped up by lingering low supply. In June 2023, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. was $448,000. As of January 2024, this was $409,500, according to data from FRED.

While home prices have stayed high for the past three years, a rise in mortgage rates driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hike rate campaign last year has led to many aspiring homebuyers being completely squeezed out of the market. In December last year, the reserve said that it would have stopped rising rates, but mortgages are yet to significantly come down.

President Joe Biden raises his fingers during a speech in front of the U.S. flag. He said in his State of the Union address that he knows that the “cost of housing is so important”…
President Joe Biden raises his fingers during a speech in front of the U.S. flag. He said in his State of the Union address that he knows that the “cost of housing is so important” to Americans.

High mortgage rates, together with the historic shortage of homes in the U.S.—due to the fact that the country hasn’t built enough homes to meet demand since the housing crash of 2008—have contributed to the current affordability crisis.

In late 2023, J.P. Morgan said that, based on then-current trends, housing affordability could be restored in 3.5 years. Newsweek contacted J.P. Morgan for comment by email on Friday morning.

Biden is now calling on Congress to provide a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to middle-class families who sell their starter home—a home below the median home price of the area where it is located—to another owner or occupant. The White House said that this proposal could help nearly 3 million American families.

On Friday, Biden’s announcement on the tax credit was met with a standing ovation and roaring applause by Democratic lawmakers, while about half of the House stayed seated.

The president also mentioned other measures to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. These included down-payment assistance for first-generation homeowners, tax credit to build more housing, and lowering costs by building and preserving millions of homes.

“My administration is also eliminating title insurance on federally backed mortgages,” Biden told lawmakers on Friday.

“When you refinance your home, you can save $1,000 or more as a consequence. We’re cracking down on big landlords who break antitrust laws by price-fixing and driving up rents. We’ve cut red tape, so builders can get federal financing,” the president said among the cheering of some lawmakers.

Update, 3/8/24, 8 a.m. ET: The headline on this article was updated.

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Source: newsweek.com

Mortgage rates eased slightly this week, enough to reheat the homebuying momentum as the market heads into a traditionally busy season of the year, according to Freddie Mac. 

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.88% for the week ending March 7, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s a drop from the previous week when it averaged 6.94%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.73%. 

The average rate for a 15-year mortgage was 6.22%, down from 6.26% last week and up from 5.95% last year.

The slight drop in borrowing costs led to a nearly 10% jump in mortgage applications, indicating that buyer interest is strong as the market heads into the spring homebuying season, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications survey.

 “Evidence that purchase demand remains sensitive to interest rate changes was on display this week, as applications rose for the first time in six weeks in response to lower rates,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said. “Mortgage rates continue to be one of the biggest hurdles for potential homebuyers looking to enter the market. It’s important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders, so shopping around is essential.”

If you are looking to take advantage of the current mortgage rates by refinancing your mortgage loan or are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

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Market waits for rates to drop 

While the Federal Reserve has said that the plan to reverse interest rate hikes is still in the works, the timeline for when those cuts will begin has been unclear. A reversal in interest rates is crucial in creating more affordability for buyers also dealing with record home price gains. 

However, housing supply is improving, according to a recent Redfin report. New listings rose 13% from a year earlier nationwide during the four weeks ending March 3, the most significant increase in nearly three years. And home prices have also lost some momentum. Roughly 5.5% of home sellers dropped their asking price, the highest share of any February since at least 2015, while the share of affordable homes on the market has increased, according to Realtor.com.

“Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, and since there is no indication that the Fed will set interest rates meaningfully lower in the short term, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall much this year,” Voxtur Analytics Senior Vice President David Sober said in a statement. “If a potential homebuyer is waiting for a lower rate, with house prices still rising overall, they probably won’t get the deal they want anytime soon.”

If you’re looking to become a homeowner, you could still find the best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score.

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Buyers should shop for the best rate

Despite the continued increase in rates, homebuyers could save on borrowing costs by shopping for the best rate with the right lender.

When mortgage rates are high, borrowers can save more by shopping around. Mortgage rate variability more than doubled in 2022 when rates exceeded 7%, according to Freddie Mac research. Borrowers who shopped for five different rate quotes could have saved more than $6,000 over the life of the loan, assuming the loan remains active for at least five years.

“The increase in rate dispersion means that consumers with similar borrower profiles are being offered a wide range of mortgage rates,” Genaro Villa, a macro and housing economics professional for Freddie Mac, said in the research brief. “In the context of today’s rate environment, although mortgage rates are averaging around 6%, many consumers that fit the same borrower profile could have received a better deal on one day and locked in a 5.5% rate, and on another day locked in a rate closer to 6.5%.”

If you are ready to shop for a mortgage loan or are looking to refinance an existing one, you can use the Credible marketplace to compare rates and lenders and get a mortgage preapproval letter in minutes.

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Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

Source: foxbusiness.com

Apache is functioning normally

National mortgage rates were mostly lower compared to a week ago, according to rate data collected by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed and jumbo mortgages each moved lower, while rates for adjustable rate mortgages rose.

While it’s expected that rates will gradually come down this year, it may not be a straight downward path.

At its Jan. 31 meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would hold off changing rates, but could cut rates in the future. The Fed meets again on March 20, where they’ll announce an updated outlook. Rate fluctuations affect many areas of the economy, including the 10-year Treasury, a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages.

“Where the 10-Year Treasury yield goes, mortgage rates will follow,” says Ken Johnson of Florida Atlantic University. “In roughly the last two months, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 50 basis points. Depending on the source, the 30-year mortgage rate is up 48 basis points. Treasurys’ path remains a coin toss at this point.”

Rates last updated March 5, 2024.

These rates are marketplace averages based on the assumptions here. Actual rates displayed within the site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Tuesday, March 5th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.

30-year mortgage retreats, -0.09%

Today’s average rate for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.25 percent, a decrease of 9 basis points over the last week. Last month on the 5th, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was lower, at 7.10 percent.

At the current average rate, you’ll pay principal and interest of $682.18 for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $6.11 lower, compared with last week.

The 30-year mortgage is the most popular option for borrowers. It has a number of advantages. Among them:

  • Lower monthly payment: Compared to a shorter term, such as 15 years, the 30-year mortgage offers lower, more affordable payments spread over time.
  • Stability: With a 30-year fixed mortgage, you lock in a set principal and interest payment, making it easier to plan your housing expenses for the long term. Keep in mind: Your monthly housing payment can still change if your homeowners insurance premiums and property taxes go up or, less likely, down.
  • Buying power: With lower payments, you might qualify for a larger loan amountor a more expensive home.
  • Flexibility: Lower monthly payments can free up some of your monthly budget for other goals, like building an emergency fund, contributing to retirement or college tuition, or saving for home repairs and maintenance.

Learn more: What is a fixed-rate mortgage and how does it work?

15-year mortgage rate eases, -0.06%

The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.70 percent, down 6 basis points from a week ago.

Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost roughly $882 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little more difficult to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much more quickly.

5/1 ARM rate moves higher, +0.12%

The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.31 percent, up 12 basis points over the last week.

Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are mortgage loans that come with a floating interest rate. To put it another way, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These types of loans are best for those who expect to sell or refinance before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be materially higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.

While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.

Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.31 percent would cost about $620 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could increase by hundreds of dollars afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.

Current jumbo mortgage rate retreats, -0.10%

The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.28 percent, down 10 basis points over the last seven days. This time a month ago, the average rate on a jumbo mortgage was lesser at 7.16 percent.

At the average rate today for a jumbo loan, you’ll pay $684.21 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s lower by $6.81 than it would have been last week.

Refinance rates

Current 30 year mortgage refinance rate climbs, +0.01%

The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.25 percent, up 1 basis point from a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower at 7.19 percent.

At the current average rate, you’ll pay $682.18 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s $0.68 higher compared with last week.

Where are mortgage rates heading?

With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates at its March meeting.

“The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year, in my view,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, “but rate cuts of three, four or even five rounds will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved.”

The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.

These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate compared to the trend.

What these rates mean for you and your mortgage

While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.

To help you uncover the best deal, get at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.

“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”

More on current mortgage rates

Methodology

Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).

The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.

Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.

Source: bankrate.com

Apache is functioning normally

Moderation in mortgage rates led to a pickup in demand for residential real estate, but limited inventories across the country hindered actual home sales, the Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that was published Wednesday. 

Several Fed districts reported that a dearth of for-sale inventory contributed to faster home price growth since January. The spring homebuying season, which got underway a bit earlier than usual, was off to a good start in districts like New York and Dallas.

“Should mortgage rates fall, demand for residential real estate would increase, encouraging buyers who had been waiting on the sideline to move forward with home purchases,” according to the Beige Book.

The outlook for future economic growth remained generally positive as economists, market experts and business organization leaders interviewed for the report noted expectations for stronger demand and less restrictive financial conditions over the next six to 12 months.

The Beige Book, which was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco using information gathered on or before Feb. 26, does not reflect the most recent rise in mortgage rates, which have surpassed 7% on HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center.

The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged when policymakers gather on March 19-20. The benchmark rate was last changed in July 2023, when it was raised to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Wednesday that policymakers still need to gain “greater confidence” that the battle against inflation is conquered before cutting interest rates.

“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” Powell said during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”

Following are excerpts of statements on housing conditions from the Federal Reserve districts, drawn from the newly released Beige Book. 

***

Boston: Residential Realtors expressed growing optimism as both property listings and pending home sales increased. Contacts cited modest declines in mortgage rates since last fall as a likely reason for buyers’ increased willingness to enter the market. 

Although inventory levels remained low, listings increased by modest to significant margins around the First District in recent months, lending increased optimism for sales moving forward. Still, contacts emphasized that the number of units for sale stayed far short of what they considered a balanced market, and that a dearth of inventories had contributed to faster house price growth from 2022 to 2023.

New York: Housing markets strengthened as the spring selling season got underway a bit earlier than normal. While inventory generally remained exceptionally low, inventory in New York City has begun to normalize. Many buyers who were waiting for a reprieve in mortgage rates have started to return with the intention of refinancing later. Though mortgage rate lock-in continues to limit new listings, particularly in the New York City suburbs, listings have increased in upstate New York as people have continued to leave the area for warmer climates. 

Still, with such limited inventory, home prices have continued to press higher. Bidding wars were prevalent in the New York City suburbs but have been more limited in upstate New York.

Philadelphia: The inventory of for-sale properties remained extremely low as it has since the pandemic began. But real estate agents noted that higher interest rates have severely limited new listings over the past year and were responsible for the significantly lower level of closings.

New-home builders continued to report steady sales at relatively strong levels, in part because of the lack of existing for-sale homes. Most expect their pipeline of contracts to keep construction busy through the year.

Cleveland: Residential construction contacts reported that demand increased as mortgage rates declined. But real estate agents indicated existing-home sales changed little because inventory remained low. 

Looking ahead, homebuilders and real estate contacts anticipated that demand would increase should mortgage rates fall, encouraging some “customers [who had been] waiting on the sideline” to move forward with home purchases.

Richmond: Respondents noted an increase in listings and buyer activity, but the elevated mortgage rate made buyers more tentative on making home purchase decisions. Sales prices have flattened, but there were still multiple offers on many homes. 

Days on market increased slightly but remained below historic averages. The home construction market was constrained as it was difficult to find land and to receive permitting for new developments. Residential construction costs started to moderate this period.

Atlanta: As mortgage rates retreated from cyclical highs, homeownership affordability improved throughout the district. But home sales in most major markets ended the year well below seasonal norms and remained significantly behind pre-pandemic levels. Potential buyers locked into historically low mortgage rates remained reluctant to move, and migration into the district moderated through 2023, resulting in diminished housing demand. 

Existing-home inventory levels were also suppressed by the “lock-in effect,” resulting in flat to moderate price growth in many markets. Demand for newly constructed homes was boosted by the lack of existing homes and builders. 

Chicago: Residential real estate activity was down moderately, although prices were steady overall. High interest rates and a low supply of existing homes for sale continued to hold back activity. 

St. Louis: Residential real estate sales have slowed since our previous report. Contacts in Arkansas and Tennessee reported that the low end of the market continues to be strong, while contacts in Missouri and Southern Indiana reported higher-end homes selling better. Rental rates for residential real estate have remained unchanged since our previous report. 

Minneapolis: Single-family development remained soft, with modest but spotty increases in some district markets compared with a year earlier. A Minnesota contact said that “consumers quite abruptly stopped spending discretionary income on larger home improvements.”

Dallas: Home sales rose during the reporting period, and contacts noted that the spring selling season was generally off to a good start. Cancellation rates were down, buyer incentives were less prevalent, and builders said they were raising prices slightly in some markets. 

Outlooks were positive, although contacts cited economic and political uncertainty, diminished affordability and tight lending.

San Francisco: Real estate activity rose slightly overall. Residential construction strengthened. Demand for single-family homes picked up slightly, as mortgage rates, though still elevated, moderated a bit in recent weeks. To attract reluctant homebuyers, some homebuilders began offering variable-rate mortgages at below-market interest rates, which revert to market pricing after a year, at which point buyers are reportedly expecting rates to be lower. 

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

Ahead of Friday’s national jobs report, mortgage rates have found stability after increasing for multiple weeks. 

Polly’s average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans was 7.17% on Tuesday, down from 7.24% one week earlier, according to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center. At the same time one year ago, Polly’s 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.82%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.49% on Tuesday, down from 6.5% one week earlier.

The spread between the 30-year fixed rate and the 10-year Treasury rate has increased. According to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, the spread will narrow once inflation is fully under control. It will also take some competition in the mortgage markets to bring the spread down, he said.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has registered three straight weeks of purchase loan application declines as interest rates have risen. On average, it takes 30 to 90 days for higher mortgage rates to impact demand, according to HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami.

“For rates to come down, the labor data needs to get softer,” Mohtashami said.

The forthcoming jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will provide further clarity for mortgage rate trends.

“My primary data line for rates is jobless claims; if jobless claims rise faster, mortgage rates will go lower, regardless of what the Fed does,” Mohtashami said. 

Meanwhile, inventory levels have shown year-over-year growth despite the prevailing high mortgage rates. As of March 1, the available inventory of unsold homes on the market was 19% higher than it was a year earlier, according to data from Altos Reserach.

“Most home sellers are buyers of homes, so the action we are seeing this year is a healthy step in the right direction to get more balance in the housing market,” Mohtashami wrote on Saturday. 

Between Feb. 23 and March 1, inventory rose from 497,608 to 498,339 (up 0.15%), according to Altos Research. Meanwhile, inventory rose year over year by nearly 19%. The most recent inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194 units, while the inventory peak in 2023 was 569,898. For context, active listings during the same time frame in 2015 were substantially higher at 958,304.

Investors’ focus will turn to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s biannual monetary policy update scheduled for Thursday. Powell’s address is anticipated to be his final public statement before the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting on March 19-20.

Source: housingwire.com