It’s no secret that interest rates are high. Though that may be good news for savers, it’s a harsh reality if you’re in the market for a new home. After all, high mortgage rates result in high mortgage payments. And, every quarter of a point of mortgage interest could represent thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
Today’s high interest rates are the result of the Federal Reserve’s work to temper inflation. But with inflation cooling, many experts predict that lower interest rates are on the horizon — a beacon of hope for homebuyers.
But when will mortgage rates start to fall? Will they drop below 5% in 2024? And is it even worth waiting for lower rates to buy a home? Here’s what you need to know.
Don’t wait. Learn more about your mortgage options today.
Will mortgage rates drop to 5% in 2024?
Current 30-year mortgage rates are averaging well over 7%. If it seems like it wasn’t long ago that rates were hovering below 3%, that’s because it wasn’t. Although sub-3% mortgage rates are likely a long way off, what are the chances that rates will fall to 5% in 2024?
Rates are currently high because the Federal Reserve has used increases in the federal funds rate target to combat inflation. That target sets the foundation for interest rates on loans.
The good news is that inflation is cooling, and many experts expect interest rates to move in a downward direction in 2024. Then again, a two-point drop would be significant, and even if rates fall, they’re not likely to get down to 5% within the next year.
After all, the Federal Reserve typically moves slowly when it comes to monetary policy changes. The central bank doesn’t want to shock the market by making moves too quickly.
Why you shouldn’t wait for 5% mortgage rates to buy a home
“Regardless of what the Fed does with respect to rates, I would never advise prospective homebuyers to try to time the market or trajectory of mortgage rates,” says Bob Driscoll, SVP and director of residential lending at Rockland Trust Bank. “Instead, they should focus on the factors they can control, such as the timing that works best for them in their unique financial and life circumstances and the values they are seeking in a home. Assessing these factors will result in a much higher pay-off emotionally for homebuyers in 2024.”
Here are a few other reasons why waiting for mortgage rates to drop could be a mistake:
Find out how affordable a mortgage loan can be now.
You could be waiting for quite a while
As noted, the Federal Reserve typically moves slowly when they make monetary policy changes. As a result, if rates do fall to 5%, it will likely take at least a couple of years to happen, barring some drastic, unexpected economic changes.
Ultimately, chances are you won’t be able to wait too long when it’s time to shop for a new home. You may need to move for a new job or because your lease is ending, or any number of other factors that might come into play. The simple fact is that you may not be able to wait the years it could take for mortgage rates to fall back to, or below, 5%.
Competition may get tougher
The housing market is a competitive one, but it’s not nearly as competitive as it was when interest rates were lower. After all, as interest rates rise, potential buyers leave the market. That means when interest rates fall, more buyers will likely enter the market.
When more buyers enter the market, it will be harder for you to make your offer stand out among the competition. Moreover, the law of supply and demand dictates that prices must rise alongside demand unless growth in supply keeps up — which isn’t likely in the housing market. So, if you wait too long, competition could drive prices higher.
You’re not building equity as you wait
If you don’t own your home, you’re probably renting. After all, you need to live somewhere. But there’s an inherent problem with renting. When you rent your home, you make monthly rent payments, but you don’t build a single dime in equity. As soon as the month is over, the value of your rent payment, at least to you, is spent.
Even if you purchase a home while mortgage interest rates are high, you’ll be building equity in your home with each mortgage payment. That’s equity you can fall back on in the future if times get tough.
Get on track to building equity by finding the right mortgage loan now.
The bottom line
Mortgage rates aren’t likely to fall to 5% any time soon, and waiting for them to do so could be a big mistake. Instead, consider buying a home now and taking advantage of a market with less competition. Then, when interest rates fall to a level you’re comfortable with for the long term, refinance your mortgage to take advantage of lower rates.
Joshua Rodriguez
Joshua Rodriguez is a personal finance and investing writer with a passion for his craft. When he’s not working, he enjoys time with his wife, two kids, three dogs and 10 ducks.
IndyMac Bancorp reported total loan production of $4 billion in November, largely unchanged compared to October, but down a staggering 53% from November 2006.
The wholesale channel saw production of $2.4 billion in November, up 1% compared to October, but down 20% from last year.
The Retail Lending Group produced $345 million, a 17% jump from October and a sharp increase from the $9 million produced in November 2006.
The mortgage lender noted that $2.95 billion of its total loan production in November was eligible for sale to the GSEs, but warned of further credit restrictions on loans Fannie and Freddie purchase.
“Growth in the pipeline and resulting production volume may be negatively impacted by further credit tightening currently being implemented by the GSEs that is requiring IndyMac to implement another round of credit guideline tightening,” the company said.
The value of Indymac’s loan pipeline at the end of November was $10.7 billion, up 9% compared to October, but down 20% from November 2006.
The lender’s servicing portfolio grew from $194 billion to $196 billion in the month of November, though 30+ day delinquencies (measured in unpaid principal balance) for the total servicing portfolio rose from 6.62% in October to 7.12% in November.
The company said 30+ day delinquencies in its prime first-lien loans (which account for 93.5% of the total servicing portfolio) increased from 5.80% in October to 6.25% in November.
Subprime 30+ day delinquencies continued to rise in November, up to 26.87% compared to 24.43% in October, though subprime loans comprise of only 2.8% of their total servicing portfolio, and have been completely discontinued.
Second mortgages (which represent 3.7% of their servicing portfolio) with 30+ day delinquencies increased from 12.17% in October to 13.68% in November.
As of September 30, IndyMac’s delinquency rate of 6.96% was markedly higher than the industry rate of 5.82%.
IndyMac blamed their product mix, which has historically been more prime/Alt-A loan based compared to the industry’s more agency/conforming mix, along with the fact that only 14% of its servicing portfolio consists of loans that were originated prior to 2005, before things got murky.
Despite this, Indymac continues to experience a lower foreclosure rate than the industry, at just 1.41% versus the 1.69% industry rate, as of September 30, 2007
IndyMac shares, which lost 87 percent of their value in 2007, were down 5 cents to $6.22 in afternoon trading on Wall Street.
Mortgage rates are based on bonds. Bonds react more to two monthly economic reports than any others. One of these is the jobs report which came out last week. The other is/was today’s consumer price index (CPI).
With Friday’s jobs report being arguably rather middle-of-the-road in terms of its rate implications, bonds/rates potentially had some pent up momentum behind today’s reaction.
Fortunately and unfortunately, today’s data was also fairly unequivocal relative to some recent examples. It caused a confused, 2-way reaction in bonds early in the day, but one that quickly gave way to mortgage-specific bonds holding their ground in a way that allowed mortgage lenders to keep rates in line with yesterday’s, or just a hair better.
As the day progressed, other developments led to additional gains in the bond market, thus allowing many mortgage lenders to reissue rates that were slightly lower still. The net effect is the average mortgage lender offering top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates at the lowest levels since last Wednesday. This isn’t an especially big move considering the narrow range since then, but at least it’s in everyone’s favorite direction.
Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.
Mortgage rates are set to go down in 2024, but when and how much largely depends on inflation and when the Federal Reserve starts cutting the federal funds rate.
Last week, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.26%, though they inched up a big higher toward the end of the week. Many experts believe we could see rates end up near 6% or lower by the end of the year.
But hotter-than-expected economic data could shift that timeline. On Thursday, we’ll see the Consumer Price Index data for December. Inflation has slowed significantly since it peaked in 2022, but it’s still a bit above the Fed’s target rate.
The Fed has indicated it may be ready to cut rates this year, and markets have priced in a possible 25-point cut at the Fed’s meeting in March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But stubborn inflation could mean we’ll have to wait until later in the year for the Fed to cut rates, which would likely mean a longer wait for lower mortgage rates as well.
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Mortgage Calculator
Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Mortgage Calculator
$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.62% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This is a single basis point increase from the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.89% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a four-basis-point drop from the previous week.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Up?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.1%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
The Wall Street Journal reported today that Bank of America is in advanced talks to acquire ailing mortgage lender Countrywide Financial.
According to the Journal, two people familiar with the matter said it may happen very soon, but noted that it’s also possible that any agreement could be delayed or fall apart altogether.
It is believed that an announcement regarding the matter will be made either late today or tomorrow morning.
In August, many believed Bank of America was gearing up to take over Countrywide after buying $2 billion in preferred shares convertible to about a 16% stake in the company.
But since then, Countrywide shares have fallen tremendously, briefly dipping to $4.43 Wednesday, an all-time low for the struggling Calabasas-based lender.
Shares of Countrywide rocketed shortly after the report was released, climbing $3.27, or 63.87%, to $8.39 in late afternoon trading on Wall Street, while Bank of America rose marginally.
Bank of America now holds 9.88% of the country’s deposits after its acquisition of LaSalle Bank in September, just below the federal limit which prohibits a bank from controlling more than 10% of U.S. deposits.
However, the law does not apply to federally chartered thrifts, one of which happens to be Countrywide Bank.
If successful, the deal would bring together the top U.S. mortgage lender with the second largest bank in the United States.
Nearly a year ago, the two financial giants met to discuss a possible alliance when Countrywide was trading around $42.
Bank of America declined to comment, as it doesn’t respond to rumors or speculation, while Countrywide representatives failed to respond to a request for a comment.
Shares of related companies surged as well, with IndyMac up over 16%, MGIC up 12%, Fannie up more than 6%, and Washington Mutual gaining more than 11%.
In similar news, Legg Mason revealed a 9.08 percent passive stake in Thornburg Mortgage, up from 4.35 percent, according to a previous SEC filing.
Updates: The New York Stock Exchange said it has contacted Countrywide, asking the company to make a statement regarding the unusual activity of its stock.
Analysts believe regulators would likely approve the takeover because a possible bankruptcy would further disrupt the market.
Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo could receive $36.4 million if the company were to be taken over, according to regulatory filings and compensation experts.
The deal looks like a go…and should be announced tomorrow. Sources say it’s an all-stock deal valued at just over $4 billion.
Rumors: There are some interesting rumors floating around regarding the takeover news.
Some say that the deal was facilitated by Washington, who couldn’t possibly let the top lender fail. Apparently the Countrywide bankruptcy rumors may have been true.
Others say there was another interested buyer, but Bank of America has the right of first refusal.
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed’s target level, it wasn’t the triumph it might have been. Even so, rates managed to move lower.
Mortgage rates and, indeed, most rates are determined by trading levels in the bond market. Bond yields/rates move higher when inflation is high, and the market has been waiting on signs of lower inflation before trading in a way that allows interest rates to move lower.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest name in monthly inflation reports. It’s caused big reactions in rates many times over the past few years. In recent months, it’s been showing more and more promise regarding a return to inflation levels that would allow for significantly lower rates.
But CPI has given false hope before, so traders are wary. This week’s report definitely stopped short of providing resounding confirmation that inflation is defeated. That said, it didn’t send any signals that were too troubling either.
With that in mind, it’s not too surprising that rates actually didn’t move much in response to CPI. If anything, the initial impulse was toward slightly higher rates. It wasn’t until the following day’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that bond traders saw better evidence of calmer inflation. Both CPI and PPI have been moving lower, but PPI is now all the way back down to target levels.
The following chart shows how 10yr Treasury yields (which tend to correlation with mortgage rate movement) were reacting throughout the week:
Note the initially bad reaction to CPI. There was a recovery that same afternoon for a variety of potential reasons. At least one of those reasons had to do with speculation that the Fed is still on track to deliver a series of rate cuts this year in addition to making rate-friendly changes to the way it’s managing its bond portfolio. Fed policy expectations are even easier to see when we look at actual Fed Funds Rate expectations which are now at the lowest levels since July.
Mortgage rates don’t correlate perfectly with Fed Funds Rate expectations (one reason we often advise that a Fed rate cut/hike doesn’t mean a mortgage rate cut/hike). As such, they’re not back below the recent lows, but they definitely haven’t moved much higher. This week’s gentle descent means we’re continuing to hold a vast majority of the improvement seen in Nov/Dec.
Looking ahead, while next week doesn’t have any economic data on the same level as CPI, Wednesday’s Retail Sales report can definitely move the needle. It’s expected to improve slightly to 0.4% month over month after hitting 0.3% last time.
Beyond the data, we’ll hear from several Fed speakers and there’s been some speculation that Waller’s appearance at the Brookings Institute will bring some important concepts regarding the precursors for friendlier rate policy in 2024. That will happen on Tuesday, which is the first business day of the week next week due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
While not as much of a factor for interest rates, we’ll also get updates on several key housing metrics including new home construction, builder confidence, and Existing Home Sales.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday. That was a bit of a surprise (though a welcome one) because yesterday’s inflation report would normally have pushed them higher. Read on for why markets might have reacted unexpectedly.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might fall. But these early mini-trends often switch direction or speed as the hours pass — as we saw yesterday.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
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Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.015%
7.03%
-0.07
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.28%
6.31%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.91%
6.93%
-0.065
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.09%
6.125%
-0.14
30-year fixed FHA
5.875%
6.545%
-0.3
30-year fixed VA
5.99%
6.14%
-0.085
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.31%
7.56%
-0.005
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Yesterday’s fall in mortgage rates showed markets continuing to have faith in a “soft landing,” which will occur if we continue to see falling inflation together with a resilient economy. Indeed, it suggests that faith can’t be shaken even by occasional unfriendly data.
I think a soft landing remains the most likely scenario for 2024.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 3.93% from 4.04%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $74.42 from $72.80 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices climbed to $2,065 from $2,036 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched lower to 73 from 75. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
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What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Yesterday
I suspect that Wall Street has bought the narrative of a soft landing (see above) and, for now, is prepared to stick to it through thick and thin. That’s my only real explanation for why mortgage rates fell yesterday despite an unfriendly inflation report.
True, some saw the report as less unfriendly than others. The New York Times (paywall), for example, reported it under the headline, “Price Increases Tick Higher, but Show Moderation.”
But the consumer price index (CPI) was undeniably worse than expected. And that would normally exert some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Still, let’s not give this gift horse too close a dental inspection.
Today
Producer price indexes (PPIs) are typically less important than CPIs. But they still sometimes affect mortgage rates.
Today’s PPI showed factory-gate and wholesale prices rising more slowly than expected. And that would normally be good for mortgage rates. However, as we saw yesterday, markets don’t always follow such “rules.”
Next week
Rather like this week, next week starts slowly but contains an important economic report. Things are especially quiet on Monday because bond markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. And closed bond markets mean mortgage rates shouldn’t move. (So, we shall not be publishing this daily report on Monday.)
Tuesday’s similarly dull with no economic reports scheduled for release.
However, Wednesday is potentially next week’s big day for mortgage rates, led by the retail sales report for December. But, after that, things tail off again.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Jan. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.66%, up from the previous week’s 6.62%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the last quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight announced yesterday that it is changing the way Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must identify and report mortgage fraud in an effort to minimize the ongoing problem.
Specifically, the new policy guidance was altered to require that both companies “immediately” report “insider fraud”, which is defined as knowledge that “a board member, officer, employee, or contractor engaged by the enterprise has or may have engaged in mortgage fraud or possible mortgage fraud”.
The enhanced rules also require the two mortgage financiers to report any pattern of conduct or behavior that is “interpreted as mortgage fraud or possible mortgage fraud”.
In a statement released yesterday, OFHEO director James Lockhart noted that it was important to update the guidance of fraud reporting to help protect consumers and the government sponsored entities.
“Mortgage fraud can pose tremendous risks for consumers,” said Lockhart. “This guidance reflects the ongoing work of both OFHEO and the Enterprises in the development and improvement of mortgage fraud detection and reporting,” he added.
Per the OFHEO, the new policy guidance:
– Permits the Enterprises to designate scenarios that rise to a “pattern” of reportable cases of mortgage fraud or possible mortgage fraud further enhancing their reporting to OFHEO;
– Expands the immediate notification requirements to OFHEO to include situations involving insider fraud;
– Revises the time frame and format of reporting to follow the Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network requirements; and,
– Adds clarifications to the definition of mortgage fraud, which continues to be defined as any material misstatement, misrepresentation, or omission such as, but not limited to, false information contained in identification and employment documents, false mortgagee or mortgagor identity, fraudulent appraisals, theft of custodial funds, non-remitted payoff funds, misrepresentations of borrower funds, and property flipping where designed to falsely inflate property value.
Jumbo Loans
According to an OFHEO report just released, assuming Congress decides to raise the conforming loan limit, Fannie and Freddie would likely only purchase low-risk jumbo loans.
These include fixed-rate mortgages and fully amortizing mortgages, which made up only 30% of jumbo loan originations in the first half of 2007, according to the report.
If a proposed bill were to be enacted, the new conforming loan limit for Los Angeles and Orange County could range from $568,000 to $588,400, and be as high as $625,500 in the Bay area.
But the OFHEO has found a number of drawbacks to raising the conforming limit, including greater credit risk which could have a negative impact on both the GSE’s and the common borrower.
PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, but sometimes it makes a dent. Today is one of those times, likely because PPI was at least willing to offer a thought about inflation that broke from the forecast consensus in a way that yesterday’s CPI did not. Specifically, CPI’s most important component (core M/M) came in at 0.3 vs a 0.3 forecast. Contrast that to this morning’s PPI that showed core M/M at 0.0 vs a 0.2 f’cast and the market feels like it has something small to trade.
Here’s a “food for thought” chart on core PPI vs CPI. It begs the question: why doesn’t the market pay more attention to PPI? It seems to have done a good job being an advance indicator at first glance. But the clue is the 2015 time frame when PPI fell to near zero while CPI continued higher and never swooned.
WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 10, 2024) — Mortgage applications increased 9.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 5, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the New Year’s holiday.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 45 percent compared with the previous week. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index increased 19 percent from the previous week and was 30 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index increased 53 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 40 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Despite an uptick in mortgage rates to start 2024, applications increased after adjusting for the holiday,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The increase in purchase and refinance applications for both conventional and government loans is promising to start the year but was likely due to some catch-up in activity after the holiday season and year-end rate declines. Mortgage rates and applications have been volatile in recent weeks and overall activity remains low.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 38.3 percent of total applications from 36.3 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.4 percent of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications decreased to 14.4 percent from 14.5 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 16.3 percent from 14.6 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent the week prior.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.76 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $726,200) increased to 6.98 percent from 6.86 percent, with points increasing to 0.43 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 6.56 percent from 6.51 percent, with points decreasing to 0.84 from 0.86 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.41 percent from 6.26 percent, with points decreasing to 0.55 from 0.73 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 6.17 percent from 5.71 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mba.org/WeeklyApps, contact [email protected] or click here.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.