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Mortgage rates have been falling steadily this month, and they’re down again this week.
Rates have dropped substantially over the past couple of months after 30-year mortgage rates spiked near 8% in October. Now they’re back below 7% at at their lowest since mid-June.
As long as inflation continues to slow, Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting the federal funds rate next year. This will remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates, and should allow mortgage rates to go down in 2024.
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Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.67%, according to Freddie Mac. This is a 28-basis-point decrease from the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates are 5.95%, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a 43-basis-point decrease from the previous week and the lowest the rate has been since mid-May.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Up?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But they’ve been decreasing recently, and mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.1%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen next year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
John Toohig, head of whole-loan trading on the Raymond James whole-loan desk and president of Raymond James Mortgage Co., said many of the same headwinds the market faced in 2023 remain as we roll into 2024. He said among them are higher rates (down a bit at yearend, but still in the high 6% range); “… the lack of liquidity in the banking sector; increasingly challenged affordability; and [consumer] credit starting to show some early cracks on the lower end of credit and with younger borrowers.”
Still, an interest-rate drop and soft landing for the economy, if the latter is truly achieved, will break some of the ice in a chilled housing market.
“For 2024, should the Federal Reserve determine they have overcorrected and start to lower rates [as indicated at the Fed’s December Federal Open Market Committee meeting], you will see a surge in trading volumes,” he added. “Discounts will be less impactful, loans will trade closer to par or gains again, and much of the frozen underwater coupons will transact again.
“Should credit break and the consumer buckle, [however,] you could see home prices fall, delinquencies and charge-offs on the rise and that will negatively impact pricing in a market with limited liquidity.”
It remains a guestimate game as far as when the Federal Reserve — which paused rates at its final meeting in 2023 — will decide to begin rolling back its benchmark rate in the year ahead from the current range of 5.25%-5.5%.
As 2023 moved toward a close, 30-year fixed rates had dropped into the mid-to-high 6% range. Few, if any, industry groups or market experts, however, have been accurate in predicting rates very far out in the current topsy-turvy market.
“If you look at futures, you’re looking at lower [Fed] rates by May of next year,” said Tom Piercy, chief growth officer at Incenter Capital Advisors (previously Incenter Mortgage Advisors). “I wouldn’t make a bet on it is because there’s just so much complexity in this.”
MSR sector
Piercy, whose shops advises both banks and nonbanks on mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) transactions, said the year ahead for MSRs will be impacted negatively if rates decline, but he adds rates would have to adjust downward significantly to accelerate loan-prepayment speeds, which would draw down the value of MSR packages. He said marginally lower rates would affect the returns holders of MSRs get from parked escrow accounts, however, which does impact MSR pricing.
Piercy expects that the combined MSR trading volume in the coming two years (2024 and 2025) will be on par with or slightly better than the combined trading volume of 2022 and 2023, when rates spiked and more than $1 trillion in MSR deals transacted each year.
“Over the next three years, including 2023, [we estimate] sub-$4 trillion [in MSR trades], maybe in the high $3 trillion [range], and again that’s for 2023 through 2025,” Piercy said. For 2023, slightly greater than 1.1 trillion in MSRs are expected to have traded, he added.
Part of that trading volume in 2024, Piercy said, is expected to be driven by MSR sales resulting from the continuing merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the nonbank sector of the market.
“Unless there’s some type of pickup in the forecast for originations, I think you’re going to see still an active M&A market through 2024,” he explained. “Many shops will probably look to become part of a larger, more financially stable platform.
“We’re forecasting right now a fairly strong Q1 for MSR sales. I think it’s going to be a robust market.”
MBS sector
Robust is not the adjective to describe what’s ahead in 2024 for the agency (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae) mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, however. Market observers say outsized spreads between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and 10-year Treasuries and subpar MBS clearing rates are likely to continue, given the imbalance in supply and demand in the market as the Federal Reserve continues to unwind its $2.5 trillion portfolio of MBS.
According to projections by real estate investment firm the Amherst Group, agency MBS net issuance for 2024 is estimated at $300 billion, up slightly from $250 billion in 2023 — but still down significantly from the barnburner year in 2021, when net issuance totaled $870 billion. Net issuance in MBS represents new securities issued less the decline in outstanding securities due to principal paydowns or prepayments.
The Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative easing is expected to contribute an excess MBS supply to the market in 2024 of some $225 billion, which will need to be absorbed in addition to the projected $300 billion in net new issuance.
“Generally, our view has been that mortgages are really undervalued,” said Amherst Chairman and CEO Sean Dobson. “I’ve been doing this for 30 years, and they’re about as good in value as they’ve ever been.
“But we don’t see a lot of snapback, with mortgages getting back in line [in terms of interest rates] anytime soon. … Mortgage rates are high and one big reason … is the [agency MBS] investor base is impaired, and it’s not likely to be fixed soon.”
Dobson added that, in his view, monetary policymakers didn’t fully grasp that when the Fed stopped buying mortgages, “they had displaced the actual buyers for so long that the actual buyers are now gone.
“… Now you can buy billions of dollars in bonds [MBS] that are really undervalued relative to their intrinsic risk because there’s just no sponsor [a major new buyer since the Fed’s pullback].”
Richard Koss, chief research officer at mortgage-data analytics firm Recursion, also offers a bleak assessment of the agency MBS market ahead — primarily because mortgage originations are likely to remain depressed, which means agency MBS issuance will be depressed as well.
Koss points to the huge volume of low-rate mortgages outstanding as the vexing problem the market faces, adding that low-rate legacy (2020 and 2021) mortgage-backed pools “are mostly discount bonds in the current [high] rate environment.”
“All the 4.0% and lower mortgages that dominate the market are less than four years old,” he said. “If you have a 3% mortgage, you need a 2.5% rate to justify refinancing, which is a 1% Treasury yield.
“That could happen, but we don’t want it to, since it means some kind of disaster. I think a mortgage winter has frozen things hard and conditions are such that we can only expect a measurable improvement out past 2030.”
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) estimates that total mortgage originations in 2023 will come in at about $1.6 trillion, down considerably from the $4.4 trillion in originations chalked up in the banner year of 2021. Next year, the MBA forecasts total originations at slightly more than $2 trillion — and its most current origination forecast shows only modest improvement in 2025, with originations (purchase and refinance) reaching $2.43 trillion.
RMBS sector
The origination downturn and rate volatility in 2023 negatively impacted the private-label residential mortgage-backed securitization (RMBS) market. Many market experts, however, expect a tailwind of declining rates for the year ahead as a result of recent signals from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts are on the table, starting as soon as the end of the first quarter of 2024.
“Additional rate hikes no longer appear to be part of the conversation, MBA senior vice president and chief economist Mike Fratantoni said in a statement reacting to the most recent Fed rate decision. “It is all about the pace of cuts from here.
“…We expect that this path for monetary policy should support further declines in mortgage rates, just in time for the spring housing market. We are forecasting modest growth in new and existing home sales in 2024, supporting growth in purchase originations, following an extraordinarily slow 2023.”
A report published in late November by Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) — which tracks RMBS offerings across the prime, nonprime, credit-risk transfer and second-lien sectors (RMBS 2.0). — assumed that the Fed was “closer to peak interest rates.” That assumption bodes well for the private-label market in 2024 — relative to its performance in 2023.
“We expect 2024 conditions to be more favorable and RMBS 2.0 issuance levels to be slightly higher than in 2023 at $56.5 billion (a 9% increase),” the KBRA report states.
Andrew Rhodes, senior director and head of trading at Mortgage Capital Trading, said the winter months ahead are going to be rough going for the housing market, including RMBS issuance.
“I think 2024 [overall] is going to be better from a [loan] origination standpoint, but I don’t think it’s going to be large increase,” he added. “…I really do think that 2025 will be a lot better, but that’s pretty far forward.”
Tailwinds
On a brighter note, Ben Hunsaker, portfolio manager focused on securitized credit for Beach Point Capital Management, points to the expansion of second-lien products in the primary market as a loan-origination and RMBS volume-driver in 2024, given the record-levels of home equity available to homeowners, many of whom are now locked into low-rate mortgages and have little incentive to sell or buy a new house.
“There’s this big pool of second liens and HELOCs [home equity lines of credit] that some of the originators have started to use as a key part of their toolkit, and you’re hearing them talk about it on earnings calls,” he said. “And so, I think that probably puts a kick in the pants to what 2024 [RMBS] volumes could look like.”
Charley Clark, a senior vice president and mortgage warehouse finance executive at EverBank (formerly known as TIAA Bank), also strikes a note of optimism for 2024 when it comes to the prospects for housing industry, specifically the large independent mortgage banks (IMBs) that feed the origination and securitization pipelines. Clark notes that EverBank serves about 40 of the largest mortgage banking companies in the nation.
“I think there’s definitely still some of the mom-and-pop shops [IMBs] — or let’s say a company with $20 million or $25 million or below in adjusted tangible net worth — that will be looking to sell,” he said. “But most of the big companies have solid balance sheets and have started to actually stop the bleeding.
“I’m encouraged because these companies [large IMBs] are much better positioned now. They’ve made the cuts, at least most of the cuts they need to make to right-size for where the industry is heading. And the best companies have really done a good job of that, so they’re positioned to do well next year, but it’s still going to be tough.”
Mortgage interest rates are mixed over the past week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining for the seventh straight week and the 15-year fixed rate rising marginally.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.95% for the week ending December 14, 2023, according to data from Freddie Mac. This represents a decrease of -0.08% from a week ago.
The 15-year fixed rate mortgage stands at 6.38%. That’s 0.09% higher than a week prior. At that rate, you’ll pay $865 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
The rate you’ll actually receive will vary based on the price of the home you’re buying, your credit history, and the size of the down payment you’re making. You can compare the offers below to find your best rate.
High interest rates are sticking around as central banks around the world, including the Fed, battle stubbornly high inflation with a series of aggressive interest rate hikes. These efforts to rein in prices have also slowed global economic growth and fueled recession fears.
Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East have further clouded the economic outlook.
As the Fed asserts that more rate hikes are likely needed to tame inflation, analysts expect mortgage rates will continue trending upward in the near term. This could place even more affordability pressure on the housing market, especially impacting first-time homebuyers.
Why shop around for mortgage rates?
Getting the lowest mortgage rate possible can save you tens of thousands of dollars over the lifetime of your home loan. With rates on the rise in 2023, it’s more important than ever to understand the factors impacting mortgage rates, strategically shop for the best deal, and meet lenders’ requirements to qualify for the lowest rate.
This guide will cover everything you need to know about today’s mortgage rates, from how they’re determined to where experts expect them to go in the months ahead.
What impacts mortgage rates
Mortgage rates tend to follow the direction of long-term government bond yields, especially the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. Here are some of the key factors that can influence fluctuations in these yields and mortgage rates:
Federal Reserve policy: When the Fed raises its benchmark federal funds rate, it often leads to higher borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates. The Fed began aggressively hiking rates in 2022 to combat high inflation, causing mortgage rates to soar. Further Fed rate hikes are expected through 2023.
Economic growth and inflation: Strong economic growth and rising inflation generally lead to higher mortgage rates, while slower growth and disinflation place downward pressure on rates.
Geopolitical events: Global conflict or political turmoil often spur investors to move money into safe haven assets like Treasury bonds, lowering yields and mortgage rates.
Investor demand: Strong demand for mortgage-backed securities from investors leads to lower mortgage rates. When demand falls, rates tend to rise.
Employment trends: A strong job market can fuel economic growth and push rates higher. Conversely, weak hiring data or increased unemployment tend to cause lower yields and rates.
Housing market trends: When housing demand is high, rates tend to rise as lenders face increased demand for mortgages. But lower demand for homes often correlates with declining mortgage rates.
Tips for finding the lowest mortgage rate
When shopping for a home loan, following these tips can help ensure you lock in the lowest possible mortgage rate:
Check rates from multiple lenders: Rates vary by lender, so comparing quotes from several lenders ensures you don’t overpay. Online rate comparison sites can give you a quick overview of prevailing rates.
Improve your credit score: Work on raising your credit score to at least 740, which will qualify you for the best mortgage terms. Pay down debts, correct any errors on your credit reports, and avoid taking on new debt before applying for a mortgage.
Lower your debt-to-income ratio: Lenders look closely at your existing debts in relation to your income. Paying down credit cards and other debts before applying for a mortgage can help lower your DTI and qualify for better rates.
Make a sizable down payment: Down payments of 20% or more of the home’s purchase price result in the best mortgage rates and eliminate the need to pay private mortgage insurance.
Compare quotes for 15-year and 30-year terms: In general, 15-year mortgage rates are lower than those on 30-year mortgages. But the higher monthly payment on a 15-year loan may not fit your budget.
Lock in your rate: Rates fluctuate daily. Once you find the rate you want, lock it in by completing most of the mortgage application paperwork. This protects you if rates rise further before closing.
Minimum requirements for common mortgage types
Mortgage lenders weigh many factors when reviewing applications, but most have basic requirements borrowers must meet to qualify for certain loans. Here are typical minimum standards for popular mortgage types.
Mortgage rates over the past three years
Mortgage rates have seen significant fluctuations over the past few years:
2020: Historic lows due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell below 3% by the end of 2020.
2021: Rates remained very low early in 2021, then began to rise in the spring. By December 2021, rates returned to pre-pandemic levels around 3.5%.
2022: The Fed’s rate hikes and inflation drove mortgage rates dramatically higher throughout 2022. Rates soared above 7% in late 2022 from around 3% at the beginning of the year.
2023: Rates are projected to remain elevated in 2023 compared to the past decade. Further Fed rate hikes could push averages above 8%.
The chart below shows average rates for the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages over the past three years.
The takeaway is that mortgage rates shift constantly in response to economic or political factors. Staying informed and timing your purchase to lock in a lower rate can make a huge difference in how much home you can afford. Casting a wide net when shopping for lenders pretty much guarantees you’ll secure the most competitive rate on your loan.
Methodology
Mortgage rate data comes from Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored leader in the housing industry that tracks average mortgage rates. We considered average rates for both the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and 15-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddie Mac rates exclude additional fees and points.
Average rates are reported weekly on Thursdays and updated accordingly.
This article is not intended to be financial advice. Before making significant financial decisions, you can review your options with a financial advisor or credit counselor.
Getting a mortgage should be slightly less painful in 2024.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve said it expected to cut interest rates three times next year. The Fed’s forecast brings a dose of holiday cheer to hopeful home buyers who have felt squeezed out of the market.
What a crazy week! Not too long ago, on jobs Friday, I was on the HousingWire Daily podcast saying it’s time to declare war on the Federal Reserve for being too restrictive; you can listen to the podcast here. A few days later, the Fed corrected its mistake — they didn’t go hawkish but instead made doves cry and bond yields acted correctly, sending the 10-year yield below 4% and mortgage rates under 7%.
Right after the Fed presser I did another podcast where I outlined why this was so positive for the U.S. economy. You can see it in the stats from last week, where the 10-year yield fell from 4.25% to end the week at 3.91%. Mortgage rates went from 7.10% to 6.62% and ended the week at 6.64%.
As I have said before, given the history of economic cycles, when the market believes the Fed rate-hike cycle is over, bond yields will rally and mortgage rates will fall. We have had an almost 1.5% move lower in mortgage rates without one rate cut happening, and that looks normal to me. We shall see if we can hold those gains next week.
Purchase application data
Even before mortgage rates dropped below 7.25%, we saw a positive move in purchase application data, which continued last week with another week of gains. That means we’ve had a positive trend for the last five weeks. Purchase apps were up 4% week to week, and as crazy as it might sound, we could end the year with more positive weekly prints than negative as the year-to-date count is 23 positive and 23 negative, with two flat prints.
During the last two weeks of the year, nothing much usually happens with purchase apps as we prepare for Christmas and the New Year, but I will always track the data! But the fact that we can even talk about a positive year when mortgage rates got to 8% demonstrates something that I have been talking about since Nov. 9, 2022, and for many years: It’s rare the U.S. to have existing home sales trends below 4 million with any duration post-1996. We have a core set of 4 million homebuyers every year for more than 25 years, and that hasn’t broken yet.
Weekly housing inventory data
Weekly active listing data is declining now like it always does every year at this time due to seasonality. Higher mortgage rates resulted in higher inventory during part of the fall and forced the seasonal decline in inventory to start later this year. However, the laws of seasonality always win in the end, and we are well on the road to a seasonal decline in inventory.
Last year, according to Altos Research, the seasonal peak for housing inventory was Oct. 28. The seasonal peak this year was on Nov. 17.
Weekly inventory change: (Dec. 8-15): Inventory fell from 546,424 to 538,767
Same week last year (Dec. 9-16): Inventory fell from 536,409 to 522,869
The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 so far is 569,898
For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,037,129
New listing data in 2023 has been a positive story; even with higher mortgage rates, we didn’t see more sellers pull back as they did in 2022 after rates surpassed 6%. Because we saw stability in 2023, I was looking for some flat to positive year-over-year growth in the data during the second half of the year. This is what we see, and it’s much needed; we need more new listings and not fewer. Even though this data line has been trending at the lowest levels ever in history for 17 months, it’s positive that we are seeing growth on a year-over-year basis now. This was something I talked about on CNBC months ago.
New listings data for last week in the last several years:
2023: 39,613
2022: 34,973
2021: 39,936
Traditionally, one-third of all homes will have price cuts before they sell. When mortgage rates rise and demand decreases, more homes see price cuts. However, even with mortgage rates reaching 8% this year, we trended below 2022 levels the entire time. Now that mortgage rates have fallen almost 1.5%, it will be interesting to see what the spring season in 2024 will look like. If demand does pick up as we are seeing now, the percentage of houses taking price cuts will likely fall further.
Price cut percentages this week over the last few years:
2023: 38%
2022: 41%
2021: 26%
The week ahead: Housing and Inflation
Housing week is here so we have four reports: the builders confidence Index, housing starts, existing home sales and new home sales. Also, we have the Fed’s critical inflation data report in the PCE, and it will be interesting to see how the bond market reacts to this report now that the Fed is discussing rate cuts. We also have the leading economic index to report on.
So, tons of data coming out this week. One thing about existing home sales: purchase application data started to improve five weeks ago. This data line looks out 30-90 days, so this existing home sales report might be too early to take into account the entire positive move in the forward-looking data.
In a year that saw the federal funds rate reach its highest level in more than two decades, high-yield savings accounts are earning some of the best rates we’ve seen in a while. This means savvy savers are ending 2023 on a high note.
But the Fed has recently hit pause on rate increases. The target range has remained between 5.25% and 5.50% since July. The many savings account rate hikes we saw earlier in the year have leveled off accordingly.
So where will savings rates go in 2024?
Before making predictions, it’s worth taking a moment to understand what the Fed rate is, why it sometimes changes, and what effect those changes have on your savings account. Once you understand that, you can take steps to maximize your own bank moves, regardless of what the Fed announces.
A look back: The Fed rate and how it affects you
The federal funds rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow money to meet regulatory requirements. The Fed can use rate increases (and decreases) to respond to market conditions.
Raising the rate can help curb inflation by making it more expensive for banks to borrow money. This can increase the cost of loans to consumers and businesses. When loans are more expensive, some households may be less willing to spend money, which could eventually lead to lower prices and lower inflation. Fed rates increased four times between February 2023 and July 2023, following seven consecutive increases in 2022.
Rising Fed rates are good news for savers, as hikes tend to correspond with savings rate increases. In January 2023, the average national savings account rate was 0.33%, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. By November 2023, that figure had bumped up to 0.46%. (Both rates are significantly higher than the average of 0.06% in January 2022, before the series of rate hikes.) These increases, while notable, are just averages. The best savings rates have risen from less than 1% in January 2022 to an annual percentage yield of more than 5% today.
Here’s what a high rate means.Say you put $5,000 in your emergency savings fund and it earns 0.06% APY. If you left that amount in your account without touching it for a year, your bank balance would grow by only about $3. But put the same amount in a savings account that earns 5% APY and it would grow by more than $250 in the same period. That’s extra money without extra effort. You can use a savings calculator to tally more potential gains.
It’s worth noting that not everyone can leave money untouched in savings for a year. According to J.D. Power’s October 2023 Banking and Payments Intelligence report, more than a quarter of American bank customers surveyed reported tapping their emergency savings account in the previous 90 days to pay for regular expenses, such as gas, food or rent.
Rising costs due to inflation were a big reason customers drew down their savings over the past year, says Jennifer White, a senior consultant in the banking and payments intelligence practice at J. D. Power and author of the study. The cost of goods and services can affect customers’ ability to save.
But relief may be on the horizon.
SoFi Checking and Savings
Min. balance for APY
$0
CIT Bank Platinum Savings
Min. balance for APY
$5,000
BMO Alto Online Savings Account
Min. balance for APY
$0
What to expect in 2024
Today, the core inflation rate is lower than it was in 2022 when Fed rate increases began. Forecasters are predicting that going into next year, inflation will continue to fall or moderate.
The economic indicators now “seem to be moving in a positive direction,” White says.
Lower inflation can mean lower prices for consumers, and it could also mean no more Fed rate increases for a while. The CME FedWatch tool, which aggregates analyst predictions for Fed rate changes, shows a high probability that the Fed rate will decrease at some point in 2024, potentially as early as March. Keep in mind that this is just an estimate.
If the Fed rate does decrease, we will likely see a drop in the top savings account yields. But remember that the savings account increases we saw earlier this year didn’t happen overnight, and sudden steep slides aren’t likely to happen either.
If rates do decrease, your savings may not earn interest as fast as before. But having your money in a high-rate account still gives you the best chance to make the most of your funds. High-interest savings accounts tend to outperform their competitors even when rates drop. Back in January 2022, when the average savings account rate was a pitifully low 0.06%, high-yield savings accounts still earned around 0.50% APY — nearly 10 times more than the average at the time.
“If you are not taking whatever amount of money you have and taking a look at those high-yield options, you may be leaving money on the table,” White says.
Getting your savings ready for 2024
You can’t control the Fed, but you can control your own money moves. Here are some ways to put yourself in a strong financial position, no matter what happens with savings rates.
Review your savings plan to build your balance and prepare for unexpected expenses.
Avoid monthly fees on bank accounts.
No one can predict Fed action or savings rates in 2024. But maximizing your deposits now can help put you in the best possible position for today, next year and beyond.
The housing market cheered as the Federal Reserve signaled interest rate cuts next year after making a series of rapid rate hikes starting in 2022.
While the central bank did not completely rule out the possibility of a rate increase in 2024, that action seems unlikely. Instead, fresh economic projections from central bank officials showed rates would be slashed to a median 4.6% by the end of 2024, suggesting three 25 basis points (bps) cuts from current levels.
The so-called dot plot estimates show interest rates falling to a median 3.6% in 2025, indicating four more 25 bps cuts. For 2026, Fed officials projected rates to fall below 3% by the end of 2026 through three more quarter percentage point reductions.
What does this mean for mortgage rates?
“Mortgage rates should get better. If the spreads get better, that will be an extra plus,” said Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. “The main focus now is that if the economic data gets weaker, bond traders have the green light to take yields lower.”
Mortgage rates track the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, which move based on anticipation about the Fed’s actions, what the Fed ends up doing and investors’ reactions. When Treasury yields go down, so do mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a low of 4.007% following the Fed’s press conference, declining from 4.202% at market open on Wednesday.
“While nobody in the mortgage world would say ’tis the season to be jolly’ based on current market conditions, the Fed’s outlook at its December meeting points to an increased possibility of a happier new year,” said Marty Green, principal at mortgage law firm Polunsky Beitel Green.
Expect lower mortgage rates
With the central bank shifting toward the next phase in its fight against rapid inflation, experts expect the path for monetary policy to support further declines in mortgage rates, just in time for a traditionally busy spring housing market.
“The commentary about three expected cuts next year and no rate hikes is great news for the mortgage industry,” Michael Merritt, senior vice president of customer care and default mortgage servicing at BOK Financial. “These cuts will allow mortgage rates to fall faster throughout 2024. The conservative expectation of three cuts also paints a positive overall outlook since they are not expecting to have to make large numbers of cuts to fuel economic growth or make increases to offset inflation.”
After hovering below 8% at the time of the last FOMC meeting in November, mortgage rates sit at just under 7%, according to HousingWire’s mortgage rate center on Wednesday.
“We’re probably at an inflection point where rates have come down enough that more buyers are coming back into the marketplace,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage.
While mortgage rates are expected to decrease, high home prices combined with low inventory still pose a challenge for potential homebuyers.
“We don’t expect rates to fall that much in this period and it may not offset rising home prices in hot housing markets. So, homebuyers who wait on the sidelines for better rates next year may find the waiting game didn’t pay the dividends they expected,” said Max Slyusarchuk, CEO of A&D Mortgage.
The median price of single family homes in the U.S. is $424,900, which is up 2.4% from last year at the same time, according to Altos Research.
“There are really no national indicators, anywhere in the data, that show home prices currently falling,” Mike Simonsen, president of Altos, said in a recent commentary.
While inventory typically rises with higher mortgage rates and falls with lower mortgage rates, there is no signal of any flood of sellers, which would be bearish for home prices, Simonsen noted.
For there to be a supply-demand balance, rates would need to stay higher and cuts would have to come slower than markets are predicting, according to Jack Macdowell, chief investment officer at Palisades Group.
“The housing market plays a role in this given the contribution to headline inflation calculations,” Macdowell said.
“If rates come down too much (and mortgage rates follow), we’ll see the current supply-demand imbalance exacerbated as pent-up demand gets released into an undersupplied market, putting upward pressure on home values–and inflation. Until mortgage rates drop below 6% it is unlikely that pent-up deferred sales will meaningfully contribute to supply.”
Federal Reserve left its key short-term interest rate unchanged again Wednesday, hinted that rate hikes are likely over and forecast three cuts next year amid falling inflation and a cooling economy.
That’s more rate cuts than many economists expected.
The decision leaves the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% following a flurry of rate increases aimed at subduing the nation’s sharpest inflation spike in four decades. The central bank has now held its key rate steady for three straight meetings since July.
That provides another reprieve for consumers who have faced higher borrowing costs for credit cards, adjustable-rate mortgages and other loans as a result of the Fed’s moves. Yet Americans, especially seniors, are finally reaping healthy bank savings yields after years of paltry returns.
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Is a soft landing in sight? What the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates are hinting at
Will the Fed raise interest rates again?
The central bank didn’t rule out another rate increase as it downgraded its economic outlook for next year while lowering its inflation forecast. In a statement after a two-day meeting, it repeated that it would assess the economy and financial developments, among other factors, to determine “the extent of any additional (rate hikes) that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference, noting the Fed’s key rate is “at or near its peak.”
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high after rising 1.4% following the Fed’s signals that it’s probably done lifting rates and is forecasting three cuts next year. The 10-year Treasury was down to about 4% from 4.21% on Tuesday.
Last month, Powell said high Treasury yields, if persistent, likely would constrain the economy and require fewer Fed rate increases,
In its statement Wednesday, however, the central bank didn’t acknowledge the recent decline in Treasury yields, suggesting yields are still relatively high and could spike again, crimping the economy.
“Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation,” the Fed said, repeating the language of its previous statement.
Is inflation really slowing down?
The Fed’s middle-ground approach may have been cemented Tuesday by a mixed report on the consumer price index. The good news was that overall inflation barely budged in November amid falling gasoline prices, pushing down annual price gains to 3.1% from 3.2%, still well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
The Federal Reserve System is the U.S.’s central bank.
When does the Fed meet again?
The first Federal Reserve meeting of the new year will be from Jan. 30 through 31.
Federal reserve calendar
Jan. 30-31
March 19-20
April 30- May 1
June 11-12
July 30-31
Sept. 17-18
Nov. 6-7
Dec. 17-18
The U.S. economy was strong in the third quarter as consumers continued to spend despite high interest rates and inflation.
The value of all services and products generated in the U.S., or GDP, rose at a seasonally adjusted 4.9% for the year in the months spanning July to September, according to the Commerce Department. That was more than twice the 2.1% increase in the previous quarter and the most aggressive pace of growth since the end of 2021 when the economy surged back from a recession sparked by the pandemic.
a recession over the next year, down from the 61% odds forecast in May.
Barclays predicted a loss of roughly 375,000 jobs by the middle of next year. But consumer spending remains robust despite high inflation and interest rates that are making credit card use and consumer loans more expensive. And that may help stave off a recession, says Barclays economist Jonathan Millar.
What does FOMC stand for?
The FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the voting body responsible for setting interest rates. The 12-member committee includes seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Reserve Bank presidents.
What causes inflation?
Inflation can have many roots. Typically, it’s caused by “a macroeconomic excess of spending over the economy’s relative ability to produce goods and services,” said Josh Bivens, the director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank based in Washington D.C.
That means more people are wanting items and services than there is adequate supply, leading producers to raise prices.
“If everyone in the economy, tomorrow, decided they weren’t going to save any money from their paychecks, and they’re just going to spend every last dollar out of the blue, they would all run to the stores and try to buy things,” Bivens said. “But, producers haven’t produced enough to accommodate that big surge of across-the-board spending. So, you would see prices bid up.”
Inflation can also happen when there are too few producers, or there aren’t enough employees to provide the coveted products and services, Bivens said.
Finally, economies also have some “built-in inflation” to help keep inflation in check. In the U.S., that target is 2%, meaning businesses can raise prices 2% annually year and that shouldn’t overburden consumers. That’s also the typical cost of living raise offered by employers.
Inflation meaning
Inflation is the term for a “generalized rise in prices,” according to Josh Bivens, head of research at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank based in Washington D.C.
Everything from food to rent can become costlier due to inflation. But it is the overall impact that determines what the inflation rate actually is.
“Inflation, though, really is meant to only refer to all goods and services, together, rising in price by some common amount,” Bivens said. The Federal Reserve’s inflation goal is 2%, which means businesses can hike prices by 2% a year and that shouldn’t cause consumers financial distress. Cost of living increases to workers’ pay are also expected to meet that target to ensure consumers can adequately deal with the rising costs of goods and services.
What is CPI?
In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ‒ a measure of the average shift in prices for different products and services ‒ was 3.1%, down slightly from the month before.
Annual inflation is down dramatically from the 9.1% in June 2022 that marked a 40-year high but remains above the 2% target the Fed sees as the level that signals the rate of price increases is under control.
Why is CPI important?
The Federal Reserve watches two key aspects of the economy, price stability and maximum employment, and those are the main factors it takes into account for its interest rate decisions. The CPI is a primary measure the Fed looks at to help determine if prices are “stable.’’
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
Core prices don’t count the volatile costs of food and energy items, giving a more accurate window into longer-term trends.
Are wages going up in 2024?
If you’re deemed a top performer at a company that is offering raises, you’ve got a pretty good chance of getting a pay boost next year.
About 3 out of four business leaders told ResumeBuilder.com they intended to give raises. But half of those company executives said only 50% or less of their staff members would see a pay hike, and 82% of the raises would hinge on performance. For those who do manage to get the salary boost, 79% of employers said the pay hikes would be greater than those given in recent years.
Are U.S. Treasury yields rising?
Not recently.
The 10-year Treasury yield was above 5% in November when the Fed kept rates steady for the second consecutive month the first time it had left the key rate unchanged two months in a row in almost two years.
That led to mortgage rates spiking to almost 8% and pushed up other borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Stocks meanwhile sank close to a recent low, leading Fed Chair Jerome Powell to say such financial pressures could achieve the same cooling effect on the economy as additional rate hikes.
But in the following weeks, 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 4.2% and stocks rebounded. That might make the Fed resist rate cuts in case the economy heats up and causes the broader dip in prices “to stall at an uncomfortably elevated level,” Barclays says.
Barclays and Goldman Sachs forecast that rate cuts won’t happen until the spring, and that there will be only two, to a range of 4.75% to 5%, with more cuts implemented in the next two years.
When will inflation go back to normal?
It may take a little while.
Inflation’s decline likely “won’t show much progress in coming months,” Barclays wrote in a research note.
Overall price hikes have eased significantly since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, a four-decade high. And in October, broader inflation as well as core prices experienced a dip, leading to a lower 10-year Treasury yield.
But core prices, which exclude the volatile costs of food and energy, will probably rise 0.3% each of the next three months, Goldman Sachs says. Used cars and furniture have been getting cheaper as the supply-chain shortages of the pandemic end. Meanwhile, health care, auto repairs, car insurance and rent continue to get more expensive, as employers pay higher wages to attract workers amid a labor shortage lingering from the global health crisis.
What is core inflation right now?
Core prices, which leave out the more volatile costs of food and energy, bumped up 0.3% in November, slightly more than the 0.2% uptick seen the previous month. That kept the yearly increase at 4%, the lowest rate since September 2021.
New inflation tax brackets
Inflation may also impact the amount of taxes you have to pay.
The Internal Revenue Service said in its annual inflation adjustments report that there will be a 5.4% bump in income thresholds to reach each new level in next year’s tax season.
In 2024, the lowest rate of 10% will apply to individuals with taxable income up to $11,600 and joint filers up to $23,200. The top rate of 37% will apply to individuals earning over $609,350, and married couples filing jointly who make at least $731,200 a year.
The IRS makes these adjustments annually, using a formula based on the consumer price index to account for inflation and stave off “bracket creep,” which happens when inflation shifts taxpayers into a higher bracket though they’re not seeing any real rise in pay or purchasing power.
The 2024/25 increase is less than last year’s 7% increase, but much more than recent years when inflation was below the current 3.1% inflation rate.
Will Social Security get a raise because of inflation?
Yes, but it will be a lot less than what recipients received in 2023.
The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, to Social Security benefits will be 3.2% next year. That’s roughly one-third of the 8.7% increase given in 2023, which marked a forty-year high.
The 2024 COLA hike is above the average 2.6% raise recipients have received over the past two decades, but seniors remain concerned about being able to pay their expenses as well as the increasing possibility Social Security benefits will be reduced in coming years, according to a retirement survey of 2,258 people by The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit seniors group.
How does raising rates lower inflation?
The federal funds rate is what banks pay each other to borrow overnight. If that rate increases, banks usually pass along that extra cost, meaning it becomes more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow as rates rise on credit cards, adjustable rate mortgages and other loans. That’s why the funds rate is the key mechanism used by the Federal Reserve to calm inflation.
Simply put, companies and consumers don’t borrow as much when loans cost them more, and that means an overheated economy can cool and inflation may dip.
Will credit card interest rates continue to rise this holiday season?
The Fed’s string of rate hikes, aimed at easing the highest inflation in four decades, are a big reason credit card interest rates have reached record highs just in time for the holiday season.
Some retail credit cards now charge more than 33% interest, topping a 30% threshold that stores and banks were previously able to bypass but seldom did – until now.
“They can charge that much,” said Chi Chi Wu, a senior attorney at the nonprofit National Consumer Law Center. “Credit cards can actually charge whatever they want. It’s a little-known fact.”
The domino effect of a high benchmark rate and soaring credit card interest could put many Americans in financial straits this holiday season.
Though some consumers are paring back to deal with high prices, rising debt and shrinking savings, the average shopper expects to spend $1,652 this year on holiday purchases, according to the consultancy Deloitte, more than was typically spent in the last three years.
A lot of the buying will be done with credit cards. In an October poll of 1,036 shoppers by CardRates.com, nearly 4 in 10 respondents said they intend to have holiday credit card debt in the new year.
The nation’s collective credit card debt was $1.08 trillion, at the end of September, a record high. And the average interest rate was 21%, the highest ever documented by the Federal Reserve.
Savings account impact of high rates
The upside to the Fed’s string of rate hikes has been that consumers were able to earn good interest on their savings for the first time in years. Even when the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, savers can do well.
Unfortunately, most account holders aren’t making the most of that potential opportunity.
Roughly one-fifth of Americans who have savings accounts don’t know how much interest they’re earning, according to a quarterly Paths to Prosperity study by Santander US, part of the global bank Santander. Among those who did know their account’s interest rate, most were earning less than 3%.
But consumers have time to make a change that could enable them to make more from their savings.
“We’re still a long way from (the Fed) beginning to cut rates,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at financial services platform Bankrate. “This is great news for savers, who will continue to enjoy inflation-beating returns in the top-yielding, federally insured online savings accounts and certificates of deposit. For borrowers, interest rates staying higher for a longer period underscores the urgency to pay down and pay off costly credit card debt and home equity lines.”
The string of Fed rate hikes that began in March 2022 has made it costlier for consumers to borrow as interest rates on credit cards and other loans increased dramatically.
At the same time, inflation has made daily needs more expensive, pushing more Americans to lean on credit cards to get by. But lenders have become more reluctant to issue new cards, so in the midst of the holiday season, more shoppers are seeking higher credit limits, experts say.
In October, the application rate for higher limits rose to 17.8% from 11.2% in the same month the previous year, and from 12.0% in 2019, New York Fed data showed.
For some consumers, a higher limit on a card they already have is about their only option.
“After COVID, inflation and interest rates went out of control … people have less emergency funds for car repairs or buying presents,” said Brandon Robinson, president and founder of JBR Associates, which specializes in retirement strategies. “What they’re doing is using more credit card utilization – over 30% or well over 50% of their credit card allowance – and then can’t get approved for another card because their credit rating is down.”
Inflation is leading more Americans to work multiple jobs
The number of Americans working at least two jobs is at its highest peak since before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to federal data, an uptick that may reflect the financial pressure people are feeling amid high inflation.
Almost 8.4 million people had multiple jobs in October, the Labor Department said, a figure that represents 5.2% of the laborforce, the highest percentage since January 2020.
“Paying for necessities has become more of a challenge, and affording luxuries and discretionary items has become more difficult, if not impossible for some, particularly those at the lower ends of the income and wealth spectrums,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told USA TODAY in an email.
People may also be moonlighting to sock away cash in case they’re laid off since job cuts typically peak at the start of a new year.
What is the Federal Reserve’s 2024 meeting schedule? Here is when the Fed will meet again.
What is the mortgage interest rate today?
Mortgage rates are falling, so is it time to buy?
It depends.
First of all, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions have an impact. For instance, when the central bank was steadily boosting its key rate, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond went up as well. Because those bonds are a gauge for the interest applied to an average 30-year loan, mortgage rates increased.
But over the past six weeks, mortgage rates have been declining, averaging 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. That’s down from almost 7.8% at the end of October, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Dec. 7.
That may be giving some wannabe homeowners the confidence to start house hunting. For the week ending Dec. 1, mortgage applications rose 2.8% from the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“However, in the big picture, mortgage rates remain pretty high,” says Danielle Hale, senior economist for Realtor.com. “The typical mortgage rate according to Freddie Mac data is roughly in line with what we saw in August and early to mid-September, which were then 20 plus year highs.”
So, many potential buyers may still need to sit on the sidelines, waiting for rates to drop further, says Sam Khater, chief economist for Freddie Mac. Hale and many other experts believe mortgage rates will dip next year.
Interest rate projection 2024
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates next year, though markets and economists disagree about how many rate cuts there will be.
Futures markets forecast there will be four or five rate cuts in 2024, amounting to a quarter of a percentage point each. The cuts, they predict, should start by spring, and ultimately drop interest rates as low as 4% to 4.25%.
But core prices, which leave out the volatile costs of food and energy and are the metric followed more closely by the Fed, ticked up 0.3% in November, higher than the 0.2% increase the month before. That might make the Fed more hesitant to nip rates in the immediate future.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect there to be only two rate decreases in 2024. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned in recent public remarks that it was “premature” to talk about rate cuts.
November inflation report
Inflation dipped slightly last month, with falling gas prices mitigating the impact of rising rents.
Consumer prices overall increased 3.1% from a year earlier, slightly below the 3.2% rise in October, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. That slower pace moves the inflation rate nearer to the level, reached in June, that was the lowest in over two years. Month over month, prices increased a slight 0.1%.
Core prices, however, which leave out the more erratic costs of food and energy and which are more closely monitored by the Fed, increased 0.3% in November after rising 0.2% the previous month. That means core inflation’s yearly increase remained at 4%, though it’s the lowest level since September 2021.
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Mortgage rates have been steadily dropping, and they fell even further this week. So far in December, 30-year mortgage rates have been holding steady below 7%.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November jobs report, which showed that the labor market is strong but continuing to normalize.
This is good news for mortgage rates, since it means that the Federal Reserve will likely keep the federal funds rate steady at its meeting next week. Markets even believe we could see some Fed rate cuts next year, which would likely cause mortgage rates to go down in 2024.
However, the effects of the Fed’s hikes over the past couple of years are still playing out, and inflation remains a bit elevated. As long as inflation and the labor market continue to cool, mortgage rates should as well. But Fed officials have said they are willing to hike rates further if necessary, which could push mortgage rates back up.
“The recent rapid decline in rates – in particular, the mortgage rate is down nearly 80 basis points since the end of October – along with continued job growth are beneficial for homebuyers; however, if labor markets remain this strong, we believe the pace of mortgage rate declines will likely not continue in the near term or may partially reverse,” Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae, said in an email.
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Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
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Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
Mortgage Rate Projection for 2023
Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022.
Rates have increased even further this year, though they may fall soon as inflation continues to slow. In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.2%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked last year at 9.1% in June.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
Home prices declined a bit on a monthly basis late last year, but we aren’t likely to see huge drops anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 6.7% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 5.7% increase in 2023 and a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates may start to drop next year, which would remove some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely keep prices from dropping.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it’s a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won’t change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you’ll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further in a few years, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.
Mortgage interest rates are down over the past week, marking the sixth straight week of rates decreasing. This decline is promising for prospective homebuyers, though interest rates lowering more will depend on Federal Reserve decisions and other economic factors.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.03% for the week ending December 7, 2023, according to data from Freddie Mac. This represents a decrease of -0.19% from a week ago.
The 15-year fixed rate mortgage stands at 6.29%. That’s -0.27% lower than a week prior. At that rate, you’ll pay $860 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
The rate you’ll actually receive will vary based on the price of the home you’re buying, your credit history, and the size of the down payment you’re making. You can compare the offers below to find your best rate.
High interest rates are sticking around as central banks around the world, including the Fed, battle stubbornly high inflation with a series of aggressive interest rate hikes. These efforts to rein in prices have also slowed global economic growth and fueled recession fears.
Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East have further clouded the economic outlook.
As the Fed asserts that more rate hikes are likely needed to tame inflation, analysts expect mortgage rates will continue trending upward in the near term. This could place even more affordability pressure on the housing market, especially impacting first-time homebuyers.
Why shop around for mortgage rates?
Getting the lowest mortgage rate possible can save you tens of thousands of dollars over the lifetime of your home loan. With rates on the rise in 2023, it’s more important than ever to understand the factors impacting mortgage rates, strategically shop for the best deal, and meet lenders’ requirements to qualify for the lowest rate.
This guide will cover everything you need to know about today’s mortgage rates, from how they’re determined to where experts expect them to go in the months ahead.
What impacts mortgage rates
Mortgage rates tend to follow the direction of long-term government bond yields, especially the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. Here are some of the key factors that can influence fluctuations in these yields and mortgage rates:
Federal Reserve policy: When the Fed raises its benchmark federal funds rate, it often leads to higher borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates. The Fed began aggressively hiking rates in 2022 to combat high inflation, causing mortgage rates to soar. Further Fed rate hikes are expected through 2023.
Economic growth and inflation: Strong economic growth and rising inflation generally lead to higher mortgage rates, while slower growth and disinflation place downward pressure on rates.
Geopolitical events: Global conflict or political turmoil often spur investors to move money into safe haven assets like Treasury bonds, lowering yields and mortgage rates.
Investor demand: Strong demand for mortgage-backed securities from investors leads to lower mortgage rates. When demand falls, rates tend to rise.
Employment trends: A strong job market can fuel economic growth and push rates higher. Conversely, weak hiring data or increased unemployment tend to cause lower yields and rates.
Housing market trends: When housing demand is high, rates tend to rise as lenders face increased demand for mortgages. But lower demand for homes often correlates with declining mortgage rates.
Tips for finding the lowest mortgage rate
When shopping for a home loan, following these tips can help ensure you lock in the lowest possible mortgage rate:
Check rates from multiple lenders: Rates vary by lender, so comparing quotes from several lenders ensures you don’t overpay. Online rate comparison sites can give you a quick overview of prevailing rates.
Improve your credit score: Work on raising your credit score to at least 740, which will qualify you for the best mortgage terms. Pay down debts, correct any errors on your credit reports, and avoid taking on new debt before applying for a mortgage.
Lower your debt-to-income ratio: Lenders look closely at your existing debts in relation to your income. Paying down credit cards and other debts before applying for a mortgage can help lower your DTI and qualify for better rates.
Make a sizable down payment: Down payments of 20% or more of the home’s purchase price result in the best mortgage rates and eliminate the need to pay private mortgage insurance.
Compare quotes for 15-year and 30-year terms: In general, 15-year mortgage rates are lower than those on 30-year mortgages. But the higher monthly payment on a 15-year loan may not fit your budget.
Lock in your rate: Rates fluctuate daily. Once you find the rate you want, lock it in by completing most of the mortgage application paperwork. This protects you if rates rise further before closing.
Minimum requirements for common mortgage types
Mortgage lenders weigh many factors when reviewing applications, but most have basic requirements borrowers must meet to qualify for certain loans. Here are typical minimum standards for popular mortgage types.
Mortgage rates over the past three years
Mortgage rates have seen significant fluctuations over the past few years:
2020: Historic lows due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell below 3% by the end of 2020.
2021: Rates remained very low early in 2021, then began to rise in the spring. By December 2021, rates returned to pre-pandemic levels around 3.5%.
2022: The Fed’s rate hikes and inflation drove mortgage rates dramatically higher throughout 2022. Rates soared above 7% in late 2022 from around 3% at the beginning of the year.
2023: Rates are projected to remain elevated in 2023 compared to the past decade. Further Fed rate hikes could push averages above 8%.
The chart below shows average rates for the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages over the past three years.
The takeaway is that mortgage rates shift constantly in response to economic or political factors. Staying informed and timing your purchase to lock in a lower rate can make a huge difference in how much home you can afford. Casting a wide net when shopping for lenders pretty much guarantees you’ll secure the most competitive rate on your loan.
Methodology
Mortgage rate data comes from Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored leader in the housing industry that tracks average mortgage rates. We considered average rates for both the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and 15-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddie Mac rates exclude additional fees and points.
Average rates are reported weekly on Thursdays and updated accordingly.
This article is not intended to be financial advice. Before making significant financial decisions, you can review your options with a financial advisor or credit counselor.