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We may get some more clarity on how mortgage rates will trend this year when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April’s Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday.
Over the last week, 30-year mortgage rates have hovered in the upper 6% range, according to Zillow data. But if this latest inflation report shows that prices rose faster than expected last month, rates could jump back up above 7%. Rates have been very sensitive to economic data this year, so however the report turns out, be prepared for rates to move up or down.
Most forecasters expect mortgage rates to go down this year, but they’re unlikely to fall until inflation slows further and the Federal Reserve starts lowering the federal funds rate.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation nowcast, core CPI may show some signs of slowing in April’s report, which would be good news for mortgage rates.
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Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today’s mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
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$1,161 Your estimated monthly payment
Total paid$418,177
Principal paid$275,520
Interest paid$42,657
Paying a 25% higher down payment would save you $8,916.08 on interest charges
Lowering the interest rate by 1% would save you $51,562.03
Paying an additional $500 each month would reduce the loan length by 146 months
By plugging in different term lengths and interest rates, you’ll see how your monthly payment could change.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.09% last week, according to Freddie Mac. This is 13 basis points lower than it was the week before.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most common type of home loan. With this type of mortgage, you’ll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won’t change for the life of the loan.
The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you’ll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms or adjustable rates.
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Average 15-year mortgage rates were 6.38% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a nine-basis-point decrease from the previous week.
If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you’ll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.
Are Mortgage Rates Going Down?
Mortgage rates increased throughout most of 2023. But mortgage rates are expected to trend down in the coming months and years.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.5%. As inflation comes down and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should fall further as well.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home’s value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you’re borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you’d do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
How Do Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages?
The Fed aggressively raised the federal funds rate in 2022 and 2023 to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. As a result, mortgage rates spiked.
Mortgage rates aren’t directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed hikes to affect the broader economy.
Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Traditionally speaking, the spreads between the 10-year and mortgage rates is 1.60%-1.80%. Right now, the difference between them is 2.60%. However, compare that to the worst levels last year, when the spread got as high as 3.10%. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates.
For the rest of the year, it’s all about the labor market. The bond market has tried three times to front-run a recession or weaker economic data by pushing long-term yields lower, only to be rebuffed by labor data not breaking. So, keep an eye on weekly jobless claims data, and all the jobs report reports that come out at the end of the month. You can find the latest update on that data line here.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data was positive week to week but still down year over year. We are seeing better positive sales growth on our weekly pending sales data. This can be partly due to a higher percentage of cash buyers in the sales mix that purchase applicatoins won’t account for. Also, purchase application data can be a funky data line to sometimes track the percentage. I will talk about this on the HousingWire Daily podcast on Monday.
Since November 2023, when mortgage rates started to fall, we have had 12 positive prints versus nine negative prints and two flat prints week-to-week. Year to date, we have had six positive prints, ninenegative prints and two flat prints.
Weekly housing inventory data
Last week was another week that missed my inventory growth model with higher rates. I am always looking for weekly inventory growth between 11,000 and 17,000 when rates are over 7.25%. Rates have fallen recently and inventory growth was higher last week than the previous week. However, I anticipated a bit more kick than the increased inventory of 8,727 that we got. So, we shall see how next week looks. Let’s remember, it’s Mother’s Day weekend this weekend. Next week, inventory should surpass the highest levels we saw last year.
Weekly inventory change (May 3-May 10): Inventory rose fro559,744 to 568,471
The same week last year (May 5-May 12): Inventory rose from 420,489 to 421,101
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,109,727
New listings data
One of the most encouraging housing developments for 2024 — in stark contrast to 2023 — is the year-over-year growth in new listings. This is a significant shift, considering 2023 marked the lowest level ever recorded. The fact that this data line is now positive is a very promising sign for the housing market. While the growth rate is slightly lower than anticipated for this year, it’s still a step in the right direction. Despite a decline in the past week, we are maintaining positive year-over-year growth.
Here’s the new listings data for last week over the last several years:
2024: 68,843
2023: 61,911
2022: 73,107
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut — this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates increase, demand falls, and the price-cut percentage grows. When rates drop and demand improves, the percentage falls.
The percentage of price cuts is growing year over year as inventory is growing. The slope of the curve in 2024 is much slower than we saw in 2022. In 2022, we saw real price declines in the second half of the year as home sales were crashing. They’re not crashing anymore so the action with the price cut percentage data is a bit slower than at that time, but growing year over year
2024: 33.7%
2023: 30%
2022: 21%
The week ahead: Inflation week and housing starts
It’s that time again: it’s another inflation week with CPI and PPI inflation reports. Of course, some of the inflation reports have disappointed the Federal Reserve, so we will keep a close eye on the key numbers in these reports. We also have housing starts data, which is key to the labor markets as 5-unit permits have been in a recession for some time now. I want to see what the apartment completion data looks like because labor is at risk once those apartments under construction are completed. Since we focus so much on the labor data and the direction of mortgage rates, tracking construction workers in each economic cycle is essential.
Barry Sternlicht, cofounder, chairman, and CEO of the $115 billion real estate giant Starwood Capital Group, is worried about the more than 4,000 regional and community banks in the U.S. With the real estate industry struggling against higher interest rates, vacancies, and inflation, its lenders of choice may be in for some pain, according to the billionaire investor.
“I think people are looking for these cracks and you’re going to see the cracks develop now. You’re going to see a regional bank fail every day, or not—every week, maybe two a week,” he told CNBC Tuesday.
Despite Sternlicht’s prediction, just one U.S. bank has failed so far this year: Republic First Bank, a regional lender that operated in Philadelphia, New York, and New Jersey. The bank collapsed and had roughly $6 billion in assets and $4 billion in deposits seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) after facing issues with rising interest rates among its sizable commercial real estate holdings.
Sternlicht has warned about pending problems due to rising interest rates in the real estate and banking sectors—as well as the whole economy—for more than two years now. In September 2022, just a few months after the Federal Reserve began raising rates to fight inflation, he said that officials were using “old inflation data,” particularly related to housing, to attack the economy unnecessarily. A month later, Sternlicht followed up that criticism by arguing that the entire economy was “breaking hard” due to soaring borrowing costs, and a recession was all but inevitable.
But with the U.S. proving its resilience to higher interest rates and inflation by the summer of 2023, Sternlicht admitted his recession calls were premature, saying that he “did not understand the strength of the consumer.” However, the billionaire real estate guru still believes certain segments of the economy can’t withstand Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s rapid rate hikes, including real estate and regional banking.
“He’s got a hard task, with a blunt tool, and the consequence is the real estate markets are taking it on the chin because rates rose so fast. We could have handled this, but we couldn’t handle it this fast,” Sternlicht said. “The 1.9 trillion of real estate loans, that’s a fragile animal right now.”
Calling on the Fed to lower rates—again
While many segments of the real estate sector are struggling—for example, multifamily property values are down 26.9% from their second-quarter 2022 peak—the office sector has faced more headaches than any other.
The combination of higher interest rates (which raised borrowing costs and reduced asset values) and the rise of hybrid work (which increased vacancy rates) hit the office owners particularly hard over the past few years. In January, Sternlicht even told Bloomberg the office real estate market is experiencing an “existential crisis” at this point, and could face $1 trillion in losses. If his prediction proves prescient, that would lead to serious issues for regional and community banks that hold real estate debt but don’t have the large balance sheets to navigate excessive loan losses.
Multiple Wall Street analysts, strategists, and real estate industry leaders have warned about potential issues at regional banks due to underwater real estate loans over the past year. Scott Rechler, CEO of the New York–based real estate investor, operator, and developer RXR, told Fortune in March that regional banks are essentially facing a “slow-moving train wreck.” With wave after wave of commercial real estate loans maturing over the next few years, and values in the sector plummeting, banks will struggle to deal with rising loan losses, Rechler argued.
“I think there’s going to be…500 or more fewer banks in the U.S. over the next two years,” he warned. “I’m not saying they’re all going to fail, but they’re going to be forced into consolidation if they don’t fail.”
For Sternlicht, at least some of this nightmare could be avoided if the Fed decides to cut interest rates. “One way to get capital into those banks is to lower rates, so it basically makes their assets worth more,” he said.
The billionaire CEO argued that community banks are worth saving, given they are critical to the “fabric” of the American economy, making loans to small businesses or farms that larger banks often ignore. The good news? Sternlicht believes Powell will cut rates sooner rather than later, potentially saving some of these banks.
Sternlicht argued that interest rate hikes are no longer having the desired effect in reducing inflation, instead inflicting unnecessary damage to real estate and regional banks—and Powell is starting to see that.
He noted that most Americans’ mortgages are also fixed low interest rates, “so the rise in rates didn’t change their income,” and Fed policy doesn’t really impact gas, food, or insurance prices directly—some of the key categories causing the current bout of stubborn inflation. In Sternlicht’s view, interest rate hikes might not be providing the anti-inflation medicine they’re supposed to. And finally, with the $34 trillion national debt weighing on the federal government’s budget, Sternlicht argued that Chair Powell will want to lower interest rates to reduce interest costs. “I think that rates will come down,” he concluded. “Powell looks like he’s looking for a reason to bring them down.”
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In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There’s really no way to know such things in advance, but this time is an exception.
While we can’t have any idea which direction rates will move next week, we can be sure that we’ll see more volatility. Part of the reason is that the outgoing week would have been hard pressed to be any less volatile. For rates, it was largely an aimless drift apart from two offsetting reactions to calendar events on Thursday and Friday (highlighted below).
Thursday’s sharper drop in bond yields followed a higher reading in the weekly Jobless Claims data. This was one of the only economic reports that came out this week. It showed an abnormally large change that resulted in the highest reading since August 2023. While this could prove to be an outlier, it got the market’s attention in the morning.
Thursday afternoon saw relatively strong at the scheduled auction of 30yr Treasury bonds. In general, strong auctions put downward pressure on yields/rates, all other things being equal. The present example was worth roughly the same amount of improvement as the Jobless Claims data.
While the bond market was already pushing back in the other direction on Friday morning, the Consumer Sentiment data kept things moving in the same unfriendly direction. This was not the usual case of stronger economic data pushing rates higher. In fact, headline consumer sentiment was much lower than expected.
Rather, it was a component of the report that measures consumers’ inflation expectations. This came in much higher than expected, and higher inflation is a much bigger consideration for rates at the moment.
Who cares what consumers think about inflation anyway? It’s not like they decide the price of “stuff.” True as that may be, consumer expectations play a role in purchasing behavior which, in turn, influences demand-driven changes in inflation. It’s not a perfect relationship, but there’s strong general correlation over time.
But the inflation data everyone’s waiting for is right around the corner, and this brings us to the other part of the reason that higher volatility is a lock for the coming week. On Wednesday, May 15th, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released.
No other economic report has been as likely to cause big swings in financial markets recently. It is the first, broad, official look at inflation on any given month and, again, inflation is the biggest problem for rates these days.
Q1 inflation proved to be persistently higher than expected–a fact that coincides with interest rates moving up a fair amount from the lows seen at the end of 2023.
Some experts think the trend of elevated inflation will continue while others still expect it to start calming down any month now. With each new CPI, we get another chance to see a sign of a friendly shift. Granted, one month of data won’t work any miracles, but the market is very sensitive to the mere possibility of a shift.
There will be other economic data as well, including Retail Sales and several housing related reports, but there is no doubt about the main event. Incidentally, both Retail Sales and CPI will be released at the same time, 8:30am ET, on Wednesday morning.
The Bank of England has kept interest rates at a 16-year high for at least another month, as governor Andrew Bailey said Threadneedle Street would not bow to political pressure to cut rates.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), announced its latest decision at midday on Thursday, opting to keep the current rate of 5.25 per cent – set last August – in a blow to those hoping for the first reduction since 2020.
High interest rates have saddled homeowners with soaring mortgage repayment costs, and are used as a tool to help bring down inflation.
While the rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in March, experts had suggested that two key economic indicators – pay growth and services sector inflation – have remained more stubborn.
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In positive news, the Bank improved its forecasts on Thursday to predict that CPI inflation would fall to 2.25 per cent next year and to 1.5 per cent in 2026, and said it expected the UK economy to grow by 0.5 per cent this year and 1 per cent in 2025 – slightly higher than previous predictions.
Key Points
Breaking: Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.25%
Governor Andrew Bailey says Bank will not bow to political pressure
Inflation will fall to 1.5 per cent within two years, Bank forecasts
Pay growth and services sector inflation remain stubborn
Voices: Improving the economy may limit a Tory wipeout, but it won’t save Rishi Sunak
16:02 , Andy Gregory
We’re pausing updates on the liveblog for this evening, thanks for following here.
You can read our latest reporting on the Bank of England’s announcement by clicking here, or else keep scrolling to catch up on the day’s events as we reported them.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the Bank of England’s decision on rates was “finely balanced”.
Asked if he had been hoping rates would be cut ahead of the general election, Mr Hunt said: “I welcome the fact the Bank of England’s obviously thought about this very hard, they take this decision independently.
“And I would much rather that they waited until they’re absolutely sure inflation is on a downward trajectory than rush into a decision that they had to reverse at a later stage.
“What we want is sustainably low interest rates, and I think what’s encouraging is that the Bank of England governor, for the first time, has expressed real optimism that we’re on that path.”
Bank of England will not wait for US Federal Reserve to cut rates, says Bailey
14:59 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England will not wait for the US Federal Reserve to move on interest rates before it decides to cut rates in the UK.
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said: “There is no law that the Fed has to go first. Moreover, we have a remit and a target that is related to domestic inflation in the UK.”
He added that the Bank will always “take the rest of the world into consideration”, but only in regard to how it affects domestic inflation.
“But there’s no law which says we can only move after the Fed moves. That is not something that ever gets discussed in the MPC.”
Bank of England ‘getting very close’ to first rate cut since 2020, says economist
14:41 , Andy Gregory
James Smith, ING developed markets economist, said: “The Bank of England is getting very close to its first rate cut. That much is clear from the latest policy statement which, while keeping rates on hold at 5.25%, has a distinctly more optimistic flair.
“It echoes recent comments from governor Andrew Bailey, who has been hammering home the message that the UK’s inflation outlook is quite different to the US.
“We’re still leaning slightly more towards an August start date for rate cuts, though it’s a close call. What isn’t in doubt is that the Bank is comfortable with moving ahead of the US Federal Reserve.”
Bank of England will not bow to political pressure to cut rates, says Bailey
14:22 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England will not bow to increased pressure from politicians to cut interest rates, its governor has said.
Andrew Bailey said: “We are an independent central bank. We have a very clear remit. It’s our duty to exercise our duty at all times. When we are sitting in a room as the Monetary Policy Committee, we never discuss politics … It isn’t a consideration in that respect.”
It comes amid a period of heightened pressure from some MPs on the Bank to move faster on rate cuts in the run-up to a general election later this year.
When pressed on whether an upcoming election could influence how the Bank makes its decisions on rates, Mr Bailey added: “We will take the decisions at each meeting which are consistent with our remit. That’s our job and we will do our job.”
Inflation to fall before rising slightly before end of year, says Bank
14:04 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England has predicted that lower oil and gas prices mean that inflation is likely to drop to around 2 per cent in the coming months before rising slightly before the end of the year.
Inflation could fall noticeably below target without rate cuts, says Bailey
13:52 , Andy Gregory
Here are more comments from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.
He told reporter: “It’s likely that we will need to cut bank rates over the coming quarters and make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive over the forecast period, possibly more so than currently priced into market rates.
“This will be consistent with ensuring that inflation does not fall noticeably below target at the end point of the forecast.”
Pound falls against the dollar
13:35 , Andy Gregory
The pound fell against the US dollar and euro after the Bank of England signalled growing support for an interest rate cut among policymakers.
Sterling fell 0.3 per cent to $1.246 and was 0.2 per cent lower at €1.161.
Financial markets more pessimistic than Bank of England, Bailey indicates
13:17 , Andy Gregory
Andrew Bailey has indicated that the financial markets are more pessimistic about the path for lowering interest rates than the Bank of England.
“With the progress we’ve made, to make sure inflation stays around the target, it is likely that we’ll need to cut bank rates in the coming quarters, possibly more so than is currently priced into markets,” he said.
The Bank governor said the committee has “no preconceptions” about how far and how fast it can lower interest rates, and it make a judgment based on the economic data it sees before each meeting.
Visualised: How have interest rates changed over time?
12:58 , Andy Gregory
The below graph shows how interest rates have changed over the past decade:
Bank has not ruled out cutting rates next month, says governor
12:49 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England has not ruled out cutting rates at its next Monetary Policy Committee decision.
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that upcoming economic data would be key to helping the MPC decide whether to cut rates on 20 June.
He said: “Before our next meeting in June, we will have two full sets of data – for inflation, activity and the labour market – that will help us in making that judgement afresh.
“But, let me be clear, a change in bank rate in June is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli.”
Full report: Bank of England holds base rate for ninth consecutive month
12:20 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 5.25 per cent for the ninth month in a row.
My colleague Jane Dalton has more in this report:
Bank of England holds interest rates at 5.25% despite hopes of cut
Inflation will fall to 1.5 per cent within two years, Bank of England forecasts
12:14 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England has projected that inflation will fall more than previously thought over the coming years – dropping below its 2 per cent target to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
Headline CPI inflation is expected to fall below the Bank’s 2 per cent target between April and June, but rise again to 2.6 per cent in the second half of this year as the impact of recent drops in energy prices fades.
In the longer term, the Bank dropped its projections for CPI inflation to 2.25 per cent for 2025 and 1.5 per cent in 2026, down 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points respectively on the Bank’s February estimates.
The projection came in the Bank’s May Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) report, which signalled optimism from recent falls in retail inflation. The report said persistently high interest rates had helped push headline inflation down.
Bailey signals optimism that Bank could soon cut rates
12:10 , Andy Gregory
Governor Andrew Bailey has signalled optimism that the Bank of England could soon cut rates.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of seven to two to keep rates unchanged – with members Dave Ramsden and Swati Dhingra voting to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points.
Mr Bailey said: “We’ve had encouraging news on inflation and we think it will fall close to our 2 per cent target in the next couple of months.
“We need to see more evidence that inflation will stay low before we can cut interest rates. I’m optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.”
The MPC indicated it is still looking for more progress on factors including services inflation and wage growth, which have remained persistently high at about 6 per cent, before cutting rates.
Bank of England expects economy to grow by 0.5% this year
12:08 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England said it expects the UK economy to grow by 0.5 per cent this year and 1 per cent in 2025 – slightly higher than previous predictions.
Breaking: Bank of England holds rates at 5.25 per cent
12:01 , Andy Gregory
The Bank of England has opted to keep interest rates at a 16-year high of 5.25 per cent – confounding hopes of the first base rate cut since 2020.
We’ll bring you more updates here as we get them.
BoE chief unlikely to give clear signal on when interest rate cut could come, economist predicts
11:08 , Andy Gregory
Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey is unlikely to give a clear signal on exactly when the bank’s first interest rate cut since 2020 might come – but focus will be on what guidance he does give and if more than one member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee votes for a cut this time around, according to Pimco economist Peder Beck-Friis.
“We know from history that policy meetings may create some volatility,” Mr Beck-Friis said.
“What is also interesting is that we have come from a few years where monetary policy has been very correlated globally … but as the pandemic shocks fade I think it is natural that we see some divergence,” he added – pointing to how Sweden and Switzerland had already cut rates while the US may need to wait longer.
Pound falls against US dollar
09:23 , Andy Gregory
The pound edged lower against the US dollar this morning ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting, with the central bank expected to hold rates steady but flag when it intends to lower the cost of borrowing.
According to LSEG data, money markets are pricing in an almost 95 per cent chance that the Bank will hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.25 per cent – the highest since 2008. But investors will be watching for signs of when the first interest rate cut in four years will come as inflation falls.
Markets now see a 56 per cent chance of such move in June – when the European Central Bank has already signalled it will reduce borrowing costs, and a greater chance of 72 per cent of a BoE rate cut in August.
London stocks waver ahead of Bank of England announcement
08:40 , Andy Gregory
London stocks wavered this morning as investors turned cautious ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision – while energy shares gave a boost to the benchmark index.
As of 7:17am, the blue-chip FTSE 100 edged up 0.1 per cent at 8,357.85, hovering below its record high of 8,365.28 points. The mid-cap FTSE 250 edged lower by 0.1 per cent.
The pound slipped against the US dollar and the UK’s benchmark 10-year gilt yield was at 4.155 per cent ahead of the decision.
Investors avoided big bets ahead of Threadneedle Street’s interest rate decision due at 11am, where the central bank is widely expected to keep borrowing costs steady.
Bank of England to shed more light on its predictions for the economy today
06:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
The Bank of England will shed more light on its predictions for the economy and the path of interest rates when it publishes the latest Monetary Policy Report alongside the rates decision today.
Meanwhile, the central bank in the US, the Federal Reserve, said on Wednesday it was keeping its key interest rate at the same level and noted a “lack of further progress” towards lowering inflation.
It means rates could stay higher for longer until there is firmer evidence of price rises easing, its chairman Jerome Powell suggested.
04:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist for Oxford Economics, said: “The data published in mid-April for services inflation and private sector regular pay growth has likely extinguished any remaining hopes of a move in May.
“Though both measures have continued to fall, progress has been slightly slower than the MPC anticipated, and they are currently running marginally higher than the forecasts published in February’s Monetary Policy Report.”
He said it is likely to be a “close call” on whether the MPC decides to cut rates in June or August.
02:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
Higher interest rates are used as a tool to control inflation, which has fallen sharply in recent months.
The latest official figures showed that Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 3.2% in March, as it edges closer to the Bank’s 2% target.
But economists think the Bank’s policymakers will want to hold out until they are more convinced that inflationary pressures have eased.
Mapped: Which areas worst hit by mortgage rate hikes as homeowners ‘forced to move’
Thursday 9 May 2024 00:00 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
Homeowners coming off fixed rate mortgages faced huge rises in their monthly payments, latest figures have revealed, with the costs severely biting into household disposable income.
With the Bank of England base rate rising to 5.25 per cent in the summer of last year, families faced soaring mortagage rates with the average two-year fixed rate reaching 6.9 per cent.
The new rates meant many homeowners, especially those with large mortgages still to pay, faced challenging increases in monthly payments.
Mapped: Areas worst hit by mortgage rate hikes as homeowners ‘forced to move’
Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say
Wednesday 8 May 2024 21:57 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
UK borrowers eager for costs to come down may have to wait a little longer before interest rates take a dip.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets the level of UK interest rates, will announce its latest decision on Thursday.
However, economists are widely expecting the committee to keep rates at the current level of 5.25 per cent, which it has been held at since August last year.
Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say
Wednesday 8 May 2024 19:18 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, said: “This broad direction illustrates that collectively the committee is moving gradually towards a rate cut.
“It seems unlikely though to be ready to bite the bullet just yet and the Bank rate looks set to remain on hold at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting.”
He added that it is possible that a second member of the MPC will switch to the “easing camp” and vote for a cut on Thursday.
‘Too early’ for economists to cut rates, economists predict
Wednesday 8 May 2024 17:30 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
Economists think the Bank of England’s policymakers will want to hold out until they are more convinced that inflationary pressures have eased.
Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, said: “It is almost certainly too early for the Bank of England to pull the trigger on a rate cut right now, especially against the backdrop of a more hawkish US central bank.”
The US Federal Reserve said last week it was keeping its key interest rate at the same level and noted a “lack of further progress” towards lowering inflation.
It means rates could stay higher for longer until there is firmer evidence of price rises easing, the Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell suggested.
Mr Khalaf said the Bank is also likely to be influenced by the European Central Bank, which is widely expected to cut rates in early June.
“The other important factor is more inflation readings for April and May, where CPI could get very close to, or possibly even hit, the Bank’s 2% target,” he added.
“The closer the inflation dial gets to 2%, the greater the pressure on the Bank of England to take its foot off the brake and cut rates.
“Markets currently think it’s a coin toss whether we get a UK rate cut in June, but this rises to a three in four chance priced in by August.”
The housing market has turned – so what does that mean for buyers and sellers waiting to make a move?
Wednesday 8 May 2024 16:29 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
House prices are down and mortgage costs are up, writes James Moore. So how long will buyers and sellers need to wait before the market shows signs of life?
Britain’s housing market has turned hostile again, at least for sellers. The latest Nationwide index showed a surprise 0.4 per cent fall in April, the second month-on-month decline in a row.
A rival index produced by Halifax recorded a 1 per cent month-on-month fall in March, with the next update due next week. These indices can be volatile, but another fall would now be the betting favourite.
Read more here:
House prices are falling – but what does it mean for the future market?
Improving the economy may limit a Tory wipeout, but it won’t save Rishi Sunak
Wednesday 8 May 2024 15:47 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
Thanks to the Liz Truss mini-Budget disaster, the Conservatives can no longer claim to be the party of economic competence, writes Andrew Grice. But an election campaign based on the economy is still their best hope of avoiding annihilation:
Improving the economy will not save Rishi Sunak
Pay growth and services sector inflation remain stubborn
Wednesday 8 May 2024 15:45 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
Interest rates are used as a tool to help bring down UK inflation, which has fallen sharply from the highs hit in 2022 when energy costs spiked and the cost-of-living crisis was at its peak.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in March, according to the latest official figures.
But experts suggested that two key economic indicators for the Bank of England – pay growth and services sector inflation – have remained more stubborn.
Average wages continued to increase faster than the rate of inflation last month.
Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say
Wednesday 8 May 2024 15:43 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain
UK borrowers eager for costs to come down may have to wait a little longer before interest rates take a dip.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets the level of UK interest rates, will announce its latest decision on Thursday.
However, economists are widely expecting the committee to keep rates at the current level of 5.25 per cent, which it has been held at since August last year.
This means that there could still be some time before the pressure of the cost of living begins to ease.
Bank of England not yet ready to cut UK interest rates, experts say
The average for a 30-year fixed-mortgage is 7.36% today, up 0.07% compared to one week ago. The average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.76%, which is an increase of 0.06% compared to a week ago. For a look at mortgage rate movement, see the chart below.
Given that inflation data hasn’t been improving, the Federal Reserve has been pushing off rate cuts. Though mortgage rates could still go down later in the year, housing market predictions change regularly in response to economic data, geopolitical events and more.
Today’s average mortgage rates
Today’s average mortgage rates on May. 09, 2024, compared with one week ago. We use rate data collected by Bankrate as reported by lenders across the US.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
How can I choose a mortgage term?
Each mortgage has a loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. With a fixed-rate mortgage, the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, offering stability. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market. Fixed-rate mortgages are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate average is 7.36% today. A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
Today, the average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.76%. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 6.82% today. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
Why are mortgage rates so high right now?
Over the last few years, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed up mortgage rates from their record lows around the pandemic. Since last summer, the Fed has consistently kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Though the central bank doesn’t directly set the rates for mortgages, a high federal funds rate makes borrowing more expensive, including for home loans.
Mortgage rates change daily, but average rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7.5% since late last fall. Today’s homebuyers have less room in their budget to afford the cost of a home due to elevated mortgage rates and steep home prices. Limited housing inventory and low wage growth are also contributing to the affordability crisis and keeping mortgage demand down.
Will mortgage rates fall in 2024?
Most housing market experts predict rates will end the year between 6% and 6.5%. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates. The central bank could start lowering interest rates in the fall, but it will depend on how the economy fares in the coming months.
Mortgage rates fluctuate for many reasons: supply, demand, inflation, monetary policy, jobs data and market expectations. Homebuyers won’t see lower rates overnight, and it’s unlikely there will ever be a return to the 2-3% mortgage rates we saw between 2000 and early 2022.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can influence the direction of mortgage rates, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
Calculate your monthly mortgage payment
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Where can I find the best mortgage rates?
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Save for a bigger down payment: Though a 20% down payment isn’t required, a larger upfront payment means taking out a smaller mortgage, which will help you save in interest.
Boost your credit score: You can qualify for a conventional mortgage with a 620 credit score, but a higher score of at least 740 will get you better rates.
Pay off debt: Experts recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 36% or less to help you qualify for the best rates. Not carrying other debt will put you in a better position to handle your monthly payments.
Research loans and assistance: Government-sponsored loans have more flexible borrowing requirements than conventional loans. Some government-sponsored or private programs can also help with your down payment and closing costs.
Shop around for lenders: Researching and comparing multiple loan offers from different lenders can help you secure the lowest mortgage rate for your situation.
The cost to buy a home has reached historic highs in the U.S. — the median price of a home is $420,800, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — and housing and mortgage costs are increasingly turning into a November election issue.
Home shoppers today need to an annual income of $114,000 in order to comfortably afford a typical home in the U.S., according to Redfin, nearly double what was needed to afford a typical home in 2020. That figure is far above the 2022 median household income of $74,580, according to the Census Bureau.
Higher monthly payments are driven by higher home prices as well as significantly higher interest rates. Mortgage interest rates, which dipped to an historic low of 2.65% on a 30-year fixed mortgage in 2021, have soared beyond 7%, higher than they’ve been since 2001. Interest rates are set by the independent Federal Reserve, and President Joe Biden has insisted on the Fed’s independence. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since 2021 in order to combat stubborn inflation.
smaller, entry-level homes, several experts agree.
Once interest rates are removed from the picture, “then you’re left focusing mainly on the supply shortfall,” said Jim Parrott, fellow at the Urban Institute and former Obama White House economic adviser.
The housing market has seen a severe shortage of smaller starter homes, Parrott said. Builders, he said, are incentivized to build large, often mansion-like homes, which more easily turn a profit.
“The cost of building larger homes tends to be quite high, and it’s easier to recoup those costs if you’re making big, expensive homes,” Parrott said.
The federal government needs to “make the math for building homes at the bottom of the market more favorable” for developers, Parrott suggested. And Congress can do this with the tax code. One approach would be to give a tax cut to any builder who constructs a residence for a first-time home buyer at below the median home price, Parrott said.
“You need to provide some sort of tax benefit for building homes in the parts of the market where we need them the most,” Parrott said.
But getting this divided Congress to work together on something like this would be challenging, Parrott said.
“I’m afraid that the legislative environment right now just isn’t conducive to this sort of big, bipartisan effort,” Parrott said. “Hopefully after the election we’ll see a reboot that provides a more hopeful window.”
Withhold funding from localities that don’t change zoning laws
Most of the control over zoning lies with state and local governments. And states have been working to overhaul zoning to ease restrictions on denser residential construction. But the federal government isn’t entirely powerless on zoning.
Parrott said the federal government has used a carrot approach to encourage localities to rezone in favor of denser housing, but now he thinks maybe it’s time to use a stick. For instance, any federal funding for communities could be conditioned on how zoning decisions are made. Communities receive substantial financial support from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Transportation Department and other agencies for projects, Parrott noted.
“If federal policymakers were to condition even a little bit some of that funding on whether or not local decision-making is supportive of or prohibitive of more density,…then you could begin to change things at the local level in a way that would really matter,” Parrott said.
Such a move would be almost certain to trigger strict opposition from localities and unions. But more states have already been enacting legislation to supersede local zoning rules, said Alex Horowitz, director of housing policy at The Pew Charitable Trusts. Horowitz said nine states have passed laws allowing accessible dwelling units or ADUs — like small, independent, mother-in-law suites — on homeowners’ properties.
Sell federal land to use for housing
“The federal government owns hundreds and hundreds of millions of acres, and we’re not talking about the National Parks here,” said Edward Pinto, co-director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center.
But that’s a proposal that Congress would need to authorize.
It has been tried. Sen. Mike Lee’s HOUSES Act of 2022 would have approved the sale of federal land to states and localities for below-market rates for housing projects. The federal government owns two-thirds of the land in Lee’s home state of Utah, and the gap between median household income and median home cost is largest in the West, according to HUD.
But his bill went nowhere. The Bureau of Land Management, which oversees federal land, said in written Senate testimony that it would be forced to “sell land without sufficient evaluation of the values to the public or to future generations, or sufficient compensation to the American taxpayer.”
The sale of unused land could also attract opposition from environmentalist groups, though sometimes that can be overcome. In March, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee signed a law that will allow that state’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR) to transfer some of its property to localities to build affordable housing.
Washington state GOP Rep. April Connors, who introduced the bill, noted that that the DNR had 7,000 acres of land that was unusable for timber harvesting because it was too close to developed land. Building housing on it could ease the shortage of homes in Washington, Connors noted in a statement, pointing out that the state has the “fewest housing units per household in the nation and nearly half of renters spend a third of their income on rent.”
Improve consumer access to financing for manufactured housing
Manufactured homes are factory-built residences built after 1976 — formerly known as mobile homes — that can be placed on land. The average new manufactured home sold for $126,600 in November 2023, according to the Census Bureau.
But loans are harder for homebuyers to secure for manufactured homes than for traditional ones, Horowitz said. And since manufactured housing usually involves shipping over state lines, the federal government plays a big role. HUD controls access to financing for manufactured homes, and rules are stricter than they are for traditional homes.
Interest rates are typically also higher for manufactured home loans than for traditional home loans, in part because unlike traditional homes, which tend to appreciate in value over time, manufactured homes can depreciate. The structures are also viewed as riskier than conventional homes because they’re usually harder to sell on the market. Horowitz suggests HUD could make it easier for borrowers to access loans.
Eliminate tax breaks for second (and third) homes
Congress could increase the national housing stock over time by eliminating tax breaks for any homes that aren’t a primary residence, said AEI’s Pinto.
Getting rid of the mortgage interest rate deduction for non-primary residences would eventually encourage many homeowners to sell, Pinto said.
“Why should they be subsidized by the tax code,” Pinto asked.
Without that tax break, hundreds of thousands of homes would come back onto the market as primary residences, Pinto said.
“It would cost the federal government basically nothing,” Pinto said. “They’d actually save some money on the tax savings, and it would not increase demand at all.”
This isn’t likely to happen soon though. Such a measure would have to be passed by Congress — and many lawmakers own second and third residences. And a number of their constituents and donors own multiple homes. Realtor interest groups would oppose it, too, Pinto said.
The most Congress has done in recent years to address tax breaks for expensive residences was in 2017, when the GOP-controlled Congress capped the deduction limit for state and local income taxes, which hit coastal, heavily Democratic states like New York and California particularly hard.
Still, eliminating the tax break for secondary homes is “low-hanging fruit,” and would increase supply and reduce demand simultaneously, Pinto said.
Economists mostly doubt that action by the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates would help much.
“If the Fed were to cut rates in a way that allowed mortgage rates to fall to the 4% range, we would see both supply and demand increase in the housing market,” said Chen Zhao, who leads the economics team at Redfin.
And whether home prices rise or fall would depend on what then happens to housing supply and demand.
“If demand increases more, then prices would grow at a faster rate than they are currently,” Zhao said. “However, it’s also possible that supply would increase more because sellers have been so locked in by low existing mortgage rates. If that’s the case, then price growth could fall. I think it’s unlikely in either case that prices would fall outright.”
Would Biden or Trump’s policies help or hurt housing costs?
Former President Donald Trump hasn’t offered policy suggestions to address housing affordability yet, although he criticizes mortgage interest rates and home prices under President Biden.
The president has proposed giving a $10,000 tax credit to first-time middle class homebuyers, and up to $25,000 to first generation home buyers. He’s also introducing a $20 billion fund that in addition to helping build affordable rental units, is meant to peel away local barriers to housing development and spur the construction of starter homes.
Down payment assistance may help home shoppers in the near term, although the tax credit probably falls short of the traditional 20% down payment on most homes. With monthly payments at record highs, this down payment assistance would not lower monthly costs. And down payment assistance could have unintended consequences, Pinto said: “It would increase the price of entry level homes.”
The effect down payment assistance or a buyer tax credit would have on the housing market is complicated in a supply-constrained market, Horowitz said.
While Trump hasn’t made specific proposals on housing, his proposals in other policy areas would likely drive home prices up, Parrott said. Mass deportations of undocumented migrants, for instance, could drive the cost of labor higher, and raising tariffs on China could drive up material costs, Parrott said.
“The things that Trump has said relevant to housing almost all cut the wrong way,” Parrot said.
How home costs could affect the election
The cost of home ownership is a top concern for Democrats and Republicans, city dwellers and rural residents alike, said Parrott. Once an issue has broken through the barriers of red and blue, metro and rural, “then it changes the probability of something happening,” Parrott said.
“Housing has found its way to the grownups table, in effect, for the first time,” Parrott said.
And even though it’s the Fed that controls interest rates, Mr. Biden could be held accountable by voters.
“President Biden’s reelection is closely tied to the cost of homeownership and thus, the fixed mortgage rates,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics predicted. “The fixed rate is currently just over 7%. If it rises above 8% for any length of time, his reelection odds will fade, and if it falls closer to 6% his odds will increase meaningfully, all else equal.”
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Kathryn Watson
Kathryn Watson is a politics reporter for CBS News Digital based in Washington, D.C.
“Housing sentiment increased from November through February, driven largely by consumer belief that mortgage rates would move lower,” he said in the report. “However, recent data showing stickier-than-expected inflation, rising mortgage rates, and continued home price appreciation appear to have given consumers pause regarding the market’s direction.” While 67% of consumers surveyed said they believe … [Read more…]
Americans are in limbo about where the housing market could go next, but they are resolute about the conditions for buying right now.
Nearly 80% of Americans think it’s a bad time to buy a house, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), a survey gauging homebuying and selling confidence. The index stayed flat in April compared to the previous month as consumers adjust to elevated mortgage rates that show little promise of easing. The average rate on a 30-year loan stood at 7.22% last week. Consumer confidence is still up 8% year over year.
In addition, fewer Americans believe mortgage rates will decline over the next 12 months, sidelining buyers awaiting affordability improvement.
“Housing sentiment increased from November through February, driven largely by consumer belief that mortgage rates would move lower,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “However, recent data showing stickier-than-expected inflation, rising mortgage rates, and continued home price appreciation appear to have given consumers pause regarding the market’s direction.”
A closer look at mortgage rates
Waning expectations of a rate drop are becoming a common trend.
In the latest survey, only about 1 in 4 Americans believed rates would drop over the next 12 months, a decline from nearly 1 in 3 a month prior. In comparison, at the beginning of the year, almost 40% of survey respondents said they expected rates to fall.
“[Strong economic and job market data] will keep mortgage rates at elevated levels for the near future, sidelining some prospective buyers from entering the housing market,” said Edward Seiler, Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) associate vice president.
With rates hovering around 7% for a 30-year loan over the last few months, monthly mortgage costs have risen. The national median payment rose past $2,200 in March from $2,184 in February, according to the MBA. Payments could become even more expensive going forward as average 30-year loan rates surpassed 7% over the last three weeks, with no signs of falling.
Read more: Mortgage rates top 7% — is this a good time to buy a house?
Home sellers remain optimistic
Contrasting homebuyers’ woes, an increasing number of Americans think now is a good time to sell. The share of survey respondents confident in selling reached nearly 70% in April, up from 60% at the beginning of the year and 62% in the same month last year.
Home sellers’ growing optimism could be attributed to the continual growth in home prices nationwide. The latest national housing price index gained 6.4% in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price.
“As interest rates go up, people’s purchasing power goes down, and thus, so should home prices. But that hasn’t happened in this latest correction cycle,” Jon Grauman, founder of Grauman Rosenfeld, a real estate firm in Los Angeles, told Yahoo Finance.
Consumers are braced for high prices — more than 40% of Fannie Mae’s survey participants expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, compared to 37% earlier this year.
“We think consumers’ generally improved sense of home-selling conditions bodes well for listings and housing activity, particularly for the segment of the population who may need to move for lifestyle reasons and have already begun adjusting their financial expectations to the current mortgage rate and price environment,” Duncan said.
Correction: A previous version of this article listed the incorrect firm name for Grauman Rosenfeld. We regret the error.
Rebecca Chen is a reporter for Yahoo Finance and previously worked as an investment tax certified public accountant (CPA).
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“I would say that anything is theoretically possible. We learned that lesson when the pandemic started, but I’d say this is an election year and the odds of the Fed actually hiking rates at this point, and this year, are probably highly unlikely,” she said. Expectations of a summer rate cut rapidly faded amid a … [Read more…]