Mortgage rates hitting a century-high of 8% this month has left economists, homeowners, and prospective borrowers alike wondering when (or whether) the market will let up. Capital Economics doesn’t expect mortgage rates to fall significantly anytime soon—how does 6% or higher through the end of 2025 sound?
The London-based research firm, known for its housing market forecasting, released a revised mortgage rate forecast on Thursday, showing it’s unlikely that mortgage rates will fall below 6% before the end of 2025. Thomas Ryan, the new U.S. property economist for Capital Economics, tells Fortune: While the firm has “kept the same path for mortgage rates that we had in our previous forecast, we’ve shifted up our anticipated path for mortgage rates.”
That’s going to continue to have an adverse effect on housing affordability in the U.S., which is already at abysmal levels with high home prices and mortgage rates and declining inventory levels.
“Our new higher forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields mean that mortgage rates won’t fall as quickly as we previously predicted,” Ryan wrote in the new forecast. “While we still expect mortgage rates to decline, they are unlikely to fall below 6% before end-2025, muting any recovery in house purchase demand and sales volumes.”
By the end of 2023, Capital Economics predicts the mortgage rate will be 7.5% (versus 6.75% in its previous forecast), and drop to 6.25% by the end of 2024 (versus 5.25% in its previous forecast), Ryan says. It won’t be until the end of 2025 that we’ll see 6% mortgage rates, predicts Capital Economics, which had previously penciled in a 5% rate by the end of that year.
Higher mortgage rates tied to higher Treasury yields
The firm’s new forecast is tied to higher forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields, which affect mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is “loosely benchmarked” to the 10-year Treasury bond, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at Fortune 500 financial services company First American, wrote in a report this year, meaning that mortgage lenders tie their interest rates to bond rates. Historically, the spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury bond yield has been 1.7 percentage points (typically expressed as 170 basis points or bps).
“In simple terms, mortgage rates are priced directly from the yield on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which is a bundle of home loans sold as an asset,” Ryan tells Fortune. “When Treasury yields rise, lenders require higher yields on their mortgage-backed securities to attract investors that want to earn a higher return than the risk-free rate, which in turn pushes mortgage rates up.”
Today, the spread is at more than 300 bps with the U.S. Treasury yields briefly touching 5% this week for the first time since 2007. This, in turn, has pushed mortgage rates to their highest point since November 2000, “and is higher than we had anticipated them to go,” Ryan wrote.
When we can really expect to see rates fall
However, Capital Economics does predict that mortgage rates will fall faster than Treasury yields, albeit slowly. In 2024, the firm predicts, the 10-year yield will drop 75 bps to 3.75%, compared with a 125 bps fall in mortgage rates, Ryan says.
The firm also predicts that the U.S. Treasury yields will “fall sharply” from here and that the Fed will abandon its “higher-for-longer rhetoric” and cut interest rates next year. Even with strong GDP growth this quarter, Capital Economics expects that growth to slow—and even decline soon.
“That weakness, together with further signs of improvement in core inflation, which has already been falling since the back end of 2022, is why we expect the Fed to cut rates more aggressively next year than current market pricing assumes,” Ryan says. “As outlined in the report, that will put downward pressure on Treasury yields and mortgage rates.”
Other real estate experts and financial institutions tend to agree that we’ll continue to see relatively high mortgage rates—at least compared with the sub-3% rates of the pandemic—throughout the next couple of years. Goldman Sachs also released its forecast this week, predicting “sustained higher mortgage rates,” not dipping below 7% until the end of next year.
Other housing market experts are doubtful we’ll ever enjoy the mortgage rates of the pandemic era again.
Mortgage rates “will never return to the 2%-to-3% range they were previously,” Rhett Wiseman, a private real estate investor who owns and has invested in more than 200 residential properties in the Northeastern and Midwestern markets, previously told Fortune. In other words, the frozen housing market, with people holding on to their sub-3% rates, could be with us for a long time to come.
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JPMorgan Chase announced this morning that it had revised the terms for a takeover of beleaguered investment bank and mortgage lender Bear Stearns, upping the bid to $10 a share from just $2 previously.
Bear Stearns common stock would now be exchanged for 0.21753 shares of JPMorgan Chase common stock (up from 0.05473 shares), based on Chase’s Thursday closing price.
Additionally, Chase and Bear have entered into a share purchase agreement in which Chase will buy 95 million newly issued shares of Bear Stearns, or 39.5 percent of the outstanding stock after the issuance, for the same price.
“We believe the amended terms are fair to all sides and reflect the value and risks of the Bear Stearns franchise,” said Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase, “and bring more certainty for our respective shareholders, clients, and the marketplace. We look forward to a prompt closing and being able to operate as one company.”
The purchase of the 95 million shares, which has been approved by both companies’ Board of Directors, is expected to be completed on or near April 8.
“Our Board of Directors believes that the amended terms provide both significantly greater value to our shareholders, many of whom are Bear Stearns employees, and enhanced coverage and certainty for our customers, counterparties, and lenders,” said Alan Schwartz, President and Chief Executive Officer of Bear Stearns.
“The substantial share issuance to JPMorgan Chase was a necessary condition to obtain the full set of amended terms, which in turn, were essential to maintaining Bear Stearns’ financial stability.”
The $30 billion in special financing coming from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s has also been amended so that Chase will realize the first $1 billion in losses associated with Bear Stearns assets being financed and the Fed will fund the remaining $29 billion.
Shares of Bear Stearns were up a whopping $6.83, or 114.59%, to $12.79 in midday trading on Wall Street, revealing that investors still value the company above the new offer.
The stock had been trading just under six dollars in a prior trading session, but still stands far below its value of roughly $80 per share less than a month ago.
This is a sponsored partnership with The Entrust Group. Having more options for your retirement savings is always nice. And that’s where self-directed IRAs (SDIRAs) come in. These tax-advantaged accounts allow you to invest in real estate, small businesses, private equity, gold, oil, and more. An SDIRA differs significantly from an IRA or a 401k…
This is a sponsored partnership with The Entrust Group.
Having more options for your retirement savings is always nice.
And that’s where self-directed IRAs (SDIRAs) come in. These tax-advantaged accounts allow you to invest in real estate, small businesses, private equity, gold, oil, and more. An SDIRA differs significantly from an IRA or a 401k from a brokerage, where your options are limited to traditional assets like stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.
SDIRAs do give you more choices, but there is more work needed from you as they are a tad more complicated.
Key Takeaways
Self-directed IRAs can diversify your portfolio with different kinds of alternative assets.
SDIRAs can be set up as traditional or Roth IRAs.
There are cons to having an SDIRA, such as possible scams and the need for increased due diligence on the part of the account holder.
What is a Self-Directed IRA? – Complete Guide
So, what is a self-directed IRA?
A self-directed IRA (SDIRA) is simply an IRA in the eyes of the IRS.
But there is a big difference.
The most significant change with using an SDIRA is that you can invest in assets that are different from a standard retirement account (such as real estate, gold, bitcoin, and more – otherwise known as “alternative assets”), AND you can still use the same tax benefits as any other IRA.
Every investment and transaction is made on your request – not at the discretion of a financial institution.
Why have I never heard of a self-directed IRA?
Okay, so until recently, I had yet to hear of a self-directed IRA. You may not have either.
This is because SDIRAs are less common than the typical IRA you might already have. There are many different options for building your retirement portfolio out there, and this one requires more work on your end, so it’s less commonly used.
But, SDIRAs do have a wide range of potential. They are helpful for investors who want to diversify their retirement portfolio with assets beyond the usual stocks and bonds. In particular, they are an excellent option for investors with expertise in a specific area, like real estate or startups. They allow investors to use their existing retirement funds to invest in these types of assets to better take advantage of their own experiences.
How is a self-directed IRA different from a regular IRA?
The main difference between a self-directed IRA and one that is not self-directed is the different investment options available. SDIRAs can invest in alternative assets such as real estate, private businesses, precious metals, etc. However, standard IRAs are limited to stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.
If you’re looking to diversify your assets, then this may be a retirement account that could be great for you.
Types of self-directed IRAs
With SDIRAs, you can still receive the same tax benefits as an IRA holding publicly traded assets.
There are two main categories of self-directed accounts: traditional and Roth. Both have tax advantages, but they differ in how your contributions and withdrawals are taxed.
Traditional self-directed IRA – Your contributions are made with pre-tax dollars, which could lower your taxable income. There are also no income limits on contributions. When withdrawing the funds at retirement, you pay taxes on the distributions.
Roth self-directed IRA – Your contributions are made with after-tax dollars, so they don’t reduce your taxable income. All qualified withdrawals at retirement will be tax-free, including any gains your investments have made.
It’s essential to evaluate your financial situation and goals when choosing the type of SDIRA that’s best for you. There are also income and contribution limits to remember, mainly as these are updated annually.
How does a self-directed IRA work?
To invest with a self-directed IRA, you’ll have to open an account with a financial institution offering SDIRAs, often called a custodian, administrator, or recordkeeper.
After that, you can transfer or rollover money from an existing IRA or 401(k) into your SDIRA and look for an asset to invest in. You’ll be in charge of all asset decisions (this means that it’s your job to do as much research as you can), as well as ongoing account management.
It’s crucial to remember: per IRS rules, the custodian you choose does not help you to make investment choices. There are also other rules and regulations you must follow (you can read more about this at Self-Directed IRA Rules), such as avoiding prohibited transactions and staying within the annual contribution limits.
What Can You Invest In With A Self-Directed IRA?
A self-directed IRA lets you invest in various assets compared to regular IRAs.
Common investment choices
With a self-directed IRA, you can invest in assets such as:
Real estate – This could be rental properties, hotels, parking garages, or even empty land.
Precious metals – You can invest in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.
Private equity – This includes investing in private companies not listed on public stock exchanges, including small businesses and start-ups.
Cryptocurrencies – Some self-directed IRAs allow investing in digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Commodities – You can invest in oil, gas, sustainable energy, and more.
Prohibited investments in self-directed IRAs
While there are many new things that you can invest in with an SDIRA that you may not normally do, there are some that are not allowed. Here are some examples of investments that are not allowed:
Collectibles – You cannot invest in antiques, artwork, and stamps.
Life insurance
S Corporations
Explore over 90 alternative assets you can invest in with a self-directed IRA (and learn more about the ones you can’t) here!
Understanding a Self-Directed IRA (SDIRA)
Here are some essential things to think about when it comes to self-directed IRAs:
Due diligence
Due diligence means doing careful research and checking everything thoroughly before making an important decision. Since you are responsible for all the investment choices, you’ll want to do your homework beforehand to make sure you know all the facts and risks involved.
Legalities and regulations
You should be aware of the legalities and regulations surrounding SDIRAs. As mentioned before, certain transactions, such as investing in life insurance or collectibles, may be prohibited. There are also separate IRS deadlines for some types of assets.
In addition to the prohibited transactions listed above, it’s also essential to remember that the IRS has strict regulations concerning who can materially benefit from or transact with the SDIRA – known as “disqualified persons.” These are people like your spouse and children. For example, if you purchase a rental property, you (and your family) cannot use it for a family vacation.
Fees and expenses
SDIRAs have fees for recordkeeping and making transactions. Knowing the costs can impact how much money you make from your investments and may change your decisions.
Contribution limits and rules
Like IRAs from a bank or brokerage, SDIRAs have annual contribution limits. Be mindful of the limitations and make sure that your contributions follow the rules set by the IRS.
Withdrawal rules and penalties
You should be aware of the self-directed IRA withdrawal rules and penalties. Early withdrawals made before the age of 59.5 years may be subject to a 10% penalty and additional taxes. Additionally, if the funds are tax-deferred, you must also pay income taxes on the distributed amount.
Pros and cons of a self-directed IRA
Advantages of self-directed IRA:
Diversification – You can invest in real estate, private equity, precious metals, and other alternative assets.
Tax benefits – SDIRAs have the same tax advantages as regular IRAs. You can enjoy tax benefits based on the type of IRA (traditional or Roth) you choose.
Potential for higher returns – With a self-directed IRA, you can go after investments that might earn you more money than the usual choices. This could mean your retirement savings grow faster in the long run.
Disadvantages of self-directed IRA:
Can be more complex – Managing an SDIRA can be a more complicated process due to having more responsibility in choosing suitable investments and having to do more research. There is also less transparency surrounding alternative assets than those traded on the public market.
Higher risk – There may be higher risks, such as illiquidity, lack of regulatory oversight, and market volatility. There are also more scams in the SDIRA world because the investments differ and don’t have as much oversight.
Fees and expenses – SDIRAs often have higher fees, such as custodial, transaction, and recordkeeping fees.
How to Open a Self-Directed IRA
Setting up a self-directed IRA requires a bit more work than opening one through a bank or brokerage.
Here are some steps:
Find an SDIRA provider. Often referred to as an administrator or custodian, this entity is a financial institution that handles alternative investments and fulfills IRS-mandated recordkeeping requirements associated with your self-directed IRA.
Ensure they can hold the asset you want to invest in. For example, not all SDIRA custodians allow single-member LLCs or cryptocurrencies.
Choose between a traditional or Roth SDIRA
Create your account and pay your account establishment fee
Fund your SDIRA via a transfer, rollover, or contribution
Note: Having an experienced financial advisor can be super helpful in handling your SDIRA, as they can give you expert advice on what you should do.
The Entrust Group Review
Want to open a self-directed IRA? A popular administrator option is The Entrust Group, which has been in the business for over 40 years, with over 45,000 investors and $4 billion in assets under custody.
Opening an account with The Entrust Group makes the process easy, and you can choose your funding type, including rolling over an old 401(k), transferring an existing IRA, or making a new contribution.
Keep in mind that there are increased fees associated with an SDIRA. But, The Entrust Group is open about their fee structure, which you can find on their website here. Some of their fees include:
Account establishment fee – This one-time fee covers the cost of opening an account.
Annual recordkeeping fee – This is the fee that covers IRS reporting, recordkeeping, and admin.
Purchase and sale of asset fees – This one-time fee covers the paperwork required to execute the purchase or sale of an asset.
Transaction fees – These fees are charged for transactions.
The Entrust Group has a quick calculator that you can play around with to see what your fees are. I spent some time with it to better understand the different fees; for example, if I have one asset valued at $45,000, my one-time setup fee would be around $50, and my recordkeeping fee would be $199. If I have two assets with a total value of $100,000, then my set up fee is $50, plus the recordkeeping fees of $374. However, any undirected cash in your account isn’t subject to recordkeeping fees; so you won’t be subject to these when you’re between investments.
In summary, The Entrust Group is a reputable and experienced provider of self-directed IRA services, giving you the power to invest in many different alternative assets. If you want to diversify your investment portfolio simply, The Entrust Group may be a choice for your self-directed IRA.
Download their free Self-Directed IRAs: The Basics Guide to learn how you can take control of your financial future with an SDIRA with The Entrust Group.
Frequently Asked Questions About Self-Directed IRAs
Below are answers to common questions about self-directed IRAs.
What are the risks of a self-directed IRA?
Some risks of self-directed IRAs include the potential for fraud, and higher fees, and it may be a little more challenging to manage your alternative investments because there are more rules. And you are entirely in control of your account – so it requires more of a time investment. Also, self-directed IRAs require a custodian, and fees for these services can be higher than with a regular IRA.
Do you pay taxes on a self-directed IRA?
Yes, you do pay taxes on a self-directed IRA, but as with a regular IRA, the matter of “when” depends on what type of account you have. With a self-directed traditional IRA, your contributions may be tax-deferred, and you will pay taxes on withdrawals during retirement. Comparatively, a self-directed Roth IRA holder contributes after-tax dollars and can make tax-free qualified withdrawals.
Is a self-directed IRA better than a 401k?
It depends on your financial goals and investment preferences. A self-directed IRA can give you more control over your investments, while a 401(k) has limited investment options but may include employer-matching contributions.
How do self-directed IRA fees work?
Self-directed IRAs typically have higher fees than traditional IRAs due to the increased administrative costs associated with alternative assets. Some of the fees you may come across with SDIRAs include set-up fees, annual maintenance fees, and transaction fees.
Can I invest in real estate with a Self-Directed Roth IRA?
Yes, you can invest in real estate with a Self-Directed Roth IRA. You can also learn more about this at Self Directed IRA for Real Estate: Benefits, Risks, & Next Steps.
Are Self-Directed IRAs a Good Idea? – Summary
I hope you enjoyed this self-directed IRA guide.
While it is great that you have more options in what you can invest in, SDIRAs do require a little more work on your end.
But, if you’re looking to invest in different kinds of assets than just stocks and bonds, then SDIRAs are worth considering.
Are you interested in opening a self-directed IRA? Visit The Entrust Group to schedule a consultation with one of their experienced IRA experts.
What was your favorite thing to talk about as a kid? Maybe it was dinosaurs, or Barbie or the Magic Treehouse book series. It probably wasn’t compound interest. Getting kids excited about investing can pay off for the rest of their lives — but how do you do it?
Here are six strategies to help get kids interested in investing for good.
1. Make it relatable
Explaining what investing is and why people should care about it can feel like an exercise in futility — the jargon, the math, all the acronyms — but at its core, investing is incredibly simple. Investing means taking the money you already have and using it to make more money without having to do any additional work. When talking with kids, stay away from “Roth IRA,” “dividends” and “return on investment,” and instead focus on the basics.
The language should be simple: If you have $100 now, and you invest it, you may have $110 later. Then, that extra $10 you earned will start earning money, too. You can play around with an investment calculator to help them visualize how their money could earn more money over time.
And while it’s good to be skeptical of financial advice on social media, there are some great sources of information that may help get kids more interested in money management.
“I got started with the help of YouTube,” says Ariana Bribiesca, a content creator based in Malibu, California, who started investing at age 16 and now runs the TikTok account Ari Invests. “I spent about 10 months doing research before I decided to open up my brokerage account.”
Bribiesca got introduced to investing through social media, particularly through her YouTube recommendation page, which showcased videos about credit cards, the college application process, starting a business, and investing.
2. Have them invest in what they’re into
One way to get a kid excited about investing, according to Riley Adams, a certified personal accountant and founder of Young and the Invested in Pleasanton, California, is to help them connect with brands they like.
“Instead of saying, ‘I shop at Nike,’ or ‘I use Snapchat,’ it actually lets you go a step further and gets you involved by not just spending your money with these companies, but making money on things you already do,” Adams says.
Investing in brands kids are excited about may help them feel a more personal connection to the experience. If they’re invested in their favorite store, shopping there may feel like they’re helping make their own stock more valuable instead of just spending money.
3. Make it a game
Investing itself may not be something kids are interested in, but turning it into a game may help your kids feel more excited about it — especially if there’s a chance they can beat you at it.
“Gamification is definitely a big thing, so find little ways to make it seem more like a game, and it’s more fun to get involved with,” Adams says.
You can have regular contests to see who can make more money on their investments, with the winner earning a prize in addition to whatever profits they make; or see who can better predict what happens to the stock market based on what’s happening in the news.
Just like players can lose when playing a game, investors can lose money. Helping a child understand the risks is an important piece of the puzzle when it comes to helping them develop a healthy relationship with investing.
4. Get them some practice
If you don’t want to risk real money, you can open a paper trading account for kids, which allows them to simulate the investing experience for free.
“I practiced with fake money before investing my own money for about two months,” Bribiesca says. “I used the app Stock Market Simulator which gave me $10,000 of simulated money to invest. I showed my parents my entire journey with it and would even force them to watch a couple YouTube videos with me so they understood what I was learning.”
If the kids in your life are ready to start investing for real, you can help them open a 529 plan to help them save for college, a Roth IRA to get a jump on retirement, or a custodial brokerage account for general investing.
5. Help them make it a habit
Making a habit stick requires repeating the behavior again and again. If you’re trying to help a child stick with investing for good, they’ll need to get in the habit of doing so early.
If you give a child an allowance or pay them for small jobs around the house, help develop their investing habit by teaching them to take a portion of their earnings and put it toward investing for the future. This can help cement the habit and make it something they do regularly as they get older.
6. Talk openly about money
While some adults may not want to discuss finances in front of the kids, it may be more beneficial for children to see healthy financial behaviors and conversations modeled for them. If they never hear adults talking about investing or budgeting, or are told that talking about money is inappropriate, they may not have the tools to deal with financial conversations when they get older.
“Overall, it is important for parents to include their kids in talks about money and slowly introduce them to different topics or resources,” Bribiesca says. “It is important to include them because kids like to imitate their parents and follow their footsteps when they notice something can be very rewarding.”
Neither the author nor editor held positions in the aforementioned investments at the time of publication.
What a difference a year makes At last year’s FUSE conference, LaCentra hinted at choppy waters ahead but noted an uptick in 30-year fixed products: “Especially with what’s going on in the residential side, we’ve seen a really large increase in interest from brokers just to be able to diversify their product offerings, which has … [Read more…]
In the heart of the Pacific Northwest, the Seattle housing market is a fascinating real estate scene. Underscored by competitive pricing and swift sales, the Seattle housing market is a hotbed for homebuyers and investors alike.
With so much heat surrounding this constantly evolving market, there has never been a better time to take the first few steps toward fully understanding the nuances of owning or renting a home in the heart of the Pacific Northwest.
Stay tuned as we break down some of the most interesting aspects of the Seattle housing market and provide some examples of how the financial reality of owning a home in the Emerald City compares to renting an apartment.
The Seattle housing market
As we delve into the intricacies of the Seattle housing market, a key takeaway emerges, the median sale price of a Seattle home has experienced a decrease of 2.6% year-over-year to rest at $800,000. This adjustment, while subtle, is still noteworthy because it may signal a temporary (or longer) breather in the otherwise bustling Seattle housing market.
Despite this marginal cooling, the pace of Seattle’s housing market remains upbeat. Homes here are scooped up off the market after a mere 14 days on the market, a notable uptick from the previous year’s 17-day benchmark. This brisk pace of sales is emblematic of a persistent demand for housing in Seattle at all price points.
Seattle home sales
While the median home sale price has dipped slightly, the amount of sales tells a more complex story. In September 2023, the Seattle housing market saw a sales volume of 635 homes — a sharp 21.3% decrease from the previous year. This shift in volume may reflect a multitude of narratives, from inventory flux to economic uncertainty influencing buyer behavior.
Competition in Seattle’s housing market
In the competitive Seattle housing market, homes not only sell fast but often above the asking price, too. The current market sees homes achieving 99.9% of their listed value, with about 27.9% of them closing above the listing price. This increase in homes selling over the asking price — a jump of 6.6 percentage points from last year — highlights the vigorous competition among qualified buyers.
Seattle housing market migration
Migration trends play a role in Seattle’s housing market. The recent data shows that a striking 82% of homebuyers in Seattle are choosing to stay within the metropolitan area. Yet, for those looking to move into Seattle from the outside, the city is drawing crowds from metros like Louisville, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Conversely, Seattleites who are eying an exit tend to cast their gaze toward places like Spokane, Phoenix and Wenatchee, perhaps seeking different economic conditions or even a slower pace of life.
How climate affects the Seattle housing market
With environmental concerns increasingly playing a role in housing decisions, the Seattle housing market faces a moderate assortment of environmental risks, namely in flood and water damage.
The minor risk of wildfires and negligible concern for severe winds strike a chord with those weighing up the safety of their investments against the changing climate measures. All in all, Seattle is not as risky, in terms of environmental concerns, as many other cities on the West Coast.
Life in Seattle
Beyond the numbers, the quality of life in Seattle contributes to its market’s prowess. With high walkability, transit accessibility and bike-friendly streets dramatically lessening some of the more annoying and persistent noises that often plague life in larger cities, there’s a certain peace in Seattle that is truly difficult to find in other cities of comparable size.
Settle down in your ideal Seattle home
Seattle remains an enduring epicenter for real estate activity in the Pacific Northwest. The market’s recent dip in pricing and pace sets the stage for a complex interplay of supply, demand and economics. For those tuned into the nuances of real estate, the Seattle housing market presents a dynamic opportunity, one that calls for savvy negotiation and an appreciation for the city’s unique lifestyle composition.
Renting in Seattle
Just as the Seattle housing market has its own unique ebbs and flows, the city’s rental market does as well. The nuances of renting in Seattle offer a range of experiences, from solo living in studios to too many roommates in two-bedroom apartments, any number of renting scenarios is possible in the Emerald City.
Current rent prices in Seattle
Seattle’s rental market, as of late 2023, reveals prices that cater to a diverse audience of renters. For those seeking the compact convenience of a studio apartment, the average rent has dipped to $1,422, a significant decrease of 16% from the previous year. This downward trend presents a more accessible entry point for individuals looking to enjoy city life on a budget.
For one-bedroom apartments, the average rent rests at $2,145, reflecting a 10% decrease compared to prior figures. For those requiring more room to compose their lives — perhaps a couple or a small family — this price point offers the extra space with just a moderated increase in cost.
For two-bedroom units, the average rent comes in at $2,991, a 12% reduction from previous years. This adjustment in the rental market may resonate well with those looking to harmonize affordability with the need for more expansive living quarters.
Seattle rent ranges
The makeup of apartment prices in Seattle’s rental market reveals that 30% of the apartments hit the middle range of $1,501-$2,100, indicating a substantial segment of the market is oriented towards moderate pricing. Meanwhile, a smaller, yet noteworthy, 19% of apartments fall between $1,001-$1,500, showcasing the availability of lower-priced units that attract budget-conscious renters.
Interestingly, apartments priced at $701-$1,000 comprise a mere 4% of the market, illustrating the rarity of finding such affordability within the city limits. The absence of units in the $501-$700 range is a silent note in the city’s rental market score, underscoring the premium placed on living in Seattle.
Finding your space in Seattle’s rental market
Seattle’s real estate and rental markets are full of complexities and variations. Despite recent dips in average rent prices, providing a softening counterpoint to the competitive housing sales market, Seattle’s rental market maintains a steady rhythm of demand with just enough supply to get by.
With its strong economy, scenic charm and cultural relevance, Seattle continues to attract people from across the country and throughout the globe. Whether people are drawn to the city’s rental market as a prelude to homeownership or as a long-term lifestyle choice, Seattle is home to a range of living options that suit different lifestyles and budgets.
Does Seattle sound like the place for you? The perfect Seattle apartment is only a few clicks away.
Research and consulting firm Celent released a study yesterday titled, “Pathology of the US Mortgage Crisis,” which examines the evolution of the credit crunch from its humble beginnings as a U.S. subprime mortgage problem to the subsequent global liquidity crisis that ensued.
The Boston-based firm noted that the global credit market saw a “flight of uncertainty” over the past nine months that led to billions in associated write-downs, the fall of investment banking giant Bear Stearns, and multiple emergency rate cuts by the Fed.
Not to mention scores of layoffs and lender closures throughout the United States, including the collapse of Countrywide, Greenpoint, NovaStar, and other big names.
Celent noted that behind the mortgage crisis was the shift from an “originate and hold” mentality to an “originate to distribute” model, a veritable game of hot potato that surged in popularity in recent years.
Essentially, most originating banks and mortgage lenders only held onto mortgages long enough to sell them off to investors, promoting a higher-risk environment for loan origination.
Under this system, mortgage brokers and originating banks had volume-based incentives that weakened underwriting standards, while investment banks and Wall Street firms worked on loan performance incentives.
This disparity caused scores of low quality loans to funnel through the system and find their way into structured investments that eventually spoiled as home prices began to stagnate and fall, and mortgage defaults began to surge.
This isn’t the first time the originate and distribute model has been blamed for the mortgage crisis.
Fed Chief Ben Bernanke has called the system into question on numerous occasions, noting that a large number of high-cost mortgages were made by unregulated independent mortgage companies that sold nearly all of the mortgages they originated.
Below is a great model from Celent that maps out the originate to distribute model, revealing the fragility of such a system.
Redwood Trust and home equity fintech lender Point have closed on a $139 million bond secured by 1,577 home equity investment (HEI) contracts.
The two companies issued the first-ever securitization backed entirely by HEIs in 2021, a bet that rising home-price appreciation can benefit consumers in the short-term and investors in the long-term.
Point closed on its first bond issuance rated by DBRS Morningstar on Oct. 31. One $117 million tranche of the bonds has a single-A rating while the other at $22 million has a triple-B-minus rating.
“The financing of HEIs through the development of a liquid and efficient market for rated HEI bond issuance will prove to be a pivotal moment in housing finance, one that will bolster both homeownership and overall financial health in this country,” Eddie Lim, co-founder and CEO of Point, said in a statement.
Meanwhile, Eoin Matthews, co-founder of Point, told The Wall Street Journal that the firm expects to complete several bond deals per year.
In October, Unlock Technologies, another home-equity investment firm, and Saluda Grade, a private real estate investment firm, completed the first-ever securitization rated by DBRS Morningstar.
The rating agency, which was the first to provide a rating for the asset class, published a new methodology for HEIs in July 2023. Unison, another HEI firm, is working on its first deal, too, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The rating of those securities is supposed to attract new pools of capital to the HEI asset class, such as insurance companies and money managers who are restricted to investing in rated investment-grade securities.
Redwood sees this securitization as a major milestone to provide more liquidity to the space, allowing HEI companies to assist more homebuyers. While Americans sit on approximately $32 trillion in home equity, only 50% of homeowners can tap into that wealth.
Nomura Securities International Inc. was the sole-structuring agent for the issuance.
As 10-year Treasury yields tumbled, the average 30-year fixed mortgage fell 26 basis points in the week ending Nov. 9, the largest one-week decrease since last November.
The 30-year, fixed mortgage averaged 7.5% as of Nov. 9, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s down significantly from last week’s 7.76% and up from 7.08% the same week a year ago.
However, the gap between mortgage rates now and a year ago has narrowed, Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said.
“At today’s rates, the typical monthly payment is about $3,000, just $250 higher than a year ago,” Sturtevant said.
HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed Optimal Blue’s average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.444% on Thursday, compared to 7.576% the previous week.
“Incoming data show that household debt continues to rise, primarily due to mortgage, credit card and student loan balances,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Many consumers are feeling strained by the high cost of living, so unless mortgage rates decrease significantly, the housing market will remain stagnant.”
Homebuyers react to lower rates with uptick in mortgage demand
Lower mortgage rates helped push total mortgage applications up 2.5% for the week ending Nov. 3, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey released Wednesday.
“Applications for both purchase and refinance loans were up over the week but remained at low levels,” Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, said in a statement. “The purchase index is still more than 20 percent behind last year’s pace, as many homebuyers remain on the sidelines until more for-sale inventory becomes available.”
While some homebuyers are already jumping on the opportunity to snag a lower rate, others will wait for 2024 in the hopes of finding even lower rates and more homes on the market.
However, while rates are poised to come down next year, they won’t return to their pandemic levels, Sturtevant cautions.
“We are in a new era for mortgage rates where prospective homebuyers can expect rates to settle above 6%,” Sturtevant said.
New inflation data comes out Tuesday, giving investors more clues on the Fed’s path moving forward. According to Chen Zhao, senior manager of the economics team at Redfin, futures markets are currently pricing in a 4.5% probability of a hike in the next Fed’s meeting.
In less than two years, mortgage rates have more than doubled. At the end of 2021, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had a 3.11% interest rate, according to Freddie Mac. Now, at the beginning of November 2023, the average has climbed to 7.94%.
The picture isn’t necessarily any brighter for other mortgage types either. For an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), the average 5/1 ARM (meaning the interest rate is fixed for five years and then changes once per year after) has an annual percentage rate (APR) of 8.16%, while a 10/1 ARM comes in at 8.23%, according to Bankrate.
But will the picture look different in 2024? It depends who you ask. Some experts take a stronger view on rates falling in 2024, while others are less certain that will happen. In general, though, most seem to think that mortgage rate drops are more likely to occur toward the second half of 2024, though the change might be relatively small.
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Will mortgage rates go down in 2024?
Fannie Mae, for example, projects 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will start 2024 at an average of 7.1% and fall to 6.7% by Q4 2024.
“In 2024, do not anticipate mortgage rates to drop significantly. The current market environment leans towards stability rather than volatility and fear,” says Nathaniel Pitchon-Getzels, a buyer’s agent and listing agent at Compass.
“Before we see rates come down, it’s possible we’ll experience another rate increase. If they do decrease, it’s likely to be a gradual shift, possibly occurring at the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter,” he adds.
Rhonda Fisher, a real estate broker at Trust Equity Group and eminent domain expert with Consumer Notice, takes a similar view.
While she says she hopes mortgage rates come down in 2024, “the economic forecast suggests otherwise. With a strong employment market and inflation not decreasing as quickly as hoped, it doesn’t appear the Federal Reserve will be able to bring down rates anytime soon. The current rates are slated to continue until next year.”
Depending on economic variables like inflation, however, it’s possible that overall interest rates, including mortgage interest rates, will trend downward next year.
“If inflation and the economy weaken then we should expect to see interest rates lower toward the end of 2024,” says Fisher.
One way to get an idea of when mortgage rates are turning the corner and heading lower is to see when mortgage lenders stop making discount points mandatory. In the current environment, lenders often require homebuyers to pay money upfront in exchange for lower mortgage rates, in order for lenders to then be able to sell those loans to investors, explains Dan Green, CEO of Homebuyer.com.
“If you want to look smart and predict when mortgage rates will fall, keep an eye on discount points. Discount points will be a leading indicator for next year’s rates. When lenders start charging fewer points to buyers, that’s your signal that rates are about to drop,” he says.
He also thinks rates for different common loan types will generally move cohesively.
“Mortgage rates are generally close for the four major loan types – conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA. Over the last five years, VA and USDA loans averaged 0.25 percentage points below conventional loans, which averaged 0.15 percentage points lower than FHA loans. Buyers shouldn’t expect much change there,” says Green.
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Navigating the real estate market in 2024
If rates aren’t expected to drop significantly in 2024, what does that mean for buyers and current homeowners?
“Exactly what I always say to folks: what are your goals, what are you hoping to accomplish?” says Fisher. “For example, if a homeowner needs to make home improvements or renovations that are costly, a cash-out refinance might prove financially better than a personal loan.”
Some homebuyers also might be better off buying now than waiting to see if mortgage rates in 2024 drop.
“In the upcoming year, buyers need to be strategic and act promptly if they want to purchase a house. Waiting may lead to substantial losses in equity because property values continue to rise,” says Pitchon-Getzels.
Some sellers are also offering concessions, such as rate buy-downs in this environment, adds Fisher.
Still, it’s important to be mindful of what you can truly afford. Even if you think interest rates will drop and you can refinance later, that can be a risky strategy.
“When you buy a home, you have to expect that you’ll make its payments for the next 30 years because, even if mortgage rates drop, there’s no guarantee you’ll be eligible to refinance,” says Green. “What if you take a pay cut? What if you fall ill? What if life throws you a curveball?”
Instead, he says, “the best strategy for a homebuyer is to pick a mortgage and a payment that’s comfortable and stick with it. If the market improves and refinancing is possible, that’s terrific and lucky. But if refinancing is never an option, that’s okay, too, because the payment you’re making is within your zone of comfort.”
If you are in the market for a mortgage, be sure to shop around with different mortgage providers to see where you can get the best rate. Even a small difference in interest rates can add up to thousands of dollars in interest over the life of your loan, depending on the specifics, so it’s important to find the best fit for your circumstances.