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Mortgage loans refinancing declined for the week ending March 22, contributing to a drop in home loans applications even as interest rates decelerated, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.
The Refinance Index fell 2 percent from the prior week and was 9 percent lower compared to a year ago. Overall, mortgage applications dropped by 0.7 percent at a time when the 30-year fixed rate mortgage ticked down to 6.93 percent from the prior week’s 6.97 percent.
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
Read more: What is Mortgage Refinancing and How Does It Work?
The drop in refinancing applications comes as the housing market has been in flux nationwide.
Borrowing costs for home loans jumped to their highest since the turn of the century last year, peaking at about 8 percent in the fall. That jump in mortgage rates was sparked by the Federal Reserve hiking rates to their highest in more than two decades as policymakers moved to tighten financial conditions to battle soaring inflation. Expectations that the central bank will start lowering those rates has helped bring mortgage rates down.
Recent data suggests that buyers are still looking for lower borrowing costs. New home sales declined in February, amid high mortgage rates that economists say depressed activity as the housing market enters its busy Spring season.
Kan said on Wednesday that still elevated mortgage rates are still keeping buyers on the sidelines.
“Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market,” he noted.
Kan suggest limited housing inventory is also proving to be a hindrance to the market.
“Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6-percent by the end of the year,” he said. “Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”
Read more: Best Mortgage Lenders
The lock-in effect was particularly acute in the existing homes market. Most homeowners have low mortgage rates which has discouraged them from putting their properties in the market if that means they may have to acquire a new home with borrowing costs closer to 7 percent. About 90 percent of homeowners own mortgages that are under 6 percent, according to real estate platform Redfin.
There have been some signs recently that the existing homes market is recovering after struggling mightily last year.
In February, sales of previously owned homes rose by nearly 10 percent.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
“Mortgage rates rose in February, and the elevated rates took a bite out of new home sales,” said Holden Lewis, home expert at NerdWallet. “They declined slightly from the previous month, although sales were 6% stronger than 12 months earlier. Builders are competing with home resales by constructing new homes for buyers on a limited … [Read more…]
This has kept single-family permits from falling and kept construction workers employed to build and finish the backlog of single-family homes in the pipeline.
We obviously can’t say that the apartment marketplace and permits are back to recession lows.
So, for now, homebuilders can still keep construction workers employed in the single-family housing market as they slowly work through the backlog of homes.
From Census: New Home Sales: Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
As we can see below, new home sales aren’t booming. We are still at the level seen in the 1990s, so no record-breaking demand is happening here like we saw in the run-up to 2005, which took new home sales up to 1.4 million. However, slow and steady wins the race.
For sale inventory and months’ supply: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 463,000. This represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate.
Here’s my model for understanding the builders:
This housing cycle is unique due to the historic backlog of homes the builders still have, so they will be mindful to ensure they can sell those homes once they’re completed units. If the original contract buyer can’t buy now, they must ensure they can sell that new home to a new buyer. As you can imagine with 8.4 months of supply, don’t expect the builders to be building single-family homes in a big fashion. They will go nice and slow because they’re not the March of Dimes; they’re here to make money.
One of the things I like to do is break down the monthly supply data into subcategories. People sometimes believe that the monthly supply of new homes means live, completed homes ready to buy, but that isn’t the case. In this report:
As shown below, we only have 85,000 completed homes ready for sale.
This report had some minor positive revisions to the previous month, so to keep things simple, as long as mortgage rates don’t head toward 8%, new home sales have the backdrop to grow sales if rates are in the 6% range because they can buy down rates to a sub-6% level to move homes. It gets much more expensive for them to do this at 8%.
Source: housingwire.com
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What a difference a month makes: Economists at Fannie Mae no longer expect mortgage rates to fall below 6 percent this year or next and believe that “dual affordability constraints” of high home prices and mortgage rates will also keep 2024 home sales from hitting a previously forecast 5 million mark.
Last month, Fannie Mae’s eight-member forecasting team was projecting that rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would drop to an average of 5.9 percent by the final three months of the year and that sales of new and existing homes would total 5.0 million.
In their latest monthly housing forecast Tuesday, Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group projected mortgage rates will average 6.4 percent during Q4. While 4.91 million homes are expected to change hands this year, deals will be driven primarily by households that can no longer put off moves due to life events.
“The housing market is likely to continue to face the dual affordability constraints of high home prices and elevated interest rates in 2024,” Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said in a statement. “Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast, as markets continue to evolve their expectations of future monetary policy.”
Even if mortgage rates stay elevated, sales of new and existing homes are expected to be stronger than last year, although the projected rebound isn’t quite as strong as Fannie Mae had forecast last month.
“We believe an increasing number of transactions will be driven by households who can no longer put off their moves simply due to interest rate lock-in effects because they need to move for life event reasons,” Fannie Mae economists said in commentary accompanying their latest forecast.
Sales of existing homes, which make up the bulk of most real estate agents’ businesses, are now projected to grow by only 3 percent in 2024, to 4.21 million. That’s about 47,000 fewer existing home sales than forecast in February.
Sales of new homes are expected to grow by close to 5 percent this year, to 699,000, which is down 35,000 from last month’s forecast for 734,00 new home sales in 2024.
“While existing sales rose 3.1 percent in January to an annualized pace of 4.0 million, these increases reflected mortgage rates in November and December,” Fannie Mae economists noted. “Pending sales, which lead closings on average by a month or two, fell in January by 4.9 percent, pointing to a likely pullback in February.”
Last month, Fannie Mae forecasters were predicting that rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages would fall to 5.9 percent in Q4 2024 and 5.7 percent in Q4 2025. The latest forecast is that rates will make a more gradual descent to 6.0 percent by Q4 2025.
“Strong headline jobs numbers and hotter-than-expected inflation data … led financial markets to price in a less aggressive rate-cutting path by the Federal Reserve,” Fannie Mae economists said in predicting that mortgage rates have less room to come down than previously thought.
While economists with the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted in February that mortgage rates would drop to 5.5 percent by Q4 2025, their March forecast hadn’t been issued Tuesday.
This year’s rally in mortgage rates kicked off with a surprisingly strong jobs report on Feb. 2, which put to rest speculation that the Federal Reserve might begin lowering the short-term federal funds rate in March.
Purchase mortgage applications fell for five consecutive weeks before mortgage rates began to ease again in early March. But more recent inflation data has been pushing mortgage rates higher again since March 11.
The CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks futures market investors’ expectations of the Fed’s next moves, on Tuesday put the odds that the Fed will approve one or more rate cuts by June 12 at just 59.5 percent, down from 76.2 percent on Feb. 16.
But it’s not just when the Fed starts cutting short-term rates, but how deeply it might cut over the next two or three years that’s of importance to investors who fund most mortgages.
“In our view, whether the Fed begins cutting interest rates in June or later in the year is likely to have only a small impact on the macroeconomy and mortgage rates,” Fannie Mae economists said. “In contrast, we believe the market’s expectations of the cumulative change in the fed funds rate over the next two to three years will likely have a more meaningful impact on mortgage rates.”
Unlike the short-term federal funds rate, the Fed doesn’t have direct control over mortgage rates, which are determined largely by investor demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). But having purchased trillions of dollars in MBS and Treasurys to keep interest rates low during the pandemic, the Fed does have influence in MBS markets that determine mortgage rates.
“Quantitative tightening” — the Federal Reserve’s ongoing program to trim $35 billion in mortgages from its balance sheet each month — could keep mortgage rates from falling dramatically this year.
When Fed policymakers meet Wednesday, they’re expected to keep their target for the short-term federal funds rate at 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent. But Fannie Mae economists say bond market investors are expecting some discussion of the quantitative tightening policy, which Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has said is falling short of expectations.
In a March 1 speech, Waller said he’d like to see the Fed reduce its $2.4 trillion in mortgage holdings to zero. But because few homeowners have an incentive to refinance their existing loans, the Fed has been falling short of its target of reducing its MBS holdings by $35 billion a month.
Rather than actively selling MBS, the Fed has been letting those investments roll off its balance sheet passively, by not replacing assets that mature. But that strategy has only been trimming the Fed’s MBS balance sheet by about $15 billion a month.
To hit the $35 billion a month target, the Fed would have to start selling MBS. Even the threat of such a move might push mortgage rates higher, prompting real estate industry groups to plead with the Fed in October to go on record that it would not sell mortgages the central bank bought during the pandemic.
With home prices expected to stay elevated, purchase mortgage originations are expected to post 12 percent growth this year, to $1.367 trillion, a downgrade of $90 billion from last month’s forecast, followed by 13.5 percent growth in 2025, to $1.551 trillion.
“We have downgraded our outlook for purchase originations due to downgrades to the home sales forecast (which in turn stems from a higher mortgage rate outlook), as well as incoming data indicating a continued higher cash share of purchase transactions occurring,” Fannie Mae economists said.
Refinancings are projected to grow 60 percent this year from last year’s anemic levels, to $397 billion, or $62 billion less than forecast in February. Next year Fannie Mae is forecasting another 58 percent increase in refinancing volume, to $626 billion, as lower rates give more homeowners an incentive to refinance.
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Source: inman.com
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.
As rates were hitting year-to-date highs, the fear was that the Fed would go hawkish in their March meeting, which could push mortgage rates toward 8% and tank 2024 demand. Thankfully, that didn’t happen, and — as I said on the HousingWire Daily podcast last week —we dodged a bullet.
Let’s look at the tracker data to see how mortgage rates are impacting the housing data as we settle into spring.
For those of you who have me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work. A break of this level could send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8% for spring 2024. Not only did this not happen last week, but bond yields fell during the week. As we can see below, we have held the line once again, but we aren’t out of the dark forest yet.
As we can see in the chart below, the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have made a massive move higher since 2022. However, whenever the 10-year yield falls with duration, as we saw toward the end of 2022 and into 2023, it sends mortgage rates lower, and we can grow sales from these record-low levels.
Purchase application data really moves on mortgage rates — something we saw in late 2022 and into 2023. As rates ticked up recently, purchase apps were down 1% week to week and down 14% year over year.
Since November 2023, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints. What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? When mortgage rates fall, demand picks up. Imagine a housing market with just 6% mortgage rates or lower — it would be growing like what we see in the new home sales market.
Weekly housing inventory data
The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly. The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also new listings. We’re not seeing seller stress in the inventory data but just a typical increase in inventory when rates are higher, which looks perfectly normal.
Here is a look at the inventory last week:
New listing data is growing! This data line is slightly lower than I hoped for for 2024, but we are still growing. Right now we are a tad below the levels we saw in 2022 before mortgage rates spiked over 6%. Here’s the weekly new listing data for last week over several previous years:
For some historical context, in 2011, new listings this week were at 362,339 .
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Keep it simple here, folks: inventory is growing year over year; if demand stays weaker with higher rates, the price-cut percentage data should increase faster, and if demand picks up with lower rates, it shouldn’t. As we can see below, the data line is very seasonal, like most housing data.
Next week, we have new home sales, pending home sales and the national home price index data. I will be on CNBC Monday morning to discuss the new home sales report. Of course, the Fed’s main inflation indicator, the PCE, will come out on Friday, which is a trading holiday, which will be key for rates short-term until we have the next Fed meeting. So, we have a lot of data to work with this week.
Source: housingwire.com
From Census: Building Permits: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000.
When people say housing leads us in and out of a recession, it is a valid premise and that is why people carefully track housing permits. However, this housing cycle has been unique. Unfortunately, many people who have tracked this housing cycle are still stuck on 2008, believing that what happened during COVID-19 was rampant demand speculation that would lead to a massive supply of homes once home sales crashed. This would mean the builders couldn’t sell more new homes or have housing permits rise.
Housing permits, starts and new home sales were falling for a while, and in 2022, the data looked recessionary. However, new home sales were never near the 2005 peak, and the builders found a workable bottom in sales by paying down mortgage rates to boost demand. The first level of job loss recessionary data has been averted for now. Below is the chart of the building permits.
On the other hand, the apartment boom and bust has already happened. Permits are already back to the levels of the COVID-19 recession and have legs to move lower. Traditionally, when this data line gets this negative, a recession isn’t far off. But, as you can see in the chart below, there’s a big gap between the housing permit data for single-family and five units. Looking at this chart, the recession would only happen after single-family and 5-unit permits fall together, not when we have a gap like we see today.
From Census: Housing completions: Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,729,000.
As we can see in the chart below, we had a solid month of housing completions. This was driven by 5-unit completions, which have been in the works for a while now. Also, this month’s report show a weather impact as progress in building was held up due to bad weather. However, the good news is that more supply of rental units will mean the fight against rent inflation will be positive as more supply is the best way to deal with inflation. In time, that is also good news for mortgage rates.
Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,521,000. This is 10.7 percent (±14.2 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000 and is 5.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the February 2023 rate of 1,436,000.
Housing starts data beat to the upside, but the real story is that the marketplace has diverged into two different directions. The apartment boom is over and permits are heading below the COVID-19 recession, but as long as the builders can keep rates low enough to sell more new homes, single-family permits and starts can slowly move forward.
If we lose the single-family marketplace, expect the chart below to look like it always does before a recession — meaning residential construction workers lose their jobs. For now, the apartment construction workers are at the most risk once they finish the backlog of apartments under construction.
Overall, the housing starts beat to the upside. Still, the report’s internals show a marketplace with early recessionary data lines, which traditionally mean mortgage rates should go lower soon. If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long and restrictive policy by the Fed created a recession as we have seen in previous economic cycles.
The builders have been paying down rates to keep construction workers employed, but if rates go higher, it will get more and more challenging to do this because not all builders have the capacity to buy down rates. Last year, we saw what 8% mortgage rates did to new home sales; they dropped before rates fell. So, this is something to keep track of, especially with a critical Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Source: housingwire.com
Lately, mortgage rates have surged higher, climbing from as low as 2% to over 8% in some cases.
Despite this, home builders have been enjoying healthy sales of newly-built homes.
And somewhat incredibly, they haven’t had to lower their prices in many markets either.
The question is how can they continue to charge full price if financing a home has gotten so much more expensive?
Well, there are probably several reasons why, which I will outline below.
The first thing working in the home builders’ favor is a lack of competition. Typically, they have to contend with existing home sellers.
A healthy housing market is dominated by existing home sales, not new home sales.
If things weren’t so out of whack, we’d be seeing a lot of existing homeowners listing their properties.
Instead, sales of newly-built homes have taken off thanks to a dearth of existing supply.
In short, many of those who already own homes aren’t selling, either because they can’t afford to move. Or because they don’t want to lose their low mortgage rate in the process.
This is known as the mortgage rate lock-in effect, which some dispute, but logically makes a lot of sense.
At the same time, home building slowed after the early 2000s housing crisis, leading to a supply shortfall many years later.
Simply put, there aren’t enough homes on the market, so prices haven’t fallen, despite much higher mortgage rates.
There’s also this notion that home prices and mortgage rates have an inverse relationship.
In that if one goes up, the other must surely come down. Problem is this isn’t necessarily true.
When mortgage rates rose from record lows to over 8% in less than two years, many expected home prices to plummet.
But instead, both increased. This is due to that lack of supply, and also a sign of strength in the economy.
Sure, home buying became more expensive for those who need a mortgage. But prices didn’t just drop because rates increased.
History shows that mortgage rates and home prices don’t have a strong relationship one way or the other.
Things like supply, the wider economy, and inflation are a lot more telling.
For the record, home prices and mortgage rates can fall together too!
So we know demand is keeping prices mostly afloat. But even still, affordability has really taken a hit thanks to those high rates.
You’d think the home builders would offer price cuts to offset the increased cost of financing a home purchase.
Well, they could. But one issue with that is it could make it harder for homes to appraise at value.
One big piece of the mortgage approval process is the collateral (the property) coming in at value, often designated as the sales price.
If the appraisal comes in low, it could require the borrower to come in with a larger down payment to make the mortgage math work.
Lower prices would also ostensibly lead to price cuts on subsequent homes in the community.
After all, if you lower the price of one home, it would then be used as a comparable sale for the next sale.
This could have the unintended consequence of pushing down home prices throughout the builder’s development.
For example, if a home is listed for $350,000, but a price cut puts it at $300,000, the other homes in the neighborhood might be dragged down with it.
That brings us to an alternative.
Instead of lowering prices, home builders seem more interested in offering incentives like temporary rate buydowns.
Not only does this allow them to avoid a price cut, it also creates a more affordable payment for the home buyer.
Let’s look at an example to illustrate.
Home price: $350,000 (no price cut)
Down payment: 20%
Loan amount: $280,000
Buydown offer: 3/2/1 starting at 3.99%
Year one payment: $1,335.15
Year two payment: $1,501.39
Year three payment: $1,676.94
Year 4-30 payment: $1,860.97
Now it’s possible that home builders could lower the price of a property to entice the buyer, but it might not provide much payment relief.
Conversely, they could hold firm on price and offer a rate buydown instead and actually reduce payments significantly.
With a 3/2/1 buydown in place, a builder could offer a buyer an interest rate of 3.99% in year one, 4.99% in year two, 5.99% in year three, and 6.99% for the remainder of the loan term.
This would result in a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,335.15 in year one, $1,501.39 in year two, $1,676.94 in year three, and finally $1,860.97 for the remaining years.
This assumes a 20% down payment, which allows the home buyer to avoid private mortgage insurance and snag a lower mortgage rate.
If they just gave the borrower a price cut of say $25,000 and no mortgage rate relief, the payment would be a lot higher.
At 20% down, the loan amount would be $260,000 and the monthly payment $1,728.04 at 6.99%.
After three years, the buyer with the higher sales price would have a slightly steeper monthly payment. But only by about $130.
And at some point during those preceding 36 months, the buyer with the buydown might have the opportunity to refinance the mortgage to a lower rate.
It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a possibility. In the meantime, they’d have lower monthly payments, which could make the home purchase more palatable.
Price Cut Payment |
Post-Buydown Payment |
|
Purchase Price | $325,000 | $350,000 |
Loan Amount | $260,000 | $280,000 |
Interest Rate | 6.99% | 6.99% |
Monthly Payment | $1,728.04 | $1,860.97 |
Difference | $132.93 |
At the end of the day, the easiest way to lower monthly payments is via a reduced interest rate.
A slightly lower sales price simply doesn’t result in the savings most home buyers are looking for.
Using our example from above, the $25,000 price cut only lowers the buyer’s payment by about $130.
Sure, it’s something, but it might not be enough to move the needle on a big purchase.
You could take the lower price and bank on mortgage rates moving lower. But you’d still be stuck with a high payment in the meantime.
And apparently home buyers focus more on monthly payment than they do the sales price.
This explains why home builders aren’t lowering prices, but instead are offering mortgage rate incentives instead.
Aside from temporary buydowns, they’re also offering permanent mortgage rate buydowns and alternative products like adjustable-rate mortgages.
But again, these are all squarely aimed at the monthly payment, not the sales price.
So if you’re shopping for a new home today, don’t be surprised if the builder is hesitant to offer a price cut.
If they do offer an open-ended incentive that can be used toward the sales price or interest rate (or closing costs), take the time to consider the best use of the funds.
Those who think rates will be lower in the near future could go with the lower sales price and hope to refinance. Just be sure you can absorb the higher payment in the meantime.
Read more: Should I use the home builder’s lender?
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
“Builder sentiment has improved as interest rates have dropped and buyers have begun to return in increasing numbers,” said Kelly Mangold, principal at RCLCO Real Estate Consulting. “As fears of a significant recession lessen, buyers who have been sidelined for the past year or more feel more confident about making a purchase.” Read more: Is … [Read more…]
With the market for existing homes struggling amid a lack of inventory, New Home Sales continue doing the heavy lifting for the housing market. Rather, New Home Sales are doing more to show a stronger relative performance to the pre-pandemic years. The market for existing homes is still far bigger, even at its weakest levels.
But existing home sales data is so “last week.” Today’s release is specific to new homes, so let’s zoom in. When we do, we can see new home sales remaining in the 2017-2019 range for nearly two years now.
In other words, new residential sales continue chugging along without much fanfare since the initial supply glut and demand surge that followed covid-related lockdowns.
There was quite a bit of variation depending on geography, which is often a result of ebbs and flows of weather events at this time of year. Here’s how the chips fell in January by region:
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
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Saturday was George Thorogood’s 74th birthday, and fans know that he wrote the classic tale of rent collection, land ladies, and payment avoidance. Time flies, but that may change. We’re faced with an actual five-day workweek this week, with no Federal holidays until Memorial Day, May 27th, two months away! Yikes. Here in Houston at the TMBA’s Southern Secondary Conference, the attendees are already making use of what time they have, discussing best execution procedures, warehouse tactics, management strategies, economic trends, the market for servicing, and operational efficiencies. I’m a capital markets guy, so arguably learned math good. But I didn’t learn math like this! MBS versus cash sales pick-ups is always a favorite topic, although last year the market was deluged by excess servicing trades. Flow and bulk purchasers of HELOCs and 2nds is search being undertaken by some, as well as climate change and insurance cost increases. (Found here, this week’s podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products – nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics – unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Today’s has an interview with Yardsworth’s Matt Lucido on creative ways that homeowners can leverage their tappable equity, and how we can see more supply hit the market.)
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software
Promising Updated MBA Forecast: The MBA released their recent forecasted predictions on mortgage originations (1 to 4 family). A welcome sight is that they predict a 25+ percent increase in 2Q over 1Q 2024 and a 13 percent increase in 3Q over 2Q 2024. In addition, the 3Q 2024 prediction is nearly 22 percent higher than the same quarter in 2023’s actual originations. As volumes continue to rise quickly, having a solid quality control program is as important as ever in order to continue to produce quality loans while mitigating risk. Quest Advisors has nearly 30 years of experience in assisting mortgage lenders with their quality control needs. Examples of services Quest Advisors provides, are Post-Closing and Prefunding loan QC reviews, along with Servicing, HMDA, and MERS audits. To find out more information on how Quest Advisors can help, please reach out to Matthew Reich at (336) 404-1409.
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Is More Paperwork Heading Our Way?
Do we need more rules and regulations and paperwork, or better rules and regulation and paperwork? The federal bank regulatory agencies announced their first of a series of requests for comment to reduce regulatory burden. The Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act of 1996 requires the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council and federal bank regulatory agencies to review their regulations every 10 years to identify any outdated or otherwise unnecessary regulatory requirements for their supervised institutions.
To facilitate this review, the agencies divided their regulations into 12 categories and are first soliciting comments on their regulations in three categories: Applications and Reporting, Powers and Activities, and International Operations. Comments on the relevant regulations will be accepted for 90 days after publication in the Federal Register.
But Ballard Spahr reports that on February 16, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Center (“FinCEN”) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (“NPRM”) regarding residential real estate. The final version of the NPRM published in the Federal Register is 47 pages long. We have created a separate document which more clearly sets forth the proposed regulations themselves, at 31 C.F.R. § 1031.320, here.
“FinCEN also has published a Fact Sheet regarding the NPRM, here. The Fact Sheet, slightly over four pages long, is helpful and walks through the basics of many of the proposed requirements. The NPRM proposes to impose a nation-wide reporting requirement for the details of residential real estate transactions, subject to some exceptions, in which the buyer is a covered entity or trust. Title agencies, escrow companies, settlement agents, and lawyers need to pay particular attention to the NPRM because, based on FinCEN’s “cascade” approach to who should be responsible for complying with the reporting requirements, these parties are the most likely to be responsible.
”Rent Versus Own” Economics
If you’re still paying off your mortgage, renting is likely cheaper than owning in each of the nation’s 50 largest metros. Median rent costs are lower than median homeowner costs for those with mortgages but higher than costs for homeowners without mortgages. LendingTree analyzed housing data to compare monthly rental and housing payments for homes with and without mortgages in the 50 largest metros in the U.S.
The difference between median housing costs for homes with a mortgage and median gross rent is $563 a month. The spread in costs between renting and owning a home with a mortgage is widest in the San Jose, Calif., San Francisco, and New York metros. The difference between the median monthly housing costs for homes with a mortgage and the median monthly gross rent in these metros is $1,341, $1,303, and $1,289, respectively. Phoenix, Orlando, Fla., Jacksonville, Fla., and Atlanta have the narrowest gaps between renting and owning a home with a mortgage. In Phoenix and Orlando, median gross rent costs are $87 and $145 less than median monthly housing costs for homes with a mortgage. In both Jacksonville and Atlanta, the difference is $216.
That said, Barron’s reports that, “Prospective buyers spent the President’s Day holiday last week window shopping, early data suggest. ‘Showing activity was strong,’ says Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow, citing data from home tour software company Showingtime. Home touring activity was up 19.4% from the start of the year, pointing to a strong seasonal ramp-up.”
Capital Markets
Markets are known for “getting ahead of themselves,” and the latest example may be the “insatiable demand” for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips. The stock has shot up, resulting in the company briefly surpassing a $2 trillion valuation. But other equity prices have tagged along, boosting the general stock market.
That said, investors have been walking back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Goldman Sachs, for example, has pushed back expectations for a Fed rate cut to June. If you like rates where they are, fine. If you’re hoping for lower rates to jump start your business in the near future, well…
The dominating market narrative recently has been that while interest rate cuts may be appropriate at some point this year, it is not likely to be anytime soon. Resilient economic growth and optimism that inflation will continue to fall in the face of high interest rates has fostered household demand, bolstered expectations the U.S. will avoid a downturn in the near term and forced investors to ratchet back bets on early rate cuts. Philadelphia Fed President Harker warned against betting on early rate cuts late last week, saying “I will signal my belief that we’re ready for a rate decrease when all the data, both the hard and the soft, give me that signal.” Pricing in fed funds futures has all but erased the chance of a March rate cut, and the chance of a cut in June is currently a coin-toss. Economists now see a 40 percent chance of recession in the next year, the lowest reading since mid-2022.
Last week was fairly quiet in terms of economic releases and the few that came out did nothing to change the current narrative of U.S. economic conditions. The Leading Economic Index declined 0.4 percent versus a -0.3 percent forecast and is now just two points above its April 2020 low. Historically, the prolonged decline observed in this data set predates a recession, but at the moment, it appears this recession signal is out of step with current economic conditions. Elsewhere, existing home sales rose 3.1 percent in January thanks in part to declining mortgage rates in December.
Since then, rates have moved back up towards 7 percent. The FOMC has repeatedly indicated it is in no hurry to begin reducing the fed funds rate until they are fully confident inflation is sustainably moving towards their 2 percent goal.
This week opens with $169 billion in month-end supply over the first two days along with the usual $309 billion in Treasury bills. There are several important economic releases with the highlight being the Fed-favorite PCE price index for January is on Thursday. We will also receive durable goods for January, home price indexes for December, consumer confidence for February, the second reading on Q4 GDP, Chicago PMI for February, January construction spending, and final February consumer sentiment.
The deadline for Congress to avert a partial government shutdown is Friday. Today starts quietly with new home sales for January, expected to register 680k versus 664k in December, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index for February, and remarks from the new Kansas City Fed President Schmid. The Treasury will auction $63 billion 2-year notes, $70 billion 6-month bills, $63 billion 5-year notes, and $79 billion 3-month bills. We begin the week with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from Friday’s close and the 10-year yielding 4.24 after closing last week at 4.26 percent. Helping ARM rates, the 2-year is down to 4.68 percent.
Jobs and Transitions
Logan Finance is hiring! Non-QM Account Executives are in high demand at Logan Finance, especially those of you in Florida. Contact us today to learn more. Speaking of hiring, Logan is happy to announce that Ryan Rathert and Sarah Gonzalez have joined the executive team as Chief of Staff and Chief Operating Officer, respectively. Ryan is a proven mortgage finance wizard and Sarah a renowned industry maven, so put your sunglasses on, because the future at Logan is bright! And the spotlight will be on Logan’s SVP Business Development, Paul Jones, as he presents “Discover the DSCR Difference with Logan Finance”, session #2 in the monthly series, “The Modern Non-QM Experience”. Join Paul on March 6 at 2pm ET. Register here. If you’re looking for a Non-QM career boost, send your resume or check out LoganWholesale.com and LoganCorrespondent.com for more information. Join Logan and become a #LoganLeader today.
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Click n’ Close, a multi-state mortgage lender serving consumers and mortgage originators through its wholesale and correspondent channels and formerly known as Mid America Mortgage, announced Polly Cracchiolo has joined the organization’s third-party originator (TPO) sales team as an account executive.
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Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com