Mortgage rates continued to rise for the week ending April 25. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.23% APR, up seven basis points from the previous week’s average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
Rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans have been hovering in the general neighborhood of 7% for the past year-plus, causing considerable pain for home buyers. The rise of mortgage rates in recent years has drawn lots of attention — and ire. As buyers attempt to wrestle their way into affordable homes, it feels like interest rates are definitely the storyline villain. But are rates the actual villain?
Let’s take a little journey back to the last time the U.S. was in a comparable rate environment, roughly winter 2000 to spring 2002. In April 2002, J. Lo is atop the charts. Tiger Woods is becoming the third golfer to win back-to-back Masters tournaments. “The Scorpion King,” starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, is a hit at the box office. And interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are at 7%.
Now, here we are, 22 years later. Jennifer Lopez’s latest album came out in February. Tiger’s playing in his 26th Masters. Dwayne Johnson hasn’t been in any movies yet this year, but The Rock did main event WrestleMania. And 30-year fixed rates? Yeah, they’re back at 7%.
With so much that’s oddly the same, let’s talk about why today’s 7% rates hit different. It’s not just because that slang would have been total nonsense to someone in 2002.
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Since April’s not over yet, we can’t look at median home prices for the month. But we can look at data for March 2024, which just came out. Last month, the median existing home price was $393,500, according to the National Association of Realtors.
You might want to cover your eyes for this one. In March 2002, the median existing home sale price was $158,200, per the NAR.
OK, you might say, but what about inflation? Well, if we take that March 2002 median price and put it in 2024 dollars, we get $276,347. So it’s not just inflation, or that a dollar doesn’t buy as much as it used to. It’s that housing prices, particularly in the 2020s, have risen much faster than inflation overall.
Let’s look at how those prices would translate to costs at these two different points in time. We’ll assume a 7% mortgage rate, a 10% down payment, and to keep things a bit neater, we’ll set aside additional housing costs like property taxes and insurance and just look at principal and interest. At 2002 prices, monthly principal and interest would be $947. At today’s prices? That’ll be $2,356.
It’s not that the U.S. has never seen 7% mortgage interest rates before. It absolutely has, and it’s seen way worse than that — the all-time high was over 18% in 1981. What’s new is the combination of these interest rates and super-high home prices. With the median home price up 18.9% over the last three years, rates may not be great, but it feels like prices are the actual villain.
What’s a home buyer to do? Possibly look to new construction. While NAR data shows sales of existing homes were down in March, U.S. Census Bureau numbers find that sales of new homes were up. New builds may offer a friendlier environment for buyers. Home builders can offer buyer incentives like rate buydowns — and unlike many home sellers, they aren’t faced with also trying to buy a home in this market.
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Before browsing properties, talking with a real estate agent, or researching market trends, the first step to homeownership is to save for a down payment. But this is also one of the more challenging and time-consuming aspects of buying a home. According to the National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 38% of first-time homebuyers said saving for a down payment was the most difficult step in the home buying process. This is understandable given that the majority of buyers (54%) rely on personal savings to fund their down payment. So if you’re a prospective buyer hoping to get into the market soon, how long does it actually take to save for a down payment?
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To find out how long it would take for a median-income household to save for a down payment, Zoocasa analyzed single-family median home prices in 50 cities across the US and calculated what the 15% down payment would be in each. We then analyzed the median household income in each city, according to the most recent US Census Bureau data, and calculated how many years it would take to save for the 15% down payment, assuming they are saving 10% of their annual income. According to the National Association of Realtors®, in 2023 the median percent down payment for all home buyers was 15%.
You can realize your homeownership dreams the fastest in Buffalo, where it takes 4.9 years to save for a 15% down payment of $33,000. Despite having a moderate median household income of $68,014, Buffalo’s affordable single-family home price – around $170,000 below the national median price of $393,500 – helps to push the city to the top of the list. Pittsburgh and Wichita follow, both requiring 5.2 years to save for a 15% down payment of $31,530 and $31,590 respectively.
Of the top 5 cities requiring the least amount of time to save for a down payment, those in Virginia Beach have the highest median household income at $87,544. This means Virginia Beach buyers require just 5.7 years to save for a 15% down payment of $50,250. Oklahoma City rounds out the top 5, where a 15% down payment of $37,500 and a median household income of $64,251 mean that it will take 5.8 years to save for a down payment.
For the majority of cities, however, it will take prospective buyers more than 8 years to save for a down payment. Even in relatively affordable cities like Albuquerque and Houston, where the median single-family home price is below the national median, buyers will need to save for 8.2 years and 8.6 years respectively. This is largely because, with median household incomes hovering around $60,000 in both Albuquerque and Houston, homebuyers need more time to save compared to those in higher-earning cities like Atlanta or Austin.
With that being said, higher incomes don’t always translate to shorter savings times if the home prices are also exceedingly high. For instance, in San Francisco, the median household income is $136,689 but the median home price is $1,386,500 – nearly 10x the annual income of a household. That means homebuyers in San Francisco will need to save for 15.2 years to be able to come up with a 15% down payment of $207,975. Homebuyers in Boston, Miami, and Los Angeles will require similarly long savings timelines of 15.1 years, 14.7 years, and 14.4 years respectively.
But not all big cities require a long time to save for a down payment. Thanks to its high median household income of $116,068, those in Seattle only need to save for 8.2 years for a 15% down payment of $95,058. Similarly, in Chicago, it would take a median-income buyer 7.1 years to save for a 15% down payment, and in Philadelphia, it would take just 6.5 years.
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For many aspiring homebuyers, the dream of homeownership has become increasingly difficult to attain in recent years. A combination of soaring home prices and rising mortgage rates has made purchasing a property significantly more expensive, stretching budgets to their limits. For example, the median home price nationwide hit $417,700 in Q4 2023 — up from an average of $327,100 in Q4 2019. And, 30-year fixed mortgage rates currently average 7.30%, more than double what they were just a few years ago.
That said, it can still make sense to buy a home right now, even with today’s unique challenges looming. After all, high rates generally mean buyer competition is down, so it could be a good time to make your move. And, while you may be thinking about waiting for rates to fall, there’s no guarantee that will happen in the near future. Plus, you always have the option to refinance your mortgage loan at a lower rate if mortgage rates do eventually decline.
But getting approved for a mortgage in today’s unique landscape can prove challenging even for borrowers with strong credit and stable employment. Lenders have understandably grown more cautious in the face of economic headwinds, making the application process more rigorous. So what should you do if your mortgage loan application is denied by a lender?
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Was your mortgage loan application denied? 9 steps to take
If your mortgage application has been denied, it’s important not to lose hope. There are steps you can take to improve your chances of approval:
Request the denial reasons in writing
By law, lenders must provide you with the specific reasons for denial in writing upon request. This documentation is essential, as it will allow you to precisely identify and address the problem areas that led to the rejection. Never assume you know the reasons; get them directly from the lender so you know what to focus on instead.
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Review your credit report
Mistakes and inaccuracies on credit reports are surprisingly common. If your mortgage loan application is denied, obtain your free annual credit reports from all three major bureaus (Experian, Equifax and TransUnion) and scrutinize them carefully. If you find any errors, dispute them with the credit bureaus to have them corrected or removed, as this could significantly boost your approval chances.
Work to improve your credit
For many buyers, a subpar credit score is the roadblock to mortgage approval. If a low credit score causes your mortgage application to be denied, take proactive steps like paying all bills on time each month, reducing outstanding balances on credit cards and other loans and avoiding opening new credit accounts in the short term. Improving your credit profile can rapidly enhance your mortgage eligibility.
Increase your down payment
Many lenders favor borrowers who can make larger down payments upfront. Not only does this lower the overall mortgage loan amount, but it demonstrates your commitment and ability as a borrower. Options to boost your upfront contribution include tapping employment bonuses, tax refunds, gifts from relatives or simply saving more aggressively.
Find a co-signer
If your own income and credit aren’t adequate for mortgage approval, applying jointly with a creditworthy co-signer could be the solution. A spouse, parent or other party with strong finances can boost the overall application through their positive profile. However, it’s imperative that all parties understand and accept the legal obligations before proceeding.
Explore government-backed loans
While conventional mortgages from banks and lenders typically have stringent requirements, loans insured by government agencies tend to have more flexibility. If you meet the eligibility criteria for an FHA, VA or USDA loan based on income limits, military service or rural location, these could represent a pathway to homeownership.
Find ways to increase your income
If you’re denied due to a high debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, finding ways to boost your monthly earnings could be the deciding factor. Options to do this include requesting a raise from your current employer, finding a higher-paying job or establishing steady side income from a second job or freelance work.
Change lenders
Not all mortgage lenders evaluate applications through the same underwriting models or with the same risk appetite. While one bank may deny you, another lender could give you a green light after reviewing the exact same financial information. So, if you’re denied a mortgage loan with one lender, it makes sense to shop around, ask questions and get multiple assessments to find the right fit.
Wait and apply again
Mortgage approvals are based on a specific snapshot of your finances at one point in time. If rejected, sometimes the best recourse is to press pause, work on improving weak areas over several months and then reapply with an updated financial profile for a fresh evaluation.
The bottom line
A denied mortgage can be disheartening, but don’t give up hope. With diligent preparation, an openness to explore alternative pathways and a willingness to make difficult but necessary changes, you may still have options to secure financing and make your homeownership dreams a reality. Ultimately, perseverance and knowledge are key when faced with today’s uniquely challenging housing market.
Angelica Leicht
Angelica Leicht is senior editor for CBS’ Moneywatch: Managing Your Money, where she writes and edits articles on a range of personal finance topics. Angelica previously held editing roles at The Simple Dollar, Interest, HousingWire and other financial publications.
Hawaii, renowned as a tropical paradise, showcases a diverse array of landscapes, from lush rainforests and cascading waterfalls to pristine beaches and volcanic landscapes. Its cities, such as Honolulu with its vibrant urban energy and Hilo as a gateway to the island’s natural wonders, offer residents unique and enriching living experiences. However, living in Hawaii comes with its own set of challenges. In this ApartmentGuide article, we’ll explore both the pros and cons of residing in the Aloha State, providing you with valuable insights to help you make informed decisions about living in Hawaii.
Renting in Hawaii snapshot
1. Pro: Rich cultural heritage
Hawaii’s rich cultural heritage is deeply rooted in its Polynesian, Asian, and Western influences, offering residents a diverse tapestry of traditions, arts, and cuisines. From ancient Hawaiian rituals and storytelling to vibrant festivals like the Merrie Monarch Hula Festival residents have ample opportunities to immerse themselves in the state’s unique cultural identity.
2. Con: High cost of living
Hawaii’s idyllic setting comes at a price, with the state consistently ranking among the highest in the nation for cost of living. From groceries to housing, residents face inflated prices due to the state’s reliance on imported goods and limited land availability. For example, cities like Honolulu experience high housing costs, with a median home price of $497,500 and average rent prices for a one-bedroom standing at $1,800.
3. Pro: Lush landscapes
Hawaii’s lush landscapes, characterized by verdant rainforests, cascading waterfalls, and volcanic craters, create a paradise-like environment for residents to explore and enjoy. Islands like Kauai, known as the “Garden Isle,” boast breathtaking natural beauty, with landmarks such as Waimea Canyon and the Na Pali Coast offering unparalleled vistas.
4. Con: Geographic isolation
Hawaii’s geographic isolation, situated thousands of miles away from the nearest continent, presents both pros and cons for residents. While the islands’ remote location offers a sense of escapism and tranquility, it also results in higher shipping costs for goods and limited access to certain resources. Residents may experience longer wait times for imported goods and face logistical challenges when traveling to and from the mainland.
5. Pro: Warm climate year-round
Hawaii’s warm tropical climate provides residents with pleasant temperatures and sunny skies throughout the year, creating an ideal environment for outdoor activities and leisure. Whether basking in the sun on Waikiki Beach, strolling through botanical gardens in Hilo, or hiking along the Kalalau Trail on Kauai’s rugged Napali Coast, residents can enjoy the outdoors year-round without the need for heavy winter clothing.
6. Con: Natural disaster risk
Living in Hawaii means residing in a region prone to various natural disasters, including hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. The state’s volcanic activity, exemplified by Kilauea on the Big Island, poses ongoing risks to nearby communities, with lava flows and volcanic gases threatening homes and infrastructure. Additionally, Hawaii’s susceptibility to hurricanes during the Pacific hurricane season and the potential for seismic events underscore the need for evacuation plans.
7. Pro: Health and wellness
Hawaii’s emphasis on health and wellness is evident in its abundance of wellness retreats, yoga studios, and holistic healing practices, catering to residents seeking balance and rejuvenation. Additionally, the state’s natural beauty and outdoor lifestyle promote physical activity and mental well-being, with activities like surfing, yoga, and hiking popular among locals.
8. Con: Limited job market
Hawaii’s economy, heavily reliant on tourism and hospitality, results in a limited job market with fewer opportunities compared to mainland states. While industries like hospitality and retail dominate the job market, competition for positions can be fierce.
9. Pro: Outdoors recreation
Hawaii’s diverse landscapes offer a playground for outdoor enthusiasts, with various recreational activities to enjoy year-round. Residents can surf world-class waves on the North Shore of Oahu, snorkel with sea turtles in the crystal-clear waters of Molokini Crater, or embark on a scenic hike along the Kalalau Trail on the Na Pali Coast.
10. Con: Tourist crowds
Hawaii’s popularity as a tourist destination brings millions of visitors to the islands each year, contributing to overcrowding at popular attractions and beaches. Residents often contend with congested roads, crowded beaches, and difficulty finding parking in tourist hotspots like Waikiki and Lahaina. Additionally, the influx of tourists can lead to increased noise pollution, strain on local infrastructure, and disruptions to daily life for residents in affected areas.
11. Pro: Relaxed pace of life
Hawaii’s laid-back lifestyle and “island time” mentality encourage residents to embrace a relaxed pace of life, where stress is minimized, and priorities shift to enjoying life’s simple pleasures. From leisurely beach days to evening strolls along oceanfront promenades, residents savor moments of tranquility amidst the beauty of the islands.
12. Con: Limited shopping selection
Hawaii’s geographic isolation and small population result in a limited shopping selection, particularly for specialty goods and luxury items. Residents may find themselves with fewer choices and higher prices for certain products compared to mainland states. While larger cities like Honolulu offer more diverse shopping options, residents in rural areas may need to travel long distances or rely on online shopping for specific items not readily available locally.
Methodology : The population data is from the United States Census Bureau, walkable cities are from Walk Score, and rental data is from ApartmentGuide.
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) has submitted a letter to President Joe Biden, urging him to decrease federal spending and to take action on affordable housing issues.
“A particularly acute concern to Nevadans is the housing market, which is reeling from the combined effects of high inflation and interest rates,” Lombardo said in the letter dated April 11. “Nevadans need more accessible housing, but the rising costs of materials and labor and high interest rates are creating a barrier for Nevadans to achieve their dream of owning a home.”
Lombardo cited data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that compares the median home price in Nevada at the time Biden took office ($342,995) to the figure as of January 2024 ($460,000), and illustrated increases in monthly payment obligations for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) borrowers.
“Utilizing a 3.5% down payment through a [FHA] loan (principal/interest only) in January 2021, the monthly payment on a median home would have been $1,363.00 at the market interest rate of 2.82%,” Gov. Lombardo said in his letter. “Today, that same median home would be $2,808.00 per month at the market interest rate of 6.51% — which is over double the monthly cost to Nevada families.”
Combating the increase in housing costs requires “swift action,” and Lombardo noted that in a prior letter to the president he requested that Biden “make more federal lands available for housing development, so that Nevada can increase its inventory and address shortages to ultimately drive down costs,” he said.
But Biden has recently given voice to concerns he and others have about the national housing market, including in states like Nevada. Last month, Biden gave a speech in Las Vegas where he reiterated elements of his housing plan that were first detailed in the March 7 State of the Union address.
These include a first-time homebuyer tax credit that would offer qualifying beneficiaries $400 a month for two years, adding that this would serve to have the effect of lowering their mortgage rate by roughly 1.5%.
While not specifically mentioning a provision to turn over federal lands for housing development, Biden did say that the White House had “cut red tape so more builders can get federal financing for their new projects” in a move designed to assist states’ congressional delegations to take action on housing issues.
“A record 1.7 million new housing units are under construction nationwide right now because of it. In fact, today, my administration reported that single-family housing starts are at the highest level they’ve been in nearly two years, and my new plan would create 2 million affordable homes — including tens of thousands right here in Nevada,” Biden said.
Housing has become a key issue for many voters headed into the fall election cycle, where both houses of Congress and the White House are up for grabs. The Biden administration first telegraphed housing as a key issue in a briefing prior to the State of the Union speech, and Republicans have largely focused on inflation’s impact on the housing market to rebut the president’s proposals.
While there are some indications of bipartisan cooperation on housing issues despite fundamental disagreements on other hot-button issues, Congress is historically divided. The leadership in the House of Representatives is facing a new, looming challenge, compounding issues that stem from the narrow divide between the parties in the chamber.
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As we head into peak home-buying season, signs of life have begun to spring up in the housing market.
Even so, still-high mortgage rates and home prices amid historically low housing stock continue to put homeownership out of reach for many.
Moreover, the National Association of Realtors agreed to a monumental $418 million settlement on March 15 following a verdict favoring home sellers in a class action lawsuit. Still subject to court approval, the settlement requires changes to broker commissions that will upend the buying and selling model that has been in place for years.
Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Elevated mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and record-low housing stock are the perennial weeds that experts say hopeful home buyers can expect to contend with this spring—and beyond.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, in an emailed statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast.”
Despite ongoing affordability hurdles, Fannie Mae forecasts an increase in home sales transactions compared to last year. Experts also anticipate a slower rise in home prices this year compared to recent years, but price fluctuations will continue to vary regionally and depend strongly on local market supply.
U.S. home prices declined in January for the third consecutive month due to high borrowing costs, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But prices year-over-year jumped 6%—the fastest annual rate since 2022.
Chief economist at First American Financial Corporation Mark Fleming predicts a “flat stretch” ahead.
“If the 2020-2021 housing market was too hot, then the 2023 market was probably too cold, but 2024 won’t yet be just right,” Fleming said in his 2024 forecast.
Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?
For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.
“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”
And, of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off—which experts say is imminent despite rates edging back up toward 7%. For the week ending April 11, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.88%, according to Freddie Mac.
However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.
“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.
He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.
Nonetheless, Kuba Jewgieniew, CEO of Realty ONE Group, a real estate brokerage company, is optimistic about a recovery this year.
“[W]e’re definitely looking forward to a better housing market in 2024 as interest rates start to settle around 6% or even lower,” says Jewgieniew.
NAR Settlement Rocks the Residential Real Estate Industry
Following years of litigation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers.
The plaintiffs claimed that the leading national trade association for real estate brokers and agents “conspired to require home sellers to pay the broker representing the buyer of their homes in violation of federal antitrust law.”
Though the landmark settlement is subject to court approval, most consider it a done deal.
The settlement requires NAR to enact new rules, including prohibiting offers of broker compensation on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings. The rule is set to take effect in mid-July, once the settlement receives judge approval.
Moreover, sellers will no longer be required to pay buyer broker commissions and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with their buyer clients.
NAR denies any wrongdoing and maintains that its current policies benefit buyers and sellers. The organization believes it’s not liable for seller claims related to broker commissions, stating that it has never set commissions and that commissions have always been negotiable.
How Will the New Rules Impact the Buying and Selling Process?
Per the settlement’s terms, the costs associated with buying and selling a home are set to change dramatically.
“The primary things that will change are the decoupling of the seller commission and the buyer commission in the MLS,” says Rita Gibbs, a Realtor at Realty One Group Integrity in Tucson. “It’s gonna cause some chaos.”
While sellers will no longer be able to offer broker compensation in the MLS, there’s no rule prohibiting off-MLS negotiations. Because of this, Gibbs suspects buyers and sellers will continue offering broker compensation off the MLS.
The Department of Justice confirmed it will permit listing brokers to display compensation details on their websites. However, buyer agents will need to undergo the tedious task of visiting countless broker websites to find who’s offering what.
Michael Gorkowski, a Virginia-based real estate agent with Compass, is also trying to figure out how to manage the potential ruling.
“We often work with buyers for many months and sometimes years before they find exactly what they’re looking for,” Gorkowski says. “So in a case where a seller isn’t offering a co-broker commission, we will have to negotiate that the buyer pays an agreed-upon commission prior to starting their search.”
The Changes Will Impact These Home Buyers Most
“In the short term, it is absolutely going to injure buyers, especially FHA and VA buyers,” Gibbs says. “With rare exception, these buyers are not in a position to pay for their own agent.”
Gibbs says that if sellers don’t offer compensation, many buyers who can’t otherwise afford to pay a broker will choose to go unrepresented.
Gorkowski notes that veterans taking out VA loans face a unique challenge under the new rules. “[P]er the VA requirements, buyers cannot pay so it must be negotiated with the seller for now.”
As a result, NAR is calling on the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to revise its policies prohibiting VA buyers from paying broker commissions. Even so, there’s skepticism that the federal government will be able to implement changes in time for the July deadline.
Gibbs and Gorkowski are among the many agents especially concerned about first-time home buyers. After July, first-time and VA buyers will be required to sign a buyer-broker agreement stating that they will compensate their broker—but Gibbs says many won’t have the means to do so.
In this situation, agents would likely only show buyers homes where sellers are offering compensation.
“This is a very troubling situation,” Gorkowski says.
Housing Inventory Forecast for 2024
With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates or unwilling to sell due to high home prices, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family.
“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.
Housing stock remains near historic lows—especially entry-level supply—which has propped up demand and sustained ultra-high home prices. Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.
Yet, some hopeful housing stock signs have begun to sprout:
Existing inventory is showing signs of loosening as impatient buyers and sellers have begun to accept the reality of mortgage rates oscillating between 6% and 7%.
Home-builder outlook also continues to get sunnier, trending back up amid declining mortgage rates and better building conditions.
The most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which tracks builder sentiment, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, surpassing a crucial threshold with an increase from 48 to 51 in March. A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.
At the same time, new single-family building permits ticked up 1% in February—the 13th consecutive monthly increase—according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales
Though some housing market data indicates signs of growth are in store this spring home-buying season, persistently high mortgage rates may hinder activity from fully flourishing.
Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.
Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales came to life in February, shooting up 9.5% from the month before, according to the latest data from the NAR. Sales dipped 3.3% from a year ago.
Experts attribute the monthly jump to a bump in inventory.
“Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report.
Existing inventory rose 5.9%—logging 1.07 million unsold homes at the end of February. However, there are still only 2.9 months of inventory at the current sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market falling between four and six months.
Meanwhile, existing home prices continue to soar to unprecedented heights, reaching $384,500, which marks the eighth consecutive month of yearly price increases and a February median home price record.
New Home Sales
Sales of newly constructed single-family houses ticked down by a nominal 0.3% compared to January, but outpaced February 2023 sales by 5.9%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.
Amid a high percentage of homeowners still locked in to low mortgage rates, home builders have been picking up the slack.
“New construction continues to be an outsized share of the housing inventory,” said Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in an emailed statement.
Sturtevant notes that declining new home prices are coming amid a recent trend of builders introducing smaller and more affordable homes to the market.
The median price for a new home in February was $400,500, down 7.6% from a year ago.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Pending Home Sales
NAR’s Pending Homes Sales Index rose 1.6% in February from the month prior even as mortgage rates approached 7% by the end of the month. Pending transactions declined 7% year-over-year.
A pending home sale marks the point in the home sales transaction when the buyer and seller agree on price and terms. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator of future closed sales.
The Midwest and South saw monthly transaction gains while the Northeast and West saw declines due to affordability challenges in those higher-cost regions.
“While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said Yun, in the report.
Ongoing Affordability Challenges Could Throw Cold Water on Spring Home-Buying Hopes
Though down from its 2023 high of 7.79%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2024 remains well over 6% amid rising home values. As a result, home buyers continue to face affordability challenges.
According to data from its first-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Affordability Report, property data provider Attom found that median-priced single-family homes remain less affordable than the historical average in over 95% of U.S. counties.
For one, the data uncovered that expenses are eating up more than 32% of the average national wage. Common lending guidelines require monthly mortgage payments, property taxes and homeowners insurance to comprise 28% or less of your gross income.
At the same time, home prices and homeownership expenses continue to outpace wage growth.
Consequently, the latest expense-to-wage ratio is hovering at one of the highest points over the past decade, according to the Attom report, despite some slight affordability improvements over the last two quarters.
“Affording a home remains a financial stretch, or a pipe dream, for so many households,” said Rob Barber, CEO at Attom.
Pro Tips for Buyers and Sellers
Here are some expert tips to increase your chances for an optimal outcome in this tight housing market.
Pro Tips for Buying in Today’s Real Estate Market
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, offers this expert advice to aspiring buyers:
Know your budget. Instead of focusing on price, figure out how much you can afford as a monthly payment. Your monthly housing payment is influenced by the price of the home, your down payment, mortgage rate, loan term, home insurance and property taxes.
Be flexible about home size and location. Perhaps your budget is sufficient for a small home in your perfect neighborhood, or a larger, newer home further out. Understanding your priorities and having some flexibility can help you move quickly when a suitable home enters the market.
Keep an eye on the market where you hope to buy. Determine the area’s available inventory and price levels. Also, pay attention to how quickly homes sell. Not only will you be tuned in when something great hits the market, you can feel more confident moving forward with purchasing a well-priced home. A real estate agent can help with this.
Don’t be discouraged. Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions you’ll ever make. Approaching the market confidently, armed with good information and grounded expectations will take you far. Don’t let the hustle of the market convince you to buy something that’s not in your budget, or not right for your lifestyle.
Pro Tips for Selling in Today’s Real Estate Market
Gary Ashton, founder of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage, has this expert advice for sellers:
Research comparable home prices in your area. Sellers need to have the most up-to-date pricing intel on comparable homes selling in their market. Know the market competition and price the home competitively. In addition, understand that in some price points it’s a buyer’s market—you’ll need to be prepared to make some concessions.
Make sure your home is in top-notch shape. Homes need to be in great condition to compete and create a strong “online curb appeal.” Well-maintained homes and attractive front yards are major features that buyers look for.
Work with a local real estate agent. A real estate agent or team with a strong local marketing presence and access to major real estate portals can offer significant value and help you land a great deal.
Don’t put off issues that require attention. Prepare the home by making any repairs or improvements. Removing any objections that buyers may see helps focus the buyer on the positive attributes of the home.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2024?
Despite some areas of the country experiencing monthly price declines, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.
“[T]he record low supply of houses on the market protects against a market crash,” says Tom Hutchens, executive vice president of production at Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions, a non-QM lender.
Moreover, experts point out that today’s homeowners stand on much more secure footing than those coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with many borrowers having substantial home equity.
“In 2024, I expect we’ll see home appreciation take a step back but not plummet,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
This outlook aligns with what other housing market watchers expect.
“Comerica forecasts that national house prices will rise 2.9% in 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an emailed statement.
Divounguy also notes that several factors, including Millennials entering their prime home-buying years, wage growth and financial wealth are tailwinds that will sustain housing demand in 2024.
Even so, with fewer homes selling, Dan Hnatkovskyy, co-founder and CEO of NewHomesMate, a marketplace for new construction homes, sees a price collapse within the realm of possibility, especially in markets where real estate investors scooped up numerous properties.
“If something pushes that over the edge, the consequences could be severe,” said Hnatkovskyy, in an emailed statement.
Will Foreclosures Increase in 2024?
In February, total foreclosure filings were down 1% from the previous month but up 8% from a year ago, according to Attom.
“These trends could signify evolving financial landscapes for homeowners, prompting adjustments in market strategies and lending practices,” said Barber, in a report.
Lenders began foreclosure on 22,575 properties in February, up 4% from the previous month and 11% from a year ago. Meanwhile, real estate-owned properties, or REOs, which are homes unsold at foreclosure auctions and taken over by lenders, spiked year-over-year in three states: South Carolina (up 51%), Missouri (up 50%) and Pennsylvania (up 46%).
Despite foreclosure activity trending up nationally and certain areas of the country seeing notable annual increases in REOs, experts generally don’t expect to see a wave of foreclosures in 2024.
“Foreclosure activity is still only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels … and isn’t likely to be back to 2019 numbers until sometime in mid-to-late 2024,” says Sharga.
The biggest reasons for this, Sharga explains, are the strength of the economy—we’re still seeing low unemployment and steady wage growth—along with excellent loan quality.
Massive home price growth in homeowner equity over the past few years has also helped reduce foreclosures.
Sharga says that some 80% of today’s homeowners have more than 20% equity in their property. So, while there may be more foreclosure starts in 2024—due in part to Covid-era mortgage relief programs phasing out—foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions should remain below 2019 levels.
When Will Be the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2024?
Buying a house—in any market—is a highly personal decision. Because homes represent the largest single purchase most people will make in their lifetime, it’s crucial to be in a solid financial position before diving in.
Use a mortgage calculator to estimate your monthly housing costs based on your down. But if you’re trying to predict what might happen next year, experts say this is probably not the best home-buying strategy.
“The housing market—like so many other markets—is almost impossible to time,“ Divounguy says. “The best time for prospective buyers is when they find a home that they like, that meets their family’s current and foreseeable needs and that they can afford.”
Gumbinger agrees it’s hard to tell would-be homeowners to wait for better conditions.
“More often, it seems the case that home prices generally keep rising, so the goalposts for amassing a down payment keep moving, and there’s no guarantee that tomorrow’s conditions will be all that much better in the aggregate than today’s.”
Divounguy says “getting on the housing ladder” is worthwhile to begin building equity and net worth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Will declining mortgage rates cause home prices to rise?
Declining mortgage rates will likely incentivize would-be buyers anxious to own a home to jump into the market. Expect this increased demand amid today’s tight housing supply to put upward pressure on home prices.
What will happen if the housing market crashes?
Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2024 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Is it smart to buy real estate before a recession?
If you’re in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it won’t matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. However, if you are looking to buy real estate as a short-term investment, it will come with more risk if you buy at the height before a recession.
Utah, with its breathtaking landscapes and booming economy, has become a prime destination for renters seeking adventure and opportunity. From the iconic red rock formations of Arches and Zion to the snow-capped peaks of the Wasatch Range, Utah offers unparalleled natural beauty and outdoor recreational opportunities. Whether you’re contemplating a move to Provo or the beautiful Salt Lake City, this ApartmentGuide will dive into the pros and cons of living in Utah so you can get an idea on whether this state is right for you.
Renting in Utah snapshot
1. Pro: Outdoor recreation
Utah is a paradise for outdoor enthusiasts, offering a diverse landscape for hiking, skiing, and mountain biking. The state is home to five national parks, including Zion and Arches, providing stunning backdrops for adventure and exploration. Moreover, Utah’s extensive network of state parks, wilderness areas, and scenic byways offer endless opportunities for camping, fishing, rock climbing, and wildlife viewing, ensuring there’s always something new to discover for nature lovers of all skill levels.
2. Con: Air quality concerns
Parts of Utah, particularly the Salt Lake Valley, struggle with air quality due to temperature inversions in the winter, leading to high levels of pollution. This can affect health and reduce visibility of the state’s beautiful landscapes. Additionally, poor air quality during inversions can exacerbate respiratory issues and pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing conditions.
3. Pro: Strong economy
Utah boasts a strong and diverse economy driven by thriving industries such as technology, outdoor recreation, healthcare, and tourism. With a growing population, the state offers ample job opportunities and economic stability for residents. Additionally, Utah’s business-friendly environment, favorable tax policies, and skilled workforce attract businesses and entrepreneurs.
4. Con: Water scarcity
As a desert state, Utah faces challenges with water scarcity. The growing population and agricultural demands put pressure on water resources, leading to concerns about sustainability and conservation efforts. Additionally, climate change exacerbates these challenges, as changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures affect water availability and usage.
5. Pro: Cultural events and festivals
Utah hosts a variety of cultural events and festivals throughout the year, including the renowned Sundance Film Festival in Park City. These events attract global attention and offer unique experiences for residents and visitors alike. Moreover, Utah’s diverse cultural scene encompasses art galleries, museums, performing arts venues, and culinary festivals that celebrate the state’s rich heritage.
6. Con: Harsh winter weather
Utah experiences harsh winter weather characterized by heavy snowfall, icy conditions, and bitterly cold temperatures, particularly in mountainous regions and higher elevations. These winter conditions can create hazardous driving conditions and disrupt daily life, requiring residents to be prepared for extreme weather events such as snowstorms and blizzards.
7. Pro: Healthy lifestyle
Utah promotes a healthy lifestyle through its abundance of outdoor recreational opportunities, including skiing, hiking, and biking, which encourage physical activity and fitness. The state’s scenic landscapes, and emphasis on outdoor living contribute to residents’ overall well-being and quality of life.
8. Con: Earthquake risk
Utah faces a notable earthquake risk due to its location along the Wasatch Fault and other active fault lines. The state experiences seismic activity, with the potential for earthquakes of varying magnitudes, posing risks to infrastructure, property, and public safety.
9. Pro: Affordable cost of living
Utah offers an affordable cost of living compared to many other states, with reasonable housing prices in cities like Provo, and Ogden. For example, the median home price in Ogden is $375,00o and rent for a one-bedroom is $1,299, making housing more attainable for residents.
10. Con: Seasonal allergies
Due to its diverse climate and vegetation, Utah can be challenging for individuals with seasonal allergies. Pollen from trees, grasses, and wildflowers can lead to discomfort for allergy sufferers, especially in the spring and early summer. Moreover, Utah’s varying elevations and microclimates create different allergy seasons across the state.
11. Pro: Educational opportunities
Utah offers excellent educational opportunities, with several universities and a strong public school system. The state is committed to educational excellence and innovation, providing a solid foundation for lifelong learning. Additionally, Utah’s investment in education extends beyond traditional classrooms, with initiatives that promote STEM education, vocational training, and workforce development.
12. Con: Limited public transportation
Utah faces challenges with limited public transportation options, particularly in rural and suburban areas, where access to reliable transit services may be scarce. Major urban centers like Salt Lake City have established light rail and bus systems, but coverage may be insufficient for residents in outlying areas like Provo which has a transit score of 33 making it a car-dependent city.
Methodology : The population data is from the United States Census Bureau, walkable cities are from Walk Score, and rental data is from ApartmentGuide.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates have moved gradually over the past few weeks, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching 7.20% APR today, after standing at 7.45% a month ago, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
Rates moved upward just before last week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve. While the Fed kept interest rates steady, Chairman Jerome Powell indicated in a press conference Wednesday that the board still expected to cut interest rates three times in 2024 despite “seasonal effects” causing a temporary rise in inflation.
Last month’s home prices rose 9.5% month-over-month for February, the largest increase in a year. The median home price increased 5.7% from last year, to $384,500, the National Association of Realtors reported on Thursday.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.20%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.46%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 6.99%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.10%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.20%
7.19%
+0.01
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.46%
6.48%
-0.02
5/6 ARM
6.99%
6.98%
+0.01
7/6 ARM
7.17%
7.14%
+0.03
10/6 ARM
7.20%
7.22%
-0.02
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.10%
7.09%
+0.01
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.93%
6.90%
+0.03
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.98%
6.98%
0.00
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Friday, March 29, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.01
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.20%. Since the same time last week, the rate is up, changing +0.01 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $678.79 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying more compared to last week when the average rate was 7.19%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.02
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.46%, a decrease of-0.02 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.46% will cost approximately $868.91 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.48% last week, you would’ve paid $870.01 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are up, +0.01
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.99%, an increase of+0.01 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 6.99% will cost approximately $664.63 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are up, +0.01
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.10%, an increase of+0.01 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$678.79
$678.11
+$0.68
15-Year Fixed Rate
$868.91
$870.01
-$1.10
5/6 ARM
$664.63
$663.96
+$0.67
7/6 ARM
$676.76
$674.73
+$2.03
10/6 ARM
$678.79
$680.14
-$1.35
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$672.03
$671.36
+$0.67
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$660.61
$658.60
+$2.01
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$663.96
$663.96
$0.00
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
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3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have cooled significantly over the past several months. After the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 8% last October, it ended 2023 closer to 7%. In fact, the average for Q4 2023 was 7.3%.
Analysts with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) both project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year.
Fannie Mae economists expect rates to drop more quickly, falling below 6% by Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the MBA’s forecast for Q4 2024 is 6.1% and 5.9% for Q1 2025.
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More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here. Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
Housing demand reached a new level of enthusiasm during the pandemic, with homebuyers benefitting from extremely low mortgage rates. From the summer of 2020 until much of 2021, average 30-year mortgage rates stayed under 3%. However, as more and more buyers jumped into the real estate market, months of inventory began to plummet and home prices surged. According to the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the national average sales price in the US grew from $383,000 in Q1 2020 to a peak of $552,600 in Q4 2022 – a 44.3% increase in less than two years.
So if you purchased a home during the pandemic, how much is it worth now? To find out, Zoocasa analyzed median home prices in 30 major US cities from January 2020, 2021, and 2022, and compared them with the 2024 median price to see how much they’ve changed over the last 4, 3, and 2 years.
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Median single-family home prices were sourced from each city’s respective real estate board and are from January of each year. Average 30-year fixed rates were sourced from Freddie Mac and are from the first week of each month. The national average sales price in the US for each quarter was sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Average Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States [ASPUS], retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
In 14 of the 30 real estate markets we analyzed, the median home price increased by more than $100,000 from 2020 to 2024. In those four years, Californian homes increased the most in value. San Diego and San Francisco homes bought in 2020 appreciated by $265,000 and $247,000 respectively. Los Angeles homebuyers also built a significant amount of equity, with the median home price rising by $211,500 to $750,000 in 2024.
Outside of California, 2020 home purchases in Boston and Miami experienced significant price growth, both increasing by more than $200,000 in four years. For homebuyers in Miami in 2021, the value of their homes experienced the second-highest increase over three years, at $170,000, just below San Diego’s increase of $195,000. But Miami isn’t the only city in Florida where home prices have grown substantially from 2020. In Tampa and Jacksonville, home values have increased by $151,500 and $129,900 since 2020, and since 2021 they have risen by $115,000 and $95,919 respectively.
Other cities where home values increased by more than $100,000 in four years include Denver, Nashville, Dallas, and Salt Lake City. Buyers who bought a home in one of these cities in 2021 also benefited from sizable price appreciation – with home values rising by $100,000 or more in three years.
Though 2020 and 2021 pandemic buyers experienced a significant increase in their home values, some homebuyers who purchased a home in 2022 – when interest rates started climbing – have yet to see equity build. From January 2022 to January 2024, home values dropped in San Francisco by $71,000 and in Brooklyn, they dropped by $51,000. 2022 homebuyers are currently down in six other cities: Washington DC, San Antonio, Memphis, New Orleans, St. Louis, and Salt Lake City. But this doesn’t mean homebuyers in those cities won’t build equity. According to the National Association of Realtors®, in 2023 the median time buyers expected to stay in their home was 15 years. This gives the average homeowner plenty of time for their home to appreciate, and with interest rates coming down, competition will rise and push home prices up once again.
The vast majority of pandemic buyers are in the green, even if they bought their home in 2022. With some of the highest median home prices in the country, it comes as no surprise that Boston, Miami, San Diego and Los Angeles lead the way for 2-year price increases – all up by $50,000 or more. Not every city experienced home price increases of those heights, however. 2022 homebuyers in Philadelphia and Tucson built home equity, but values increased by just $1,250 and $2,500 respectively in two years.
If you’re looking to find an affordable home this spring, give us a call! We can answer any questions you have about your local market and help you navigate the home-buying process.
Unstable borrowing conditions and a lack of affordable properties kept homeownership out of reach for many Americans in 2023. However, as the spring buying season approaches and signs that the market is recovering emerge, buyer sentiment is shifting. According to the National Association of Realtors®, national existing home sales in January 2024 were up year-over-year by 1.3%. Housing supply is also improving, with national inventory up by 3.1% year-over-year and 2% month-over-month.
These positive changes are setting the stage for an active spring market in the US. But as competition increases, so do home prices. The national median price for a single-family home in the US increased by 5.1% year-over-year in January to $379,100. This begs the question: where can prospective homebuyers find the best deals this spring?
To better understand where homebuyers can find pockets of affordability, Zoocasa analyzed home prices in 50 metropolitan statistical areas across the country to determine which are below the national median and where the most growth is happening. Median single-family home prices were sourced from the National Association of REALTORS® and are from Q4 2023, except the national median home price which is from January 2024.
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It’s usually said that the further outside of an urban center you go, the more affordable the home price. But of the 33 metropolitan statistical areas with a median home price below the national median, 15 have populations above 2 million, and five have populations above 5 million. The largest urban center with a median home price below the national median is Chicago, IL with a median home price of $343,300 in Q4 of 2023. Despite the city experiencing year-over-year price growth of 6.2%, Chicago’s median home price is still $35,800 below the national median.
Of the 50 markets we analyzed, Cleveland, OH came out on top for affordability. Cleveland’s median home price of $190,700 is an impressive $188,400 below the national median and is one of the few areas on our list where the median home price dropped from last year. Other markets where the median home price fell from last year include Myrtle Beach, SC, Houston, TX, San Antonio, TX, and Memphis, TN. Alabama’s capital, Montgomery, was the only other market on our list besides Cleveland with a median home price below $200,000. Homebuyers here can snag a home for approximately $185,700 below the national median.
It’s worth noting that five out of the six markets that experienced year-over-year price growth of more than 9% have home prices below the national median. These markets include Rochester, NY, Hartford, CT, New Haven, CT, Oklahoma City, OK, and Cincinnati, OH. This means that homebuyers of all price ranges, including those purchasing lower-priced homes, can still expect to build a significant amount of equity.
Markets that have experienced significant year-over-year price growth also present good investment opportunities. For instance, single-family homes in Philadelphia, PA have experienced year-over-year price growth of 7.2% and are still $20,100 below the national median price, making this sought-after city a good option for first-time investors. Kansas City, MO is an emerging market that would make a great first-time investment location. The city garnered a lot of media attention last year thanks to the city’s football team and frequent Taylor Swift visits, resulting in the median home price rising by 5.9% year-over-year. Despite its growing popularity, the median home price in Kansas City remains one of the lowest on our list at $315,800.
Homebuyers with their hearts set on a particular destination, especially one of the largest and most sought-after cities in the US, would benefit from considering smaller markets relatively close to their dream location. While the Big Apple might be out of reach for the average buyer, with a median home price of $659,200, New York’s second and third-largest cities still maintain affordable prices. Buffalo and Rochester have median home prices of $243,500 and $230,500 respectively. This is nearly $150,000 less than the national median, compared to New York City, where the median home price is more than $280,000 above the national median.
Though San Francisco, CA, and Los Angeles, CA have notoriously high home prices, at $1,251,000 and $884,400 respectively, California homebuyers still have affordable options. At just $26,600 above the national median, Fresno’s median home price is one of the more affordable options in California. But for savvy buyers looking for a deal in California, Bakersfield presents the best option with a median home price of $11,800 below the national median.
In Florida, motivated buyers on the hunt for affordable prices will have to look outside of the vibrant Miami market, which has a median home price more than $200,000 above the national median. Tampa’s median home price exceeds the national median by just $30,900, while Daytona Beach and Tallahassee offer more affordable housing, with median prices $16,700 and $57,100 below the national median, respectively.
Planning to enter one of these markets this spring? It’s important to speak with a local realtor who is familiar with your local real estate market. Give us a call today to discuss your home-buying plans.