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Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday. But all that did was wipe out last Friday’s similarly tiny rise.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely budge. However, these early mini-trends often alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
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Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.302% | 7.353% | +0.01 |
Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.757% | 6.836% | +0.01 |
30-year fixed FHA | 7.064% | 7.111% | -0.07 |
5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.888% | 8.036% | +0.12 |
Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.199% | 7.257% | +0.05 |
Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.663% | 6.737% | +0.06 |
30-year fixed VA | 7.292% | 7.332% | +0.01 |
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. |
This morning’s Financial Times reports, “While the base case remains a reduction in borrowing costs, the options market shows a 20% probability of an increase.” That means most investors think the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates this year, but they reckon there’s a 20% chance of the central bank actually hiking them. That’s new and scary.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates it has a huge influence on the bond market that does. And I very much doubt mortgage rates will fall consistently before the Fed signals that a cut in general interest rates is imminent. And a Fed rate hike is likely to send mortgage rates much higher: maybe back up to 8% or beyond.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
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This morning’s two April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) will likely be good for mortgage rates. These “flashes” (initial readings and subject to revision) are both from S&P.
Here are this morning’s actual numbers in bold, alongside the prepublication consensus forecasts, according to MarketWatch, together with the March actual figures:
You can see that the PMIs were worse than expected, which is typically good news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow’s durable goods orders for March rarely affect mortgage rates. And they’d need to contain some pretty shocking data to do so tomorrow.
Markets are expecting those orders to have risen by 2.6% in March compared to a 1.3% increase in February. They’ll probably need to be significantly higher than 2.% to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates and appreciably lower to push them downward.
Nothing has changed since yesterday concerning economic reports due on Thursday and Friday. So, I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday:
We’re due the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter on Thursday. And that could have a larger effect than PMIs and durable goods orders, depending on the gap between expectations and actuals.
But Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March is this week’s star report. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. And it could certainly affect mortgage rates, possibly appreciably.
The next meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is scheduled to start on Apr. 30 and last two days. So, the PCE price index will be the last inflation report it sees before making decisions.
And index that shows inflation cooling could change the mood at that meeting. True, it’s vanishingly unlikely that a cut to general interest rates will be unveiled on May 1 no matter what.
But a PCE price index that shows inflation cooling could help the Fed to move forward with cuts earlier than expected, which should cause mortgage rates to fall. Unfortunately, one that suggests inflation remains hot or is getting hotter could send those rates higher.
I’ll brief you more fully on each potentially significant report on the day before it’s published.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster | Q1/24 | Q2/24 | Q3/24 | Q4/24 |
Fannie Mae | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
MBA | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Here are some things you need to know:
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
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Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
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Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
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No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
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Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Source: themortgagereports.com
The recent rise of the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate, which poses a new obstacle to aspiring homeowners hoping to purchase a property during this homebuying season, could have dramatic consequences on the country’s housing market.
The national weekly average for 30-year mortgages, the most popular in the nation, was 6.88 percent as of April 11, according to data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., better known as Freddie Mac. That was 0.06 of a percentage point higher than a week before and up 0.61 compared to a year before. The national average for 15-year mortgages was 6.16 percent, up 0.1 of a percentage point compared to the previous week and 0.62 compared to a year before.
Read more: How to Get a Mortgage
On Monday, experts monitoring mortgage rates on a daily basis noted that the national average for 30-year fixed mortgages reached 7.44 percent—the highest they’ve been so far this year and close to the 23-year weekly record of 7.79 percent reached on October 25, 2023. On Monday, the 15-year mortgage rate was 6.85 percent. At its peak on October 25, 2023, it had reached 7.03 percent.
“Big one-day jump,” commented journalist Lance Lambert on X, formerly known as Twitter. “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticks up to 7.44 percent. New high for 2024.”
The rise in mortgage rates comes as homebuying season, a time when the number of homes listed for sale increases, is heating up. This climb in inventory starts in spring and normally peaks in summer before declining as the weather gets colder, marking one of the busiest times of the year for home sales. But higher mortgage rates could have an early chilling effect on the market.
Read more: Compare Top Mortgage Lenders
The median monthly U.S. housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,747 during the four weeks ending April 7, up 11 percent from a year earlier, according to a report from real estate brokerage Redfin last week. It noted that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, then at 6.82 percent, was more than double pandemic-era lows.
There’s not much hope that mortgage rates will come down soon, as the U.S. Labor Department said last week that inflation has risen faster than expected last month, at 3.5 percent over the 12 months to March. That was up from 3.2 percent in February.
“For homebuyers, the latest CPI [consumer price index] report means mortgage rates will stay higher for longer because it makes the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Housing costs are likely to continue going up for the near future, but persistently high mortgage rates and rising supply could cool home-price growth by the end of the year, taking some pressure off costs.”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, voiced concern last week over “persistent inflationary pressures” and said the bank was prepared for “a very broad range of interest rates, from 2 percent to 8 percent or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes.”
While the jump in mortgage rates appears modest, it makes a huge difference for borrowers, who might end up paying hundreds of dollars a month more on top of what’s already one of the most significant expenses in their lives.
Many might decide that they can’t afford to buy a home—which is what happened when mortgage rates suddenly skyrocketed between late 2022 and early 2023 as a result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate-hiking campaign.
Between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, a drop in demand caused by the unaffordability of buying a home led to a modest price correction of the housing market. But prices have since climbed back due to the combination of pent-up demand and historic low inventory.
While the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, these are hugely influenced by the central bank’s decision to hike or cut interest rates. The Fed left rates unchanged in March and is considered unlikely to cut them this month considering the latest data on inflation.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
National mortgage rates moved higher for all types of loans compared to a week ago, according to data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARMs and jumbo loans moved higher.
Some forecasters are rethinking the expectation that mortgage rates come down this year. Lenders price mortgages based on many variables, but overall, fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves as investor appetite fluctuates with the state of the economy, inflation and Federal Reserve decisions.
“The issue of inflation remains unsettled,” says Ken Johnson of Florida State University. “This is putting upward pressure on mortgage rates through the yield on 10-year Treasurys.”
The Fed indicated it’d cut rates in 2024, but policymakers held off at its latest meeting, citing the need for more promising economic data. The Fed has been working to bring inflation back to its 2 percent target since 2022.
The Fed meets next on May 1 — the start of one of the busiest homebuying months.
Whether mortgage rates move up or down, though, it’s difficult to time the market. Often, the decision to buy a home comes down to what you need. Depending on your situation, it might make sense to take a higher rate now and refinance later. This way you can start building equity, rather than chancing that buying a home will become more affordable.
Rates accurate as of April 23, 2024.
These rates are marketplace averages based on the assumptions here. Actual rates available on-site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Today’s average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.30 percent, up 17 basis points over the last week. This time a month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was lower, at 6.91 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay principal and interest of $685.57 for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s an additional $11.51 per $100,000 compared to last week.
Most mortgage lenders defer to the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage as the go-to for most borrowers because it allows the borrower to scatter mortgage payments out over 30 years, keeping their monthly payment lower.
The average rate for the benchmark 15-year fixed mortgage is 6.76 percent, up 12 basis points over the last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost roughly $885 per $100,000 borrowed. That may squeeze your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage would, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll save thousands of dollars over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much more rapidly.
The average rate on a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.89 percent, up 10 basis points from a week ago.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are home loans that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These loan types are best for those who expect to refinance or sell before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be considerably higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.89 percent would cost about $658 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could climb hundreds of dollars higher afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
The average jumbo mortgage rate is 7.44 percent, up 4 basis points over the last week. Last month on the 23rd, the average rate on a jumbo mortgage was lower at 7.02 percent.
At today’s average jumbo rate, you’ll pay $695.11 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s up $2.73 from what it would have been last week.
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.31 percent, up 20 basis points since the same time last week. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was lower at 6.92 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $686.25 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s an increase of $13.54 over what you would have paid last week.
If and when the Fed cuts interest rates depends on incoming economic data, such as the rate of inflation and the jobs market.
“While the majority of Fed members still expect three rate cuts this year, Atlanta Fed President Bostic is now predicting just one rate cut in the fourth quarter,” says Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage. “Not the news we want for the spring market.”
Keep in mind: The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year Treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves.
These broader factors influence overall rate movement. As a borrower, you could be quoted a higher or lower rate than the trend based on your own financial profile.
While mortgage rates change daily, it’s unlikely we’ll see rates back at 3 percent anytime soon. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
To help you uncover the best deal, get at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.
Source: bankrate.com
Frankly, however, the biggest surprise at the moment might be that sales volumes have held up pretty well over the past few weeks even as mortgage rates have climbed into the mid-7s. We’ve been talking about sales growth over the past year. More home sales are happening, but we can also see — once adjusted for seasonal patterns — that sales should be much higher now if a real market recovery were underway.
It feels like the latest macro trends will keep mortgage rates in the mid-7% range for the near term. And we’d expect that to slow home sales further. That’s why Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country each week. The data so often defies expectations or changes very quickly. Let’s dig further into the details of the U.S. housing market for the week of April 22.
When we look at the active inventory of unsold homes on the market, we can definitely see the impact of higher mortgage rates in the past month. There are 543,000 single-family homes on the market now. That’s a 3% jump from last week and 31% above year-ago levels.
The available inventory of unsold homes on the market is building quickly due to the most recent mortgage rate jumps. There are 130,000 more homes on the market now than last year at this time.
Normally, inventory is climbing at this point in the second quarter. We’re rapidly approaching the peak of the market in terms of seller listings, and as inventory builds, the sales rate will peak by the end of June. So, it’s normal that inventory is growing now.
But when you add a spike in mortgage rates that makes homebuying less affordable, that leads to fewer buyers and inventory grows. Altos data currently shows an inflection point in April. With the most recent mortgage rate jump, inventory growth has also accelerated.
This is what is meant when we say that higher rates leads to higher inventory. We are on the path back to the formerly normal levels of unsold homes on the market. A couple more years with elevated rates will get us there.
But it’s also noteworthy to point out that falling rates reverse this trend. Lower rates mean that people snap up the existing inventory.
Growing inventory is not just about slowing demand. We are also consistently measuring more sellers coming back into the market. At 69,000 new listings unsold today, that’s 3% more than a week ago and 14% more than this time last year.
In fact, there are more new sellers this week than in any week of 2023. This selling season still has two more months of growth potential. Industry professionals would love to see 70,000 or 80,000 new listings per week in May. More sellers means more sales can happen. There’s a limit, of course, as we could eventually reach an imbalance if too many sellers flood the market and too few buyers follow suit. But we’re not close to that yet.
In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the latter half of April would normally see 80,000 to 100,000 new listings in a week. Now we’re at 69,000. Obviously, elevated mortgage rates slows both buyer and seller activity. There are a lot of people who will never sell their house with a 3% mortgage.
There’s unlikely to be a flood of sellers in the next few years, but we can see steady growth. Each year with higher rates will create more inventory growth and have fewer people locked into low rates. That growth is good for the market.
The available inventory of homes to buy and the new ones being listed for sale each week are what consumers care about. If I’m buying a house, do I have any houses to buy? For homebuyers, the selection they have now is the most they’ve had in years.
Real estate professionals, on the other hand, have to care about transaction volume. How many home sales are happening? Because there were so few sellers last year, the number of sales was quite constricted. That’s starting to change. The 14% increase in new listings over the past year is a really good sign that sales can grow.
When we look at the sales rate, we can indeed see that home sales are growing. There were 71,000 new contracts started for single-family homes this week. That’s 3% more than last week and 7% more than a year ago.
There are still 8% fewer sales happening each week than in 2022. At that time two years ago, there were frantic last-minute deals getting done as mortgage rates were rising quickly. So, even though rates were up back then, sales were still strong.
But the hectic pandemic-era pace of sales had slowed, so inventory was building quickly. In 2022, the new sales rates really cratered after the Fourth of July holiday.
There are now 385,000 single-family homes under contract. That’s 5% growth compared to this time last year but is still 14% less than two years ago. New sales started this week saw 7% growth while the total number of homes under contract saw 5% growth.
It takes 30 to 40 days for the typical sale to close. The homes under contract now will mostly close in April and May. The 5% annualized growth rate is less than we’d hoped for at the start of the year, but it’s creeping up even with higher mortgage rates.
Altos Research uses direct measurement rather than seasonally adjusting its numbers. There are 385,000 single-family homes in escrow to complete a sale as of today. If you were to approximate a seasonal adjustment on this number, you would see a yearly sales pace of about 4.4 million units for April 2024. That pace is up from April 2023, but it is still running slower than the typical April. The seasonal pace is where one can observe the slowdown due higher mortgage rates.
The takeaway from the weekly new pending sales data is that even though sales continue to outpace last year, that growth has definitely slowed.
The median price of single-family homes under contract is now $398,000. That jumped by 2.4% jump this week and is, in fact, a new all-time-high, surpassing the sale prices of two years ago.
These spring weeks are indeed the time when home prices climb, so it’s not too surprising that this trend is occurring now. But we’ve also been keeping a close eye on home prices in the face of these rising mortgage rates.
The prices of the homes going under contract are 6% more expensive than one year ago. Last year at this time, home prices were lower than in April 2022. But we’re now back at all-time highs. The previous peak was $395,000 two years ago.
One thing of interest in the price data is how slow this climb has been. Compared to Jan. 1, 2024, prices are up 6.6%. In most years, the increase is closer to 10% by this time in April. So, as a leading indicator for how the year ends up, this price signal is much softer than usual.
We can also see this in asking prices. The median price for all homes currently on the market is $449,000. That’s up a fraction from last week and only 1% above last year at this time.
Asking prices can be thought of as a leading indicator for future sales prices. Homes that are on the market now will get offers in May, close in June and will be reported on in July. So, the future signals for home prices aren’t falling because of higher mortgage rates, but it certainly looks like price appreciation has slowed.
Another strong leading indicator for future home sale prices is the share of homes on the market with price reductions. If more sellers have to cut their prices now, that’s a real signal for sales that will happen in the future.
Surprisingly, given the mortgage rate changes, there is no jump yet in the share of price reductions. We’ve been watching this stat closely.
This week, 32% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. That’s actually down a fraction from last week, given a relatively strong set of new listings that hit the market and the fact that home sales are at their highest point of the year. Fresh inventory doesn’t take a price cut until after it sits for a while without an offer.
There are 3% more homes with price reductions today than a year ago. Last year at this time, price cuts were still decreasing with very tight volumes of new listings. There are more homes on the market now with price cuts than in any April on record. That shows weakness in prices, but it’s not a super high number and it’s not skyrocketing, so that implies we won’t see prices tanking anytime soon.
The takeaway here is that with the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.4%, there is still just enough sales volume to keep home prices from dropping like they did in late 2022. The current market is not changing nearly that quickly. We’ll continue to watch data on price cuts. As mortgage rates make homes less affordable, fewer offers will be made and some sellers will cut their prices. That could accelerate in the next few weeks.
Source: housingwire.com
Average mortgage rates rose very slightly yesterday. I’m afraid it’s a sign that Wednesday’s moderate fall wasn’t necessarily the start of much happier times.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today could barely budge. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.29% | 7.34% | +0.03 |
Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.744% | 6.822% | +0.04 |
30-year fixed FHA | 7.129% | 7.179% | +0.21 |
5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.682% | 7.918% | -0.01 |
Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.15% | 7.207% | +0.07 |
Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.607% | 6.68% | +0.02 |
30-year fixed VA | 7.28% | 7.324% | +0.2 |
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. |
I reckon it’s likely to be some months before we begin to see consistently falling mortgage rates. The economy is currently too robust and inflation is too warm for a sustained downward trend. And there are few signs of that changing until the summer or fall — or perhaps even later.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
There are no economic reports scheduled for release today. And the words of the sole senior Federal Reserve official with a speaking engagement, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, are unlikely to affect markets. His boss, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, laid out the central bank’s position on future cuts to general interest rates as recently as Tuesday.
Of course, mortgage rates can still move on days like today. But they’re generally driven by market sentiment or occasionally by important news that affects the economy.
Next Monday is much like today: zero economic reports on the schedule. Tuesday’s purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) could produce some movement in mortgage rates. But that’s typically limited and temporary, a description that applies to Wednesday’s durable goods orders data, too.
Things could warm up next Thursday when the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter is due.
And next Friday should bring the March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. So, it can certainly affect mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster | Q1/24 | Q2/24 | Q3/24 | Q4/24 |
Fannie Mae | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
MBA | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Here are some things you need to know:
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
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Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Source: themortgagereports.com
It’s the season of new beginnings and fresh starts: Spring cleaning, the outdoors, weddings, gardening and… real estate.
But in a housing market marked by high mortgage rates, low housing inventory and steep home prices, we still haven’t seen a typical spring homebuying season.
Though mortgage application volume is higher than it was last fall when home loan rates peaked above 8%, it’s still 10% lower than it was last year.
As temperatures go up in 2024, experts anticipate a somewhat healthier spring market, with inventory and home listings growing. So far, however, it hasn’t been such a great kickoff: In April, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage pushed back above 7% in response to hot inflation data.
But context is critical, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. “Last year was the all-time low in new listings data,” he said.
Here’s a look at how the spring market is shaping up and what buyers can do to navigate it successfully.
There are several reasons behind the rush of home listings and sales in the springtime and early summer months, according to Jeb Smith, realtor and CNET Money Expert Review Board member.
Beyond seasonal trends, the housing market is highly sensitive to broader economic shifts. Over the past two years, high inflation and surging mortgage rates have done significant damage to affordability for the average homebuyer.
From May 2019 to May 2023, average mortgage rates increased by more than 2%, causing a roughly 25% drop in home sales, according to data from Redfin. Homeowners who are currently “locked in” with low home loan rates have less incentive to sell, which keeps prospective buyers “locked out.”
Meanwhile, many prospective buyers are priced out of the market. According to Zillow, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical US home has almost doubled since January 2020. The average income needed to afford a home is now more than $106,500 — an 80% increase over four years — while the typical US household earns around $81,000 each year.
High mortgage rates also negatively impact existing housing inventory, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. Because most sellers are also buyers, homeowners would rather hold onto their sub-5% mortgage rates than take out a new home loan at a 7% rate.
This “rate-lock” scenario — with sellers reluctant to give up their existing mortgage — is starting to loosen, according to Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. Homeowners have accrued substantial equity over the last period and are more motivated to cash in on it. “Any who were waiting for rates to fall have likely given up,” Divounguy said.
Shrinking housing supply over the past several years has given sellers the upper hand. After all, you can’t buy what’s not for sale.
“In most areas of the country, we still have more buyer demand than inventory, which is typically indicative of a seller’s market,” Smith said. Because of that imbalance, many housing markets continue to be very competitive with multiple offers on homes, he said.
Yet in some areas where supply has returned to pre-pandemic levels, buyers have more of the upper hand. Divounguy said that in markets where new construction has taken off and existing inventory has recovered, price growth is slower, giving buyers better traction in negotiations.
Generally speaking, however, housing supply is still too low. “Even with home sales still trending at record-low levels, we have too many people chasing too few homes,” Mohtashami said.
In a buyer’s market, there’s a surplus of homes for sale and not enough buyers. Buyers have more options and leverage to negotiate lower prices or other concessions from sellers.
In a seller’s market, demand for homes exceeds supply. With more buyers ready to make offers on fewer homes, sellers are at an advantage and asking prices are generally higher.
If mortgage rates were to drop significantly, we’d likely see a substantial uptick in buyer and seller activity. However, 6% mortgage rates are still several months away, keeping a lid on the number of new listings this spring.
At the same time, homeseekers who need to relocate — or those getting tired of waiting on the sidelines — are starting to adjust to the new normal. Many families can’t put their lives on hold forever, and another era of sub-3% mortgage rates isn’t on the horizon.
“Buyers seem to now be accepting this higher-rate environment and are getting back into the market,” said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage. Many of them know they have the option to refinance to a lower rate when mortgage rates eventually come down, she said.
In February, new listings increased 14.8% from the prior year, the largest annual gain since May 2021, according to Redfin. Currently, there are about 25% more available homes for sale compared with 2023, adding up to around 100,000 extra single-family homes on the market, Smith said. But again, context is critical.
“Even with this increase, the number of homes for sale is still much lower than what we saw before the pandemic hit, indicating we’re not yet back to a ‘normal’ market,” Smith said.
With buyer demand outweighing existing supply, home prices continue to go up. In February, the median sale price was $412,778, which is 6.6% higher than the previous year.
Ultimately, the right time to buy a house depends on your finances, goals and timeline. The housing market has its patterns and fluctuations, but that doesn’t mean it has to dictate what works for you.
If you find a home that meets your needs and aligns with your budget, go for it. You can always refinance to a lower mortgage rate later.
But if you decide to delay buying a house, you can take steps toward having a more solid foundation as a future homeowner. By waiting, you’re giving yourself time to save for a bigger down payment, improve your credit and be in an overall better position to purchase a house, even if it’s not for several spring seasons down the road.
Source: cnet.com
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Product | Rate | Last week | Change |
---|---|---|---|
30-year fixed | 7.13% | 7.02% | +0.11 |
15-year fixed | 6.64% | 6.44% | +0.20 |
10-year fixed | 6.51% | 6.37% | +0.14 |
5/1 ARM | 6.79% | 6.60% | +0.19 |
30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.40% | 7.20% | +0.20 |
30-year mortgage refinance rate | 7.11% | 6.97% | +0.13 |
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of April 16, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Over the last few years, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed up mortgage rates from their record lows around the pandemic. Since last summer, the Fed has consistently kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Though the central bank doesn’t directly set the rates for mortgages, a high federal funds rate makes borrowing more expensive, including for home loans.
Mortgage rates change daily, but average rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7.5% since late last fall. Today’s homebuyers have less room in their budget to afford the cost of a home due to elevated mortgage rates and steep home prices. Limited housing inventory and low wage growth are also contributing to the affordability crisis and keeping mortgage demand down.
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates. Most economists predict that the Fed will start lowering interest rates later this summer.
Since mortgage rates fluctuate for many reasons — supply, demand, inflation, monetary policy and jobs data — homebuyers won’t see lower rates overnight, and it’s unlikely they’ll find rates in the 2% range again.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
The average interest rate for a standard 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.13%, which is a growth of 11 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.64%, which is an increase of 20 basis points from the same time last week. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.79%, an uptick of 19 basis points from seven days ago. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Source: cnet.com
“So all the new permits that are getting [approved], all the new lands that are getting bought now – we’re not going to see anything until 2026-27 at this point,” he said. “So we need five, six years of that market.” US mortgage rates last week topped 7% for the first time in a month, … [Read more…]
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The spring homebuying season is off to a sluggish start as home shoppers contend with elevated mortgage rates and rising prices.
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell 4.3% in March from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the first monthly decline in sales since December and follows a nearly 10% monthly sales jump in February.
Existing home sales also fell 3.7% compared with March last year. The latest sales still came in slightly higher than the 4.16 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
A modest pullback in mortgage rates early this year helped lift home sales in January and February, but rates mostly ticked up in February and March, when many of the home sales that were finalized last month would have taken place.
AP correspondent Shelley Adler reports on the spring homebuying season.
Mortgage rates have risen the past three weeks, with the average rate on a 30-year mortgage moving this week above 7% to its highest level since late November, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday.
The trend is a setback for home shoppers this spring homebuying season, traditionally the housing market’s busiest time of the year.
“Home sales essentially remain stuck because (the) mortgage rate has been stable and inventory is not really rising,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Despite the pullback in sales, the national median home sales price climbed 4.8% from a year earlier to $393,500. That’s the highest median sales price for any March on records going back to 1999 and marks the ninth month in a row that prices have risen compared to a year earlier.
The latest surge in prices reflects the heightened competition many home shoppers are facing. Consider, 60% of homes purchased in March sold within less than a month of hitting the market. And 29% of homes sold above their initial list price, up from 28% in March last year, Yun said.
“Inventory is simply not there,” he said.
While the supply of homes on the market remains below the historical average, the typical increase in homes for sale that happens ahead of the spring homebuying season gave home shoppers a wider selection of properties to choose from.
At the end of last month, there were 1.11 million unsold homes on the market, a 4.7% increase from February and up 14.4% from a year earlier, the NAR said. That’s still well short of the 1.7 million homes on the market in March 2019, before the pandemic.
The available inventory at the end of last month amounted to a 3.2-month supply, going by the current sales pace. That’s up from a 2.9-month supply in February and a 2.7-month supply in March last year. In a more balanced market between buyers and sellers, there is a 4- to 5-month supply.
That shortage of homes on the market means home sellers generally having an edge on buyers, especially those vying for the most affordable homes, which often fetch multiple offers.
The U.S. housing market is coming off a deep, 2-year sales slump triggered by a sharp rise in mortgage rates and a dearth of homes on the market. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes sank to a nearly 30-year low last year, tumbling 18.7% from 2022 as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage surged to a 23-year high of 7.79%, according to Freddie Mac.
The average rate on a 30-year mortgage got as low as 6.67% in mid January, but has been creeping higher, reaching 7.1% this week. When mortgage rates rise, they can add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, limiting how much they can afford.
Mortgage rates have mostly drifted higher in recent weeks as stronger-than-expected reports on employment and inflation stoked doubt among bond investors over how soon the Federal Reserve will move to lower its benchmark interest rate.
Home loan borrowing rates are influenced by several factors, including how the bond market reacts to the Fed’s interest rate policy and the moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to around 4.66% on Tuesday — its highest level since early November — after top officials at the Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may hold its main interest steady for a while. The central bank wants to get more confidence that inflation is sustainably heading toward its target of 2%.
Many economists still expect that mortgage rates will ease modestly this year, which could give homebuyers who can’t afford to pay all cash for a home more purchasing power.
“The 30-year-fixed mortgage rate could rise for few months to maybe even 7.5% before settling back down to 6.5% by the end of the year,” Yun said. In January, NAR forecast the average rate would drop to 6.1% by year’s end.
Economists at Realtor.com also project that the rate could average 6.5% by the end of this year.
For now, first-time homebuyers who don’t have any home equity to put toward their down payment continue to have a tough time getting into the housing market, though they accounted for 32% of all homes sold last month, an increase from 26% in February and 28% in March last year. That’s still well short of the 40% of sales they’ve accounted for historically.
Prospective homebuyers are facing competition from buyers who can afford to buy a home in cash. Some 28% of homes sold last month were purchased entirely with cash, down from 33% in February, but up from 27% a year ago, the NAR said.
Source: apnews.com
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) this week announced a new product proposal for government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) Freddie Mac that would allow the agency to purchase certain single-family, closed-end second mortgages.
This would offer borrowers an alternative way to access their home equity without surrendering a first mortgage with a more favorable interest rate than is currently available.
The proposal, published in the Federal Register, recognizes that existing borrowers “face limited options” if they seek to access equity on their primary residence, particularly if they have a mortgage rate from a loan originated during the low-rate environment of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“[A] traditional cash-out refinance today may pose a significant financial burden, as it requires a refinancing of the entire outstanding loan balance at a new, and likely much higher, interest rate,” FHFA said in its proposal. “Homeowners may also use second mortgages to access the equity in their homes, [where] only the smaller, second mortgage would be subject to the current market rate, as the original terms of the first mortgage would remain intact.”
Second mortgages are also typically offered at a lower interest rate than certain alternative products like personal loans, so Freddie Mac’s proposal is to purchase “certain closed-end second mortgage loans from primary market lenders” that are already approved to sell mortgages to Freddie Mac, the proposal states.
“In a closed-end second mortgage loan, the borrower’s funds are fully disbursed when the loan closes, the borrower repays over a set time schedule, and the mortgage is recorded in a junior lien position in the land records,” FHFA stated. “Freddie Mac has indicated that the primary goal of this proposed new product is to provide borrowers a lower cost alternative to a cash-out refinance in higher interest rate environments.”
FHFA Director Sandra Thompson explained that such options are needed in the current mortgage rate environment.
“The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes,” Thompson said in an announcement of the proposal. “Reviewing and considering comments from the public will be a critical component of our review as the agency exercises its statutory responsibility to evaluate new enterprise products.”
This is specifically designed to benefit consumers during the high rate environment, the agency said.
“In the current mortgage interest rate environment, a closed-end second mortgage may provide a more affordable option to homeowners than obtaining a new cash-out refinance or leveraging other consumer debt products,” the proposal explained. “A significant portion of borrowers have low interest rate first mortgages, and the proposal would allow those homeowners to retain this beneficial interest rate on the first mortgage and avoid resetting to a higher rate through a cash-out refinance.”
The Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992, as amended by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008, requires the GSEs to provide advance notice to FHFA of any potential actions or products they aim to pursue. This notice demonstrates that FHFA is fulfilling its mandate and seeks public comments on the proposal.
The comment period lasts 30 days from the publication of the proposal in the Federal Register, making May 16, 2024, the end of the comment period. Interested parties can submit comments to the agency on its website or via email.
Source: housingwire.com