A union is a group of workers who join together to negotiate with an employer over pay, benefits, scheduling, and other workplace policies and conditions. The process of negotiating with an employer as a unified entity is known as collective bargaining, and it gives workers some power to set the terms of their employment.
The size and scope of each union varies. For example, you may have seen the International Brotherhood of Teamsters in the news; it represents more than 1.2 million people in a wide array of occupations across the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico, according to its website. The Teamsters union represents 340,000 UPS workers, and it recently negotiated a deal with UPS after threatening a strike.
Or maybe you’ve read headlines about the Writers Guild of America (WGA) — a union representing 11,500 screenwriters — and the Screen Actors Guild and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA), which represents 160,000 performers. Both unions are on strike, meaning they’re refusing to work as a way to compel employers to agree to the unions’ demands.
How do unions work?
A group of workers interested in bargaining collectively with their employer can organize a new, independent union or join an existing union. After a group agrees to unionize, the union can negotiate a collective bargaining agreement — a legally binding contract between the union and employer.
Forming a union
To form a union, workers must take a couple of official steps to both show interest in forming a union and gain that recognition from their employer. Here’s how they can do that.
Voluntary recognition. A majority of employees can sign union authorization cards, which are forms that record a person’s interest in a union. At that point, workers can request recognition as a union from the employer, and the employer can voluntarily do so.
A majority vote in an election. If the employer doesn’t voluntarily recognize the union, but at least 30% of employees sign union authorization cards, the employees can file a petition for an election conducted by a labor agency such as the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), which is tasked with protecting workers’ rights to collective bargaining.
If the majority of employees vote to unionize, the labor agency will certify the group as a union. Then the employer is required to bargain with the union in good faith.
The NLRB conducted 1,363 elections in 2022, according to the agency’s records. Unions won 1,041 of those elections.
Joining a union
In a unionized workplace, union membership is optional. All workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement are known as a bargaining unit, and workers don’t have to be union members to be part of the bargaining unit.
Union members pay dues, participate in union activities and agree to follow union rules. Dues are used to fund union operations, including paying staff, lobbying and supporting members during a strike.
Someone who opts out of union membership may still have to pay a portion of union dues to cover the cost of collective bargaining. However, in 26 states with “right-to-work” laws, workers can’t be required to pay fees to a union as a condition of employment. Even then, those workers are still covered by the collective bargaining agreement.
An employer may work with multiple unions representing different bargaining units in its workforce. For example, public schools may have contracts with one union representing teachers and another representing clerical or janitorial staff.
Negotiating as a union
A union’s main purpose is negotiating a collective bargaining agreement. These contracts typically cover pay, benefits, time off, working conditions and worker protections.
Union members play a role in deciding what’s included in a contract. They elect union representatives, vote on what changes to make when contracts are negotiated, and approve new agreements. When contract talks stall because the union and the employer can’t agree on terms, union members might vote to strike.
What’s covered in a union contract can vary by industry.
Changes in technology are at the root of the contract changes proposed by TV and film writers. The WGA wants its contract to address the impact streaming services have had on compensation and the potential threat artificial intelligence poses to creative professionals.
For unions with members who were on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic, understaffing and safety protocols have been a common concern. Those issues have compelled Starbucks workers to unionize at more than 330 U.S. stores since 2021.
In another example, a new contract that the Minnesota Nurses Association negotiated in 2022 gave nurses a say in setting staffing levels, requiring consensus between nurses and management before any staffing reductions take place.
Unions also have used collective bargaining agreements to make “common good” demands — proposals that would impact the community beyond the bargaining unit. For instance, Oakland, California, teachers went on strike in May to secure higher pay and a better schedule, as well as a commitment from the school district to provide support for unhoused students.
How many union workers are in the U.S.?
About 14.3 million workers are part of a union, according to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS report on union membership, released in January, found that the number of unionized workers increased by 273,000 from the previous year.
Despite the year-over-year increase, the percentage of U.S. workers who belong to a union is at a record low. In 2022, 10.1% of workers belonged to a union, down from 20.1% of workers in 1983, which is the earliest comparable data available from BLS.
The BLS report gives a current portrait of America’s union workers:
About a third of federal, state and local government workers are part of a union. Just 6% of private sector workers are unionized.
Jobs with the highest unionization rates include protective services (34.6%), education (33.7%), utilities (19.6%) and construction (16.4%).
Black workers have higher unionization rates than white, Hispanic or Asian workers. In 2022, 11.6% of Black workers belonged to a union, compared to 10% of white workers, 8.8% of Hispanic workers and 8.3% of Asian workers.
While 14.3 million workers count themselves as union members, the number of workers represented by unions is actually 16 million. That’s because 1.7 million people who don’t affiliate with a union work in jobs that are covered by a union contract.
The Fed hiked its policy rate yesterday and now today, mortgage rates jumped quite a bit higher. While there are already headlines drawing a connection between these two events, they are actually unrelated. As we discussed yesterday, the Fed’s rate hike was already baked into yesterday’s rate levels. Mortgage rates actually moved lower in the afternoon!
Today was a new day, and it brought another chance for rates to exhibit their “data dependent” nature. Fed Chair Powell reminded the market that rates would depend on data, but that dependency doesn’t carry a directional connotation in and of itself. In other words, it didn’t mean rates were destined to rise today. They just as easily could have fallen if the data had been weaker than expected.
But the data wasn’t weaker, and rates didn’t fall. All 4 of this morning’s scheduled economic reports came out stronger than expected. In general, stronger econ data puts upward pressure on rates. That’s especially true in recent weeks/months and today was no exception.
The average mortgage lender was able to move back below 7% yesterday, but today’s jump was more than enough to erase that progress. Lenders are now closer to 7.125%–a number very much at odds with the 6.81% reported this morning in Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey.
As always, keep in mind that Freddie’s weekly rate number is a lagging indicator. It presents a 5 day average through Wednesday and doesn’t report it until Thursday. That’s no big deal with rates are generally flat, but it’s a very big deal when there’s a big swing in rates on Thursday itself (just like today!).
From here, data dependence continues. If the economy continues showing excess strength, traders will increasingly expect more hikes from the Fed (or at least a longer amount of time spent at the ceiling). Those expectations would translate to higher long-term rates such as those for mortgages). To make matters worse, if the data is weaker, the market will probably be relatively more skeptical at first, simply because the recent trend has been toward upside surprises. Traders would need to see some consistency in downbeat economic surprises before allowing data to exert too much downward pressure on rates.
The U.S. dollar bears a lot of responsibility when it comes to global finance: It’s the currency kept on hand by central banks and other major financial institutions around the world to make transactions and investments, and to repay debts overseas.
The U.S. dollar is also the currency in which the world prices and trades vital commodities like gold and oil. And buyers and sellers in every country have to keep large amounts of U.S. dollars on hand to pay for them.
Historians disagree on exactly when the dollar became the reserve currency of the world. Some say the change took place right after the First World War, others say it happened closer to 1929, at the outset of the Great Depression.
But all are in agreement that as the Second World War drew toward a conclusion in 1944, the U.S. dollar had unseated the British Pound as the world’s undisputed reserve currency.
The Pound vs the dollar
The U.S. dollar as we know it didn’t actually exist until 1913, under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which created the Federal Reserve System.
The new central bank was created to set monetary policy and stabilize the U.S. currency, which had been issued based on bank notes issued by a number of individual banks.
At that point, the British pound was the world’s reserve currency. Though the U.S. economy was the largest in the world as World War I started in 1914, Britain remained at the center of the world’s trade, and most international transactions took place in British pounds. Like most countries’ currencies at the time, the British Pound was backed by gold.
Recommended: What Is Monetary Policy?
World War I changed all of that. The fighting was so ferocious, so widespread, and so costly that many countries had to deviate from that gold standard just to pay their armies.
Great Britain took the Pound off the gold standard in 1919, and the pound plummeted — which was catastrophic for international merchants and banks that traded primarily in pounds. Some scholars maintain that that was when the dollar became the world’s reserve currency.
Other historians maintain that global trade, especially international debt offerings, were denominated equally in dollars and Pounds until 1929. They even point to data that shows the British Pound was regaining ground on the dollar as the currency of choice for international trade up until 1939. Then World War II began. 💡 Quick Tip: If you’re opening a brokerage account for the first time, consider starting with an amount of money you’re prepared to lose. Investing always includes the risk of loss, and until you’ve gained some experience, it’s probably wise to start small.
World War II and Bretton Woods
Although Germany didn’t surrender to the Allied nations until 1945, the outcome of World War ll was clear by the middle of 1944. In July of 1944, more than 700 delegates from 44 countries met in Bretton Woods, N.H., to negotiate and come to an agreement on the kind of economy that would emerge from the ashes.
The Bretton Woods conference lasted three weeks, and established the U.S. dollar as the currency par excellence for the world. Attendees agreed upon the Bretton Woods system, which established a number of key global economic points:
• The U.S. agreed that the dollar would be backed by gold, which was priced at $35 an ounce when the agreement took effect.
• The countries who signed the agreement promised that their central banks would establish fixed exchange rates between their own currencies and the U.S. dollar. If their currency weakened, their central bank would buy up the currency until its value stabilized relative to the dollar.
On the other hand, if the country’s currency grew too strong compared with the dollar, their central bank would issue more currency until the price fell and the relationship with the dollar returned to normal.
• Those countries also promised not to lower their currencies to goose trade. But it allowed them to take steps to increase or decrease the value of their currencies for other reasons, like stabilizing their economy, or to help with post-war rebuilding.
💡 Quick Tip: Newbie investors may be tempted to buy into the market based on recent news headlines or other types of hype. That’s rarely a good idea. Making good choices shouldn’t stem from strong emotions, but a solid investment strategy.
The dollar Since Bretton Woods
By 1971, the gold owned by the U.S. government had reached a limit at which it could no longer cover the number of dollars in circulation. That’s when President Richard M. Nixon took the step of reducing the U.S. dollar’s comparative value to gold. This led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973.
After the system fell, the countries took a wide range of approaches to how they valued their currency, and what policies their central banks would pursue. But the end of the system led to the creation of the foreign exchange or forex market, now the biggest and most active financial market in the world, with a daily trading volume of $6.6 trillion.
While the U.S. dollar — now considered a fiat currency — goes up and down in relation to other currencies every day, it is still the world’s reserve currency, with 59% of all non-U.S. bank reserves denominated in dollars, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The dollar retains its prominence not because of an international agreement, but because of a broad consensus about the size, strength and stability of the U.S. economy relative to other options. Globally, investors still see U.S. Treasury securities as an extremely safe bet, as is evidenced by their low yields.
The Takeaway
Most of the world’s trade happens in U.S. dollars. But it hasn’t always been that way. And while it’s been preeminent for about a century, the dollar’s status has changed over time.
For investors interested in understanding the world’s currencies, the dollar’s rise to prominence has implications for the U.S. economy, as well as many other world economies.
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The government shutdown continues to dominate headlines in the U.S. but the actual market reaction has been fairly muted so far today.
There will be a vote at noon on whether or not to reopen the government with funding for three more weeks. There is definitely the possibility of a mortgage rate adjustment after the results of that vote are in.
Read on for more details.
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Market Outlook 1.22.18 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Government shutdown still center stage
Unless you’ve been under a rock for the past 72 hours you’re no doubt aware that the U.S. government went into a shutdown after Republican and Democratic lawmakers failed to agree on funding by midnight last Friday.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jul. 28, 2023).
The hectic scene down in Washington, D.C. continues this morning as a vote at noon is now the key focus. If the vote passes, the government will reopen and have funding for three more weeks.
The outcome is still clouded with uncertainty as a few crucial issues remain unresolved between the two parties. At any rate, the markets aren’t really showing much concern at the moment with all the major U.S. indexes trading higher.
If we take a look at the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going), we can see that it’s just about two basis points lower from where it started the day.
Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield, so rates are flat to slightly lower right now.
Rate/Float Recommendation
Lock now while rates are low
Mortgage rates moved higher last week. There’s a lot up in the air right now with the government shutdown so it’s hard to say where mortgage rates will go this week; however, we do still expect that current mortgage rates will rise in the long-term.
Given this expectation, we believe the smart decision for anyone looking to buy a home or refinance is to lock in a rate sooner rather than later.
Click here to head to our Mortgage Builder and figure out how much you could save.
Today’s economic data:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at a 0.27 for December, which is just a touch higher than the 0.27 that analysts had expected. The 3 month moving average is now at 0.42. It’s a mixed report that isn’t doing anything for investors today.
Get the GreenLight and close in 21 days*
Notable events this week:
Monday:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Tuesday:
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Fedspeak
Wednesday:
FHFA House Price Index
PMI Composite Flash
Existing Home Sales
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
International Trade in Goods
Jobless Claims
New Home Sales
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday:
Durable Goods Orders
GDP
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Carter Wessman
Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.
After rising somewhat sharply yesterday, mortgage rates managed to find their footing on Friday’s market session. Bonds typically face more volatility risk when they have to digest scheduled economic data or major news headlines. Today offered a light supply of both (especially econ data… there was none).
As such, trading levels didn’t drift far from Thursday afternoon’s and the average mortgage lender was able to lower costs by just a hair. The average borrower would still be seeing the same interest rate that was quoted yesterday, but possibly with microscopically lower upfront costs. Note: rates were close enough to unchanged that those upfront costs could be slightly higher in some cases.
Bigger volatility is a bigger risk next week surrounding the Fed’s rate hike and the press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The rate hike is seen as a 100% certainty, so it’s the press conference that will capture the attention of the bond market (and thus, “rates”).
As with many things in life these days, it all started with an episode of the Peter Attia podcast.
In this edition, our nation’s most Badass Doctor was interviewing a guest I initially dismissed as not overly applicable to my own lifestyle. A young,excessively handsome dude who happened to be a writer with a new book out. But the headline of the episode was just intriguing enough to get me to click.
“The Comfort Crisis”
Wow, what an amazing turn of phrase, and what a concise summary of the core of this whole Mustachianism thing I’ve been trying to express for the past dozen years.
While the news headlines cry constantly about our nationwide personal debt crisis or health crisis or any other number of things that suggest that life is so hard these days, I have always seen the opposite: on average, we Americans seem to have a problem of ridiculous overindulgence and easiness in our lives, and our main problem is not recognizing it, and the damage it does to us.
So of course I had to click, and then listen to the whole two hour episode, and then buy the book, and then spend the past month reading and digesting it in small, meaningful chunks like the modern-day chunk of scripture-like wisdom that it is. And wow, am I glad I did so.
The author is Michael Easter, a former writer for Men’s Health magazine was also once catastrophically addicted to alcohol – and descended from a long family line of ancestors with the same affliction.
He was lucky to catch himself from that fall in time to save his own life, and that story alone makes the book worth reading as someone who has stood by helplessly as loved ones battled with addiction. But I think his history with overindulgence in the hollow comforts of alcohol also gives him an edge on writing about the battle between comfort and hardship on the bigger stage of life in general.
So what is The Comfort Crisis about, and how can it make all of our lives better?
The best part about this book is just what a damned good writer this Easter guy is. Like many of the most fun popular science books*, it follows a split narrative which jumps back and forth to interweave the story of an insanely difficult caribou hunting trip he joined in a remote pocket of Alaska, with the appropriate bits of science, psychology and cultural commentary that help us explain and learn from each chapter of the epic shit he had just endured. This allows us to process and apply the lessons in our own lives.
For example, have you ever wondered why the type of bored, rich suburbanites who populate the board of your local Homeowner Association and whine about unacceptably tall weeds or unauthorized skateboarding on Nextdoor are so insufferable?
Why can’t they do something better with their time?
It turns out that there’s a scientific explanation for these unfortunate people, along with most of our other problems:
The tendency of humans to always scan our environment for problems, regardless of how safe and perfect that environment is.
The book cited a study in which researchers told people to look for danger, in an environment which gradually became safer and safer:
“When they ran out of stuff to find they would start looking for a wider range of stuff, even if this was not conscious or intentional, because their job was to look for threats.”
“With that in mind, Levari recently conducted a series of studies to find out if the human brain searches for problems even when problems become infrequent or don’t exist.“
“As we experience fewer problems, we don’t become more satisfied. We just lower our threshold for what we consider a problem.“
In other words, even when our lives are virtually problem free, instead of appreciating our good fortune we just start making up shit that we can complain about instead.
And then our politicians cock their greasy, finely-tuned ears in our direction and make up policies to appease our mostly-insubstantial concerns. And they invent their own trivial “wedge” issues to get us to all bicker about our different cultures and religions, suddenly caring about things that would not have even been problems if nobody told us they were.
And there’s America’s weakness in a nutshell, and meanwhile our strength comes entirely from the times we choose not to waste our time stooping to this level.
Meanwhile, the opposite effect holds true: people who survive in rougher environments than us end up more resilient and less prone to complaining.
In a series of recent interviews, Ukrainian people living in the war zones of their occupied country were asked “is it safe to live where you live?” and a strangely high percentage still said “Yes” – not all that different from the responses of US residents when asked the same question about their own cities.
This adaptation principle also explains why some first generation immigrants tend to build businesses and wealth while their own offspring in second and third generations are more likely to become complacent and spend it down. As an immigrant myself, I can see why this is: conditions were just slightly more harsh and less comfortable and wealthy where I grew up, so I adapted to those conditions as “normal” which made the United States seem posh and easy by comparison. Which made it easier to spend less money and accumulate more.
Tree Therapy
The trap of pointless worry is just one of the many revelations of The Comfort Crisis. It also gives insightful explanations for why spending time in Nature boosts our mental and physical health, while cubicles and car driving grind us down.
There’s something in our biological wiring that responds instantly and powerfully to everything natural, in ways that you can’t get anywhere else.
Even placing a single plant into a hospital room will measurably improve the recovery of almost all patients from almost all ailments. So can you imagine the power of the medicine you are inhaling if you step into a real, living forest? And what if you spent several hours there, or even several days?
Later, we get lessons on our human adaptation towards the ratio of effort to reward:
It’s proven the harder you work for something, the happier you’ll be about it,”
And our bizarre natural aversion to physical exertion:
A figure that shows just how predisposed humans are to default to comfort:
2 (two).
That’s the percent of people who take the stairs when they also have the option to take an escalator.
Which is remarkable, given the absolutely insane cost this tendency imposes upon us.
Moving your body, even a bit, has enormous benefits – again to almost all people towards reducing the probability and severity of almost all diseases. So can you imagine the benefit of moving your body for several hours per day in a natural environment, and including heavy load bearing and bits of extreme exertion?
These things are not speculative pieces of alternative medicine. They are known, easily and reproducibly tested, and proven to be the most effective things we can possibly do with our time.
So why, the actual fuck, are people still sitting inside, watching Netflix, driving to work, and then driving to the doctor’s office to get deeper and deeper analysis of a neverending series of exotic and mysterious and unsolvable problems with their physical and mental health?
We should at least start with the stuff we know is essential – maximum outdoor time every day, heavy exertion including with weights, minimal time spent sitting and driving, and minimum junk food, sugar, and alcohol. You definitely don’t have to be perfect, but just understand that these are the big levers for physical and mental health.
Only then, once you reach these minimum basic things for human survival, should you expect that more exotic and niche medicines and treatments are the only course of action.
By all means, follow your doctor’s orders and don’t just dump all of your medications down the sink because of this MMM rant. But at the same time, realize that the stuff that is hard and uncomfortable is very likely to be the stuff that improves your life the most.
It’s all the stuff that Mr. Money Mustache has been telling you since 2012, but with more detail and less distraction. This book is a concentrated packet of advice for solid living.
Real Life Inspiration from the Good Book
In a happy coincidence, I happened to be in the middle of some hard stuff** of my own as I worked my way through The Comfort Crisis and I found the perspective quite useful and transformative to apply hot off the press.
Normally somewhat of a homebody, I had embarked on a solo journey for some Carpentourism deep in the mountains of Southwestern Colorado. I had my whole life shrunk down into the new Model Y including food, bed, and the necessary tools and materials to tackle a pretty long laundry list of tasks on two different construction projects (fixing up a mini-resort property in Salida, and starting construction on a small cabin in Durango)
The trip immediately took a turn towards the dramatic as I climbed into the mountains and drove straight into the most torrential rainstorm I have ever seen, then accidentally broke a traffic law in a remote mountain town right in front of both of the local police officers ($115 fine and two points off my license), then five minutes after that had a small pebble hit my brand-new windshield which instantly spread into a crack that spans the whole thing, all before finally limping into Salida to unpack and get started on the work.
“Big deal”, I can already hear you saying, “Retired man experiences two minor incidents while taking a vacation in his luxury car.”
And you’re right, and that is exactly my point.
My life is so stable and comfortable that even these two miniature challenges threw me off balance, and I arrived in a slightly bummed and stressed-out state. But I still knew that in the bigger picture, they are good for me if I accept them as I accept them as the lessons they are rather than choosing to continue to worry about them.
As the trip went on, more things happened, almost as if The Comfort Crisis book were trying to prove a point. I drove three hours deeper into the mountains and up the steep dirt road to arrive at my second friend’s piece of land – a plot of forest in the mountains just outside of Durango.
My work days in that high desert environment in the peak of summer were hot and physically demanding. It was hard to keep my tools, and my food supply in the cooler, and myself protected from the scorching sun (and a strange neverending blizzard of tree pollen) while still getting the job done. There was no indoor plumbing and we had to be very careful with our limited water supply. And then at the end of each day I had to reshuffle everything and set my car back up as a bedroom and crawl in for the night. Alone and far from home.
But instead of feeling depressed as I experienced this constant hardship, the opposite thing was happening: I felt more alive and more badass with each passing day. I got better at being a feral forest man.
One day, my co-builder and I decided to take the afternoon off and head to the wild, remote Lemon Reservoir for some paddleboarding. We didn’t bring our phones or any other conveniences or amenities – just two boards and the minimal clothing required for swimming. And we headed out into a stiff headwind and little whitecap waves, laughing at the freedom of the experience.
It was hard, and slightly scary, as we got further and further from the shore. Progress was slow even with serious paddling, and we didn’t have any particular plan beyond the spirit of “let’s GO!”
But again Michael Easter was there whispering in my ear, saying,
“Is this difficult, Mustache? GOOOOoood! Then you’d better keep going!”
So we did. And we got way out into that lake, to a point where the water was shielded from the wind by the mountains on the other side. And it was awesome.
We cruised over to the shore to explore a particularly scenic meadow, coated with the softest green mossy grass and exuberantly colored wildflowers, and set at an impossibly steep angle. And damn I wished that I could have taken pictures, but in a strange way this forced me to burn that spot more thoroughly into my memories using my own senses instead.
Then we headed back out into the center of the lake, set down the paddles, and just laid down on our boards to let the wind and the waves take us back towards the far end of the lake where we had started. And what a strange, serene feeling it was, floating on just a tube of air over two hundred feet of cold blue water, feeling like a jungle man with no cares and no plans and no material possessions. It could have been scary, but instead it was one of the best and most relaxed moments of my life.
Eventually, this week of forest living and exertion had to come to an end so I could get back to my own town to be a Dad again. But it ended with a final reminder of the principles of the Comfort Crisis – after so many days relatively extreme work and a relatively sparse food supply, I had grown used to a healthy background hunger. Which is yet another thing that we are meant to experience as humans – being satisfied and free from hunger all the time is neither normal nor healthy.
But when my hosts took me out on the town for a final night thank you dinner at the Mexican restaurant, the immense Burrito platter I consumed turned out to be the most delicious meal of my life.
Purposeful Hardship vs. Purposeful Spending
There has been a lot of talk directed at the FIRE community recently about how bad we are at spending our money, and how we all need to loosen up. And there’s a small amount of truth to it, as my local friends Carl and Mindy recently admitted during a grilling on the Ramit Sethi podcast.
But we also need to keep this whole idea of excessive comfort in mind, and the damage it does to the natural human condition.
It’s great to spend money on adventures and improving yourself, being generous to others, and making the world a better place.
But it’s also way too easy to fool yourself into thinking you “want” things that just make your life easier and easier.
So your job is to catch yourself before this happens, and learn to keep things challenging, even as you upgrade the rest of your life experience.
In other words: buy yourself better tools, not softer chairs.
—-
* Another great book that follows this style is Wired for Love by neruroscientist Stephanie Cacioppo – highly recommended for reading in parallel with a lover, whether new or old.
** not actually hard by reasonable human standards, but it seemed hard by my comfort addicted first world standards
The American dream of homeownership is getting further out of reach for many Hoosiers.
As pandemic-era supply shortages began to return to normal, home prices fell, giving prospective homebuyers hope they could find something affordable. But those hopes were dashed for some who found they could not pay the high mortgage rates, which are currently more than double pandemic lows.
According to Paul Schwinghammer, former president of the Indiana Builders Association, markets will bounce back eventually. But when prices return to “normal,” many will still be unable to afford the investment that sustained previous generations.
“The days of a brand new home at $200,000 are probably very much in our rearview mirror,” Schwinghammer said.
As potential homeowners are pushed into becoming renters due to high mortgage rates, Schwinghammer said the thriving rental market is not the silver bullet to the housing market some think it is.
“That’s not the American dream,” he said.
Homeownership is increasingly expensive
Housing has become more expensive overall in the past several decades.
In 1950, Hoosiers made less — the median household income was $2,827, or about $30,000 in today’s dollars — now the median household income is $61,944. But housing prices have zoomed past that growth.
In 1950, the inflation-adjusted cost of the median home value was around $70,000. Today, the median listing price is $218,000, according to the state housing dashboard. In other words, the cost of housing has tripled, clearly outpacing wage growth in Indiana.
The cause of this gap is hotly debated. Some argue it is due to a decreased supply of housing — in Indiana, 16.8% of existing housing was built prior to 1940, and the percentage of homes built in the 2010s makes up the smallest slice of the housing pie at just 5.3%.
Experts point to the 2008 housing crash as a major factor in the building slowdown. After the crash, the membership of the Indiana Builders Association fell from 7,200 to 3,000, and the industry has been cautious ever since.
While building picked up pace in response to pandemic-driven demand, Indiana still has a 1.04% shortage of housing stock according to FreddieMac — the largest of all surrounding states.
Density, zoning and community opposition
At the most basic level, a housing unit cannot be cheaper than the raw cost to build it. During the pandemic, supply and demand saw timber, copper and other building materials spike in price, which was exacerbated by high labor costs. Schwinghammer argues this raw cost can be further increased by municipal regulations surrounding lot size, materials and aesthetics.
“That’s all well and good, except you’re ruling out homebuyers,” Schwinghammer said.
For affordability advocates, a relatively simple solution is increasing the amount of homes that can be built in an area by reducing lot size. This allows more homes to be built, increasing supply, all at a lower cost to builders, which are hopefully passed onto consumers.
But in practice, housing density is fiercely contested. Examples of density can range from apartment complexes to duplexes, which can be impossible if an area is zoned for single-family use. Other times, things like parking space requirements can thwart density attempts.
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But overwhelmingly, the biggest opposition to denser housing can come from neighbors and community members, whether it’s an apartment complex in Broad Ripple or a controversial zoning change to allow for multifamily housing in certain Bloomington neighborhoods. In fact, a survey of New York developers found that the majority of opposition to developments came from residents.
Ultimately, Indiana joins most of the country in having high rates of single-family detached housing, with the housing type making up 73.1% of all housing in Indiana, according to the state housing dashboard.
A shortage of affordable housing
While housing supply remains low in general, low-income Hoosiers are facing an even bigger gap when it comes to affordable housing supply. According to a Prosperity Indiana report, the state is 120,796 homes short of affordable and available rental homes, which means there are only 39 affordable units available for every 100 low-income renter households. The numbers show Indiana is performing worse than the regional average.
“Indiana is increasingly out of step with its Midwest peers when it comes to affordability and stability,” Andrew Bradley, policy director at Prosperity Indiana, said.
One method of helping low-income renters is Section 8 housing, a federal program that allows income-qualifying individuals to pay subsidized rents. But the program often fails to meet the demand — in Indiana, people are often on waitlists for three to five years before they can get housing, and sometimes the waitlists themselves are closed. There are currently seven waitlists open on the Indiana Housing and Community Development Authority website, spanning only about a third of counties.
With state and federal assistance so hard to find, some municipalities have attempted to fill the gap in affordable housing through local regulations.
In Bloomington, where housing is the most expensive in the state, local officials attempted to implement inclusionary zoning in 2017. Inclusionary zoning is a type of policy that requires developers to include a certain percentage of affordable units in their projects instead of trying to individually negotiate more affordable units through incentives.
That same year, the Indiana General Assembly banned municipalities from doing so, putting a direct halt to the city’s plans. Today, Indiana preempts municipalities from enacting four different types of equitable housing policies. In addition to inclusionary zoning, these include short term rentals, source of income nondiscrimination policies and rent regulation. Indiana is the only state in the country to prohibit all four policies.
Bradley said Indiana’s Housing Task Force is focusing too much on building new homes instead of sharing a focus on strengthening protections for tenants and improving current housing stock. He said this is partly due to a lack of representation of everyday Hoosiers on the task force.
He referenced Senate Bill 202, bipartisan legislation focused on tenant protections that was later stripped down to a study bill, as an example of the priorities of the legislature. The bill did not end up passing the House, and was not selected as a summer study topic.
“Suppliers of new housing have dominated the conversation at the Statehouse,” Bradley said.
Homebuyers suffer from high rates
Although commodity prices have decreased 10% across the board, Schwinghammer said, homebuyers are not seeing true relief due to high mortgage rates, which currently hover around 7%. Although mortgage rates have spiked as high as 16% in previous decades, the current rate is higher than pre-pandemic rates of around 4% and pandemic lows of 3%.
Part of this is due to the Federal Reserve’s sharp hikes in interest rates in order to combat inflation.
Ultimately, Schwinghammer said it would take 33% of the average person’s wage to begin homeownership — resulting in the highest debt to income ratio since 2007. Housing is effectively the least affordable it’s been in nearly two decades, he said.
As potential homebuyers are shut out of the market, builders have turned to the build-for-rent phenomenon sweeping the country in order to keep busy. BFR involves communities of single family rental homes that people can live in without making a purchase, allowing people to avoid interest rates.
Schwinghammer said BFR, which once took up 3% of the market, is now 15%.
As people struggle to afford new homes, pre-existing — and often cheaper — homes are selling less because homeowners don’t want to trade in their lower rates for the current 7% interest rate.
But the market is cyclical by nature, Schwinghammer said, and interest rates will likely be declining in a year.
“The natural ebbs and flows of the market will allow that to happen,” he said.
Former President Donald Trump has not made his real estate great again.
Trump has dominated the headlines recently, as he announced his intention to run for office again and then became the first former commander in chief to face criminal charges. But the polarizing politician and reality TV star is first, and perhaps foremost, a real estate mogul. And the past few years have not been kind to his sprawling residential real estate portfolio.
While home prices across America generally rose quickly during the “pandemic pump” housing market, sale prices at the properties listed on the Trump Organization’s website have either declined or appreciated at a slower pace than the local markets they’re in.
To be sure, the COVID-19-era real estate market will be one for the history books, defined initially by ultracheap mortgages, the liberation of newly mobile Americans who could pursue “remote work” away from their abandoned offices, and a continued housing shortage that all pushed home prices up in dramatic ways. The price gains have begun to correct in some areas, but in large part, historically high prices appear to have stuck.
But Trump’s real estate brand hasn’t benefited as much from the favorable housing market. Price appreciation for condos in properties listed on the Trump Organization’s website has been lower both in the luxury real estate and overall housing markets.
For example, the median condominium sale price in the U.S. rose 38% between 2019 and 2022, according to CoreLogic data. But over the same period, the median sale price at Trump Organization properties declined 14%. (The properties Realtor.com® analyzed were all condos.)
And while the price changes varied around the country, his condos didn’t outperform any of the local markets where they’re located.
Some local experts believe the price declines are related to the former president’s controversial politics, especially since most of his properties are in Democratic-leaning areas. Since he ran for office, his name has been pulled off some of his prime real estate holdings in major cities.
“A lot of people have said the buildings are great,” says Dan Neiditch, the president of River 2 River Realty in New York. “But when they have the Trump name on the buildings, it’s all about branding. And when that’s the case, you live and die by your brand, by your name.”
Trump was recently charged with 34 felony counts related to hush money payments made to an adult film star, is under investigation for election interference in Georgia, and is facing multiple lawsuits. That could also affect his real estate holdings, especially in places where the former president isn’t popular.
To come up with our findings, we pulled home sale records from CoreLogic, a real estate transaction data provider, for properties listed on the Trump Organization’s website. Then we compared them with condo sale prices for the counties where those properties are located. Because the CoreLogic data is not perfect, we also excluded transactions that appear to have erroneously high and low transaction amounts recorded (likely data entry mistakes).
While all of the Trump Organization’s condo projects were included in the national numbers, Trump real estate markets with fewer residential units (including Connecticut, Hawaii, and Westchester, NY) are not detailed in the pull-out sections below.
We used 2019—the year before pandemic fluctuations roiled U.S. housing—as a starting point/benchmark for our calculations.
Note: It’s unclear if every property listed on the Trump Organization’s website is owned by the organization. The Trump Organization is a privately held corporation, so it isn’t required to disclose the specifics of its real estate holdings to the public. And even though the Trump name might prominently grace a building, it doesn’t mean that the organization owns the property. The former president licenses his name for a host of different things, including real estate and consumer products.
The Trump Organization did not respond to a request for comment.
For decades, Donald Trump made a name for himself as a New York City real estate celebrity and tabloid fixture. The Big Apple was his launching pad, where the Trump Organization began developing residential properties in the early 1980s. And it’s still where his company has the most buildings.
He announced his first run for the presidency, in 2015, in his iconic Trump Tower on 5th Avenue, where he rode down a golden escalator.
But in the past few years, the organization’s Manhattan properties have fallen behind the competitive Manhattan condo market.
In 2022, the median sale price for all of the organization’s New York City properties combined was about $1.75 million. Within the past 10 years, that figure hit a high point in 2015, at $2.3 million, and a low in 2020, at around $1.4 million.
Since just before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trump Organization’s prices are down about 16%—far behind the roughly 11% price growth for all condos in Manhattan over the same period.
The list of Manhattan buildings listed on the organization’s website includes the Trump Tower, in Midtown, and Trump Parc, on the southern edge of Central Park. On the Upper West Side, the organization has six buildings that make up Trump Place, situated along the Hudson River. Three are apartment buildings, which were not included in this analysis, and three are condominium buildings. Residents voted to remove the Trump name from the buildings in 2019. There is also Trump International Hotel & Tower, on Central Park West. In Midtown East, the organization owns Trump World Tower, looking onto the East River, just across the street from the United Nations headquarters. And on the Upper East Side, the organization owns Trump Park Avenue, Trump Palace, and 610 Park Avenue.
Despite the successful efforts to remove the Trump branding from several of his New York properties, much of the Trump residential real estate is still highly valued among certain buyers.
According to luxury real estate broker Dolly Lenz, the properties themselves and their management are second to none.
“The management of the properties—whether it’s Trump Tower, Trump International, Trump World Tower—are some of the best-run buildings in New York,” she says. “They choose the best doormen, the best concierges, so the service is top quality.”
But many of the Trump Organization’s properties are older and have trouble competing with the newer buildings, which offer more modern designs, layouts, and amenities. Trump Tower opened in 1983—40 years ago.
For some local experts, it’s politics that have caused the lagging prices.
“New York and New Jersey are majority-Democrat states. I believe the prices of Trump’s properties take a hit just because of the politics of the people in the area,” says Neiditch, of River 2 River Realty. “We’ve had people who lived there, who said, ‘Hey, we want to sell. We don’t want to live in a building where that name’s on the outside.’”
Access to Trump Tower, which was more restricted during Trump’s presidency due to heightened security and Secret Service activity, also likely affected the value of the units in the bellwether building, says one real estate expert, who asked not to be named.
Fed up with the backlash against him and his politics, Trump officially left New York. Since 2019, the former president has called the purple state of Florida home. He now resides in his oceanside Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach.
The Trump Organization has residential properties in and around Miami, including Trump Grande, Trump Tower Sunny Isles, and Trump Hollywood.
The Trump-branded properties in Florida’s Miami-Dade and Broward Counties appreciated by about 15% between 2019 and 2022, after first dipping in 2020, the biggest price gains of any location analyzed.
But prices shot up much higher in Florida during the pandemic as the Sunshine State saw an influx of companies and new residents. In the Miami-Dade and Broward markets where Trump properties are located, the median condo sale price has increased by more than 50%, going from just under $200,000 in 2019 to just above $300,000 in 2022.
And for the luxury condo segment in the same area (the upper 10% of sales by price), which is closer to the price range of the organization’s properties, prices grew by more than 60% over the same period.
Trump International Hotel & Tower’s opening in Las Vegas in 2008 marked the organization’s first expansion into the western U.S. But condo sale prices in the building have substantially lagged behind overall Las Vegas condo price appreciation.
The median sale price at Trump International Hotel & Tower took a significant hit in 2020, dropping from $305,000 to $214,500. Since then, the prices rose but were still down about 8% below pre-pandemic prices.
Meanwhile, in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and the surrounding cities, the median condo sale price rose by more than 50% from 2019 to 2022.
June Stark, a real estate agent and broker at The Stark Team–Elite Realty, in Las Vegas, blamed pandemic restrictions as one of the reasons that Trump property prices dropped. Reduced tourism affected the building, which is a combined hotel and condo tower.
“The building itself is beautiful, probably the best-maintained hotel and condo tower in the city,” Stark says, noting that she was among the first agents to sell the residences.
Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago looms large in the city, with its height, distinctive style, and prime location, but the sale prices have taken a dive.
At 98 stories and reaching 1,388 feet, it’s the seventh-tallest building in the nation and second in Chicago (behind the Willis Tower, formerly known as the Sears Tower). The building’s off-centered, tapering spire is hard to mistake, but it’s the 20-foot-tall and 141-foot-wide “TRUMP” sign on the building on the northern bank of the Chicago River that informs anyone who passes by who owns the building.
But while the building’s prominence is unquestionable, the median sale price for residences there dropped by almost half in 2020 alone—going from just below $1.5 million the year before to $750,000. Since then, prices have come back some, but at $1 million in 2022, the median sale price is still down more than 30% compared with before the pandemic.
During the same three-year period, 2019–22, the median condo sale price in Cook County, which includes most of the Chicago area, rose about 12%. But for additional context, condos priced closer to Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago, those within the top 10% of sales by price for Cook County, also saw a big drop in prices in 2020, and an overall price decline greater than the Trump Organization’s building.
Across the Hudson River from the Trump Organization’s Manhattan properties is 88 Morgan Street Condominiums, formerly known as Trump Plaza Residences, in downtown Jersey City. The 55-story building, developed by the organization in the late 1980s, provides a sweeping view of the Manhattan skyline and the Upper Bay.
But 88 Morgan Street has not seen the same price gains as condos nearby. The median condo price in Hudson County, NJ, which includes everything from Bayonne to North Bergen and from the Hudson River across the Hackensack River to Kearny and Harrison to the west, saw modest appreciation during the pandemic, rising by about 14% from 2019 to 2022.
In Jersey City, condo sale prices at 88 Morgan Street rose only 4%.
“I know in those buildings in New Jersey, there have been fights about taking his name off,” says Neiditch, of River 2 River Realty, “but that’s been going on since back in 2016.”
Some remarks made by Secretary Treasury Steven Mnuchin are influencing the direction of the markets today and putting some upward pressure on mortgage rates.
We’re not talking about a strong surge but there is a notable push higher right now. The good news is that mortgage rates are still relatively low so if you’re looking to purchase or refinance now is a good time to do it. Read on for more details.
[embedded content]
Market Outlook 1.22.18 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Rates move higher
Mortgage rates are on the rise today. The big news story dominating headlines right now comes out of the World Economic Forum in Davos where Secretary Treasury Steven Mnuchin made several comments that caught the eye of financial market participants, most notably that a “weaker dollar is good for us [the U.S.] as it relates to trade and opportunities.”
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates (Jul. 21, 2023).
He continued, stating that “Longer term, the strength of the dollar is a reflection of the strength of the U.S. economy and the fact that it is and will continue to be the primary currency in terms of the reserve currency.”
His comments caused the dollar to slip down to a three-year low, and is pushing up long-term Treasury yields. If we take a look at the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going), we can see that it’s up about four basis points today to 2.65%.
Mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction as the 10-year yield and are similarly dealing with some upward pressure today. Rates have been on the rise for several weeks now and are expected to continue rising throughout 2018.
Rate/Float Recommendation
Lock now while rates are low
While mortgage rates are definitely moving higher, they’re currently still at levels that are considered low on a historical perspective. If you’re considering refinancing your current mortgage or buying a new home, our recommendation is to take action sooner rather than later in order to try and get the best rate.
Click here to head to our Mortgage Builder and figure out how much you could save.
Today’s economic data:
FHFA House Price Index
Home prices moved up 0.4% in November. That puts the yearly change at 6.5%.
PMI Composite Flash
The PMI composite flash hit a 53.8 in January. Manufacturing hit a 55.5, while services came in at 53.3.
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales for December hit an annualized rate of 5.570 M. That’s a monthly drop of 3.6%, bringing the year over year change to 1.1%.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Crude oil: -1.1 M barrels
Gasoline: 3.1 M barrels
Distillates: 0.6 M barrels
Get the GreenLight and close in 21 days*
Notable events this week:
Monday:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Tuesday:
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Fedspeak
Wednesday:
FHFA House Price Index
PMI Composite Flash
Existing Home Sales
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
International Trade in Goods
Jobless Claims
New Home Sales
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
Friday:
Durable Goods Orders
GDP
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Carter Wessman
Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.
2022 was a bad year for investors. See the red lines in the graph below? …that’s 2022!
Back in October (around what turned out to be the bottom of the market) I wrote:
2022 is, by far, the worst year for stock/bond portfolios since 1950. We know that stocks can, and will, drop 20%+ in a year. But the fact that bonds are also down 15%+…that’s different.
Now, the real question: what should you do about it?
Should you stop investing? Stocks and bonds are both down…so jump ship altogether?!
No. Definitely not. Remember, “the true cost of long-term investing is psychological.” It hurts to see your portfolio value drop. I know. But success comes from enduring that pain and, if you can, leaning into it. Keep investing.
Should you sell your bonds?
No. It’s too late for that anyway. The leading indicator for future bond returns is the current interest rate. Having bond rates at ~4% right now is a strong signal that you’ll achieve ~4% returns on near-future bonds.
So…should I just sit here and take it?! That’s not advice!
Remember what John Bogle famously said:
My rule — and it’s good only about 99% of the time, so I have to be careful here — when these crises come along, the best rule you can possible follow is not ‘Don’t stand there, do something,’ but ‘Don’t do something, stand there!’John Bogle
Don’t do something? Stand there?!
It feels almost inhuman, right? We’re biologically wired for action. We want to do something!
You can consider something like tax-loss harvesting or rebalancing. But you should not consider abandoning your long-term investing plan.
That’s the difference between an emotional investor who reacts to their gut and a rational investor who follows logical rules. Your gut wants to end the pain…to do something. But logic suggests you do otherwise. Will you succumb to your gut? Or listen to the combined logic of many investors far wiser than me or you?
I’m listening to the wise guys.
2022 is a uniquely bad year. It’s understandable to feel glum about it. But you don’t need a uniquely special reaction. Stay the course. Just keep buying. Let the markets and your portfolio recover in the long run.
From the article: Nowhere to Hide: Why 2022 is a Uniquely Bad Investing Year
Back to 2023. Yes, I’m here today to say:
Just kidding! The truth is it’s a little too early to say I told you so. One bad year of investment performance (2022) shouldn’t ruin our moods, and a half year of great performance (2023) shouldn’t make us over-exuberant. We might not be out of the woods completely. I just don’t know. And neither does anyone else.
But if you allowed 2022 to sour your puss and you chose to abandon your investment plan…yikes! Your results aren’t looking too good.
The chart below shows the S&P 500 (dark) and a 60/40 portfolio (light) from October 12, 2022 (the market bottom) to today (7/20/23).
The S&P is up 29% in 9 months. The conservatively diversified 60/40 is up 19% in that period. If you abandoned your portfolio at the end of 2022 and missed those gains…again, I say yikes.
This is Example 1A of why you should stay the course. The headlines at the end of ’22 and the beginning of ’23 were awful. The stock market was taking a dump, the economy was surely headed for recession, and Barbara Walters died.
July 2022, Bloomberg: “Wall Street Says a Recession is Coming. Consumers Say It’s Already Here.”
September 2022, The World Bank: “Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Rises Amid Simultaneous Rate Hikes”
November 2022, CNBC: “Bezos urges consumers and business owners to reduce risk in the face of a likely recession.”
December 2022, NPR: “Barbara Walters, trailblazing journalist, has died at age 93.”
January 2023, Wall Street Journal: “Big Banks Prepare for a Recession”
Who would voluntarily invest in those headwinds?
I know who! Someone who understood market history, had a long-term mindset, and detached emotion from their financial decisions. Not easy, but very possible.
A bunch of The Best Interest readers did phenomenally well these past 9 months. Not because they’re stock-picking wizards, but instead because they buy a diversified set of income-producing assets month after month, then hold those assets for the long term.
Further reading: How I Invest
Investing won’t always feel good. But the times that feel bad are often the best, most important times to stay the course. We’ll never know in the moment, and won’t find out until sufficient time passes. But with the benefit of hindsight, we usually realize, “How about that…the time that felt terrible was the market bottom, and we’ve only gone up from there.”
That’s the lesson so far in 2023.
That lesson might pivot tomorrow. I just don’t know.
But that’s the point. The exact point. I just don’t know. Neither do you, nor the experts writing the headlines.
And that’s why I’ll continue to stay the course.
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 6500+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
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