“In light of these risks, I believe it’s much too soon to think about cutting interest rates,” Logan said. “I will need to see more of the uncertainty resolved about which economic path we’re on.” Fed officials, she added, “should remain prepared to respond appropriately if inflation stops falling.” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman echoed concerns … [Read more…]
Data experts on the mortgage team at NerdWallet dig into NerdWallet’s survey research, as well as public datasets, to identify trends and provide insights on the ever-changing U.S. housing market. On this page, you’ll find some of NerdWallet’s most-read research and commentaries on home buyers and sellers, mortgage interest rates and homeownership.
For NerdWallet statistics and data on additional topics, including credit cards, banking and student loans, head to our studies and data analysis hub.
Have questions or want to speak with a NerdWallet expert? Reach out to [email protected].
Mortgage interest rates
Daily mortgage interest rates
Mortgage interest rates this week
Mortgage interest rates this month
NerdWallet home and mortgages expert Holden Lewis writes a monthly column covering the near-term forecast for mortgage rates.
Annual home buyer report
Every winter, NerdWallet collaborates with The Harris Poll to survey U.S. adults 18 years and older. The results provide a nationally representative snapshot of how Americans perceive the housing market.
2024 Home Buyer Report: Pessimism reigns as home buyers struggle and the goal of homeownership loses some of its luster.
2023 Home Buyer Report: Higher mortgage interest rates and apprehensions about the economy have Americans unsure about their ability to purchase homes.
2021 Home Buyer Report: Pent-up demand from would-be home buyers clashes with a limited supply of homes for sale.
2020 Home Buyer Report: Buying a home is a top priority, especially for younger generations, but some feel locked out of homeownership.
2019 Home Buyer Report: Recent buyers have had to get competitive to close their deals, and many feel stretched by the costs of homeownership.
2018 Home Buyer Report: Homeownership is a widely shared goal, but concerns about costs keep some buyers sidelined.
Quarterly first-time home buyer affordability report
Each quarter, NerdWallet data analyst Elizabeth Renter analyzes information from sources including the U.S. Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Association of Realtors to better understand the challenges facing first-time home buyers.
Q4 2023: A slight bump in inventory isn’t enough to ease affordability challenges.
Q3 2023: Higher mortgage rates outpace slight price declines seen in some metros.
Q2 2023: Seasonality appears to be returning to home prices.
Q1 2023: Banks’ tighter lending standards add to the difficult climate for first-time buyers.
Q3 2022: Price increases slow, but rising mortgage rates eat into potential savings.
Q2 2022: Falling wages and price growth intensify affordability struggles.
Q1 2022: Two years’ worth of data highlights housing market challenges.
Q4 2021: High prices and low inventory are a double whammy in some markets.
Q3 2021: Moderate improvements may be blips, not trends.
Q2 2021: Notable year-over-year decline in affordability.
Q4 2020: Typical winter shifts in the housing market may help home buyers.
Q3 2020: Competition is hot for the limited supply of homes on the market.
Q2 2020: Real estate booms as the country comes out of quarantine.
Q1 2020: Home prices rise, even as the effects of the pandemic are unclear.
Elevated mortgage rates took a bite out of new home sales in February, as they declined slightly from the previous month. Builders continue to respond to affordability concerns; half of the homes sold in February cost under $400,000, compared with 45% in January.
March 25, 2024
Latest housing market columns from Holden Lewis
Additional studies and data analysis
Home buyers
Home improvement
2022 study: After a boom in renovations and DIY projects, homeowners may dial back home improvement plans (Nov. 2022).
2020 study: Homeowners prioritize DIY and paying for projects with cash (Oct. 2020).
Home sellers
2023 data analysis: Why homeowners may want to sell despite higher interest rates (March 2023).
2021 study: What to expect listing a home in a seller’s market (April 2021).
2019 study: What sellers should know before listing (May 2019) .
Housing market
Mortgage denials
2022 data analysis: Higher home prices and debt contribute to home loan denials (Nov. 2023).
2021 data analysis: Competition and lack of collateral drive mortgage denials (Oct. 2022).
2020 data analysis: Tighter lending standards make some home loans harder to obtain (Nov. 2021).
2019 data analysis: Debt-to-income ratio most-cited reason for mortgage denials (Oct. 2020).
We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we believe in. Pricing and availability are subject to change.
Kelly Suzan Waggoner
April 10, 2024 at 7:50 AM
As economists await the release of this morning’s key Consumer Price Index inflation data, mortgage rates are up, with the 30-year fixed purchase rate hovering above 7% as of Wednesday, April 10, 2024.
The current average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.02% for purchase and 6.97% for refinance — up 10 basis points from 6.92% for purchase and up 4 basis points from 6.93% for refinance last Wednesday. Rates on a 15-year mortgage stand at an average 6.44% for purchase and 6.48% for refinance. The average rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 7.20%, up 24 basis points from last week.
Purchase rates for Wednesday, April 10, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 7.02%
20-year fixed rate — 6.81%
15-year fixed rate — 6.44%
10-year fixed rate — 6.37%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.60%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.77%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.09%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.20%
Refinance rates for Wednesday, April 10, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 6.97%
20-year fixed rate — 6.81%
15-year fixed rate — 6.48%
10-year fixed rate — 6.37%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.42%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.93%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.81%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.12%
Freddie Mac weekly mortgage report
Freddie Mac reports an average 6.82% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, up three basis points from last week, according to its weekly survey of nationwide lenders published on April 4, 2024. The fixed rate for a 15-year mortgage is 6.06%, down five basis points from last week.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says of the report, “While incoming economic signals indicate lower rates of inflation, we do not expect rates will decrease meaningfully in the near-term. On the plus side, inventory is improving somewhat, which should help temper home price growth.”
Current mortgage rates for April 10, 2024
The Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, though it sets benchmarks that indirectly affect rates on financial products like mortgages, personal loans and deposit accounts. The Fed has a firm goal of a 2% inflation rate, and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely the reserve will cut rates until that goal is within reality’s reach.
Mortgage rates in the news
Mortgage lenders keep a close eye on the key interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, the U.S.’s central bank. Called the fed rate, it’s the benchmark that affects rates on deposit accounts, loans and other financial products. Typically, as the Fed rate rises, so do APYs on savings products like CDs, high-yield savings accounts and money market accounts. Mortgage and home loan rates don’t follow the fed rate as closely, but they do reflect the same elements the Fed evaluates when making decisions on the benchmark — especially inflation.
Key inflation report due today
The Federal Reserve increased the target interest rate 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023 in an effort to combat the highest inflation in four decades coming out of the pandemic.
Economists are awaiting the release of today’s Consumer Price Index data, which will answer whether inflation is continuing to cool. February’s Consumer Price Index data released on March 12 showed a month-over-month increase in consumer prices — a widely used indicator for inflation. The new data makes for an interesting week, what with the latest Producer Price Index due for release tomorrow.
Federal benchmark: Summer rate cut now in question
At the conclusion of its rate-setting policy meeting on March 20, 2024, the Fed left the federal funds target interest rate of 5.25% to 5.50% unchanged, marking the fifth consecutive time it’s held rates steady since July 2023. In its post-meeting statement, the Federal Reserve maintained it wouldn’t cut the key interest rate until it’s confident “that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
While bankers forecast three rate cuts by the end of the year, a growing group of economists now doubt whether the Fed will cut interest rates this year — including Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, who told Pensions & Investments last week, “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all.”
Government agency Freddie Mac released its March 20 economic outlook on the housing and mortgage market that predicts mortgage rates to stay at 6.5% or higher through the summer.
NAR settlement could change homebuying
The summer homebuying season could bring with it a major change in the way Americans buy and sell homes. On March 15, the National Association of Realtors announced it had agreed to a settlement that, if approved by a federal judge, would bring an end to longstanding real estate broker commissions of up to 6% of a home’s purchase price. The settlement isn’t expected to affect mortgage rates, yet it paves the way for consumers to negotiate what they pay for an agent’s services, potentially saving homebuyers money in the long run — just in time for summer home sales.
4 top factors that affect your mortgage rate
The difference of even half a percentage point on your interest rate can save you hundreds of dollars a month and thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage, but the mortgage rate you’re ultimately offered depends on the mortgage you’re interested in, payments you’re willing to pay up front and your overall financial health.
Your credit score. Knowing your credit score can help you shop around for lenders you’re likely to get approval through, as well as understand the type of mortgage for your lifestyle and income. The best mortgage rates go to borrowers with good to excellent credit — typically a FICO credit score of at least 670 — though even with fair credit, you may be able to find a mortgage offering decent rates.
Your down payment. The more money you can put down toward your home, the better it benefits your interest rate. Paying at least 20% of your home’s purchase price up front generally results in a lower interest rate — and you can avoid mortgage insurance, which increases your total cost.
Your loan term. While the 30-year mortgage remains a popular way for Americans to purchase homes, you can find terms of 20 years, 15 years and 10 years. Shorter loan terms usually come with lower interest rates, though with higher monthly payments. Longer mortgage terms can result in smaller monthly payments, though you’ll pay higher total interest over the life of your loan.
Interest rate type. Mortgage rates come with two basic types of rates — fixed and variable. Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate over the life of your loan, whereas adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) often start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-on time and then adjust to a variable rate based on market conditions for the remainder of your term. Choosing between these two rates depends on your financial goals and tolerance for risk.
Frequently asked questions about mortgage rates
What are mortgage lenders?
Lenders are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. A lender is different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, talking directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.
What does it mean to refinance a mortgage?
Refinancing is a process of trading in your current mortgage to another lender for lower rates and better terms than your current loan. With a refinance, the new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then pay your monthly statements from the new lender.
What factors influence mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are determined by many factors that include inflation rates, economic conditions, housing market trends and the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate. Lenders also consider your personal credit score, the amount available for your down payment, the property you’re interested in and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.
When is the best time to lock in a mortgage rate?
Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan.
Can I negotiate my mortgage rate?
It’s not likely — lenders consider the market conditions and other financial factors when determining rates. You can, however, ask about how you can reduce costs in other ways when comparing mortgage lenders. For instance, many lenders offer lower rates in exchange for “mortgage points” — upfront fees you pay to your lender. A mortgage point could cost 1% of your mortgage amount, which means about $5,000 on a $500,000 home loan, with each point lowering your interest rate by about 0.25%, depending on your lender and loan.
Editor’s note: Annual percentage yields shown are as of Wednesday, April 10, 2024, at 7:45 a.m. ET. APYs and promotional rates for some products can vary by region and are subject to change.
We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we believe in. Pricing and availability are subject to change.
Kelly Suzan Waggoner
April 8, 2024 at 7:43 AM
Rates on popular 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgages start the week at under 7%, though with a week-over-week increase on most terms as of Monday, April 8, 2024.
The current average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.97% for purchase and 6.99% for refinance — up 9 basis points for purchase and 11 basis points for refinance over the past week. Increases on a 15-year term were a more modest 4 basis points week over week for both purchase and refinance, bringing rates to 6.48% for purchase and 6.42% for refinance. The average rate for a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 7.09%.
Purchase rates for Monday, April 8, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 6.97%
20-year fixed rate — 6.75%
15-year fixed rate — 6.38%
10-year fixed rate — 6.27%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.56%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.85%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.05%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.09%
Refinance rates for Monday, April 8, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 6.99%
20-year fixed rate — 6.74%
15-year fixed rate — 6.42%
10-year fixed rate — 6.28%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.42%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.94%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.69%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.08%
Freddie Mac weekly mortgage report
Freddie Mac reports an average 6.82% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, up three basis points from last week, according to its weekly survey of nationwide lenders published on April 4, 2024. The fixed rate for a 15-year mortgage is 6.06%, down five basis points from last week.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says of the report, “While incoming economic signals indicate lower rates of inflation, we do not expect rates will decrease meaningfully in the near-term. On the plus side, inventory is improving somewhat, which should help temper home price growth.”
Current mortgage rates for April 8, 2024
The Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, though it sets benchmarks that indirectly affect rates on financial products like mortgages, personal loans and deposit accounts. The Fed has a firm goal of a 2% inflation rate, and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely the reserve will cut rates until that goal is within reality’s reach.
Mortgage rates in the news
Mortgage lenders keep a close eye on the key interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, the U.S.’s central bank. Called the fed rate, it’s the benchmark that affects rates on deposit accounts, loans and other financial products. Typically, as the Fed rate rises, so do APYs on savings products like CDs, high-yield savings accounts and money market accounts. Mortgage and home loan rates don’t follow the fed rate as closely, but they do reflect the same elements the Fed evaluates when making decisions on the benchmark — especially inflation.
Federal benchmark: Summer rate cut expected
At the conclusion of its rate-setting policy meeting on March 20, 2024, the Fed left the federal funds target interest rate of 5.25% to 5.50% unchanged, marking the fifth consecutive time it’s held rates steady since July 2023. In its post-meeting statement, the Federal Reserve repeated earlier concerns about cutting its key interest rate until it’s confident “that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Bankers forecast three rate cuts by the end of the year, predicting the first to come not when the Fed meets again later this month, but instead at its summer meeting in June 2024.
The Federal Reserve increased the target interest rate 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023 in an effort to combat the highest inflation in four decades coming out of the pandemic. While inflation has cooled, Consumer Price Index data released on March 12 showed a month-over-month increase in consumer prices — a widely used indicator for inflation. The next CPI report is due for release next week on April 10, with inflation nowcasting from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggesting a welcome decrease in rates of inflation.
Government agency Freddie Mac released its March 20 economic outlook on the housing and mortgage market that predicts mortgage rates to stay at 6.5% or higher through the summer.
NAR settlement could change homebuying
The anticipated summer rate cut could coincide with a major change in the way Americans buy and sell homes. On March 15, the National Association of Realtors announced it had agreed to a settlement that, if approved by a federal judge, would bring an end to longstanding real estate broker commissions of up to 6% of a home’s purchase price. The settlement isn’t expected to affect mortgage rates, yet it paves the way for consumers to negotiate what they pay for an agent’s services, potentially saving homebuyers money in the long run — just in time for summer home sales.
4 top factors that affect your mortgage rate
The difference of even half a percentage point on your interest rate can save you hundreds of dollars a month and thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage, but the mortgage rate you’re ultimately offered depends on the mortgage you’re interested in, payments you’re willing to pay up front and your overall financial health.
Your credit score. Knowing your credit score can help you shop around for lenders you’re likely to get approval through, as well as understand the type of mortgage for your lifestyle and income. The best mortgage rates go to borrowers with good to excellent credit — typically a FICO credit score of at least 670 — though even with fair credit, you may be able to find a mortgage offering decent rates.
Your down payment. The more money you can put down toward your home, the better it benefits your interest rate. Paying at least 20% of your home’s purchase price up front generally results in a lower interest rate — and you can avoid mortgage insurance, which increases your total cost.
Your loan term. While the 30-year mortgage remains a popular way for Americans to purchase homes, you can find terms of 20 years, 15 years and 10 years. Shorter loan terms usually come with lower interest rates, though with higher monthly payments. Longer mortgage terms can result in smaller monthly payments, though you’ll pay higher total interest over the life of your loan.
Interest rate type. Mortgage rates come with two basic types of rates — fixed and variable. Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate over the life of your loan, whereas adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) often start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-on time and then adjust to a variable rate based on market conditions for the remainder of your term. Choosing between these two rates depends on your financial goals and tolerance for risk.
Frequently asked questions about mortgage rates
What are mortgage lenders?
Lenders are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. A lender is different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, talking directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.
What does it mean to refinance a mortgage?
Refinancing is a process of trading in your current mortgage to another lender for lower rates and better terms than your current loan. With a refinance, the new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then pay your monthly statements from the new lender.
What factors influence mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are determined by many factors that include inflation rates, economic conditions, housing market trends and the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate. Lenders also consider your personal credit score, the amount available for your down payment, the property you’re interested in and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.
When is the best time to lock in a mortgage rate?
Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan.
Can I negotiate my mortgage rate?
It’s not likely — lenders consider the market conditions and other financial factors when determining rates. You can, however, ask about how you can reduce costs in other ways when comparing mortgage lenders. For instance, many lenders offer lower rates in exchange for “mortgage points” — upfront fees you pay to your lender. A mortgage point could cost 1% of your mortgage amount, which means about $5,000 on a $500,000 home loan, with each point lowering your interest rate by about 0.25%, depending on your lender and loan.
Editor’s note: Annual percentage yields shown are as of Monday, April 8, 2024, at 7:45 a.m. ET. APYs and promotional rates for some products can vary by region and are subject to change.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates have largely held steady after a stronger-than-forecasted jobs report on Friday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.24% APR today, down -0.02 percentage points from last week, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
In its monthly report on job growth, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an employment gain of 303,000 new jobs for March with the unemployment rate decreasing slightly from 3.9% to 3.8%. These “eye-popping” numbers could mean the Federal Reserve will hold off even longer on lowering interest rates, said Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist at BOK Financial in an email sent to MarketWatch.
While positive for the overall economy, this does not seem to be welcome news for the housing market. Joel Kan, the Mortgage Banker Association’s deputy chief economist, said in a report on Wednesday that today’s relatively high mortgage rates have continued to slow down home buying. Refinance rates are also 5% lower than last year.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.24%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.58%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 7.03%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.20%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.24%
7.26%
-0.02
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.58%
6.52%
+0.06
5/6 ARM
7.03%
7.01%
+0.02
7/6 ARM
7.24%
7.18%
+0.06
10/6 ARM
7.28%
7.22%
+0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.20%
7.14%
+0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.91%
6.97%
-0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.96%
7.03%
-0.07
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Monday, April 08, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.02
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.24%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.02 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $681.50 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.26%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.06
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.58%, an increase of+0.06 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.58% will cost approximately $875.51 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.52% last week, you would’ve paid $872.21 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are up, +0.02
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 7.03%, an increase of+0.02 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 7.03% will cost approximately $667.32 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are up, +0.06
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.20%, an increase of+0.06 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$681.50
$682.85
-$1.35
15-Year Fixed Rate
$875.51
$872.21
+$3.30
5/6 ARM
$667.32
$665.97
+$1.35
7/6 ARM
$681.50
$677.43
+$4.07
10/6 ARM
$684.21
$680.14
+$4.07
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$678.79
$674.73
+$4.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$659.27
$663.29
-$4.02
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$662.62
$667.32
-$4.70
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
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3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates have cooled significantly over the past several months. After the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 8% last October, it ended 2023 closer to 7%. In fact, the average for Q4 2023 was 7.3%.
Analysts with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) both project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year.
Fannie Mae economists expect rates to drop more quickly, falling below 6% by Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the MBA’s forecast for Q4 2024 is 6.1% and 5.9% for Q1 2025.
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More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here. Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
Last April, when Bed Bath & Beyond held its store-closing sales after declaring bankruptcy, I popped into one of its Manhattan locations and found the shelves almost completely stripped of inventory, snagged by earlier shoppers who’d been quicker to the liquidation bargains. Dwell’s senior home guides editor Megan’s experience at another Manhattan location, though, seemed slightly less chaotic, and even in small but not insignificant ways gratifying. So last week, when Dwell’s managing editor Jack Balderrama Morley dropped a tweet in a team Slack channel pointing out the “crazy sales” at another major retailer, Joann, which on March 18 announced it filed for bankruptcy, and said: “Maybe a writer wants to go and see what home design can be pulled out of a dying store?” I bravely volunteered. Most of the online reactions I’d seen to Joann’s bankruptcy were more focused on corporate details than implications for crafters, but I assumed the news would circulate widely enough in at least some corners of TikTok’s DIY universe that the sales would generate a fairly quick clean out.
To be clear, my putting myself forward is only notable because from where I live in Manhattan, a trip to the craft store—or any department store, really—is a vastly different experience than in the suburbs. The Hudson, Ohio-based chain, which has operated for more than 80 years, has roughly 800 stores nationwide (all of which the company said will continue to operate as it restructures its finances). But none of those stores are in Manhattan, or even Brooklyn. Long Island has three locations, and there’s one in Scarsdale, about an hour’s drive north of my apartment (closer to Connecticut in actuality). Across the Hudson, there’s a Joann store in Paramus, New Jersey. Depending on the time of day, the drive is anywhere between 30 and 50 minutes.
My girlfriend and I have a Zipcar membership that we use almost solely for the purpose of completing another task that’s a vastly different experience when you live in New York City: grocery shopping. Every other month or so, we go to a Trader Joe’s outside of the city to stock up on groceries that we can drive home, not carry. We were due for another Big Shop and had also been talking about crafting over the weekend, since the forecast was gross and rainy. In Paramus, there’s a Trader Joe’s all but three minutes from Joann. So Paramus it was. We were making a Saturday of it.
The arts-and-crafts store, formerly known as Jo-Ann Fabrics, was a big part of my childhood. (Full disclosure: I was blissfully unaware of the 2018 rebrand and had been using the former moniker up until I learned about the recent bankruptcy filing, and am still having a tough time adjusting to the name change, in true millennial fashion.) In the early 2000s, the Jo(-)ann (Fabrics)(!) on the side of Highway 101 in Corte Madera, California, was where I bought fabric for weekly sewing classes with Winky Cherry (I’m serious), a kids’ sewing teacher and author, I’m just learning, who taught out of a downstairs room in her home. It’s where I found felt and appliqués for the DIY poodle skirts I wore to school sock hops. It’s also where I found the fabric, pom-poms, and ribbons I tasked my adult neighbor, whose children I babysat, with fashioning into a jester costume for me one Halloween; one side had blue fabric with a moon pattern, the other a maroon background with suns. There were elastic cinches at the wrists and ankles that created frilly cuffs. In retrospect, it was quite a vision for my young mind to conceive of, but stylistically…misguided.
Before last weekend, I hadn’t been back to one of the stores since that time in my childhood. One of Joann’s competitors, Michael’s, has locations in Brooklyn and Manhattan, and I sadly did not retain any sewing skills from Winky Cherry’s classes, so these days the selection there or at Blick Art Materials—of which there are many in New York City—does the trick for my occasional craft projects. I was expecting the scene to be somewhat depressing: sparse aisles stocked with the same art supplies you can now order to your front door on Amazon, piles of worse for wear fabric collecting dust, and nary a shopper born after the turn of the millennium (and that’s being generous). The latter, from my observation, was true, but other parts surprised me.
The clearance sale shelves at the front of the store, marked 25 percent off, were haphazardly stocked as though either winds of eager customers had already blown through them, spoiling any prior display order, or the employees had simply gathered items from other aisles—a partially unwound yarn bundle, decorative stickers, children’s trinkets, and, unexplainably, a pack of popcorn seasoning, and quickly dumped them in this section, knowing any real organization efforts wouldn’t be worth their while.
We set ourselves a $200 budget, keeping in mind a few DIY projects we discussed prior, and knowing that we like to keep a stock of craft supplies for impromptu projects, so this sale would be as good a time as ever to spend somewhat freely. First, we popped over to the bead aisles to scope out the four for $10 deals. We picked 15 bead strands—with between 10 to 40 beads per set, depending—and a roll of clear cord (for later necklace-making projects). We also grabbed a small organizer to keep the beads in; not on sale, but something we felt necessary, and reasonable for $4.50. The next aisles had some of the biggest steals we encountered: 10 for $5 on two-ounce acrylic paints, 50 to 70 percent off fine art canvases, and 25 percent off other art supplies, from paint brushes to sets of paint, pens, and colored pencils. We added a 10-pack of 8×10 canvases and two 5×5 canvases to our shopping cart, along with a 24-tube acrylic paint setand a few larger paint tubes, plus a can of black spray paint and some wooden semicircle cutouts for a DIY mirror project.
We walked toward the next part of the store we knew had something we wanted: fiber filling to revive our couch cushions, which we assumed we’d find near the fabric department. Between there and the robust yarn section, it felt, for a second, like we could be in any big box retailer of the home goods ilk. You could buy outdoor rugs, plant stands, picture frames, and storage containers just like what’s in stock at Target or Home Depot. In my memory, the Jo(-)ann (Fabrics)(!) of my youth was much less home decor-oriented.
Still, the crafts and sewing storage items were marked 50 percent off, so we grabbed three collapsible bins in the style of Hay’s recycled color crates for the space above our kitchen cabinets at $5.99 each. I also picked out an 11×14 black picture frame, with visions of repainting it with a two-tone trim using our new acrylics set. We grabbed two large bags of the fiber filling—40 percent off, $17.99 each—and at some point along the way picked up a five-pound bucket of air-dry clay, which ran us $6.99.
Every five or so aisles we’d pass another shopper, which, compared to the experience of shopping at most major retailers, is essentially like walking through a desert, but I’d imagined something much more vacant. I realized I was likely conflating my understanding of bankruptcy with the idea of returning to a forsaken mainstay from my childhood, so to see other customers at all made me feel like the place was sufficiently busy.
The general energy in the store, however, reminded me otherwise. At one point, I heard an exasperated yell from the next aisle, “Is it so hard for people to put things back where they fucking belong?!” I obviously had to check whose Public Display of Begrudge this was; when I walked past, there was only one woman, wearing a Joann apron and organizing inventory.
In the fabric section, we had to squeeze our cart past a plastic storage bin with wet floor signs on either side that was blocking most of the walkway in order to catch droplets from a ceiling leak. I saw another millennial-looking couple talking to a woman at the service counter and wondered what they were there for, feeling an instant sense of curiosity and camaraderie with the other shoppers visibly under 60. We thought about buying some fabric to fashion a small curtain/cabinet skirt to hide our eyesore kitchen trash area, but decided against it—mostly due to decision paralysis, but also because we weren’t sure anything from the fabric selection would even really improve the situation. (As a kid, the actual quality of Jo-Ann’s Fabrics was not something I noticed, apparently.)
At checkout, the sweet (older) cashier winced as our balance climbed and offered to add an extra coupon that was typically only available online to bring our total down. It seemed like she hadn’t rung up a $184.17 tab for anyone in a long time.
Our first DIY project was the easiest: we added the stuffing to our couch cushions, which have formed light indents in various spots because of my bad habit of WFH…from the couch. Then, we took some of the beads and Gorilla Glued them to a glass vase we already own. I painted the black picture frame with two blue acrylics and put a Really Bad Portrait of us from the Upper West Side flea market in it. (I’m still battling my partner to let us hang it up in the bedroom.)
Next, we spray-painted the wooden semicircles black and Gorilla Glued them to the side of our Ikea Hovet mirror, inspired by furniture we saw at Originario on a recent trip to Mexico City. (We still have enough left to do the same with another black mirror in our dining room.) We used some of the quick-dry clay to make a small, foot-shaped catchall—again, inspired by ceramics we saw in Mexico City. We’re still deciding on what to paint on the canvases, but now we have the supplies at the ready for when inspiration strikes. In fact, we’ve barely scratched the surface of what we bought on our haul, so that trip will last us many more DIY projects. And, should the clearance sales continue and we decide we want more bead deals or actually do want to give that cabinet skirt a try, our receipt has a promo code that can be used on Joann’s website, so we won’t have to brave another visit.
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Data dependent… That’s a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future path of interest rate decisions.
While rates always depend on data, the data outlook isn’t always as uncertain as it has been in the past few years. At times, we’ve been waiting for inflation and job growth to stop surging. At other times, we’ve been waiting for them to confirm a move in the other direction. Either way, there are a few reports that financial markets watch more closely than others and today’s jobs report is one of the best examples.
When job growth is higher than expected, the default reaction is for rates to move higher. The bigger the “beat” (which refers to the actual job count versus the median forecast among multiple economists), the bigger the rate jump tends to be, on average. With that in mind, today’s payroll count of 303k versus a median forecast of 200k was a big beat!
It was no surprise to see bonds lose ground and rates move higher, but the size of today’s rate increase is much more curious. The average lender was only modestly higher in rate.
It’s curious, but it may not be incredibly surprising. Again, it’s all about the data, and although Friday’s jobs report is definitely one of the two most important reports on any given month, next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is bigger. Today’s resilience could have a lot to do with the market waiting to see those results next Wednesday.
The 10-year yield has had a wild ride today, but now is an excellent time to look at my macro take on the labor market and explain what the Fed is looking for with the jobs data. The Fed recently said that the labor market getting weaker would force them to act more dovish on rate cuts, and that seeing vigorous job creation wasn’t a big concern. So, let’s look at where we are today with all the labor data and why mortgage rates are still high while the labor market is getting softer.
Since 2022, I haven’t believed the Fed would pivot until the labor market breaks. I believe too many people put too much weight on the inflation growth rate slowing as the primary driver for lower mortgage rates. Instead, I have focused on jobless claims data. My target has always been the same: jobless claims breaking above 323,000 on the four-week moving average is recessionary. We are far from that, and as you can see below, the growth rate of inflation has fallen, but bond yields and mortgage rates are still elevated because the labor market hasn’t broken yet.
Below, CPI inflation’s growth rate is at 3.2%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.36%. I know it’s wild to think, but we had lower rates with hotter inflation data.
The one data line that has been improving, which Chairmen Powell mentioned at the last press meeting, is jobless claims, which have been falling for months. If this data line ran above 300,000, we would have a different mortgage rate discussion today. Remember, the labor market is getting softer, but it’s not breaking. Once it breaks, that will force the Fed to move,and bond yields will have already gone lower.
How did we get here with the labor market? Here’s my explanation, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose all the way to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the job openings, quit percentage, and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was. The employment cost index has slowed recently as well. Today’s jobs report showed slower wage growth than earlier in the cycle.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September 2022. This would be a speedy labor market recovery at the time, and it happened on schedule, too.
4. This is the key one right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which is in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 158,133,000.This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when the average is 140,000 to 165,000monthly.So, for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140,000-165,000 means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
Less than a high school diploma: 4.9%
High school graduate and no college: 4.1%
Some college or associate degree: 3.4%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.1%
A positive trend for the Fed with a softer labor market is that wage growth is cooling down. The Fed can live with 3% wage growth and 1% productivity growth, and now that wage growth is slowly moving under 4%, they will feel more like pilots who can land the plane.
Productivity data has indeed been more robust recently. Still, the Fed doesn’t believe in the more robust productivity numbers, so wage growth closer to 3%- 3.5% is more in their comfort zone.
On a side note, a positive story in housing this year is that the mortgage spreads are improving, and we haven’t had a stress market event like last year to push them higher. This is a huge plus because if the spreads can get back to normal with lower yields, we have a sub-6% mortgage rate market and we can certainly work with that.
All in all, the labor report is showing the same trend I have been seeing for some time now: the labor market is getting softer, but we are still creating more jobs than I was expecting at this point of the cycle. If we are still growing jobs over 165K once we break over 159,000,000 then my forecast model was incorrect, and the labor dynamics are more robust than I anticipated, so less than 1,000,000 jobs left before we cross that bridge.
However, after considering all the drama we had to deal with this week, we came out okay on this jobs report. It does provide a path for the Federal Reserve to see the softer wage growth data and land the plane.
Rising mortgage rates this week cast further doubt on meaningful rate cuts happening soon for homebuyers.
The average rate for a 30-year loan inched past 7% this week, settling at 7.07% on Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
A separate measurement tracking weekly average rates rose to 6.82% from 6.79%, Freddie Mac reported.
Homebuyers continued to pull back as affordability challenges worsened and consumer optimism diminished over how soon and how much interest rates could ease this year. Waiting for loan rates to decline is now the top reason buyers say they are not actively searching for a home.
“Elevated mortgage rates have been a persistent market challenge, holding back first-time homebuyers and repeat homebuyers alike, albeit for different reasons,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “In order for rates to decline meaningfully and sustainably, inflation needs to be convincingly on a path to the Fed’s 2% target.”
Read more: Mortgage rates remain around 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Homebuyers stay on the sidelines
Homebuyer affordability continued to decline, with the US median mortgage payment increasing 2% monthly in February and 6% annually to nearly $2,200, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Rising mortgage payments across the US — driven by either higher interest rates or higher home prices, or both — have considerably cooled buyers’ demand.
The volume of home-purchase applications stayed unchanged this week and dropped 13% compared to the same week one year ago, MBA data showed.
“Challenging affordability conditions and low housing supply are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines this spring,” Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president, said. “The eventual, expected decline in rates in the coming months will hopefully spur new activity in the housing market.”
Expectations of a rate decline have been waning, though. Investors are now betting the Fed will cut rates by less than a percentage point instead of the 1.5% forecast at the beginning of 2024.
Despite the market shift, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently assured the public that inflation is easing and the central bank is still expected to cut rates at “some point” this year.
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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Although fourth quarter mortgage originations were flat year-over-year, nonbank lenders that could provide products through multiple means were able to grow their business during that tough period, a Morningstar DBRS recap found.
“In addition to affordability challenges, seasonality and competition also impacted volumes and pricing,” the report from Shaima Ahmadi, assistant vice president, North American financial institution ratings, said. “However, on an individual company basis, those with omnichannel organization models continued to grow originations in [the fourth quarter] as they were able to capture a higher share of the market versus those with less diverse channels and refi heavy models.”
The top mortgage lenders benefited by undertaking business restructuring and making strategic shifts in order to capture more purchase business, Ahmadi said.
A shift underway that might not be going well is taking place at Finance of America, which had been at one point a multi-channel forward lender. After several previous strategy shifts, the company elected to focus on reverse mortgages. As part of that strategy, it bought American Advisors Group, which helped to drive FOA to a 40% market share in that segment.
“Despite market share gains, when excluding forward organizations in 4Q22, FOA’s reverse mortgage origination volume was down a significant 56% YoY in 4Q23,” Ahmadi pointed out.
“Meanwhile, Rithm Capital Corp. has made a number of acquisitions of mortgage servicing and alternative asset management businesses over recent years as part of the company’s strategic shift to become a real estate asset manager. Companies also continue to diversify their basket of mortgage loan offerings with added complementary services.”
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s fourth quarter industry profitability survey found that independent mortgage bankers and bank mortgage subsidiaries, both public and privately held, lost an average of $2,109 on every loan produced.
Furthermore, servicing was a net financial loss for the group of $24 per loan, while operating income for this function, which excludes amortization, gains/loss in the valuation of servicing rights net of hedging gains/losses, and gains/losses on bulk sales, was $108 per loan.
Mortgage servicing rights proved to be a double-edge sword in the fourth quarter. Companies reported fair-value losses on their MSR portfolios — a requirement of mark-to-market accounting that is tied to potential prepayments — but servicing fee income was up.
The publicly traded nonbank lenders tracked in the Morningstar DBRS report had a 6% increase year-over-year in their portfolios. But that ranged from a 14% gain at Mr. Cooper, which was active in the bulk purchase market, to declines of 5% at Rocket and 4% at United Wholesale Mortgage; UWM has been a strategic seller of servicing rights as part of its risk management strategy, executives noted on its fourth quarter earnings call.
FOA actually had a larger percentage increase at 38%, but that was primarily reverse servicing picked up in the AAG deal, and among the nine companies listed, it has by far the smallest portfolio.
Even though its portfolio is now smaller, Rocket bought MSRs originated with high rates for the potential refinancing opportunity.
“Given where mortgage rates currently are, borrowers have little incentive to refinance,” Ahmadi said. “However, some companies indicated that they expect a meaningful rebound in refinance activity when rates fall below 6%.” While the MBA thinks rates will sink under that mark, Fannie Mae’s latest forecast calls for them to just get to that level by the end of next year.
For the group losses narrowed as improved gain on sales margins were partially offset by lower origination volume.
Gross gain on sales margins, inclusive of fee income, net secondary marketing income and warehouse spread, was 334 basis points in the fourth quarter, up from 329 basis points three months prior, the MBA survey reported.
“We would expect margins to remain under pressure in 1Q given the negative impact seasonality typically has on both 4Q and 1Q,” Bose George, an analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said in an April 1 note on the survey. “Industry profitability is likely to be flat to down in 1Q as volumes should once again be low due to the seasonality associated with the quarter and the elevated average mortgage rate.”
Several public companies also reported major one-off expenses, including Pennymac Financial Services, which recorded $158.4 million in expenses from an arbitration ruling in favor of Black Knight (now part of Intercontinental Exchange) over mortgage servicing technology including allegations of breach of contract and misappropriation of trade secrets.
Meanwhile, Mr. Cooper’s November 2023 cybersecurity incident hit its results to the tune of $27 million.
Ahmadi also noted that the nonbanks had higher leverage ratios year-over-year for the fourth quarter, as debt levels increased slightly but was primarily caused by financial losses eroding company equity.
“During [the fourth quarter], nonbank mortgage companies were active in the high yield market, raising unsecured funding, which was partially used to pay down upcoming maturities in 2025, which we view positively for their credit profiles,” Ahmadi said. “Indeed, unsecured debt issuances increase nonbank mortgage companies’ financial flexibility by decreasing balance sheet encumbrance.”
Both Rocket and Pennymac Mortgage Trust were able to reduce their leverage ratios. But FOA’s debt-to-equity ratio increased to 97.8x compared with 49.7x one year prior, while Ocwen’s was at 27.2x, versus 22.9x over the same period.