Rising mortgage rates this week cast further doubt on meaningful rate cuts happening soon for homebuyers.
The average rate for a 30-year loan inched past 7% this week, settling at 7.07% on Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
A separate measurement tracking weekly average rates rose to 6.82% from 6.79%, Freddie Mac reported.
Homebuyers continued to pull back as affordability challenges worsened and consumer optimism diminished over how soon and how much interest rates could ease this year. Waiting for loan rates to decline is now the top reason buyers say they are not actively searching for a home.
“Elevated mortgage rates have been a persistent market challenge, holding back first-time homebuyers and repeat homebuyers alike, albeit for different reasons,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “In order for rates to decline meaningfully and sustainably, inflation needs to be convincingly on a path to the Fed’s 2% target.”
Read more: Mortgage rates remain around 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Homebuyers stay on the sidelines
Homebuyer affordability continued to decline, with the US median mortgage payment increasing 2% monthly in February and 6% annually to nearly $2,200, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Rising mortgage payments across the US — driven by either higher interest rates or higher home prices, or both — have considerably cooled buyers’ demand.
The volume of home-purchase applications stayed unchanged this week and dropped 13% compared to the same week one year ago, MBA data showed.
“Challenging affordability conditions and low housing supply are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines this spring,” Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president, said. “The eventual, expected decline in rates in the coming months will hopefully spur new activity in the housing market.”
Expectations of a rate decline have been waning, though. Investors are now betting the Fed will cut rates by less than a percentage point instead of the 1.5% forecast at the beginning of 2024.
Despite the market shift, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently assured the public that inflation is easing and the central bank is still expected to cut rates at “some point” this year.
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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Even moving into a similarly priced home across the street would mean a 40% average jump in principal and interest payments – about $500 extra per month – according to Walden. This “lock-in effect” heavily discourages homeowners from selling and is a significant reason behind the persistently low inventory of homes for sale. “You’d be … [Read more…]
To qualify, applicants must meet specific criteria, the Atlanta, Georgia-based firm outlined, including: Closing the loan with Citizens Trust Bank Income not exceeding $150,000 Maximum of $25,000 in assets The property must be owner-occupied Borrower contribution of at least $500 Completion of a homebuyer education course Can be combined with other approved down payment assistance … [Read more…]
The average monthly mortgage payment for a home purchase rose in recent weeks, even as the tight housing market shows signs of loosening.
Payments increased 10% year-over-year to an all-time high of $2,721 for the four weeks ended March 24, Redfin said on Thursday morning.
The Mortgage Bankers Association also released its February Purchase Applications Payment Index the same day, and found the median disbursement increased by $50 from January, to $2,184. That figure is a $123 increase from February 2023.
The PAPI value increased 2.4% to 170.7 in February from 166.8 in January. For the same month last year, the index was 169.7, a 1.1% increase, with the year-over-year change attributed to a 4.8% rise in median income besides the 6% rise in payments.
Rates sticking around the 7% range is a contributing factor, the MBA said.
“Challenging affordability conditions and low housing supply are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines this spring,” said Edward Seiler, associate vice president, housing economics, and executive director of the Research Institute for Housing America, in a press release. “The eventual, expected decline in rates in the coming months will hopefully spur new activity in the housing market.”
However, Redfin pointed out that during the period, new listings were up 15% from the four weeks ended March 24, 2023, the most in nearly three years. The total number of homes is 6% higher, the biggest increase in approximately one year.
“High mortgage rates aren’t deterring buyers as much as they were last year; a lot of people want to get in now before prices go up more,” said Redfin agent Rachel Riva based in Miami, in a press release. “All of my recent listings have gone under contract in under 10 days, and most of them have received multiple offers.”
Buyers are dealing with elevated mortgage rates in a number of ways, Riva pointed out. “Some are making high down payments to lower their monthly payments, and some are willing to take on a high rate now in hopes of refinancing when and if rates come down.”
Median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the first quarter compared with historical averages in more than 95% of U.S. counties that Attom Data Solutions had enough data to analyze.
Meanwhile, major expenses on those homes were 32.3% of the average national wage in the first quarter, several points above common lending guidelines.
As bad as that data sounds, it is actually a quarter-to-quarter improvement for both, although worse than one-year prior, Attom said.
The portion of average wages nationwide required for typical mortgage payments including property taxes and insurance remains up almost 3 percentage points from one year ago and 11 points higher from early in 2021.
“The picture for home buyers is brightening a little again as affordability measures have improved for the second quarter in a row,” said Rob Barber, Attom’s CEO, in a press release.
Even though the prospect of owning a home remains a financial stretch or even a pipe dream, for many households, with mortgage rates coming down from high points near 8% and home prices growing only by modest amounts, “it’s gotten a bit easier for average wage earners to afford a home so far this year,” Barber said. “The upcoming Spring buying season will say a lot about whether home prices remain stable enough for this trend to continue.”
In only 13 counties nationwide were home prices more affordable than the historical average, but even that needed to be taken with a grain of salt because two of those locales were New York County, also known as Manhattan, and San Francisco County, whose entirety is the city limits. Those are traditionally among the highest priced markets in the U.S.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates have moved gradually over the past few weeks, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching 7.20% APR today, after standing at 7.45% a month ago, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
Rates moved upward just before last week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve. While the Fed kept interest rates steady, Chairman Jerome Powell indicated in a press conference Wednesday that the board still expected to cut interest rates three times in 2024 despite “seasonal effects” causing a temporary rise in inflation.
Last month’s home prices rose 9.5% month-over-month for February, the largest increase in a year. The median home price increased 5.7% from last year, to $384,500, the National Association of Realtors reported on Thursday.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.20%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.46%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 6.99%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.10%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.20%
7.19%
+0.01
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.46%
6.48%
-0.02
5/6 ARM
6.99%
6.98%
+0.01
7/6 ARM
7.17%
7.14%
+0.03
10/6 ARM
7.20%
7.22%
-0.02
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.10%
7.09%
+0.01
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.93%
6.90%
+0.03
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.98%
6.98%
0.00
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Friday, March 29, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.01
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.20%. Since the same time last week, the rate is up, changing +0.01 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $678.79 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying more compared to last week when the average rate was 7.19%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.02
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.46%, a decrease of-0.02 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.46% will cost approximately $868.91 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.48% last week, you would’ve paid $870.01 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are up, +0.01
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.99%, an increase of+0.01 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 6.99% will cost approximately $664.63 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are up, +0.01
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.10%, an increase of+0.01 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$678.79
$678.11
+$0.68
15-Year Fixed Rate
$868.91
$870.01
-$1.10
5/6 ARM
$664.63
$663.96
+$0.67
7/6 ARM
$676.76
$674.73
+$2.03
10/6 ARM
$678.79
$680.14
-$1.35
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$672.03
$671.36
+$0.67
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$660.61
$658.60
+$2.01
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$663.96
$663.96
$0.00
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
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3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have cooled significantly over the past several months. After the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 8% last October, it ended 2023 closer to 7%. In fact, the average for Q4 2023 was 7.3%.
Analysts with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) both project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year.
Fannie Mae economists expect rates to drop more quickly, falling below 6% by Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the MBA’s forecast for Q4 2024 is 6.1% and 5.9% for Q1 2025.
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More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here. Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
Homeownership affordability problems do not end once the consumer closes on the property, as nearly nine out of every 10 said the true cost is higher than expected, a Clever Real Estate study said.
Nearly three in five respondents, 58%, said they had buyers’ remorse, and among those that bought their property in 2020 (when the pandemic-fueled boom started) or later, the regret rate was over two-thirds at 68%. Purchasers before that time, 54% said they had buyers’ remorse.
The average homeowner spends $17,958 annually on expenses; if the borrower stays in the property for the entire 30-year term of a typical mortgage, that adds up to $538,740, Clever RE and its Real Estate Witch online publication found.
About 36% of homeowners believe owning their home has negatively affected their finances, with 23% stating it’s negatively impacted their mental health.
Had they known the total cost ahead of time, 60% of respondents claimed they would have made a different homebuying decision.
The top two choices about what they would have done differently is that they would have purchased a property that requires less maintenance, or negotiated a better price or contingencies, both at 21%. Waiting until mortgage rates fall was cited by 14%; respondents could choose more than one response.
Those who bought a home in 2023 or 2024 were more likely to say they overpaid than those who bought before 2010, 46% to 16%. From the entire sample, about 26% of homeowners say they overpaid.
Just under half stated they are spending more money owning a home than they would have on renting, supporting some recent studies on the costs of both. Meanwhile 28% stated if they had their druthers, they would prefer to return to renting.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents had regrets about their purchase, with 15% stating their mortgage payments are too high and 13% saying their interest rate is too high; more than one answer was possible for this question.
Clever/Real Estate Witch did an online survey of 1,000 U.S. homeowners on Feb.1 and 2. Each respondent answered 25 questions.
A separate study from Redfin released on Thursday found a buyer must earn $75,849 annually to afford the typical starter home as of February, up 8.2%, or $5,767 over a year earlier.
Different data Redfin put out that same day found for all homes, the average monthly payment on a purchase for the four weeks ended March 24 was at an all-time high.
“The most affordable homes are much smaller and often require a lot of work to make them habitable — which makes them cost even more,” Elijah de la Campa, senior economist at Redfin, said in a press release. “Today’s most affordable homes are still hard for the average American to afford, let alone the average first-time buyer who tends to put less money down in exchange for higher monthly payments.”
Young aspiring homeowners are increasingly reliant on the bank of mom and dad to help make their purchase, new research finds.
Over a third of Generation Z and millennials who plan to buy a home in the near term are expecting to use, in part, gifts from family to help with a down payment, according to a report by Redfin. The 36% share is twice as large as it was just five years ago, the online real-estate brokerage said.
In a 2019 millennial-only poll, 18% said they were turning to family for assistance, The portion increased by only 5 percentage points to 23% last year.
Despite the surge in family support, Gen Z and millennial buyers are also trying to do their part as well in most cases. Approximately 60% of consumers in the same age demographics are regularly saving income to fund a down payment, with 39% also taking on second jobs to help them reach their homeownership goals, Redfin found.
Further down the list of likely funding options was the sale of stock investments, mentioned by 29%, while 22% said they would consider drawing early from retirement funds.
The rising share of consumers using family gifts for a leg up points to a larger affordability issue that makes even a starter-home purchase beyond reach for many, according to Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.
“Because housing costs have soared so much, many young adults with family money get help from mom and dad even when they have jobs and earn a perfectly respectable income,” she said in a press release.
“The bigger problem is that young Americans who don’t have family money are often shut out of homeownership. Many of them earn a perfectly good income, too, but they aren’t able to afford a home because they’re at a generational disadvantage; they don’t have a pot of family money to dip into.”
Heightened attention on housing challenges, particularly related to the difficulty in coming up with down payment and closing-cost funding, has turned much of the mortgage industry’s attention toward buyer assistance resources in the past several months. Last year, housing agencies across the country added 135 new programs, a 6% increase from 2022, according to data from Down Payment Resource.
But consumers are sometimes not fully aware of the benefits offered. To address some of the information gap, Freddie Mac also unveiled a portal last fall to help aspiring homeowners and their mortgage lenders find down payment assistance they might qualify for.
As of January this year, just under 2,300 of such programs were available across the country, provided by a combination of groups, including state housing agencies, municipalities and nonprofits, Down Payment Resource said.
In March, two financial institutions announced their plans to up homebuyer assistance efforts. Atlanta-based Citizens Trust Bank launched a new down payment grant program, offering a maximum of $2,000 to eligible borrowers that can help reduce initial costs of the home purchase.
Meanwhile, the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago said it would increase the amount made available to each of its Midwestern member institutions to $1 million for funding of their own homebuyer grant programs. The new total represents a 43% increase from the 2023 limit of $700,000, while the overall budget for the Chicago bank’s down payment assistance projects is now over $39 million. Eligible first-time mortgage borrowers will have access to up to $10,000 of financial aid when financing through a member bank or their partners.
Despite recent slowing in home price growth, the current level of housing costs is the No. 1 reason young consumers are opting not to buy in today’s market, Redfin said. In its survey, 43% of the segment not in the market cited it as a factor, followed by 34% who said the inability to save for a down payment deterred them. The challenge of keeping up with mortgage payments and perceived high interest-rate levels was each noted by 29%.
Housing affordability looks likely to rise in the public eye this year, with President Biden seemingly ready to make it a talking point during campaign season. In his recent State of the Union address, Biden called for mortgage tax credits, title insurance alternatives and up to $25,000 in down payment assistance in order to help address affordability challenges the country faces.
Housing issues could play a role in the final presidential election result. In a previous Redfin analysis, its researchers found a majority of U.S. households indicating home affordability might influence who they vote for this year.
Affiliate links for the products on this page are from partners that compensate us (see our advertiser disclosure with our list of partners for more details). However, our opinions are our own. See how we rate mortgages to write unbiased product reviews.
In 2024, homebuyers can expect lower mortgage rates, higher home prices, and a lot more competition.
Hopeful buyers should start preparing as early as possible by saving money and paying down debt to improve credit scores.
Look into affordable mortgage programs and down payment assistance to boost affordability.
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After watching mortgage rates hit two-decade highs and inventory plummet last year, many hopeful homebuyers are eager to get off the sidelines and into a home.
While 2024 is expected to be a better year for the housing market in many respects, a lot of buyers are still going to struggle to find affordability. If you’re planning to buy a house this year, here’s what you need to know about housing market predictions in 2024, and how you can prepare.
Home price predictions 2024
Experts generally expect home prices to increase in 2024.
Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up, even as mortgage rates peaked near 8% and homebuying demand plummeted last year. Demand is expected to increase this year, so even if home prices were to drop in 2024, they likely wouldn’t fall enough to significantly improve affordability on their own.
Mortgage rate predictions 2024
Here’s where we’ll probably find more affordability in 2024: mortgage rates. Though they’re still relatively high, experts predict we’ll see mortgage rates go down in 2024. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is generally expected to end up near 6% by the end of the year.
Fannie Mae believes 30-year fixed rates could inch down to the mid-to-upper 6% range during the buying season — which typically lasts from spring through early fall — and reach 6.4% by the end of 2024
The MBA’s forecast is slightly less aggressive, predicting that mortgage rates could hover in the 6.3% to 6.6% range during the peak homebuying season before falling to 6.1% to close out 2024
NAR predicts rates will be in the mid-6% range for the homebuying season and drop to 6.1% in the last quarter of the year
Whether mortgage rates actually trend down in 2024, and by how much, depends in part on the path the Federal Reserve takes in its fight against inflation.
The Fed has indicated that it may start cutting the federal funds rate this year, which would remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to fall more substantially. But inflation has remained a bit higher than expected in recent months, so we might have to wait longer for a Fed rate cut. This means mortgage rates might not fall in time for the peak homebuying season.
Will the housing market crash in 2024?
Because home prices have increased so dramatically in recent years, doomsayers believe that the housing market is in a bubble, and it’s only a matter of time before it bursts and the market crashes. But it’s actually pretty unlikely that will happen.
One of the main reasons we’re unlikely to see the housing market crash in 2024 has to do with housing inventory. The US simply does not have enough homes to meet demand, which is keeping prices steady.
Of course, no one has a crystal ball. If demand were to plummet, home prices could start falling. A severe recession could cause this to happen, for example. But even with a recession, it’s not a given that the housing market would crash as a result.
When will the housing market crash?
The fact is, it’s hard to predict a housing market crash. Right now, the conditions aren’t right for one — even though demand is low, supply remains even lower. And demand is expected to improve this year, while supply will likely remain a chronic problem for years to come.
What this means for 2024 homebuyers
If you’re hoping to buy a house this year, you’ll want to start planning now. This year is likely to be better for buyers than 2023 was in many ways, but it’s also going to be more challenging when it comes to prices and competition.
Lower mortgage rates will undoubtedly improve affordability for borrowers, but with that will come increased demand. This will keep home prices high and likely push them up even further. Finding a home in your price range may become even trickier, and you may need to make a lot of offers on homes before you get one accepted.
How to prepare to buy a house in 2024: 5 tips
Here’s what you should be doing now to prepare for homeownership in 2024.
1. Get your finances ready now
Because home prices are likely to remain high, you’ll want to take advantage of lower mortgage rates by making sure you get the lowest rate you can.
One of the faster methods to get your credit score up is to lower your credit utilization. This will also decrease your debt-to-income ratio, which is another factor mortgage lenders look at when considering what rate to give you.
J.R. Russell, head of direct to consumer mortgage lending at Citi Mortgages, says homebuyers should consider paying off credit card balances to improve their scores ahead of the 2024 homebuying season.
“If you’re trying to pay off or pay down some credit cards, start with the cards or credit lines with the highest interest rates first,” Russell says. “Then, pay off the balances that are smallest. The good news is that if you do this, you’ll improve your debt load and your credit score.”
2. Look for affordable mortgages and other first-time homebuyer assistance
The key to affording homeownership for many buyers in 2024 will be utilizing mortgages geared toward first-time homebuyers and combining them with grants or other forms of down payment assistance.
“If you’re not sure that your down payment will be sufficient, take time to understand all of the available products that you may be eligible for through the FHA or VA, your bank, or other local institutions,” Russell says. “These programs may grant you access to down payment assistance and low-to-moderate income programs, among other game-changing resources.”
Conventional loans allow down payments as low as 3%, while FHA loans allow 3.5% down payments. USDA and VA loans allow no down payment.
Look into lenders that offer special mortgage programs that come with additional assistance. Rocket Mortgage, for example, offers a ONE+ mortgage that allows borrowers to put down just 1%, with the lender providing a 2% grant.
Bank of America mortgages, another popular lender for first-time buyers, offers a couple of different forms of down payment assistance.
3. Time your purchase right
There probably won’t be a single “best time” to buy in 2024, because that depends on each buyer’s priorities — so it’s important that you figure out yours.
If getting the lowest rate possible is most important to you, you’ll want to wait until later this year to buy, possibly until the second half of 2024. But if you’re looking to avoid competition, buying within the next few months might be a better bet. Plus, you could always plan to refinance later on as rates drop.
4. But don’t rush
“If rates do start to moderate and the market does seem to become more favorable to buying in 2024, it will likely stay this way for a while,” Russell says. “If that’s the case, I encourage you to take your time! Don’t put pressure on yourself to make any potentially hasty decisions on what may be your biggest asset and the largest financial decision of your life.”
Though it’s still a while away, forecasts generally expect mortgage rates to continue falling in 2025. If you don’t feel ready to buy by the time the 2024 buying season rolls around, there’s nothing wrong with waiting a bit to continue saving and working on your credit.
5. Build your savings
Whether you’re padding your mortgage down payment savings or contributing to your emergency fund, tucking away some extra cash now is vital if you plan on buying a home soon.
When you buy a house, you’ll need enough cash to cover both your down payment and closing costs, which can amount to between 3% and 6% of the loan amount. While many mortgage programs allow low down payments, the more you can put down, the better your interest rate will likely be. Plus, offers with larger down payments are often more attractive to home sellers, giving you a competitive edge in what will likely be a tough market.
Homeownership is also often more expensive than many first-time buyers realize, especially in the first year. Having some extra money set aside for unexpected costs will help ensure you don’t go into debt when your first big housing expense comes along.
Housing market predictions 2024 FAQs
Experts expect mortgage rates to drop in 2024, and 30-year fixed rates could end the year closer to 6%.
There probably won’t be a housing recession in 2024 based on current expectations, as limited inventory is likely to push prices up further. Expect to see higher prices, lower mortgage rates, and more buyers in 2024.
In general, 2024 should be a better year to buy a house compared to 2023, but it will still be tough due to increased competition and higher prices.
Mortgage rates rose this week as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note inched up. As of Monday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was about 4.25%, according to Tradeweb, up from 3.86% at the end of last year.
As a result, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.16% on Tuesday, up from 7.07% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.53%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.51% on Tuesday, up from 6.5% one week earlier.
“The 10-year yield is up a few basis points this week as the market gets ready to digest the next big piece of economic data: Friday’s PCE inflation report. As the 10-year yield moves higher, mortgage pricing should move with it, but the mortgage spreads are having a good week, which is encouraging news,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said.
“The following week, we have jobs week with four economic labor reports for the bond market to focus on.”
As of March 22, there were 513,000 single-family homes unsold on the market, up 1.1% from the week prior and up 24% from the same week one year ago. At the same period last year, inventory was declining, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
“We’ll finish the year with over 600,000 homes on the market unless rates reverse and fall quickly,” Simonsen wrote on Monday.
More inventory on the market means that more sales can take place. But, on the other hand, it can also mean that demand is weakening.
“The longer mortgage rates stay higher, the more inventory will grow closer to the old levels,” Simonsen wrote. “If you’re a homebuyer and you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you swoop in for a deal, recognize that even slightly lower rates will spur demand more than supply so inventory will start falling and selection and competition will be worse.”
In addition, we can see the price reductions ticking up each week. They aren’t at a scary level, people are buying homes, but it’s notably softer on pricing than last year at this time.
Mortgage rates seem to have finally settled down. The Fed met last week and we escaped dramatic changes in the markets. I was worried that we might come out of that meeting with a spike in mortgage rates but that didn’t materialize so we got lucky.
I like to point out that consumers are more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates than to the absolute levels, and since rates are now basically unchanged for the month, just easing down from the early March peak of 7.2%, sellers and buyers are tip-toeing back into the market.
As a result, we continue to see the signals that home sales volume will grow this year and prices will be mostly flat. The price appreciation signals last year were stronger than they are now.
Housing inventory
The available inventory of unsold homes continued to climb last week.
There are now 513,000 single family homes unsold on the market.
That’s 1.1% more than last week and 24% more than a year ago.
Last year, inventory was still declining in March. Now it’s on the rise.
Inventory will cross over 2020 levels by July. We’ll finish the year with over 600,000 homes on the market unless rates reverse and fall quickly.
Three takeaways from the inventory data now:
1. Growing inventory this year means more sales can happen. More sellers means more sales will happen.
2. Year-over-year inventory growth points to weaker demand and is one of the signals that home prices won’t climb this year. We currently have 24% more homes on the market than a year ago.
3. The longer mortgage rates stay higher, the more inventory will grow closer to the old levels. If you’re a homebuyer and you’re waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you swoop in for a deal, recognize that even slightly lower rates will spur demand more than supply so inventory will start falling and selection and competition will be worse.
New listings
Each week this spring we’ve been tracking the new listings volume. Last week we saw just over 60,000 new listings added to the inventory with another 17,000 new listings / immediate sales. In total, new listings data is 14% more than last year. April is looking good for home sales growth.
A year with 5.5 to 6 million home sales would need probably 80,000 new listings of single family homes right now. And we have 60,000, so there simply aren’t enough homes for sale to hit the big sales numbers, but the lid is being lifted. We can see obvious growth.
Pendings
As supply increases, the rate of sales is starting to pick up compared to a year ago. We can measure home sales in real time by tracking all the homes that moved to contract pending status this week. These “pendings” aren’t yet sold. They’ll spend 30 or 40 days in contract and the sales will mostly close in April or May.
There were 67,000 new contracts for single family homes this week compared to only 62,000 in the same week last year. There were another 15,000 condos into contract. This annualizes to only 4.3 million home sales, without any seasonal adjustment. So obviously the rate of sales is still pretty slow, which makes sense given the high mortgage rates. But the sales rate is climbing. The rate of new contracts is 8% more than last year but still 15% fewer than March of 2022, when buyers were desperately trying to get their deals done as rates were rising.
It looks like April will see decent home sales growth over 2023 but won’t overtake 2022 sales volumes until after July of this year. July of 2022 was when supply and demand fell precipitously. If mortgage rates stay stabilized in the upper 6s, these trends look durable to me.
Home prices
Last week, all the current price measures actually had pretty healthy gains. When we look at all the homes on the market, the median price is now $439,000. That is up a fraction this week and just a little bit higher than last year. Home prices climb this time of year before peaking in June as the best inventory, the most new listings, and the best demand is in the market. This week’s price increase is right in the normal range for the end of March.
The price of new listings took a healthy jump this week, up 1% to $424,900. That’s nearly 4% higher than a year ago. It’s also to be expected that the price of new listings each week in the spring lurch higher. There is no signal of big home price changes in this leading indicator, but it’s nice that this move is up.
Four years ago in March 2022, we were at the start of the pandemic lockdown and we could see the price of the new listings drop very quickly. That price decline only last for three weeks though. And the price of the new listings was one of the important factors that showed us very quickly how there would be no housing crash as a result of the crisis.
The price of the homes going into contract across the country are holding up but also not accelerating. The median price of the new contracts this week was $389,900 — that’s up a fraction from last week and 4% more than a year ago. Home prices peaked in May of 2022 and didn’t surpass that during last year’s spring season. I expect we’ll hit new all-time highs for home prices in the next month or so, assuming these current trends hold.
Price reductions
Most of the signals in the data last week were pretty optimistic. If there is one factor to temper than optimism, it’s the price reductions. The percent of homes on the market with price cuts from their original list price ticked up to 31.4% this week. There are more homes on the market now that have felt the need to reduce asking price than there were a year ago. Last year’s market strength in Q1 and Q2 led to 5% home-price growth for the full year of 2023. We have less strength in pricing now than we did last year.
While price reductions are in the “normal” range, they are higher now than any March in many years. There are more sellers now who have reduced the asking prices on their homes than in any March in over a decade. This last decade was a very strong one for homebuyer demand, so we haven’t seen a “normal” market in a very long time.
This is a signal to pay attention to. It’s hard to see how home prices will grow nationally this year under these circumstances. We can see buyers in the market, but there is no signal of them pushing home prices higher. Sellers who over-price are being forced to reduce.
In March 2022, there were still very few overall homes with price reductions, but that was changing rapidly. The slope started to climb very quickly, especially in April and May of that year. The number peaked in November 2022 with 43% of the homes on the market needing price cuts. That November peak corresponded to home sales price declines four to six months later. That’s why this data is worth watching so closely: These price cuts tell us about demand now, which turns into sales several months down the road.
We can see homebuyers are very sensitive to mortgage rate moves. We can see the price reductions data adjust exactly in the moments that mortgage rates jump higher.