To paraphrase Mark Twain, history may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. The U.S. mortgage industry recently had to remind itself of this fact when a CNN analysis found that the nation’s largest credit union, Navy Federal, has the widest disparity in mortgage approval rates between white and black borrowers of any major lender. The report, released back in December, noted that Navy Federal Credit Union approved more than 75% of white borrowers who applied for a new conventional home purchase mortgage in 2022 vs. less than 50% of black borrowers.
As ever, redlining — the intentional, systematic effort by American banks and government to refuse mortgages to African Americans and segregate U.S. cities — looms in the background. The practice wasn’t outlawed until 1968, and ongoing research at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health finds that redlining affects non-white communities to this day in the form of air pollution, reproductive health disorders, and fewer urban amenities.
Is the mortgage industry offering fair access to loans?
The report suggests that the mortgage industry may be neglecting its duty to offer all applicants fair access to loans. With civil rights bills like the Fair Housing Act (FHAct) and Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) now the law of the land, most lenders will note that they rely on supposedly objective borrower screening algorithms to make lending decisions. But the results tell a different story.
The Federal Reserve’s Consumer Compliance Handbook observes that “evidence of discriminatory intent is not necessary to establish that a lender’s adoption or implementation of a policy or practice is in violation of the FHAct or ECOA.” If a lender has a supposedly neutral policy that results in them denying loans to people of a protected class (i.e., racial, religious, or gender minority) at a greater rate, that policy may constitute lending discrimination. To prove the policy is not discriminatory, the lender must show that the policy is justified by “business necessity.”
Meanwhile, repeated, heavily publicized evidence has dispelled the myth that algorithms are inherently neutral actors. Those in the data analytics field have long been aware that algorithms can not only encode but amplify bias. For example, Amazon had to stop testing an automated hiring algorithm in 2015 when it became obvious that the algorithm was systematically discriminating against women for technical jobs. Trained on the resumes of existing employees, most of whom were male, the algorithm reproduced that same bias when evaluating candidates.
Algorithmic bias in mortgage lending is just another example of the phenomenon that data analysts call “garbage in, garbage out.” Institutions that feed their lending algorithm data that encodes structural racism should not be surprised when the ending algorithm results in a disparate impact.
One of the biggest offenders in algorithmic bias is the almighty credit score.
Lenders rapidly expanded their use of computerized credit scores in the 1970s and 80s, ironically, to protect themselves against discrimination lawsuits. Experts point out that the supposedly objective credit scoring system still bakes in intentional discrimination from decades ago. Leaning too heavily on credit scores actually biases lenders against a large swath of potential homebuyers, including foreign buyers, younger buyers, and buyers from families with low financial literacy, who often lack robust U.S. credit histories.
To avoid discriminating against these groups, lenders need to scrap the credit score and start looking at cashflow. Cashflow underwriting is a transparent, data-driven approach that looks at an individual’s core financial behavior metrics. The main factors that cashflow underwriting looks at are the applicant’s balances, cashflow trends, and their ratio of discretionary-to-core spending. Cashflow underwriting puts income verification where it belongs: at the front of the process. By looking at an applicant’s behavioral metrics based on real-time financials from their bank data, cashflow underwriting is blind to racial and age discrimination. People qualify based on their ability to pay, not their placement in some opaque scoring system.
Cashflow underwriting also addresses another problem with traditional screening approaches, which is the overreliance on paystubs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 10% of Americans are self-employed. With the growth of the gig and sharing economies, as well as the rise of social media influencers, an increasing number of Americans are getting their income from nontraditional sources. A cashflow-first approach acknowledges applicant income from all sources, based on their bank deposit history, rather than just payroll alone, making it easier for applicants to demonstrate their ability to pay.
With today’s artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning technologies, lenders can make the switch to cashflow underwriting a lot more easily than they think. Innovative, AI-powered verification algorithms on the market right now can evaluate an applicant’s income, assets, employment history, and cashflow without invading anyone’s privacy. The applicant’s race, creed, sexual or gender orientation, current neighborhood, or place of origin never enters the picture.
Navy Federal may have received the bulk of the bad press this time around, but these problems — overreliance on credit scores, outdated expectations about employment — are industry wide. To avoid becoming the next Navy Federal, lenders must evaluate the whole picture. Following a cashflow underwriting approach and backed by AI, lenders can make safe bets, free from prejudice or the appearance of bias, to help people attain home ownership.
Tim Ray is co-founder and CEO of VeriFast, an identity and financial verification platform that reduces underwriting and costs while eliminating fraud. A serial entrepreneur and angel investor, Tim is an influential voice in the real estate and property management sectors.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
To contact the authors of this story: Tim Ray at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tracey Velt at [email protected]
Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. This week, inventory fell week to week, but that’s the Easter bunny’s fault.
The same week last year (March 30-April 7): Inventory rose from 410,734 to 411,577
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,021,567
New listings data
While the number of new listings isn’t growing as fast as I thought it would this year, it’s still growing, which means we have more sellers looking to buy a home once they sell. This variable can change when we experience a recession or job loss. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S. housing market, and we should ignore the decline last week.
Number of new listings last week, by year:
2024: 54,769
2023: 55,008
2022: 63,374
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut; this is standard housing activity. When mortgage rates go higher and demand falls, the price-cut percentage grows; when rates drop, and demand gets better, the percentage falls.
It’s also critical to consider the year-over-year data with this line. Last year, when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, the year-over-year price-cut percentage was continuously declining, which makes sense when you consider 2022 was a very abnormal year with the most significant home sales crash ever. As inventory is growing and demand isn’t booming on the mortgage side of things, the price-cut percentage is increasing year over year.
It’s critical to keep track of this data line as it shows price growth cooling down. That’s always what the doctor ordered because we have had massive housing inflation post-COVID-19. Having accurate weekly data gives us a big advantage to see what’s coming next.
Here’s the price-cut percentage for last week over the last several years:
2024: 32%
2023: 29.9%
2022: 17.6%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
We had some good and bad news last week with mortgage rates.
First, the bad news” The 10-year yield broke a critical support level on Friday, and if we get more bond market selling, that will pressure mortgage rates higher.
But the good news is that the spread between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates is getting much better, sooner than I thought it would this year. We didn’t see much reaction on Friday with mortgage rates because the spreads were good. This is a huge plus because if and when the 10-year yield falls and if the spreads get even better, this means we could quickly get sub-6% mortgage rates with the 10-year yield at 3.37% — without it even breaking my “Gandalf line in the sand.”
I wrote a detailed article on Friday analyzing the jobs report, and showing how the latest labor data gives the Federal Reserve a pathway to land the plane if they want. See here for more details and charts.
As you can see below, even though the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, CPI inflation has gone from over 9% year over year to 3.2%; the 10-year yield is still elevated. As always, the labor data is more important than inflation data for now.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week, making it back-to-back weeks with flat weekly data. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 13% year over year. Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and two flat prints. Year to date, we have had four positive prints, six negative prints and two flat prints.
The data tells me that since late 2022, many people have been waiting for lower mortgage rates, and even though rates are elevated compared to the last decard, people still jumped back into the market. Imagine if mortgage rates stayed near 6% for a year — mortgage demand would grow and we wouldn’t need tax credits to boost demand for existing homes.
Week ahead: Inflation week!
We are jumping right from jobs week into inflation week with the upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data. These will be important reports as many market players have used the seasonal base pricing variable as a reason why the last two months’ inflation data was a bit hotter than usual. This week will be critical to watch because if the inflation data comes in cooler than anticipated, the 10-year yield should fall, and with spreads getting better, that will be a plus for mortgage rates.
100k salary is when you feel like you have arrived in your career. You know living on this amount of income would be simple. But, is making $100000 doable in today’s high inflation world?
When you get a job and you are making about $28 an hour, making over $100,000 a year seems like it would provide amazing opportunities for you. Right?
The median household income is $68,703 in 2019 and increased by 6.8% from the previous year (source). Think of it as a bell curve with $68K at the top; median means half of the population makes less than that and half makes more money.
The average income in the U.S. is $48,672 for a 40-hour workweek; that is an increase of 4% from the previous year (source). That means if you take everyone’s income and divide the money out evenly between all of the people.
Obviously, $100k is well above the average and median incomes; yet, most people feel like they can barely make ends meet with this much higher than average salary.
But, the question remains can you truly live off 100,000 per year in today’s society. The question you want to ask all of your friends is $100000 per year a good salary.
In this post, we are going to dive into everything that you need to know about a $100000 salary including hourly pay and a sample budget on how to spend and save your money.
These key facts will help you with money management and learn how much per hour $100k is as well as what you make per month, weekly, and biweekly.
Just like with any paycheck, it seems like money quickly goes out of your account to cover all of your bills and expenses, and you are left with a very small amount remaining. You may be disappointed that you were not able to reach your financial goals and you are left wondering…
Can I make a living on this salary?
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$100000 a year is How Much an Hour?
When jumping from an hourly job to a salary for the first time, it is helpful to know how much is 100k a year hourly. That way you can decide whether or not the job is worthwhile for you.
For our calculations to figure out how much is 100K salary hourly, we used the average five working days of 40 hours a week.
Let’s breakdown how that 100000 salary to hourly number is calculated.
Typically, the average work week is 40 hours and you can work 52 weeks a year. Take 40 hours times 52 weeks and that equals 2,080 working hours. Then, divide the yearly salary of $100000 by 2,080 working hours and the result is $48.08 per hour.
100000 salary / 2080 hours = $48.08 per hour
$100000 a year is $48.08 per hour
This is just above $45 an hour.
That number is the gross hourly income before taxes, insurance, 401K or anything else is taken out. Net income is how much you deposit into your bank account.
You must check with your employer on how they plan to pay you. For those on salary, typically companies pay on a monthly, semi-monthly, biweekly, or weekly basis.
Just an interesting note… if you were to increase your annual salary by $5K or start a side hustle making $5k a year, it would increase your hourly wage by $2.40 per hour.
To break it down – 105k a year is how much an hour = $50.48
That isn’t a huge amount of money, but every dollar adds up to over $50 an hour.
How Much is $100K salary Per Month?
On average, the monthly amount would be $8,333.
Annual Salary of $100,000 ÷ 12 months = $8,333 per month
This is how much you make a month if you get paid 100000 a year.
$100k a year is how much a week?
This is a great number to know! How much do I make each week? When I roll out of bed and do my job of a $100k salary a year, how much can I expect to make at the end of the week for my effort?
Once again, the assumption is 40 hours worked.
Annual Salary of$100000/52 weeks = $1,923 per week.
$100000 a year is how much biweekly?
For this calculation, take the average weekly pay of $1,923 and double it.
This depends on how many hours you work in a day. For this example, we are going to use an eight hour work day.
8 hours x 52 weeks = 260 working days
Annual Salary of$100000 / 260 working days = $384 per day
If you work a 10 hour day on 208 days throughout the year, you make $480 per day.
$100000 Salary is…
$100000 – Full Time
Total Income
Yearly (52 weeks)
$100,000
Monthly
$8,333
Weekly (40 Hours)
$1,923
Bi-Weekly (80 Hours)
$3,846
Daily Wage (8 Hours)
$384
Daily Wage (10 Hours)
$480
Hourly Wage
$48.08
Net Estimated Monthly Income
$6,362
Net Estimated Hourly Income
$36.71
**These are assumptions based on simple scenarios.
Learn how much house can I afford with 100k salary.
100k A Year Is How Much An Hour After Taxes
Income taxes is one of the biggest culprits of reducing your take-home pay as well as FICA and Social Security. This is a true fact across the board with an all salary range up to $142,800.
When you start getting into a higher salary range, the more you make, the more money that you have to pay in taxes.
Every single tax situation is different.
On the basic level, let’s assume a 12% federal tax rate and 4% state rate. Plus a percentage is taken out for Social Security and Medicare (FICA) of 7.65%.
So, how much an hour is 100000 a year after taxes?
Gross Annual Salary: $100,000
Federal Taxes of 12%: $12,000
State Taxes of 4%: $4,000
Social Security and Medicare of 7.65%: $6,382
$100k Per Year After Taxes is $76,350.
This would be your net annual salary after taxes.
To turn that back into an hourly wage, the assumption is working 2,080 hours.
$76,350 ÷ 2,080 hours = $36.71 per hour
After estimated taxes and FICA, you are netting $76350 per year, which is a whopping $23,650 per year less than what you expect.
***This is a very high-level example and can vary greatly depending on your personal situation and potential deductions. Therefore, here is a great tool to help you figure out how much your net paycheck would be.***
In addition, if you live in a heavily taxed state like California or New York, then you have to pay way more money than somebody that lives in a no tax state like Texas or Florida. This is the debate of HCOL vs LCOL.
Thus, your yearly gross $100000 income can range from $68,350 to $80,350 depending on your state income taxes.
That is why it is important to realize the impact income taxes can have on your take home pay. It is one of those things that you should acknowledge and obviously you need to pay taxes. But, it can also put a huge dent in your ability to live the lifestyle you want on a $100,000 income.
100k salary lifestyle
Every person reading this post has a different upbringing and a different belief system about money. Therefore, what would be a lavish lifestyle to one person, maybe a frugal lifestyle to another person. And there’s no wrong or right, it is what works best for you.
One of the biggest factors to consider is your cost of living.
In another post, we detailed the differences of living in an HCOL vs LCOL vs MCOL area. When you live in big cities, trying to maintain your lifestyle of $100,000 a year is going to be much more difficult because your basic expenses, housing, transportation, food, and clothing are going to be much more expensive than you would find in a lower cost area.
To stretch your dollar further in the high cost of living area, you would have to probably live a very frugal lifestyle and prioritize where you want to spend money and where you do not. Whereas, if you live in a low cost of living area, you can live a much more lavish lifestyle because the cost of living is less. Thus, you have more fun spending left in your account each month.
As we noted earlier in the post, $100,000 a year is well above the median income of $40000 that you would find in the United States. Thus, you are able to live an upper-class lifestyle here in America.
What a $100,000 lifestyle will buy you:
If you are debt free and utilize smart money management skills, then you are able to enjoy the lifestyle you want.
Saving at least $10000 in a year.
You are able to afford a home in a great neighborhood in MCOL city and probably HCOL area.
You should be able easily meeting your expenses each and every month.
Saving at least 20% of your income each month.
Working to increase your savings percentage every year.
Able to afford vacations on a fairly regular basis; of course by using your vacation fund.
When A $100,000 Salary Will Hold you Back:
However, if you are riddled with debt or unable to break the paycheck to paycheck cycle, then living off of 100k a year is going to be pretty darn difficult.
Two factors will keep holding you back:
You must pay off debt and cut all fun spending until that happens.
Break the paycheck to paycheck cycle.
Live a lifestyle that you can afford.
It is possible to get ahead with money!
It just comes with proper money management skills and a desire to have less stress around money. That is a winning combination regardless of your income level.
$100K a year Budget – Example
As always, here at Money Bliss, we focus on covering our basic expenses plus saving and giving first, and then our goal is to eliminate debt. The rest of the money is left for fun spending.
If you want to know how to manage a 100k salary the best, then this is a prime example for you to compare your spending.
You can compare your budget to the ideal household budget percentages.
recommended budget percentages based on $100000 a year salary:
Category
Ideal Percentages
Sample Monthly Budget
Giving
10%
$833
Savings
15-25%
$1683
Housing
20-30%
$2000
Utilities
4-7%
$229
Groceries
5-12%
$667
Clothing
1-4%
$33
Transportation
4-10%
$225
Medical
5-12%
$375
Life Insurance
1%
$21
Education
1-4%
$25
Personal
2-7%
$83
Recreation / Entertainment
3-8%
$188
Debts
0% – Goal
$0
Government Tax (including Income Taxes, Social Security & Medicare)
15-25%
$1971
Total Gross Income
$8,333
**In this budget, prioritization was given to savings, basic expenses, and no debt.
Is $100,000 a year a Good Salary?
As we stated earlier if you are able to make $100,000 a year, that is a good salary. You are making more money than the average American and slightly less on the bell curve on the median income.
You shouldn’t be questioning yourself if 100000 is a good salary.
However, too many times people get stuck in the lifestyle trap of trying to keep up with the Joneses, and their lifestyle desires get out of hand compared to their salary. And what they thought used to be a great salary actually is not making ends meet at this time.
The good news is you are in the six figures club!
This $100k salary would be considered a upper-middle class salary. This salary is something that you can live on very comfortably.
Check: Are you in the middle class?
In fact, this income level in the United States has enough buying power to put you in the top 91 percentile globally for per person income (source).
The question you need to ask yourself with your 100k salary is:
Am I maxed at the top of my career?
Is there more income potential?
What obstacles do I face if I want to try to increase my income?
In the future years and with possible inflation, some expensive cities 100,000 a year is not a good salary because the cost of living is so high, whereas these are some of the cities that you can make a comfortable living at 100,000 per year. You probably need to make $200k a year.
If you are looking for a career change, you may want to look at is being your boss or starting a side business. Then, you can move towards seven figures.
Is 100k a good salary for a Single Person?
Simply put, yes.
You can stretch your salary much further because you are only worried about your own expenses. A single person will spend much less than if you need to provide for someone else.
Your living expenses and ideal budget are much less. Thus, you can live extremely comfortably on $100000 per year.
And… most of us probably regret how much money wasted when we were single. Oh well, lesson learned.
Is 100k a good salary for a family?
Many of the same principles apply above on whether $100000 is a good salary. The main difference with a family, you have more people to provide for than when you are single or have just one other person in your household.
The cost of raising a child born in 2015 is $233,610 (source). That is from birth to the age of 17 and this does not include college.
As you can tell this is a huge dent in your income, specifically $12,980 annually per child. If you make the decision to have children, then you need to be financially prepared for the impact on your finances.
That means that amount of money is coming out of the income that you earned.
So, the question really remains is can you provide a good life for your family making $100,000 a year? This is the hardest part because each family has different choices, priorities, and values.
More or less, it comes down to two things:
The location where you live in.
Your lifestyle choices.
You can live comfortably as a family on this salary, but you will not be able to afford everything you want.
Many times when raising a family, it is helpful to have a dual-income household. That way you are able to provide the necessary expenses if one party was making 100,000 per year and the other 55000 per year, then the combined income for the household would be $155,000. Thus making your combined salary an upper class income.
Learn how much money a family of 4 needs in each state.
Can you Live on $100000 Per Year?
As we outlined earlier in the post, $100,000 a year:
$48.08 Per Hour
$384-480 Per Day (depending on length of day worked)
$1923 Per Week
$3846 Per Biweekly
$8333 Per Month
You should be very grateful you are not living on $30000 a year anymore.
Like anything else in life, you get to decide how to spend, save and give your money.
That is the difference for each person on whether or not you can live a middle-class lifestyle depends on many potential factors. If you live in California or New Jersey you are gonna have a tougher time than Oklahoma or even Texas.
In addition, if you are early in your career, starting out around 65,000 a year, that is a great place to be getting your career. However, if you have been in your career for over 20 years and making $100K, then you probably need to look at asking for pay increases, pick up a second job, or find a different career path.
Regardless of the wage that you make, if you are not able to live the lifestyle that you want, then you have to find ways to make it work for you. Everybody has choices to make.
But one of the things that can help you the most is to stick to our ideal household budget percentages to make sure you stay on track.
Learn exactly how much do I make per year…
Know someone else that needs this, too? Then, please share!!
Did the post resonate with you?
More importantly, did I answer the questions you have about this topic? Let me know in the comments if I can help in some other way!
Your comments are not just welcomed; they’re an integral part of our community. Let’s continue the conversation and explore how these ideas align with your journey towards Money Bliss.
Now that we are right in the middle of the spring buying season, my inventory model is simple: with higher mortgage rates, just like last year, we should be able to grow weekly active inventory between 11,000 – 17,000 on some weeks. Unfortunately, I batted a whopping zero last year since inventory growth never hit that level for even one week — even when mortgage rates hit 8%. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, which is my peak rate forecast.
Weekly inventory change (March 22-29): Inventory rose from 512,759 to 517,355
The same week last year (March 23-30): Inventory fell from 413,883 to 410,734
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,012,704
New listings data
While I am thrilled that new listings data is growing year over year, something I have been anticipating for some time, the growth in 2024 has been disappointing because I had expected a bit more by now. This was my big talking point on CNBC earlier in the year. Still, new listing data is a positive story. Here are the number of new listings for last week over the last several years:
2024: 59,854
2023: 48,442
2022: 56,258
For context, new listings data at this time in 2010 ran at 326,266.
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates increase and demand gets hit.
As inventory and demand grow year over year, the price-cut percentage data increases year over year. So, we will keep tracking this data line to see how high it goes this year. We keep it simple: higher inventory softness in demand means price growth is weakening. As we can see below, the year-over-year data is showing a higher percentage of price cuts.
2024: 31.9%
2023: 30.5%
2022: 17.2%
10-year yield and mortgage rates
For those of you who have followed me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work and therefore for the mortgage rate discussion. A break above this level would send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8%. So far, so good here.
We had the PCE inflation report come out Friday and because some people were expecting a hotter number than estimates, it was perceived to be bullish for rate cuts. However, the markets were closed Friday, so we have to wait and see how trading goes on Monday. The 10-year yield channel is between 4.25%-3.80%, which looks correct as long as the economic data stays firm and jobless claims don’t break higher. This means mortgage rates will likely remain in the upper range of my 2024 forecast of 6.75%-7.25%.
There was not too much action in mortgage rates last week, but with jobs week coming up, we could see some movement. As you can see below, the 10-year yield has made a massive move from 2022 and has stayed above 4%, even with the progress we have made with inflation. Always remember, when it comes to discussions about rates and the Fed pivoting, it’s always labor over inflation data.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data didn’t move much last week. It was flat on a week-to-week basis and down 15% year over year.
Since November 2023, after making holiday adjustments, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints and one flat print. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints and one flat print.
What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? Purchase apps made a solid positive run up until mortgage rates started to get back over 7%. This was similar to 2023 data, when purchase apps had 12 weeks of a positive run-up until rates moved toward 7% and then 8%.
Week ahead: We’ll see trading off the inflation report and it’s jobs week
First, the trading on Monday will be exciting because of the PCE inflation report; some argue it was hot and some say it wasn’t. The market decides this, and bond trading will judge it on Monday morning.
Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell talked on Friday. I believe Powell’s crucial comment was that the Fed won’t overreact to significant disinflation or heated inflation reports. I think some people missed this. If you want to understand why the markets still have three rate cuts priced in, it’s this mindset.
Then it’s jobs week, with four labor reports, and, of course, for me, it’s labor over inflation data, so buckle up!
Want more context? On the PowerHouse podcast with HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins, I discussed why the data lines we look at in the Housing Market Tracker are so critical for those in the housing industry.
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.
As rates were hitting year-to-date highs, the fear was that the Fed would go hawkish in their March meeting, which could push mortgage rates toward 8% and tank 2024 demand. Thankfully, that didn’t happen, and — as I said on the HousingWire Daily podcast last week —we dodged a bullet.
Let’s look at the tracker data to see how mortgage rates are impacting the housing data as we settle into spring.
10-year yield and mortgage rate talk
For those of you who have me for the last 12 months, you know how important the 4.34% level on the 10-year yield is for my economic work. A break of this level could send mortgage rates toward 7.5%-8% for spring 2024. Not only did this not happen last week, but bond yields fell during the week. As we can see below, we have held the line once again, but we aren’t out of the dark forest yet.
As we can see in the chart below, the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have made a massive move higher since 2022. However, whenever the 10-year yield falls with duration, as we saw toward the end of 2022 and into 2023, it sends mortgage rates lower, and we can grow sales from these record-low levels.
Purchase application data
Purchase application data really moves on mortgage rates — something we saw in late 2022 and into 2023. As rates ticked up recently, purchase apps were down 1% week to week and down 14% year over year.
Since November 2023, we have had 10 positive and six negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus six negative prints. What have 2022, 2023, and 2024 shown us? When mortgage rates fall, demand picks up. Imagine a housing market with just 6% mortgage rates or lower — it would be growing like what we see in the new home sales market.
Weekly housing inventory data
The best housing story for 2024 so far is that inventory is growing yearly. The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also new listings. We’re not seeing seller stress in the inventory data but just a typical increase in inventory when rates are higher, which looks perfectly normal.
Here is a look at the inventory last week:
Weekly inventory change (March 15-22): Inventory rose from 507,160 to 512,759
The same week last year (March 16-23): Inventory fell from 414,967 to 413,883
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 985,141
New listings data
New listing data is growing! This data line is slightly lower than I hoped for for 2024, but we are still growing. Right now we are a tad below the levels we saw in 2022 before mortgage rates spiked over 6%. Here’s the weekly new listing data for last week over several previous years:
2024: 60,328
2023: 49,933
2022: 61,862
For some historical context, in 2011, new listings this week were at 362,339 .
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Keep it simple here, folks: inventory is growing year over year; if demand stays weaker with higher rates, the price-cut percentage data should increase faster, and if demand picks up with lower rates, it shouldn’t. As we can see below, the data line is very seasonal, like most housing data.
2024: 31.4%
2023: 30.4%
2022: 17%
The week ahead: Housing and inflation data
Next week, we have new home sales, pending home sales and the national home price index data. I will be on CNBC Monday morning to discuss the new home sales report. Of course, the Fed’s main inflation indicator, the PCE, will come out on Friday, which is a trading holiday, which will be key for rates short-term until we have the next Fed meeting. So, we have a lot of data to work with this week.
The economic landscape of the United States is experiencing a significant shift, marked by a new event: the average FICO credit score has dropped for the first time in a decade.
In a recently released report on credit score data from October 2023, major credit reporting company, FICO, says that the national average credit score has decreased for the first time in a decade from 718 to 717.
Why did credit scores drop?
The decrease in average credit scores may be attributed to several key factors:
Increased Missed Payments: There has been an increase in missed borrower payments, showing serious financial strain among consumers. The FICO report shows that, as of October 2023, more than 18% of the population was late on payments.
Rising Consumer Debt Levels: Consumer debt, particularly credit card debt, has risen to over 1 trillion. This indicates that more consumers may be leaning on credit cards to cover everyday expenses.
Slowing New Credit Activity: New credit activity – consumers applying for new lines of credit – has slowed down.
What this means for you
It’s hard to say what this will mean moving forward, but at this moment it’s too soon to say – or worry too much. In a statement given to Bloomberg, Ethan Dornhelm, VP at FICO, said that “This isn’t a blinking red light, but it certainly is a yellow light.”
Whatever happens in the future, it’s important to take steps to try to protect your credit. Here are some strategies:
Reduce Credit Utilization Rates: Your credit utilization ratio is the amount of available credit you have compared to the amount of credit you’ve used. Generally, the best practice is to keep your credit utilization ratio below 30%, if you can.
Consolidate Debt: If you’re worried about tracking different payments, consider consolidating your debt into one payment to avoid the risk of missing a payment. A missed payment is a negative mark on your credit, and can stay on your credit reports for 7 years.
Protect Your Credit History: Length of credit history is a significant factor in how your credit score is calculated. Closing a credit card that you’ve had for a long time, for example, might actually hurt your credit score. If you can, try to keep lines of credit – especially revolving credit accounts, like credit cards – open.
If You’re Rejected, Pause Before Applying Again: If you’ve been rejected for a line of credit in the past, like an auto loan or a credit card, pause before immediately applying again. Multiple “hard inquiries” – when a lender pulls your credit to evaluate your creditworthiness – in too short a time could potentially harm your credit.
Good credit is always important
If you’re worried about your credit, the best thing you can do is consistently check and monitor your credit – not just your score. Be on the look out for any changes to your credit reports and score, whether expected or unexpected, and make sure that everything in your credit profile is accurate. You can get started with a free credit assessment at Lexington Law for a snapshot of what’s in your credit profile.
Reviewed By
Nature Lewis
Associate Attorney
Before joining Lexington Law as an Associate Attorney, Nature Lewis managed a successful practice representing tenants in Maricopa County.
Through her representation of tenants, Nature gained experience in Federal law, Family law, Probate, Consumer protection and Civil law. She received numerous accolades for her dedication to Tenant Protection in Arizona, including, John P. Frank Advocate for Justice Award in 2016, Top 50 Pro Bono Attorney of 2015, New Tenant Attorney of the Year in 2015 and Maricopa County Attorney of the Month in March 2015. Nature continued her dedication to pro bono work while volunteering at Community Legal Services’ Volunteer Lawyer’s Program and assisting victims of Domestic Violence at the local shelter. Nature is passionate about providing free knowledge to the underserved community and continues to hold free seminars about tenant rights and plans to incorporate consumer rights in her free seminars. Nature is a wife and mother of 5 children. She and her husband have been married for 24 years and enjoy traveling internationally, watching movies and promoting their indie published comic books!
My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. The growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot on the year-over-year data, but mortgage rates haven’t gone down, which isn’t surprising to me as my mantra has been:“Labor over Inflation.”
For 2024, the 10-year yield running between 3.80%-4.25% looks perfectly normal to me as long as the economic data is firm and the Fed hasn’t pivoted. I can’t see the 10-year yield below 3.37% unless the labor market breaks — meaning jobless claims over 323,000 on the four-week moving average. That means I can’t see mortgage rates going below 6%, especially with the spreads being bad, until the labor market or the economy gets weaker.
However, now we are at the same spot as last year, near the critical 4.34% level and we have the Federal Reserve meeting coming up. This is a big week, as you can see in the chart below.
With mortgage rates above 7% again, we will have to see what the Fed says at this meeting because, in the past few meetings, they have made it clear that policy is restrained and that they don’t want it to get too restrictive. This is what happened last year when the 10-year yield headed to 5% and we had 8% mortgage rates. However, there is a risk of the Fed sounding too hawkish again which would send the 10-year yield higher.
Purchase application data
As mortgage rates have been falling recently, we saw back-to-back weeks of growth in the purchase application data, which aligns with what we saw last year. Remember, we are working from extremely depressed levels in this data line, so the bar is so low that it doesn’t take much to move the needle.
Since November 2023, we have had 10 positive and five negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had four positive prints versus five negative prints. Clearly, if mortgage rates can head toward 6% and hold we will get rising demand, but I believe the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be able to sleep at night if more people were buying homes.
Weekly housing inventory data
The one positive story for me in housing this year is that inventory is growing year over year for both active inventory and new listing data. I know it’s not a lot, but growth is growth. The one benefit of higher rates is that inventory can grow in the post-2010 qualified mortgage world as long as higher rates create softness in demand. It hasn’t been a lot of growth historically, but growth is growth.
Last year, the seasonal inventory bottom happened on April 14, which was the the longest time to find a seasonal bottom ever. This means we will show more than normal inventory growth until we get past tax day 2024.
Here is a look at the inventory last week:
Weekly inventory change (March 8-15 ): Inventory rose from 500,579 to 507,160
The same week last year (March 9-16): Inventory rose from 413,199 to 414,967
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 982,639
New listings data
New listings are growing yearly, which is another plus for housing. Last year, II picked up on the trend that new listing data was creating a historical bottom as the data line wasn’t heading lower with higher rates. The growth is a tad lighter than what I was hoping for. But as someone who didn’t buy the mortgage rate lockdown premise that inventory can’t grow with higher rates, this year is a good test case.
Here’s the weekly new listing data for last week over several previous years:
2024: 59,542
2023: 41,415
2022: 54,542
For some historical context, new listing data this week in 2010 was 306,020.
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Inventory is higher than last year, and we might have found the bottom already, so as the year progresses, the number of homes taking a price cut should increase. The goal is to see how the mortgage rate variable plays into this data line. This is why this week’s Fed meeting is key, to see if the 10-year yield can break higher, which should increase the price-cut data.
Here’s the percentage of homes that took a price cut before selling last week and how that compares to the same week in previous years:
2024: 31%
2023: 30%
2022: 17%
Week ahead: The Fed and housing data
The Federal Reserve’s language and the dot plot are the two things to watch this week. The dot plot should still show many Fed members having two to three rate cuts in play for 2024, with some going the opposite way from that group. We also will have tons of housing data coming out this week, including the builders’ confidence, housing starts, existing home sales, and Zillow home price data. However, the key is the Fed, Fed and the Fed!
What began as a small side hustle has evolved into one of the more popular online Etsy shops.
Noblesville couple Amie and Chris Knuckles created their online wood wall art and home décor business, Vintage Adventures, in 2015. In 2020, the business became a full-time venture when they launched the shop on Etsy, which – according to the Etsy analytics tool Erank – is in the top 2 percent of the platform’s sellers.
The couple, who have worked out of a garage at 936 Maple Ave. since 2021, created a key to the city for the late pop artist Jimmy Buffett in 2020, and one of their art pieces appeared in the 2022 movie “The Requin.”
“(When we started out) we both had really stressful (full-time) jobs, and going around to auctions and making things, it was fun, so it was like a hobby to start with,” Amie said. “We just enjoyed creating things. I never in a million years would have thought that this is what I would be doing. I was a director of nursing when this started. I never thought I would ever in a million years (run an art business).”
Initially, the Knuckles sold vintage furniture in a booth at the antique mall and eventually the Logan Village Mall. They started making and selling wall art after they decided to make art for their own walls in their booth space, which they thought were too bare. They started selling on Etsy after Chris lost his full-time IT job as a project manager during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“(Amie) came in the room, she’s like, ‘Let’s start an Etsy shop, it’ll be fun,’” Chris said. “And I always say that because every time we’re in here and we’re sweaty and we’re tired and exhausted, I’m like, ‘Let’s start an Etsy shop, it’ll be fun.’”
Although Amie devotes most of her time to the art business, she still works part time in a hospital.
Besides their Etsy shop, the Knuckles also have a website where they sell their art.
The Knuckles said their favorite part of their business is traveling, attending festivals, meeting people and the adventure of it all. They were invited to be a part of the Orange Beach Festival of Art in Orange Beach, Ala., March 9-10 and plan to attend more festivals this year.
“We’ve had a lot of great things happen to us over time,” Amie said. “When we get to the point where we start to doubt it, something really cool will happen that gets us to that next step and then we’re like, ‘Yeah, yeah, maybe this is what we’re supposed to do.’”
Amie and Chris said owning and operating Vintage Adventures is the highlight of their lives. They both take pride in their work.
“I look back on my (old full-time) career and think, ‘I did all that stuff but I didn’t do (anything). All I did was make some corporation more money or whatever, right?’” Chris said. “So, now, when I look at the stuff that we do (with our art business), it’s going to sound cheesy, but I feel like I’m leaving some sort of legacy, some part of me is still going to be around.”
THE KNUCKLES’ ART METHOD
Vintage Adventures owners Amie and Chris Knuckles create their wood art with lasers. They usually create a digital design and then use a CNC machine where a laser cuts a slab of wood into different pieces, according to the design.
Amie paints the pieces of wood, then the couple glues the pieces together and frame it.
Eventually, the couple plans make prints of the art that will be sold at a reduced price from the original pieces.
To find Vintage Adventures on Etsy, visit etsy.com/shop/VintageAdventuresLLC?ref=shop-header-name&listing_id=1027666500&from_page=listing.
For more on Vintage Adventures vintageadventureshomedecor.com.
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While the proposed tax credit appears unlikely to get through a Republican-controlled Congress, Biden has the ability to use the CFPB to push his housing policy agenda.
An ‘unwelcome surprise’
A CFPB blog post on Friday states that families closing a mortgage “often get an unwelcome surprise: closing costs that all too often are full of junk fees.”
According to the CFPB, one measure of closing costs is total loan costs, which includes title insurance, credit report, appraisal, and origination. These costs increased by 21.8% from 2021 to 2022, reaching nearly $6,000, per the CFPB post. And, as they are fixed, they have an “outsized impact on borrowers with smaller mortgages,” it added.
The post provoked a strong reaction from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Its president and CEO, Bob Broeksmit, stated that the use of the term junk fees is “illogical” and contradicts the White House’s definition, which is “lack of disclosure of the fee being charged.”
“The fees mentioned are clearly disclosed to borrowers well before a home purchase on forms developed and prescribed by the Dodd-Frank Act and the CFPB itself,” Broeksmit said in a prepared statement.
Broeksmit added that the Bureau’s “TRID” rule in 2015 and other rules imposed in 2020 reformed mortgage disclosures and customers’ ability to read these documents.
What’s the CFPB monitoring?
The CFPB said it will closely examine three topics: discount points, lenders’ title insurance, and credit reports.
Discount points have surged in recent years as mortgage rates have risen and competition has gotten more fierce. They were used by 50.2% of home purchase borrowers in 2022, compared to 32.1% in 2021. And, despite lenders selling points to reduce rates, it “may not always save borrowers money, however, and may indeed add to borrowers’ costs,” the CFPB said.
In another criticism of housing finance practices, the CFPB said lenders force borrowers pay for their title insurance, and the amount “is often much greater than the risk.”
Regarding credit reports, HousingWire reported in December that lenders’ prices would jump in 2024. The CFPB said that the “credit reporting industry is highly concentrated” and that “these steep increases in a market that lacks competition and choice warrant further scrutiny.”
“In the coming months, the CFPB will continue working to analyze mortgage closing costs, seek public input, and, as necessary, issue rules and guidance to improve competition, choice, and affordability,” the blog post reads. “We will also continue using our supervision and enforcement tools to make it safer for people to purchase homes and to hold companies accountable.”
Broeksmit has argued for years that it’s the CFPB that has made mortgage lending more expensive for consumers. The agency announces “new legal obligations without formal process or deliberation, enforcing novel and untested legal theories, and making it very difficult for firms to understand their legal obligations,” he said in 2022. A year later he described housing policy coming from Washington, D.C. as “extreme overregulation.”
In response to the CFPB’s latest “baffling” blog post, he noted that the agency has already imposed limits on lenders’ fees. The services covered, such as appraisals and flood hazard certifications, bring efficiency to the mortgage market and benefit consumers. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA), Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac also require these services.
The MBA, according to him, is also concerned “regarding rising costs of the tri-merge credit reports” and shares the “desire to help more Americans become homeowners.”
“MBA is eager to continue working with the Biden administration in these efforts but will vigorously oppose politically motivated proposals that only increase regulatory costs, reduce competition, or otherwise make it more difficult for Americans to get the credit necessary to achieve homeownership,” Broeksmit said.
The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously. In my 2024 forecast, I put the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand will be tested at 3.37%.
This means mortgage rates should stay between 5.75%-7.25% with a baseline assumption that the spreads will be bad for most of the year. The 10-year yield has traded above 4.25% this year, but mortgage rates didn’t reach 7.25%, so the spreads have acted better than I thought they would.
We recently dodged a bullet when the 10-year yield got close but didn’t break above 4.34%, which could have led to mortgage rates back to 8% again. We have bounced off that key line several times and last week, even with jobs data and Powell talking to Congress, the 10-year yield headed lower and mortgage rates ended the week at 6.85%. The chart below shows last week’s 10-year yield trading (March 4-8).
In the chart below, you can see why I have discussed the critical levels for the 10-year yield in the past: the bottom is around the 3.80% level and the top is the 4.34% level. We haven’t broken either yet. Given our current economic data and without a new critical global event, this range should stick. It’s a plus for mortgage rates that the U.S. dollar isn’t getting stronger but slowly falling — the world can’t handle it getting more robust. Powell said that Fed policy is restrictive, so if the 10-year yield breaks above 4.34%, I expect the Fed to be more dovish as they don’t want policy to get too restrictive.
Here is a longer-term look at the 10-year yield to give you the scale of the move in recent years.
Purchase application data
As mortgage rates rose from 6.63% to 7.16% earlier this year, we had five straight weeks of negative purchase application data, something we didn’t see last year. However, that changed last week. With rates going lower, we saw 11% week-to-week growth.
Since November 2023, we have had nine positive and five negative purchase application prints after making holiday adjustments. Year to date, we have had three positive prints versus five negative prints. This is a carbon copy of what happened in 2023 when rates went higher. However, we were worked from a lower bar in home sales last year. Moving the needle doesn’t take much since we all know we have buyers ready to go and home sales are at record lows.
Weekly housing inventory data
The positive story for housing in 2024 has been the inventory growth we have seen year-over-year. Yes, I know it’s not a lot of homes, but growth is growth, people! The farther away we stay away from the savagely unhealthy housing market of March 2022, the happier I will be.
Now, one thing about the year-over-year inventory data, the seasonal bottom last year happened on April 14, which was the longest time ever to find a seasonal bottom. With this information at hand, the year-over-year comps will show more growth than a traditional year, when we would find a seasonal bottom in January or February.
Here is a look at inventory last week:
Weekly inventory change (March 1-8): Inventory rose from 498,339 to 500,579
The same week last year (March 2-9): Inventory fell from 419,419 to 413,199
The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 was 569,898
For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 971,965
New listings data
New listings data is growing yearly, but it’s still a bit too low for my liking in 2024, as I was hoping for more of a rebound because this data line was running at the lowest levels ever recorded in 2023. However, growth is growth, and if we can match spring 2022 and 2021 levels, I will be a happy camper.
Weekly new listing data for the last week over several previous years:
2024: 59,243
2023: 50,687
2022: 59,661
For some historical context, new listing data this week in 2011 was 362,248.
Price-cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — this is regular housing activity and this data line is very seasonal. The price-cut percentage can grow when mortgage rates move higher and demand gets hit. When rates fall, they go lower than an average year.
Inventory is higher than last year, and we might have found the bottom already in inventory, so as the year progresses, the number of homes taking a price-cut should increase. The goal is to see how the mortgage rate variable plays into this data line.
Here is the price cut percentage for the last week over the past several years. As you can see below, in 2022 when inventory was at all-time lows and mortgage rates were sub-4 %, the price-cut percentage data was at a savagely unhealthy low level.
2024: 30.5%
2023: 30.6%
2022: 16.7 %
Week ahead: Inflation week Is here
We are going from jobs week into inflation week when we will get CPI and PPI inflation reports. The CPI data will be interesting because every nerd in America said the same thing about the last CPI report. The report included a giant odd OER print that deviated wildly and made the data hotter than it should have. We shall see if that normalizes in this report or the next. As we all know, the apartment boom-to-bust is creating more disinflation data with apartment rents. If the inflation reports come in much softer than anticipated, we can see lower mortgage rates continue this week.